Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 7 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

Transcript

NFL Week 7 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorite the podcast from the Action Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. Later on in the show, Dan
0:17
Speaker 1: Ravel and Simon Hunter are coming on, and we got
0:20
Speaker 1: a race through our Westgate Super Contest picks. Because there's
0:23
Speaker 1: a game tonight and Cliffhanger, we may or may not
0:27
Speaker 1: be choosing it as one of our picks. Uh, and
0:31
Speaker 1: you might be surprised at the side we're gonna take.
0:34
Speaker 1: But first, let's bring on the Man, the Myth, the
0:39
Speaker 1: Legend from Boyd Gaming, representing all the books from Boyd
0:44
Speaker 1: Gaming in the state of Nevada and around the country.
0:47
Speaker 1: Mr Bob Scucci, it's early for you, Scooch. We're recording
1:06
Speaker 1: this on Thursday morning. We normally record on Tuesdays, but
1:10
Speaker 1: you had a crazy week this week because G two E,
1:12
Speaker 1: the big gambling conference, is in Las Vegas. I was
1:16
Speaker 1: traveling and so we were not able to connect until
1:19
Speaker 1: this morning. I appreciate you getting up so early in
1:24
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Yeah, I'm always up. You're always up. Yeah.
1:32
Speaker 1: I don't believe that I'm getting up earlier and earlier
1:38
Speaker 1: the older I get. I'm finding that out. Yeah, well
1:41
Speaker 1: that's what happens. You revert back to being a toddler. Listen,
1:46
Speaker 1: I don't want a dilly dahi. Let's just get freaking
1:48
Speaker 1: two because we got a game tonight. We gotta get
1:50
Speaker 1: this podcast up so people can hear it before the
1:52
Speaker 1: game tonight. All the wise guys have been coming in
1:55
Speaker 1: on Denver. This game open at foward. It's now at three.
1:58
Speaker 1: I kind of still like Denver or three. Yeah, this
2:02
Speaker 1: is a tough one. I mean, the parlays and everything
2:04
Speaker 1: of the public is all over the Chiefs. It's our
2:08
Speaker 1: biggest game in terms of number of tickets just on
2:11
Speaker 1: one team, more tickets on the chief than any other
2:14
Speaker 1: team on the board. But we knew we were going
2:16
Speaker 1: to get this, uh just that uh short road favorite.
2:21
Speaker 1: We we hung it three and a half initially, Uh,
2:25
Speaker 1: right out of the gate. The sharp guys took the
2:27
Speaker 1: plus three and a half and it's been sitting at
2:29
Speaker 1: three all week. Uh, and that's exactly kind of what
2:32
Speaker 1: we expected. Um. You know, we had Denver rated a
2:36
Speaker 1: lot higher than a lot of the public thought going
2:40
Speaker 1: into last week. You know, owen owen four to start
2:44
Speaker 1: the season. But they were in every single game that
2:46
Speaker 1: every game was close, Every game came down to the
2:49
Speaker 1: last play. So we really kind of favored him last week.
2:52
Speaker 1: We went into uh that Tennessee game trying to need
2:56
Speaker 1: Denver as best we could and we did. Actually, uh,
2:59
Speaker 1: it was a good game to the house. So I
3:01
Speaker 1: think they're a live dog here. I mean, it wouldn't
3:04
Speaker 1: terribly surprise me if the Chiefs bounce back after a
3:06
Speaker 1: couple of losses now to to to really uh uh
3:11
Speaker 1: you know, play one of their best games. But I
3:13
Speaker 1: think three is still the right number. And the sharp
3:17
Speaker 1: guys indicate that we're getting at least sharp guy action
3:22
Speaker 1: on on the Broncos and uh, public action on the Chiefs,
3:26
Speaker 1: and I like the Broncos. I don't want to spend
3:28
Speaker 1: too much time in this game because it's the game tonight,
3:30
Speaker 1: and so uh, let's talk about Oakland visiting the Green
3:35
Speaker 1: Bay Packers. Oakland is a surprising three and two, Like
3:39
Speaker 1: if you had said to me if I didn't like
3:42
Speaker 1: when I checked the records this week, I'm like, what
3:45
Speaker 1: Oakland's three and two? Huh? How did that happen? And
3:50
Speaker 1: there are four and a half point dogs in Green Bay? Sneaky,
3:53
Speaker 1: and uh, we we've actually so we've got them five
3:56
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs and We're getting all the
3:58
Speaker 1: money on the Raiders, and it's prides me a little
4:01
Speaker 1: bit that the public isn't supporting the Packers as much
4:04
Speaker 1: as I thought they would. This would be kind of
4:06
Speaker 1: another game where I thought that the public would be
4:09
Speaker 1: just overwhelmingly on one side the Packers while the Sharp
4:13
Speaker 1: guys took the Raiders. But it turns out that the
4:17
Speaker 1: actually is pretty well split between the Raiders and the
4:20
Speaker 1: Packers from the general public and just uh completely one
4:24
Speaker 1: sided from the Sharp guys. So we were as high
4:27
Speaker 1: as uh six we actually opened the game six, went
4:31
Speaker 1: down to five and a half, so quite a bit
4:33
Speaker 1: of money on the Raiders. One of our biggest straight games,
4:36
Speaker 1: to be honest, with the straight back games. Uh more
4:38
Speaker 1: money on the Raiders. So that the Sharp guys really
4:41
Speaker 1: love this team. I gotta say, I think the Packers
4:43
Speaker 1: are a fraudulent five and one. I think they're getting
4:47
Speaker 1: there by the skin of their teeth. They just they
4:49
Speaker 1: don't look that good. They really are, you know, they
4:52
Speaker 1: surprised me. The best game they played was it was
4:54
Speaker 1: against the Vikings where they or actually they played a
4:58
Speaker 1: couple of games where they kind of uh played the
5:01
Speaker 1: whole game from start to finish looking good. But it
5:03
Speaker 1: seems like they have patches of a quarter or two
5:06
Speaker 1: quarters where they just kind of fade and they are
5:09
Speaker 1: just barely winning some of these games that you think
5:12
Speaker 1: that they should have won decisively, where they just look
5:15
Speaker 1: so good to start the game and then just kind
5:17
Speaker 1: of fade off. But um, it's getting tough to see
5:21
Speaker 1: which NFC team really is the legit NFC contender. And
5:25
Speaker 1: at one point we had the Packers raided right up there,
5:28
Speaker 1: you know, in the top two or three teams, and uh,
5:31
Speaker 1: you know, I know, it's a long season, and uh,
5:34
Speaker 1: we've got a long way to go for for maybe
5:36
Speaker 1: maybe things just have a mess for them, you know,
5:38
Speaker 1: under the new coaching system. But uh, I mean, like
5:41
Speaker 1: you said, there's still five and one. But I expected
5:44
Speaker 1: them to be drawing a lot more public support than
5:47
Speaker 1: they have. I'm not surprised. I'm not surprised the Raiders
5:49
Speaker 1: getting the money. Uh. And maybe maybe I'm foreshadowing. Maybe
5:54
Speaker 1: I already recorded with Simon Hunter and Darry Revel and
5:56
Speaker 1: maybe the Raiders are one of the teams we pick
5:59
Speaker 1: in our super content. Uh boy, when's the last time
6:02
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills were seventeen point favorites against anyone. Is
6:05
Speaker 1: that an indication of how bad the Dolphins are? Or
6:10
Speaker 1: is that indication of how good you think Josh Allen is. No,
6:14
Speaker 1: it's just how bad we think the Dolphins are. Uh.
6:17
Speaker 1: You know last week the Dolphins, Uh, they gave us
6:20
Speaker 1: the back door cover we were looking for against Washington
6:23
Speaker 1: when two teams that hadn't won a game played down
6:26
Speaker 1: to our expectations. I mean, I was, uh watching that
6:30
Speaker 1: game and just wonder, how bad can these two teams
6:34
Speaker 1: get talking about the Redskins and the Dolphins, But at
6:38
Speaker 1: one point, it just looked like the Dolphins, we're not
6:41
Speaker 1: going to be competitive at all. And you know, and
6:45
Speaker 1: every week it doesn't matter. The public just bet against
6:49
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are so as much as the public bets
6:53
Speaker 1: on the Patriots, they bet against Miami. So we know
6:56
Speaker 1: this line is really inflated. Uh probably they shouldn't be
7:00
Speaker 1: more than h fourteen and a half, but uh, it's
7:05
Speaker 1: still Uh there's there's no wise guys support on the
7:10
Speaker 1: Dolphins here, at least at least last week, right before
7:13
Speaker 1: game time, we got a little play on the Dolphins,
7:15
Speaker 1: but here nothing, It's just all all Bills Uh, even
7:21
Speaker 1: even some pretty big money on the Bills that not
7:24
Speaker 1: quite sure if it's from professional betters, but some big
7:27
Speaker 1: dollars on the Bills. Uh, we're just gonna leave the
7:30
Speaker 1: Dolphins again like we do every single week. Yeah, it's
7:33
Speaker 1: so hard not to look at this and thing, well,
7:35
Speaker 1: of course you have to take the Dolphins. I mean, look,
7:37
Speaker 1: the Bill's defense is amazing, and I don't know if
7:40
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are going to score, but the Bill's offense
7:43
Speaker 1: isn't that good, so like for them to have to
7:45
Speaker 1: score double what the Dolphin, like, seventeen points more, eighteen
7:49
Speaker 1: points more than the Dolphins. There have been games where
7:52
Speaker 1: they haven't scored eighteen points and multiple games where they
7:55
Speaker 1: haven't scored eighteen points. Yeah, now that I mean their
7:58
Speaker 1: defense obviously is what's keeping them, uh undefeated. And they
8:03
Speaker 1: played that real close game against New England. Actually looked
8:07
Speaker 1: like when they played New England and I think they
8:09
Speaker 1: got down to a third team nothing defichit. But then
8:11
Speaker 1: they just shut down New England for the rest of
8:13
Speaker 1: the game, which is a pretty tall task. So we
8:15
Speaker 1: know about the defense. Uh, like you said, the offense. Um,
8:20
Speaker 1: the problem with the Dolphins defense, I mean They're keeping
8:23
Speaker 1: their team competitive for at least the first half, but
8:25
Speaker 1: then they just throw on the field so much. They
8:27
Speaker 1: just get worn down because their offense can't give them
8:30
Speaker 1: a little bit of a breather. So I might want
8:33
Speaker 1: to look for the Dolphins in the first half. Is
8:35
Speaker 1: a bit of a play l a Is visiting Atlanta. Boy,
8:38
Speaker 1: these teams are going in the wrong direction, both of them.
8:42
Speaker 1: The Rams just look pitiful. Their offensive line cannot protect
8:46
Speaker 1: Jared Goff. The Falcons defense, I don't think they've had
8:49
Speaker 1: a sack in like a month, um, But if they
8:52
Speaker 1: were ever going to get healthy in the past rush,
8:55
Speaker 1: this is the week to do it. As much as
8:58
Speaker 1: it pains me to say it, I like the Falcons
9:01
Speaker 1: at plus three here. Yeah, And I think you're on
9:04
Speaker 1: the same side as as a lot of the professionals.
9:07
Speaker 1: And I think last week was really the telltale sign
9:10
Speaker 1: for the Rams. I think a lot of people, including myself,
9:13
Speaker 1: really expected them uh to show up against the Niners
9:16
Speaker 1: and kind of exposed the forty Niners a little bit.
9:19
Speaker 1: But that didn't happen, and they just two teams that
9:22
Speaker 1: are on downward spiral. But the Rams just really looked dysfunctional.
9:25
Speaker 1: On the offense, and and golf doesn't look good, and uh,
9:29
Speaker 1: it's the Sharp guys have not been on the Falcons
9:34
Speaker 1: one game this year until now, so I think that
9:37
Speaker 1: says more about the Rams than it does about the Falcons.
9:40
Speaker 1: But they're certainly on them on this game. The public
9:43
Speaker 1: is still supporting the Rams somewhat. I just think, you know,
9:46
Speaker 1: they're just looking at the Rams as a short road
9:48
Speaker 1: favored minus three and just figure they're just a much
9:51
Speaker 1: better team, even though their record doesn't indicate it. I
9:54
Speaker 1: think every week they've been kind of saying the same
9:57
Speaker 1: thing about the Rams, looking for them to get that
9:59
Speaker 1: cover eventually. But the Sharp guys are all over the
10:03
Speaker 1: Falcons on this one. The next game, Minnesota is visiting Detroit.
10:06
Speaker 1: Minnesota's a one and a half point favorite. I wrote
10:09
Speaker 1: a story yesterday and the Action Network Action network dot com.
10:12
Speaker 1: You can find it right now, go look forward to
10:15
Speaker 1: just type in Chad Millman Action Network Last place teams.
10:20
Speaker 1: You know, the Washington Nationals in May were in last place.
10:24
Speaker 1: They had more losses than the Detroit Tigers, who ended
10:27
Speaker 1: up with the most losses in Major League Baseball. In
10:30
Speaker 1: January of this year, the St Louis Blues were in
10:32
Speaker 1: last place in the NHL, so we're a little we're
10:36
Speaker 1: close to halfway through the NFL season, which last place
10:39
Speaker 1: team has the best chance and the greatest value where
10:43
Speaker 1: that those sort of ven diagrams meet to make it
10:47
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. I'm going with the Detroit lines.
10:49
Speaker 1: I love their schedule, I love their defensive line. I
10:53
Speaker 1: like Matthew Stafford. I wish they could run the ball
10:55
Speaker 1: a little better. Um, but this team could be five
10:58
Speaker 1: and oh yeah, I mean they really could. You look
11:01
Speaker 1: at their losses. I mean they were just uh easily
11:04
Speaker 1: could have gone the other way. And they've surprised a
11:07
Speaker 1: lot of people, and they're still kind of flying under
11:09
Speaker 1: the radar in terms of kind of the betting public.
11:11
Speaker 1: It hasn't been one of the teams that they've jumped on,
11:14
Speaker 1: uh even though that they're getting quite a bit of
11:18
Speaker 1: wins against the spread and uh even, and so in
11:21
Speaker 1: this game here still no love for the Lions. It's
11:24
Speaker 1: just been all vikings, both public and sharp guys. We
11:28
Speaker 1: haven't seen any sharp action on on the Lions on
11:31
Speaker 1: this one. A little surprising. Usually when you see, uh,
11:35
Speaker 1: you know, a decent team at home either getting getting
11:38
Speaker 1: a couple of points or laying a point. Uh, it's
11:41
Speaker 1: usually a play for for the wise guys, but this
11:44
Speaker 1: one that looks like they're on the vikings. And I
11:46
Speaker 1: could see this line going up by game time, So
11:48
Speaker 1: there might be a little opportunity to get some value
11:51
Speaker 1: on the Lions played on in the week. Interesting, So
11:55
Speaker 1: you think I should wait if I like them? It
11:58
Speaker 1: looks like it's going up. It doesn't look like it's
12:00
Speaker 1: coming back towards picked them. It looks like it's going
12:02
Speaker 1: up towards three. Why do you think the wise guys
12:05
Speaker 1: are in the vikings like this seems like a prime spot?
12:07
Speaker 1: Is it because they feel like they're starting to get
12:11
Speaker 1: see the vikings be what they should be? Is because
12:13
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins played so well, where's your where's your opinion there?
12:17
Speaker 1: I mean, they they usually don't just take last week
12:20
Speaker 1: into consideration, but it did look like their best game
12:23
Speaker 1: of the years. I mean that was kind of how
12:24
Speaker 1: they were expected to play coming into this season, a
12:27
Speaker 1: lot of high hopes. Uh. They disappointed in a couple
12:30
Speaker 1: of games against the Bears. They looked awful, but they
12:34
Speaker 1: bounced back nicely and they put together a couple of
12:36
Speaker 1: games against the the Giants and then last week, so, uh,
12:41
Speaker 1: they're playing up to form and it just might be
12:43
Speaker 1: a spot where they they're they're feeling like, uh, maybe
12:46
Speaker 1: the Lions coming off of the Packer game, Uh might
12:50
Speaker 1: be a little soft spot. All right. Um this next game, man,
12:58
Speaker 1: it's another one, Houston doing what they did to the Chiefs,
13:02
Speaker 1: visiting the Colts coach short home favorite, Like this feels
13:07
Speaker 1: like a prime by the Colts spot. Not only that
13:11
Speaker 1: you buy the Cults in the money lie because like
13:13
Speaker 1: you're basically saying they're gonna win. So you know what's
13:15
Speaker 1: the money line number right here? And tell me if
13:18
Speaker 1: the wise guys are taking that instead of taking the
13:20
Speaker 1: minus one? Uh No, the money line is actually only
13:24
Speaker 1: a dollar twenty, So I don't know that there's that
13:27
Speaker 1: much value in the money line when you're looking at
13:29
Speaker 1: either laying one or or laying the dollar twenty. You
13:31
Speaker 1: can lay one and lay minus one ten, so uh,
13:35
Speaker 1: not not much difference there. But we really so we
13:38
Speaker 1: knew that the public would be on the Texans here
13:41
Speaker 1: and we're debating on whether open the Texans one of
13:44
Speaker 1: the Colts one. And it's just a matter who we
13:46
Speaker 1: wanted a need going into this game, and as much
13:48
Speaker 1: as I've liked the Texans in the last three or
13:50
Speaker 1: four weeks, I think this was the spot for the Colts.
13:54
Speaker 1: So we went high on the Colts and we went
13:56
Speaker 1: uh minus one, haven't had I think that slowed him
13:59
Speaker 1: down on Had I opened the Texans one, I think
14:01
Speaker 1: the sharp guys would have taken the Colts. Um. But
14:04
Speaker 1: as it is, I opened the Colts one. And now
14:07
Speaker 1: the public has taken the Texans, but no indication yet
14:11
Speaker 1: from the Sharp guys which way they're going. So I
14:15
Speaker 1: think they'll be on the Colts, but they're They're probably
14:17
Speaker 1: waiting until closer to game time, so they don't tip
14:19
Speaker 1: their hand on this one. So you're saying, if I
14:21
Speaker 1: want the Colts, I might want to get him. Now
14:26
Speaker 1: now I want the Colt I want the spot for them,
14:31
Speaker 1: and I try to put ourselves in a position where
14:33
Speaker 1: we draw a little Texans money. Um. And like I said,
14:37
Speaker 1: and I think Texans are a great team, and but
14:39
Speaker 1: I just think this is really a good spot for
14:42
Speaker 1: the Colts and that hasn't panned out for me too well.
14:45
Speaker 1: This year a lot of these games were teams were
14:49
Speaker 1: minus one minus one and a half at home in
14:51
Speaker 1: good spots. Just hasn't really like even last week with
14:54
Speaker 1: the the Browns and UH early on in the year
14:58
Speaker 1: when the UH Sinnati was hosting UH San Francisco, a
15:02
Speaker 1: lot of spots this year, this play hasn't turned out.
15:06
Speaker 1: But you gotta stay with it. You gotta stick with
15:08
Speaker 1: those those plays. Long term that's what wins. Right Like
15:10
Speaker 1: we all got burned last week on the Browns, we
15:12
Speaker 1: all got burned last week and the Jags. But long term,
15:15
Speaker 1: that's why you got that. Also, that's why I feel
15:17
Speaker 1: like you got to take the trade. Um alright, Arizona
15:21
Speaker 1: is visiting the Giants. Do we think Arizona is getting better?
15:25
Speaker 1: Like does Danny Dimes recover from the debacle against the Patriots.
15:32
Speaker 1: We're the wise guys here, UH, wise guys are on
15:36
Speaker 1: the Giants. UM and and the public to some extent
15:39
Speaker 1: a on the on the Giants. Not a whole lot
15:41
Speaker 1: of support for the Cardinals. Now, we did open two
15:44
Speaker 1: and a half, so it's possibly just um there's might
15:48
Speaker 1: see it might have seen an opportunity just to get
15:51
Speaker 1: a good number known A lot of places would be
15:53
Speaker 1: at three. But all the early money was on the
15:55
Speaker 1: Giants from two and a half to three. At three,
15:58
Speaker 1: it slowed down a bit, but still just nothing big
16:01
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals at all. Not a whole lot of
16:03
Speaker 1: support from the general public. So it's just all Giants here. Um,
16:07
Speaker 1: I think the Giants probably are the play here, but
16:11
Speaker 1: at three, it's not a it's not a not a
16:13
Speaker 1: great play. San Francisco, big big number all of a sudden,
16:18
Speaker 1: like the leading contender in the NFC to make to
16:21
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. By the way, we wrote that an
16:23
Speaker 1: Action Network like three weeks ago, no joke. People were laughing.
16:27
Speaker 1: We're like, this is what the numbers say, San Francisco,
16:29
Speaker 1: best odds to get to the Super Bowl, best value,
16:32
Speaker 1: nine and a half point favorites over the Redskins. I
16:36
Speaker 1: think this is the most interesting game on the board
16:38
Speaker 1: because it's it's the most inflated, uh game, the most
16:43
Speaker 1: inflated team. Uh. We we've really responded to the Niners
16:48
Speaker 1: just covering against the spread and winning. Uh you know,
16:52
Speaker 1: I think there are dogs and I think four of
16:54
Speaker 1: their five wins and uh, you know, now suddenly they're
16:57
Speaker 1: laying ten points on the road. Now I know it's
16:59
Speaker 1: again is a really bad team. But you can't get
17:03
Speaker 1: more inflated line than this and um, but there's two
17:08
Speaker 1: kind of professional outfits out there that are on different
17:12
Speaker 1: sides of this game. So at plus ten we got
17:15
Speaker 1: a lot of money on the Redskins. We went down
17:18
Speaker 1: the nine and a half, and at nine and a
17:19
Speaker 1: half we've got a lot of money on the Niners.
17:21
Speaker 1: We bounced back and forth a few times. Now we're
17:24
Speaker 1: sitting at ten even money. Great two way action on
17:27
Speaker 1: this game. Um, it's probably the second highest game in
17:32
Speaker 1: terms of number of tickets written on the forty Niners.
17:35
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs have the most bets on the board
17:38
Speaker 1: of any team. The forty Niners have the second most
17:41
Speaker 1: on the board. So certainly a public game. And it
17:43
Speaker 1: looks like the sharp guys are just kind of divided
17:45
Speaker 1: as far as the number. At nine and a half
17:47
Speaker 1: they like the Niners and at ten they like the Redskins.
17:50
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you there's no value in the Niners
17:53
Speaker 1: at ten on the road. I mean, every bit of
17:55
Speaker 1: that value has been taken out over the last few
17:57
Speaker 1: weeks as they've steadily increased the in terms of power rankings.
18:02
Speaker 1: You just told me three very interesting things and It's
18:04
Speaker 1: an indication of like how in a month things can
18:08
Speaker 1: change so quickly. But the fact that there's opposite two outfits,
18:15
Speaker 1: respected outfits on opposite side of this game. But the
18:17
Speaker 1: fact that you have the most tickets on this game
18:19
Speaker 1: and the fact you have the most second most tickets
18:21
Speaker 1: on the Niners is astonishing. Yeah, it really is. I mean,
18:26
Speaker 1: you wouldn't have said that just a matter of you know,
18:27
Speaker 1: two or three weeks ago. I mean, everybody was kind
18:30
Speaker 1: of surprised at the Niners out of the game their
18:32
Speaker 1: first two games, and then then by game three they're like, hey,
18:35
Speaker 1: this team is pretty good, and then just kind of
18:38
Speaker 1: waiting for this team to get exposed against the Rams,
18:41
Speaker 1: which didn't happen. If anything, that made him look just
18:43
Speaker 1: so much better, made him look like world beaters. But
18:45
Speaker 1: I think I think that game made them look a
18:47
Speaker 1: little bit better than what they truly are, and they
18:51
Speaker 1: keep proving me wrong. But I you know, we go
18:54
Speaker 1: through this with with a team that's kind of a
18:56
Speaker 1: resurgent team and not expected to be as good as
18:59
Speaker 1: they are. It might take a six seven, eight games
19:01
Speaker 1: to to kind of catch up to what their true
19:03
Speaker 1: rating should be. This next game Jacksonville three and a
19:07
Speaker 1: half point favorites over Cincinnati. Can we skip it? Is?
19:12
Speaker 1: Everyone's on Jacksonville the soccer uh the next game though,
19:17
Speaker 1: the Chargers in Tennessee. I'm getting like split decisions um
19:25
Speaker 1: all over the place because I hear the Tennessee Titans
19:29
Speaker 1: on the right side. I hear that the Charges of
19:32
Speaker 1: the right side, like what are the wise guys doing here?
19:36
Speaker 1: They're heavy on the Titans. So we're we're pretty close
19:40
Speaker 1: to going to uh to two and a half right
19:43
Speaker 1: We're at one and a half right now. We open
19:45
Speaker 1: the game Titans one. It's another one of those games
19:47
Speaker 1: kind of similar to the Texans and Colts. You know,
19:49
Speaker 1: pretty much it tossed up. But these two teams are
19:52
Speaker 1: like mirror images of each other. You know, really good
19:55
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that are just kind of inconsistent and uh offenses
19:59
Speaker 1: that the you know, the talent is there, but they
20:02
Speaker 1: just they can't put it together. UH defense and both
20:06
Speaker 1: have good defenses, but then let's up the big plays.
20:10
Speaker 1: And so I don't know, I I think at one
20:13
Speaker 1: and a half, I mean, we're we're still getting more
20:17
Speaker 1: money on the Titans, and just because of the home
20:19
Speaker 1: field and it's just one of those plays a home
20:22
Speaker 1: team laying one one and a half um And that's
20:25
Speaker 1: why I think to get any kind of Chargers money,
20:27
Speaker 1: we may have to go to two and a half.
20:29
Speaker 1: So if I want the Chargers, I'm gonna have to
20:30
Speaker 1: wait on that one too, I think. So. I don't
20:34
Speaker 1: think there's too much value right now. And it looks
20:36
Speaker 1: like just from where the money is, it's going in
20:39
Speaker 1: that direction. And now we're finally getting a decent stretch
20:42
Speaker 1: of late games. We got the Bears and then the Saints.
20:45
Speaker 1: The Bears at three and a half. Mitch Rubinski is
20:48
Speaker 1: coming back. Um I I think I like the Bears. Yeah,
20:57
Speaker 1: this is a tough one because the Saints have just been,
21:00
Speaker 1: you know, just on a roll, beating some really good
21:03
Speaker 1: teams in the last in the last three weeks, and
21:06
Speaker 1: folks in the roll of uh you know, home team
21:10
Speaker 1: as well as on the road, and uh, here they
21:12
Speaker 1: are on the road again. It's probably a spot for
21:15
Speaker 1: the Bears. I think just the number three just indicates
21:17
Speaker 1: that they're kind of both evenly matched and it's just
21:20
Speaker 1: the home field that's kind of driving the number here.
21:23
Speaker 1: Great action on both sides, early money on the Bears.
21:28
Speaker 1: We went to three and a half briefly, but took
21:30
Speaker 1: a lot of money on the Saints that drove us
21:33
Speaker 1: right back to three. So now we're sitting at three.
21:35
Speaker 1: A little heavier on the Saints, I would say even
21:38
Speaker 1: at plus three. Um, the public is on the Saints
21:42
Speaker 1: at about a two to one ratio, but the money
21:45
Speaker 1: is pretty similar. So bigger money on the Bears, more
21:48
Speaker 1: tickets on the Saints. Great action. It's one of the
21:51
Speaker 1: more more heavily back games on the board, as you
21:53
Speaker 1: probably imagine, but a great action both ways. And we're
21:57
Speaker 1: not lopsided in the game. You didn't tell me any
22:00
Speaker 1: edge there. You gave me no lean whatsoever. No, no,
22:05
Speaker 1: I mean that's the that's the thing that I think
22:07
Speaker 1: that's the right number. I think it's a solid number.
22:09
Speaker 1: There's no there's nothing to indicate kind of one one
22:12
Speaker 1: way or the other, not even from the from the
22:14
Speaker 1: Sharp guys, Baltimore Seattle is a new brainer to me.
22:18
Speaker 1: Take the Ravens go. Yeah, you're not kidding, Um, this
22:23
Speaker 1: is our biggest game in terms of straight pets. Um,
22:28
Speaker 1: we've got more more money on the Ravens than from
22:32
Speaker 1: from the Sharp Guys. Then let me see any other
22:36
Speaker 1: game limit to the double checking. Um, yeah, the Raiders.
22:39
Speaker 1: It's pretty close between the Raiders and the Ravens. Those
22:42
Speaker 1: are the two most heavily bet games on the board
22:45
Speaker 1: for us from the wise guys in terms of just
22:47
Speaker 1: one way. So now we opened four on the game,
22:50
Speaker 1: so a lot of it was just a much higher
22:53
Speaker 1: number went to three and a half. They took the
22:55
Speaker 1: three and a half, and uh we're at three right
22:59
Speaker 1: now and I could had no support at minus three
23:02
Speaker 1: for the Seahawks. Um, the public is a little heavier
23:05
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. Uh, not by much, you know, maybe
23:08
Speaker 1: one and a half to one as as far as
23:10
Speaker 1: the ratio. But uh yeah, wise guys love the Ravens.
23:14
Speaker 1: So it's Ravens and Raiders from the wise guys. Well,
23:17
Speaker 1: guess who else loves the Ravens. Well, because when I
23:21
Speaker 1: say wise guys, you can just substitute Chad Millman when
23:24
Speaker 1: I say that, So why don't you just say why
23:26
Speaker 1: don't you just say the Millman's instead of the guys?
23:30
Speaker 1: The Millman's out there love the Ravens and the Raiders
23:33
Speaker 1: like that. Speaking of which, another one, the Eagles visiting
23:37
Speaker 1: the Cowboys prime time Sunday Night Eagles plus three. That's
23:41
Speaker 1: where the milmans are. Yep, and uh that's exactly what
23:47
Speaker 1: what we're seeing as well. Now we never got off
23:49
Speaker 1: three and this one, all we've done is we moved
23:51
Speaker 1: the money a little bit, but the ticket account is
23:54
Speaker 1: dead even I mean this, this is a great, finally,
23:56
Speaker 1: a great Sunday Night, uh match up where we're just
24:00
Speaker 1: going to draw tremendous action on both sides. But the
24:04
Speaker 1: sharp guys are favoring the Eagles. And you look at
24:07
Speaker 1: the Cowboys in their last few games, and there's another team.
24:10
Speaker 1: Kind of what I was talking about is all these
24:12
Speaker 1: teams that you think are the elite teams in the NFC,
24:14
Speaker 1: and we talked early on in the year and we
24:16
Speaker 1: really had the Cowboys right up there with the Packers
24:19
Speaker 1: and the Saints and uh and they've fallen by the wayside.
24:23
Speaker 1: And with all that talent on the offense, there's you know,
24:26
Speaker 1: I think some of these teams, some of the defenses
24:28
Speaker 1: are starting to figure out some of the uh, some
24:32
Speaker 1: of the offenses a little a little more. And uh.
24:34
Speaker 1: So we're seeing these teams that look dominant at the
24:37
Speaker 1: beginning of the year starting to kind of get exposed
24:39
Speaker 1: a little bit. No, the problem with the Cowboys is
24:42
Speaker 1: there two tackles. They're two top receivers are hurt. Uh,
24:46
Speaker 1: and they're trying too hard to get the ball to
24:48
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Elliott at a time when they don't have an
24:51
Speaker 1: offensive line they can support the run blocking. That's the
24:54
Speaker 1: problem with the Cowboys. Skoos there there you go right
24:57
Speaker 1: in a nutshell. Yeah, exactly, all right, Monday night, football boy,
25:01
Speaker 1: the Patriots are gonna go into New York to the
25:04
Speaker 1: meadowlands where the Jets are feeling so good about themselves
25:08
Speaker 1: after beating the Cowboys. And you know, my producer Patrick
25:12
Speaker 1: is walking around in his Jets hat feeling proud, and
25:16
Speaker 1: the Patriots are just going to come in and stomp
25:18
Speaker 1: on him. I have a feeling that you're right. Um,
25:25
Speaker 1: this would be with any other team ever, this would
25:28
Speaker 1: be an automatic play on the Jets. Plus pen. We
25:32
Speaker 1: opened ten on the game. Uh. We took a ton
25:35
Speaker 1: of money on the Jets, which is good because no
25:38
Speaker 1: matter how much we take, we're gonna still need the Jets.
25:40
Speaker 1: By by Monday night, the ticket count is like five
25:44
Speaker 1: to one Patriots to Jets. So we're trying to take
25:48
Speaker 1: as much early money now on the Jets, knowing that
25:50
Speaker 1: by game time it'll you know, we well, we'll still
25:54
Speaker 1: need them for our long so uh, we're gonna be
25:58
Speaker 1: big Jets fans. All the early money is on the
26:01
Speaker 1: Jets only because we have played at the number. I
26:05
Speaker 1: guess what time in is? Scooch Scooch roulette. Let's do it, brother,
26:17
Speaker 1: all right. I know for a fact that I lost
26:19
Speaker 1: last week cause I think I was all over the Browns. Yeah,
26:22
Speaker 1: and I was on the Jaguars and you were on
26:24
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. Were talked about, we were we both we
26:27
Speaker 1: both lost last week, and since we both lost, I'm
26:29
Speaker 1: going to give you a chance to go first. I'm
26:34
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Raiders. I like this team plus
26:37
Speaker 1: the points. Um, I've liked them a little bit more
26:40
Speaker 1: than a lot of my my colleagues around town earlier
26:44
Speaker 1: in the year, and they've been kind of up and down,
26:46
Speaker 1: but I like him. This week, I am going with
26:49
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles. I am joining my Millman brethren in
26:55
Speaker 1: putting my money on the Eagles, who I think are basically, uh,
26:59
Speaker 1: they's more talented than the Cowboys right now, just because
27:01
Speaker 1: of all the injuries Fly Eagles, Fly, Fly Eagles Fly, Scooch.
27:11
Speaker 1: I want you to have a great rest of the week.
27:13
Speaker 1: I appreciate you coming on your podcast. Everyone stick around.
27:16
Speaker 1: We got a very important read coming up from our
27:20
Speaker 1: friends at Air B and B. And then Simon Hunter
27:22
Speaker 1: and Dan Ravelle are coming back, uh to talk about
27:25
Speaker 1: the West Gates Super Contest. Scooch until next week, Seybody, Okay,
27:32
Speaker 1: we're back to the podcast and Uh as usual, I've
27:35
Speaker 1: got Dan Ravelle on the phone with me. We are
27:39
Speaker 1: going to make our selections for the Westgate Las Vegas
27:42
Speaker 1: Super Contest. We're trying to win one point five million dollars.
27:46
Speaker 1: Later on in the show, we're gonna bring up professional
27:48
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. He's gonna grade our picks, put us
27:51
Speaker 1: in a different direction if he doesn't like what we're choosing,
27:53
Speaker 1: if he thinks we're too square, if we're not making
27:55
Speaker 1: the right choices. From a game theory perspective. For the
27:59
Speaker 1: contest um last week, Darren, we were two and three
28:03
Speaker 1: coming off of four in one week. That was no fun.
28:06
Speaker 1: The Lions. We needed a miracle sit down from Jamal
28:11
Speaker 1: Williams at the end of the Money Night game to
28:14
Speaker 1: cover that. Lions plus four. Whoa that? Let me let
28:19
Speaker 1: me just tell you. I mean it is really as
28:21
Speaker 1: someone who has not been betting my entire life to
28:25
Speaker 1: to to root against the different root for or against
28:29
Speaker 1: the different game that goes on, it's just it's it's unreal.
28:34
Speaker 1: And that one was because you know, I wasn't a
28:37
Speaker 1: better for the girly game. I mean that one was
28:40
Speaker 1: pretty crazy. Yeah, that was. You could see it coming
28:44
Speaker 1: that way too. You could see it happening with that
28:46
Speaker 1: that the whole way, Like the way that game was
28:48
Speaker 1: playing out with the Lions only scoring field goals. We
28:51
Speaker 1: knew that was going to be the shot. All right. Listen,
28:54
Speaker 1: you sent me some ideas you had about the games
28:59
Speaker 1: that you like this week. UM, go ahead, you tell
29:03
Speaker 1: me what you're thinking right now. Listen, I am, I am.
29:10
Speaker 1: I was a hater against the Jets. I said, you know,
29:14
Speaker 1: Sam Darnald not going to make a difference with this team.
29:18
Speaker 1: I saw enough. I think they're good enough. I think,
29:23
Speaker 1: you know, Levian might finally have something going. And I
29:27
Speaker 1: don't think the Patriots are going to cover nine and
29:30
Speaker 1: a half. So I like the Jets plus nine and
29:33
Speaker 1: a half. Um, I would you say that's gonna be
29:38
Speaker 1: a you're that's gonna be a no. Okay, all right,
29:43
Speaker 1: we start off on the foot. We always do good. Okay, Uh, Philly, Philly, Okay,
29:50
Speaker 1: you know Dallas. I really liked this game going in, UM,
29:54
Speaker 1: but I am nauseous about Dallas now. Uh. And I
30:00
Speaker 1: think that and they have some there's some injuries going on.
30:03
Speaker 1: I like Philly plus three in that game. Ding ding
30:07
Speaker 1: ding ding. I love it, you love it? Okay, So
30:12
Speaker 1: so I think we have one. I really like, uh,
30:18
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals. I thought, I think they're there. I
30:23
Speaker 1: think Kyler needed a couple of games to get going.
30:27
Speaker 1: Uh and I like getting three. I like Arizona plus
30:32
Speaker 1: three in this game. Okay, we can talk about that one.
30:37
Speaker 1: What we can talk about that one? Okay? Uh. Seattle,
30:45
Speaker 1: they haven't been convincing obviously if you look at their
30:49
Speaker 1: uh you know what what they've done. They've in the
30:52
Speaker 1: winds that they've had, They've they've you know, barely pulled
30:55
Speaker 1: it off, but they pulled it off. I I like
30:59
Speaker 1: see Attle um minus four and I am my last
31:05
Speaker 1: in my last game. I like, Now I have to choose.
31:10
Speaker 1: I need I like both l A teams. This week.
31:14
Speaker 1: So I will let you, and it has to be
31:16
Speaker 1: one of them. It has to be one of them.
31:19
Speaker 1: I will let you choose the Chargers plus two for
31:24
Speaker 1: the Rams minus three. Alright, Uh, Number one, I hate
31:29
Speaker 1: the Seattle pick. I actually am so all in on
31:33
Speaker 1: the Ravens. But number two, I actually like the Chargers pick.
31:39
Speaker 1: It's a hard game to handicap the Chargers in the Titans,
31:41
Speaker 1: and so is every game. I look at all these games, Chad,
31:45
Speaker 1: now that's going through it, and I do a first path.
31:47
Speaker 1: I just want everyone to know, and I think they
31:49
Speaker 1: probably do that, like you know, like you say, oh,
31:53
Speaker 1: you need five games every week. I've gone through this.
31:57
Speaker 1: I can't find five on the first path. That's how
32:01
Speaker 1: hard this is. Look, there's never an obvious choice, and
32:05
Speaker 1: a lot of times I find my first instinct is
32:09
Speaker 1: actually wrong. Like you know, I will immediately see games
32:15
Speaker 1: that I like as soon as the line is open,
32:17
Speaker 1: and just by virtue of sort of pattern recognition and
32:22
Speaker 1: philosophies that I like. You know, I I tend to
32:25
Speaker 1: look for life short home favorites, short home dogs. I
32:29
Speaker 1: tend to look for teams that got blown out the
32:31
Speaker 1: week before where I think there's going to be what
32:34
Speaker 1: are you doing? What are you doing? What is happening?
32:36
Speaker 1: Are you opening a bag of potato chips? Can you
32:41
Speaker 1: hear me? Yes? I can. What do you do there?
32:44
Speaker 1: And what are you doing back there? I'm doing nothing
32:47
Speaker 1: like my phone is. It's like it's like the iPhone.
32:51
Speaker 1: It's it's like they need to they want me to
32:53
Speaker 1: buy the new phone. I could barely hear you. So anyways,
32:57
Speaker 1: I was saying, like, I'm looking for teams that up
33:00
Speaker 1: blown out the week before, teams that are, uh that
33:03
Speaker 1: I think will be a little diminished or a little
33:05
Speaker 1: over value. You looking because if it's too obvious, it's
33:10
Speaker 1: going to be public exactly, and so then there's no value.
33:13
Speaker 1: But it's not. It's look, as the season goes on,
33:15
Speaker 1: it gets harder, right. I thought last week, actually, I
33:18
Speaker 1: thought last week was one of the weeks where every
33:22
Speaker 1: game was clear to me. And in Project to fifty six,
33:26
Speaker 1: which you can follow in the Action Network gap toft
33:29
Speaker 1: or bust Um, where I'm betting every single game this year,
33:33
Speaker 1: I thought I was gonna kill it and I only
33:34
Speaker 1: went eight in six and I needed, like like you,
33:37
Speaker 1: I needed Jamal Williams at the end of the game
33:41
Speaker 1: in order to make sure that I won that game. So,
33:43
Speaker 1: um yeah, it's freaking hard to handicap. It's freaking hard
33:48
Speaker 1: to pick five games every single week. Um. I like
33:52
Speaker 1: your Eagles pick, I like your Chargers pick. I think
33:55
Speaker 1: we're both gonna be on the same side there. Um,
34:01
Speaker 1: but I am against you in a lot of the
34:02
Speaker 1: other games. So what I want to do is bring
34:06
Speaker 1: in Simon Hunter and professional better from New Jersey who's
34:10
Speaker 1: been guiding us on our Westgate one point five million
34:12
Speaker 1: dollar Super Contact journey, and he can weigh in judgment
34:16
Speaker 1: on us. And now a word from a wise guy
34:25
Speaker 1: with Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, good morning boys, Happy week seven.
34:36
Speaker 1: What does Simon say today? Do you get it? That
34:44
Speaker 1: was a tough week last week, but I'm excited about
34:48
Speaker 1: back this week. A lot of us. What was tough
34:50
Speaker 1: about last week is like, you know, the Browns crap
34:54
Speaker 1: of the bed, and um, there were so many games
34:59
Speaker 1: and the box. Jesus, how did we choose the box?
35:04
Speaker 1: How did we choose the box? Simon? Yeah, I mean
35:09
Speaker 1: we were we were due for a Winston meltdown game.
35:11
Speaker 1: As soon as that game started, I think you were
35:13
Speaker 1: you were busy with me and Darren were text and
35:14
Speaker 1: we're just like, oh my god, oh my god. So
35:17
Speaker 1: that was that was a terrible one, but they make
35:20
Speaker 1: you feel better. The leader of the whole contest when
35:22
Speaker 1: oh five this week, So at least we're not that guy.
35:25
Speaker 1: Well that's good. So we didn't lose too much ground
35:27
Speaker 1: and like to be how did you say the leader
35:29
Speaker 1: last year? What the leader of this leader? The leader
35:32
Speaker 1: of this year? He went over five last week, so
35:34
Speaker 1: last dropped down to third. Okay, that's how good he
35:38
Speaker 1: was doing. How many games? How many games does the
35:41
Speaker 1: leader of the pack have one? Right now? Um, I
35:46
Speaker 1: mean we're on a historical pace. Just the odds were
35:49
Speaker 1: fourth though, just because so many more people are doing
35:51
Speaker 1: it now. Um, there was a guy I'm pretty sure
35:55
Speaker 1: he was seven and three, so um, I'm I'm pretty
36:02
Speaker 1: sure that's what it was, but that might not be
36:04
Speaker 1: right saying he might have lost or tired one, so
36:07
Speaker 1: he might be twenty six three and one. But um,
36:11
Speaker 1: it's all like, no, they're never gonna keep that pace
36:13
Speaker 1: up because they're not obviously not using a system, because
36:16
Speaker 1: that's why that guy went oh five, He's just picking.
36:18
Speaker 1: He's not using anything to back his picks, so it'll
36:22
Speaker 1: be it'll be rare for us to go oh and five,
36:25
Speaker 1: then it would ever be go five and out like
36:28
Speaker 1: the way we're playing right now, we're doing sharp and chalk. Well,
36:31
Speaker 1: we'll never just go home five hopefully. Listen, Simon, don't
36:36
Speaker 1: underestimate us. If anybody, if anybody can go on and
36:40
Speaker 1: five using multiple philosophies that they think are geared to
36:43
Speaker 1: making them go five. And now it's me and Darren.
36:47
Speaker 1: I don't know my man, Darren's my man, Dare's getting
36:50
Speaker 1: pretty sharp as these weeks go along. Here I came
36:52
Speaker 1: and talked down on my man last week. That was
36:54
Speaker 1: a great call in the Jets. It's true, and we
36:56
Speaker 1: totally ignored him. I know, I feel terrible. I feel terrible.
37:01
Speaker 1: Well guess what. Guess what? He he likes the Jets
37:05
Speaker 1: again this week, which I hate. And so, um, let
37:10
Speaker 1: me give you Darren's picks the woman, some of which
37:14
Speaker 1: I just outright rejected. Uh he chose the Jets plus
37:17
Speaker 1: nine and a half. I said, absolutely not. Um I
37:23
Speaker 1: actually do like that, but um I wouldn't do it
37:26
Speaker 1: for the super contest, just because, like I think we
37:28
Speaker 1: said earlier, the Patriots there are no rules for the Patriots.
37:31
Speaker 1: They break all the rules. But that's a good spot.
37:34
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna betting on the Jets again and that spot,
37:37
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't do in the Super cont What makes
37:39
Speaker 1: you say you're gonna bet him on a bet on
37:40
Speaker 1: him in that spot? Um, Like, I have this line
37:44
Speaker 1: at six, so it's like nine and a half ten.
37:48
Speaker 1: So for my system, I'm gonna play that. But in
37:50
Speaker 1: the Super Contest, like, we're gonna play that game and
37:53
Speaker 1: the Jets will lose one. So that's why it's like,
37:57
Speaker 1: I like, I liked it long term gambling on that
38:00
Speaker 1: when the short term it's not a good Super Contest
38:03
Speaker 1: because there's other games we can find it better than
38:05
Speaker 1: that one and remind people what you mean when you
38:07
Speaker 1: say long term. We talked a little bit about this
38:10
Speaker 1: last week in relation to the Browns. Explain sort of
38:14
Speaker 1: last week we got we literally got lucky on the
38:17
Speaker 1: two the two games that didn't work out for what
38:19
Speaker 1: you were talking about, like going against the public where
38:23
Speaker 1: the Jags and the Browns and then the Jags end
38:25
Speaker 1: up getting a lot of money at the end. So
38:27
Speaker 1: people thought that was public, but that was that was
38:29
Speaker 1: mainly sharp money coming in late um. But other games,
38:33
Speaker 1: like when you're fading in the public, like last week,
38:36
Speaker 1: I hit really big on the jets Um because that
38:40
Speaker 1: was like I don't know the exact number, but I
38:43
Speaker 1: think I saw some books for over nine of the
38:45
Speaker 1: money was on the Cowboys. So that's one of those
38:50
Speaker 1: long term percentage plays. If you just if you just
38:52
Speaker 1: ride with the book fading the public all year, you're
38:57
Speaker 1: at the end of year, you're going to make a
38:58
Speaker 1: percentage of that. That's why Vegas to be this The
39:00
Speaker 1: public always loses long term against Vegas. So that's what
39:04
Speaker 1: I meant. Like the Browns one, do you watch the
39:06
Speaker 1: whole game? The referees they're dictating a lot of these
39:08
Speaker 1: games right now and that was one of those games
39:10
Speaker 1: that got dictated by the refs. By Brown's game, The
39:13
Speaker 1: rest are killing us. The randomness of the rest calls
39:16
Speaker 1: is redefining what it means to be a better and
39:19
Speaker 1: it's so frustrating. She hadn't always been this way though.
39:23
Speaker 1: I think people are just noticing more because it's more
39:26
Speaker 1: more money, more like money is in the States instead
39:29
Speaker 1: of off shore, and you know, like gambling was a
39:31
Speaker 1: little taboo, so people wouldn't really complain about it, saying
39:34
Speaker 1: like how much power these refs have to change the
39:38
Speaker 1: outcome of these games and spread totals. But I think
39:41
Speaker 1: it's better now that more people are seeing because I
39:43
Speaker 1: do think there's gonna be a big change coming where
39:45
Speaker 1: they'll be able to review all these little calls because
39:47
Speaker 1: some of this stuff is just so egregious. I mean
39:49
Speaker 1: that that Lions game, we should have won that outright,
39:52
Speaker 1: and the fact that we had to sweat it at
39:53
Speaker 1: the end. They're just it's just ridiculous the stuff going
39:56
Speaker 1: on these refs right now. Little. I mean, can I
39:58
Speaker 1: ask you, can I the fact that more people are betting?
40:04
Speaker 1: Does that make it hard? Will that make the number
40:09
Speaker 1: better and therefore harder? You know what I'm saying, Like,
40:12
Speaker 1: because we always say, well, you know it's too late
40:14
Speaker 1: to get I know you want to bet super Bowl,
40:16
Speaker 1: but it's too late, the numbers too refined or whatever.
40:20
Speaker 1: Does that put a greater importance on betting early because
40:25
Speaker 1: there's more of a they'll be there's such a mass
40:29
Speaker 1: now or do you think that's overrated? I think it's
40:33
Speaker 1: honestly been really great for taking these dogs and the
40:36
Speaker 1: money lines of these dogs is you're getting a lot
40:38
Speaker 1: of extra juice these days because so much more money
40:42
Speaker 1: that's coming in on these favorites, like the The funny
40:47
Speaker 1: thing with this year has been I think it's I
40:50
Speaker 1: forget this that was, but it's the most dogs that
40:52
Speaker 1: I've ever covered to start a year. Um. I definitely
40:58
Speaker 1: see it that it's changed in the sense that it
41:01
Speaker 1: these lines have been moving way more than they used to.
41:05
Speaker 1: Like lines used to open, say they would dropped by
41:08
Speaker 1: two points. That was like insane, that was in insane
41:11
Speaker 1: amount of movement in the last couple of years, and
41:13
Speaker 1: now that's kind of common practice every week now there's
41:16
Speaker 1: big line movements just because so much more money is
41:18
Speaker 1: coming in now than you still all right, let me
41:21
Speaker 1: tell you the two games that Darren and I agree
41:25
Speaker 1: on so far. The Eagles plus three against the Cowboys
41:30
Speaker 1: are very banged up Cowboys team, and the Chargers plus
41:35
Speaker 1: two two and a half against the Titans. Uh. I
41:42
Speaker 1: would roll that ego points. I mean it's a it's
41:44
Speaker 1: a chalky favorite, I mean a dog. That's what it's
41:48
Speaker 1: sitting at three, So that's nice. I'll take those points
41:52
Speaker 1: with that one. But I definitely wouldn't do that Chargers one.
41:56
Speaker 1: That's just not a good spot. Um, they're a banged
42:01
Speaker 1: up team and they're traveling across country. Go play a
42:06
Speaker 1: really good defensive team that might be getting a boost
42:10
Speaker 1: here from tann Hill, a new quarterback starting for him. Um,
42:13
Speaker 1: I can see why you want to do. I mean,
42:15
Speaker 1: Tennessee looks like their offenses terrible. I mean they've had
42:20
Speaker 1: back to back weeks where I don't think they've scored
42:22
Speaker 1: more than eight points. But um, I actually like the
42:25
Speaker 1: Titans in the spot. Now it's gonna get ugly, boys,
42:31
Speaker 1: these next couple weeks, you're gonna see it's gonna get
42:33
Speaker 1: real ugly because these lines are gonna get really smart.
42:37
Speaker 1: They're already getting smart, all right. So then let me
42:39
Speaker 1: ask you another one. Let me ask you another one.
42:41
Speaker 1: Are we taking the Titans, then, Chaid, I don't know.
42:44
Speaker 1: We're not. No, no, no, we're not taking let's say,
42:46
Speaker 1: let's do it. We're not taking that so far. We
42:48
Speaker 1: just like the Eagles of plus three, and we're all
42:50
Speaker 1: in agreement on the Eagles plus three. Here's a game
42:53
Speaker 1: that we are on opposite size of. Darren like Seattle,
42:57
Speaker 1: I love the Ravens tie breaking for us I do
43:04
Speaker 1: like the Ravens here. Um, is it three and a
43:06
Speaker 1: half of the competition or only three? H only? Look,
43:11
Speaker 1: I think it's three. But um, yeah, because Seattle, Seattle,
43:17
Speaker 1: they're they're just Russell Wilson right now. Every everything is
43:21
Speaker 1: if you look at them on paper, their whole team
43:23
Speaker 1: is actually really bad. Um. And the Ravens have been
43:28
Speaker 1: a weird team this year where they're every week wherever
43:31
Speaker 1: they're playing, they played to that level of competition. They're
43:34
Speaker 1: They're a funny team. But I like the Ravens in
43:36
Speaker 1: that spot better than Seattle. Do you like this game
43:39
Speaker 1: generally for the contest? Uh M, I probably would. I
43:49
Speaker 1: like other dogs better. I think. Then let's just pick
43:52
Speaker 1: one game. Let's just pick one game this week and
43:55
Speaker 1: go one and know. Yeah, isn't easy, my friend. We're
44:01
Speaker 1: trying to pick the five best. You want winners, you want,
44:06
Speaker 1: if you want, if you listen, listen, Uh, if you
44:10
Speaker 1: want to do this game, I'll take the Ravens. If
44:13
Speaker 1: you want to do this game, Jet, I'm putting it
44:16
Speaker 1: on the side for a second because there's one other
44:18
Speaker 1: game that you and I are just on complete opposite
44:20
Speaker 1: sides of, and that is the Rams. And the Falcons.
44:25
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like you have to take the
44:26
Speaker 1: Falcons in this spot. Sign up? Yeah, I mean, it's
44:31
Speaker 1: it's an auto play, but I would you couldn't pay me.
44:35
Speaker 1: I'm actually it's rare. I passed on games. This is
44:37
Speaker 1: one of the games. Are probably just gonna do the
44:39
Speaker 1: over and not better side because I love Atlanta, But
44:44
Speaker 1: I just I can't. I can't back that defense. I mean,
44:49
Speaker 1: golfers look absolutely horrible, but I just can't back and
44:54
Speaker 1: I mean what they showed me, like, okay, okay, can
44:56
Speaker 1: we make a deal. Can we make a deal. How
44:58
Speaker 1: about I give you the Falcons and you give me
45:00
Speaker 1: the Jets. I don't know. UM, don't don't force that.
45:06
Speaker 1: Don't force the falcons. Don't force that one in. Yeah,
45:09
Speaker 1: we don't. We don't need to. Um, we don't need to.
45:12
Speaker 1: We don't need to make rash decisions yet. There's a
45:14
Speaker 1: lot of games on the board. To continue to be sharp,
45:20
Speaker 1: even though we've agreed always trying to be sharp people.
45:23
Speaker 1: Though we've agreed for joke, you public to be here.
45:26
Speaker 1: Rash decisions, people, not our decisions. Don't get angry, Darren, Yes,
45:33
Speaker 1: I'm sorry you would The morning I'm hurt. You're hurt.
45:37
Speaker 1: You're hurt, But Simon, you're not leaving us with many
45:40
Speaker 1: choices here. The other game that I really like is
45:42
Speaker 1: Detroit plus one and a half. I mean, if you want,
45:47
Speaker 1: I can tell you the games I really like this week?
45:49
Speaker 1: All right, just do that? Do you want me to
45:52
Speaker 1: do that? I love Oakland. I think it's down to
45:56
Speaker 1: plus four and a half. I love ago Bears. I
46:00
Speaker 1: think they're minus three and a half at home. And
46:04
Speaker 1: for the big Chalk one I do really like. Um.
46:10
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess it's not chocolate all at this
46:11
Speaker 1: point because the line keeps moving. But Denver, everyone's gonna
46:14
Speaker 1: be taking Denver tonight, um, even though I know the
46:18
Speaker 1: public's all over the Chiefs, but this is just this
46:21
Speaker 1: is the reeks of a trap game. The Bronco isn't.
46:26
Speaker 1: So you want to take Denver right now? Um? You
46:31
Speaker 1: guys like them all, all those other ones that gave
46:33
Speaker 1: you like you like that Bear than Oakland or sat
46:35
Speaker 1: I mean Chicago. No, I like Oakland too. I don't
46:38
Speaker 1: love the Bears, um, bear, when Chad doesn't like the Bears,
46:46
Speaker 1: automatically take the Bears. All right, Darren, Here's what we
46:52
Speaker 1: should do. Let's go Eagles, Raiders, Bears, Denver, and Ravens
47:05
Speaker 1: one more time. Eagles yep plus three, Raiders plus four
47:10
Speaker 1: and a half, Bears minus three and a half, Denver
47:13
Speaker 1: plus three, and the Ravens. Okay, I feel good about that. Yeah,
47:20
Speaker 1: I did. I mean, I know we're probably gonna sent
47:23
Speaker 1: our pictures today, so I mean, I don't really know
47:25
Speaker 1: if you even need to have an extra one. Um,
47:29
Speaker 1: but I mean if we really won't, we can keep
47:31
Speaker 1: Darren's jets as like a last minute of flipping. Well,
47:34
Speaker 1: we got I gotta send him in today. It's Thursday.
47:36
Speaker 1: We're recording on Thursday today, and if we're taking the
47:39
Speaker 1: raven if we're taking the Broncos, I gotta send him
47:41
Speaker 1: in right now. I'm good with how you feeling. There's
47:49
Speaker 1: just a lot of dogs we're doing. It's a lot
47:51
Speaker 1: of dogs. I'm okay with that. I like playing the
47:54
Speaker 1: dogs in this game though, in the I mean, in
47:58
Speaker 1: this type of super contest Simon strategy game strategy. I
48:02
Speaker 1: know that it's different from as you always say, it's
48:06
Speaker 1: remember it's not you straight up bedding. Is that okay?
48:09
Speaker 1: Are you okay with that? Definitely? I mean, at the
48:13
Speaker 1: same time, we're only doing picking five games. You do
48:16
Speaker 1: have to throw that stump some of that stuff out.
48:18
Speaker 1: But I do like all these dog spots were picking
48:21
Speaker 1: and like, these these are good numbers. I know the
48:22
Speaker 1: Oakland numbers come way down, but I still like that.
48:25
Speaker 1: It's about four and a half. Al Right, guys, that's
48:29
Speaker 1: what we're doing. Then we got the Eagles plus three,
48:32
Speaker 1: Oakland plus four and a half, Bears minus three and
48:34
Speaker 1: a half, Denver plus three, and I think we got
48:37
Speaker 1: the Ravens plus three Right now at the super contest lines.
48:42
Speaker 1: I'm okay with all those games. Really, I mean, we
48:46
Speaker 1: don't want to do any of these big favorites, Like
48:48
Speaker 1: I don't really want to know if I want to
48:49
Speaker 1: do San Fray, the Bills. Definitely not the Bills at seventeen. No,
48:54
Speaker 1: I wouldn't even think that. It's so many. Yeah, it's
48:56
Speaker 1: too many, Darren, wouldn't even do that. What I mean,
49:04
Speaker 1: if you're looking for No, I like what we got.
49:09
Speaker 1: I think we're good. Yeah, I like it. Alright, boys, listen,
49:13
Speaker 1: we just gotta put last week behind us and look
49:15
Speaker 1: ahead to this week. Here we go again. Eagles plus three,
49:19
Speaker 1: Broncos plus three Bears plus three and a half Ravens
49:23
Speaker 1: plus three Oakland plus four and a half. A lot
49:25
Speaker 1: of short short dogs right there. That makes it scary.
49:30
Speaker 1: Dann Revel from the Action Networks, Simon Hunter, Professional Better,
49:33
Speaker 1: thank you for coming on the podcast until next week. Alright,
49:38
Speaker 1: I want to thank everybody for coming on the show. Scooch,
49:40
Speaker 1: Dann Ravel, Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from
49:46
Speaker 1: the Action Network. Download the podcast from Apple review, rate, subscribe, unsubscribe, resubscribe,
49:53
Speaker 1: get it at where does It radio dot com and
49:57
Speaker 1: search for the favorites at the radio dot com app.
50:00
Speaker 1: Look everywhere you get your podcast. Until next week, folks,
50:04
Speaker 1: I love you