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The 2026 Panic Cycle & The Florida Parking Trap - John Rubino #6393 · Financial Survival Network

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Speaker 2: Ever, And welcome everybody. This is Financial Survival Network. John
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Speaker 2: Rabino is with us today, and wow, John, Like, remember
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Speaker 2: we used to have to struggle to find like four
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Speaker 2: or five different topics to talk about every show, and
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Speaker 2: we were doing it weekly. Now we have to struggle
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Speaker 2: to filter out four or five things to talk about
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Speaker 2: because everything is going insane in the world.
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Speaker 3: Hey Carrie, Yeah, yeah, the world has officially gotten more
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Speaker 3: crazy than it was five or ten years ago. You know,
1:00
Speaker 3: it seems impossible, but here we are. So what do
1:04
Speaker 3: you want to do first? Well, I get war or
1:08
Speaker 3: the economy.
1:09
Speaker 2: We got to talk about the war first, because nobody
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Speaker 2: really knows what the heck is going on there, you know,
1:16
Speaker 2: there the disinformation. I mean I knew it was bad
1:20
Speaker 2: during Iraq and Afghanistan, but now it's like you can't
1:25
Speaker 2: get the straight story on anything. That's happening.
1:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump pretty much just says whatever he's thinking in
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Speaker 3: the moment, whether it's true or not, and then the
1:34
Speaker 3: you know, that leaves the media to have to sort
1:36
Speaker 3: out whether that thing he said about the straight up
1:39
Speaker 3: hormouse or whatever is actually true. And you know, so
1:43
Speaker 3: far it's probably fifty to fifty. And you know, this
1:48
Speaker 3: is getting increasingly serious for Trump because you know, he's
1:56
Speaker 3: got a midterm election coming up pretty soon where it's
2:00
Speaker 3: completely possible that the Democrats take over the House and
2:03
Speaker 3: the Senate, which would paralyze the government. And he's kind
2:07
Speaker 3: of running out of time because he's got to get
2:09
Speaker 3: the Iran more over with in some kind of favorable
2:12
Speaker 3: way and then run on that or have his Congress
2:15
Speaker 3: people run on that. And you know, it's there's not
2:19
Speaker 3: that much time left for that kind of thing. And
2:22
Speaker 3: the effects of an energy and fertilizer disruption from the
2:29
Speaker 3: Middle East, those things are starting to spread around the world.
2:32
Speaker 3: There are diesel shortages and jet fuel shortages and fertilizer
2:38
Speaker 3: shortages in various places around the world, and that's causing
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Speaker 3: economic disruption, which in turn is going to spread to
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Speaker 3: the rest of the world. If we don't hurry up
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Speaker 3: and settle this thing. And there's no real sign that
2:52
Speaker 3: any kind of deal is being cut in the moment.
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Speaker 3: And part of that is because Iran knows that Trump
3:00
Speaker 3: is on the clock, and so you know, they're they're
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Speaker 3: just in no hurry apparently to cut any kind of
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Speaker 3: a deal, because they know that Trump's incentive to do something,
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Speaker 3: you know, declare victory and walk away or whatever is
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Speaker 3: growing every day that passes.
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Speaker 2: Well, here's my theory, what's going to happen? And he
3:22
Speaker 2: kind of tipped his hand. Well, if somebody said, I
3:27
Speaker 2: think I was at ay watching some speaker, and he said,
3:32
Speaker 2: Conservatives never take anything Trump says seriously, but they take
3:39
Speaker 2: what he does seriously, and liberals take everything he says seriously,
3:46
Speaker 2: but never take anything he does seriously. So what I
3:50
Speaker 2: believe is going to happen here is just in time
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Speaker 2: for the election, Cuba's government will be replaced, it will fall,
3:59
Speaker 2: and he's going to be able to celebrate a great
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Speaker 2: victory that beguiled all of his predecessors, going back to Eisenhower,
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Speaker 2: and as far as Iran goes, I've always thought it's
4:13
Speaker 2: going to have to be a ground operation that we
4:15
Speaker 2: don't want to do. It's going to be subcontracted out
4:19
Speaker 2: to the Kurds. They're going to come in from the
4:21
Speaker 2: north along with the Iranian irregulars, along with a big
4:28
Speaker 2: mercenary force that the United States government is paying for.
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Speaker 2: And that's how it's going to resolve itself, because you know,
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Speaker 2: they can just wait. If the popular uprising they tried it,
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Speaker 2: they killed forty thousand of them. I tend to believe
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Speaker 2: that number. So that's what I think is going to
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Speaker 2: happen here. I don't know how unpopular the war really is,
4:54
Speaker 2: but I think free in Cuba would pretty much pretty
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Speaker 2: much nullify or soften whatever is happening with Iran. But
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Speaker 2: the downstream effects of the Iranian war are quite severe,
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Speaker 2: and they could get a lot worse.
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Speaker 3: If we see.
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Speaker 2: Gas lines around the world as a result of this war,
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Speaker 2: that is pretty significant.
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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I think the calculus is what would be
5:24
Speaker 3: more important to voters in November Cuba getting a new
5:30
Speaker 3: government or six dollar gallon gas? And I you know,
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Speaker 3: I kind of think that six dollars a gallon gas
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Speaker 3: is going to be by far the most important issue.
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Speaker 3: And if that's what we've got going into the election,
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Speaker 3: you know, remember that for us, it's not that big
5:47
Speaker 3: of a deal that we pay an extra buck or
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Speaker 3: two for gas. But there's a huge section of the
5:51
Speaker 3: country out there that is just now barely able to
5:56
Speaker 3: get to work every day. You know, they have just
5:58
Speaker 3: enough money to put gas in the car and get
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Speaker 3: to work and still feed their family and pay their
6:02
Speaker 3: rent and everything. And if you ask them for another
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Speaker 3: one hundred dollars a month in gas, they can't cut it.
6:10
Speaker 3: You know, their life gets much much harder than it
6:12
Speaker 3: is right now, and they're going to remember when they
6:15
Speaker 3: go to vote. And so now on the other side
6:22
Speaker 3: of that equation is the fact that the Republicans are
6:25
Speaker 3: redistricting everything in sight right now, and they're gaining apparently
6:29
Speaker 3: a lot of House seats. So if they go into
6:32
Speaker 3: the election with fifty more relatively safe Republican seats that
6:38
Speaker 3: are going to be flipped from the Democrats, then maybe
6:41
Speaker 3: that's enough to retain control of the House. Maybe, But
6:46
Speaker 3: I think if the election were held today, Democrats win
6:50
Speaker 3: in a landslide. They maybe even take the Senate too,
6:53
Speaker 3: and they instantly impeach Trump on fifteen different you know,
6:59
Speaker 3: some of which potentially are legit charges, you know, the
7:04
Speaker 3: corruption that they're overseeing right now. I mean, you know,
7:07
Speaker 3: their kids are getting rich. They've got Meme coins, and
7:10
Speaker 3: they're his sons are getting Defense Department contracts, and it
7:15
Speaker 3: just goes on and on. And I would be willing
7:19
Speaker 3: to put up with that kind of corruption if no
7:23
Speaker 3: more wars and the border remains secure, you know, but
7:26
Speaker 3: that's not the case today. We only have the border
7:29
Speaker 3: that's basically it, and that's not enough, you know. I
7:34
Speaker 3: think there's a decent chance that well, I mean, if
7:38
Speaker 3: we think it's chaotic right now, let the Democrats take
7:42
Speaker 3: the House on the Senate, and then you're gonna get
7:44
Speaker 3: chaos because they could literally, you know, set it up
7:49
Speaker 3: so they kicked Trump out of office and then put
7:51
Speaker 3: him in prison. And they will love to be able
7:54
Speaker 3: to do that. And I'd hate to see that for
7:58
Speaker 3: a variety of reasons. But I think it's not out
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Speaker 3: of the question going into this set of midterms.
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Speaker 2: You know, like one thing you know in politics is
8:11
Speaker 2: that ninety days is a lifetime. You know, what you
8:16
Speaker 2: think is going to happen, you know, who knows. But
8:19
Speaker 2: the redistricting is kind of fascinating. It should be jerrymandering
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Speaker 2: should be completely outlawed in my opinion, because it's manipulating
8:29
Speaker 2: the composition of Congress. And you know, I would rather
8:34
Speaker 2: see them use a Bingo card to redistrict and everything
8:40
Speaker 2: is done randomly. Then you know the system that we
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Speaker 2: have now, which is intended to ensure outcomes. And there's
8:49
Speaker 2: no difference when you get down to the corruption of
8:52
Speaker 2: the two parties, they're equally as corrupt. And you know
8:57
Speaker 2: there's only one party, right, the incumbency party in a
9:00
Speaker 2: party never lose sight of that fact.
9:03
Speaker 3: Well, you know, there's nothing more corrupt than a congressman
9:07
Speaker 3: with a safe seat, right because because then it just
9:11
Speaker 3: becomes an annuity. They just they just they don't have
9:14
Speaker 3: to worry about actually legislating or anything. They just they
9:19
Speaker 3: just collect rent for owning that seat. And they get
9:22
Speaker 3: very rish. You know, you look at these guys at AOC,
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Speaker 3: people like that who make one hundred and seventy five
9:27
Speaker 3: thousand dollars a year but are multi multimillionaires. Now, somehow,
9:31
Speaker 3: how did that happen? Nobody in Congress cares because they're
9:34
Speaker 3: all on the same gravy train. So it's the grit. Yeah,
9:38
Speaker 3: it's it's at rift. It is a grif and you're right.
9:42
Speaker 3: One one fix, i mean term of its would be
9:45
Speaker 3: the obvious fix for it. But one other fix is
9:49
Speaker 3: having some kind of a legitimate way to draw congressional districts. No, no,
9:55
Speaker 3: so you're instead of dividing up the black vote into
10:00
Speaker 3: and making it forty of eight different districts or whatever
10:03
Speaker 3: it is they're doing. Now, just take a city, draw
10:07
Speaker 3: a circle around it, and that's a congressional district. And
10:10
Speaker 3: then you take the land around on one side of
10:13
Speaker 3: the city, a much bigger piece of land, make that
10:15
Speaker 3: another congressional district. So the people inside each district have
10:20
Speaker 3: a shared set of concerns. And you know, that's technically
10:24
Speaker 3: really easy to do, but it's politically unprofitable, right yeah,
10:28
Speaker 3: so there has to be a way to make it profitable.
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Speaker 2: All right, I'm going to ask chat gupt what would
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Speaker 2: be what would be the best way? Two redistrict and
10:44
Speaker 2: the fairest and let's see what it thinks. All right,
10:50
Speaker 2: it's thinking on it now. Uh, okay, it's thinking okay,
10:58
Speaker 2: so very no politicians drawing their own districts. Obvious conflict.
11:04
Speaker 2: Fox guarding the handhouse districts must be equal population, contiguous,
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Speaker 2: reasonably compact, respectful of counties, cities, neighborhoods, Compliant with Voting
11:16
Speaker 2: Rights Act whatever. That means, barred from intentional partisan favoritism.
11:22
Speaker 2: So I don't know if it can comply with the
11:25
Speaker 2: Voting Acts. Right, the Voting Rights Act and barred from
11:29
Speaker 2: intentional partisan favoritism. The two kind of go against each other.
11:34
Speaker 2: Commission structure equal Democrats, Republicans, independents, throw in a couple
11:40
Speaker 2: of libertarians for good measure. Public map process, all proposed
11:45
Speaker 2: maps published, public comments, allowed, data disclosed, hearings before approval.
11:52
Speaker 2: Computer stress tests run thousands of neutral maps using the
11:57
Speaker 2: same legal geographic constraints. If the adopted map is an
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Speaker 2: extreme partisan outlier rejected court fast track review killer rule,
12:07
Speaker 2: you can optimize for geography and communities first, but not
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Speaker 2: for party outcome. Yeah, pretty reasonable. But it will never happen, right.
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Speaker 3: Not unless it gets so bad. See, democracies tend to
12:23
Speaker 3: have a nourish it until there's a gigantic crisis and
12:25
Speaker 3: then they're forced to change in some way. And I think,
12:30
Speaker 3: you know, it's possible we're headed for something like that
12:33
Speaker 3: where people who just get so disgusted that it becomes
12:37
Speaker 3: popular enough to win on fixing it becomes that popular,
12:42
Speaker 3: but we're not there now. You know, everybody's just scrambling
12:45
Speaker 3: for an advantage right now, and that doesn't seem like
12:50
Speaker 3: it's going to change anytime soon.
12:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't see it. So one of our viewers here,
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Speaker 2: Neil said, rightly, said, John, let's discuss gold, silver and PMS.
13:02
Speaker 2: All right, So that's why everyone's here. So who are
13:05
Speaker 2: we to deny you? So what the heck's going on
13:07
Speaker 2: with gold? We had silver up broke eighty five, they
13:11
Speaker 2: tried to crush it. Today I think we're right around
13:14
Speaker 2: eighty four bucks. Let me look at my kitko, even
13:18
Speaker 2: though nobody likes that, oh or almost at eighty five
13:21
Speaker 2: eighty four seventy for silver, forty six seventy seven for gold.
13:26
Speaker 2: It's it's the craziest thing because it's doing exactly what
13:30
Speaker 2: you don't expect it to do, which is when remember
13:34
Speaker 2: when the war broke out, gold and silver went down.
13:38
Speaker 2: Then when there was supposedly a piece five a ceasefire
13:43
Speaker 2: peace plan, then gold and silver went up, and now
13:47
Speaker 2: lately the war threatens to break out again. Now they're
13:51
Speaker 2: going down can you explain that for me and for
13:54
Speaker 2: all of you out there, especially Meal and Roger and Richer, Greg,
14:01
Speaker 2: Charles Theodore, appreciate your all coming out. Francis, how does
14:06
Speaker 2: this work? And Richard who has a podcast he's back
14:09
Speaker 2: on with us. I can't remember the name of your podcast, Richard,
14:13
Speaker 2: but let us know. But how do you explain why
14:17
Speaker 2: it did exactly what you think it shouldn't do?
14:20
Speaker 3: Well? I can't explain it, and I've given up trying
14:22
Speaker 3: to think in those terms. You know that it's so
14:26
Speaker 3: much easier to look at longer trends that are playing
14:31
Speaker 3: out and eventually have to have a certain kind of impact,
14:34
Speaker 3: Like you know, government debt. We're borrowing way too much money.
14:38
Speaker 3: We're creating too much currency to guarantee a stable economy
14:44
Speaker 3: going forward or a stable currency, you know. So we're
14:46
Speaker 3: going to see the dollar decline in value from here.
14:49
Speaker 3: That's good for gold and silver, and with other commodities,
14:53
Speaker 3: we're going to see growing demand for stuff like copper
14:56
Speaker 3: and uranium. That's good for them too. So commodities are
14:59
Speaker 3: a great used to be, but on any given day,
15:02
Speaker 3: they're capable of doing things that seem wildly outer counterintuitive. Yes,
15:08
Speaker 3: and that's been you know, the whole Iran war thing
15:12
Speaker 3: has been pretty counterintuitive. You're right, you'd think that inflation hedges,
15:16
Speaker 3: safe haven kinds of assets would go up when we
15:20
Speaker 3: start a new Middle East war, and they didn't. But
15:25
Speaker 3: I mean they're starting to again now. They're starting to
15:27
Speaker 3: rise again. But I don't know why they didn't go
15:29
Speaker 3: up before. I don't know why they're picking this particular
15:32
Speaker 3: moment to go up, but they're doing what they should
15:36
Speaker 3: do in the long term, which is gradually rise until
15:41
Speaker 3: everybody becomes completely convinced that it's going to go on forever,
15:44
Speaker 3: and then they do their parabolic thing. So the thing
15:48
Speaker 3: that happened with silver before, when it spiked right up
15:50
Speaker 3: to one hundred and twenty and then crash back down,
15:54
Speaker 3: that was just one of those things that happen that
15:59
Speaker 3: don't have any real meaning. But what's happening right now
16:02
Speaker 3: is more gradual but still positive, and I think this
16:07
Speaker 3: is more of a sustainable move to higher levels for
16:12
Speaker 3: silver than the previous spike. So this is really encouraging
16:17
Speaker 3: because you know, there's not any kind of panic buying
16:20
Speaker 3: going on yet, so we aren't in the parabolic phase
16:23
Speaker 3: where the the COMEX breaks down and has to defollow
16:28
Speaker 3: on a silver contract or something like that. We're just
16:30
Speaker 3: seeing demand for silver steadily rise, and you know, China
16:35
Speaker 3: has been buying a lot of silver lately, so that
16:37
Speaker 3: could that that could account for a lot of what's
16:41
Speaker 3: happening in the price now. And the Shanghai Metals Exchange
16:46
Speaker 3: is beginning to dictate prices and take price setting away
16:50
Speaker 3: from the paper markets. That's a good thing for the
16:53
Speaker 3: metals too. And you know, those things could all combine
16:56
Speaker 3: to cause the current increase in golden over prices. And
17:01
Speaker 3: if that's the case, that's great because those things are
17:03
Speaker 3: going to continue, you know, and we're going to see
17:06
Speaker 3: rising demand industrially for silver and probably in terms of
17:11
Speaker 3: investor demand too. So I think, you know, triple digit
17:17
Speaker 3: silver is a very real possibility. This year, we could
17:20
Speaker 3: see one hundred dollars an ounce and that would be
17:24
Speaker 3: you know, that would be great. It would be overdue,
17:26
Speaker 3: and it would be a sign of things to come.
17:28
Speaker 3: But in and of itself, it would be a great move.
17:30
Speaker 3: And I think it's completely possible in the not too
17:33
Speaker 3: distant future.
17:35
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree with you more And I have another
17:37
Speaker 2: theory totally off the wall, but watch it'll come true.
17:43
Speaker 2: I believe. Well, we might not cross the border into
17:47
Speaker 2: Mexico with one hundred thousand troops to go fight the cartels,
17:53
Speaker 2: but understand, the cartel's strongest geographic locations just happens to
17:58
Speaker 2: be in the heart of Mexico's silver belt. So we've
18:03
Speaker 2: already got special forces down there going after the cartels.
18:07
Speaker 2: I think it's very viable, considering that a quarter of
18:11
Speaker 2: the twenty five percent of the world's silver supply comes
18:16
Speaker 2: from Mexico, and we have already signed some type of
18:19
Speaker 2: resource agreement with Mexico. We're in there, all right. The
18:26
Speaker 2: US is going to like take out the cartels. That's
18:29
Speaker 2: why Trump designated them terrorist organizations. I mean, I do
18:33
Speaker 2: believe they do a lot of evil with drugs and such,
18:37
Speaker 2: but most of that evil if drugs were legalized, we
18:40
Speaker 2: wouldn't have it. If we treated drugs as a public
18:43
Speaker 2: health problem instead of a criminal justice issue, the problem
18:50
Speaker 2: would subside. But in any event, the US will seek
18:55
Speaker 2: to secure its supply of silver through Mexico whatever it takes,
19:00
Speaker 2: and add Peru to that as well. The US Trump
19:05
Speaker 2: is trying to create this resort resource belt from Canada,
19:11
Speaker 2: actually from Alaska down to South America. That's what I see.
19:16
Speaker 2: But in any event, you know, the just to watch
19:22
Speaker 2: the gyrations of the metal. But still, John, when you
19:25
Speaker 2: and I were kids and they demonetized silver, they took
19:30
Speaker 2: it out of the coinage. At that point, silver was
19:35
Speaker 2: trading at less than a dollar a dollar an ounce,
19:40
Speaker 2: and now it's at eighty five. So if you multiply that,
19:45
Speaker 2: just call it a buck. Even though I think it
19:47
Speaker 2: was sixty or seventy cents in nineteen sixty, it was
19:51
Speaker 2: sixty or seventy cents. However bad the purchasing power and
19:55
Speaker 2: the currency has been. If you held an ounce of
19:58
Speaker 2: silver from nineteen six to now, it's worth over one
20:03
Speaker 2: hundred times more than it's the value of its silver content.
20:08
Speaker 2: That's that's inflation protection on steroids, isn't it.
20:12
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, well, you know, just in our adult lives
20:16
Speaker 3: back in two thousand, silver with six bucks in ounce,
20:20
Speaker 3: so six to eighty something is more than one thousand
20:23
Speaker 3: percent gain. Yeah, So you really only had to buy
20:25
Speaker 3: silver back at the beginning of the century, and you
20:30
Speaker 3: would have done as well as basically any professional investor
20:34
Speaker 3: is doing out there now. So yeah, silver is a
20:38
Speaker 3: huge success story. So those goal you know, those are
20:40
Speaker 3: two of the three or four best performing assets of
20:43
Speaker 3: this century. And it's encouraging to think that we're nowhere
20:50
Speaker 3: nearly done with the process because the fiat currencies still exist,
20:54
Speaker 3: They're still out there being used. They haven't died yet,
20:57
Speaker 3: and so we still have the process of the crackup
21:01
Speaker 3: boom where people just lose faith in these currencies, and
21:05
Speaker 3: then the reset where they have to go back to
21:08
Speaker 3: some kind of a commodity standard, probably a gold standard,
21:11
Speaker 3: probably at fifteen to twenty thousand dollars an ounce. You know,
21:13
Speaker 3: that's all out there waiting to happen, and silver in
21:19
Speaker 3: that process. If we go to a gold standard at
21:21
Speaker 3: twenty thousand dollars an ounce, then what is the gold
21:23
Speaker 3: silver ratio. Let's say it goes to fifty. We're talking
21:26
Speaker 3: serious silver numbers. So yeah, I think the best part
21:31
Speaker 3: of the precious metal story is still to come, and
21:35
Speaker 3: there will be you know, stomach churning corrections along the
21:39
Speaker 3: way and all kinds of price behavior that doesn't make
21:43
Speaker 3: sense in the moment. All of that stuff is just
21:45
Speaker 3: part of a big bull market. So you know what
21:48
Speaker 3: I'm telling people on substack. To do is just don't
21:52
Speaker 3: get wrapped up in the squiggles. Just continue to gradually
21:56
Speaker 3: buy really high quality assets within the commodity space, especially
22:00
Speaker 3: precious metals, but also uranium, copper, several other things, and
22:06
Speaker 3: just let these broad long term forces work themselves out.
22:10
Speaker 3: You know, if your dollar cost averaging into high quality
22:12
Speaker 3: gold and silver miners, you're going to be just fine
22:16
Speaker 3: five or ten years from now, and that's a really RESTful,
22:19
Speaker 3: easy thing to do, you know, Or put in low
22:21
Speaker 3: ball bids on those things. You know, if you like
22:25
Speaker 3: a certain gold miner, make a bid that's twenty percent
22:28
Speaker 3: below today's price and see if the next correction gives
22:31
Speaker 3: you those shares. It probably will, So there are very easy,
22:35
Speaker 3: low stress ways to ride a long termable market like this.
22:39
Speaker 3: But if you keep focusing on what happened last week
22:43
Speaker 3: and what's going to happen next week, it'll drive you crazy.
22:46
Speaker 3: If you won't enjoy it, it'll ruin your health, it
22:48
Speaker 3: will ruin your self confidence, and it does you know,
22:51
Speaker 3: if you end up with a lot of money at
22:52
Speaker 3: the end of that process, you'll be unhealthy and you'll
22:55
Speaker 3: be a sick psychological person as well. As physical. So
22:59
Speaker 3: you have to do this in a way that's healthy
23:02
Speaker 3: for you, which is to say, low stress and just
23:05
Speaker 3: gradually buying high quality names and ignoring the squiggles is
23:08
Speaker 3: one way to do it.
23:10
Speaker 2: And for some people it's buying the shares. For others
23:15
Speaker 2: it might just be buying a roll of I was
23:18
Speaker 2: going to say a roll of quarters now, but a
23:19
Speaker 2: roll of quarters that's ten dollars is basically clicking at it.
23:25
Speaker 2: It's like six hundred and fifty bucks for a roll
23:28
Speaker 2: of quarters, So maybe a roll of dimes.
23:31
Speaker 3: You know, you can just go on Walmart dot com
23:33
Speaker 3: right now and buy silver eagles, So it's like buying
23:37
Speaker 3: anything else online. You just click, you know, you put
23:41
Speaker 3: it in your cart, you check out, and then three
23:44
Speaker 3: days later it shows up at your door. So it's
23:47
Speaker 3: the easiest thing in the world to buy physical precious metals. Now.
23:51
Speaker 2: Buy one a week, yeah, one a week, you know,
23:56
Speaker 2: one a month, will still end up with it.
23:58
Speaker 3: Silver goes to two hundred dollars an hour and you're
24:00
Speaker 3: buying it seventy or eighty or ninety, you're still going
24:06
Speaker 3: to end up with a really nice capital gain and
24:08
Speaker 3: you'll have the wherewithal to help your friends and family
24:12
Speaker 3: and to buy a then as a house or what
24:14
Speaker 3: you know, all the stuff you want to do with
24:16
Speaker 3: extra money, you'll have it.
24:18
Speaker 2: So easiest thing in the world to do in I remember,
24:23
Speaker 2: there's a place in New York called Freedom Land in
24:26
Speaker 2: the Bronx, and subsequently it was removed and they built
24:30
Speaker 2: co Op City there. But basically it was an amusement
24:33
Speaker 2: park dedicated to like the americanism. It's a typical sixties
24:37
Speaker 2: thing when we still had our innocence as a country.
24:41
Speaker 2: But basically when you went in there, everything was a
24:45
Speaker 2: silver dollar and you'd give them cash, and they'd give
24:48
Speaker 2: you silver dollars and they were worth basically a buck
24:52
Speaker 2: in the early sixties. That silver dollar now is worth
24:57
Speaker 2: sixty six dollars. So if you had one hundred dollars
25:02
Speaker 2: worth of of silver dollars from the mid sixties, it's
25:08
Speaker 2: worth sixty six hundred dollars now. Yeah. I mean sure,
25:12
Speaker 2: like Tesla and Microsoft and Google and all those stocks
25:17
Speaker 2: did almost as well or maybe even better some of
25:20
Speaker 2: them bitcoins certainly, But putting one hundred bucks into something
25:27
Speaker 2: having it worth sixty six hundred, now, that's an impressive
25:31
Speaker 2: gain by any stretch when.
25:35
Speaker 3: You're doing it without counterparty risk. You know, nobody has
25:37
Speaker 3: to keep a promise for those silver coins to have
25:40
Speaker 3: gone up in value. But you know, if you invest
25:42
Speaker 3: in any stock, the people running that company have to perform.
25:48
Speaker 3: You know, you're trusting other people to do something that
25:52
Speaker 3: they might or might not do, whereas with physical precious
25:55
Speaker 3: metals you don't have to trust anybody. In fact, it's
26:00
Speaker 3: better if you don't trust the people running the world
26:02
Speaker 3: because that makes your precious metals get more and more
26:04
Speaker 3: valuable when they screw up. So, yeah, you know, the
26:08
Speaker 3: place you start if you're looking for a low risk,
26:13
Speaker 3: high quality portfolio is with physical precious metals, and you
26:18
Speaker 3: nail down or you stack enough to the point where
26:22
Speaker 3: you're satisfied, and then you move on to equities. And
26:27
Speaker 3: you know, I would say the equities of commodity companies
26:30
Speaker 3: would be the place to go. But you do that
26:33
Speaker 3: after you've created your your bedrock financial assets, which would
26:41
Speaker 3: be physical assets that nobody else has to keep a
26:44
Speaker 3: promise around for them to be to maintain their value.
26:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And all right, so inflation number came
26:57
Speaker 2: out today, three point eight percent. I'm sure everyone's going
27:01
Speaker 2: to be howling at the moon about it.
27:06
Speaker 3: Surprise, Well, no, not with oil up where it is.
27:11
Speaker 3: That's such a big part of producer prices, and then
27:15
Speaker 3: it leads over into consumer prices that yeah, we're looking
27:18
Speaker 3: at the way above target inflation as long as the
27:23
Speaker 3: supply chains out there are as constrained as they are.
27:27
Speaker 3: So you know, oil is a part of almost everything,
27:33
Speaker 3: and fertilizer is a part of obviously agricultural products. So
27:37
Speaker 3: you make those things more expensive and you get higher inflation.
27:41
Speaker 3: And again we're heading into a mid term election with
27:45
Speaker 3: inflation spiking. Is this is almost the worst of all
27:49
Speaker 3: possible worlds for a government. But yeah, I think that
27:54
Speaker 3: inflation is not going to go down anytime soon unless
27:59
Speaker 3: we fix the supply chains in a hurry. And longer
28:05
Speaker 3: term inflation ought to be going up from here, just
28:08
Speaker 3: because we're running crisis level deficits at the US and
28:13
Speaker 3: for a lot of other big countries, and then we
28:16
Speaker 3: have to finance them, and the interest cost on the
28:18
Speaker 3: death that we're building up is becoming debilitating and it
28:21
Speaker 3: has to be borrowed a year after year. So we're
28:23
Speaker 3: kind of in the currency death spiral now, and that's
28:27
Speaker 3: going to lead to higher inflation too, even if we
28:30
Speaker 3: were at peace across the world. But you throw in
28:33
Speaker 3: a war that disrupts supply chains, and surprise, surprise, you
28:36
Speaker 3: get higher inflation that doesn't go away anytime soon. So
28:41
Speaker 3: I think bonds are looking at looking like one of
28:46
Speaker 3: the worst imaginable investments going forward, because the yield on
28:53
Speaker 3: government bonds generally have to go up now because people
28:57
Speaker 3: are going to be demanding higher and higher rewards for
29:02
Speaker 3: buying bonds in an environment where inflation is rising. So
29:05
Speaker 3: this is looking more like the nineteen seventies all the time.
29:10
Speaker 3: And that was the time when we lost faith in
29:12
Speaker 3: the system basically, and inflation started to pick up and
29:15
Speaker 3: interest rates started to spike, and by the end of
29:18
Speaker 3: the nineteen seventies we had sixteen percent mortgages and eighteen
29:23
Speaker 3: percent bond yields. Yeah, yeah, I do too, Hardly anybody does. Now.
29:28
Speaker 3: It's a sign of our age now that the nineteen
29:32
Speaker 3: seventies or something we can talk about from memory instead
29:34
Speaker 3: of having read about it somewhere. But you know, that's
29:38
Speaker 3: the kind of thing that what was incredibly destructive back then,
29:41
Speaker 3: incredibly scary, we had to fix it with continued or
29:46
Speaker 3: sustained double double digit interest rates. We can't do that now.
29:52
Speaker 3: So I think the big risk to the financial system
29:55
Speaker 3: comes when people realize, oh, the FED doesn't have that
29:57
Speaker 3: tool anymore. You know, inflation is accelerating, but we can't
30:01
Speaker 3: raise interest rates because that blows up so much of
30:05
Speaker 3: the leverage speculating community out there, and so we just
30:10
Speaker 3: have to accept rising inflation. And once that happens, the
30:13
Speaker 3: markets will we're you know, respond with panic. I think yeah.
30:19
Speaker 2: By the way, Richard's podcast is Mixed Nuts Nation. I've
30:23
Speaker 2: been on it before. It's a lot of fun on
30:25
Speaker 2: Anybody out there suggests you go check it out. Richard's here.
30:30
Speaker 2: He says, I wonder if Worsh starts buying bonds.
30:34
Speaker 3: Can't rule it out.
30:35
Speaker 2: Balance sheet integrity, like everything else, is an empty old sauce.
30:39
Speaker 2: Right along the lines of what you're saying, John.
30:42
Speaker 3: Well, Worsh got hired by Donald Trump to be the
30:46
Speaker 3: head of a FED, and you know that job interview
30:48
Speaker 3: is going to involve him promising to cut interest rates
30:52
Speaker 3: dramatically somehow someway, because why else would he have gotten
30:55
Speaker 3: the job Because Trump wants lower interest rates and he's
30:58
Speaker 3: not going to hire a hawk. So in that job interview,
31:02
Speaker 3: the promises were made, so we'll just we'll see how
31:05
Speaker 3: he manages to keep the promise of lower interest rates.
31:08
Speaker 3: It's not clear right now exactly what they're going to do,
31:10
Speaker 3: but as soon as there's any kind of a crisis
31:12
Speaker 3: that'll do it right, the Fed will. That'll be the
31:15
Speaker 3: excuse the Fed is looking for to push the Fed
31:18
Speaker 3: funds rate back down to zero and send the world
31:20
Speaker 3: back into negative interest rates. In a lot of places,
31:23
Speaker 3: there's no way to avoid that, at least at the
31:26
Speaker 3: short end of the yield curve. The long end of
31:28
Speaker 3: the yield curve is up to the blond markets, and
31:33
Speaker 3: if the blonde markets rebel, then you'll see the FED
31:37
Speaker 3: step in and start buying ten year treasuries out to
31:40
Speaker 3: thirty year treasuries for whatever it takes to push the
31:44
Speaker 3: yield on those instruments back down. And you know, that's
31:48
Speaker 3: massive quey, you know, huge increase in the money supply.
31:51
Speaker 3: And we just recently in twenty twenty two, so what
31:55
Speaker 3: that does. You know, we had a double digit increase
31:58
Speaker 3: almost in the official and flight rate in the United
32:01
Speaker 3: States in one year, and we had about a thirty
32:04
Speaker 3: percent increase in the cost of living for average people
32:07
Speaker 3: over three or four years. So that day is coming again,
32:11
Speaker 3: only on a much bigger scale. And when it happens again,
32:15
Speaker 3: you want to be in real assets. You know, if
32:17
Speaker 3: you've got uranium and copper and gold and silver, and
32:20
Speaker 3: something like that happens, then you're in pretty good shape.
32:23
Speaker 3: So it's just a question of being prepared for it
32:26
Speaker 3: before the crisis hits. And I don't know how long
32:31
Speaker 3: we have to be honest.
32:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a certain inevitability to it all. And yeah,
32:38
Speaker 2: well I guess time will tell, as it always does.
32:43
Speaker 2: So yeah, the whole crazy world though, the whole balance
32:49
Speaker 2: of power and everything else is just it's all in
32:54
Speaker 2: flux now. Armstrong, Martin Armstrong, it is World Economic Conference,
32:59
Speaker 2: which I reckon to anybody who has got the money
33:02
Speaker 2: to go to at every November in Orlando. He said
33:08
Speaker 2: that twenty twenty six would be a panic cycle year,
33:11
Speaker 2: and he even pinpointed it John to March of twenty
33:16
Speaker 2: twenty six, and his thinking is it was going to
33:21
Speaker 2: be more European, eurocentric, with Russia and Ukraine going at it.
33:30
Speaker 2: That war, like everyone's forgotten about that war now, John,
33:34
Speaker 2: You know, like, oh, yeah too, they're still fighting. But
33:38
Speaker 2: basically it looks to me like that war is kind
33:41
Speaker 2: of exhausting itself. We're at the point of exhaustion there.
33:46
Speaker 3: Well. See, that's another reason why we really need Trump
33:50
Speaker 3: to stay in office and continue to be consequential, because, yeah,
33:55
Speaker 3: when when he got elected, or during basically the whole
34:00
Speaker 3: Biden administration, we were blundering into World War three with
34:04
Speaker 3: a nuclear power, and now we're not. You know, the
34:08
Speaker 3: war is still going on, but it's just not our
34:10
Speaker 3: problem and it's not a risk to us anymore. And
34:12
Speaker 3: that is so much better than it was. You know,
34:18
Speaker 3: none of us want our kids to be incinerated in
34:20
Speaker 3: a nuclear holocaust, and we were flirting with something like
34:23
Speaker 3: that and now we're not, So this is so much better.
34:27
Speaker 3: I Mean, it's still a war. People are still dying
34:30
Speaker 3: over there, and it needs to be stopped. You know,
34:33
Speaker 3: there needs to be a deal that puts it to bed.
34:35
Speaker 3: But at least we're not flirting with nuclear annihilation. And
34:43
Speaker 3: that's a huge gain. That's a huge benefit of the
34:47
Speaker 3: current administration that people don't really think of the way
34:50
Speaker 3: they should. I mean, we should be very thankful that
34:52
Speaker 3: the border is closed, and the Ukraine War is no
34:55
Speaker 3: longer a big deal, and we should hope that those
34:58
Speaker 3: policies continue.
35:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's tossing out the worst criminals. You know,
35:05
Speaker 2: I have mixed feelings about hard working illegals, especially once
35:09
Speaker 2: been here for decades, as far as the ones that
35:11
Speaker 2: are collecting welfare, which seems like certain groups it's large percentages.
35:16
Speaker 2: Just get rid of them. They're a drain on the country.
35:19
Speaker 2: There actually is a law against it, called the public
35:22
Speaker 2: charge law, which anyone who wants to become a citizen
35:25
Speaker 2: in the United States cannot be a public charge meeting
35:28
Speaker 2: on welfare. But yeah, I agree with you that certainly
35:34
Speaker 2: the prospects of global war have diminished. But now he
35:39
Speaker 2: got these skirmishes and these low grade battles breaking out.
35:45
Speaker 2: He did get rid of Maduro, he got the Pana
35:50
Speaker 2: Canal back basically, which nobody in the media talked about.
35:55
Speaker 2: But on February twenty third, Panama seized control of the
35:59
Speaker 2: both sorts, one on the Atlantic Caribbean and the other
36:04
Speaker 2: on the Pacific and basically installed a temporary caretaker there
36:10
Speaker 2: and toss China. And that was a huge mark that
36:16
Speaker 2: got zero media attention wonder why, But in any event,
36:23
Speaker 2: man things are taken off. I guess we'll kind of
36:26
Speaker 2: leave it at this. Make sure you go over to
36:29
Speaker 2: John site to rabino dot substack dot com. He does
36:34
Speaker 2: a portfolio recommendations stock analysis there. Of course, we're substack
36:40
Speaker 2: is khl FSN. You found us here and any questions
36:45
Speaker 2: or comments shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets
36:48
Speaker 2: dot com and John we will see.
36:51
Speaker 3: You in a few weeks. Thanks Karay see us soon.
36:53
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
36:58
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37:01
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