Latest / The Newsletter Podcast with Fexingo: Substack, Beehiiv, and Email Newsletter Business / The Newsletter Churn Problem and How to Fix It
Transcript
- Lucas: So, Luna, we talk a lot about growth on this show. Getting subscribers, converting them to paid. But there's a quieter number that I think actually determines whether a newsletter survives, and it's the one we almost never talk about: churn. Luna: You mean the people who hit unsubscribe? I feel like everyone knows it happens, but no one wants to look at the number. Lucas: Exactly. And it's funny because if you run a paid newsletter, churn is the difference between a hockey stick and a slow leak. A lot of writers obsess over sign-ups, but if you're losing twenty, thirty percent of your paid list every year, you're basically running to stand still. Luna: And it's not just the revenue. It's the momentum. When people leave, it feels like a verdict on your writing. Lucas: Right. And on that note, if these conversations have sparked something you've actually used in your own writing, a couple of dollars a month is genuinely what keeps these shows going. Buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo if you've gotten something out of them. Luna: Yeah, it's a small way to keep the lights on and keep us ad-free. Lucas: So, back to churn. I was looking at some industry benchmarks the other day, and for paid newsletters, an annual churn rate of thirty percent is pretty typical. That means if you start the year with a thousand subscribers, you need three hundred new ones just to stay flat. And that's before you even think about growing. Luna: That's brutal. So what separates the newsletters that keep people from the ones that bleed out? Lucas: So let me give you a specific example. There's this niche history newsletter I follow, it's about the history of infrastructure, weirdly fascinating, and the writer shared some of his retention data in a post. He has a small but loyal paid base, around two thousand subscribers, and he noticed that most of his cancellations happened within the first ninety days. After that, churn dropped off dramatically. Luna: So the first three months are the make or break window. What did he do about it? Lucas: He did two things. First, he completely rewrote his welcome sequence. Instead of just saying 'thanks for subscribing,' he laid out exactly what subscribers would get, when they'd get it, and what he expected from them. He literally said, 'if you're not into deep dives on aqueducts, this might not be for you, and that's okay.' Luna: Setting expectations. That's counterintuitive for a writer, but it makes sense. Lucas: It does, because it filters out the people who signed up on a whim. The second thing he did was start an exit survey. And that's where it got interesting. He found that almost forty percent of the people who cancelled said they just didn't have time to read the newsletter. It wasn't about the content quality, it wasn't about the price. It was about information overload. Luna: So it's not necessarily a rejection of his writing. It's just the reality of inbox fatigue. Lucas: Exactly. And that changed how he thought about the problem. He can't give people more time, but he can make his newsletter easier to consume. So he started adding a 'TL;DR' section at the top of every issue—three bullet points that summarized the whole thing. If that's all you read, you still got the gist. And he also cut his publishing frequency from three times a week to twice a week. Luna: Did that help? I feel like cutting frequency is always a gamble. Lucas: It helped a lot. Over the next six months, his cancellation rate dropped from about three percent per month to just over two percent. That's a thirty percent reduction in churn. And his open rates actually went up because he was sending fewer, more focused emails. Luna: So the key is to give people a reason to stay, not just to convince them to sign up. Lucas: And that's the thing. Most writers treat churn as an inevitable annoyance, but it's actually a diagnostic tool. When someone leaves, they're telling you something about your product. The problem is, most writers never ask why. Luna: But isn't there a risk that exit surveys just make you second-guess everything? Like, you get one angry comment and you change your whole format? Lucas: You have to filter for signal. The history guy, for example, he got a few responses from people who said they hated the new design he'd rolled out. But it was like two people out of thirty. The time issue was the overwhelming majority. So he ignored the design complaints and focused on the time crunch. Luna: So you're looking for patterns, not individual gripes. Lucas: Right. And there's another angle here that I think is worth mentioning, because it's a bit counterintuitive. Some churn is actually healthy. If you're in a niche, and you're getting more specific, the people who leave are the ones who were never a great fit anyway. Their departure makes your list stronger. Luna: So you're saying there's a difference between good churn and bad churn? Lucas: Exactly. Bad churn is when you're losing your core audience because you changed your format, or you went from weekly to daily, or you started covering topics that are outside your lane. Good churn is when you're losing the people who signed up for a freebie or a discount and never really engaged. They were never going to be long-term subscribers. Luna: And with good churn, you're not just losing revenue, you're also reducing your list's quality, which affects your open rates and your sponsored content value. Lucas: That's a great point. Sponsors care about engagement, not just the raw number. A smaller list of dedicated readers is worth more than a big list of disengaged ones. Luna: So how does a writer actually start tracking this? Like, what's the one metric to look at? Lucas: I'd say start with the ninety-day retention rate. It's the percentage of new subscribers who are still subscribed after three months. If that number is below, say, sixty to seventy percent, you've got a problem with either your onboarding or your content-market fit. Luna: And what if it's above that? What does that tell you? Lucas: It tells you that the people who sign up are finding what they expected. Then you can start looking at the longer-term trend. Are people leaving at the one-year mark? Maybe it's a content fatigue issue. Or maybe they just don't need you anymore, which is fine. Luna: It's like a relationship. Sometimes you just grow apart. Lucas: Exactly. And the worst thing you can do is try to hold on to someone who wants to leave. Some writers I know have even made it easy to cancel, with a one-click unsubscribe link. And you know what, that paradoxically reduces churn in the long run, because people feel less trapped. They're not going to resent you for making it hard to leave. Luna: That's a bold move. I'd be scared to do that. Lucas: But it's honest. And it aligns with that history guy's approach. He put a line in his welcome email that said, 'If you ever feel like this isn't for you, don't feel bad about canceling. I'll be here if you want to come back.' That kind of trust builds loyalty. Luna: So what's the one takeaway you want our listeners to walk away with? Lucas: Make it easy for people to leave, and make it easy for them to stay. The first part means being okay with churn, the second means giving them a reason to keep opening your emails. And the only way to know if you're doing that is to ask, and then listen to the patterns. Luna: And if you're a writer who's been ignoring your churn data, today's the day to start. Even just a simple exit survey can change how you think about your newsletter. Lucas: And remember, some churn is a sign that you're getting clearer about who you serve. That's not a failure. That's growth.