Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/26/26: Trump Econ Numbers Flop, Oil Spikes, Professor Pape Dire Warning, Cuba Makes Offer To US

Transcript

3/26/26: Trump Econ Numbers Flop, Oil Spikes, Professor Pape Dire Warning, Cuba Makes Offer To US · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
• 0:05
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• 0:29
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• 0:30
  Speaker 2: So, as we were just discussing how young people may
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: be forced into this cause, whether they want it to
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: or not, through a potential draft that this administrations never
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: rolled out, let's take a listen to Caroline Lovett talk
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: about why exactly Trump decided to launch this war.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: In our reporting speak a lot to young voters, many
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: of whom voted for President Trump for the first time.
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: In twenty twenty four.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: You're hoping to have no more wars than to have
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: lower prices. Now with the war taking place and with
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: gas prices going up. Here's what President Trump's message would
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: be to those voters who kind of swung into his
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: coalition in twenty twenty four that maybe don't field the
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: Admistraians goingness they had extended.
• 1:05
  Speaker 5: President Trump is doing this for you. He's doing this
• 1:07
  Speaker 5: for young people, so that we are no longer threatened
• 1:10
  Speaker 5: by our rogue terrorist regime in the Middle East that
• 1:12
  Speaker 5: seeks to kill the brave men and women who serve
• 1:15
  Speaker 5: in our country in.
• 1:15
  Speaker 6: The Middle East, many of them young people themselves.
• 1:18
  Speaker 5: Young men and women who serve this country honorably in
• 1:21
  Speaker 5: uniform and have been threatened, killed, and maimed by the
• 1:24
  Speaker 5: rogue Iranian terrorist regime for forty seven years. President Trump
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: finally had the courage to step up and do what's
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: right by our.
• 1:30
  Speaker 6: National security, our homeland security.
• 1:33
  Speaker 5: As for the temporary short term fluctuation and gas prices,
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: the President has said, once these combat operations are over,
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: this administration is going to continue to unleash American energy dominance.
• 1:45
  Speaker 6: We're continuing to do that every day, and.
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: We're going to see pipe prices that the pump go
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: back down, just as we have over the past year.
• 1:51
  Speaker 6: Because of this President.
• 1:52
  Speaker 7: Young people. He's doing this for you.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Have you told him thank you? Aren't you so delighted?
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: This is what the president and has decided to do
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: for you at a time. And let's put the next
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: piece up on the screen. The job market for young
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: great graduates is the grimmest in years. Young people, most
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: of them cannot hope to afford a house. This war
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: is making that worse because mortgage rates are going up again.
• 2:19
  Speaker 7: She reference there gas prices.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I'd say that's a pretty significant, important part of the
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: budget for most young Americans who are trying to get
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: their you know, get their get their bearings in the
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: job market and get themselves on their feet and up
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: and going pretty devastating for them on that front. And
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: the polling reflects the fact that not just young people,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: but the population in general, but especially young people, are
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: not in support of this war.
• 2:44
  Speaker 7: Let's put C three up on the screen.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Nate Silver has started doing a tracker of support or
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: opposition for this war, and every day that goes by,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: that opposition number ticks up bit by bit. So right
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: now currently again this is an average of all polling.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: Fifty two point one percent of pose and forty percent
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: roughly support. Okay, Historically Americans are very pro war, especially
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of war.
• 3:10
  Speaker 7: They're very pro war.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: They rally around the flag, they drink the kool aid,
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: they listen to the mainstream press. They see, you know,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the American military doing a thing, looking badass, dropping bombs,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: et cetera. Usually, the population is overwhelmingly in support of
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: these wars.
• 3:25
  Speaker 7: At the beginning.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: They were for Iraq, they certainly were for Afghanistan. Yes,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: there was a vocal opposition in the Rock War, but
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: it was, you know, nowhere near a majority of the population.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: It was a fairly small minority of the population that
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: opposed the Iraq War from the jump. And we are
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: just weeks into this thing and already you have quite
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: significant and clear opposition to this war. It was a
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: really extraordinary thing. And there was no real attempt even
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: to build support for the war because they don't think
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: that what you think about it really matters. They don't
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: care what you think, and they don't belie believe that
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: there's going to be any sort of real democratic check
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: on what they're up to here.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I just think that if you look
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: at I mean that I think about that new job
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: number for young graduates in comparison to the Iran war
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: and what the administration said. I've even seen Mark Levin
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Mark Levin going around being like, wouldn't you all pay
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: an extra fifty cents to Gallen just to make sure
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: that the Ayatola could never have a nuclear weapon. I'm like, no,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: actually I wouldn't, and neither should anybody else.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Well, not to mention, you have made it more likely
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: that they're going to have a nuclear weapon. You've made
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: it more so we're paying more and they're more likely
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: to have a nuclear weapons. So congratulations, way to go.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: You killed the guy who had issued the fatwah against
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: the nuclear.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Well, so you killed the job man who actually was
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: keeping Iran away from a nuclear weapon. Congratulations. And now
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: his son, who you've murdered, basically his entire extended family.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: That guy definitely is going to keep to the traditions
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: of his song. What would you if you took that
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: lesson away? If your father spent his entire life at
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: this leader of a country, it seemed indecisive, and all
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the people around you are telling you that's what happened,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: and then he died after an Israeli bomb exploded him.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: While your what is it his wife, his daughter, and
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: all of these other extended family members all got killed.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: And by the way, you also probably got your face
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: like scarred as a result of the explosion. What would
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: your mindset be, just from a normal human perspective on
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the young.
• 5:22
  Speaker 7: Villain origin story.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Literally, yeah, it's like, what's the guy Batman two face?
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: You know, it's like, that's how you become a villain
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: And it doesn't it's not an endorsement to say that
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: would be a very normal human reaction and then to
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: understand that we have to deal with the consequences of that.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: But coming back to the young person front and generally
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: they're the reason why this war is so extraordinary. It
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: actually warms my heart to see them so many people
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: up in arms and people really against it is because
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: for the first time we see and have we have
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: alternative views. Our show is exploding. It's not just about us, obviously,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: there's an entire ecosystem of people who are out there
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: are trying to actually bring this thing to a close.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: The second thing is that the government at this time
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: really showed its hand. They felt so arrogant Trump and
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: others that America would follow them into this war that
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: they didn't even bother trying to sell us. It also
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: has exposed how much how little faith we should have
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: in our members of Congress who are fundamentally cowards. It
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: has reset a lot of people's understandings of the political system.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: You and I know this. A huge part of Trump's
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: appeal was being anti war and appearing to be anti war.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: We say that, yeah, a massive, a massive part of it.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: You can't deny it from the podcast to I mean,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: so many people who I spoke to, and it was
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: a huge part of it for me as well. I'm
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: not saying I expected, you know, Pollyanna Peace, I did
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: think that the Ukraine War and that this Urn war
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: would never happen. I can tell you that. I think
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of people thought that, and so for them
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: it is a visceral, scarring experience. It was something directly
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: violative of what they actually said they were we're going
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: to do, and a lot of the advisors of the
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: people who are around them, and so if we watch them,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: that will breed genuine rage inside of you. I can
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: say that on my part, and I do definitely think
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: that's the case for a lot of other people who
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: voted in the election, and so to have it so
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: that they have such contempt for all of us, to
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: put us into this war and at the very same
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: time tell us that they're doing it for us. For
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: that is a breaking point, like for real, for so
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: many young voters that I actually think this will fundamentally
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: change a lot of ways that people vote in the future,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: not for the extended future, but in the next election.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: This will dramatically change the way that we evaluate our
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: candidates because clearly, for a lot of people myself included,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: our framework for evaluation was wrong. So how does that
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: have You have to re engineer the way in the
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: standards of which you hold people and promises and you
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: know the old sayings of like politicians always break their promises,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: like in some ways always going to be true, but
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: they're there's degrees of where we go.
• 8:02
  Speaker 7: Yes, very true, Yeah, there are degrees.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Let's put the next piece up on the screen because
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: it speaks to your political point. Here Trump's approval rating
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: is in the toilet. I mean, you can see this
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: trend line. So this is the Reuter's pole and you
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: can see at the beginning, you know, Trump, for one
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: of the first times in his political career actually had
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: a net positive approval rating, and that has just been
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: squandered over and over again, and now it's all the
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: way down. This is a new low thirty six percent approve.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is near the basement of as long
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: as his base like hangs in there with him, which
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: they largely continue to do. You know, there are all
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: these silly poles, are like one hundred percent of mega
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: approoves of mega.
• 8:39
  Speaker 7: You know. Anyway, I actually believe that, by the way, Yeah,
• 8:42
  Speaker 7: I believe that.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Sure, because maga has been defined as Trump.
• 8:46
  Speaker 7: Yeah, like whatever Trump wants.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: So if you're still defining yourself as I'm maga, you
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: are the definition of being maga is.
• 8:52
  Speaker 7: Whatever Trump says. I trust him. I trust Trump.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: So Trump wants to go to war and iron him
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: though we said he wouldn't do that. Sure, let's go
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: along for the ride. You saw the way that the
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: partisan sentiment on like whether or not you support Iran
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: war completely flipped once Trump decided to do it. But
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: in any case, the rest of the public, anyone who's
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: not maga, I mean, this is really unpopular.
• 9:12
  Speaker 7: So Trump's approval rating is clearly taking a hit.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: And it's not just this poll by the way, there
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: have been a bunch of poles that have come out
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: in the past week that have him in the thirties,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: from you know, thirty six up to you know, up
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: to thirty nine, and some in the low forties. I
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: think there's a Fox News poll that just came out
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: that I believe had him at forty percent, which again
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: very low for any president, and even low for this
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: president who has been very unpopular, And if you dig
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: into some of these numbers, I mean, it's really quite extraordinary.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: So forty six percent of respondents say the war in
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Iran will make the US less safe in.
• 9:45
  Speaker 7: The long run.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: Only twenty six percent believe the rhetoric from the administration
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: and from the war defenders that it's going to make
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: the country safer. So you have a near majority that
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: are like, this whole war and death and destruction and
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: money that's being spent, all this stuff, this is making
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: us less safe. So that makes sense of why you
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: see his approval rating so low and approval of the
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: war so low. Also, you know, the numbers for his
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: economic handling continue to be extremely dire. Only twenty nine
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: percent of the country approves of Trump's economic stewardship. That
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: is the lowest rating in either Trump administrations, and lower
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: than any time in the Biden administration. So Trump has
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: now plunged way below wherein Joe Biden was at the
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: worst parts of his administration.
• 10:30
  Speaker 7: And all of.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: It is based on like, not any you know, there
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: was no there was no COVID, there's no major emergency,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: no terrorist attag like, no. It is all based on
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: his own horrific decision making that he has plunged us
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: into an economic crisis, obviously a global security crisis. And
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: you know, the American people saying we are not down
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: with this, even a significant number of Republicans like you're
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: not doing a good job on this front, which was
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: previously his unique strength.
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Actually, can we flip ahead to CE seven please? This
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: was sorry, no C six. I'm in the mar A
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Lago flip how the Democrats were able to win Trump's
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: hometown Florida House district. So I was looking at a
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: political analyst and what they said, which is the most remarkable,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: is that what they were able to do in this
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: election not only is flip a what was it Trump
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: plus fourteen district? Here, This was a very significant Trump
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: victory district back in twenty twenty four, the GOPN comment.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: I think it was plus twelve and they won it
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: by two, so it was a fourteen point start.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So he won it by nineteen points the GOPN comment
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, and obviously a Democrat just won.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So how did that happen? Well, it's not just over
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: performance of Democratic turnout. Almost the same number of Republicans
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: who are normally identified of Republicans came out to vote.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: What does that tell you? They switched their vote. They
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: actually switched from Republican to Democrat whenever they decided to vote,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: explicitly as an act of protests. And I think that's
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: what's not being captured in all of these MAGA Republican
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: polls is that there are acts, actually genuine swing voters,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: people who voted Republican not only what less than a
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: europe or more than a year ago, ruugh, fifteen months
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: something like that, and are now actually willing to straight
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: up just vote for a Democrat. What an act of protest?
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what I saw is that it was less that
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: the Republicans flipped and more that the Independents are so
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: overwhelmingly opposed at this point that you know, if you
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: have obviously the Democrats are very energized, and then you
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: have independence flooding the zone basically acting like partisan Democrats.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: At this point, how are all your little jerrymanders going
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: to work out? I actually saw a report this morning
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: that I guess Florida did one of these new maps.
• 12:37
  Speaker 7: I'd kind of forgotten about that.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: But in any case, we've talked a lot about the
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Texas jerrymander, and there are some new numbers out about
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: the way Latinos have fled Trump in terms of approving
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: of his presidency after you know, voting for him, like
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: in for republic in very strong numbers. So that Texas
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: jerrymtter we've talked about, but the Florid jerrymater we haven't
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: talked about as much. And there's reporting this morning came
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Jeffrey's announcing they're targeting I think six new seats in
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Florida because of the strength of these results that they
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: just had, and that a bunch of Republican members are
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: getting a little nervous about how these midterms are going
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: to go for them. So you can put C seven
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. You know, this isn't a one off, right,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: It's obviously very symbolically important that the district that literally
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: contains mar A Lago just went blue is very symbolically important.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Democrats have now flipped thirty seats in special elections since
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: Trump won. Republicans have flipped zero. So the scorecard is
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: Democrats thirty, Republicans zero in these special elections. And I
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: know they'll be all kinds of cope about, well, special
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: elections are different than midterm elections, blah blah blah. Many
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: of these elections have had very high turnout, very high turnout,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: and you know, I just I think that the trend
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: is very clear. Will the midterms be you know, on average,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: the shift has been like a fourteen point swing towards Democrats.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: If it's anything approaching that, it's going to be just
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: like a historic even beyond some of the recent title
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: wave elections that we've had. And if we can go
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: back to C five, this generic ballot test just came
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: out from Quinnipiac and so this is where they just say,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: in general, would you prefer Democrat or Republican? Democrats are
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: Republicans control Congress? And in this particular poll, you have
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: Democrats by an eleven point lead. The last poll that
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: this same polster did back in December had Democrats only
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: plus four. Plus four is, by the way, it still
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: very significant number. If you're looking at the entire country
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: D plus eleven again, that is, that's some wild stuff.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: So that's why, you know, Republicans are increasingly getting very
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: nervous about this, and especially as the economy worsens and
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: Trump's approval rating only goes down and He's launched this
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: unpopular war, which not only is a problem because the
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: war itself is unpopular, but it also broadcasts to everyone like, oh,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: he doesn't give a shit about your cost of living.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: He doesn't give a shit about like the things that
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: are making your life miserable and difficult. In fact, his
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: choices are making things worse because I see it every
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: single time I go to the gas pump.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And what I've been looking at, you know,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: with what I've been looking at for the war is
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: that people will look at it and connect it rightly
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: to gas And also fundamentally, what have we been talking
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: about here for an entire month, We've been talking about
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the war. This is why you never want to get
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: into a war, because the war is always going to
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: be the most important story. It should be life and death.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Literally this, you know, the entire ability of our country
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: to project power, this is like essential, it is literally existential.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: That's why we want to avoid them at all costs.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: And in the absence of that, we're not talking about
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: TSA lines which are falling apart. I mean, your country
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: is at war and you got to stay in line
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: for four hours, nuts, right, I mean you're going to
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: be mad, and then your ticket's going to go up.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: I did a little testing but thinking about taking a
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: trip to India to go see my grandparents, to take
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: my daughter over there and to meet them, and I
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: was just looking at the price. I mean it was
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: literally like a direct flight from JFK to New Delhi
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: is going for twenty five hundred dollars in economy, like
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in the back, twenty five hundred each. You're like, oh, okay,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: got it. I remember when those costs like twelve hundred, right,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and so sure, no one's gonna weep for me. But
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I'm just giving an example of how exorbitantly expensive air
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: travel is about to become with two hundred dollars jet
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: fuel because that's almost certainly why the ticket price was
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: where it is. If you want to go visit your
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: sister or something like that. This normal in a country
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: which is literally the size of a continent. It's falling
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: apart when you get there. You're going to have high
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: inflation with rental cars, and then when you have to
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: fill up the gas tank or they'll charge you ten
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: dollars a gallon and you happen to roll up and
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: you just see the four fifty. Somebody in California sent
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: me an image yesterday of seven point thirty a gallon
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: that they were filling up. I'm sure that's one of
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: those outlier stations. But still that shouldn't even exist period.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Like wherever we are as a country, you have all
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: of that happening as a result of the war and
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: drawing attention or even political pressure of political capital from
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: any of the more basic stuff. Not to mention even
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: the interest rates. You talked about bonds and the bond market.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: We're looking at seven percent interest rate right now. I
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: mean that is a nightmare. And then the inability for
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: new graduate center into the economy. So parents even who
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: they may have some money, but I mean ultimately, like
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: what are we all doing here. We're trying to make
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: a better life, you know, for the next generation, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: then you don't feel that so like it just feels
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: like everything societally is slipping away and that's in you
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: as a result explicitly of this war, and that usually
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: leads to major political outcome. So it's all in the
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: White House. It's all on Trump. They decided it. And
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: what's the craziest part is that so many of them
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: were like, we're not going to do this. This is
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: the one thing that we're not going to do, and
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: then they did it, which really makes you question, like
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: how that even happened in the first place. Sure, let's
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: move on, turning now to oil, so Chris still said earlier.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Trump said at one point that Iron had given us
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: some big present, but he couldn't tell us what it is.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Just to remind you all, here's what he had to say.
• 18:09
  Speaker 8: Because they're going to make a deal.
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: They're going to make a deal.
• 18:12
  Speaker 8: They did something yesterday that was amazing. Actually, they gave
• 18:16
  Speaker 8: us a present and the president arrived today and it
• 18:20
  Speaker 8: was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money.
• 18:25
  Speaker 8: And I'm not going to tell you what that present is.
• 18:27
  Speaker 8: But it was a very significant prize and they gave
• 18:34
  Speaker 8: it to us, and they said they were going to
• 18:35
  Speaker 8: give it, so that meant one thing to me, would
• 18:37
  Speaker 8: deal with the right people. No, it wasn't nuclear. It
• 18:42
  Speaker 8: was oil and gas related and it was a very
• 18:44
  Speaker 8: nice thing they did.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: It was oil and gas. So everyone's like, what's the present,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: So let's put this up here on the screen. The
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Times of Israel has learned. The present was safe passage
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: for several fuel tankers through the streets of Horn Moves.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing, though, that was not as a result
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: whatsoever of US diplomacy. Those tankers which were able to
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: gain passage are largely countries and or companies which have
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: been making deals with the Iranians directly had nothing to
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: do with America. I read a very interesting interview with
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: India today yesterday with a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: and he was like, yeah, we're good with India. All
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: your Indian tankers they can go through, but that's because
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: India's dealing with them. And they explicitly said, and we're
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: doing this because you have nothing to do with the
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: war that's being waged against us. This had nothing whatsoever
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: to do with Donald Trump's administration or negotiations period.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wonder if does he believe this is
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: someone selling him this?
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's see that that's nonsense. Likely is that somebody.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Look and if this is true, let's give him credit.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Foreign leaders are probably like, oh, sir, they did it
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: because of you, because of your negotiations, even though it's
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: because of them to make them think he's closer to
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: a deal.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: So I could see that it's because obviously, I mean,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: we've been following this as close as we can, but
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: we've known and it's been public knowledge that and Iran
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: announces this routinely. They're like, the straight up removes is
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: not closed. If you want to pay US two million
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: dollars and you're not involved in the war and you
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: want to denominate and Chinese, you on, come on down.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: We And they've been exporting their oil, you know, at
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: even higher rates than they were previously.
• 20:26
  Speaker 7: With and making more money.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've had effective sanctions relief, so they're actually
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: making bank in this war, which is just you know
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: wild also, and that's with the you know, incent of
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: our leadership, because they want to keep the oil markets calm,
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: by the way, oils back up. Now this morning brunch
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: is over, you know, one hundred dollars, and the stock
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: market is down, et cetera. But in any case, it
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: has always been the case that they've said, hey, we'll
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: let tankers through. The street is not closed, it's just
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: close for you. So if you want to deal with
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: us directly, no problem. And so what looks like it
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: happens is someone came in and convinced Trump of this idea,
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: that this was like a gift to him, that they
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: were letting these tankers through, when this has always been
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the policy that they have announced from the onset.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Maybe we should just let it stand. Then, let's let
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: him believe it if he needs to.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's watching the show anyway, apparently, because
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure we'd be getting this decision making.
• 21:20
  Speaker 7: Okay, I don't think he wants to hear what we
• 21:21
  Speaker 7: have to say.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Let's get to D three, then let's put this up
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: here on the screen. At the same time, there has
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: been major movement in the energy markets. At least forty
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: percent of Russia's current oil export capacity has now been
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: halted as a result of Ukrainian attacks so we actually,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: this is so ironic. The United States is now literally selling, arming,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: or enabling the closure of oil across the world in
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: Ukraine visa VI there attacks on Russia and also are
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: current attacks on Iran. You can't even make this shit up. Now,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: why would the Ukrainians be doing this, Well, they're mad
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: because the Russians are making billions of right now. After
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: already at sea, the Kremlin had booked billions from India,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: who is already gobbling up as much Russian oil as
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: they can. I also want to make this clear, the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Ukrainians right now are in a desperate spot because literally
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: just this morning the news broke that current deliveries that
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: were supposed to be made to Ukraine are very likely
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: going to be made there are going to have to
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: make their way to the Middle East. A lot of
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: these are interceptors, patriot batteries, munitions, other things that have
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: been very useful to the Ukrainians, which the US has
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: continued to supply even though we said we weren't going
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: to do that. Well, a lot of those deliveries are
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: now currently at least considering being re routed for the
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: conflict with Iran, so that would leave Ukraine less defenseless.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: So the only thing that they're trying to do is
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: use their drones to attack all of this Russian oil
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: infrastructure and to make sure that the Kremlin won't make
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of money. Here's the thing, Ukraine doesn't care
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: if we all pay more at the gas pump an
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: existential war of survival, but for the rest of us
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: this is a disaster. We're literally enabling the Ukrainians going after,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: you know, the crown jewel currently of the Russian economy,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the only read reason that they're even still in this fight.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: So thank you Ukraine. I also want to mention the
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: more desperate they get, there's some crazy shit that they've
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: been up to. So you probably haven't seen this story.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: In India, they arrested a bunch of Ukrainian nationals and
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: a US mercenary. This guy named Matthew Van Dyke, who
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: actually knew from back in the day is old mercenaries
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: talked him on Twitter because he was a good source. Well,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: it turns out he was arrested by the Indian government
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: for allegedly trying to train Indian separatist groups with a
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: bunch of Ukrainians to conduct drone warfare inside of India.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: So who's the number one buyer of Russian oil India?
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: All right, right?
• 23:46
  Speaker 9: Who?
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: The Ukrainians are very upset with. Ukrainians are using drones
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: to lash out and to go after all this oil infrastructure.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: The more desperate that they get, they could be up
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: you know in Nordstream, which they obviously did with our help.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: We should be worried because for them, if they see
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the arms deliveries start to dry up and all this
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: money going to the Kremlin, that's where they're going to
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: do the craziest stuff. Yeah, this really worries me.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: And there's new reporting that we are, i mean predictably
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: going to shift some of our sources from and military
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: fut in front WUS train over to the Middle East.
• 24:16
  Speaker 7: And yeah, I mean Russia has.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: Been one of maybe the biggest beneficiary of our foreign
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Iran because they're able to sell their oil at premium.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: We lifted some of the sanctions that are letting more
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: countries buy their oil. So yeah, the Ukrainians are seeing
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: that and going Okay, we've got a big problem. So
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: now they're trying to take more barrels of oil offline.
• 24:36
  Speaker 7: I just looking at a Wall Street Journal article.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: The other problem is that you know, previously in different
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: energy crises, LNG was kind of the backup. But you know,
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: the backup itself has been degraded and is under threat.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: The Wall Street Journal rights so warn Iran has fractured
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: every node of the regional LNG supply chain. Iranian strikes
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: on Qatar, one of the world's top LNG producers, have
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: damaged its Roslofon facility, knocking out some seventeen percent percent
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: of its capacity for up to five years, and delayed
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: the country's massive expansion plans. On Tuesday, Guitar Energy declared
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: force majure on some of its energy supply contracts, including
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: customers in China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. Meanwhile, shipping
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: through the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries around a
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: fifth of global energy, is paralyzed by our confidence, and
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Gulf supply has also been undermined. Then, they say, even
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: if even if Trump and Iron agree to end the
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: war soon, the consequences for the lergy market will be
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: long lasting and even more profound than for oil. So
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: even if An ends tomorrow. They're saying this is going
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: to reverberate. I also saw an estimate today of inflation,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: significant inflation already based on where we're already at in
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: the war for the.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Year, and you are the current track. Remember let's take
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: you on at its word. Who knows that they'll be
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: able to achieve it. They want two hundred of barrel,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: So let's put D four up here on the screen.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: This is there's been some interesting movement actually, and I
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: do want to flag this. There actually has been a
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: overall decrease in the price of physics oil. And the
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: reason I'm flagging it is there's no real explanation as
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to why. There is some theory that there was a
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: single buyer that was bidding up the price, and now
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: it's coming back down to reality, which is where around
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: one hundred and ten dollars a barrel, which is roughly
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: where the price of Brent is right now, like at
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: one hundred and I think what is West Texas something
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: like eighty nine ninety dollars per barrel. But the bigger
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: issue is that the physical supply problem does eventually have
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: to catch up with market and the current expectation for
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of these markets. Is that all of these
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: signals from Trump about oh, we're going to back down
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: or we're going to have some sort of deal, it's
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: the job owning from the administration, from the Israelis about
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: potential ceasefire. All of that is to buy them as
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: much runway as possible. And for some reason, that's what
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of people believe. But at the end of
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the day, the LNG and the oil math will eventually
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: catch up in some respect to where things are. And
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: even though that may not result and two hundred a barrel,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: if we're going to live for the next two years
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: at ninety to one hundred to one hundred and twenty
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: something like, that's still really bad. I mean, four dollars
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: a gallon for gas for years is a serious economic
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: problem and actually will cause very high inflation, not to
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: mention the jet fuel problem I talked about earlier, as
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: well as diesel, which remains well over five dollars a gallon. Actually,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: to this point, let's put D five up there on
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the screen. They make this exact point in the New
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: York Times. High oil and gas could outlast the war
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: with Iran. His promised rapid relief. Americans will feel the
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: financial sting for some time after it ends, because they
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: point exactly to this massive increase in oil price as
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: well as diesel with no real supply that we'll be
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: able to make up all of the backlog in the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: near or the interim period, especially with a global commodity.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: You can do your best with the strategic petroleum reserve,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: with gas taxes and the Jones Act and all that,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: but it's just not going to be able to do
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: very much. And our own aging infrastructure has a problem.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Let's put D six up. Many of you may have
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: seen this. The Valero Port Arthur refinery had a big
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: fire at the diesel hydrotreater. I don't know what that is,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: but I did ask around. It's like a specific, very
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: important part of the of the actual refinery. Remember, we
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: have not built any new refineries in the United States
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: in decades. Most of them are operating on very old technology.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of environmental regulations, et cetera around it.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: So we're super reliant on a very few number of
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: refineries which are not in the best condition. And so
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: whether this is an industrial accident, industrial esponage, who knows.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: We have no idea, but it is something, and of
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: course it's an indicator, especially at a time when we're
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: out here threatening the entire energy infrastructure of all of Iran. Yeah,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: that's what's scary.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: It's another vulnerability. So in a filing they said it
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: was due to an unforseeable release of process fluid and
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: complex too, so whatever that means, some sort of industrial accident.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: But in any case, the refineinery issue is also the
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: reason why even if an export ban was implemented, it
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: likely wouldn't solve the problem for US and obviously would
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: completely score the screw the rest of the world, because
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: we just don't have the refinery capacity to deal with
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: the specific type of oil that we have here in
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: the US. Last piece here, let's put D eight. We've
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: got new Iranian threats against the Red Sea. Was that
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: was the other one, which obviously a very significant thing
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: to watch, and another escalation potential that they that they
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: obviously have in any case, this is the decline in
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: crude oil exports across any number of countries. So Kuwait
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: is down seventy two percent, a Rock North is down
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: forty nine percent, a Rock South is down seventy six percent,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Saudi is down fifty two percent, and then you have
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: some increases, some small increases in from ran lol Oman
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: plus seven percent and Russia plus fourteen percent, although I
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: suspect that will be hindered by this Ukrainian attack. But
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: in any case, this is com pairing this month versus
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: the first twenty three days of February twenty twenty six.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: So month over month, how are we looking. That's the
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: you know, that's the reality. And you can you can
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: talk a good game as much as you want, you
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: can do as much market manipulation as you want to
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: try to do if you're President Trump and Scott Bessett
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: and the rest of the team. But at the end
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: of the day, this is a physical good that you
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: know has a tangible reality associated with it, unlike most
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: of the stock market.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Exactly right, All right, let's get to Professor Robert Pape
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: standing by joining us again is Professor Robert Pape over
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the University of Chicago. He is also the author of
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the Escalation Trap on Substack, a great substack, which we
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: highly recommend, and we'll have a link down in the description.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: But he's joining us once again to talk specifically about
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: the theory and framework which he has invented and now
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: popularized the escalation trap, and how many of the current
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: events in Iran fit very specifically into the frameworks and systems.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: He's late. So, sir, first of all, thank you so
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: much for joining us again. It's great to see you.
• 31:03
  Speaker 9: It's really great to be here again, and thank you
• 31:07
  Speaker 9: for all the explanation here that we're able to give
• 31:11
  Speaker 9: to this audience. I see a hunger for this, and
• 31:13
  Speaker 9: I really appreciate what you're doing.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Of course, and likewise because we wouldn't be able to
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: do it with somebody like you. So we did actually
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: flag a very interesting segment that former Sentcom Commander Secretary
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: of Defense Jim Mattis actually gave at a recent conference
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: where he warned very much of how you should not
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: confuse targetry with strategy. Let's take listen to what he
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: said and we'll get your reaction.
• 31:36
  Speaker 10: A situation where targetry never makes up for a lack
• 31:41
  Speaker 10: of strategy, and by that I mean fifteen thousand targets
• 31:45
  Speaker 10: have been hit. There have been significant military successes, but
• 31:49
  Speaker 10: they are not matched by strategic outcomes. Now, some of
• 31:54
  Speaker 10: the strategic outcomes early on unconditional surrender, regime change, going
• 32:00
  Speaker 10: to dictate who the next supremelyri is. Those were clearly nonsense,
• 32:05
  Speaker 10: those were delusional.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Clearly nonsense and delusional. Professor, These are sobering words from
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: the former Secretary of Defense here, Jim Madison. How does
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: it fit with the current option set that we have
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: in front of us for what's going to happen next
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: to Iran?
• 32:20
  Speaker 9: Well, what we are watching now is not a path
• 32:24
  Speaker 9: to peace. It is the escalation trap both sides. I
• 32:30
  Speaker 9: believe Iran in the United States believe they're managing this conflict. However,
• 32:36
  Speaker 9: they are heading into a wider war, a longer war,
• 32:41
  Speaker 9: and a more disastrous war. What you're seeing with Secretary
• 32:46
  Speaker 9: Madis is an indicator. He almost never speaks publicly, and
• 32:53
  Speaker 9: when he speaks, he almost never criticizes his former boss,
• 32:58
  Speaker 9: President Trump. The fact that he's speaking at all and
• 33:02
  Speaker 9: criticizing Trump is important. Second thing to note is this
• 33:07
  Speaker 9: framework that I've been offering here, the difference between tactical
• 33:11
  Speaker 9: success and strategic success. I think in part to your program,
• 33:17
  Speaker 9: other programs, the sub stack. This is helping to make
• 33:21
  Speaker 9: sense of what otherwise appears chaotic to so many people,
• 33:26
  Speaker 9: which is how can our bombs hit targets, and yet
• 33:30
  Speaker 9: we're getting sucked into what appears to be this wider,
• 33:34
  Speaker 9: longer war, the administration asking for two hundred billion dollars more.
• 33:39
  Speaker 9: How does all that make sense? Well, these simple frameworks
• 33:43
  Speaker 9: that I'm offering, you're seeing it's not just helpful for me,
• 33:46
  Speaker 9: not just for a professor. It's really helpful to make
• 33:50
  Speaker 9: sense of what's otherwise just a confusing situation, and he's
• 33:54
  Speaker 9: using them.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: Let me go ahead and get your reaction to this
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: new report that just came out this morning. For Barackravid,
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: who is very close with US officials and also Israeli officials,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: usually sort of prints the things that they give to him,
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: and so it says your Pentagon prepares for massive quote
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: final blow of Iran wore the idea here, seeming to
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: be another escalate to de escalate idea. They floated four
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: different options. Number one invading or blockading carg Island. Number
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: two invading Laracan Island that helps Iran solidify its control
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: of Straight of Hormuz.
• 34:26
  Speaker 7: Number three seizing a different strategic.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Island named Abu Musa in two smaller islands which lie
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: near the western entrance to the Straight and are controlled
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: by Iran, but also claimed by the UAE and number
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: four blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: on the eastern side of the Hormuz straight. They also
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: theorized that there could be some sort of an option
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: to try to go in and seize loose nuclear material,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: which is something we have heard before as an idea.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: So what do you make of this report and also
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: how does it fit in with the with the.
• 35:02
  Speaker 7: Claims from Trump that oh, we're negotiating.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: With the Iranians and net Yahoo apparently leaked to his
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: breast that we think there's going to be a ceasefire
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: this weekend.
• 35:11
  Speaker 9: So what this is is very strong evidence that we're
• 35:14
  Speaker 9: heading towards stage three of the escalation trap that I
• 35:18
  Speaker 9: outlined on the sub stack days before the first bomb fell.
• 35:23
  Speaker 9: So I explained Stage one would be bombing, attack the leaders,
• 35:28
  Speaker 9: We would hit target, likely kill leaders. Stage two would
• 35:32
  Speaker 9: be Iran would lash back. And they've now lashed back,
• 35:36
  Speaker 9: not just hitting the GCC countries but taking the Strait
• 35:40
  Speaker 9: of Hormuz. They are more powerful than they were before,
• 35:43
  Speaker 9: both dangerous and powerful. And then I said this would
• 35:46
  Speaker 9: drive us to stage three, and I said it would
• 35:49
  Speaker 9: be framed as limited limited territorial conquest, and that idea
• 35:55
  Speaker 9: of limited we should understand what that is is not
• 35:59
  Speaker 9: anything like a final set of moves. That's the beginning
• 36:04
  Speaker 9: of stage three, which will then become irreversible. The true
• 36:09
  Speaker 9: redline here that makes it really impossible to walk back
• 36:14
  Speaker 9: from is going to be any of those options you
• 36:17
  Speaker 9: just laid out that. Now they're going through it, and
• 36:20
  Speaker 9: it doesn't really matter which one, because all of them
• 36:23
  Speaker 9: are going to include deaths by our troops, much more
• 36:28
  Speaker 9: than we have. And as those troops die, and we
• 36:32
  Speaker 9: will try to keep this to a minimum I've taught
• 36:35
  Speaker 9: for the US Air Force, I have confidence will try.
• 36:38
  Speaker 9: But as they die, the thirty five to thirty six
• 36:42
  Speaker 9: percent of the public supporting this war will harden. They
• 36:46
  Speaker 9: will themselves psychologically double down. This is what I deal with,
• 36:49
  Speaker 9: ideal with action at military action and politics not just
• 36:53
  Speaker 9: in the enemy country but in our own. And this
• 36:56
  Speaker 9: is how you get that hardening, because that thirty six
• 37:00
  Speaker 9: percent will say to themselves quietly or publicly, those one
• 37:04
  Speaker 9: hundred or two hundred marines, set eighty parachuters died for me,
• 37:10
  Speaker 9: and I don't want their deaths to be wasted. That's
• 37:14
  Speaker 9: how you get the continuous double down. That's how then
• 37:18
  Speaker 9: this becomes really politically almost impossible to stop and you
• 37:23
  Speaker 9: end up with likely something like starting with a limited
• 37:27
  Speaker 9: operation that expands to perhaps a three to six month
• 37:31
  Speaker 9: war of attrition. That is where stage three, that's that
• 37:35
  Speaker 9: red line of stage three. I've been laying this out
• 37:39
  Speaker 9: and you're seeing strong indicators that this is not a
• 37:42
  Speaker 9: path to piece. We're heading right to stage three, and
• 37:46
  Speaker 9: stage three is a cliff and it is not like
• 37:50
  Speaker 9: the other stages. Each of these three stages is a
• 37:54
  Speaker 9: phase level, not just more attack, phase level of the
• 37:59
  Speaker 9: escalation trap. And this will be the key red line.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Professor. I've been thinking about you so much, especially with
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: those words final blow. I'm like, I've never heard that
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: before except in every conflict ever. You have a tweet
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: here e six we can put up here on the screen,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: which is North Vietnam. How they were able to use
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: negotiations to deep indivisions in the US. I'm just wondering
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: if you could lay out the historical parallel of where
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: we are to that political aspect of our population.
• 38:30
  Speaker 9: There are so many parallels to the Vietnam War. It's stunning.
• 38:35
  Speaker 9: Pete Haig says, sounds just like Robert McNamara, where the
• 38:39
  Speaker 9: Pentagon inching up, ratcheting up, moving up the escalation run.
• 38:44
  Speaker 9: We're just about just one more blow and we will
• 38:47
  Speaker 9: find the breaking point. That was the famous phrase used
• 38:52
  Speaker 9: in the with mac namara and the Johnson administration in
• 38:57
  Speaker 9: the Vietnam War, We're gonna get their breaking point. Well,
• 39:00
  Speaker 9: notice this is exactly the same rhetoric, almost word for word,
• 39:05
  Speaker 9: out of the President and Pete HEGs. And then if
• 39:08
  Speaker 9: you look at what is occurring at each stage of
• 39:11
  Speaker 9: the incremental escalation, which we swore we would never do again,
• 39:16
  Speaker 9: at each stage of the incremental escalation, you have tactical success.
• 39:21
  Speaker 9: We win a tactical outcome, but we don't get a
• 39:24
  Speaker 9: strategic outcome. The other side is not collapsing, it's in
• 39:28
  Speaker 9: fact hardening. It's doing things to hurt us in really hard,
• 39:33
  Speaker 9: powerful ways, and even worse than the Vietnam War. The
• 39:37
  Speaker 9: Vietnamese never controlled twenty percent of the world's oil. So
• 39:42
  Speaker 9: this is Vietnam essentially on steroids now, because you have
• 39:47
  Speaker 9: not just the escalation dynamics of the Vietnam War playing
• 39:51
  Speaker 9: themselves again right in front of our eyes, but the
• 39:55
  Speaker 9: stakes are much bigger than the Vietnam War, and it's
• 40:00
  Speaker 9: because Iran has a grip on the throat of the
• 40:05
  Speaker 9: world's economy. Twenty percent of the world's oil is huge,
• 40:09
  Speaker 9: and what have they been threatening just in the last
• 40:11
  Speaker 9: twenty four hours. They're going to expand that to the
• 40:14
  Speaker 9: Red Sea, they're now saying, and that could be with
• 40:17
  Speaker 9: the Hoothis. Keep in mind a year ago when President
• 40:20
  Speaker 9: Trump did a one month air campaign against the Houthies.
• 40:24
  Speaker 9: He failed. He's had to give it up and say, oh,
• 40:26
  Speaker 9: can't beat the hoo Thi's gonna have to go find
• 40:28
  Speaker 9: something out. So this isn't like we can't we haven't
• 40:31
  Speaker 9: beaten Iran, and the idea that now we're about to
• 40:33
  Speaker 9: beat we haven't beaten the Hoothies yet. And now they
• 40:37
  Speaker 9: are on deck here. So think about this, they're on deck.
• 40:40
  Speaker 9: That's another five seven percent of the world's oil. This
• 40:45
  Speaker 9: is now we're we're we're not going to be able
• 40:47
  Speaker 9: to talk down the price of oil much longer at
• 40:50
  Speaker 9: this rate.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: Let's put E five up on the screen because you're
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: talking about the political dyning invention of this, which obviously
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: is extremely important. We have, you know, we're already in
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: midterm season and there's all kinds of primaries going on.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: People are big in their candidates. You know, it is
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: truly right around the corner. And to your point, the
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: war is already very unpopular, and usually usually wars are
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: actually pretty popular when they start. It's only later that
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: they become unpopular. But you can see the opposition number
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: ticking up day by day. At the same time we
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: talked about this some earlier in the show, President Trump's
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: approval rating is ticking down.
• 41:23
  Speaker 7: Day by day.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: There was a new poll that had him out at
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: a new low of thirty six percent approval rating. So,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: as you know, if we move into this next stage,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: you're saying that the support that exists for the war
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: will harden.
• 41:36
  Speaker 7: What about with the rest of the public, what will
• 41:38
  Speaker 7: that look like?
• 41:39
  Speaker 9: It will fracture even more So. I realize you may
• 41:44
  Speaker 9: not know, but in September I have a big book
• 41:47
  Speaker 9: coming out about American political violence. And my nightmare scenario
• 41:53
  Speaker 9: has been for several years that we would have this
• 41:57
  Speaker 9: trajectory of what's happening in a mayor domestically, and you
• 42:02
  Speaker 9: can already see we had Chicago, Minneapolis, et cetera, et cetera,
• 42:05
  Speaker 9: and a mega international crisis like Iran happened at exactly
• 42:10
  Speaker 9: the same time. And what you are seeing here is
• 42:14
  Speaker 9: the evidence that this was a real This was right
• 42:17
  Speaker 9: to have the fear, because that chart you just showed
• 42:20
  Speaker 9: that's historically unprecedented here as long as we've been doing
• 42:24
  Speaker 9: polling now, we don't know what happened before the nineteen
• 42:27
  Speaker 9: thirty so we don't have polling going back that you know,
• 42:30
  Speaker 9: one hundred and fifty years or two hundred years. But nonetheless,
• 42:33
  Speaker 9: if you go back here to when we started polling,
• 42:36
  Speaker 9: we don't see that the American public normally rallies around
• 42:41
  Speaker 9: a president when they use force and has in all
• 42:44
  Speaker 9: these other cases, and airpower in particular, there's the promise
• 42:49
  Speaker 9: of quick victory, no cost, so you tend to get
• 42:52
  Speaker 9: even more rally around the flag with airpower. That's not
• 42:56
  Speaker 9: happening here. So we're starting already, and what's unfortunately we're
• 43:01
  Speaker 9: heading toward, and this is if we go off a
• 43:05
  Speaker 9: cliff internationally, there's an iceberg we're going to hit as
• 43:09
  Speaker 9: a country in the fall. That's what I'll be talking
• 43:13
  Speaker 9: about then, because I will explain we're heading to what
• 43:16
  Speaker 9: I call fractured legitimacy, a new term. So remember, I
• 43:21
  Speaker 9: do the frameworks. You're about to get a new framework,
• 43:24
  Speaker 9: I'm sorry to say. And it's the book's already coming.
• 43:28
  Speaker 9: They're already being printed, they're already coming out. It's the
• 43:32
  Speaker 9: new Press. So they'll be very glad I'm telling you
• 43:35
  Speaker 9: about this right now. They're waiting for me on the
• 43:37
  Speaker 9: other end of this call. And so I'm just pointing
• 43:40
  Speaker 9: out that unfortunately, this is not just simply another international problem.
• 43:45
  Speaker 9: It's actually the worst international problem. This will be bigger
• 43:50
  Speaker 9: than Iraq, could be more costly in American military lives
• 43:56
  Speaker 9: than Iraq. That was four point four, That was a
• 43:59
  Speaker 9: four thousand, one hundred. But it will surely be more
• 44:03
  Speaker 9: costly geopolitically and with the world economy than Iraq. And
• 44:09
  Speaker 9: so what we are heading toward are these lines crossing
• 44:14
  Speaker 9: in September. And this is really unprecedented for our country,
• 44:21
  Speaker 9: beyond unprecedented. So I'm very concerned about those numbers.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, just thinking off of the top of my head,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: like some historical parallel, what are you thinking October nineteen seventeen,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: you know, Russia, like World War One?
• 44:34
  Speaker 9: I meant, no, I'm going to explain that again, you're
• 44:39
  Speaker 9: trying to get me to get the book out. I understand. No,
• 44:43
  Speaker 9: I don't know the nightmare scenarios. People are talking about
• 44:46
  Speaker 9: the civil war scenarios here. They're just not helpful because
• 44:50
  Speaker 9: they're not realistic the movie, you know, Bad After Battle,
• 44:53
  Speaker 9: you know. So what we have here right now is
• 44:56
  Speaker 9: you have people that are novelists. You have people following
• 44:59
  Speaker 9: this making money on this. Here, you just don't have
• 45:04
  Speaker 9: the escalation framework person or people who've been focusing on
• 45:08
  Speaker 9: that for thirty years. You have people say, oh, I
• 45:11
  Speaker 9: can catch that, I can catch that wave. This isn't
• 45:14
  Speaker 9: what this book is about. This is not a Johnny
• 45:17
  Speaker 9: Come Lately. I've been working on this book for five
• 45:20
  Speaker 9: solid years. And that will be clear with all the data.
• 45:25
  Speaker 9: There will be five years of opinion polled data that
• 45:28
  Speaker 9: I've collected here, and we have nobody has that twenty
• 45:33
  Speaker 9: years of our twenty national surveys over five years on
• 45:38
  Speaker 9: the support for political violence in the United States. So again,
• 45:41
  Speaker 9: this isn't just a quick book to kind of catch
• 45:44
  Speaker 9: up to a wave you will see when the book
• 45:46
  Speaker 9: comes out. This is a complete this This is again
• 45:49
  Speaker 9: like the escalation trap. What you are seeing is not
• 45:52
  Speaker 9: the product of instant reaction. You're seeing that there's somebody
• 45:57
  Speaker 9: who's been focusing on these issues four years, Aron Moore
• 46:02
  Speaker 9: twenty years, American political violence five years, Well that and
• 46:07
  Speaker 9: then is married to frameworks, and you're seeing the frameworks
• 46:12
  Speaker 9: are valuable and that I will offer even more frameworks
• 46:17
  Speaker 9: down the road. But for this crisis, I just want
• 46:19
  Speaker 9: to point out we really need to just understand that
• 46:23
  Speaker 9: when we hit that stage three as we're heading toward,
• 46:27
  Speaker 9: we haven't hit there yet, and I'm doing everything I
• 46:29
  Speaker 9: can to try to pull us back from that. But
• 46:32
  Speaker 9: what that's going to do to that thirty six thirty
• 46:34
  Speaker 9: nine percent you showed is it's likely going to harden
• 46:38
  Speaker 9: it initially and see the public the bottom did not
• 46:42
  Speaker 9: fall out by the public and the Vietnam War like overnight.
• 46:45
  Speaker 9: And it's not a linear thing exactly with casualties, although
• 46:49
  Speaker 9: it does tend to sort of go there. Need to
• 46:51
  Speaker 9: understand that there are people supporting this war, and as
• 46:55
  Speaker 9: people die for them for their position, they will be sticky.
• 47:02
  Speaker 9: Much like there were people very angry when we withdrew
• 47:04
  Speaker 9: from Afghanistan. So you will see a similar dynamic here now.
• 47:10
  Speaker 9: Over time, it will likely come down, but that may
• 47:14
  Speaker 9: not happen for a period of months. We just need
• 47:17
  Speaker 9: to be aware. That's the stickiness here, because we're going
• 47:21
  Speaker 9: to permanent losses and that's going to have a political role.
• 47:25
  Speaker 9: Now the other sixty percent, they're going to harden two.
• 47:28
  Speaker 9: So this is what we're facing. It's facing a fracture.
• 47:32
  Speaker 9: But as that fractures, you are still have a president
• 47:37
  Speaker 9: in office. That president controls the use of force, and
• 47:41
  Speaker 9: so you may well see this doubling down. And I
• 47:45
  Speaker 9: think you're in it. You're heading toward. If we cross
• 47:47
  Speaker 9: into any of those ground scenarios here, no matter who allies,
• 47:54
  Speaker 9: no matter who else comes, you are likely to see
• 47:57
  Speaker 9: this month's long war of attrition. And then you haven't
• 48:01
  Speaker 9: seen anything yet with the global economy. The shocks we've
• 48:04
  Speaker 9: seen so far, these have all been mitigated by talking
• 48:07
  Speaker 9: down the price. That's not going to be possible once
• 48:09
  Speaker 9: we crossed phase three.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Wow, professor, just last question for you. I think here,
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: as we prepare for the end of the deadline, you're
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: saying that any sort of ground scenario basically enables Stage
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: three to begin, but it will probably have an attrition.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Is there simply no way you think in your framework
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: or there could be some quote limited operation.
• 48:32
  Speaker 9: Well, no, because what you would do, like, let's imagine,
• 48:35
  Speaker 9: let's just take one of those four scenarios eighty second airborne.
• 48:39
  Speaker 9: That's about what you would need a thousand paratroopers to
• 48:42
  Speaker 9: take the airport on Karj Island. Then you would try
• 48:45
  Speaker 9: to reinforce that. But it's a thousand. So let's say
• 48:48
  Speaker 9: you only took the airport on Krje Island. Let's say
• 48:52
  Speaker 9: you know, dozens, maybe even one hundred die as they're
• 48:54
  Speaker 9: coming down because they're being shot at as they're coming
• 48:57
  Speaker 9: down in the parachutes. So you've now got the But
• 49:00
  Speaker 9: then are you just gonna leave them there? And how
• 49:02
  Speaker 9: are you gonna get them back? You see? Are you
• 49:05
  Speaker 9: gonna fly in see one thirties to get them out?
• 49:09
  Speaker 9: Are you gonna fly in osprey's to get them out?
• 49:12
  Speaker 9: What exactly are we gonna do once we got them there?
• 49:16
  Speaker 9: Because see, they can they're the pointy end of the spirit,
• 49:19
  Speaker 9: meaning they take the entry point, but they don't hold
• 49:23
  Speaker 9: the entry point, they don't reinforce the entry point, and
• 49:27
  Speaker 9: after a few days they're gonna run out of food
• 49:29
  Speaker 9: and water. So you really can't you've got to make
• 49:33
  Speaker 9: a decision. So you now have a thousand people, and
• 49:35
  Speaker 9: yes you lost some portion just to get them there
• 49:38
  Speaker 9: in the first twenty four thirty six hours or so forth.
• 49:41
  Speaker 9: But now they're there, and are we gonna walk from
• 49:44
  Speaker 9: a thousand people? Because it seems like the Iranians are
• 49:48
  Speaker 9: up for killing every single one. So I think this
• 49:51
  Speaker 9: is really how you then why that word limited, I
• 49:55
  Speaker 9: think is really disingenuous. It's not I do use it
• 50:00
  Speaker 9: put in scare quotes because that is how I thought
• 50:02
  Speaker 9: it would be sold to the public. It is how
• 50:04
  Speaker 9: it's being sold. But I think we should be under
• 50:07
  Speaker 9: no illusion that there's an actual equilibrium point. The only
• 50:11
  Speaker 9: equilibrium point is if the Iranians say we changed our mind,
• 50:14
  Speaker 9: We're suddenly going to give up the straight of horm moves,
• 50:17
  Speaker 9: welcome you in with open arms. Here we're just seeing
• 50:21
  Speaker 9: no sign of that in this regime. And the regime
• 50:23
  Speaker 9: just killed twenty thousand to thirty thousand of its own
• 50:26
  Speaker 9: people to stay in power. Why are they not going
• 50:30
  Speaker 9: to kill Americans and every single one they can get?
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: Well? Scary stuff, but as always, we enjoy talking to you, sir.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining US escalations happening.
• 50:39
  Speaker 9: You very much for letting us explain this to your
• 50:42
  Speaker 9: great audience.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, ser a pleasure.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: So, as you guys know, Ryan is just back from Cuba,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: where he was there on a reporting trip along with
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: a group that was bringing significant amount of aid to
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: the island which is blockaded by the choice of our
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: own government, with catastrophic consequence is for all Cubans there
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: on the island, which he was able to document some
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: of and talk to Emily about yesterday. I'm sure, Sager,
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: you've seen like all the shit he's taken over. I've
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: seen the dumbest little possible things.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Ever, what is it staying in hotels which you're required.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Which you're required to stay in, yes, and the fact
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: that the hotels have electricity but the hospitals don't, which
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: is a choice of the Trump administration which is allowing
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: fuel sales to private businesses but not public entities like
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: the hospitals, which are of course publicly owned.
• 51:28
  Speaker 7: Famously, and I'm.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Sure Ryan would have happily had the hospital have energy
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: as opposed to oh my god, not like exactly it
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: was up to him. He also went there just try
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: and report and get information on what he's brought back
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: is honestly harrowing. And look, everyone needs to pay attention
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: because did you have you noticed all these Cubans. They're like, Hey,
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: you did Venezuela, and you did Iran, We're next.
• 51:48
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: And if you go outside mar A Lago, you've got
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: all of these Cuba signs that are all up right now.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: They're all living in Florida. Remember, there's a very powerful
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: political lobby. You've got a Cuban who's literally the US
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State and said, I think his father's dying
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: wish was to make sure that communism was rid of Cuba.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: You've got these ultimatums that are have so we are
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: not ruling this out. Also, very undernoticed two new amphibious
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I forget exactly the term, the specific type of ship
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: on their way to the Caribbean. Oh really Yeah, So
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: just because just because we withdrew some there are still
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: US naval assets which are actually moving back to the
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: Caribbean and to keep some sort of force posture there
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: in the case that we go after Cuba. Trump, what
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: did he say?
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: He said, it will be our privilege, it will be
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: my privilege to take it said I will take Cuba.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: It will be my privilege. Many presidents have wanted to
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: It will be my privilege to take the island. Reporters
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: were like, what does that mean? And here's the thing
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: is Well, one other update to give you guys before
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: I throw this interview that Ryan did with a high
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: level Cuban official, the Carlos Cassio, who is the Cuban
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: deputy Foreign minister. Yesterday, some of the activists who are
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: part of that trip were coming back flying through Miami
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: and they were all detained and interrogated and had their
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: phone seized by US immigration authorities. Here, you know, obvious
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: and blatant attempt at intimidation. So these are the type
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: of you know, authoritarian tactics that this administration is happy,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: happy to deploy. But I'm going to throw this interview.
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: But one of the things Ryan wanted to make sure
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: that we note is that, you know, unlike Ron where
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: they're like we're done negotiating, like you're gonna have to
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: feel pain, and no we're not. You know, we're not
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: coming to the table with you again, so you can
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: murder us again. The Cubans are open to making some
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: kind of deal. You know, sort of similar to the
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Venezuela situation where Mador was like, I will give you
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: literal gold, I will do business with you with the
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: like I have lots of things we can do together.
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Come and let's make a deal. But Trump preferred to
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: just like kidnap him, and, you know, in this very
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: colonial way, effectively take over the country. I know, who
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: was it that just came back with a bunch of
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: gold from there? Oh, Doug Bergram, I think came back
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: with a bunch of gold from Venezuela. So in any case,
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: it's a similar dynamic where the Cubans are like, no,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: we'll we will work out a deal with you, but
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: the Trump administration is apparent apparently wholly uninterested in that.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: So in this interview with Carlos Cossio, the Cuban Deputy
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: four ad minister, you'll hear him talking about how they're
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: open to offering even compensation to American companies as part of.
• 54:13
  Speaker 7: A broader deal.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: So, with all of that being said, here is Ryan
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: interviewing that Cuban official.
• 54:19
  Speaker 11: Thank you so much for agreeing to do this. I
• 54:21
  Speaker 11: really appreciate it.
• 54:23
  Speaker 12: So as you're as your country is entering into negotiations
• 54:26
  Speaker 12: with the United States.
• 54:29
  Speaker 11: I'm wondering how much it is in.
• 54:31
  Speaker 12: The back of the mind of negotiators that the United
• 54:33
  Speaker 12: States twice entered into negotiations with Iran and in the
• 54:39
  Speaker 12: middle of those.
• 54:40
  Speaker 11: Negotiations started wars.
• 54:42
  Speaker 12: Recently and then back in June, Palestinian negotiators have also
• 54:47
  Speaker 12: been attacked. What is that done to the structure and
• 54:52
  Speaker 12: the psychology of negotiations with the United with the United States?
• 54:57
  Speaker 11: Is it something that's in your head.
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: It's very present in our mind. We see what happens,
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: We have experience, and we take that into account. The
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: problem is that we have or the issue not the problem,
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: is that we have a standing position of trying to
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: find our problems or to solve our problems with any country,
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: and that includes the United States through dialogue, respectful and
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: responsible dialog based on international law and respect to sovereignty
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: of both countries. And one would ask, well, do you
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: trust it? We see no alternative. We believe it's the
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: only way in which we can find solution to the
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: issues between Cuba and the United States, and we truly
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: believe that they could be found. We don't think that
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: our two countries should live forever in hostility. There's no
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: animosity from Cuba to the United States. To give you
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: an idea, there's never been a burning out of American
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: flag in Cuba that I know or that anyone knows of.
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: There is no conflict of an ethnical of a cultural
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: nature with the United States. In fact, we have quite
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: a close relationship with many people of the United States
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: that visit US directly or indirectly, and that engage with
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: US in many areas in arts, culture, sports, science, in
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: many areas. So we were ready to sit down now.
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: We also have another experience, which is that in previous
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: engagements with the United States, including the most meaningful one
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: in twenty fifteen, for sixteen seventeen, Cuba fulfilled all of
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: the commitments of which we agreed upon. The US failed
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: on most of them. And it's not that we say it.
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: People who participated in that process acknowledge it, and the
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: government of the United States declared it openly that they
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: would not feel that they were bound by those agreements
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: and that they would break it. So we also have
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: that experience, but that does not stop us from exploring
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: and accepting an invitation by the US to sit down
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: and have a dial.
• 57:02
  Speaker 12: You recently talked about how Cuba is open to allowing
• 57:07
  Speaker 12: Cuban nationals or Cuban Americans to live in the United
• 57:10
  Speaker 12: States or or investors from the United States investing here
• 57:14
  Speaker 12: in Cuba, which isn't which isn't necessarily new, but it
• 57:18
  Speaker 12: was it was reported in the United States as if
• 57:21
  Speaker 12: that was new. But one of the chief obstacles there
• 57:24
  Speaker 12: is that as as you know, if there is that
• 57:27
  Speaker 12: investment that has made you will then have other investors
• 57:31
  Speaker 12: go to US courts and say and claim that no,
• 57:34
  Speaker 12: that is that's compensated.
• 57:36
  Speaker 11: You know, that is that's stolen property. You know that
• 57:39
  Speaker 11: is my property.
• 57:40
  Speaker 12: You go to court helms Burton and the court will say, okay,
• 57:45
  Speaker 12: well now you you know, eurowed a billion dollars because
• 57:49
  Speaker 12: they traded your stolen property. So how do you how
• 57:52
  Speaker 12: do how does Cuba envision moving past that kind of
• 57:57
  Speaker 12: catch twenty two? You there can't be foreign investment from
• 58:00
  Speaker 12: the United States if other investors can go to US
• 58:03
  Speaker 12: courts and seize that investment.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: Well, first, it's not totally new, but the scope with
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: which we're doing it and the openness which we're doing
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: it today, and the facilities that we're putting in place
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: isn't new for and also I say the scope because
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: we're talking about small investment, but also big investment.
• 58:25
  Speaker 11: Would be an example of infrastructure.
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: In highways, in parts of electricity, not the national grid,
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: in big buildings, and tourism, in in agriculture, in industries,
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: big industries, tourism, tourism, the sugar industry, the rum industry,
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: or open to that for foreign investors, including Cubans, lib abroad,
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: not necessarily in the US, but also in the US.
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: I would want to invest in Cuban, and that's new,
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: and that the scope with which we are doing it,
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: the openness and the facilities are new. In other words,
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: it's more active towards Cubans specifically, the not all property
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: in Cuba belonged to the US, A lot of it
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: and the most productive. But so there's a lot of
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: areas in Cuba in which you can invest and nobody
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: could claim that they were a former owner nor go
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: to court. Thirdly, based on Cuba's law, that has no problem.
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: It could have a problem in the United States, but
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: helps burden as a law has proven its false. None
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: none of the demands that have been put in place
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: and there are very few has been successful up to now.
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: The last effort has gone to the Supreme Court because
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: he has failed. It's with excellent it has failed in
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: previous courts. We know the politics in the United States.
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: We understand how politics and policy of the government influence
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: the courts. So we are expecting to see what's happened.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: But the up to now they have they have been
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: they have not been successful. And in addition to that,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: the US government, if it want it can make exceptions
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: right so that whoever wants to invest specifically or in
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: Gero would never go to court.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 12: Is there is there a holistic agreement that could see
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 12: compensation for some of the property that was American, so
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 12: that so that that issue is no longer dogging efforts
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 12: to grow and develop the country.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: Holistic agreements are the approach that the world has and
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: it's the one that we had in the early sixties.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: We had a holistic agreement called lum sum agreements. They're
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: called with the governments. There were six governments of the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: country's property were nationalized in Cuban. All of them had
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: compensation schemes. All of them were compensated, with the exception
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: of the US because the US government simply refused the
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: terms that were proposed by Cuba and refused. Then when
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 4: Cuba said, well, let's sit down, let's find an agreeable
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: solution between and it refused to sit down. Naturally, we
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: learned later that they were planning the Bay of Pigs
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: invasion at the time, so they said, why would we negotiate.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: But the rest were done, and today's studies have been
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: made that if the agreement would have been accepted by
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: the United States, all of them would have been compensated
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: by the mid eighties, all of the Americans, which were
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: the larger But the only solution for this is through
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: Loumso now we're ready to sit down in the United
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: States and discuss these issues. But Cuba also has claims.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: We believe the Cuban people, in the Cuban nation needs, requires,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: or deserves to be compensated for damage done by the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: economic blockade, by the invasions, by terrorism, by assassinations, by
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: actions violent actions against the economy, and so we're ready
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: to sit down, and in fact, during the Obama years
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: we sat down. We believe we can still sit down,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: perhaps not follow the same approach, we can innovate a
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: new approach, but we need to sit down government to.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 12: Government, so lump sum would be back on the table.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 12: In any holistic it would.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: Happen and in which again our claims would be at
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: the same table.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 12: What is what is your sense of what happened with
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 12: the Biden administration? There was a there was a sense
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 12: in Washington that Okay, Trump, he undid everything that Obama did,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 12: but Biden, when he comes back in, he will.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: Faithfully follow Trump. Yeah, in economic terms, not enough. He
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: had more diplomatic opening, but in economic terms and economic
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: punishment to Cuba faithfully followed Trump.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 11: Is there any analysis of why that is?
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: We've had We think that there are people that the
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: democratic government at the time you listen to some of
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: Cuban origin ill advice Biden tell them, look, don't make
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: it anymore. There's no need. This country is going to collapse.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: And Biden is already gone and Cuba's still here.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 11: So I've only been here a couple of days at
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 11: this point.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 12: But even yesterday, you know, after the power was restored,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 12: and yesterday again blackout overmote much of Havana with you know,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 12: no oil has gotten in since what December. So my
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 12: thought was that this is just no way to live
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 12: like the this is, this feels unsustainable from from your
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 12: sense how you know, you can be creative, you can
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 12: be innovative, but how long can a situation like this
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 12: go on? Before and then I don't know before what
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 12: because people still wake up every day and go about,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 12: you know, and live. How do you think through what
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 12: we we near future looks like?
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: First, we believe that some oil should come in the
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 4: US has a lot of power, But is it forever
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: sustainable for the US to be able to course every
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 4: country in the world to not export fuel to Cuba.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: Will that be absolutely acceptable for the US government? Will
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: no clear mind in the US government think we're committing
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: huge cruelty against a whole nation. So we expect and
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: we could be naive about it, but we have to
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: hope that at some point someone's going to say, you
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: do not do this to people. You do not this
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: to a whole society, trying to kill them by suffocating
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: them as a whole. So we still hope that some
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: oil would come in from some other countries or even
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: from the US if they're ready to do it. And meantime,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: we continue to prepare. As I said, to be less
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: dependent on fuel than we've been. But it should not
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: be confused. We have a very clear mind of the
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: challenge in front of us. We have a very clear
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: mind that time is not on our site, and that
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: the pressure is building on our people and the suffering
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: is going.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 12: And so the American government often pushes for, you know,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 12: economic reforms, political reforms, and so on, So do a
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 12: lot of Cuban people.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 11: What I've heard from some.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 12: Some is that that the embargo, the blockade, the terrorism designation,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 12: the pressure has severely limited Cuba's kind of range of motion.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 12: That is very difficult to innovate an experiment in a
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 12: situation where you're under so much pressure.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 11: Is that true?
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 12: And do you suspect that people who want to see
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 12: various reforms would be strengthened inside the Cuban government if
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 12: the embargo were lifted, if the pressure were lifted, and
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 12: if Cuba could trade with other countries in a normal
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 12: fashion like anybody else.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: But the question is that if we feel that, who
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: would be strengthened.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 12: People inside the government who want to reform either the
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 12: economy or the political system, who want to try something different,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 12: who want to allow for you know, different economic experiments
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 12: in certain areas, would they would that be more likely
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 12: or less likely in a world where the embargo is lifted, the.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: Steps that we take are collectively analyzed, we reach a
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: consensus to carry them out. So normally it's not this
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: faction thinking of this faction, and.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 11: The faction doesn't want to do anything. You can always
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 11: say now is not the time.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: Not because we've thought about some of the things. Some
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: things we want we need to accelerate, and some that
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: we have been thinking of because of the level ofssure
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: of pressure, we have to put a stop on them
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: for them on pause, because under these conditions we cannot
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: we simply do not have them. Some require money, to
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: give you an example. Some require a level of energy
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: that we don't have. So we put some important reforms.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 11: I would say on pause, you give an example or two.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: I prefer not to go into that because I don't
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: want to give expectations but have to be put on
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: pause against our will. But because of the conditions in
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: which we are. But we are sure and we've been
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: aware of that from years. Not our economy is to
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: transform because the demography, the demography of the country has changed,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: the world has changed, the composition of the Cuban workforce
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: has changed, the opportunities that we have to carry out
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: some issues. Some things that we did in the past
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: are not there anymore, so we need to transform the
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: economy and also things that we took for a great
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: that we've studied in books. We're very good in books,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: but materially no country was successful doing that. So life
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: has shown that are things that we need to do.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: And with the problem that there's no blueprint any in
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: any country. There's no example that we can follow exactly
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: because no other country has been given the same set
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: of cards that we have been giving, including fundamentally us hostility.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: But our aim is to take steps as fast as
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: we can, but with caution because mistakes can cost, and
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: we've made some during some transformations that we're taking out
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: of time without the right condition. They have costs that
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: have derailed us and has takenus of time to get
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: back on path.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 11: Thank you, I appreciate your time.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: This might go down as the longest show ever in
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: BP history, but sometimes that's what the news calls for. Obviously,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: we'll all be on deck Friday show, and we're watching
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: for any potential ground invasion over the weekend, so make
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: sure that you stay tuned. Thank you everybody's watches, and
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: we'll see you all later