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Chargers/Raiders NFL + MLB Best Bets Monday 9/15/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached into pink. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I don't
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die, at
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five. The worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's sewed back with you better off
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: dead Monday, September fifteenth. I don't even know what to
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: do anymore. Man, Uh, yesterday won three and one on
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the show. I think, and debatably, we got screwed on
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: most of the losses I guess. I mean Tennessee Titans.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: They're winning the game, the low scoring game. They had
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a three point lead I think in the third quarter
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: and completely unraveled. I didn't exactly see how it happened,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: but it went from them being up sixteen to thirteen
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: to all of a sudden, they're losing like thirty three
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: to sixteen, and then they kick a field goal for
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: no reason when they should just be trying to get touchdowns,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: even though even the touchdown wouldn't have gotten them back
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: within the spread, it would have gotten them back within
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: I think seven. At that point, I don't even know
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: what we have going on at this point anymore. Man,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It's just everything is ridiculous. Actually, it might not have
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: gotten back within seven. They're gonna be one more score,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I think, regardless of trying to get back within that number.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: But that's some bullshit. Man. The Jets, I mean not
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: even close. But Justin Fields went out of that game.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: He got concussed and he left the game, so that
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: pretty much threw off the whole game as well. I'm
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: not saying they would have covered otherwise, but who knows
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: what would have happened. So that was basically just a
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: dead play. So that's pretty bullshit as well. Phoenix in
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: WNBA was the most bullshit. I mean, you have an
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: underdog that goes into overtime, you should you're pretty much
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: on the right side of that. They covered in regulation,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: but they go ahead and they just lose an overtime
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: by seven. I mean, the game was close most of
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the way, but they looked like they were turning it
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: on in the fourth quarter. They had the lead late
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: in the game. It goes in overtime and they're like,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: all right, just do it, just get this thing done,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: and no, they lose by seven in overtime. So that
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: was brutal as well. We did have a win that
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: made me look like a genius on the Kansas City Royals.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: After they were losing two to nothing early in that game,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: they wound up blowing out Philadelphia. They bombed Philadelphia's bullpen
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: won the game ten to three. So we got that one,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: and then we had the under in the Rays Cubs
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: game that looked like it was dead almost immediately, like
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: there were I think three runs scored in the first
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: two winnings, but then it looked like it was gonna
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: actually hit because the bullpens started pitching really well. One
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: more run came in and I mean I think it
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: kind of had to because they think it was a
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: four to three game, so it wound up pushing. It
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: landed right on the seven. That was how yesterday went.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, we got to turn this around. And it's
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: a bad stretch. Baseball has been bad NFL. We're below
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: five hundred in the NFL now again. I mean, this
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: is bad, bad, bad. I thought I was gonna get
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: that WNBA win. I thought it was a good, good
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: call on that one. I thought we had Tennessee as well,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the Titans, Like I was thinking we were gonna go
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: at worst, like maybe two and three yesterday, maybe three
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: and two. We're gonna have three plays today. I don't
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: know if I love the baseball play. It's a small
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: baseball card, but I already gave you gave out the
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: NFL play, but I think the number is still available.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I'll rehash it in the Best Bet segment. Let's go, man,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: let's talk about baseball. We have nine baseball games today.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It's a Monday, so it's a bit of a shorter
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: card here for Major League Baseball. No WNBA today. The
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: team's all played yesterday, so they get a day off,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: and then I think a couple of the teams played
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Game two win their series tomorrow. All these baseball games
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: are in the evening new series for all these teams.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Cubs are at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is coming back home. They
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: were just in Washington. They actually just lost to Washington.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh returning home from Baltimore and Washington. Not a huge trip.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: But I always talk about when a team returns home
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: from a road trip tends to be a little bit
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: of a distracted spot. That's just in general, that is
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the case. They have to get back to home life.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: It can be a little bit worse when it's a
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: team that is out of it, like Pittsburgh is and
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: they just don't have a whole lot left to play
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: for here, But it is the Cubs coming into their house,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: so they might pay attention to that just because they
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: get to play against a good team potentially try to
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: spoil maybe something that the Cubs are trying to do,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: and the Cubs are still potentially trying to win the division.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I highly doubt the Cubs are going to miss the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: playoffs though, but they are still battling for a playoff
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: position here. Cubs are coming in starting a road trip
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: with momentum after they just won back to back roads series.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Excuse it won back to back series, one on the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: road against Atlanta, one at home against Tampa, and now
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: they're going back out on the road. So it is
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: definitely a better situational spot for the Cubs. Starting a
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: road trip with momentum is the better spot. The Cubs
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: have the better of the two bullpens here as far
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: as bullpen usage, and they have the better offense. I
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: mean that almost goes without saying. Even though the Cubs
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: offense hasn't been as good as of late bullpen usage
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: is a little bit lighter on the Pittsburgh side actually,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: but we'll still give the Cubs a bullpen edge here.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Cubs have Jameson tie On pitching decent season for him
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: four point one five ERA, one point one one whip
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: is pretty solid. Hasn't been as good on the road
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: four point nine to nine road ERA. He came back
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: from injury after he missed almost two months, had two
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: good starts against Milwaukee and Anaheim with seven strikeouts one
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: walk combined and only allowed one on run. A little
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: bit of a setback last time out at Atlanta. It
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: looks like he missed more time actually, so maybe he
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: was still doing with an injury. And then he came
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: back again, had a shortened start against Atlanta, give up
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: two runs in four and a third innings, two strikeouts,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: two walks. I mean, it wasn't a horrific start, but
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: not great. He may start doing better again, though, because
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of times when your schedule gets thrown off,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: that first game back after you're injured again, even though
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: he is a veteran, I mean, you could kind of
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: explain why he wasn't as good in that start. And
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: he does get kind of an easy opponent to face
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: here against Pittsburgh. He hasn't been that great against Pittsburgh,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: but he's been alright in the past and ninety six
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: at bats, twenty three to six strike at walk ratio,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: solid two seventy one average, allowed seven to ten ops,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: so not terrible numbers against Pittsburgh, but an offense as
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: weak as Pittsburgh's is, you think maybe he would do
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit better against them, but still not bad.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is gonna go with Braxton Ashcraft, who's a young
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: pitcher who's been in the bullpen for a while that
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: he's been in the starting rotation, and now it seems
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: like they're kind of limiting his starts a little bit,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: maybe because they don't want to burn him out. He's
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: had a good season overall two point four to seven ERA,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: one point two whip, a little bit worse at home
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: two point seven seven ERA. At home, he was pitching
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: pretty well. He had a few starts in a row
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: where after they put him in the starting rotation. I
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: think these were all starts he allowed one or fewer
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: runs and went at least five innings and three straight starts,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: including one against the Cobs, where he struck out four,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: had no walks at Wrigley, one on and run, a
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: lot of five innings, three hits allowed, so he did
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: well against the Cubs in that one. More recently this month,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: his two outings were limited to three innings each, though
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: had eight strikeout six walks, so the walk numbers a
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: little bit concerning. After he was really in command over
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the month of August, team definitely was a little bit
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: wild in these last couple outings. He did still hold
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers scoreless for three innings, and then he gave
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: up one ear and run against Baltimore. So he's still
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: pitching decently, but they're limiting his pitches a little bit,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: so we don't really know how deep he's gonna go
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: into this game. His numbers are good against the Cubs,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: most of the most of that is that one start
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: he had against them. They have twenty one at bats
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: against him, five strikeouts, no walks, one forty three batting
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: average three to eighty one ops. So yeah, I mean,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: one thing that you have to gauge here is like
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: how early is Pittsburgh's bullpen coming into this game, because well,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: they're decently rested, but their bullpen is probably a little
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: bit worse than what you're gonna get out of Ashcraft here.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: On the surface, it looks like maybe an under type
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: of game. I mean, maybe you don't want to trust
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, so I think maybe under in the first
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: five innings kind of makes sense. In this one. The
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: total did drop from eight and a half to eight
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of tickets on the over ninety seven percent
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, so it looks like
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: the money kind of coming in on the over, even
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: though the number looks like it did slightly drop again,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I could see both pitchers dueling here, and then if
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Ashcraft is only gonna get you three four innings, if
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: you go under in the first five, at least it'll
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: be mostly him in there and then a somewhat rested
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: bullpen coming in behind him. The money is also fading
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. They're down for minus one thirty, minus one thirteen,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets, only sixty nine percent of
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the cash and them. So the Cubs are a public
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: road favorite here, which it makes sense. I mean, the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: public if they come in and play this game, they're
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: only going to play the Cubs in this game. Professional
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: money seems to think the Cubs don't deserve to be
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: a road favorite like this. I mean, if you think
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lower scoring game, I could kind
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: of see that argument that Pittsburgh might just be hanging
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: around in that game, and maybe there's some value on
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the underdog there. But I do think the spot is
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: better for the Cubs. So I don't know, man, I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: wouldn't quite want to want to do that. Atlanta at Washington.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Washington is staying at home. They did just beat Pittsburgh,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: like I said, so Washington kind of has been able
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: to break that really bad losing momentum that they had.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Atlanta just broke their as they had a four game
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: losing stricken. They just won against Houston. I talked about
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: that yesterday. I didn't like the mat up really for Atlanta,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: but the spot for Houston was not good. Yesterday Atlanta
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: got the win. Now they're traveling after breaking their losing momentum,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip sometimes that is a good spot.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: That is a positive spot when you do that. These
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: teams both aren't going anywhere, so they're both playing out
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: the stretch. But because it is the Atlanta Braves you
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: got to figure maybe Washington will show up for this
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: game as well, because they're a big name at least
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: usually one of the contenders in the division. As far
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: as the bullpens are concerned, Atlanta has the better of
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the bullpens. Not in a great rest spot for them,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: though Washington has kind of had somewhat heavy usage from
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: THEIRS as well, so Atlanta will still have the bullpen
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: edge here. I believe Atlanta does have the better offense
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: as well. Washington's offense actually bet pretty bad here in
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the bottom third. Atlanta's kind of mediocre, so Atlanta does
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: have some advantages. I would have to give them the
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge too, but as far as recent form,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit questionable. Spencer stride Or is pitching
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: for Atlanta. Generally he is good, but he's had some
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: issues trying to come back from injury here. I think
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: he had like Tommy John surgery soth. It seems like
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: everybody's getting a little of the old T and J
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: out there. Strider, it's kind of been a lost season
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: for him. Man. He had glimpses where it looked like
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: he was his former self, but overall, four point eight
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: six Era one point four whip. That's not good. Worse
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: on the road five point one to three roadra a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: little bit better over his last three starts, going at
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: least five innings in each of them, allowing three or
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: few earned runs in each of them. Too many walks recently, though,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: multiple walks in each of those starts, and his strikeout
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: rate was a little bit down as well, so over
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: those starts he has a twelve to eight strike out
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, even though he was limiting the opponent run totals,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: so that's still not good. His command wasn't really there,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: but he did strike out eight in his last start
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs. He had two starts in a row
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs, and after the Cubs had just seen him,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: he actually did better against him the second time, and
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rate went up, so maybe that's a sign
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: he's gonna better again. He gets to face a pretty
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: weak Washington offense here, but he doesn't do well against
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I'm in forty at bats, eleven strikeouts, five walks. It's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of strikeouts, but it's a lot of walks.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: He's a lot a lot of home runs three home
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: runs three twenty five average one thy thirteen ops. I
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: don't like any of that man, So Spencer Stryder, his
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: numbers just aren't that great against Washington. He's going up
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: against Mitchell Parker, who he hasn't really been good at
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: all this season. Five point six to ninety RA, one
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: point four to four whip for Washington, a little bit
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: better at home five point two seven home ERA. His
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: last start wasn't too bad. He actually faced Miami twice
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: in a row and went seven to two thirds innings
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: last time. I gave up two earned runs only at
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: two strikeouts though two walks. Pretty good anyway though against Miami.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Not bad. Previous starting against Miami he didn't even last
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: five innings, but he still held him to turn runs.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: So he does have a two point nine to two
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: ERA over that span, but a six to three strikeout
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: walk right show is not very impressive. He has allowed
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: three or few runs in three starts in a row,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: so I guess do with that information what you will
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: having to go up against Atlanta this time. Against Atlanta overall,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have great numbers. In fifty three at bats
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: fourteen to three strike a walk ratio two eighty three
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed eight thirty one ops. So I'm gonna
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: lead to an over in this game. I mean, I'm
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: not really gonna trust either starting pitcher. I don't think
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: either bullpen is really that trustworthy either, especially not Washington.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: So the total did flip from nine juice to the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: under the nine juice to the over eighty five percent
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: tickets one hundred percent of the cash on the over.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: I don't buy that, but I think an over does
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: make sense in this one. You know, it's it's somewhat
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: tempting to actually play it. I just think the strider
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: might be somewhat better for him right now. Though maybe
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: that's not gonna be good enough to hold this game under.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean over it would be the way
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I would look at that game. Toronto at Tampa Bay.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Tampa's not decided on a starter here, so this is
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit difficult to handicap. And Toronto's started, we
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: don't really know what he's gonna do. Tampa's returning on
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. They went to just Chicago. They
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: played the White Sox and the Cubs, so not really
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: a long road trip necessarily, but it's still road trip
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: or urn. So a lot of times the team will
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: be distracted. Tampa doesn't really have anything left to play
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: for here, but Toronto is the top team in the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Al East as far as the records are concerned. So
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: having Toronto come into their place, Tampa, they might want
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to show up. They might have a little bit of
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: They have an opportunity to play spoiler, though I would
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: hope that they would not want to be too intent
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: unspoiling it for Toronto. Man, because I would much rather
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: see the Yankees drop out. If it's either Toronto or
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, I don't really care, even though I
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: am a Red Sox fan. I would much rather just
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: make sure that the Yankees are not going to be
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the winner, just in general. So I'm a hater more
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: than a lover. Man, I'm sorry. Tampa does have the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: better of these two bullpens. Hold on, gonna check my
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: audio there more toad seption there. Let me just make
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: sure my audios are right here. Toronto's bullpen has actually
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: been a little bit better again recently though after they
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: were bad for a decent stretch. But Tampa still has
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Well, then you gotta look at the
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: bullpen rest situation, which I will show you in a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: second after I check my audio here, let me see here. Yeah,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: it's all right, I just hate my voice basically, alright, Toronto, Yeah,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: they only use two relief pitchers yesterday, Tampa Bay also
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: used to. So we'll give Tampa the bullpen edge here.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Toronto has the better offense. But again, we don't know
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: who Tampa starter is gonna be. Toronto. They're going with
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: a guy who's making his major league debut here, Trey
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Yes Savage, Yay Savage, Yeah Yay is a savage. Man.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: He got me his song got me fired. Baby. I
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: don't even know how to pronounce this guy's name. Yes, Savage,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: that doesn't sound right. Yes, of age, that's the liberty
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: in model. Though I don't know, man. I'm gonna call
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: him you savage because he's he's a savage, but I
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, he is. He is the top prospect
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: in the Toronto organization. I looked him up. I mean
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: he's he's he's a big guy, six four two twenty five.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: He doesn't throw as hard as you would think. I
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: looked up his scouting. He's got a lot of good
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: movement on his pitches, though he throws like a mid
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: nineties fastball. He has a sweeper I believe, or maybe
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: it's like a slider or something along those lines. I
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: think he throws either a splitter or sink or some
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: diving fastball. And then he has a curveball that I
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: guess is a pitch that he's still kind of working on.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: So he's mostly kind of a fastball mix. But the
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: like sweeper is like ten miles an hour slower than
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: his fastball, so it's it is a speed like a
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: speed change there for him. I guess his fastball was
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: pretty good. I guess his arm angle is this like
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: high overharmed mote over overharm overarm motion where he's throwing
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: from a really like high arm angle. I guess that's
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: some advantaged and I guess I don't really know. I
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: don't know exactly how these pitcher mechanics work. He's been
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: decent a triple A this year too. His eras in
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: the threes, very short stint to triple A. He's actually
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: gone through the organization pretty quickly. I believe he was
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: drafted a couple of years back. I forget exactly what
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: year is drafted. He's still really young. He's twenty two.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: So I know he pitched against Chase Burns in college,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: like not too long ago, and Chase Burns I think
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: has been relegated to Cincinnati's bullpend right now. Burns I
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: think has a lot of potential, though this guy might
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: as well. I forget what else I was gonna say,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: but he did a couple of years ago. He did
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: actually have a collapse lung that I think happened during acupuncturists.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what that's about. Like the acupuncturist
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: was just like, oh, let me just stick this needle
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: right into your lung. Boy. You gotta think they're like
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: trained to not do that. But I don't know, but
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: I guess he's worked his way back from that. He's
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: been pitching at Triple A and as I was about
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to say, true this year short stint to Triple A.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: But he had about a three era in Triple A
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: one point one whip, so pretty solid numbers. And his
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: walk number is really the concern. I looked it up.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I think he went seventeen innings and he had like, uh,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: I think he had about twenty strikeouts and like eleven walks,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: so it was like way too many walks, So that's
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the one, the one thing you got to worry about
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: with this guy. It seems like he has a little
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: bit of wildness, but he's gonna make his major league
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: debut here. Man. Of course, when pitchers make their major
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: league debut and their decent prospect like this, they do
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: have that advantage of being unfamiliar to the opposing hitters.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: So I think he will do well here. Tampa's returning
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: over for a road trip Toronto. They're at least still
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: fighting for the division here. Toronto's got momentum, They've won
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: four games in a row. Starting a road trip with
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: momentum tends to be a focused spot for you. So
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: given that, and given that, we're probably getting a Tampa
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: bullpen game here, because Tampa was the originators of the
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: bullpen game anyway, so I'm guessing we're getting a bullpen
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: game there. I would rather take my chances with Ya
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Savage in that one, even though I know Toronto's bullpen
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: maybe a bit questionable still, but minus one fifteen is
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the price on. Toronto is the road favorite. I would
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: lean that way. Baltimore is at the White Sox here. Actually,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna hold off on that one, because that's gonna
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: be one of my plays. My apologies, I have a
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: play in Baltimore White Sox and in Cincinnati Saint Louis
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Yankees at Minnesota Red Sox are able to beat the
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Yankees last night. Luckily, well not luckily, but thankfully. The
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Red Sox scored six runs in the first inning in
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: that game, they hit for a team cycle in the
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: first inning, and then they never scored again and they
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: still hung on for the win. Garat Crochet decent start
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: for him in that game. Will Warren not decent. Getting
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: rocked in the first inning there was if you watched
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: any of that game was ridiculous, Like I had it
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: on to the first inning and the first inning kept
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: getting extended, and Will Warren was like starting to lose
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: his mind. And like Yoshida, I think hit a pop
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: fly in foul territory after the first base side, and
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Jazz Chisholm like it looked like he called everybody off.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: He's the second basement. I think he called everybody off
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: and he was gonna make the catch, and then he
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: didn't even catch it. He just led a drop. So
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: they let and it was with runners on second and
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: third and no outs, and they could have had an
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: out there with no run scoring, and it said, Chisholm
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: just focks it up again. He's one of the worst fielders,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: I think in all of baseball. And then what happened.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Of course, then Yoshida was able to drive one to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: the outfield for a sack fly. After that in the inning,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: I got extended because of that, and then the Red
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Sox got a ground ball to the right side to
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: get another run home. And then narvai Az, former Yankee
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: who is now in the Red Sox. It seems to
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: be a Yankee killer a lot of the times that
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: he's out there now, which I love that he came
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: out now with two outs and nobody elnest you think
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: the end he's gonna be over now five nothing Red
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Sox and he's just like, nah, I'm just gonna jack
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: one jack a home run out there in the center field,
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: just completely annihilated the pitch. It's like, holy crap, this
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: inning's not gonna end. It was kind of fun to
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: watch it, to be honest. So they got that extra
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: run there. But anyway, the Yankees, they're coming off a
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: big series against the Red Sox. They played Sunday night.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: You know, I like to fade teams that are coming
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: off the Sunday night game, and especially off of a
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: huge rivalry series. They lost their win streak. They're having
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: to travel from Boston and Minnesota with a quick turnaround
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: time here. Minnesota's not traveling. I don't believe they're staying
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: at home. I think right, yeah, they played Arizona at home.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Minnesota did lose yesterday, but no traveling. You know, Minnesota,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: I they're gonna get up for a game. It'll be
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: a game like this with the Yankees coming into their place,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Yank Minnesota. Not a whole lot to play for. Yankees
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: obviously still fighting for wild card positioning in for the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: division here, so they are fighting for that. They the
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Red Sox won nine of thirteen games against them this year,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: by the way, I like to just put that out there. So, yes,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot for the Yankees. So
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: my situation will read on this would be probably want
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: to look to fade the Yankees in this one. Yankees
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: not a lot of bullpen you suggest today. Minnesota didn't
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: really have any either. Neither bullpen is good, so both
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: bullpens are kind of bullpens that you want to fade.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: The Yankees bullpen actually slightly less bad than Minnesotas, so
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: surprisingly the Yankees, I guess have a bit of a
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen actually obviously have a huge offensive that year. The
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: problem with fading the Yankees here, though, is that I
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: also don't like to start any pitching matchup for Minnesota here.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Carlos Rodon is pitching for the Yankees. Good season for him,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: three point one one ERA, one point zero seven whip.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: He is a little bit worse on the road though,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: three point three to four Roady IRA. He's been pretty
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: good over the last month, except for his first start
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: in August. He's allowed three or four un runs in
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: every other start since then. The Yankees had won six
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: starts in a row of his until they lost one.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: He lost his last time out. They just got no
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: run support and the bullpen completely imploded. It was one
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: of those bullpen implosions they had in those back to
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: back games against Detroit. He did well in that start. Now,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: even though Radon did have a three point one to
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: five RA in August, he did have a thirty to
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: twenty strikeout walk race. Just his walk rate was definitely
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: a bit alarming this month. It's a little bit better
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: at nine to three, but I don't know if we
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: trust his command numbers. Though this month he's gone six
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: innings and two straight starts. He's only allowed three arned
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: runs combined across those two point twenty five VRA three
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: point one five VRA last month, despite the horrific walk numbers.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: So he is pitching better this month. I mean, he's
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: not really a guy I necessarily want to fade right now.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: He's facing a weak Minnesota lineup, but he's been good
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: against them in the past, really good actually, in forty
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: five at bats, seventeen strikeouts, three walks, one fifty six
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: average allowed four thirty one ohps. So he's not really
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: a guy I want to fade here. He dominates minnesot
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: for the most part. He's going up against Simeon Woods Richardson,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: who is not a great starter four point five four
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: point five to eight ERA here from Minnesota one point
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: three to nine whip. He is better at home though,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: three point four too home ERA. He's been pretty decent
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: this month really, over two starts, he went five innings
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: at each of them, thirteen to four strike a walk
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: ratio four point five era, so hasn't been too bad.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: He came back off from the Miners I think three
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: starts ago, had kind of a bad start against Toronto,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: then did better in his most recent two starts, but
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: they were against the White Sox and Anaheim. So he's
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: gonna have to step it up here to face the Yankees.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: But the good thing for him at least is that
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are very unfamiliar with them. Yankees only have
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: two hitters have ever faced him before, Cavee Aro and Slater,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: and they're zero for two or excuse me, oh for four,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: oh for two each. They're over four combined with two
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: strikeouts and no walks against him. So Woods Richardson hasn't
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: been of an unfamiliarity edge year, at least against the Yankees.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: So I guess do with that information what you will.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: It is a bad spot for the Yankees. They are
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: a very public, pretty heavy road favorite up for minus
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: one eighty to minus one eighty six ninety two percent
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: to take its ninety five percent of the cash on them.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I just can't bring myself to really do it with
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: the h the matchup here, But the Yankees probably are
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: overpriced and you are fading the public. If you do
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: really want to take Minnesota, you can maybe take them
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: a run on a run line, like in run line
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: situation and try to get them to hang close in
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: the game. But I still think they had the disadvantage
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: in the starting pitching and in the bullpen though, so
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: it's hard to even say, like would you even want
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: to go full game or would you want to go
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: first five on that because maybe the hangover aspect will
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: affect the Yankees more early in the game. Tough call, man,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: it is a tough call, and money is coming on
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: the over for whatever reason, it's up from eight and
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: a half to nine. Don't really see the percentages on
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: that yet, but just putting that information out there. Texas
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: and Houston probably the biggest series that's happening right now
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: besides Philly in LA. I guess Texas and Houston might
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: even be bigger though, because it has huge playoff implications.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, these teams are fighting for the division. Houston
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: has actually fallen behind Seattle now because Seattle is just
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: on fire. Texas is only a few games back. So
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: these teams they're battling, man, they're battling for playoff positioning,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Houston is in I believe the last wildcard spot right now.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Texas is right behind them, So again in Houston's you know,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: both teams have a chance to win the division too,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: So it's a crazy scenario here. Houston is returning home
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. They went to Texas, Toronto, and Atlanta.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: They lost to Texas on the road. So even though normally,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: as I always say, teams I think are going to
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: be distracted when they come back from a road trip.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Typically I have to get back to home life, it
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: could be a distraction, But in this case, I really
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: don't think so, because this is a huge divisional matchup
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: and it's revenge for Houston after they just lost at
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Texas not that long ago, So I think in that case,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: revenge does motivate you a little bit. So I don't
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: see Houston being distracted did despite the return home spot here,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I see both teams getting up for this one. Texas
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: coming in front of New York. They've lost a little
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: bit of momentum though, and they just played the Mets.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: They'd beaten Houston, they'd sweat in Milwaukee, they'd won six
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: games in a row. Beating the Mets, they won the
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: series against the Mets, and then they lost the last
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: game against the Mets. I told you I should have
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: given that one out as a play on the show Man.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: That was close to being a play for me. I
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: mentioned that on my show yesterday. I like Nolan McClay,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: and I think he probably did well again in that game.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: It was a good spot for the Mets are really
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: not a good spot for Texas, so I should have
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: done that. But now Texas. A lot of times when
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: you lose a wind streak like this, it'll hang you
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: over into the next game. So Texas might be in
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: a spot like that where they might be a little
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: bit hungover coming into this, although again they're facing Houston,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: so they can't really be totally distracted or anything like that.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Texas used a ton of their bullpen yesterday, so their
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage has been really high. Normally, I would say
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen against Houston, but a lot
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: of bullpen usage. Houston a little bit last over the
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: last couple of days with their bullpen usage has been
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit heavy recently too, but Texas's bullpen has
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: definitely worn out here, so I really wouldn't want to
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: bank on Texas's bullpen in this game, Houston has the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: better offense. Texas offense is just not very good. Texas
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: has the more talented starter on the hill here, but
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I would necessarily say he's the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: better of the two right now as far as their
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: forms considered. Jack Lighters pitching for Texas. I mean, he's
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: getting there. I think Texas kind of just rushed him
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: up to the majors and they kind of threw him
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to the fire, and he had a difficult start to
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: the majors. But he is definitely getting better. A three
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: point eight one ERA one point three to one whip
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: is still not very good, though he isn't as good
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: on the road four point four or five. Roadyra had
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: three pretty good starts in a row where he went
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: six innings in each of them, allowed two or fewer
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: on runs. The strikeout rate was really high, seven or
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: more in each of them. Last start kind of had
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: a set back again only last of four and two thirds,
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: give three earned runs on seven hits, two walks Againstlwaukee,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts in Milwaukee. They're a good offense, They're better
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: than Houston's offense, so he's faced really three offenses in
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: a row he's actually faced are better than Houston's. The
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: A's in the a Stadium no Less, where balls fly
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: out of that ballpark, and then Arizona also in their
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park, and then Milwaukee, so he is actually
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: stepping down a little bit a bit in class to
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: face Houston. His numbers are okay against Houston in the
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: past and thirty three at bats six to five strike
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is still not good though, but he's
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: sell them to to twelve batting average seven to forty
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: ohps getting a little bit higher because of the five
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: walks into them runs that he's allowed to Keratini and
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Diaz overall, I mean, he might pitch fairly well in
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: this one, though. He's going up against George Costanza Jason
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Alexander for the Astros, who it's just crazy, man, that
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the Astros acquired this guy from the A's. He's in
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: his thirties, he's never really been that great of a pitcher,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: but he's actually he's been solid for Houston. I mean,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: go figure four point one nine ERA one point three
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: to one whip overall. I know that's not good. That
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: includes his tenure with the A's. He's worse at home
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: this year five point four ERA, but remember a lot
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: of that was in that A's stadium and he was
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: with the A's, so there's not a whole lot to
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: take away from that. He has been better in his
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: home starts with Houston, for sure, although I think he's
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: still been better on the road though, even with Houston.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: With Houston overall, he's been fairly good. I mean he's
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: allowed to three or fewer earned runs in every start
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: except for his seconds or no, his third start with
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: the Houston, which was against the A's he was facing
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the A's really quickly for the second straight time. Houston
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: has also won seven or is that eight straight outings
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: of his whatever it is. That's crazy, man, Yeah, I
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: think it's eight straight outings of his now, so that's insane.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: He's still pitching well. He's coming out of seven and
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: he shut out of Toronto. He did decently against the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Yankees in the start before that. He's got a two
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: point twenty five ERA this month with those two starts
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: nine to three strikeout ratio, so he's pitching pretty well.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Against Texas, they only have two guys who've seen him before.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: He got Schioka and Peterson. They're one for four, often
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: with a double from Peterson being the only hit, two strikeouts,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: no walks, so he's pretty unfamiliar to Texas as well.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: So I think this game is an under. I mean
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: that's my lean in this one. I would actually probably
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: leave the bullpens out of it, even though normally I
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: would say these bullpens are good and want to leave
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: them in. I know, I got caught with actually Texas's
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: bullpen imploding for one of my hunters in the previous series.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Between these two teams, the total is flipped from eight
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: and a half juice to the over to eight and
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: a half juice to the under, sixty seven percent of
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: tickets on the over eighty five percent of the cash
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: on the over. But this is a fairly h not
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: a significant line move necessarily, but it's a line move
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: that's big enough that I think that that was a
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: legitimate line move. So I don't really buy the percentages there.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I would go first five innings under probably would be
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the way I would look at that game. That would
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: be my opinion. Houston's down for minus one twenty five
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: to mindus one twenty on the money line. As far
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: as the side sixty tickets ninety five percent of the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: cash on Houston, though it looks like they are taking
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: the cash in this one. I'm not quite so sure
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: about that. Again, I guess we'll we'll see, we will
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: see what happens in that game. It's not gonna be
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: a play for me, but it is a big game.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: And then we got San Francisco at Arizona. I mean,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I think at this point, both these teams are just
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch. I think San Francisco probably pretty
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: much has to realize they're not making the playoffs here,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: even though well maybe not though because I know the
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: wildcard the wildcard race is kind of a little bit
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: wide open because the Mets and the Reds both keep losing.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: So maybe maybe I'm wrong about that. Arizona's a drinking
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. They did just play at San Francisco,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: though they lost that series, so it is a little
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: bit of a quick revenge spot for Arizona. And you know,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: they might have motivation because it's a divisional rival and
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: they might want to try to spoil their divisional opponents. See,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: so I don't see Arizona not being focused here, even
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: though they are returning from San Francisco and then Minnesota.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: As I always say, teams are turning out from a
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: road trip. Usually you want to fade those teams because
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: they tend to be distracted get back to family life,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: especially when they were a team that's pretty much out
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: of it. But Arizona's also right behind San Francisco, so
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: even though they sold off at the trade deadline, so
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: to me, it just seems like they're just playing out
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: the stretch. But they're still technically not eliminated and they
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: could get above San Francisco, so there are some motivating
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: factors there. Arizona did just win the last two games
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota. I'm still not saying they're in a good
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: spot though. San Francisco's coming up playing the Dodgers. That
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: was a big series. But they got absolutely wrecked in
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the last two games against the Dodgers, so they might
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: be focused as well. Just get out of home, go
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: out on the road, start a road trip. So I
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: tend to think it is a focused spot for San Francisco.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: San Francisco has the better bullpen significantly, so huge bullpen
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: edge for San Francisco. Both teams had kind of similar
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: usage in their bullpens recently too, including yesterday, So you
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: gotta give San Francisco the bullpen edge here. I don't
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: think they in any way have the starting pitching edge,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: though Arizona has the way better offense, by the way,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: So I mean that's what you get with these two teams.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: San Francisco way better bullpen, Arizona way better offense. But
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I think Arizona has a significantly better starting pitcher here.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco has Kaiwai Tang pitching, and he has not
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: been very good. Seven point five four ERA one point
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: seven to six win. I mean, that's worse than not
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: very good seven point three one. He ran on the
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: road somehow, He's actually not as bad on the road,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: but still bad. He's only been able to make it
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: five innings twice. He hasn't pitched that much. He started
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: pitching in the majors in August this year, but he
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good. As you can see, those numbers aren't
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: very good. His sixteen to five strike a walker is
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: here this month is not horrible, but I mean even so, yeah,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rate went way up, but he was still
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: allowing a bunch of runs. He's allowing a lot of hits.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: He's getting hit around, so yeah, I mean, I love it.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Both of those were on the road, one of them
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: is in course field, so maybe you give him a
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: pass for that. But then he followed that up by
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: walking five guys against a weak Saint Louis lineup, So
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna put much stock into Tang being able
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: to do a whole lot here. He's going up against
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: a pretty potent Arizona lineup. There were only one for
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: two often, but they have five hitters who've seen him
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: before because they also have three walks against him in
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts, so in very limited sample size, you can't
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: take that much away from it. But he hasn't been
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: that good at all against Arizona. He's going up against
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: Zach Gallan, who was the much more proven pitcher, and
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: he's had a rough season, but he's actually been pitching
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: better recently, so I mean, he's been fairly good in
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: the past, so you had to kind of expect that
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: at some point he was gonna pitch better, even though
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: you could say the same thing about Fot and that
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: really hasn't happened with him. But Gallon four point eight
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: four e ra one point two eight whip on the season.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: I know it hasn't been a great season for him.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: His home ra and roadyerra are almost exactly the same.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: But he did get better. Like I said, he had
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: a two point five to seventy RA in August twenty
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: eight to nine strike a walk ratio, allowed three or
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: four earned runs in all of those starts, and in
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: his first start this month a little bit of a
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: setback against this exact San Francisco team last time out.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: So San Francisco did just see him. But they're already
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: familiar with him. I mean, they've faced him a bunch.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: He's in their division, so I don't think the fact
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: that he's facing them again in quick succession is actually
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: that bad of a thing for him. He gave up
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: five earned runs and that one walk three guys. That's
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: a bit of a concern. Two home runs allowed, give
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: up only five hits tho, I didn't give up a
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: lot of hits three strikeouts, So I mean, I don't
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: think there's a whole lot you can take away from
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: that recent start. I'm not gonna say he's in bad
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: form all of a sudden, With one little bit of
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: an outlier start. Potentially, generally he is pretty good against
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: San Francisco one hundred and six at bats, twenty eight
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: to fourteen strike a walk ratio is not good. That's
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: too many walks, but he tell them to too aweight
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: batting average and seven to fifteen ops. So I'm not
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: really ready to say the Gollon is not going to
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: do well here. I think he might Arizona drop for
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: minus one forty to minus one twenty two on the
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: money line, maybe some action kind of fading our zone
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: because they're returning home from a road trips seventy two
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, eighty four percent of the cash on Arizona though,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: so they're public. The public loves offense man, so the
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: public is going to be on Arizona. They probably also
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: see the ras and really don't want anything to do
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: with Tang and then uh, yeah, I mean other than that, Yeah,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: it seems like the professional money actually might be coming
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: back in on Arizona a little bit too. I wouldn't
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: want to do it just because Arizona is in that
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: return home spot, but I think there's absolutely no way
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: that you could play San Francisco a Tang on the
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: mound if you play Arizona, I think you have to
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: go first five innings though, because their bullpen is at
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: a big disadvantage. So I think Arizona is a huge
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge though. So that's how I look at
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: that game. It's a difficult game to handicap. Looks like
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: money kind of coming in towards an over, totals kind
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: of sitting just there at nine. Juice to the over,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I would, if you want the over, I would try
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: to get it over nine at the minus one twenty
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: rather than the nine and a half, obviously, because the
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: half is a huge difference in baseball, and the nine
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: is a key number because it breaks the four to
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: four tie eighty six percent tickets nine ten percent of
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. I don't disagree with an over.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could see Galon doing all right in
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: the start, but I could also see him giving up
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: enough runs and Tank getting blasted enough that we get
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: into the bullpens, and San Francisco's bullpen has to come
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: in early, and you know, maybe their bullpen heads just
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: gets kind of negated, and you know that type of thing.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't disagree with an over in that game either,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: And you know, teams may be playing out the stretch
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit there. Maybe it gives them a little
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: bit less focus. Potentially Philadelphia at the Dodgers here, this
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: is the other big series, is on MLB Network at
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: night after Cubs. Pittsburgh is also on MLB Network, the
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: only two televised games here. The Dodgers are returning over
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but it's only from San Francisco, so
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: it's not a huge road trip. This thing in the
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Pacific time zone not a big deal. This will be
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: a pretty big series for both teams. I think the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have more to play because they don't have a
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: big lead in their division right now. In Philly has
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: a huge lead in their division. So maybe a little
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: bit more motivation on the side of the Dodgers. Potentially,
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: both teams I think will be focused though. I mean
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: it'll be a big series. Philadelphia. As I talked about yesterday,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: I gave you out, I gave out Kansas City on
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: the show yesterday. Philadelphia, I think they lapsed and focus.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: They're bulping. Really, it was bad yesterday. I think we're
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: already getting ready for that trip. Man, knowing they had
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: to fly across country, which is still not gonna be
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: an easy thing to do. They got to fly across country.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: They just lost a long wind streak that they had
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: six winds in a row, and then they lost that
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: wind streak a lot of times. That will hang you over.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: They have to travel across country. They got to play
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: late night, which is gonna fuck with their biological clocks.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: So actually, I think the Dodgers do have an advantage
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: in this game, man, So I'm kind of leaning towards
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers as far as the situation. Even though they're
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: returning home, it's not a typical return home spot. Like
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I said, it was a very short road trip both
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: distance wise and time wise. Dodgers are basically only use
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: two relievers. Yesterday, the use Henriquez for one pitch, Like,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: who cares. These bullpens are both bad, but I think
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers' bullpen is actually better than Philly's. And Philly
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: used some of theirs yesterday, more of theirs than the
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Dodgers did, so surprisingly, we're gonna give the Dodgers the
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge. You can see it here. They do have
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: a slightly better bullpen there on the season, We'll give
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers the offensive edge too. Both these teams could
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: certainly hit, but the Dodgers are a better offense at
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: home than on the road, so we will give the
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Dodgers the bullpen edge as well. Philly does have ron
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Yours Suarez on the mouth, and I kept saying I
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: expected a bit of regression out of him, and it
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: looked like it was happening just like it did last year.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: But he's been really really good again recently, so I
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: don't quite want to fade Suarez. He's got a two
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: point seven to seveny RA, one point one to five
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: whip good numbers on the season. He's been better on
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: the road to two point zero five Roady Ray. He's
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: been really good over his last four starts. Three of
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: them he didn't allow any runs at all. He's won
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: five starts in a row of his He's allowed two
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in all of those starts, he
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: said double digit strikeouts, and three of the five, including
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: his last start, which was a one hit performance through
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: six against the Mets twelve strikeouts. Hasn't allowed to run
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: this month yet against Milwaukee and the Mets, so he's
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: facing solid offenses too. He's in good form right now man,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: So he's not really a guy that I want to
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: fade going up against the Dodgers, though he doesn't have
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: good numbers and sixty seven at bats against the Dodgers
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: fifteen strikeouts, four walks, that's not horrible, but three thirteen
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: batting average eight forty five ops. The Dodgers have been
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: able to hit him, So somebody to keep in mind.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: So maybe he is still fadable, even though I don't
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: really like to fade pitchers that are in really good
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: form like he is right now, he maybe is fatable here.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Emmett Shehan, who is young pitcher
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: man for the Dodgers, and he's he's got good stuff.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I keep talking about. He's a talent. He's got a
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: hard fastball. He's good. He's a looming mound presence. He's
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: starting to pitch better to three point three two ERA
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: one point oh nine whip. He's doing well. He's been
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: really good at home two point three to two home
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: ra and he's been pretty good. Two of his last
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: three starts he allowed one and zero in runs. He
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: had a little bit of a shaky outing at Pittsburgh
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: where he was really inefficient. He only lasted four and
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings, allowed two earn runs, both on home runs.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Was able to escape damage otherwise in that game, though,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: but he's got a two point three one ERA this
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: month of those two starts. He dominated the Rockies last
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: time out. His two really good starts out of his
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: last three or both at home, so he is definitely
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: better at home. He's actually allowed only one earned run
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: at home in his last three home outings, so yeah,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: I mean something to keep in mind. He's pitching a
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: lot better at home right now. Does still have a
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: fifteen to three strike a walk ratio this month, and
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: he's had nine plus strikeouts in two of his last
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: three outings, going seven innings in both of those two,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: so he's pitching pretty well right now. Andy has a
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: little bit of an Edgicus film at Alfia has never
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: faced him before, so she and has a little bit
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: of an extra edge here with the unfamiliarity aspect there,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: So I think he does actually probably have the edge
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: in the starting pitching matchup, So overall I will lean
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: to the Dodgers in this game. I actually do think
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: they have the starting pitching edge, the bullpen edge, and
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: the hitting edge here. Believe it or not, and they've
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: dropped from minus one forty five to minus one sixteen.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know what caused that line move. I don't
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: know if maybe there was just a pitching change, maybe
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Philly wasn't gonna go with Suarez and how they are,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: because that would really be the only reason why the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: line would move towards Philly like that when you see
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the fifty three percent of tickets are on Philly, but
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash coming in on the Dodgers,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: So the money coming in on the Dodgers, I do
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: agree with it. I would rather go with a you know,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: a very talented, young, unfamiliar pitcher over a guy that
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: doesn't do well against his opponent, but against Suarez really
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: really good recently. So I mean it could see some
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: arguments for an under in the first five innings as well.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Here I don't love the bullpens at all, obviously, so
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: the first five inning under definitely could see that the
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: total drop from eight and a half juice the over
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: to eight and half juice to the under. Eighty five
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: percent tickets on the over, only sixty two percent of
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under, so the money is coming
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: in on the over as well, excuse me coming in on.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: Then the money's coming in towards the under as well,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: excuse me. So but again, bullpens are bad, so I
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: would go first five innings under in that one, Let's
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: go to my actual two plays, which are in kind
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: of the off games here. Let's say, but I think
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: there are reasons for both of these, so let's go
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: with them best bets segment, and I do have to
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: talk about the two Monday night football games, and one
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: of them is also a best bet, so let's get
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: to it. First off, we're gonna go with the Orioles
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings, and the price on them
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: is a little bit too high. It's about minus one
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: forty something or so. I think you can get a
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: cheaper price on the Orioles in the full game. But
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: I don't really want anything to do with their bullpend,
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: even though I know they're up against a bad White
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: Sox bullpen too. But Baltimore's bullpen is actually still significantly
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: worse than the White Sox buwl ben, So I want
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: to focus on where I think Baltimore is the biggest edge.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: That is the first five innings with the starting pitching matchup.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: The way to get this price cheap is to go
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: minus the half run you can find it. I've saw
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: it even money out there at MGM in mass You
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: could probably find it right around minus one ten or whatever. Otherwise,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: either way, I think that's the way to go in
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: this game. Baltimore is the better team over the White Sox,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: although I mean the public is going to know that
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: as well. Public will probably be on Baltimore as well.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: They do still have the better record. I know they're
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: not that good on the road, but the White Socks
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: are actually pretty terrible at home, so I think the
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: home road dichotomy isn't really an issue here as far
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: as Baltimore not being good on the road, because Chicago's
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: is not good at home. I know both these teams
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: are playing out the stretch, but Baltimore is definitely the
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: better of the two teams. The White Sox are returning
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: home from a road treble, though it was only to Cleveland.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: They did lose all three games to Cleveland, so this
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: is going to be more about the matchup though, Like
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. They're returning home from Cleveland, that's
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: not really a big deal. But they are a team
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: that's still returning home. They are still playing out the
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: stretch here, so potentially they will still maybe not totally
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: focus on Baltimore, because I mean, Baltimore's not really a
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: team that's gonna drive your focus. Baltimore, on the other hand,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: is stepping down in class. So I mean, White Sox
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: just faced a really weak Cleveland lineup and still didn't
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: do very well, and now they're facing Baltimore. Was a
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: little probably even actually a little bit better than Cleveland,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: maybe even I don't know, in some ways their offense
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: is at least better. Cleveland's not anywhere near as good
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: as the record looks. Man. Meanwhile, Baltimore just faced Toronto
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: on the road, so Baltimore's already mid road trip. They
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: got smoked yesterday eleven to two, so they're coming off
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: an ugly series and they're stepping way down in class.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: So they just faced a really good Toronto team. So
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot easier after you face a
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: really talented Toronto team, it's gonna be a lot easier
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: to face this White Sox team. As I said, the
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Cubs do have the better bullpen, surprisingly, so we'll keep
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: the bullpen's out of it. Their bullpen's fairly rested to
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's is pretty rested too though. These Asdale for most
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: of their relief yesterday, so Baltimore at least is rested.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: If you did want to go full game in this one.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is the better offense, so that's gonna help us
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: out here. But I like to starting pitching matchup. Man,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with Kyle Bradish here for the Orioles.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched much this year, but since he's come back,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: he's been good. Two point six five ERA point nine
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: to four whip. I know he's been worse on the
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: road four point five roadyra but it's only one start,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: and I know it was in a pitcher friendly park
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: at San Diego. But it wasn't exactly a bad start.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: He just didn't last that long. He was inefficient with
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: his pitches. He allowed two earned runs at four innings.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's not even that bad, so I'll give
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: him a little bit of a pass for that. He's
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer earned runs and all three of
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: his outings did face the Red Sox in his first
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: out here, so they're a pretty good offense and he
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: riffed ten Red Sox, so his strike out rate is
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: really high. He's got a twenty one to four strike
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio overall in its three starts this season,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: and the White Sox are not a very intimidating lineup,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: so I think Braddis should continue to do well in
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: this one. And I think he's just gonna be pumped
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: to be out there, man, because he's missed most of
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: the season. So he's a guy that I don't think
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: is really gonna care that he's pitching for a team
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: that's just out of it. I think he's just gonna
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: be happy to be out there pitching in the majors again. Man.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: White Sox are pretty unfamiliar with them too. They only
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: have three hitters w've ever faced him before and they're
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: zero for seven with four strike cuts off him in
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: no walks, so he's completely burned through those three hitters
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: who have seen him before, Fletcher, Lee and Taylor, and
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity against the rest of the lineup, I think
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be a pretty big edge for bradish So
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: I think he's pitching well and the fact that he's
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to this pretty bad White Sox lineup. I think
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: it's gonna cause him to struggle further. So I think
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Bradish should do well here. He's going up against Sean Burke,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: who is a decently talented young pitcher. This is his
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: rookie season, but he's kind of tailed off I think
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: the grind of the full major league season, although I
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: don't think he's pitched really the full season. But he
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: pitched a little bit last year, but one hundred and
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: twenty two innings now this year is just something he's
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: not really that used to doing. He's starting to wear down.
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: It looks like to me he's got a four point
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: three to five ERA one point four to seven whip. Really,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: that's way too high of a whip. Putting one and
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: a half guys on basin inning, that's not good. He
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: is better at home, so I know we're going against
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: the home road splits here four point two ERA at home,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: but he has not pitched well recently. He's failed to
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: go five innings in five of his last six outings.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: His team has lost four of those six, so none
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: of that is really good. This month, one outing against
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay in this stadium at home and he only
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: lasted four and a third, give up three on runs,
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: five hits, four walks, five strikeouts, not a good sign.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: He's had multiple walks in three of his last four outings.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: He's just not going deep into games anymore, man, So
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: I think Bradish should probably be able to outlast him here,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: and you might see Burke gone from the game before
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: the first five innings are even up, so something to
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: keep in mind there too. I kind of expect Bradish
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: to be able to outpitch him somewhat easily in this one.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Burke against the Orioles, I've seen him a little bit,
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot. The only five hitters wh've seen
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: him before, but they are four for twelve off him,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: so small sample size on both sides. With the Orioles
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: do have the much better numbers in the small sample
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: size at the very least number going with the pitcher
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: that's in much better form, and I think the more
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: proven pitcher who's in the better shape here and who
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: has not suffered the grind of the whole season, So
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: Bratish should be much more fresh here than Burke too, right,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: because Burke, young guy not used to the grind, has
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: pitched most of the season. Bradish is really fresh right
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: now because he started the season so late, so that's
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: an advantage to him as well. Burke does have three
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: strikeouts one walk against the Orioles, but overall, again three
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: thirty three average allow an eight oh one ops, so
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: it's not very good. So we will go with the
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: Orioles in that one in the first five innings, and
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: then my other play is going to be Cincinnati moneyline
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: minus one or two. You can actually get a cheaper
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: price on the full game than the first five, which
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: is interesting because it is because Saint Louis has the
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: better bullpend. But here's the thing. St Lewis's bullpen they
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: got pretty burned out, burned out of the last two days,
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: and they've had a ton of bullpen usage over the
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: last couple of days, So I think that kind of
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: negates how good their bullpen is, and I think the
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: motivation might hurt them to Cincinnati only used three relief
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday and they use Santillan or Santian for only
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: four pitches, so he'd be available again really if they
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: want to use them, So I think that kind of
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: negates the bullpen edge a little bit. Even though, yeah,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: I know, Saint Louis is a top five bullpen y
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: ra wise, but they're also just kind of playing out
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: the stretch at Cincinnati's bullpen is in the mediocre range,
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: but Saint Louis's bullpen is used up, man, So we'll
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: get the cheaper price and we'll actually include the bullpens
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: in this one. And some of it is about the spot.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis really does not have a whole lot left
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: to play for. I mean, sure, maybe you could argue
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: they want to try to spoil Cincinnati's season here, try
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: to prevent them from making the playoffs, but I mean, really,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know. Cincinnati is really
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: like their most hated like divisional foe or whatever. Saint Louis,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: they're turning over from a road trip. But they went
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast to Seattle and then to Milwaukee,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: so it was not an easy road trip for them. Yes,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: they did win the final game yesterday against Milwaukee, so
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: that ended their losing momentum, so sometimes that gives you
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: positive momentum. But they're re turning over from a road trip,
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: so they could have stuff to do back at home.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: They know they're not going anywhere this year. They just
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: faced Milwaukee and they just got to win. So it
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: could be even a little bit of a letdown spot.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: After you get a big win over the Brewers like that,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that's a big win, man, they might be more focused
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: on trying to beat the Brewers than trying to beat
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: the Reds. To be honest, that was a pretty hard
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: fought series. In the last two games both were one
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: run games, so Saint Louis could be a bit burnt
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: out from playing them from the travel. Meanwhile, Cincinnati coming in,
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: they're on a three game lost streak. Man, I know
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: they're coming in from the Pacific Coast. Third straight road serious,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit difficult to do. But they got
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: embarrassed at the A's Stadium, and a lot of times
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: I think when teams go to that stadium sometimes it
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: just throws them off because such a ridiculous triple A stadium.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: They're pitching, gets effected and whatever. But they got so
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: embarrassed they got shut out in one of the games,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: lost eleven to five, and then seven of four in
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: the other games after losing three to nothing. So the
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati team, man, they could still potentially catch the Mets.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: The Mets aren't playing well, so Cincinnati's like they're wasting
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: their chances here, man. So I think they're gonna be
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: the more motivated team. I think they're gonna be happy
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: to just get the hell out of there and just
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: go to a more familiar venue and play some baseball.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: So I think Cincinnati is actually in the better spot here.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: They're in more of a bounce back spot in my opinion,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: after getting totally embarrassed. Just yes, they do have to
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: adjust to the time zone difference. That is a slight
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: issue there. Saint Louis is staying in the same time
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: zone as they already adjusted back coming from the Pacific Coast,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: but I don't think that's that big of a deal.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: And we're also gonna look at the starting pitching matchup obviously,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: and Cincinnati has a way better offense, even though they're
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: not that good offensively. Saint Louis is really bad offensively,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: the worst offensive baseball since the All Star Break. Zach
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Lttel was pitching for the Reds, and I trust him
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: a lot more than Libratare a man. The two l
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: ies pitching a Lattel three point seven eighty ra and
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: one point one two WHIP on the season between playing
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: with Tampa and the Reds, so he's used to pitching
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: in these really hit her friendly stadiums too, which is
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: a decent sign, even though he does allow too many
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: home runs, which I know. I mentioned that I faded
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: him his last time out and I got caught against
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: San Diego. He actually still pitched well there. He's been
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road three point eight
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: seven ERA, but that's still pretty good. He's mostly a
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: good form right now, though, man. I mean it's two
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: of his last three outings he went at least six
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: innings and allowed three or four earned runs. One of
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: them was against Saint Louis or he went seven innings
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: at home against them, allowed three on runs, four strikeouts,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: no walk, So that doesn't mean Saint Louis is more
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: recently familiar with them, So I guess that's a little
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: bit of a concern. This will be the first team
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: that he's facing twice since since coming over to Cincinnati,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: but I'm not concerned about that. This month ten to
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: two strikeout walk ratio, so I think his six point
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: one ERA maybe something to not really be, you know,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: considering that heavily because his bad start. To give up
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: four home runs to Toronto, so it's a bit of
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: a fluke. Again. He just allows way too many home runs, man,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: But that was at home. This is gonna be on
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: the road, so those home parks just two home run
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: conducive Lattel, Maybe he should have pitched against the A's.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: He has good numbers against the A's, but against Saint
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Louis this very bad lineup latel has been pretty good
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: against them too, and thirty five at bats, seven strikeouts,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: one walk, two twenty nine batting average against some seven
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: h seven ops. So I think he will actually do
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: decently in this game. He's going up against Librature, who
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: has been the worst of the two pitchers this season
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: four point three five ERA, one point three to three
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: whip Matthew Librataure. He is better at home a little
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: bit four point one eighty RA, so I know we're
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: not going with the home road splits in this one either.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: But he's in worse form right now. Man. He's been
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: going less deep into games, He's got fewer than five
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: innings and whatever. That is a lot of his recentalities
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: and he's really he's only made it five innings or
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: more and three of his starts recently going all the
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: way back through mid July, So I mean, he's not
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: going deep into games. This month is a four point
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA eight to four strike out walk ratio.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: That's no good. So he's allowing more walks, he's allowing
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: more runs. He's not pitching as deep into games as
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Lttel he's so you could see Saint Louis's bullpen that's
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: already kind of used up get into the game earlier too.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: So I don't like how it sets up for them. Man,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: And he just pitched against Cincinnati, so that familiarity edge
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: that either offense might have as negated because they both
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: just faced each other, and he didn't do particularly well
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: in that game. He did all, I mean, they did win.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: He did hold him to three earn runs at five innings.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: That was at Cincinnati, but he gave up eight hits,
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: two walks, four strikeouts. I mean, he was a mediocre
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: start for him Libratore against Cincinnati. Overall, his numbers are
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: not that good and seventy at bats eleven to five
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio to eighty six batting average eight
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: to thirty three ops, so he has the worst matchup numbers.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: So we will go with the Reds in this one.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be kind of disagreeing with it.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis did drop for mins. One to fifteen. I
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: might just want to wait. We have sixty eight percent
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the Reds seventy five percent of
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: the cash on Saint Louis. You know, I don't love that.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: It looks like the money is coming in at Saint Louis,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: at least based on the market read for now, but
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with it. So we will go with
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: the Reds in this one. Of those will be my
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: two baseball players. I am worried about fading market reads
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: like that. Although a lot of times when I do that,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: I am able to win out. It hasn't been the
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: case this season. Though we got to get baseball, we
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: got to do better in the final stretch, Man, this
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: has been a terrible baseball season. I just can't really
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: explain it. Nate, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: late in the show, but you get my NFL plays
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: to finish here. We're in the best Bets segment. But
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about both NFL games anyway. One of
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: them is the best bet for me. A will cap
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: the show at about an hour. How about that? I
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: just scratched my neck, but I almost did, like an
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: Italian chin scratch. A doubleheader, man doubleheader on Monday night here.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: I think both games are on ESPN. The first ones
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: on ABC and ESPN. I think I don't even know.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: First game is Buccaneers and Texans. I don't have a
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: play on this one, but this one was close to
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: being a play for me. I do like the Texans,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: and mostly it just looks like a strong market. Read
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: to me. Texans are run from two to two and
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: a half. You know the public is only gonna be
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: on Tampa right because people have seen like the CJ.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Stroud Magic has gone like he didn't look good last year.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: Texans have turned into more of a defense oriented team.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: They got a lot of offensive injuries. They're gonna be
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: without Mixing, possibly for the season. Tank Dell looks like
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: he may never come back. They're still without Christian Kirk.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: They need him back to give them more weapons for CJ. Stroud.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Their offensive line kind of looks a little bit iffy
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: as well. So people don't like it, man, because their
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: offense isn't that good, But they thrive on their defense, man,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: and their defense was good. I mean, you saw what
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the Rams just did to Tennessee yesterday. Texans held that
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Rams offense completely down, although granted the Rams were probably
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: due to have a slow start. Matthew Stafford, I think
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: his back still isn't right and he didn't play it
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: all in preseason. But still Texans have a good defense.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: They do have the better of the two defenses here.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: There is a reason why they're favored in the public.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: They're only gonna want to go towards Tampa here, man,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: because it's Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, whatever, God when, I
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: think might still be hurt. But I don't think Godwin
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: factors into the handicap too much. Here. Fifty nine percent
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Tampa, fifty one percent of the cash
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: on the Texans. So Texans do have the money coming
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: in on their side. Again, I agree with it, and
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of money coming in on the under.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: The totals dropped heavily from forty six and a half
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: all the way down to forty two and a half
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: on the under excuse me, money coming in in the under,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of tickets on the over, sixty four
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, some money fading
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: the public on that one and coming in very strongly
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: in the under. And I think the under is correlated
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: to the text being able to win this game. And
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: I know they're the favorite, and usually the underdog is
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: correlated with the under. But if you think it's gonna
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: be an under, that pretty much means the Texans deepmense
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: is gonna win the day and hold down the Buccaneers offense.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: So I think Texans is correlated. They're correlated with the under.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: But I don't think you can play the under at
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: this low of a number, man, I mean, you've missed
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: out on a lot of the value here, although a
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: lot of those are dead numbers there, But I think
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: forty four ish is probably where I would kind of
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: cap it there. As far as the under is concerned,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: that I generally would agree with the under in this one.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: I think Tampa's is somewhat of a bad spot too,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: because they're coming off a win over Atlanta, big divisional win,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: and it was a misleading win. Atlanta had the game
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: in hand pretty much late. I mean, I know they're
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: only winning by three late, but Atlanta had that game
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: at the end and then blew the game. At the end.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Atlanta did outgain them by almost one hundred yards, so
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: Atlanta had the upper hand. They outfirst down them, they
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: outpossessed them. So it was a misleading final result there. Man.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: So as far as the you could see, ESPN does
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: this weird thing now where they show your fantasy match
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: up in the en they show your pick them stats
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: all related to that particular game. It's kind of crazy.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: At least it doesn't show I don't think it shows
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: my name there at least it better or not. But anyway,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: I think Tampa's in a bit of a letdown spot here.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times games where teams get caught
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: the most are out of conference road games because they're
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: not used to playing in that venue and it's just
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: a game that means less than the rest of the
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: games on the schedule because the conference record is the
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker when it comes down to it. So Tampa is
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: in that spot too. A road out of conference game Houston,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: I know they're coming in from the Pacific coast, but
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: it was an ugly loss for them, so I think
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: they're gonna want to bounce back from that. So all
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: that being said, yeah, I think Houston is the right side.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: And this one, I'm almost convincing myself to give out
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: a play on that one, but I won't. But I
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: think Houston is the way to look in that game,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: minus two, minus two and a half whatever, I wouldn't
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: want to lay minus three really on that. I would
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: try to get the better of the number three. You
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: could go money line if you want to, or maybe
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: when the public has their say later today maybe. I mean,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: you should probably still be able to get the two
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: and a half out there, I would imagine, though, But
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: my play is gonna be on the other game. Pete,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? You're also on the Reds. Should I
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: be worried now that we're both on the Reds? I
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, I don't disagree with that. I
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: think they have the starting pitching edge. Normally I would
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: say they have the worst of the two bullpens too,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: but I'm fading the used up Saint Louis bullpen as well. There.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: My final play is in this last game here, I've
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: already given it out on my show multiple times, we're
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Raiders. The Raiders plus three and
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: a half here, man, I think the public is gonna
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: be looking at this and thinking, well, first of all,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: there's no way that the Raiders can start two to zero,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: which is kind of just a stupid way of thinking
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: because it all depends on the matchup. And I mean,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: they beat the Patriots in Week one. I don't know
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: if there's really a whole lot to take away from that.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, they played decently against the Patriots, got win.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back home. But a lot of this
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: is a fate of the Chargers. Man, the Chargers, they're
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: in a horrendous spot. I think they're in the worst
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: spot of the entire week. They're coming off a huge
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: divisional win over Kansas City. I know this is a
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: divisional game too, but this game is surrounded by bigger
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: divisional games. I haven't seen a situation like this maybe ever.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: So Chargers are already in a letdown spot because they're
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: coming up a huge win over Kansas City. It was
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: also double revenge because they lost to Kansas City twice
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: last year. This was considered by some to be maybe
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: the matchup where you know, like Kansas City might take
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: a step back this year, and who's gonna fill that
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: void And it's either basically gonna be the Chargers or Denver,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. And the Chargers are kind
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: of putting themselves in position where it looks like it
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: might be them where they're the team that beat the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: Chiefs to start the season. And not only is it
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot, but they're traveling back from Brazil, which
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: is something very unfamiliar. I mean, NFL started Brazil games
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: last year and the Chargers and the Chiefs, neither of
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: those teams have ever done that. And unfortunately, I think
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: it affected the Chiefs yesterday a little bit too, because
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: I liked the Chiefs in that game yesterday against the Eagles,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: and it didn't happen. I didn't want to make it
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: a play because they were returning over from Brazil. But
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: this returning from Brazil, this is no joke, man, And
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: it's really a second straight road game. Even though the
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: Chargers actually gave up a home game to get that
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Brazil game, that was one of the Chargers' home games,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: and now they're they're playing a second straight game, not
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: at home, going to Vegas. I know they're used to
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: playing in Vegas, but this is Vegas's home opener too.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: I think Vegas is gonna be real pumped, man. I mean,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: I think after winning against the Patriots, I think the
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: crowd is gonna be up thinking, hey, maybe we can
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: do something this year. We got Pete Carroll, we got
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: Geno Smith, we got Ashton gent Dy. This is a
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: new team, and I think with all those new components,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: it's a good thing they have a game under their belt.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: They got a taste of victory. It's gonna give them
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum moving forward with these new guys.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: That's good Smith. I've already had continuity with Pete Carroll
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: because they played together at Seattle, so they already know
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: each other. So that's gonna that helped Vegas hit the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: ground running too. Vegas is the team that's being totally
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: overlooked in this situation, man. And I'm not saying they're
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be good this year. I still think they're the
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: last place team in this division. But I think as
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: far as the situation is concerned, I think that sets
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: this up to be a sandwich for the Chargers, because
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: not only is it a letdown spot coming off a
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: monster win and they're having to travel from Brazil. But
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: they have a big game up next against Denver. And
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: those are the two teams. Like I said that, everybody's
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: talking about. One of those two teams is gonna replace
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City this year. It's either gonna be the Chargers
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: or Denver. That is a huge matchup next week between
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: the Chargers and Denver. Nobody's talking about the Raiders having
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: a chance of this division again. I don't really think
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: they do. But I think it sets up pretty nicely
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: situationally here for the Chargers to overlook Vegas be thrown
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: off by the travel I like it a lot. Man,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: it's a divisional sandwich. Even though it's three division games
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: in a row, this is the least of all three.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: I like it a lot. I think Vegas could take
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: them by surprise here. And the way the Chargers play
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: under horrible. They play a time of possession game. They
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: possess the ball as much as possible. They want to
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: keep their defense rested, keep their defense off the field,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: and that leads to a lot of lower scoring games typically,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: which means it's more difficult to cover a spread, especially
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: as a favorite on the road. It makes it more
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: difficult to do that. Man, the Chargers play a lot
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: of close games because of that. That's the way that
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: they play, you know. They just try to keep the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: game like in their sites the whole time and try
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: to keep the opponent's offense off the field as much
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: as possible. That's what they do. So I think that's
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: what they're gonna be doing again. That's just the style
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: they play under Horror Bass. So I like it. Man.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: The Chargers went up from three to three and a half.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: I think you can definitely get a three and a
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: half right now, And if you can't now, you're probably
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to get it at some point before
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: the game because the public will likely come in on
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. Especially if the public comes in in this
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: first game and they lose U on the Buccaneers, you
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna try to make their money back on
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. Chargers have sixty seven percent of tickets on them,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: fifty percent the cash, So the money is coming in
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers here, We're gonna do it. We're gonna
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: be on the Raiders here a little bit, Warriors. Some
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: of the money is coming in on the over. The
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: toll did go up from forty four and a half
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: to forty six and a half. Juice to the over.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: It's headed towards that key number of forty seven. Even
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: though I know the Chargers play kind of a slow
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: down game, But maybe the Raiders might be correlated with
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: the over here, man, because the Chargers like to play
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: that understyle of game, And if the Raiders are able
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: to somehow speed the game up and go with their offense,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: that has actually some weapons on offense that actually might
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: play in the raiders favor. So the over might actually
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: be correlated to the Raiders here, even though they are
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: the underdogs. So even though I just said the opposite,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: it's it's interesting to think about seventy two percent of
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty three percent of the cash coming in on
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the over here, So money is coming in on the over.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: But Chargers, there'll be my play here. It's my favorite
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: play of the entire NFL week, and it better be
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: because the other two lost so and I really am
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: not sure that we should have lost that Titans one
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: man and the Jets just screw We got screwed with
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: the concussion to Justin Fields, what can you do. That's
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: gonna do it, man, I plays one more time, Baltimore
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: Orioles first five innings run line, Cincinnati Red's Moneyline full game,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: and Vegas Raiders the Raiders plus three and a half.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: Let's do it. Let's get back on the winning side today. Man,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out guys this morning. Peace out, Learn
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: it toad on Twitter for me, learn it tode on Instagram,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: like subscribe to the channel here on YouTube. We were
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: also on the audio platforms. You can give me a
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: review there, Spotify, Apple. All of it helps me out, man,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: And listening on audio helps me too. Just if you listen,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: because the ads are in there and it's monetized. Be
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: good to get help this thing take off. I better
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: get better. I need to get some wins, man, because otherwise,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, who's gonna listen? I mean, I need to
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: be funnier too. But I got to give out good information.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: I think I'm still giving out good information. It's just
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: the wins haven't been coming in like they have in
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: the past. I just don't know how to explain it
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: right now. But let's get it back on the winning
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: track here. The fact that football is back in swing
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: I think will help us. College football is at least
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: has been good over the last two weeks, so I
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: think college football will continue to be good like it
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: was last year, so hopefully that is the case. NFL
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: usually is decent for me as well, so hopefully that
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: continues as well or gets back. Hopefully we get back
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: towards doing that. And then I have my ukulele stuff
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: covering in yuke on YouTube. Go check that out out.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: I am up to date with the YouTube videos now,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: except I want to drip in like old videos as well.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Page round dot com slash undertow and you get bonus content.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: But I got to get back to that. I gotta
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: get that feed up to date. Maybe I'll be able
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: to do it today. We will see, because Monday's a
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: bit of a lighter day, so let's get it done.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: Peace out guys for now, and I'll be back on
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. I guess as long as I'm alive, let's
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: get some wins and help keep me alive. Your peace, guys.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: M