Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Google Historic Crash☄️Crypto Market Update

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Google Historic Crash☄️Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Google's historic crash is underway. Today, we'll break down into
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: all of that and why this may be a signal
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: that could be affecting crypto. I want to thank our
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• 0:44
  Speaker 1: This is the self-custody to you. So make sure and
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: check it out. Tell them we sent you. Let's just
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: jump in right into this first tweet. And that, of course,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: was the announcement of where Alphabet was falling. This is
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: a $ 520 billion market cap erasure. Quite possibly one of
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the biggest in the history. Actually, it is the biggest
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: in the history, and I'll show you something here in
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: a second. When you look at the chart on this,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I want to go over here to the earnings. Right
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: there is the issue, right there. 29% surprise, negative. And
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: that's the problem. When you go back to previous earnings
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: in the red, back here, you know, 10%. Even further,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: if you look back into... Previous to that in 22, 16%.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, we haven't seen anything that's been even remotely
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: close to this. So this may be a, I don't
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: know if this is a top signal, but it definitely
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: is an issue that I think there is a transition
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: underway for Google in a big way. And if you
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: look at their business in general, search is, of course,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: being cannibalized by AI. Alphabet shares, of course, all being
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: hit by that. I think revenue is going to continue
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to fall and they're going to need a new model,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: which is why I think they've also announced the custody
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: plan with what they're doing with Google for blockchain. So
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: this starts to also look at other major technologies that
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: are being disrupted. And that is the clear issue that
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the market is facing right now. So is the AI
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: trade unwinding? A lot of you guys out there right now,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: after we did our live stream yesterday and we took
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: a poll, many of you, I think it was over half,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: had AI unwinding post-2028. And some of you, I think
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: about maybe another 20% in 2027, very few of you
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: thought that this unwind would be taking place. So maybe
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: that is the case because we are brewing into a
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: next generation hit right now. And if you look at
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the model releases that Google is making, they announced it,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Gemini 4 Carbon. All of this, of course, is pointing
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: toward quantum threats, security, AI hacks. I think this is
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: going to be their angle in which they try to
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: go to market. The real question is productivity and what
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: kind of tool sets does it provide the market that
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: will be better than what we've seen both with Anthropic
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: and also with GrokBot and some of the other tools
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: out there, even with Muse. So this is a very
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: competitive layer right now, and it is one that is
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: starting to stick into the market for a $ 520 billion erasure.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: This is a serious issue. that these executives are going
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: to get punished on, I believe. And there are some
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: analysis and some strategies out there that maybe Google should take.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Take a look at this clip.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Now you have the emergence of Muse as a personal agent.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: People are using Cloud for similar things. Then the search
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: doesn't even happen in Google. That's their bigger problem. Converting
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: within Google, they can do that. That's a matter of time.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Their challenge is that they're going from 90% share in
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: search to a lot less than that in a world
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: where people start their commercial queries within a chat environment.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Are you suggesting they break up the company? I am
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: and I have been. And that's something that when the
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: stock was trading at 30 times earnings, nobody was really
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: thinking about. As it opens today at 18 or 19
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: times earnings, you have to ask yourself, why do you
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: want to penalize this very fast growing AI business? Look,
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I can make the argument that Waymo. fairly could and
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: probably will ultimately be spun off.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: And I don't even know if you think that's valued properly.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Waymo still needs capital. Waymo is going to lose money
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: for many, many years. And therefore, it makes sense for
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: that to be attached to a cash flow positive business.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: But the benefits from Google Cloud to the advertising are
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: actually relatively limited.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: All right. So the strategy, I think, is clear. And
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: this is one that we've talked about here on our
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: show about that issue, and that is that the centralization
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: of Google's products are really the problem. Now that AI
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: has really kind of reset the table, I think that
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: a spinoff on many of these products are going to
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: be in order. Be watching because I think their ad unit,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: there's some core elements around what we've seen in the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: enterprise side of things when you look at Gmail and
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: just Google Cloud in general. But I also think YouTube
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: will play into this of how they go forward. And then,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: of course, the AI unit. I'm not sure about Waymo.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: That's the real question, Mark, because it's got such a
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: long way to go to compete with where Elon is
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: heading on full self-driving. And that's the problem right now.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of players that are competing on all
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: fronts with exception of a few. And one of them,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: of course, is I think the golden child, which is YouTube,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: and then possibly their cloud business, which is potentially a
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: little bit more competitive. So we'll see how it plays out.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: But the point is, this starts to look pretty bad
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: for the market in general, and it could be signaling
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: the AI top and an unwind that could be happening. However,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: there is someone out there, the permable, that says, no,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: that's not the case. And that, of course, is Tom Lee.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: He's saying, and this, of course, coming off the FOMC
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: meeting yesterday, I came away from that meeting very, very hawkish,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: and much more bearish in terms of how this market
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: could respond with a couple of caveats. And there's many
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: things that could still come into this that are more
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: on the global macro side. But Lee says it right here,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: inflation expectations holding, no need to hike. That's not going
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: to happen. We're going to see a hike in December.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Noted oil and rates are diverging dovish. I think that's
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: also a narrative that is not yet here. Oil is
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: still going to be a problem. The real question is,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: what does it look like post midterms? And then CapEx growth,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: not necessarily inflationary. It isn't necessarily inflationary unless we're dealing
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: with a complete unwind of the AI trade and we
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: start to see everything from neoclouds and many of these
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: AI projects starting to take some real hard hits. So
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: this is a lot different than I think a lot
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: of people are prepared for. So just pay attention. And
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: there was some things that he said yesterday, and I'm
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: talking about Warsh. that you have to pay attention to.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: We drew this out in the meeting or in the
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: interview we did. We just came out of a heck
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: of a family fight. That simply tells me these governors
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: are in no way aligned. They are in a position
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: where we could see a very fast track toward advanced
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: rate cuts, or excuse me, rate hikes. Additionally, within this,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: the last statement right there, is one that you need
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Five months into the job, Warsh
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: refused to take the bait from the topic of he
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: should be cutting rates because the president told him to.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So this is something, and he dodged a lot of
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: questions yesterday. So that also tells me that this is
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: a very, very uncertain Fed. So what do they know
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: that the rest of the market does not? We're still
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: seeing mostly the market in the red today. There are
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: a handful of flyers, and I'll explain one of them,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: which is going to be hype, and we'll talk about that.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: But I want to go to a clip real quick,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: because this gets into the other major factor into this,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: and that is the midterms. Take a look. He was
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: asked repeatedly about sort of where we find ourselves in
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the political cycle. Like you can't ignore the fact that
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: the midterms are around the corner.
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, nobody will admit it. And even though the
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: increasing interest rate will not do anything to the economy
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: within the next five days, At the same time, people
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: might be unhappy. In my mind, looking at the language,
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: there is no clear justification for not raising interest rates.
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: The economy is strong, the inflation is higher than my target,
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: but we want more data. But the data is saying
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: that this is not the right interest rate for this target.
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: So the only explanation is, yeah, let's wait for the
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: elections to pass.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And it will be interesting to see how many governors
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: dissented on what this might look like. But definitely December,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: look for it, guys. It's coming. We will see a
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: rate hike. The question is, is it a quarter point
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: or do they get aggressive on this? All of this
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: will come clean after the midterms because there's going to
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: be some very clear signals that come out of that.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Another thing that plays into this is AI. And the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Fed is somewhat sensitive to this. This was BlackRock talking
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: about how sensitive they are.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: Was a lot more discussion on financial conditions. He kind
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: of opened with the financial conditions, unwilling and unable to
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: call them tight, but noticing the tightening and linking it
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: back to AI with this really important marker that AI,
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: interest rates matter to AI. So we're going to pay
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: more attention to that. And I think that's probably the
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: most important takeaway.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: So, Jeff, is the Fed put alive and well right
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: now for risk assets?
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: Oh, our favorite topic. I don't know if I can
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: say it's alive and well. He's sensitive to it. He's
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: sensitive to looking at AI. We also got another piece
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: of information that we hadn't maybe heard before when he
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: answered the Korean reporter with, I'm really more focused on
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: your markets than you may imagine me to be. That's
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: really important because he understands just how important the AI
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: driver is to growth. But certainly what we saw this
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: month was the market sort of sniffing out that AI
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: is a macro event as much as it is a
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: micro event. And if there is a undermining of it,
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: it's going to be a macro event that is primarily disinflationary.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: So there's a few things to look at that. Short term,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: you could look at inflationary. This would kind of flow
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: into infrastructure and energy strain and also the electric usage
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: that plays into Long term, it could be deflationary because
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: just productivity and automation and possibly a complete shift as
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: we start to see other industries that will be affected
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: by many of these advancements. And I think we might
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: be on the cusp of something very big there. The
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: question is, can the market hold as that times in?
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Because there's a lot happening in AI that up to now,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think we've seen the major breakthroughs. I think
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: for the first time, we are now seeing major breakthroughs,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: and that's going to value the product, which will get
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: these companies into profitability possibly faster. And that's the whole
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: issue with unwinding this. When you look at tech stocks
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: in general, it looks like a bear market out there, guys.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Is this a stealth bear market that we are entering?
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at CoreWeave. CoreWeave, I understand, being a neocloud,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: but look at Coinbase, down 56%. You've got Western Digital down,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Oracle down 50, Arm, Circle down 44, Robinhood down 40.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is, dude, this looks like crypto land
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: and it is the stock market. So think about that
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: and how does this fall out? Do we continue to
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: see this structure continue to get pressure heading into and
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: post midterms? Other points that play into this is going
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: to be the ant or anthropic IPO. And I think
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: this is a problem right now because it may be
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: another catalyst that could cause more pressure on the market
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: with some pretty heavy black hole scenarios that would play
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: out here. Because I think you're going to see a
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: very SpaceX-esque type approach to how the market will respond. Sure,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: everybody's going to play it. There'll be a handful of
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: others that will start to get away from it. But
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: I'm getting away from it just like with SpaceX. And
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: then there will be an opportunity As AI starts to
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: mature and we do see the profitability and also just
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the idea of where it's heading start to pay out,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and then you'll figure out who the winners are. And
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: this happens in every market. We've seen it multiple times before.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Look at this, though. This is Robinhood. This falls more
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: than 4%. This was their third, because despite of the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: third quarter revenue, Revenue rose 12%. The problem is, is
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that where it's earning it from and how that cycle
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: might play into this. So crypto revenue fell 55%. The
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: prediction market was the thing that was holding it up.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: So play into that and understand how the market looks
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: and says, well, the prediction market may fall off after midterms.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: This is a big deal that's leading into it. And
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: right now, that may be the case with Robinhood. Here
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: is Vlad trying to explain this. See if you think
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: it makes sense. Here we go.
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: Was event contracts in prediction markets made up a bigger
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: chunk of at least transaction-based revenue compared to crypto? I mean,
• 13:42
  Speaker 6: that's a huge.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Shift for you guys.
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: Are they kind of bailing on crypto to go into
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: event contracts? And what does that look like for you guys?
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: I don't think there's cannibalization. So I think now it
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: happens that crypto is in a relative winter. That said, though,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: you also look at Robinhood Chain, which we launched on
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: July 1st. That's been a top five chain. Even though
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: that's crypto technology, it's fundamentally different than trading Bitcoin or
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Bitcoin trading volume. So even within crypto, our business is diversifying.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: All right, so you saw Vlad there. I think the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: concern right now I would have, especially with crypto down
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: 55% in terms of earnings, prediction could get a little wobbly.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: And the real question is, do we see an RWA explosion?
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: So watch the Q4 earnings. That, of course, will come
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: out in January. That is the one that I think
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: will be significant to keep an eye on. Other things
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that are happening right now, you got Backpack and SK
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Hynix coming to a partnership deal. This is going to
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: be bringing SK Securities to bring Korean stock market trading
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: to backpack users. More validation, I think, of where this
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: next generation of finance is heading. You have all sorts
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: of new players that are making inroads to old, basically
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: old model finance that are embracing this. And I think
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: that's the key with the market. Here's SK Hynix right here.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: This is another one that has been kind of performed.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: That's the weekly guys. These guys just went public not
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: too long ago, but there's the weekly chart up from
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: what was trading right there on its low at around 136,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: holding at 161. SK Hynix, the Korean chipmaker for some
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: of you if you're new to that one itself. And
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: then if you look at the other token out there
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: that has absolutely taken off today, part in what we've
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: seen in the partnership with the NYSE, but also in general,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: we've got Elon also tweeting about this. And of course,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: that's hype. Up 17.8% right now, time of recording. This
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: thing is bumping into its all-time high, 95.10. I think
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: we're going to see this probably around the $ 100 mark
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: as the psychological question. And I'm going to ask you guys,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: do you think hype starts to go up beyond this?
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Because we've seen opportunities for a token to move with
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: a lot less narrative than what we're seeing right now
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: with Hyperliquid. And the opportunity of where this could be going,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: especially with what Duffy was saying at Swell, his kind
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: of rant around what hyperliquid means for the next generation
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: of investors. I don't know, guys. Let me know in
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: the comments if you think hype goes up. I'm going
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: to say another 50% higher than what its all-time high
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: has been around $ 100. Let me know what you guys think.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: As you guys know, we also follow what's happening in
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the Bitcoin world quite a bit. And we have some
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: of the titans out there fighting it out. And you
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: got Grant Cardone challenging Jason Calacanis of the All In
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: pod after Jason kind of said this thing goes back
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: down in the 50s, talking about Bitcoin. And the situation
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: was simple. Cardone says he's going to bet Jason a
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: million bucks if Bitcoin breaks the all-time high of $ 126, 210.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: before October 28th, 2028. I think this is a bad
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: bet for Jason. I think the other side of this
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: is that I think Cardone might win this, not Calacanis.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: I think he might win this because I do think
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin gets another bid. Question is when and how does
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: it tie into this? Now, there are always factors that
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: could play into this that could still put pressures on
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin if, in fact, we are entering a bear market.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: So Jason is very convicted on this. Remember, though, Both
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: of them are talking their book. Cardone, very heavy into Bitcoin. Calacanis,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: very into the AI play. He wants that investment opportunity
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: of every investor out there to put into AI and
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: that kind of technology. So I get it. I love
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: to see it because I think it's fun. You know,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: it's fun news. But anyway, we're going to cover this
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: a lot more this week. But guess what, guys? We
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: got midterms next week. That is going to set the
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: stage for the rest of this year and how these
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: market plays in will play out. And the real question is,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: do we get a bid in terms of a little
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: mini bear market or a mini bull market based on
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: what the midterms will result in? Stay tuned. If you
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  Speaker 1: down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 18:31
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