Latest / The Bear Market Podcast with Fexingo: Surviving Downturns, Buying the Dip, and Long-Term Resilience
Why the Yield Curve Un-inverting Is Actually Bearish
The yield curve has un-inverted — the 10-year Treasury now yields 4.63 percent, well above the 2-year at 4.26 percent. For most investors, a normal-looking curve signals the all-clear. But Lucas and Luna unpack why this steepening, when it follows a 26-month inversion, has historically preceded recessions rather than recoveries. They look at the 10-year real yield above 2 percent, the S&P 500 sitting at 7,499, and the VIX falling to 16.64 — and ask whether the market is pricing a soft landing or a delayed hangover. Drawing on the 1990, 2001, and 2008 playbooks, they explain why this…
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