Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Did Bitcoin OFFICIALLY Enter The Bear Market?! | EP 1429

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Did Bitcoin OFFICIALLY Enter The Bear Market?! | EP 1429 · Simply Bitcoin

0:02
Bitcoin is currently crashing and everyone's wondering, are we
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officially in a bear market? Well, it's not just Bitcoin
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crashing today. Literally trillions of dollars
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have been wiped out of every market this morning.
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Gold, silver, stocks, they're all crashing.
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We will cover all the macro in a moment, but first let's start
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with Bitcoin. Are we in a bear market?
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That's the real question. And I think it depends what
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you're looking at. It depends what you're pricing
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Bitcoin in that is probably making you feel concerned and
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scared. So let's start with probably
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what everyone's looking at, which is of course Bitcoin
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priced in dollars. So here we are the Bitcoin
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current Bitcoin price in dollars.
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It is what 84 seven. We had a red, you know, red
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morning. This is the monthly, this is the
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monthly. So I'll I'll put it on the daily
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for you guys. You can see we had I think it
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was like a 5% drop this morning. Yeah, about a 5% drop and
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everyone's freaking out now when I look at it in dollar terms,
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it's kind of doing what I said it was going to do where yes, we
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got this wholesale off, you know, huge liquidations.
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October 10th, November, I believe it was 16th or November
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6th. I, I'm, I keep messing those up
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and we've gone sideways since then.
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So in dollar terms, yes, we got a drop.
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Yes, we got a crash to 5% drop. I'm I literally tweeted the bane
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meme. You know, you guys, you, you
1:40
adopted the darkness. I was forged in the darkness.
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In dollar terms, you're like OK, it is what it is now.
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I have been seeing people call for 60-70 K drop.
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We do know the 50, what's it? 50 week moving average is around
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like 58 K gang. So maybe 58 K gang is going to
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have one more chance of glory. But in dollar terms, personally,
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in dollar terms, I'm like, OK, it's doing what I said it was
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going to do. It's it hit this bottom, it's
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going to go sideways. I'm not really panicked when it
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goes in dollar terms. This 5% drop literally means
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nothing to me. It's that's kind of how I'm
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looking at it. So in that sense, maybe we've
2:20
been in a bear market again, maybe 2025 was the bear market
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even though we all thought, hey, it was going to be a parabolic
2:27
bull run. But I think the real interesting
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aspect of this is if you're looking at Bitcoin price in
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gold, we've already been in a bear market for over a year.
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You can see here again at the start of 2025 price in gold, we
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are, we're in a bear market. We're literally back at prices
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of Bitcoin price in gold that we haven't seen since, you know,
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2017. We're we're we're hanging on by
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a thread at the 2017 top of Bitcoin priced in gold.
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So again, as I've been saying, Bitcoin priced in gold, it's
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definitely in a bear market, but this is where it does get a
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little interesting. Are we officially entering the
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bear market? If you're looking at it, if
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you're looking at Bitcoin priced in dollars, then you're probably
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like, yeah, we're we're entering the bear market.
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There's a lot more room to fall. But if you're looking at it
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priced in gold, which I think what is what we should be doing,
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you know, pricing Bitcoin in hard money, as we like to say,
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that would be Bitcoin price in gold.
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Now this is where it gets interesting.
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The average Bitcoin bear market price in gold is roughly 14
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months and we are on the 14th month right now.
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So who knows how much lower it can go priced in gold
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especially, which might be the more bearish case, especially if
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we see gold continue to run and Bitcoin keeps dropping.
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Bitcoin priced in gold could drop a little lower by the end
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of this month. We do.
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We got a couple of days left. OK, We got a couple of days
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left. Wouldn't, wouldn't be panicking
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in my opinion, if you're pricing Bitcoin in gold, I think we
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might have seen the worst, you know, be we, we can put the
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worst behind us, but again, got to keep that number in mind.
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Bitcoin price in gold. We've been in bear market for 14
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months. Historically the bear market
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price in gold is 14 months. So maybe that's the little dose
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of hope Ian for you guys today. Maybe it's not we are entering
4:28
in a bear market. Maybe we're exiting a bear
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market now. If that's the case, then now is
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a good time to be buying right now.
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I'm not going to tell you guys to buy this dip right now.
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I'm not going to tell you to go catch falling knives right now.
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I think right now it might be a good time to just kind of sit on
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your hands if you do have some Fiat.
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You know, I, I'd wait to see what happened with the price a
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little bit. Again, there's a lot of economic
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uncertainty. We really don't know why the
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price is dropping right now, to be completely blunt.
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And it's not just Bitcoin, it's every markets are crashing right
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now. I think the main consensus right
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now is because the Fed kind of paused on rates.
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I, I think there's just a lot of economic uncertainty.
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A lot of people don't know what to make of that.
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And This is why we're seeing gold reprice, silver reprice,
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equities or stocks getting absolutely naked.
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And this is where the fun goes. This is this is where it starts
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getting fun because it's not just a Bitcoin problem.
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And when you look at Bitcoin, a lot of times we do get hyper
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focused and we're like, ah, bitcoins crashing.
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It's over for us. It's like, no, this is literally
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market wide. So I know you guys love memes.
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So I'm going to start with a meme here.
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Shouts out the crypto for Ghani and he goes, we're so tired of
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winning, Mr. President, and this is the heat map.
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Literally everything is red today.
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OK, guys, everything is red. It's it's a bloodbath out there
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this morning. So what's the old saying?
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When there's blood on the streets, that's when you buy.
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Well, apparently right now all of us are bleeding.
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So everything's bleeding here. So you can't really make this
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out. That just being a Bitcoin
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problem. I think that kind of leads into
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the whole idea that Bitcoin is a macro asset.
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Right now. Bitcoin is responding to what's
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going on globally in geopolitics and in macroeconomics.
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So I think this is probably what we're seeing.
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And I do have a good clip from Jack Mahlers chats up the Jack
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Mahlers. He did a really good edit and I,
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I think it's going to sum up where we are right now.
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Play that in the numbers. Now going further, here we go.
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Bull theory on Twitter just goes mash the crash in the markets.
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Gold is down 8.2% and has wiped out nearly $3 trillion.
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Literally what, almost 2 Bitcoin market caps in an hour.
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Silver has dumped 12%, about 780 billion.
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S&P 500's fallen 1.23% again, another 78100 or 780 billion.
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NASDAQ crashed about 2 1/2%, wiped out 760 billion.
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Trillions erased across metals and equities in the last hour.
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So I'll go back here. Let's let's do a live update.
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We'll look at what's going on with gold currently.
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Here's the daily, you know, at least Bitcoin doesn't look this
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bad right now, though it did retrace a little bit.
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So I don't know if you guys watch gold this morning, but it
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did get close to 5600 this morning.
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It went up to, you know, 5600. It dumped to about $5000.
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Currently it's at 5300. So it it's retraced it it's it's
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recovered a little bit. Now let's go to silver because
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obviously the last couple of weeks, gold, silver has been on
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historic runs and silver did something very similar.
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It had a high of 121, which is again unprecedented.
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We've never seen this before. It had a low of one O 6.
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It's currently at 1:14. So yes, they had some pretty
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aggressive price movements, but they seem to have recovered.
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Now this is where I think it gets very interesting.
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And I was having this conversation with Luke this
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morning. It is this whole idea of like,
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where are we right now? Is precious metals?
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Is gold and silver telling us something about the Fiat system
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right now? Is this a debt crisis?
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Is this the debasement trade happening in real time?
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Is this showing us that the dollar is about to collapse or
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rather Fiat currencies are about to collapse?
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And this is where the conversation I think does get a
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a little more speculative, but also a little more interesting.
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My framing of this is like, are we watching hyperinflation
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happen in real time? Is this what we're seeing right
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now? Is the volatility that we're
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seeing in gold and silver right now just quintessential
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hyperinflation? You know, interchange daily
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moves, the volatility and price. And this is where I think a lot
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of people are kind of picking up on this kind of movement here.
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We got James Lavish and he goes Houston.
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We have a problem. Gold is traded to $5598 and back
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to 5097 dollars so far today. That is a roughly 10% move in
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just a few hours in gold. Gold's almost looking like a
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shit coin. You know, gold spot up 10%,
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sideways down 10%. Now, it's probably covered
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somewhere around this area. And this is where you start to
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ask yourself, we've seen this happen before, specifically
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about 100 years ago. And this is again where you
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start to ask yourself, is this hyperinflationary scenarios?
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Is this what we're happening? Is this what we're seeing happen
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in real time? And Luke Groman though, you
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know, Luke, Luke did kind of get super bearish on Bitcoin.
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A lot of people are saying is because he sold his Bitcoin.
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And so he's becoming a doomer on Bitcoin, but he's pulling up the
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why chart of gold priced in Weimar marks.
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And he got a 10% intraday move in gold, you say?
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And here's the historic chart that we've all seen black line
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gold price in Weimar marks. You can see going parabolic,
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which again does kind of look like what we've seen in gold
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here. Let me pull that up again.
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You know, gold, it's absolutely going parabolic now.
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Is this the start? Is this the end?
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No one really knows. That's where the speculation
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comes in. But you're looking at this and
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you're like maybe maybe we're at like a 1919 type.
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And though this isn't just one country hyperinflating, which is
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more of the scary scenario. This is a global
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hyperinflationary scenario. Basically all Fiat currencies
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hyperinflating against gold again.
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So black line is the price of gold in Weimar Marks, and the
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red line is the percentage change, which is what Luke Roman
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is really referencing. It's like, OK, 10% volatility
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intraday. This is the red line basically
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going crazy. And if you're looking at this
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chart, you know, now 0 to 80 percent, 80% would be roughly
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what 1921 ish 1922. So if we're kind of looking at
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this chart again, we're speculating, you know, we're,
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we're literally just making guesses.
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This, this could get way more crazy than we even believe if
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this is where we are. And so maybe 19181919, maybe
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that's where we are currently. Obviously none of us really
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knows, but I do like this tweet from our boy Luke.
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Luke did a pretty good tweet on here and he's a little, I would
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say probably more bearish than I am.
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I was telling him maybe it's 1918, maybe, maybe 1919 if we're
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trying to look at historical representations of where we are.
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Here's Luke's take on it. He says we are officially in the
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melt up phase. Buckle in now, are we in the
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melt up phase or this the beginning of the melt up phase?
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He says officially in it. To me it feels like we're in the
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beginning of it. But his take is 2025 is 1922.
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The price of gold in U.S. dollars is following what the
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price of gold priced in German marks did during the 1923
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hyperinflation. The only difference is we're
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operating on a 6X lag, meaning the 1922 to 1923 parabolic melt
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up will unfold between 2025 and 2031.
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Do you have some Bitcoin? So I want to go back here.
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Personally, if I'm looking at the intraday volatility here, I
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would say that we are closer to 1918.
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If we are seeing a global hype hyperinflationary scenario on
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Fiat currencies, which it does seem to be the case.
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I think this is what gold running, this is what silver's
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running has been telling us. The fact that central banks now
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are literally holding more gold than their own debt when
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Treasuries have been usually the least risky thing to hold.
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I think it's telling you a lot about people's confidence in
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paper money. We're starting to see paper
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money is maybe, you know, I don't want to say on its
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deathbed. I don't really believe in the
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dollar collapse theory. I think it was going to be
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actually my given was it was going to take a while now with
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what we saw gold do in the last couple of months, what we saw
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silver do, maybe we are in an acceleration phase.
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Maybe that's where we currently are.
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But if I'm looking at this again, history doesn't repeat,
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but it often does rhyme. Personally, we're probably in
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this 1918. That's kind of my view here,
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which means that gold silver can run even higher.
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Obviously now we have Bitcoin as a new technology and I think
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that is going to sorry guys, I'm I'm fighting another cold today.
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I don't know what's going on. So I'm I'm struggling a little
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bit here, but I think we could see gold silver run higher for
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longer. We can see obviously Bitcoin
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eventually catch up to that, but it is, it is pretty intense
14:27
timing right now. It is it's, it's I think one of
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the most interesting times to be in the market right now that I
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think there's a lot of money to be made out there.
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And right now if you're looking at the Bitcoin price again, I
14:40
don't want to tell you to catch knives right now.
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I don't want to tell you to buy all the dips currently because
14:50
we could be seeing a dip more, but right now is a good time to
14:53
stack some dollars, maybe sit on your hands, deploy this once we
14:57
know what what is actually going on, once this uncertainty kind
15:00
of fades in the markets. Because again, if you're just
15:04
looking at the Bitcoin price, especially now that Bitcoin is a
15:08
macro asset, I think you're missing a lot of the
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information. For a long time you could just
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look at the Bitcoin price and you didn't really have to factor
15:17
in anything going on in the macro.
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But now I think that's changed. Bitcoins growing up, Bitcoins in
15:23
the conversation. Bitcoin is in the big boys table
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now. Yes, maybe we're at the very end
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of the big boys table, but we are now a part of the macro
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conversation. So we can't ignore what's going
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on in macroeconomics and geopolitics.
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It's grown up. The very people that are
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completely involved and driving the macro cycle are now
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tentatively getting into Bitcoin.
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So This is why I think we have to pay attention to what's going
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on with macro. And Jack Mahler's in in a
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minute. I'm going to play a clip of his.
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He I think perfectly sums this up.
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So when you're looking at Bitcoin right now, we do have to
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look at a broader factors, a broader market here, which is
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what goes on in gold, silver, equities, bonds, because that
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those are the macro assets. And as we see, every market has
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melted down today. Now we don't really know what
16:16
the reason is. Obviously everyone likes to
16:18
pinpoint a specific reason why the markets are melting down.
16:22
You could say that is potentially the fact that the
16:25
Fed didn't cut rates. I don't know.
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Trump did a tweet literally this morning, probably right before
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all of this action happened, you know, again, saying bad stuff
16:35
about too late, Powell saying he needs to cut interest rates, we
16:38
need to have lower interest rates.
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And could that have been the cascading, you know, initial
16:44
domino to fall to make all of the markets meltdown?
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The timing is kind of correlated.
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He did tweet this, or rather truth posted this this morning
16:54
at like 7:54 AM right before the markets open.
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We're seeing market turmoil today.
17:00
So this isn't just a Bitcoin problem.
17:02
This is a all markets problem, which is where it gets a little
17:06
more interesting because apparently we are going to see
17:10
an emergency meeting from Trump. I first saw this on Twitter.
17:16
I did, you know, dive in a little deeper.
17:18
We are going to get a Trump announcement later on today.
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The rumor is it will be about economics.
17:27
So is Trump going to go out there and talk about the new Fed
17:31
chair proposal? Are we going to, are we going to
17:34
learn today who the new Fed chair is going to be so that
17:37
that now the markets are feeling a less, little less stressed out
17:41
because now we can plan for the future.
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But I do like the tweet here. I would expect more wild
17:47
volatility in the markets. And just, if you think this is
17:50
fake news, I did go over here to rollcall.com.
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I, I look for this official announcement on the
17:57
whitehouse.gov. I couldn't find it.
17:59
Here is Trump's schedule for today.
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He's in a meeting right now. And then later at 4:30 PMI
18:09
believe Eastern Time, the president will be making an
18:13
announcement. And again, the kind of the
18:16
rumor, or rather what we've been told on the back end, what it's
18:20
going to be, it is going to be an economic announcement.
18:23
So a lot of people were talking about yesterday that what Trump
18:27
could do to really kind of deflate Powell's moment is him
18:31
announcing very quickly who the next Fed chair will be.
18:35
Obviously, Jerome Powell still has about until April to
18:39
maintain his position to not cut any more rates.
18:44
But we might be hearing later today who the Fed chair is or if
18:48
we hear something else that's going to be even more
18:51
interesting. That's going to be, I think,
18:53
more injection of volatility in the markets right now.
18:56
So, again, is Bitcoin officially in a bear market?
19:00
I think it really depends what you're pricing it in.
19:03
In gold, we've been in one for over a year.
19:05
We could be at the very end of a bear market.
19:08
If you're pricing in Bitcoin, it's a 5% drop.
19:11
We are still going sideways as of the moment.
19:14
You could argue again, we've been in the bear market since
19:17
2025. We're at the very least since
19:19
the end of last year. So personally, the charts look
19:25
ugly. Full Full disclosure, I just
19:28
showed them to you. I'm looking at them.
19:30
The charts look ugly. Everyone's freaking out about
19:33
what's going on right now. Every market right now is having
19:37
turmoil. Every market is selling down.
19:40
But I think 2026, we are still going to see some fireworks,
19:45
which I have been saying on the show for the, I guess since the
19:49
beginning of the year that we could potentially see a huge
19:54
drawdown in Bitcoin, not necessarily a bear market, but
19:58
we could get down lower. But I still think by the end of
20:01
the year we will be a lot higher.
20:02
Hence why I'm saying right now, look, I have no Fiat left.
20:06
I, I'm, I have no more money to buy dips.
20:09
So I'm with you guys in the chat at this point.
20:12
We bought in every dip. And it just kept dipping.
20:15
So I would venture to say that probably the best thing to do is
20:18
obviously, as we always say, you just DCA weekly, monthly,
20:23
whatever works for you. Daily, you know, by a dollar,
20:26
$2.00 a day, $21.00 a day, whatever, whatever works for
20:29
you. You just DCA, you accumulate.
20:32
You don't care about the price. Take that in the cold storage.
20:36
That's obviously one of the tried and true strategies.
20:40
The other strategy, which is more of a lump sum strategy is
20:45
don't catch the falling knives. Wait till you see a good buying
20:50
opportunity. Buy a bunch of Bitcoin with a
20:53
chunk of dollars. And that's usually, I think when
20:56
you look at the data, I think lump sum buying is probably a
20:59
little more profitable than DCA ING.
21:02
But some of us don't have the discipline to lump sum buy,
21:06
which is me. If I have dollars, I'm either
21:09
burning through them or I'm buying Bitcoin.
21:11
I'm either capitulating my dollars as quickly as possible
21:14
into Bitcoin or, you know, I buy a good steak and some whiskey.
21:18
That's just how I work. OK.
21:20
So interesting times to say the least.
21:23
Actually, maybe I get a little pulse reading.
21:26
Don't buy gold. It goes up in price.
21:28
Yeah, let's see, this is the chop to all time high Q2 2026
21:33
bull market. Yeah, I do have no more money.
21:36
Dude, I'm broke. I am broke.
21:39
Ramfi. I ran out of money to buy dips
21:41
in 2018. Chad.
21:44
Chad, people are saying price suppression.
21:46
This is a super cycle. Like this is what we were born
21:51
for. OK, Opti, are you broke?
21:54
Yeah, dude, I'm totally broke. I'm Fiat broke.
22:00
OK, I'm Fiat broke. All right?
22:02
I, I need to pay bills. Actually, it's the end of the
22:04
month, you know, instead of the month I need to pay bills.
22:11
You guys are, you guys are funny.
22:13
So yeah, dude, guys, it is interesting times, like
22:18
unprecedented times, I would say.
22:21
So we're seeing precious metals run.
22:24
I don't think this completely invalidates Bitcoin running as
22:28
well. And on that note, I am going to
22:32
move into the Jack Mahler's clip because it really ties into
22:36
where we are right now. And I don't know if you guys saw
22:38
my Twitter. I, like I said it, this is what
22:41
we were born for. You know, we were molded in the
22:43
darkness. I, I, I was created in the 2018
22:48
bear market. That's where I was forged,
22:50
that's where my huddle, that's where my Bitcoin Zen, that's
22:54
where my Bitcoin maxiness was created in the 2018 bear market.
22:58
So at at a certain point, I'm kind of OK with volatility.
23:03
The sideways action was killing me.
23:06
I need volatility in my life, whether that's down and I'm on
23:09
the roller coaster ride and I'm dropping or we are up now.
23:13
I think this year we're going to see both considering all the,
23:17
you know, craziness we're watching in the world.
23:20
So I'm going to move into the numbers.
23:23
I have a good Jack Mahler's clip.
23:24
He just dropped this. I think it's great timing for
23:27
what we are watching right now for what I just covered.
23:30
And then in the news we we got some updates coming out of
23:36
portion of the Clarity Act. I guess you could say this is
23:39
some bullish stuff, but seemingly every time we get some
23:43
bullish news coming out, Bitcoin keeps dropping.
23:45
So maybe we need some negative news right now.
23:47
And then in the numbers. I didn't get a chance to really
23:50
digest everything that Jay Powell said yesterday, but he
23:54
did make some very interesting comments after I stopped the
23:58
show, which I do want to cover on today's show.
24:01
So first ad break, I will be right back back and we're going
24:04
to play. I, I, I guess I could say a
24:05
motivational Jack Muller's clip to, you know, not necessarily
24:09
give you opium, but maybe kind of give you a framework of where
24:15
we currently are in the in the market.
24:16
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Oh, Chad, you guys are funny. Like guys, there's no risk of me
26:36
living under the freeway. OK, my fun pretty good.
26:41
All right. Anyways, the current Bitcoin
26:43
price is 84,000 and $60.00 which is a 33.1% discount from all
26:52
time high. Looks like we could not hold on
26:54
to the $1.8 trillion market cap. We are currently at $1.69
26:58
trillion market cap and the current block height is 934,244.
27:06
Now at times like this, you got to reframe your thing.
27:13
You know every bear market here before, before I play this,
27:16
every bear market is really where the true soldiers are
27:21
tested. It's really where you remind
27:24
yourself where we are, what we're doing, what the point of
27:28
all of this is. And I'm not, I'm not saying we
27:32
necessarily are in a bear market, but we're getting Jack
27:35
Mueller's posting like we are in a bear market.
27:38
And this is a really good clip. I think it sums up what we are
27:41
seeing in all the markets in Bitcoin right now.
27:44
It really redirects our North Star, our, you know, our compass
27:49
here of what is going on, what should we be watching for and
27:54
what is happening in gold and silver.
27:55
So I'm going to play this real quick.
27:57
I think this is going to get you guys, you know, if you need a
27:59
little bit of opium today because the the first part was a
28:02
little dimorish. Besides the fact that maybe
28:04
we're getting out of a bear their market here is your opium.
28:07
This is why you huddle. This is why you're going to make
28:10
it. Really good clip.
28:11
I'll be right back. People have come and said I need
28:15
Bitcoin to be faster, I need Bitcoin to do this.
28:17
I need Bitcoin to go up. I need Bitcoin to stop crashing
28:20
Bitcoin doesn't give a about you.
28:22
You're welcome to ride bitcoins ride but bitcoins going on its
28:26
own time at its own pace, and you're either OK with that or
28:29
you're wrecked. So where are we today?
28:32
Bitcoin is not competing with sovereign paper.
28:36
It's not competing with U.S. Treasuries.
28:39
It's not competing in that market right now.
28:41
It's just not, it's not big enough.
28:45
It we're getting there. We got the ETFs, we're growing.
28:49
Well, there's a literal strategic reserve from the
28:52
United States of America. We could pass the Bitcoin act
28:55
and be on our way to owning a million bitcoins as a country.
28:57
We are getting there. You're talking to the guy that
29:00
helped the first country adopt Bitcoin in El Salvador.
29:04
I thought I was going to die at one point.
29:06
Like we're we're working on it, but we're not there.
29:09
I would say gold is competing with sovereign paper.
29:11
Gold is competing with treasuries.
29:13
Gold for that reason, front runs liquidity.
29:16
Bitcoin right now, today is competing with risk assets,
29:21
Bitcoins competing with equities and growth.
29:24
Bitcoin doesn't front run liquidity, it responds to actual
29:29
liquidity. That's why gold leads.
29:32
Gold anticipates the liquidity. Bitcoin responds to the
29:35
liquidity, Bitcoin sells off when markets get tight, and
29:40
Bitcoin rips your face off when they print the money.
29:44
That's just where we are today. I'm cool with that.
29:48
I've been in this game for a long time.
29:50
I know Bitcoin. I know it well.
29:52
If you can't be here for these times, then you don't get the
29:57
gains. Let's go.
30:02
Hey, first of all, dude, I I want to know edits those the
30:05
edits are great. Shouts out to Jack Molly's
30:08
editors. Those are good.
30:11
I think the reason I want to play that it's obviously it was
30:15
a little motivational. Maybe maybe you need a little
30:18
more motivation this morning. Maybe you're you're worn out.
30:21
You know, I think everyone right now is the I'm tired boss meme
30:25
right now. We've we expected a lot more.
30:29
And the beginning of that clip is like perfect framing.
30:33
Bitcoin does what it does on its own time.
30:36
We're just riding, we're just riding the wave here, you know,
30:39
so that's where you really want to kind of enhance your Bitcoin
30:45
Zen. It's where you just be like, hey
30:47
man, I'm a bitcoiner. I'm going to stack Bitcoin.
30:50
I'm going to accumulate. I'm going to make sure I have
30:53
some money to buy Bitcoin. I'd rather I'm going to make
30:55
sure I'm making more money so I can buy some Bitcoin.
30:58
Continue to do this. We're going to be doing this for
31:01
a long time. But the real signal, I think,
31:03
was at the very end of that where as we all know, gold is
31:09
hard money. It's basically the gram.
31:10
It's the unk in the room. You know, Bitcoin's still the
31:13
baby here. But we are essentially playing
31:16
the same game, though maybe we are in different races.
31:18
And I love the framing of Bitcoin or sorry, gold responds
31:23
to the idea of liquidity. It front runs liquidity, which I
31:28
think in the current moment is exactly what we're seeing.
31:31
Gold, silver going up. Yes, central banks are acquiring
31:34
it, but it's really because everyone has this concern about
31:39
shifting from QT to QE. We're all wondering what's going
31:42
to go on with interest rates. We're all seeing the dollar
31:46
Dixie go down, the dollar strength go down.
31:49
We're all kind of preparing for the money printer to go on.
31:52
I've been saying for a while the money printer hasn't turned on
31:55
yet. It is just starting to warm up.
31:57
We're just starting to lay the foundation this that that is
32:00
what's going to happen. So again, gold is front running
32:04
the liquidity, hence what we're seeing.
32:07
And I think as we've seen the last couple of weeks that gold
32:11
is essentially, I think people calling the bluff of Fiat
32:15
currency. They're calling the bluff that
32:17
we know they're going to continue to print.
32:20
But the added framing there of Bitcoin responds to actual
32:24
liquidity in the system. We're still waiting for that.
32:28
And maybe that's why Bitcoin has been in a coma for the last year
32:31
or so. Yes, there's been a lot of semi
32:34
good news. Actually last year's probably
32:36
the most bullish news cycle on Bitcoin.
32:38
But did we actually get liquidity?
32:39
Not really. We got a lot of rumors that it
32:42
was going to happen. We got a lot of conversations
32:45
that they were, you know, kind of changing their tune.
32:48
And therefore, halfway through the year, you know, gold started
32:52
ripping because of this idea of front front running, front
32:57
running, front running, liquidity, Han Twi, gold
33:00
running, Han Twi gold, silver, doing their thing.
33:03
Really all commodities are running today, which is well,
33:06
maybe not today, but have been running, you know, gold, silver,
33:12
platinum, Palladium, copper, all the commodities are running
33:16
front, running the liquidity. Now we're just waiting for the
33:19
money printers to turn on. And I think as we've been seeing
33:23
in the price movements, market cap movements of gold, literally
33:29
gold's losing multiples of the Bitcoin market cap in an hour.
33:34
We've seen gold add multiple Bitcoin market caps over a span
33:39
of a couple of weeks. I think once the liquidity gets
33:43
turned on, we might be seeing multiples of the Bitcoin market
33:50
cap in weeks as well. Maybe the classic Bitcoin pumps
33:54
in 1012 Days of Me might come back on the table and we just
33:57
completely forgot that that's the case.
34:00
I know the diminishing returns meme has really caught in
34:03
people's minds saying ah, bitcoins too big it it can't
34:07
move like that. Gold and silver completely blew
34:09
that narrative out of the water. I actually saw a good meme
34:12
today, or rather was a tweet did something on lines of you guys
34:17
all wanted the four year cycle to end and now you got it.
34:21
You guys all wanted the diminishing returns meme to end
34:24
and now you got it. Like what are you complaining
34:27
about? I'm I'm having a good time.
34:31
Yes, I know price isn't doing what I wanted to do, but the
34:36
more I have friends text me of like, yo, what's going on?
34:39
You know, selfies running around here with the with the new baby
34:44
again as the Penelope cruise in blow moment.
34:48
Like where are we going to live? Like this sucks.
34:50
She's texting us like what is going on?
34:52
This sucks and I'm just laughing.
34:55
I'm having a good time. This is fine, man.
34:58
We were forged in the darkness. This is what what we were meant
35:04
to do. You know, guys, you guys are
35:07
funny. Chad's funny.
35:09
Chad's funny. I'm not giggling, dude, because
35:12
I'm like, I don't know what's going on.
35:14
Like I said a minute ago, I think I'm getting another cold.
35:17
I don't know what to My sinuses are messed up.
35:20
I don't know if I feel like I got hit by a truck 'cause I was
35:23
at the gym yesterday or am I catching something again?
35:27
The weather's been so weird down here, guys.
35:29
It's like 80° on Monday now. It's like 5040° in the morning.
35:36
I'm still struggling with my environment down here.
35:38
So I'm cooked, guys. I'm, I'm cooked, OK?
35:42
I don't, I'm, I'm trying to just make it through the day.
35:45
OK, guys, I'm trying to make it through the day here today and
35:48
it doesn't make it better that the price is dumping.
35:50
I'd rather that all markets are melting down right now.
35:54
Who knows what's what we're going to see later today.
35:56
I I am actually, well, I was going to say I'm actually going
36:00
to watch the Trump announcement, but full, full transparency,
36:05
Full disclosure, I might be taking a nap during it today.
36:09
So we'll respond to what he said yesterday.
36:12
Hopefully something happens later.
36:15
Yeah, we're it's called winter off, dude.
36:18
There's no winter down here, all right?
36:19
Anyways, Anyways, dude, it's like a constant panic at that.
36:23
No, dude, I never, I literally never get sick.
36:27
It's something about South Florida that's I need to adjust.
36:33
I had an adjustment period when I was in Texas.
36:35
I'm I'm still in that adjustment period.
36:37
Anyways, enough of enough of me complaining, enough of my life,
36:40
my sickness, You guys don't care.
36:42
Going to the news, we're going to, we're going to get, I guess
36:44
a pun intended, a little clarity on the Clarity Act.
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39:22
Jeez, I'm getting trolling on Rumble.
39:23
I'm getting trolled on Rumble for like, hey guys, I love naps,
39:27
all right? Naps are great.
39:30
I can't believe we're hating on naps in the big year 226 or
39:34
2026. In the big year of 2026, we are
39:37
hating on naps. Naps are great.
39:39
I'm a boomer. OK, Anyways, here we go.
39:44
This was this morning. Eleanor Terrett again, highly
39:52
recommend you guys follow her. She's doing really good work.
39:55
Formerly at Fox Business. Now she is covering the crypto
39:59
markets again, crypto markets. She just tweeted this morning,
40:03
or rather right before we started the show happen,
40:06
happening. Now, the Senate AG Committee is
40:09
convening to mark up its portion of the Clarity Act with Chairman
40:12
John Boozman kicking off proceedings.
40:14
He says the markup is a culmination of months of
40:16
bipartisan work, and that while conversations were cordial and
40:19
substantive. Quote, fundamental policy
40:23
disagreements remain, but quote, now it's time to move this
40:26
process forward. Excuse me, guys.
40:29
And he goes ranking member Senator Amy Klobuchar, I
40:33
believe, sorry if I, but you that explains why Democrats
40:37
aren't in full support of the bill yet.
40:39
Quote, the progress that has been made here is good, but I
40:41
think we believe that we're not quite done yet.
40:43
Klobuchar says sticking points are ethics regarding public
40:47
officials and protecting the independence of the CFTC and
40:51
strengthening consumer protections.
40:53
It continues. Senator Cory Booker, the leading
40:56
Dem negotiator on the bill, called putting together the
40:59
November bipartisan tact with John Boozman, quote, one of his
41:02
better experiences in the Senate.
41:05
Now Booker claims Republicans for, quote, walking away from
41:11
the bipartisan process that produced a draft produced in
41:14
November when the Senate came back from Christmas break.
41:16
Quote, to be clear, the product book before us today is not the
41:19
bipartisan draft that we're working on.
41:21
It was negotiated with two parties at the table, but it
41:24
isn't in accord with the principles we laid out in
41:26
November in a bipartisan way. So the initial reading this
41:30
morning was like, OK, you know, the Senate AG, they're probably
41:36
not going to pass this markup on the Clarity Act.
41:39
Let's go back to the table. It, it really made me feel like
41:43
this isn't going to happen. It's like we're never going to
41:45
get the Clarity Act. We're never going to get, quote,
41:47
regulatory clarity. And surprisingly enough, the US
41:51
Senate committee passes the Bitcoin and crypto market
41:54
structure bill. They pass their portion of the
41:57
Clarity Act. Here is Senator Lummus's
41:59
response. She goes, great to see digital
42:02
asset market structure pass Senate AGGOP.
42:06
We are one step closer to getting this legislative at
42:08
Trump's desk. And I look forward to continuing
42:11
to work closely with my colleagues across the aisle to
42:13
make America the digital asset capital of the world.
42:17
So it looks like they passed part of it.
42:22
Here we go. I'm glad I looked at Eleanor's
42:26
Twitter. She goes just in.
42:27
This has just passed its portion of the Clarity Act out of the
42:30
committee on a 12/11 party line vote with no Democrats voting in
42:35
favor. So just by a slim margin it got
42:39
pushed through. I guess it's new info, even
42:48
though after speculation that we weren't going to see anything
42:50
moved. So I guess we're seeing a little
42:54
bit of action out of, you know, Washington.
43:00
I don't know, guys. I'm, I'm pretty burnt out on the
43:01
Clarity Act. I'm pretty burnt out on
43:04
regulatory clarity at this point.
43:06
From all of the conversations we were seeing, it seems like it's
43:10
going to be a monstrosity. It's probably going to be worse
43:12
than if we have no bill, but apparently they work through
43:16
some of that now. We'll see what happens later on.
43:20
Is this why Bitcoin's dumping right now?
43:23
There was a lot of concern this morning whether it was the price
43:28
going down because of them going into vote on this.
43:33
Maybe the uncertainty on over whether it was going to pass or
43:36
not. That's been what a lot of people
43:37
been saying that, you know, once it once the Clarity Act passes,
43:43
then we will be able to resume the bull market.
43:47
I'm wow, we are we're we're dump dumping even more.
43:51
We're 83 six. So it doesn't seem like it has
43:55
affected the price of Bitcoin at all, or rather price of Bitcoin
43:59
into the positive is my is my Wi-Fi messing up?
44:07
I'm not even on Wi-Fi, guys. I'm, I'm in, I'm locked in.
44:15
OK. All right.
44:16
Well, let me add break, I'll refresh and we'll wrap up
44:20
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46:17
OK guys, so as you guys know, if you were here yesterday, sorry
46:24
my throat is wrecked right now. If you were here yesterday, we
46:29
covered the Fed rates decisions yesterday live at the very end
46:34
of the show, but that was at 2:00.
46:38
Usually you get a lot more signal about what the Fed is
46:44
deciding around 2:30. And that's where we got some
46:47
interesting clips, some interesting, maybe some tidbits
46:51
going on. Are they telling us what's going
46:54
on in the markets? Or rather maybe we can read into
46:56
some of these comments a little more.
46:59
And I, I wasn't on long enough for for us to really dive into
47:03
the stuff that Jerome Powell said.
47:05
So we saw we were watching the one minute chart.
47:08
We saw some volatility on the markets, but it does beg a lot
47:13
of questions and I'm going to play one clip.
47:17
I'm going to read one more comment and then I'll kind of
47:19
give you what in my opinion, may be going on.
47:24
And I'm going to pair a couple of the recent interviews ideas
47:27
together. So First off, we got this clip
47:31
of Jerome Powell and I'm just going to play it for you guys
47:37
so. Claire, as you probably know,
47:39
you know, we, we don't comment on the dollar really the
47:41
administration, especially the Treasury Department has the job
47:44
of oversight over over the the currency and so and exchange
47:48
rates and all that. We don't comment on that.
47:49
It's not our not our role. So I have nothing for you.
47:54
I. Mean which of you?
47:56
Interesting comment, right? Do you see what I'm saying?
48:00
So someone Fed admits the Treasury is taking over the
48:03
dollar. There's other people saying that
48:05
the Fed's over the Treasury is in control of the dollar and the
48:10
Fed's kind of their the face here.
48:15
They're they're the scapegoat here.
48:17
But it did very clearly sound like Jerome Powell said, hey, we
48:22
are not in control of the dollar anymore.
48:24
When you really think about it, everyone kind of looks at the
48:26
Fed to be in control of the dollar or interest rates.
48:29
I know their official mandate is what is it, unemployment.
48:35
And man, I'm blanking on what they're their stability.
48:38
I believe it's what they said, but it sounds like Jerome Powell
48:42
just completely admitted that the Treasury's in control of the
48:45
dollar, right? Maybe I'm reading into it, maybe
48:48
I'm speculating a little too much, but the other interesting
48:52
comment that we heard yesterday was this comment.
48:57
Hold on it. I somehow deleted it.
49:02
Here we go. Zero Hedge tweeted this.
49:07
Another interesting comment was Jerome Powell basically saying
49:10
don't take much macro message from the precious metals.
49:16
So we're seeing precious metals rib.
49:19
Everyone's wondering what is this telling us about Fiat
49:21
currencies? Or maybe not everyone.
49:23
Our niche people that care about monetary policy, people that
49:27
understand what monetary policy actually means.
49:30
So we got 2 interesting clips coming out of Jerome Powell's
49:33
speech. One, they don't control the
49:38
dollar. The Treasury controls the
49:40
dollar. And two, don't look at what's
49:41
happening with precious metals. We're not taking much, you know,
49:45
signal from precious metals exploding, which I think is
49:50
probably some misdirection, some some really good gas lighting
49:54
here. Because when you really connect
49:57
that with what we covered on yesterday's show of Trump
50:00
saying, hey, the dollar is doing great, even though we lost 10%
50:04
of purchasing power, rather 11%. Here's, you know, a good
50:08
breakdown of this. So did Powell and Trump just
50:11
agree on something? President Trump yesterday said
50:14
the US dollar is doing great. Fed Chair Powell today says gold
50:19
rally doesn't mean much macroeconomically.
50:23
Apparently it's completely normal when the US dollar loses
50:27
roughly 11% in 12 months and gold adds 1000 plus dollars an
50:33
ounce in 28 days. What a time to be an investor.
50:39
So maybe they aren't fighting each other.
50:43
Maybe things are going according to plan.
50:49
It's very interesting, which this is where I will do you know
50:56
the Opti macro kind of perspective here.
50:59
As you guys know, we had Tom Wongo on last week, we had Simon
51:02
Dixon on this week and everyone in the chat for the last couple
51:06
of weeks, maybe months been like, you know, Opti's my macro
51:11
quant here. I listen to Opti about his macro
51:14
takes like, you know, good job Opti, you're actually getting
51:17
better at your macro takes. Well, I've been doing a little
51:20
bit of work, all right. And even though Tom Luongo and
51:24
Simon Dixon aren't the only people, the only people that I
51:27
look to for signals of what's going on geopolitically and
51:30
macro, they I think right now have two of the driving
51:35
narratives going on. Where as I could sum up Tom
51:39
Luongo's take, which is what I essentially summed up yesterday,
51:44
is what we're seeing and why Trump is saying that the dollar
51:48
losing roughly 11% of its purchasing power is the dollar
51:53
doing great. Because it goes into this Mon a
51:55
Lago accord where since we are the world reserve currency
52:01
dollar is overvalued. It's really making us almost
52:05
damn near impossible to do what we need to do to quote make
52:08
America great again. And the idea of of devaluing the
52:12
purchasing dollar again, the Mon a Lago accords is you're going
52:15
to destroy the purchasing power or rather devalue the dollar,
52:19
lower interest rate so that you can onshore industry so that US
52:23
exports get cheaper essentially so people buy stuff from us.
52:27
And then further, it makes it so that we can, you know, service
52:32
our debt better. And in some sense, you're seeing
52:37
that maybe what Trump is doing is in America First policy in
52:43
terms of macroeconomics, in terms of the economics, if this
52:48
is what they're doing. Again, I'm just reading
52:51
essentially what they're saying, what their policies are doing.
52:55
And it does seem to be driving this America First economic
52:59
policy. Hence why part of me is like,
53:02
yeah, maybe Tom Luongo is right. Maybe what he's saying does make
53:05
a lot of sense that America, Trump administration is playing
53:11
these macro geopolitical games as we've been seeing with
53:14
tariffs. We're scaring some countries
53:16
with tariffs. We're calling them off.
53:18
It's causing a lot of havoc in the markets.
53:20
Is this them trying to onshore industry into the US literally
53:25
in the same sense that Simon Dixon would say, you know,
53:27
weaponize the dollar, but for a America first economic policy,
53:33
That's kind of one take here. The opposing take would be the
53:37
Simon Dixon view where it's essentially, you know, Trump
53:41
works for the financial industrial complex.
53:44
He works for the bankers. His whole goal is to destroy the
53:48
purchasing power of the dollar to reduce America's unipolar
53:52
stance here being the world superpower, to making it more of
53:56
a multipolar world, making us a regional power.
54:00
And therefore we need to devalue the dollar so that we can do
54:04
that, so that people will think that, hey, this is an America
54:08
First policy, but in reality we are losing strength and power on
54:11
the world stage. Now, when you kind of combine
54:14
these two ideas, it almost makes me seem like they are talking
54:21
about the same exact thing, that there are people that are
54:25
outside of purely economics that are looking at what Trump's
54:28
doing and they're very angry at the policies he's doing.
54:32
You know, it's not America first enough for various reasons.
54:36
When you look at it from an economic perspective, I am
54:39
seeing both sides of the coin. What Simon Dixon and Tom Wongo
54:43
are saying, it does seem like the tariffs, the devaluing of
54:49
the dollar are very much bringing industry back into the
54:54
US, making UXUS, exports, you know, putting the cards in our
54:59
favor. But at the same time, what Simon
55:03
Dixon is saying as well is also playing out that they are
55:06
devaluing the dollar. And it just depends on what the
55:09
angle is here. Is Trump working for the banks
55:13
here so that it makes America a regional power, not a world
55:18
power? I can see the angle on that.
55:22
I can see the angle of Tom Wango saying no, we are driving
55:25
industry back on our shores. This isn't America first
55:28
economic policy. But when you look at what Trump
55:31
and Power are both saying, it does look like they're both
55:36
trying to essentially gaslight us into not looking at what our
55:41
eyes and ears believe. We're not looking at the markets
55:44
clearly from my perspective as a bitcoiner, what I'm seeing in
55:48
gold and silver it that is what you should be looking at.
55:51
So the power of gas lighting is insane.
55:54
But then you also, you look at the Dixie, it's like we are
55:56
losing purchasing power in the dollar, hence why assets are
55:59
ripping. So it is a maybe a dichotomy.
56:02
You got to hold two thoughts in your in your mind at once.
56:07
And that really goes into the last point, which was the first
56:11
video. One of the things that Tom
56:13
Malongo has been saying for a while is that the battle we are
56:16
seeing between Trump and Jerome Powell or you know, the Trump
56:20
administration, the US Treasury versus the Fed, is that we are
56:26
trying to wrestle control from the Fed and bring it under
56:29
Treasury. And the smoking gun yesterday
56:32
was Jerome Powell essentially saying, hey, the US Treasury
56:37
controls the dollar, which constitutionally is correct.
56:40
But for the last 100 years, it's been the Fed.
56:43
So this is where I'm thinking, this is where, you know, I'll
56:46
have to digest a lot of this information.
56:48
I've been thinking about it. Last night.
56:50
I had some time. Well, I really, you know, I'm
56:52
trying not to get sick. But while I was dying
56:56
metaphorically, of course, last night, these these were the
57:00
thoughts I'm thinking like, wow, you know, Jerome Powell's speech
57:04
did say some very interesting things.
57:07
You know, who is more correct, Tom Luongo or SIM Simon Dixon?
57:11
I can see both sides of their perspective.
57:13
And maybe now's the time when you want to go back and listen
57:15
to those. And with some more information,
57:18
the new information we've seen today, maybe we can have this
57:23
discussion tomorrow. And you know, we'll see what you
57:26
guys think is going on, but we are seeing, as we've been saying
57:32
for a long time, a monetary reshifting, a monetary
57:35
reordering happen in real time. Now really it's probably what
57:39
are the end goals and who's going to benefit.
57:41
That is probably the most important question or rather the
57:44
more important question. But a lot of the stuff they've
57:49
been saying we are seeing signal out there that is, you know,
57:53
making a case for both of those polar opposite views right now.
58:00
This is where my head's at. This is what I've been kind of
58:02
looking at. This is what what I find the
58:04
most interesting going on right now.
58:07
Let's see. Actually, let me see.
58:10
Oh, yeah. Yeah.
58:11
And also, we might be getting most likely a government
58:14
shutdown in a few days. So, dude, what a time.
58:18
What a time to be alive. What a time to be alive, man.
58:23
All right. Trump's controlled opposition.
58:27
I see. Let me see.
58:30
Anyone else? Anyone else?
58:34
You guys are arguing about some other stuff, Dan.
58:43
Yeah. This Zoom is good.
58:45
This Zoom is on point. Simon Dixon, if I lived in if he
58:48
lived in the 1700s, the colonists stand that chance
58:51
against the British Army. That's too funny, bro.
58:58
That is too funny. All right, anyways, we'll
59:01
probably talk a little more about this tomorrow, but your
59:04
boy needs to get off right now. I need to go get some Dayquil or
59:08
something. So on that note, guys, I love
59:12
you guys. I appreciate you guys.
59:18
I'll see you tomorrow. Let's get let's get some good
59:22
food in today. Take a nap everyone.
59:24
Actually homework. Everyone take a nap.
59:26
If you can take a nap. Government is non essential.
59:30
We should shut them down for longer than 44 days.
59:34
Probably shut it down forever. OK guys, I'll see you guys
59:42
tomorrow. Hopefully I don't feel worse.
59:45
I hope you guys have a good rest of your day.
59:48
Today's show is a little shorter than usual, but your boy's
59:50
struggling over here. All right, peace out to boy
59:53
Opti. We'll be live tomorrow.
59:56
Roughly 1240 PMI know I I know. I put the show at 12:16.
1:00:02
Start time is 1240. You guys know.
1:00:04
Well, roughly, roughly 1240. Anyways, peace out.
1:00:09
Oh, wait. Wrong one.
1:00:11
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