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Episode 4 - 3/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:20
Hello and welcome to episode four of the All Systems Go
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Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
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Everyone Happy Tuesday, but of course, happy March Madness.
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The madness begins tonight, guys.
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We have the first four couple play in games here tonight.
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And again, as you mentioned yesterday, it's not just March
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Madness time. We got the NIT, we got the CBI
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coming up later this week. So I do have a 5 pack of sweats
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for you tonight, including three college basketball games.
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I bet on both of the first four games.
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So excited about that as well as a bet in the NIT involving a
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very sharp line move with one team motivated to hopefully
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cover this number and the other team who is not playing their
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best player because he's banged up and he's probably going to be
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a top draft pick. So 3 here in college hoops.
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I also have two bets and the NHL for you.
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I have a money line play looking to fade a team on the second leg
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of a back-to-back, a rest first tired system match as well as a
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total that we're going to attack here in the NHLI also have the
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rhythm player prop of the day so there's one player in particular
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that rhythm has a very high grade on in the NBA in in in
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particular the combo of rebounds and assists so stay tuned for
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that. I'm also going to give you my
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NFL draft first bet of the draft here.
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A prop here When it comes to quarterbacks what is the over
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under and where am I going. I'm going to give you that here
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in one second so we have a lot to get to on today's pod here
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episode 4. Looking back toward yesterday,
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bit of a frustrating night. We got a good hit with the Caps
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and the Flames going over. It was nice to see a bunch of
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scoring there in the second period and then were able to
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catch that over over six. It landed on A52 win there for
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the Caps. What was really frustrating was
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our NBA games and it reminded me last night guys, of why NBA is
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probably the most frustrating and hardest sport to bet when it
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comes to sports betting. I've been so locked into college
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basketball for quite a while here at this point, really ever
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since the NFL ended and hailed to the Chiefs once again for
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catching our Super Bowl ticket. But really, NBA, it's just so
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frustrating because one injuries and not knowing whether or not
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guys will play. So first bet that we had was
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Miami. I got a + 2, thought we beat the
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closing line, got down to 1 1/2, thought Jimmy Butler would play,
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he didn't play. And then what happened?
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The line went back up to the 76ers.
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They end up closing -3 and even. So you know we were in it pretty
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much first first half for sure and then got down big, came back
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late and then what happens? You had Duncan Robinson get hurt
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and I want to give a shout out. What's the opposite of a shout
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out? A shame out maybe.
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I'm going to shame these two players, Patty Mills and Delon
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Wright. If anyone watch this game, they
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did absolutely nothing for us. They combined one for 10 for
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four points. So Patty Mills and Delon Wright
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thank you for showing up last night.
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But again, Miami lost by 7, which was frustrating, but the
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one that really annoyed me was the total bet that we had
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because we did our part. I think This is why sports
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betting, it's so difficult because you can do your part as
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a better and then the teams just don't come through for you.
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What I'm talking about is that T Wolves Jazz game.
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Remember we got the T Wolves Jazz over at 223 1/2.
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Now why is that a good thing? Do you guys see where it closed
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the total closed at 225 1/2. So we beat the closing line.
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I mean we betted at over 223 1/2, closed 225 1/2.
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We did our part. We kind of really predicted that
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market perfectly and got a great CLV play of betting at two
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points better than when it close at then what happens they pretty
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much go ice cold. second-half it lands on what 118 coming up,
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what, five points short. So that was a frustrating one.
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So overall one and 2 -, 1.1 units.
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We're looking for a bounce back spot here today and hopefully we
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got a good board because yesterday again it was like, I
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don't know, trying to find the the least worst plays of the day
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and it reminded me why. I really don't love betting the
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NBA, but that's a whole another story.
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So anyway guys, we have a 5 pack today, 3 college basketball, 2
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NHL, as well as the rhythm prop of the day in the NBA.
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But I want to first start off before diving our bets.
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NFL draft prop. So not a lot of people reach out
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to me about NFL draft, probably because you know, people want to
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bet on it. Of course I love betting drafts
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in particular, I mentioned a little bit yesterday, teased it
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just in terms of, you know, draft prop betting, it can be
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really profitable, you know, as a bankroll builder.
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Because if you do your homework, if you stay plugged into the
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mock drafts, I'm going to give you insight here into one bet
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that I just made yesterday because of largely the number
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and the mock draft from Mel Kiper that just came out today.
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But really, if you do your homework, if you track the way
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the lines are moving, if you kind of read the tea leaves of
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who to listen to. And the important thing with
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mock drafts is everyone's got one.
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But don't pay attention to the people in their basement.
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Pay attention of you know, Kiper and Mcshea and Daniel Jeremiah
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and the guys who actually are tied in have Intel, have sources
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really know what the teams are thinking here.
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So I tweeted out yesterday and really what I was excited about
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is that one of my favorite props to bet before you get to
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individual props like who will go before this person or like 2
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head to Total quarterback selected in the first round.
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Now right off the bat, one thing you notice is that the over is
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really juiced up. The over 4 1/2 quarterbacks
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taken in the first round is -175 S Again, that's a minus number.
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Why is it a minus number? That's probably the side of the
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liability. That's probably the side that
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smart money is leaning. Now the under 4 1/2 is plus 140.
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Now I got, I just bet the over 4 1/2.
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I found one book that was a little bit better.
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It was around a -. 165, I want to say.
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But DraftKings has it at -175 S That's the other thing with
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these prop bets, especially when it comes to the NFL draft.
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Shop around. Different books have different
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numbers, but I'm going with the over 4 1/2 Q BS in round one now
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I think we can pretty much say there's going to be at least
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four. Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels,
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Drake May and McCarthy from Michigan.
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So there's four. So I tweeted out yesterday
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saying, hey, you're going to get those four.
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Those are first round picks. They may even go, you know, all
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top ten. That means we need one more to
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to cash that over for an app into cash and to get 5 or more
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and cash the over 4 1/2. So I just tweeted out yesterday
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I said hey, you know you would need to if you want to go over 4
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1/2 you need either Beau Nix or Michael Pennix Junior.
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Now I know Spencer Rattler's kind of in that conversation,
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he's probably going to be second round picker later, but I'm
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going to go over 4 1/2 because in particular I like the line
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movement. This was, I want to say closer
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to even money just about, I don't know a couple weeks ago.
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So you're not getting the best of the number at this point, but
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you know, maybe this thing gets up to -200 -, 300 or more.
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So you may end up getting some CLV here.
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But I open up my ESPN plus today and I said and I got an e-mail
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every morning from ESPN and they say Mel Kiper, Mel Kiper just
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draft, dropped his latest mock draft.
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And I looked at Mel Kiper's draft and here's what he has.
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He has Caleb Williams going one to the Bears.
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Now that's pretty much fait accompli at this point.
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He's -3500 to go first overall. So, expecting that to happen, he
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has Jayden Daniels going two. I'm actually intrigued by
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betting Daniels to go second overall.
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He's -170. Again, it's a minus number, but
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you could beat the closing line if that thing continues to move.
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But he's got Daniels second to Washington.
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He's got Drake May going third to the Patriots, and then he has
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JJ McCarthy going 11th to the Vikings.
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Remember, they traded up to get the 11th pick.
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And then guess who he had going 12th overall?
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Beau Knicks to the Denver Broncos.
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So I haven't seen many mock traps where Bo Nicks goes as
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high as twelve overall. But Denver needs a quarterback.
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There's other teams who need quarterbacks.
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So he doesn't have Michael Pennix junior going in the first
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round, but he's got Bo Nicks going 12th overall.
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So if that happens, Williams 1, Daniels two, May 3, McCarthy 11
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and Nicks 12, that's going to cash our over 4 1/2 and we're
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going to get a winner there because that adds up to five
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QBs. Now if you have Pennix, that's
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six. Doesn't matter.
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You still you know it. All the matters is covering or
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going over. It doesn't matter how much you
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go over by. But I wanted to mention that
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today because I'm hoping this thing continues to rise.
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So I have my first NFL draft prop bet in pocket.
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I'm going over 4 1/2 quarterbacks at minus.
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We'll take the draft Kings number -175 S Moving on to our
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bets here for today, guys. Let's dive right into college
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basketball. Thank God college hoops is back.
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I missed it last night. But first, but on the board for
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me. Let's go to an early one here.
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This is Wagner and Howard. So this is one of your first
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four matchups here. They're both 16 seeds.
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Whoever wins this one will play one seed, North Carolina.
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So maybe a lamb going to the slaughter here.
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But anyway, game we played in Dayton, OH, now a little
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background here. Wagner is 16 and 15.
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They just beat Merrimack 54 to 47 to won the to win the
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Northeast Conference tournament. The other hand, Howard 18 and
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16. They just beat Delaware State 70
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to 67 to win the MIAC tournament.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, looks like liability is on Howard.
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Now this game open with Howard listed as a three-point neutral
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site favorite and Howard has gotten bet up to -3 1/2.
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Now there are some books that have come back down to three, so
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3 up to 3 1/2 down to three and really never got down to 2 1/2.
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So it's either pretty much stayed the same or moved toward
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Howard tells me liability here is on Howard.
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Now I like to bet against the public here, but I did notice a
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pretty good sharp bet split on Howard.
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They're only getting around 70% of bets, but nearly 80% of the
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money. And really all liability
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movement has been toward Howard here, so I'm looking toward
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Howard in this one. Now, Howard does have a bunch of
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advantages offensively. What's weird about this one is
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Howard's one of the There's something weird where Wagner's
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one of the worst offensive teams.
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Howard's one of the worst defensive teams to make it into
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the tournament, not ever. But, you know, up there, which
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is a weird thing, like Howard's got bad defense, Wagner's got
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bad offense. Anyway, Howard, I'm going to
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bank on their offensive efficiency.
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Tons of advantages. Offensively, better offensive
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efficiency, 192 in the country versus 334 for Wagner.
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Better effective field goal percentage, 52% versus 45%.
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Better offensive rebound percentage, 34% versus 30%.
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Better three-point shooting, big discrepancy here, 38% versus 32%
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and better free throw shooting, 75% versus 71%.
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So you know, again, free throw shooting is so important in
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these tight games with, you know, one bucket here there, one
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possession game, you got to make your free throws.
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So all those advantages are in favor of Howard.
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Now Ken Palm does have Howard winning.
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He's got him winning by two points, He's got him winning
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6664. He does have Howard ranked
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higher, 276 in the country versus 293.
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Now you guys know me at this point or maybe you don't, but
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I'm money line short favorites. I'm not laying -3 or 3 1/2 with
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Howard to win by 1-2 or three. I lose or push my bet.
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I'm going money line here. So shop around.
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I got Howard at -160, I think -165 you can get pretty probably
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a little bit better of a number, maybe a -, 160 now at this
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point. Here's another thing, if you
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look at these first fours, they've been doing this for
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almost 15 years at this point. I think the first year was 2010.
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Favorites in the first four are 29 and 19, straight up 60%.
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So they're winning 60% of the time.
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So all movement liability, it's either stayed the same or moved
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toward Howard. Howard's got a ton of offensive
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advantages. Ken Palm's got Howard winning.
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I'm going to go Howard here in first four play.
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I got Howard on the money line. Let's break it down about -160
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now at this point. Let's go, Howard, Next up for
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you. This one's very interesting to
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me. It's a 7:00 game in the NIT
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Boston College in Providence. Now, this one is interesting for
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a few different reasons. Set the stage here.
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This is the NIT. So they play true home games in
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INIT. So this is going to be at the
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dunk. It's not called the dunk anymore
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in Providence. Used to be Dunkin' Donuts
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Center. Anyway, true home game for
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Providence. Now, this one's interesting for
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a couple reasons. One is the line movement.
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So First off, BCS 19 and 15, remember they had a really good
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showing in the ACC tournament. They went as far as the quarter
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finals and they lost to Virginia 6660.
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Don't remind me, Adam plus 5 1/2, They lost by 6.
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What a joke that was. Anyway, Providence 21 and 13.
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They lost to Marquette 79 to 60 in the Big East tournament
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semifinals. But in terms of the line
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movement, this thing is absolutely plummeted toward
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Boston College. Providence open as high as -6.
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This line is all the way down to -4 -, 3 1/2.
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So right off the bat as soon as I woke up and saw I was looking
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at the overnight number, I saw it early morning and I was like,
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man, what's going on here? So I did a little research
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because you know, typically when you see move like that, it's got
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to be an injury and it is so big injury.
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Here is Devin Carter. He's the best player for
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Providence. He averages 20 points a game,
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Star point guard. He was Big East player of the
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year, I believe, and he also has an injury.
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But he's also going to be held out because he's going to be an
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NFL or NFL draft. See, I got draft, NFL draft on
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the mind. He's going to be the NBA draft,
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probably a first round pick. So with your best player out,
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that's why this line fell toward Boston College.
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With Providence's best player out, there's another forward.
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I don't think he only averages like five points a game, but he
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does play like 20 minutes a game.
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Rich Baron, he's going to be out for this game as well.
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So I'm going to take the points of BCI, got BC at plus 3 1/2.
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You might be able to find a four out there, but I'm going to look
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at not just Providence, the line move and not having their best
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player but also look at this as kind of a motivational edge.
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You got to remember when it comes to teams that thought they
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would make the tournament and didn't.
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It's a big let down to be in the NIT versus A-Team like BC who
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really turned it on late really never had a chance of making the
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tournament unless they won the the ACC.
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But they're playing well and they're playing with house money
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and they're building a program. So it's almost like, you know
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like Ohio State when or a team that thought they'd be like in
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the, you know the College Football Playoff they don't make
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it. Then they play in the, you know
14:06
Toledo Idaho Bowl or I don't know something like that, the
14:09
Barbasol, you know, TaxSlayer Challenge Classic or something
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like that. So from my perspective,
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Providence, I was reading about how they're so disappointed they
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didn't make the tournament. To me they're a team that just
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do they want to play, are they motivated?
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Does this game mean anything to me?
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Your best players already out versus BC who not only are they
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contrarian. I didn't mention that the
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public's still on Providence. 65% of bets are on Providence so
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BC isn't a really good contrarian opportunity here but
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BC fully healthy, everyone's playing, never really had a
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chance for the big dance but they're playing with house money
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and they had a good run in the ACC tournament.
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So BC and also by the way BC hasn't made a post season
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whether it's the Big dance and ITCBI since 2018.
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So that means more to BCBC also has the better offensive
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efficiency, 67th in the country versus 119 for Providence.
15:00
Better three-point shooting, 36% versus 33%, better free throw
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shooting, 75% versus 72%. They take better care of the
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ball. They rank 74th and turnovers
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versus 2O8 for Providence. So again, Providence down their
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best player. The line's falling away from
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them. They got another guy out.
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I don't even think they really care much about this game.
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It means a lot more to BC. I'm taking the points here,
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guys. Give me Boston College plus 3
15:23
1/2 ideally. You can maybe find a four still
15:25
out there then last part of the night for me.
15:28
Colorado State and Virginia big match up here.
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This is the second of the 1st 4. It's a 910 game setting the
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stage here. These are both 10 seeds.
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The winner plays seven seed Texas on a game here.
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Same place will be in Dayton OH at the UD Arena.
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Same place where Wagner Howard will be played earlier in the
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day. Colorado State 24 and 10 just
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had their four-game winning streak come on them.
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They lost to New Mexico 7461 in the Mountain West semis.
15:54
Meanwhile, Virginia, they had their two game-winning streak
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and they lost to NC State 7365 in the ACC Tournament
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semifinals. So what do we see across the
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market here? Well, going with Colorado State,
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good sharp line move in favor of Colorado State.
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The Rams opened -1 1/2 neutral site.
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Now they've been bet up to -2 1/2.
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So that's a big move. One point move obviously in
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their direction here. They did at one point get to -3
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and there's some buyback brought it back down to 2 1/2.
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What's notable to me is that Colorado State is not a huge
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public play. They're only getting 54% of
16:25
spread bets, but nearly 70% of spread dollars.
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So this is kind of like a close to a 5050 line move, Like close
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to 5050 line really shouldn't move at all.
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Yet it did get adjusted toward Colorado State.
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Pretty good bet split, low bets, higher dollars in favor of
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Colorado State. Now Colorado State has the
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better offensive efficiency. We all know Virginia great
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defensively, but they're Colorado State 42nd and
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offensive efficiency versus 194 for Virginia.
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Colorado State better effective field goal percentage, 55%
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versus 49%, better free throw shooting, 75% versus 64% and
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again that's huge, 75% versus 64% from charity stripe.
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That could be very, very important in A1 possession game.
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Now Ken Palm does have Colorado State winning by two.
17:09
So you guys know me and he does have a ranked higher 38th versus
17:12
69th. But in situations like this, I
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want to be with the sharp line move Colorado State -1 1/2 to -2
17:17
1/2. But I also want a money line, a
17:20
short favorite. I don't want to lay 2 1/2 with
17:22
Colorado State. Yes, you can save the juice,
17:24
which is which is nice. But what if you lay 2 1/2, They
17:27
win by one or two, you lose your bet.
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I'd much rather, you know, win a little bit less and still get a
17:31
win versus maybe get a loss if you lay 2 1/2 and they win by
17:35
one or two. So I'm going Colorado State on
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the money line. Got Colorado State at -145 and
17:42
that also match by the way first four games since 2010.
17:46
Favorites 29 and 19 straight up 60%.
17:49
So we got Howard money line. Colorado State money line.
17:52
I got BC. Ideally you can find +4 if not
17:55
plus 3 1/2. Now let's go over to the NHL.
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Got a couple NHL bets for you tonight hopefully last night
18:01
getting that over in the Caps game will give us AI don't know
18:03
start of a winning streak here hopefully.
18:06
But first one I'm going with is a total.
18:07
I'm going to go with the CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets Detroit
18:12
Red Wings over 6 1/2. I'm rooting for some goals in
18:15
this one. Can we get seven or more?
18:16
Can we get a four, three-game or more?
18:19
That would be fine too. But first thing you notice about
18:21
this Blue Jackets Detroit game is a painted juiced up over.
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So that means every book you look at in your live odds page
18:28
all the juices basically similar price pointing in the same
18:32
direction. So every total here is 6 1/2 /,
18:35
-, 115 -, 120. I see a -, 125 out there.
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All movement liability has been toward this over shirt off the
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bat tells us there's liability and you got to pay a more
18:44
expensive price of the over because I mean I don't, I don't
18:47
know if it gets to seven because you get a lot of buyback under 7
18:49
but they're making you pay a higher price for a reason
18:52
because that's probably the side with a sharper action.
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Now I love the bet split to the over only 57% of bets at
18:58
DraftKings but 94% of dollars are on the CBJ Detroit over.
19:03
I'm looking at the goaltenders here.
19:05
Tarasoff for CBJ and James Reimer for Detroit.
19:10
They both have a goals against of around 3.
19:13
Offensively, you look at Detroit, they're averaging 3.4
19:16
goals per game. That's the seventh most goals in
19:19
the NHL. Detroit is also 30 and 30 to the
19:22
over this year, 7th best over team you look at.
19:25
Defensively, CBJ is one of the worst.
19:27
They're allowing 3.6 goals per game.
19:29
That's the third worst in the NHL.
19:31
Detroit's not much better. They're giving up 3.4 goals a
19:34
game. That's the eighth worst in the
19:36
NHL. It's also reading about CBJ.
19:38
They're one of the worst defensive teams in the month of
19:40
March. I'm not going to give you core C
19:43
and high danger and all I I can barely understand them.
19:46
You know you're getting old when like the new Saber metrics,
19:48
baseball, hockey, whatever. Maybe it's like can can we just
19:50
stick with like goals, assists, points, plus, minus, you know,
19:54
baseball, bop, pip and all these?
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I'm like, can you just give me the guys batting average and
19:58
home runs in RB is I'm 36 years old.
20:00
You can tell I'm getting old. But anyway defensive metrics say
20:03
CBJ is one of the worst teams in the month of March.
20:05
So I'm going to go over here. Painted juiced up over great
20:09
bet. Split over 2 goalies.
20:11
Giving up around three goals a game or more.
20:13
Good offense, bad defense. I smell a four to three-game,
20:16
five to two game. I don't know, five to four-game,
20:19
whatever it may be. But let's get as we always love
20:22
a three to three-game that goes to OT.
20:24
You're guaranteed one more goal, but I'm going CBJ Detroit over 6
20:27
1/2 and I got the juice at -120. Next up for you.
20:31
A little bit expensive but really good angle here.
20:35
Rest first tired. I'm going Vancouver Canucks on
20:38
the money line at -195. They're at home against the
20:41
Buffalo Sabres and the first thing that jumped out to me,
20:44
it's not a huge line move. You know like you open Vancouver
20:47
-190 ish. They're up closer to -200 so
20:51
it's not a massive line move. What I like about this is a
20:54
favorite versus back-to-back system match.
20:57
This is a really good angle here.
20:59
I wish I would have been playing it more but if you're if you're
21:01
favored and you're playing a team on the second leg of a
21:04
back-to-back. These teams have gone 124 and 63
21:07
this year 66% with a 5% ROI. So it's not only a rest rest
21:13
tired because Buffalo played last night, Vancouver was off
21:16
but Vancouver hasn't played since the 16th so they've been
21:20
off since what was that Saturday?
21:21
So they're looking at, you know, two days off 3 what?
21:26
Nearly three days between their last game versus Buffalo, who
21:29
got a win last night with their stud goalie Pekka Lukanen.
21:33
Now they're going with their backup.
21:34
That's another thing about betting.
21:35
That's Buffalo not only tired, but they are likely to have
21:39
Devin Levi in goal. He's given up 3.3 goals a game.
21:42
Casey de Smith likely to be there for Vancouver.
21:45
I know Thatcher Demko got hurt. He's been pretty good. 2.87
21:48
goals against better offense for Vancouver, 3.5 goals per game
21:53
versus 3 for Buffalo. Better defense.
21:56
They're giving up 2.7 a game versus 2.9 for Buffalo and
22:01
better power play, 23% versus 17%.
22:04
It's also a bit of a buy low, sell high, because if you look
22:07
at Vancouver, I believe they've lost two straight and this is a
22:09
pretty good team here, so lost two straight regardless of the
22:13
rest. First tired, you want to get
22:14
back on track and win and you got home ice.
22:16
You got last ice change, but you also can add in the fact that
22:20
you've had to sit on that for a while, so you've lost two
22:23
straight and your last game was Saturday.
22:25
You've had to, you know, kind of sit with that, lost that bad
22:27
feeling for so many days here at this point.
22:29
Hopefully that's another motivating factor here, but I'm
22:31
going to take Vancouver on the money line, shop around, try to
22:34
find something sub 200, I'm on Vancouver at -195.
22:39
And remember whether it's a money line in any sport, hockey,
22:42
whether it's college troops, money line, whatever.
22:44
Maybe it's always bet to risk, not bet to win.
22:47
So if you're with me on Vancouver tonight, you're not
22:49
laying 1.95 units to win one unit that would be betting to
22:53
win. You're betting to risk, which
22:54
means you're always just risking your one unit.
22:57
So if Vancouver wins for us tonight, hopefully they will.
23:00
We're going to get a little more than 1/2 unit back again.
23:03
May not seem that great. We got to remember if they lose,
23:06
we only want to lose 1 unit. We don't want to lose 1.95.
23:09
That's when you get in trouble. But I bet Trispers bet to and
23:11
always. I'm going Vancouver -195 and CBJ
23:15
over 6 1/2 against Detroit. Now to finish up the pod we have
23:20
the rhythm. I got to get a sound effect for
23:23
this one, the rhythm player prop of the day.
23:26
So if you guys don't know, rhythm is awesome.
23:29
I've teamed up with rhythm. They powered this pod.
23:31
I love them because they are all about data and they are AI.
23:35
So they have these, these AI backed data-driven models.
23:39
Put your bias at the door. Look, what are the metrics
23:41
saying? What I really like about Rhythm
23:43
also is that they are powered by a bunch a bunch of mathematical
23:47
quants, data scientists and machine learning engineers who
23:50
went to MIT. So these are these are goodwill
23:52
huntings here coming up with our models here.
23:55
They are not just props but also pics for game pics as well and I
23:59
would highly recommend giving rhythm a shot for a 7 day free
24:02
trial. If you want to give it a shot,
24:04
use the link that is pinned at the top of my Twitter page at
24:09
Josh under Score Insights or pinned at the top of the All
24:11
Systems Go Twitter page at under score ASG under score Podcast.
24:16
Make sure you use that link, that custom link, so that they
24:18
know that I refer to you. But anyway, for our player prop
24:22
of the day, for the rhythm player prop of the day, we're
24:26
going with Miles Bridges. Miles Bridges on a very bad
24:30
team, the Charlotte Hornets. By the way, the Hornets are a
24:34
what, 13 point dog against the magic.
24:36
Tonight we're going to focus on Miles Bridges in terms of a
24:39
combo, rebounds and assists. Miles Bridges rebounds and
24:44
assists over 10 1/2. Now it's juiced up over -125.
24:48
I actually like juiced up over or just juiced player props
24:52
could be under or over. But a minus number, -120, you
24:55
know, -130, whatever it may be. On the one hand, yes, you got to
24:58
pay that price. But also tells me that's where
25:00
the liability is. So I'm not a lot of people are
25:02
like minus, oh, give me a plus. But you know, plus is more of a
25:05
dog player, prop, favorite, you know, that sort of thing.
25:08
But Miles Bridges over 10, 1/2 rebounds and assists.
25:11
Now Rhythm is projecting Miles Bridges to have 14.4 rebounds
25:16
and assists tonight. So that would make for a 53% DTM
25:20
difference to market. It's an 85% win probability.
25:23
I was digging into Miles Bridges stats here.
25:26
He's going over this number 10 1/2 rebounds and assists in four
25:29
of his last five games. He's gone over an eight of his
25:31
last 10 games. He's averaging 9 rebounds and
25:35
four assists in the month of month of March, so 13 there is
25:40
what he's averaging. He's also rested.
25:42
They haven't played since the 16th on Saturday, so that's a
25:44
good thing. But also like about if you're
25:46
going to take a guy to his over, I want a player who you can kind
25:49
of count on, you know, playing a lot, you know, in terms of
25:52
minutes per game because you want to make sure that he's out
25:54
there long enough to hopefully accrue these stats.
25:57
And if you look at Bridges, he's one of the team leaders in
25:59
minutes per game. He's averaging 39 minutes per
26:02
game, so he's he's nearly playing the entire game here.
26:05
So for the rhythm player prop of the day, we're going Miles
26:08
Bridges over 10 1/2 combined rebounds and assists at -125
26:13
Juice. So that about does it for
26:16
today's All Systems Go Pod Episode 4.
26:21
Reminder, if you enjoy the pod, if you are brand new to the pod,
26:25
if you want to support the pod because the pod is like a baby
26:27
right now. It's just been born.
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It's like a little little seed that just sprouted over the
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ground. If you want to get kind of some,
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some, I don't know some some spring themes here, but we just
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sprouted, we were just born and we need some support.
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We need you to boost us up. So if you enjoy listening to
26:44
this pod, if you want to support the pod, if you want to help us
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get off the ground. And I have a couple of of things
26:50
I ask of you. One, can you go and give it a
26:54
like or five stars on whatever platform you listen to the pod
26:57
on? I would prefer Spotify because
26:59
Spotify have been doing research.
27:00
That's the most listened to platform I would mention.
27:02
I am. I'm learning about an RSS feed.
27:05
I'm learning all these things that I never knew before because
27:07
I didn't have to, because I had engineers and producers who used
27:10
to do this for me. But now I got to do it on my own
27:11
because I'm going solo. But I'm learning about RSS feeds
27:15
in terms of making this pot available on all platforms.
27:17
So we are obviously on Spotify, we're on iTunes, but I just
27:22
added an RSS feed for iheart and there's another one that I
27:27
forgot, Amazon. So basically at one, at some
27:31
point we're getting very close. This is going to be on every
27:33
platform, but whatever platform you listen to give this pod five
27:36
stars. That would really mean a lot to
27:38
me guys. Also give a like or a follow to
27:41
our Twitter page. You can follow us at You can
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follow me at Josh under score Insights.
27:46
You can follow the pod at under score ASG under score Podcast.
27:51
Also sign up for that rhythm free trial.
27:53
Just click that link at the top of the pin, top of the Twitter
27:57
profile for my account and for the ASG Pod account.
28:00
And lastly, if you want to support myself and you enjoy
28:04
these breakdowns and this approach to data-driven betting
28:07
and you maybe learn a thing or two and you want to learn more
28:09
than guess what? You can go do one thing in
28:12
particular to make me very happy.
28:13
Go buy my book, go to Amazon.com, type in the
28:16
Everything Guide to Sports betting.
28:18
That's my baby. I put all I learned into that
28:20
into that book. It's got everything I learned in
28:22
terms of how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read
28:25
line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place to
28:28
bet in person or online, how to go contrarian.
28:30
March Madness tips. Baseball, guys, baseball starts
28:33
tomorrow. Did you know that?
28:34
I was like, jeez, I can't believe it's back, but I think
28:36
it's going to be played in Seoul glass now against Darvish
28:40
tomorrow, I believe 6:00 AM And I think Dodgers like a -, 190
28:43
favorite. So don't worry, we'll talk a lot
28:45
of baseball. But if you want to get ready for
28:47
baseball, my book has a chapter on how to bet MLB as well.
28:49
But buy my book. And if you want to give it a
28:51
five star review, that would mean a lot as well.
28:54
But that about does it. Guys, another pod here in the
28:56
books, my parting words as always, stay sharp, stay
28:59
contrarian, Bet against the public, Place yourself on the
29:02
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
29:04
never against it. Will smart money one every time?
29:06
Of course not. But always remember we are
29:08
playing a long game if we can, consistently, even though we
29:10
lost. For example that over last night
29:12
we got 223 1/2 at close 225 1/2 We lost our bet, we did our part
29:17
and we can consistently beat the closing line.
29:19
That's going to be, that's going to make sure we're going to be a
29:21
long term winner. But we can find that sweet spot
29:23
against the public with the house, with the pros.
29:25
Flat bet, avoid parlays. Get that CLV.
29:28
Guess what? We're going to be successful
29:29
sports bettors, so enjoy the sweats, everyone.
29:32
The madness begins tonight. Tomorrow we'll be talking more,
29:36
more madness. There's two more playing games
29:38
and we got, of course, a lot of NIT as well.
29:41
And then it all really starts on Thursday.
29:43
I can't wait for that. But enjoy the sweats.
29:45
Everyone. Have a great Tuesday night.
29:48
I'll be back at it tomorrow for episode five of the All Systems
29:51
Go Sports Betting Podcast Powered by rhythm.
29:54
Have a great night, guys.