Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 182 - 12/13/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 182 - 12/13/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 182 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
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end. We got a huge weekend of sweats
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ahead of us guys, and we got a lot to get to on today's
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podcast. Not as much tonight, but more
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looking to the weekend because I do have a three pack of sweats
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for you tonight, including two college basketball plays. 1 is a
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very, very heavily back game with a good sharp reverse line
0:55
move. The other is a very low bit
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obscure sharp line move, both with some pretty good rhythm
1:00
edges. And then one play in the NBA, if
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you remember a couple nights ago, we looked toward a total
1:05
that was very high, got bet up, and it was an opportunity to go
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contrarian, sell high and take the under.
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So I got another one of those for you tonight.
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So a three pack overall in both college and pro basketball.
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Then looking toward the weekend, I got to play in the UFC for
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you. A little bit of biting in the
1:21
arena with a great bet split, a great fade, the trendy dog
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opportunity, a huge youth advantage and a biter or fighter
1:29
who has some great home field homecourt home Octagon
1:32
advantage. This guy's from Tampa and the
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UFC Saturday slate is in Tampa at the Lightning Stadium.
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So play in the UFC and then going to look toward a Army Navy
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play for you. You may know where I'm leaning
1:46
here, but I've been waiting for this number to appear or to
1:49
reappear and it did. So I think it might be time to
1:51
pounce on Army Navy with a great military Matt Academy matchup
1:56
system match. And then for the NFL, remember
1:59
last week I told you I didn't really love the board.
2:01
I kind of love the board this week.
2:02
So I have 5 bets in pocket that I've placed and there's one more
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that I like, but I'm waiting on because I'm waiting for a key
2:08
number here. It's juiced up and we're in a
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big contrarian side, but I want to wait and try to get that key
2:13
number. So a lot to talk about on
2:14
today's podcast, episode 182 of the All Systems Go Sportsbang
2:19
pod. Now looking back toward last
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night, guys, I thought we were escaping the darkness, had a
2:25
winning night on what was that Wednesday and then guess what
2:28
went right back into the abyss O and 3 -, 3 units.
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It's getting frustrating out there. 49ers couldn't come
2:35
through. Obviously that was frustrating
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because we beat the closing line, had all those fantastic
2:40
money line straight up trends and betting systems for Thursday
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Night Football. Niners just can't get anything
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going, can't score. They lost 12 to six.
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Should add the under there. That wouldn't have been a sweat.
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The one that really hurt, though, and this really is a
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microcosm of just the situation we've been in for over the past
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week. It's not like we're getting
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blown out. It's like, how can you hurt me
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even more tonight? George Kittle, man, over 61 1/2
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receiving yards. Where did he land 61?
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If that doesn't tell you what kind of, you know, just awful
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luck we've been dealing with recently.
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I don't know what does. I'm kicking myself a little bit
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because I, I remember mentioning on the pod yesterday that George
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Kittle had different numbers across the board.
3:22
So I want to say I think it was over 60 1/2, but it was juiced
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-125 there was an over 59 1/2 juice -130 and I said let's save
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the juice. He'll go over that number
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anyway, like an idiot. I should have paid a little more
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juice. Got that over 60 and 1/2 / 59
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1/2 because again, lands on 61. And that's the second time in
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the last couple days, last week or so, I remember having Bryce
3:47
Young over 191 and 1/2, he lands 191.
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George Kittle over 61, 1/2, he lands 61.
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So sometimes it hurts so much. All you can do is just smile,
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laugh, and move on. But boy, was that just just, I
4:01
don't know, just a great example of the situation we've been in
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recently. And then to make matters worse,
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because you know the the gambling gods are treating us so
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poorly recently, Iowa, the Hawkeyes got them plus 5 1/2.
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They ended up closing at +5 at some shops.
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Another CLV play, they're up 7 at the half, they're up two with
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four minutes left. They completely implode down the
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stretch, lose by 9. So again, 5 1/2 crews in the
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whole time. They lose at the very end and
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don't cover the number. That was also just brutal.
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So I'm not going to sugarcoat it, guys just can't get a break
4:36
here recently. But as always, we're in it for
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the long haul. Sometimes this happens.
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You have a bad day, bad couple days.
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We've had pretty much a bad week, but we can't let that kind
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of, I don't know, just skew our, our, our approach, our mindset.
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We got to stick with it, continue to flap that and
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sometimes we're red hot, sometimes you're ice cold.
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Unfortunately, we're ice cold right now, but we're just going
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to stick with it. Keep grinding and hopefully our
5:00
our luck will turn. I do want to mention it looks
5:03
like I'm turning a few of you, a few of you on to the UFO
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situation or UAP or drone situation in, in New Jersey.
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I noticed last night CNN and a lot of the major news channels
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actually started talking about this.
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So my sister who lives in Jersey said, do you want to come visit
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me and see these lights for yourself?
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So I'm, I may actually, I don't know, go on the ground and
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figure out what's going on there.
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There were reports of a drone that fell in someone's backyard.
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The crazy thing is you don't know what to believe and what
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not to believe just because there's so much misinformation.
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But I had a bunch of you guys DM me, a few of you who actually
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live in Jersey and have told me, yeah, people in Jersey freaking
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out don't know what it is. I said who thinks it's aliens?
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Who thinks it's the government? And he said it's pretty much
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5050. Half think it's aliens, half
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think it's the government. It's probably the government.
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But again, they say it's not our stuff, it's not an adversary
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stuff. So then whose is it?
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But that's something that I don't know well, I think the,
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the kind of intersection here is like I'm ice cold and sports
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betting. So I kind of need something to
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not make me fixate on all these losses here recently.
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So of course I've I don't know, I've taken a a little bit of a
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side note, something to distract me from my losing bets, which is
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this situation there in New Jersey.
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But there was a great headline. I tweeted it, but it was it was
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basically a New York Post article which had a great,
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great, great title on it. It made me laugh.
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The title was, let me just pull it up here so I get it exactly
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right. The title was close Encounters
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of the Turnpike. So that was pretty funny. close
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encounters of the Third kind. Anyway, no more drone talk
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unless I have some updates and I'll tell you.
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So let's get back to our winning ways, hopefully.
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Say a prayer. Do whatever you can for the
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slump Buster again, guys, it's like how, how is it?
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How are how are these? How are these breaks?
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The weird thing is the brakes are all going against us.
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Like at least you think the brakes are maybe 5050 or you
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know, you have a terrible bad beat, but maybe another team
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comes through for you. Nope, it's just everyone letting
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us down. So let's see if we can stick
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with it and get some winners here for tonight.
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So I want to start off with some college basketball.
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Got a couple college hoops games for tonight that caught my eye.
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Let's start off with a big one. This is 8:00 Indiana and
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Nebraska. Now looking at this one, we have
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Indiana coming in eight and two. They've won four straight, just
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beat Minnesota 8267 covered as a nine and a half point home
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favorite. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers 6 and
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2, they just saw their three-game winning streak
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however come to an end. They got rolled by Michigan
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State 8952 last time out did not cover as a 7 point Rd. dog.
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What have we seen across the market here?
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Well, good sharp movement toward Nebraska.
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Cornhuskers open this game as low as -2 1/2 at home.
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They're now up to -4 and some shops even up to -4 1/2.
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So it's pretty clear the line is going toward the Cornhuskers.
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What's really interesting is that it's kind of a fade the
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trendy dog play. Currently across the betting
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market, you're getting upwards of 55%, almost 60% of bets
8:00
taking the points with Indiana. Yet the line keeps moving toward
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Nebraska. So if slight majority bets are
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going Indiana, that plus 2 1/2. Why are the odds makers now
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saying, oh, you like the Hoosiers?
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2 1/2? How about 3?
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How about four? How about four and a half line
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keeps going to Nebraska even though Publix on Indiana tells
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me we got a great reverse line move opportunity to go against
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the public and most heavily back game the night and back the
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Cornhuskers. Now the Cornhuskers have a 2 day
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rest advantage. They last played on December 7th
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versus Indiana Blast playing on December 9th.
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I kind of like that rest advantage, but also, you know,
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they're coming off that blowout loss against Michigan State.
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So not only are you rested, but you're probably in the gym.
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You're stewing over that loss. You want to get back out there
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and hopefully get a win. Nebraska is five and O at home.
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On the other hand, for Indiana, this is their first true Rd.
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game. Nebraska does have some good
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advantages here. Better defensive efficiency,
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33rd in the country versus 51 for the Hoosiers, and they take
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better care of the ball. They're 65th in fewest turnovers
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per game versus 286th for Indiana.
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So I'm going to play Nebraska. I was a little hesitant of
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laying 4/4 and 1/2, so I did play a money line player.
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It's a little bit hefty actually.
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Was doing that TikTok live stream for Rhythm the other day.
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And someone said, do you have like a line of demarcation in
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terms of money lines? And I kind of said I don't like
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to go above -200 this one's it's creeping up there.
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I did find a -, 175 on Nebraska. Some shops are closer to -185
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some shops are -190 So it's a great test case of shopping for
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the best line, finding that best price.
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But I believe Caesar's is offering a -, 175 S.
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Again, Betras not bet to win. It's one unit trying to get a
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little kind of a little bit more than 1/2 unit back about 3/4 of
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a unit, 2/3 of a unit. That's my play here tonight.
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Let's go Cornhuskers, let's Shuck some corn.
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Let's go Nebraska. Now a really tiny game.
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Weber State against Utah Tech. There's a late night game, nine,
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9:00 PM Eastern Time. Weber State comes in four and
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six. They've lost two in a row, just
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lost to North Dakota 80 to 75, lost outright as a 2 1/2 point
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Rd. favorite. Similarly, Utah Tech 2 and 9,
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they've struggled. They've dropped three straight,
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just got crushed by Utah State 92 to 62 did not cover as a 24
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1/2 point Rd. dog. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, even though it's a low
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back game, it's not nearly as popular as Indiana, Nebraska.
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So we looked at that low bet obscure sharp line move which is
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coming in on Weber State. Weber State open -2 1/2 on the
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road, they're up to -3 -, 3 1/2. So pretty clear here that one
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sided movement has gone toward Weber State at circa.
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Weber State is getting 75% of bets but over 90% of dollars.
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So the wise guys out in Vegas like Weber State here on the
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spread, but also if you look at the money line, you are getting
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an opportunity here to mitigate some risk here, which is what
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I'm doing. So I got Weber State at around
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-145 some shops are closer to -150 but Weber State has a bunch
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of advantages. They are the better offensive
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efficiency team, 198 versus 293, better defensive efficiency, 246
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versus 274. They have a better field goal
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percentage, 45% versus 40%, but are three-point shooting, 31%
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versus 28%. And again, if it's close and we
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need to win this game, which boy do we need to win right now?
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They are better at the free throw stripe, 71% versus 66666%.
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And we do have rhythm predicting Weber State -3.7, which again, 3
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1/2 is the current number. But I'm going money line here.
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Let's mitigate some risk. Weber State, can you win this
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game for us? I'm actually, I was actually one
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game that I laid off. And this is how you know you're
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cold. Not only are you losing the bets
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that you make, but the bets that you like and for whatever
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reason, get scared and layoff, of course, those wins.
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So last night I was looking at Tennessee Chattanooga -1 1/2 to
12:00
-2 and a very similar to end up winning the game.
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I lay off of course. So makes it makes it even hurt
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hurt a little bit more. But it looks like Weber State is
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very similar to Chattanooga yesterday, just as a short Rd.
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favorite that became more of a favorite.
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So Weber State around -150 Nebraska around -182 money line
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bets for tonight. Let's go Nebraska, let's go
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Weber State. Now over to the NBA one game
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here that is reminiscent to a game a couple nights ago that we
12:27
were able to get in terms of that total that was opening very
12:30
high, got bet up even higher, provided an opportunity to sell
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high and go under. System match tonight, Wizards
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Cavaliers under 232 1/2. Now this Wizards Cavaliers game
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opened around 23231. We've seen it now get bet up to
12:45
232 1/2. So it's gone up, you know, about
12:48
one or two points here, but now it creates an opportunity to
12:51
sell high and take that under. And the first thing I like about
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this under is it's a big spread under.
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So the Cavaliers are favored by 17 points at home against the
13:00
Wizards. Now why is that important?
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Because if I'm playing an over, I want a short spread close to a
13:06
pick em competitive back and forth.
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They keep they kind of keep scoring.
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Maybe you get OT when you let when you play an under, you want
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a big spread like you know, double digits, 10 or more.
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This one is obviously -17 but the whole point being is that if
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the Cavs are up by 20 points in the fourth quarter, 25 points,
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you take your foot off the gas, the Wizards throw in the towel,
13:26
you dribble out the clock, you don't continue to force the
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offense. So that's something you see just
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from a game script standpoint. Also, some angles here for the
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under, the Washington Wizards are dead last in offensive
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efficiency. 30th Cleveland, by the way, is number 8 in
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defensive efficiency. And here's my favorite system.
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Match home favorites of 12 points or more.
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The under in those games is 18 and 1260%.
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And that really speaks to the fact of a big spread under.
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Get up big, take your foot off the gas.
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I did notice there's a lot of injuries for the Wizards in this
14:00
one, so they're down a bunch of players.
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Kuzma is probably the biggest one here.
14:04
But just a laundry list of injuries.
14:07
You do have some under refs. Couple refs here, Fraher, Sago
14:12
and Sterling around 5152% of the under.
14:15
But I said, hey, is this like a 120 to 99 game, 127 to one O 1,
14:22
something like that? I'm hoping that it is.
14:24
I'm going to play this Wizards Cleveland under 232 1/2.
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So Wiz Cleveland under 232 1/2. Nebraska and Weber State on the
14:32
money line. Now let's go to some UFC, some
14:35
biting in the arena and we are going to look at a match up here
14:40
between Billy Quaranteo or Quarantillo Quaranteo and Cub
14:45
Swanson. Now let me just rehash it for
14:48
those of you who are maybe new to the pod or haven't swat a
14:51
bunch of USC with us. We're trying to do is bet with
14:54
our head and not our heart by looking at two things.
14:57
One, the tail, the tape, how old each fighter is, how tall they
15:00
are, the length of their reach. And then combine that with the
15:03
betting market, what the betting market is telling us, ideally
15:06
low bets, higher dollars in a line move.
15:08
So I landed on Billy Quaranteo, Billy Q let's go.
15:12
Billy Q. Now it's not a huge line move.
15:15
He opened around -150 he's pretty much stayed around -150
15:19
some shops are around -160 but here's a couple things that I
15:23
noticed in favor of Billy. Q1 are my buddy at Bet MGM, John
15:28
Ewing sent this to me this morning, which I always look
15:31
forward to on a Friday. The bet splits.
15:34
Billy Q is only getting 41% of bets, but 55% of dollars.
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So he's contrarian, low bets, higher dollars.
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Then we get to the tail of the tape.
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He's 36 years old, might sound old, right?
15:47
However, his opponent, Cub Swanson is 41 years old.
15:52
So fade fighters who are 40 or older, fade fighters who are
15:56
five years older than their opponent or or older, That's a
15:59
big youth advantage. You wouldn't think a 36 year old
16:01
has a big youth advantage, but actually Cub Swanson is now 41.
16:06
Billy Q is 1 inch taller, 5/8 versus 5 seven.
16:08
Now they both have about a 70 inch reach, but the combination
16:12
of the low bets, higher dollars bet split and the big youth
16:15
advantage, 36 years old versus 41.
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Those are the two biggest kind of variables that that really
16:21
made me look toward Billy Q. But here's where it gets a
16:24
little bit more interesting. Significant strikes per minute.
16:28
We talked about this stat a lot. This is stat that I've come to
16:30
really value because unless you're going to, you know, choke
16:33
out or knockout somebody, then it's going to go to the
16:36
scorecards and the judges are going to be kind of influenced
16:39
by how much offensive production you put out there.
16:42
How many, you know, kicks, you know punches, How many times can
16:46
you take down the other guy. If one, if one fighter is doing
16:49
it a lot and the other one is doing it a lot less, typically
16:52
they're going to get rewarded on the scorecard.
16:54
So big advantage for Billy Q and significant strikes per minute.
16:57
7.36 versus 4.67 for Cub Swanson, striking accuracy 56%
17:04
versus 50%. And then a little added
17:08
motivation for Billy Qi. Was reading about this, but
17:10
Billy Quaranteo is from Tampa, FL.
17:14
Where is this UFC Fight Night located?
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Tampa, FL. So he's coming off a loss.
17:20
He got a rear naked choke. That's a great band name for
17:23
your naked choke, but he's coming off a rear naked choke
17:26
loss. Now he's at home in front of his
17:28
friends and family, motivated to perform well in front of the
17:31
home crowd and then also to bounce back after getting choked
17:34
out. So I'm going to go Billy Q home.
17:37
Octagon advantage, youth advantage, low bets, higher
17:40
dollars, more offense, more accurate.
17:42
Shop around. I got Billy Q at -150 let's go
17:46
Billy Quaranteo. Now over to some college
17:50
football. Now, it's not a regular college
17:53
football slate for tomorrow, but we do have a huge game.
17:56
Army Navy now, even if you don't love college football, this is
18:00
just a great game to watch the spectacle of it all, the
18:03
tradition. Obviously, they've been doing
18:05
this forever and it's pretty cool to kind of see the you
18:09
know, the the midshipmen, the the soldiers.
18:12
I'm probably getting their correct names wrong, but
18:14
everyone in the crowd this one is located, I want to say is it
18:18
at the it's Landover, MD. So that's what that is, the
18:24
Commander Stadium. Yeah, I believe so.
18:26
Northwest Stadium. But anyway, should be a great
18:29
game. We did see a line move toward
18:31
Army. They open as low as -4 1/2 -, 5.
18:35
Some early openers were like -3 now they got all the way up to
18:38
-7 Now it's coming back down 6 1/2, six.
18:42
But I'm focused on the total now.
18:45
If you maybe were familiar with me over the years, this is a
18:50
system match that you don't think too much about.
18:52
You play it. And it's been really, really
18:54
good. I want to say it's like 15 and
18:56
one the last 16 times or like 14 and two or something insane, but
19:01
it is the Military Academy under system match.
19:05
So Army, Navy, Army comes in 11 and one ranked 22nd, Navy 8 and
19:10
three. Now, typically in these
19:12
matchups, the under does very, very well, but it's not just
19:15
like a random thing. You the whole point being, and I
19:19
have this kind of argument with people all the time, like trends
19:21
versus system matches. Trends can come and go.
19:24
You know, think about like fashion trends.
19:26
When I was in high school, people love Jinko jeans and you
19:29
know, having a Walkman, you know, those came and went.
19:32
No one wears bell bottoms anymore.
19:34
Things that were popular at one time maybe lose their
19:37
popularity. And you look at them now and you
19:39
cringe like how did I wear those huge Jinko jeans in my air
19:42
walks? And I remember now you're
19:44
getting me back to high school. But everyone would wear
19:47
basically like those, those chain chain wallets and then
19:51
like a necklace with those like metallic balls on them.
19:53
And then you, you spike your hair.
19:55
I mean, you're making me think back to my, my just my just
19:59
embarrassing high school days. But my whole point being is
20:02
trends can come and go. Betting systems with a theory
20:05
behind them can last. So the point being, why do you
20:08
like to play unders when Army and Navy play each other?
20:11
Well, the first part is the style of play.
20:14
They both run the ball a lot. So when you run the ball a lot,
20:17
the triple option. That benefits the under because
20:19
the clock keeps rolling. These games are pretty quick.
20:22
These aren't like 3-4 hour games.
20:24
They can be like 2 1/2 hour games because you're not
20:26
throwing it a lot and you're running it so defensively.
20:29
You practice against the run, so you kind of know what's coming
20:33
and you let the clock continue to roll.
20:35
So that's why we've seen these Military Academy unders do very
20:38
well historically. Now in terms of this specific
20:40
matchup, I noticed that it opened around 40 and at one
20:44
point it got down to 38 1/2. And a bunch of people like DM me
20:49
and said, like, you know what's up with the Military Academy
20:51
under? You're not playing Army Navy
20:52
under. And I said, you know what?
20:55
I didn't get it in time, so I'm going to sit back and see if it
20:57
creeps back up. I'm holding out for a 40.
21:00
There was there some 39 1/2 yesterday?
21:03
Excuse me? And I was saying, hey, let's
21:05
hold out for a 40. Get as close to that opening
21:07
triggering number as we can and boom, Shakalaka woke up today.
21:12
There's a couple books at 40. Now there's still some 39 1/2's
21:15
out there, but I found under 40 at Caesar's and I want to say
21:20
DraftKings or FanDuel might have it as well.
21:22
So I put in the under 40. Now let's layer in a few other
21:25
things. This is a pretty good bet.
21:26
Split play at DraftKings, only 38% bets, but 49% dollars around
21:31
the under. The other angle here is it's a 3
21:33
o'clock game. It's on CBS.
21:35
There's really no other games competing against it, so it's
21:37
going to be extremely heavily bet.
21:39
Majority of bets are going to go over because the public wants to
21:42
see points. So we're contrarying and heavily
21:43
back game, low bets, higher dollars at circa, sharper wagers
21:48
out in Vegas, 63% bets, 74% dollars on the under and then
21:52
you'll get the pace of play. This really goes to the point of
21:55
rooting for an under. Pace of play.
21:57
How many plays do you run? What's your tempo?
21:59
How quick are you? These are two of the slowest
22:01
teams in college football. Army is ranked 122nd and pace of
22:05
play. Navy is ranked 132.
22:08
You might be asking yourself how many, how many teams are in
22:11
Division One 134. So you literally have two of the
22:15
slowest teams in all of college football going against each
22:19
other. So very slow run the ball can
22:22
train in a heavily back game. We waited out for a key number
22:24
here, not a three or seven, but at least the best or closest
22:27
triggering number to when it got hit at the beginning.
22:31
So I'm playing the under. I put an Army Navy under 40.
22:35
What do you what do you think? Maybe a 20 to 17 game.
22:39
How about that cash, that one. Now over to the NFLI.
22:43
Told you I like the NFL slate this weekend.
22:46
And boy, do we need some winners because the betting gods are are
22:50
just so cruel recently. But anyway, I put in some bats
22:53
here. First one, I'm going to take the
22:55
Jaguars in the points. Jaguars are at home against The
22:58
Jets. This is a very important
23:00
situation where you got to get the hook.
23:02
So I got Jaguars plus 3 1/2 that is available at some shops, with
23:06
some shops are also down to three.
23:08
But a couple things to like about the Jaguars here.
23:10
Number one, no one wants to play them.
23:12
They're only 28% of bets at DraftKings, 35% of bets at
23:15
Circa. However, this game open around
23:20
-3 three and a half. And all these 3 1/2's are really
23:22
juiced toward Jackson like it's getting back down toward 3.
23:26
So I said, hey, let's grab the hook while we can.
23:28
And the last two weeks Jags have COVID numbers number.
23:31
Against Houston, they're plus 3 1/2 lost by three last week
23:35
against Tennessee there plus 3 1/2 lost and actually won that
23:38
game. Then fading The Jets again.
23:41
They've been a dumpster fire here and I don't know how much
23:44
added motivation they have down the stretch.
23:45
Briefs Hall is also banged up. A lot of injuries for The Jets
23:48
and a bunch of system matches here with conference home dogs
23:51
getting 4 or less as well as contrarian home dogs with a low
23:56
total. Total on this one is only 40 1/2
23:58
or 40. So I put in Jags, believe it or
24:00
not, plus 3 1/2. Rhythm has Jags plus 2.6.
24:04
So if you're playing the Jags, you got to get the hook.
24:07
Here's another game that I played much earlier in the week,
24:09
Carolina Panthers. I love Carolina here.
24:12
I noticed this dog to fave line move very early, so I've been
24:14
sitting on this one for a while, but they actually opened about a
24:17
one or 1 1/2 point dog against Dallas and now they flipped all
24:20
the way to -2 1/2 - 3. So really good opportunity here,
24:25
dog to fave to back Carolina, Good bet splits at DraftKings
24:29
42% bet, 77% dollars on the money line, 47% bet, 69% dollars
24:36
and circa 36% bets, 93% dollars on the money line for Carolina.
24:42
They also have a rest advantage as the Cowboys are on a short
24:44
week and they've been playing better as the late with Bryce
24:47
Young covering some numbers here recently.
24:49
So I think it's a good opportunity to go dog to fave
24:51
and play Carolina. Shop around.
24:53
You're looking at Carolina if you haven't bet it yet around
24:55
-150 Next one for you, Buffalo, Detroit.
25:00
Now, I was worried that the Lions would be really, really
25:02
popular because the Lions pretty short.
25:04
It's only lions -2 and half against Buffalo.
25:07
But I noticed that they're not that popular currently at Circa,
25:11
only 46% of bets, but 82% of dollars are going with Detroit
25:16
and that DraftKings, it's closer to 5050.
25:18
But Detroit open around -2 one point it got down to -1 1/2, but
25:23
now it's back up to 2 1/2 and it's just up like it may go to
25:26
three. So all this late breaking
25:27
movement is going with the Lions.
25:29
It's a great value play if you ask me.
25:31
Like how, how often are you going to get the Lions at home?
25:34
The Dan Campbell Lions laying less than a field goal.
25:38
I actually dug this up. But Detroit straight up at home
25:42
the last two years, 12 and three.
25:44
They play great in that building.
25:46
It's a bit of a schedule advantage is the third straight
25:48
home game for Detroit. Buffalo second straight Rd.
25:50
great Rd. game and it is a rest first tired because Detroit
25:54
played on Thursday night and Buffalo played on Sunday.
25:57
So I money lined the Lions got him at -134 at FanDuel.
26:02
Let's go Lions, another bet for you.
26:04
Another game where you got to get the hook or wait it out for
26:08
the hook. Indianapolis Colts.
26:10
I'm going Colts here guys. Now they're off a by.
26:12
Denver's also off a by, but Colts opened at Denver as high
26:16
as like plus 5 + 5 1/2 even at one shop.
26:20
Now the sign is down to four and a half and even 4.
26:23
So ESPN bet is offering the hook right now.
26:26
I jumped on Colts plus 4 1/2 at -115.
26:30
Colts are only getting 25% of bets yet the lines moving their
26:32
direction and if you look at some system matches here.
26:36
Wrote about this for vsin.com and I'll have a sharp report for
26:39
tomorrow. Probably college hoops than NFL
26:41
on Sunday, but Rd. dogs been good this year.
26:44
They're 54%, nothing crazy, but Rd. dogs getting four more have
26:48
been even better. And this is also a good rhythm.
26:51
Edge rhythm has Colts plus 3.1 and another system match plus
26:55
2.6. So again, that hook could be
26:57
critical. You lose by 4, you want to
26:59
cover, but ESPN bets got it right now.
27:01
Plus 4 1/2. That's what I'm playing for.
27:03
Colts, Denver, Patriots, Arizona Cardinals plus 6 1/2.
27:08
I'm going Patriots here. Give me the 6 1/2 of the Pats.
27:11
Some reverse line movement. Arizona open -7 This line at one
27:15
point got down all the way to like 5.
27:17
It's come back up now to six or 6 1/2.
27:21
So I'm waiting out for the best number and it looks like 6 1/2
27:23
might be that best price. Patriots are very unpopular.
27:27
They are only getting across the board upwards of I think 36% of
27:31
bets at DraftKings. But they're coming off a buy
27:34
rested, ready to go here. Rhythm has Patriots plus 3.9 as
27:40
well as another Angle plus 5.1. And then if you get into some of
27:43
these system matches, Rd. dogs 4 1/2 or more, 55% ATS this year.
27:47
And Kyler Murray, the guys great as a favorite or sorry, great as
27:51
a dog covering like 60% of the time, favorite only 38% of the
27:55
time. So is that a Cardinals win by 6,
27:58
Cardinals win by 4, Cardinals win by three.
28:01
I'm still rooting for my under 4 1/2 Patriots win total, but I
28:05
feel like that's kind of a good value play to to really shop,
28:07
find that hook. And again, Fanduel's got it
28:10
right now. I got Pats plus 6 1/2 and then
28:13
the one game that I haven't bet yet, but I'm waiting on Seattle
28:16
Seahawks. Seahawks at home Sunday night
28:18
against Green Bay. Now.
28:20
Reason why I'm waiting is I need the three on the Seahawks.
28:22
This game opened Seattle -2 1/2 - 3.
28:26
Those two and a halfs at one point got up to three and now
28:28
the threes are all down to 2 1/2.
28:30
There was no book offering a three right now, but pretty much
28:33
every book was juiced toward Green Bay.
28:35
So Green Bay -2 1/2 -, 115. So between now and Sunday at
28:40
8:20 PM Eastern Time, I'm holding out for the three.
28:43
Once the three pops up, like like a like a meerkat popping up
28:48
or Gopher out of a whole Groundhog Day.
28:50
Whatever analogy you want to make.
28:51
Once that pops up, whack a mole, let's hit it.
28:54
Let's get the +3 with Seattle #1 they're extremely contrarian and
28:58
heavily back game. They're only getting 34% of bets
29:01
at DraftKings. At Circa, they're only getting
29:02
26% of bets but 55% of dollars. You have conference dog system
29:08
matches, primetime dogs. Gino Smith as a dog in Seattle
29:12
or with Seattle is upwards of 60% ATS could be a good tease
29:16
Play 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2. But I'm going to I'm going to
29:20
wait on on the three there for Seattle.
29:22
So I haven't got it yet, but I'm waiting on Seattle plus 3.
29:26
Patriots I'm already have in pocket plus 6 1/2, Colts plus 4
29:30
1/2, Lions money line, Panthers money line, and Jaguars plus 3
29:34
1/2. So those are our bets for this
29:37
weekend. So that about does it.
29:39
Another pod here in the books as we continue to grind through the
29:42
darkness, through the abyss, just getting beaten down by bad
29:45
beats left and right. I don't know how much more I can
29:47
take. It's been brutal here.
29:49
But I do appreciate all of you for grinding through the rough
29:52
times with me because it's easy to get down on yourself.
29:54
It's easy to lose confidence. It's easy to say screw this
29:57
betting thing, it's personal. I feel like everything I do, it
30:00
never works out. Try not to go down that road.
30:03
Try not to be overcome by the negativity.
30:06
Just try to brush it off. As as hard as that sounds.
30:09
I know it's not easy. Hey, you know, Iowa folds for
30:13
you. You know, Kittle over 61 and
30:15
half lands on 61. It's so easy to smash your TV
30:18
or, or or do something, you know, drastic because you're so
30:21
frustrated. Believe me, I'm frustrated too.
30:23
But hey, we've been hot before, we've been cold before.
30:26
You just got to continue to grind through and that as I
30:30
actually watch the second episode of Churchill at War on
30:33
Netflix, one of the one of the most important things about
30:36
Churchill during the war that I was, I was watching and it's
30:40
been fantastic. And again, I kind of related to
30:41
sports betting when things aren't going your way.
30:44
World War 21940, Hitler's on the March they take, He takes over
30:48
France, he takes over pretty much all of Eastern Europe.
30:52
He gets to the coast. And this is where Dunkirk
30:54
happens, which is a fantastic movie, unbelievable.
30:57
One of my favorite movies of all time.
30:58
Christopher Nolan, if you haven't seen Dunkirk, you got to
31:00
watch it. But I was watching the
31:03
documentary and basically Winston Churchill is talking to
31:07
all the other politicians in, in England and they're saying, hey,
31:12
we got, we got to negotiate with Hitler.
31:15
We can't win. We can't beat him.
31:17
The you know, the German army is too strong.
31:20
They're rolling through Europe. We need to negotiate because if
31:23
we don't negotiate, we're going to lose.
31:25
And we're, you know, Hitler's going to win and take over
31:28
England. Everyone is saying he should
31:30
negotiate. Everyone is saying he should
31:32
raise the right, the white flag. And what does Churchill do?
31:35
He says no, he was the first leader to stand up to Hitler.
31:38
He said no, we are not negotiating with a lunatic,
31:42
maniac, evil, ridiculous, awful person.
31:46
We are going to fight, and it's got the incredible speech of
31:49
we're going to fight him in the streets, we're going to fight
31:51
him on the beaches, we're going to fight him in the air, we're
31:54
going to fight him on water. It's one of the best speeches of
31:57
all time. But that's kind of how you feel
31:59
sometimes when you're losing and the bad beats are left and right
32:03
and betting seems so ridiculous and unwinnable.
32:06
Don't give in. Don't negotiate with a
32:08
terrorist. Just continue to grind.
32:10
Have faith and do not give up as as, as, as Churchill did not
32:16
give up. The other angle there was
32:17
Churchill. This was really interesting to
32:19
me because he basically was saying we have an ace in our
32:23
pocket. We have the United States.
32:25
If we can get FDR in the United States to join us, that's the
32:29
key to winning and beating Hitler.
32:31
And lo and behold, it took a while, but FDR ended up joining.
32:35
And, and that's why the greatest generation is the greatest
32:38
generation. So a little pep talk there when
32:41
things are bleak, don't worry. We're going to fight the bad
32:43
beats on the ocean. We're going to fight the bad
32:45
beats in the streets. We're going to fight the bad
32:47
beats wherever they may be. So let's see if we can get back
32:51
to the green. But that about does everybody.
32:54
As always, I'll leave you with a few things #1 if you enjoy the
32:56
pod, I know you don't enjoy the results recently.
32:59
And hey, I apologize, it's been brutal.
33:02
But if you enjoy the pod, you value the breakdowns, you want
33:05
to let me know you appreciate the pod, Please give it a five
33:07
star review on Spotify or iTunes.
33:10
Click the follow button, recommend it to a friend.
33:12
That would mean a lot to me. Secondly, if you enjoy the
33:15
breakdowns, you want to learn more about data-driven, sharp
33:17
contrarian betting, I wrote a book.
33:19
You can buy that book. It makes a great stocking
33:21
stuffer. Just go to Amazon.com and type
33:23
in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
33:25
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
33:27
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
33:29
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place place a bet
33:32
in person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
33:35
a bankroll management plan all included in the Everything Guide
33:38
to Sports Betting. So that about does it of course
33:41
reminder, if you haven't downloaded rhythm or juice reel
33:44
yet, go do that today. I got a huge college basketball
33:47
day tomorrow and rhythm has great AI recommended models and
33:51
predictions for best bets and player props.
33:53
And then of course, juice reel where all the all systems go
33:56
best bets are located. If you want to follow them on
33:58
the social tab. I would very much appreciate
34:00
that, but also the Robo Jackson best bets arbitrage plays sharp
34:04
mush indicator. Shop for the best line for
34:07
futures prices all included when you download rhythm or sorry,
34:10
when you download Juice reel. So download them both Juice reel
34:13
rhythm you'll be off and running.
34:15
Of course, I want to invite you on Sunday myself and James
34:18
Santor will be doing the rhythm live stream.
34:20
So if any bets come in late or some player props catch our eye.
34:24
Love to see you guys at 11:00 AM Eastern Time for the live stream
34:27
on Twitter or X, whatever you want to call it.
34:30
But of course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
34:34
Twin River in Rhode Island, in the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
34:35
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
34:39
Boston or Plainridge Park Casino, or MGM Springfield in my
34:42
neck of the woods in Massachusetts or the Nash, the
34:45
new casino and sports book that's going to open in Nashua,
34:47
NH, which will be my new go to sports book.
34:50
It's only about 20 minutes away from my house.
34:53
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
34:55
down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where the
34:57
lowest true as possible is found at the South Point.
34:59
Or sweating, sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
35:02
swimming pool when you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it
35:05
may be, 49ers, Kittle, Iowa, you know, we're going to do, we're
35:10
just going to laugh. We're going to take a shot,
35:13
maybe, maybe an Irish car bomb. I don't know.
35:14
We'll hit some some rum and cokes because we need something
35:17
strong with what we're going through right now.
35:20
But you know what? We're going to keep our heads up
35:21
and keep grinding. So as always, remember, stay
35:24
sharp, stay contrary and bet against the public.
35:26
Place yourself on the side of the house.
35:27
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
35:30
Well, smart money when every time, of course not.
35:33
And this tough stretch here, we're beating closing lines left
35:35
and right. It's just brutal, terrible
35:37
unluckiness, unlucky breaks. But I can tell you this, there's
35:41
going to be times when you're red hot, there's going to be
35:43
times when you're when you're ice cold.
35:45
But you got to stick with it as as hard as that sounds.
35:48
Easier said than done, believe me, I know.
35:51
But as bad as it is now, it will turn.
35:53
Hopefully that turn is tonight. So as always, stay sharp, stay
35:56
contrary and bet against the public.
35:57
Place yourself on the side of the house.
35:59
Always be with the smart money and of course we can do that
36:02
against the house, with the public, with the pros, flat bet,
36:05
avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that consistently
36:08
long term, we're going to be successful sports vetters.
36:11
So have a fantastic Friday night everybody.
36:14
Happy holidays, of course. Hope to see you for the live
36:17
stream 11:00 AM Eastern Time this Sunday and let's see if we
36:20
can cash some tickets going into a big weekend.
36:23
I will see you guys hopefully on Sunday, but if not, I'll see you
36:26
back on Monday for episode 183 of the All Systems Go Sports
36:30
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
36:33
Good luck everybody. Have a great Friday night and an
36:35
even better weekend.