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Where Will Bitcoin Be in 2030? | What the Dot Com Bubble Teaches Us | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

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  From 1996 to 2000, the NASDAQ was on a heater, rising from 400
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  to $4400 a shareandthenthe.com bubble burst, wiping out over $5
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  trillion of wealth overnight. And today I'm going to show you
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  why the environment we're in right now looks exactly like
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  1996, and why Jerome Powell's comments and decisions on
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  Wednesday of next week could kick off the next bull run in
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  Bitcoin and equities that you're not going to want to miss.
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  We've seen a bunch of $1 million Bitcoin predictions by 20-30,
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  and I'm here to show you today why those numbers aren't as
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  crazy as you think. And I'm actually going to back
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  it up with data and research. This is why people subscribe to
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  this show. We go deeper than surface layer.
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  This is Dante Koch with Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
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  I, I, you know, the rough idea I have in my head is like, we'll
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  see $1,000,000. Bitcoin by 2030.
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  We have a 2030 target. In our base case, it's around
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  $650,000. In our bull case, it's between
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  1:00 and $1.5 million. OK, these $1 million Bitcoin
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  predictions by 20-30 seem ridiculous.
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  When you look at the history of bubbles and you look at where we
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  are today with AI, you understand that we're about to
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  enter into the mania phase. The smart money has already been
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  invested in AI, data centers, energy, commodities, crypto, but
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  the media will begin to call them mission critical and then
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  everyone else is going to pile in thinking this is their last
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  chance to get in on these investments.
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  And what happens? Well, the prices go to the moon.
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  This looks exactly where we were in 1996.
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  Unemployment rates were hovering around the 6.5% range.
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  And what happened was the Fed started cutting rates from 6% to
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  about 4.25% over the coming year and a half.
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  And this kicked off the bull run from the NASDAQ going from 4000
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  to 44, 100. The headlines in 1996 read
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  almost exactly like what they do today.
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  Low to no job growth, labor tightness, sticky inflation that
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  the Fed was fighting, low wage growth, employers not hiring,
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  and a lack of competitiveness from the United States in key
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  industries like telecom. Alan Greenspan had a monetary
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  tightening policy in 9394 to fight inflation.
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  And after that, here's the comments that he made to justify
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  the rate cuts as a result of monetary tightening initiated in
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  early 1994. Inflationary pressures have
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  receded enough to accommodate a modest adjustment in monetary
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  conditions. Mark my words.
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  You're going to hear comments like these from Jerome Powell,
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  if not on Wednesday, in the next meeting in October.
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  And what also happened at the same time was the unleashing of
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  American in global innovation in the telecoms industry.
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  This happened in 1996 with the Telecommunications Act Bill
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  Clinton sought to unleash the Internet and American innovation
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  in this key industry and famously signed this document
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  with an electronic pin. Sounds like the same things
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  we've been hearing from the Trump administration about AI
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  dominance, crypto dominance, energy dominance.
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  So how does this relate to today?
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  Well, Jerome Powell is under the same pressure in implementing
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  the same playbook that Alan Greenspan did in the mid 90s.
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  And what's also interesting is that if he cuts rates with the
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  SP 500 at all time highs, well, that'll be just the third time
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  that this has happened since 1996, the first time it
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  happened. And right now, we're seeing the
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  same playbook unleashed with crypto AI in energy that we saw
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  with the Telecommunications Act in 1996.
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  Listen to Cynthia Lemus talking about the crypto innovation that
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  will be signed into law by December at the latest.
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  Well, we're finally embracing President Trump's goal of having
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  the United States remaining the digital asset capital of the
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  world. We shouldn't be ceding that role
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  to the United Arab Emirates or to Singapore.
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  Even Japan, which is notoriously cautious, has a more robust
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  digital asset regulatory framework than we do because
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  they're starting to embrace innovation.
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  And it's very important the United States retain that role.
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  We did stable coins first. The Genius Act passed, it's now
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  law. And that provided the momentum
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  we needed to do market structure.
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  So the House passed a market structure bill, it's called the
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  Clarity Act. We in the Senate are going to
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  mark up in the Senate Making Committee a market structure
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  bill in September. The AG committee will do theirs
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  in October because they've got the commodities jurisdiction.
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  The Senate Banking Committee has the securities jurisdiction.
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  Then we'll fold them together with clarity and hopefully get
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  this across the finish line by Thanksgiving or at the latest,
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  Christmas. This is going to lead to the
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  same run up that we saw in the.com era.
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  Now, if you go back and you listen to the full clip of Brian
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  Armstrong when he made his $1 million Bitcoin prediction,
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  well, are you starting to see how these things are lining up
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  with how the world looked and felt in 1996?
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  I, I, you know, the rough idea I have in my head is like, we'll
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  see $1,000,000. Bitcoin by 20-30 and there's
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  high error bars around these things.
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  But you know, just to give you a couple of data points, right,
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  it's like we're starting to see regulatory clarity emerge in the
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  United States, which I think is a bellwether for the rest of the
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  G20. Have the Genius Act passed now
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  for stable coins, but this market structure bill is being
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  debated in the Senate. Fingers crossed something could
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  happen by the end of this year. That would be a huge milestone.
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  the United States government now has a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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  So that is, if you'd asked me five years ago, that would have
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  been kind of like vision board and someone would have said
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  you're crazy, like the United States government's not going to
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  officially hold Bitcoin. But if, you know, if they do
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  that, which there's not an executive order to do, I think a
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  bunch of other countries are going to do that.
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  We've seen a lot of interest from sovereigns, right?
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  Coinbase actually provides crypto services to about 140
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  government entities that believe it or not, like at both federal,
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  state, local and internationally.
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  So governments are now getting more and more engaged in this
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  and you can imagine the big pools of capital around the
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  world and there's a lot of so I don't, I don't see the
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  regulatory thing going away. That was one of the big risks is
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  like, is the government going to shut this down?
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  I think that risk has been severely diminished.
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  And then you know, is there going to be some flaw found in
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  the Bitcoin protocol? I think that's been severely
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  combed over at this point. We need to make sure we upgrade
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  it to a post quantum cryptography but.
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  Are elliptic curves already post quantum or no?
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  They are theoretically I believe I don't no one really good to
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  nail this down untested, but yeah, I believe there is a path
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  where the Bitcoin Core team and Ethereum and Salon, everyone
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  they're looking at proposals now to upgrade to definitely post
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  Quantum. Yeah.
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  So, yeah, I think the list of kind of risks is getting
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  diminished. And at the same time, the amount
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  of demand, like the amount of institutional money just sitting
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  on the sidelines waiting for this next bill to land, you
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  know, is these are the the big institutions I talked to,
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  they're holding 1% of the portfolio in Bitcoin.
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  And I'm like, what would it be to 5:00 to 10:00?
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  And they say regulatory clarity, that's it.
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  So I think we'll continue to see huge inflows of capital.
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  The ETFs have been huge. If Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000,
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  well, do you want to sell it? Probably not.
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  You probably do want to borrow against the value that's been
• 6:52
  created since you bought Bitcoin, and you can do that by
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• 7:29
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  hits $1,000,000, a coin like Brian Armstrong predicts by
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  20-30 is to actually understand how to custody your Bitcoin, how
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  to hold it safely, securely, privately and confidently.
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  You could do that by getting a coach just like you would a
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  consultation with their team at the bitcoinway.com/simply
• 7:59
  Bitcoin. The implications of what happens
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  when Bitcoin hits $1 million are pretty staggering.
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  And I don't think people understand the implications of
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  $1 million Bitcoin, $10 million Bitcoin.
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  They're not going to understand the debasement that's happening
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  in the underlying currency, the dollar.
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  And when you look back to 1990, five, 1996, there's no way that
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  you could have predicted a company like Amazon would be
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  worth trillions of dollars. And that's not just Amazon,
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  that's Google, that's Meta, that's Apple and plenty of other
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  companies that are approaching the trillion dollar mark.
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  The number trillion would have been unfathomable at that time.
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  And the number $10 million Bitcoin, well, that'll be
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  unfathomable as well. People who look at this and are
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  saying, Oh, well, once it gets to a million, I'm going to sell
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  and I'm going to take some massive, you know, returns.
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  They don't. What they're really saying is
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  they have no clue what's actually playing out here 'cause
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  if this, if, if this goes to a million, it's going to 10
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  million, it's going to 100 million.
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  It's going to look like a Zimbabwe note of 100 trillion
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  units. And that's what I think if you
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  think it's just going to go up to 500,000 and then it's going
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  to kind of stop there. And that's kind of like where
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  where it ends and like that's the end of Bitcoin.
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  It's now, you know, stabilized at 500,000.
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  You really do not understand like what's playing out here.
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  And, and I think the higher that you go like that, the more, the
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  more aggressive the bid is actually going to get and, and
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  kind of get away from legacy policy makers and people
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  controlling currencies, Fiat currencies as, as we know them.
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  Now. When, when does that happen?
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  I don't know when that happens. I don't know if it's this cycle,
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  next cycle or whatever. I, I don't know, but people that
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  are that are suggesting that Bitcoin is going to have smaller
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  and smaller returns into the future, I think are getting
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  duped a little bit as to like what kind of plays out in the
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  middle of that S curve. We will hit dollars, that
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  parody, and it's going to happen suddenly, not gradually.
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  As Bitcoin becomes the new world reserve asset, the price will go
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  up. It'll go to 1,000,000.
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  It'll go to 10 and then it'll reach dollar SAT parity.
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  And probably before that happens, we hit a terminus point
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  where, you know, you stop pricing things in dollars
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  because it doesn't make sense anymore.
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  And there's tons of historical examples of this, right?
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  Like fast failure of Fiat currencies is the norm.
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  It's not the exception. Look at the German, the German
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  mark, right? That's fast fail.
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  Every currency, every Fiat currency, fast fails.
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  It doesn't fail over 50 to 100 years except for maybe the
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  dollar. It's failed over 100 years, but
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  it's coming to the a close. But as it increases in value,
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  then of course you see less volatility because it takes more
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  to make a dent. If you go back to I think last
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  year, right, the Saxony government in Germany, they
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  dumped 50,000 and that made a bigger impact than the 80,000.
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  So you can already see in a very short time frame a far more
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  muted effect of coins being dropped.
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  And the reality is, is when this happens, the people that don't
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  own assets are not going to be able to participate in this.
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  And the gap between the rich and the poor is going to grow wider
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  and wider. The bottom 50% of households now
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  just own 2.5% of wealth in the United States.
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  History says that rate cuts are going to lead to new all time
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  highs in assets just like they did in 1996.
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  And that's going to separate the gap between the people who own
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  things and the people who don't. This won't just be with houses,
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  as the major wealth and equity built moving forward will be in
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  stocks will be in digital assets and commodities.
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  But by bidding up home prices to very expensive levels, it makes,
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  you know, it's good for those that have a home and it's good
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  for those who've been able to lock in a short like a long
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  duration fixed rate mortgage against it.
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  But it's very bad for those who are trying to enter the home
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  buying market for the first time.
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  This is also generally something you see in countries like
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  Australia or Canada where they have a policy of kind of trying
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  to keep prices elevated because so much of the the country kind
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  of has their wealth in real estate.
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  But then the loses that are those that are trying to buy a
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  house not for investment purposes, but for the actual
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  utility purposes of using it. So the moral the story is be an
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  asset owner own Bitcoin. The mania phase hasn't even
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  begun yet and now hopefully you have some historical context to
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  understand why Bitcoin will run from where it is today to
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  numbers like $1,000,000 Bitcoin in 20-30, just like stocks ran
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  from what they did in 1996 to 2001.
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  Of the ways you can continue to level up on your Bitcoin journey
• 12:48
  is by meeting Bitcoiners in real life, and there's a great way to
• 12:50
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• 12:57
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• 13:02
  down there. Hope you get value from these
• 13:03
  shows. As always, this is Dante Cook
• 13:05
  with Bitcoin. Simply Happy stacking.