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NFL Week 13 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall system's going clear the lift up.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's on? Everyone? Tyler Tamberline here aka Totagging Tambo back
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: for another edition of Leverage Laying here on the Ship
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: at Nation YouTube station. Make sure to tap that thumbs
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: up on the way in. Make sure to subscribe to
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: the channel for all the other free shows. But we're
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: back for week thirteen. We're breaking down the main slate
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: from a single entry GPP focused perspective. We're going to
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: talk about ownership, probably in ways you don't hear too
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: often around the industry. We're gonna put it all together,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: id out what the common build looks like, how to
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: leverage the common build, and then at the end, my
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: partner in crime and I mister Alex blikel we will
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: get to our leverage lane for the week and Alex,
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: I'll bring you in. It's a holiday week. I know
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: everyone feels a little drowsy, a little bit behind myself included,
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  Speaker 2: but excited for this one always. We had a special
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: addition that went really well with our man hoopster on Wednesday,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: getting ready for Thanksgiving. But we're back. It's a Black
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Friday extended week as well. By the way, like if
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: you if your email inbox isn't filled with a million emails.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: I feel like I thought Black Friday was three weeks ago.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: I've been getting emails since and now it's extended as well.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: So what's going on?
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  Speaker 3: Man?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Man? How you doing?
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: Doing very well?
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  Speaker 3: Is a fun Thanksgiving slate of football? Had a pretty
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: good maint pretty good like draftking slate for Thanksgiving, but
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: then yesterday my Eagles get the lost. The saving grace
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: of the weekend was the pick them and prop side
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  Speaker 3: of things had a really nice hit on Thanksgiving. I
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  Speaker 3: did the same last year, so Thanksgiving apparently is really
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: really kind to pick them. But yeah, I'm really excited
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  Speaker 3: for this slate. I think, you know, it's something we've
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  Speaker 3: said a bunch this year where it's like, hey, this
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: slate feels like it's probably going to be more low scoring,
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  Speaker 3: which is the kind of slate that you and I
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  Speaker 3: really like.
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  Speaker 4: Maybe maybe maybe this.
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  Speaker 3: Is actually the low scoring slate because it is ugly
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  Speaker 3: from a stacked perspective, it's ugly from you know, an
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  Speaker 3: obvious value perspective.
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  Speaker 4: I've got high.
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  Speaker 3: Hopes that this is one of the low scoring slates,
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  Speaker 3: which I historically have done a lot better.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Me, too, and that's what I like, shout out
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  Speaker 2: to everybody geting in. I met Beatle Bain says this
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  Speaker 2: is the great slate, poor leverage, laying Kenny Down's there.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: I said, this is quite the slate, but someone has
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: to win. He's right, he's correct. So hopefully we can
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: help you guys with that last week. Man to your
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Jessen call, that was very nice and happened pretty quickly
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  Speaker 2: as well. I was like, all you want to leave
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: this guy, He'll just roll go ahead.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, man.
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  Speaker 3: We talked about it a little bit on the Thursday show.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: But I had Jameis Winston, I had Wandale Robinson, I
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: had Smith and Jake Ba and I had Jamiir Gibbs.
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  Speaker 4: They combined for over one hundred and sixty points.
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  Speaker 3: That's more points than my Week one lineup at almost
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: one a million dollars and I barely mean cash. It's
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: insane just how I scoring these slates have been. And
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  Speaker 3: the thing about that is like when you have those
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  Speaker 3: contrarian separator calls that hit in a huge way, they
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: just don't separate as much because so much, so much
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  Speaker 3: of the chunk is also hitting in a big way,
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  Speaker 3: and it's been really frustrating. But you know, I think
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  Speaker 3: the thing to keep in mind is like, even if
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: this slate wasn't so ugly, we know with certainty that
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  Speaker 3: not every single slate is going to be high scoring.
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  Speaker 3: And I do still think there's a strong advantage in
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: asking yourself what does the slate look like? If it's
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: low scoring, how does that happen? And then how do
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  Speaker 3: I take.
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  Speaker 4: Advantage of that?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and even last week was crazy, Like some people
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: said you could have all you could have two or
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  Speaker 2: three pieces, right, but you needed a lot more than that.
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  Speaker 2: If you just had Gibbs, great, those fifty eight points
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  Speaker 2: were awesome, but it was like you needed more to
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  Speaker 2: go with it. My stack last week started super strong.
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  Speaker 2: Your Eagles, by the way, and I mean two punishments
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  Speaker 2: for you back to back. By the way, Ravens took
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  Speaker 2: the l as well too on Thanksgiving, so it's like
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  Speaker 2: our teams losing, but your guys were up twenty one
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  Speaker 2: nothing early. It was all aj Brown on to Smith.
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  Speaker 2: I was loving it. Hurts is doing his thing. The
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  Speaker 2: Cowboys couldn't really keep up until they could and then
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  Speaker 2: they actually came back and won. So that was devastating
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  Speaker 2: from an Eagles fan perspective, but it didn't really help
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  Speaker 2: for DFS that the Eagles did nothing in the second
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  Speaker 2: half and then yeah, your your team yesterday just to
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  Speaker 2: you know, tough, tough scene, but maybe it's tough. We'll
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  Speaker 2: see the Bears making fun of them after saying they
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: knew exactly what was gonna happen and howble it was. Like.
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  Speaker 2: That type of stuff is a really tough scene in
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  Speaker 2: the NFL. But I gotta say other side of it
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  Speaker 2: is like zero bias to either of those teams. Ben Johnson,
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  Speaker 2: that fired up speech in the locker room, I live
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  Speaker 2: for that shit. I love that stuff.
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  Speaker 4: Man.
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  Speaker 2: His guys are clearly bought in. People can say what
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  Speaker 2: they want about schedules and all this stuff, but you
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  Speaker 2: can only play what's put in front of you. You
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  Speaker 2: have to beat the teams that you that you draw,
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  Speaker 2: and they've done a good job of doing that. So
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  Speaker 2: congrats to the Bears getting the job done. And hopefully
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  Speaker 2: the Eagles look lots of time. The people were saying
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  Speaker 2: it about them at this time last year too, and
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  Speaker 2: they going to win the Super Bowl. So yeah, all
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: good stuff. Let's break it down though. Let's get into
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  Speaker 2: it as we usually do. You've mentioned it a couple
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  Speaker 2: of things on this slate, Alex out of the gate one.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: The weather's a big talking point, which also leads we
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: go down the lane. Like we say, weather leads to
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  Speaker 2: typically where that ownership is going, which then leads to
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  Speaker 2: the common build. What are you sort of seeing putting
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: all those pieces together early on how it's sort of
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  Speaker 2: formulating the ownership on this slate, which then we'll get
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  Speaker 2: to the common build after. What are you seeing?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think right off the bat, Houston seems
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  Speaker 3: like it's going to be the most popular stack, and
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  Speaker 3: the reason for this is honestly kind of clear. It's
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  Speaker 3: like you look around the slate and number one, as
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  Speaker 3: we said, there's there's a bit of a it's going
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  Speaker 3: to be hard to go find that really good value, right,
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  Speaker 3: and so what do people like to do when that's
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  Speaker 3: the case. They like to correlate their value. Okay, Well,
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  Speaker 3: Higgins has been solid for them, Christian Kirk has been solid.
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  Speaker 4: So thirty nine hundred, thirty four hundred.
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  Speaker 3: Now you've got Nico Collins at sixty seven hundred, who
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  Speaker 3: we all know has the same ceiling that you know
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  Speaker 3: Smith and Jay Gunpuca who are going to get plenty
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  Speaker 3: of ownership have.
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  Speaker 4: So I think people go there.
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  Speaker 3: And the other big part about that is we talked
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  Speaker 3: about how much potential weather there is. This is one
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  Speaker 3: of the I think it might even be the only
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  Speaker 3: indoor game. If it's not, it's one of two or three.
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  Speaker 3: So you just get kind of like a perfect storm here.
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  Speaker 3: People need the value, people want the one indoor turf game,
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  Speaker 3: and what is that lead to. It leads to a
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  Speaker 3: lot of ownership for CJ. Stroud, So he's also at
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  Speaker 3: a bit of a discounted price tag because he just
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  Speaker 3: missed a couple of weeks.
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  Speaker 4: So I think that's kind of the first thing.
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  Speaker 3: And it not only tells us where ownership is going,
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  Speaker 3: but it also tells us just how hard it is
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  Speaker 3: to find really good game environments and really good stacks elsewhere.
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  Speaker 4: If Houston is suddenly the most popular.
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  Speaker 2: Passing stack, yeah, too many These are don't even full
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  Speaker 2: on tambo tangents, but just no, it's like I always
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  Speaker 2: want to put these back out there because I heard
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  Speaker 2: this before or whatever, But like one thing is a
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  Speaker 2: factor for sure, weather wise when you look at it. Yes,
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  Speaker 2: there is a couple of games out there. You can
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  Speaker 2: go check it out and find the weather and see it.
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  Speaker 2: But a lot of the games that are being targeted
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  Speaker 2: or ticketed as like, oh this could be a weather game.
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  Speaker 2: Back at game time, we're talking about like ten mile
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  Speaker 2: an hour wins, like maybe some light rain. These are
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  Speaker 2: not bad spots. People just automatically go to the team
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  Speaker 2: total and say, well, you know these have bad team totals.
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  Speaker 2: Go look again. They all do, almost every game does.
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  Speaker 2: And then this is my tangent part of reminding people
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  Speaker 2: that total point totals don't always equal the fantasy points scored.
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  Speaker 2: If you can find the fantasy points within the game,
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  Speaker 2: a team could put up fourteen points, but that could
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  Speaker 2: be a running back that has two touchdowns on the
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  Speaker 2: ground in one hundred and fifty yards. I don't care
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  Speaker 2: if they only scored fourteen points. You probably need that
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  Speaker 2: running back and they were affordable, or they made it work,
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  Speaker 2: or they were just a piece that's needed because of
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  Speaker 2: how bad the scoring was. So remember it's best. It's
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the best week possible to ignore that. And just a
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: little side note, you and I were talking pre show,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: and I know we're gonna spend time on as we
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: always do. It's on signle entry focus. But for those
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: with like a portfolio out there, if there was ever
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: a week where you're saying, Okay, I hate picking Josh
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  Speaker 2: Allen's guys because he's in a good spot this week,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: it's hard to get him right. Well, if there was
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: ever a week in a portfolio to just get Josh
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  Speaker 2: Allen in there a bunch and find a bunch of
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: different opportunities, it would be a week like this where
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: you're struggling with all the other stuff that's out there.
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  Speaker 2: So things like that that you can do that are
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: just a little bit ways. Different ways that you can
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: switch it up on a slate like this I think
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: are important to consider, remember and think about when you're
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: out there building. The interesting part about that, Alex is
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: when you reverse engineer backwards to what we're here to
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: talk about in single edtric, it's like, well, that doesn't
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: really help me because it's Josh Allen and who and
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: we might not have the Coleman news till I don't
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: think we will until an actives come out. Like an
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: hour and a half before that game, they brought on
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Brandon Cooks, which probably means nothing but just putting it
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: all together can be tricky, and in single entry you
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: get one shot any extra thoughts on things along those
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: lines before we hop into sort of go and position
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: by position and what we see.
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  Speaker 3: The last thing I'll say about weather is it we
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: should give a reminder that you know, now that the
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: weather's colder, everything matters just a little bit more. So,
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: you know, ten to fifteen miles per hour of wind
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: is literally nothing at all. When it's warm out ten
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  Speaker 3: to fifteen miles an hour, you start to see a
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  Speaker 3: little bit of a decline in passing offense passing efficiency
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: when it's really cold. And then anything about that, you know,
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: it it all compounds, right, like very small things compound
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  Speaker 3: together to be a little bit impactful. So just something
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: to keep in mind, and a reminder to also look
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: at the weather because like you know, that also means
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: ten to fifteen miles an hour in Miami is not
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: going to be the same as the ten to fifteen
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: that we saw in Philly or something like that, right,
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: So just yeah, something to keep in mind. But I
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: think you said it really well too. It's like it's
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: it also it's it's really not about the median outcome.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: It's not about what's the most likely way that this
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: game plays out. It's what's the full range of outcomes,
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  Speaker 3: And a lot of these bad weather games still have
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: really good upper and range of outcomes from a fantasy perspective.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, somebody said it earlier in the chat, and I
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: agree with it for sure. On weeks like this, and
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: that's so you and I talk about why we liked it.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: If it again may not even be a lower scoring slay,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: But if it was, and if it ever will be,
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: the reason we love those so much is because then
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: it becomes a lot more of a construction thing. It's
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: not like, you know, it's is it likely hit or
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: is it projected as well to hit on the medium projection?
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Probably not. But is it built in a way that
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: if it goes our way and the ceiling side of
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: it hits, we're just so much further separated from the field.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: That's what matters. And you just have to be willing
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: to lose. Like we talked about it on Thanksgiving, on
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: a short slate. It's really all slates, but on slates
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: like this specifically where there's uncertainty and all that. Remember,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: people are just naturally built to move towards the certainty
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: meaning whatever they hear people saying, We're like, oh, well
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: that game's a little bit risky. I don't want to
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: do that, go with it. I go the other side
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: of that always. And that's why, again, it's not how
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: often you're right, it's how much you win when you
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: are right. Shout out to my boy title, that's a
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: good one that he says all the time. And that's
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: key on a slate like this. So what I'm gonna
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: flip it up a little bit this week just because
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: it's kind of the slate that we have at hand.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: And I'm just curious because you said you didn't update
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: this morning on ownership, and you talked about Stroud getting
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: the steam and I agree one hundred percent on that.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: What other quarterbacks specifically are you seeing for single entry,
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: because we know that's going to sort of bleed into
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: the rest. Running back will be its own conversation. But
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: what else are you seeing there at quarterback going to
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: lead to the stacks?
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: We see The only other two that I see that
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: they could end up being like, let's say fifteen percent,
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: are Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert. The advantage to Tyrode
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: is pretty clear. And obvious number one, Like we just
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: saw Bryce Young win a slate against Atlanta, so people
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: love love that aspect of it.
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: But then also Tyrod has two.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: Of the absolute cheapest wide receivers that you could possibly
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: pare with him, Mechi and added I Mitchell. And the
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: other advantage to that stack is it seems pretty clear
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: like if you are going to stack Tyrod, if the
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: Jets do produce through the air, it's pretty much going
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: to be those two guys. Maybe Mason Taylor as well,
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: but people could mix him in. So regardless of how
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: you're stacking Tyrod, it's like the cheapest thing imaginable. So
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: anyone who wants to go get you know, a Chan
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: and McCaffrey and Puka or and JSN, the Jets are
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: kind of the way to do it.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm curious too, just looking now. Again, we always
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: tie this together and sort of it bleeds into each
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: other and blends. But I don't see a lot of
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: love for Bijon right now. I don't know if it's
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: because Tyler year as we gett in the mix so
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: much lately, like we've seen that type of thing where
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: people are sort of scared of it a little bit.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: I think that's interesting because he would fit that stack,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: but also be a you know, a ceiling piece that
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: could happen on the other side that would that would
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: blend into that. And then it's also interesting that I
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: see Breeze Hall's ownership up there quite a way as well.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: And I don't know if it's because originally people thought
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: they were going to go that way instead of Tyrod,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: it's because you can obviously afford them all together. How
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: do you sort of see those pieces blending into the
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: mix of that one Because talked a little bit on
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: Straut already, and he'll sort of be talked about more
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: when we get to wide receiver with Higgins and Collins
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: and those guys.
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I've got Breece as the second most
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: popular play on the slate, probably going to get to
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: thirty percent, maybe even higher in high stake stuff. I
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: think Beijon is going to be up there among the
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: running backs, but I only have him at nineteen point
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: four percent in single entries right now. The main reason
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: for that is I have dvon ah chan as just
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: absurdly so we've got fifty eight point two percent for
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: a chance single entry ownership this week going to be
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: really really high, And again that's just kind of a
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: product of there are no obvious spots for offenses. New
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: Orleans pretty good matchup for running backs, and eight Chan
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: has kind of done it against everyone.
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: And the thing with a Chan is like he.
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: He obviously is gamescript independent because of how much he
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: does in the receiving game, but this is one of
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: the only times where we can actually, you know, somewhat
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: confidently say A Chan is going to have a game
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: script where he should be force fed over and over.
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: And over again, and they're not going to have to
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: try to push the ball downfield. They're not gonna have
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: to try to just drop back and throw all the time.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: So you know, the chance that he breaks off another
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: explosive run is a little bit higher just because he's
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: going to get more carries in this one than what
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: we've seen in a lot of games where he's kind
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: of been game scripted.
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: Out in that way.
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: So I think people are really going to flock to him.
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: He's also a little bit cheaper than the other like
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: real real studs on the slate, like the Jonathan Taylor's
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: and JSN, So part of the reason why Beijon's quote
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: unquote only twenty ish percent is because so many people
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: are going to go to a Chan, right, And.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: I love that, by the way, that's the best part.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: The way you said it is actually perfect too, because
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: we're like, oh, he's twenty percent. So many people actually
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: see it as the other way, like he's chopped right.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: They just assume at twenty percent, it's like eighty percent
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: is not playing him, and he's when he's eighteen to
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: twenty in the higher dollars smaller field or even just
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: smaller field stuff in general, like we're talking about single
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: entry here. That matters when the other guy is forty
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: to fifty at the two hundred bucks more in a
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: different spot obviously, but just looking at it from that perspective,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: you can build differently. What if you had a a
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Tua build right with Tua and the pass catchers with Robinson,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: It's like, now you're saying, I'm taking the dude that
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: was gonna be a Chan there for that price, I'm
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: putting Bijeon, but I'm flipping it and I'm putting Miami
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: passing attack around it, where even though yes they're maybe
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: a little ownership attached, it's not anywhere near the you know,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: forty to fifty percent you're gonna see on a chan
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: So little things like that, we'll circle back. We're gonna
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: continue circling around some of these positional stuff that we
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: see that are forming the common build. Somebody mentioned the
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: Breeze Hall the cash carry over. Yes, I think you're
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: there's also something interesting to it, and we usually do
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: this in the second segment just given some of these ideas. Now,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: but like if you wanted to go Tyrod, you still can.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: It's just you might have to go like Tyrod Breese
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: one of Mitchell and Metchi with Mason Taylor, or skip
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: the wide receivers where most are going with Taylor, Go Taylor,
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: haul Taylor, Hall Taylor and do it that way right,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: and you skip around and you can get Breeze Hall
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: in there with the quarterback and the tight end, none
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: of those cheap wide receivers that most are using to
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: make it all work and then make some decisions within
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: that game on the other side. So definitely think there's
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: some interesting ways to go there. Another one, this one
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: kind of leeds back to the Herbert mentioned at quarterback,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: is are you seeing Gadson getting as much seam as
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: I am right now at tight end, Like, is that
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: sort of what you're seeing.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got him in the he and Kyle Pitts
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: right at nineteen percent leading the way it tight ends,
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: it's it could go either way here, And I think
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: one of the big factors in ownership is how many
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: people actually go to Herbert. If Herbert gets to fifteen percent,
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: Gadsden might get to twenty five or thirty. If Herbert
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: stays down at eight or nine percent, then Gadsden might
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: be as low as ten to fifteen. So there's a
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: really wide range of outcomes on the ownerships at tight
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: end this week, I think that's it's probably like the
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: least certain I've been for a kind of overall position
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: group in quite a while in these main sleeps.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: Well, what I see this is what's interesting about is
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: like it's the wide receivers for the chargers are kind
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: of being held in check. So it really to me,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: it's funny. It's like the I think the Herbert steam
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: depends on the Gadson steam, like almost how we've seen
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: in the past with like a defense pushing up a
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: running back or a running back bringing up a defense
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: later on. It's like, that's the situation here is it
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: feels like nobody really is in love with anybody at
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: tight end. We don't have the situation where, you know,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: right now when they move mcbright up to seventy eight
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: hundred and Harrison's coming back and all this that was
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: sort of announced before this. It was expected anyway, but
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: it looks like he's gonna be good to go off
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: the appendicitis or whatever. So just looking for Arizona Bride
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: at seventy eight hundred is not the same as McBride
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: at sixty eight hundred and super appetizing when nobody else
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: is on the site that anybody cares about. If Gadson
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: does continue to be popular and steam up, that just
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: leads to it. And it kind of is this shout
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: out to my guy Kenny again. But he said, Tyrod
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Breeze stop is fine too, and assume they run, that's
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: really all they want to do. I actually agree one
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: hundred percent what I think though, just my opinion and
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: doing some builds beforehand, it's not easy to stop. And
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: it's like, you know, you go for a you know,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: one of those chocolate chip cookies during the holiday season,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: like I could have another one. It's the holidays. It's
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: like as soon as you get the opportunity to put
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: one of Mechi or Mitchell in there, you're like, man,
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: now I can really get it all. And hopefully that's
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: different enough. So I think people have trouble setting that limit,
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Alex up putting that stop and just saying one cookie limit.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: They want to go back for the second. And that's
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: the tricky part because it makes everything look really good
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: and it still correlates, and that's what people want. So
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you want to add anything else
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: to that or anything more that you think of missing.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe defense we could add hit on quickly, but to
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: add on, but anything else you see or anything else
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: you want to bring up there?
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, two things there. The first on the on the
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: charger stuff.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: I do think QJ and LADD could get ownership to,
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: you know, fifteen percent is if Herbert Sacks become popular.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: I think what we're seeing is most Herbert Stacks would
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: be Herbert Gadsden and one of the receivers. And because
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: of that, you can't get any of those receivers to
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: like mega chalk or anything close to that. It could
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: mean that the smarter way to do it is either
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: triple stack or just double with receivers and go lad
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: In QJ. But I think the most popular is going
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: to be Herbert QJ and Gadsden because then you have
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: both of those pass catchers under five thousand dollars and
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: you're turning a Herbert stack, which feels like it's you know,
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: one of the more expensive stacks because Herbert is typically expensive,
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: and you're turning it into one of the cheaper stacks
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: on the slate with those pass catchers.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: So I could see that being pretty popular.
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: Then that would get brought back, you know, probably with
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: either Gene or maybe people would go double tight end
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: with Bowers. You could also then do you know Herbert QJ,
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Ladd and now Bowers is the obvious bringback And you're saying, okay, well,
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: what if Bowers really separates from the tight end position,
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: which means Gadsden doesn't do a whole lot, so.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: That would make sense.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: The other thing I'd say on the Jets stuff, this
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: is not a slate where I want to mess with
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: something like Tyrod and breeze and stop. Because what we're
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: saying when we talk about this slate being potentially a
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: lot more low scoring. Is it's going to be harder
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: to find all of the one offs that just hit
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: in succession, right, And so if that's the case, you
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: don't want to build a lineup that relies on your
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: ability to hit one one off after another.
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: You want as much correlation as you can get.
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: So if anything, I'd go the opposite direction, and I'd overstack,
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: and I'd say not just Tyrod Mitchell and Mechi, but
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: also give me Breeze Hall.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: And now, if the Jets happen.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: To be one of the higher scoring offenses on the slate,
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: which ordinarily is really really unlikely on this slate, it
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: wouldn't be totally shocking.
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: Now you're really kind of cooking with gas.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see it in a couple different ways.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: One I see like, especially from a just like start
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: off point and get it right for ten thy three hundred.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: I mean this one a million maker with Justin Fields
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: and Breesaw. Earlier in the season, when I had this
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: exact conversation, and I had had those too, it was
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: myself score up. Patrol and Mayo were talking about it.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: They weren't as high on it either, But I was
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: like you're getting two for you know, ten point three k.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I think you could do that, but then you don't
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: have to figure it out. But to your point, like,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: there's also so many scenarios here. I think, like Tyrod Mechi, Mitchell,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Taylor and then use Bijon on the other side, and
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: that's five spots you get to bury. And it's like,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: that's just not how other people are playing it. It
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: double leverages Breese with like the Briesse ownership, you know,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: spread out amongst a four man like a triple with Taylor.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: It's still super affordable because forty three, thirty eight, thirty
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: six and thirty three for four guys. And even if
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: you didn't put Bijeon in there, I'm just saying, if
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: you wanted to speed it up, I would, I'd kind
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: of do it that way. You could do something else.
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: You'd have room for Mech sorry for Mooney if you
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: want to. If you wanted to triple, M's right the
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: Millie Maker mix down. You got Mechi, Mitchell Mooney right
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: up the middle, so you get the m stack up
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: the middle, and then you can do it that way.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's a few different ways you could do it,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: but that's gonna be. The way to get different on
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: this slate is to just go a little bit further
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: than the certainty of others out there where they say
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: I think this is the case. You're gonna say, yeah,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: it could be, But I think it's gonna go even further,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: and I'm not gonna mess around with a bunch of
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: different games. Last couple things before we get to the
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: next box, we're already kind of getting into the ways
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: that we could leverage to come and build. Here is
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: what is your take on Jonathan Taylor. He got a
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: price drop this week two hundred bucks less. He's not
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: ten k anymore, he's ninety eight hundred. But if you
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: look from you know the spot he is in that
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Houston game, it can work. What sort of your thoughts
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: on that just as a running back one off or
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: to make that game stack work? How are you seeing it?
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: I don't really have much interest here. Houston is just
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: such a good defense.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: You're you're relying on the explosive plays, You're on a
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: lot of touchdown equity, and I just don't know that
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: they can score enough to give Taylor that opportunity. Houston
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: is one of the best defenses in football, and the
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: one thing that they have been slightly vulnerable to is explosives.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: So it's not like the worst idea in the world
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: to go to Jonathan Taylor. But we're talking about one
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: of the absolute best defenses in the league, and probably
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: the best from a success rate standpoint.
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: So it's not going to be for me.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: But if I was stacking Houston, it makes a little
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: bit more sense. He breaks the eighty arder. Now it
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: forces Stroud to throw a little bit more. It gets
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: in the ball right back, So at least the correlation
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: aspect makes a lot of sense with within a game
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: sack there, But no interest.
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: For me other than that.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: Okay, and then the only other place we didn't really
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: touch on we said we'd circle back to it just
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: because you know, we talked a little bit about Nico
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: Collins and Higgins fitting that build and people being comfortable
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: with that. I guess for right now, you could say,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: like I could see a lot of builds that have
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: like Stroud, maybe it's Higgins just as much, or I
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: mean overall, I think see more on Collins, but I'm
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: saying it's just the Higgins part will just make so
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: much sense because he fits it and he's cheap, so
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: I can see that. But if you put those two,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be breeze hall a Chan and then sort
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: of move around from there, and then we've already hit
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: on some of those spots on how we can leverage them.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: We'll go through that in segment number two. But is
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: there other stuff at wide receiver that you're seeing like
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: pooka versus JSN, the wattle stuff, you know, is there
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: other things that you're seeing at the wide receiver spot
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: that you think will be important to touch on here?
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: Well, I think let's just stay with this Houston offense
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: for a second, because Indianapolis on the year has been
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: one of the worst matchups possible for wide receiver ones
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: four point four fantasy points per game.
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: Below those wide.
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: Receiver one averages, they've been great for wide receiver twos
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: and other wide receivers plus six point one fantasy points
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: per game and plus three point nine that's according to
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: our deba, just the fantasy points against data over at FTEN.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: The problem is now so Scarner's in town, Antravarious Ward
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: is back, and so I no longer feel confident attacking
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: them with the quote unquote wide receiver two, Pably Higgins
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: for Houston. I guess I'd still be a little bit
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: confident in the wide receiver three call it Christian Kirk.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: The problem is it's just now so much easier for
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: them to defend the entire field than it was when
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: only one cornerback. Traveria's ward was really good. So I'm
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: a little bit hesitant and personally, like, I just think
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: this is a kind of an easy fade, not just
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: from an ownership perspective, but also I think we can
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: do better from an expectation standpoint, which is why, like
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: this is the kind of slight I love, because we
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: actually get chalk that I think is a lot more
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: fragile than most of the chalk that we've seen this year.
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm I kind of think that's where i'd start.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: And that also makes an Eco Collins a pretty rough play,
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: and we actually have an Eco Collins as one of
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: the most popular wide receiver plays on the slate I
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: mentioned earlier, Like, I think people are going to come
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: down a little bit from Pooka and JSN just because
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: those are big price tags ninety five hundred dollars on
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: a slate where it's not easy to find value. So
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: going to a wide receiver one that you feel like
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: he has the same upside as a nine thousand dollars receiver,
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: gettinghim for sixty seven hundred dollars that seems like the
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: you know, a very prototypical move that the field is
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: gonna make.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and our man aids he was in it on
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: your point earlier to kind of nails it again. I mean,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: the overstacks have been crushing. You've been on this all
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: season long. We've we've been on them for leverage lane
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: pieces at the end. It could be again today, but
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: just noting it. It's like a lot of people, even
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: though they're gonna correlate well and feel good about what
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: they're doing, there is gonna be like a one two
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: three stop uh secondary one two secondary one two defense fits. Oh,
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: and they correlate with the running back. Oh, it feels
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: really good. But then it could just be like one
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: two three four five one two three one and that
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: kind of finishes the job if people get what I'm saying,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: So like that, that's kind of the setup I'm seeing
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: as well. And again, will it feel it'll it should
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: feel good on paper because you're like it's not like
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: you want to feel completely comfortable, but I'm saying you're
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: you're overstacked, but you're like, at least I'm still in
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: a good spot. It's just that's gonna be the thing
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: where when others are like, oh, I got two of
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: the three pieces right, but or two pieces right, but
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: I needed three or four pieces there, it's like I
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: missed on the other two or whatever it might be.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: That's kind of how we look at that. Just of
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: note too, I'm skipping ahead again, but I actually don't
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: think the Colts D is that bad at thirty one hundred,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: if you're talking about just leveraging Houston completely, like you
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: said about some of the other stuff and what they
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: have available there. I know on paper it might not
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: look as good, but in general could definitely be a
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: spot there, especially if they can pick off those other
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: wide receiver spots. It's like, Okay, throw it to Christian Kirk,
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: let's see how that works out for you, and we'll
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: take our chances. Let's see how that looks. You never
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: know that that could be a good set up there.
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah. I like that bell for sure.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: Anything else at the like JSN versus Pooka versus you know,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: some of the higher price guys or anything else there
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: that you wanted to mention. They both look like they're
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: being at least a little bit held in check, but
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: obviously people will be able to spend up. People really
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: struggled with the nine K and above price tag on
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: JSN last week and obviously killed them. But you were
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: dead hun with that one. He's ninety five hundred here Again,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: his bad games look like most people's ceiling games, So
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: that's the key with him. And then I guess, just
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: to mention the Puka situation, I don't know, like he's
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: nine K and people seems scared. I know there shows
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: the ownership, but I wonder if these DeVonta Adams touchdowns
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: are worrying people more and more as they see him
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: continue to get what was it, five touchdowns and like,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: you know, very limited yardage. He's just getting the short,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: short yardage touchdowns. Many thoughts, So.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: Let's talk about JASM for a second.
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: I think this is a really good conversation to have
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: when when we talk about the JYSN game last week
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: being a good call, I think it's important to realize,
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: like what made that a good call was not that
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: I thought Jaysn is going to have a huge game
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: today and we should play him, and said it was
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: correct about the ownership. I had the ownership at ten
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: percent or below. He came in like eight percent in
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: a lot of single entries, especially in higher stake stuff.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: That's the part that was really impactful to be right,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: because then it's not a question of what is Jasn
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: going to do, it's there's just no reason for a
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: guy with this much upside, with this probability of a
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: thirty point game, a thirty five point game, a forty
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: point game like we actually saw, there's no reason for
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: that guy to be this lowanned. If he had been
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: twenty percent and on last week, I wouldn't have been
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: on it, because again I was not predicting a forty
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: point performance. I wasn't saying he's going to have a
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: great game. I was saying, this guy's so productive, he
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: has such a high probability of having that really good game,
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: that he shouldn't be this low owned. This week, we've
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: got him projected a nineteen percent in single entries, and
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: I think I'm one of the few who's actually projecting
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: him below the Pookah ownership I've got Pooka at twenty one,
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: JSN at nineteen.
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are kind of the
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: other way around.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: But so for me, like they're just both at a
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: point where it's a little bit higher than I won,
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: and I'd rather build a more balanced lineup, or I'd
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: rather go to an expensive running back something like that.
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: So I don't think I'm going to be on either
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: of these guys.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: But it's also a case where right now they're both
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: projected around twenty what happens if tonight or tomorrow morning
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: that changes to one of the guys that's gonna be
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: undred fifteen percent the other's going to be twenty five
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: to thirty. Well, now I have suddenly a lot of
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: interest in the guy who I think is going to
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: be lower.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what we're gonna have to wait and see.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Like you said, more over the weekend. Here it's just
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: Saturday morning, but we'll get some more details and upside
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: on the ownership information. But it doesn't look like anyone's
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: really stacking them. That'd be my standout point. I don't
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: know if you do anything else you want to talk about.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: If not, we could start going through some of these
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: ways to leverage the common build. I think we're pretty
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: clear on what that looks like now from just breaking
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: it down. If any weren't following, it's clearly the Houston
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: stuff as far as the Stroud passing attack, maybe some Tyrod,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: maybe some Herbert, the stuff that fits in. Someone who
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: doesn't play Herbert necessarily might still play at Gadson as
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: a spot there to get a piece of that. And
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: then it's a Breese Hall. You're gonna have a Chan,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: you're gonna have you know, some of those other guys
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: that we talked about up the middle as far as
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: wide receivers go, if you if they got the money
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: to spend, but one thing I was gonna add just
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: to those higher priced wide receivers, I think you've got
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: it right. Pook ahead of JSN as far as ownership goes,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: JSN much higher than last week because people will just
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: which is a product of the previous point as well.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: By the way, when people aren't overstacking necessarily, unless they
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: go to the cheaper over stacks, I don't know if
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: they'll have the money or that's how they'll they will
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: spend the money is like one two three cheap enough
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: one two cheap enough, and then I can fit JSN
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: and they'll feel good about that build versus the overstack
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: that can still fit them as a one off and
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: do it that way. But I was just gonna add
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: I don't see Darnald or Stafford getting very much ownership
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: right now. Again, price is important and all that, but
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: if those receivers have their bigger games, it's always nice
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: to have the quarterback attached, especially if you have so
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: much uncertainty on the slate. Why not do it that
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: way where that could be what leads to it and
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: those could be twenty five to thirty point outputs for
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: the quarterback that goes with them. Anything to add on
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: that one, and if dots some other ways you see
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: to leverage the common build.
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: Now, none on that specifically, but one last thing on
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: the common build I think that that's worth noting.
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: Is remember that one of the three quarterbacks that we.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: Just talked about there is potentially being really popular as
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor. So anyone who decides no, I want Stroud
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: or no I want Herbert instead of the Tyrod stack, well,
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: they now become even more likely to go choose Breeze Haw.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: So for me, I think the common build is a
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: Stroud double, probably Nico Collins involved in that, and then
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Chen and let's throw Breese Hall on.
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: There as well.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: So that to me is what we're leveraging. It's the
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: Stroud double or the Herbert double with Chan and Breese Hall.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Yes, I like that call quite a bit. And that's
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: where even like I think it's interesting because that's where
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: I said, I see, like the Gadson stuff can even
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: still get into that because if people are going it
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: could be Collins with Higgins and then stopping it there,
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: but then that still leaves a tight end block open
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: to it for a onesie positions like well, if I'm
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: not on Tyrod, I throw Breese Hall on the running back.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: If I'm not on Herbert, I throw Gadson into the
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: tight end spot. And these are just like you said,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: it's very fragile chalk, which sounds like an oxymoron this
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: season because it's been like, you know, every time see
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: it feels like it, But we've shown plenty of times
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: where it's like, man, the end of the day, there's
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: been a lot of weeks where three chalk pieces smashed
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: and three did not, So you kind of got to
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: look at it from that perspective as well. Yeah, and
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: Nate said, this is still still ce j Stratas's talk
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: about the indie stuff. Any thoughts on this one. Kenny's
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: got some good stuff here too. I mean your JSN
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: thought from last week. I'd like tell you framed it
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: up because again, so many people go off calls based
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: on results oriented things. It wasn't like you said, when
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: you get him in there at eight percent, it's not
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: really a matter of what he's going to do he's JSN,
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: it's what is he going to do and how much
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: is that going to matter? Well, massive amounts when ninety
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: two percent of the field doesn't have him. It's such
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: a massive separator with someone who has the probability, like
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: you said, of of putting up such a high ceiling.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: And that's what makes a ton of sense. Do you
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: have any thoughts on the CMC spot right out of
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: the gate here, because Kenny brings up a good point
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: and at ninety three hundred, you know the way people
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: are spending this week, it looks like people are spending
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: that money at wide receiver if they're going to I
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: think the.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Idea is really sound and I do agree that I
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: think McCaffrey's going to be ten percent, kind of right
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: in that JSN range from last week, also in the
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: range that we really nailed Gibbs a few weeks ago
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: against Washington when he and that forty point explosion. So
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: we've got a really good track record of finding these
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: ten percent superstuds. But I don't think mccaffery's going to
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: be that guy for me this week. And one of
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: the main reasons is you just kind of look through
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: what he has done this season. His success is incredibly
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: correlated to the strength of the matchup, right, Like his
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: only two bad games, the Rams one of the best
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: defenses in the league seventeen point six Houston one of
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: the best defense in the league. We just talked about
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: this was Jonathan Taylor nine point eight Fantasy points that game.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: Cleveland is a really really difficult matchup. They're in an
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: excellent defense, And to me, it's it doesn't mean that
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: like they're going to be able to shut down McCaffery,
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: they're going to be able to take away what he does.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: It's just those you know, fifteen twenty yard receptions become
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: five to ten yard receptions. The likelihood that he breaks
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: a twenty yard run or a seventeen yard run and
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: turns it into a touchdown, just goes way down. So
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: I just think his his outlook is a lot lower
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: this week than most and in particular, like it's not
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: necessarily his median outcome that's moving a ton, it's the
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: ceiling outcome that's moving a ton, And so I'm not
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: going to be super interested in him at ninety three hundred.
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: I don't think that. Also, I believe is one of
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: the actual worst weather games. Was that correct?
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: Tambla, Oh, you're looking for the weather now, and it's
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: just it says right now, decent chance for some rain
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: sustained wins around twenty miles an hour GUS pushing up
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: to thirty five. So you think that's gonna affect for
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: you know, in Cleveland too, Like I said, colder and
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: all of that, that can definitely be a factor for sure.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean so like to me that lets this
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: really aggressive Cleveland defense be even more aggressive because they
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: don't have to defend the deep ball as much as
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: they otherwise would. So maybe things aren't quite as open
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: underneath for McCaffrey. But more than anything else, like it
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: just changes the overall scoring environment, right, Like McCaffrey, because
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: he's such a massive part of the offense, his production
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: is going to very closely mirror the production of the
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: offense overall.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: So if you cut the scoring.
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: In half from the San Francisco offense compared to what
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: they've done in recent games, well, that's going to have
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: a similar effect on McCaffrey's expected fantasy points. So I
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: really like the concept that really like the idea of
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: just finding, hey, who's who's one of the guys with
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: thirty five percent or with a with thirty five point
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: upside who's going to be ten percent or below. McCaffrey
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: obviously fits that bill this week, So if anyone wants
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: to play it, I'm not going to be a post
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: to that whatsoever. It's just probably not gonna be where
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: I'm going to go because I don't think, yeah, look.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Is that good this week? And again focusing on the
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: fact that we're talking about single entry, you know specific
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: you know you can do. It's not that you can't
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: do that, obviously you can do that. Like he just said,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: you get him at a low ownership, you have the
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: opportunity for thirty five plus definitely, just like Alex has
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: not his spot this week, but you could do it.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: But I mean in a portfolio, I'm definitely mixing him in.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: Like somebody said, he could have ten catches this week,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: and that stuff can really rack up. He's completely different
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: than those around him, most that have somebody even if
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: they are going in that range. I'm not saying this
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: can be a higher ownership. It might be though, just
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: because it correlates with the Stroud stuff, but I think
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: more spending up all the way past a Chan and
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Robinson and those guys go to JT because he fits
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: the Higgins with with you know, Collins, with Stroud, with
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: all of that. So I think one thing interesting thing
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: about that, just talking about in how to leverage the
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: common build, just staying on that topic quickly is obviously
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: you could go to like JT and the defense, But
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: like I said earlier, I'd be fine with just the
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: defense because I don't I don't know that you know,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: going with Stroud, Collins, Higgins and adding Kirk or Schultz
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: and then adding you know, Alec Pearson the run back.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Is that a way to get different within the same game, Yes,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: because less likely people have those spots, but so many
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: of them are so similar, and I'm more likely to
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: bank on the fact that it doesn't go off or
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: is not needed than I am of trying to overstack
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: or you know, go extra on this one. I don't know,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: that's just my thoughts right now. Anything to add on
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: sort of the overstack within this most popular spot versus
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: trying to find ways to just avoid it and get
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: the points elsewhere.
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: So I think one thing I'll mention is I do
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: think Schultz will be somewhat popular, especially within Stroud stacks.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: But yes, if I were going that route, I would
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: be overstacking because what you're saying there is okay, Why
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: is why CJ Stroud separating Because they have to throw
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: the ball a game. They're able to do so pretty effectively.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: They're one game indoors. So like, the likelihood that Stroud
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: only supports two pass catchers is just fairly low, and
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: especially if you didn't want Nico Collins, like if you
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: went Stroud, Higgins, Kirk Schultz, that makes a lot of sense.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: The bringback is a little bit more complicated because I
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: kind of think like all of the Indianapolis guys are
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: either overpriced or slightly over owned just for the matchup.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: It is such a difficult matchup, and Indianapolis is such
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: a high powered offense that we really don't need them
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: to outproduce their expectations at all for Houston to be
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: pushed offensively to be in a situation where they have
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: to throw the ball. So it's a weird spot where
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: like I don't think the correlation is as strong as
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: usual to use a bringback. I probably would try to
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: use one regardless, but man like Larren's going to be
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: ten percent, Pierce is going to be around ten percent.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: Those are kind of the two guys that I would
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: have gravitated to. Otherwise low one guys seem like Pittman,
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Down, So maybe i'd go Downs into top.
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: He's the best forty two hundred guy just because he
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: catches a touchdown or something like that. But yeah, it's
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: a really kind of tough decision on who to bring
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: it back with. But I do think it's a fairly
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: straightforward decision that if you're going to use Stroud, you
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: should be triplesack.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: And that's too. I mean, we just saw JT last week.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: I said last week too, it's like you just you
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: can go bet it like if you want, Like even
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: the books don't have the face. He's eighty five and
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: a half is his rush prop right now, and he's
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred anytime touchdown, which for him has been
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: kind of worse. Right, it's actually been worse. I mean
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: it's been a you know, the Dodgs we've seen on
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: that have been a lot crazier. So it's like, if
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: you like it, you can get almost plus three hundred
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: on one hundred yards in at anytime touchdown him. You
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: could bet that still not need him in DFS and
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: get a nice little three to one action there. So
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: I think if you look at it from that perspective,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: just little things that I'm always considering is like I'm
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: not that scared of it, even though I get it,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: Like with the ownerships, it's just not going to be
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: something that I'm super high on in the stacks, like
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: I say, or whatever however the portfolio shakes out, but
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: for single entry, it won't be for me. It won't
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: be somewhere where I'm going.
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: There hit in a big way against a really good defense.
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: Already this year he had thirty two and a half
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: against Denver way back in Week two.
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: But since then he hasn't had many difficult matchups. But
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: fourteen point six versus the Rams, seven point seven versus Pittsburgh,
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: more on that in a little bit, and then eight
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: point six against Kansas City.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: So the defenses that are capable of really stopping an
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: explosive rusher so far have kind of.
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: Really helped him in check. With the only really big
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: game that.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: He's had against a great defense, it was that Denver
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: game all the way back in Week two.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: Man, the little don't think I don't hear those little
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: teasers that you put in there, and I know what
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: you're doing. You're cooking something up over there, and I
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: got something to go with that maybe, So we'll see.
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: That's gonna be fun when we get to the end.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: I do want to look at a few more spots though,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: before we get there. One that's been a common theme
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: throughout Wattle is getting a little bit of ownership. For sure,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: right I'm seeing it at least, you know, that's like
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: you know, even though a chen is as well, But
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: I'm actually not seeing many looking at two of that.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: That's almost a twenty four point team total at home
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: in Miami going against the Saints defense. I know that
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: it's the only been easier to run on them than
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: pass on them. But you do you see anything there
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: with just being able to leverage a chan, whether it's
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: with two together where it's forty nine hundred dollars like
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: two US cheap this week, and then you have Wattle,
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: and then you have Malik Washington, you got adult chitch,
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: you got those guys is or anything you're seeing there
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: where you can see this being a spot that people
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: you know can get away with or that you like
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: with the Miami Dolphins pass.
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: Attack, you know you have that like no Mahomes rule.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: I pretty much have a note to a rule, But
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: this does seem like a decent spot to try it
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: if you're ever gonna do it. Just kind of a
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: comical note here. I keep clicking on guys and like
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: looking through their stuff just to you know, have a
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: good response prepared. And every single guy I click on it,
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: I look through their results and by far their best
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: team came against Atlanta. So maybe maybe the move is
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: to go Tyron this week and finally get that Anni
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: mental breakout because they just keep allowing so much production
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: and so many ceiling performances from all kinds of different players.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: You don't gotta tell me with a good time, man,
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: Like the Bijeon stuff stands out to me, and I
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: just think that'd be a way to really speed this
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: game up quick. Everyone's always afraid of Tyler Lgiar and
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I get it. He gets in, but it's always the
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: same shit anyway. It's like if he gets the first touchdown,
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: everyone's tilted. But if Bijeon gets two and then Algier
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: gets one, it's like, man, how does this happen? It's
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: like it's just the same thing backwards. I always use
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: the golf thing, right, the bogie free round. I think
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: I've told you this one before, but it's like that
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: to me is the one that stands out. If somebody
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: makes a bogie then gets seven birdies, a streak and
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: an eagle, everyone praises them. If they get seven birdies,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: a streak and an eagle and then bogie the last hold,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: like what a poss This guy terrible lost the bogie
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: free round, Like what a loser. And it's like he
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: just put up the same score, just in a different outcome.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: So people always freak out at the end of the
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: day you can run on the Jets. I think it's
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: very possible that we see a good Bijon game and
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I kind of like overstacking Tyrod with his pass catchers.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: And again that's just my thoughts on that spot. Keep
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: going here. Another one that was brought up Alex is
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: the Trevor Lawrence games. I know, like for people that
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: don't know, in this segment, we're sort of going through
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: some of the combos that you can do in ways
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: to get different and that sort of stuff. That is
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: a bigger team total on the road for the Jags.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: It is Trevor Lawrence. You are accepting that risk, but
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: there is pass catching options there. So anything with that
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: stack in mind, And do you even need a run
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: back from Tennessee? Do you know you got to sort
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: of hope they do something to stay in this game
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: to make it go back and forth. But any thoughts
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: on this one.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: So when I'm doing ownership, one of the things that
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: I do is I asked myself like, first, are people
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: going to be interested in the spot?
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: And then are they going to be interested in the
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: actual place?
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: And I think that this is one where people are
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: going to be interested in the spot They're going to
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: see the price tag on Lawrence himself just fifty four
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars. They're going to see the matchup and they're gonna say, hey,
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: this could be something. And then I think they're gonna
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: look and they're gonna see Ryan Thomas is sixty two hundred,
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: Myers is up to fifty seven, Parker Washington is up
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: to fifty.
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: Four, and they're gonna say, oh, oh, I don't want that.
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: They've got like think about that.
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: They have three receivers more expensive than Quinn, Johnston and Gadson.
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: Who do we think people are going to be more
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: interested in playing. I think it's going to be q
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: Jay and Gadson. So I don't see a ton of
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: steam coming on Jacksonville. Maybe that's a reason to then
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: go play Jacksonville, because you know, if they hit in
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: the big way, it doesn't matter a ton that they're
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: sixty two, fifty seven and fifty four compared to if
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: they were fifty seven, fifty two and forty nine or
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: something like that. But I think they're too expensive. I
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: don't really like Trevor Lawrence. I just think he's not
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: that good of a quarterback. He makes a lot of
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: really good throws but also has a lot of misses.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: Kind of similar to Caleb Williams in that way, honestly.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: But the other issue here is.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: The main thing that we have seen from Jacksonville, especially
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: over the last few weeks, is they want to run
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: the ball. They want to be a heavy run first offense,
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: and they're running the ball pretty well. We need Tennessee
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: to push them for Lawrence to really hit, and what
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: are the odds that cam Ward pushes them considering they
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: actually have a good defense themselves.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: So this stack is definitely not for me. I'd have
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: more interest in going.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: To ETN or something like that, and I think eat
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: End's a decent play at sixty five hundred dollars.
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: The problem is we just don't know what the split
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: is gonna look like.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: If if we could confidently say that the split is
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: going to be as good for him as it was
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: last week, I'd be in on him. But it's just
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: so often like oh, now here's Tuton, and now Tuton's
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: getting all the red zone touches, and it's been really
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: tough with Etan and figuring them out. Last week seemed
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: like an operation where it was so heavily etn And
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: it might have just been because the first drive he
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: had I think it was a forty five yard run
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: and a receiving touchdown, and they just said, oh, I
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: guess he's the hot hand to day, and they stuck
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: with him all game.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: There's gonna be a couple spots like that. I mean,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: we get to Pittsburgh later, someone's mentioned already in the chat,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: but well, just go to Warren Well, then Gainwell has
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: been involved. Kind of depends on how the and the
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: other thing is too.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: The one that I always love to remind people of
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: is like, it's it's last week, it's all season, it's whatever.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: It's nothing to do with last week, has anything to
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: do with tomorrow? Right? It could it? Yes? In the end,
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: will you be able to lean back on it? See
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: I told you it was going to be this guy
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: because it was him last week. You could say that,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: but you don't know until it happens, right. That's that's
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: kind of the setup of at all people have thought
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: Loveland it was Comet. People would have thought it was
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: all Swift, not Mynung guy. But oh, Mynung guy was
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: in the mix.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: Two.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Swift had an awesome game. But so like Manunguay had
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: a great game. It's like you can see all kinds
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: of different guys show up with that. So from that perspective,
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: but I think it's definitely interesting, you know. And then
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: the other part when Kenny said this is you talked
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: about the prices of the wide receivers. They see like Gadson,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Quentin Johnston, they see Tyrod Taylor's pass catchers. They're like, man,
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: I could just play wide receiver ones and twos in
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: other spots that are still good and get away with
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: it for less. And then oh, by the way, Trevor
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: Lawrence Check's notes he sucks. Yeah, that's the key. So
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: they definitely remember that as well. What other spot was
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: I looking at? Somebody mentioned earlier the Donald spot with JSN.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: You kind of had your JASSN conversation already, but I
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: guess if you were going there and have no fault
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: of putting in, you know, Donald into the mix with it.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Like I mentioned, the interesting part is he's not really
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: getting dragged along. I feel similar like that about Stafford.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: The problem is, like the Stafford, I'll force it in
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: my portfolio because I'm fine with it. There's gonna be
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: it'll just make you more unique. But it's really hard
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: to get like him, Pooka Adams and a good lineup
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: and then picking the court if you wanted to run
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: it back, which Carolina guy, But most will just say ted, well,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: he's sixty one hundred, so it's not he's free or
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: anything like that. And you know it's tricky that way.
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: But obviously pairing Pooka up with Stafford could be good.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: And then just trying to see down the board here
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: you want to we could save the Bills and the
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: Steelers for after. Is there anything else that I'm missing,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Alex or any other spots you want to touch on quick?
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: I don't think so. Uh, let's see. I think we
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: we mentioned too a little bit.
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: I do think it's very viable to flip that and
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: go with Shuck, uh, pending a lave status, Like you know,
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: if if Alave actually misses his game, he's questionable with
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: a back injury. Back injuries can be a little bit tough.
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: If a Lave plays, Shuck has at least shown a
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: willingness to really throw the ball downfield. Juwan Johnson forty
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: two hundred dollars seems like a pretty solid play. And
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: the nice thing there is the correlations great because you
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: know whenever he does something, it's a touchdown, so you
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: know you're getting that for the quarterback too. The other
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: really nice thing is no Camara, so chances are they're
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: not going to be able to run the ball and
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: they're going to have to throw the ball, and Miami
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: is not a good defense, even though they've been out
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: performing expectations over the last few weeks. So I don't
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: think that's a bad route. It's also not going to
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: be like a super contrarian route. There are going to
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: be people who do that.
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: But yeah, this, you know.
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: The only other one that I think is worth mentioning
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: is I'm not totally opposed to going to brock Purty
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: and just saying, what if this offense at full strength
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: is good enough to beat whatever defense is on the field.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: And in this case, because I don't think they're going
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: to be able to run the ball against Cleveland, you know,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: maybe they get a bunch of explosives through the air,
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: So Kittle pierce all with Purdy. That's a little bit interesting.
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: The only problem is, like now you have to find
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: a a Cleveland guy to use as a bringback. But
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: there've also been people in my discord I know who
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: have have talked up Shoud or Sanders Stacks, which isn't
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: the craziest idea. The San Francisco defense has been really bad,
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: particularly since the Fred Warner injury. Were a little bit
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: better last week. But Sanders fan and Judy like or Tillman,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: it's not the worst idea I've ever heard. And again,
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: if you're ever gonna try something that seemingly ridiculous, this
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: is a good week to try.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: It's just so yeah, like I don't know, he's cheap
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: and so are all his guys, So it's like whatever,
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: you could just do it instead of Tyrod Taylor. It
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: just doesn't feel as good to people because you are
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: picking between some very random dudes, and like then you'll
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: then people get worried because they saw like Bond at
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: a decent game last game and things like that. Right,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: so you could definitely move it around that way. I
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: think it's like, if you want to do it, it's
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: probably just again, especially if you're doing in a single entry,
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: you're probably just saying I'm hoping I'm right, and you
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: go like Sanders, Judy Fannin and then probably see him
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: see and then near that's your length. You're saying, I'm
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: gonna go with. This is the game. These are the spots.
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: It's CMC, like they said, do they love them? Maybe
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: not their lane, but he is ten percent. Probably he
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: can put up thirty five plus he could just get
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: a bunch of checkdowns. It is a good matchup. I
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: would need Sanders and his squad to stay in it
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: for CMC to pay off and get to that ceiling. Therefore,
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: let's try it this way. That's that's the thought process
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: for me. But again not probably not where well, I
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: know not where I'm going in single injury at least,
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: so you can cross that one off.
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, to be clear, I'm way more interested in the
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: San Francisco side of things. The Cleveland defense. They're really
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: good in DVOA and EPA per play allowed, they're very
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: good in success rate allowed through the air. They are
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: below average, so they allow more than average explosive pass plays.
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: So if there's a way to beat them, it's the
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: explosive pass and Party gives that element to the offense
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: a lot more than Mac Jones like you could even
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: argue from a success rate standpoint, they're almost the exact
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: same quarterback, but the explosive pass is way way way
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: more likely with Perty in there, So it wouldn't it
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: wouldn't shock me if Party has something like, you know,
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: three hundred yards even though he's only thrown twenty five times,
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: and if three of those happened to be long touchdowns,
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: now you're really in business there.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: And we've seen games like that where it's like, you know,
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: that's Party's been a million micro WINNERWS for sure, where
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: it's just built like that. It's like, oh, he just
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: connected with that guy on a sixty yard touchdown, and
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: then he got another catch or too, and then he
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: connected with that guy, and it's like, not actually the
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: volume you would expect. It's it's what you talk about,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: is the explosiveness of the value of the volume, right,
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: the volume value, if you will, is what I'm gonna say.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Darren has one here. I'm curious your thoughts, but it says,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: would you be more inclined to play two running backs?
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: And he said same team. I thought it said same
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: game at first, and I was gonna have a conversation
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: around that. Clearly two very different things, but on a
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: ten game slate, would you still be like, I guess
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: it would be like gain Well and Warren together or
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: something along those lines. What's your thoughts on.
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: This Gamewell warrant. It's interesting you said that is the
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: one that came to my mind. The first one that
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: came to my mind actually was Montgomery Gibbs, and I
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: was like, well, they're not in the slate, but game
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: one Warren. It does make sense because Buffalo has been
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: such an incredible matchup for running backs. We've already seen
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: these guys get like fifteen and twenty points together. There
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: is a chance that they go for twenty and twenty
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: five and it's just a forty five point explosion from
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh running backs.
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: It is more doable, honestly, like this.
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: The only problem is, like I wish that Warren's price
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: had started to react to the gain Well usage more
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: than Gainwell's price reacted to the game all usage, right,
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: Like game Roll's up to fifty three hundred, but Warren's
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: still stuck up there at sixty three. If we had
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: seen Gainwell kind of let's see, like he was actually
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: fifty five last week, but forty one, forty three, forty
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: five to three weeks prior. If Gainwell was forty nine
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: hundred and Warren was now down to fifty five or
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: something like that, then I think it'd be a lot
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: more doable. But right now they're kind of both priced
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: as though they're going to get the better end of
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: the deal from the usage perspective.
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: So I don't I definitely don't love it.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: I think it's much better to choose between them, and
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: I don't have a strong feeling between them, but I
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: probably wouldn't play both.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I look at slate dynamics, and I mean, like
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: I said, when you get to a ten game lower scoring,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: I get where that angle of attack would be approached
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: drum and thought about. But I also thinks there's still
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: plenty running backs we can play on the slate. You know,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: it's not like you know, the three Gamer the other day.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: First of all, it's a smaller slate. It was bigger totals,
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: but there was like no running backs that people loved,
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: right There was only a few. And so if you
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: did end up going like a Gibbs Montgomery route, I
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: could see how you got there. And there's so many
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: value plays at wide receiver, et cetera, et cetera, even
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: shorter slate. All those factors matter, but when you still
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: have twenty teams to pick from, it's very unlikely thea
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: that you're gonna even get the stack that the running
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: back combo. I should say that is needed, get what
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: you need from them, and then have them correct in
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: the right place with all the other pieces that go
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: with it. From committing to it and single entry, you
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: got one shot, so I mean you better get the
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: other seven spots correct. I'll be looking to spread it
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: out and just find my way that way, all right.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: I don't see any other questions in here. I think
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: we plenty of different ways and game stacks and things
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: like that that you can go to. Are you ready
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: to go to your leverage lane? Anything else you want
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: to add before we get to it.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to ask you a question before we
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: get to the leverage lane. What's your take on Bucky Irving?
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: Because I'm seeing him now sub five percent and the
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: you know, the matchup is phenomenal with Arizona. They really
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: really can use the spart that he brings to this offense.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: And I thought the quote from I think it was
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: Todd Bowls was pretty interesting.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: But they said like.
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: We're gonna give Bucky the ball early and then we're
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: gonna see how he looks, and we're gonna go with
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: you know, the the hotthand from there between himself, Sean Tucker,
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: and or Show White. To me, that says, if Bucky
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: comes out and looks like his usual usual self early on,
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: that we could see like a fifty to sixty percent
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: total touch share from him, in which case he's got
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: as good a chance as any to break the slate,
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: does he not?
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: We will find out for certain on Sunday, because he'll
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: definitely be in the mix for sure, and you'll know
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: why in a moment.
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: So, well, how about that?
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: Well let leverage lane.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I can go first. Actually, at this point you've
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: segued us there. That's why the show is great. Sometimes
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: it goes this way. Here, here's the deal Baker is
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: going to play. They're talking about his protective padding and
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: all this different stuff. I actually think Bucky would be
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: a great guy to fit this mold as well. All
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: I really want in this game is to know if
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: both teams can push the pace, and I definitely think
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: they can. It is a high paced game from high
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: paced two high paced teams two very bad pass defenses.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: Rush defense is not that much better, to be honest.
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: The tricky part is figuring out which guy it's going
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: to be on the Bucks side. So I'm not gonna
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: commit to that, but I would love if one of
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: them would do something to keep up. I actually like
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: a pass catcher on that team, though, So my stack
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: is gonna be my leverage lane is gonna be on
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the opposite side with other guys coming back. He's already
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: been able to push the pace without them, you won't
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: get your cheap Michael Wilson's and whatnot anymore. But I'm
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: gonna stay with Brissette and I'm I don't know exactly
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: how I'm gonna fill it out yet because we were
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: waiting on news and how the lineup shakes out and
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: value l swear. But what I'm going to commit to
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: is Brissett and egg Buca together. That's the two. I
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: think Buka is in a good spot again. If the
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: tricky part of Baker is if he goes back out
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: or something like that. Now in the portfolio, I'm playing
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: Baker like I'm gonna definitely have him, But in my
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: single jury, I think whatever happens that in that game
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: can push it enough. It's a decent team. It's a
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: decent game, total decent team, totals good offenses that are
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: built together. Right, You've got opportunities pretty much across the board.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: They're mostly healthy now with the guys that are coming back.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: There's some running back situations with like Benson and de
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: Mercado and those guys. So I just think Brissett's gonna
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: be able to do enough open it up. I'm gonna
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: go to the Brissette side here and then useing Buka
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: on the run back. He's got a nice price sixty
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: five hundred right in there, and in the portfolio stuff
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I don't usually fully I mean just I'm gonna say
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: because I don't care, but I'm definitely gonna still play
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: Baker like Baker ag Buca Tes and then use you know,
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: somebody from the Arizona side on the opposite. And I
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: think you can still get to McBride here even with
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: the price boost, because tight end is not that strong
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: and a lot of the gads and stuff for guys
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: that we're talking about. We didn't talk about a ton,
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: but there's not a ton of good tight ends unless
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: you're just sort of pairing them up with their quarterbacks.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: So if you still want a guy that can break
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: the slate at tight end, it would be a guy
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: like Trey McBride. So I like the Bowers call you
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: had earlier. But yeah, I'm in Umbersett and Igbuka for
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: my spot here? What do you got?
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: I like this, I teased it a little bit on
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: going Josh Allen Stacks, and like you, I don't. I
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: don't know how I want to stack this just yet.
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of uncertainty. Part of the
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: problem is I don't even know yet a Keon Coleman's playing,
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: and this is a later game, so we might not
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: have that information in time. Luckily, a lot of these
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: guys are similarly priced. But man, there's a lot to
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: like here. So let's start with the obvious. We've talked
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: about it a ton this year. Pittsburgh boose's opponent play
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: volume more than anyone else, so we have Buffalo projected
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: for the for the most offensive plays on the slate
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: by a pretty comfortable march. The second thing is this
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh defense has allowed or has been really really good
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: at taking away It's explosive running games. James Cook has
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: been really explosive rushers so far this year. We just
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: saw them kind of shut down the Chicago running game.
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: Who my Eagles weren't able to do that, and they
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: shut down Jonathan Taylor in that running game. So when
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: they really prioritize stopping the run, they do it well.
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: And they forced their opponent to be pass heavy and
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: beat them through the air, where they're still going to
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: be a pretty good defense. They're still going to make
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: plays defensively, but they're also going to give up chunk
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: plays and they're going to give up a lot of
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: production through the air. We saw that in then Indianapolis game.
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: We saw that in the Chicago game. I think we
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: can see it again here, which with Josh Allen, we
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: were projecting quite a few explosive pass plays, and all
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: of these pass catchers are cheap, So you know, I
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: think I want to double this still for the correlation.
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: I really like either of the Pittsburgh running backs as
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: I bring back. Of course, we just see running backs
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: to the running back shred Buffalo right now. And these
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: pass catchers are so cheap, whether it's Josh Palmer, Keon
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: Coleman gave Davis Shavers. All these guys are mid three
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: k's Shakir fifty five hundred. I think is the one
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: that I really need to look into. He's basically all
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: yards after the catch, so I want to look into
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: how Pittsburgh is done after the catch. But from just
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: like a pure volume perspective, Shakir needs volume to get
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: there because he's not running those downfield routes. So it
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: helps that he's playing a team that gives up so
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: much pass volume. So I think Shakir has a good
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: chance of being in there. Kate will probably be in
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: there if he suits up and is a full go
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: forty five hundred dollars at the tight end position. But
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: I just love the idea on a slate where so
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: many people are playing bad quarterbacks and trying to correlate
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: and just try to find the one really cheap stack
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: that hits. There's a decent chance they all fail, and
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: you're telling me the one excellent quarterback on the slate,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: who is has been one of, if not the best
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: fantasy quarterbacks over the last three years, is going to
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: be low owned with cheap pass catchers. So it's not
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: like you're even paying way up for this as a whole.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: It just seems like a really big inefficiency to me.
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: And I'm going to try to play this slate through
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that. I like your call it too.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Like the fact of the pricing. We talk about this
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: all the time, how much it matters, but usually that's
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: an issue when you get to Josh Allen. Not only
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: is he expensive, but it's like who do I stack
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: them with and how much do they cost? This week?
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: We're getting them at very affordable prices. I thought originally
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: that you were gonna say James Cook, because I think
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: that's a pretty good spot too, at like seventy six hundred.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with it. I just that'll be probably more
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: of a portfolio play for me than in my single entry.
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: But just a note, I like that quite a bit.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: I love the Josh Allen stack though. I'm gonna have
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: a ton of that. Like I said, even if you
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: are playing a lot of lineups this week, instead of
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: having that fear of missing out and playing I'm always
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: a proponent of this anyway of not picking, like too
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: many quarterbacks is tightening up your pool. You could really
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: just take a stand this week and say what you
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: said is even though they're probably not all going to fail,
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: that's aggressive because there's a lot of games, but enough
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: of them are going to fail most likely. And then
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: it's no saying that everyone else who plays. The ones
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: that do get through are in the top five most
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: popular stacks. So there's less of those lineups that exist.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: There's less of them that are going to be correct
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: and come through. You can have a huge majority of
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: your lineups, even in portfolio play built around Josh Allen
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: in different combinations and hope to get one that sticks.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: And that's right. So no, just on the James Cook thing,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: I will add on there just if you're not getting
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: that stack and you want to get to him. He
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: has almost he has very similar props to Jonathan Taylor.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: So I mean, when you're talking about ninety eight hundred
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: versus seventy days, eighty eight and a half is like
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: the same for the rushing he's almost one hundred all
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: purpose with the receiving stuff that he can get, and
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: he's minus one twenty minus with thirty in places for
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: a touchdown. Jonathan Taylor of course minus two hundred, but
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: those touchdowns can come and droves for a guy like
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: Cook who sometimes gets one from a check down from
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: twenty yards out. That would also help Josh Allen. And
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: typically when we're looking at those two we may not
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: stack them just because the way Josh Allen can take
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: over at the goal line. But when it's seventy five hundred,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: seventy six hundred very cheap, like what fifty nine hundred
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: and below after that for Shakir and beat and below,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: then you could actually still get away with it on
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: a week like this, So that makes it somewhat interesting
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: as well. I also might man, I might want. I
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: might change mine here at the very end in a
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: slight way, just saying it, because I went back and
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: looked at some of the preliminary I might not commit
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: to Igbuca because what I'm but I'm gonna flip the
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: commitment to McBride. I am gonna play Brissett and McBride
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: overpay for McBride. It's just because some lineups will have tes,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: some will have Igbuca. My single entry, I'm not sure
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: it'll be a combination of like two v two's and
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: how that looks in the end, but I will commit
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: to McBride instead. It's an even bigger price commitment now
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: that I'm putting in on it. So it's it's Brisset
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: and McBride for me. If Agbuca works, I love it.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: If it doesn't in that one, I end up going
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: to tes or something like you said, whether you want
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: to go to the running back position or something else there,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: I'll go to that, But definitely in on Brisett and
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: McBride for sure. All right.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: I like that that change.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, m McBride looks like he's going
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: to be really under owned this week, so I think
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: it's a it's a really good call and you're just saying, well,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: I keep All he needs to do is keep doing
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: what he's been doing, and he's gonna pay off for
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: you in a big way. I want to make one
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: more point on on the James Cook thing. This is
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: about like the way that Pittsburgh has defended and it's
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: not just the games I mentioned. You can also look
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: at the Green Bay game, right like Josh Jacobs was
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: held to thirteen for thirty three Jordan Love throw thirty
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: seven times for three hundred and sixty yards and three touchdowns. Pittsburgh,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: especially in the second half of the season, they have
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: approached teams to the really strong run game with the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: mindset of we're not going to let them run the
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: ball against us. And we know that Buffalo like when
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: they do what they want to do offensively, it's run
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: the ball. Joe Brady wants to run the ball. And
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: so I'm very much like making the prediction that Pittsburgh
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: takes that approach in this game and actually forces Josh Allen,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: one of the best fantasy quarterbacks, to drop back as
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: often as Pittsburgh can possibly make him drop back.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: So it's just a weird situation right now.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: Where like obviously the best thing for Josh Allen fantasy
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: wise and for the Bills fantasy wise, is for him
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: to throw the ball out or at least it dropped
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: back a lot. Maybe he ends up scrambling with it.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: But from a football perspective, their passing game just isn't
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: very good right now because the receivers are bad. Their
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: run game is really good because James Cook and the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: offensive line are already good enough, but also you have
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: the threat of Allan keeping the ball. So their run
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: game has been really hard to stop. And I think Pittsburgh,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: based on what they have done against every other similar
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: offense of late I just really think they're going to
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: commit to putting the ball in Allen's hands in a
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: drop back situation and really trying to take James Cook
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: out of things, which all teams like Miami was able
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: to do so Pittsburgh, who has been able to do
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: it every single time they've prioritized it.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: I think they'll be able to do it here.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, love the call. I think it's a good spot.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: What else are you go going on this week, Alex
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: and beyond? Just let the people know where they can
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: find you, everything else you're doing at the moment, and
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: then we'll get to the final stuff and get out
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: of here.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: Running a pretty cool promotion over on my discord. It's
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: twenty percent off either your first month or the year,
• 1:04:01
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  Speaker 3: kind of show that you and I have been doing.
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  Speaker 3: So it's been a blast all season and looking forward
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  Speaker 3: to finishing out the season strong.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so with some good weeks ahead of us. I
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  Speaker 2: thought the bonus show this week is awesome. Our guy Ryan,
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  Speaker 2: big EVR fan by the way. You know, you can't
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  Speaker 2: love having Alex as a resource. He is so smart,
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  Speaker 2: explains things easily, much like Tambo does in terms of strategy.
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  Speaker 2: Knew him from golf shows, but man, he is just
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  Speaker 2: so smart and seems like a great dude. I agree,
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  Speaker 2: and that's why I like to do a business with
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  Speaker 2: him and working with him on these shows. So hopefully
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  Speaker 2: we can continue to bring you these This is a
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  Speaker 2: lot of fun going through it with you guys every
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  Speaker 2: single week. Make sure to check out Alex on X
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  Speaker 2: and then go check out his discord as well. Over
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