Latest / UK Column Radio / Trump Went to China Because America LOST Leverage | Silk and Steel

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Trump Went to China Because America LOST Leverage | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:02
Speaker 1: The man of the hour himself. I'm gonna bring him on.
0:07
Speaker 2: Carl Jah. What's going on, man?
0:10
Speaker 1: How you doing this morning?
0:11
Speaker 2: Well for you?
0:13
Speaker 1: How are you, sir? I'm doing okay, Carl. I'm doing
0:17
Speaker 1: okay man, But I am better that you are with me.
0:22
Speaker 1: We have Carl Shah, his host of Silk and Steel
0:24
Speaker 1: podcasts focused on China and surrounding regions and their history, culture,
0:28
Speaker 1: and politics. You can follow Carl on Twitter at Carl Shah.
0:31
Speaker 1: You can follow his podcast at Steal Silk in, and
0:36
Speaker 1: you can subscribe and support the podcast on Patreon dot com,
0:39
Speaker 1: slash Silk and Stealed. Carl has a fantastic show, Carl's
0:45
Speaker 1: Five thousand Years of Chinese History, which is just myn
0:48
Speaker 1: employing to me.
0:49
Speaker 2: Carl.
0:50
Speaker 1: Welcome man. I'm glad you could join me tonight. Obviously
0:54
Speaker 1: I brought you a lot because Trump goes to China,
0:59
Speaker 1: and I would go so far to say a diminished
1:01
Speaker 1: Trump goes China. What what do you think this conversation
1:08
Speaker 1: is ultimately going to be about? Like, meaning, what do
1:10
Speaker 1: you like? The United States is open? It has initiated
1:15
Speaker 1: open aggression around the globe, meaning the pretense of soft
1:19
Speaker 1: power is over low of the jungle. They've attacked the run.
1:24
Speaker 1: They were not able to pacify a run. Well simultaneously
1:27
Speaker 1: now also going to China, what do you think this
1:32
Speaker 1: conversation is ultimately ultimately about from sizing things in and
1:37
Speaker 1: from trump'son.
1:38
Speaker 2: Well, the funny thing is, you know, I first look
1:42
Speaker 2: at what China is reporting, right so before I said
1:46
Speaker 2: or I will wait until China confirms a visit. So
1:51
Speaker 2: China a few days ago they finally confirmed the visit,
1:55
Speaker 2: you know, just as the last minute. And then I
2:00
Speaker 2: opened the newspaper, you know, China's People's Day, China Daily,
2:05
Speaker 2: and their front page is Shiji Pink welcomes President from Tajikistan.
2:13
Speaker 2: So sign relationship is at the forefront, and then on
2:18
Speaker 2: the sideline on the side, off to the side, there's
2:22
Speaker 2: a column about, oh yeah, Trump is also coming, so
2:27
Speaker 2: you know, like you're not serious the president. So yeah,
2:37
Speaker 2: so it's just since uh, this might be a coincidence.
2:44
Speaker 2: But on CCTV six now they're certainly showing a TV
2:51
Speaker 2: series cow my grandson is coming from America. Now. Now
2:56
Speaker 2: for people who are not familiar, uh what you call
2:59
Speaker 2: you you say, call somebody swings the grandson especially when
3:03
Speaker 2: he's not your grandson. It's basically a term of insult
3:06
Speaker 2: in Chinese. He's like calling somebody a pussy. It's like
3:12
Speaker 2: but anyway, that might just be a coincidence, but people
3:15
Speaker 2: are fay. Some people are paying attentions, like WHOA, what's
3:18
Speaker 2: going on here? But anyway, So right now Trump is
3:24
Speaker 2: going to China with all the top executives of the
3:29
Speaker 2: United States, you know, La Musk and Jensen Huang, they're
3:33
Speaker 2: they're righting the air Force one with him. But there's
3:36
Speaker 2: also you know Tim Cook, which which trumping his true
3:42
Speaker 2: social post call him Tim Apple. Tim Apple is coming
3:47
Speaker 2: and uh and the head of Black Rot Goldman Sas Cargill. Uh.
3:54
Speaker 2: You know, basically who is who in US corporate world
3:58
Speaker 2: is going heading over to China with Trump. I think, uh,
4:02
Speaker 2: they're looking to deal. They're looking to do uh, to
4:06
Speaker 2: do business deal with China because they're finally come to realize,
4:11
Speaker 2: you know, decoupling from China is unrealistic, right they have
4:16
Speaker 2: they're they're they're very much dependent on China for everything,
4:21
Speaker 2: so that there will be I think that they're gonna
4:25
Speaker 2: probably sign some some business deal, like they're gonna make
4:28
Speaker 2: some announcement like China is gonna buy some soybeans, you know,
4:34
Speaker 2: And that's that sort of thing. And it's just an
4:37
Speaker 2: opportunity for Trump to post for a photo op and say, hey,
4:42
Speaker 2: we I I made peace with China. This is uh,
4:47
Speaker 2: I'm a peacemaker. Now give me novel peace price.
4:51
Speaker 1: Uh.
4:52
Speaker 2: I don't think there's much substance uh that that will
4:55
Speaker 2: be actually be iron out because they want you know,
4:59
Speaker 2: the thing that you United States want for China to
5:02
Speaker 2: lift is export control on rare earth, uh to US
5:07
Speaker 2: military industrial complex. But I don't see what US have
5:12
Speaker 2: to trade for it. It's a give and take relationship.
5:15
Speaker 2: So you want China to give you rare earth? What
5:18
Speaker 2: are you gonna give to China? What what are you
5:22
Speaker 2: bringing to the table? You know, I just don't see it.
5:25
Speaker 2: And uh so they're gonna probably gonna announce some deals
5:29
Speaker 2: like you know, maybe China will make buy some Boeing airplane,
5:33
Speaker 2: they will buy some soy beans, just just the normal stuff,
5:36
Speaker 2: something that Trump can claim to be a win you
5:40
Speaker 2: know back home. I think that's that's essentially gonna.
5:43
Speaker 1: Be what does want from Trump? That's the other interesting thing. Well,
5:47
Speaker 1: like I get Trump wants rare earths. I get he's
5:50
Speaker 1: taken all these people to make business deals and everything
5:52
Speaker 1: else like a sweetness, But what does Ping want out
5:56
Speaker 1: of this?
5:58
Speaker 2: Jiping just want Trump to be norm normal man. I mean,
6:01
Speaker 2: like Chi famously said. This was before Chi became president
6:06
Speaker 2: of China. I think it was in twenty eleven or
6:11
Speaker 2: around that time, when Chijin Pin was traveling to Mexico
6:15
Speaker 2: as the vice president of China at that time, and
6:18
Speaker 2: he gave a speech. He said, what do they want
6:21
Speaker 2: from us? He said in Chinese? Of course, I'm just
6:23
Speaker 2: paraphrasing English. He said, what do they want from us?
6:26
Speaker 2: You know we don't want We don't export revolution, we
6:30
Speaker 2: don't export poverty or hunger. Well, you know, what the heck?
6:36
Speaker 2: What what the heck do they want from us? We
6:38
Speaker 2: are not causing trouble for you guys? Why are you
6:42
Speaker 2: making it hard for us? Like Chijinping just won Trump
6:45
Speaker 2: to take a chill pill, you know, just relax and
6:49
Speaker 2: and also stop this madness in the in the straight
6:53
Speaker 2: or her moves, because that's not doing anybody any favors.
6:58
Speaker 2: But but I I just don't see how Trump even
7:02
Speaker 2: can deliver on that, because you know that war. It's
7:06
Speaker 2: not you know, it's not like Trump is not in
7:11
Speaker 2: the driver's seat anymore. And it's not up to Trump
7:14
Speaker 2: to end that war on his his terms because likely
7:19
Speaker 2: or not, you're wrong. You're wrong. It's not looking for
7:22
Speaker 2: simple ceasefires and looking for a permanent peace settlement. But
7:26
Speaker 2: their terms that Trump just rejected, their terms. You know,
7:30
Speaker 2: you run laid out their terms. Hey, accept our control
7:33
Speaker 2: strad or homose left the sanctions and allow us to
7:39
Speaker 2: to to export our oil and and oh yeah, and
7:43
Speaker 2: also you need to get out of your military basis
7:46
Speaker 2: around and petty reparations and and by the way, United
7:52
Speaker 2: States is spending about two billion dollars a day a
7:56
Speaker 2: day in this in this operation. So so the month
8:00
Speaker 2: that you United States already spend and the month that
8:03
Speaker 2: will continue to spend is less than the preparation reparation
8:09
Speaker 2: that you're wrong is requesting. It's far more cheaper just
8:12
Speaker 2: to pay you wrong off right now, to say, hey, sorry,
8:16
Speaker 2: this is the reparation. Let's let's let's end it. No no, no,
8:19
Speaker 2: they're they're gonna drag it out. I think they're gonna
8:21
Speaker 2: drag it out. It's gonna be and the far more expensive.
8:25
Speaker 2: But you know what, that's okay because all that money
8:28
Speaker 2: spend is going through the pocket of the military contractors,
8:32
Speaker 2: which is what the war is designed for. It's designed
8:36
Speaker 2: for their profit. And also it's great for the big
8:39
Speaker 2: oil because shall just reported their first earning reports, They
8:44
Speaker 2: just double their profit from last quarter. Shall just double
8:49
Speaker 2: their earnings and this this, this only covers the first quarter,
8:53
Speaker 2: you know that, like not even like included January February
8:59
Speaker 2: before the war even started. So is that which means
9:03
Speaker 2: their next quarter earning report even you've got to be
9:07
Speaker 2: more gang craft busters. I mean, it's great for them.
9:09
Speaker 2: It's great for the oil majors who actually funk tromp
9:14
Speaker 2: and which is you know, so that it works. It
9:17
Speaker 2: works for them, But it's the rest of us that
9:20
Speaker 2: actually have to pay for it because we actually have
9:22
Speaker 2: to pay at the gas pump for the price increase.
9:27
Speaker 1: By the way, it's not just the gas pump. If
9:29
Speaker 1: you're buying anything baby formula, cereal, toilet paper, I mean
9:34
Speaker 1: all of those things require energy to make, which means
9:37
Speaker 1: all of those things is more expensive. Even taking toilet
9:40
Speaker 1: paper from the place that made it cost energy, like
9:44
Speaker 1: meaning all of the stuff in the process, Yeah, gets
9:48
Speaker 1: more expensive as a direct result. So yeah, they make
9:51
Speaker 1: more money. All of us get poorer, like deeply and
9:55
Speaker 1: completely poorer. And Trump doesn't seem to care.
9:59
Speaker 2: But but Jamar, that's not that's not a bug, that's
10:03
Speaker 2: a future. That's my design. That's how American system works.
10:10
Speaker 2: It's take the money for the poor and give it
10:12
Speaker 2: to the rich.
10:14
Speaker 1: And that's what he's doing. And when they asked him
10:16
Speaker 1: about it, it's like, hey, inflation has gone up.
10:20
Speaker 2: And by the way, stock market, Jamar, look at the
10:22
Speaker 2: stock market, star.
10:24
Speaker 1: Markets, that's what he said. The stockwracket is doing great,
10:30
Speaker 1: Stockwaker's doing great. And they two presented the American public
10:32
Speaker 1: that's in it is making a ton of money. The
10:36
Speaker 1: other thing, I had a guess one the other day,
10:39
Speaker 1: Doctor Jeff Ridge and doctor Rich made a point, and
10:44
Speaker 1: I think it's a good point. He said, why is
10:46
Speaker 1: China engaging with Trump in the middle of the war
10:51
Speaker 1: of aggression that the United States implemented? And I think
10:54
Speaker 1: his point was, Look, China may not necessarily want to
10:58
Speaker 1: be a Hedgemond, but they look like I had Jamon,
11:01
Speaker 1: And I don't mean this in a sense of I'm
11:04
Speaker 1: trying to take over the world. I don't mean it
11:06
Speaker 1: in that sense. I just mean in the sense of
11:09
Speaker 1: industrial capacity, military capacity, scientific and technological capacity, help on
11:14
Speaker 1: issues of AI, on issues of weapons systems, all of
11:17
Speaker 1: those things. China is astonishingly proficient and huge, to the
11:25
Speaker 1: point where they're very clear to the US we're equals.
11:28
Speaker 1: We're not taking a back seat to you. We are equals.
11:31
Speaker 1: You're going to regard us as such.
11:33
Speaker 2: Period.
11:34
Speaker 1: And his thing was like, Okay, if you're going to
11:37
Speaker 1: do that and play that role, why are you engaging
11:40
Speaker 1: with the United States as it tries to destroy one
11:43
Speaker 1: of the partners in bricks and in basically organizations that
11:48
Speaker 1: China is in close association with.
11:50
Speaker 2: Why is it mart don't you don't make paced always friends? True,
11:57
Speaker 2: you don't make P s D always friends you. You
12:00
Speaker 2: you negotiate with your enemies. You. But but China, what
12:05
Speaker 2: China is always said the door remains open, the door
12:11
Speaker 2: always open. And China said a long time ago, the
12:15
Speaker 2: world is big enough for both China and United States.
12:19
Speaker 2: It's it's unite. US is resisting that that world view.
12:23
Speaker 2: You know, for US, especially the Washington elite, the only
12:27
Speaker 2: believing the zero sum competition. You know, for them for
12:31
Speaker 2: us to win, everyone else has us. Right. The only
12:34
Speaker 2: kind of competition they believe in is the towny of
12:37
Speaker 2: heart and style competition where they get to kneecap the competitors.
12:43
Speaker 2: Uh that's a problem, right, that's a problem. But China
12:47
Speaker 2: keep holding the door open, Uh, to to to hope
12:52
Speaker 2: for the United States will finally come to come to reason. Uh,
12:57
Speaker 2: We're gonna have to see whether that, you know, we
13:02
Speaker 2: remaintained to be seeing whether US really will come to
13:06
Speaker 2: their census. It's very interesting development recently because there were
13:10
Speaker 2: two articles first by Robert Kagan in at Robert Robert
13:17
Speaker 2: Kagan the guy the ultimate Neo Kong cheerleader. Right, there's
13:21
Speaker 2: no war that he didn't like. He's the guy who
13:24
Speaker 2: you know, was ahead of the Center for American what
13:27
Speaker 2: is it, the Center for American Centry or.
13:32
Speaker 1: American Century.
13:34
Speaker 2: Project for America. And he's a he's a husband to
13:38
Speaker 2: Victoria Newly, Right, he is like in the dead center
13:44
Speaker 2: of all those Neo Kong think tank complex And he
13:49
Speaker 2: recently wrote an article where he argued United States basically
13:57
Speaker 2: the US loss of war. Yeah, check iran, checkmate if
14:02
Speaker 2: you're they got checkmate. In Iran. And this is not
14:05
Speaker 2: a war that US can easily recover from. And you
14:10
Speaker 2: know that that that's surprising, Actually, that's surprising. These these
14:15
Speaker 2: warmongers who have been peddling war for all these years
14:18
Speaker 2: are finally recognizing, holy crap, you know, we may have
14:23
Speaker 2: screwed up. And and and more recently there's another article
14:28
Speaker 2: by Max Boot, you know, another warmonger, monger and cheerleader.
14:34
Speaker 2: Max Boot just interview a former CIA analyst John Kover,
14:39
Speaker 2: and which he talked about this possibility, the scenario of
14:45
Speaker 2: a war with China, and John Kover just said, hey, look,
14:50
Speaker 2: you know, like the most realistic scenario if ship hits
14:55
Speaker 2: a fan over Taiwe straight is the United States would
14:59
Speaker 2: get the hell out. They will flee because you know,
15:02
Speaker 2: like just like how United States evacuated their basis in
15:06
Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf when the war after the war was wrong, right,
15:10
Speaker 2: all the top like he said, all the top priority,
15:15
Speaker 2: the top high priority acid will be moved out of
15:20
Speaker 2: the theater, especially stuff like aircraft carriers because they will
15:25
Speaker 2: be sitting ducks and they don't want to lose any
15:27
Speaker 2: of those high priority acid to the Chinese missile broges.
15:32
Speaker 2: So which means you're gonna have to fight a war
15:36
Speaker 2: a thousand miles away. You know, I don't know how
15:39
Speaker 2: they're gonna do that, but that's what he's said. Realistically
15:44
Speaker 2: will happen. And this is coming from straight from the
15:47
Speaker 2: horse's mouth, you know, CIA analysts. So I think there's
15:50
Speaker 2: there's now increasing realization that the United States will not
15:55
Speaker 2: be able to take on China. I mean, like the
15:58
Speaker 2: whole fantasy of containing in China or or provoking China
16:03
Speaker 2: into a war over Pacific, that's just that's just fantasy.
16:08
Speaker 2: You know, it's not realistic. You know, given given what
16:11
Speaker 2: what went down in the Persian got uh, you know
16:14
Speaker 2: the last couple of months, US cannot take it on.
16:16
Speaker 2: You around forget about China, just just to forget about it.
16:19
Speaker 2: So I think this is the positive optimistic me want
16:25
Speaker 2: to think that, you know, the Trump going to China
16:30
Speaker 2: is because at least some part of Washington really have
16:34
Speaker 2: to have recognized that they have to come to terms
16:38
Speaker 2: with their limitation and make some kind of deal. But
16:43
Speaker 2: you know that that is my hole. But but but
16:45
Speaker 2: but I think most likely it's just gonna be a
16:48
Speaker 2: photo op and there will be some fluff deals throughout
16:52
Speaker 2: the way by you know, China's pledge is gonna buy
16:55
Speaker 2: some soil, being some some Boeing airplanes, and then Trump
16:59
Speaker 2: will claim he's no about peace prize. That's about it.
17:01
Speaker 2: I just don't just like, just like the whole Uron negotiation,
17:08
Speaker 2: there's such wide perception golf between two sides, like like
17:14
Speaker 2: the demand are just too incompatible. I mean, the Chinese
17:19
Speaker 2: demand is actually very simple. Let's just like, you know,
17:23
Speaker 2: get off your high forces about you know, world domination
17:27
Speaker 2: and stuff. It's just sit down and do business. But
17:30
Speaker 2: you know, I just like I said, this is it's working.
17:33
Speaker 2: It's working. It's everything is working as planned. The military
17:37
Speaker 2: industrial complex is making a lot of money. Big oils
17:40
Speaker 2: are making a lot of money, and those are the
17:42
Speaker 2: ones who found Trump's government, and so everything is going
17:49
Speaker 2: perfectly according to the plan. You know, hy deviate.
17:53
Speaker 1: No, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to rupt. I'm sorry,
17:56
Speaker 1: I didn't mean it was a leg. There was a
17:58
Speaker 1: slight leg. Patri had finished this statement, please finish.
18:02
Speaker 2: No, no, go ahead, I'm done.
18:04
Speaker 1: Well I was gonna ask, but okay, in this meeting,
18:09
Speaker 1: you pointed out that China you negotiate with your enemies
18:13
Speaker 1: not your friends, true agreed. Will China push Trump on
18:18
Speaker 1: the Iran issue? I mean because look, the reason why
18:22
Speaker 1: Maxim's question is a lot of people who look at
18:25
Speaker 1: bricks think to themselves that bricks is some kind of
18:27
Speaker 1: ideological organization. I don't think that's true. I think I'm
18:31
Speaker 1: more cynical about it. I think it's I think countries
18:33
Speaker 1: work in their own interests, and in the context of bricks,
18:36
Speaker 1: they found that that interest was united in the sense China, India, Iran, Russia, etc.
18:46
Speaker 1: Iran is instrumental to China and Russia security in this case,
18:51
Speaker 1: and the US is effectively abrazenly attacking this country, just
18:57
Speaker 1: brazen war of aggression. In this case, Trump is in
19:01
Speaker 1: China talking to Zjing Pin. Does Jing Pin negotiate with
19:07
Speaker 1: Trump on the issue of Iran? Does run that matter
19:10
Speaker 1: in the context of whatever negotiations is going on with Trump.
19:14
Speaker 2: I think I think that will definitely bring up Iran because,
19:17
Speaker 2: first of all, the the thing that China hate most
19:22
Speaker 2: is instability. Now China want to do business, man, the
19:25
Speaker 2: war is bad for business. You know, it's good for
19:29
Speaker 2: military industrial complex and big oil, but it's bad for
19:32
Speaker 2: the kind of business that China is engaged in. China
19:36
Speaker 2: has a lot of investment all about West Asia. China
19:40
Speaker 2: has a lot of investments in UAE and right now
19:44
Speaker 2: Ua is getting the brunt of the Uranian missile broches.
19:49
Speaker 2: So China would very much like to see the blockade
19:54
Speaker 2: lifted in straight or homos because you know, China do
19:58
Speaker 2: still want to get energy from from the Gulf. You
20:03
Speaker 2: know that that area used to produce twenty million barrels
20:08
Speaker 2: of oil per day. Right now only about five million
20:12
Speaker 2: barrels per day is still making out through the Saudi
20:15
Speaker 2: pipeline and maybe the UAE pipeline and uh, so China
20:20
Speaker 2: would like to see the production oil production back to
20:24
Speaker 2: the pre war level. And China like to continue to
20:29
Speaker 2: restore its trade relationship with the region, which this war
20:34
Speaker 2: is uh is not helping. So so in that aspect,
20:38
Speaker 2: China has a self interest too to work behind the
20:43
Speaker 2: scenes to you know, to bring this wark to a resolution.
20:47
Speaker 2: So so you know, Yuran will definitely be be brought up.
20:50
Speaker 2: But like I said, you know, China really like to
20:54
Speaker 2: work behind the scene. They usally don't non stuff until
20:58
Speaker 2: it's already in the bag.
21:00
Speaker 1: Uh.
21:00
Speaker 2: So we you know, like they just just like they
21:05
Speaker 2: they only announced that Trump confirmed the Trump visit at
21:09
Speaker 2: the last moment. You know, they want to be absolutely sure,
21:13
Speaker 2: so we might not know for for a while, you know,
21:17
Speaker 2: to to get official confirmation. But I'm pretty sure you
21:21
Speaker 2: know you're wrong. It won't be one of the subjects
21:23
Speaker 2: they will be discussing in this visit.
21:27
Speaker 1: Well, I guess the interesting part to this is will
21:31
Speaker 1: Iran pushed will Trump push? Or Okay, well Trump pushed
21:36
Speaker 1: China on Iran, or Iran pushed Trump or I'm saying this?
21:42
Speaker 2: Well, okay, I think, well, I know what you're saying,
21:45
Speaker 2: because you know, US have repeatedly asked China help hope
21:51
Speaker 2: and constrain our own moods, you know, like China didn't
21:55
Speaker 2: even respond to that, you know, because it's just so ridiculous, China,
22:00
Speaker 2: did you offer an official response? Because look, I mean,
22:05
Speaker 2: this is this is a problem that US brought out
22:08
Speaker 2: by by the illegal attack on right on Iran. So
22:14
Speaker 2: Trump China want to see China want to see a resolution.
22:18
Speaker 2: But this is also why the Iranian foreign minister went
22:22
Speaker 2: to Beijing just before the Trump visit, and then Putin
22:26
Speaker 2: is coming after Trump. So I think there's a coordination
22:30
Speaker 2: among China, Iran, and Russia on how to deal with
22:35
Speaker 2: the United States on this issue. And so far, you know,
22:39
Speaker 2: the official position of China is that they support Iran
22:43
Speaker 2: in safeguarding its territory integrity, and it's support Iran on
22:50
Speaker 2: acts of self defense and and so so you know,
22:55
Speaker 2: obviously China, China backs Iran in this. But what United
22:58
Speaker 2: States want China to do? Who is like, you know,
23:00
Speaker 2: cut off stop purchasing oil, phone your runs, cutting off
23:05
Speaker 2: the so called do you use parts to your round
23:09
Speaker 2: that can be used to make jones and missiles? Yeah? Again,
23:15
Speaker 2: you're asking all these things. It's nice to ask what
23:18
Speaker 2: do you have? What? What? What are you offering? Man?
23:20
Speaker 2: What are you offering? But what does the United States
23:23
Speaker 2: have to offer to China at this point? So yeah,
23:27
Speaker 2: so I it's it's just not realistic. And especially you know,
23:31
Speaker 2: I know what United to will do because because right
23:33
Speaker 2: before this visit, US Treasury Department plays sanctioned on five
23:38
Speaker 2: Chinese oil refiners. Yeah take yeah for taking your running oil.
23:43
Speaker 2: So Trump I say, okay, if you help us, we'll
23:47
Speaker 2: take off the we'll talk take off the sanction. This
23:50
Speaker 2: is how Trump would like to negotiate. But I don't
23:53
Speaker 2: think Chiho will five that. That's that stuff. It's like, no, man,
23:57
Speaker 2: you you you you you raise a sanction and and
24:00
Speaker 2: you take away the sanction, and then now you're acting
24:02
Speaker 2: like you're doing us a favor. I mean, that's bullshit, man.
24:06
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't think that will work.
24:09
Speaker 1: Well. Some people made the point of saying Taiwan that
24:12
Speaker 1: the US will, let's say, lead pressure on Taiwan, pull
24:15
Speaker 1: the troops out of Taiwan, or stop sending in the
24:17
Speaker 1: missiles or something like that. Would that be something?
24:22
Speaker 2: First of all, what what can United States offer Taiwan.
24:27
Speaker 2: It's not even a it's it's Taiwan is not United
24:32
Speaker 2: States to give in the first place, right, I mean,
24:35
Speaker 2: and and and and polling troops. US military presence is
24:39
Speaker 2: actually minimal in Taiwan right now. Before Nixon, before Nixon
24:45
Speaker 2: visit to China, US used to station nuclear tip missiles
24:50
Speaker 2: in Taiwan aimed to our mainland, China. And they used
24:54
Speaker 2: to have they used to have uh, you know, sixty
24:59
Speaker 2: thousand the US troops rotated through Taiwan, you know, during
25:03
Speaker 2: the Vietnam War era. But it's it's right now, it's
25:06
Speaker 2: it's almost nothing. They have like like uh, you know,
25:10
Speaker 2: maybe they have like a few dozen marines right now
25:14
Speaker 2: in uh in the safeguarding the soul called American Embassy
25:19
Speaker 2: on Taiwan, the American Institute on Taiwan, and they have
25:22
Speaker 2: some a few dozen special forces like green Braid on
25:26
Speaker 2: the Kiddan Island. But that that's about it. That's that's
25:28
Speaker 2: like that's like peanuts, man, that's it doesn't even move
25:32
Speaker 2: a needle, you will, like like those those those those
25:37
Speaker 2: so so again United States is can can reasonably offer
25:43
Speaker 2: anything on Taiwan, you know, because all they can offer
25:49
Speaker 2: is a promise, a promise US will not push for
25:53
Speaker 2: Taiwan independence or US but like, yeah, that that that
26:00
Speaker 2: promise from Trumpet administration does It's not worth the paper
26:04
Speaker 2: is written now, man, it's like what and maybe the
26:09
Speaker 2: US can say we can stop arm sales to Taiwan,
26:13
Speaker 2: but again, those things they can be reversed very quickly. Uh.
26:18
Speaker 2: This is not something you trade like tangible goods like
26:22
Speaker 2: rare earth export for something that they promise maybe they
26:27
Speaker 2: won't do in the future. You know. Yeah. Now I
26:32
Speaker 2: want to.
26:33
Speaker 1: Hit a larger issue, and it has to do with
26:35
Speaker 1: this kind of rank militarism, this idea of the world
26:42
Speaker 1: as a grand chessboard in the most over sense of
26:45
Speaker 1: the term, where it's a game of thrones, where it's
26:48
Speaker 1: okay for countries to attack randomly other countries. Like meaning,
26:53
Speaker 1: this is not even like the US knocking over Ukraine
26:58
Speaker 1: and you're using Ukraine as a veteran to go after it.
27:01
Speaker 1: This is US just using neked militarism on the global stage,
27:06
Speaker 1: where like, how does China. I know China wants stability,
27:11
Speaker 1: fair enough, but how do they regard this as new normal?
27:15
Speaker 1: I mean, even the attack on Ukraine was at the
27:18
Speaker 1: very least used in the lens of okay, well, Russia
27:22
Speaker 1: attack first, and so now we can use propaganda in
27:25
Speaker 1: order to justify whatever we do against Russia. Even when
27:30
Speaker 1: George Bush was in office, George Bush used webs of
27:33
Speaker 1: master destruction and at the very least went through the
27:36
Speaker 1: formal mechanisms to try to pretend as if this was
27:40
Speaker 1: something real. This is justnicked militarism, whether it's against Venezuela,
27:45
Speaker 1: whether it gets Iran, whether it gets Yemen. Does this
27:49
Speaker 1: China feel some kind of way about that?
27:51
Speaker 2: Like meaning do they well? I mean, I mean I mean,
27:53
Speaker 2: there's a reason jamar, that China is building up his military.
27:57
Speaker 2: I mean, China is is our is rolling out the
28:01
Speaker 2: largest military build up, uh, the world has ever seen. That.
28:05
Speaker 2: They're they're they're they're making they're making warship like like
28:10
Speaker 2: making dumplings. And there's a reason that US Navy is
28:15
Speaker 2: really nervous about being surpassed by the Chinese Navy's capabilities.
28:22
Speaker 2: And also the Chinese nuclear arsenal well, according to the CIA,
28:26
Speaker 2: I don't know anything, you know, I don't know any
28:28
Speaker 2: inside information, but according to the CIA, the Chinese nuclear
28:32
Speaker 2: arsenal is set to surpass one thousand nuclear warheads by
28:37
Speaker 2: twenty thirty. I mean, all this is because China knows
28:42
Speaker 2: that they need to build deterrent against the American militarism.
28:47
Speaker 2: You know, like like for a long time, China main
28:50
Speaker 2: thing about three hundred to four hundred warheads, but apparently
28:55
Speaker 2: they realize, Okay, that's not enough. We need more coverage,
28:58
Speaker 2: we need to cover more US cities. We need we
29:01
Speaker 2: need have maybe like a thousand or fifteen hundred nuclear warheads.
29:06
Speaker 2: And and they're also continually to building up their navy,
29:11
Speaker 2: you know, like I don't so yeah, so so so.
29:14
Speaker 2: Right now, China do not have power projection, the same
29:21
Speaker 2: same level of power projection into Indian Ocean like the
29:25
Speaker 2: US Navy does. But who knows, Who knows what happens
29:29
Speaker 2: in ten fifteen years, because right now, you know, China
29:32
Speaker 2: is going through a very rapid a naval build up.
29:38
Speaker 2: They're they're they're already building their next aircraft carrier, nuclear power. Yeah,
29:46
Speaker 2: from your.
29:46
Speaker 1: Point of view, is it just that China things that? Yeah,
29:50
Speaker 1: the US is galivan around the globe. The US is
29:53
Speaker 1: setting fires and various places that disadvantaged us by the
29:58
Speaker 1: same togan. If we get ten years, they can't touch us.
30:03
Speaker 1: Is that the thought that for all of its purposes,
30:06
Speaker 1: we don't have to be aggressive, We don't have to
30:08
Speaker 1: be over the top. The US is making mistakes, and
30:11
Speaker 1: we're letting them make their mistakes, and within dinner fifteen years, militarily,
30:15
Speaker 1: they won't be able to touches. Industrially, they won't be
30:17
Speaker 1: a bit touches. Technologically, they won't be able to touch it.
30:20
Speaker 1: Is that the thought that time is just on their side.
30:24
Speaker 2: Time is on China side. Yeah, I mean, it's it's obvious.
30:28
Speaker 2: Every year is every year that passes, the power of
30:32
Speaker 2: balance favors China because the Chinese power, both the Chinese
30:39
Speaker 2: economic power together with Chinese military power, is growing at
30:44
Speaker 2: a rate that was much faster. So so the longer
30:47
Speaker 2: the time passes, the stronger Chinese position will be. Like
30:51
Speaker 2: like I said, like why go you know, like people
30:56
Speaker 2: Americans keep on saying China is going to do something
30:59
Speaker 2: to Taiwan tony twenty seven, I'm saying, why not twenty thirty,
31:03
Speaker 2: when Chinese forces will be even stronger. They will have
31:07
Speaker 2: six generation aircraft covering the skies, and they will have
31:12
Speaker 2: over one thousand nuclear warheads, and then they will even
31:15
Speaker 2: have you they'll have an additional aircraft carrier strike group.
31:19
Speaker 2: You know, so there will be much more powerful if
31:22
Speaker 2: they just have to wait a few more years. So
31:24
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, definitely times on China's side. This is
31:27
Speaker 2: what China always play for the long game, right, They're
31:30
Speaker 2: not there. This is why you know a lot of
31:32
Speaker 2: people say, oh, right now, it's a perfect opportunity for
31:35
Speaker 2: China to strike out against Taiwan. No, no, no, like
31:38
Speaker 2: China is just waiting for Taiwan to fall into its lap.
31:42
Speaker 2: Like they're not. They're not gonna respond to like opportunistically
31:48
Speaker 2: to to do something like that. China is still executing
31:52
Speaker 2: its own plan on its own schedule.
31:56
Speaker 1: What do you say to people who said that they
31:58
Speaker 1: want China to be a little bit more busterous in
32:01
Speaker 1: the world.
32:02
Speaker 2: If look, man, look, look, I know, I know, I know,
32:08
Speaker 2: I understand. I'm responding to that that type of like
32:11
Speaker 2: China and the United States are nuclear power. Okay, it's
32:15
Speaker 2: actually good that China is not so easily provoked, right,
32:20
Speaker 2: and they, like you do not want a conflict, the
32:23
Speaker 2: direct kinetic conflict being two nuclear power that don't end
32:27
Speaker 2: well for all of us. So so it's actually a
32:31
Speaker 2: good thing that China is being the reasonable adults in
32:35
Speaker 2: the room and says, you know, calm the fuck down,
32:38
Speaker 2: United States, you know, like we let let's let's talk
32:41
Speaker 2: of like reasonable people. Then then then they they're raising
32:45
Speaker 2: like a thread of war because you know, like like
32:49
Speaker 2: I said, this is not it's not gonna end well
32:51
Speaker 2: for but not just chin people in China or people
32:55
Speaker 2: in the United States. You know, like if if a
32:58
Speaker 2: World War three that it possible involved in nuclear exchange,
33:02
Speaker 2: that will and that would be bad for all of us, everybody,
33:06
Speaker 2: you know, like that that would be the break of
33:09
Speaker 2: the global economy. Uh, not to mention, you know, possibility
33:13
Speaker 2: of nuclear winter and nuclear file. So yeah, so so
33:17
Speaker 2: so so right now, China's position, which which you know,
33:22
Speaker 2: maybe a lot of people are not happy with it,
33:26
Speaker 2: but that's what's keeping us from getting blown up to
33:30
Speaker 2: the Kingdom com right now.
33:32
Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, they make the same arguments against Russia,
33:37
Speaker 1: I mean effectively saying, you know, they want Russia to
33:41
Speaker 1: do more, they want Russia to be more bus et cetera,
33:43
Speaker 1: et cetera. I think what they want is a counterbalance.
33:46
Speaker 1: And I think what people are looking for is the
33:49
Speaker 1: US has lost its mind and has gone rogue. And
33:53
Speaker 1: they think to themselves, how do you strain the rogue
33:56
Speaker 1: superpower that is attacking other countries, stealing leaders and throwing
34:01
Speaker 1: them in gulags, and seems to be completely unrestrained in
34:05
Speaker 1: regards of their activities and their behavior around the globe,
34:08
Speaker 1: even to the point of destroying the global economy. And
34:12
Speaker 1: they say to themselves, what is the hedge against us?
34:16
Speaker 1: And they look out and they see Russia, China, Roun
34:20
Speaker 1: and I think from many people's standpoint, they look at
34:24
Speaker 1: it and say they want the countries to effectively function
34:28
Speaker 1: as a balance to the behavior of the United States
34:33
Speaker 1: around the globe. I think to your point, yeah, but
34:36
Speaker 1: that may be a war, that may start a war.
34:40
Speaker 1: But I don't think those people are looking at it
34:41
Speaker 1: in terms of war. I think they're looking at it
34:43
Speaker 1: in terms of either economics, either sanctions, something as a
34:51
Speaker 1: way of trying to restrain US behavior that seems to
34:54
Speaker 1: be completely uncouth and just unmoored from not just a
35:00
Speaker 1: kind of law, but reality itself. I think that's what
35:03
Speaker 1: they're looking for.
35:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I I Unfortunately I don't. I just don't
35:09
Speaker 2: see a coordinated I mean I talked to I talked
35:12
Speaker 2: to in our tangan recently. The einar said, you know,
35:16
Speaker 2: all the countries in the world just must come together
35:18
Speaker 2: for a coalition and threaten economic sanction against US if
35:23
Speaker 2: it persists in to be a petulant child, uh throwing tantrums.
35:29
Speaker 2: But I just I just don't see that that coordinated
35:33
Speaker 2: action as realistic. You know, every every country is right now,
35:38
Speaker 2: is out there trying to like get the best for itself,
35:43
Speaker 2: right like, Like, I just don't see a coordinated action
35:47
Speaker 2: as possible. But but but to that vein, I you know,
35:50
Speaker 2: I don't do like dress because I currently live in Bali, Indonesia.
35:54
Speaker 2: There a lot of people say, hey, what the heck
35:56
Speaker 2: is why is he Indonesia working out a deal with
35:59
Speaker 2: United States allow access to airspace and stuff. First of all,
36:03
Speaker 2: that was a request from United States to Indonesia while
36:07
Speaker 2: the Indonesian Defense minister was visiting Washington. But it's not
36:12
Speaker 2: been that has not been approved because apparently when the
36:18
Speaker 2: Indonesian Defense minister traveled to Washington, the Indonesian Foreign ministers
36:22
Speaker 2: sending a message says, do not sign it. Do not
36:25
Speaker 2: sign it. This is bad for us, do not sign it.
36:29
Speaker 2: So but anyway, so so Indonesia. Also there are uh,
36:34
Speaker 2: you know, playing a balancing game, like people are asking
36:38
Speaker 2: one or the other pro Us or pro China. No,
36:40
Speaker 2: they're just pro Indonesia man like like every country should
36:43
Speaker 2: should do, be like pro their own interests. So a
36:45
Speaker 2: lot of the countries in Southeast Asia, Southeast Asia, they
36:49
Speaker 2: want to be they don't want to be dragged into
36:51
Speaker 2: a conflict. They want to be you know, their their
36:55
Speaker 2: policy is to be friends, to awe an enemy to
36:58
Speaker 2: low to now they don't want to pick a side. Right,
37:01
Speaker 2: it's United States that's really actively try to drag people
37:06
Speaker 2: to pick a side, saying you're US with US or
37:08
Speaker 2: against US, and and and you know, the South East
37:12
Speaker 2: Asian countries are doing their most not to pick that side.
37:16
Speaker 2: It so like, nah, we can let's just be friends
37:19
Speaker 2: and let let's be friends and continue trading. So yeah,
37:23
Speaker 2: so I I nothing really has changed, uh in that
37:27
Speaker 2: regard in Southeast Asia. This this is always it's always
37:32
Speaker 2: a balancing act among South East Asian countries. And Uh.
37:37
Speaker 2: But but again, what you're talking about, or what I
37:41
Speaker 2: R had talked about, I just I just don't see it.
37:45
Speaker 2: I just don't see I just don't see a coordinated
37:47
Speaker 2: action possible. You know, like US was able to impose
37:53
Speaker 2: sanctions on other countries, this mostly because US are able
37:58
Speaker 2: to whip it's vascals in line. I'm talking about the
38:02
Speaker 2: European countries, you know, Japan, South Korea, et cetera. These
38:07
Speaker 2: countries US keep on a very tight leiche. You just
38:11
Speaker 2: don't have the same kind of dynamic among the other side,
38:15
Speaker 2: among the bricks, like the relationship between bricks countries, not
38:20
Speaker 2: like the relationship of US VERSUS European countries or or
38:26
Speaker 2: you know, it's not like Russia and China, is like
38:29
Speaker 2: whipping those other countries in shape to follow their to
38:33
Speaker 2: follow in language, their their their foreign policy goes uh.
38:37
Speaker 2: You know, the whole point of polarity, multipolarity is that
38:41
Speaker 2: each Indian, each individual country should be should be able
38:45
Speaker 2: to pursue their own independent foreign policy for their own
38:49
Speaker 2: own ends, not to you know, to to to be
38:53
Speaker 2: a mere follower. So yeah, I don't I don't see
38:57
Speaker 2: I don't see it because of that, I don't see
38:59
Speaker 2: a core needed action possible.
39:01
Speaker 1: Well, while I accept that a lot of people will say,
39:08
Speaker 1: then what's the point of bricks? Meaning that Trump, out
39:13
Speaker 1: of all the presidents, have made a specific interest in
39:17
Speaker 1: going after bricks. I mean he's in fact, if I'm
39:19
Speaker 1: not misaken, he's the only one. He's even named bricks like,
39:22
Speaker 1: meaning he's the only one that has bought bricks up
39:24
Speaker 1: as an issue. And what has he done. He's gone
39:27
Speaker 1: after Brazil, he's gone after India. I mean, he's slapped
39:30
Speaker 1: the hell out of India with actions after being mad
39:34
Speaker 1: at Russia, effectively saying we don't want you to buy
39:37
Speaker 1: their oil, so we're going to hit you, but we're
39:38
Speaker 1: not going to do anything to China for obvious reasons, right,
39:41
Speaker 1: like meaning, he's making a concerted effort to go after
39:44
Speaker 1: each and every one of these countries that are a
39:47
Speaker 1: part of bricks and is doing so maliciously and in
39:52
Speaker 1: clear terms, like meaning, he knows who his enemy is.
39:55
Speaker 1: He knows that the dollar is losing strength in regardless
40:01
Speaker 1: to the world currencies and everything else. He knows the stuff.
40:04
Speaker 1: And I guess my thought is, won't bricks have to
40:08
Speaker 1: get their shit together? I don't know another word for it,
40:12
Speaker 1: in the sense of they're coming after us. He's trying
40:15
Speaker 1: to destroy us, and he's picking us off individually. But
40:23
Speaker 1: I don't know.
40:23
Speaker 2: It just seems like I think I think there might
40:27
Speaker 2: be I mean, this is why the President Lula of
40:31
Speaker 2: Brazil is pushing for, like bricks common currency, right he
40:35
Speaker 2: openly talked about it. We need to find an alternative
40:38
Speaker 2: to us hours as we reserve currency. But again I
40:43
Speaker 2: even that, I don't you know, India is against it.
40:48
Speaker 2: India is against it, right, So uh yeah, this is
40:53
Speaker 2: this is the reason I said, I just don't see
40:55
Speaker 2: coordinated action possible because there are too many the separate
41:01
Speaker 2: interest you know, like there are too many parties that
41:04
Speaker 2: have their own end goals, and it's not like the
41:10
Speaker 2: Natal Alliance where it's just US says jump and everybody
41:15
Speaker 2: says how high. Uh so, yeah, you know, I mean
41:19
Speaker 2: US did not just go after going after Brazil and India,
41:23
Speaker 2: but they also went after South Africa, you know, for
41:26
Speaker 2: the bogus white geno size supposedly. Yeah. Yeah so, but
41:32
Speaker 2: I I just unless all these countries get pushed against
41:37
Speaker 2: the wall, I don't see like like a counter sanctioned
41:44
Speaker 2: reaching possible.
41:47
Speaker 1: That's unfortunate. That's just unfortunate. I mean, and pushed against
41:51
Speaker 1: the wall. Iran is literally at war with America. Russia
41:56
Speaker 1: is literally at war with America. In this case, China
42:02
Speaker 1: has made to avoid war because America I think it's
42:05
Speaker 1: terrified that they get crushed in that war going after
42:09
Speaker 1: Brazila's I guess I'm saying they are pushed against the war.
42:13
Speaker 1: America is doing everything on the table.
42:18
Speaker 2: Okay, let me rephrase it some other way. Okay, they
42:21
Speaker 2: will be reactions, but that the speed and the intensity
42:26
Speaker 2: or reaction will satisfy nobody, because everybody wanted to see
42:32
Speaker 2: a strong push against the US empire. But instead I
42:36
Speaker 2: think what what they will do? I think they will, uh,
42:39
Speaker 2: they will continue. I think that the whole bricks currency
42:43
Speaker 2: thing is not dead yet. You know, despite India's opposition,
42:46
Speaker 2: I think that that that they're going to continue to
42:49
Speaker 2: bring back and that do present a huge threat to
42:52
Speaker 2: the dollar hegemony, I mean, which is one of the
42:55
Speaker 2: main pillers of the US empire. So so they might
42:58
Speaker 2: not play well, They're might not play sanction collectively on
43:02
Speaker 2: the United States. What they will do is, you know,
43:06
Speaker 2: they will try to undermine the dollar hegemony for example.
43:10
Speaker 2: You know that that is one way they will seek
43:13
Speaker 2: to counter I think the US global hegemony.
43:18
Speaker 1: And to be fair, let's be honest, it's the decline
43:22
Speaker 1: is obvious either way. And as you point out, if
43:27
Speaker 1: nothing happens in ten fifteen years, that dead horses out
43:32
Speaker 1: the barn. I'll make the argument the horses out the
43:33
Speaker 1: barn now. In regards of China, I don't think the
43:35
Speaker 1: US can continue China at this point. Carl, You're awesome man.
43:40
Speaker 1: I always appreciate these conversations. You do damn good work.
43:45
Speaker 1: I appreciate you for joining me. We have Karl jab
43:48
Speaker 1: He is host of Silk and Steel podcast focused on China.
43:52
Speaker 1: Oh My classes focus on China and surrounding regions and
43:57
Speaker 1: their history, culture, and politics. You can follow Carl Twitter
44:00
Speaker 1: at Carl Jah. You can follow his podcast once at
44:04
Speaker 1: Steel Silk The Letter In, and you can subscribe and
44:07
Speaker 1: support at Patreon dot com, slash Silk and steal Carl.
44:11
Speaker 1: You are awesome. You have a fantastic night man. Thank
44:14
Speaker 1: you for this.
44:15
Speaker 2: Thank you, Jo