Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Vegas Red Ticket & Final Four Preview with Michael Calabrese

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Vegas Red Ticket & Final Four Preview with Michael Calabrese · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz, joined by the Queen of
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the Pot, Miss Kendri Middleton, and the return wait for it,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: dramatic effect of Stucky. Now, if you missed our NFL
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Draft breakdown, Gotta nail it breakdown, go and find that
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in the podcast and video feed, a nice primer for
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the upcoming NFL Draft at the end of this month.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But Stucky, welcome back to the fold. We missed you.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be back. It's going to grind of
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: a month, grind of a season, but it's basically come
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: to an end. Be able to have some free time
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: for a little bit, h read, some sleep, some get
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: out and bike and then before I know it, I'll
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: do this a little bit, even starting next week. But
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: it's I won't get fully fully immersed in college football
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: prep for a bit, but we'll start to take a
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: little peek there. But yeah, it's nice. So there's a
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: light at the end of the tunnel because from deep
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: deep into college football prep, which is like July August
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: until Monday at the end of the national title there's
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: really just no breathing. So yeah, it's good to be back.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: Looking forward to chopping up with you guys. This is
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: like the very and this is what this show is
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: supposed to be. It's a very nice break during the week,
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: and it'll be the only thing I have to do
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: for at least a little bit.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I love that, a little bit of levity, you know.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I honestly thought for a minute, Kendra that stuck. He
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: was just gonna hibernate until the preseason in the NFL.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: I don't know if.
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: I could go that long without cat updates. I like,
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: literally love Stucky's cat. I love what it makes a
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: guest appearance on the show. I want cats so bad.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: My cats are now, Yeah, they're out there indoor, outdoor,
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: so we have like a huge backyard they are. They
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: just have a ball back there and now it's nic
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: it's nice. They get a little squirrely squirmy when it
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: gets too cold for a while and they have to
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: stay inside and then they'll like fight each other. But
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: they're outside enjoying the nice day. I mean, it's very
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: nice here.
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: Today, must be nice.
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: It The feel like is twenty eight degrees here today
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: and I am going insane.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: It's going up to eighty today. But then I mean,
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: it's like Lexington's weather is I thought of that? Isn't
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: It's like that in a lot of the Midwest. But
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: like a couple of days it's going down to thirty.
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: So and we're sitting in this a fun way tomorrow, like,
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: what this is not Opening day weather?
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: Red Well, I'm curious. The Red docs are a mess.
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah they are, Yes they are, she says.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: With pure joy in her heart. We have Mike Calibretz
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: joining us to talk about the final four. Only three
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: games left in college basketball, at least at the top level.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna get to that in a bit. We
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: got stuck.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: He's random question back in the fold today, But I
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: want to get to some NFL news with you guys.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: There's some drama percolating out of Philadelphia.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Big shock.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I know, the Eagles fired their offensive coordinator Kevin Petula,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and then, according to.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Reports, he's not the only problem.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: The report from ESPN suggests that Jalen Hurts has been
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: reluctant to adapt. Obviously, he regressed in a big way
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: last year first round exit in the playoffs. But listen
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: to this quote he is pushed back on changes that
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: would diversify the scheme, including when it comes to going
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: under center more. He's shown a reluctant to let it
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: rip at times, particularly against zone coverage. He diverts from
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the game plan and changes play calls to what feels
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: like an excessive degree. Yikes, obviously they have issues. How
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: much of this are you going to factor into your analysis,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Stucky going into next year? If Jalen Hurts has become
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: rigid and the offensive line isn't good enough to protect
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: what he does, well.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: I mean it's April second, so I mean I'm not
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: putting too much stock into it as of right now.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, he has struggled versus zone coverage in the past,
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: and there's definitely some flaws in his game. I do
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: not think A. J. Brown is going to be there
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: next year. I know what Roseman came out and said,
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: but he has to say that at the meetings, and like,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: if anything's gonna happen, it's gonna be like after June
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: fi first, there's gonna be something that happens with the
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: Eagles before next year. Personnel wise, how's it all gonna
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: work with a new coordinator, which I think they needed.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: I don't know. It's still too early to tell, but
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: it's definitely one of the biggest storylines in the NFC
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: heading into next year, seeing how this is gonna work
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: and how Hurts fits into it. If aj Brown is
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: still there and if so, if not, where does he go?
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: If he is still there, how does it all work?
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: And then it's not just going to be a Oh
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: we watched Week one and we now have all the answers.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: That's going to be a situation to monitor throughout the
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: season to get a better handle on it. So as
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: of right now, I mean, it's just too it's way
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: too early to make any leap jump to any real conclusions.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Kendra does he need an elite offensive line to be
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: si successful? Every quarterback could use one, but some can
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: get by without it. He doesn't seem like the kind
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: of guy that can.
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's definitely one of the issues. But
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: what I'm.
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: Sitting here thinking is maybe he just needs a change
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: of scenery.
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: Like we see that happen all the time.
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: We love to talk about Sam Darnold, we love to
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: talk about Baker Mayfield.
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: We love to talk about these guys who.
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: Needed some time needed to change of scenery to kind
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: of flourish and play their best game.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: Jalen hurts.
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: I don't want to say his best years are probably
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: behind him, because I don't think that that's fair.
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: He's still relatively young.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: I think he's what twenty eight twenty nine like in
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: the quarterback position, you can play for a long time.
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: I do think he needs an elite offensive line to
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: be successful, But I'm wondering if a change of scenery
• 6:42
  Speaker 5: would do both of them a service, because I think
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: that he's this is rude, and the Philly fans are
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: probably going to come for me, and a lot of
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: them love him. But do we think that this would
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: serve him well for the rest of his career, just
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: to get out and go somewhere else. I'm kind of
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: leaning towards yes. And he's relatively relatively Here's the part
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: I think people are gonna get upset about replaceable.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because he does a lot of rudimentary things really well.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: And when you don't have a strong offensive line and
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Saquon took a step back because of it too, then
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: those calculated shots down field aren't there. His ability to
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: hurt you in the run game isn't as pronounced when
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: you're not also worried about a running back gashing you
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: for eight yards on every other play. So all of
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: those things if and then on top of it, you
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: have the psychological pressure side of what you're talking about, Kendra,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia fan base, you can only be bad for
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: like two weeks and then they're done with you. This
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: guy won a Super Bowl and they're already like, well, maybe.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: We could do better.
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: But is he one of the more mid quarterbacks to
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: win a Super Bowl? I'm like, I'm thinking about him,
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: Nick Foles, like I kind of throw them all into
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: that bucket. You know what would be crazy is if
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: Draft Day rolls around and it has been you know,
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: the hot rumor here about after that June first deadline,
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: AJ Brown winding up here obviously because of Rabel and
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: the need. But what if they just decided to trade
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: Jalen and leave AJ there and get another quarterback. That
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: would be that would be something.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: All right here here, Let's let's do one one quick
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: exercise before we get to one other news item.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: What team would it be?
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: Arizona?
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Arizona. He goes from the.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Pressure bird to the levity bird out west in Arizona,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Stucky pick a team. If we were to trade Jalen
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Hurts somewhat realistically, where.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Would he end up?
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: Or Pittsburgh?
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: That would be interesting. You just drive there, drive to
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: the new I.
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: Think Pittsburgh makes sense out of conference, although is he
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: is he too young for Pittsburgh.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Another ten years? Another ten years, that's going to be
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: a perfect answer. Would Aaron Glenn already sell his geno
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: smith Stock that he's all in on in order to
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: get a jailwart Apps?
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: I think he would slap his mother for Jalen Hurt?
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: Are you joking?
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: One other story I want to get to and then
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: we'll get the stuckies question. Strange one coming out about
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: pookuin Akoula, and honestly because April Fool's Day has really
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: jumped the shark. I honestly, I didn't even react to
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: this yesterday because I was concerned that it wasn't real.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: But pookin a coupa has checked into a private facility,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: according to his attorney, to focus on.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: His health personal It is a real story.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah so you so you thought you were somewhat bamboozled
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: by it too.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: I barely saw it but I don't. I hate April
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: Fool's Day on Twitter.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: I try to say, say the worst. None of the
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: jokes are funny.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's like a half a percent or funny, and
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: then ninety nine point five percent are just the most obvious, Like, Okay,
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: this is obviously just an April hool so that's just
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: all your timeline is. So I like just avoid Twitter
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: like the plague. Don't even look at my timeline on
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: April Fools. But I did see that, and I just
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: thought it was a joke, like a bad April Fools
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: Day jail same.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I looked at it and I said, Okay, I saw
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Adam Schefter tweet it. But let's just I'm gonna wake
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: up on April second, and if it's still there, then
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I'll react to it.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: And it is. It's a real story.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Naku has checked into a facility on his own before
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: a lawsuit was filed against him that accused him of
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: biting two women at a group dinner on New Year's Eve.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: He's going to remain there until he completes the program
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: ahead of the OTAs. This sounds less voluntary the more
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: that you read it. By the way, on the business side,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: of this. I mean, the RAMS probably said we are
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: not going to pay you unless you get yourself figured out.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: This guy's still on his rookie deal base salary of
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: five million dollars right now. Just to put a reference
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: point on that, Marvin Mims makes more money than Pukinakua.
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: Right now, so earlier this year, by the way.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he has misstepped more than once. But is
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: this such a pr thing angle for the money, Kendro,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: how are we viewing this?
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: I think it is a pr thing, and it's crazy
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: because he's one of these people who loves to like
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: step out and make jokes about CTE, which, depending on
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: the type of person you are, you can think that
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: that's funny or not.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: I I'm not.
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: Going to comment on that, But the thing that I
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: want to talk about is the irony that this is
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: happening the same you know, forty eight hours that the
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: NFL comes out and says that every single team needs
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: a mental health member with you know, all the certifications
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: on staff. And I think that this was kind of
• 11:43
  Speaker 5: just an ironic time for both of those news stories
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: to drop within the same forty eight hours.
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: I think it's a good move by the NFL.
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: A lot of people complained about the you know, independent
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: neurological people that they hired to kind of watch for
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: ct and all those types of things. But it's very serious,
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: and I think that Pukin who unfortunately is on a
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: fast track to the aj Brown scenario that we watched
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: unfold a couple of seasons ago, and it's unfortunate. I
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: don't want any of those things to happen. And it's
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: hard to draw the line between is he just you know,
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: a twenty two year old kid, or is this something
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: more serious with like the brain matter and all of
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: that kind of stuff. I just I don't want to
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: see this happen to anybody else. And I think that
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: as much as it is a pr thing, hopefully because
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: of this, we're going to take some steps in the
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: right direction in these young men being young men and
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: you know, being held to a higher standard with the
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: position that they're given.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Very well said Stucky, anything on this before we move on.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, I I'm curious to see if this just
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know, it does seem like it was more
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: just forced, but who knows what anyone is going through.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: If he is going through some stuff. Oh that he
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: gets through it. But I'm curious to see, just from
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: a football perspective, that this pushes the Rams just a
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: little bit more to potentially draft a wide receiver up early.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: I think it was something that they're probably considering anyway,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Like that roster doesn't have many needs, Like the long
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: term question is that quarterback. But if you assume just
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: going into this year, that everything status quo. I mean,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: you look back last year with that roster when healthy,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: you feel you felt good about the offensive line, the backfield,
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: the quarterback position, The defensive front was solid. The questions
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: were in the secondary. I think that that's what they
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: real They were a little acting, but they went and
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: they got McDuffie. I still think they need to probably
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: supplement their defensive backfield, but if you look at another
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: position that they could just use a boost, right they
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: not that Adams doesn't getting any younger, and they really
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: could use just another dynamic wide receiver three. I know
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: that McVeigh, you know, the second half of the year
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: was using a lot more three tight ends. So like you,
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: I'm curious to see, like do they go get like
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: a tight end that's also a receiver, like a more
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: of a just a receiving threat that they could move
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: the uses more of a chess piece. But there's also
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: an argument to me that they could just upgrade the
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: wide receiver position as well and then just have another weapon.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: So I'm curious to see how it impacts their their
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: draft decision, because I do think they are probably just
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: leaning toward at this point taking the best player available
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: on their board because they just don't they don't have
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: like glaring needs on that roster. So I'm curious to
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: see what the Rams do on on draft Day.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: Well, so I've been drafting as well as any team,
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: yeah in the NFL in recent seasons. I mean, that
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: was they were in like that they basically sacrificed their
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: future for Super super Bowl less needed, and you know
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: that the meme of buck them draft picks with them picks,
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: and they were definitely going to take a big step back,
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: and I don't think be able to compete for another
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl unless they just nailed the draft consistently. And
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: then they did. They just nailed so many picks, Like
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: think about all the guys they drafted up front on
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: the defensive side of the ball that all hit and
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: that enabled them to remain competitive and as one of
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: the best teams in the NFL. So yeah, they've been
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: just amazing in the draft. So definitely be paying close
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: attention to what they do to supplement that roster that,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: at least for this season, is one of the most
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: complete in the NFL with one of the fewest number
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: of holes.
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: You weren't here Tuesday, but I threw my chips in.
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: I think once Stafford retired, as we see Joe Burrow
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: move into that.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: Slot, I could see that Hollywood Borrow.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I stuck you for us. Random question, Well, the
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: other onson that was Cousins.
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: Do you.
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: That is a amazing an amazing signing for the twenty
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: twenty thirty six presidential election, the Cousins Mendoza ticket. I
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: mean those two guys. I used to always compare Mendoza
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: to Cousins, like with the way that his interviews were,
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: and I mean Mendoza has the funniest FoST game interviews.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: He like he like does sermons. But Mendoza and Cousins together.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be besties.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that is.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: They're the meum Vegas. Are we joking?
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: Is that a Republican or pretty sure? Is that a
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: Republican or Democratic ticket?
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: You already know the answer to that.
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: Yeah, actually no, I don't know, because I am and those.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: Are guys more I think a Democrat.
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: I agree, and I think our cousins would give Republican energy. Yeah,
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: so it's a moderate ticket.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd vote for.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: Which I think, which I think would maybe play well.
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: Because mendozas Cuban, So that's good.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: We need more. We need more middle of the road
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: politics anyway.
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: So but I think it was a smart signing, right
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: if you're if you're bringing in a young, uh you know,
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: a young quarterback who you think is going to be
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: your franchise quarterback, and you know you want it cannot
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: hurt to have a very veteran presence in the room
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: and a guy, if need be, if you need him
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: to start the season or step in, can still win games.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: And the NFL is he showed last year. So I
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: thought it was a really smart signing and just amazing
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: because I've been comparing Mendoza to Cousins just for the
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: the postgame stuff for a while. So I chuckled when
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: I saw that.
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: I was going to say, I think that this adds
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: fuel to the Brady Fire of wanting Mendoza to sit
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: for a year two So I think that that's probably
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: what we're going to see happen now that they signed
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: Kirk Cousins. But we also have some breaking news. Josh
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: Allen and Hailey Steinfeld have welcomed their first child. So
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: congrats to them. I clown on Josh Allen a lot,
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: but good for them.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: That's going to be a layer.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: Does that mean they didn't say?
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: They didn't say, but be very talented, to be salented and.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Very very talented, very attractive baby, no doubt.
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: All right, that's our breaking.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: News, the Prince of Buffalo.
• 18:51
  Speaker 6: So what does this mean?
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: It is?
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: This is the baby girl. Yes, it's the baby girl.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Trend, girl dad energy.
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: It's the girl dad try. I got to put a
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: future on Josh Allen. As soon as the show ends,
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: that's happening. I yeah, all right, I'm gonna beut on
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: them to win the division.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Now, so we are going to welcome in our guests
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: for today. Mike Calabrese joins us and we will get
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: to college basketball with you.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Mike. How's your tournament going?
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: By the way, it's good, But real quick, I got
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: to put on my Steve Karanaki hat or at least
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: throw on my Steve Karanaki. Khaki's real quick. You're saying
• 19:23
  Speaker 6: that Cousins and Mendoza is a moderate ticket. Cubans vote Republican.
• 19:27
  Speaker 6: They're like sixty eight percent Republican in the last cycle
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: in the state of Florida, so that that's a pretty
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: die in the wool red ticket if you put those
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: two together. Just throwing that out there.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Calabrese is our resident political analysts, so I'm going
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: to defer to him on that.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Have you been mopping up?
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: And he was, He's like, is He's from Miami.
• 19:49
  Speaker 6: So because they're they're afraid of They're afraid of communism, socialism,
• 19:53
  Speaker 6: every ism. They don't want it, so they vote whatever
• 19:56
  Speaker 6: party says that they hate theisms the most.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: Okay, fair here we are Politics Podcast. That's us.
• 20:04
  Speaker 6: You never know what you eat your heart save America.
• 20:07
  Speaker 6: To answer your question, it has been a roller coaster
• 20:10
  Speaker 6: for me in the tournament. The Elite eight Sweet sixteen
• 20:12
  Speaker 6: went a lot better than the first two rounds, just
• 20:15
  Speaker 6: the lack of upsets there. But as we talked about
• 20:18
  Speaker 6: on BBOC throughout the entire season, we're all the beneficiaries
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: of there not being a crazy amount of upsets. It's
• 20:24
  Speaker 6: sad to see the Cinderellas get clubbed in the opening weekend.
• 20:27
  Speaker 6: But then when you make it this deep, you get
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: these incredible matchups like Arizona Michigan, which is the highest
• 20:33
  Speaker 6: rated Ken Palm matchup of all time in the database
• 20:36
  Speaker 6: going back to ninety seven. I would say, from a
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: Final four perspective, if it can live up to the hype,
• 20:40
  Speaker 6: this is right there with like ninety one Duke UNLV
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: when UNLV was undefeated with Larry Johnson trying to run
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: it back against Christian Latoner Like, those are the levels
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: and the stakes in the neighborhood that we are finally
• 20:51
  Speaker 6: in here. And it's nice that we got these two
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: teams to be able to meet up in Indianapolis.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Well see if we can tackle this from a betting
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: perspective and make you all a little.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: Coin on our way out of the tournament in a moment.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: But first, a word about DraftKings from none other than me.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sports book, where
• 21:10
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• 21:13
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• 21:33
  Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Resident hooped college sports guru, Mike Calabrese from BBOC, among
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: many other wonderful action channels, is here with us to
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: talk Final Four. Mike, I'm curious, as a sports better,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: how does your betting shift once you get into the postseason.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Does it ramp up? Does it slow down? Is it
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: more futures focused? How do you go about changing once
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: you get we get this wave of casual money. Does
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: that create value? Do you sense that that dries up?
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: What's the mentality as you go into the tournament and
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: has it changed it all?
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Well?
• 22:12
  Speaker 6: Well, you go from at least in my experience, you
• 22:14
  Speaker 6: go from Tuesday nights betting some at league basketball, where
• 22:17
  Speaker 6: you know there's probably tens of people who are betting
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: on Saint Thomas against South Dakota State to As you mentioned,
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: these games that have incredible volume, the markets get fine
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: tuned in that regard. But the other element that comes
• 22:29
  Speaker 6: into play is that all these sportsbooks are competing against
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: each other for eyeballs for the bets, so they start
• 22:34
  Speaker 6: to open up all these exotic markets and you get
• 22:37
  Speaker 6: opportunities to hit numbers that just aren't offered the rest
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: of the year and most of the mainstream books, and
• 22:43
  Speaker 6: generally speaking in terms of my diet as a gambler,
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: I start to lean into a few more player props,
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: a few more of those exotics. I have some here
• 22:51
  Speaker 6: on the Final four as well, I'll get into because
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: they're just not as you know, basically fine tuned, as
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: they said, and even some of them, you can see
• 22:58
  Speaker 6: books hang numbers that don't make sense. We've seen this
• 23:01
  Speaker 6: through this season where all of a sudden they'll leave
• 23:05
  Speaker 6: certain markets up where it's like which conference is going
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: to win the national championship and you can get a
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: higher odd on a Big East team as opposed to Yukon,
• 23:12
  Speaker 6: which is Yukon. So it's like in some cases all
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: you have to do is just go through. There's a
• 23:16
  Speaker 6: little easter eggs that you can find. You know, the
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: price differentials can be pretty significant between books. You can
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: middle you can hedge. There's all kinds of different ways
• 23:23
  Speaker 6: to do it, because for the most part, they're limiting
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: you in terms of how much you can bet in
• 23:27
  Speaker 6: those situations. But at least those markets are being offered
• 23:30
  Speaker 6: really for the first time for college hoops, whereas you
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: know the NBA, these are kind of the prop markets
• 23:35
  Speaker 6: that are standard fair every single night.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Of the season.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about the games that we have in
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: front of US Illinois and Yukon, Michigan Arizona heavyweight bout.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Do you think are you of the opinion that the
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: championship game is essentially Michigan Arizona. Do you give Illinois
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: or Yukon a legitimate fighting chance with how good they've been,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: one of them obviously going to move on. Do you
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: view mission in Arizona is the de facto national championship
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: podds market would suggest that I don't.
• 24:06
  Speaker 6: I think if it ends up being let's say Arizona Illinois,
• 24:08
  Speaker 6: they'll probably close as a five point favorite. That's not
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: an insanely prohibitive favorite, you know, to have to go
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: up against. And I think for the most part, you know,
• 24:17
  Speaker 6: in this particular season. Yes, you can look at how
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: high Arizona and Michigan have climbed in terms of Ken
• 24:23
  Speaker 6: Palm ratings, but Illinois, if they have a night where
• 24:25
  Speaker 6: the three point shooting finally clicks, because for the majority
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: of you know, the season, at least the back half
• 24:30
  Speaker 6: of the season, they've been able to operate so well
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: in the half court, and they can kill you in
• 24:34
  Speaker 6: so many different ways, but they've been shooting about thirty
• 24:37
  Speaker 6: one percent from three. If all of a sudden, they
• 24:39
  Speaker 6: have a night where they shoot thirty eight, thirty nine
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: to forty percent, they can beat anybody. So this idea
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: that Arizona or Michigan, whoever wins that semi final, can
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: just go ahead and pencil and cutting down the nets,
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: I think that's a bridge too far. I think there's
• 24:51
  Speaker 6: an opportunity, certainly to grab the fighting line. I pust
• 24:54
  Speaker 6: the points if it is Yukon, though, I think they'll
• 24:57
  Speaker 6: get fed into the woods sheepper whether they play Michigan
• 25:00
  Speaker 6: or Arizona. I just don't think they're equipped to be
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: able to handle a high scoring game where you probably
• 25:05
  Speaker 6: score in the nineties to beat those two teams, So
• 25:08
  Speaker 6: it really depends on the left side of the bracket
• 25:10
  Speaker 6: who comes out of it between Illinois and you come.
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: I have been getting murdered in this tournament.
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: I don't even want to bet on anything else the
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: rest of the season and at all, this has been
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: the worst gambling stretch I have ever had.
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: The only joy I.
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: Have found has been in the Dan Hurley memes. But
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: how much does coaching matter at this point in the season.
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: Is that something that you're kind of factoring into all
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: of this, And if so, who do you.
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: Have your eye on for this final four coming up?
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: Yeah, coaching absolutely has to matter. It clearly matters in
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: terms of crunch time, in terms of late game execution,
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: in terms of having an alternate plan if you know
• 25:47
  Speaker 6: the opposition takes away your strength. And Hurley proved, you know,
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: down the stretch against Duke, where Duke was trying to
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: manufacture offense, where just Boozer just backs in and pounds
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: the ball six or seven times and tries to muscle
• 25:59
  Speaker 6: his way into the hoop. That was their go to Yukon.
• 26:02
  Speaker 6: When you watch them, they're calling actual plays. They got
• 26:04
  Speaker 6: all kinds of screen and cutter action and they're you know,
• 26:07
  Speaker 6: the ball is moving quickly, and Caravan is someone who's
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: facilitating and knocking down shots, and Mullins, you know, obviously
• 26:13
  Speaker 6: makes that shot to send them to the championship or
• 26:15
  Speaker 6: to the final four. But the difference is that Hurley
• 26:18
  Speaker 6: is someone I have ultimate confidence and it's proven in
• 26:21
  Speaker 6: itself time and time again. This guy is absolutely nails
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: after he gets out of the first weekend of the
• 26:26
  Speaker 6: NCAA tournament. So you have to put him number one
• 26:29
  Speaker 6: with a bullet He's the top guy in this situation,
• 26:32
  Speaker 6: and then the rest. You know, obviously I would go
• 26:34
  Speaker 6: with Dusty May. You know, you get Fau within a
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: shot of playing for the national championship and then you're
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: back here again. It's not a coincidence. But the other
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: two guys, I mean, you can kind of flip a
• 26:43
  Speaker 6: coin between Underwood and Lloyd. You know, Lloyd in terms
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: of his scheme, it's kind of a copy and paste
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: from Mark Few all the success they had in Spokane. Like,
• 26:52
  Speaker 6: this is a situation where I think he's obviously an
• 26:55
  Speaker 6: offensive coach. First, I wonder what it's going to take
• 26:57
  Speaker 6: defensively to be able to slow down Michigan. This is
• 27:00
  Speaker 6: a proven situation for me to elevate them to an
• 27:02
  Speaker 6: elite level, and Underwood has done it at so many
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: different stops. But sometimes I do feel as though he's
• 27:08
  Speaker 6: been out coached at times in the tournament, and unfortunately
• 27:11
  Speaker 6: he's you know, staring that man in the mirror right now,
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: which is what did I do last time that I
• 27:15
  Speaker 6: faced you know, Hurley in the tournament? They went to
• 27:17
  Speaker 6: the elite eight in twenty twenty three and got crushed
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: by twenty five points. So can he rise to this moment?
• 27:25
  Speaker 6: And you know, you're not gonna out coach Hurly, but
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: certainly not have it be such a disparity between the
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: two coaching staffs. If that's the case, that this is
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: a great legacy Final four for so many of these coaches.
• 27:35
  Speaker 6: Hurley's already cemented, but these other guys can take a
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: huge step four in terms of their national perspective and
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: how people view them.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we just saw, We just saw the I mean
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: the head coaches rightfully so get most of the pub
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: But like Yukon with Hurley has been incredible. Their staff
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: is really good, their assistance. But I think the Illinois
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: staff outside of Underwood is pretty underrated this season, so
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: it's not always just a head coach. But I think
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: that that's one of the most interesting get betting storylines
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: for me is in that Illinois Yukon game. I mean,
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: Illinois has clearly been the superior team this year. I mean,
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: this is a team that since December first, they haven't
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: lost a game that didn't go to overtime or that
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: wasn't decided that the Buzzer. Outside of Michigan, that's it.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: They had four overtime losses they lost in Nebraska at
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: the Buzzer, all against tournament teams. And Yukon on the
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: other hand, and Illinois, like Arizona, Michigan has won every
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: tournament game by double digits. On the other hand, Yukon
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: has struggled to get to this point.
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: They almost blew a twenty point lead against Michigan State,
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: they needed a miraculous twenty point comeback against Duke. They
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: played a shorthanded UCLA team that they're argued to their
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: best player, and then they were kind of strong going with
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: Furman in the first round, and then coming into the tournament,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: they lost four of eleven, a couple to non tournament teams,
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: including creating at home at Marquette. So this team has
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: had its ups and downs, and they've they're I think
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: clearly if you just look at body of work overall roster,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: I think they're the worst team that's left. But you
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: have the Hurley factor and he's fourteen and zero against
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: the spread in the second round or later, which is
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: just incredible. So how much is that worth? What is
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: the Hurley tax worth? And that because I think most
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: pure number sides i'm just under four. I project this
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: just under four. But I know that Hurley in the
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: in the tournament setting deserves a little bit of a bump.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: How much is that bump? I know that there's going
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: to be a lot of casual money that will be
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: like Yukon is a dog here, especially after they just
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: be duke. That will probably blood in later in the week.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: Doesn't mean it's wrong. There's a lot of casual money
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: on Yukon last week as a dog. But there's also
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: going to be disagreement, I think among sharper money of
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: how much is that worth to the spread because is
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: it is it a point or more? And what should
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: that true fair number be? So I'm curious to watch
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: where that line goes, I mean, it's it's not gonna
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: move a ton, but does it settle it one and
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: a half or two and a half. So that's that's
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: definitely interesting storyline because fourteen and oh against the spread
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: in the second round or later is just almost impossible
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: to believe.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: First half unders in final four games has been a
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: pretty phenomenal trend. Maybe we can get Evan to enlighten
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: us on exactly what that looks like. Teams are tight,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: early nervous players, big stage, we're in football, stadium, site,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: lines are weird, elevated court, all of those things play
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: a factor here, Evan.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: If is that true?
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: Final four first?
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: So much is that? Evan?
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you have that handy or if
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: you need us to give you another minute, But this
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: is a betting angle that I have heard in more
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: than one place. I don't have the numbers in front
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: of me, but do you have that handy?
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: I think that's actually not true.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: So I would think that unders and just unders in general,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: because of the different atmosphere, the enhanced pressure, and the
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: stadium setting, the cavernous nature to it. Calibres is that
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: something that you look towards as we get to the
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: final four with these different site lines, I'm going.
• 31:32
  Speaker 6: To take this in a slightly different direction. I think
• 31:34
  Speaker 6: there's so many international players who have played in so
• 31:37
  Speaker 6: many different venues and are kind of used to this pressure,
• 31:41
  Speaker 6: like the narrative about the transfer portal, but also the
• 31:44
  Speaker 6: international flavor of it. I don't think it's coincidental that
• 31:47
  Speaker 6: a lot of the teams that have made as Indianapolis
• 31:50
  Speaker 6: have this international DNA because some of these teams, they
• 31:53
  Speaker 6: just seem to be totally unflappable in the situation and
• 31:56
  Speaker 6: just going through the rosters. You know, for the casuals
• 31:59
  Speaker 6: who are listening, some of these locations are just absolutely
• 32:02
  Speaker 6: like insane in terms of this roster building. You know,
• 32:05
  Speaker 6: you have Illinois, you got the ev Sitches, they're both
• 32:08
  Speaker 6: from Croatia. You got Murkovich is from Montenegro. Petrovic is
• 32:11
  Speaker 6: from Serbia. By the way, for Mrkovich, he's from Nixik, Montenegro,
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: which is known as the city of Beer, steal and
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: rock and roll in American City's got to steal that
• 32:21
  Speaker 6: tagline because that's amazing. Nick sick Gold, by the way,
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: great Pilsner style beer. And then on the other side,
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: This one's for you. Kendra. Little Birdie told me that
• 32:27
  Speaker 6: you're really into cats.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Is that true?
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: Yes?
• 32:30
  Speaker 6: Okay, So if we look at Krevas, he is from shol, Lithuania,
• 32:35
  Speaker 6: which is known for its world famous cat museum.
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: So there you go.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: I thought you were going to say Turkey because Istambel's
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: the city of cats.
• 32:43
  Speaker 6: Do you think that this is yeah?
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: Do you think that this is going to be a
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: trend moving forward, because obviously two of the teams left
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: have like massive foreign exchange student situations going on. Are
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: we going to see this be really popular in the
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: coming years of these tournaments.
• 32:58
  Speaker 6: I think it's difficult to pull it off at this scale.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 33:01
  Speaker 6: Tommy Lloyd, as I mentioned, he came from you know,
• 33:04
  Speaker 6: the Zags, working under Mark Few as an assistant. He
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: was always in charge of international recruiting. It's one of
• 33:09
  Speaker 6: the reasons why they had so many quality international bigs
• 33:12
  Speaker 6: that he went out. You have to it's more than
• 33:14
  Speaker 6: just like hop on a plane with a bag of money,
• 33:16
  Speaker 6: get the exchange rate and then hand it out and
• 33:18
  Speaker 6: all of a sudden you have these top players. You
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: have to know the academies, you have to know the
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: semi pro teams. You also have to know the you know,
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: international law and NCAA bylaws for who's eligible and what
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: you can do. So kind of like laying that pipework.
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: You know, pipeline takes time. It's not necessarily something that
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: you can just flip a switch on with money in
• 33:36
  Speaker 6: the way that you can, you know, with the transfer
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: portal for at least domestic players.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: I'll say, Oh, by the way, Kendra, my favorite cat
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: place in the US is, uh, the Hemingway House in
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: key West. Have you ever been there?
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: I've been. I've been to Key West, but I haven't
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: been in the Hemingway House. So I'll have to go.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: I'll sirt tech it up.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: You've never you went to You went to QS and
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: easn go to the Hemingway House.
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: No, I wasn't with the gates. We were just hammered.
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's I was happening the whole time too. That's
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: like the one the only productive thing I did. But
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: I also love m Ayway. But I just looked it up,
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: so you would think your your logic is sound, but
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: also keep in mind scoring is up across the sport.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: Like a lot of people blindly got these first half
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: unders in the first round with that same kind of logic.
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: But this year they got crushed doing that, which means.
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: Next year is going to be the year to do it.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I was one of them, by the way, and I
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: picked my spots. I didn't just like board bit it
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: and I was slightly profitable, but yeah, it was not
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: It wasn't this big money maker.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Like I'm sure the.
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: Reason I said that can't be right is because I
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: know that historically Elite eight unders in the first half
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: have always been very profitable and they're very slow, and
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: then final fours actually start fast. My hypothesis has always
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: been teams play a little really tight when they want
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: to because they know a trip to the final four,
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: that's like the ultimate prize is on the line. And
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: then once you get to the final four, teams kind
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: of up a little bit.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: That's what it's like free money kind of playing with.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and then like game in the final four, games
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: actually get tighter late, but they're actually if you just
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: look at like tempo numbers compared to expectation, they're actually
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: faster early and the numbers back that up.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: So Evan has shared the numbers with US fifteen and twelve.
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: To the over. Yeah, that's over in the first twelve
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: and one to the over, So unders would be twelve
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: fifteen and one is that?
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: So you're right, But the angle, the angle is the
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: second half, second half.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Under twenty eight and fourteen in the elite eight.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Or later, the second half under sixty six and thirty
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: six sixty five percent since twenty eleven, So that might
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: be backs up what.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: I just said. So like start fast and then teams
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: get really tight, especially like in a close game, and
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: then the possessions you know, with so much more, meaning
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: teams are playing like extra cautious and not running as much.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: So yeah, but first half first half under have been
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: have not been profitable. Doesn't mean that they can't hit
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: this weekend, But I wouldn't blindly just bet that.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: All right, it'll be changing my DK pick for a
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: moment after this.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: The calibrees if we're looking at the betting splits here,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the bets, sixty eight percent of
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: the money on Illinois so bets tickets, and money on
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: the fighting alone.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: I's side the line.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: By the way, both of these lines pretty much parked
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: that one's at minus two minus two and a half
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: all week. There are some one and a half's out
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: there if you want to be on the Illinois side.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: And then for Michigan Arizona forty two percent of the
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: bets fifty four percent of the money. So we've got
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: a diff there. On the Michigan Wolverines. That line has
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: been parked at one one and a half in favor
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: of Michigan all week. Is there anything to take from this?
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Are you surprised at all where the.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Action is coming in on both of these games?
• 36:59
  Speaker 6: No, honest, you know Illinois. You look at every advanced
• 37:02
  Speaker 6: metrics site, you know, Mia, torvik Ken Palm, they all
• 37:05
  Speaker 6: have them as a slightly larger favorite than that. And
• 37:08
  Speaker 6: I think that's the Hurley tax. I think that's the
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: you know, public coming in and backing someone who has
• 37:12
  Speaker 6: been an ATM for them at least this deep in
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: the tournament for years. But when I look at that,
• 37:18
  Speaker 6: that doesn't surprise me. On the other side, Arizona Michigan,
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: it's a coin flip game. You can talk yourself into
• 37:23
  Speaker 6: either one. And you know, from a narrative standpoint, from
• 37:26
  Speaker 6: a brand of basketball from you know, some of their
• 37:28
  Speaker 6: comps where they have a few common opponents There's lots
• 37:31
  Speaker 6: of different ways you can go back and forth, and
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: that's one of the reasons why I would put this
• 37:35
  Speaker 6: out there right from the get go. If you think
• 37:37
  Speaker 6: this is going to be a historically good matchup between
• 37:39
  Speaker 6: Arizona and Michigan and you just want to enjoy the game,
• 37:42
  Speaker 6: there's a great way to do it, which is you
• 37:44
  Speaker 6: can have the margin of victory in either direction at
• 37:46
  Speaker 6: one to five points at plus one forty out in
• 37:49
  Speaker 6: the market. So all you're really looking for is a
• 37:51
  Speaker 6: close game. I think that's an incredible bet. I also
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: liked the overtime market. When it opens at plus fourteen hundred,
• 37:57
  Speaker 6: that is cratered down to plus seven fifty, So I
• 37:59
  Speaker 6: think that's a pass for me now. But if you're
• 38:01
  Speaker 6: just looking for these games and you're kind of, you know,
• 38:04
  Speaker 6: talking against yourself and making you know, both sides of
• 38:07
  Speaker 6: the argument, why not just lean into that a little
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: bit and then play for a close matchup.
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: Also, keep in mind, like ninety percent of the tickets
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: frore on Michigan against Tennessee last week, like the ghost
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: can win, and more importantly, it's it's Thursday. Most of
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: the casual action is going to be placed on Saturday.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Yep, no doubt.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Let's throw together our Draft Kings parlay for our final
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: four picks. Everything is available, a full menu of options
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: over at our favorite sports book.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Draft Kings with a Crown is yours. Kendro.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: We start with you because you've been so hot in
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: college basketball.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: Oh my god, you guys, I'm gonna cry.
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: I was really set on the Illinois money line, but
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: after the Dan Hurley speech, I am now really really
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: sweaty in my own apartment with my heat off. I'm
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: still gonna stick with my Illinois choice just because I
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: think their roster is better, and that matters more than
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: a great coach with a less with a lesser roster
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: at this point, so I'm gonna stick with my guns,
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: even though my guns have been.
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: Unloaded and shitty.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: I feel like I'm showing up to a gunfight with
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: a knife, But whatever.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Fuck it, here we go, said with full confidence Calabrese,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: what about you.
• 39:19
  Speaker 6: I'm gonna go with a player prop Brandon Burry's for Arizona.
• 39:23
  Speaker 6: He's been someone who's helped space the floor. He can
• 39:25
  Speaker 6: knock down threes. The three point market has blown up
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: like it was a money maker, particularly from a ladder strategy,
• 39:31
  Speaker 6: He's made over three points or three triples per game
• 39:35
  Speaker 6: during the tournament, So let's put that aside and just
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: focus in on his point total. Because when they play
• 39:40
  Speaker 6: up tempo teams, Burry's is the beneficiary of more scoring.
• 39:43
  Speaker 6: So let's go over sixteen and a half. You can
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: ladder it up, you know, to get to twenty plus
• 39:47
  Speaker 6: one seventy over twenty four and a half, almost five
• 39:50
  Speaker 6: to one. Keep in mind, when they played super fast
• 39:52
  Speaker 6: teams like Bama K State BYU, he scored at least
• 39:55
  Speaker 6: twenty eight points. And they just played against Arkansas. He
• 39:58
  Speaker 6: had twenty four points early, you know, in the second half,
• 40:02
  Speaker 6: and they kind of just coasted late. They didn't need
• 40:04
  Speaker 6: him to score anymore. So I think there's an opportunity
• 40:06
  Speaker 6: for him to have a big breakout game, and if
• 40:08
  Speaker 6: they do win and get to the national Championship, it's
• 40:10
  Speaker 6: going to be on his back.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the under in Arizona Michigan.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: We're expecting frasier Ali in this one, and usually those
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: kind of games, I like to tilt towards the under.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: If we're gonna have some bigs battling down low and rebounds,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: and every possession is going to matter so much in
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: these games. I was gonna go first half, you guys
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: talked me off that, So we'll just go full game
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: under one fifty seven and a half from Michigan Arizona
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: the heavyweight bout late into the evening, Stucky, what about you.
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: Let's go Arizona plus one and a half. I make
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: them a very very tiny favorite. I think that there's
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: some matchup advantages that they could take advantage off. I
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: ramble about this game on and on. I wrote about
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: it on the Action app. Listen to Big Bets on
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: campus if you want to hear in depth breakdown, I won't.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: I'll spare you from a fifteen minute ramble. But let's
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: go Arizona plus one and a half.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: So if we put all of those together, we've got
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Bury's who is at over sixteen and a half points
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: scored the under Michigan Arizona one fifty seven and a half,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Arizona plus one and a half against Michigan and the
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Illinois money line. We get home at plus ten point
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: fifty over on draft kings where the crown is yours.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Then I'll do it for today's episode, Thanks to Mike
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Calabres for hopping in with us Stucky, so good to
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: have you back on the pod. Shout out to our
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, Statsound Evan Abrams. We've
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: got more great content coming up next week. The Favorites
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: will be back on Tuesday, and as always, you can
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: or wherever you download your favorite podcast. So see you
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: next time here on the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: The Crown is yours.
• 41:58
  Speaker 6: Action Network reminds minds you please gamble responsibly.
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: hundred gambler