Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | I Hate Everything | MLB & WNBA | 6/1/26
Transcript
- 0:16Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
- 0:19Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee on the felt man, you look
- 0:23Speaker 1: like a mess.
- 0:25Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
- 0:29Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
- 0:32Speaker 3: this man.
- 0:33Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
- 0:37Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show.
- 0:41Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
- 0:51Speaker 1: hold on nothing.
- 0:54Speaker 4: Nice, now, hold on, hold on me, but it don't.
- 1:11Speaker 5: Don't get the crown.
- 1:14Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
- 1:17Speaker 5: And stay with me.
- 1:18Speaker 6: Now, what's up, everybody?
- 1:29Speaker 3: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports for whatever
- 1:33Speaker 3: day it is, Monday, June first, I told you the
- 1:37Speaker 3: head the hot streak was gonna come to an end.
- 1:41Speaker 3: I don't know what else to say about that first
- 1:44Speaker 3: five under Minnesota. Pittsburgh pretty much dead immediately, Well not really,
- 1:50Speaker 3: it was. I think it was too nothing. Then it
- 1:52Speaker 3: was four nothing. Then it was like you just need
- 1:54Speaker 3: to hold on to the push there. No, let's just
- 1:57Speaker 3: go ahead and give up like five more runs in
- 1:59Speaker 3: the fifth. That's just great. Pittsburgh obviously was the team
- 2:04Speaker 3: scoring all those runs. Zebby owes me some money and
- 2:09Speaker 3: then Kansas City. That was the one that was like
- 2:12Speaker 3: basically over in the first inning, and by which I
- 2:16Speaker 3: mean the play was over Michael walk of four runs
- 2:20Speaker 3: allowed in the first inning, and then I think he
- 2:21Speaker 3: was fairly good after that. But you can't do anything
- 2:25Speaker 3: about that. You have a horrible first inning that ends
- 2:27Speaker 3: the bet basically already, there's nothing you could do about it.
- 2:31Speaker 3: Move on to today. I got no plays today and
- 2:35Speaker 3: I'm not even on the right page here. Yeah, I
- 2:38Speaker 3: don't like this board. I'm skipping it. We have like
- 2:41Speaker 3: nine baseball games, a couple of WNBA and that's it.
- 2:44Speaker 3: First game up, it's all evening. New series starting Detroit
- 2:48Speaker 3: at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is staying at home. They
- 2:52Speaker 3: just beat Anaheim in their most recent series. Detroit lost
- 2:56Speaker 3: another series. They just got swept by the White Sox.
- 3:00Speaker 3: Almost won yesterday. They almost won two of those games.
- 3:03Speaker 3: Now they're coming into to Tampa here. I don't, I
- 3:08Speaker 3: don't even know what I think about this game, man,
- 3:10Speaker 3: I really don't. I mean, I think the starting pitching
- 3:13Speaker 3: matchup might actually be an advantage to Detroit, but you
- 3:18Speaker 3: have to gauge Detroit's motivation here too. Detroit used three
- 3:21Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday, Tampa Bay also used three. Neither of
- 3:26Speaker 3: these bullpens is that good. Tampa Bay is ranked eighteenth
- 3:29Speaker 3: the ranger that is by whit but their e ray
- 3:31Speaker 3: is pretty ugly, like one of the worst. Detroit's bullpen
- 3:35Speaker 3: e ray is actually better even though they ranked twenty second.
- 3:39Speaker 3: I think they might have the slightly better bullpen. Detroit
- 3:43Speaker 3: offense obviously is obviously goes to Tampa Bay their eighth
- 3:48Speaker 3: Detroit is twenty seventh. Detroit's been their hitting has been
- 3:53Speaker 3: non existent recently. Detroit looks like they are going with
- 3:56Speaker 3: Ty Madden. This looks like a sort of bullpen ish
- 4:00Speaker 3: game for both teams. What I will say is be
- 4:04Speaker 3: aware that when Madden has pitched so far, Detroit has
- 4:07Speaker 3: used an opener in front of him every time so far,
- 4:10Speaker 3: which I think has been three times. So if you're
- 4:13Speaker 3: gonna play this game, I would make it action because
- 4:16Speaker 3: they think you know Madden is going to pitch, But
- 4:19Speaker 3: he may not be the first one out for Detroit
- 4:22Speaker 3: because they put an opener in front of him the
- 4:24Speaker 3: other times. He's also coming out the injured list, but
- 4:28Speaker 3: it looks like he is going to pitch. He's been
- 4:30Speaker 3: pretty good two point three eighty R point seventy nine
- 4:35Speaker 3: whip not as good on the road four point five
- 4:38Speaker 3: Roady Ram. He's actually basically made only starters' workload appearances,
- 4:45Speaker 3: even though, like I said, there was an opener in
- 4:47Speaker 3: front of him in both of those appearances, and then
- 4:49Speaker 3: he got hurt like right away in his last outing.
- 4:53Speaker 3: But he's been good both times he's pitched, you know,
- 4:56Speaker 3: a full amount of innings. He's got twelve strikeouts, two walks,
- 5:01Speaker 3: seven hits allowed, and eleven and a third innings. That's
- 5:03Speaker 3: all pretty good if you look at what he's done
- 5:06Speaker 3: in the past. I mean, his only other year that
- 5:09Speaker 3: he has under his belt is twenty twenty four, mostly
- 5:11Speaker 3: in relief, and his numbers were not that good, but
- 5:14Speaker 3: it was a small sample size, so there's not much
- 5:17Speaker 3: you can really take away from that. I don't think
- 5:18Speaker 3: he's that bad, though. He does have a little bit
- 5:21Speaker 3: of experience against Tampa Bay. I think it's just Mullins's
- 5:25Speaker 3: face before. Yeah, he's two for three with a home
- 5:29Speaker 3: run Offen though, But overall, I think Madden may actually
- 5:33Speaker 3: do well here. They have to get through whoever they're
- 5:36Speaker 3: opener is first. Tampa Bay is going with Griffin Jacks,
- 5:40Speaker 3: who basically is an opener, like he'll go out there.
- 5:43Speaker 3: They've been using him like three innings to start the game. Basically,
- 5:46Speaker 3: he's got a three point six ERA one point four whip.
- 5:50Speaker 3: That whip is not good, obviously, but he has been
- 5:52Speaker 3: pretty good at home two point one to three homey RA.
- 5:56Speaker 3: He actually did go five innings a couple of times,
- 5:58Speaker 3: but last time out he only went two winnings. So
- 6:01Speaker 3: it seems like it's kind of a weird mix, Like
- 6:04Speaker 3: it's kind of unpredictable how long they're gonna let him
- 6:07Speaker 3: go in a game. I don't know if it depends
- 6:09Speaker 3: on the matchup or what he looks like or whatever.
- 6:13Speaker 3: He got in a little bit of a jam in
- 6:14Speaker 3: that last game, so maybe that's why they took him out,
- 6:16Speaker 3: but the fielding didn't help him. I don't like what
- 6:20Speaker 3: I see out of him overall them. He has a
- 6:22Speaker 3: lot fewer than one hit per inning. That's good, but
- 6:24Speaker 3: he's he's got too many walks, like one every two winnings.
- 6:28Speaker 3: His strike got rad is okay, ground ball rate is
- 6:31Speaker 3: pretty good, but I don't know. I don't really trust Jacks,
- 6:35Speaker 3: even though in his extended appearances, he has a lot
- 6:38Speaker 3: more than two earned runs and in any of them,
- 6:40Speaker 3: and he is facing a Detroit lineup that hasn't done
- 6:43Speaker 3: anything recently, but they do have good numbers off of
- 6:46Speaker 3: him in thirty four at bats three point fifty three average,
- 6:49Speaker 3: one thy sixty five ohps. So I yeah, Jackson may
- 6:54Speaker 3: not do well here. There are just a lot of
- 6:56Speaker 3: question marks here. Man, I think I lean to Detroit,
- 6:59Speaker 3: which I know sounds ridiculous, but that's I think what
- 7:03Speaker 3: I would do here is I would have a slight
- 7:05Speaker 3: lean towards Detroit. The money is all coming in on Tampa,
- 7:08Speaker 3: but they're also like minus one seventy in the minus
- 7:12Speaker 3: one seventies. Do you really think Tampa should be favored
- 7:15Speaker 3: by that much with like a converted reliever who might
- 7:19Speaker 3: not even go a full amount of innings here starting
- 7:21Speaker 3: the game for them. I don't really think so, even
- 7:24Speaker 3: though I know Detroit's going with a bullpend ish game.
- 7:28Speaker 3: But I think Madden is the more trustworthy of these
- 7:31Speaker 3: two guys here. I don't know Man's It's a difficult
- 7:35Speaker 3: game to figure out, though fifty six percent of tickets
- 7:38Speaker 3: ninety one percent of the cash on Tampa Bay wayser
- 7:42Speaker 3: talks odds logic thing here is still not giving the
- 7:45Speaker 3: total percentages, which is a problem, but whatever, the total
- 7:49Speaker 3: in this game is seven and a half, which seems
- 7:52Speaker 3: kind of low given that this is kind of a
- 7:55Speaker 3: bullpend game and at least one offense has been able
- 7:58Speaker 3: to hit Tampa Bay and neither bullpen is really that good.
- 8:02Speaker 3: I could see arguments for an over here too, But yeah,
- 8:05Speaker 3: I mean, as I said, I'm skipping everything here. Gerald,
- 8:11Speaker 3: We're not riding the ship here because I have no
- 8:14Speaker 3: plays today. I'm not even gonna I'm not doing anything
- 8:17Speaker 3: with this bullshit. I'm not gonna bother Miami at Washington.
- 8:22Speaker 3: Washington is staying at home. They did just beat San
- 8:25Speaker 3: Diego to win that series yesterday, and Miami just got
- 8:28Speaker 3: swept by the Mets. They're coming in from New York,
- 8:32Speaker 3: not really that bad of a travel spot, but Miami's
- 8:35Speaker 3: lost five games in a row. Maybe Miami will be
- 8:37Speaker 3: a little bit more motivated here. But Miami used a
- 8:41Speaker 3: lot of their bullpen yesterday. It was I think they
- 8:43Speaker 3: basically went with a bullpen game yesterday. That doesn't look
- 8:47Speaker 3: good to me. So their bullpend is even though it's
- 8:50Speaker 3: the better of these two bullpens, significantly, they're very unrested.
- 8:55Speaker 3: Washington only US two relief pitchers yesterday themselves. Washington does
- 9:00Speaker 3: the worst bullpen though they're twenty fourth. Miami is sixth,
- 9:04Speaker 3: but with that rest disadvantage for Miami, that kind of
- 9:07Speaker 3: evens out the bullpens. Washington is fourth in offense, Miami
- 9:12Speaker 3: is where are they twenty second? Miami's really fallen down offensively.
- 9:18Speaker 3: Sandy al Contra is pitching for Miami. He's been mediocre
- 9:24Speaker 3: four point six six ERA, one point three to three WHIP.
- 9:27Speaker 3: He has not been able to bounce back from his
- 9:30Speaker 3: injury issues. And he also hasn't been good on the road,
- 9:33Speaker 3: and we know Washington plays a lot of high scoring
- 9:35Speaker 3: home games. He's got a six point seven roadie ray
- 9:40Speaker 3: that is not good. He's gotten kind of lit up
- 9:43Speaker 3: in his last couple outings. One was against Atlanta that's
- 9:46Speaker 3: a good offense. Toronto isn't, though, and that was even
- 9:49Speaker 3: worse against Toronto, and now he's facing a Washington team
- 9:54Speaker 3: that can hit. He actually did just face Washington May
- 9:57Speaker 3: tenth and did well in that out. He went six innings,
- 10:00Speaker 3: allowed two earned runs, only had three strikeouts, though, and
- 10:04Speaker 3: That's kind of the other issue with al Condras. His
- 10:06Speaker 3: strikeout rate is down from where it once was in
- 10:09Speaker 3: his career, and he's just way too hit u ball.
- 10:12Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is low, which is one thing. His
- 10:16Speaker 3: walk rate isn't really that bad, but his hit rate
- 10:18Speaker 3: is also too high, So a couple of issues there.
- 10:22Speaker 3: He's just you know, he's not throwing his fastball by
- 10:26Speaker 3: guys anymore. You know, That's what happens, you know, when
- 10:29Speaker 3: you have all these injuries and you start getting older.
- 10:32Speaker 3: Although I know he's still only thirty, but still, I mean,
- 10:35Speaker 3: I don't think he's ever going to really be what
- 10:37Speaker 3: he once was. Ever Again, his numbers against Washington in
- 10:40Speaker 3: his career are good, although some of this was probably
- 10:43Speaker 3: back when he was a better pitcher. Eighty four at
- 10:46Speaker 3: bats two, twenty six batting average, five sixty two ohps,
- 10:50Speaker 3: seven to three strikeout walk Raceiam. That's the thing with
- 10:53Speaker 3: Alcondre is you have to look at those numbers and
- 10:55Speaker 3: then weigh them against what he looks like recently. Although again,
- 10:58Speaker 3: he did pitch well against this WAK lineup not long ago.
- 11:02Speaker 3: Kay Cavali is pitching for Washington, He's actually pitching really well.
- 11:07Speaker 3: This month, he's got his ERA down to three point
- 11:10Speaker 3: six to two. His whip is still not good one
- 11:13Speaker 3: point four to one. He's been better at home three
- 11:16Speaker 3: point four to eight ERA. Washington's pitchers mostly are not
- 11:19Speaker 3: better at home, but he is. And this month, like
- 11:22Speaker 3: I said, he's actually been good. He's loved three or
- 11:25Speaker 3: fewer earned runs in every outing. He's gone at least
- 11:27Speaker 3: five to two thirds in the last four outings. But
- 11:31Speaker 3: he based Miami, Baltimore, mets Cleveland over that stretch, not
- 11:35Speaker 3: exactly a gauntlet of offenses. But he also has a
- 11:38Speaker 3: thirty to seven strike a walk ratio here twenty six
- 11:41Speaker 3: hits a lout in twenty nine innings. That's his May numbers,
- 11:45Speaker 3: I said this month, but I mean May because obviously
- 11:48Speaker 3: it's now June. His overall numbers. He's got a high
- 11:51Speaker 3: strikeout rate, his walk rate is too high on the season.
- 11:54Speaker 3: His hit rate is also still too high. But he's
- 11:56Speaker 3: been improving both of those numbers, so I don't think
- 12:00Speaker 3: he's that bad dude. He seems to finally be kind
- 12:04Speaker 3: of coming around and pitching a bit better. Even though
- 12:06Speaker 3: I know he's twenty seven now against Miami, he hasn't
- 12:11Speaker 3: been horrible. He's got forty six at bats against him.
- 12:14Speaker 3: A two eighty three average isn't really that good. Six
- 12:17Speaker 3: seventeen ops is pretty good though. Eight to two strike
- 12:21Speaker 3: out walk ratio. I think there is some money backing
- 12:24Speaker 3: the under in this game, but I think I might
- 12:29Speaker 3: lean Washington here. Uh, the totals eight and a half.
- 12:32Speaker 3: I mean, if you're gonna go under here, I think
- 12:34Speaker 3: you have to do it first five innings. I can
- 12:36Speaker 3: see the argument for it. Olcontra at least still has
- 12:39Speaker 3: good matchup numbers here. It's kind of dangerous to go
- 12:42Speaker 3: under in a game in Washington, though, but Cavali looks
- 12:45Speaker 3: like he's pitching a lot better as well, So the
- 12:47Speaker 3: under first five makes sense to me exclude Miami's unrested
- 12:51Speaker 3: bullpen and the bad Washington bullpen. But I might prefer
- 12:56Speaker 3: a Washington side here because al Contra has all the
- 12:59Speaker 3: name record ignition here. Washington fifty eight percent of tickets,
- 13:03Speaker 3: ninety three percent of the cash on them. You're laying
- 13:05Speaker 3: about minus one forty though, But I think with Miami
- 13:08Speaker 3: having an unrested bultpend, that's gonna kind of hurt their
- 13:10Speaker 3: bullpend a bit. I like the way Cavali has been
- 13:13Speaker 3: pitching recently. He's in way better for him than all
- 13:16Speaker 3: contra Is right now over the recent starts that they've had,
- 13:19Speaker 3: So I might lean that way, but I do worry
- 13:22Speaker 3: about the situation a little bit because Miami might be
- 13:25Speaker 3: in a bounced back spot here after getting kind of
- 13:28Speaker 3: embarrassed by the Mets, and then you got a Washington
- 13:31Speaker 3: coming off kind of a big win over San Diego.
- 13:34Speaker 3: So I'm gonna stay off that game too. But those
- 13:36Speaker 3: are my thoughts. Thomas, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
- 13:39Speaker 3: The good work has not been good anymore recently, although
- 13:44Speaker 3: I know there. You gotta you know, there are always
- 13:46Speaker 3: gonna be downswings, like the run that I was on
- 13:48Speaker 3: was unsustainable. But I'm also skipping the board today. If
- 13:53Speaker 3: I was gonna play any game today, I was thinking
- 13:55Speaker 3: about this game, Kansas City at Cincinnati. Although the situation
- 13:59Speaker 3: might be okay for Kansas City, I mean, you know,
- 14:01Speaker 3: they're gonna be motivated. They've lost six games in a row,
- 14:04Speaker 3: they just got swept by Texas. You gotta think Kansas
- 14:08Speaker 3: City is going to try to get a win here.
- 14:10Speaker 3: But the pitching matchup is a huge advantage to Cincinnati. Here,
- 14:14Speaker 3: Cincinnati could be in a letdown spot. That's why I
- 14:17Speaker 3: kind of worry about this, because they did just end
- 14:18Speaker 3: their series with Atlanta with a win yesterday, possible let down.
- 14:23Speaker 3: But also they did end a three game losing streak,
- 14:26Speaker 3: so that possibly will give them some momentum. So I
- 14:30Speaker 3: could see positive and negative for Cincinnati here. Cincinnati used
- 14:33Speaker 3: three relief pitchers. Neither of these bullpens have been good.
- 14:37Speaker 3: Kansas City used three as well. Kansas City is dead
- 14:41Speaker 3: last in bullpen right now thirtieth. Houston's era is actually
- 14:45Speaker 3: still worse, but this is a bad Kansas City bullpen. Dude.
- 14:50Speaker 3: Cincinnati has ranked twenty eighth. They're not a good bullpen either.
- 14:54Speaker 3: Hitting wise. Kansas City's at twenty six they have not
- 14:57Speaker 3: been hitting well either. Cincinnati's up to thirteenth, so Cincinnati
- 15:01Speaker 3: has been hitting pretty well recently. So Cincinnati looks like
- 15:04Speaker 3: they have the better bullpen. Their bullpen is not better
- 15:09Speaker 3: than many, but probably better than Kansas City's and the
- 15:12Speaker 3: better hitting, and they clearly have the better starter here.
- 15:15Speaker 3: Kansas City is not even going with a starting pitcher.
- 15:17Speaker 3: This was if you go five games ago, Kansas City
- 15:20Speaker 3: used Bailey Falter in that game, and he's not even
- 15:23Speaker 3: on the team anymore. So this is a bullpen game
- 15:26Speaker 3: for Kansas City.
- 15:27Speaker 5: Here.
- 15:27Speaker 3: It looks like they got Lwinder Avilla listed as their
- 15:32Speaker 3: starter here. He's a relief pitcher. I don't think he's
- 15:36Speaker 3: gonna pitch that many innings, and his numbers are bad
- 15:38Speaker 3: five point zero six e Ram, one point eight three Whip.
- 15:41Speaker 3: He's been good on the road though, one point nine
- 15:44Speaker 3: to three road Ram. They're ramping him up a little bit.
- 15:47Speaker 3: He actually did go three innings in his last outing,
- 15:49Speaker 3: and he wasn't good. It was against the Yankees. I
- 15:52Speaker 3: think that might have still been in relief in that game.
- 15:55Speaker 3: The Yankees beat him up. But I mean, I know
- 15:57Speaker 3: it is the Yankees. They hit well, but still I
- 16:00Speaker 3: don't really trust whatever the Royals are doing here with
- 16:03Speaker 3: a Villa and then you're gonna get a lot of
- 16:04Speaker 3: the Royals bullpen last ranked bullpen in this game. That
- 16:09Speaker 3: does not look good to me at all. Against Cincinnati.
- 16:14Speaker 3: They only have two guys who have seen him, Blade
- 16:16Speaker 3: and Suarez. They're combined one for two with a strikeout.
- 16:20Speaker 3: The one hit is a Bleday double. But yeah, I
- 16:24Speaker 3: don't trust Kansas City's pitching set up at all. Meanwhile,
- 16:27Speaker 3: Cincinnati is going with Chase Burns, who I think he's
- 16:31Speaker 3: still kind of under the radar, but the oddsmakers have
- 16:34Speaker 3: kind of caught up to him because they are lining
- 16:36Speaker 3: Cincinnati as a massive favorite in this game. Chase Burns
- 16:41Speaker 3: is good, man. I mean, he's been one of the
- 16:43Speaker 3: better pitchers in baseball this season, and nobody's talking about
- 16:46Speaker 3: him as far as I could tell. Everybody's talking about
- 16:49Speaker 3: Skeens Mizierowski, but Burns is kind of right there. He's
- 16:52Speaker 3: got a one point nine to six ERA point nine
- 16:55Speaker 3: to six whip. He's been only slightly worse at home
- 16:58Speaker 3: in this hitter friendly bark two point one home ram.
- 17:03Speaker 3: Cincinnati's won his last four starts. They've won six of
- 17:06Speaker 3: his last seven. He's gotten a win in all of
- 17:09Speaker 3: those games. Actually, Uh, the one game that wasn't a win,
- 17:13Speaker 3: his team literally scored zero against Pittsbvers, So that was
- 17:17Speaker 3: not his fault. He didn't He did not even allow
- 17:19Speaker 3: any runs. He's allowed two or fewer runs in all
- 17:22Speaker 3: but one outing this entire season. Yeah, he's on fire,
- 17:26Speaker 3: we get it. He pitches well. Kansas City, I am
- 17:30Speaker 3: pretty sure has never faced him. Yeah, so he has
- 17:32Speaker 3: an extra advantage here. When you get these young talented
- 17:35Speaker 3: pitchers and they're going up against a lineup that hasn't
- 17:37Speaker 3: even seen them before. That lineup has to figure him
- 17:40Speaker 3: out the first couple of times through. So that's an
- 17:42Speaker 3: extra advantage to him. So it seems kind of obvious,
- 17:46Speaker 3: But I would go with the Reds here. I think
- 17:48Speaker 3: this is if I was gonna play any game today.
- 17:50Speaker 3: I was trying to find a way to play the
- 17:52Speaker 3: Reds here. They got eighty seven percent of tickets, ninety
- 17:55Speaker 3: two percent of the cash on them. They're around minus
- 17:58Speaker 3: two hundred here. I was thinking about first five here,
- 18:02Speaker 3: because I really I don't like either Bullpend here man,
- 18:05Speaker 3: But I was like, well, what is the price on this?
- 18:07Speaker 3: If you want to go first five, Well, you can
- 18:11Speaker 3: lay a half run with Cincinnati, but it's like minus
- 18:13Speaker 3: one forty on that, So it's a pretty expensive price
- 18:18Speaker 3: to go with Cincinnati even in the first five. You know,
- 18:22Speaker 3: it might make more sense to just go full game
- 18:25Speaker 3: Cincinnati here, because you know Kansas City's going with like
- 18:27Speaker 3: like a bullpend game here. Burns will probably get you
- 18:30Speaker 3: a bit deeper into the game. I'm tempted to add this.
- 18:35Speaker 3: This is my one play? Should I add a play?
- 18:37Speaker 3: I was gonna skip the board completely. What is I'm
- 18:40Speaker 3: looking at the line for the full game here on
- 18:42Speaker 3: the Reds because you'd like you'd have to go with
- 18:44Speaker 3: a run line here, or you could go with the
- 18:47Speaker 3: Reds team total. Let me see here the Reds. But
- 18:53Speaker 3: if you go with their team total, you're taking one
- 18:55Speaker 3: of your biggest advantages out of the play though with Burns.
- 18:59Speaker 3: Let me see minus one and a half. I see
- 19:04Speaker 3: it less than minus one ten out there in a
- 19:06Speaker 3: couple of books, including FD. You know what, Fuck it,
- 19:13Speaker 3: let's go ahead, Let's have a play, dude. I don't
- 19:15Speaker 3: want to force anything, but whatever, let me get this
- 19:20Speaker 3: in here. Hang on, this will be my one play.
- 19:24Speaker 3: I don't know. I wasn't really thinking full game, but
- 19:26Speaker 3: Kansas City's bullpen it's probably even worse than Cincinnaties. So
- 19:33Speaker 3: all right, there you go. That's oh sorry, this is
- 19:36Speaker 3: the best bets segment. We'll go with the Cincinnati Reds
- 19:44Speaker 3: run line. I know I don't. I don't usually like
- 19:47Speaker 3: the run lines. I know the professional betters will tell
- 19:50Speaker 3: you don't, don't do it because it's a don't do
- 19:52Speaker 3: it with a home team, especially because they don't get
- 19:55Speaker 3: the at bats in the ninth inning. But whatever, I've
- 19:58Speaker 3: done it a couple of times this year. I think
- 20:00Speaker 3: more of them have won than lost this year. And
- 20:03Speaker 3: we've had one of those on the Reds before. So
- 20:06Speaker 3: I just keep backing. Chase Burns, man, I gotta do it,
- 20:09Speaker 3: so that'll be my play. We have the White Sox
- 20:12Speaker 3: at Minnesota. This is kind of an interesting game. Minnesota's
- 20:16Speaker 3: are turning on from a road trip, and they're returning
- 20:18Speaker 3: on from the longest road trip out of anybody. Today.
- 20:21Speaker 3: They went to Boston, they went to Chicago to play
- 20:24Speaker 3: the White Sox, and by the way, Minnesota actually lost
- 20:28Speaker 3: three out of four there, so this is kind of
- 20:30Speaker 3: a revenge spot from Minnesota after losing at the White
- 20:34Speaker 3: Sox three out of four. Then Minnesota got swept by Pittsburgh,
- 20:38Speaker 3: so they've lost five games in a row. But you know,
- 20:40Speaker 3: I don't like teams are turning on from road trips though.
- 20:43Speaker 3: That's the thing. Usually a road trip return is a
- 20:45Speaker 3: negative spot. You gotta get back to home life. It
- 20:48Speaker 3: could be a distraction. But do you think they're gonna
- 20:51Speaker 3: overlook this hot White Sox team that's above them in
- 20:53Speaker 3: the standings in their division, and a team that just
- 20:56Speaker 3: kind of embarrassed them a bit in that last series
- 20:59Speaker 3: they played. I think that will keep Minnesota somewhat focused here.
- 21:03Speaker 3: I also don't want to fade Minnesota starting pitcher here either.
- 21:08Speaker 3: Looking at the bullpens here, let me see here, let
- 21:12Speaker 3: me just make sure Cincinnati's but yes, Cincinnat whatever. We
- 21:15Speaker 3: went with Cincinnati's bullpen in that game. Yeah whatever. In
- 21:19Speaker 3: this game, the White Sox these four relief pitchers. Yesterday
- 21:23Speaker 3: Minnesota only used one. But Minnesota's bullpen is bad. They
- 21:27Speaker 3: are at twenty seventh, White Sox are twentieth, So the
- 21:30Speaker 3: White Sox have the better bullpen, but it's a little
- 21:32Speaker 3: bit less rested. So I would fade both bullpens here
- 21:36Speaker 3: in whatever I would want to do. White Sox are
- 21:39Speaker 3: sixth in offense in Minnesota sixteenth White Sox. This is
- 21:44Speaker 3: an interesting matchup here because David Sandlin is going for
- 21:47Speaker 3: the White Sox. He has one start in his major
- 21:50Speaker 3: league career, so varn obviously it was good because he
- 21:52Speaker 3: has a one point five ERA, but a point one
- 21:56Speaker 3: seven whip. Yes, that is a not a typo. If
- 22:00Speaker 3: you see what he did in that game. It was
- 22:02Speaker 3: against Minnesota, which I'm gonna talk about in a minute,
- 22:05Speaker 3: But he gave up a home run to start the
- 22:07Speaker 3: game and then heat no hit Minnesota. He did not
- 22:10Speaker 3: allow a base runner after that, so he gave up
- 22:13Speaker 3: a home run and then he pitched a perfect game
- 22:16Speaker 3: through the remainder of those six ings that he pitched,
- 22:19Speaker 3: So you know he did well. That was at home
- 22:22Speaker 3: against Minnesota. He won hit them obviously through six innings,
- 22:26Speaker 3: had four strikeouts, no walks. Also only through sixty one pitches.
- 22:30Speaker 3: He was really efficient. Now, when I handicapped him, I
- 22:33Speaker 3: was worried because Sandland does not have a deep pitching
- 22:36Speaker 3: arsenal like He's not considered to be this upper rationalon
- 22:40Speaker 3: prospect or like his His arsenal looks more like a
- 22:44Speaker 3: relief pitcher's arsenal because he only throws like three pitches,
- 22:48Speaker 3: like I think it's basically like fastball slider. I forget
- 22:52Speaker 3: what the other pitches that he throws. It might be
- 22:54Speaker 3: another variation of a fastball. But still, he did well
- 22:59Speaker 3: in that outing, so he can obviously do well against Minnesota.
- 23:02Speaker 3: He's got his stats against Minnesota now, all from that
- 23:05Speaker 3: one outing. Nineteen at bats, one hit, uh fifty three average,
- 23:10Speaker 3: two sixty three oh ps, we get it, four strikeouts,
- 23:13Speaker 3: no walks. But the problem I have with that is,
- 23:15Speaker 3: you know, I talk about these young pitchers having an
- 23:17Speaker 3: unfamiliarity edge. That's what he had. That was back on
- 23:20Speaker 3: May twenty seventh. Well, now he doesn't have that anymore
- 23:23Speaker 3: because Minnesota saw him. So now that Minnesota has seen
- 23:26Speaker 3: him once, they figured you know, if they didn't figure
- 23:29Speaker 3: him out yet, like he might pitch well again here.
- 23:31Speaker 3: I would actually probably lean more towards him pitching well
- 23:34Speaker 3: again here. But he's not gonna pitch that well again,
- 23:37Speaker 3: and I think he could be in maybe even a
- 23:38Speaker 3: personal letdown spot after that, because that was such a
- 23:41Speaker 3: good outing from him. He could have a little bit
- 23:43Speaker 3: of a let down here. And now Minnesota has seen him,
- 23:46Speaker 3: so they're literally the only team that he does not
- 23:49Speaker 3: have an unfamiliarity edge against anymore. So I worry a
- 23:53Speaker 3: little bit about him coming into this game. I don't
- 23:55Speaker 3: worry as much about Joe Ryan, who was pitching for Minnesota,
- 23:58Speaker 3: because we know who he is. He's well established two
- 24:01Speaker 3: point nine to four e RA point nine three whip,
- 24:04Speaker 3: he's been good at home as well two point one
- 24:07Speaker 3: five homy Ray. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs
- 24:10Speaker 3: in every start this month. His team has won four
- 24:13Speaker 3: out of the five of them, even though he's only
- 24:15Speaker 3: picked up one win over that span. He's pitched really
- 24:18Speaker 3: well this month thirty one to five strikeout walk ratio,
- 24:21Speaker 3: fifteen hits allout in twenty six innings, by which I
- 24:25Speaker 3: mean last month. I know, I keep saying this month
- 24:27Speaker 3: about whatever, it's a habit. Over the course of the season.
- 24:30Speaker 3: He has a really low hit rate, high strikeout rate,
- 24:33Speaker 3: low walk rate too. His numbers are all good, we
- 24:36Speaker 3: get it. Joe Ryan's an ace, but he does not
- 24:40Speaker 3: actually do that well historically against the White Sox. They
- 24:43Speaker 3: have fifty at bats against him three hundred average, eight
- 24:46Speaker 3: sixty seven ops, nine strikeouts, two walks. That concerns me
- 24:50Speaker 3: a little bit. He doesn't do that well against them,
- 24:52Speaker 3: of though, a lot of the damages from Ben and
- 24:55Speaker 3: t Endy, who has almost half of the at bats.
- 24:57Speaker 3: So if he's able to pitch around him, he could
- 25:00Speaker 3: definitely pitch well here. And in fact, he did pitch
- 25:03Speaker 3: in that last series against the White Sox in a
- 25:05Speaker 3: different game. It wasn't the Sandland game. But Ryan did
- 25:09Speaker 3: well in that outing. He went seven to two thirds,
- 25:11Speaker 3: allowed two earned runs on five hits, nine strikeouts, no walk,
- 25:15Speaker 3: So obviously he is capable of pitching well against this
- 25:18Speaker 3: White Sox line, even though they have hit well this year.
- 25:22Speaker 3: So I'm still kind of leaning even though there were
- 25:25Speaker 3: a lot of question marks with both pitchers, I'm still
- 25:27Speaker 3: kind of leaning towards both pitchers pitching well here. Now
- 25:31Speaker 3: the White Sox are hot, so it's getting to the
- 25:34Speaker 3: point where the public is on the White Sox seventy
- 25:37Speaker 3: nine percent of the tickets, fifty two percent of the
- 25:39Speaker 3: cash on them, so the money is indicating on Minnesota. Now,
- 25:43Speaker 3: if I was gonna play Minnesota here, I probably would
- 25:45Speaker 3: not want to deal with their bullpen. I would probably
- 25:48Speaker 3: go first five innings in some capacity here, But then
- 25:52Speaker 3: the worry is that you might get like Sandland dueling
- 25:54Speaker 3: Joe Ryan here, So I don't really want to do that,
- 25:57Speaker 3: even though generally, you know, I kind of agree with
- 26:00Speaker 3: what the market is saying here. But I also don't
- 26:02Speaker 3: want to play on Minnesota because they were turning over
- 26:04Speaker 3: from a road trip. They're around minus one sixty or so.
- 26:07Speaker 3: Though obviously there's a reason why Minnesota is favored by
- 26:11Speaker 3: that much against a team that has a way better
- 26:14Speaker 3: record than them, So the public is like, oh my god,
- 26:17Speaker 3: I'm getting the hot Chicago White Sox with the better
- 26:20Speaker 3: records than underdog. It looks way too easy to do that,
- 26:24Speaker 3: but you could make the argument that the bookmakers, you know,
- 26:29Speaker 3: they just haven't caught up to Sandland yet because he
- 26:31Speaker 3: only has one start, so we still don't really know
- 26:33Speaker 3: if he's any good or not. So maybe he is
- 26:35Speaker 3: good and he's getting undervalued here, so that's possible too.
- 26:39Speaker 3: The totals at eight, I think if I was gonna
- 26:41Speaker 3: play this game at all, I think I would probably
- 26:44Speaker 3: just take the shot with the first five under, although
- 26:47Speaker 3: I know that has not worked out with Minnesota recently,
- 26:49Speaker 3: but they're not playing in Pittsburgh anymore. Here. They're back
- 26:52Speaker 3: at home, and the road trip return a lot of
- 26:55Speaker 3: times will cause distracted hitting too, So that's probably how
- 27:01Speaker 3: I would approach that game if I was gonna do
- 27:03Speaker 3: anything with it. First five innings under, I want nothing
- 27:06Speaker 3: to do with those bullpens. Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
- 27:10Speaker 3: for hanging out. Next game is San Francisco Milwaukee, which
- 27:14Speaker 3: is a TV game on Fox Sports One. Milwaukee is
- 27:19Speaker 3: returning on from the road. But it was only a
- 27:21Speaker 3: single series road trip to Houston, and they're pretty hot
- 27:25Speaker 3: right now. They won that series. They won five of
- 27:27Speaker 3: the last six games, including winning yesterday in a shutout.
- 27:32Speaker 3: But you know, it's a road trip return A lot
- 27:34Speaker 3: of times, I don't want to play on teams returning
- 27:37Speaker 3: off from road trips, obviously, but a short road trip,
- 27:40Speaker 3: so it's less bad for Milwaukee. They were only gone
- 27:42Speaker 3: for one series, so I'm a little bit less concerned
- 27:45Speaker 3: about that. But still, you got to get back to
- 27:47Speaker 3: home life. You got stuff to do. It's possible they
- 27:49Speaker 3: overlook San Francisco. Although San Francisco put up nineteen runs yesterday,
- 27:55Speaker 3: they finally ended their losing streak. They'd lost five games
- 27:59Speaker 3: in a row. Beat Colorado yesterday. Of course, it's course field, man,
- 28:04Speaker 3: so like every team can hit in course field. Do
- 28:06Speaker 3: I think all of a sudden San Francisco's offense is good, No,
- 28:09Speaker 3: I don't. That was kind of the course field effect.
- 28:13Speaker 3: Now they're out of there and they're coming into Milwaukee
- 28:15Speaker 3: coming out of elevation. But because they ended a losing streak,
- 28:18Speaker 3: I think the momentum is there for San Francisco. So
- 28:21Speaker 3: I think San Francisco does actually have a situational advantage here,
- 28:27Speaker 3: just so that they have momentum right now. Milwaukee is
- 28:30Speaker 3: returning over from the road. Milwaukee has the better bullpen,
- 28:33Speaker 3: though their bullpen is good. They did use their closer
- 28:36Speaker 3: yesterday though McGill. They used two relief pitchers. San Francisco
- 28:39Speaker 3: has a mediocre bullpen, but they used four guys out
- 28:43Speaker 3: of it yesterday, so Milwaukee has a bullpen edge here.
- 28:47Speaker 3: They ranked ninth. The Giants are seventeenth of the year
- 28:51Speaker 3: rays pretty decent, so both bullpens are all right. I
- 28:55Speaker 3: would say worry a little bit more about the arrest
- 28:58Speaker 3: situation for San Francisco. San Francisco, with that one game
- 29:02Speaker 3: yesterday nineteen runs of course field, they moved up from
- 29:05Speaker 3: like twenty fifth to fourteenth offensively because of one game.
- 29:11Speaker 3: I'm not gonna buy it, man, I think they're gonna
- 29:13Speaker 3: fall back down. They're not this good of an offense,
- 29:16Speaker 3: and Milwaukee is twenty fifth, which is ridiculous, but I
- 29:20Speaker 3: think Milwaukee is actually the better offense here. I'm not
- 29:22Speaker 3: gonna put that much weight into one offensive explosion from
- 29:27Speaker 3: San Francisco. In course field against the Rockies. Pitching Landon
- 29:31Speaker 3: Roupe is pitching for Sar Francisco here, though you know,
- 29:34Speaker 3: I like him. I think he's pretty good three point
- 29:37Speaker 3: three ERA, one point one to eight whip. He's been
- 29:39Speaker 3: better on the road, which doesn't make sense to me,
- 29:42Speaker 3: but I guess I'm not gonna question it because Sar
- 29:44Speaker 3: Francisco's ballpark is pretty pitcher friendly. He's got a two
- 29:49Speaker 3: point six to seven roady RA, which is good. He's
- 29:53Speaker 3: been mediocre kind of this month though. He's a lot
- 29:55Speaker 3: too many hits. He's got thirty one strikeouts in twenty
- 29:58Speaker 3: four to two thirds inning, but thirty one hits allowed.
- 30:02Speaker 3: That is a huge problem. He's been way too hit
- 30:04Speaker 3: a bomb now. He's only allowed eight walks, but his
- 30:07Speaker 3: team has lost every game he's pitched this month, though
- 30:09Speaker 3: a lot of it is that they haven't scored at all.
- 30:12Speaker 3: In fact, they have not scored more than three in
- 30:14Speaker 3: any of those games behind him, so it's not really
- 30:17Speaker 3: his fault. The offense has been awful. He's allowed four
- 30:21Speaker 3: or fewer earned runs on all those outings. Over the
- 30:24Speaker 3: course of the season. He's got some good numbers way
- 30:26Speaker 3: below one hit per inning, above one strike up per inning.
- 30:29Speaker 3: The walk rate is a little bit high, so that's
- 30:31Speaker 3: kind of an issue, but overall pretty good stuff Here.
- 30:35Speaker 3: It will be going up against the Brewers. His numbers
- 30:39Speaker 3: against them are pretty good and forty one at bats
- 30:42Speaker 3: to forty four batting average six twenty two ops seven
- 30:45Speaker 3: to seven strike up walk ratio is not good, but
- 30:47Speaker 3: the rest of those numbers are pretty good, So I
- 30:50Speaker 3: think Roup sets up to do pretty well here. The
- 30:53Speaker 3: home road splits are in favor of him here as well.
- 30:55Speaker 3: Situation kind of backs him a little bit. Here. He
- 30:58Speaker 3: will be going up against Shane Drohan, which I don't
- 31:02Speaker 3: really know what Milwaukee's doing or why they're doing this,
- 31:04Speaker 3: because I went five games back and it looks like
- 31:08Speaker 3: it's supposed to be a Kyle Harrison's turn in the rotation,
- 31:11Speaker 3: and Harrison's been really good. Harrison is I assume, probably
- 31:16Speaker 3: pitching tomorrow because I don't think he's injured, so I
- 31:19Speaker 3: don't know Milwaukee is just deciding to use their long
- 31:22Speaker 3: relief man as basically their starter here. Drohan, he's been
- 31:26Speaker 3: good this year. I think he's made at least one
- 31:28Speaker 3: start as well. Yeah, he did make one start, but
- 31:31Speaker 3: he's mostly been a long relief guy. He's got a
- 31:34Speaker 3: two point six y three ERA one point one whip.
- 31:37Speaker 3: I don't really think he's gonna go deep here. He's
- 31:39Speaker 3: gone at most like four innings four and a third
- 31:42Speaker 3: innings in any of his outings this year, so you're
- 31:44Speaker 3: probably looking at about three or four innings from him
- 31:47Speaker 3: and then the Brewers' bullpen. But that might be good
- 31:49Speaker 3: enough because Drohan has actually been fine and their bullpen
- 31:54Speaker 3: is solid, so you might still get good pitching out
- 31:57Speaker 3: of Milwaukee here and again they're facing Eightscisco line up
- 32:01Speaker 3: that I still really don't think is good. Drohan's got
- 32:05Speaker 3: good numbers though, I mean more than one strike up
- 32:08Speaker 3: er ding fewer than one hit all upper ending, but
- 32:10Speaker 3: most of it in relief, remember, and a low walk
- 32:13Speaker 3: rate too. Not bad. His numbers against the Giants, they
- 32:19Speaker 3: don't have any. So the Giants have never faced him before,
- 32:22Speaker 3: so he does have a little bit of an advantage
- 32:24Speaker 3: there where he's unfamiliar to them. In fact, Drohan is
- 32:27Speaker 3: actually a rookie this year, even though he's twenty seven.
- 32:30Speaker 3: This is his first major league season. So it's an
- 32:35Speaker 3: interesting setup here, man, I mean, to me, it's kind
- 32:39Speaker 3: of looking more like an under than anything else. The
- 32:43Speaker 3: total for the game is seven and a half. I
- 32:46Speaker 3: might be looking first five, though, I mean, I just
- 32:49Speaker 3: I don't know how much I trust like San Francisco's
- 32:51Speaker 3: unrested bullpen here. I mean, I guess he could try
- 32:54Speaker 3: to go full game with it. You'll get under the
- 32:57Speaker 3: seven and a half. Most likely they have to pay
- 32:59Speaker 3: a little little bit for it. I probably would agree
- 33:02Speaker 3: with that. I think I agree with the San Francisco side,
- 33:05Speaker 3: but I would I would probably only go first five
- 33:08Speaker 3: with the San Francisco side because you're gonna back Roupe
- 33:12Speaker 3: and the better situation, but their bullpen's just a bit
- 33:14Speaker 3: unrested and the lesser bullpen. But I know Milwaukee likely
- 33:18Speaker 3: will be the first team going to the bullpen here,
- 33:21Speaker 3: because I just don't think Drohan is gonna go that
- 33:23Speaker 3: deep eighty five percent of tickets, eighty six percent of
- 33:26Speaker 3: the cash on Milwaukee, though, they're around like minus one
- 33:30Speaker 3: sixty here, so it looks like they're public but also
- 33:33Speaker 3: potentially getting some of the money. I don't know. It's
- 33:35Speaker 3: a difficult game for me to figure out, man, because
- 33:37Speaker 3: I think both pitchers might actually be all right here.
- 33:40Speaker 3: So I think probably the under makes more sense to
- 33:42Speaker 3: me than anything else. All right, half hour mark, we
- 33:46Speaker 3: got less or a fewer than half the games left
- 33:49Speaker 3: and two WNBA games. I'm gonna take a break, even
- 33:53Speaker 3: though I usually do it in about an hour. I'll
- 33:55Speaker 3: be back in a second, finish this off, and that'll
- 33:58Speaker 3: do it, and we'll hope that the one play that
- 34:00Speaker 3: I feel like I'm forcing, hopefully we'll get that right today.
- 35:20Speaker 3: What oh, okay, hold on man, all right? The next
- 35:26Speaker 3: game is Texas and Saint Louis. I mean, right away,
- 35:31Speaker 3: my thinking is, yeah, Texas has the better bullpen. I mean,
- 35:35Speaker 3: that's one thing. Saint Louis just beat the Cobs in
- 35:38Speaker 3: a series, including beating them yesterday, So Saint Louis could
- 35:41Speaker 3: be in a little bit of a letdown spot here.
- 35:43Speaker 3: Texas is coming in from sweeping Kansas City at home,
- 35:47Speaker 3: starting a road trip. I don't know if that's really
- 35:50Speaker 3: gonna put them in a letdown because Kansas City has
- 35:52Speaker 3: been bad, so I think Texas might be coming into
- 35:54Speaker 3: this with momentum. So I think the situation is in
- 35:58Speaker 3: favor of Texas a little bit here. Bullpen, like I said, obviously,
- 36:02Speaker 3: is in favor of Texas. Even though they used four
- 36:04Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday, Kansas City used three. Kansas City is
- 36:08Speaker 3: ranked dead last in bullpen here and Texas is obviously
- 36:13Speaker 3: way better. Texas is tenth, but they're a strong bullpen
- 36:17Speaker 3: men hitting wise, Kansas City has not been good in
- 36:21Speaker 3: that department either. They're twenty sixth and Texas is nineteenth.
- 36:27Speaker 3: So that's interesting. This is going to be Oh I'm
- 36:31Speaker 3: looking at why am I talking about Kansas City Saint Louis.
- 36:34Speaker 3: I apologize, Saint Louis, I'm an idiot. The other Kansas
- 36:37Speaker 3: team or sorry, Kansas City's in Missouri. Sorry, I know
- 36:42Speaker 3: there's a Kansas City in both states. I know, I'm aware,
- 36:45Speaker 3: I know geography, but yeah, usually the one that usually
- 36:49Speaker 3: gets talked about is Missouri. Anyway, Saint Louis used one
- 36:52Speaker 3: relief pitcher yesterday. My mistake. It was my man, Hunter Dobbins,
- 36:56Speaker 3: former Red Sox player and Yankee hater. I like Hunter
- 37:00Speaker 3: Toppins man. Uh, Saint Louis has got him over there.
- 37:05Speaker 3: But yeah, so Texas did use more relief pitchers, but
- 37:08Speaker 3: Texas has a better bullpend Like I said, they're tenth
- 37:11Speaker 3: Saint Louis Is, where are they at they're not as
- 37:15Speaker 3: bad as Kansas City. They're nineteenth, and then Saint Louis's
- 37:18Speaker 3: offense is better than Kansas City's as well. They're at seventeenth.
- 37:23Speaker 3: Uh so they're actually better than Texas as well slightly.
- 37:26Speaker 3: Uh So, my mistake. Jacob de Grom is pitching for
- 37:30Speaker 3: Texas here. Uh he's been good. We know that three
- 37:33Speaker 3: point seven to seven e RA one point oh one whip,
- 37:36Speaker 3: but he's actually been bad on the road. Uh six
- 37:39Speaker 3: ERA on the road. So he's pitched much better at
- 37:42Speaker 3: home in Texas's pitcher friendly ballpark, but Saint Louis is
- 37:46Speaker 3: a pretty pitcher friendly ballpark as well. So I'm not
- 37:49Speaker 3: ready to say, oh, de Gram's just gonna be bad
- 37:51Speaker 3: here because he is bad on the road, but it
- 37:53Speaker 3: is a concern if you want to back him on
- 37:55Speaker 3: the road. He's been good this month, though, even though
- 37:59Speaker 3: his team has lost four out of his five starts,
- 38:01Speaker 3: and a lot of those starts they put up relatively
- 38:04Speaker 3: little offense. But he did get hit around a couple
- 38:06Speaker 3: of times against the Yankees in against Anaheim, and yes,
- 38:10Speaker 3: both those games are on the road. Houston as well,
- 38:12Speaker 3: that was also a road game, so yes, that is
- 38:15Speaker 3: concerning his last three road games, he didn't pitch well,
- 38:18Speaker 3: but he has a thirty to five strikeout walk ratio
- 38:21Speaker 3: still this month and twenty five hits a lot in
- 38:23Speaker 3: twenty eight to third innings. Those numbers are all good,
- 38:26Speaker 3: but the nine home runs allowed. As concerning he's allowed
- 38:29Speaker 3: thirteen on the season. I think ten of them have
- 38:31Speaker 3: been on the road, so his home run he's allowing
- 38:36Speaker 3: way too many home runs on the road. Dude. He's
- 38:38Speaker 3: an extreme fly ball pitcher, but that's not good obviously,
- 38:43Speaker 3: But this ballpark might not be that bad for him.
- 38:46Speaker 3: Like I said, this is a less home run could
- 38:48Speaker 3: do the ballpark than a lot of these other ones.
- 38:50Speaker 3: He's still allowed fewer than one hit per inning. His
- 38:52Speaker 3: walk rate is low, his strikeout rate is high, so
- 38:55Speaker 3: his numbers overall are good. Against Saint Louis. He also
- 39:00Speaker 3: does have good numbers. In only ten at bats, he
- 39:03Speaker 3: only have five hitters. I've ever seen him. Two under
- 39:05Speaker 3: batting average five point thirty three OPS, three to two
- 39:08Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, no extra base hits. So I think
- 39:12Speaker 3: de grom I would lean towards him pitching well here,
- 39:14Speaker 3: even though I do worry about his road numbers. He
- 39:17Speaker 3: will be opposed by Michael McGreevy, who is a good pitcher,
- 39:20Speaker 3: even though he's not a strike up pitcher. He's been
- 39:23Speaker 3: good two point nine to eighty RA one point zero
- 39:26Speaker 3: nine whip. He's been better at home one point nine
- 39:29Speaker 3: to three home ee RA. So the home road splits
- 39:32Speaker 3: favorite McGreevy here. He didn't pitch well in his last
- 39:35Speaker 3: game against Milwaukee, and we still got the underwright that
- 39:37Speaker 3: was a winner on the show. Even though McGreevy didn't
- 39:41Speaker 3: do well. Harrison did really well on the other side
- 39:43Speaker 3: of that. I think it was Harrison, so we still
- 39:46Speaker 3: got that right. But mcgreevy's pitched fairly well this month. However,
- 39:50Speaker 3: you do have to worry that maybe he's falling out
- 39:52Speaker 3: a form a little bit here because he did get
- 39:54Speaker 3: knocked around a little bit by Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. They
- 39:57Speaker 3: both got a lot of hits off him. But those
- 40:00Speaker 3: are both probably better offenses than Texas's offense. I know
- 40:03Speaker 3: Milwaukee's not ranked that high right now offensively, but still
- 40:07Speaker 3: Texas offense is not that good overall. McGreevy he has
- 40:11Speaker 3: a low strikeout rate, but he does not allow a
- 40:14Speaker 3: lot of hits or walks, so his numbers are pretty
- 40:16Speaker 3: good overall. In fact, that start where we still won
- 40:21Speaker 3: the under, he allowed five and runs there, and he
- 40:23Speaker 3: had not allowed more than four and any other starts,
- 40:26Speaker 3: and he's allowed three or four in all but two
- 40:28Speaker 3: starts this season. So I think he will actually pitch
- 40:32Speaker 3: well here. That would be my guess, even though you
- 40:34Speaker 3: do have to worry that his recent form is questionable.
- 40:37Speaker 3: Texas only as two hitters have ever faced him, Jung
- 40:41Speaker 3: and Nemo, and they are are young and Nimo, and
- 40:44Speaker 3: they're zero for six with no strikeouts and no walks,
- 40:48Speaker 3: so he's unfamiliar to them. And the guys that have
- 40:50Speaker 3: faced him haven't done well. So I think both pitchers
- 40:53Speaker 3: are actually gonna pitch well here. I think a first
- 40:56Speaker 3: five under is the way I would look at this game.
- 40:58Speaker 3: I just don't really want to deal with Saint Louis bullpen,
- 41:01Speaker 3: although I know I went full game with that under
- 41:03Speaker 3: that last time a grievy was out there. You know,
- 41:06Speaker 3: if you want to go full game, it kind of
- 41:08Speaker 3: makes sense, I guess, because you got a good bullpen
- 41:11Speaker 3: on the side of Texas, even though they're a little
- 41:12Speaker 3: bit unrested. Saint Louis's bullpen is rested well enough, there's
- 41:17Speaker 3: an argument to be made for a full game under
- 41:20Speaker 3: for sure it's seven and a half as the total,
- 41:22Speaker 3: which is low. I still might prefer first five, though,
- 41:26Speaker 3: then you don't really have to worry about texas bullpen
- 41:28Speaker 3: being unrested Saint Louis's bullpen being a bit questionable. I
- 41:32Speaker 3: think the bigger advantage that you get probably is by
- 41:34Speaker 3: playing at first five and just focusing on the starters here.
- 41:39Speaker 3: You're probably looking at about a three and a half here,
- 41:41Speaker 3: and we've got some really loud trucks outside right now.
- 41:44Speaker 3: The money is also coming in towards Saint Louis sixty
- 41:47Speaker 3: seven percent of tickets fifty eight percent of the cash
- 41:50Speaker 3: on Texas. So some of that I think is because
- 41:53Speaker 3: de Grom has been pretty fadable on the road here,
- 41:56Speaker 3: and I think you're probably getting a little bit taxed
- 41:59Speaker 3: for de Grom because it's de Gram, Like you know,
- 42:02Speaker 3: he gets a lot of respect in the market, which
- 42:04Speaker 3: is why Texas is favored around minus one twenty something year.
- 42:07Speaker 3: So I think that's why the money is fading them.
- 42:10Speaker 3: I think the thought is, well, McGreevy can kind of
- 42:12Speaker 3: duel him here. I could see the argument for it.
- 42:16Speaker 3: I mean, if you think it's gonna be a close
- 42:17Speaker 3: game and the McGreevy can kind of duel here, he's
- 42:20Speaker 3: got the better of the you know, the better of
- 42:24Speaker 3: the home road splits here. I don't know if I
- 42:26Speaker 3: would want Saint Louis's bullpen in that equation though, so
- 42:29Speaker 3: maybe a first five. Saint Louis is an underdog, there
- 42:33Speaker 3: is something to be said about that. But I think
- 42:36Speaker 3: Texas is in the slightly better situation though. Uh, Colorado
- 42:40Speaker 3: at Anaheim, I mean, just on the surface of this
- 42:44Speaker 3: game like kind of screw Like, just this matchup alone
- 42:47Speaker 3: kind of screams over, Like, I mean, come on, you
- 42:50Speaker 3: got two bad bullpends here. This is a pretty hit
- 42:53Speaker 3: or friendly ballpark. The Angels are turning off from the
- 42:56Speaker 3: road though. They just went to Detroit and Tampa Bay,
- 42:58Speaker 3: so they're traveling cross country. So this is a negative
- 43:02Speaker 3: spot for the Angels for sure, not even though they
- 43:04Speaker 3: did just lose to Tampa Bay, traveling you know, across
- 43:09Speaker 3: three time zones with no time off, even though I
- 43:12Speaker 3: know it was an afternoon game for them yesterday, but
- 43:14Speaker 3: still it's not a good spot coming back home from that,
- 43:17Speaker 3: Plus you can get distracted. Do you think they're really
- 43:19Speaker 3: gonna be excited to face the Rockies? Probably not, even
- 43:23Speaker 3: though Anaheim is a bad team, But I think it's
- 43:26Speaker 3: even worse for a bad team returning on from the road.
- 43:29Speaker 3: And Anaheim's a massive favor here too, because they have
- 43:32Speaker 3: a perceived huge starting pitching edge year or maybe legitimate
- 43:37Speaker 3: huge starting pitching edge here. So Anaheim's laying a huge
- 43:40Speaker 3: price here. But they're in a bad situation. But of
- 43:43Speaker 3: course I do not want Colorado here either, you know,
- 43:47Speaker 3: when you look at the matchup here, Yeah, there's just
- 43:48Speaker 3: no way Colorado. Their bullpen is very used right now,
- 43:53Speaker 3: and they're not a good bullpen, and these four guys yesterday.
- 43:56Speaker 3: Anaheim's bullpen is pretty used up as well. They use
- 43:59Speaker 3: three guys yesterday, not a good bullpen. Anaheim is second
- 44:03Speaker 3: worst at twenty ninth, although their ERA is still worse,
- 44:07Speaker 3: still better than Houston's, but still Colorado twenty fifth. I mean,
- 44:11Speaker 3: you're looking at two, like I said, very fatable while
- 44:15Speaker 3: bullpens here, Colorado twentieth. In offense, they're not a great offense,
- 44:20Speaker 3: Angels seventeenth, but these offenses might be able to do
- 44:24Speaker 3: something against at least against these bullpens. Kyle Freeland is
- 44:28Speaker 3: pitching for Colorado. He's been bad eight point eighty r,
- 44:32Speaker 3: one point seventy five whip and it's not just corse
- 44:35Speaker 3: Field either, because he's been equally bad on the road.
- 44:38Speaker 3: Uh So, this is all bad. He's been lit up
- 44:42Speaker 3: in most of his starts this month. He's allowed way
- 44:44Speaker 3: more than one run per inning, and he's allowed like
- 44:47Speaker 3: two hits per inning this month, and the Rockies have
- 44:50Speaker 3: lost every one of his starts and the last two
- 44:53Speaker 3: of the previous month. Two. This is all really, really bad.
- 44:57Speaker 3: The walk rate is high, ten home runs a lot
- 45:00Speaker 3: this month. To strike got rate is good, but that's
- 45:02Speaker 3: the only thing you could say. Over the course of
- 45:05Speaker 3: the season. He's got an okay strike out rate. His
- 45:07Speaker 3: hit rate is extremely high on the course of the season,
- 45:10Speaker 3: he's allowed too many of them runs and his walk
- 45:12Speaker 3: rate on the season actually isn't really that bad. But Freeland,
- 45:15Speaker 3: I mean, this is a guy that gets knocked around.
- 45:17Speaker 3: Man his numbers against Anaheim, they're also bad. Sixty at
- 45:23Speaker 3: bats three seventeen batting average, nine h nine ops, fifteen
- 45:27Speaker 3: to four strikeout walk ratier is not too bad, but
- 45:30Speaker 3: this Anaheim team's definitely had the better of Freeland, so
- 45:35Speaker 3: that looks really really bad to me for Colorado's set
- 45:38Speaker 3: up here. Anaheim's going with Jose Soriano, who has been
- 45:42Speaker 3: the considerably better of the two pitchers two point sixty
- 45:45Speaker 3: five yr, one point one five whip, which is why
- 45:48Speaker 3: Anaheim's a massive favorite here or part of the reason.
- 45:52Speaker 3: Soriano's not as good at home though, which was the
- 45:54Speaker 3: case last year too. I don't know why. I mean,
- 45:57Speaker 3: some of it is that it's a more hitter friendly ballpark,
- 45:59Speaker 3: but he's just been better on the road than he
- 46:02Speaker 3: is at home last year. In this year, he's got
- 46:04Speaker 3: a three point sixty three homey RRA, which still isn't bad.
- 46:08Speaker 3: But he's had his worst starts at home. I know
- 46:10Speaker 3: one of them was against the Dodgers, an elite offense,
- 46:14Speaker 3: so whatever, maybe give him a pass for that. He's
- 46:16Speaker 3: been walking way too many guys recently, though, fifteen walks
- 46:20Speaker 3: in twenty eight and two thirds ings in May. That
- 46:23Speaker 3: is bad. Twenty nine strikeouts twenty seven hits was fine,
- 46:26Speaker 3: but that amount of walks is ridiculous. Over the course
- 46:29Speaker 3: of the season, he's got a high strikeout rate, a
- 46:31Speaker 3: very low hit rate, but his walk rate is too high.
- 46:35Speaker 3: That's been his problem, the wildness. He's got to do
- 46:37Speaker 3: something about that. Against Colorado, though he has good numbers,
- 46:41Speaker 3: they only have nineteen at bats against him, though only
- 46:44Speaker 3: five of their hitters have faced him, they have no
- 46:47Speaker 3: extra base hits, four strikeouts, one walk, two to eleven
- 46:50Speaker 3: batting average for sixty one ohps. So I was thinking
- 46:54Speaker 3: over in this game, but you know, I have two
- 46:58Speaker 3: problems with it. Soriano is good enough that he could
- 47:01Speaker 3: certainly pitch well here, So I mean you could look
- 47:04Speaker 3: towards Anaheim, or you could look towards Anaheim going over
- 47:08Speaker 3: their team total. That makes a lot of sense, right.
- 47:10Speaker 3: It looks like Anaheim should be able to score against
- 47:12Speaker 3: Freeland plus Colorado's bullpens, so that all makes sense. Problem
- 47:16Speaker 3: that I then have with that is that Anaheim's returning
- 47:19Speaker 3: on from the road, which I think can affect their
- 47:21Speaker 3: hitting in a negative way because they can be distracted,
- 47:24Speaker 3: and I think just overall, the distractions kind of loom
- 47:27Speaker 3: over you when you're in a spot like that. So
- 47:29Speaker 3: I just can't do it, man, I can't get on
- 47:31Speaker 3: board with it. If you forced me, to give you
- 47:33Speaker 3: a play on this game. I think I would still
- 47:36Speaker 3: I think I would go over Anaheim's team total in
- 47:38Speaker 3: this game. I think I would still do that, but
- 47:41Speaker 3: I don't know. With the return home spot and whatever,
- 47:43Speaker 3: I just don't think I could get there with it
- 47:46Speaker 3: all Right, Then we got a Dodgers at Arizona. Arizona
- 47:52Speaker 3: is returning on from a road trip. They went to
- 47:53Speaker 3: San Francisco and Seattle. They swept San Francisco, then got
- 47:57Speaker 3: swept by Seattle. Seattle's starting to play better. Now Arizona's
- 48:01Speaker 3: returning over from the road. And again I will point
- 48:04Speaker 3: out returning home from the road negative spot. You have
- 48:07Speaker 3: to get back to home life. But this is a
- 48:09Speaker 3: divisional game against the division leading Dodgers, dude. And by
- 48:13Speaker 3: the way, the Dodgers not long ago were behind San
- 48:17Speaker 3: Diego and now they're five and a half games ahead
- 48:19Speaker 3: of them, which you knew that was gonna happen, though,
- 48:24Speaker 3: But I Arizona, I don't think they're gonna overlook La,
- 48:27Speaker 3: you know what I mean. Yeah, you're returning over from
- 48:29Speaker 3: the road. It's a negative spot. You have to factor
- 48:31Speaker 3: that in. But I don't think they're gonna be fully distracted, right,
- 48:34Speaker 3: because this is a huge series they're starting here against
- 48:38Speaker 3: la As far as the bullpens, both bullpens have actually
- 48:42Speaker 3: been good. The Dodgers did use three guys out of
- 48:45Speaker 3: theirs yesterday, Arizona used four. Dodgers have the better bullpen.
- 48:50Speaker 3: They're ranked second. The d Backs finally have an ERA
- 48:53Speaker 3: below four out of their bullpen and they're ranked third. Still,
- 48:57Speaker 3: I gotta admit they're a decent bullpen, but I don't
- 49:00Speaker 3: think they're an upper echelon bullpen. So I think the
- 49:04Speaker 3: Dodgers do have the better bullpen. Dodgers are number one
- 49:07Speaker 3: in offense, the Diamondbacks are fifteenth, so both teams have
- 49:11Speaker 3: been able to hit Emmett Shean is going for the Dodgers,
- 49:15Speaker 3: we have. I think what we have here is the younger,
- 49:18Speaker 3: more talented pitcher on the side of the Dodgers here.
- 49:21Speaker 3: I know his numbers don't look that good four point
- 49:23Speaker 3: seventy RRA and one point two four whip, but Shean
- 49:26Speaker 3: definitely has good stuff.
- 49:27Speaker 4: You know.
- 49:28Speaker 3: I've been looking at his numbers the last couple of
- 49:29Speaker 3: seasons and I'm like, yeah, this guy definitely is very capable,
- 49:33Speaker 3: and we're starting to see him pitch well. It's just
- 49:36Speaker 3: you know, it's been a little bit rocky. But he's
- 49:38Speaker 3: still pitched well. But he's been bad on the roads.
- 49:40Speaker 3: That's one problem. Six point five to two Roady Ray
- 49:43Speaker 3: and this is a hitter friendly Diamondbacks ballpark, so that
- 49:47Speaker 3: is one issue where maybe you don't really want to
- 49:49Speaker 3: jump on him here because of that. He's pitched well recently.
- 49:54Speaker 3: The Dodgers won his last four starts. He pitched well
- 49:57Speaker 3: against the Braves in there, even though that was a
- 49:59Speaker 3: short and starts A little bit of a concern that
- 50:04Speaker 3: he's not gone five innings in a couple of his
- 50:06Speaker 3: most recent starts. That is a bit of an issue.
- 50:09Speaker 3: But he's allowed two or fewer ear runs in more
- 50:11Speaker 3: than half of them, so that's good at least. But yeah,
- 50:15Speaker 3: he's a little bit up and down. But I think
- 50:16Speaker 3: overall he's a good pitcher. He's got way over one
- 50:19Speaker 3: strike up per inning below one hit per inning. His
- 50:21Speaker 3: walk rate is also low, so I think he's good,
- 50:25Speaker 3: and basically similar numbers over the last month or so too,
- 50:28Speaker 3: So I generally I like she and I think he
- 50:31Speaker 3: is good. But you do have to worry about his
- 50:33Speaker 3: road numbers a bit here. His numbers against Arizona specifically
- 50:37Speaker 3: are hard to figure out because it's a small sample size.
- 50:40Speaker 3: Eighteen at bats, only five hitters have faced him, but
- 50:44Speaker 3: he's held them to two twenty two batting average, so
- 50:46Speaker 3: that's really low. Ten strikeouts, no walks. That's really good.
- 50:50Speaker 3: He's striking out. You know, these guys have struck out
- 50:53Speaker 3: against him in more than half of their at bats,
- 50:56Speaker 3: but a huge amount of the other at bats resulted
- 51:00Speaker 3: in an extra base hits. He's got an eight thirty
- 51:02Speaker 3: three OPS against them because Carol and Marte both of
- 51:05Speaker 3: a home run off him, and Perdomo has a double
- 51:08Speaker 3: off him, so when they've hit she and they've actually
- 51:11Speaker 3: hit him pretty hard. So that's a little bit concerning
- 51:14Speaker 3: as well that that OPS is side, but it's a
- 51:15Speaker 3: small sample size. Eduardo Rodriguez is getting the start for
- 51:20Speaker 3: Arizona here. He's got good numbers. Two point three to
- 51:23Speaker 3: one e Ray, one point two to one Whipple the Lake.
- 51:26Speaker 3: I always point out he's not what he once was,
- 51:29Speaker 3: you know, back when he was on the Red Sox
- 51:31Speaker 3: and won a World Series with them, whatever and all
- 51:33Speaker 3: this other crap. He's had injuries since then. His velocity
- 51:37Speaker 3: is kind of gone, but he's still finding a way
- 51:39Speaker 3: to pitch pretty effectively, so you got to give him
- 51:42Speaker 3: credit for that. He's he's thirty three years old. Now
- 51:45Speaker 3: he's been really good at home one point three to
- 51:48Speaker 3: one Homie ra so the home road splits favorite e
- 51:51Speaker 3: Rod in this game over shean. He's been good this month.
- 51:55Speaker 3: He's alloted three or four earned runs in every outing.
- 51:58Speaker 3: He's got at least five and a third in every outing.
- 52:00Speaker 3: He's got six or more in all but one. He's
- 52:03Speaker 3: allowed twenty five hits in thirty three to two thirds innings,
- 52:06Speaker 3: nine walks, twenty seven strikeouts, not a really high strikeout rate.
- 52:09Speaker 3: But again, this is basically what you kind of expect
- 52:13Speaker 3: out of him or want out of him. Like this
- 52:14Speaker 3: is not bad, really, but he faced a lot of
- 52:18Speaker 3: weak lineups in there, the Mets, the Rockies twice San Francisco,
- 52:22Speaker 3: and yeah, one of those starts is in course field,
- 52:23Speaker 3: but he actually kind of struggled in that one. Overall,
- 52:26Speaker 3: his like I said, his strikeout rate is way down,
- 52:29Speaker 3: but his hit rate is loan. His walk rate is
- 52:32Speaker 3: a little bit high, I would say, but still overall, yeah,
- 52:36Speaker 3: he's put up a decent season. So far, but he
- 52:39Speaker 3: does have to face the Dodgers here. You know, that's
- 52:43Speaker 3: basically as difficult as it gets for a pitcher. Dodgers
- 52:46Speaker 3: have hit him pretty well on one hundred and twenty
- 52:48Speaker 3: one at bats to eighty one batting average, eight to
- 52:51Speaker 3: one ops, thirty strikeouts, eighteen walks. That it's a lot
- 52:55Speaker 3: of walks. So I don't really trust e Rot against
- 52:58Speaker 3: this lineup. At the very least, She and I think
- 53:01Speaker 3: basically he does have the better matchup numbers here. You know,
- 53:05Speaker 3: I don't really want to jump on Arizona in a
- 53:07Speaker 3: return home spot either. It's a difficult game to figure out, dude,
- 53:11Speaker 3: it is. There might be some arguments for an over here. Uh,
- 53:16Speaker 3: you know, e Rod doesn't match up that well against
- 53:18Speaker 3: the Dodgers. You got shean not good on the road either.
- 53:22Speaker 3: I think E Rod is probably not really as good
- 53:24Speaker 3: as his numbers make him look. The money's coming in
- 53:27Speaker 3: on the Dodgers though, seventy six percent of tickets, ninety
- 53:30Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on them. They're like a
- 53:32Speaker 3: minus one fifty something favorite.
- 53:35Speaker 4: You know.
- 53:36Speaker 3: I mean I might agree with that just because I
- 53:39Speaker 3: like shean over Erod generally. Uh, but again, you got
- 53:42Speaker 3: to weigh his road numbers there, and they're not good.
- 53:45Speaker 6: Man.
- 53:46Speaker 3: You know, Arizona is returning over from the road though,
- 53:49Speaker 3: so it's a negative spot for them. Generally. It's a
- 53:51Speaker 3: difficult game to figure out. Man. I do think it
- 53:54Speaker 3: over makes some sense in the game though, the totals
- 53:57Speaker 3: at nine, But there are definitely arguments against it too,
- 53:59Speaker 3: Like you could argue both pitchers might do well here too,
- 54:02Speaker 3: so I don't want anything to do with it. Plus,
- 54:04Speaker 3: the bullpens are actually decent too. So even though you know,
- 54:07Speaker 3: when I go over, I go full game though, because
- 54:09Speaker 3: I expected to kind of just cascade and that the
- 54:12Speaker 3: teams when the starting pitchers don't do well, the bullpens
- 54:15Speaker 3: a lot of times we'll just you'll use like your
- 54:17Speaker 3: worst relief pitchers when that happens, relief pitchers, Kyle, what's up?
- 54:24Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out. The last game on the baseball
- 54:28Speaker 3: schedule is Mets at Seattle, an interleague game here. I
- 54:33Speaker 3: think we have a couple of interleague games today. Yeah,
- 54:36Speaker 3: the other one was Colorado and Anaheim. Seattle is on
- 54:40Speaker 3: a roll right now. They're staying at home. They've won
- 54:42Speaker 3: six games in a row. They just swept Arizona at home.
- 54:45Speaker 3: Will they overlook the Mets. I don't know. The Mets
- 54:48Speaker 3: are playing well right now too. And the Mets have
- 54:49Speaker 3: won four games in a row. They just swept Miami,
- 54:52Speaker 3: so one of these teams is gonna have their losing
- 54:55Speaker 3: streak snap tonight. The Mets are having to travel to
- 54:57Speaker 3: the Pacific Coast though, and you know I talk about this.
- 55:00Speaker 3: Two things to consider here. When a team starts a
- 55:03Speaker 3: road trip, usually they are focused. They want to get
- 55:04Speaker 3: the road trip off on the right foot. But an
- 55:06Speaker 3: East Coast team having to go all the way out
- 55:08Speaker 3: west and play a late night game have to adjust
- 55:11Speaker 3: to the time zone with no time off. That's difficult.
- 55:14Speaker 1: Man.
- 55:14Speaker 3: That can like mess with your biological clocks. I don't
- 55:17Speaker 3: really love that for the Mets. Both these bullpens have
- 55:22Speaker 3: been pretty solid. The Mets only used David Peterson out
- 55:26Speaker 3: of the bullpend yesterday. But we're gonna have to talk
- 55:29Speaker 3: about because this is gonna be basically a Mets bullpend
- 55:31Speaker 3: ish game here, so you have to take that into consideration. Seattle,
- 55:36Speaker 3: their bullpend used nobody according to this yesterday. I don't
- 55:39Speaker 3: know if that's is that accurate. I don't know, maybe
- 55:41Speaker 3: it is because sometimes that site is screwed up, but
- 55:44Speaker 3: it doesn't look like it is today. No, that can't
- 55:48Speaker 3: be right. That game with ten innings, Actually it is.
- 55:51Speaker 3: They use Luis Castillo for the remainder of the game
- 55:54Speaker 3: yesterday after Bryce Miller, so the Mariners basically used two
- 55:58Speaker 3: starters yesterday and didn't use any relief pitcher, So that
- 56:01Speaker 3: is accurate. So the Mariners bullpen, they're a pretty good bullpen,
- 56:05Speaker 3: even though they're ranked sorry that's hitting. Where are they at?
- 56:09Speaker 3: The ranked sixteenth? But they have one of the best
- 56:11Speaker 3: bullpen y r. Rays. I think they're better than the
- 56:13Speaker 3: Mets bullpen, even though the Mets bullpen is ranked eighth.
- 56:16Speaker 3: Both bullpens are good though, so take that into a
- 56:19Speaker 3: into consideration. Mariners are hitting well. They're at eleventh now,
- 56:25Speaker 3: so they've moved way up offensively and they have a
- 56:28Speaker 3: huge advantage there because the Mets are still last thirtieth,
- 56:32Speaker 3: So big offensive edge for Seattle here, Jaymain, what's up?
- 56:37Speaker 3: You want the Mets here? I do not like that
- 56:43Speaker 3: Miller and Castillo. Yes, there's something wrong with Castillo. I
- 56:47Speaker 3: don't know what's going on there, but the Mets are
- 56:49Speaker 3: going with a bullpen game. Here. They have Austin Warren
- 56:52Speaker 3: listed as their starter here. He's a thirty year old
- 56:56Speaker 3: relief pitcher, so I don't think he's gonna go deep
- 56:58Speaker 3: into this game. In fact, I pretty much know he
- 57:01Speaker 3: isn't because you can look back. I can tell you
- 57:03Speaker 3: exactly what the Mets are doing here. He's got a
- 57:06Speaker 3: one point four ERA one point one to nine WIT.
- 57:09Speaker 3: But whatever, he's gonna go about one inning here. I
- 57:11Speaker 3: think he also pitched two days ago on Saturday, so
- 57:15Speaker 3: he's gonna be an opener. He's gonna pitch one inning,
- 57:17Speaker 3: and then the Mets are gonna go with Sean Mania.
- 57:20Speaker 3: It would be his turn in the rotation now, because
- 57:22Speaker 3: I think he was supposed to actually pitch yesterday, I think,
- 57:26Speaker 3: but he did not. He was David Peterson yesterday. So
- 57:29Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure Sean Mania is pitching here today. I
- 57:32Speaker 3: think he's gonna get the bulk of the pitching duties. Yeah,
- 57:35Speaker 3: he hasn't pitched since May twenty six, so I'm pretty
- 57:38Speaker 3: sure he's gonna pitch here today. I have no idea
- 57:41Speaker 3: how many innings he's gonna go, because he hasn't gone
- 57:43Speaker 3: more than four in any of his outings. So far
- 57:45Speaker 3: this year, he's gone three or four basically in all
- 57:48Speaker 3: of them. Manaia, I mean he's yeah. I mean he
- 57:51Speaker 3: had some good years in his career, but overall, man
- 57:56Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean this season he's been pretty bad.
- 57:59Speaker 3: It just his numbers throughout his career have been way
- 58:02Speaker 3: up and down. This season has been down five or
- 58:05Speaker 3: up if if you're talking about his ERA and whip
- 58:08Speaker 3: five point five six ERA one point six to two WHIP,
- 58:12Speaker 3: I do not like any of that. He's been pretty
- 58:14Speaker 3: similar home and away. It doesn't really matter now. Yes,
- 58:17Speaker 3: Seattle's a pitcher friendly park here, Manaiah, you got to
- 58:20Speaker 3: give him a credit because he's pitched pretty well this
- 58:22Speaker 3: month at least or this past month. Going twelve innings
- 58:25Speaker 3: along fourteen hits isn't that great. But he's allowed five
- 58:29Speaker 3: walks fifteen strikeouts. Those are decent numbers. He's allowed two
- 58:33Speaker 3: or fewer earned runs and all of his appearances, but
- 58:36Speaker 3: they're all short appearances, so keep that in mind. And
- 58:40Speaker 3: he is going up against Seattle here, and Seattle has
- 58:43Speaker 3: seen a decent amount of him because he used to
- 58:45Speaker 3: be on the A's whatever. His numbers against Seattle are
- 58:48Speaker 3: pretty bad and seventy eight at bats three zero eight
- 58:50Speaker 3: batting average allowed eight sixty five ops, nineteen to seven
- 58:54Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio. I don't like what I'm seeing there.
- 58:58Speaker 3: Doesn't look good for Ana here. He's or he and
- 59:02Speaker 3: the match will be going up against Emerson Hancock for Seattle,
- 59:06Speaker 3: Hancock has been quite good two point seven to eighty RA,
- 59:10Speaker 3: one point zero one whip. He's been better at home
- 59:13Speaker 3: two point six y five homey ram in the pitcher
- 59:16Speaker 3: friendly environment here. This past month, he's allowed two or
- 59:20Speaker 3: fewer earned runs and all but one out, and he's
- 59:22Speaker 3: got at least five innings and all of them. He's
- 59:24Speaker 3: allowed twenty two hits and thirty innings, nine walks, thirty
- 59:27Speaker 3: one strikeouts. All of those numbers are pretty strong. The
- 59:31Speaker 3: walks maybe a little bit concerning, but I'm not too
- 59:34Speaker 3: concerned by that. Over the course of the season, his
- 59:36Speaker 3: numbers are pretty similar to that, right around one strike
- 59:39Speaker 3: up er inning well below one hittle upper inning walk
- 59:42Speaker 3: rate not bad either. I like Hancock, dude. He's pitching well.
- 59:46Speaker 3: He just had a one hit shutout at the A's
- 59:49Speaker 3: Stadium last time out. That's good, dude. I mean, that's
- 59:51Speaker 3: a hitter friendly ballpark. The A's are a good lineup.
- 59:54Speaker 3: The fact that he went in and did that that
- 59:56Speaker 3: shows me something, because you know, to be a little
- 1:00:00Speaker 3: bit concerned because like he did have one rough outing
- 1:00:02Speaker 3: on the road against the White Sox whatever, he bounced
- 1:00:05Speaker 3: back with a better outing against the White Sox at home. Yeah.
- 1:00:08Speaker 3: I think Hancock is pretty decent man, and he's going
- 1:00:12Speaker 3: up against a weak line up here in the Mets.
- 1:00:14Speaker 3: They only have twelve at bats against him. Five hitters
- 1:00:17Speaker 3: have faced him one sixty seven average, three ninety seven
- 1:00:21Speaker 3: ops four to one strike a walk ratio, and in fact,
- 1:00:24Speaker 3: only one hitter in the Mets lineup has ever got
- 1:00:27Speaker 3: had a hit off of him before m J. Melendez
- 1:00:30Speaker 3: is two for two, often with two singles. So I
- 1:00:33Speaker 3: think Hancock sets up a lot better in this game
- 1:00:36Speaker 3: over Warren within Manaiya coming in after Warren. I like
- 1:00:41Speaker 3: the Mariners in this game. You know one of these
- 1:00:44Speaker 3: teams is gonna lose, obviously, and I think the Mariners
- 1:00:47Speaker 3: are the better team here. The oddsmakers are favoring them,
- 1:00:50Speaker 3: the money's all coming in on the Mets. But I
- 1:00:52Speaker 3: just don't I don't get it. I don't understand it.
- 1:00:55Speaker 3: I don't see it unless I'm wrong about Mania pitching
- 1:00:59Speaker 3: and it's gonna be somebody else. I don't think I am,
- 1:01:01Speaker 3: though I could be wrong. I'm pretty sure I'm not.
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: Though.
- 1:01:05Speaker 3: Minus one thirty something is the price on Seattle here,
- 1:01:09Speaker 3: seventy one percent of tickets on them, ninety four percent
- 1:01:12Speaker 3: of the cash on the Mets. I don't know, man.
- 1:01:15Speaker 3: I think I would lean Seattle money line in that one.
- 1:01:18Speaker 3: That would be my opinion on it. I think Hancock
- 1:01:22Speaker 3: plus Seattle's bullpen that's completely rested beats whatever the fuck
- 1:01:26Speaker 3: the Mets are doing with. You know, their bullpend is
- 1:01:30Speaker 3: fairly likely to be in the game first, because it
- 1:01:33Speaker 3: looks like it's a pseudo bullpen game out of the
- 1:01:35Speaker 3: Mets here. So I like Seattle. Maybe I'm too old school,
- 1:01:38Speaker 3: but then again, I just showed you Mini's numbers. If
- 1:01:41Speaker 3: it's going to be him, I would not want to
- 1:01:43Speaker 3: back him at all in that game. All right, then
- 1:01:46Speaker 3: we have these two WNBA games. I don't like these games.
- 1:01:50Speaker 3: I mean, I don't like the WNBA, but USA Network
- 1:01:53Speaker 3: has the first game, which is Seattle at Dallas. These
- 1:01:57Speaker 3: are both gonna be somewhat later games. Dallas could in
- 1:02:00Speaker 3: a letdown spot here because they just return home from
- 1:02:03Speaker 3: a road trip after beating New York, which was still
- 1:02:06Speaker 3: a big win even though New York has been playing
- 1:02:07Speaker 3: pretty poorly. They return home and they overcame the return
- 1:02:11Speaker 3: home spot and beat Las Vegas, who is the returning
- 1:02:14Speaker 3: champs and still one of the best teams. That was
- 1:02:16Speaker 3: a big win for Dallas, man because you know, Dallas
- 1:02:19Speaker 3: is this up and coming team, young team, still trying
- 1:02:23Speaker 3: to gain their chemistry and whatever. I think they're probably
- 1:02:25Speaker 3: gonna be a playoff team this year. They're playing pretty well,
- 1:02:27Speaker 3: but that was a big win for them, Like that's
- 1:02:30Speaker 3: almost like a legitimizing win, you know what I mean.
- 1:02:33Speaker 3: Although I know they beat Indiana already whatever, but they
- 1:02:36Speaker 3: beat the team that won the championship last year, So
- 1:02:39Speaker 3: I think that could definitely put them in a letdown
- 1:02:41Speaker 3: spot here playing against a pretty bad team like Seattle here,
- 1:02:45Speaker 3: And yeah, I know Seattle is one of the worst
- 1:02:47Speaker 3: teams in the league. Even though I know they have
- 1:02:49Speaker 3: three wins here. Their wins are against Connecticut twice and
- 1:02:52Speaker 3: Washington they played a week schedule two. They've also lost
- 1:02:56Speaker 3: to both those teams once. This Seattle team is very bad.
- 1:03:01Speaker 3: They're coming off a really ugly loss to Toronto on Saturday,
- 1:03:04Speaker 3: and yes, they're having to travel from Toronto to Dallas,
- 1:03:07Speaker 3: which is not the easiest thing to do. But I
- 1:03:10Speaker 3: think I would fade Dallas in the spot that they're in.
- 1:03:12Speaker 3: It's a letdown spot. They're laying a lot of points here,
- 1:03:15Speaker 3: twelve and a half thirteen, and yeah, it's probably justified,
- 1:03:18Speaker 3: but I think I would lean towards taking the points
- 1:03:20Speaker 3: with Seattle there, but I really don't want to do it.
- 1:03:23Speaker 3: I mean, Seattle's not even as good as the record
- 1:03:25Speaker 3: makes them look or Seattle's excuse me, the Seattle's record
- 1:03:29Speaker 3: makes them look better than they even actually ores. What
- 1:03:31Speaker 3: I mean to say, they're actually worse than their record
- 1:03:34Speaker 3: even looks. I don't know if I phrased that correctly,
- 1:03:37Speaker 3: but you know what I mean, Seattle's bad. Then the
- 1:03:40Speaker 3: other game is Peacock NBC Sports, ten PM, Minnesota at Phoenix.
- 1:03:44Speaker 3: Phoenix has a really ugly record at two and seven,
- 1:03:48Speaker 3: but they've faced one of the most difficult schedules. I
- 1:03:50Speaker 3: don't think Phoenix is that bad. I mean, we took
- 1:03:52Speaker 3: them in the first game of the season. They had
- 1:03:55Speaker 3: a huge revenge when at Las Vegas. That's not easy
- 1:03:58Speaker 3: to do. They played Golden State, Minnesota, New York twice, Atlanta,
- 1:04:03Speaker 3: even Chicago, La. Those are decent teams as well. It's
- 1:04:07Speaker 3: not been an easy schedule for Phoenix so far. Man,
- 1:04:10Speaker 3: but they're returning on from a road trip here, and
- 1:04:12Speaker 3: you know, I don't like that, especially because they were
- 1:04:14Speaker 3: out East and they played pretty tough in those games
- 1:04:17Speaker 3: against Atlanta and New York. And you know, when a
- 1:04:19Speaker 3: team returns on from the road, a lot of times
- 1:04:21Speaker 3: I want to fade them because they have to get
- 1:04:23Speaker 3: back to home life, they're changing time zones, whatever. The
- 1:04:26Speaker 3: one good thing for Phoenix is they're facing Minnesota and
- 1:04:30Speaker 3: they lost to Minnesota at home earlier this year. That
- 1:04:33Speaker 3: was actually a revenge game from Minnesota because if you remember,
- 1:04:37Speaker 3: Minnesota was the number one team in the league last
- 1:04:40Speaker 3: year regular season standings, they got the one seed in
- 1:04:43Speaker 3: the playoffs. Then Collier, their best player, got hurt and
- 1:04:47Speaker 3: she's still hurt right now. She got hurt, and then
- 1:04:51Speaker 3: Phoenix upset Minnesota and knocked them out of the playoffs.
- 1:04:54Speaker 3: So that was a huge revenge game from Minnesota, and
- 1:04:57Speaker 3: Minnesota came into Phoenix and got the revenge and beat them.
- 1:05:01Speaker 3: Now the revenge could be on the other foot. Potentially,
- 1:05:03Speaker 3: Phoenix could potentially be looking to beat them here. But
- 1:05:07Speaker 3: I still don't want Phoenix in return home spot. Man,
- 1:05:10Speaker 3: I never want to play on a team in a
- 1:05:12Speaker 3: return home spot. And yeah, if you go into this
- 1:05:14Speaker 3: box score here, Minnesota shot fifty percent from the field
- 1:05:18Speaker 3: in that game, Phoenix only thirty seven percent. And Phoenix
- 1:05:22Speaker 3: had way more field goal attempts seven more field goal attempts,
- 1:05:25Speaker 3: So this was a bit of an outlier here, Like
- 1:05:28Speaker 3: the score does not really indicate what happened in this game.
- 1:05:30Speaker 3: Phoenix did go to the line a lot more though,
- 1:05:33Speaker 3: so that did help them out, So I don't love
- 1:05:34Speaker 3: seeing that. And Minnesota dominated the rebound battle, so I
- 1:05:38Speaker 3: don't really love seeing that. Phoenix did lead sixty two
- 1:05:41Speaker 3: percent of the game though. So there were some ways
- 1:05:44Speaker 3: that Phoenix was sort of better in the game, but
- 1:05:48Speaker 3: it looks like they were also kind of it was
- 1:05:50Speaker 3: misleading that they're winning the game sort of to So
- 1:05:53Speaker 3: there's nothing that I see in this box score where
- 1:05:55Speaker 3: everything's going one way like this is a huge outlier,
- 1:05:58Speaker 3: But there was an outlier that Minnesota shooting was pretty
- 1:06:02Speaker 3: much too good in the game, but the fact that
- 1:06:03Speaker 3: Minnesota dominated the rebound battle, that would worry me a
- 1:06:07Speaker 3: little bit about wanting Phoenix here as well in the
- 1:06:10Speaker 3: revenge spot. So I think there are too many negatives
- 1:06:12Speaker 3: for Phoenix here, but obviously the return home spot is
- 1:06:15Speaker 3: one of them. Minnesota's coming into this game on a
- 1:06:18Speaker 3: win streak. They've won four games in a row even
- 1:06:21Speaker 3: without call Here. Once call Here comes back, this Minnesota
- 1:06:24Speaker 3: team is definitely gonna be one of the best in
- 1:06:25Speaker 3: the league. I mean right now, they're one of the
- 1:06:28Speaker 3: best in the league even without her. So this Minnesota
- 1:06:31Speaker 3: team will be good. And in that game, I want
- 1:06:35Speaker 3: to see what the line was real quick. Minnesota was
- 1:06:37Speaker 3: a Phoenix was a four and a half point favorite
- 1:06:40Speaker 3: in that game. But in this game, I think Minnesota's favored. Yeah,
- 1:06:44Speaker 3: Minnesota is a three and a half point favorite here.
- 1:06:45Speaker 3: I don't know if there are injuries coming into players,
- 1:06:49Speaker 3: because I know it's not call he or She's not
- 1:06:51Speaker 3: back yet her She's supposed to come back around June sixth.
- 1:06:55Speaker 3: This makes no sense then, like why would Phoenix have
- 1:06:58Speaker 3: been a four and a half point favorite in that
- 1:06:59Speaker 3: first game and now Minnesota's minus three and a half.
- 1:07:02Speaker 3: Is that really just because Phoenix has a two and
- 1:07:05Speaker 3: seven record now in Minnesota has been playing a lot better.
- 1:07:08Speaker 3: I don't know, but obviously it seems like that line
- 1:07:10Speaker 3: has moved too dramatically, like both games in Phoenix, and
- 1:07:14Speaker 3: you're telling me you're gonna move the line eight points in,
- 1:07:19Speaker 3: you know, over a course of a few weeks for
- 1:07:20Speaker 3: what reason? That makes no sense to me. So I
- 1:07:25Speaker 3: think I actually probably lean Phoenix here, even though I
- 1:07:27Speaker 3: wouldn't really want them in the return home spot. I
- 1:07:30Speaker 3: think there are more factors that would point towards Phoenix
- 1:07:34Speaker 3: taking the points there than towards laying it with Minnesota.
- 1:07:37Speaker 3: But again, there are too many significant factors going both ways,
- 1:07:41Speaker 3: so I don't want to deal with it. That's gonna
- 1:07:44Speaker 3: do it, man, That's the show for today. We'll be
- 1:07:47Speaker 3: back tomorrow. Hockey resumes tomorrow, and then basketball I think
- 1:07:52Speaker 3: not until real basketball men's basketball NBA, not until Thursday.
- 1:07:57Speaker 3: I think. Thanks for hanging out, everybody. The one place,
- 1:08:00Speaker 3: even though I feel like I might be forcing it
- 1:08:02Speaker 3: is the Cincinnati Reds run line. I mean, it's Chase
- 1:08:05Speaker 3: Burns against the bullpen games. So hopefully we can get
- 1:08:09Speaker 3: that one done let's do it another Chase Burns play.
- 1:08:14Speaker 3: I know, but let's get back on track with a
- 1:08:15Speaker 3: win here. Man, we were on a massive, massive hot streak.
- 1:08:19Speaker 3: I wanna, you know, start getting some wins again here.
- 1:08:23Speaker 3: Let's try to do it today. That's gonna do it.
- 1:08:24Speaker 3: Learn a toe on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram,
- 1:08:28Speaker 3: like subscribe here, you know, spread the word, get people
- 1:08:31Speaker 3: to subscribe whatever. Let's get this thing taken off. Run
- 1:08:36Speaker 3: audio as well, Apple, Spotify, spreaker go check that out.
- 1:08:41Speaker 3: That helps me out as well. If you just listen
- 1:08:43Speaker 3: over there, covered in you because my YUK channel on
- 1:08:46Speaker 3: YouTube Ukulele covers patreon dot com, slash, learn to toe
- 1:08:50Speaker 3: and you can get some bonus Yuke stuff there. Loser
- 1:08:53Speaker 3: Cast will be back tomorrow night, and the Giants g
- 1:08:55Speaker 3: Spot podcast will be back at some point. That's gonna
- 1:08:58Speaker 3: do it. Thanks everybody, peace, but.
- 1:09:03Speaker 2: Don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
- 1:09:07Speaker 2: Your name, steal me something new, somebody for show. Put
- 1:09:11Speaker 2: the glass down, baby, look at me.
- 1:09:15Speaker 5: Now hold on, hold on nothing nice, now hold on,
- 1:09:29Speaker 5: hold on.
- 1:09:31Speaker 4: Let me pull.
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: That bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
- 1:09:43Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on.
- 1:09:47Speaker 3: And stay with me. Now