Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Kelvin Davidson: Cotality Chief Property Economist on stabilising property profits and

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Kelvin Davidson: Cotality Chief Property Economist on stabilising property profits and · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Homeowners holding on to their properties for the longest period
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  Speaker 1: on record. Properties resold for a gain had been held
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  Speaker 1: on to for a median of ten point one years,
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  Speaker 1: while those resold at a loss had been owned for
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: just under four years. Calvin Davidson, Catality, chief Property economists
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  Speaker 1: with us this morning. Hey, Calvin, good morning. So how
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  Speaker 1: does that compare?
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  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, it's the highest I've got on records, So
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  Speaker 2: I think just consistent with the pretty flat housing market.
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  Speaker 2: If people are looking to get some kind of game,
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  Speaker 2: I guess they've just got to hang on for longer
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  Speaker 2: than the past. And it really is quite a stark trend.
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  Speaker 2: And I think the contrast there between the whole periods
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  Speaker 2: for gains and the whole period for losses is a
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  Speaker 2: really interesting thing, because if you hang on to ten years,
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  Speaker 2: for seeing twenty years, very likely you make a profit.
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  Speaker 2: But of course if you've only held on three or
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  Speaker 2: four years and face changed circumstances or something like that,
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  Speaker 2: much higher chance of making a loss, particularly in this
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: current market over the last three or four years, still down.
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  Speaker 2: So quite a stark difference there between whole periods for
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  Speaker 2: losses and games.
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  Speaker 1: Basically, if you don't have to well, you don't want
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  Speaker 1: to have to sell, do you. And maybe where people
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  Speaker 1: are staying together in relationships, they otherwise wouldn't just just
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  Speaker 1: to hold on to their properties and keep their values.
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  Speaker 2: Well possibly, yeah, well our data doesn't tell us about
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  Speaker 2: our relational issues. But yeah, we can certainly see that
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  Speaker 2: difference there between between whole periods, and I mean, in
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  Speaker 2: any market, there's always a greater chance of making a loss.
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  Speaker 2: If your whole period's pretty short. You probably didn't intend
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  Speaker 2: to hold for a short period of time, but things change.
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  Speaker 2: But it's just emphasized in this current market because the
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: house prices are still down eight eight percent in the peak,
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  Speaker 2: so that last three or four years has been a
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  Speaker 2: really tough time to hold for a short period.
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  Speaker 1: Is it an understandable but ultimately dumb psychological move that
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  Speaker 1: we do that, because then we when we sell, presumably
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  Speaker 1: we're selling into a higher market and buying more for
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  Speaker 1: the next one.
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  Speaker 2: Anyway, Yeah, there is always that old cliche of it
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  Speaker 2: doesn't really matter if you buy and sell in the
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  Speaker 2: same market, but it doesn't necessarily hold true at the moment,
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  Speaker 2: because yes, if you say you're a first home buyer
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one, at at the top of the market,
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  Speaker 2: you've had top dollar. You're now sitting on a property
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  Speaker 2: potentially depending on where you are in the country. Not
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  Speaker 2: every were, but if I'm sitting on a property in Auckland,
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  Speaker 2: you might still be down twenty five percent. So it
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  Speaker 2: does vary across the country, and there is that cliche
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  Speaker 2: of the safe, but it certainly a tough time at
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  Speaker 2: the moment to be buying and selling in a short
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  Speaker 2: period of time.
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  Speaker 1: It sounds like it too, Calvin, appreciate your update this morning.
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  Speaker 1: Calvin Davidson, Catality Chief Property Economists. For more from early
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: edition with Ryan Bridge.
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