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Transcript

Markets Before The Midterms · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, registered broker, live from Gillette, Illinois.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Today is the midterm election day.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: And on top of that, we have to talk about Australian beef production and the NAS soybean crush.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were red in the front month, but green in the rest.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: In the front month, they were down 70 cents at 58.18.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here, I'd like to shout out our sponsor plus 500.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: We actually use trade, we actually use plus 500 every single day to trade and quote the markets.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: And at looking at it right now, the December corn contract is down this morning at 444 and a half.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: January beans are at 1214 and a quarter.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And the December Chicago wheat contract is at 602 even.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Looking towards the weather, before we get to south of the equator, let's talk about here at home.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: The Corn Belt is going to see rain through Wednesday, followed by seven to eight days of very dry weather with the continued kind of warm weather wave that we've been having.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Warm to very warm, I should say.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to be 20 degrees above normal in large parts of the Midwest.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's been an eerie feeling, I know, around here.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: It just hasn't quite felt like fall yet.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: And because of that, we haven't had a hard freeze.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: The bugs are still out there.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: It'd be nice to get a cold, crisp morning at some point.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: But looking down south, uh, southern Brazil and Paraguay are going to get one to four inches tonight through tomorrow night, and then Friday and Saturday again.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Argentina, the current rain is going to be the biggest November 12th.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Then it's going to be completely dry from there on out, and they're actually going to be 12 to 10 degrees below normal.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: So kind of an interesting contrast between North and South America.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: We had the NAS soybean crush come out yesterday, and NAS put the September soybean crush at 198.8 million bushels below the low end of the trade range average of 200 million and 3.2 million under the 202 average.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: This is the second straight month that the trade has come in high.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: And then you can look at the other columns on there, the corn and the corn for the soybean stocks for oil.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: All fields, every column there hitting below the average.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: On the livestock discussion side of things, I've talked in the past before about Australian beef production.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: And when we think about our biggest competitors, we often look towards South America.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: But what we forget about Australia is not only do they have a really large cow herd with a lot of untapped resources, their population is rather small and mostly isolated to their coasts.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: So when we add on the fact that they have a big cow herd, most of their beef production, a very, very large percentile of it, gets exported to other countries.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: And as we can see, their cow herds are actually growing.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Australia slaughtered 9.6 million adult cattle in the 12 months through June, the most since 1979.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: US imports from Australia hit a record of nine hundred nine hundred and eighty-five million pounds.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: And it's maybe just a bit more concerning the amount of beef that they are possibly exporting to people that we would consider our customers.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe something to keep on our kind of peripheral vision when it comes to our international situation as beef producers.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is the big headline today, and I don't need to tell you guys because you all probably know it.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and fill out your ballots today.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Midterm elections could jolt stocks if Democrats sweep Congress.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Investors are not fully yet accounting for Democrats winning both the House and the Senate.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: A blue wave scenario that could weigh on the share of price in the short term on Wednesday.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Big Democrat gains could further weigh on an already ailing AI trade on the fear of restrictions on data centers and gain traction nationwide.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's been an interesting market for sure.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we've had IPOs of companies.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen uh a growth in the tech space like no other, but at the same time, it has everyone on edge.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: You slap on this midterm election here with a possible sweep of blue in both the House and the Senate, and it could do some interesting things to the SP and NASDAQ.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: We'll make sure and report on that, especially this afternoon in Davis' show.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be quoting it up tomorrow in Ag Squawk AM as well.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Looking towards the economic calendar today, we got a lot on there.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: The Purdue Ag sentiment comes out at 8:30 a.m.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: The Joel's Job Report and the factory orders both at 9.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: But the other thing that is on the economic calendar is going to be all of this political news that comes out today.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: There's only three on the list, but a lot of things that will be discussed throughout any news channel channels, social media, Twitter, you name it, there is going to be discussions that affect these markets today.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and watch the price of oil.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: It absolutely drove the market yesterday and all the stocks as well.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: I say that every single morning, and I really mean it.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's great hearing from you guys.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: If you have anything you'd like to see on the show, let us know down in the comments below or call us.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'll pop on our phone number here.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to hear from you.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: If you have any ideas, call that number.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Ask for Jed.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'd love to hear any ideas, any questions that you have about the market.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you'd like to go in more in-depth with that and get in-depth news every single day, go to our website at agbull.com and sign up for our intel package.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: I truly believe there's no better intel package out there right now that truly is as unbiased as any.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching this morning.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's always a pleasure talking to you.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.