Latest / International Business with Fexingo: Global Trade, Cross-Border Deals, and Multinational Operations / How the Yen Carry Trade Is Unraveling in Mid-2026
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- Lucas: Luna, the Japanese yen hit 161 to the dollar this week — its weakest level since 1990. And that number is flashing a warning that goes way beyond Japan. Luna: Because that yen weakness isn't just about Japanese exports. It's the foundation of one of the biggest trades in global markets — the yen carry trade. Lucas: Exactly. For years, investors have been borrowing yen at near-zero rates, converting it into dollars or other currencies, and buying higher-yielding assets — emerging market bonds, U.S. tech stocks, even crypto. As long as the yen stayed weak, the trade printed money. Lucas: If these conversations have helped you think more clearly about global risk, we'd be grateful if you'd consider supporting the show. Listener funding is what keeps Fexingo Business ad-free. You can find us at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo — no pressure, but it does help us keep the episodes coming. Luna: Yeah, and we mean that — it's a small way to keep the conversation going. But back to the yen — the Bank of Japan has been the outlier central bank, keeping rates negative while everyone else hikes. That gap is what makes the carry trade work. Lucas: Right. And there are signs the BOJ is finally ready to shift. In June, they signaled they might raise rates at the July meeting — just a small move, maybe 10 or 15 basis points. But the market is suddenly pricing in the end of the free-money era in Japan. Luna: So the carry trade starts to reverse. You borrow yen, you buy Brazilian reais or Mexican pesos. But if the yen strengthens even a little, your funding cost goes up and your currency gains disappear. Lucas: And that's exactly what we started seeing this week. Look at the emerging market ETFs — EEM, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, is down almost 2 percent in the last five days. FXI, the China large-cap ETF, is down nearly 4 percent. EWY, South Korea, also down almost 4 percent. Luna: Those are big moves for a week. And they correlate with the yen strengthening — or at least stopping its decline. The yen actually firmed a bit on Wednesday after the BOJ comments. Lucas: Right. The dollar-yen rate went from 161.4 to around 159 in two days. That's a 1.5 percent move in the yen — doesn't sound huge, but for leveraged carry trades, that's margin-call territory. Luna: And the trade isn't just hedge funds. Japanese retail investors — the so-called Mrs. Watanabe crowd — have trillions of yen in foreign bonds and currencies. They've been doing this for decades. Lucas: That's the scary part. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the total notional value of yen-funded carry trades is somewhere around four trillion dollars. That's a lot of leveraged positions that could unwind quickly. Luna: And when they do unwind, the yen strengthens further, which forces more unwinding. It's a feedback loop. Lucas: Classic short squeeze on a currency. The last time we saw a real yen carry trade unwind was in 2007–2008, right before the global financial crisis. In 1998, the carry trade blew up after Russia defaulted and LTCM collapsed. It's not a trivial risk. Luna: So who gets hurt first? Which markets are most exposed? Lucas: Emerging markets with high current account deficits — places like Turkey, South Africa, Argentina, even India to some extent. But also countries where Japanese investors have big positions. Mexico is a big one — Japanese investors hold a lot of Mexican government bonds. Luna: The Mexican peso has been one of the best-performing currencies this year. But this week, the iShares Mexico ETF, EWW, is down almost 5 percent in five days. That's a big drop. Lucas: It is. And it's not just Mexico. Taiwan's stock market has been resilient, but the Taiwan ETF, EWT, is down slightly. South Korea's market had been surging — up huge in 2026 — but EWY is dropping fast. Luna: South Korea is interesting because it's a developed market, but it's highly sensitive to global capital flows. And Korean won has been under pressure too. Lucas: Right. The won-yen cross is a key signal. If the yen strengthens against the won, that hurts Korean exporters like Samsung and Hyundai because they compete with Japanese firms. But the bigger issue is funding — Korean banks borrow in yen to lend in won. If the yen rises, their funding costs spike. Luna: It's a hidden leverage point. And I think the takeaway for listeners is: when the world's cheapest source of funding starts to get more expensive, a lot of trades that looked smart suddenly stop working. Lucas: Exactly. The question is whether the BOJ actually follows through. If they raise rates by just 10 basis points in July, the carry trade doesn't disappear overnight. But the trend shifts. And markets that have been riding the yen-funded wave — emerging market bonds, certain tech stocks, even some commodity trades — they're going to have to adjust. Luna: Are there any hedges investors can use? Lucas: The simplest is just being long the yen — or short the dollar-yen pair. But that's crowded now. Another approach is to reduce exposure to high-yield EM currencies that are heavily funded by yen. So, maybe underweight Mexican peso, South African rand, Turkish lira. Or buy options on those currencies. Luna: And for equity investors? Lucas: Companies with significant yen-denominated debt are at risk — especially in emerging Asia. But also Japanese exporters could benefit if the yen stabilizes at weaker levels, because their earnings get a boost. It's complicated. Luna: It's one of those situations where the macro driver — central bank policy — creates winners and losers across asset classes. Not a simple story. Lucas: No. And that's why we're watching it closely. The yen carry trade has been a silent engine for global risk appetite for years. If it truly starts to unwind, the effects will show up in corners of the market people aren't even thinking about. Luna: Like what? Lucas: Like U.S. Treasuries. Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt. If they need to repatriate funds to cover yen losses, they might sell Treasuries. That could push yields higher, which would ripple through mortgages, corporate bonds, everything. Luna: So the carry trade unwind doesn't just hit emerging markets. It hits the safest asset in the world. Lucas: Exactly. And that's the kind of systemic risk that keeps macro traders up at night. Luna: Alright, we'll be tracking the yen and the BOJ closely. Thanks Lucas. Lucas: Thanks Luna. That's our show for today. We'll be back tomorrow.