Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets for NFL Week 4

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Best Bets for NFL Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: It is Thursday. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer
0:17
Speaker 1: of the Action Network. This is the day where me
0:20
Speaker 1: and my companion, my compadre might BFF, Simon Hunter Professional
0:24
Speaker 1: better go through the games that we pinpointed on Tuesday
0:29
Speaker 1: from the NFL slate. When we narrowed it down and
0:33
Speaker 1: we start to really hone in on what the five
0:36
Speaker 1: games we love for NFL Week four are going to be.
0:42
Speaker 1: We are thinking about how lines have moved, We are
0:44
Speaker 1: thinking about the what the market is telling us. We
0:47
Speaker 1: are thinking about injuries. We are reevaluating if anything has
0:52
Speaker 1: made us change our mind. We are going to get
0:55
Speaker 1: to all of that. We're going to get to survivor picks.
0:58
Speaker 1: We're going to get to money line parlays. Reminder, I
1:02
Speaker 1: will record my podcast with Colin cowherd uh later today.
1:06
Speaker 1: He will give me his picks. I will give him
1:08
Speaker 1: my reaction based on what Simon and I are discussing.
1:11
Speaker 1: Another reminder, convince me Sunday mornings at Action Network HQ,
1:16
Speaker 1: the fastest growing NFL pregame show in the world. You're
1:22
Speaker 1: not gonna get fluff. You're not gonna get Hall of
1:24
Speaker 1: famers talking about what they think about games and how
1:27
Speaker 1: they felt. And you're not gonna get fluffy features. You're
1:30
Speaker 1: gonna get me Simon, Chris Raybon, Sean Kerner talking about
1:34
Speaker 1: the size that totals the props that we love. That's it.
1:37
Speaker 1: It's stuff that moves the needle for you. Before we
1:40
Speaker 1: get to the podcast, one more thing I want to say.
1:43
Speaker 1: We are getting a lot of new listeners, and as
1:45
Speaker 1: I've said the past few weeks, when the show starts.
1:48
Speaker 1: Action Network we launched in January of eighteen. We are
1:53
Speaker 1: a company completely focused on providing sports betting news, information analysis.
1:59
Speaker 1: We have an app that goes deep with research and data.
2:01
Speaker 1: You can track your picks, you can follow games in
2:03
Speaker 1: real time, see how your bets are doing. We're getting
2:06
Speaker 1: a lot of new listeners, like I said, and a
2:08
Speaker 1: lot of people who are just discovering betting right and
2:10
Speaker 1: so Simon and I we love the questions. We're getting
2:13
Speaker 1: so many questions about what about this phrase? How do
2:16
Speaker 1: I bet on this game? What is the model for
2:18
Speaker 1: something like this? I'm new to betting. We try to
2:21
Speaker 1: answer as many as we can. We are getting flooded
2:23
Speaker 1: and Like I said, we freaking love it. Keep them coming.
2:26
Speaker 1: We're going to keep answering as much as we can.
2:29
Speaker 1: If you are new to betting, Action Network dot Com,
2:32
Speaker 1: go to our how to bet page. There will be
2:36
Speaker 1: a link in the episode description of this podcast. Matt Mitchell,
2:39
Speaker 1: the producer, is going to put it in there. Go
2:42
Speaker 1: to Action network dot Com. All the resources you need,
2:44
Speaker 1: everything about educating you to to bet make smart decisions
2:48
Speaker 1: is at Action network dot Com. Check it out. We're
2:50
Speaker 1: also going to try to layer in some betting one
2:53
Speaker 1: O one stuff that isn't too obtrusive, because this is
2:55
Speaker 1: still a relatively hardcore betting pod cast, probably the best
3:01
Speaker 1: betting podcast, smartest betting podcast, most influential betting podcast in
3:05
Speaker 1: the known sports world. It's a lot to get through. Simon.
3:09
Speaker 1: Let's say, your brother, you're such a professional chat especially
3:12
Speaker 1: this week where you are rooting for a team that's
3:14
Speaker 1: three quarterbacks. Uh Man, constant pro. You are consonant. That's
3:20
Speaker 1: what I try to do. We're gonna get to that game.
3:22
Speaker 1: I know we're gonna talk about the Bears and the lies.
3:24
Speaker 1: The Bears at minus two and a half, that's going
3:26
Speaker 1: to be ugly. One of the things. That's really fascinating,
3:30
Speaker 1: Simon is you are a professional better You lived in
3:33
Speaker 1: Vegas forever. When benning became legal, you moved to Jersey. Um,
3:38
Speaker 1: you are connected at world. Your professional betting colleagues love
3:45
Speaker 1: to call you after the Tuesday podcast and say, I
3:49
Speaker 1: agree with you on this take. I don't agree with
3:51
Speaker 1: you on this take. You're crazy. Sometimes it gets in
3:53
Speaker 1: your head and makes you rethink things, and then you
3:56
Speaker 1: influences what we do on Thursday. And then on Sunday
3:59
Speaker 1: we got a new segment. I want to know sharp
4:01
Speaker 1: calls it's Simon Hunter has gotten since Tuesday. Hello, who's there?
4:09
Speaker 1: I'm talking. Usually these people call him up and they'll say, hey,
4:18
Speaker 1: you're really missing here big on certain games. It's a
4:22
Speaker 1: lot of agreement this week. I think a lot of
4:24
Speaker 1: the guys love our picks this week. They love the Vikings. Um.
4:27
Speaker 1: I had multiple guys reach out to me about that.
4:29
Speaker 1: They love the Vikings, they love that number. And I
4:31
Speaker 1: had a bunch of people reach out about the Jets.
4:33
Speaker 1: The Jets might be the sharp trap of the week.
4:35
Speaker 1: I think everyone's coming in on them so heavy, just
4:37
Speaker 1: because the news has come out now that Julio and
4:40
Speaker 1: a j Brown might not be playing because they both
4:42
Speaker 1: have hamstring injuries, which again that greatly greatly benefits the
4:47
Speaker 1: Jets team that now they don't only have to focus
4:49
Speaker 1: on Derrick Henry. So like I think last week, the
4:52
Speaker 1: most hate I got was just about our Buffalo pick.
4:54
Speaker 1: A lot of professionals felt very strong and taking that
4:57
Speaker 1: seven and a half, the eight and a half number
4:59
Speaker 1: with Washington, and I just couldn't do it. We luckily
5:02
Speaker 1: stayed away altogether from that game, and I turned out
5:04
Speaker 1: I was right. But what about Seattle? So that was
5:08
Speaker 1: my only hate. I really got pushed back from other professionals.
5:12
Speaker 1: I think they're just really down the Seahawks. They think
5:14
Speaker 1: this team is major, major issues where I just don't
5:16
Speaker 1: see it that way. I think they you know, they
5:18
Speaker 1: laid an egg against Tennessee, letting them come back when
5:20
Speaker 1: they're up fifteen and the fourth quarter at home, and
5:22
Speaker 1: then Minnesota was a scheduled loss. We talked about that.
5:25
Speaker 1: There was no no world Zimmer is gonna lose three
5:27
Speaker 1: straight games in his first game at home. So I
5:30
Speaker 1: love the Seahawks. I love the Seahawks plus three, I'm
5:32
Speaker 1: on their money line as well. It just have some pause, people,
5:36
Speaker 1: This is gonna be probably one of the chalkiest dogs
5:37
Speaker 1: of the week. Them and the Lines are the two
5:39
Speaker 1: biggest chalky dogs. The Seahawks are of the bets on
5:44
Speaker 1: Seattle right now. By the Way, Lions, some of the
5:49
Speaker 1: tickets to on the Seahawks money line so chee as
5:54
Speaker 1: they say in the Great Lakes, Oh geez, Like that's
5:58
Speaker 1: what the Eagles were on Monday Night there, I think
5:59
Speaker 1: the eighty five or eighty cent percent of the money
6:01
Speaker 1: line bets, and we saw what happened there. Last week
6:04
Speaker 1: was a really chalky week, Like we talked about that already.
6:07
Speaker 1: A lot of the parlays, a lot of the teasers,
6:09
Speaker 1: everything kind of hit. So I'm expecting a really, really weird,
6:13
Speaker 1: wacky week. This stuck homing a week even though my
6:16
Speaker 1: favorite teaser, I mean, it's the chalkiest teaser I'll do
6:18
Speaker 1: all year, the Chiefs and the Buccaneers, but I just
6:21
Speaker 1: can't see either of these teams losing their games. So
6:24
Speaker 1: I've had a couple of people hit me up, not
6:26
Speaker 1: my professionals, with people on Twitter saying all my friends
6:29
Speaker 1: are betting the same thing. Even though I don't listen
6:31
Speaker 1: to the show. Or whatever they're saying, and I just
6:32
Speaker 1: said to them, I'm with them. It's it's chalky. But
6:36
Speaker 1: in what world does Brady lose this game against the
6:38
Speaker 1: Buccaneers And in what world does Andy Reid lose to
6:41
Speaker 1: his formal team and lose three in a row. I
6:44
Speaker 1: just it's kind of like a perfect storm. These things
6:47
Speaker 1: set up so nicely, where if the Chiefs were at
6:50
Speaker 1: home against the Eagles, this line would probably be ten
6:52
Speaker 1: or eleven. If the Buccaneers were home against the Patriots,
6:55
Speaker 1: this line will probably be again tenor eleven. But it's
6:57
Speaker 1: not they're at there on the roads. You're getting a
6:59
Speaker 1: really discount on these lines. So I'm I'm all in
7:03
Speaker 1: on these Chalky all these Chalky teasers. This week chat, Well,
7:07
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to some money line parlays as well.
7:10
Speaker 1: Probably one of those pairings will be the Jets and
7:14
Speaker 1: the Vikings. There are some pretty wicked money lines to
7:17
Speaker 1: look at, and we're gonna get to it. I just
7:19
Speaker 1: got a little distracted, I gotta say, because my fucking
7:22
Speaker 1: kid is a month into college, as you know, at Drexel.
7:27
Speaker 1: My wife and I texted him two days ago and said, hey,
7:30
Speaker 1: let's jump on the phone. It's been a few days
7:32
Speaker 1: since we spoke, didn't respond for forty eight hours. My
7:35
Speaker 1: wife is like, what the funk is up with this kid?
7:38
Speaker 1: We know he's alive, and because we're tracking him, I'm like,
7:41
Speaker 1: where are you apps in you know, and our phones.
7:45
Speaker 1: He just texted us and said I may be free
7:48
Speaker 1: on Sunday. A child right, Just the other day he
7:53
Speaker 1: came to the world and you you will wait. But
7:55
Speaker 1: they were claims to catch and bills to pay. He
7:59
Speaker 1: learned to well. It was the way, and he was
8:02
Speaker 1: talking for a new and as it grew he'd say,
8:05
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be like you then, you know what, I'm
8:08
Speaker 1: gonna be like you and the cats. What the funk, dude,
8:16
Speaker 1: you're telling me you can't find time for five days
8:20
Speaker 1: to talk to your parents. You know, a little taste
8:23
Speaker 1: of freedom. Now they're a big time. This experimentum going
8:27
Speaker 1: to college, of letting these children leave has gone completely
8:31
Speaker 1: off the rails. I can't fucking believe this. My wife
8:35
Speaker 1: was like so exciting, literally already gave it a heart emoji, like,
8:39
Speaker 1: all right, we'll talk to you Sunday. And I didn't
8:42
Speaker 1: want to respond while you and I are talking because
8:43
Speaker 1: I want to concentrate on what you're saying. What I
8:45
Speaker 1: want to say is, are you kidding me? Sunday? You'll
8:49
Speaker 1: call us right now? Yeah, that's that's an unreal response.
8:53
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, these fucking kids. All right, let's get to it.
8:57
Speaker 1: We got a whole bunch of games that we squared
9:01
Speaker 1: that we were gonna want to carry over from the weekend.
9:03
Speaker 1: Some of them from from from Tuesday. Some of them
9:07
Speaker 1: still look really good. Some of them are looking better
9:09
Speaker 1: than I thought they did before. Let's start with the
9:11
Speaker 1: Giants plus seven and a half versus the Saints. You
9:14
Speaker 1: and I immediately pinpointed this game. On Tuesday. Stuckey and
9:19
Speaker 1: Chris Raybun and the Action Network podcast UH went through
9:22
Speaker 1: this game. They loved this game as well, and actually
9:25
Speaker 1: they loved it for a lot of the reasons that
9:28
Speaker 1: you often love it, which was less about the system
9:31
Speaker 1: plays that sometimes people look at and say, all right,
9:35
Speaker 1: this team is so and so against the spread the
9:37
Speaker 1: last eighteen years, but really about what they're seeing on
9:41
Speaker 1: the field, specifically about the Saints. I am more convinced
9:45
Speaker 1: ever that the Giants are the right side at plus
9:47
Speaker 1: seven and a half. It's and that's the scary part.
9:51
Speaker 1: A lot of books have dropped down to seven. We
9:52
Speaker 1: we want that seven and a half. We we need
9:54
Speaker 1: that hook there. Um, it's an interesting game. A lot
9:59
Speaker 1: of people who also reach out to me about this
10:00
Speaker 1: game about should we do this for our survivor pick
10:03
Speaker 1: and just get the Saints out of the way. Um
10:06
Speaker 1: that yeah, that's how I found I felt a little
10:08
Speaker 1: scared of this one. Um, I don't know if I
10:11
Speaker 1: would do the Saints, just in the fact that Winston
10:14
Speaker 1: is begging, begging to have him meltdown games. So a
10:18
Speaker 1: little scary with this Giant defense, a couple of injuries
10:21
Speaker 1: to that side of the ball. But we talked about it. Um,
10:24
Speaker 1: the Giants just match up well with the Saints team.
10:26
Speaker 1: Danny dimes, he just plays better on the road indoors
10:31
Speaker 1: with Kwan. This is just a good matchup for this
10:34
Speaker 1: Giants team. So if it's seven and a half is
10:37
Speaker 1: our best five, I would take it, But at seven
10:40
Speaker 1: it likely wouldn't make the cut for me. What about
10:44
Speaker 1: seven just as a bet? Yeah, yeah, I would bet
10:48
Speaker 1: at seven, even though again you've missed the best of number.
10:51
Speaker 1: This thing open at nine and a half. Now it's
10:52
Speaker 1: all the way down to seven the professionals coming. Have
10:55
Speaker 1: you on it, because I'm not sure what the splits
10:56
Speaker 1: are in action, but I saw yesterday I think it
10:59
Speaker 1: was seventy seven per cent to the ticket split, so
11:03
Speaker 1: or maybe that was the money split. So but definitely,
11:06
Speaker 1: the Saints are a very public team, and the lines
11:08
Speaker 1: moved against it. Where the money is coming in on
11:10
Speaker 1: the Saints and the tickets are coming on the Saints
11:13
Speaker 1: and the line's going against it, always scary if you're
11:15
Speaker 1: a Saints backer. So that's giving me a little bit
11:18
Speaker 1: more confidence with the Giants, knowing that a lot of
11:19
Speaker 1: sharp money is coming in on the Giants. Yeah, it's
11:21
Speaker 1: fifty pc. I'm glad you brought it up. Good good connection.
11:25
Speaker 1: Way to way to pin the bets on the Saints.
11:30
Speaker 1: Seventy percent of the money on the Giants. So it
11:34
Speaker 1: is definitely a pros Joe's game. What's fascinating to me is,
11:39
Speaker 1: you know, the Saints they beat up on the Packers.
11:44
Speaker 1: We didn't really know what that was going to be.
11:45
Speaker 1: That could have been an anomaly whatever, you know, and
11:49
Speaker 1: then their game against New England was not impressive. Jamis
11:53
Speaker 1: had a heave home blind. I'm going to throw it up,
11:57
Speaker 1: got lucky touchdown, they got a pick six, Um, they
12:01
Speaker 1: were outgained. This is a team that I think is
12:04
Speaker 1: in trouble and not not in trouble. That's that's overstating it.
12:08
Speaker 1: But it is a team that I think is as
12:12
Speaker 1: good as their record reflects and his public perception reflects.
12:16
Speaker 1: So yes, I agree with you. The Giants or will
12:20
Speaker 1: continue to be one of the teams we look at. Um,
12:24
Speaker 1: I think they're going to have to end up being
12:26
Speaker 1: in a money line parlay with somebody. Um, that's why
12:30
Speaker 1: I wouldn't take the Saints in his Survivor I got,
12:32
Speaker 1: I got a pretty good beat, and who I want
12:34
Speaker 1: our survivor team to be. Yeah, okay, we can talk
12:38
Speaker 1: about that at the end. All right, here's an ugly
12:42
Speaker 1: one and you just mentioned it. Eagles plus seven and
12:47
Speaker 1: a half against the Chiefs. The Chiefs like, let me
12:49
Speaker 1: just let me just set it up, let me set
12:51
Speaker 1: it up. Okay, you talk a little bit about the
12:55
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the teaser potential. They continue to not cover,
13:01
Speaker 1: they continue to be overvalued, they continue to be a
13:04
Speaker 1: team that is going to get public money. More so
13:08
Speaker 1: this week when you're talking about an Eagles team that
13:13
Speaker 1: just got decimated by the Cowboys on Monday night. But
13:18
Speaker 1: I don't want to take the Eagles here. I get it,
13:22
Speaker 1: But as anyone listen to this, you have to take
13:24
Speaker 1: if you have seven a half and your pickpools or whatever,
13:26
Speaker 1: you have to take the Eagles. This is everything about
13:30
Speaker 1: This is why we fade the Chiefs. They always get
13:33
Speaker 1: back door. This is a typical backdoor game. They don't
13:36
Speaker 1: have their run game to melt the clock away. Mahomes
13:38
Speaker 1: is gonna be taking deep shots all night. So again,
13:41
Speaker 1: if if this game is you know the Chiefs are
13:44
Speaker 1: up twenty four to ten or one to ten, I
13:47
Speaker 1: honestly will feel comfortable when her It has the ball.
13:49
Speaker 1: I thinking I'll be able to get a back door.
13:51
Speaker 1: But well, this in our contest, maybe maybe we'll take
13:53
Speaker 1: the week off because, like you just said, holy hell,
13:57
Speaker 1: are the Chiefs overdue to cover a game one and
13:59
Speaker 1: eleven eight? Yes, their last twelve they are so overdue.
14:02
Speaker 1: So I've made all my money on fading them, especially
14:05
Speaker 1: early on the season. I'm cool with taking a week
14:08
Speaker 1: off in our contest and not going against them. So
14:10
Speaker 1: I will be on the Eagles, but I will not
14:11
Speaker 1: be Uh, I will not be putting this in our contest.
14:14
Speaker 1: It's an interesting question about when when do the the
14:22
Speaker 1: sort of patterns start to be things that you fade
14:27
Speaker 1: versus things that you bank on. Last this year, I
14:32
Speaker 1: read this. Brandon Anderson, one of the writers at Action,
14:35
Speaker 1: does an amazing story every week. I love it to
14:38
Speaker 1: become invalid, like I must read for me. It's sort
14:41
Speaker 1: of his leans or bets for every single game. Sometimes
14:48
Speaker 1: it's a pass, sometimes it's a it's a bet. Sometimes
14:51
Speaker 1: it's a wait until the number moves, which the market
14:53
Speaker 1: is showing it may. He made a note at the
14:57
Speaker 1: top of the columns week that, uh, sure underdogs are
15:03
Speaker 1: eleven of three or more so three or less are
15:06
Speaker 1: eleven and five against the spread this year, and they've
15:09
Speaker 1: one outright in all eleven games. So like the Chiefs
15:13
Speaker 1: not covering. Ever, like short underdogs continuing to cover and win,
15:18
Speaker 1: when do we start fading patterns like that? M I
15:22
Speaker 1: mean I I again, that's because the line movement like
15:26
Speaker 1: UM last week and we're on the Saints. The Saints
15:30
Speaker 1: got beat down from three and a half to two
15:31
Speaker 1: and a half, so they fit that description. UM. The
15:34
Speaker 1: Vikings fit that description. Last week the Rams do. So yeah,
15:38
Speaker 1: it's it's all dependent on the game. Um, for this game,
15:42
Speaker 1: I wouldn't put too much into that. Again, we're gonna
15:45
Speaker 1: talk about coming up. That's more of like the Tennessee
15:48
Speaker 1: Jets thing where I'm looking at where this line's moved
15:50
Speaker 1: so much that this team is so overvalued. Um, you're
15:53
Speaker 1: getting good value on the Jets. Where the Eagles, this
15:56
Speaker 1: line feels fair. Syrianny might be an awful head coach
16:00
Speaker 1: and Jalen Hurts might be a bad quarterback, so the
16:03
Speaker 1: movement on this line feels very fair to this Eagles team,
16:06
Speaker 1: where this is a must win, a must win for
16:09
Speaker 1: a Chiefs team that I've been to three straight or
16:11
Speaker 1: two straight Super Bowl. So it's Um, it's not so
16:15
Speaker 1: much I'm fading the trend like I am betting the Eagles,
16:18
Speaker 1: But like we talked about, I have a lot of
16:20
Speaker 1: money invest in the Chiefs and the money line and teasers,
16:23
Speaker 1: so I'm I'm a big believer that Chiefs gotta win
16:25
Speaker 1: this this Sunday, all Right, Panthers plus four and a
16:28
Speaker 1: half against the Cowboys. This was our Simon says, bet
16:33
Speaker 1: like the Bengals the week before on Tuesday, you. Simon
16:37
Speaker 1: says this, which means that we must bet it. I
16:41
Speaker 1: did bet it at four and a half. I also
16:44
Speaker 1: bet a little bit of a taste half a unit
16:47
Speaker 1: on the Panther's money line. Um, the Panthers secondary is decimated,
16:53
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey isn't playing on the field. That makes me nervous.
16:59
Speaker 1: As a system M I feel great about it. I
17:02
Speaker 1: think I think I looked it up in bet Labs,
17:06
Speaker 1: which is like the superpowered database that Action Network has
17:13
Speaker 1: that has data points for millions and millions of betting
17:17
Speaker 1: data points going back to two thousand and three, underdogs
17:22
Speaker 1: and underdogs against the team that just played in Monday
17:26
Speaker 1: Night Football. We at clip since two thousand three. So
17:33
Speaker 1: like the precedent and the side feel right for Caroline.
17:36
Speaker 1: I'm a little worried about our pick though. Yeah. Um again,
17:41
Speaker 1: Chad to talk about bet Labs, that's one of my
17:43
Speaker 1: favorite like companies that Action bought and own and give
17:47
Speaker 1: out data from. So it's worth if you buy the
17:50
Speaker 1: subscription to Action Network, you get bet Labs, which again
17:54
Speaker 1: I think it's worth the money. It's it's just such
17:56
Speaker 1: a useful tool, especially if you're into trends. UM I
17:59
Speaker 1: love it. This one is interesting. Where we talked about
18:02
Speaker 1: four and a half, I'm seeing it down to three
18:03
Speaker 1: and a half of a lot of books. Um, I
18:05
Speaker 1: know it's still plus four fandel, which is a great,
18:07
Speaker 1: great value to pro pro game. You you you fade
18:11
Speaker 1: the Cowboys off a big primetime win, a prime time blowout,
18:14
Speaker 1: which is even more. Um, I mean just look at
18:17
Speaker 1: the splits here. I think it's about seventy. The money
18:20
Speaker 1: is on right now on the We're sorry tickets is
18:24
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. It's just gonna be a public game.
18:27
Speaker 1: The public is gonna be feeling good. They want a
18:29
Speaker 1: lot of money on the Cowboys. Last week, We're gonna
18:31
Speaker 1: come and heavy on them again, Carolina, Like you just said,
18:34
Speaker 1: they have a lot of injuries. Um, they actually just
18:36
Speaker 1: made a trade for a cornerback from the Jaguar. So
18:40
Speaker 1: you know, I uh, I just love this number and
18:44
Speaker 1: I love the under in this game because it just
18:46
Speaker 1: feels like both these defenses are a little underrated. And
18:50
Speaker 1: again I think Doc is playing great, playing out of
18:54
Speaker 1: his mind. That old line does have some major issues.
18:57
Speaker 1: And when we saw that sack in the end zone
18:58
Speaker 1: last week, um, they obviously bounced back from because Eagles
19:02
Speaker 1: really clear your pressure the rest of the game. But
19:04
Speaker 1: that's Carolina d line, and you know secondary is much
19:07
Speaker 1: better than the Eagles. So I just think this is
19:09
Speaker 1: a great value and bounce back spot for anyone that
19:12
Speaker 1: wants to favor the Cowboys because Cowboys are good, but
19:16
Speaker 1: against a team right now that's undefeated, this just feels
19:19
Speaker 1: like a lot of points for the Cowboys to be
19:20
Speaker 1: favored by. So we'll take that hook with the three
19:23
Speaker 1: and a half four. Yeah, I think that the other
19:26
Speaker 1: things that go in the Panther's favorite they're very well coached.
19:29
Speaker 1: They are a better coach team than the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy,
19:33
Speaker 1: you can put this team, give make this an eleven
19:36
Speaker 1: twelve win team this year. You're still not going to
19:39
Speaker 1: convince me. He's a very good coach. Um. And you
19:43
Speaker 1: said it about the Panthers defense. A couple of things
19:45
Speaker 1: that I looked up myself because Thursday mornings are my
19:48
Speaker 1: big pod prep day. Carolina Panthers fewest rushing yards per
19:56
Speaker 1: carry allowed, fourth fewest passing your it's pretem allowed. What
20:01
Speaker 1: that tells me is that they are putting teams in
20:06
Speaker 1: second and long, third and long scenarios, which keeps them
20:11
Speaker 1: in games, gets them possessions, ah and puts them in
20:16
Speaker 1: sort of an advantageous positions. Now they and they play
20:21
Speaker 1: a unique style of defense where the guy brought the
20:24
Speaker 1: college scheme up to the NFL that's not really used
20:26
Speaker 1: by many DC coordinators and it's pretty much like a
20:31
Speaker 1: a wide three front, but it's not. And it's just
20:34
Speaker 1: one of these where they they kind of maga, looks
20:36
Speaker 1: like there's big holes are run through and then they
20:38
Speaker 1: just eat it up with their fast linebackers. So I
20:40
Speaker 1: think it'll be a long day for the running backs
20:42
Speaker 1: of the Cowboys. I think we love the Panthers and
20:46
Speaker 1: the Giants right now. Yeah, I mean it's it's it's
20:50
Speaker 1: a hypercentage. I'm at both their money lines and a
20:52
Speaker 1: round robin. Yeah, all right, the Vikings on Tuesday. This
20:59
Speaker 1: is a big move on Tuesday. This game was a
21:01
Speaker 1: two and a half. You mentioned off the top, a
21:04
Speaker 1: lot of wise guys calling you right now about this game.
21:09
Speaker 1: The line has moved. Uh, let's see maybe a point.
21:16
Speaker 1: Maybe it's gone down in one and a half in
21:18
Speaker 1: some places. Um, why do people like the Vikings so
21:23
Speaker 1: much here? I think a lot of people just think
21:26
Speaker 1: the Bears are overvalued. I mean, not the Bears. The
21:28
Speaker 1: Cleveland's are revalued now that they beat the Bears in
21:30
Speaker 1: Houston and back to back weeks at home. And the
21:33
Speaker 1: Vikings have just had a really tough schedule to start
21:35
Speaker 1: the year. I mean, they literally played in Cincinnati, and
21:39
Speaker 1: you know, we can say what we want about that game.
21:41
Speaker 1: They didn't really wake up till the fourth quarter, and
21:43
Speaker 1: they came away back to force overtime, lost on the
21:46
Speaker 1: last play on a missfield goal against the Cardinals, and
21:49
Speaker 1: they came home they just beat up, you know, the Seahawks,
21:52
Speaker 1: And you know, I I do like this Cleveland team
21:56
Speaker 1: for sure. We talked about how we we really thought
21:58
Speaker 1: their defense has improved, but man, when they played Houston,
22:02
Speaker 1: Houston was running the ball all over Cleveland. I mean
22:05
Speaker 1: they were literally dominated on Houston. So we gotta even
22:08
Speaker 1: better run skiing team here in Minnesota with better talent.
22:11
Speaker 1: I believe Dalvin cooked me back for this game as well.
22:14
Speaker 1: Cleveland's now out their top cornerback and they're playing against
22:17
Speaker 1: Adam Feeland and Jefferson. I told people on Tuesday, you
22:21
Speaker 1: put Vikings in every teaser and you're gonna have a
22:23
Speaker 1: bet the snumber. So this is a one of the
22:25
Speaker 1: few I guarantee will be one of our five. Well, well,
22:28
Speaker 1: we're guaranteed right now three games or guaranteeing the Giants,
22:33
Speaker 1: the Panthers, and the Vikings. Well, the Giants on guarantee
22:35
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I don't know if it
22:37
Speaker 1: is yet, but at seven I wouldn't wouldn't lock that
22:39
Speaker 1: one in. Alright, all right, all right, by the way,
22:44
Speaker 1: on the other communication happening right now, um, my wife
22:49
Speaker 1: is just completely uh gone mush on my kid. She
22:54
Speaker 1: just asked him if he was happy, if he was
22:58
Speaker 1: still happy. He said yea. She said, does that mean
23:01
Speaker 1: you don't want to come home and snuggle us? He
23:03
Speaker 1: just wrote back, I don't think so. So she's giving
23:07
Speaker 1: up all authority and all power in this negotiation. And
23:10
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to come in after this podcast and
23:13
Speaker 1: like laid down the law and be like fuck her.
23:17
Speaker 1: We're talking in five minutes. The mother's love man, that
23:20
Speaker 1: the bird has left the nest, that's what she She
23:22
Speaker 1: just can't help herself. Jesus Christ. I'm losing all control
23:26
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Speaker 1: four two in Arizona. Let's get back to it. Can
25:19
Speaker 1: we talk about the Chicago Bears. Things have gone off
25:22
Speaker 1: the rails. They're like they have really number one Number one.
25:27
Speaker 1: The team has bought a plot of land in the
25:30
Speaker 1: town of Arlington Heights, not too far from where I
25:33
Speaker 1: grew up. I grew up in Highland Park. Arlington Heights
25:36
Speaker 1: is west of Highland Park. UH in college, A lot
25:40
Speaker 1: of my buddies grew up in Arlington Heights. Lived with
25:43
Speaker 1: a buddy from Arlington Heights that's in the suburbs. It's
25:47
Speaker 1: not downtown Soldier Field. The Bears been planned there since
25:49
Speaker 1: n They've always been in downtown team the picturesque views
25:54
Speaker 1: television skyline behind Soldier Field. It's amazing. The team a move.
26:00
Speaker 1: The team has a coach that everyone seems to have
26:04
Speaker 1: lost faith in. The meme that I have gotten seventy
26:07
Speaker 1: five times from my buddy Matt to my kid in
26:11
Speaker 1: the middle of high school. By the way he's sending
26:13
Speaker 1: me meme, So what does that tell you about how
26:14
Speaker 1: much he's paying attention in school? But whatever, sending me
26:17
Speaker 1: a meme that basically says Mitch Chubisky should be in
26:20
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame because of how well he did
26:22
Speaker 1: with his team in spite of that, Naggy. And yet
26:24
Speaker 1: I know we're gonna want to bet in the Bears
26:26
Speaker 1: at minus two and a half this week. I am,
26:28
Speaker 1: but because everything you just talked about, I've actually pulled
26:30
Speaker 1: back a little where I'm not I was gonna bet
26:32
Speaker 1: a lot, especially the way this line was moving down
26:34
Speaker 1: from three to minus two and a half. They might
26:38
Speaker 1: be the most dramatic, drama filled team right now in
26:40
Speaker 1: the NFL. Um Naggy kind of was weird. At the
26:44
Speaker 1: press conference, wouldn't say if he gave up um coaching
26:47
Speaker 1: duties to like his offensive coordinator. He wouldn't name a quarterback,
26:51
Speaker 1: even though Fields has a cast or a brace on
26:54
Speaker 1: his stand like on his hand or his thumb. And
26:56
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton he just came back to practice. So it
26:59
Speaker 1: seems like, um, it might end up being Nick Foles
27:03
Speaker 1: against behind that old line. It's a little terrifying. UM,
27:08
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do, Chad. I felt really
27:10
Speaker 1: confident about this team on Tuesday because it was gonna
27:13
Speaker 1: get a really nice number with this defense at home.
27:15
Speaker 1: But this team might already lost faith in their head
27:18
Speaker 1: coach and uh that that's a scary position of being
27:21
Speaker 1: where Detroit. There's a few teams that try harder that no,
27:26
Speaker 1: they're not good, and that's what's so scary about this matchup.
27:29
Speaker 1: It's UM, I thought this was gonna be a really
27:31
Speaker 1: nice spot for Chicago, especially after the way Detroit just lost.
27:34
Speaker 1: But it's giving me pause now. So I am on
27:38
Speaker 1: the Bears, but this will not be one of our five.
27:40
Speaker 1: There's no no chances will be one of our Now,
27:42
Speaker 1: I agree with you. This Detroit team look and we
27:45
Speaker 1: talked about this on Tuesday. We made a lot of
27:47
Speaker 1: fun of Dan Campbell for the budding of the knee caps.
27:50
Speaker 1: So this team, Detroit, We're gonna kick you in the
27:52
Speaker 1: teeth and when you punch this, we're gonna smile at you.
27:54
Speaker 1: And when you knock us down, we're gonna get up,
27:56
Speaker 1: and on the way up, we're gonna buy the knee
27:58
Speaker 1: cap off. All right, We're gonna your other need cop
28:01
Speaker 1: before long. Were they're going to be the last one standing.
28:03
Speaker 1: We made a lot of fun of Jared Goff for
28:06
Speaker 1: saying why not us? The truth is this team plays
28:10
Speaker 1: like they believe and it's hard to knock that they're
28:15
Speaker 1: really a a bad half against the Niners and a
28:21
Speaker 1: bad half against the Packers. That's what people were potentially
28:26
Speaker 1: remembering when they were against them against the Ravens last week.
28:33
Speaker 1: I wasn't. Somebody else was, Um, it's hard to knock
28:39
Speaker 1: this team right now, which might be exactly why you
28:41
Speaker 1: bit the Bears. Basically, it's like this will never even
28:45
Speaker 1: more love from for the lines in the public eye
28:48
Speaker 1: than right now. So I think that's why I would
28:50
Speaker 1: have to pass on this game entirely. Yeah, Um, all right,
28:54
Speaker 1: then we got to talk about this is the game
28:56
Speaker 1: that's lighting everybody up. The Jets plus seven plus seven
29:02
Speaker 1: and a half against the Titans. A lot of reasons
29:06
Speaker 1: to like the Jets. There are public perception reasons to
29:10
Speaker 1: like the Jets. There are on field injury reasons to
29:13
Speaker 1: like the Jets. There is over inflation. Um, give me
29:18
Speaker 1: whatever you want, but I'm telling you right now, I've
29:21
Speaker 1: already bet the Jets. I've already bet the Jets on
29:24
Speaker 1: the money line. I've already got a Jets Panthers money
29:30
Speaker 1: line parlay going. I'll be a nice pay day, fatheads. Yeah,
29:35
Speaker 1: people got a little weird or a little testy about
29:39
Speaker 1: last week. I was joking around people. If I tell
29:41
Speaker 1: you a better game, there is always a reason. I'm
29:42
Speaker 1: not just saying it to say, uh we we like
29:45
Speaker 1: this matchup for plenty of reasons. But the biggest one
29:48
Speaker 1: is what happened last year. The Browns came to play.
29:51
Speaker 1: The Jets were even worse and worst coach last year,
29:54
Speaker 1: and they had no wide receivers. And we're looking at
29:56
Speaker 1: the same exact position he with Tennessee. Tennessee is gonna
29:58
Speaker 1: be without a j Brown and they're gonna be without
30:01
Speaker 1: Julio their top two receivers. Again, I like Derrick Henry obviously,
30:05
Speaker 1: this guy is by far the best running back in football.
30:08
Speaker 1: But now it's given the Jets and edge where it's okay, okay,
30:10
Speaker 1: now we just had to take away the run and
30:12
Speaker 1: we'll just let Tannehill beat us with all these backups.
30:15
Speaker 1: And I don't know if you watched Tanno this year.
30:18
Speaker 1: He doesn't look good, he doesn't look right, and uh,
30:21
Speaker 1: this is too many points for a team. Again, it
30:25
Speaker 1: was what the look at was three and a half,
30:26
Speaker 1: I believe, and now it's all it was on all
30:28
Speaker 1: of the seven and a half. The Jets are bad,
30:31
Speaker 1: um and I know they just lost their safety to
30:33
Speaker 1: another major, major injury. But at the same time, this
30:36
Speaker 1: Jets team has a lot of good their Their defense
30:39
Speaker 1: is actually better than people think it is. Zack Wilson
30:41
Speaker 1: has been playing sloppy and made mistakes, but he's not
30:45
Speaker 1: gonna keep laying this bad and he can't. Honestly, he
30:48
Speaker 1: cannot stay this bad. He has to improve. So just
30:51
Speaker 1: based off all of this with the Tennessee's horrible defense,
30:53
Speaker 1: this is by far the easiest defensive Jets have played
30:56
Speaker 1: this season. We have to take the Jets here. We
30:58
Speaker 1: had to take a seven and a half every on
31:00
Speaker 1: You take this number, um, such a trap game for
31:02
Speaker 1: Tennessee to uh. It's It's rare when you get a
31:08
Speaker 1: team that just beats their their division rival so big,
31:11
Speaker 1: like they did last week where they knew they kind
31:13
Speaker 1: of got away with one of the colts there last week.
31:15
Speaker 1: Now they're feeling really good all week traveling up to
31:18
Speaker 1: New York playing a team. I don't think they're gonna
31:19
Speaker 1: take serious in the Jets because they have got awful
31:22
Speaker 1: and we're getting a great number. Um, unless we have
31:24
Speaker 1: a meltdown like we did last week with the Jaguars.
31:27
Speaker 1: You take this number every time and you're gonna cover
31:29
Speaker 1: most of the time. So like you just said, I
31:32
Speaker 1: will be betting the Jets, I'll be taking the Jets
31:33
Speaker 1: money line. Nothing's changed. If anything, I'm upset. I thought
31:36
Speaker 1: I wasn't got the eight for us, but the pros
31:38
Speaker 1: have coming now. I hit it down to seven. So
31:40
Speaker 1: still would take the seven people. But if you can
31:43
Speaker 1: find a book with seven and a half, you take
31:44
Speaker 1: that seven and a half. This is essentially a buying
31:49
Speaker 1: at the bottom of the market opportunity That's that's what
31:53
Speaker 1: we're doing. The very bottom, the very bottom until the
31:57
Speaker 1: Jets get blown out this week and next week will
32:00
Speaker 1: be the very very bottom for the New York Jets.
32:04
Speaker 1: But it's like them, the Eagles and the Patriots are
32:07
Speaker 1: They're all these teams that are gonna be getting you know,
32:10
Speaker 1: no money bet on them this week. The bookmakers know
32:13
Speaker 1: at least one of these guys are gonna win out
32:15
Speaker 1: right like this, just this is how the NFL works.
32:17
Speaker 1: Something weird is gonna happen again, nothing makes sense in
32:21
Speaker 1: the sport, Like we talk all the time. My favorite
32:23
Speaker 1: stat last year was the Colts that week won against
32:27
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. They never punted and they had zero turnovers
32:30
Speaker 1: and they still lost the game against the Jaguars. So
32:33
Speaker 1: it's like weird chips just gonna happen. It's just that's
32:36
Speaker 1: how football is. And that's what we're banking on here
32:38
Speaker 1: where too much, too much value is being blown up
32:41
Speaker 1: on a team to move at four points where the
32:45
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans shouldn't have moved that line four points off
32:47
Speaker 1: there win last week. So that's why we we do
32:49
Speaker 1: a value big job. It's it makes you feel a
32:51
Speaker 1: little less guilty when you feel like an idiot bet
32:53
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars last week. That's how I feel with
32:55
Speaker 1: the Justice week. It's a professional line. You have to
32:57
Speaker 1: bet this number every time. By the way, team getting
33:00
Speaker 1: the most money by far the bucks. They're like of
33:06
Speaker 1: the tickets right now coming in on the bus of
33:10
Speaker 1: the money. Which is why that's an interesting game because
33:15
Speaker 1: it opened at five and we're skipping ahead. We're not
33:18
Speaker 1: gonna we're not gonna have this game in our contest
33:21
Speaker 1: and we're not going to bet it. We're not gonna
33:23
Speaker 1: include it. It's only moved up to seven. Like, can
33:27
Speaker 1: you explain a little bit about why you think with
33:29
Speaker 1: everything that's happening, all these sentiments on the bus, like
33:33
Speaker 1: the lines only moved about a point and a half
33:37
Speaker 1: and someone got fired for that for that line we
33:40
Speaker 1: hung at five and a half. That was an awful,
33:42
Speaker 1: awful line to hang because even the professionals hammered that
33:45
Speaker 1: line Sunday night, Like I told you, I threw that
33:47
Speaker 1: in all my teasers, um them and the chiefs. That
33:49
Speaker 1: was just a bad number. So seven, I told people,
33:54
Speaker 1: I I'm going to take the pictures at the seven,
33:56
Speaker 1: seven and a half, whatever number they end up that
33:58
Speaker 1: I will be taking that Sunday night. Um, because just
34:01
Speaker 1: the simple factor Bucks secondary just isn't good enough to
34:04
Speaker 1: really close these games out. I know they did with Atlanta.
34:07
Speaker 1: Those are two picks six. Is that really ended that game? Um?
34:11
Speaker 1: I just think the Buccaneers were the way they're constructed
34:13
Speaker 1: right now, You're always gonna have a little bit of
34:15
Speaker 1: hope for a backdoor team, but we're they're like you
34:19
Speaker 1: just said, there's no chance for putting this in. Um,
34:22
Speaker 1: this is just a professional game where if I had
34:25
Speaker 1: this line at six and a half, I have to
34:27
Speaker 1: bet it now that it's at seven. So not uh,
34:31
Speaker 1: not one of my five best. But it's uh, it
34:36
Speaker 1: feels like a gift, I should say, from the from
34:38
Speaker 1: the sports books, and it's rare they give gifts. Usually
34:40
Speaker 1: a gift ends up being a trap. But no one,
34:43
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think any fan in the world
34:45
Speaker 1: can see Brady losing this game, especially the talent discrepancy
34:47
Speaker 1: where Bell Belichick you can say all we want that
34:50
Speaker 1: this guy is such a great coach. He hasn't really
34:53
Speaker 1: done much since Tommy's left, and this year people are
34:55
Speaker 1: really hyping up this Patriots team taking their over win
34:58
Speaker 1: tolls and all this other stuff. This just looks like
35:00
Speaker 1: a team that doesn't really have that much talent. So
35:03
Speaker 1: for me, it feels pretty comfortable having the Buccaneers and
35:05
Speaker 1: a lot of money line parlays and teasers, where normally
35:08
Speaker 1: I'd be scared of this kind of game where it's
35:09
Speaker 1: like this is a major trap. But Brady breaks all
35:12
Speaker 1: the rules, and we've talked about that all the time.
35:14
Speaker 1: This man always breaks these rules. So I feel a
35:17
Speaker 1: little piece of mind. You're taking the Buccaneers money law.
35:20
Speaker 1: What do you mean someone got fired for hanging a
35:21
Speaker 1: five and a half a bookmaker some somewhere somewhere in
35:25
Speaker 1: the mountains of Switzerland where I think that I got
35:28
Speaker 1: got fired because that was a bad line? Five and
35:30
Speaker 1: a half? Like, how did they not know the public
35:32
Speaker 1: was gonna hammer this line? So that was a bad
35:34
Speaker 1: number to hang? All right? Another game we wrote down
35:41
Speaker 1: Steelers Packers, Steelers is big dogs. Rob Ron Mike what
35:49
Speaker 1: Rober Mike ra Ra Mike Tomlin spot win the game?
35:54
Speaker 1: When this cruel bodies right here today, game to day?
36:00
Speaker 1: How do we not go every Listen, listen, I know
36:04
Speaker 1: you laugh at the systems, but I'm telling you right now,
36:08
Speaker 1: I did listen to Stucky and Raybon in the Action
36:10
Speaker 1: Network podcast this morning, and I knew I listened specifically
36:15
Speaker 1: for this game because of I knew this game was
36:18
Speaker 1: on our list. Let me give you some stats that
36:23
Speaker 1: they rattled off. So I'm blatantly stealing here, but it's
36:27
Speaker 1: a raw Rod Mike moment. I don't want to hear
36:29
Speaker 1: about the labor page man deliver the damn baby. Since
36:32
Speaker 1: two thousand three, as a road dog against winnings team
36:36
Speaker 1: winning teams, no coach has covered more than Mike Tomlin
36:40
Speaker 1: as a road dog period. He's one outright at a
36:44
Speaker 1: sixty clip. As a road dog against opponents with the
36:48
Speaker 1: same record or better, he covers it an eight percent
36:52
Speaker 1: clip plus. You say yourself, this game should be like
36:56
Speaker 1: four and a half. So how are we not loving
37:02
Speaker 1: the Steelers this week? I know, honestly, it's only because
37:06
Speaker 1: we have other ugly dogs that we like better. But again,
37:10
Speaker 1: this is a pro game. People like Chad. Just read
37:12
Speaker 1: you all those stats. You bet This is why you
37:14
Speaker 1: always bet it. You have to go. You have to
37:16
Speaker 1: think long term investment, and that's what this is. Let's
37:19
Speaker 1: a long term investment. But Roethlisberg is terrible, their defense
37:23
Speaker 1: is banged up, and Rodgers playing out of his mind.
37:26
Speaker 1: Uh again, they're not going to cover the spread. It's
37:29
Speaker 1: just doesn't make sense. That's why I love betting football,
37:33
Speaker 1: Like I can see these lines like you just you
37:35
Speaker 1: just talked about it. It's the minute I saw this line,
37:37
Speaker 1: I knew I was gonna go on Pittsburgh just because
37:38
Speaker 1: it was inflated so much. Those those statue just read
37:42
Speaker 1: makes me feel so much more comfortable. Where it's like
37:44
Speaker 1: Tomlin loves these positions, he loves getting the guys up
37:46
Speaker 1: for these kind of games. So I like it way
37:49
Speaker 1: better at seven. That's the reason we probably wouldn't end
37:51
Speaker 1: up with it are five because it's down to six
37:53
Speaker 1: and a half, which six and a half is still
37:55
Speaker 1: like key number. Um this sextra points weird numbers two
37:58
Speaker 1: because teams usually go for two out more often than
38:01
Speaker 1: you used to do. So we we liked the six
38:03
Speaker 1: and a half, but it's our best five. I don't know,
38:07
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a little scary where it's like, Okay,
38:10
Speaker 1: come Sunday, I know, I mean, you're gonna be all right,
38:11
Speaker 1: what are we doing? Steelers are the Jets, and we're
38:13
Speaker 1: going to pick one of these ugly dogs, So it's
38:15
Speaker 1: it usually gives me more comfort taking the home dog
38:17
Speaker 1: in this kind of situation. Me too, Me too. And
38:20
Speaker 1: I know on Sunday, consciously, I'm going to be thinking
38:23
Speaker 1: what are the games we're missing? What are the games
38:24
Speaker 1: we're missing? I'm gonna forget about it, and then Sunday,
38:28
Speaker 1: at about three thirty, I will text you and I
38:31
Speaker 1: will say, how the fuck did we not put this
38:35
Speaker 1: in the five? We liked it on Tuesday, we talked
38:38
Speaker 1: about it on Thursday, and Sunday morning we race through it.
38:42
Speaker 1: After we do convince me, I will call you. We
38:44
Speaker 1: will go through our five, and we will forget a
38:47
Speaker 1: game that we loved. I don't know how we do
38:49
Speaker 1: this every single fucking week. We do this. All right,
38:54
Speaker 1: We're still going to be on the Steelers as a bet.
38:56
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna take a little bit of Steelers money line.
38:58
Speaker 1: They will probably be in the money line parlay. No,
39:00
Speaker 1: I'm not. I would not recommend that. You're not. You're
39:02
Speaker 1: giving me a look, I'm taking it out. It's not
39:04
Speaker 1: gonna happen. It's a cover game. This I just don't
39:07
Speaker 1: see a situation where they can win this one. Rob
39:10
Speaker 1: rob Mike. It's rob Ron Mike. That's how they're gonna win,
39:12
Speaker 1: because rob Ron Mike doesn't more than anybody else in
39:14
Speaker 1: the history of football. Uh, are we still thinking about
39:18
Speaker 1: the Broncos that line? That line um has moved. We
39:24
Speaker 1: thought that line. Uh, you can get either team depending
39:29
Speaker 1: on the book, as an underdog right now. So what
39:33
Speaker 1: are we thinking? Big balls better the week, Chad, Big
39:37
Speaker 1: balls better the week? Yeah, apparently the public does not
39:44
Speaker 1: care that Lamar might be kind of hurt and the
39:47
Speaker 1: Ravens are missing a ton of key positions because they're
39:50
Speaker 1: coming in heavy on them. We're kind of on an
39:51
Speaker 1: island here. This is when the other games. A lot
39:54
Speaker 1: of professionals reached out to me about they love We
39:56
Speaker 1: all love Denver. We all love them a mile high
39:59
Speaker 1: the same reason last week we talked about it. I
40:01
Speaker 1: I like Denver even though they're minus ten. It's just
40:03
Speaker 1: amouth high effect. They always play better at home. That's
40:05
Speaker 1: just a big advantage where you get one big play
40:08
Speaker 1: from the other team and they're sucking oxygen on the sideline.
40:11
Speaker 1: So we love Denver. This is just a great matchup
40:14
Speaker 1: for them. Their their D line is a perfect D
40:16
Speaker 1: line to take down Lamar and his running style. Um,
40:20
Speaker 1: maybe the only guy on that D line he can
40:21
Speaker 1: outrun his von Miller, but probably not bond Miller still
40:24
Speaker 1: got it. So I just like the matchup in you know,
40:28
Speaker 1: like Chad said, we were hoping to get Denver as
40:30
Speaker 1: a dog here. I don't think it's gonna move that
40:32
Speaker 1: way for us, but I think too many professionals are
40:34
Speaker 1: coming in on Denver. But well, we'll take the number.
40:36
Speaker 1: I just want to have them in teasers because I
40:38
Speaker 1: don't really like crossing the zero. Sometimes I will, but
40:41
Speaker 1: in this situation, I feel like you either just take
40:43
Speaker 1: them the one straight up or you stay away. Alright,
40:47
Speaker 1: last game we had circled. I'm excited that we're on
40:50
Speaker 1: the same page on that one, Raiders and Chargers. So
40:55
Speaker 1: this game is is sort of waffling. Three three and
40:57
Speaker 1: a half, three three and a half. Even at three
41:00
Speaker 1: and a half, I know it's a divisional game. Two
41:03
Speaker 1: good teams. Three is the right side. It could be
41:06
Speaker 1: a field goal game. The Chargers just feel like a
41:09
Speaker 1: much better team to me. I continue to think that
41:12
Speaker 1: the Raiders are inflated, that they're not as good as
41:16
Speaker 1: they've played. They've had a couple of good breaks. Um,
41:20
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm just not in on the Raiders. I'm
41:23
Speaker 1: just not in. It's mainly Derek cart playing out of
41:26
Speaker 1: his mind right Like this guy is just on another
41:30
Speaker 1: level right now. So I'm right there with you. My
41:33
Speaker 1: favorite matchup last week was Darwin James versus Kelsey. Kelsey
41:37
Speaker 1: kind of kind of dominated him, you guess. So we
41:39
Speaker 1: end up winning the Chargers. So I think we have
41:40
Speaker 1: the same thing here where I gave out earlier year.
41:43
Speaker 1: I gave him my favorite Rookie of the Year because
41:45
Speaker 1: it's not Samuel Jr. I think it was four to
41:47
Speaker 1: one to win Rookie of the Year. He's now down
41:49
Speaker 1: to ten to one. He's got two picks. Um, he
41:51
Speaker 1: intercepted Dak and he intercepted my homes. I love him
41:55
Speaker 1: too as the Carver corner. So a lot of signs
41:59
Speaker 1: just point to the Argers be able to shut down
42:02
Speaker 1: not car completely, but enough where you know, this line
42:06
Speaker 1: at minus three and a half was a little scary
42:08
Speaker 1: ticket charges. Now it's down to three. Like Chad just said,
42:11
Speaker 1: I love the Chargers Vegas. I don't know what the
42:14
Speaker 1: exact money is gonna be in the actual city of Vegas,
42:17
Speaker 1: but I guarantee it's gonna sevent of the money is
42:19
Speaker 1: gonna be on the Raiders. It's gonna be a little
42:20
Speaker 1: different across the country, but man, is this this That
42:23
Speaker 1: city really embraced that team. So I think we're gonna
42:26
Speaker 1: learn pretty quick here. We like to take Vegas at
42:28
Speaker 1: home and we have to kind of fade them on
42:30
Speaker 1: the road where I know people are gonna go back
42:32
Speaker 1: to that Pittsburgh game that was just such a letdown
42:34
Speaker 1: game by Pittsburgh after being Buffalo, Like we kind of
42:37
Speaker 1: know now what Pittsburgh NNA is, where you know you
42:41
Speaker 1: can say what you want about this Oakland team. I
42:44
Speaker 1: don't know they're They're still major holes and major weaknesses
42:47
Speaker 1: on this team. So I like, in this matchup of
42:50
Speaker 1: divisional game, you take the Chargers here at home against
42:53
Speaker 1: the team and you know their car that's just playing
42:55
Speaker 1: a way above what they really are. I'd like how
42:58
Speaker 1: you to continue to call them wind. I can't help it.
43:01
Speaker 1: In the fame of the Charger, I call it Sandy
43:03
Speaker 1: Got Chargers all the time too. I'm sorry, buddy, I'm
43:05
Speaker 1: just an old soul I will say I love the
43:07
Speaker 1: Raiders helmets. I just love him. Yeah. My my favorite
43:12
Speaker 1: clips is on the NFL films. They're talking about the
43:14
Speaker 1: autumn winds and that's just the Oakland Rador helmet comes
43:17
Speaker 1: on the screen. It's just so good. The autumn wind
43:21
Speaker 1: is a radar pillaging just for fun. He'll knock you
43:25
Speaker 1: around and upside down and laugh when he's conquered. And one.
43:30
Speaker 1: All right, these are the teams that we're thinking about
43:32
Speaker 1: right now. I think we feel pretty good about him. Panthers, Vikings, Jets.
43:40
Speaker 1: Then on the fence right now, depending on the numbers,
43:43
Speaker 1: we can get Giants, Steelers, Denver Chargers. So right now
43:49
Speaker 1: we're gonna choose five from We're gonna choose two from
43:53
Speaker 1: those remaining four Giants Steelers, Denver Chargers. Are we feeling
43:56
Speaker 1: good about that? And we're probably gonna Denver because that's
43:59
Speaker 1: my big ball is better week, most likely better the
44:02
Speaker 1: week running. We're on nice little heated with the big
44:06
Speaker 1: balls better the week, so we went so basically we've
44:09
Speaker 1: chosen four in the Panthers, Bikes Jets in Denver. I
44:12
Speaker 1: like that we might have a little bit of a favorite.
44:15
Speaker 1: I'm kind of falling in love with the charters too,
44:17
Speaker 1: But we're owing one on Monday nights though. It's true,
44:23
Speaker 1: it's true, that's true, all right. If we're doing a
44:25
Speaker 1: money line parlay, which teams are we putting in our
44:28
Speaker 1: money line parlay? And I noted I already have the
44:33
Speaker 1: Jets and the Panthers in a money line parlay. If
44:36
Speaker 1: we're adding it for a round robin, who are we
44:38
Speaker 1: putting in there? Yep, like Panthers, like Minnesota. I have
44:43
Speaker 1: a couple with the Giants in there. I have a
44:46
Speaker 1: decent amount with the Jets in there. I don't know
44:48
Speaker 1: why I'm so all in on the Jets, but I am.
44:51
Speaker 1: I'm not I was gonna put the lines in there.
44:52
Speaker 1: I just can't do it as I know that they
44:56
Speaker 1: probably that's a good that's a good number. Like you
44:58
Speaker 1: just talked to the short hone. There's short road. Dogs
45:01
Speaker 1: have been winning outright, so that that's non beare fans
45:04
Speaker 1: out there this this is a good one to put in.
45:06
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a fifth leg, all right. We got our
45:08
Speaker 1: big balls, we got our final five, kind of, we've
45:10
Speaker 1: got our moneyline. Probably it's the Survivor Pool pick of
45:16
Speaker 1: the Week. Bengals done. Get your pick in now. If
45:28
Speaker 1: someone doesn't hear this until tomorrow or Saturday, what's their backup?
45:34
Speaker 1: I know, I know where guy read he likes the
45:36
Speaker 1: Saints as a sneaky play. But mean you talked about
45:39
Speaker 1: we like the Giants as an underdog winner. So if
45:42
Speaker 1: you're boring and you just want to play extra safe
45:45
Speaker 1: like I usually do, I have a couple, Um, you know,
45:48
Speaker 1: a couple of people reach out to me. They just
45:49
Speaker 1: like Buffalo. Yeah, yeah, No one's gonna stop you there.
45:52
Speaker 1: That's that's an easy safe play. I just rather save
45:54
Speaker 1: Buffalo because they play the Jets twice. So, um, we're
45:57
Speaker 1: doing a little risky here taking the Thursday Night team
46:00
Speaker 1: Like Bengos just look like world beaters. Jaguars a complete
46:03
Speaker 1: train wreck. The Jaguars be able to backdoor this game,
46:06
Speaker 1: but I just can't see them winning it. So I'm
46:08
Speaker 1: with it. Well, I'm gonna put the Bengos in first
46:09
Speaker 1: survivor pick me too. This has been the favorites from
46:14
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network for my bff, Simon Hunter. I
46:19
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Catch us talking about all the games,
46:23
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