Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Rate Cut Countdown📉Crypto Market Update

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Fed Rate Cut Countdown📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today, let's break down the FOMC countdown because this week
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: could be huge for the markets, and of course it
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: all centers around one thing, that's Iran. We'll break it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: down for you guys. Before we get started, I want
• 0:11
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Let's go into it today. There's a lot happening. Of course,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: it is now FOMC week and you've got Kevin Warsh
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: at the helm. Now this is going to be different
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: because as Mohammad was talking about this earlier, he said,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: being in that meeting is going to be interesting because
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: you've got a pass chair, you've got what could be
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: dissenting governors, and you have a new guy coming in
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: that people would say is the mouthpiece for Trump. So
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the real question is is how does he play the
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: market If you just look at where some people think
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: this will go. Consider this of how and what the
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: market has done post these FED chairs. So when Jerome
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Powell became the new FED chair in twenty eighteen, the
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: spy crashed five or almost four. Kevin Wars the new
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: FED chair on May fifteenth. Now, and the real question
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: is does history repeat itself? Do we see an average
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: MAX draw down under the new FED chair? I don't know.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I'm interested because there are so many factors playing into
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: not only this week, but just in general, of how
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the market is responding to the Iranian deal, what's happening
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: with the S and P five hundred, obviously with SpaceX IPO,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: what's going on in the risk markets, and you have
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: of course inflation and fuel prices all centered around this.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: So data is going to be a big, big factor
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: going into his decision. Markets bet the Fed will hike,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and of course this is looking at over time when
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: you consider this though on the near term, right now
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: it is pretty much a flat line and whether or
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: not we're going to even get any hikes right now,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: currently zero basis points is the winner on polymarket does
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: not look like we're going to see that. And if
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: you look at the rate hike probability right now, going
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: all the way into December. That is also falling now
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: down below forty percent, holding it thirty six right now,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: down from a considerable high too. That was at sixty
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: one percent on June seventh, So just what ten days
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: ago we were at that kind of scenario. This is
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: all of course starting to lay into the market. Bitcoin
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: trading around sixty sixty sixty seven. We've got SpaceX absolutely
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: just going berserk like a rocket literally on the charts,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: and you've got this coming in which is going to
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: be the FOE meeting. And remember since September, we've had
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: six FMC decisions. After every single one of them, bitcoined
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: up ten percent within days. Doesn't mean it held it there,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: but those are the usually what we have seen in
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: terms of reaction in the market. Bitcoin moves. You know
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: what happens to do all coins. I want to go
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: to a clip real quick, and this will get into
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: what to watch for. This is Andre Sick breaking it down.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: First, pay attention to Kevin Worsh's language around inflation. If
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: he says the word transitory or anything like it, that
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: means he's suggesting that inflation from the Iran war is
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: temporary and it'll go away on its own, And that
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: would be what's called a dovish signal. Right, the markets
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: will like that and they'll most likely go up. If
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: he sounds concerned about inflation being persistent, then that's hawkish.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Markets will not like that. They will most likely go down.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Second thing to look out for is watch whether he
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: mentions the bond market specifically, if he says stress in
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: the treasury market or hints that the Fed has tools
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: to support the bond market, that's him signaling to us
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: that the money printer is warming up. A QE will
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: happen if it needs to happen. If he says that
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: or some version of that, then gold and bitcoin will
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: go up almost right away.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So when you listen to Andre there and he is right,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, what he's dealing with here is kind of
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: a rock in a hard place. And to this point
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: right here, global bond yields are crashing. You've got the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: US ten year dropping four six a to four four two.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: This is the last thirty days. That's that is a
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: large drop for a bond move, and then the twenty
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: year also falling from five point two down to four
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: point nine, so Japan is even moving harder. So remember
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the Japanese ten yere is yield is down eight point
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: nine percent in twenty seven days. The twenty year has
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: dropped nine point five percent. So these are all very
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: significant because he is right. When bond yields fall, it
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: means bond prices are raising, which is money is flowing
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: into bonds across both US and the Japanese market. At
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: the same time, if you look at lower long term yields,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: it's going to reduce borrowing costs for governments. And the
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: real question is where is interest rates going to fall.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: In this next clip, Jick looks at Walsh's master plan
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: because there's a lot playing into this right now, and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: back to his point. If it's transitory, yes, part time,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: no worry about inflation. If it's something they think is
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: going to be sticking around longer, that is more damage
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: to the market for sure, especially because what we have
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: seen in the S and P five hundred, which is
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: no slowdown in terms of overall market value. Take a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: look at Andre's next clip.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: Specifically, the plan is to remove the capital requirements that
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: limit how many treasury bonds banks are allowed to hold now.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: When COVID hit in twenty twenty, for example, FED temporarily
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: exempted treasuries from the SLR calculation for about a year,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: and then exactly what lu Groman predicted happened. Banks instantly
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: piled their money into treasuries and the bond markets started
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: to function very smoothly. But then when the exemption ended
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: and expired in March twenty twenty one, banks had to
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: lower their treasury holdings and the bond markets did not
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: like that. So Kevin Worsh's plan is essentially to make
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: that COVID exemption permanent. And that's because there's really only
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: two paths forward. Path one, he signals that looser policy
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: is coming. Maybe he says the FED will step in
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: to support the bond market if things get worse. If
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: he says that, the markets will read that as liquidity
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: incoming aka money printer will be turned on. And historically
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: when that happens, gold goes up, stocks go up, bitcoin
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: goes up. Risk assets in general all go up, but
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: only if the Iran situation resolves soon, because without that,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: all we have is higher and higher gas prices aka
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: higher inflation. And that makes it really hard for him
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: to say he's going to lower rates.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think to his point is that Walsh
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: is walking a very razor thin line here, mainly because
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: the data that typically the FED is dealing with usually
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: comes in prior. To remember, FOMC is happening tomorrow on Wednesday,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: but yet on Friday, we look like we're getting an
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Iranian deal and you have a lot of people in
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: the mix right now. And the reason this is important.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Does Trump feed wash a little bit of data about
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: what this Iranian deal is going to look like that
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: would give him a little bit of a precursor to
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: making a decision here at this meeting that's happening literally today,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: or does he have to pause and hold that line
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: until there's a little bit more public positioning here from
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the White House. And of course, as he said, as
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Andre said, it does depend on Iran. This is probably
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the biggest deal I think, maybe in the history of
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: the United States because it has so much bearing in
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: terms of the US economy because it's so tied to energy.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: I want to go to this clip because this is
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: a former Trump advisor saying, maybe this deal may not
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: be so good. Take a look.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: I agree with that. So if it was good news,
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: it would have been leaked, we'd all know about it.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump would stay around to sign and pass out pens.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: The fact that he is getting out of town does
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: not bode well. Anyone with any shred of political sense
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: knows that, you know, politicians and cameras go hand in globe, right,
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: So if this was something good and going to be
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: you know, of global significance, donald Trump would be there.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: I think that this is going to be viewed very skeptically.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: I do not trust the Iranians.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: All right, So this is a this is a former
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: White House advisor, and and whether you believe him or not,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: I think the body language is kind of the thing
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: he's getting at is how do these people react me
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: in DC? And if we were getting a closer deal
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: to what's going on in Iran. I think he's right.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I think you'd have victory laps going around DC right now.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: This concerns me a little bit. Does that mean that
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: maybe the deal is continuing negotiation? And they kind of
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: give you a fluff answer on Friday? Remember all this
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: stuff always happens on Friday. We talk about it all
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: the time. It helps avoid these situations where we get
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: so much coverage on it, it kind of buries the lead,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: as they say, And I want to go further into
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: this because the question will be if it doesn't happen
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: on Friday, how long down the pipe are we going
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: to have to wait for normality.
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: Take a look, it was extremely challenging to get to
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: this ceasefire. Maintaining it is going to be even more challenging.
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: Let's say the ceasefire it works as planned on Friday,
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: it would be probably by the end of the year
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: you could even begin to talk about.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: A resumption to normality.
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: And the idea though, is you'd have that flush of
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: the sixty million barrels that are caught inside come out,
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: maybe sixty plus million barrels. And if you're drawing on
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: average six million barrels per day right now, that means
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: you would cover six days or ten days of inventory draws.
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: After that, you still have the other problem. So before
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: we can answer anything, you got to answer how do
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: you get the ships to want to go back into
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: the golf. We have not answered that problem yet, So
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: again I say it's a near term solution as you
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: flush it, but longer term you don't have a problem.
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: The markets are treating this very differently than the way
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: the physical markets are or the operators are treating it.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: The financial markets are saying this is a done deal.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: All right, So do you guys think that is the case?
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Is it a done deal? If you look at the
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: current markets of what's going on, you kind of say, well,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: maybe all of this is being masked by the spacexpo.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: If you look at where we are right now, three
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: hundred bill out of the US stock market today, that
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: of course is moving what might be into SpaceX. And
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I think this is continuing to be an issue right there.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: If you look at SpaceX up another ten percent today,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: overtaking Amazon to become the fifth largest company in the world. Guys,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: this is insane to see these kind of numbers. And
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the real question is how long does it hold. This
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: will correlate to the crypto market because if you look
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: at what's happening after hours on the weekends right now,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: hype of course source to all time high. This again
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: because of what's happening over on SpaceX side and what
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: we'll see on the Purp side. But if you look here,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: the driver on this seems to be SpaceX. NASAC closed
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: the after hours price discovery for the year's biggest IPO
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: has now been running on hyper liquid, So you've got
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: that PERP going on one point one billion in volume,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: and that climbed about twenty three percent. So the new
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: contract on the third biggest market out there in terms
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: of the entire platform, only Bitcoin and Eat. So big deal, guys.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: If it continues to trade like this, if you continue
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to see this kind of flexibility and volatility, and there
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: could be people starting to short this and getting into
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: that trade as well. Right there. SpaceX of course leapfrogging
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: over Microsoft holding the number four position right now. Well,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: I couldn't say just behind Apple. There's still about half
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: behind Apple. But remember this opened this week and it
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: was at less than two trillions, so it's almost gained
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: a trillion dollars in a week. If it tracks at
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: this level, it literally is on Apple's heels inside a month.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So let's see if this continues to hold into SpaceX.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: The US Department of Justice just did something that might
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: actually help it, and they declared Elon Musk's data centers
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: national security asset and blocked an environmental lawsuit against it.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: This basically green lights about everything Elon wants to do
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: when it comes to data centers, and imagine what this
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: is going to look like as he starts to move
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: into data centers through SpaceX in other words, in space
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: do we get regulatory alignment around that or is this
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: now protecting SpaceX from literally any kind of issues coming
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: out of DC in terms of investigations, compliancy, anything like that.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: If this opens up the pipeline here, we could see
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: an unlimited supply of availability for Elon moving forward. This
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: is another look right here in this if you kind
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: of compare this to previous IPOs. These are the five
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: most hyped IPOs over the last fifteen years. Every single
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: one of them collapsed after listening. Now the question is
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: how long did it take. Sure many of them were weeks,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: sometimes months, but Uber lost seventy percent of its IPO price,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Meta was down seventy seven percent from its peak, Robinhood
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: fell ninety two percent, Coinbase was ninety three and even
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Rivian fell ninety five percent. It's always priced on these
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: early trading frequencies. And remember this is a little bit
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: different because SpaceX has so much private equity and private
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: capital that's gone into this, which will take profits. They
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: will get out and exit. Liquidity I think is retail
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: at the bottom is when nobody wanted these stocks, and
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: that is when everybody started to make money on these things.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Robin Hood was up twenty two x from its low,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Meta was up forty five, Uber was seven. That's when
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: those millionaires were made that were retail millionaires. Because now
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: all that liquidity has been flushed out of the market
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: and it's an opportunity to buy it. So if you
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: are looking on the backside of that, let me know
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: what your price is for SpaceX. If you're thinking, I'm
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: going to get into SpaceX, but I'm going to wait
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: for all of this to settle down, just put your
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: price down in the comments. I shares is getting ready
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: to or I should say I shares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: which is BITTA is now launching tomorrow. Now this is
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: interesting because this begin to put a little pressure on
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: the darling of these kinds of assets, and that has
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: been stretch under micro strategy. This, of course setting in
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: under Blackrock. The question will be is which one would
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you buy if you were trying to go into these
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: preferred products out there, would you go into something like
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Blackrocks offering or would you continue down the pipe of
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: going with strategies offering with stretch or would you jump
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: over to bitmind and what they're doing. Let me know
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: what you guys think. I think this will outpace stretch.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: It may cause a little bit of a struggle for
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: stretch here in the future. I want to go to
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: this last clip because this is an interesting I won't
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: call it a debate, but it is a different perspective
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: of how markets will react and where bitcoin and crypto
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: will be, as well as where will gold be. This,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: of course is Peter Schiff and Anthony Anthony Papiano. Take
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: a look.
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: The government is backing bitcoin. The government is behind bitcoin.
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: The government is trying to misdirect resources into bitcoin. The
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: president's family, that's the family business. Now forget real estate,
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: they're all in crypto.
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: Well on a second here, the US government has been
• 16:10
  Speaker 6: back in gold for decades and decades. I don't hear
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: you complaining about that.
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: Second of all, the United States money in the United States.
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: Second of all is that the United States has frozen
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: Venezuelan's gold. They frozen Russia's gold. They've gone after China's.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Gold only if they have possession of it and again.
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: But you can't do that with an asset that cannot
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: be sense.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: What do you mean?
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: Look at all the bitcoin we've seized. How do you
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: think we have a bitcoin strategic reserve? It's all this
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: seized bitcoin. There was just some rumors I don't know
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: that we seized Iran's bitcoin or crow whatever they ad.
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: It's a lot harder to seize gold because if you
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: have your own gold in a vault, unless you're going
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: to send the military on the ground to get it,
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: gold is far.
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: Let me ask you this, over the next decade, do
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: you think that bitcoin or gold is going to outperform
• 16:53
  Speaker 6: each other? If you had to pick between gold and bitcoin,
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: which one do you think?
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: I don't even know if bitcoin is going to be
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: around another decade, you want to make a bet on it?
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: But what bitcoin's going to be around in a decade?
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: A book? Also, I got great, goet, I got that's
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: easy bet. If you think it's gonna go away, make
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: a little bet. Well, I can't. It's go to zero
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: maybe zero, Let's I don't know. I think I've heard
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: shifts say that bitcoin goes to zero before interesting. Maybe
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: he's re you know, considering his position interesting though dynamics,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: because I think right now you are dealing with a
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: new asset generation. And remember it is a different kind
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: of investor these days. They are looking at not only
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: treasuries differently, they're looking at risk markets differently, and they're
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: definitely looking at precious metals differently. So if you're one
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: of those, which one of you guys jumping into love
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts. If you like this video, like
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: our free private member group is in the description