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Iran confronts an uncertain future · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Iran's leaders are projecting strength. The Islamic Republic remains firmly
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: in power, backed by powerful security forces and an extensive
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: surveillance apparatus. But how stable is the regime long term?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: And our pressure is building among the population.
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  Speaker 2: The government knows it's in trouble and it is trying
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  Speaker 2: to control its society.
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  Speaker 3: It fears its society.
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  Speaker 1: That's doctor Nada Bulorci, a historian and former human rights
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  Speaker 1: lawyer at Rutgers University in the United States, specializing in
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  Speaker 1: Iran and the Middle East. If she's right, it raises
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  Speaker 1: a fundamental question. Does Iran just look powerful from the outside?
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  Speaker 1: Is growing reliance on surveillance and control reflecting something else
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  Speaker 1: entirely fear? Who is really running Iran today?
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  Speaker 3: I think.
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  Speaker 2: It is kind of the system you know there is nominally,
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  Speaker 2: at least rhetorically, the new leader is supposed to be
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  Speaker 2: the face. The leaders generally and particularly for a new one,
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  Speaker 2: have to even though they're decided as the leader, they
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  Speaker 2: still have a very large constituency.
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  Speaker 3: That they have to work with.
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  Speaker 2: Right So, if you look at Ali Homini when he
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  Speaker 2: was first made leader, he first of all they had
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  Speaker 2: to change the constitution. He wasn't religiously actually a high
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  Speaker 2: ranking cleric. He wasn't even an ayatola, so he had
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  Speaker 2: to actually work to build consensus to become the person
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  Speaker 2: that everyone thinks of as the supreme leader. One of
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  Speaker 2: the reasons I think I was one of the only
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  Speaker 2: people who said that when Ali Comedy dies, we will
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  Speaker 2: still have a supreme leader because the IRGC already controls
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  Speaker 2: so much.
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  Speaker 1: To understand the regime, we have to look at the
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  Speaker 1: massive shift that occurred at the very top following military
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  Speaker 1: operations that eliminated multiple tiers of the old Guard leadership
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  Speaker 1: was succeeded by his son, mach Tabakhramene. Some analysts predicted
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  Speaker 1: a crisis within the regime, but the transition appears to
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  Speaker 1: have been smooth.
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  Speaker 2: I thoroughly believe, you know, two three tiers of the
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  Speaker 2: Islamic Republic's leaders have been taken out by military operations,
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  Speaker 2: and those who are left, for the most part, I
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  Speaker 2: believe are less savvy and less.
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  Speaker 3: Flexible domestically.
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  Speaker 2: To be honest, it's going to be increasingly difficult to
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  Speaker 2: pick out sort of new pressure points or new leaders,
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  Speaker 2: military leaders, intellectual leaders, religious leaders, because they're all now
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  Speaker 2: within the system. And easily hide behind the notion of
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  Speaker 2: the revolutionary guard.
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  Speaker 1: All right, so the supreme leader remains the public face
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  Speaker 1: of the regime, and real power increasingly appears to rest
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  Speaker 1: with institutions that shape political, economic and security policy. So
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  Speaker 1: what's emerging is a picture of a system that has
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  Speaker 1: become a great deal larger than anyone leader. But if
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  Speaker 1: the balance of power has shifted, what does that mean
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  Speaker 1: for ordinary Iranians?
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  Speaker 2: People don't have jobs, you know, they don't have over
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  Speaker 2: a million. Over a million jobs have been lost, executions
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  Speaker 2: have proceeded, intimidation has occurred. So the response to that
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  Speaker 2: has very much been self censorship and fear and hopelessness
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  Speaker 2: of what to do in the sense of can I
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  Speaker 2: try to get a job, keep a job, go to school?
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  Speaker 2: Is my member of my family hurt?
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  Speaker 1: One word comes up repeatedly when describing life inside Iran
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  Speaker 1: today exhaustion.
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  Speaker 2: Economic exhaustion, psychological exhaustion, political exhaustion, digital exhaustion. You know,
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  Speaker 2: every part of life requires calculation. So what you know
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  Speaker 2: from basic questions of what can I wear, what can
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  Speaker 2: I post? Do I have access to the internet, what
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  Speaker 2: can I say? Can I travel? And then you know
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  Speaker 2: the very big questions is my family safe. It's really
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  Speaker 2: just such an exhaustion that touches on every component of life,
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  Speaker 2: because the government has now really interjected itself and into
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  Speaker 2: every moment of.
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  Speaker 3: Life that it possibly can, at.
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  Speaker 2: Least the moments that are online or those that are visible,
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  Speaker 2: and that's a lot.
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  Speaker 1: According to doctor Balorci, this total exhaustion isn't accidental, it's engineered.
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  Speaker 1: In recent years, the regime has increasingly been using technology
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  Speaker 1: to assert control over the people of Iran. Along with
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  Speaker 1: blocking the Internet, state surveillance in ordinary life has reached
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  Speaker 1: new heights.
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  Speaker 2: So since the Massamini and the woman life freedom movement,
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  Speaker 2: you know, women would or actually men as well who
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  Speaker 2: were in violation of dress codes and the Islamic hit
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  Speaker 2: job would get texts that said, we have a picture
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  Speaker 2: of you on such and such places. It's the same
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  Speaker 2: way that we get speeding tickets in America. They have
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  Speaker 2: been getting for a number of years these violations via
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  Speaker 2: text message or and so the use of technology.
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  Speaker 3: Has not been a hidden fact.
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  Speaker 2: The fact that it is now deeper, stronger and formalized
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  Speaker 2: into these more intimate corners of people's daily life, I
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  Speaker 2: think is what's different.
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  Speaker 3: And yes, it is much more clearer.
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  Speaker 1: So if surveillance and technology is becoming more sophisticated and
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  Speaker 1: deeply embedded in the lives of Iranians, where does that
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  Speaker 1: leave resistance to the system. Can civil society still organize
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  Speaker 1: themselves and challenge the state?
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  Speaker 2: The ability and capability of civil society and their exhaustion
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  Speaker 2: gets weighed with the fact that there are organizations outside,
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  Speaker 2: particularly in the United States, who are moving to develop
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  Speaker 2: technologies and get help to share that technology with the
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  Speaker 2: Iranians to ensure or try to provide international again Worldwide
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  Speaker 2: Web access, but also platforms that allow for distribution inside
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  Speaker 2: of Iran, so that civil societies civil society can continue
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  Speaker 2: to organize and protest. I do not, however, see immediately
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  Speaker 2: that happening. One just the sheer shock of the massacre
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  Speaker 2: that happened in January, even if you don't believe, and
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  Speaker 2: the high numbers are remain unresolved, but there is still
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  Speaker 2: the visual image of blood literally running in the streets.
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  Speaker 3: So I don't think that is going anywhere.
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  Speaker 1: When the conflict between the US and Iran began to escalate,
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  Speaker 1: it was initially accompanied by international calls for regime change. Whoever,
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  Speaker 1: these hopes have been tempered.
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  Speaker 2: There are multiple negatives for the Iranian people coming out
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  Speaker 2: of this war, despite the fact that a segment inside
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  Speaker 2: of Iran believed that it would actually were very hopeful
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  Speaker 2: for political transformation as a result, as well as people outside.
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  Speaker 2: So one of the negatives obviously is that transformation didn't happen,
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  Speaker 2: and also the.
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  Speaker 3: People feel completely betrayed.
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  Speaker 2: And then the third thing is now that they're in
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  Speaker 2: this place where they are in essence left to have
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  Speaker 2: to live continue to live under the Islamic Republic, where
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  Speaker 2: does things go from here?
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  Speaker 1: From outside Iran, it appears to security institutions and surveillance
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  Speaker 1: networks are solid. So where do the vulnerabilities of the
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  Speaker 1: Islamic Republic lie?
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  Speaker 2: And so, when you have a society that's just changed
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  Speaker 2: so dramatically over a generation and even within a generation,
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  Speaker 2: the political system knows it's in danger. And that's why
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  Speaker 2: these controls have increased since February and January. The government
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  Speaker 2: knows it's in trouble and it is trying to control
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  Speaker 2: its society.
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  Speaker 3: It fears its society.
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  Speaker 2: These protests that we've seen over the last three four
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  Speaker 2: years have been some of the largest ones ever and
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  Speaker 2: so Iran is a young, educated, technologically connected society, and
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  Speaker 2: so while the state is relying on coersion and surveillance
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: and executions and internet control and legal restrictions to maintain order,
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  Speaker 2: I would just, you know, emphasize again that the Iranian
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  Speaker 2: people are resilient. They continue to surprise inspire I think
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  Speaker 2: the world, and that.
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  Speaker 1: May be the defining paradox of modern Iran. A regime
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  Speaker 1: that looks powerful on the outside, yet increasingly fearful of
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  Speaker 1: the society it governs. The tiger the control becomes the
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  Speaker 1: more they may reveal, a leadership that knows it faces
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  Speaker 1: a younger, better connected, and increasingly restless population. Do you
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  Speaker 1: still have hope for the people of Iran? Or is
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  Speaker 1: the bleak picture within the country not going to change
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  Speaker 1: anytime soon. I'm Pablo Folilius. I'll see you soon.