Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Volatility NIGHTMARE Ahead?📉Technical Analysis with Tim Warren

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Volatility NIGHTMARE Ahead?📉Technical Analysis with Tim Warren · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today we'll be diving into some explosive news coming out
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: of the White House. Also, take a look at twenty
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: twenty six. It is going to be an awesome one.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I just want to jump right into it today. And
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: of course I'm going to bring in my friend, my
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: fellow compatriot, mister Tim Warren, coming in from you know him,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Tim Warren Trades.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: How's it going, Tim, it's going, Paul, What another crazy
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: day for crypto here.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: It's getting out of control.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: If you guys have not visited mister Tim Warren's channel,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I want you to jump over there right now, hit
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: that little subscribe button and watch a handful of these
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: videos because he does a really good job at breaking
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: down things and getting it into very digestible snippets that
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: you guys can understand. So check out Tim Warren. It
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: is an awesome one for sure.
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: Tim.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to a point or two that I
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: want to hit on. There's several scenarios that are playing
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: out underneath this one. We have some analysts that are
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: pointing to twenty twenty six being one of the best
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: years out there. Then you have a lot of you know,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: star wars that have been really in this industry for
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: some time calling for a different analysis on this. Just
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: before we get started, and we kind of hit on
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Trump's recent tweets, which is pretty crazy.
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: What is your thought?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Are you bullish or bearish for twenty six?
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it depends on who you ask.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: People like to say where I am all the time,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: and you know, I'm bearish right now in the immediate
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: like short term, next couple of hours, next couple of days,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: potential I think there's some concerns there. I'm closure to
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: bullish as you think they're in twenty six. I'm still bullish.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: I'll remain bullish. Obviously, twenty twenty five was supposed to
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: be bullished for a handful of reasons.
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: I was bullish all the twenty five got that one wrong.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: So there's that element I think everyone has to have
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: where it's like, hey, we're in a different game right now.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Things have changed. We've never seen crypto move the way
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: it's moved this year. But I still believe there's a
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: lot of catalysts that once we kind of sort out
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: all of the manipulation, once the whales and the new
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: institutions coming in have their fill of cheap levels, I
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: still think a lot of signs are putting towards a
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: very explosive twenty twenty six.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: So twenty six being explosive, obviously, with what that is
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: going to take, it's going to take some major moves
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: from the Fed. Here it is right here, President Trump says,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: anybody disagrees with me will never be the FED chair.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: And then right underneath that, it says President Trump says,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: inflation will take care of itself, and if it doesn't
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: keywords right there, guys, we can always raise rates. So
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: what do you make of that? Do you feel like
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: is that any kind of indicator that we could actually
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: see some rates being raised?
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: You know, I learned a long time ago you temper
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: your expectations when Donald Trump speaks. You can never take
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: his highs as high as he makes them sound, and
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: you can never take these lows as low as he
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: says at the end of the day. Isn't this what the
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Fed's been saying they can always get It's almost like
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: the opposite. Jerome Howells almost like, hey, if inflation gets better,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: we can always cut rates. And so it's like, yeah,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: you told us what we already know. Inflation goes up,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: we want to raise rates INFLACE goes down, we want
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: to cut rates. I think it depends to where people
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: want to see. I don't know a lot of people.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I'm sure there's somebody out here in the community who says, no,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: I like high interest rates. I like it hard to
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: borrow money. I think ninety nine percent of us would
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: like to see them come down. And to be fair,
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: he's right, we could always just raise rates back up.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: It's yeah.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Well, I think the key here is is what would
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: that look like to the market if we continue to
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: see stock market. I mean, we're closing in on sixty
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: nine hundred. We could just seven thousand, maybe, which was
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee's target before the end of the year. We
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: have a tweet out there that is a poll on
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: what basket of all coins would you choose as safe choices?
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: What would it be?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I'm showing Ethereum, Salona, Asi, Avax, Link, and Uni. This
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: is the list We've got eth Ata, suite A, vax soul, A,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: vax uned Link, XRP link like coin EIGHTA and XRP
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: or a vax XRP Uh. I think it means pengu
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: here and link which one?
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's start by making very clear. As
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: much as I am bullish. As much as I'm bullish,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: safe and crypto should not be used together, right, that's the.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: Whole word making some of the same.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, yeah, uh, you know what I would go
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: with here. I think people are gonna know Link's got
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: to be in that. I think Link is potentially ethereum
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: and Link kind of go hand in hand with.
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: The safest plays. What keeps me away from bag number one?
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: And I know a lot of people are get upset
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: about me, upset at me for saying this, And I
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: want to preface this by saying I.
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: Still hold a Cardino bag, Paul. I don't know about you.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: I'm losing some confidence in Cardano and.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: I don't want to open up that whole can of
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: worms he or on Today show that probably the show
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: in and of itself. So I'm hesitant to say number one.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: I really like Solana, but in the second batch, I
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: have no etherium. Like I wish there was a batch
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: that had Link, Solana, and ethereum all in it. That
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: would probably be my go to. But let's just go here.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with option to Solana, avax Union Link.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: I wish UNI was ethereum instead, but that's where I
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: would go.
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: Go.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: All right, so your vote came in as the least
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: selected bag.
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: I like that. You love that. I love that.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Number one is XRP link light Coin EIGHTA, holding at
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: forty six percent right now, about one hundred and sixty
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: votes in. So uh, hopefully you guys can go back
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to the to the x account and catch out when
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: there's more votes in there to see if they hold up.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: But that's interesting statements that you got there. Hey, A
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: couple of things that have happened is we've had the
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: quarter three GDP absolutely blown out of the water. I
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: mean it's up a percent, up four point three. We
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be three to three. A lot
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: of people pointing at this saying, well, the economy is resilient,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: but we aren't seeing price action on this. Does this
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: stuff matter anymore?
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: You know?
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: I think I saw it post of several accounts.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to try to take credit for this.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: You almost have two different economies right now. You have
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: the AI economy that is booming, but that's what's causing
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: a lot of people to say potentially is AI in
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: a bubble, which I'm not necessarily certain it is, but
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: it's a fair argument that AI is propping up GDP,
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: it's propping up the S and P five hundred, it's
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: propping up the economy, and if it isn't a bubble,
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: that could spell a lot of doom for the economy
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: if the AI were to go pop and follow downside.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: Now, I don't think it's going to happen.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: I don't want to spread any fear there, but that's
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: that's the reality of what's happening right now. That's the
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: reason people are scratching their heads because they're like, food's expensive,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: electricity is expensive, housing is expensive. You know, people are
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: Unemployment is rising. Why is the GDP so strong? Look
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: at the AI sector that's carrying the load right now,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: but I'm still well six the others can catch up.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so sector holding. But in general, you look
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: at what this growth is going to look like for
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: next year. I've got a clip here from Tom Lee.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I want to play for you and then get your
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: opinion on this.
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: Take a look.
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: I think it's still possible to have a double digit year.
• 7:26
  Speaker 6: There have been twelve times in the last one hundred
• 7:28
  Speaker 6: years where markets posted three years at twenty percent gains
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: this year hasn't finished yet. Globally, half the time markets
• 7:36
  Speaker 6: do even better in the following year. So I think
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: next year is a year where the debate is going
• 7:42
  Speaker 6: to be is the bull cycle over or is it
• 7:45
  Speaker 6: going to extend. I think it's going to create quite
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: a lot of volatility the first half. But I think
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: GDP growth is stronger, we have a dubvish FED, valuations
• 7:53
  Speaker 6: are reasonable, so I think we end up exiting very strong.
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: Why a lot of volatility in the first half.
• 7:59
  Speaker 6: That part of it is the Trump tariffs could get overturned.
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: There is a possibility of an extended government shutdown. The
• 8:09
  Speaker 6: nomination and then confirmation of a new FED chair is
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: going to take three months. That could be very controversial.
• 8:17
  Speaker 6: I think all of that happens in the first half
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: of next year.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: All right, So there you have it, Tom Lee. Early
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: volatility playing into this that could be good for crypto
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: in general. If you're looking at entry points, what would
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: be your bitcoin target right now? If you look at
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the charts, where would you target bitcoin in early next
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: year and say this is a buy right here?
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think you're possibly looking at prices
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: right now and your between right now and down towards
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: seventy four to five, I would call a by right
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: now again. Even that volatility he's talking about, I think
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: there's a level in which you know, if you're in
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: a sector like AI stocks, or if you're looking at
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: gold or silver, well, you've just had a massive run up.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: So when you hear the word volatile and you've been
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: very bullish, that's probably not the words you want to hear.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Volatile probably means a swing in the opposite direction. Doesn't
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: mean a bear market, doesn't mean eighty percent crashes. It
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: just means, hey, you've had a nice, big rally, we're
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: about to get volatile.
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: You're coming back down.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Crypto space has been falling. So the word volatile in
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: crypto actually sounds kind of nice right now. It sounds
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: like something that could swing us back to the upside.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: And so when I look at my chart here and
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: i'll share it, yes, look at it. What I continue
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: to maintain some shorter term support and resistance that I
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: think is very key. Number one right here, eighty four
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: eighty five thousand dollars area. This actually is a very
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: significant level for this Friday. The options expirer that happens,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: it has a I think a poll wall here at
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: eighty five thousand. If people don't know what that means,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: it's fine. It means strong support. The strong resistance actually
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: is up at one hundred thousand, but the max pain,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: which is very interesting and sitting at ninety six thousand dollars.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: So right now, between eighty five and ninety six k
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: is the short term. I think support and resistance level.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: Whether you're in a bear market mood or not, I
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: think that I think you should not rule out a
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: bigger move to the upside. I still think we're watching
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: after losing the fifty week moving average that's this yellow
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: line right here, I think a movement back up towards it.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: That and maybe look at the two hundred day SMA
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: for example, which by the way, twohundad SMA is sitting
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: currently at one hundred and seven and dropping. The fifty
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: week moving average sitting at one hundred and one in dropping.
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: I still think you could.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: See early in twenty twenty six, because I'd be surprised
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: if this happens in the next week and a day,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: so eight days left this year. I still think we
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: could see an early run at least back up two
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: one hundred thousand to meet that fifty week moving average
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: close to that two hundred day moving average. After that, though,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: the question becomes, do we put in a higher low
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: and start making a move towards all time high, or
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: do we run into resistance and make a lower move,
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: maybe back towards April lows. I think seventy four k
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: is going to be a very key level of support.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: If that is lost, I think it's the keyword if
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I think the next spot you're watching is a pretty
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: severe one all the way down to the two hundred
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: week moving average, which is climbing. It's currently a fifty
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: seven thousand. I think by the time we'd make it there,
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: you're probably looking at sixty to sixty five thousand as
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: the realistic floor for that level.
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: I'm not convinced we're going there. I think there's a chance.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: I'd give this, Paul, I give a about a thirty
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: to forty percent chance the bottom is in. I think
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: seventy four you're starting to put in more like that's
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: maybe when I'm putting fifty, I think there's still a
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: chance of sixty k.
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's strong. I there's a chance of it. Good.
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: Let me ask.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: You this right here, because you're dealing with people who
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: it's end of year, so there's some tax loss harvesting
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: coming in on on you know, projects and mostly all
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: coins that you just got, you know, posted on this
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: year if you purchased this year. But if you are
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: one of the bitcoiners and one of the Ethereum holders
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: and one of the XRP holders who purchased last year
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: in twenty four or twenty three, you are up. What
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: about the issue of people saying, listen, it so close
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: to the end of the year, I think my last
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: year year and run. I'm going to roll these capital
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: gains into next year and January is when I'm going
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: to start taking profits. Are you at all worried about
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: those kinds of strategies that could be playing into it
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: right now in terms of profit taking that could hit,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: you know, because some of this could be pretty big
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin holders saying I'm done.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: It's possible, and I'd have to see some numbers presented
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: to me of what kind of people would want to
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: make that type of a move. I think right now,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: when you're looking at the amount of frustration, clearly long
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: term holders are frustrated, right, I'm a long term holder.
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: I'm frustrated. But yet I'm bullish.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: I think the people are so frustrated are considering selling.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: There's gonna be way more of those that are more
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: in a position than want to sell in loss that
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: in and and gain. And I get that tax I
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: was partising done early. I understand what your logic is saying.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: There is saying there could be some people that roll
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: into twenty twenty six. They take their capital gains early
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: in preparation. I'm going to continue, though, to preach that
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: this whole move. When I go back to my chart,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: you know, do not I don't get everything right. I
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: get I get things wrong all the time, but I
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: get a good amount right. And even though I didn't
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: take advantage of it, I should have. I prepared our community.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: I said, do not be surprised. In October of twenty
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: twenty five. There is the perceived notion of a four
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: year cycle top that will come in. I think there
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: will be a selloff.
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: Now.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Did I think we get this low? No, I think
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: we went lower than even I anticipated, which is why
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: I didn't sell my crypto. But I told my community,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: I said do not be surprised if, as we have,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: still not had regulatory clarity, as the institution says, still
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: not really jumped in, although there's they're flirting with it
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: every single week. Don't be surprised to see a move
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: to the downside that convinces retail that's it for your cycles.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Intac we're going to keep going lower, and we're gonna
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: have our normal seventy to eighty percent correction all the while.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: We'll find a location somewhere. Maybe it's right in here
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: that the institutions set up camp to accumulate as much
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: as possible, and it's right when you're convinced we're about
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: to go lower that they'll decide nope, it's actually time
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: to go to the upside. So anything's possible. Paul, I
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: don't have a crystal ball. You don't have a crystal ball.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I've told you before. If you find one, please let
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: me know. I would love to get my hands on it.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: But I still think there's a lot of strong arguments
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: for this manipulated move down is a calculated move by
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: institutions like JP Morgan and others. Also, historically, quantitative easing
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: is a very good thing for risk on assets. Crypto
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: is a risk on assets. We are cutting rates, and
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: even though we haven't declared it, we are pretty much
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: utilizing quantity of easing by the FED now injecting the
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: it's only a matter of time into twenty twenty six
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: before official QI is announced. I just don't see that
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: spelling out a bearish year for bitcoin.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: What do you think?
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, so obviously the FED chair selection, but what even
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee said there in that clip was that this
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: could elongate into middle of the year. You look at
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: the poly market right now, right now, it's still has
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: it on the high side. I'll zoom in on that
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: for you guys, so you can kind of see it
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: right there, has it on the high side gaining ground again,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: which is interesting, holding it at about sixty two percent.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: And it appears that he would be the one that
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Trump would say, hey, this is the guy for us,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: because he's going to be in that position. Are you
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: at all worried about the FED independence becoming a thing
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: that investors would actually look at in a negative way
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: going with FED rate cuts.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think so, Paul, because I think that if anything,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of very good friends with
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: the people who now control the FED, of course, that
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: being the Trump family and the Trump administration.
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: They're going to see the opportunity. They're gonna see the
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: opportunity for some pretty big moves to the upside. Right,
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: We're gonna get more rate cuts. We're gonna see things happening. Paul.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: I don't I don't want the FED to be independent
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: or dependent. I would love the FED just to go
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: ahead and be obliterated. I would love said to no
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: longer exist. I think there's gonna be some fear mongering
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: along the way, but I I don't know.
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: At least it is time, Paul.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: I don't think I have any worry at all about
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: maybe too heavy control from the US government on the FED.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: But maybe maybe I'll change my mind as things kind
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: of develop.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: All right, well, we got to talk a look a
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: look at whether people like tariffs or not. This, of course,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: is Scott Bessent. This is a clip of him talking
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: about it.
• 16:49
  Speaker 7: Take a look, Scott, it seems like the tariffs have
• 16:52
  Speaker 7: had an enormously positive impact. Why do you think so
• 16:57
  Speaker 7: many people got it wrong? What did they get wrong?
• 17:01
  Speaker 7: What did they miss that you were able to see?
• 17:04
  Speaker 8: Well, a couple of things. People didn't have an open mind.
• 17:07
  Speaker 8: They became the Trump tariffs because President Trump wanted to
• 17:11
  Speaker 8: do it. It must be bad. I said the other day,
• 17:14
  Speaker 8: President Trump cured cancer, but it caused dandrupe. Then people
• 17:18
  Speaker 8: would say, well, President Trump has caused the dandrup epidemic.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: What is your opinion on tariff? Do you feel like
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: this is really hitting the bottom line of inflation or not?
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: It's it's anyone who tries to say that tariffs have
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: no impact on inflation, they are lying to you or
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: they're very ill informed. They absolutely have impact on inflation.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: When it comes to is a good thing or not,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: that actually depends on what happens down the road. I've
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: said several times, and I've got in trouble for this,
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: but I'll say it again on your channel.
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: Maybe I won't get I'll probably actually get more trouble
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: on your channel. But that's what it is.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: If we get to a place where we start to
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: eliminate or at least seriously supp press income tax, then
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: I think tariffs are a good thing. Going back to
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: what we had pre World War One, where there was
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: no income tax and the government made us money based
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: off tariffs. I think that's a great idea to go
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: back to. Some economists disagree, but I think that's okay.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: A world in which we have both tariffs and income
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: tax is terrible. And even listening to these guys listening
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: to wealth from individuals saying that that this is a
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: good thing. Wealthy people have not been hit hard by tariffs,
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: and maybe a lot of them have actually benefited from them.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: It's disingenuous though, to smaller people, to small business owners,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: to the person who has jobs at key key companies
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: who depend upon imports. Those are the people being hit.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: So to say, oh, people are trying to spin this
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: is a bad thing.
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: No, at the moment.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: If you're being hit by income tax and tariffs, your
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: paycheck is being hit, your inflation is being hit, your
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: job is being hit. It has been a negative thing
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: to this point. What still remains at question is if
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: it can be a good thing long term. That's why
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I'm holding out.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: On I think this is going to play out negatively
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: for the current administration on affordability. If something doesn't really
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: spin around, this is going to be a problem next year.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: This is the issue right here. This is a Trump
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: administration starting to seize defaulted student loan monies, and they're
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: going to do it through your pay So basically they're
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: talking about garnishing your wages if you own our loan
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: owe money to the US government in reference to student loan.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: These are the kind of things that to me just
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: you know, scream the issue that we're dealing with right now,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: which is where we are currently from the economy side,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: where most of the voters are living, which I think
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: are a lot of crypto voters right now, and now
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: the administration pulls this, I just don't know. This just
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: feels wrong.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not good, Paul, because on one hand, I'm
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: a big believer of you should pay your debts right,
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: people should pay their debts one but the minute the
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: government starts putting his hand in my bank account on
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: my paycheck, what's the line between us and China? What's
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: the line between us and a very dangerous world down
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: the world. I really hope that this headline was more
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: of a feeler outer and doesn't come to fruition.
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: It's a scary world.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: If that is going to hit some pushback, I think
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: he's going to get some pushback on this. Anthony Pampriano
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: comes out and he's talking about bitcoin and the potential
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: for it. I wanted to play this clip for you
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: get your attention.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Opinion.
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: It's like at bitcoin prices this morning, oh my god,
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: there might not be another interest rate cut. Better sell
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: some bitcoin.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, I think that there are a
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: lot of bitcoin investors that are disappointed that bitcoin did
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: not go to one fifty two, two hundred and fifty.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, take your a crazy number that people were predicting.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: At the same time, we have to remember bitcoin is
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: up one hundred percent in two years too. It's up
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: almost three hundred percent in the years it has been compounding.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: The compounding your growth rate a bitcoin of the last
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: decade is seventy percent. This thing has been a monster
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: in financial markets. But it has volatility, and so one
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: of the aspects of bitcoin that people aren't talking about
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: is that the volatility of bitcoin has actually been coming down.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: And so we didn't get a blowoff top that I
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: think people expected in kind of the end of Q
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: three are beginning of Q four, But we also haven't
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: seen the big eighty percent draw down that people normally
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: expect as well.
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: Did you see it go down a lot more. You
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: said a little bit more. What's the next There's nothing
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: on the horizon. Really, there is Washington still matter. You
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: need that legislation. We don't have it yet.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: Really, again, if we go back to this idea of
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: artificial intelligence and bitcoin or crypto or kind of the
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: two big areas where the future of finances, what I
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: believe is going to happen here is I think that
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: AI and AI agents are going to be offense. But
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: then what's going to happen is that these companies are
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: going to take that capital and they're going to go
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: and they're going to stick it into crypto and their
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: balance sheet. You could think of bitcoin and crypto as
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: the defense and actually protecting that purchasing power. Now, what
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: I find very interesting is that defense, some of it's
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: going to be bitcoin, It's going to be stable points.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: Some of them may even be tokenized gold.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: All right, so you you heard that. For him to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: mention tokenis gold is crazy because now you're dealing with
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: the situation. I think that a lot of bitcoiners face
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: with people who are investing in bitcoin right now because
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: it's like, what is a ridiculous amount of people are
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: down right now overall on their Bitcoin holdings, and it's
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: only the ogs that are in a position. Do you
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: think we're going to get some pushback from the markets
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: in general from this?
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: You know, there's some things that he said that I
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: think are a little funny.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: First of all, he said, oh, it's it's I agree
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: with him, it's less faluatile.
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: But it's like, oh, we're not down eighty percent. It's like, well,
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: it's not.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Sometimes it's not the right time trying to be down
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: eighty percent just yet. In theory we could still do that.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: But but I want to continue to go back to
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: some things I've said several times on this channel and
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: other channels as well. This is a game. This is
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: a game to what we call the composite man. This entity,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: this large institutional entity that works is one person to
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: manipulate markets and to get these things. I'm not surprised
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: by this pullback. I'm not surprised by your tactics. This
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: is a tail as old as time. Unless and maybe
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: people are here. Unless you believe that bitcoin is dead.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: If you think blockchain technology is dead and it is
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: going to zero, sure, sell off, run for the hills. Otherwise,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: if you think it's valuable. Why wouldn't the elites who
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: want to control everything they can control, why wouldn't they
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: have some form of manipulation at play. And it's when
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: you start to hear the biggest cries of concern and
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: fear that you're probably starting to get towards a bottom
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: overall when it goes to interest rates. That's the other
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: thing I think is really interesting. But he said, being
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: in the clip, Paul, he said, Oh, looks like we're
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: not gonna get another interest rate cut in January, so
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: should we started selling off bitcoin. Bitcoin's been selling off
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: during several interest rates that cuts of this time. People
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: think it's so simple that it's like, oh, interest rate
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: cuts means bullishness for bitcoin.
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: No, it has not.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: We've been cutting the last couple of meetings. We've also
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: been dropping the couple of meetings. It turns out it's
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: a little more complicated than that. Recently, good news has
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: been bad, Bad news has been bad, Neutral news has
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: been bad. It's almost like the news is not what's
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: influencing bitcoin price right now.
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: Something else is.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: You can have that your own answer for yourself. My
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: answer is I still believe that bitcoin has an extremely
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: bright future. I think it's going to be. I think
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: in the next ten to fifteen years, people will be
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: measuring their wealth in terms of how much bitcoins tooshi's
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: they own, not in terms of US dollars. But because
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: of a world like that, and because we're still early
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: to the game of cryptocurrency, manipulators are manipulating, and they
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: can do so at very extreme levels.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt. Let's talk about ethereum for a second.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: This chart alone starts to get me worried about where
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: ethereum could go from here. What say you, Tim, Do
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: you like it? You don't like it?
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: You know?
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: The chart there doesn't necessarily tell a whole lot of
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: details what's going on. It's some lines drawn there. I
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: don't lessarily think that that's what I'm watching and worried about.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not convinced we're going to see this support level.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: I have a support level down here that I've actually
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: had for quite some time. Here, at about twenty six
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: hundred to maybe as low as twenty four hundred. You're
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: gonna see its kind of right there in the middle
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: of the big swing between April and then the highs
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: here of August. That to me is strong support. I
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: didn't say this earlier, Paul, but I should have when
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: we're talking about bitcoin. But it's the same thing when
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: it comes to ethereum. This is one of the reasons
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: why I'm buying right now. Again, I don't have a
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: crystal ball. I can't promise you the bottom's in, But
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: one of the reasons I'm buying right now on the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: weekly chart is this indicator right here that is giving
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: us a signal very similar to the previous lows. This
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: looks very similar to April of twenty five, It looks
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: similar to September of twenty four, it looks similar to
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: September of twenty three. It's on Bitcoin, it's on ethereum,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: it's on the total chart, it's across crypto in general.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Whether you think the bull market is done or not.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: This bi signal where let's go to bitcoin for example,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: see it this reversal indicator green momentum, and then the
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: money flow is starting to pile back up Bitcoin, ethereum, alcoins,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: take your pick. Is it is historically aligned with major
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: bottoms coming in and new moves to the upside flowing afterwards.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: In fact, even people might say ten, but we're in
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: a bear market. Okay, maybe we don't get a new
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: all time high. Maybe we're in a bear market. Go
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: back though, to that relief rally of twenty twenty two.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Look at what came in here, reversal, greenmomentum, dot positive
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: money flow Bitcoin to rally forty five percent. It wouldn't
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: put in a new all time high. It would have
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: just hit on that two hundred ay SMA, but it
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: was a rally that people can long. If you had
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: bought in January of twenty two, you could have sold
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: at some decent profit in March. Same thing happening right now.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: That's why I'm saying, in a bullish case, the bottom's
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: in and we're gonna see new all time highs next.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: In a bearish case, the short terms bottom end, and
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: we're gonna have a nice relief balance according to this
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: historically great by signal.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Okay, so Tim, let's get into before we cutlas here
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: the basket you didn't like the basket we had, So
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: the basket for you, the tam basket of things to
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: hold as a defense mechanism into twenty twenty six. What
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: would those be asset wise?
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, deficially the number you're gonna have.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I could probably go as high as eight to ten coins,
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: but let me stick with maybe the top couple I
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: would say for sure would be in my basket. Number one,
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Ethereum. I think Ethereum is one
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: of the few alt coins seeing a lot of positive fundamentals.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: Along with that Solana, right, So both those layer one
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: solutions I would go with in my bag. You guys
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: know how I feel about shame Link. I think chain
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: link is gonna win no matter what cryptos win. If
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: crypto does well in the future, chain link will do well.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna start with those top three. Once you
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: start to expand out of those top three, there's a
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: lot of conversations that could be had. For example, I
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: could say XRP, and there's fundamental needs to say XRP.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: But you know, one of my biggest reasons say XRP
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: is because I think that Tradfi is going to be
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest injectors liquidity into this market. And
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: every time I come into contact with a friend of
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: mine who trades trad Fi, not crypto. The first crypto
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: they asked me about, not Ethereum or Solana. They've never
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: heard of chain link. They asked me about XRP, so
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: I think XRP could easily make its way into that
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: bag as well, and then of course you have some
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: other options. I still think SHOUI as potential. I think
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: that Ondo as bad as the chart looks, I think
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: fundamentally Ondo's up there as well. And then I have Aaro, Tao,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Avax and a handful of others. But if I was
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: to focus on this top three to four ethereum, Salona Shameley,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: XRP would be in that top group.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Very nice, very nice.
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: Listen.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I won't talk to you before Christmas, so Merry Christmas, Tim,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: you and your family, and again, thanks so much for
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: coming in on the show today.
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: We appreciate it absolutely Thanks for having me, Paul. You
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: bet all right.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: You guys know what to do. Make sure and join
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: our own private member group. You can do that by
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: just clicking the link down below. It's absolutely free, and
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: we drop additional research. I do a couple of emails
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: there each week. It all comes to you, and of
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: course you can follow me out there on ex at
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: the Paul Baron Show.