Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / CFB Power Ratings 25-21 Previews: Florida, Missour, Louisville, SMU, Oklahoma
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: On today's show, we're diving into Florida, Missouri, Louisville, SMU,
- 0:05Speaker 1: and Oklahoma previews for the twenty twenty six college football season.
- 0:12Speaker 1: Welcome in. This is whin He Cures Everything College Football podcast.
- 0:16Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
- 0:19Speaker 1: the different socials. Today we are discussing the teams that
- 0:22Speaker 1: I have power rated number twenty five through number twenty
- 0:26Speaker 1: one for the twenty twenty six college football season. Yes,
- 0:29Speaker 1: it is only mid May, but we're doing at least
- 0:31Speaker 1: one show per week until late July or August. Then
- 0:34Speaker 1: we ramp up with more content. So you want to
- 0:36Speaker 1: make sure that you are subscribed that of course you
- 0:39Speaker 1: like the video, that you jump in the comments, you
- 0:42Speaker 1: give me your thoughts on these teams. All right, let's
- 0:44Speaker 1: not waste time. Let's get this thing rolling. Florida is
- 0:48Speaker 1: the SEC's ultimate don't bury the body team right. Way
- 0:53Speaker 1: too much talent, way too many new pieces, way too
- 0:56Speaker 1: much upside to treat this like a normal four and
- 0:58Speaker 1: eight rebuild. It's not a roster where you look at
- 1:01Speaker 1: it and say, man, they just don't have enough dudes.
- 1:03Speaker 1: That's not really the issue here. The Gators went four
- 1:06Speaker 1: and eight last season, But that thing got sideways fast right.
- 1:09Speaker 1: Injuries hit hard, especially a quarterback, defensive line as well,
- 1:13Speaker 1: and in the secondary. You go back to Week two,
- 1:16Speaker 1: that eighteen to sixteen close loss to USF, It felt
- 1:18Speaker 1: like that was the one that knocked the whole season
- 1:20Speaker 1: off track. The offense never really recovered, the team never
- 1:24Speaker 1: really found rhythm, and even with the nice upset win
- 1:27Speaker 1: at home over Texas, the season was basically spent trying
- 1:30Speaker 1: to survive. Now Here comes John Summral in year one,
- 1:33Speaker 1: and of course things get very interesting with him. He
- 1:36Speaker 1: has been kind of the sec golden boy. Every school
- 1:40Speaker 1: that had an opening wanted that guy. The expectation is
- 1:43Speaker 1: Florida's gonna play with more tempo. Offensively, get the ball
- 1:46Speaker 1: out quicker, try to create some easy explosive opportunities for
- 1:50Speaker 1: a skill group that has US right. I mean, it
- 1:54Speaker 1: matters because you're replacing pieces up front on the offensive line.
- 1:57Speaker 1: The best way to help that group is to ask
- 2:00Speaker 1: them to hold things forever. I guess tempo, rhythm, spacing,
- 2:06Speaker 1: quick decisions, get the ball to playmakers. Defensively, this thing
- 2:10Speaker 1: should be built around a pretty deep, disruptive front seven.
- 2:13Speaker 1: I think that's the identity. Florida looks like a talented
- 2:16Speaker 1: roster that had a bad season, not a bad roster
- 2:20Speaker 1: that accidentally won four games. Right. The ceiling is tied
- 2:23Speaker 1: directly to quarterback development, because they got a new dude
- 2:27Speaker 1: in there, and they've got one that is a holdover,
- 2:29Speaker 1: you know, Trebelle Jones. We'll talk about that here in
- 2:31Speaker 1: a bit. But of course, offensive line cohesion and whether
- 2:36Speaker 1: this defense can stay healthy long enough to get that
- 2:38Speaker 1: front seven to take over some ball games. Right. The
- 2:41Speaker 1: roster turnover massive. Now, a lot of schools are like this,
- 2:46Speaker 1: so it's not this isn't new, but Florida added more
- 2:49Speaker 1: than sixty new players, so it's gonna look different. Right.
- 2:53Speaker 1: The most important part is that the defensive course stayed intact,
- 2:56Speaker 1: and that's why the Gators are not exactly starting from zero, Bill,
- 3:00Speaker 1: He's got Florida rank number one nationally in defensive returning production.
- 3:04Speaker 1: That is a huge deal for a first year head coach.
- 3:06Speaker 1: You're not walking into a total rebuild on that side
- 3:09Speaker 1: of the ball. You got Miles Graham, you got Aaron
- 3:11Speaker 1: Chiles junior at linebacker, Jaden Woods, and Cameron Jones. Excuse
- 3:16Speaker 1: Cameron James excuse me, coming off the edge. And then
- 3:18Speaker 1: Bryce Thornton is back at safety. You've Ben Hanks, the
- 3:20Speaker 1: third is back at corner. You've got real sec defensive talent,
- 3:25Speaker 1: and it gives Florida a chance to be kind of
- 3:27Speaker 1: nasty upfront. If everything stays together. You just got to
- 3:30Speaker 1: make sure all the pieces gel right offensively. That's where
- 3:34Speaker 1: the questions start. DJ Lagway gone to Baylor. Now you've
- 3:38Speaker 1: got a quarterback competition, which I don't know that many
- 3:41Speaker 1: people expected it to be a quarterback competition, at least
- 3:43Speaker 1: people outside of Gainsville. Because once Aaron Filo transferred in.
- 3:47Speaker 1: You know, he's part of Buster Faulkner, that's the new
- 3:49Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. By the way, he's part of his group
- 3:52Speaker 1: that came from Georgia Tech. But Tremelle Jones Junior has
- 3:57Speaker 1: been awesome and looks great in the spring. You know,
- 4:01Speaker 1: the big advantage here is obvious. He knows the system.
- 4:03Speaker 1: Faulkner is that new offensive coordinator. The he built a
- 4:09Speaker 1: scheme that helped them pull off multiple upsets right they were.
- 4:15Speaker 1: They ran a different style of offense, and that familiarity
- 4:17Speaker 1: matters in this. If I can walk in and operate quickly.
- 4:20Speaker 1: That changes the whole timeline for this offense. They've also
- 4:24Speaker 1: got weapons. Dallas Wilson is back. Fornell Brown, the third
- 4:27Speaker 1: is back. Juwan Ball is back at running back. You
- 4:31Speaker 1: bringing Eric Singleton Junior, who you know was at Auburn
- 4:35Speaker 1: but before that was at Georgia Tech with Buster Faulkner, right,
- 4:38Speaker 1: he's got a connection to the scheme. Bailey stockstill from
- 4:41Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. The skilled talent is not the problem. Florida's
- 4:44Speaker 1: got guys that can absolutely stress a defense. The bigger
- 4:48Speaker 1: concern here is the offensive line. Austin Barber, Jake Slaughter,
- 4:53Speaker 1: and Damian George Junior are all gone. Florida did bring
- 4:56Speaker 1: in TJ. Shanahan and Egan Boyer from Penn State along
- 4:59Speaker 1: with Harrison Moore from Georgia Tech at center. So there's
- 5:03Speaker 1: some answers coming in. But everybody knows offensive line is
- 5:07Speaker 1: not just about collecting bodies. It's communication, it's chemistry, leverage,
- 5:13Speaker 1: call stunts, blitz pick ups, you know, doing all of
- 5:16Speaker 1: it together. That's the part that could take some time.
- 5:18Speaker 1: So when we talk about teams gelling, that's the most
- 5:22Speaker 1: important thing. Who can develop chemistry the best because all
- 5:27Speaker 1: these teams are gonna have transfer portal guys, that's just
- 5:30Speaker 1: the way it goes. Defensively, the portal ads are pretty
- 5:32Speaker 1: interesting on that side too. You got the kid from
- 5:36Speaker 1: Jacksonville State, Emmanuel Aguadego Agbadejo. I said that wrong, you
- 5:44Speaker 1: guys correct man. The comments Cam Dewley comes in from Kentucky,
- 5:47Speaker 1: DJ Coleman from Baylor, Kanye Clark from UCLA. These are
- 5:51Speaker 1: important because you know, the secondary is still kind of
- 5:53Speaker 1: sorting out roles, especially with Devin Moore gone to the
- 5:55Speaker 1: NFL Draft. So when you look at the strengths of
- 5:58Speaker 1: this team, number one is off right. The skill position
- 6:01Speaker 1: upside is legit. Florida does have explosive playmakers at wide
- 6:06Speaker 1: receiver and running back, and of course, as I mentioned,
- 6:09Speaker 1: if quarterback plays stabilizes, the offense can be pretty dangerous quickly.
- 6:13Speaker 1: They got a lot of speed, a lot of juice,
- 6:14Speaker 1: a lot of matchup stress, and with Faulner's tempo and
- 6:17Speaker 1: kind of quick game approach, the idea is pretty simple.
- 6:20Speaker 1: Don't make life any harder than it has to be. Like,
- 6:23Speaker 1: if you get the ball out, you reduce pressure on
- 6:25Speaker 1: the offensive line, you let the playmakers go make plays.
- 6:29Speaker 1: I do think the defensive front is going to be
- 6:31Speaker 1: a strength for this team. It's the thing that gives
- 6:34Speaker 1: Florida like a real floor if it hits Miles Graham,
- 6:37Speaker 1: Aaron Chiles, Jaden Woods, Cameron James. That group can create pressure,
- 6:42Speaker 1: they can rotate bodies, They can control games up front
- 6:44Speaker 1: as long as everything jells correctly in the SEC. If
- 6:47Speaker 1: you can disrupt without having to manufacture everything with pressure,
- 6:50Speaker 1: you got a chance every week. Another strength that I
- 6:55Speaker 1: guess would be the defense continuity number one in defense
- 7:00Speaker 1: returning production is not a throwaway. Note. These are all
- 7:03Speaker 1: experienced guys. Like a new staff has something to work
- 7:06Speaker 1: with immediately. They've got depth, they've got linebacker talent, and that,
- 7:12Speaker 1: of course can I think it can buy them time
- 7:14Speaker 1: while the offense figures itself out, especially with the way
- 7:17Speaker 1: that the schedule starts off, as you can see with
- 7:19Speaker 1: Fau and Campbell. So you got some time there before
- 7:21Speaker 1: you got to take that trip to Auburn. Let's talk
- 7:23Speaker 1: about the red flags though, because there are some red
- 7:25Speaker 1: flags here. Quarterback situation definitely unsettled. If Filow knows the system,
- 7:32Speaker 1: he's still got to win the job. But Tramelle Jones
- 7:36Speaker 1: Junior is in that battle too, and he looked better
- 7:39Speaker 1: in the spring game and from what I understand for
- 7:42Speaker 1: most of the spring like he looks like the higher
- 7:44Speaker 1: upside guy. But I don't know if maybe Filo is
- 7:49Speaker 1: the guy that is not going to turn the ball
- 7:50Speaker 1: over as much or not take as many risks, or
- 7:53Speaker 1: it doesn't make mistakes on a play to play basis,
- 7:56Speaker 1: who knows? Who knows. When somebody owns the huddle and
- 8:01Speaker 1: gives Florida some week to week stability, then they should
- 8:04Speaker 1: be all right. But until then, you can't really assume
- 8:07Speaker 1: that the offense is going to hit it ceiling, especially early.
- 8:10Speaker 1: The offensive line turnover. I think that's probably the biggest
- 8:13Speaker 1: wing factor on the entire team. You can have receivers
- 8:16Speaker 1: running open like, you can have tempo, you can have
- 8:18Speaker 1: the right play calls, but if the line can't communicate
- 8:21Speaker 1: and they can't handle pressure, everything gets stuck in the mud.
- 8:24Speaker 1: And that's that's really how things become frustrating. Right Secondary
- 8:29Speaker 1: is still sorting itself out. You know, they I'd said
- 8:32Speaker 1: they added Cam Dowley, d J. Coleman, Kanye Clark, They've
- 8:35Speaker 1: got multiple guys back, but last year's injuries, you know,
- 8:40Speaker 1: fresh in mind, that group has got to settle fast,
- 8:42Speaker 1: and for this season, that's really the derailment scenario, right
- 8:48Speaker 1: quarterback and consistency, offensive line issues, another wave of injuries,
- 8:51Speaker 1: especially in the secondary. That's that's how you get a
- 8:54Speaker 1: high upside team that ends up fighting uphill again. Because
- 8:57Speaker 1: the way this thing starts, especially in conference, it's not
- 9:01Speaker 1: the most difficult slate. But at Auburn, Ole miss at home,
- 9:05Speaker 1: at Missouri, South Carolina, at Texas, all before your bye
- 9:08Speaker 1: week and week eight, that's pretty rough. That's pretty rough.
- 9:13Speaker 1: The good news is, of course, the schedule is more
- 9:15Speaker 1: manageable than what they've dealt with them recent seasons. But
- 9:18Speaker 1: that does not mean that it's easy. Right. It's still
- 9:20Speaker 1: viewed as a top fifteen schedule nationally, as you can
- 9:22Speaker 1: see on the graphic here, number nine nationally in strength
- 9:26Speaker 1: of schedule, number five conference strength to schedule. So it
- 9:30Speaker 1: is what it is. It's the sec like nobody's going
- 9:33Speaker 1: to hand you anything with this schedule. The early part
- 9:37Speaker 1: does give you some runway to develop the offensive line,
- 9:40Speaker 1: figure out the quarterback situation before you really start walking
- 9:44Speaker 1: into Haymakers. The swing games are kind of where the
- 9:46Speaker 1: season gets decided. To me, that Week three game with
- 9:51Speaker 1: Auburn is massive, right, That's the game that can change
- 9:55Speaker 1: the mood of the entire season early. If Florida goes
- 9:57Speaker 1: on the road and gets that one, you got believe
- 10:00Speaker 1: if you're three and oh, you've got Old miss coming
- 10:03Speaker 1: into the swamp, you've got some buy in. You got
- 10:05Speaker 1: some cushion. Week five at Missouri that's another one. Road
- 10:10Speaker 1: sec games where the offensive line communication and the quarterback
- 10:13Speaker 1: boys are gonna get tested. That's not where you want
- 10:15Speaker 1: to You don't want to be guessing who you are
- 10:18Speaker 1: at that point. So by Week five against Missouri on
- 10:20Speaker 1: the road, you should know what's going on there. You
- 10:26Speaker 1: get to Oklahoma in week ten. That's my other one,
- 10:28Speaker 1: because I'm not gonna consider At Texas or Georgia as
- 10:33Speaker 1: key games because you're not expected to win those games.
- 10:38Speaker 1: You should at least be competitive, right, But when you
- 10:41Speaker 1: get to Oklahoma at home, you should know exactly what
- 10:44Speaker 1: this Florida team is by that point. If the offense
- 10:47Speaker 1: has grown up, if the line's settled, defense is healthy,
- 10:49Speaker 1: that's the game where Florida can show that they've got
- 10:53Speaker 1: a good ceiling. And then right after that you go
- 10:56Speaker 1: to Kentucky the week after that, before you get Vanderbilt
- 10:59Speaker 1: at home and then at Florida State. My fourth key
- 11:02Speaker 1: game is that road game at Kentucky. It can define
- 11:05Speaker 1: whether this is a good season or just another frustrating one. Right,
- 11:09Speaker 1: you cannot talk seriously about sec relevance and then drop
- 11:16Speaker 1: a game to Kentucky or Vanderbilt. Right, I don't think
- 11:21Speaker 1: you can do that. Florida doesn't need to be perfect,
- 11:25Speaker 1: but you got to win the middle. Right. If they
- 11:27Speaker 1: split the tough stuff and avoid the bad loss, this
- 11:30Speaker 1: can be a really respectable year one and it can
- 11:32Speaker 1: do massive things for John sumross tenure in Gainsville. If
- 11:38Speaker 1: they lose the early swing games, that pressure hits quick.
- 11:41Speaker 1: I mean, say you lose at Auburn, Well you come
- 11:44Speaker 1: back home, say you lose the Old Miss. That would
- 11:46Speaker 1: not be the worst thing in the world to lose
- 11:47Speaker 1: the Old Miss, but that would put you at too
- 11:49Speaker 1: and two. Then you got to go on the road
- 11:51Speaker 1: to Missouri, play South Carolina at home, and then at
- 11:54Speaker 1: Texas before you got a buy week before Georgia. Who
- 11:59Speaker 1: knows who knows the ceiling here? The ceiling is probably
- 12:04Speaker 1: ten wins and probably CFP discussion. Right, if the quarterback
- 12:09Speaker 1: play stabilizes pretty quick and that offensive line improves faster
- 12:12Speaker 1: than expected, and this is the version where Buster Faulkner's
- 12:15Speaker 1: system hits Filo over Jones, gives consistent play, the skilled
- 12:19Speaker 1: talent is explosive, and the defensive front seven becomes one
- 12:22Speaker 1: of the better units in the SEC. Right that ten wins.
- 12:25Speaker 1: I think the floor is. I mean, the floor could
- 12:31Speaker 1: be pretty bad. It could. I think the floor is
- 12:34Speaker 1: probably six wins, even with quarterback and consistency. If the
- 12:39Speaker 1: offensive line never gels, if you get injuries all that
- 12:43Speaker 1: that vers is not hard to see either, because we've
- 12:45Speaker 1: seen it right. Talent does not always equal rhythm, especially
- 12:48Speaker 1: with the new staff in this much roster movement. My
- 12:51Speaker 1: most likely record here is seven and five win total
- 12:56Speaker 1: is seven and a half. The over sits at plus
- 12:59Speaker 1: one to twelve under his minus one thirty eight. My
- 13:01Speaker 1: lean is the over because I like this team and
- 13:06Speaker 1: I like some role. I mean, he comes in and
- 13:07Speaker 1: he can change the culture incredibly quickly. I'm not This
- 13:16Speaker 1: is not one of my better bets. Right. This is
- 13:18Speaker 1: not an easy run to the window thing. This is
- 13:20Speaker 1: more about price and ceiling. If Florida gets to eight wins.
- 13:23Speaker 1: It's because of all the things that I talked about, Right,
- 13:27Speaker 1: The schedule gives them enough manageable spots to be able
- 13:29Speaker 1: to build momentum. Margin is incredibly thin, though seven wins
- 13:33Speaker 1: is very live. Six is not crazy if the offense
- 13:35Speaker 1: is clunky. Ten is on the board if quarterback hits
- 13:38Speaker 1: and defense stays healthy and you get some help along
- 13:40Speaker 1: the way. Right. So that's why this Florida team is
- 13:44Speaker 1: one of the more interesting high variance teams in the SEC.
- 13:49Speaker 1: Final thought here, I mean this is a high upside
- 13:52Speaker 1: Florida team with explosive talent a dangerous front seven, but
- 13:56Speaker 1: the entire season hinges on whether the quarterback battle produces
- 13:58Speaker 1: stability quickly enough. Want extra winning cures, everything content, and
- 14:04Speaker 1: a way to support the show directly head over to
- 14:06Speaker 1: buy me a coffee. Dot com slash winning cures and
- 14:09Speaker 1: become part of the community today. Missouri Tigers come in
- 14:14Speaker 1: at number twenty four, and they have built the kind
- 14:17Speaker 1: of stability that most programs would kill four, especially in
- 14:19Speaker 1: the SEC. But twenty twenty six is where the Tigers
- 14:22Speaker 1: have to prove they are more than just what the
- 14:25Speaker 1: SEC's best bully of average teams, right, Eli Drinkwitz. Now
- 14:29Speaker 1: in year seven, you got to give the man credit. Right,
- 14:32Speaker 1: Missouri has been stable. They've gone twenty nine and ten
- 14:35Speaker 1: over the last three seasons. And that's not accidental, that's
- 14:39Speaker 1: not fake, that's not some cute little hot streak. It's
- 14:42Speaker 1: a real program with real structure. The question is not
- 14:46Speaker 1: can Missouri beat bad teams. They've proven they can do that.
- 14:48Speaker 1: The question is can they beat good teams? Last year
- 14:52Speaker 1: they finished eight and five. They started five and oh,
- 14:55Speaker 1: everybody started getting excited, and then they go three and
- 14:57Speaker 1: five down the stretch, lost close games to al Obama, Vanderbilt,
- 15:01Speaker 1: and then of course the bowl game to Virginia. And
- 15:05Speaker 1: big red flag is this. They did not beat a
- 15:07Speaker 1: single team with a winning record. And that's the line
- 15:09Speaker 1: that Missouri has to cross now. Obviously, losing the quarterback
- 15:14Speaker 1: when they did didn't help things, but Perbula did come back.
- 15:21Speaker 1: It wasn't ideal. Obviously he wasn't in for the bowl game.
- 15:25Speaker 1: He was not in that for the second half of
- 15:27Speaker 1: the Vanderbilt game. You know, it is what it is.
- 15:31Speaker 1: But this is not a bad team. It's not a rebuild,
- 15:33Speaker 1: it's not a roster that you look at and go,
- 15:35Speaker 1: who like, that team's in trouble. But twenty twenty six
- 15:38Speaker 1: feels like the year where Missouri either proves it can
- 15:41Speaker 1: beat upper tier opponents or it stays in that good
- 15:44Speaker 1: but not playoff good sec tier. The identity for this
- 15:49Speaker 1: team I think is pretty clear. I mean, this should
- 15:51Speaker 1: be an offensive minded roster with better quarterback play expected
- 15:55Speaker 1: this year with the transfer from Mole Miss coming in
- 15:59Speaker 1: strong running back, wide receiver talent, which running back we'll
- 16:02Speaker 1: talk about here in a minute, and then enough pieces
- 16:04Speaker 1: to be dangerous if the transition works. Defense was elite
- 16:08Speaker 1: last season, but that side of the ball probably takes
- 16:10Speaker 1: at least a small step back because I mean they
- 16:12Speaker 1: were replacing a whole lot upfront and in the secondary.
- 16:16Speaker 1: So the Missouri season really is about one thing. Can
- 16:18Speaker 1: the offense raise the ceiling enough to offset defensive turnover?
- 16:22Speaker 1: And that starts with the roster. Biggest storyline is, of course,
- 16:25Speaker 1: quarterback Austin Simmons comes in from Ole Miss. That is
- 16:28Speaker 1: the ceiling play. That is Missouri saying we need somebody
- 16:32Speaker 1: who can take this offense from solid, which is what
- 16:35Speaker 1: they were under Perbula too dangerous and that's been the
- 16:39Speaker 1: missing piece. Missouri has been good, Missouri has been consistent.
- 16:43Speaker 1: They have been physical enough, organized enough, talented enough to
- 16:47Speaker 1: win games. But you're trying to go from eight wins
- 16:52Speaker 1: to ten wins in the SEC You need a quarterback
- 16:55Speaker 1: that can change games. And Simmons does give them that possibility. Right.
- 17:01Speaker 1: This is not just plug and play across the entire offense.
- 17:04Speaker 1: Right you lose Kirby Moore, the offensive coordinator, who is
- 17:06Speaker 1: now the head coach at Washington State, and that's a
- 17:09Speaker 1: pretty big deal. More had that offense operating efficiently. Now,
- 17:13Speaker 1: Drink brings in Chip Lindsay as the new offensive coordinator.
- 17:16Speaker 1: He was at Michigan, he was at North Carolina, he
- 17:18Speaker 1: was the Auburn offensive coordinator. He was Troy's head coach.
- 17:20Speaker 1: And I will tell you, like, I'm not totally enamored
- 17:25Speaker 1: with that move. If you've been following We've been doing
- 17:30Speaker 1: this show for ten years, I say we it's me
- 17:33Speaker 1: so low now. But if you watched the college football
- 17:38Speaker 1: show that I was on with Parker and Kyle, and
- 17:41Speaker 1: if you have watched Winning Cures Everything at any point
- 17:43Speaker 1: over the past ten years, you know that I'm not
- 17:46Speaker 1: the biggest fan of Chip Lindsay. But that does not
- 17:50Speaker 1: mean that this can't work because Eli is an offensive guy.
- 17:54Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that Lindsay can't call a good offense
- 17:56Speaker 1: for drink. But when you lose a coordinator that had things,
- 18:00Speaker 1: you better be really sure the replacement can maintain the
- 18:03Speaker 1: same level of efficiency because that stuff is not automatic. Now,
- 18:08Speaker 1: the skill talent is still there, right, you still got
- 18:11Speaker 1: wide receivers back. Kayden Lee comes in from Ole, Miss,
- 18:14Speaker 1: Caleb Goodie comes in from Cincinnati. That gives Simmons plenty
- 18:18Speaker 1: of weapons to work with. And obviously you've got a
- 18:22Speaker 1: Matt Hardy who's a huge piece of this thing. Obviously,
- 18:25Speaker 1: him being shot a couple of weeks ago or a
- 18:27Speaker 1: week ago, however long ago it was even with a
- 18:31Speaker 1: chance of returning the season, that's a that's a major loss.
- 18:34Speaker 1: It's a major uncertainty, and that kind of changes the
- 18:38Speaker 1: math of this offense. Right, they got to rebuild the
- 18:42Speaker 1: offensive line. Caden Green is back at left tackle, and yeah,
- 18:45Speaker 1: that's huge. They bring in Josh Atkins from Arizona State
- 18:49Speaker 1: at tackle, so the tackle play could actually be a strength.
- 18:52Speaker 1: But that is two left tackles, so you're gonna have
- 18:54Speaker 1: to figure out which one moves to right tackle and
- 18:56Speaker 1: et cetera. But you know, three starting offensive lineman graduated,
- 19:02Speaker 1: four backup offensive lineman transferred. That's a lot of bodies
- 19:05Speaker 1: that went out the door. So the tackle talent might
- 19:09Speaker 1: be good, but the cohesion and the depth inside that's
- 19:13Speaker 1: that's still a real question. Moving over to the defense,
- 19:17Speaker 1: like that's where the turnover gets kind of loud. Zion
- 19:19Speaker 1: Young is gone to the NFL Draft, Damon Wilson transferred
- 19:22Speaker 1: to Miami. Missouri lost their top four defensive lineman, three
- 19:25Speaker 1: of the top four linebackers, and seven of their top
- 19:28Speaker 1: nine defensive backs. I mean, that's a lot of production
- 19:31Speaker 1: and experience walking out of the building. But they did
- 19:34Speaker 1: obviously bring in help, right Robert Woodyard comes in from Auburn,
- 19:40Speaker 1: Malik Bryant comes in from Miami, Chris Graves Junior comes
- 19:43Speaker 1: in on the back end, They transferred in a ton
- 19:45Speaker 1: of secondary talent. It's not like they're just standing there
- 19:48Speaker 1: with an empty cupboard. But replacing production is not the
- 19:53Speaker 1: same thing as replacing continuity. Corey Batun in year two,
- 19:56Speaker 1: he runs that three three five four two five mix
- 20:00Speaker 1: That helps you know going into year two. But it's
- 20:03Speaker 1: a lot of new faces. There is defensive system continuity,
- 20:06Speaker 1: so I guess that's good. But when you lose that much,
- 20:09Speaker 1: I mean there's probably regression coming. Maybe it's small, like
- 20:13Speaker 1: maybe the portal editions covered up, but expecting last year's
- 20:18Speaker 1: defense to just show right back up feels if he
- 20:23Speaker 1: So let's talk about strengths on this team. The first
- 20:25Speaker 1: strength is the offensive tackle play. Obviously we talked about that.
- 20:29Speaker 1: You got Atkins coming in from Arizona State, you got
- 20:31Speaker 1: Kayden Green. That gives you something valuable. If those two
- 20:34Speaker 1: hold up, it gives Simmons a chance to operate. It
- 20:36Speaker 1: gives the offensive base to build around while the rest
- 20:39Speaker 1: of the line develops. Second strength is Austin Simmons himself,
- 20:43Speaker 1: his upside. That's the swing piece. Like if he hits
- 20:46Speaker 1: Missouri has finally got that explosive quarterback ceiling the fans
- 20:50Speaker 1: have been looking for. That's how this team stops just
- 20:53Speaker 1: being good and starts being dangerous. Because if you combine
- 20:56Speaker 1: Simmons with Donovan and Kayden Lee and Caleb and like
- 21:01Speaker 1: a healthy version of a mad hardy like, this offense
- 21:04Speaker 1: has enough orepower to really threaten teams, especially when you
- 21:06Speaker 1: look at that schedule. Defensively, I do think linebacker play
- 21:10Speaker 1: can still be good because of the incoming transfers Woodard
- 21:14Speaker 1: and Bryant matter. Nick Rodriguez is back, So even with
- 21:17Speaker 1: the losses, there's at least a path for that group
- 21:20Speaker 1: to be functional, maybe even pretty good. Red flags are
- 21:25Speaker 1: pretty obvious here, like defensive turnover is just enormous, Like
- 21:29Speaker 1: that is massive. You can like the transfers, you can
- 21:33Speaker 1: trust the staff, you can believe in the system, but
- 21:37Speaker 1: it's still a lot of question marks. Right number two,
- 21:41Speaker 1: The signature win problem is a is a big deal.
- 21:44Speaker 1: Missouri has been winning a lot of games, but they've
- 21:47Speaker 1: had kind of easier schedules. Right. Conference strength schedule is
- 21:54Speaker 1: number eighteen. That can't be right. I wonder if that
- 21:59Speaker 1: grats wrong. I mean when you've got Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas, Ole,
- 22:06Speaker 1: miss Texas, A, and m All on the schedule. Yeah,
- 22:12Speaker 1: maybe it is based on where they're playing them. Anyway,
- 22:18Speaker 1: the question is not going to go away until you
- 22:19Speaker 1: can beat upper tier teams consistently. Last year, like I said,
- 22:23Speaker 1: didn't beat a single team with a winning record. They
- 22:25Speaker 1: were close in some games, but that stuff doesn't change
- 22:28Speaker 1: your resume. Like, at some point, if you want to
- 22:30Speaker 1: be taken seriously nationally, you gotta stop almost doing it
- 22:34Speaker 1: and just do it. Number three, as far as the
- 22:38Speaker 1: weakness the offensive coordinator change, Like, that's a huge deal
- 22:41Speaker 1: to me. Kirby Moore leaving for Washington State. First off,
- 22:45Speaker 1: good for Kirby Moore. That's awesome. Chip Lindsay stepping in.
- 22:52Speaker 1: It means that Missouri's not just changing quarterbacks. They're changing
- 22:54Speaker 1: the voice, they're changing the structure. That's a lot of
- 22:58Speaker 1: stuff to manage in the same offseason. I don't I
- 23:02Speaker 1: said they're changing the structure. Maybe they're not, Maybe they're not.
- 23:06Speaker 1: Maybe it's Eli's offense. I think it's Eli drink withs
- 23:11Speaker 1: his offense. Like and that's this is the derailment scenario,
- 23:14Speaker 1: right The offense regresses without Kirby Moore. Simmons is more
- 23:17Speaker 1: flashed than consistency. He did have an issue with turnovers.
- 23:21Speaker 1: The Amade Hardy situation kind of limits the run game.
- 23:24Speaker 1: The defense takes a bigger step back than expected. If
- 23:27Speaker 1: all that stuff happens, Missouri falls right back into that
- 23:29Speaker 1: sec middle class, which is good enough to scare some teams,
- 23:33Speaker 1: not good enough to actually break through. When you look
- 23:36Speaker 1: at the schedule, like Missouri schedule was viewed as manageable
- 23:40Speaker 1: last year. This year a little more difficult. Right. The
- 23:44Speaker 1: good news is they they have more opportunities for signature wins.
- 23:49Speaker 1: The bad news is they have a lot less margin
- 23:52Speaker 1: for air. Like for me, some of the key games here,
- 23:56Speaker 1: like Week two at Kansas, I think that's a big
- 23:58Speaker 1: one right away. I mean it's early, it's on the road,
- 24:00Speaker 1: it's a rivalry game. It can set the tone because
- 24:03Speaker 1: if you don't get that one, I mean you were
- 24:05Speaker 1: in trouble because you gotta go at Mississippi State, you
- 24:09Speaker 1: got Florida and Texas A and m at home and
- 24:10Speaker 1: back to back weeks, and then you got to go
- 24:12Speaker 1: to Oxford before you're bye week. Like if Missouri is
- 24:15Speaker 1: still sorting out the offense and the rebuilt defense is
- 24:18Speaker 1: still trying to communicate, that's the kind of spot that
- 24:20Speaker 1: gets uncomfortable fast at Kansas. Week five is another one,
- 24:25Speaker 1: that home game against Florida. It's big because Florida is talented,
- 24:29Speaker 1: that's kind of a name brand. That's a game that
- 24:33Speaker 1: if you're gonna win big games, that feels like one
- 24:35Speaker 1: of them, and it could tell us a lot about
- 24:37Speaker 1: where Missouri really sits in the SEC archy if and
- 24:41Speaker 1: really Florida as well, but we're focusing on Missouri here,
- 24:44Speaker 1: Like if they want to be more than just respectable,
- 24:46Speaker 1: that's the kind of game you gotta win at home.
- 24:49Speaker 1: Week seven at Ole miss probably one of the biggest
- 24:54Speaker 1: measuring stick games on the schedule. I would think you're
- 24:59Speaker 1: gonna be an underdog Austin Simmons going against this former program.
- 25:02Speaker 1: That adds another layer to it. But more than that,
- 25:05Speaker 1: it's the exact kind of game that Missouri has got
- 25:08Speaker 1: to start winning if they're gonna be taken seriously. And
- 25:12Speaker 1: then Week twelve, like, I'm not expecting a win over
- 25:15Speaker 1: Texas at home or a win at Georgia, but as
- 25:21Speaker 1: far as key games for this season being a success,
- 25:25Speaker 1: Week twelve against Kentucky, that one at home. It's one
- 25:29Speaker 1: of those late season games where you know you've just
- 25:32Speaker 1: been through a gauntlet of Texas and Georgia, then you
- 25:35Speaker 1: get Kentucky before you host Oklahoma. You better win that one,
- 25:40Speaker 1: like that's that game is where you've got the difference
- 25:43Speaker 1: between seven and five or eight and four, or six
- 25:44Speaker 1: and six and seven and five right or between eight
- 25:48Speaker 1: and four, nine and three, Like, Missouri cannot afford to
- 25:51Speaker 1: give away games if the goal is to be taken seriously.
- 25:54Speaker 1: So the schedule impact is pretty simple, right they Missouri's
- 25:57Speaker 1: finally got a chance to prove something, But it also
- 26:00Speaker 1: means the record could get squeezed if they beat Kansas,
- 26:02Speaker 1: handle Florida at home, steal a game against A and
- 26:06Speaker 1: m or Ole, miss take care of Kentucky. Now you're
- 26:08Speaker 1: talking about a real season where you're on the verge
- 26:13Speaker 1: of the playoff. If you keep losing the games that
- 26:16Speaker 1: kind of define that perception, then we're having the same
- 26:18Speaker 1: conversation again next offseason. Ceiling for this team, like looking
- 26:23Speaker 1: at the talent, looking at what they've got, probably ten
- 26:25Speaker 1: and two. That's the version where Austin Simmons is just
- 26:28Speaker 1: an absolute star that everybody talked about before he lost
- 26:31Speaker 1: his job in Oxford. Chip Lindsay keeps the offense efficient,
- 26:36Speaker 1: you know that kind of stuff. The tackle play is strong,
- 26:38Speaker 1: am Hardy returns and gives them something. The defense reloads
- 26:42Speaker 1: fashion and expected. If all that stuff happens, Missouri could
- 26:46Speaker 1: certainly be looking at a CFP birth. But the floor
- 26:49Speaker 1: is way down there. Floor is probably five and seven.
- 26:52Speaker 1: Looking at this schedule, that's the version where the offense regresses.
- 26:59Speaker 1: You know, they can't replace Kirby Moore. Simmons doesn't become
- 27:03Speaker 1: the breakout quarterback. He turns the ball over too much,
- 27:05Speaker 1: the offensive line rebuild gets messy, defense misses all that production,
- 27:09Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff, and then the sec that
- 27:11Speaker 1: can be a problem. For me. The most likely is
- 27:15Speaker 1: seven and five. Win total is six and a half.
- 27:17Speaker 1: The over is minus one twenty eight, and the under
- 27:20Speaker 1: is plus one oh four. So my leen is to
- 27:23Speaker 1: the over, which, yeah, I'd certainly say that. And it's
- 27:26Speaker 1: not because I think that Missouri has a lot to
- 27:28Speaker 1: be some playoff contender. It's I think this program has
- 27:31Speaker 1: just been too stable under Drink wits to project a
- 27:33Speaker 1: complete collapse, even losing the offensive coordinator Kirby Moore and
- 27:37Speaker 1: bringing in Ship Lindsay, they lost Blake Baker and defense
- 27:42Speaker 1: kept rolling. Like, I think he just knows how to
- 27:44Speaker 1: run a program. I think Drink is really good at
- 27:46Speaker 1: that the offense has. The offense does have enough upside
- 27:52Speaker 1: with Simmons in that skill talent to get over the number.
- 27:55Speaker 1: Like I don't like the defensive turnover. I don't love
- 27:57Speaker 1: Kirby Moore or losing Kirby Moore. But I need to
- 28:00Speaker 1: see Missouri beat teams with the pulse before I start
- 28:03Speaker 1: pushing them into CFP conversations. Right. My final take on
- 28:07Speaker 1: Missouri it's it's an SEC program stuck between what respectability
- 28:14Speaker 1: and legitimacy and twenty twenty six is gonna determine which
- 28:18Speaker 1: side this program actually belongs on. Are you tired of
- 28:22Speaker 1: sore knees or joints slowing you down? Ghost Leaves uses
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- 28:34Speaker 1: off over at ghost leaves dot com. Louisville comes in
- 28:38Speaker 1: at number twenty three, and they are one of the
- 28:41Speaker 1: the ACC teams where I keep coming back to that
- 28:44Speaker 1: same question. Is this an actual playoff caliber team? Are
- 28:48Speaker 1: we looking at just another really good Jeff Brom team
- 28:51Speaker 1: that sits outside the top tier because Louisville is close
- 28:56Speaker 1: and they are absolutely close. Brom is now, in your
- 29:00Speaker 1: last season, the Cardinals went nine and four overall, they
- 29:03Speaker 1: went four and four in the ACC, and on the surface,
- 29:05Speaker 1: that's a really good year. Nine wins is a good year.
- 29:08Speaker 1: You win nine games, You beat Toledo in the bowl
- 29:10Speaker 1: game twenty seven to twenty two, which was way closer
- 29:12Speaker 1: than it should have been. Nobody should be acting like
- 29:15Speaker 1: the sky is falling here. But the reason it felt
- 29:18Speaker 1: a little disappointing is because Louisville had chances to be
- 29:21Speaker 1: way more than that. You lost four ACC games. One
- 29:27Speaker 1: was the blowout against SMU, one was the one point
- 29:30Speaker 1: lost to Clemson, and then you had overtime losses to
- 29:33Speaker 1: Virginia and col So you're looking at a team that
- 29:36Speaker 1: was not that far from being in a totally different conversation,
- 29:39Speaker 1: but injuries and inconsistency kind of kept them from taking
- 29:43Speaker 1: that net step towards that ACC contention and playoff discussion.
- 29:47Speaker 1: Because you had the upset win over Miami last year
- 29:51Speaker 1: like that, I think that's the key with Louisville and
- 29:52Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. You don't really have the massive games
- 29:56Speaker 1: this year, so there's not gonna be a spot for
- 29:59Speaker 1: like a big upset, which is what brom is known for.
- 30:03Speaker 1: Like now you just kind of I mean they're favored.
- 30:05Speaker 1: I've got them favored in eleven games. Like the identity
- 30:09Speaker 1: for this team is still pretty clear. It's gonna be
- 30:11Speaker 1: an aggressive, explosive offense that's built around you know, skill talent,
- 30:15Speaker 1: quarterback play. That's what Jeff Brohm does, That's what Brian
- 30:19Speaker 1: Brohm does the offensive coordinator. They're gonna create production at
- 30:22Speaker 1: the skill spots. They're gonna find matchups, They're gonna make
- 30:25Speaker 1: you defense base Defensively, it's another transfer heavy group. That's
- 30:29Speaker 1: Brom has been doing this ever since he got there.
- 30:30Speaker 1: I mean, they just the offense, just not offense. The
- 30:34Speaker 1: entire roster just kind of flips every year. But they're
- 30:37Speaker 1: gonna emphasize athleticism, depth. They're trying to rebuild quickly after
- 30:41Speaker 1: a lot of turnover. Louisville feels like one of the
- 30:44Speaker 1: ACC's true what next tier teams, I guess behind Miami.
- 30:50Speaker 1: I think it's them an SMU who will talk about
- 30:52Speaker 1: here in just a bit. Twenty twenty six is where
- 30:54Speaker 1: Brom either breaks through into real playoff contention or Louisville
- 30:59Speaker 1: stays in that category of man like, they're good, but
- 31:03Speaker 1: are they good enough? Right? Roster wise, this thing is fascinating. Offensively,
- 31:08Speaker 1: it starts with the running back Isaac Brown, one of
- 31:10Speaker 1: the most explosive players in college football, and when you
- 31:13Speaker 1: got that dude in your backfield, your offense has kind
- 31:16Speaker 1: of a built in problem solver. You can be a
- 31:19Speaker 1: little imperfect up front, you can be settling in at quarterback,
- 31:22Speaker 1: but if Isac Brown touches the ball and gets increase,
- 31:25Speaker 1: that play can change the game. They also bring back
- 31:28Speaker 1: his backup Keyshawn Brown and Trey Shawn Hurry is back
- 31:32Speaker 1: there wide receivers, so there's returning skill talent. And then
- 31:35Speaker 1: Brown went and added some more right. Trey Richardson comes
- 31:37Speaker 1: in from Vanderbilt, Lwayne McCoy comes in from Florida State.
- 31:40Speaker 1: At tight end. They added Brody Foley from Tulsa and
- 31:45Speaker 1: Justin Reid from Tulane. The past game pieces are not empty.
- 31:50Speaker 1: They lost some proven production with Chris Bell going to
- 31:52Speaker 1: the NFL Draft. Colin Lacey, of course graduated. The staff
- 31:55Speaker 1: clearly attacked that issue through the portal. But the big
- 31:58Speaker 1: swing here is the quarter back room, which brom has
- 32:01Speaker 1: done basically every year. Miller Moss is gone. It's not
- 32:06Speaker 1: that he was great last year at all, but he
- 32:09Speaker 1: was maybe a steadying voice. Louisville is banking on former
- 32:12Speaker 1: Ohio State backup Lincoln kind Holes to provide more than
- 32:16Speaker 1: what they got last year. I think that's the whole
- 32:20Speaker 1: season right there. If Kind holds a stable, if he
- 32:22Speaker 1: gives them more explosive upside, the offense can be dangerous immediately.
- 32:26Speaker 1: If he's still a projection and the timing is off.
- 32:29Speaker 1: Now you're asking the rest of the roster to carry
- 32:31Speaker 1: a lot more and maybe you can do that against
- 32:33Speaker 1: this schedule. Keen holes or kind holes, however you want
- 32:38Speaker 1: to said. I mean, he was neck and neck with
- 32:42Speaker 1: Julian Saying at Ohio State, saying, of course went on
- 32:46Speaker 1: to be a Heisman Trophy finalist. Is he really that good?
- 32:52Speaker 1: Like Ryan Day waited until week one of the season
- 32:55Speaker 1: to announce a starter. We'll see. Was it because we
- 32:59Speaker 1: didn't see a lot of them last year. There's another
- 33:03Speaker 1: massive offensive question, which is it seems like it's the
- 33:06Speaker 1: same thing with all of these teams, but it's the
- 33:09Speaker 1: offensive line. They lost all five starting offensive linemen. They
- 33:12Speaker 1: lost eight of their top ten. And that's not just
- 33:15Speaker 1: like a little concern. That's that's not a we need
- 33:19Speaker 1: to replace a garden a center. That is a complete
- 33:21Speaker 1: and total rebuild up front in the big ten in
- 33:26Speaker 1: the SEC. I don't know how doable that is, Yes,
- 33:30Speaker 1: I do. It's not doable in the acc though maybe
- 33:35Speaker 1: it is, Like I don't care how good your scheme is.
- 33:38Speaker 1: Offensive line cohesion still matters, communication matters, blitz pick up matters,
- 33:42Speaker 1: you know, run game timing and everything matters. You don't
- 33:45Speaker 1: just roll out five new guys and assume it looks
- 33:47Speaker 1: clean and we won. Defensively, it's kind of the same
- 33:49Speaker 1: deal the portal. Talent's there. Turnovers pretty wild though. Defensive
- 33:54Speaker 1: line lost twelve of their sixteen players at the position
- 33:58Speaker 1: that included nine of the top eleven, and the secondary
- 34:01Speaker 1: lost at ten of the top eleven. I mean, you're
- 34:03Speaker 1: talking about a complete rebuild across multiple levels of the defense.
- 34:07Speaker 1: Cleve Lubin is back on the defensive line, Antonio Watts
- 34:11Speaker 1: is back at linebacker. They add several guys in the
- 34:14Speaker 1: portal Miles Norwood from South Carolina, Caleb Beasley from Tennessee, TJ.
- 34:18Speaker 1: Banks from Ole, miss Tyler Thompson from North Carolina, Joshua
- 34:22Speaker 1: Donald from Houston, Dalan Russell for Miami. You got dudes.
- 34:27Speaker 1: Talent acquisition is aggressive and I like that, like it's
- 34:31Speaker 1: Louisville is not just sitting still but talent and cohesion
- 34:36Speaker 1: are two different things, right, And I don't know if
- 34:39Speaker 1: you can keep doing this year after year, just completely
- 34:42Speaker 1: rebuilding entire position groups. I don't know if they can
- 34:45Speaker 1: do that. There's also a coordinator change on defense run English,
- 34:48Speaker 1: Mark Hagan didn't have their contracts extended. Now steps up.
- 34:52Speaker 1: Mark Ivy and Steve Ellis both have been on Brom's
- 34:55Speaker 1: staff all three seasons at Louisville. They both have really
- 34:58Speaker 1: strong reputations as you know, evaluators, developers, et cetera. That
- 35:03Speaker 1: helps because it's not a total outside reset, but it
- 35:08Speaker 1: is still a new structure with a lot of new bodies.
- 35:11Speaker 1: All right, let's let's talk about strengths for this team.
- 35:14Speaker 1: Number one, of course, running back. I mean, obviously, if
- 35:18Speaker 1: you don't have anybody to block for you, that's an issue.
- 35:20Speaker 1: But Isaac Brown is the centerpiece. He kind of He
- 35:23Speaker 1: gives explosiveness and efficiency and an ability to create offense
- 35:28Speaker 1: without needing everything to be perfect. You pair him with
- 35:31Speaker 1: his back up the other Brown Cardinals have got a
- 35:34Speaker 1: backfield that can take some pressure off off the quarterback
- 35:37Speaker 1: Lincoln con Holes early. Number two is that offensive coaching continuity.
- 35:43Speaker 1: The two Broms. Of course they have. They've got a
- 35:46Speaker 1: track record of creating production at the skill product or
- 35:50Speaker 1: skill positions. Excuse me that. I think that matters even
- 35:54Speaker 1: more when you're breaking in a new quarterback and replacing
- 35:56Speaker 1: wide receiver production you're gonna make. You're gonna trust the
- 35:59Speaker 1: Broms to manufacturer touches right, create explosive opportunities, put defensives
- 36:04Speaker 1: in conflict. I think number three as far as strengths,
- 36:11Speaker 1: there's a lot of defensive depth. Again, it's not guaranteed
- 36:15Speaker 1: to be great, there are questions, but they added a
- 36:17Speaker 1: ton of bodies in the secondary and in the front seven.
- 36:20Speaker 1: It's a clear attempt to reload with athleticism. If Ivy
- 36:24Speaker 1: and Ellis can hit on some of these evaluations, I
- 36:26Speaker 1: think the defense may have enough depth to hold up.
- 36:28Speaker 1: And that's why Louisville can win this year. Like, the
- 36:33Speaker 1: schedule sets up nice explosive running back, you got a
- 36:35Speaker 1: proven offensive system, you got transfer talent everywhere, and this
- 36:38Speaker 1: schedule gives them a legitimate path. But before we get
- 36:42Speaker 1: to the schedule, let's talk about the red flags. Obviously,
- 36:45Speaker 1: quarterback uncertainty. You know, the new quarterback has a lot
- 36:50Speaker 1: of upside, but still largely unproven. And then a season
- 36:53Speaker 1: where Louisville wants to chase an a SEC title, maybe
- 36:55Speaker 1: getting a playoff. Talk. Yeah, largely unproven at quarterback is
- 36:59Speaker 1: kind of a big deal. Second concern replacing that wide
- 37:02Speaker 1: receiver depth. They have leaned heavily on explosive wide receiver
- 37:06Speaker 1: play and now you're asking some new pieces to replicate
- 37:08Speaker 1: that production immediately Richardson and McCoy and hurry. There's talent there,
- 37:17Speaker 1: but chemistry with a new quarterback doesn't happen overnight. I
- 37:21Speaker 1: trust Bram. I'm sure they'll get that fixed. The third weakness,
- 37:27Speaker 1: the third concern is defensive consistency against lead offenses. When
- 37:32Speaker 1: you lose that much defensive line production and that much
- 37:34Speaker 1: secondary production, the question is not whether you can look
- 37:37Speaker 1: good against average teams. It's whether you can get off
- 37:39Speaker 1: the field against the best offenses on the schedule. And
- 37:43Speaker 1: there's not a lot of great offenses on this schedule.
- 37:45Speaker 1: I will say that there's the hidden stuff, right quarterback chemistry,
- 37:51Speaker 1: special teams. You know, Louisville hides a lot of the offense,
- 37:57Speaker 1: like key skill players are being limited or or some
- 38:03Speaker 1: of are out. I mean the kicking game might have
- 38:04Speaker 1: a rough night here there. They've had a couple of
- 38:07Speaker 1: those over the years. Those are the kind of things
- 38:09Speaker 1: that don't always show up as a big headline, but
- 38:12Speaker 1: they decide some pretty high leverage games. The concern isn't
- 38:17Speaker 1: really talent here. It's uncertainty with this team, which it
- 38:20Speaker 1: has been ever since brom got there. Can the new
- 38:25Speaker 1: quarterbacks settle in? Can the offensive line come together? Can
- 38:27Speaker 1: the new receivers produce right away? Can the transfer heavy
- 38:31Speaker 1: defense communicate and hold up? Can special teams avoid costing
- 38:34Speaker 1: you a game like That's what separates ten and two
- 38:38Speaker 1: from seven to five. Right now, let's talky about the
- 38:43Speaker 1: fun part, which is the schedule. Louisville avoids Clemson and
- 38:47Speaker 1: Miami and conference play. That's huge if you're trying to
- 38:50Speaker 1: get to the a SEC title game. Avoiding those two
- 38:52Speaker 1: gives you a real path. It doesn't guarantee anything, but
- 38:54Speaker 1: it changes the math. The front half, though, is pretty
- 38:58Speaker 1: tricky as far as some of the key games, like
- 39:01Speaker 1: Week one, they get all missed in Nashville. That's a
- 39:03Speaker 1: monster opener, neutral site, SECU, opponent, brand name game. It's
- 39:07Speaker 1: on a Sunday. You know we will immediately find out
- 39:11Speaker 1: whether Louisvill's rebuilt ross is ready for primetime. But then
- 39:15Speaker 1: you move on to week three and you got a
- 39:17Speaker 1: home game against SMU, and after last year's thirty eight
- 39:21Speaker 1: to six blowout to SMU, I think they're gonna be
- 39:26Speaker 1: ready for that one. That's not a scheduling spot. That's
- 39:30Speaker 1: that's a measuring stick game because that's the other team
- 39:32Speaker 1: that you're going to be competing against for a spot
- 39:35Speaker 1: in that ACC championship game. It looks like like everybody
- 39:39Speaker 1: assumes that Miami is going to be there. Is it
- 39:42Speaker 1: going to be SMU, or is it gonna be Louisville
- 39:44Speaker 1: on the other side. That's an interesting spot. That's that's
- 39:48Speaker 1: a spot. So Week five is another key game. So
- 39:52Speaker 1: I've got four key games here, But the beginning of
- 39:57Speaker 1: this schedule is where the tough ones are at NC State.
- 40:00Speaker 1: It's one of those road a SEC games where you
- 40:02Speaker 1: find out if your offensive line and your quarterback are
- 40:05Speaker 1: really settled right. You've got the neutral site opener against
- 40:09Speaker 1: Ole miss if you lose that when it is what
- 40:10Speaker 1: it is, But then you get Villanova, SMU and Wake
- 40:13Speaker 1: Forest at home before you have to go on the road.
- 40:16Speaker 1: For the first time in Week five. If they want
- 40:20Speaker 1: to be in the ACC title conversation, you got to
- 40:23Speaker 1: beat NC State on the road. Another one that I
- 40:26Speaker 1: got is Week ten at Georgia Tech. There's no cross
- 40:31Speaker 1: country trip this year. Stanford comes to you after a bye.
- 40:36Speaker 1: You got to play at Syracuse after a home game
- 40:39Speaker 1: against Florida State. But you should be pretty significant favorites
- 40:43Speaker 1: in both of those. Stanford game favorite almost three touchdowns.
- 40:49Speaker 1: But Week ten at Georgia Tech is sneaky. I've got
- 40:53Speaker 1: that about a field goal favorite for Louisville. It's on
- 40:55Speaker 1: a Friday, it's a short week after Stanford. You know,
- 40:58Speaker 1: exactly the kind of spot where a good team can
- 41:01Speaker 1: get clipped if they're not locked in. I mean, the
- 41:04Speaker 1: good news is that Louisville is favored to be or sorry,
- 41:07Speaker 1: they're favored to win eleven of their games. The road
- 41:11Speaker 1: conference games are NC State, Syracuse, Georgia teching North Carolina.
- 41:14Speaker 1: Those are all winnable. Like I mentioned, there's no cross
- 41:16Speaker 1: country trips this season. You're not gonna go out and
- 41:18Speaker 1: get beat by col or Stanford or have one of
- 41:21Speaker 1: those games affect you coming back. And there's no Clemson.
- 41:24Speaker 1: There's no Miami on the schedule. That's a playoff pad schedule.
- 41:27Speaker 1: If you handle business. The early season results though, probably
- 41:32Speaker 1: decide the narrative. If you beat Ole Miss, you get
- 41:35Speaker 1: the sm un NC State clean son. I mean, we're
- 41:36Speaker 1: talking about a legitimate CFP contender. If you stumble early,
- 41:41Speaker 1: it becomes another you know, solid eight or nine win
- 41:44Speaker 1: acc season where you're wondering what could have been Like
- 41:47Speaker 1: I think the ceiling for this team is probably eleven
- 41:49Speaker 1: to one, and that's the version where Lincoln keen Holes
- 41:53Speaker 1: or kind Holes hits, Isaac Brown's a star. Offensive line
- 41:56Speaker 1: gels and that transfer heavy defense becomes athletic enough to survive.
- 42:00Speaker 1: The turnover the floor, though, I think is seven and five,
- 42:04Speaker 1: and that's the version where the quarterback plays blah, the
- 42:07Speaker 1: offensive line rebuild takes too long, right, the wide receiver
- 42:10Speaker 1: room missed, you know, defense, too many communication issues, you know,
- 42:14Speaker 1: et cetera. Most likely, the most likely record for me
- 42:18Speaker 1: is nine and three, because you can always count on
- 42:21Speaker 1: a loss somewhere with Brohm that you weren't expecting. However,
- 42:25Speaker 1: the schedule does set up a lot better this go round.
- 42:28Speaker 1: The wind total right now is at seven and a
- 42:31Speaker 1: half and The over is juiced pretty heavily minus one seventy.
- 42:36Speaker 1: The under is plus one thirty eight. My lean, obviously
- 42:38Speaker 1: is over. Yeah, minus one seventy is expensive, Like nobody
- 42:42Speaker 1: likes laying that kind of juice on a college football
- 42:44Speaker 1: win total. But from a projection standpoint, I get it.
- 42:49Speaker 1: Schedule sets up well. They're projected to be favored in
- 42:51Speaker 1: eleven straight games after the opener. The offensive ceiling with
- 42:55Speaker 1: Isaac Brown and Jeff Bromp's system, I think that's too
- 42:57Speaker 1: strong to ignore. My final thought is this. This looks
- 43:02Speaker 1: like a playoff caliber Louisville roster with explosive talent everywhere,
- 43:06Speaker 1: But this season ultimately rides on whether Lincoln kin Holes
- 43:12Speaker 1: can elevate that offense from good to championship level. That's
- 43:14Speaker 1: the biggest thing. Did they hit on quarterback and the
- 43:18Speaker 1: explosive skill position pieces? Did they hit on the line
- 43:21Speaker 1: of scrimmage? Brohm has shifted out this roster over and over,
- 43:27Speaker 1: and he seems to be pretty good at it. I'll
- 43:29Speaker 1: trust him here. I'm gonna go over. We'll see when
- 43:34Speaker 1: I do my ACC Championship preview or I guess my
- 43:39Speaker 1: AEC Conference preview. Who I'm going to take opposite Miami.
- 43:45Speaker 1: But this Louisville Tea, I mean, this schedule sets up
- 43:46Speaker 1: brilliantly for them. Hit that subscribe button and make sure
- 43:52Speaker 1: to like the video. And if you're listening to the podcast,
- 43:54Speaker 1: of course, make sure and visit Winning Cures Everything on
- 43:58Speaker 1: YouTube at YouTube dot com slash Winning Cures Everything, so
- 44:01Speaker 1: you don't miss any of our college football coverage this season.
- 44:05Speaker 1: The SMU Mustangs are in at number twenty two, and look,
- 44:09Speaker 1: SMU is no longer sneaking up on anybody. They're fast,
- 44:13Speaker 1: they're loaded, confident, They're now carrying the weight of real
- 44:17Speaker 1: ACC expectations. And this is not you know, cute little
- 44:21Speaker 1: SMU made a run. That whole thing's over RHT lastly. Now,
- 44:24Speaker 1: in year five, this program has moved from surprise contender
- 44:27Speaker 1: to a roster loaded ACC heavyweight. There's not a lot
- 44:32Speaker 1: of those in this conference. But still last season, the
- 44:34Speaker 1: most Things went nine to four overall, six and two
- 44:37Speaker 1: in the ACC. They were painfully close to something bigger.
- 44:41Speaker 1: They lost by three to Baylor, lost by one to
- 44:44Speaker 1: Wake Forest. They lost by three at Cow in a
- 44:47Speaker 1: game that would have put them in the ACC Championship.
- 44:50Speaker 1: So when you look back at the season, it's easy
- 44:51Speaker 1: to say, like, man, they were just one or two
- 44:54Speaker 1: plays away. But that's also the challenge now, Like when
- 44:57Speaker 1: you're that close, the expectations changed. Close losses are not
- 45:00Speaker 1: cute anymore. Close loss has become the difference between being
- 45:03Speaker 1: in the playoff conversation and watching somebody else play for
- 45:06Speaker 1: the league title. I mean, legitimately, if you handle that
- 45:09Speaker 1: game at Cal at the end of the season, you're
- 45:11Speaker 1: playing against Virginia for the a SEC championship and the
- 45:15Speaker 1: winner probably goes to the playoff ahead of Miami. As
- 45:20Speaker 1: far as the identity for this team, it's still very clear.
- 45:23Speaker 1: It's everybody knows this about Lashly. Fast paced, aggressive offense,
- 45:28Speaker 1: vertical passing concepts. You got athletic quarterback play because Kevin
- 45:32Speaker 1: Jennings is still there. You got a defense that's built
- 45:34Speaker 1: around speed, pressure and opportunistic secondary play. That's what SMU
- 45:39Speaker 1: football is under Rerett Lashley. The question is whether they
- 45:43Speaker 1: can replace all of that veteran production that they lost
- 45:45Speaker 1: without losing the culture and the swagger and the explosiveness
- 45:49Speaker 1: that they got him there in the first place. Because
- 45:51Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot to like, there's also a
- 45:53Speaker 1: lot to replace the offense, of course, starts with quarterback
- 45:57Speaker 1: Kevin Jennings. That matters a ton third season as a
- 46:00Speaker 1: starter in a season with this much roster movement, having
- 46:04Speaker 1: your quarterback back kind of gives you a real foundation.
- 46:07Speaker 1: Jennings represents stability and leadership and a known quantity at
- 46:12Speaker 1: the most important position on the field. And that's a
- 46:15Speaker 1: quarterback that has played in a college football playoff game,
- 46:18Speaker 1: He's played in an ACC championship game. But it's not
- 46:21Speaker 1: just him. I mean they returned a lot of their
- 46:22Speaker 1: offensive line corps, especially with PJ. Williams, Joshua Bates, Addison
- 46:27Speaker 1: Nichols back. That gives the Mustangs a chance to be
- 46:30Speaker 1: what retooled as opposed to rebuilt right, And let's not
- 46:35Speaker 1: act like they didn't lose real production. TJ. Harden's gone.
- 46:38Speaker 1: I mean he had a forty percent carry share, Jordan
- 46:40Speaker 1: Hudson's gone, Romelo Brentson is gone, our Jim Maryland's gone.
- 46:44Speaker 1: That's a lot of touches, a lot of targets, and
- 46:47Speaker 1: really just known chemistry that walked out the door. But
- 46:50Speaker 1: SMU did attack it through the portal. Yannick Smith comes
- 46:53Speaker 1: in from East Carolina, Jalen Hill comes in from Alabama.
- 46:56Speaker 1: Kendrick Rafael comes in from cal I think he's got
- 46:59Speaker 1: a chance to be really special. Randy Pittman comes in
- 47:02Speaker 1: from Florida State. I mean, you got guys from Texas,
- 47:06Speaker 1: A and M coming in. The skill talent's not empty.
- 47:09Speaker 1: In fact, it's pretty clear SMU may actually be faster
- 47:13Speaker 1: and deeper. Yeah, maybe deeper than they were overall a
- 47:18Speaker 1: year ago, but talent and production that's not always the
- 47:22Speaker 1: same thing. I've talked about that that's key. Defensively, the
- 47:25Speaker 1: turnover is even louder. Right, you return the linebackers, Brandon Booker,
- 47:29Speaker 1: Alexander Kilgore, Brandon Mianzo, thea Zono. I think that's right.
- 47:35Speaker 1: They also bring back the corners Marcellus Barnes, Junior, Speedy Nettles,
- 47:40Speaker 1: you know those guys. There's still pieces in the back seven,
- 47:43Speaker 1: but you lost multiple starting defensive linemen, several veteran depth pieces.
- 47:48Speaker 1: That's a lot of leadership, experience and physicality gone. The
- 47:51Speaker 1: portal editions are important. Javon Thomas comes in from A
- 47:54Speaker 1: and M. Jarvis Lee comes in from USF. Malcolm Alkhorn
- 47:59Speaker 1: Crowder comes in Kansas State. You got more dudes from
- 48:03Speaker 1: USF and UMass, et cetera. It tells you what SMU
- 48:07Speaker 1: is trying to do. They're gonna win with speed, depth,
- 48:09Speaker 1: competition like guys that can disrupt. The coordinator changes are
- 48:14Speaker 1: worth mentioning too. Scott Simons left he became the inside
- 48:18Speaker 1: linebacker coach for the Dallas Cowboys, and Maurice Crumb and
- 48:22Speaker 1: Ricky Hunley. They at least there is continuity there because
- 48:26Speaker 1: they're gonna be co defensive coordinators, which is what they
- 48:28Speaker 1: were before. It's just that Simons was the DC, but
- 48:31Speaker 1: this is their third season. They're gonna get a crack
- 48:33Speaker 1: at calling the defense, so you got continuity there. It's
- 48:38Speaker 1: the same thing on offense. Casey Woods left to become
- 48:41Speaker 1: the Missouri State head coach, but you still got Rob
- 48:44Speaker 1: Likings and Garon Justice that are there as co offensive coordinators.
- 48:47Speaker 1: They've both been around for multiple seasons as well, so
- 48:50Speaker 1: it's not a complete staff reset. You're just kind of
- 48:53Speaker 1: changing pieces, but the program structure is still intact. As
- 48:57Speaker 1: far as strengths for this team, number one over I
- 49:00Speaker 1: think is roster athleticism in depth, Like they look faster,
- 49:03Speaker 1: they look more competitive across the board. The portal has
- 49:07Speaker 1: been used aggressively, and the roster doesn't look like one that's,
- 49:11Speaker 1: you know, trying to hang around in the ACC. It
- 49:13Speaker 1: looks like a roster that expects to win the league.
- 49:17Speaker 1: Number two strength is it's the quarterback, Kevin Jennings right.
- 49:21Speaker 1: Quarterback stability is everything. Like when you're replacing veteran production
- 49:24Speaker 1: at receiver, running back, tight end defense. Having Jennings back
- 49:29Speaker 1: gives this team a pretty steadying force. You don't have
- 49:32Speaker 1: to start from zero offensively, and I think that's a
- 49:34Speaker 1: major advantage, especially when you had, you know, a road
- 49:38Speaker 1: game at Florida State and at Louisville in the first
- 49:40Speaker 1: three weeks. I mean, that's massive. This guy's already been there.
- 49:45Speaker 1: Number three is defensive front speed and some secondary competition.
- 49:50Speaker 1: Like they're trying to build a defense that can create disruption.
- 49:54Speaker 1: The additions that they brought in can raise the athletic ceiling.
- 49:57Speaker 1: Now the question is whether that turns into consistent stops.
- 50:01Speaker 1: But the ingredients are certainly there, right And I think
- 50:04Speaker 1: that's why assume you could win big this year. They
- 50:06Speaker 1: got the quarterback that got the system, they got enough
- 50:08Speaker 1: portal talent to reload, and they've got a culture that
- 50:11Speaker 1: expects to be in the mix, but there are red
- 50:14Speaker 1: flags obviously. First concern is you got to replace some
- 50:18Speaker 1: elite veteran production at wide receiver, at tight end, at
- 50:21Speaker 1: defensive line. You don't just replace that many experienced pieces
- 50:25Speaker 1: and assume nothing changes. You kind of wish that you
- 50:29Speaker 1: had more, Like maybe if you started the season with
- 50:32Speaker 1: UC Davis that would be a nicer, but you're starting
- 50:35Speaker 1: on the road at Florida State. You're gonna be favored,
- 50:38Speaker 1: but that's a road game in conference to start things.
- 50:42Speaker 1: Then you got UC Davis, Then you got at Louisville
- 50:45Speaker 1: right off the bat. But there's gonna be new roles,
- 50:48Speaker 1: new timing, new leadership, probably some early growing paints. The
- 50:53Speaker 1: second concern is offensive tackle consistency and just overall pass protection.
- 50:59Speaker 1: Even with three offensive lineman returning on the right side
- 51:01Speaker 1: of the line, having experience, tackle play is still kind
- 51:04Speaker 1: of a question. If you're wanting to run like a
- 51:06Speaker 1: vertical passing offense, you've got to be able to protect
- 51:08Speaker 1: long enough to let the routes develop. The third concern
- 51:11Speaker 1: is the secondary. Like they got talent back there, they
- 51:14Speaker 1: added pieces, but you still got to prove that that
- 51:17Speaker 1: spring improvement kind of translates into real games. There were
- 51:22Speaker 1: some pretty big struggles in twenty twenty five, like that
- 51:24Speaker 1: can't carry over if this team wants to win the
- 51:26Speaker 1: ACC and they gave up a lot of points to
- 51:29Speaker 1: several teams. The chemistry piece is pretty big too, like
- 51:32Speaker 1: SMU lost some emotional leaders, some NFL level contributors. Like
- 51:36Speaker 1: sometimes the new guys are more talented, but the old
- 51:38Speaker 1: guys knew how to win in your building, in your system. Right,
- 51:43Speaker 1: experience is what wins in tight moments, and that's the
- 51:46Speaker 1: challenge that you got. Now can the new faces deliver
- 51:49Speaker 1: in the biggest moments the way that the old guard did.
- 51:52Speaker 1: Let's talk about the schedule, which already brought up that
- 51:56Speaker 1: they get tested immediately. It's a tougher ACC slate. They
- 51:59Speaker 1: got nine AC Conference games, so they lost one of
- 52:02Speaker 1: the coin flips whatever that is, and they got to
- 52:04Speaker 1: deal with Notre Dame. But like, if you win the conference,
- 52:08Speaker 1: it's not gonna matter, is what it is. Florida State
- 52:12Speaker 1: in Week one is a massive measuring stick game. It's
- 52:18Speaker 1: not a warm up, Like this is not easy end
- 52:20Speaker 1: of the season. This is show me who you are
- 52:22Speaker 1: right now kind of games. Uh, they will be favored,
- 52:26Speaker 1: but if the new receivers and the rebuilt defensive front
- 52:29Speaker 1: and secondary are not ready, you're gonna find out pretty quick.
- 52:32Speaker 1: In week three they go to Louisville. That's a that's huge.
- 52:37Speaker 1: Louisville is one of those teams that SMU is gonna
- 52:39Speaker 1: be battling with in that ACC contender tier, and getting
- 52:43Speaker 1: that game early on the road is gonna let you
- 52:46Speaker 1: know which team is ready to contend nationally. Uh. Then
- 52:49Speaker 1: I don't have another key game. I mean, you could
- 52:52Speaker 1: say Virginia, but I've got them double digit favorites in one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
- 53:00Speaker 1: eight of their final nine games. But week ten at
- 53:05Speaker 1: home against Virginia Tech, I've got that as a key
- 53:08Speaker 1: game because VT comes to them on a Friday night.
- 53:13Speaker 1: Friday games are always a little weird, and that's a
- 53:17Speaker 1: spot where focus matters. If you're trying to make the playoff.
- 53:21Speaker 1: You can't afford to have a sleepy night where special teams, turnovers,
- 53:24Speaker 1: protection issues, whatever cost you. And you're playing that game
- 53:28Speaker 1: coming off of a road trip to Syracuse, which is
- 53:31Speaker 1: another key one that you kind of have to pay
- 53:34Speaker 1: attention to. But that home game against Virginia Tech. I mean,
- 53:39Speaker 1: you gotta be ready for that Week thirteen. This is
- 53:43Speaker 1: a weird key spot because I've got them favored by
- 53:45Speaker 1: almost seventeen points. But you play at Notre Dame and
- 53:50Speaker 1: then you have to go to Stanford in week thirteen.
- 53:53Speaker 1: So Stanford is the other key game. Last year, SMU
- 53:57Speaker 1: lost a cow on that final weekend and the loss
- 53:59Speaker 1: kept them out of the a SEC Championship. So now
- 54:02Speaker 1: you win the regular season West again with a chance
- 54:05Speaker 1: that the stakes could be pretty high again. And you
- 54:10Speaker 1: know that's a storyline that's kind of waiting to happen.
- 54:12Speaker 1: We don't know exactly what to expect out of Stanford.
- 54:14Speaker 1: We're not expecting much. The schedule gives SMU a chance
- 54:19Speaker 1: to make the playoffs, right, but it gives them very
- 54:22Speaker 1: little margin for error, like early road tests are going
- 54:24Speaker 1: to tell us quickly if it's and this is the
- 54:27Speaker 1: situation that Notre Dame was in last year. Right, You've
- 54:31Speaker 1: got early games that if you lose them while you're
- 54:34Speaker 1: trying to get everything to gel, it could cost you.
- 54:38Speaker 1: Because this team, I've got them favorites in ten games.
- 54:42Speaker 1: I think that if you lose, say you lose to
- 54:48Speaker 1: Louisville and you lose to Notre Dame. What's your big win?
- 54:54Speaker 1: And don't get me wrong, in twenty twenty four, I
- 54:56Speaker 1: guess it was they didn't have a big win, Like
- 55:02Speaker 1: they lost two games they played in the a SEC
- 55:04Speaker 1: Championship game. They didn't have a single big win. But
- 55:08Speaker 1: they still made the playoffs. So it is what it is.
- 55:11Speaker 1: So maybe they don't need one. But those early games
- 55:16Speaker 1: Florida State and Louisville are gonna let you know if
- 55:18Speaker 1: this is an a SEC title contender, just another good
- 55:20Speaker 1: team that replaces too much experience. The ceiling for this
- 55:23Speaker 1: team I think is eleven and one. I don't see
- 55:25Speaker 1: them beating Notre Dame. But maybe you beat Notre Dame
- 55:28Speaker 1: and you lose to Louisville. You know something that I
- 55:31Speaker 1: don't see him going undefeated. I think the ceiling is
- 55:33Speaker 1: eleven and one, and that's you know, that's the scenario
- 55:37Speaker 1: where Kevin Jennings plays like a star in the receiver room,
- 55:41Speaker 1: rebuilds quickly, the secondary takes a step forward, defensive front,
- 55:45Speaker 1: you know, creates disruption, you know, all that kind of stuff.
- 55:49Speaker 1: The floor, however, I think it's seven and five. Like
- 55:53Speaker 1: I think that's the worst they could do here. The
- 55:56Speaker 1: defense stays inconsistent, the offensive tackle is years show up
- 56:00Speaker 1: against the elite competition, not that there's a lot of
- 56:03Speaker 1: elite competition on this new school. Guys take too long
- 56:06Speaker 1: to settle, you know, those close games flip the wrong
- 56:09Speaker 1: way again. Most likely I'm gonna go nine to three.
- 56:16Speaker 1: Like the win total is eight and a half, the
- 56:18Speaker 1: over is minus one forty, the under is plus one fourteen.
- 56:22Speaker 1: My lean is the over, and laying juice on and
- 56:26Speaker 1: over is not the most fun thing in the world.
- 56:28Speaker 1: We just talked about this with Louisville. But you know,
- 56:32Speaker 1: I trust the quarterbacks stability, I trust the offensive structure.
- 56:36Speaker 1: I trust the culture that last Lely's built. I think
- 56:39Speaker 1: this roster may actually be more athletic overall than last
- 56:42Speaker 1: year's bunch. But you know, the difference between nine and
- 56:46Speaker 1: three and something bigger is gonna come down to new faces. Right.
- 56:49Speaker 1: The receiver rooms gott to hit secondary has gotta hit
- 56:52Speaker 1: defensive front like you gotta replace real production, and you
- 56:55Speaker 1: gotta win one of those big early road tests at
- 56:57Speaker 1: Florida State or Louisville to kind of prove this thing
- 56:59Speaker 1: is real. I would expect them to come out and
- 57:02Speaker 1: probably handle things on the road in week one, but
- 57:05Speaker 1: that is week one with a lot of new faces. Now,
- 57:08Speaker 1: Florida Sait's gonna have a lot of new faces too,
- 57:09Speaker 1: but you're gonna be on the road. Here my final
- 57:12Speaker 1: thought here, it's a deeper, faster SMU roster with real
- 57:19Speaker 1: playoff upside. But the Mustangs have got to prove that
- 57:22Speaker 1: these new faces can deliver in the biggest moments the
- 57:24Speaker 1: way that the old Guard sometimes did. If you can't
- 57:29Speaker 1: watch the show live, no problem, subscribe to the Winnie
- 57:32Speaker 1: Cures Everything audio podcast and never miss an episode. Of course,
- 57:36Speaker 1: make sure that you leave a five star review, and
- 57:39Speaker 1: don't forget It's available everywhere you get a podcasts, shirts, hoodies, hats,
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- 57:52Speaker 1: Winnie Cures Everything dot Com, a slash of store. The
- 57:56Speaker 1: Oklahoma Sooners, coming in at number twenty, won this year
- 58:01Speaker 1: and Oklahoma finally looks like it belongs in an SEC
- 58:05Speaker 1: street fight. Now, the Sooners have to prove that the
- 58:07Speaker 1: offense can throw punches instead of the defense do all
- 58:10Speaker 1: the dirty work, right Obviously that matters because those one
- 58:13Speaker 1: score wins from last season were all one play away
- 58:15Speaker 1: from being losses. Brent Vittibles. Now in year five. Last season,
- 58:19Speaker 1: Oklahoma went ten to three, They finished six and two
- 58:22Speaker 1: in the SEC, and they made the CFP despite major
- 58:25Speaker 1: offensive limitations after John Matii got hurt. That's the part
- 58:29Speaker 1: that should get your attention. They weren't some perfect football team.
- 58:32Speaker 1: They weren't this clean, balanced, polished machine. They were very
- 58:37Speaker 1: flawed offensively. They played one of the toughest schedules in
- 58:40Speaker 1: the country, and they still found a way to get
- 58:41Speaker 1: into the playoff. Now, the playoff lost to Alabama stings, right.
- 58:45Speaker 1: I mean Oklahoma jumped out to seventeen to nothing lead
- 58:47Speaker 1: and then lost thirty four to twenty four. That's the
- 58:50Speaker 1: kind of game that sits with you all offseason. You're
- 58:52Speaker 1: right there, you had the lead, and then the better
- 58:56Speaker 1: postseason version of Alabama showed up and took it from you.
- 58:59Speaker 1: But the regular season gave you reasons to believe Invinables
- 59:02Speaker 1: because it make no mistake, he was on the hot
- 59:05Speaker 1: seat last year. But they beat Alabama on the road,
- 59:08Speaker 1: They beat Tennessee on the road, They beat LSU at home,
- 59:10Speaker 1: now all of those you know, skinny your teeth close
- 59:14Speaker 1: wins like those could flip. I'm not acting like Oklahoma
- 59:19Speaker 1: just ran through the SEC kicking everybody's door down. But
- 59:22Speaker 1: in this league, wins or wins, and Oklahoma proved he
- 59:24Speaker 1: could win those physical, stressful, ugly SEC games. The identity
- 59:28Speaker 1: of the team is pretty clear. It's elite, aggressive defense
- 59:32Speaker 1: with some exotic pressure packages, and offensively, everything's built around
- 59:35Speaker 1: John Mattier, some tempo concepts and Ben Arbuckle trying to
- 59:39Speaker 1: create enough explosive plays to kind of make this thing
- 59:42Speaker 1: championship caliber. And the defense is already there, it's can
- 59:46Speaker 1: the offense get there? But the next step is simple, right,
- 59:49Speaker 1: You've got to pair the elite defense with a consistent,
- 59:52Speaker 1: high level offense. Like right now it looks like a
- 59:56Speaker 1: defensive first Oklahoma team that finally has got the body
- 59:59Speaker 1: type for the SEC. But if you want to go
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: from playoff team to actual title threat, the offense has
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: to carry its weight. And I think the good news is,
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: you know, for once under ventables, there's real continue to
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: hear same quarterback, same offensive coordinator, same defensive identity, Like
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: that's not a small thing. John Matier's back, and that's
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: the starting point for everything. Right When healthy, he gives
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: Oklahoma the playmaking, kind of tempo, quarterback driven offense that
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: been our book wants to run. I mean, at one
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: point a week four last year, I guess it was
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: he was the leading Heisman polling guy, Like he was
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: the favorite in the Heisman odds after last season when
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: the offense clearly got limited after his injury. Keeping him
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: healthy is probably the biggest single variable on this team.
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: Now we can talk about offensive line and whatnot, biggest
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: thing is how do you how do you keep him
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: from running because that's such a big part of his
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: game because if you run that guy against SEC defenses,
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: we gotta know what we're gonna get. We saw it
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: last year. So the offensive line, they returned multiple starters,
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: the run game has got to get better. They can't
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: spend the entire season ask ingear to be the whole offense. Like,
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: and it's gonna work against some teams, I means New Mexico, UTEP,
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: maybe Kentucky, Mississippi State, some of those, it may win
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: you some close games. But against the top of the SEC, like, eventually,
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: you got to run the ball with visigality they upgraded
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: the pass catching group. Treill Harris comes in from Virginia,
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: Parker Livingston comes in from Texas. Then you got Hayden
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: Hansen from Florida. Tight end Rocky Beers comes from Colorado
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: State Oklahoma, clearly trying to put more round Matier and
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: give Arbuckles some more answers. Which is big? I mean,
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: Dion Burk's going to the NFL. Like, you don't just
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: lose that, pretend nothing changes. It's not that he was
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: huge last year, but you know that's a big piece,
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: but the sooner as it acted with the receiver and
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: tight ended auditions and if the new piece is hit,
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: like the offense should have more flexibility defensively, Like this
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: team still looks nasty. David Stone is back, Jayden Jackson's back,
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: Taylor Ween is back off the edge, Peyton Bowen is
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: back at safety. Eli. I didn't put anything else down
- 1:02:21Speaker 1: to put Eli Courtland Gillery is back, Kip Lewis's back,
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: owhen Heineke is back, you know, seventh year after he
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: won his case against the NCAAA. Like it gives visibles
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: a ton to work with a lot of experience. Now
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: there are losses. R Mason Thomas has gone to the draft,
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: Grayson Halton has gone, Marvin Jones junior, Robert Spears Jennings
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: as he graduated. Derreck Simmons gone at right tackle. So
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: let's not act like Oklahoma returns everybody and just runs
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: it back. They don't, but they did reload. I mean,
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: you got Cole Sullivan from Michigan, Kenny Ozawala from Ozawalu
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: from UTSA, Bishop Thomas Georgia State, Emarion Harris from Arkansas. Like,
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: the most important thing is the defensive identity is already
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: established and the line of scrimmage is pretty much established.
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: But you've got pieces that I think can can fit
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: in there. I think that's the difference between Oklahoma now
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: and a couple of years ago. They're not trying to
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: figure out who they are defensively. They know they're aggressive.
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: They pressure you, they disguise things, they create confusion. The
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: roster is built in the identity that Venables wants it
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: to be, and they play fast. They're now built more
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: like you know, a typical SEC championship defense. So when
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: you look at strengths, number one is the defensive front
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: and the overall defensive identity they already play at a
- 1:03:43Speaker 1: national championship level even with some veteran losses. The talent
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: is still there. Structures, proven, venables can heat you up
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: from different places, and when you got players like Stone
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: and Jackson and Lewis and whatnot, that you can win
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: a lot of ugly games. Number two is Material and
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: Arbuckle stay together. That's huge. Quarterback play, caller continuity. That's
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: massive in this league. No new language, no new let's
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: figure each other out in September, like they know where
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: they want to be. Materier knows the system, Arbuckle knows
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: what Materi does well. It gives Oklahoma a much better
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: chance to start fast offensively. And number three is the
- 1:04:19Speaker 1: upgraded tight end and pass catcher room Like all the
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: guys that I named before, it gives Oklahoma more options
- 1:04:25Speaker 1: and if the offensive line improves even a little bit
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: in the run game, this becomes one of the more
- 1:04:29Speaker 1: balanced teams in the SEC as song as you keep
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: Material healthy. And that's why Oklahoma could win big this year.
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: Like they've got a massive ceiling even with I mean,
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: three of the first five games are huge, huge, but
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: they've got a lead defense. Quarterback continuity, upgraded weapons, same
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: staff structure, and a roster that's physical enough to live
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: in the SEC week after week just like everybody else.
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: There are red flags. First one is run game consistency
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: and offensive line what physicality. I guess it would be
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: the best way. It's the whole deal. If they can't
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: run the ball at the top fifty level, that the
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: ceiling just drops out, because every big game turns into
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: material creating some kind of magic. He'll have to extend drives.
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: He's got to build out you know, bad down and distance,
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: like you would be asking him to be Superman, and
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: that's not sustainable. The second concern, I guess, the second
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: weakness whatever is replacing veteran production along that defensive front.
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: Like I told you, I like the talent, I like
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: the identity, I trust it. But when you lose Halton
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: and r Mason Thomas and Marvin Jones Junior, like it's
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: that's legit experienced production that's gone. You got young highest
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: upside players that you know, have got to grow up
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: fast here and got to not even necessarily grow up fast,
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: because you've got some experienced guys that are coming in
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: from other places. It's just they have to they have
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: to fit in well. Uh, the third weakness that I've
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: got is offensive volatility unevenables like this is it wasn't
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: just last year. It's like a historical thing with him,
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: Like Oklahoma fans know those way too well. The defense
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: has arrived, the toughness is there, but the offense has
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: not always been steady enough to match that defensive standard.
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: And if it happens again, Oklahoma is good, maybe really good,
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: but they're not great. And I think that's the derallment scenario,
- 1:06:29Speaker 1: like where the offense becomes one dimensional, the running game
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: is still inconsistent. Material has to carry the whole thing.
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: Maybe he gets banged up again. The defense is still excellent,
- 1:06:39Speaker 1: but the offense keeps the team stuck in that good
- 1:06:42Speaker 1: not great tier. Like this schedule is is brutal. Again,
- 1:06:46Speaker 1: it is easier than last year's slate, but I mean,
- 1:06:49Speaker 1: let's be honest, like easier than ridiculous, can still be brutal.
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: I think that's fair. Let's sort through some of these
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: key games right quick. Week two at Michigan is a
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: monster early test. That's one of those games where you
- 1:07:03Speaker 1: find out immediately if your offensive line is ready to
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: be physical because you're going up against the Coyle Whittingham team.
- 1:07:09Speaker 1: If your quarterbacks in rhythm and your defensive front can
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: travel like that's that's a good test. I'm not gonna
- 1:07:17Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that Week four against Georgia on
- 1:07:20Speaker 1: the road is a key game. But Week six, after
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: the bye week against Texas, I mean, that's always enormous.
- 1:07:27Speaker 1: This year, it sits right in a stretch where Oklahoma's
- 1:07:32Speaker 1: got to prove it like more than just a playoff
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: team from last year. I mean that game is a
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: huge measuring stick for the entire venables there, especially when
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: you got blasted last year. Then I don't have another
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: key game until Week ten at Florida, because I would think,
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: like you're gonna be favorites against Kentucky, at home at
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: Mississippi State, and then at home against South Carolina. All
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: of those are losable, but all of those are winnable
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: as well, more than winnable. You're expected to win those.
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: But Week ten at Florida, and that's dangerous road sec
- 1:08:08Speaker 1: game Florida, You're not sure exactly what to expect in
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: the first year under John summerw And that is a
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: week before you get Ole miss at home and you
- 1:08:18Speaker 1: kind of owe them one, So it's late enough in
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: the season. The depth of matters. That Florida game is
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: the kind of game where a team with playoff expectations
- 1:08:28Speaker 1: can't get caught slipping right. And then my last key
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: game I've got home against Texas, A and M in
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: Week twelve. That finishing stretches, no joke, Man at Florida,
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: Ole miss A and M at Missouri. Like the Week
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: five bye is not exactly kind. That means eight straight
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: games with no break to close the season, and that
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: stretch at the end, I mean that's where depth and
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: health and offensive balance and all it's going to decide
- 1:08:56Speaker 1: the season potentially seasoned defining is that other stretch with Georgia,
- 1:09:03Speaker 1: a bye week, Texas and then Kentucky at home. I
- 1:09:07Speaker 1: mean it makes sense, but the whole back half is
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: just a stress test here. This schedule is it's either
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: going to validate Oklahoma as a national contender or it's
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: going to expose the same offensive issues that held him
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: back last season. Like, if they survive Georgia and Texas
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: with only one loss, you're probably talking about a playoff
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: host level team. If they can survive the last eight
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: game stretch. The ceiling I think for this team is
- 1:09:32Speaker 1: ten and two, and that's the version where the run
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: game becomes We'll put a number on it of top
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: fifty nationally. Where MATERII stays healthy, you know, the upgraded
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: pass catchers hit quickly, the defense reloads without losing its edge.
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: If that happens, Oklahoma as an SEC contender in a legitimate
- 1:09:50Speaker 1: CFP hosting candidate. The floor for this team, though they're
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: only favored in six games that I've got them. It's
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: the version where the offense stay is inconsistent, material gets
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: hurt again or has to carry too much, the run
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: game doesn't do enough. Defensive front isn't quite ready for
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: that schedule, especially early like in the SEC. That can
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: turn into four losses really fast, and then five and
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: then six if things snowball. I think the most likely
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: record for this team is eight and four. I think
- 1:10:19Speaker 1: that's where I'm landing. The win total is at seven
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: and five. The over is minus one twelve, the under
- 1:10:24Speaker 1: is minus one ten. It's basically a coin flip either way.
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: My lean is over just based on what I saw
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: last year, my belief in the defense, the coaching continuity,
- 1:10:37Speaker 1: and experience a quarterback, especially with some of those early games.
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: I know some Oklahoma fans are gonna hear eight and
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: four and think that sounds disappointing after you made the
- 1:10:45Speaker 1: playoff last year, And I get that, but this schedule
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: is nasty. Like the close wins from last year can
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: absolutely flip. And we gotta see what's going on with
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: Tate Sandel right the kicker, because he was automatic until
- 1:11:03Speaker 1: the playoff game last year. What does that do for confidence?
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: Can they get him feeling like himself against UTEP in
- 1:11:11Speaker 1: Week one before they go to Michigan, right, Like, offense
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: still has to prove it and be balanced Like I
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: like this team. I like the defense, I like the
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: continuity like Materi Narbuckle, I like them, but being really
- 1:11:28Speaker 1: good still might only get you to eight and four
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: if the schedule is mean enough, which I mean this
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: one is. It is gross, absolutely gross. Final thought on
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: the Sooners. This is a defense first Oklahoma team that
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: finally looks physically built for the SEC and now the
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: offense has got to prove it can carry championship expectations
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: instead of just surviving them. Right. I think that's the
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: biggest thing with this one more reminder. If you haven't
- 1:11:58Speaker 1: already liked the video, subscribe to Winning Cures Everything, and
- 1:12:02Speaker 1: of course make sure and give me your thoughts in
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: the comments. We're gonna see you again next time. Till then,
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: take care of yourself, take care of each other. God
- 1:12:09Speaker 1: bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets cash
- 1:12:13Speaker 1: this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe,
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