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Navigating the Triple Threat: Rates, Jobs, and Trade · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome to another episode of Spy Trader !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Barnaby Butterscotch , coming to you live at 6 am on Sunday , August 30th , 2026 , Pacific time .
• 0:13
  We get together every few hours to make sure you are ready for whatever the market throws your way , and boy , do we have a big week ahead of us .
• 0:21
  We are looking at a triple threat for the week of August 31st through September 4th .
• 0:27
  Even though the S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY ETF , is sitting within one point one percent of its alltime highs , we are heading into a very volatile stretch .
• 0:38
  We have a hawkish Federal Reserve , a huge jobs report coming Friday , and some growing trade tensions that might make your morning coffee taste a bit more expensive .
• 0:48
  Let's dive into the news .
• 0:50
  This past Friday , Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a keynote at Jackson Hole that has everyone a bit jittery .
• 0:57
  He is not happy with inflation being at three point four percent , and now there is a thirty to sixty percent chance we see a rate hike on September 16th .
• 1:07
  To make matters more complicated , the August Employment Report drops this Friday , September 4th .
• 1:14
  If the numbers are weak , we worry about a recession ; if they are too strong , that rate hike is almost certain .
• 1:22
  On top of that , gasoline is creeping toward four dollars a gallon because of the ongoing conflict with Iran , and we have a trade war starting with Canada on September 8th with fifty percent tariffs .
• 1:34
  This is already weighing on industrial stocks like those in the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLI .
• 1:42
  Looking at specific sectors , technology is still the engine of this market , but we are seeing some AI exhaustion .
• 1:50
  NVIDIA reported a massive ninetysix point two billion dollars in revenue , but investors are starting to wonder how long this spending can last .
• 1:59
  In the world of financials , banks in the XLF ETF have been doing well thanks to high interest rates , but the trade friction with Canada is starting to hurt institutions that do a lot of business across the border .
• 2:11
  We have some huge earnings calls this week too .
• 2:14
  On Tuesday , we have Dell and Palo Alto Networks .
• 2:19
  Palo Alto , ticker PANW , is a big one to watch for cybersecurity demand .
• 2:25
  On Wednesday , Broadcom and Snowflake report .
• 2:28
  Broadcom , ticker AVGO , is in the spotlight because Alphabet is reportedly looking for other chip suppliers .
• 2:36
  Then on Thursday , Lululemon gives us a look at how the highend consumer is holding up .
• 2:41
  Also , keep an eye on Apple .
• 2:45
  John Ternus officially takes the CEO seat on September 1st , and everyone is waiting for the September 9th event where we might see a foldable iPhone !
• 2:53
  So , what should we do with our money this week ?
• 2:56
  First , I recommend a cautious core position .
• 3:00
  Use the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , ticker VOO .
• 3:05
  It gives you that great exposure to the big tech companies but with a lower expense ratio than SPY , which is helpful while we wait out this seasonal weakness .
• 3:14
  Second , I like a play on cybersecurity .
• 3:17
  Palo Alto Networks , or PANW , is a great pick because their platform strategy is winning market share , and cybersecurity is something companies just cannot cut from their budgets .
• 3:29
  If the market dips because of the Fed , keep an eye on Broadcom , ticker AVGO .
• 3:34
  Even with the Google news , their work in custom AI chips and their integration with VMware gives them a huge advantage .
• 3:43
  Finally , if you want to play it safe while rates are high and the Fed is being tough , look at shortterm bonds .
• 3:49
  The Vanguard ShortTerm Bond ETF , ticker BSV , or the iShares Premium Money Market ETF , ticker CMR , are great places to park your cash and earn some interest with very little risk while we wait for the Fed's next move on September 16th .
• 4:05
  That is all for this update !
• 4:07
  Stay frosty out there , and I will see you in a few hours for our next market checkin .