Latest / Simply Bitcoin / $2.3T Bank Sends HUGE Bitcoin Warning To This $300T Market | EP 1257

Transcript

$2.3T Bank Sends HUGE Bitcoin Warning To This $300T Market | EP 1257 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Yeah, A. Massive $2.3 trillion bank just
• 0:04
  sent a huge Bitcoin warning to the $300 trillion bond market.
• 0:10
  What's interesting is that this bank mentioned the MicroStrategy
• 0:14
  playbook that's eating the bond market is exploding and that it
• 0:19
  might be the most unappreciated story of 2025 if you haven't
• 0:23
  been paying attention. Of course, if multi trillion
• 0:26
  dollar banks are catching on to this trend, we're starting to
• 0:30
  say, but you might only have a matter of weeks left to get
• 0:33
  positioned before Bitcoin makes its violent move.
• 0:38
  I mean, this last conference, I mean, you had a sitting vice
• 0:41
  president, you had CE OS of public companies from all
• 0:45
  different fields making an appearance at Bitcoin 2025.
• 0:50
  And what bank are we talking about?
• 0:52
  I mean, it's a big effing deal. We're talking about Wells Fargo.
• 0:56
  This is one of the largest banks in the United States and they're
• 1:00
  seeing and the world and they're seeing the writing on the wall.
• 1:03
  They're seeing what all the rest of us are saying, which is
• 1:07
  listen, this this Bitcoin strategy is working, right?
• 1:11
  Michael Saylor strategy is working.
• 1:14
  I mean, it's the name of his company, right?
• 1:16
  Anyway, sitting next to me is my legendary Co host Optimus Fields
• 1:20
  and from now on we're going to be doing the show together in
• 1:23
  person and we have some surprises for you guys.
• 1:26
  So stay tuned to simply Bitcoin. Anyways, let's jump straight
• 1:30
  into today's news story. Wells Fargo sees rise of
• 1:33
  companies holding Bitcoin on balance sheet.
• 1:36
  Wells Fargo says Bitcoin is entering and quote institutional
• 1:40
  phase marked by the emergence of a new category of companies,
• 1:44
  what is called Bitcoin Treasury Corps, that are using capital
• 1:49
  markets to amass large Bitcoin holdings.
• 1:52
  Bitcoin is becoming institutionalized, the firm
• 1:55
  wrote in a note, pointing to an expanding group of firms that
• 1:58
  use the capital markets to build Bitcoin holdings.
• 2:02
  Following the success of strategy, Wells Fargo
• 2:05
  highlighted 3 new Bitcoin treasury corporations with
• 2:09
  political ties, Cantor slash Tethers, 21, Vivek Ramaswami's
• 2:14
  Strive and David Bailey's Nakamoto.
• 2:17
  Together, these groups may raise as much as $25 billion.
• 2:22
  While Coinbase's inclusion in the S&P 500 is seen as a key
• 2:26
  symbolic milestone, Wells Fargo argued that quote.
• 2:29
  The more important in our view is the growing number of Bitcoin
• 2:33
  treasury corporations being minted.
• 2:35
  The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs has also accelerated
• 2:38
  institutional exposure. ETFs have attracted $136 billion
• 2:44
  in assets under management just 16 months after launch,
• 2:48
  including 11 billion in year to date inflows to Blackrock's I
• 2:52
  bid, currently fourth among all ETFs.
• 2:56
  But Wells Fargo sees even greater impact ahead.
• 3:00
  Quote If ETFs are a bridge between capital and Bitcoin, the
• 3:04
  flow of new Bitcoin treasury corporations may become an even
• 3:08
  bigger source of assets under management strategy.
• 3:11
  The pioneer in using equity markets to fund a Bitcoin
• 3:14
  Treasury is setting its sight on the $300 trillion global bond
• 3:19
  market with STRK and STRF. Wells Fargo believes this effort
• 3:24
  to tap the $300 trillion global global bond market might be the
• 3:29
  most appreciated Bitcoin's story of 2025.
• 3:32
  The firm expects more Bitcoin treasury corporations to emerge
• 3:36
  as long as public markets continue assigning a premium to
• 3:40
  their Bitcoin holdings. Moving on to a article by
• 3:43
  Mackenzie Sagalos of CNBC Sailors, Bitcoin buying strategy
• 3:49
  is exploding globally, but Wall Street is still skeptical.
• 3:52
  Kind of a little bit of a different take, it goes on to
• 3:55
  say. And I, I believe she was in, in
• 3:57
  Vegas, actually. The Bitcoin treasury play that
• 4:00
  lifted strategies market cap past 80 billion is now being
• 4:03
  mimicked by meme stock companies, media firms and
• 4:07
  multinational conglomerates. But Wall Street isn't buying all
• 4:10
  the hype. This week, Trump Media announced
• 4:13
  plans to raise $2.5 billion to buy Bitcoin GameStop and
• 4:17
  revealed a $500 million allocation.
• 4:20
  Meanwhile, Tether, SoftBank and strikes Jack Mahler's unveiled
• 4:24
  21, a Bitcoin native public company expected to launch with
• 4:29
  more than 42,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, enough to make it
• 4:33
  the third largest corporate holder of the asset globally.
• 4:36
  For now, the market doesn't see the strategy in any of them.
• 4:40
  Trump media shares have dropped more than 20% since the
• 4:42
  announcement, while GameStop is is down nearly 17%.
• 4:46
  Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has multiplied by
• 4:50
  26 times since the end of 2022, amassing a Bitcoin stake worth
• 4:55
  over $60 billion. Well, maybe the market wanted
• 4:58
  them to buy more Bitcoin, said strategy chairman Michael Saylor
• 5:02
  in an interview at Bitcoin 2025. But these are short term
• 5:05
  dynamics. Over the long term, Bitcoin on
• 5:07
  the balance sheet has proven to be extraordinarily popular.
• 5:11
  Sailor called Trump's media move courageous, aggressive and
• 5:17
  intelligent and said the floor of similar announcement marks a
• 5:21
  global shift in corporate finance.
• 5:23
  Quote, everywhere I go at at this conference, someone says,
• 5:27
  you know, I'm working on a Bitcoin treasury company in Hong
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  Kong. I'm doing this thing in Korea.
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  I've got this thing I'm working on in Abu Dhabi.
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  I'm going to do this thing in the Middle East.
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  You know, we've got this in the UK, He said there's an explosion
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  of interest right now. Sailors said Bitcoin ambassadors
• 5:43
  are quote planting the orange flag everywhere on earth.
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  What began as a fringe financial maneuver is quickly becoming a
• 5:51
  geopolitical race. Under the Biden administration,
• 5:53
  corporate Bitcoin adoption was often treated as a regulatory
• 5:57
  red flag. But under President Trump, the
• 5:59
  tone has changed. In March, Trump signed an
• 6:02
  executive order establishing AUS Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,
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  instructing federal agencies to treat Bitcoin as a long term
• 6:08
  store of value. The reserve will be funded
• 6:11
  entirely through Bitcoin sees in criminal and civil civil
• 6:14
  forfeiture cases. According to the White House
• 6:16
  crypto AISAR David Sachs. The order also empowers the
• 6:21
  government to explore additional budget neutral mechanisms for
• 6:24
  acquiring more Bitcoin. For the first time, the federal
• 6:27
  government will conduct a full audit of its digital asset
• 6:31
  holdings currently estimated at more than 200,000 Bitcoin.
• 6:35
  The order explicitly prohibits the sale of any Bitcoin from the
• 6:38
  reserve, cementing its role as a permanent permanent sovereign
• 6:42
  asset. So of course and mentions the
• 6:46
  the the speech by Vice President JD Vance.
• 6:50
  It goes on to say this week became the first sitting vice
• 6:54
  president to address the Bitcoin community directly, framing
• 6:57
  crypto as a hedge against inflation, censorship and
• 7:01
  unelected bureaucrats. And a further move to boast
• 7:04
  boost Bitcoin. The Department of Labor rolled
• 7:07
  back guidance that had discouraged Bitcoin investments
• 7:10
  in retirement plans. Quote, no force on earth can
• 7:13
  stop an idea whose time has come.
• 7:15
  Sailors said Bitcoin is digital capital and maybe the most
• 7:19
  explosive idea of the era. OK, lots to unpack here.
• 7:24
  And first of all, we're back. We're back here in South
• 7:26
  Florida. Of course, Opti's joining me.
• 7:29
  Yeah. I mean, starting Mondays off
• 7:31
  strong. So usually Mondays, Monday,
• 7:33
  Mondays news cycle is somewhat slow, but today's is on fire and
• 7:40
  lots to unpack there. First of all, this is crazy.
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  I mean, this, this Bitcoin treasury strategy is it's a
• 7:48
  global phenomenon. As Sailor pointed out, everyone
• 7:52
  is seeing the performance of strategy.
• 7:54
  Everyone is seeing the performance of Metaplanet and
• 7:57
  they want to copy it. They want to essentially, you
• 8:00
  know, put Bitcoin on their balance sheets, use the capital
• 8:03
  markets to raise more, more money and kind of do this
• 8:06
  infinite money glitch and do it over and over again.
• 8:10
  My first kind of reaction to this is every cycle there is
• 8:15
  this thing, there is this kind of like alpha play to outperform
• 8:19
  Bitcoin every cycle. That's the case.
• 8:21
  What I'm starting to see here is something like look like just,
• 8:28
  I'm sure strategy's going to work out.
• 8:30
  I'm sure 21's going to work out. I'm sure you know David Bailey's
• 8:34
  Nakamoto's going to work out. But if you have 50 Bitcoin
• 8:38
  treasury companies, I mean, money doesn't come out of the
• 8:41
  sky, right? Like I, I think eventually 1 is
• 8:44
  going to get over leveraged and potentially find itself in a
• 8:49
  difficult situation. I'm not saying that's the case
• 8:51
  for Michael Saylor because he had first mover advantage, but
• 8:54
  like even Trump Media Group, right, like president's own
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  media company is doing the whole Bitcoin treasury play.
• 9:02
  Now, of course, this is extremely exciting from a number
• 9:05
  go up perspective. But again, like we were talking
• 9:09
  about this on Friday's show during the culture, like I feel
• 9:12
  like Bitcoin, you know, it's out of its cypherpunk type of, you
• 9:18
  know, rebellion type of aspect and mindset and outlook.
• 9:23
  And as these articles have pointed out, it's become
• 9:27
  institutionalized, right? A lot of this Bitcoin, you know,
• 9:31
  it's saying the federal government has 200,000 Bitcoin.
• 9:33
  We still haven't seen the audit of that, by the way, that that
• 9:36
  was that was an executive order by the Trump administration back
• 9:41
  in January. And we still haven't seen the
• 9:43
  results of that audit. That's number one.
• 9:45
  Number two again, I would like to see proof of reserves.
• 9:52
  I don't think that's too much to ask is Bitcoiners, right?
• 9:54
  Like if you say you have the Bitcoin, you say you do, you
• 9:58
  know, I'm I, I don't come from the public markets.
• 10:00
  I don't have experience in Wall Street.
• 10:02
  I'm just a humble Bitcoiner, but I know how Bitcoin works very
• 10:06
  well. I know Opti knows how Bitcoin
• 10:07
  works and you know El Salvador has proof of reserves.
• 10:11
  Tether posted their reserve address like it can be done,
• 10:15
  right. I think that would put a lot of
• 10:18
  fears at Bay where a lot of Bitcoiners, a lot of Bitcoiners
• 10:21
  are saying like, look, a lot a lot of this Bitcoin is custody
• 10:25
  with Coinbase and you have to essentially take Coinbase's
• 10:29
  word. And you know, especially with
• 10:31
  the recent price action that we've seen, Bitcoin has
• 10:35
  underperformed compared to previous cycles.
• 10:38
  Like that is undebatable, right? So you know that again, that's
• 10:42
  my opinion. I could totally be wrong here.
• 10:45
  What I will say from a more positive aspect is the vice
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  president and his framing, right?
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  It's a hedge against inflation, censorship and unelected
• 10:54
  bureaucrats, something that we've been talking a lot about
• 10:57
  on simply Bitcoin. Bitcoin empowers you.
• 11:01
  It it it gives you the ability to reclaim back your financial
• 11:04
  sovereignty. And it's crazy that we have a
• 11:06
  sitting vice president, you know, who's in the executive
• 11:09
  branch, who's in power right now, basically telling that to
• 11:13
  the people, like, look, like this is your way to protect
• 11:16
  yourself against the state. That's what he's saying, right?
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  You know, whether that's inflation, whether that's
• 11:21
  censorship, whether that's the administrative state, you know,
• 11:24
  the deep state, however you want to call it, the unelected
• 11:26
  bureaucrat. And he's absolutely right there.
• 11:30
  So that that is a very, that's a positive.
• 11:32
  Now going back to the first article regarding Wells Fargo,
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  this is massive. This is one of the largest banks
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  in the United States, Opti said in the world.
• 11:41
  And they're basically admitting like, hey, guys, there is this
• 11:47
  huge emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies.
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  Bitcoin is becoming institutionalized.
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  This is the real deal. This is signal.
• 11:56
  This isn't going anyway. This isn't going anywhere,
• 11:59
  right? They're pointing out Coinbase's
• 12:02
  inclusion in the S&P 500. The reason that we said that
• 12:04
  that was such a big deal was because again, anyone who has
• 12:09
  exposure to the S&P 500 in the form of an index fund now has
• 12:13
  indirect exposure to Bitcoin whether they like it or not,
• 12:17
  right? And again, what happens if you
• 12:19
  have indirect exposure to Bitcoin?
• 12:21
  Your incentives start to align right with Bitcoiners because
• 12:26
  you know, no one wants their bags to go down, right?
• 12:29
  No matter how ideologically bent you are against Bitcoin, you
• 12:33
  don't want your bags to go down, right?
• 12:34
  So you know, Bitcoin is slowly creeping itself in to
• 12:39
  everywhere, governments, Wall Street, financial institutions.
• 12:44
  This is the game theory. This was inevitable.
• 12:46
  This was always going to happen. Number go up is a hell of an
• 12:50
  incentive, right? And we've seen every single
• 12:53
  person eventually bow down to the king.
• 12:56
  One inevitably, right, inevitably people bow down to
• 13:00
  the king. You had Jamie Dimon admit a week
• 13:03
  ago that, you know, JP Morgan, I think that was a chase, I
• 13:07
  believe, is going to allow their clients to buy Bitcoin.
• 13:13
  And he, you know, he kind of like dragged his feet on it.
• 13:15
  He said, like, look, I think it's still a terrible idea, but
• 13:18
  we're going to do it. Why is he doing that?
• 13:20
  Is he doing that out of the goodness of his heart?
• 13:22
  No, of course he's not doing out of the goodness of his heart.
• 13:24
  He's doing that because he doesn't want his clients to go
• 13:26
  to another bank that is offering their clients the ability to buy
• 13:31
  Bitcoin, right? This is what I mean by
• 13:32
  incentives, right? This is why Bitcoin is going to
• 13:35
  win fundamentally down the road. It's, it's incentives are
• 13:40
  superior to everything else. And that's what you guys, that's
• 13:44
  what I want you guys to understand.
• 13:46
  It's not a question of will Bitcoin win, will number go up?
• 13:49
  It's a question of when. And it's a question of how long
• 13:51
  will it take and what is that bumpy Rd. going to look like?
• 13:55
  But it's, it's inevitability is there.
• 13:58
  I mean, we've been saying this, I've been saying this since at
• 14:01
  least 20/16/2017. It happened a whole lot sooner
• 14:06
  than I anticipated, but yeah, this is the game theory playing
• 14:10
  out. No one can resist Bitcoin's
• 14:12
  incentives and This is why we are here right now.
• 14:15
  Anyways, Opti, I do want to give a shout out to the live stream
• 14:19
  1500 of you guys watching live between YouTube and X.
• 14:22
  If you guys are enjoying the show so far, make sure to smash
• 14:25
  that like button. Really, really helps with the
• 14:27
  algos. Right now on YouTube, we have 69
• 14:29
  likes. Make sure to smash that like
• 14:32
  button. Help us break 100 likes within
• 14:34
  the 1st 30 minutes of the show. Opti, what's your take on this
• 14:37
  my friend? Yeah First off everyone on
• 14:40
  YouTube smash the like button right now so that we can get
• 14:42
  back into the algos cause the three days off is definitely
• 14:46
  wrecking us right now all right well we.
• 14:49
  We to be fair, we weren't off. Yeah, yeah.
• 14:51
  I mean, yeah, you already know. You already know.
• 14:55
  We we didn't take a break. It just wasn't posted here and
• 14:58
  they don't know. Anyways, the Wells Fargo news I
• 15:01
  think is huge. Now, obviously everyone in the
• 15:03
  chat is kind of leaning into this idea that Bitcoin treasury
• 15:07
  companies are are essentially, you know, the shit coins of the
• 15:09
  cycle, which we don't disagree with.
• 15:11
  Obviously, you know, Nico kind of put the the caveat there that
• 15:14
  this is probably not going to last forever.
• 15:17
  And even though I think Saylor has, you know, his financials in
• 15:22
  check, it seems from the last time that I heard he, you know,
• 15:25
  all of his debt isn't, you know, completely full D Gen. over
• 15:29
  leverage. I think he said he could
• 15:31
  essentially power through very big dips and for probably like
• 15:36
  four years or something like that.
• 15:38
  So I'm pretty sure Sailor has structured his debt in a way
• 15:41
  where he's never going to blow up.
• 15:42
  But I think other people that are following this strategy
• 15:45
  might not understand the full financial engineering that
• 15:48
  Sailor is doing. And so I think it there will be
• 15:50
  a possibility. Well, to be fair, they're not
• 15:53
  sailor like sailor is a it like, let's be frank here, like
• 15:57
  sailor's a genius. All right, that that man is a
• 16:00
  genius and the way that he's been able to essentially take
• 16:05
  advantage of the capital markets in order to essentially raise
• 16:10
  money using cheap debt in order to buy more Bitcoin.
• 16:14
  Therefore the stock price of micro strategy goes up.
• 16:17
  Therefore, kind of rinse and repeating that like not everyone
• 16:21
  is Michael Saylor. Like there's a reason Michael
• 16:24
  Saylor is Michael Saylor. There's a reason strategy is the
• 16:28
  number one Bitcoin treasury company.
• 16:31
  Good luck anyone trying to catch up, right?
• 16:34
  I'm Jack Molars is incredibly smart and so is David Bailey.
• 16:37
  I'm not trying to take that away from them, but Michael Saylor
• 16:40
  has that first mover advantage. These copycats aren't Michael
• 16:43
  Saylor and for these copycats to compete with Michael Saylor,
• 16:47
  they might have to cut corners in order to try to accumulate
• 16:50
  Bitcoin. And then that's when you might
• 16:52
  find yourself in a lot of some of these Bitcoin treasury
• 16:56
  companies. Over leveraged and over leverage
• 16:59
  is not a problem as long as the the bull market is humming.
• 17:03
  Remember FTX or you know any of these like Celsius or any of
• 17:08
  these companies, they didn't collapse until the price of
• 17:11
  Bitcoin collapse. Everyone is parting when the
• 17:14
  number is going up. Like you pay the piper when the
• 17:20
  price goes down, not before when the price dips 5060%.
• 17:25
  Show me what Bitcoin companies are there.
• 17:27
  Show me what Bitcoin companies are resilient, because those are
• 17:30
  the companies that are meant to last right in a in a bull
• 17:33
  market, it's a party right? We're currently in a bull
• 17:36
  market. I still think we have a couple
• 17:37
  more months left of this bull market maybe a year, maybe 12
• 17:40
  months there, but then you know we might have a correction.
• 17:44
  Shout out to shout out to the audience by the way 150 people
• 17:48
  watching live someone in the chat Utxo Nico's portfolio is
• 17:52
  100 two 100% USTUI don't even know what US.
• 17:55
  TMSTUMSTU. Albin Einstein, Does Nico sleep
• 18:01
  with his fear and loathing glasses?
• 18:03
  Why? Why do you call them that?
• 18:03
  These are blue blockers. These lights are crazy.
• 18:06
  Yeah, they're killing us all right anyway.
• 18:07
  Anyways, Nico, that point stated, I think the biggest
• 18:12
  signal and they said it here. And I think when you read that
• 18:15
  Yahoo article, I think a lot of people read it.
• 18:18
  As you know, the Bitcoin treasury companies is the most
• 18:20
  underappreciated story of 2025. And you know, as someone that's
• 18:24
  in Bitcoin and of course, all you guys that are watching this
• 18:27
  show, it's probably the biggest news story amongst Bitcoiners.
• 18:30
  It's it's all the rage right now.
• 18:32
  And I was saying on Friday when we came back on YouTube that a
• 18:36
  lot of the conversations that I was hearing around the
• 18:38
  conferences, so many people being orange pill because of
• 18:41
  sailor. And of course, on the stage,
• 18:43
  there was all the talk about Bitcoin treasuries.
• 18:45
  It's, it's the newest narrative around Bitcoin.
• 18:48
  But I think the real signal here, and it's something we've
• 18:50
  kind of been covering the last couple of weeks, or rather the
• 18:53
  last week or two, is this idea of Bitcoin essentially drinking
• 18:57
  the bond market's milkshake. And we're seeing right now that
• 19:00
  there is a lot of uncertainty in the bond markets and people are
• 19:04
  trying to figure out a new risk off investment.
• 19:07
  And obviously Bitcoin is still early in that process says, but
• 19:11
  I think the fact that Wells Fargo is stating that Bitcoin
• 19:14
  will eat into the $300 trillion bond market, obviously
• 19:17
  referencing Michael Saylor, I think that's a huge signal of
• 19:21
  what's to come. Again, we're still, I would say
• 19:24
  in in the early stages of Bitcoin going mainstream.
• 19:27
  But I think if we know anything from this conference, it's it
• 19:30
  feels like Bitcoin is finally going mainstream.
• 19:33
  And the fact that we're having the banks and I know we're huge
• 19:36
  separation of money and state type people, you know, the the
• 19:39
  2008 bailout was in the genesis block.
• 19:42
  We're not necessarily here cheering on the fact that the
• 19:45
  banks are trying to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible, but we
• 19:48
  are acknowledging that they're seeing the problem.
• 19:50
  I am fully convinced that the Jamie Diamonds of the world know
• 19:53
  exactly what's going on and they're looking for an
• 19:56
  alternative. Again, it is no coincidence that
• 19:58
  Jamie Dimon last week was like, actually.
• 20:01
  If you want this Bitcoin thing, we'll sell it to you.
• 20:03
  Because they are forced to they are starting to have to give the
• 20:07
  the people what they want, which is of course Bitcoin or rather
• 20:11
  something that gains gives more returns than treasuries, of
• 20:15
  course real estate, of course equities, unless you're buying
• 20:17
  Bitcoin exposure equities. There is a new game in town and
• 20:21
  Bitcoin is showing up Bitcoin is maturing.
• 20:23
  Bitcoin is going to be the new kid on the block, or rather it
• 20:26
  is a new kid on the block, but it's going to be, you know, the
• 20:29
  shining superstar on the block because there's a problem right
• 20:32
  now. And of course they can kick the
• 20:34
  can down the road. But as we're, as we've been
• 20:36
  hearing from the Trump administration, it's about $4
• 20:39
  trillion that they're planning on printing here soon.
• 20:41
  So all that liquidity is going to have to find somewhere to
• 20:45
  basically rest itself. Yes, it could go to repo
• 20:47
  markets, but if you're going to see all this liquidity resting
• 20:51
  in repo markets and only get, you know what couple, couple
• 20:54
  percentage returns, you have to be convinced that most of that
• 20:58
  is going to eventually get into Bitcoin.
• 21:00
  And then that's when the real game starts to get played is
• 21:03
  once this really deep pocket start to realize, hey, I need to
• 21:07
  go into Bitcoin because not only is it the safest thing to be
• 21:10
  holding, but it's going to give me the returns that I want.
• 21:12
  And of course, everyone's chasing that dealt with me and
• 21:15
  everyone's chasing that high of getting some good trades and of
• 21:18
  course, preserving their purchasing power rather, you
• 21:21
  know, multiplying their purchasing power here.
• 21:23
  And I think this is what we're seeing, Nico.
• 21:25
  Yeah, 100%. I think people every cycle
• 21:27
  there's like an alpha, right? So the 2017 cycle, which me and
• 21:32
  Opti, that's the cost that we were, we came from it was the
• 21:36
  Icos, right? The Icos were all the buzz.
• 21:39
  Everyone wanted to get into the ICO.
• 21:41
  You get pre ICO before it got listed on exchange and you'd be
• 21:45
  able able to outperform Bitcoin in theory.
• 21:48
  Most people got wrecked. Then the second cycle, this 2021
• 21:52
  cycle was the layer 1 altcoins and the NFTS.
• 21:57
  And you know that that was essentially what outperformed
• 22:02
  Bitcoin, Etherium I think as well.
• 22:04
  It outperformed Bitcoin of course, in the short term,
• 22:06
  right? And then I think that this
• 22:09
  cycles like alpha, this cycles Bitcoin outperformance move is
• 22:15
  these Bitcoin treasury companies.
• 22:16
  Now, I think the reason that it's taking a lot of people by
• 22:18
  surprise is because it's outside of the so-called Bitcoin and
• 22:23
  crypto ecosystem and it's more so within the traditional
• 22:27
  financial system. And I think that's why a lot of
• 22:30
  people are just like, hey, like this is kind of strange.
• 22:33
  This is kind of weird. But I think that this cycle, if
• 22:37
  there is a blow off top, if there is kind of like this mania
• 22:40
  phase, I think this is going to be the driving force.
• 22:43
  Now, does that mean that MicroStrategy or 21 or Nakamoto
• 22:50
  are going to blow up? I don't think so.
• 22:52
  Why? Because they got very favorable
• 22:55
  terms like Michael Saylor wouldn't like Bitcoin would have
• 23:00
  to go to such a like such a low price for him to even be in any
• 23:05
  type of any type of trouble like you're talking about, you know,
• 23:10
  10K15K Bitcoin, right? And potentially even that.
• 23:15
  And he could probably even still shoulder it through because his
• 23:18
  company has cash flow, right? But a lot of these new upcoming
• 23:23
  Bitcoin treasury companies, I'm, I'm calling it right now and I'm
• 23:28
  not going to name any of them by name.
• 23:30
  I don't even know a lot of them, right?
• 23:33
  I think some of them are going to cut corners in order to try
• 23:36
  to accumulate Bitcoin in order for them to try to compete with
• 23:40
  MicroStrategy, right? Like first mover advantage is a
• 23:43
  very big deal. And the fact is that Metaplanet
• 23:46
  had first mover advantage in Japan, Strategy had first mover
• 23:50
  advantage in the United States. Jack Mahler's 21, Jack Mahler's
• 23:54
  plus Tether 21 coming in second place, Then Nakamoto, David
• 23:58
  Bailey's coming in in 3rd place. Like every company that follows
• 24:02
  them, they're going to have less favorable terms to borrow money
• 24:06
  and that's when the corners start to get cut and all it
• 24:11
  takes is a 3040% drawdown and it one of these companies to be
• 24:16
  over leveraged. And then you'll start to see
• 24:19
  potentially A domino effect, right?
• 24:21
  I, I, I've seen this before, like I, I've been in this, I've
• 24:24
  been, I've been doing this for a while now.
• 24:26
  And it just seems like this is the alpha play of this cycle of
• 24:30
  the 2025 cycle. It's the Bitcoin treasury
• 24:33
  companies. That's how you out compete
• 24:35
  Bitcoin. But again, if, if it were that
• 24:37
  easy, there would be 1000 Bitcoin treasury companies,
• 24:40
  right? So, you know, let's see how this
• 24:42
  plays out. Maybe I'm totally wrong here.
• 24:45
  This is kind of going outside my area of expertise.
• 24:48
  I'm, I'm a Bitcoiner at heart. I don't really deal with
• 24:51
  traditional financial markets. I've been kind of forced to, to
• 24:56
  because Bitcoin is becoming institutionalized and you have
• 24:59
  to learn these things in order to like, you know, hold good
• 25:03
  conversations with some of your guests or talk about these
• 25:06
  subjects. But I, I am a little bit
• 25:09
  skeptical. And by the way, I'm not the only
• 25:11
  one that feels this way. Spetsky basically was making the
• 25:14
  same argument not too long ago. It's like, look, guys, like,
• 25:18
  come on now, what's going on here?
• 25:19
  So yeah, I still think MicroStrategy is a great
• 25:23
  investment. I still think a lot of these
• 25:25
  companies are great investments. I I still think like, if Bitcoin
• 25:28
  goes up 100%, MicroStrategy would probably go up to 100%,
• 25:32
  right? So it's not taking away from
• 25:34
  those companies and them as an investment.
• 25:36
  What I'm saying is the copycats, I think they're going to cut
• 25:40
  corners and they're not Michael Saylor, right?
• 25:42
  They're not David Bailey, they're not Jack Mahler's,
• 25:45
  right? They're copycats, right?
• 25:48
  And I think they're going to cut quarters and they, they might
• 25:51
  take more, they, they might take more, more leverage and they
• 25:55
  might take more kind of irresponsible loans and what
• 25:57
  not. So anyhow, TLDR, massive,
• 26:01
  massive news. Wells Fargo covering this
• 26:05
  basically saying, listen guys, this is a big deal.
• 26:08
  This is here to stay. Wells Fargo 1 of America's
• 26:11
  largest banks just admitted to the world that Bitcoin is
• 26:15
  becoming institutionalized as bitcoiners me and Opti we're
• 26:19
  we're listen buy Bitcoin stay humble stack stats put it in
• 26:22
  cold storage. It's a little bit bittersweet is
• 26:25
  it not It's a little bit bittersweet.
• 26:26
  I'm not gonna lie to you, but again, just for the for their
• 26:30
  all overall movement. I think, I think it's bullish
• 26:34
  from a number go up perspective. Anyways, before we get into
• 26:37
  today, the rest of today's show, I do want to give a shout out to
• 26:41
  simply Bitcoins lead sponsor guys.
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• 27:49
  Anyways, guys, we have a hell of a show lined up for you guys.
• 27:52
  We have Lawrence Leopard predicting $7,000,000 Bitcoin,
• 27:57
  absolutely bullish. And some more geopolitical news
• 28:01
  as it relates to Bitcoin. Again, this is going to continue
• 28:03
  to heat up. We've been telling you guys
• 28:05
  since the previous election, since November, we've been
• 28:08
  telling you guys that. Hey, guys, listen, you know,
• 28:11
  Bitcoin has crossed the Rubicon. It's becoming mainstream.
• 28:15
  It's, it's, you know, it's, it's, it's being talked about in
• 28:19
  the mainstream lexicon, right? It's being taught.
• 28:21
  It's, it's on people's consciousness.
• 28:24
  People are talking about this. And again, the more and more
• 28:27
  people adopt Bitcoin, the more and more people opt out of the
• 28:30
  legacy system. And by definition that is
• 28:35
  political. There's people that are going to
• 28:37
  push back against that. The people that are pro Fiat,
• 28:40
  pro CBDC's, pro government, top down control, and the people
• 28:45
  that are pro freedom are going to be pro Bitcoin.
• 28:47
  So by definition, it was an inevitability that Bitcoin was
• 28:53
  going to get political. So we're going to be covering
• 28:55
  this. This is a worldwide movement.
• 28:58
  Who's pro Bitcoin? Who's winning what election,
• 29:01
  what government is anti Bitcoin? And that's gonna empower you to
• 29:04
  make the right decision because we have a worldwide audience.
• 29:07
  We know our demographics. So we're gonna let you guys
• 29:10
  know, you know, what countries suit you best if you're a
• 29:13
  bitcoiner, what countries you can move to, right?
• 29:15
  So we're gonna be covering all that during the news segment.
• 29:18
  And then, of course, more news coming out of Russia.
• 29:20
  Russia's central bank is essentially allowing more crypto
• 29:25
  derivatives apparently. So yes, just global news is
• 29:28
  becoming a global show. Could never have imagined this
• 29:31
  when when Opti and I first started this, it was like we
• 29:35
  were in a bunker, bro. We were like trying to survive.
• 29:37
  Now we're thriving and it's good to see.
• 29:40
  Anyways, guys, let's get to the numbers segment.
• 29:42
  We will be right back in just a second.
• 29:44
  We're going to talk about Larry Leopard talking about a
• 29:48
  potential $7,000,000 Bitcoin. We'll be back in just one
• 29:53
  second. I want to tell you guys about
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• 31:24
  today. All right, everybody, let's get
• 31:31
  to the numbers. I don't know why it's oh, it's
• 31:32
  'cause I had this maximized At the time of recording.
• 31:35
  The Bitcoin price is $104,380, Block height 899,519, sats per
• 31:42
  dollar 950. 8. Market cap 2.07 trillion Bitcoin
• 31:47
  versus gold Market cap 8.7% Percentage issued 94.63% decline
• 31:53
  from all time high -6.8% Realized monetary inflation
• 31:58
  sitting at .85 percent. Grand scheme of things, Bitcoin
• 32:01
  continues to take Fiat currencies to absolute school.
• 32:05
  Anyways, here's a clip of Larry Leopard, the man, the myth, the
• 32:08
  legend, talking about $7,000,000 Bitcoin.
• 32:12
  I'm going to play it and then me and Opti are going to talk about
• 32:15
  it. I think we're easily in five
• 32:17
  years time, we're easily kind of 305 hundred something like that.
• 32:21
  But but if it, you know, you could get a swing where it just
• 32:24
  goes much, much higher than that.
• 32:25
  Do you know what I mean? I mean, it's, it's entirely
• 32:27
  possible that we have a, you know, oh, here we go.
• 32:30
  Yeah, it's on page 293 for anyone following along with me.
• 32:33
  So the five year power line model shows the trend line in
• 32:37
  five years. And this was from last year.
• 32:38
  So maybe you'd have to move it up a little bit from us.
• 32:40
  Five years would be at three, 326,000, but this is
• 32:45
  interesting. 1 standard deviation up is 667,000, 2
• 32:50
  standard deviations up is 1,000,853.
• 32:53
  And by the way, Bitcoin has traded at 2 standard deviations
• 32:56
  above. It's it's trendline mean, you
• 32:58
  know, many times, so not many times, but in each cycle like
• 33:02
  there've been five of them and then one standard deviation down
• 33:04
  is 180. So, you know, in five years, I
• 33:08
  mean, I could easily see it be half 1,000,000 bucks.
• 33:11
  You know, in 10 years, the bit the trendline is 1,000,000.
• 33:14
  So that would exit that was 1,000,001 actually.
• 33:16
  So that way. And, and the one standard
• 33:18
  deviation up is 2.2 and 2 is 66 million.
• 33:22
  Now, you know, typically if you look at it historically, you
• 33:25
  know, 2 standard deviations above the trend line, it doesn't
• 33:28
  generally stay there for very long.
• 33:29
  It it spikes up as we all know and that it corrects.
• 33:32
  So, but in 20 years, you know, the trend line is 7 million.
• 33:36
  So I mean these are some big numbers and that's what happens
• 33:39
  when you when you compound something out over, you know,
• 33:43
  year after year. I mean, it is a scarce asset and
• 33:46
  there is a large amount of Fiat money that's.
• 33:48
  Going in 2 miles continue on to Ohio Turnpike W toward
• 33:51
  Cleveland, it. Really is and you know that's
• 33:55
  I'm sure you're familiar, it's in the book too.
• 33:56
  Jesse Myers chart on, you know, the just the total available
• 33:59
  market. You know, there's $9 trillion,
• 34:02
  there are $9 trillion of Fiat things out there.
• 34:05
  If you include real estate, 900 trillion.
• 34:11
  So in one miles, take a. That's crazy.
• 34:16
  We're going to Cleveland, boys. That was part.
• 34:18
  Of the recording, Uncle Larry dropping the hot fire.
• 34:23
  Uncle Larry dude, Uncle Larry's wisdom man I I love Larry
• 34:27
  Lepard. Big fan.
• 34:29
  Check out his new book The big print.
• 34:31
  And just dropping the sauce like Larry always does.
• 34:37
  But yeah, I mean, look, I completely agree.
• 34:39
  Three to five years, we'll see 300,500 thousand Bitcoin that I
• 34:44
  think is a that I think is a is a is a is a minimum is a
• 34:49
  minimum. I do want to give a shout out to
• 34:51
  the live stream today. 2300 people watching live, 400 people
• 34:56
  watching live on Rumble. If you guys are enjoying the
• 34:58
  show so far, make sure to smash that like button really really
• 35:02
  helps with the algos. Appreciate appreciate all y'all
• 35:05
  love you all Thank you guys so much for supporting the show.
• 35:08
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• 35:10
  partners. We're very very picky on who we
• 35:12
  choose to partner with and they'll all help you on your
• 35:16
  Bitcoin journey anyhow, Opti, what's your take on this my
• 35:20
  friend bro, because first of all, are we going to Cleveland?
• 35:24
  Is that is that what's happening?
• 35:25
  Yeah, Cleveland's a new moon, apparently.
• 35:29
  Yeah. Well, look, everyone in the
• 35:32
  chat, well rather more everyone in the Rumble chat is saying it
• 35:35
  is never going to these prices, that we need to calm down.
• 35:38
  We have our favorite cash maxi in the chat saying that we're
• 35:42
  idiots to think bitcoins going to the 1,000,000.
• 35:45
  But I think when you really break it down, there's two data
• 35:47
  points or rather two people kind of saying very similar things.
• 35:50
  Obviously Larry says 7 mil in 20 years.
• 35:55
  I honestly think that is very, very, very conservative price
• 36:00
  considering where things are going.
• 36:02
  If we go to a million, I don't know this next cycle.
• 36:06
  A lot of people are saying this. I literally, I was talking to
• 36:08
  Luke this morning and he pretty much said like it's game over in
• 36:12
  three years. And I'm like what like
• 36:14
  $1,000,000 Bitcoin. He's like no like $10 million
• 36:16
  Bitcoin. You see all this news happening
• 36:19
  and I'm like, yo, like now you're really, really smoking
• 36:22
  that opium that that seems far fetched.
• 36:24
  And he's like the amount of Bitcoin on the exchange is once
• 36:27
  it gets wiped out, we will find out the true price of Bitcoin
• 36:31
  and then it starts to teleport. And I do agree with that
• 36:35
  framing. But you know, three years, I, I
• 36:37
  think, I think he's a little ahead of schedule here, but 20
• 36:40
  years down the line, 7 million doesn't seem that far off it, it
• 36:44
  honestly seems kind of conservative at that point.
• 36:47
  And then again, if you guys watch the Arthur Hayes clip at
• 36:50
  the Bitcoin conference, he's basically saying, you know, a
• 36:53
  million in roughly 3-4 years. Like he's like, he basically
• 36:57
  said the math is easy. The math is very easy to get to
• 37:01
  $1,000,000 Bitcoin here. So in 20 years, I know 7 million
• 37:04
  right now sounds crazy, but also in the early days of Bitcoin,
• 37:07
  100K sounded crazy. And yet here we are.
• 37:10
  And we're already, you know, we have, we have the perma bear
• 37:12
  next to me. Oh, he's talking about like, why
• 37:14
  would the price go up? I think 7,000,020 years is, is a
• 37:19
  pretty conservative bet here. I, I'm totally convinced we are
• 37:22
  going into the, you know, the 10s of millions of dollars here.
• 37:26
  And you know, the numbers that Larry's talking about, yes, he's
• 37:29
  talking kind of about Wix and stuff, but he basically said in
• 37:33
  20 years, 7,000,000 is like the, you know, that the median price
• 37:39
  here, so it'll be higher than that.
• 37:41
  And it might be lower than that, but it's going to range around 7
• 37:44
  mil. I really don't think that that's
• 37:45
  crazy a prediction. Again, as the saying goes, you
• 37:49
  overestimate what you can do in two years, but you underestimate
• 37:52
  what you can do in 10 years. And I think we're all kind of
• 37:54
  thinking this in terms of the price of Bitcoin because with
• 37:58
  the law of big numbers, we don't know how high this is going.
• 38:01
  We don't know how much money they're going to be printing.
• 38:04
  All we know is 21 million hard tapped if Bitcoin can't survive
• 38:07
  And and I really think this is kind of part of the trend right
• 38:10
  now. A lot of people are talking
• 38:11
  about is Bitcoin being attacked? Is a spam going to blow up
• 38:14
  Bitcoin? And you know, the men pools are
• 38:17
  empty. I, I think you know, bitcoiners
• 38:19
  are very quick to go into panic mode, but 7,000,020 years.
• 38:23
  I, I really don't think that that's crazy, Nico.
• 38:26
  No, not crazy at all man. I I think I think it's totally
• 38:29
  reasonable. By the way, I do want to give a
• 38:31
  shout out to the show today 2400 people while live between
• 38:35
  YouTube and X and another 400 or so watching live on rumble.
• 38:39
  If you guys are enjoying the show so far, make sure to smash
• 38:42
  that like button. We love all these platforms,
• 38:44
  YouTube X and rumble. We love love these platforms
• 38:47
  that allows us to get the message out there.
• 38:49
  If you guys are enjoying the show so far, there's 148 likes.
• 38:53
  Make sure to smash that like button.
• 38:55
  Help us break 200 likes by the time we wrap up the show.
• 39:00
  I want to go through some of the comments cause they've been
• 39:03
  getting savage. We got Nicholas, he says getting
• 39:07
  way ahead of ourselves. We got Elaine Opti being
• 39:12
  bearish. It's cute Elaine.
• 39:14
  I love that comment by Elaine. Let's check out some of these
• 39:18
  other comments. The biggest the biggest of big
• 39:22
  boy. Fighting over a scarce commodity
• 39:24
  has always meant much lower prices, Girich says I need
• 39:29
  Bitcoin and nuke TO60K so I could load up and 58K low skeg
• 39:35
  still going. Yes 58 K is still alive and well
• 39:38
  until we're out of the trenches anyway dude, I love these little
• 39:43
  like Bitcoin thing that's awesome anyways guys it's gonna
• 39:47
  be a hell of a show. We still have lots of news to
• 39:49
  get cover to cover today there was an election in Poland and
• 39:53
  the pro Bitcoin can we're not gonna talk about all the other
• 39:56
  stuff, but a pro Bitcoin candidate did win the election.
• 40:00
  There's gonna be a continuation, guys.
• 40:02
  Unfortunately, Unfortunately, unfortunately.
• 40:05
  Look, it is the way it is, all right.
• 40:09
  The midterms that's happening in 2026, they're going to matter.
• 40:13
  They're going to matter. The 2028 election, it's going to
• 40:16
  matter. Elections worldwide where they
• 40:19
  have pro Bitcoin candidates, they're going to matter.
• 40:22
  I tell you guys, there's two futures ahead of us.
• 40:25
  There's a future of Bitcoin and the continuation of Fiat
• 40:28
  currencies, which are central bank digital currencies, right?
• 40:32
  So you're going to have a choice between those two futures and
• 40:36
  obviously politicians are going to back one or the other, right?
• 40:40
  That's the reality, right? We have Elizabeth Warren, right?
• 40:43
  Elizabeth Warren in the United States, despite the the result
• 40:47
  of this previous election, she still wants CBDC's.
• 40:51
  You saw how she was on the floor of the of the Senate when the
• 40:57
  Genius Act was being passed. I was watching it like a sports
• 40:59
  game. Senator Lummus was on the floor
• 41:02
  and on the other side with Senator Warren, right?
• 41:04
  Like it was crazy. So all of this is all of this
• 41:07
  stuff is incredibly important and we're going to keep you up
• 41:09
  to date with all this stuff. And if it's your country, get
• 41:13
  out, get out. And I mean, I, I can't believe
• 41:16
  I'm saying this, get out and vote.
• 41:17
  Get out and vote. We already said it.
• 41:19
  As as a collecting, as a collective voting bloc
• 41:23
  Bitcoiners, the our, our voting bloc is, is going to continue to
• 41:27
  get bigger and bigger. We will have more influence.
• 41:29
  And again, unless you want to just keep running away to
• 41:32
  different jurisdictions, right, that will treat you favorably.
• 41:35
  Eventually you're going to have to hold the line and say, you
• 41:38
  know what, I'm going to vote for the pro Bitcoin person, right?
• 41:42
  We're not going to talk about all the other social issues and
• 41:45
  political issues because that's not this type of show.
• 41:47
  So anyways, guys, smash the like button.
• 41:50
  We're going to be right back in the new segment.
• 41:52
  We're going to be talking about a lot of things and we'll be
• 41:55
  right back in just a second. I want to give a shout out to
• 41:59
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  their website. Anyways, let's get to today's
• 45:19
  news, Poland. And again, as you guys know the
• 45:24
  deal, you guys know the one O 1, you guys know the pizzazz, you
• 45:32
  guys know what's going on here. We're not.
• 45:35
  We're not going to cover any of the other political issues until
• 45:40
  we have to, but until then, we're just going to cover what
• 45:45
  is happening. That's pro Bitcoin.
• 45:47
  So. Nationalist candidate backs
• 45:49
  crypto in tight Polish presidential race Poland's Nash
• 45:53
  nationalist candidate Karol Nawaraki has pledged to support
• 45:58
  the cryptocurrency industry if he wins a tightly contested
• 46:01
  presidential election on Sunday. Speaking in a short video posted
• 46:04
  on X and Iraqi said that he will reject any regulations aimed at
• 46:10
  curbing the freedom of investing.
• 46:12
  The candidate, backed by the opposition Law and Justice
• 46:15
  Party, admitted that he doesn't invest in digital currencies.
• 46:18
  Poland needs to be a place where innovation is created, not
• 46:21
  regulation, Iraqi said on Wednesday.
• 46:23
  As the Polish president, I will guarantee that no murderous
• 46:28
  regulations will be implemented that will limit your freedom.
• 46:31
  Now Rocky's running neck and neck with Warsaw Mayor Rafael.
• 46:36
  Man these these last names are crazy.
• 46:39
  Tarawski Zrotowski. Thank you Opti, you should have
• 46:43
  just said that just days before a title election slated for June
• 46:46
  1st. His support for cryptocurrencies
• 46:49
  is an attempt to lure supporters of far right candidate Benson,
• 46:54
  who got 14.8% of votes in the first round of the ballot and is
• 46:58
  known for holding bitcoins in February.
• 47:00
  How do you say it? Turawski told a rally that he's
• 47:04
  against regulating the cryptocurrency market in Poland.
• 47:07
  Now really interesting here, by the way, this this candidate was
• 47:14
  officially elected president. He got the majority of the vote
• 47:18
  that that we found this out last night.
• 47:21
  So we have a pro Bitcoin president in Poland, which I
• 47:26
  think is a big deal. Now, again, there's no
• 47:29
  conspiracies, but there's no coincidences.
• 47:31
  This is actually the pro Trump candidate, right?
• 47:34
  So again, is it a coincidence that the pro Trump candidate is
• 47:38
  also pro Bitcoin? No, it's not a coincidence.
• 47:41
  So yeah, I mean, very bullish overall if you live in Poland.
• 47:45
  Good, great. You got a pro Bitcoin president
• 47:48
  or pro Bitcoin Prime Minister. I don't know how it works over
• 47:50
  there, but yeah, it's pretty bullish overall.
• 47:54
  Next piece of news Russian central bank let's financial
• 47:57
  firms offer crypto derivatives to qualify to qualified
• 48:00
  investors Russia's central bank announced that financial
• 48:04
  institutions are now allowed to to offer qualified investors
• 48:07
  financial derivatives, securities and digital financial
• 48:10
  assets linked to cryptocurrency prices.
• 48:13
  The announcement marks an important step in Russia's
• 48:16
  ongoing effort to relax crypto regulations for domestic
• 48:19
  investors. Still, the move is limited.
• 48:22
  The Bank of Russia stated and it's Wednesday announcement that
• 48:25
  it that it's condition for allowing such offerings is they
• 48:29
  must be non deliverable, meaning investors gain exposure to
• 48:33
  cryptocurrency price movements but not the actual digital
• 48:36
  assets quote credit. Institutions are advised to
• 48:40
  apply a conservative approach to assessing the risks associated
• 48:44
  with these instruments provided for their full coverage with
• 48:48
  capital and set individual limits on them, the central bank
• 48:51
  said, adding that it will provide further guidance on such
• 48:54
  risks this year. Following the announcement,
• 48:57
  Seberbank, Russia's largest state owned bank, said it is
• 49:00
  planning to launch structured bonds with yields to tie tie to
• 49:04
  crypto prices. The Moscow exchange also plans
• 49:08
  to introduce a new cash settled Bitcoin futures contract on its
• 49:12
  derivatives market this June. Separately, the SPB exchange
• 49:17
  revealed its road map to offer cryptocurrency.
• 49:19
  See linked Futures Trading. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia
• 49:22
  submitted a proposal to the country's government in March to
• 49:26
  launch an experimental regime that allows crypto transactions
• 49:30
  for highly qualified investors. The bank and the finance
• 49:33
  ministry are also developing A crypto exchange exclusively for
• 49:38
  the limited for for the limited number of investors.
• 49:42
  So I don't like the whole kind of gatekeeping based on, you
• 49:45
  know, if you're a specific type of investor and this and this
• 49:48
  and that. But what I'm trying to point out
• 49:51
  here with just these articles, all these articles just broke
• 49:55
  their recent right, is that this Bitcoin thing isn't just a
• 49:59
  phenomenon happening in the United States.
• 50:02
  This last selection of Donald Trump and his victory sent shock
• 50:07
  waves all across the world and essentially put a rubber stamp
• 50:11
  of approval on Bitcoin as a government asset, as an
• 50:16
  institutional asset, and as an asset for individuals to own.
• 50:22
  And this is a game theory. This is a game theory playing
• 50:24
  out in real time. This is a global phenomenon.
• 50:27
  This is happening everywhere. This is happening in Latam, this
• 50:30
  is happening in Africa, this is happening in Euro Asia, this is
• 50:34
  happening in North America. So the Bitcoin train don't stop.
• 50:38
  We're winning. This is this is this is insane.
• 50:40
  This is what winning looks like, right?
• 50:43
  And I agree with what you were saying earlier.
• 50:44
  Man, with all this news, I got to say this one more time before
• 50:48
  I pass it on to Opti. In all my years in Bitcoin, I
• 50:52
  have never seen such a bullish cycle.
• 50:55
  I mean, this would have made my job 100 times easier back in the
• 50:59
  day because back in the day we had like little like, you know,
• 51:02
  bread crumbs of like, Oh my God, bro, you see this government,
• 51:05
  they might adopt Bitcoin. You didn't have like full on
• 51:09
  announcements of this, right? Like this wasn't happening and
• 51:12
  it is happening now, and it's a big effing deal.
• 51:16
  This shows you that we are winning.
• 51:19
  We're winning big, we're winning massively.
• 51:22
  And again, I think it's just a matter of time before the price
• 51:27
  catches up with the news because the fundamentals are there.
• 51:31
  Remember when Bitcoin was at 109,000 in the beginning of the
• 51:36
  year, Trump's inauguration day, which is higher than what it is
• 51:39
  right now? Six months ago, basically we
• 51:43
  didn't have a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 51:45
  The hash rate wasn't as high it is as it is right now.
• 51:48
  You didn't have the announcement of two extra Bitcoin treasury
• 51:52
  companies, right? So the the price was higher, but
• 51:57
  the fundamentals now are stronger.
• 52:00
  Where do you think it's going to go, right?
• 52:03
  Where do you think it's going to go?
• 52:04
  I think during this, during Trump's last term, this, these
• 52:10
  next four years, these next three years and a half, really,
• 52:13
  I think we're going to see Bitcoin reach heights that
• 52:17
  people couldn't even have imagined, couldn't have even
• 52:20
  have dreamed of. That's my humble opinion, bro.
• 52:24
  I might be wrong here, but that's what I think.
• 52:27
  Someone's making fun of my tracksuit.
• 52:28
  This is my Real Madrid jersey, bro.
• 52:30
  I'm wearing my Real Madrid jersey.
• 52:32
  It's not a tracksuit. It's like a track sweater, I
• 52:34
  think. But yeah, man, someone in the
• 52:38
  chat saying we are the new 1%. You got to stay humble, bro.
• 52:41
  I don't own any Bitcoin. I don't know what you're talking
• 52:43
  about. Let's check out some of this.
• 52:47
  People are saying Nico said crypto, not Bitcoin.
• 52:51
  Poland is still in the E Optis X is still head of the ECB until
• 52:56
  she leaves for the WEF. That's a good point.
• 53:00
  That's a good point. Bitcoiners need to make voting
• 53:02
  honest again. Nico, do you think?
• 53:05
  Oh my God, the rumble chat is, is hardcore, bro.
• 53:07
  I'm just going to put Bitcoin emojis in the rumble chat.
• 53:12
  Yeah. I mean, what do you think, Opti?
• 53:14
  I, I, I think, I think people are, are overly bearish bro in
• 53:17
  my opinion. And by most people you mean
• 53:20
  yourself. Sure.
• 53:24
  First of all, touching on the Poland news, Poland's looking
• 53:29
  like a good place to live now. I guess what we'll see, we'll
• 53:32
  see what he actually pulls through.
• 53:33
  Obviously it's becoming very clear.
• 53:36
  And I think Elaine said in the chat best, and we've been saying
• 53:38
  this for a long time, if you want to get elected now, you
• 53:41
  have to be pro Bitcoin. We've seen what it did for
• 53:43
  Trump. We're seeing what's going on in
• 53:45
  Poland. We're seeing that this this, you
• 53:47
  know, narrative spin here by politicians at embracing
• 53:50
  innovation, freedom, etcetera, by embracing Bitcoin.
• 53:55
  It it's obviously a trend that people want to hear.
• 53:58
  Like this is what people want to hear.
• 53:59
  We're we're tired of hearing all this stuff about we're all bad
• 54:02
  and you know, they're going to drop ACBBC on us and a digital
• 54:06
  ID. You know, they need to get us in
• 54:09
  a database to control everything and protect us from, you know,
• 54:11
  some boogeyman. Now we're seeing, hey, people
• 54:14
  want freedom. People want to use a money that
• 54:17
  isn't stealing from us. This is like the biggest issue
• 54:20
  that everyone was talking about in the US election.
• 54:22
  I'm guessing it's a huge conversation in the the EU that
• 54:26
  we're all getting poorer. Inflation is taking our lunch,
• 54:29
  groceries are more expensive. I don't know if you guys saw the
• 54:32
  metric, but there's, I believe it was 30% more sellers and
• 54:36
  houses. And there are buyers like no
• 54:38
  one's being able to buy a house. Everyone's trying to offload
• 54:40
  their houses. Like the economic situation
• 54:43
  right now is getting bad for everyone.
• 54:44
  So this is the defining conversation.
• 54:46
  I actually saw a good tweet today and I was talking about it
• 54:49
  last week of just Bitcoiners being bad at orange peeling
• 54:53
  because we go into the facts and the figures and, you know, the
• 54:55
  Fed and the creature from Jekyll Island and, you know, all the
• 54:59
  intricacies about Bitcoin. But in reality, people just want
• 55:02
  to make sure that they aren't going broke.
• 55:04
  They want to have some freedom, they want to have a life again.
• 55:08
  And I think we're starting to see the trend play out.
• 55:11
  Obviously, we saw in Poland, we see it in the US.
• 55:13
  Now, whether these politicians are lying or they can actually
• 55:16
  follow through, I think it's a totally different conversation.
• 55:18
  But we're seeing that people do want this because, hey, it's
• 55:22
  getting people elected. So the more they lean into these
• 55:24
  narratives, the more it becomes true that you have to embrace
• 55:28
  Bitcoin to become a politician, or rather to get into power.
• 55:32
  And I think this is a great, great trend.
• 55:34
  Now on the Russian news, I think this is huge.
• 55:38
  We've been talking about bit bonds for a long time and now
• 55:41
  we're seeing that, hey, look, if Russia is embracing this
• 55:44
  obviously only for accredited investors, that's, you know, a
• 55:48
  kind of a bad caveat, but it does seem to be the norm for
• 55:51
  what's going on in Russia. Every time they talk about
• 55:53
  Bitcoin or rather crypto currencies, they always say, you
• 55:56
  know, either high net worth individuals or accredited
• 55:58
  investors. They're they're they're not
• 56:00
  fully yet allowing, you know, the plebeians to get into
• 56:03
  Bitcoin, But I think it's only a matter of time.
• 56:06
  And if we see the US follow suit or follow the the Russian
• 56:10
  central bank, I think in the US we will see a more laissez faire
• 56:14
  kind of free market view of this.
• 56:16
  Because in America, obviously we have we have a different culture
• 56:19
  here where they can't just do it for a small portion of the
• 56:21
  population, the rich or the billionaires or the high net
• 56:24
  worth individuals, because then the left and the right will both
• 56:27
  get up and get angry. And that's just never going to
• 56:30
  go through. So if we're seeing the Russian
• 56:34
  central bank do this, I think it's only a matter of time till
• 56:37
  we see the US and China and all of the big powers of the world
• 56:40
  essentially follow suit. Now an interesting tidbit about
• 56:44
  what this, you know, structured bond tied to Bitcoin means.
• 56:50
  I have a here actually, I'll pull it up for you guys so you
• 56:52
  guys can read it as well. This is from the terminal here
• 56:56
  and you can see what it actually kind of covers.
• 57:00
  So initially available over the counter to a limited pool of
• 57:03
  qualified investors, the bonds let holders earn based on 2
• 57:07
  variables, the future performance of Bitcoin in U.S.
• 57:10
  dollars and any strengthening of the dollar relative to the
• 57:15
  ruble. And of course, they won't have
• 57:17
  to open a Bitcoin wallet or using foreign crypto exchanges
• 57:22
  with all transactions being processed and rubled within
• 57:25
  Russia's legal and infrastructure system.
• 57:27
  Now, tying this all the way back into the beginning, I think this
• 57:32
  is the greater trend we're seeing.
• 57:34
  Again, this goes into what we've been talking about here on
• 57:37
  Simply Bitcoin and what Bitcoin has been or Bitcoin has been
• 57:40
  talking about on Twitter, that we're all macro experts.
• 57:43
  Now. It's becoming very clear that
• 57:46
  these banks, these institutions, nation states, they all have to
• 57:50
  find an alternative to the status quo.
• 57:53
  Now, we've seen what the ECB has done in regards to the framing
• 57:56
  around CBDC's. It's usually, you know, better
• 57:58
  payments technology. We've seen how even the US is
• 58:01
  pushing that through with stable coins.
• 58:03
  It's usually about better payments.
• 58:05
  But in reality, it's about a better store of value, it's
• 58:08
  about a better money. No one wants treasuries right
• 58:11
  now. No one trusts government debt at
• 58:13
  this moment. And now we're seeing the various
• 58:16
  different financial engineering to get Bitcoin on their balance
• 58:20
  sheet. And of course, I think this is
• 58:21
  going to be huge for number go up.
• 58:23
  If we see the biggest institutions in the world start
• 58:26
  stacking Bitcoin, exposing their customers to Bitcoin.
• 58:29
  Obviously, we want you guys to take Bitcoin into custody here,
• 58:33
  but it just grows at the growing demand for Bitcoin.
• 58:37
  The growing appetite for Bitcoin is increasing and we are
• 58:41
  entering that maturing phase. I think we are and this is what
• 58:44
  I kind of want to talk about here in the culture following
• 58:46
  up. I think we are getting out of
• 58:49
  the early adopters phase of Bitcoin and we are and then we
• 58:53
  might even be out of the early innovators.
• 58:54
  We I think we are starting the very beginning of the early
• 58:57
  majority here and and I got some stats here and some just some
• 59:01
  vibes checks. I think, I think we are
• 59:03
  definitely at the early majority stage.
• 59:06
  I, I, I don't think we are no longer at the innovator stage.
• 59:11
  We were definitely at the early majority stage.
• 59:14
  Do you have an S curve that we can show everybody?
• 59:17
  Yeah, yeah, I hear. Just go, go to the next one and
• 59:19
  I'll pull it up. So.
• 59:20
  We'll, we'll, we'll be, we'll be right back in just a second.
• 59:23
  We're going to talk. We're going to hit the culture
• 59:24
  segment, ladies and gentlemen. So we'll be back just a second.
• 59:28
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  OK guys, so I was actually Nico and I were talking about this on
• 1:01:37
  Friday and it seems like more people are feeling something
• 1:01:41
  similar. Like if you didn't go to the
• 1:01:43
  conference, you know, you could sit at home and and you can you.
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  I see a comment I wish strike wasn't a 50.
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  Hey that's what you should have over to lead in bro.
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  They could do all the way down to $500.
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  Just saying. Great plug, great plug.
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  Just saying I'm just seeing someone in the chat.
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  Great plug, great plug. OK.
• 1:02:24
  As I was saying, we were talking about this and of course, if
• 1:02:28
  you're at home, it's very easy to kind of just throw eggs at
• 1:02:31
  the Bitcoin conference. But when you're there and I was
• 1:02:34
  having a few conversations basically with just the whole
• 1:02:36
  Simply Bitcoin team when we were leaving, we all kind of had this
• 1:02:39
  vibe that's like, wow, it does seem that we are going more
• 1:02:45
  mainstream. That would that there is a whole
• 1:02:46
  new audience kind of coming through the door.
• 1:02:49
  And, and part of it was guys, I'm not going to lie, like there
• 1:02:51
  was more women at the Bitcoin conference.
• 1:02:53
  So that that that's like my heuristic here.
• 1:02:56
  But we have Alex Thorne and Pete Rizzo saying something similar
• 1:03:00
  that the whole team was saying. We were kind of chatting about
• 1:03:02
  it last week. I know we did the the article
• 1:03:05
  about has Bitcoin lost its cypherpunk roots?
• 1:03:07
  Are we going mainstream? It feels like we are going a bit
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  mainstream now. Dude, regardless, Leaden goes
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  down to $500 bro, $500 more favorable terms.
• 1:03:19
  Nika's arguing with the chat Go. To leaden dot IO if you want the
• 1:03:22
  best Bitcoin collateralized loans.
• 1:03:24
  OK, All right. Here you have Alex Thorne's
• 1:03:28
  tweet here and this is more just a vibe check guys.
• 1:03:30
  This is just kind of where we are.
• 1:03:32
  We're, you know, the the temperature of where we are.
• 1:03:34
  And he goes, I've attended all of the Bitcoin conference since
• 1:03:37
  2019 and the first one, you know, in 2019's old car
• 1:03:41
  dealership to 2025, 5 Las Vegas at the Venetian.
• 1:03:44
  And this feat this year felt like a watershed moment with 35K
• 1:03:47
  attendant Bitcoin actually felt mainstream.
• 1:03:50
  Are we finally at the end of the beginning or the beginning of
• 1:03:52
  the end? And Pete Rizzo goes end of the
• 1:03:55
  beginning, officially no longer early.
• 1:03:57
  And someone goes here, 100 million users versus 8 billion
• 1:04:00
  people. We're still early.
• 1:04:02
  Now, an interesting metric that I saw here is this pulling up.
• 1:04:07
  I actually didn't catch this at the conference.
• 1:04:08
  So shouts out to Marty band and he did reflections on Bitcoin
• 1:04:11
  2025. He kind of highlighted some of
• 1:04:14
  the the key speeches or maybe some that you didn't get or
• 1:04:17
  didn't watch and and that you should check out.
• 1:04:19
  But this is the most interesting fact out of this whole whole
• 1:04:24
  thing to me that I completely missed.
• 1:04:26
  And so shouts out to Marty Band and he goes Bitcoins
• 1:04:29
  mathematical destiny and they kind of talk about the path
• 1:04:32
  towards 1,000,000 again. You know, Adam Back, Arthur
• 1:04:36
  Hayes are both saying the path to $1,000,000 is easy.
• 1:04:39
  The math is simple. It's it's going there.
• 1:04:41
  A lot of people are being bearish.
• 1:04:43
  No, it's never going to go there.
• 1:04:44
  No, it's never going to get there except for, you know, in
• 1:04:47
  10 years. But when you really compare the
• 1:04:49
  total global assets to Bitcoin, it's a tiny speck on that market
• 1:04:55
  and it's only going to continue to grow.
• 1:04:56
  Of course, in the beginning, Well, Wells Fargo saying Bitcoin
• 1:04:59
  is eating the $300 trillion bond market if it gets to $300
• 1:05:03
  trillion, I don't even know what that mass is.
• 1:05:05
  Someone do the quick mass in the chat for me.
• 1:05:07
  But here is the quote that I think is absolutely insane here.
• 1:05:11
  And we have, who is this Sean Bill?
• 1:05:14
  And, he goes, the institutional wave is just beginning.
• 1:05:17
  That's through. That's $15 million. 15,000,000 a
• 1:05:20
  coin if we get the 300 trillion and crazy win win bear he can't
• 1:05:26
  help but be bear all right here's here's here's the metric
• 1:05:31
  okay Jesus OK he goes Sean revealed that why 50% of of
• 1:05:38
  hedge fund managers personally own Bitcoin only 3% have
• 1:05:42
  allocated institutional funds. I repeat, from his research, 50%
• 1:05:48
  of hedge fund managers personally own Bitcoin, but
• 1:05:51
  they've only allocated 3% of their institutional funds.
• 1:05:55
  Guys, this is going up insane. If, if yeah, yeah, that's,
• 1:06:00
  that's a good. Essentially, guys, just going
• 1:06:03
  down to you need to be stacking get your Bitcoin position now
• 1:06:06
  because you do not want to miss out.
• 1:06:08
  I'm convinced it's going to start ripping soon.
• 1:06:10
  And here's the S curve that Nikko was talking about where
• 1:06:13
  we'll kind of speculate the 1st 2.5% are innovators.
• 1:06:16
  The next 10% is early adopters. The the next 40% is early
• 1:06:20
  majority. The last 40% is late majority.
• 1:06:23
  And at the very top of the S curve is the last 10% that are
• 1:06:27
  laggards. Now I think for a while we've
• 1:06:30
  been in this like early adopters, innovators, Phage, but
• 1:06:33
  I think we we can safely say we are entering or at the very
• 1:06:37
  beginning of this climb for the early majority.
• 1:06:39
  Now I wish I have one where we can, you know, overlay the
• 1:06:43
  Bitcoin price on this and you know, if you really zoom in here
• 1:06:48
  a little bit, this S curve adoption of Bitcoin is where it
• 1:06:52
  really starts to get fun. And I know a lot of us think
• 1:06:55
  it's going to kind of like go like this, like, you know, the
• 1:06:58
  rainbow chart and bitcoin's going to just kind of top out up
• 1:07:01
  here. I think we're, we're highly
• 1:07:03
  underestimating just how huge the early majority stage of
• 1:07:09
  Bitcoin will be. I think the best returns are
• 1:07:11
  still to come, Nico. I, I, I, I can't be convinced
• 1:07:15
  otherwise. There's just not that many
• 1:07:16
  people in Bitcoin. If you talk to people on the
• 1:07:18
  street, most people still think you are highly regarded if you
• 1:07:21
  are a Bitcoiner. They don't understand money.
• 1:07:24
  You know, they're broke, they're complaining about things.
• 1:07:26
  So I think we are entering this early majority.
• 1:07:29
  Do I know where? No, not at all.
• 1:07:31
  But it does feel like we are in the early majority stage here,
• 1:07:34
  Nico. So anyways, first of all, Niko,
• 1:07:36
  touch on this, 50% of hedge fund managers personally own Bitcoin,
• 1:07:40
  but only 3% have allocated institutional funds and then
• 1:07:43
  chat about where we are in the S curve adoption.
• 1:07:47
  Yeah, I mean, I think personally, you know, I, I would
• 1:07:51
  never, I, I don't think we're in the early adopter phase anymore.
• 1:07:54
  Could you pull up the S curve, please?
• 1:07:56
  I don't think we're in the early adopter phase anymore.
• 1:07:59
  I look when the US government is basically saying, you know, we,
• 1:08:03
  we want to stack Bitcoin and you know, when Bitcoin's at 104,000,
• 1:08:08
  I don't think we're at the early adopter phase.
• 1:08:11
  I think the early adopter phase you can argue was between 2017
• 1:08:15
  and 2024. And then what comes before early
• 1:08:19
  adopters, innovators, innovators, I would say anyone
• 1:08:23
  between anyone before the 2017 era, you're definitely in the
• 1:08:28
  kind of innovator like curve. And then I think we're on, we're
• 1:08:33
  in the beginning. You see where that dotted line
• 1:08:36
  is, everybody between early adopters and early majority.
• 1:08:39
  I think we're right there. We're on the cusp.
• 1:08:43
  And I think this thing's going to just go crazy.
• 1:08:46
  And again, just laying it out right Pro Bitcoin
• 1:08:49
  administration, not only in the US now in Poland, absolute
• 1:08:54
  stellar performance of Bitcoin of companies holding Bitcoin on
• 1:08:59
  Wall Street and then, of course, the end of operation choke .2
• 1:09:03
  point O, the end of the kind of regulatory attacks on Bitcoin
• 1:09:08
  and then the intention of the US government to acquire Bitcoin
• 1:09:12
  not only on the federal federal level, but on the state level.
• 1:09:14
  You have the great state of New Hampshire and the great state of
• 1:09:17
  Texas just passed bills ladies and gentlemen, strategic Bitcoin
• 1:09:21
  reserves are happening. So yes, like this S curve is
• 1:09:26
  about to go effing bananas. And I agree with Larry Leopard.
• 1:09:30
  I mean, I think $7,000,000 Bitcoin 20 years is bearish to
• 1:09:35
  to be perfectly honest. I think his predictions in terms
• 1:09:40
  of three to three to 100 to 500,000 in the next three to
• 1:09:43
  five years totally could see that.
• 1:09:45
  I think Bitcoin is gonna blow everyone's minds by the end of
• 1:09:52
  Trump's term. That's what he promised this
• 1:09:55
  administration just so pro Bitcoin.
• 1:09:58
  It's going to allow Bitcoin entrepreneurs to build unabated.
• 1:10:02
  And yeah, I, I think it's going to be crazy that, that that's my
• 1:10:05
  expectation. I know this cycle's a little bit
• 1:10:09
  slower than what everyone has anticipated.
• 1:10:12
  I think things are going to are are going to start to pick up.
• 1:10:15
  Just I can't tell you when though, I can't tell you when.
• 1:10:17
  Everyone's saying that by the end of the year, you know, we're
• 1:10:19
  going to have an explosive kind of cycle and this and this and
• 1:10:22
  that. But I've heard that before.
• 1:10:24
  It's just kind of wait and see, like lower your time preference.
• 1:10:27
  I think it's gonna, I think it Bitcoin's gonna surprise
• 1:10:29
  everybody, Opti. All I heard is Niko being a bear
• 1:10:33
  still on the show. We gotta kick the bears out of
• 1:10:36
  here. No more bears in the chat.
• 1:10:38
  No more bears in the chat. I.
• 1:10:39
  Can't take you off screen anymore.
• 1:10:44
  Yeah, Can I kick him off? Kick him out of here.
• 1:10:48
  Anyways guys, if you guys enjoyed today's show, make sure
• 1:10:50
  to smash that like button consider subscribing if you feel
• 1:10:53
  like we provided you value I'm your host Nico's my legendary Co
• 1:10:55
  host Optimus fields. We're changing up the show
• 1:10:58
  everybody. We're going to be doing it in
• 1:11:00
  person live in the flesh. If you guys liked it, please
• 1:11:03
  drop us a comment. We've been working up towards
• 1:11:06
  this for. Yeah, we got some some secret
• 1:11:09
  sauce coming soon. Something cooking that I think
• 1:11:12
  you guys are going to like. So again, smash the like button.
• 1:11:16
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• 1:11:19
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• 1:11:22
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• 1:11:25
  on your huddling journey. Love you all and we'll see you
• 1:11:27
  tomorrow for a brand new episode of Simply Bitcoin Live.
• 1:11:34
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• 1:11:37
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• 1:11:40
  independence.