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Astros/Orioles MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Friday 8/22/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
0:06
Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:09
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:12
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:15
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
0:18
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:20
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
0:25
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
0:28
Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
0:34
Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
0:38
Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm trying to burn my
0:42
Speaker 1: browins haack, Man, I don't know what is going on
0:44
Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
0:47
Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
0:50
Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day it
0:53
Speaker 1: is anymore. I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man,
0:55
Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
0:59
Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
1:03
Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
1:07
Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five. The
1:10
Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
1:13
Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
1:15
Speaker 1: about this anymore. To the slumps, the slump discontinues, the
1:19
Speaker 1: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
1:25
Speaker 1: know what I should do at this point other than
1:26
Speaker 1: potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back
1:35
Speaker 1: with you. This is better off dead. Friday, August twenty second.
1:40
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to get right into it. Man. Hopefully
1:43
Speaker 1: you guys joined me for my I did a college
1:45
Speaker 1: football a bit of a preview show last night, so
1:48
Speaker 1: that's on the YouTube channel right now. I should probably
1:50
Speaker 1: get it up on the audio, but descript is gonna
1:53
Speaker 1: limit me eventually unless I start paying even more money
1:55
Speaker 1: for them, So we'll see what I want to do
1:57
Speaker 1: with that. So go check that out, though you're interested
2:00
Speaker 1: in just stupid predictions based on what we think are
2:03
Speaker 1: gonna who we think are gonna be, like the conference
2:06
Speaker 1: winners and maybe the champion college football. I will probably
2:09
Speaker 1: be back tonight, by the way, with a week zero
2:12
Speaker 1: college football show, which it'll be a quicker one because
2:14
Speaker 1: there really aren't that many games, but I'm probably gonna
2:17
Speaker 1: have one play for tomorrow as college football actually officially
2:21
Speaker 1: begins tomorrow. Yesterday on the show here where we went
2:25
Speaker 1: two and zero, two very easy winners. Actually, we had
2:28
Speaker 1: the Chicago Sky plus fifteen plus fifteen and a half.
2:31
Speaker 1: They won the game outright. They were never losing the
2:34
Speaker 1: game by more than seven and yeah, just easy wire
2:37
Speaker 1: to wire cover and they wound up winning the game outright.
2:40
Speaker 1: So that was a good call on that one. And
2:43
Speaker 1: then we had the Houston Astro. So it just seemed
2:45
Speaker 1: like a lot of professional betters were not buying that
2:48
Speaker 1: and more buying into the fact that Houston wasn't able
2:51
Speaker 1: to score at all recently. But I was looking at
2:53
Speaker 1: the specific situation. I said, Houston was gonna get it done.
2:57
Speaker 1: They did. They scored seven runs. They scored more runs
3:00
Speaker 1: last night than they scored in the prior seven games combined,
3:06
Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. Easy wins seven to two yesterday for
3:09
Speaker 1: the Astros. I mean, there's still the better team, man.
3:12
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just at some point it's like, come on.
3:15
Speaker 1: So we'll move on to today. We do have WNBA,
3:18
Speaker 1: which I'm not going to give out anything in the
3:20
Speaker 1: WNBA here today Minnesota at Indiana debatably is somewhat of
3:27
Speaker 1: an interesting matchup. I guess in that Indiana is now
3:30
Speaker 1: in another injured player theory spot because Sophie Cunningham is
3:33
Speaker 1: now injured and I believe she's not coming back, and
3:37
Speaker 1: she got intentionally injured in their previous game against Connecticut,
3:41
Speaker 1: So Indiana might step it up just because she's out.
3:45
Speaker 1: So you might get a bigger effort out of Indiana here.
3:48
Speaker 1: Whereas Minnesota, I'm not sure how much they really have
3:52
Speaker 1: left to play for because they're pretty much guaranteed the
3:56
Speaker 1: one seed in the West at this point almost, but
3:59
Speaker 1: they may show up just because it is Indiana based
4:02
Speaker 1: on the name, it's still Indiana, but Caitlin Clark is
4:04
Speaker 1: still out. They keep pushing her timetable back. I really
4:07
Speaker 1: don't think she's coming back either, So Indiana they're in trouble, man.
4:12
Speaker 1: I mean, they might miss the playoffs, and even even
4:14
Speaker 1: if they make the playoffs, it's like what players are
4:16
Speaker 1: they even gonna have back at this point, so I
4:18
Speaker 1: don't know. Minnesota is also want a back to back
4:21
Speaker 1: today because they played a tough game yesterday at Atlanta.
4:24
Speaker 1: So this really isn't a very good spot for Minnesota.
4:27
Speaker 1: Three straight road games, losing the first two of them,
4:30
Speaker 1: but to New York and Atlanta, the top two teams
4:32
Speaker 1: in the East. It's a tough spot for them, man,
4:36
Speaker 1: a tough scheduling spot. Indiana is returning home from that
4:38
Speaker 1: Connecticut game, but they do have a day off. I
4:41
Speaker 1: think one day off, maybe two. Minnesota actually let me
4:45
Speaker 1: look at up jammed or their schedule is here really quick,
4:47
Speaker 1: because I think I would have to lean to Indiana
4:49
Speaker 1: in this game they played. Yeah, they're playing three games
4:52
Speaker 1: at four days. Minnesota is all on the road, so
4:55
Speaker 1: pretty bad spot for them, So I would have to
4:58
Speaker 1: lean to Indiana. Despite every that's going on there, Minnesota
5:01
Speaker 1: is up from five to seven now on the road.
5:03
Speaker 1: I think the only way that I could look to
5:05
Speaker 1: play that game would be to take the points with Indiana.
5:07
Speaker 1: I think they may step it up the first game
5:09
Speaker 1: without cunning him there, and they've still been playing pretty
5:13
Speaker 1: well without Clark, so we'll see what happens there. Seattle
5:16
Speaker 1: is at Dallas. Dallas is coming off a pretty big
5:20
Speaker 1: game where they they were in a close game against
5:23
Speaker 1: la man Becker's for Dallas. They're rookie there out of Yukon.
5:28
Speaker 1: She set some sort of rookie record. I think. I
5:31
Speaker 1: think she scored like forty four points in that game
5:33
Speaker 1: or something ridiculous, and they still wound up losing on
5:36
Speaker 1: a buzzer beater, which I think that could carry over
5:40
Speaker 1: into this game. Man, they're turning on from a road trip,
5:42
Speaker 1: although I know it's only from going to Vegas in LA,
5:45
Speaker 1: and they are facing Seattle, who They're probably gonna be
5:47
Speaker 1: focused on Seattle because basically any of these other teams
5:50
Speaker 1: in the West, they're all like contending to make playoff
5:53
Speaker 1: spots here. So Dallas may not be totally unfocused here,
5:58
Speaker 1: but I think it is still a bad spot the
6:00
Speaker 1: way they lost that game. Seattle does need to win
6:03
Speaker 1: because they need to actually get themselves into the playoffs here.
6:06
Speaker 1: They're coming off beating Chicago barely, so they might have
6:09
Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum now carrying out on the
6:11
Speaker 1: road as they continue their road trip here. I would
6:15
Speaker 1: probably have to lean to Seattle on that one, but
6:16
Speaker 1: you're laying a price for it. It's not from six
6:18
Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half here, so
6:21
Speaker 1: I mean it's a bit much of a price to
6:23
Speaker 1: lay on the road there. So I probably wouldn't do it,
6:25
Speaker 1: although they are definitely the better team and the record
6:28
Speaker 1: really kind of under sells Seattle. I think they're better
6:31
Speaker 1: than the record actually looks. And then Golden State at Phoenix.
6:34
Speaker 1: This is a quick road revenge spot as Phoenix just
6:37
Speaker 1: won at Golden State a couple of games ago in
6:40
Speaker 1: the returning home from a road trip. Although I know
6:42
Speaker 1: they're returning from Vegas back home, which is not really
6:46
Speaker 1: a huge leg of the journey there, but it was
6:48
Speaker 1: a three game road trip returning home. You kind of
6:51
Speaker 1: get distracted potentially you have stuff to do back at
6:54
Speaker 1: home because they just be Golden State on the road,
6:56
Speaker 1: they might not take them as seriously this time. Golden
6:59
Speaker 1: State needs the game a little bit more. Is Phoenix
7:02
Speaker 1: is pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs here, Golden
7:04
Speaker 1: State still needs to win, I think, to be able
7:07
Speaker 1: to try to get one of these playoff spots here,
7:10
Speaker 1: so they are probably gonna be a little bit more
7:11
Speaker 1: motivated for that reason. They're starting a road trip after
7:14
Speaker 1: these two losses, so I would slightly lean to Golden
7:17
Speaker 1: State Phoenix up for five to six and a half though,
7:20
Speaker 1: so the line has moved towards Phoenix. Go figure one
7:24
Speaker 1: other thing I will say about Minnesota, by the way,
7:26
Speaker 1: is Minnesota is actually without Collier, who was like she
7:30
Speaker 1: was gonna be MVP. Man, She's like the best player
7:33
Speaker 1: in the entire league, and she's been out for almost
7:36
Speaker 1: a month now, and Minnesota is still far and away
7:39
Speaker 1: like the best record in the league, even playing without
7:42
Speaker 1: the best player in the league. That's how good Minnesota
7:44
Speaker 1: is this year. So that's insane as well, good relative
7:49
Speaker 1: to the rest of the rest of the WNBA. At least,
7:53
Speaker 1: we'll go to Major League Baseball here. Now, Yeah, I
7:57
Speaker 1: was gonna say, if this website behaves here, we got
8:01
Speaker 1: a full slate of baseball here. Man, I'm gonna give
8:03
Speaker 1: up three baseball players. They gotta figure out how to
8:05
Speaker 1: break this thing down. I'm gonna give aut to play
8:07
Speaker 1: in this horrendous Colorado Pittsburgh game. So I'll wait until
8:10
Speaker 1: the best bets segment, which I forgot. I'll throw the
8:13
Speaker 1: rundown graphic up here, even though everything is the rundown, man,
8:18
Speaker 1: but it is a baseball specific graphic. At least Washington
8:23
Speaker 1: at Philadelphia. Washington does have a disadvantage scheduling wise, because
8:27
Speaker 1: they played yesterday and Philadelphia did not Philadelphia actually staying
8:31
Speaker 1: at home too, I believe, because they were just they
8:33
Speaker 1: just swept Seattle. They split a series with Washington before that,
8:37
Speaker 1: so they did just see Washington as well. And I
8:40
Speaker 1: think we have a matchup between two pitchers that I
8:43
Speaker 1: believe actually faced each other during that other series too,
8:46
Speaker 1: which is somewhat interesting. Washington, because they played yesterday, they
8:50
Speaker 1: were had a little bit of a rest disadvantage here.
8:53
Speaker 1: They used a bunch of their relief pitchers and their
8:55
Speaker 1: bullpen is already the worst of the two. So the
8:57
Speaker 1: bullpen situation definitely not good for Washing Washington. Philadelphia also
9:01
Speaker 1: has the better offense. What about the starting pitching, Well,
9:05
Speaker 1: Kate Cavali, you could definitely argue that he's the better
9:08
Speaker 1: of these two pitchers. I mean, he's the younger pitcher
9:10
Speaker 1: of the two, probably has a higher ceiling for Washington here.
9:13
Speaker 1: Two point two era one point two to nine whip
9:15
Speaker 1: is a bit high. It's in a small sample, but
9:18
Speaker 1: he is bad on the road seven point two era
9:21
Speaker 1: in the road. But again, he's only made three starts,
9:23
Speaker 1: and they keep kind of ramping up by his pitch
9:25
Speaker 1: count a little bit, ramping up his innings at least
9:29
Speaker 1: although he was just more efficient with his pitches last
9:31
Speaker 1: time out. He actually went seven shutout innings, seven hits,
9:35
Speaker 1: no walks, five strikeouts against this Philadelphia team while it
9:38
Speaker 1: was in Washington. Maybe had a little bit of an
9:40
Speaker 1: extra advantage because Philly had never seen him before, and
9:43
Speaker 1: now that they do, maybe they'll do better against Hibody.
9:45
Speaker 1: That was a really good start for Cavally, So maybe
9:48
Speaker 1: you will do well again here. It's very difficult to say.
9:50
Speaker 1: I think I do think I probably prefer him over
9:55
Speaker 1: a Walker, though as far as he started so against Philly,
9:58
Speaker 1: Cavalli he has more than just that one start against him,
10:00
Speaker 1: I think, maybe not because we see seven hits here,
10:03
Speaker 1: but in twenty six at bats, five strikeouts, no walks,
10:06
Speaker 1: two sixty nine and average six point fifteen ops. So
10:09
Speaker 1: I think that is basically just that one start. So Cavali,
10:12
Speaker 1: I mean, he does have pretty good numbers against Philly,
10:16
Speaker 1: but again they have seen him now and they just
10:18
Speaker 1: saw him recently, so they might be able to hit
10:19
Speaker 1: him better this time out. Tew On Walker pitching for
10:22
Speaker 1: Philadelphia decent numbers this year three point three four ERA,
10:26
Speaker 1: one point two to nine whip again too high. I
10:29
Speaker 1: think both these guys have basically the same whip Walker
10:32
Speaker 1: is actually worse at home with a four point one
10:34
Speaker 1: two ERA. He started pitching deeper into games recently, though.
10:37
Speaker 1: He's gonna at least six innings in every start this month,
10:40
Speaker 1: giving up only three runs combined over those three starts.
10:45
Speaker 1: Doesn't strike out a lot of guys nine strikeouts, but
10:47
Speaker 1: his walk rate has gone down, so he's not a
10:50
Speaker 1: walker right now, giving up three walks this month, one
10:52
Speaker 1: point four to five ERA this month, including to start
10:55
Speaker 1: against Washington, which I believe was that start where he
10:58
Speaker 1: lost to Cavali, But he didn't do bad. He went
11:00
Speaker 1: six to two thirds touring runs, allowed, three strikeouts, two walks,
11:04
Speaker 1: not a great ratio, but again, Walker not really a
11:07
Speaker 1: strikeout guy, but he does too fine against Washington, more
11:11
Speaker 1: than fine an eighty two career at bats one ninety
11:14
Speaker 1: five batting average allowed five point fifty one ohps. The
11:17
Speaker 1: only really bad stat here is that he is a
11:19
Speaker 1: walker versus them eleven strikeouts to ten walks. So I mean,
11:25
Speaker 1: I probably slightly prefer Cavale with the starting pitching matchup,
11:29
Speaker 1: but I don't think there's any way that you could
11:31
Speaker 1: deal with Washington's bullpen here, we have eighty eight percent
11:34
Speaker 1: of tickets, only eighty seven percent of the cash on Philly,
11:36
Speaker 1: and they're up to minus one eighty. I don't really
11:39
Speaker 1: see any way that you could play at Philadelphia money
11:41
Speaker 1: line really in this case, even though they do have
11:42
Speaker 1: the rest advantage. You could think about playing maybe the
11:46
Speaker 1: run line full game on Philadelphia because they should have
11:49
Speaker 1: an advantage later in the game with a bullpen. The
11:52
Speaker 1: bullpen's here, and with the rest advantage here early in
11:55
Speaker 1: the game, I think Washington has a little bit more
11:57
Speaker 1: of an advantage. I don't know if you want to
11:59
Speaker 1: look to play Washington like run line in the first
12:01
Speaker 1: five or something like that, But sometimes, man, I think
12:05
Speaker 1: the first five will go the opposite way of the
12:08
Speaker 1: full game, which is crazy, but with baseball, it's like
12:12
Speaker 1: so discreete like the difference between starting pitching and bullpen
12:15
Speaker 1: so and the money is coming in on the under
12:17
Speaker 1: for what it's worth here totals flipped a nine and
12:19
Speaker 1: a half juice to the under. Of course, we know
12:21
Speaker 1: the last time these two pitchers faced off, it was
12:23
Speaker 1: a two nothing final. Sixty two percent tickets on the over,
12:26
Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the cash on the under. I
12:28
Speaker 1: don't expect it to be a two run game again.
12:30
Speaker 1: I mean both offices should do a little bit better
12:33
Speaker 1: this time out because they both saw these pitchers. But
12:36
Speaker 1: I could see the argument for the under again that
12:38
Speaker 1: both these pitchers do have good matchup numbers against these opponents.
12:42
Speaker 1: Could be an under still early in the game, But
12:44
Speaker 1: if you went under, I would limit it to the
12:45
Speaker 1: first five innings and not deal with these bullpens, neither
12:49
Speaker 1: of which are actually that good. Red Sox at New York,
12:52
Speaker 1: the Boston Red Sox, my Boston Red Sox. I kind
12:56
Speaker 1: of nailed that game yesterday, Man, even though I didn't
12:58
Speaker 1: give it out as a play. I said Yankees probably
13:01
Speaker 1: were the way to lead in the first five yesterday,
13:03
Speaker 1: but Red Sox bullpen advantage and full game, which both
13:07
Speaker 1: of those wound up being correct, as the Red Sox
13:10
Speaker 1: were down three to two at the end of five,
13:11
Speaker 1: and then they wound up winning the game six to three.
13:14
Speaker 1: Roman Anthony Man, one of the best young heroes in baseball,
13:17
Speaker 1: hasn't really been hitting for power, but he did jack
13:19
Speaker 1: one out of the yard, very hitter friendly park in
13:23
Speaker 1: Yankee Stadium for left handed bats. His home run last
13:26
Speaker 1: night I don't think would have gone out in Fenway,
13:29
Speaker 1: probably one of the only parks where it wouldn't go out,
13:31
Speaker 1: But it did easily in Yankee Stadium with the short
13:35
Speaker 1: right field there, so I mean, yeah, kudos to him
13:39
Speaker 1: and that was a huge tour on home run to
13:41
Speaker 1: extend the Red Sox lead to what was the finals
13:44
Speaker 1: six to three. Red Sox have actually won six out
13:48
Speaker 1: of seven against the Yankees this year. Red Sox they
13:50
Speaker 1: step it up to play the Yankees. Man. Even though
13:52
Speaker 1: the Red Sox have not been the better team over
13:54
Speaker 1: the last few years, they've played pretty well in their
13:56
Speaker 1: matchups against the Yankees. Will they do it again today,
14:00
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean the Red Sox I would say,
14:02
Speaker 1: still have a bullpen advantage of both bullpens saw a
14:04
Speaker 1: decent amount of usage yesterday. Red Sox use five relief
14:08
Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday the Yankees used at least four. I think
14:10
Speaker 1: Dave's five as well, so a lot of bullpen usage
14:13
Speaker 1: both sides. Red Sox to have the better bullpen, Yankees
14:17
Speaker 1: have the better offense. Starting pitching is interesting because current
14:23
Speaker 1: form is kind of different than which of these pitchers
14:26
Speaker 1: is actually better. Brian Beao is pitching for the Red Sox,
14:29
Speaker 1: and I don't think he's generally the better of these
14:31
Speaker 1: two starters. He has been pitching better more recently, though
14:35
Speaker 1: three point two to three ERA, one point two to
14:36
Speaker 1: six whip is still too high. I mean I always
14:39
Speaker 1: had a problem with it, Like his ERA was always
14:41
Speaker 1: low and he was always getting ground balls and stuff,
14:43
Speaker 1: but his whip was always way way high. But he's
14:46
Speaker 1: gotten that down a little bit too. He's kind of
14:47
Speaker 1: gotten his walks under control, so that's better. He is
14:50
Speaker 1: slightly worse on the road three point six ERA, but
14:53
Speaker 1: again he's been a lot better recently, started going way
14:56
Speaker 1: deeper into games. He had a two point seven to
14:58
Speaker 1: nine year range July. This this month of three starts
15:01
Speaker 1: three point five ERA, one bad start against San Diego
15:04
Speaker 1: in the mix there, which was his one road start,
15:07
Speaker 1: but generally pretty good. He did face off against the
15:10
Speaker 1: Yankees in June at Fenway and he went seven shutout
15:13
Speaker 1: innings against him with eight strikeouts three walks, so he
15:16
Speaker 1: did pretty well in that game against the Yankees. Overall,
15:19
Speaker 1: against the Yankees he has decent numbers and ninety one
15:22
Speaker 1: career at bats, thirty one strikeouts only thirty one startouts,
15:25
Speaker 1: but eleven walks is too high, but two fifty three
15:28
Speaker 1: batting average seven to twenty nine oh ps so including
15:31
Speaker 1: this year one of his best starts ever against the Yankees,
15:34
Speaker 1: He's held his own against the Yankees, even back when
15:36
Speaker 1: he wasn't that good. His numbers are not terrible against
15:39
Speaker 1: the Yankees. Yankees have Max Freed pitching, who is still
15:42
Speaker 1: their ace, I mean three point two six the R
15:45
Speaker 1: one point one two whip. He's been better at home
15:48
Speaker 1: two point six seventy RA at home. But again, he's
15:51
Speaker 1: really struggled for the last like two months. At this
15:53
Speaker 1: point in July, he had a five point five to
15:55
Speaker 1: four ERA. This month a nine ERA. I mean, he's
16:00
Speaker 1: only struggling right now. He faced Texas Saint Louis this month,
16:03
Speaker 1: didn't really do well in those two starts, giving up
16:05
Speaker 1: four and then seven earned runs in five innings each.
16:09
Speaker 1: Saint Louis really is struggling offense recently too, so that's
16:12
Speaker 1: or at least maybe until even more recently, but they
16:15
Speaker 1: were struggling really badly for a while. Houston kind of
16:19
Speaker 1: has been struggling a bit too, and he didn't really
16:21
Speaker 1: do well against them either. So he's not in good
16:23
Speaker 1: form right now, Max Freed. I mean, his numbers were
16:26
Speaker 1: just so good early in the season that he could
16:29
Speaker 1: afford to have two months of bad pitching basically, it'd
16:32
Speaker 1: still have his numbers look decent. His numbers are good
16:35
Speaker 1: against the Red Sox, doing forty at bats, fifteen to
16:37
Speaker 1: six strikeout walker ratio one to seventy five average, allowed
16:41
Speaker 1: six seventy seven ops. So he has done well against
16:45
Speaker 1: the Red Sox generally. He did face them once this year,
16:49
Speaker 1: went seven innings at Fenway. This might have been the
16:51
Speaker 1: game against It might have been against Bao actually, because
16:54
Speaker 1: the Red Sox won that game two to nine. Thing
16:56
Speaker 1: Freed did well two earned runs, allowed nine strikeouts, to walk,
17:00
Speaker 1: but got no run support in that game. Yeah, that
17:02
Speaker 1: was Bao. So it's a rematch now between Bao and
17:06
Speaker 1: Freed here. So maybe a little bit of an extra
17:09
Speaker 1: motivational edge on the side of the Yankees here, But
17:12
Speaker 1: Max Freed is definitely not the pitcher that's in the
17:14
Speaker 1: better form here. Yankees are getting the money the rougher
17:17
Speaker 1: minus one sixty seven to minus one eighty. Red Sox
17:20
Speaker 1: really kind of getting disrespected in this market here, Max Freed,
17:24
Speaker 1: Yankees usually you're gonna pay attacks like you're usually not
17:27
Speaker 1: gonna get value on a Yankee game with Freed pitching,
17:31
Speaker 1: and I don't think you really are here. Seventy percent
17:33
Speaker 1: of tickets on the ninety three percent of the cash
17:35
Speaker 1: coming in on them, so the money does seem to
17:36
Speaker 1: be coming in on them. Going full game on that,
17:40
Speaker 1: I'm not really sure I would agree with that. I
17:41
Speaker 1: could see more of an argument again, just like last
17:43
Speaker 1: night for Yankees first five, although obviously it would not
17:46
Speaker 1: shock me at all. The Red Sox lost this game
17:50
Speaker 1: fifty five percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
17:52
Speaker 1: cash on the over as well total just sitting at
17:54
Speaker 1: eight and a half, I think you that we might
17:57
Speaker 1: get a high scoring game. It is possible. With Freed
17:59
Speaker 1: not being a great form right now, Bao could potentially
18:02
Speaker 1: give something up here and the bullpens are both pretty used,
18:05
Speaker 1: so if you're going with the over, you're definitely gonna
18:07
Speaker 1: go full game on that in factor in the bullpens there,
18:11
Speaker 1: But I don't even know if that might be the
18:13
Speaker 1: best way to play that game. I don't even know
18:14
Speaker 1: if I really have a recommendation there. Houston, Baltimore, I'm
18:18
Speaker 1: gonna give out a play in this series again, which
18:20
Speaker 1: we'll get to later in the show. In the best
18:23
Speaker 1: bet segment, Kansas City at Detroit. This is kind of
18:27
Speaker 1: a weird one man. Detroit just swept Houston, but they
18:32
Speaker 1: had yesterday off, so Detroit is playing well. They do
18:35
Speaker 1: still need to win. I mean, Kansas City isn't second
18:37
Speaker 1: place now. Kansas City has jumped over Cleveland here in
18:41
Speaker 1: the division again, so Detroit kind of has some motivation
18:44
Speaker 1: here to try to fend off the second place team
18:47
Speaker 1: in the division here. But Detroit might be in a
18:48
Speaker 1: letdown spot because they are coming off dominating Houston in
18:52
Speaker 1: this series. That was a big series win for Detroit there,
18:54
Speaker 1: sweeping them. But Detroit does have a rest edge because
18:57
Speaker 1: they they had yesterday off. Kansas City play yesterday and
19:00
Speaker 1: now they're traveling into Detroit and Kansas City used most
19:04
Speaker 1: of their bullpend. They use a lot of their bullpens.
19:06
Speaker 1: Even though generally I would probably say Kansas City has
19:08
Speaker 1: the better of these two bullpens. They used so much
19:12
Speaker 1: of their bullpen while Detroit was off, I think that
19:14
Speaker 1: kind of negates their bullpen advantage quite a bit here.
19:17
Speaker 1: So bullpens are pretty negated in this case, so Detroit
19:20
Speaker 1: does have some rest advantages, pretty big rest advantages here
19:24
Speaker 1: and not having to travel. Starting pitching is maybe kind
19:29
Speaker 1: of a different story here. Obviously offense, Detroit is the
19:32
Speaker 1: better offense, but yeah, starting pitching wise here pretty interesting here.
19:38
Speaker 1: As we have Ryan burge Or pitching for Kansas City.
19:42
Speaker 1: They got him over from San Diego. His numbers on
19:45
Speaker 1: the season continue to be good. Two point seven to
19:47
Speaker 1: five ERA, one point one to three WHIP. Still don't
19:50
Speaker 1: know if I'm sold on this guy, but he's been
19:52
Speaker 1: better on the road as well two point three six ERA.
19:57
Speaker 1: Since being acquired by Kansas City as a two point
19:59
Speaker 1: seve seventeen to five strike a walk RACEIO in three starts,
20:03
Speaker 1: he's got at least five and two thirds innings in
20:05
Speaker 1: every one of them, so he actually started going deeper
20:07
Speaker 1: into games with them as well. Even though kids the
20:09
Speaker 1: City lost two of them, it wasn't really his fault
20:11
Speaker 1: because he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs than
20:13
Speaker 1: any of them. Only good offense he face was the
20:15
Speaker 1: Red Sox, though, and then his strikeout rate was a
20:18
Speaker 1: lot higher against Minnesota and the White Sox, who are
20:21
Speaker 1: not good offenses. Detroit will be a step up offensively
20:24
Speaker 1: from those two teams. So he's got to face Detroit now.
20:27
Speaker 1: Detroit has never seen him though, so Perjere does have
20:30
Speaker 1: that unfamiliarity edge therehere. Detroit has never seen him before,
20:33
Speaker 1: so they might have to figure him out and kind
20:35
Speaker 1: of adjust to him. So Perge, I think he may
20:38
Speaker 1: actually have the starting pitching edge here against Casey Mize,
20:41
Speaker 1: because you know, if you watch my show, I don't
20:43
Speaker 1: think Casey Mize is really as good as his numbers
20:45
Speaker 1: look for Detroit here three point six three ERA, one
20:48
Speaker 1: point two to four whip. His whip is starting to
20:50
Speaker 1: get a bit higher. He is a little bit better
20:53
Speaker 1: at home still three point four to eighty RA. He's
20:56
Speaker 1: been decent this month four point six seventy RA not great,
20:59
Speaker 1: but at night team to three strike at walk ratio
21:01
Speaker 1: and he's only allowed eleven hits in seventeen to third innings.
21:04
Speaker 1: That's actually pretty good. And his team has won all
21:06
Speaker 1: three of those games, so he is actually in decent
21:09
Speaker 1: form right now. But two of those games are against
21:11
Speaker 1: Minnesota on one was against Anaheim, so not exactly an
21:15
Speaker 1: offensive gaunt. Little of Anaheim's an okay offense. Kansas City
21:19
Speaker 1: is also a very weak offense though, so he does
21:22
Speaker 1: get to face a weak offense. However, his numbers are
21:25
Speaker 1: really bad against Kansas City in a big sample size
21:28
Speaker 1: of eighty nine at bats. I don't know how he's
21:30
Speaker 1: this bad against Kansas City, but he is ten to
21:33
Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratio three ninety three, batting average
21:36
Speaker 1: oneenty twenty seven ops. Some mies is at a starting
21:40
Speaker 1: pitching disadvantage here. Man. The money I believe is coming
21:43
Speaker 1: in on Kansas City here, and they do kind of
21:45
Speaker 1: need the game more as far as needing to remain
21:48
Speaker 1: in the playoff hunt. Detroit's down for minus one sixty
21:50
Speaker 1: to minus one forty two, sixty one percent of tickets
21:53
Speaker 1: on them, fifty nine percent of the cash coming in
21:55
Speaker 1: on Kansas City. If you were gonna do the Kansas
21:57
Speaker 1: City money line, I would limit it to the first
21:59
Speaker 1: five because, as I showed you, their bullpen is completely
22:02
Speaker 1: blown out, so I don't love them later in the
22:05
Speaker 1: game at all, and the Detroit with the rest edge
22:07
Speaker 1: that probably comes into play later in the game too,
22:10
Speaker 1: so I would not really love Kansas City full game
22:12
Speaker 1: at all. I could see the argument for the starting
22:14
Speaker 1: pitching matchup being in their favor there obviously, and going
22:17
Speaker 1: first five on that, but I don't want to touch
22:20
Speaker 1: it Toronto at Miami, I'm gonna give out a play
22:22
Speaker 1: on that. So I'm gonna have three plays today and
22:24
Speaker 1: that's gonna be the last of the three. The Mets
22:26
Speaker 1: at Atlanta. This is an interesting pitching matchup between two
22:30
Speaker 1: young pitchers here, and Atlanta does have a rest edge
22:33
Speaker 1: because they didn't play yesterday. But they are returning home
22:35
Speaker 1: from a road trip. I believe, Oh no, they're not.
22:37
Speaker 1: My mistake. Sorry, they returned last yearies they were home
22:40
Speaker 1: against the White Sox. My mistake. Atlanta actually playing some
22:43
Speaker 1: pretty good baseball right now. Man, Finally, maybe when it's
22:47
Speaker 1: too late, they finally start playing a little bit up
22:49
Speaker 1: to their potential. Here. Austin Riley, however, looks like he's
22:52
Speaker 1: gonna be out for the rest of the season. So
22:54
Speaker 1: the Braves losing one of their better bats here in
22:56
Speaker 1: Austin Riley, so that's not gonna help them. Really. They
23:00
Speaker 1: have won seven of the last eight games something like that,
23:03
Speaker 1: so they do have momentum right now. They did have
23:05
Speaker 1: yesterday off while the Mets had to play. The Mets
23:08
Speaker 1: lost to Washington, though, so again, Washington could be in
23:10
Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown spot by the way, after
23:12
Speaker 1: that win, although I don't think they're going to overlook Philadelphia,
23:15
Speaker 1: but the Mets, they might be a little bit pissed
23:17
Speaker 1: after that loss to Washington. The Mets they got a
23:20
Speaker 1: fight to remain in the playoffs. Man, I mean, they've
23:23
Speaker 1: been really really playing some bad baseball. So as far
23:25
Speaker 1: as which of these teams is playing better recently, it's
23:27
Speaker 1: obviously Atlanta. The Mets have been awful. I mean, they've
23:31
Speaker 1: lost so many of their recent games. They did have
23:33
Speaker 1: that stretcher they won three games in a row, but
23:35
Speaker 1: now they've lost two more in a row to Washington,
23:38
Speaker 1: including yesterday. So again, they don't have the rest that
23:41
Speaker 1: year because they played yesterday. They got to travel in
23:43
Speaker 1: here from Washington down to Atlanta. Mets us three relievers yesterday,
23:48
Speaker 1: So I mean their bullpend still somewhat intact. I think
23:52
Speaker 1: they probably do have the better bullpen, other than the
23:54
Speaker 1: fact that they're a little bit less rested here, I'd
23:57
Speaker 1: probably give the bullpen advantage to the Mets. Otherwise, it's
24:00
Speaker 1: only very slight. Actually it's slighter than I thought here,
24:02
Speaker 1: as you can see very much not much of a
24:05
Speaker 1: difference between those two teams e RA wise on the season,
24:08
Speaker 1: So maybe actually you do have to give the bullpen
24:11
Speaker 1: edge to Atlanta because either rested starting pitching. I think
24:16
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give the starting pitching edge to the Mets.
24:18
Speaker 1: They got Nolan McClain on the Mountain Man. He's their rookie.
24:22
Speaker 1: He's made one start ever and it was a pretty
24:24
Speaker 1: good one. And if you remember, I went under first
24:27
Speaker 1: five innings in that game, which was Mets Mariners, and
24:29
Speaker 1: we got a good pitching performance out of both McClain
24:32
Speaker 1: and Wu in that game. McClain obviously only has one start.
24:36
Speaker 1: It was a five and a third inning shutout at
24:38
Speaker 1: home against Seattle, so it was good only give up
24:40
Speaker 1: two hits. The only bad thing was he walked four guys.
24:44
Speaker 1: He had eight strikeouts, so he had a nice strikeout
24:46
Speaker 1: rate in the game. McClean, he's definitely a talented young
24:49
Speaker 1: pitcher man, so I mean maybe the walks were due
24:51
Speaker 1: to some like major league debut jitters too, because his
24:54
Speaker 1: numbers have been good in Triple A. I think he's
24:57
Speaker 1: pretty much the real deal. I think he's good enough
24:59
Speaker 1: to be in a star darting rotation at the major
25:01
Speaker 1: league level. He just proved he could strike out major
25:04
Speaker 1: league bats man. Atlanta is probably a worse offense than Seattle, too,
25:08
Speaker 1: so he's stepping down in Class A bit to face
25:10
Speaker 1: Atlanta here. Joey Wentz pitching for Atlanta, and you know,
25:14
Speaker 1: I kind of I don't think he's as good as
25:16
Speaker 1: his numbers have been in his recent starts. Man, He's
25:19
Speaker 1: been around for a bit, He's been a reliever for
25:21
Speaker 1: a lot of his pitching career. Four point seven to
25:24
Speaker 1: two ERA, one point three eight whip this year. Obviously,
25:27
Speaker 1: those numbers are not great. He's been really bad at
25:29
Speaker 1: home six point four to six ERA at home, so
25:32
Speaker 1: the splits are not in his favor. Last two starts
25:35
Speaker 1: were good. He gave him one and run a piece
25:36
Speaker 1: in each of them. Seven to four strike a walk
25:39
Speaker 1: ratio wasn't exactly good, though, and those starts are against
25:42
Speaker 1: Miami Cleveland, not great offenses. The Mets are obviously in
25:45
Speaker 1: much better offense, and the last time he faced a
25:48
Speaker 1: good offense, Milwaukee tagged him for five runs to start
25:51
Speaker 1: before that, so he might struggle in this game against
25:54
Speaker 1: the Mets. All of the Mets haven't been hitting that
25:57
Speaker 1: well recently. But wins does have good numbers against the
26:00
Speaker 1: Mets in twenty eight at bats two fourteen, average allowed,
26:03
Speaker 1: five to nine and high and ops, so they've seen him,
26:05
Speaker 1: but he's done pretty well against them in the past.
26:08
Speaker 1: So this game we could get a decent starting pitching
26:10
Speaker 1: matchup here. Man, this could be a lower scoring type
26:13
Speaker 1: of game here. I do worry about the Mets being
26:15
Speaker 1: in a bit of a rest disadvantage here. The money
26:18
Speaker 1: is coming in on Atlanta and they're actually favored, which
26:21
Speaker 1: a lot of times, man, I've been pointing out how
26:23
Speaker 1: often the professional money comes in on Atlanta just because
26:25
Speaker 1: it's they're better than their record looks, which I still
26:28
Speaker 1: agree with that, but I think you still have to
26:29
Speaker 1: pick your spots to do it. But they have been
26:31
Speaker 1: playing a lot better recently since kind of that monkey
26:34
Speaker 1: is off their back and now they can just kind
26:36
Speaker 1: of play with you know, no pressure basically for the
26:39
Speaker 1: rest of the season because nothing really matters. And I
26:41
Speaker 1: think a game like this is gonna be one that
26:43
Speaker 1: Atlanta will show up for because it's one of the
26:45
Speaker 1: better teams in their division. They'll they'll want to show
26:47
Speaker 1: up for it, and Atlanta up for minus one of
26:50
Speaker 1: three to minus one thirteen on the money line, fifty
26:52
Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on them, seventy four percent
26:54
Speaker 1: of the tickets coming in on the Mets, and the
26:56
Speaker 1: Mets are public. Both teams obviously have a reason to
26:59
Speaker 1: play in this game. Atlanta, I mean, I could see
27:03
Speaker 1: the argument for that is obviously the rest advantage there,
27:06
Speaker 1: So if you play Atlanta, you'll be going full game
27:08
Speaker 1: on Atlanta there. Because I'm not sure that they have
27:10
Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge in this game, I probably prefer
27:13
Speaker 1: McClain as the starting pitcher. Money seems to be coming
27:17
Speaker 1: in on the over after it actually dropped a little
27:19
Speaker 1: bit to eight and a half. Juice of the over,
27:20
Speaker 1: you have sixty three percent of tickets on the under.
27:23
Speaker 1: I don't know what public better is going to go
27:24
Speaker 1: to a Mets Braves game and go with an under
27:27
Speaker 1: though doesn't really make sense to me, but it's sixty
27:29
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over. I would probably lean
27:33
Speaker 1: to an under in this game myself, because I think
27:35
Speaker 1: both starting pitchers they do look like they could match
27:38
Speaker 1: up decently here, and the bullpen rest scenario isn't terrible
27:41
Speaker 1: really either. Neither bullpen is that bad, so I could
27:44
Speaker 1: definitely see the argument for the under, and more so
27:46
Speaker 1: than the over in that one. Saint Louis at Tampa.
27:49
Speaker 1: Saint Louis got the first game of this series. Tampa's
27:52
Speaker 1: lost four games in a row. Now, these teams are
27:54
Speaker 1: both pretty much out of it, so they're just kind
27:56
Speaker 1: of playing out the stretch here. Bullpen usage, I believe
28:00
Speaker 1: Tampa had a lot yesterday. Yeah, they use five relievers yesterday.
28:03
Speaker 1: Saint Louis only used three, So Saint Louis they might
28:07
Speaker 1: have a slight bullpen edge anyway, just if you look
28:09
Speaker 1: at the annual, like the stats for the entire season,
28:13
Speaker 1: basically on Saint Louis, but with the bullpen rest edge,
28:16
Speaker 1: I think you got to give the bullpen edge to
28:18
Speaker 1: Saint Louis in this game. Tampa probably has a better offense,
28:21
Speaker 1: especially the way Saint Louis has been performing most of
28:24
Speaker 1: the time recently, their offense hasn't been that great. Starting pitching.
28:28
Speaker 1: I probably would give Tampa Bay the edge and the
28:30
Speaker 1: starting pitching two, but we got to dig into the
28:32
Speaker 1: matchup numbers. I mean, on the surface, it looks that way.
28:35
Speaker 1: Miles michelis pitching for the Cardinals, He's not great. He's,
28:39
Speaker 1: you know, just a journeyman pitcher that's kind of a
28:42
Speaker 1: control pitcher, doesn't blow guys away four point nine to
28:45
Speaker 1: ninety RA, one point three whip on the season. Not great.
28:48
Speaker 1: He's particularly bad on the road six point four to
28:51
Speaker 1: seventy R and it doesn't get really any easier in
28:54
Speaker 1: Steinbrenner Field, which we know Micholus is kind of a
28:58
Speaker 1: susceptible to the home run and not a good sign
29:01
Speaker 1: coming into Steinbrenner Field here the temporary stadium for Tampa Bay,
29:05
Speaker 1: which is a very home run conducive park. Mikolas just
29:10
Speaker 1: had an okay starting against the Yankees held him to
29:12
Speaker 1: three earned runs, but he walked five guys in that game,
29:15
Speaker 1: so that gives me a little bit of a concern
29:16
Speaker 1: as well. His recent starts against good offenses are bad
29:20
Speaker 1: against the Dodgers and the Yankees, although Tampa Bay is
29:23
Speaker 1: obviously not as good of an offense. His numbers are
29:26
Speaker 1: okay against Tampa and thirty eight at bats fourteen to
29:28
Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio is good two sixty three
29:31
Speaker 1: average six to ninety five ops. So Mikolas doesn't really
29:35
Speaker 1: match up terribly against Tampa at the very least Adrian
29:38
Speaker 1: Houser pitching for Tampa. They got him right before the
29:40
Speaker 1: trade deadline. Tampa basically thought they were gonna still be competing,
29:44
Speaker 1: so they went out and they got Houser from the
29:46
Speaker 1: White Sox. He was pitching well for the White Sox
29:49
Speaker 1: two point six to seventy RA this year, though one
29:51
Speaker 1: point two to nine whip is definitely indicative that his
29:54
Speaker 1: ERA should be higher than it is. He puts too
29:56
Speaker 1: many guys on base. He is actually better at home
29:59
Speaker 1: in the one point three eight, but I would not
30:01
Speaker 1: really look too much into that because that was all
30:03
Speaker 1: with the White Sox. He has not pitched in this
30:06
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay stadium yet, and as I said, this is
30:08
Speaker 1: a very hitter friendly stadium here, so he might not
30:11
Speaker 1: adapt as well to this stadium. All of his starts
30:15
Speaker 1: so far, I've been on the road with Tampa and
30:17
Speaker 1: he hasn't been that great. Five point one seven ERA,
30:20
Speaker 1: thirteen to four strike a walk ratio not too good,
30:23
Speaker 1: gave up five and four on runs, and the starts
30:25
Speaker 1: against Anaheim and Seattle. Did have a shutout last time
30:28
Speaker 1: out at San Francisco, but that's a very weak offense,
30:32
Speaker 1: so Howser basically has been pretty good against weak offenses
30:35
Speaker 1: this year. That's kind of been his thing. San Francisco
30:39
Speaker 1: also a pitcher friendly park, whereas this is not going
30:41
Speaker 1: to be. Howser does have good numbers against the Cardinals
30:44
Speaker 1: in the past sixty three at bats, seventeen to six,
30:47
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, two point six average, eleven six
30:50
Speaker 1: h nine ops. So the Cardinals aren't familiar with him,
30:53
Speaker 1: but they haven't hit him, particularly because I think he
30:55
Speaker 1: was on Milwaukee, right, Yeah, so the Cardinals did see
30:58
Speaker 1: him for a while up until basically last year. He's
31:01
Speaker 1: he was on the walking for most of his career.
31:04
Speaker 1: But the Cardinals, again, even though they're familiar with and
31:06
Speaker 1: they didn't do particularly well. So interestingly, you could see
31:10
Speaker 1: both starting pitchers actually maybe doing okay in this game.
31:13
Speaker 1: And then I think maybe a first five inning under
31:17
Speaker 1: might make sense here because I just don't know if
31:18
Speaker 1: we could totally trust the bullpens, especially Tampa's with their
31:21
Speaker 1: usage here. Money is coming in on the under, although
31:24
Speaker 1: it flipped up to nine juice to the over, it's
31:26
Speaker 1: a high total of nine because of the stadium, eighty
31:29
Speaker 1: two percent of the tickets, ninety five percent of the
31:31
Speaker 1: cash coming in on the under though I could see
31:34
Speaker 1: the first five under, like I said, but I would
31:35
Speaker 1: worry a little bit about that, just because of the
31:37
Speaker 1: stadium and because I'm not sure that either of these
31:40
Speaker 1: pictures is totally trustworthy. Line is up for minus one
31:44
Speaker 1: twenty seven of minus one thirty three on Tampa, so
31:48
Speaker 1: money coming into Tampa Bay a little bit there too.
31:51
Speaker 1: Minnesota at the White Sox. Here, White Sox, I believe
31:55
Speaker 1: we're off yesterday, but they are turning over from a
31:57
Speaker 1: road trip. But they went to Kansas City and Atlanta,
32:00
Speaker 1: and you know, I always say when a team returns
32:01
Speaker 1: home from a road trip, sometimes they're distracted, they don't
32:04
Speaker 1: do as well. So I don't think it's a particularly
32:06
Speaker 1: good spot for the White Sox here. Minnesota, even though
32:10
Speaker 1: they're not very good. I would say Minnesota, even though
32:12
Speaker 1: they're bullpen stinks, even though Minnesota's offense stinks. Those are
32:16
Speaker 1: both probably better than the White Sox. Minnesota, however, did
32:20
Speaker 1: play yesterday, so they have no rest. So the White
32:23
Speaker 1: Sox do have a rest edge, but gets kind of
32:26
Speaker 1: negated by the fact that they're traveling and returning home
32:28
Speaker 1: from a road trip. Minnesota is having to travel as
32:30
Speaker 1: well though from home out to the White Sox, but
32:33
Speaker 1: after they lost a really ugly series they got swept
32:37
Speaker 1: by the A's, Minnesota might be more ready to go
32:40
Speaker 1: in this game. They used three relief pitchers yesterday, so
32:42
Speaker 1: not horrible bullpen usage for them yesterday. So Minnesota, I mean,
32:49
Speaker 1: all that being said, I think I'm probably leaning towards
32:51
Speaker 1: Minnesota here. I think they have a starting pitching edge
32:54
Speaker 1: in this game as well. With Zebbie Matthews on the
32:56
Speaker 1: mound here, I know his numbers don't look good. He's
32:58
Speaker 1: a young guy who's still trying to find his way
33:00
Speaker 1: five point oh six ERA one point four to four whip.
33:03
Speaker 1: He is worse on the road to five point four
33:06
Speaker 1: six ERA, which is a little bit concerning. This month,
33:09
Speaker 1: he's been okay though, with a three point six eighty
33:11
Speaker 1: RA twenty one to six strike a walk ratio. Wasn't
33:14
Speaker 1: as good in his last start against Detroit four walks
33:18
Speaker 1: in four innings, but Detroit had just seen him two
33:20
Speaker 1: starts prior, so Detroit was recently familiar with him, so
33:23
Speaker 1: they had a little bit of an extra matchup edge there,
33:26
Speaker 1: and he pitched twice against Detroy, once against the Yankees,
33:29
Speaker 1: this month, so obviously he has not had it easy.
33:31
Speaker 1: The White Sox are a huge step down offensively from
33:35
Speaker 1: those two teams, so he should probably do better against
33:38
Speaker 1: the White Sox, and the White Sox have also never
33:40
Speaker 1: seen him, so the White Sox might struggle to face
33:43
Speaker 1: a pitcher that they've never actually seen before. White Sox
33:46
Speaker 1: will be going with Aaron Savale here four point eight
33:49
Speaker 1: eight ERA, one point three to five WHIP. His numbers
33:52
Speaker 1: not terrific on the season, really bad at home six
33:55
Speaker 1: point twenty five RA, so the splits not in his
33:58
Speaker 1: favor here this month, seventeen to five strike a walk
34:02
Speaker 1: ratio is not bad. He has a six point eight
34:04
Speaker 1: to ninety ARRA, but that's almost entirely because he got
34:07
Speaker 1: totally lit up by Cleveland three starts in a row.
34:11
Speaker 1: Prior to that, he hadn't allowed any runs and then
34:13
Speaker 1: Cleveland actually bombed them for whatever reason. I mean, Cleveland's
34:17
Speaker 1: even a good offense. And then he bounced back with
34:19
Speaker 1: a decent start against Kansas City last time out, of
34:22
Speaker 1: though they're not a very good offense at all. Obviously.
34:25
Speaker 1: Now they're up against the Minnesota Twins here. He does
34:30
Speaker 1: have okay numbers against the Twins and forty four at
34:32
Speaker 1: bats to twenty seven batting average, but an eight thirty
34:35
Speaker 1: seven OPS is high because he's allowed four home runs
34:37
Speaker 1: to them, but it's basically all Buckston. Three home runs
34:40
Speaker 1: for Buckston, but Bucks only his four hits in eighteen
34:43
Speaker 1: at bats against him with seven k's, so he hasn't
34:46
Speaker 1: even really particularly done that well against Savale. So I'll
34:50
Speaker 1: leave this game alone, especially just because I don't love
34:53
Speaker 1: Minnesota having played yesterday, and the money seems to be
34:55
Speaker 1: coming in on the White Sox, but I think I'm
34:57
Speaker 1: gonna lean to Minnesota on the money line. They're up
35:00
Speaker 1: for minus one twenty five to minus one thirty fifty
35:02
Speaker 1: six percent of tickets on them, fifty six percent of
35:04
Speaker 1: the cash coming in on the White Sox, however, But again,
35:07
Speaker 1: even though the White Socks two have that rest edge there,
35:10
Speaker 1: I think the starting pitching is a favorite of Minnesota.
35:12
Speaker 1: I think they're the better all around team, and the
35:15
Speaker 1: White Sox are turning over from road trips, so I
35:18
Speaker 1: could also see the argument for just going first five
35:21
Speaker 1: with Minnesota if you don't want to deal with They're
35:23
Speaker 1: a bullpen that they used a little bit yesterday, but
35:25
Speaker 1: they didn't use a whole lot of it Cleveland at Texas.
35:29
Speaker 1: Texas played yesterday at Kansas City and they were turning
35:31
Speaker 1: over from a road trip and Cleveland was off. So
35:33
Speaker 1: Cleveland definitely has an advantage here situationally. But then I
35:37
Speaker 1: looked at the starting pitching matchup, but I was like, ah,
35:39
Speaker 1: damn it, because it looked like a spot where you
35:42
Speaker 1: might want to fade Texas here because they played yesterday,
35:45
Speaker 1: they're returning home. They went to Toronto and Kansas City.
35:48
Speaker 1: Texas still has something to play for it though, I mean,
35:50
Speaker 1: I think they're still trying to vie for getting into
35:52
Speaker 1: the playoffs here. Man, they're not out of it yet.
35:55
Speaker 1: Neither is Cleveland. Really though Cleveland, like I said, they
35:57
Speaker 1: sold at the trade deadline, they had all this weird
36:00
Speaker 1: ambling issues, lost a couple of their relief pitchers to
36:02
Speaker 1: suspension because of that, including their closer class. So I mean, Cleveland,
36:07
Speaker 1: it was just kind of weird that they started winning
36:09
Speaker 1: all those games. But I think they've kind of fallen
36:12
Speaker 1: back into not playing particularly well again, as they've lost
36:16
Speaker 1: five of their last six games or whatever that is,
36:19
Speaker 1: so they're not playing good baseball again here. Texas probably
36:23
Speaker 1: has the motivational edge here, but again Texas is returning
36:26
Speaker 1: over from a road trip and has a rest disadvantage er,
36:28
Speaker 1: so it is a tough spot for them, these four
36:31
Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Yesterday, Texas's bullpend is pretty good, like normally,
36:35
Speaker 1: the better of these two bullpens, but with the rest
36:39
Speaker 1: not really helping them out there, that kind of negates
36:41
Speaker 1: their edge a little bit there. Both teams have really
36:44
Speaker 1: bad offenses. They're both really close as far as the offense,
36:46
Speaker 1: they're both bad. Slay Chacone pitching for Cleveland. I mean,
36:52
Speaker 1: you look at the starting pitching, you gotta think that
36:54
Speaker 1: Texas does have a starting pitching edge here. Slay Chacone
36:58
Speaker 1: not great numbers this year, Like do think he's a
37:00
Speaker 1: pretty talented young pitcher still though four point five ERA
37:03
Speaker 1: this year, one point three to two whip not great.
37:05
Speaker 1: He is better on the road though, three point four
37:08
Speaker 1: to eighty RA this year, but recent form has been
37:10
Speaker 1: pretty bad. Hasn't gone more than four and two thirds
37:13
Speaker 1: in his last two starts, and it was against the
37:15
Speaker 1: White Sox in Atlanta, so not exactly great offenses, and
37:19
Speaker 1: they tagged him for eleven runs and seven and two
37:21
Speaker 1: thirds innings. He's got an eight point five six ERA
37:24
Speaker 1: this month, thirteen to four strike a walk rashow not bad,
37:27
Speaker 1: but he's been really bad in his last two starts,
37:29
Speaker 1: so it gets a little bit dicey if you want
37:32
Speaker 1: to try to fade Texas here. Man, he doesn't have
37:35
Speaker 1: good numbers against Texas either. It's a small seventeen at
37:37
Speaker 1: bat sample size with three point fifty three batting average
37:40
Speaker 1: allowed nine to eighteen ops. So his number is not
37:43
Speaker 1: good against Texas. So that's where the handicap kind of
37:47
Speaker 1: starts falling apart here where the situation looks like it
37:49
Speaker 1: does line up nicely for Cleveland, but I just don't
37:52
Speaker 1: see how we could really do it here at this
37:54
Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup on Nathany Valdi pitching for the Rangers.
37:58
Speaker 1: He's having a really good season one point seven to
38:00
Speaker 1: sixty RA, point eight to seven WHIP. I mean, I
38:03
Speaker 1: don't think that's totally sustainable because those numbers are too good,
38:07
Speaker 1: but he has been really good. He's been actually worse
38:10
Speaker 1: at home, but only a two point two sixty the RA,
38:12
Speaker 1: which is still not bad at all this month, three
38:15
Speaker 1: point one five ERA, fifteen to one strike up walk ratio,
38:18
Speaker 1: including an eight INNY one hit shutout against the Yankees
38:22
Speaker 1: face Arizona, Toronto. Some offenses that can hit Arizona actually
38:25
Speaker 1: did well against them, but he had two good starts. Otherwise,
38:31
Speaker 1: they've won a bunch of his games in a row now.
38:33
Speaker 1: They've won eight straight starts behind him now, so they're
38:36
Speaker 1: on a roll with the evolving on the mound here
38:38
Speaker 1: man and him up against Cleveland. I mean, Cleveland is
38:41
Speaker 1: a weak offense to and he's done pretty well against
38:43
Speaker 1: them in the past. Sixty five at bats eleven to two,
38:46
Speaker 1: strike up, walk race here two forty six average allowed
38:49
Speaker 1: six sixty nine. Oh ps, So I think this matchup man,
38:55
Speaker 1: I think you just gotta you gotta stay away, man,
38:58
Speaker 1: I think matchup wise. Oh yeah, Checony, Wait what did
39:02
Speaker 1: I just do? Did I look at his numbers against Texas? Yeah,
39:04
Speaker 1: they're not good at all. I think I did look
39:06
Speaker 1: at them, right, Yeah, he's really bading in Texas three
39:08
Speaker 1: fifty three batting average, a looted nine eighteen obs lot.
39:10
Speaker 1: I think I already did look at that. Yeah. So
39:12
Speaker 1: the maage up numbers clearly are in favor of Texas here,
39:15
Speaker 1: but the situation will starting pitching at least, But the
39:18
Speaker 1: situation is in favor of Cleveland Texas down for minds
39:22
Speaker 1: one sixty five to minus one forty five, sixty two
39:24
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, sixty six percent of the
39:26
Speaker 1: cash on Cleveland. Though the money is coming in on
39:29
Speaker 1: Cleveland Texas, their offense does really struggle at home. So
39:32
Speaker 1: that's one thing you do have to worry about with
39:36
Speaker 1: Texas there. The money's coming in on the under as well,
39:38
Speaker 1: seventy four percent of tickets on the over, seventy eight
39:40
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. I think the
39:42
Speaker 1: biggest thing for the under here is that you're looking
39:44
Speaker 1: at two really bad offenses. I think that's kind of
39:47
Speaker 1: the thing. As far as the under, I would still
39:48
Speaker 1: worry about Checony a little bit, though. If you're gonna
39:51
Speaker 1: go with Cleveland money line, you got to make it
39:53
Speaker 1: full game because I think that's where they have more
39:55
Speaker 1: of the edge with the bullpen rest starting pitching. Edge
39:59
Speaker 1: to me looks like it's definitely in favor of Texas.
40:02
Speaker 1: That's what I worry about there. And as far as
40:04
Speaker 1: the under, yeah, I mean I suppose I would probably
40:08
Speaker 1: go full game with that under because you still look
40:10
Speaker 1: you're still looking at okay bullpens or a good bullpen.
40:14
Speaker 1: Uh as far as Texas is concerned. San Francisco at
40:17
Speaker 1: the Brewers. I looked at this game and my immediate
40:20
Speaker 1: thought was, the Brewers are in a letdown spot. Brewers,
40:22
Speaker 1: by the way, had this weird mots ofrellistick bet on
40:26
Speaker 1: not too long ago with whatever game Colin Ray was pitching,
40:28
Speaker 1: because that's him there. I'm pretty sure I don't know
40:32
Speaker 1: the brewer of the Cubs players. I mean, I guess
40:35
Speaker 1: bet that they could turn a double play with I
40:38
Speaker 1: forget who the batter was for the Brewers. Uh, but
40:40
Speaker 1: it's a guy that does ground to shortstop a lot.
40:43
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened. Uh. So, whatever the bet was,
40:47
Speaker 1: one of the Cubs players had to buy monts Ofrelli sticks, uh.
40:50
Speaker 1: For I guess they were in eye they went to
40:52
Speaker 1: Iowa to do it. I don't even know, man, I
40:54
Speaker 1: don't know what's going on here because they're they're playing
40:57
Speaker 1: in Chicago, right So I don't know what the deal was.
41:01
Speaker 1: But that might have been after the series finished, because
41:03
Speaker 1: they might have I think they did. They play in
41:04
Speaker 1: the afternoon yesterday. I don't even know, man, but whatever
41:06
Speaker 1: the case was, who cares. We're talking about the Brewers here,
41:09
Speaker 1: But yeah, there was a weird Mazzarella stick bet with
41:11
Speaker 1: the Cubs players. You can go look it up. I
41:14
Speaker 1: think they bought Motzarella sticks for like everybody at that
41:16
Speaker 1: particular restaurant. Anyway, Milwaukee, I think Iowa is where the
41:21
Speaker 1: Cubs Triple A team is, by the way, if I'm
41:23
Speaker 1: not mistaken. Milwaukee won the first game in the last
41:27
Speaker 1: game of that five game series, and the Cubs took
41:29
Speaker 1: the three middle games. So Milwaukee lost one game on
41:33
Speaker 1: the Cubs, but they still basically maintained their edge there.
41:35
Speaker 1: So that was a big series. Milwaukee is coming up
41:37
Speaker 1: to win over the Cubs and the returning home from
41:40
Speaker 1: a road trip or they went to Cincinnati and Chicago.
41:42
Speaker 1: I know going from Chicago. Two are going for Chicago
41:47
Speaker 1: to Milwaukee is not a big road trip obviously, It's
41:50
Speaker 1: basically a trip up the highway, but still it is
41:54
Speaker 1: a return home spot of a huge series against the Cubs.
41:57
Speaker 1: Milwaukee might overlook San Francisco a little bit right now
41:59
Speaker 1: because Milwaukee held serve they have a big lead still
42:03
Speaker 1: in the division. San Francisco is pretty much out of it.
42:05
Speaker 1: So Milwaukee, I think they could be in a bit
42:07
Speaker 1: of a letdown spot here. San Francisco also, I believe,
42:11
Speaker 1: had yesterday off, but they're traveling in from the Pacific coast,
42:14
Speaker 1: so oh, no, excuse me, they played yesterday against San Diego.
42:17
Speaker 1: What am I saying? My mistake? They finished just four
42:19
Speaker 1: game series against San Diego, so they have no rest either.
42:23
Speaker 1: They're coming in from San Diego, but they might be
42:27
Speaker 1: in a little bit of a better spot, maybe, like
42:29
Speaker 1: focus wise, because they just lost that series to San Diego,
42:32
Speaker 1: so it might be good for them to just get
42:34
Speaker 1: out of their refocus on baseball. So I do think
42:38
Speaker 1: the spot still lines up better for San Francisco here situationally,
42:42
Speaker 1: bullpen wise, Milwaukee us four relief pitchers yesterday five Actually
42:46
Speaker 1: excuse me, but only one of them for five pitches.
42:48
Speaker 1: San Francisco is in the better bullpen rest spot as
42:50
Speaker 1: they only use three yesterday. San Francisco does still have
42:54
Speaker 1: the better bullpend even though Milwaukee obviously does the better offense.
42:57
Speaker 1: Milwaukee not quite as good offensively at home, so I'm
43:01
Speaker 1: starting to kind of lean towards San Francisco in this game,
43:03
Speaker 1: and you're gonna get a big underdog price with them
43:05
Speaker 1: if you do like that. Because we are looking at
43:07
Speaker 1: the better bullpen, Milwaukee's offense at least has less of
43:10
Speaker 1: an advantage at home. It's a bit of a worse
43:13
Speaker 1: spot for Milwaukee and what I think is a bit
43:14
Speaker 1: of a letdown. And Milwaukee does have one of their
43:18
Speaker 1: lesser starting pitchers on the mound here for Sar Francisco,
43:21
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a guy who we don't really know
43:23
Speaker 1: what he is yet. With Carson Wizzen Hunting, it was
43:25
Speaker 1: a rookie and his numbers aren't good right now. I know,
43:28
Speaker 1: five point h two ERA one point four whip that's
43:31
Speaker 1: not exactly good. I get that he was better on
43:34
Speaker 1: the road. The one point six to ninety are in
43:36
Speaker 1: the road, and I know it's a very small sample
43:37
Speaker 1: though he's only made three starts, but the one on
43:40
Speaker 1: the road was against the strongest offense that he faced
43:43
Speaker 1: in the Mets, so it's a decent sign he might
43:46
Speaker 1: do better on the road. But he is walking too
43:47
Speaker 1: many guys. He's got twelve strikeouts but seven walks and
43:51
Speaker 1: five home runs allowed, so that is a concern. They
43:53
Speaker 1: send him back to the miners. Actually, he hasn't pitched
43:56
Speaker 1: since early this month, and now he's back up, getting
43:59
Speaker 1: his second to try here at the major league level,
44:03
Speaker 1: and I believe Milwaukee will have never seen him before. Yeah,
44:05
Speaker 1: so wizen Hunt does at least have a little bit
44:07
Speaker 1: of unfamiliarity edge there, although it hasn't worked out for
44:10
Speaker 1: him too much so far. A wizen Hunt, by the
44:12
Speaker 1: way I've talked about him, he doesn't really throw that
44:14
Speaker 1: hard with his fastball, but he has a really, really
44:17
Speaker 1: good change up, so he's about fooling hitters like basically
44:20
Speaker 1: a boy changing speeds and off speed stuff. So we'll
44:23
Speaker 1: see what he can do here. He's up against Jose Kintana,
44:26
Speaker 1: who's the veteran who I still don't think he's as
44:28
Speaker 1: good as what he's been doing this year, but he's
44:30
Speaker 1: definitely having a good season. Three point three two ERA,
44:33
Speaker 1: one point two a whip. This Milwaukee rotation is pretty good, man.
44:36
Speaker 1: Even the guys that you expect to do bad haven't
44:39
Speaker 1: done bad. Although Kintana has been worse at home four
44:41
Speaker 1: point four to three ERA at home this month, I
44:44
Speaker 1: know he's still been really good. Two point seventy RA,
44:46
Speaker 1: eighteen to four strikeout walk rasu is really good. You
44:49
Speaker 1: usually don't see him striking out a lot of guys.
44:52
Speaker 1: He's not really a strikeout guy. He's a location pitcher
44:55
Speaker 1: who's been around forever. That's the way that he gets
44:58
Speaker 1: his job done against San Francisco. His numbers are okay
45:02
Speaker 1: against San Francisco in fifty six at bats, two to
45:05
Speaker 1: fifty batting average, seven to eleven ops allowed, so he
45:08
Speaker 1: hasn't done too poorly against them. I mean, I could
45:11
Speaker 1: see the argument, though this is a letdown spot for
45:13
Speaker 1: Milwaukee and that you could potentially get something out of
45:16
Speaker 1: wizen Hunt. Here. Milwaukee is the public side ninety five
45:19
Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only seventy two percent of the cash
45:21
Speaker 1: line dropped for minus one sixty three to minus one
45:23
Speaker 1: to fifty five. So the money is coming in on
45:26
Speaker 1: San Francisco. We've seen the money line or excuse the
45:30
Speaker 1: total is flipped to the under at eight and a
45:32
Speaker 1: half juice to the under, but now seventy one percent
45:34
Speaker 1: of tickets sixty six percent of the cash on the under.
45:37
Speaker 1: I do see some arguments for an under though, I mean,
45:40
Speaker 1: maybe you don't want Milwaukee's bullpen and play, but both
45:42
Speaker 1: bullpens are not that bad. The starting pitching matchup could
45:46
Speaker 1: result in some uh hitting disadvantages here, again with wizen
45:50
Speaker 1: Hunt being unfamiliar and kin Toada does have decent matchup numbers.
45:54
Speaker 1: I think if you're gonna play this game San Francisco,
45:56
Speaker 1: maybe you grab them at the big underdog price in
45:58
Speaker 1: the full game, either on the run line or the
46:00
Speaker 1: money line, leave their bullpen in the equation if you
46:03
Speaker 1: want to do that, and then I could see potentially
46:06
Speaker 1: the under might make sense as well in that game,
46:08
Speaker 1: but probably my preference would be San Francisco on the
46:12
Speaker 1: full game, like money line or run line in some way.
46:15
Speaker 1: Cubs at Anaheim, I don't know how we can really
46:17
Speaker 1: handicap this game because we've both starters I think are
46:22
Speaker 1: undecided in this game, at least according to according to
46:27
Speaker 1: pregame there, although we do have one starter or listed
46:29
Speaker 1: on ESPN right now, But I don't know. Because Tyler
46:33
Speaker 1: Anderson for Anaheim, I don't know if he's actually gonna pitch,
46:35
Speaker 1: because he's he has had starts pushed back recently due
46:38
Speaker 1: to some injuries. But yeah, Cubs coming off that big
46:42
Speaker 1: series again against Milwaukee. They're going out on the road.
46:45
Speaker 1: They did lose yesterday They're having to travel to the
46:47
Speaker 1: Pacific Coast with no time off, so it doesn't look
46:49
Speaker 1: like a great spot for the Cubs, even though you
46:52
Speaker 1: usually are focused when you start a road trip, but
46:54
Speaker 1: you're coming off a series against the Brewers man your
46:57
Speaker 1: biggest rival right now in your division, So how could
47:00
Speaker 1: you possibly be focused on this interleague team that's not
47:03
Speaker 1: going anywhere in Anaheim. Cubs only used two relief pictures
47:06
Speaker 1: though yesterday, but still, I don't really see this being
47:08
Speaker 1: a very focused spot for the Cubs. And they don't
47:10
Speaker 1: even know who their starting pitcher is gonna be. Seems
47:12
Speaker 1: like they might not really care too much about this
47:14
Speaker 1: game here. Anaheim at a bit of an advantage just
47:18
Speaker 1: because they're staying at home, and I think they didn't
47:21
Speaker 1: play yesterday either, right, So there's a pretty big advantage
47:23
Speaker 1: for Anaheim here. So I wish I knew who the
47:25
Speaker 1: starting pitchers were because this could be a spot to
47:27
Speaker 1: play Anaheim. I mean, Cubs rest disadvantage again having to
47:32
Speaker 1: travel to the Pacific coast, that might throw off their
47:34
Speaker 1: biological clock playing a late game. Anaheim didn't even play
47:38
Speaker 1: and they're not traveling. It's a pretty big advantage to Anaheim,
47:41
Speaker 1: but I think if Tyler Anderson is actually going to
47:44
Speaker 1: be their picture, I think there's no way you can
47:46
Speaker 1: play Anaheim. I'm sorry, but I just don't think you
47:49
Speaker 1: can do it. He's just not good four point seven
47:52
Speaker 1: to seven ERA, one point four to whip. He is
47:54
Speaker 1: better at home three point eight two ERA at home
47:57
Speaker 1: this month hasn't been good. He's a lot four and
47:59
Speaker 1: runs in all three starts, only going four innings in
48:02
Speaker 1: each of the last two. His team has lost five
48:04
Speaker 1: starts in a row of his this month seven point
48:07
Speaker 1: seven to one ERA, eleven to eight strike out walk
48:09
Speaker 1: ratio not good, and his numbers against the Cubs, who
48:13
Speaker 1: obviously have the better offense here, and the Cubs still
48:16
Speaker 1: have the better bullpen out of these two teams as well,
48:18
Speaker 1: so Cubs do have some advantages here. Cubs hit Anderson
48:22
Speaker 1: pretty well in a big one hundred and twenty seven
48:24
Speaker 1: at bat sample size eighteen to eleven, strike out walk ratio,
48:28
Speaker 1: three fifty four average allot in one fifty one oh ps,
48:31
Speaker 1: So Anderson doesn't do well against the Chicago Cubs. So
48:35
Speaker 1: I think if he is actually pitching, Sorry, I have
48:37
Speaker 1: Gusto up there right now, but I am gonna be
48:39
Speaker 1: talking about him in the Marlins game because I think
48:41
Speaker 1: he is going to be starting for them. But yeah, Anderson,
48:44
Speaker 1: if he's starting, I just don't see how you can
48:46
Speaker 1: possibly put your money on him. Even though the spot
48:49
Speaker 1: looks like it's a really good spot for Anaheim, I'm
48:51
Speaker 1: sure some professional money will come in on Anaheim because
48:54
Speaker 1: you know they're gonna be a home underdog here. But
48:57
Speaker 1: Anaheim maybe the other thing about Anaheim is still that
48:59
Speaker 1: also they're not even as good as their record looks,
49:01
Speaker 1: so really difficult to do that. Cincinnati is at Arizona.
49:05
Speaker 1: Arizona they headed yesterday off. They beat Cleveland in the
49:10
Speaker 1: last series, so they're staying at home with a little
49:13
Speaker 1: bit of momentum here, though the momentum might stop a
49:15
Speaker 1: little bit because they didn't play yesterday Cincinnati, I believe.
49:18
Speaker 1: Also it was off yesterday, so two rested bullpens here.
49:22
Speaker 1: Cincinnati has the better bullpen, Arizona's bullpen's not good. Arizona
49:26
Speaker 1: has the better offense despite the trades that they made.
49:30
Speaker 1: Cincinnati just lost to Anaheim, so they're coming in from
49:33
Speaker 1: Anaheim to Arizona, so the travel spot not really that
49:36
Speaker 1: bad for Cincinnati. As they're in the middle of a
49:38
Speaker 1: road trouble. They did just lose a three game win streak,
49:42
Speaker 1: but maybe they'll come out with some fire here. The
49:45
Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup actually looks decent here. Zach Lttel is
49:49
Speaker 1: pitching for the Reds. Good season for him, three point
49:52
Speaker 1: five two ERA, one point one to one WHIP. He's
49:55
Speaker 1: been a little bit worse on the road, but not
49:57
Speaker 1: bad three point seven to six ERA. He came over
50:00
Speaker 1: from Tampa Bay and he's been good in two of
50:03
Speaker 1: his three starts with Cincinnati, including giving up one and
50:06
Speaker 1: run in seven innings at Chicago at the Cubs. That's
50:10
Speaker 1: a good start. His worst start was against Pittsburgh, so
50:13
Speaker 1: go figure a very very bad offense. He just seemed
50:16
Speaker 1: like he probably had no focus there. And then his
50:18
Speaker 1: two good starts from not only against the Cubs but
50:20
Speaker 1: also against Milwaukee, he only led one run to them.
50:23
Speaker 1: So Lttel seems to just pitch better against better teams
50:26
Speaker 1: for whatever reason. And his last start with Tampa he
50:28
Speaker 1: shut out the Yankees for five innings, although he walked
50:31
Speaker 1: for guys, but still he seems to bitch better against
50:34
Speaker 1: better offenses, which he is facing here. Fourteen to three
50:37
Speaker 1: strike out walk right here this month with Cincinnati in
50:40
Speaker 1: a three point zero sixty R. So he's in pretty
50:42
Speaker 1: good form right now for the most part. Up against Arizona,
50:47
Speaker 1: he's got good numbers against them, two and thirty five
50:49
Speaker 1: at bats, he only have seven hits, eight strikeouts, one walk,
50:54
Speaker 1: two hundred batting average five ninety four ohps allowed, So
50:57
Speaker 1: Latel has good matchup numbers here. He's up against Ryan
51:01
Speaker 1: Nelson for Arizona, who I'm gonna have to start maybe
51:04
Speaker 1: becoming I keep I always say this. I've been saying
51:06
Speaker 1: it all year. I guess, so now I have to
51:08
Speaker 1: become a Ryan Nelson believer to some extent. Here. He's
51:12
Speaker 1: better at home for whatever reason, even though it's a
51:14
Speaker 1: hitter friendly park. But overall he's got a three point
51:16
Speaker 1: five eighty RA one point zero seven whip but again,
51:19
Speaker 1: really good at home two point two ERA. I still
51:22
Speaker 1: can't figure it out, but the numbers are what they are.
51:25
Speaker 1: He's got a pretty good eighteen to two strike a
51:27
Speaker 1: walk ratio this month. However, he's not exactly in the
51:31
Speaker 1: greatest form right now, with a five point seven to
51:33
Speaker 1: one ERA this month against San Diego, Texas and then Colorado,
51:37
Speaker 1: the Colorado. That game is a course field. Maybe you
51:39
Speaker 1: give him a pass for that one, but not really
51:42
Speaker 1: much of an excuse for losing on the road to
51:45
Speaker 1: Texas offense that really can't do a whole lot at home.
51:49
Speaker 1: So I don't know what that was. Yeah, I mean,
51:52
Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about that, really,
51:54
Speaker 1: But his team has lost his last four appearances, so
51:57
Speaker 1: that's not very good either. Up against who are we
52:00
Speaker 1: facing here? Cincinnati, right the other Ohio teams, So they're
52:03
Speaker 1: facing two Ohio teams in a row, I believe, Yeah,
52:06
Speaker 1: Arizona's facing two Ohio teams in a row. Against Cincinnati.
52:10
Speaker 1: He's got good numbers. It's a small sixteen at bad
52:12
Speaker 1: sample size, but he's having to one to eighty eight
52:14
Speaker 1: batting average, although six hundred ops pretty much entirely because
52:18
Speaker 1: of four walks compared to three strikeouts. So Nelson's walk
52:21
Speaker 1: numbers haven't been good. But otherwise his numbers do look
52:24
Speaker 1: good here. So for me, I think what we're looking
52:27
Speaker 1: at here is a first five inning under in this game,
52:29
Speaker 1: because I wouldn't really want to deal with the bullpens.
52:32
Speaker 1: I don't love either bullpen, especially Arizona's even though we
52:35
Speaker 1: do have rest at least, so if you wanted to
52:36
Speaker 1: go full game under, I mean, okay, total's pretty high
52:40
Speaker 1: at nine because it's a hitter friendly park, but it's
52:42
Speaker 1: gotten some juice on the under here now sixty one
52:45
Speaker 1: percent of tickets and cash both on the over. I
52:47
Speaker 1: think under is worth a look in this game. And
52:50
Speaker 1: then we have eighty one percent of tickets ninety one
52:52
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Reds. The Reds are
52:54
Speaker 1: still trying to make the playoffs, man, so I think
52:56
Speaker 1: they have a slight motivational edge here. Maybe Arizona knows
52:59
Speaker 1: that they're out of that, but Arizona is kind of
53:02
Speaker 1: real They kind of realized that now, kind of like
53:04
Speaker 1: the Braves, and I think they're just realizing, well, let's
53:06
Speaker 1: just go out and let's just play baseball with no pressure.
53:10
Speaker 1: Arizona up for minus one twenty eight to minus one
53:12
Speaker 1: twenty nine here. I'm getting a lot of credit for
53:15
Speaker 1: having the better offense really here, but I don't really
53:17
Speaker 1: know that Arizona should be even that much of a favorite,
53:20
Speaker 1: even at home, though against a team that does have
53:21
Speaker 1: a little bit more motivation that isn't that much worse
53:24
Speaker 1: than they are So those are my feelings on that game,
53:27
Speaker 1: but I think probably the preferred approach there's under in
53:30
Speaker 1: the first five there and then avoid Arizona's bullpen. Dodgers
53:34
Speaker 1: at San Diego. This is kind of a quick rematch
53:37
Speaker 1: because San Diego just played the Dodgers in LA and
53:39
Speaker 1: they got swept. So this is a bit of a
53:41
Speaker 1: quick revenge spot for San Diego here. They are staying
53:44
Speaker 1: at home. They did play yesterday and they finished off
53:47
Speaker 1: beating San Francisco three out of the last four, with
53:51
Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum here, a little bit of
53:53
Speaker 1: revenge on their mind, and San Diego is definitely better
53:55
Speaker 1: at home than on the road, and they are only
53:56
Speaker 1: one game behind the Dodgers, So San Diego is going
53:59
Speaker 1: to show although you know the Dodgers are gonna show
54:01
Speaker 1: up here too, But I think this sets up a
54:03
Speaker 1: little bit better for San Diego this time out for
54:05
Speaker 1: all those reasons. Dodgers coming enough, splitting a series at
54:10
Speaker 1: the Rockies, which isn't that great. But the Dodgers they
54:13
Speaker 1: really haven't been playing that well over the last month
54:15
Speaker 1: or so. Man. They're like well below five hundred over
54:18
Speaker 1: the past month, I think, which is bizarre. Part of
54:20
Speaker 1: it because they can't beat Anaheim. But yeah, I mean
54:23
Speaker 1: they didn't do particularly well in that Rocky Series either.
54:25
Speaker 1: Now they're coming down back to the Pacific Coast, out
54:28
Speaker 1: of elevation, down to San Diego, so the spot is
54:30
Speaker 1: a little bit worse for the Dodgers here. San Diego
54:34
Speaker 1: has the better bullpen as well. The Dodgers have rest,
54:36
Speaker 1: though the Dodgers didn't play yesterday, I believe so. Dodgers
54:40
Speaker 1: of course getting an advantage from the schedule makers here, right,
54:42
Speaker 1: I don't know, my mistake they did play? What am
54:44
Speaker 1: I saying? They played four games? Why do I keep
54:46
Speaker 1: doing that? My mistake? They played yesterday? Never mind both
54:49
Speaker 1: teams played yesterday. So yes, this is a travel disadvantage
54:52
Speaker 1: for the Dodgers here. They used three relief pitchers yesterday
54:56
Speaker 1: San Diego used four. But San Diego you gotta give
54:59
Speaker 1: them the bullpen edge. Still, the Dodgers' bullpen's not very good. Obviously,
55:04
Speaker 1: the Dodgers have the better offense here starting pitching, and
55:07
Speaker 1: then you have to give the edge to the Dodgers
55:08
Speaker 1: as well. This matchup. Blake Snell on the mount here
55:12
Speaker 1: for the Dodgers. He's he hasn't pitched that much this
55:16
Speaker 1: season because he's been injured and he came back from injury.
55:19
Speaker 1: But when he has pitched, he's mostly been good, especially recently.
55:22
Speaker 1: One point eight eer rail though is one point four
55:24
Speaker 1: to four whip is obviously too high. Snell is definitely
55:27
Speaker 1: guy that walks too many guys on. One concern is
55:30
Speaker 1: he hasn't been good on the road five point four
55:32
Speaker 1: era on the road. Although San Diego is a pitcher
55:34
Speaker 1: friendly ballpark here, his only road start was at Tampa Bay,
55:39
Speaker 1: So I don't think there's a whole lot you can
55:40
Speaker 1: really even take away from that because that's a very
55:43
Speaker 1: hitter friendly park and San Diego isn't. San Diego did
55:46
Speaker 1: just see him, however, and he shut them out over
55:48
Speaker 1: six innings last time outs. He's pitched two straight shutouts,
55:52
Speaker 1: has a twenty one to five strike a walk race
55:54
Speaker 1: year this month and a one point six to ninety RA,
55:57
Speaker 1: which is what Snell has done since coming back and
56:00
Speaker 1: being injured since April. So he's been quite good since
56:03
Speaker 1: coming back from injury. Man, So I don't think you
56:05
Speaker 1: really put much weight on what he did in that
56:07
Speaker 1: Tampa game, and he still wasn't even that bad. You
56:09
Speaker 1: only give up three or runs in that game. So
56:11
Speaker 1: Snell he's on his way right now. He's pitching well
56:15
Speaker 1: and against San Diego he has good numbers and one
56:17
Speaker 1: hundred and six at bats against them, thirty to twelve
56:20
Speaker 1: strike aut walk ratio against Snell does kind of walk
56:22
Speaker 1: too many guys, but he strikes out a lot of guys,
56:24
Speaker 1: doesn't allow a lot of hits to seventeen average against
56:27
Speaker 1: San Diego six zh eight oh ps. So I will
56:30
Speaker 1: give him the benefit of the match up here. I
56:32
Speaker 1: think Snell he's the pitcher who's in the better form
56:35
Speaker 1: right now, and he has the better matchup numbers over
56:37
Speaker 1: you Darvish, who is also trying to come back from
56:40
Speaker 1: injury here. Though Darvish is a little bit older, Darvish
56:43
Speaker 1: doesn't throw as hard as Snell does. Darvish is more
56:46
Speaker 1: a guy that tries to fool you with a whole
56:48
Speaker 1: bunch of different pitches that are, you know, throwing all
56:50
Speaker 1: this off speed stuff, trying to mess with your mind.
56:54
Speaker 1: He hasn't been that great this season so far though,
56:56
Speaker 1: five point seven to ninety r RA one point two
56:58
Speaker 1: to whip isn't as bad though, so his whip indicates
57:01
Speaker 1: his ration probably lower. He is good at home three
57:04
Speaker 1: point five two ERA. Again, it's a small sample size,
57:07
Speaker 1: but more of a sample size than what we have
57:09
Speaker 1: a Snell. Darvish did just face the Dodger zone, didn't
57:14
Speaker 1: do well, where a Snell did do well. Against San Diego.
57:17
Speaker 1: Darvish in that same series, in a different game, gave
57:21
Speaker 1: up four and runs in four innings. So though he
57:23
Speaker 1: only walked too and gave up three hits, so he
57:25
Speaker 1: got a little bit unlucky. He gave up two on
57:26
Speaker 1: the runs. Five strikeouts wasn't too bad, So I will
57:31
Speaker 1: say Darvish, maybe he's not in form. That is as
57:34
Speaker 1: bad as maybe it looks there because basically everybody that
57:37
Speaker 1: reached base against them wound up scoring. Does still have
57:40
Speaker 1: a five point one four this month, though, which isn't great.
57:42
Speaker 1: Sixteen to four strike a walk race is pretty good,
57:45
Speaker 1: though Darvish also does have problems with the walks at times.
57:49
Speaker 1: But really he's only had two actual good starts this
57:52
Speaker 1: season against San Francisco and the Mets. One at home
57:57
Speaker 1: against the Mets so in this stadium, and the other
57:59
Speaker 1: at Santa Francisco, but those are pitcher friendly parks. He
58:02
Speaker 1: is at the pitcher friendly home park, this time against
58:05
Speaker 1: the Dodgers. His numbers are good in the past and
58:08
Speaker 1: two hundred and nine at bats, so they've seen a
58:09
Speaker 1: lot of him. Fifty to twenty strikeout walk ratios. Again,
58:13
Speaker 1: that's way too many walks, but a one ninety six
58:15
Speaker 1: batting average allowed in six forty eight ops. So we
58:19
Speaker 1: do have pretty good numbers from Darvish against the Dodgers.
58:22
Speaker 1: So if you're just looking at the matchups and you
58:24
Speaker 1: think Darvish might be a little bit better than he
58:26
Speaker 1: looks right now, could definitely be some arguments for an
58:30
Speaker 1: under in this game. If you want to avoid the
58:32
Speaker 1: Dodgers' bullpen. With the under, you could go first five
58:35
Speaker 1: innings under. The total is at eight, so he might
58:37
Speaker 1: be able to find like a four in the first
58:39
Speaker 1: five innings if you really wanted to go that way.
58:42
Speaker 1: I worry about Darvish a little bit. I mean, even
58:44
Speaker 1: though I do think the spot sets up a little
58:46
Speaker 1: bit better for San Diego. If you go San Diego,
58:48
Speaker 1: you gotta go full game on this, because I think
58:50
Speaker 1: one of their biggest advantages of the bullpen. However, if
58:53
Speaker 1: you want to focus just on the starting pitching matchup.
58:55
Speaker 1: Ere I do think the Dodgers have a pretty decent
58:57
Speaker 1: edge in the starting pitching matchup. You could look to
58:59
Speaker 1: go Dorodgers money line first five innings, and I don't
59:02
Speaker 1: hate that either, which is where the money looks like
59:04
Speaker 1: it's coming in. Dodgers up for minus one seventeen and
59:06
Speaker 1: minus one eighteen. You're probably not getting too much more
59:09
Speaker 1: of a heavy price on them in the start the
59:11
Speaker 1: first five, although I assume you have to pay more
59:14
Speaker 1: than that for the first five because the oddsmakers, of
59:16
Speaker 1: course know the starting pitching is a bigger edge for
59:19
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and the and the bullpen is a disadvantage
59:21
Speaker 1: for them. Sixty ticket seventy percent of the cash coming
59:25
Speaker 1: in on the Dodgers us the money seems to be
59:27
Speaker 1: coming into the Dodgers. Those are my thoughts on that game,
59:30
Speaker 1: though I don't even know which way I would prefer
59:33
Speaker 1: to play that game, to be honest. So maybe with
59:35
Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup, and maybe it does make sense
59:37
Speaker 1: to roll with the money there and go Dodgers first
59:40
Speaker 1: five a's at Seattle to finish off the rundown here
59:43
Speaker 1: before I do the best bets, and then I will
59:45
Speaker 1: do NFL preseason real quick and then get out of here.
59:49
Speaker 1: I believe the A's played yesterday and Seattle did not,
59:53
Speaker 1: but Seattle's returning on from the East Coast, so that
59:55
Speaker 1: kind of negates the advantage. Seattle had a roach triver.
59:59
Speaker 1: They played at baltimohere, they played at the Mets. They
1:00:01
Speaker 1: had to do that world excuse a Little League World
1:00:03
Speaker 1: Series game in Pennsylvania, then they went to Philadelphia. And
1:00:07
Speaker 1: now the returning home from the Eastern time zone. So
1:00:09
Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Seattle, and that the returning
1:00:11
Speaker 1: home from a road trip, a long road trip, and
1:00:14
Speaker 1: you know when you return home from a road trip
1:00:15
Speaker 1: sometimes you're not totally focused, and the A's are not
1:00:18
Speaker 1: exactly a team that's gonna draw Seattle's focus necessarily. So
1:00:22
Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Seattle. Although the A's did
1:00:24
Speaker 1: play yesterday and they were at Minnesota, so they're actually
1:00:28
Speaker 1: having a cross time zones two and they have no rest,
1:00:30
Speaker 1: so the A's they're not really in a good spot
1:00:33
Speaker 1: either man. So that kind of hurts the A's a
1:00:36
Speaker 1: little bit as far as the advantage that they should have.
1:00:39
Speaker 1: They don't have the rest advantage. You know, only these
1:00:40
Speaker 1: two relief pitchers yesterday, but Seattle does still have the
1:00:43
Speaker 1: better bullpen, although the A's bullpen has been better recently,
1:00:46
Speaker 1: but Seattle does have the better bullpend here. The A's
1:00:49
Speaker 1: probably have the better offense of the two of the
1:00:51
Speaker 1: Both teams are decent offensively, but Seattle if you want
1:00:55
Speaker 1: to fade them in the return home spot, which I
1:00:56
Speaker 1: do think usually it's a good idea to look that way.
1:00:59
Speaker 1: But with Seattle, most of their pitchers was so good
1:01:01
Speaker 1: at home it's really difficult to do that, and I
1:01:03
Speaker 1: think it's pretty difficult to do that here. This starting
1:01:05
Speaker 1: pitching matchup is just completely lopsided in favor of Seattle,
1:01:09
Speaker 1: So I just don't think that you could really justify
1:01:12
Speaker 1: doing it. Luis morale As is pitching for the A's.
1:01:15
Speaker 1: One point eight six cra looks good, but one point
1:01:18
Speaker 1: six six whip tells a totally different story putting too
1:01:21
Speaker 1: many guys on base. I know he has a zero
1:01:23
Speaker 1: ERA on the road, but he's only made three appearances.
1:01:25
Speaker 1: He's made one appearance with the starters workload, going five innings.
1:01:29
Speaker 1: Give up one on run against Anheim last time night,
1:01:31
Speaker 1: which was good, no doubt about that. But even though
1:01:35
Speaker 1: the A's have won all three of his appearances. He's
1:01:38
Speaker 1: got a nine to eight strike a walk right here. Man,
1:01:40
Speaker 1: he's putting way too many guys on base, so he
1:01:42
Speaker 1: can't keep getting away with not allowing runs. Although he
1:01:44
Speaker 1: is a young guy, so they do see some talent
1:01:47
Speaker 1: in him, so he might continue to pitch better. So
1:01:50
Speaker 1: he's a little bit difficult to gauge here. Seattle has
1:01:54
Speaker 1: never seen him before, so maybe he has a little
1:01:55
Speaker 1: bit of an edge there. But I don't even know
1:01:57
Speaker 1: how deep we're expecting him to get into this game.
1:02:00
Speaker 1: I still think you gotta trust Brian Wu for Seattle Moore.
1:02:03
Speaker 1: Wu obviously has proven himself over a few years in
1:02:06
Speaker 1: the majors now three point oh two e RA point
1:02:09
Speaker 1: nine to seven whip very good. He's better at home
1:02:11
Speaker 1: two point three nine RA at home this month two
1:02:14
Speaker 1: point three seventy RA with twenty six to three strike
1:02:17
Speaker 1: up walk ratio in nineteen eightx pitch. He's in really
1:02:20
Speaker 1: good this month, not only more than three and runs
1:02:23
Speaker 1: in any of those starts one and two of the three.
1:02:26
Speaker 1: Wu up against the A's oops, excuse me, up against
1:02:30
Speaker 1: the A's good numbers in a huge one hundred one
1:02:33
Speaker 1: at bat sample size twenty six to five strike up
1:02:35
Speaker 1: walk ratio one seventy eight, batting average five to seventy
1:02:39
Speaker 1: three oh ps, so very very good numbers for such
1:02:42
Speaker 1: a big sample size. Have that low of a batting
1:02:44
Speaker 1: average allowed to an entire lineup, that's crazy. Wo is wooing, man,
1:02:49
Speaker 1: He wo's the A's. He seduces them and then and
1:02:54
Speaker 1: then strikes them out basically and rejects them. So, I mean,
1:02:59
Speaker 1: I don't really feel like fading. I will almost never
1:03:01
Speaker 1: fade WU when he's pitching at home. So even though
1:03:04
Speaker 1: I know the spot isn't very good for Seattle, it's
1:03:06
Speaker 1: not a good spot for either team. Seattle actually is
1:03:09
Speaker 1: undecided on their pitcher now. It looks like so maybe
1:03:11
Speaker 1: it won't be Wu. So I guess if it's like
1:03:14
Speaker 1: a bullpen game, you could maybe justify grabbing the A's here.
1:03:19
Speaker 1: Seattle is still in a minus two twenty favorite though,
1:03:22
Speaker 1: so I don't know what's going on. I hope Wu
1:03:23
Speaker 1: isn't hurt, though. Man, this is a difficult game to gauge. Actually,
1:03:27
Speaker 1: both teams in bad spots. Maybe you could maybe justify
1:03:30
Speaker 1: the A's if you're getting like a bullpen game out
1:03:32
Speaker 1: of Seattle here, but that's not gonna be in a
1:03:34
Speaker 1: game I'm gonna touch at all. It's two best bets,
1:03:38
Speaker 1: and then I'll close out the show with NFL preseason
1:03:40
Speaker 1: like I usually do, because my bets are not in
1:03:42
Speaker 1: the preseason. I should be doing it because almost all
1:03:45
Speaker 1: of my team total overs are all hitting in the preseason.
1:03:49
Speaker 1: Best bets Man, the first one up. Maybe you're gonna
1:03:52
Speaker 1: think I'm crazy with this one because this is too
1:03:54
Speaker 1: bad offenses. We're gonna go Rockies and Pirates over the
1:03:57
Speaker 1: eight and a half total here. This is the first
1:04:00
Speaker 1: game on the board here, the earliest game. Obviously. What
1:04:04
Speaker 1: I'm doing here is fading the starting pitching matchup. And
1:04:07
Speaker 1: I know both teams are off yesterday, but we're not
1:04:10
Speaker 1: looking at very good bullpens here really for the most part.
1:04:12
Speaker 1: I mean, I know Pittsburgh has kind of been up
1:04:14
Speaker 1: there with bullpen for a while, but they've trailed off again.
1:04:17
Speaker 1: The Rockies are the second worst bullpen in all of
1:04:19
Speaker 1: Baseball Era wise, Pittsburgh is not very good either with
1:04:23
Speaker 1: the ERA over four. So we definitely have fadable bullpens here,
1:04:26
Speaker 1: even though they are rested on the market. Reds seems
1:04:29
Speaker 1: to be on the over total sitting at eight and
1:04:31
Speaker 1: a half, still not really moving, but fifty four percent
1:04:33
Speaker 1: tickets one hundred percent of the cash on the over each.
1:04:36
Speaker 1: I don't buy that number, but I do think that
1:04:39
Speaker 1: the over is justified here. Pittsburgh is a crazy favorite.
1:04:42
Speaker 1: And my up to mind is win to eighty seven
1:04:43
Speaker 1: at home, eighty two percent of tickets, ninety six percent
1:04:46
Speaker 1: of the cash coning on Pittsburgh. I'm not gonna try
1:04:48
Speaker 1: to play a side here in this one, though, man.
1:04:50
Speaker 1: This is all about the total. Pittsburgh staying at home,
1:04:53
Speaker 1: and they did just win a series against Toronto. Skeins
1:04:56
Speaker 1: was involved in one of those games, because of course
1:04:58
Speaker 1: he was in the first of the to Colorado is
1:05:01
Speaker 1: starting a road trip, coming in from their elevation there
1:05:04
Speaker 1: after playing a pretty tough series against the Dodgers, so
1:05:07
Speaker 1: it could be a bit of a letdown spot there,
1:05:09
Speaker 1: which I know sometimes when that's the case, you want
1:05:10
Speaker 1: to fade their hitting because the bats can be distracted.
1:05:14
Speaker 1: But this is a fade of the pictures here, man.
1:05:16
Speaker 1: I just think these pictures are not good at all,
1:05:19
Speaker 1: and that's what we're gonna That's what we're gonna go
1:05:21
Speaker 1: with the over. I think the total is a little
1:05:22
Speaker 1: bit low. I know Pittsburgh they can't hit. Both these
1:05:26
Speaker 1: offenses are really bad. I get that, and this tends
1:05:28
Speaker 1: to be a picture friendly park, but I think the
1:05:30
Speaker 1: pictures the hitters will be able to. I think kind
1:05:32
Speaker 1: of tee off on these pictures here. I mean, neither
1:05:35
Speaker 1: team has a whole lot to play for here, so
1:05:37
Speaker 1: sometimes you will see guys just kind of go out
1:05:39
Speaker 1: have a little bit of fun when it's a situation
1:05:42
Speaker 1: like that sends a tell. A Pitching for the Rockies,
1:05:44
Speaker 1: and he's even bad by Colorado starters standards. I don't
1:05:48
Speaker 1: even know how he sticks in the starting rotation. Seven
1:05:51
Speaker 1: e er and one point eight to seven whip not good.
1:05:53
Speaker 1: He's basically the same home and away, so even away
1:05:56
Speaker 1: from course field, he doesn't do well. Yes, he did
1:05:58
Speaker 1: have a shutout last time out against Arizona, which is solid.
1:06:02
Speaker 1: Still only had two strikeouts there. But the start before that,
1:06:05
Speaker 1: by the way, was against Pittsburgh and they scored eight
1:06:08
Speaker 1: runs off him in two thirds of an inning. Unbelievably
1:06:12
Speaker 1: bad start. I'm not saying he's gonna do that again,
1:06:14
Speaker 1: but Pittsburgh as bad as their offense is they have
1:06:17
Speaker 1: done well against Sensatela. They had seven hits, two walks
1:06:20
Speaker 1: in that game, a seventeen to sixteen final. Just an
1:06:24
Speaker 1: insane game where I think the Rockies. But that was
1:06:27
Speaker 1: a course field, I know, so you know, not high
1:06:31
Speaker 1: elevation there obviously balls fly out of that ballpark. But
1:06:35
Speaker 1: still he only gave him one home run. He still
1:06:36
Speaker 1: got totally jacked up in that game, and then they
1:06:39
Speaker 1: still won the game after he was out of the game,
1:06:42
Speaker 1: which is unbelievable. Colorado, I think was way behind in
1:06:45
Speaker 1: that game and they want up winning the game anyway.
1:06:47
Speaker 1: I think there was a one inning where both teams
1:06:50
Speaker 1: scored like eight runs. I don't even know, man, and
1:06:54
Speaker 1: then the start before that he was horrific as well.
1:06:57
Speaker 1: His team gave up eighteen runs on the start before
1:07:00
Speaker 1: that against Baltimore and also not a good offense. He
1:07:02
Speaker 1: went four in he'es he have six earned runs in
1:07:04
Speaker 1: that one, and that was on the road, So I
1:07:06
Speaker 1: mean he's pretty much equally bad home and away. His
1:07:09
Speaker 1: numbers against Pittsburgh not just that last start, but Pittsburgh
1:07:12
Speaker 1: has really done damage to him in more than one
1:07:15
Speaker 1: star forty seven at Batsworth four strike, got six walks,
1:07:18
Speaker 1: a ridiculous four to forty seven average a lot in
1:07:21
Speaker 1: oneenty twelve ops. So we're not looking at good numbers
1:07:25
Speaker 1: out of sens of telling here man. And he's going
1:07:27
Speaker 1: up against Braxton Ashcraft for the Pirates, who has been
1:07:30
Speaker 1: coming out of the bullpen, and I know his numbers
1:07:32
Speaker 1: are decent three point oh two ERA, one point twenty
1:07:35
Speaker 1: seven whip. I don't know if he has any relation
1:07:37
Speaker 1: to Graham Ashcraft do I believe he's still on the
1:07:39
Speaker 1: Reds and coming out of their bullpen, but Ashcraft guests.
1:07:43
Speaker 1: I know his numbers are pretty good on the season,
1:07:46
Speaker 1: but he's worse at home. He is a four ERA
1:07:49
Speaker 1: at home, so the splits don't line up well for him.
1:07:52
Speaker 1: He's only gone five innings once in his most recent outing,
1:07:55
Speaker 1: and yes, I know it was against the Cubs. That
1:07:57
Speaker 1: was a big start, but that was his biggest start
1:07:59
Speaker 1: of the seas. He pitched well against the Cubs, so
1:08:02
Speaker 1: I think he might be in a little bit of
1:08:03
Speaker 1: a letdown spot. And the last time he faced the Rockies,
1:08:06
Speaker 1: I know it was a course field, but he didn't
1:08:08
Speaker 1: do well. He went two winnings, gave up three and
1:08:09
Speaker 1: runs on five hits, two walks, probably lucky he didn't
1:08:12
Speaker 1: on more runs than that one morons. Oh no, actually sorry,
1:08:16
Speaker 1: zero walks. Everything is shifted. Never mind, but he didn't
1:08:19
Speaker 1: give up five hits. He struck out to never mind that.
1:08:21
Speaker 1: But yeah, Ashcraft me, I don't even think he's actually
1:08:25
Speaker 1: in really excellent form right now. Although he pitched well
1:08:27
Speaker 1: against the Cubs, but again that could have been one
1:08:29
Speaker 1: of those games where wind was blowing in as well,
1:08:32
Speaker 1: so that helps the pitchers. It was a low scoring game. Again,
1:08:35
Speaker 1: that was his biggest start basically of the season. He
1:08:37
Speaker 1: threw his most pitchers of the season. It was only
1:08:40
Speaker 1: sixty one, but still a guy that's not used to
1:08:42
Speaker 1: throwing that many pitches. It could carry over to the
1:08:45
Speaker 1: next start, which is what I said with like Brandon
1:08:47
Speaker 1: Young yesterday coming into that Houston game, but he was
1:08:50
Speaker 1: coming off almost having a perfect game, so he was
1:08:52
Speaker 1: in a major letdown spot. But I still don't like
1:08:55
Speaker 1: Ashcraft here, and his numbers against the Rockies are not good.
1:08:57
Speaker 1: Even though that was the only time they saw him,
1:08:59
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that now they've seen him. So both
1:09:01
Speaker 1: of these starting pitchers also were just seen by these
1:09:04
Speaker 1: opposing offenses. So again, when that's the case, the offense
1:09:06
Speaker 1: has a little bit of an extra edge. When they
1:09:08
Speaker 1: just saw the starting pitchers and eight at bats, Colorado
1:09:12
Speaker 1: is a three seventy five average and seven to fifty
1:09:14
Speaker 1: ops off Ashcraft, so they've hit him around a little bit.
1:09:18
Speaker 1: And it was basically all just that one start. But
1:09:20
Speaker 1: still we'll go with the over in that one and
1:09:23
Speaker 1: hope that the offenses cannot do something in that one
1:09:26
Speaker 1: because they're bad offenses. But I think the pitching is
1:09:28
Speaker 1: just even worse, which I think Matt is more than
1:09:31
Speaker 1: what the hitting is. So that's playing one on. The
1:09:34
Speaker 1: other two players are both gonna be on starters who
1:09:38
Speaker 1: are coming back from injury Man who I think are
1:09:40
Speaker 1: better than they look, and Houston is maybe the more
1:09:43
Speaker 1: dicey one. I know we're going with Houston again. We
1:09:45
Speaker 1: got the wym with Houston last night. But I think
1:09:47
Speaker 1: Houston broke out of their funk Man. They finally scored runs.
1:09:50
Speaker 1: They scored seven runs or they only scored six over
1:09:52
Speaker 1: the previous seven games, I think, or something like that.
1:09:55
Speaker 1: Houston they broke out Man and they broke that bad
1:09:58
Speaker 1: like streak that they were, So I think that's gonna
1:10:01
Speaker 1: propel them forward. It broke up win streak for Baltimore
1:10:03
Speaker 1: and it broke a loss streak for Houston. And whenever
1:10:06
Speaker 1: you break a streak like that, I think that tends
1:10:08
Speaker 1: to continue and carry over into the next game. So
1:10:11
Speaker 1: that's gonna affect both sides of this matchup. So I
1:10:13
Speaker 1: think that makes this a decent situation for Houston. Like
1:10:16
Speaker 1: I said yesterday, Houston is the better team all around, man,
1:10:19
Speaker 1: I think they have the better bullpend, even though Baltimore's
1:10:21
Speaker 1: bullpen isn't better recently and Houston has actually been worse recently. Houston,
1:10:25
Speaker 1: remember they lost Josh Haydor, who was their closer. Don't
1:10:29
Speaker 1: know if he's coming back, but Houston still has good
1:10:30
Speaker 1: bullpen arms. They did just pick up Craig Kimbrol, by
1:10:34
Speaker 1: the way, so I don't know if he's gonna be available.
1:10:36
Speaker 1: If he's gonna be in the bullpen tonight, you might
1:10:38
Speaker 1: have to worry about him a little bit. But Houston's
1:10:40
Speaker 1: bullpend usage is not a whole lot these three relievers. Yesterday,
1:10:43
Speaker 1: Baltimore also used three. Baltimore is a little bit more
1:10:46
Speaker 1: rested in the bullpen department, but I still think Houston
1:10:49
Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. Overall season numbers indicate that Houston
1:10:53
Speaker 1: does have the better offense of the two teams. Still,
1:10:55
Speaker 1: as well, as bad as their offense has been recently,
1:10:58
Speaker 1: I still think you still have to give the hitting
1:11:00
Speaker 1: edge to Houston here. Baltimore is just not a good
1:11:03
Speaker 1: offense and then starting pitching it that you have to
1:11:06
Speaker 1: give the edge to Houston as well here, man, So
1:11:08
Speaker 1: I think we're getting a cheap price on Houston again. Here.
1:11:11
Speaker 1: Lance mccullors is making his comeback, and I know he's
1:11:14
Speaker 1: really really struggled, man, unfortunately, because again he's been really
1:11:18
Speaker 1: bad at home where he's not at home today. Luckily,
1:11:22
Speaker 1: he's dealing with another injury. He came back from, like
1:11:24
Speaker 1: Tommy John surgery, I think, so he's trying to come
1:11:26
Speaker 1: back from that, and then he injured his finger this year.
1:11:28
Speaker 1: So he's been really just not been healthy. Man. That's
1:11:32
Speaker 1: the thing, because if you look at his career numbers,
1:11:33
Speaker 1: he's obviously so much better than what he's done. He's
1:11:36
Speaker 1: still not that old at thirty one years old. I
1:11:38
Speaker 1: know six point nine Yarra one point seven to four
1:11:41
Speaker 1: whip very very bad numbers this year. But again he's
1:11:43
Speaker 1: got to just stay on the field. Man. His home crowd,
1:11:46
Speaker 1: like you know, yelling death threats at him his stuff.
1:11:48
Speaker 1: They got to stop doing that, man, because again, he's
1:11:50
Speaker 1: been a staple of their team for so long, and
1:11:53
Speaker 1: why would you do that to this guy. But he's
1:11:55
Speaker 1: on the road here, so he doesn't have to worry
1:11:56
Speaker 1: about that. He's a two point h one r on
1:11:58
Speaker 1: the road this year. Is much better on the road
1:12:01
Speaker 1: away from all that bullshit. So I think that's gonna help.
1:12:04
Speaker 1: Even though I know his last start wasn't very good
1:12:06
Speaker 1: on the road at Seattle Walk. Three guys get four
1:12:09
Speaker 1: and runs, five hits and two and two thirds did
1:12:12
Speaker 1: very poorly in that game. Houston was still in the
1:12:14
Speaker 1: game and only lost an extra innings. But I get it.
1:12:17
Speaker 1: But I think maybe he had something messed up with
1:12:19
Speaker 1: his finger. He had to go on the DL for
1:12:22
Speaker 1: that reason. Now he's coming back and I think he
1:12:25
Speaker 1: might do better here. Man and the Orioles. Only Mount
1:12:27
Speaker 1: Castle has ever seen him before. He's zero for two
1:12:30
Speaker 1: of the strikeout some mccolors. Even though he's been around
1:12:32
Speaker 1: for a long time, this Baltimore oriol lineup has never
1:12:35
Speaker 1: actually faced him before, so I think mccullor's is gonna
1:12:38
Speaker 1: have an extra edge here against the Orioles for that reason.
1:12:40
Speaker 1: And yes, I know you're dealing with the guy who
1:12:42
Speaker 1: has to come back from injury, but I haven't looked,
1:12:45
Speaker 1: but you know he must have made some rehab starts. Man.
1:12:47
Speaker 1: We have a veteran like McCullers, has been around for forever.
1:12:50
Speaker 1: I think they tend to do better in their first
1:12:52
Speaker 1: game back from injury, especially you're pitching for the Astros.
1:12:55
Speaker 1: You're on like a run to try to get into
1:12:57
Speaker 1: the playoffs here, you're gonna be pumped up, man, So
1:13:00
Speaker 1: I think mccullar's is going to be pumped up. I
1:13:01
Speaker 1: think Houston still wants to stick it to Baltimore after
1:13:04
Speaker 1: they got shut out in two of the three games
1:13:07
Speaker 1: in the prior series at home, so I think that
1:13:10
Speaker 1: revenge motivation is still there as well. I expect McCullers
1:13:13
Speaker 1: to come out with some fire here and actually pitch
1:13:15
Speaker 1: well in this game. And I think he has the
1:13:16
Speaker 1: extra edge here with Baltimore not having seen him before,
1:13:19
Speaker 1: so that's good as well. So I like all that.
1:13:23
Speaker 1: Then Baltimore has kyd Povich pitching, who generally is the
1:13:26
Speaker 1: worst of these two pitchers. He just has never proven
1:13:29
Speaker 1: himself yet, man, even though I think he might be
1:13:31
Speaker 1: able to improve and do better, but it hasn't really
1:13:33
Speaker 1: happened yet. Four point nine to eighty R one point
1:13:35
Speaker 1: four for whip not exactly great. He's way worse at home,
1:13:39
Speaker 1: so we have some huge home road split advantages with
1:13:42
Speaker 1: Houston here. Povich six point zero five ERA at home
1:13:46
Speaker 1: not good. He has been good recently though. He has
1:13:50
Speaker 1: a twenty two to seven strike a walk race year
1:13:51
Speaker 1: this month, which is pretty good. It's a very high
1:13:53
Speaker 1: strikeout rate because again he had ten against Houston last
1:13:57
Speaker 1: time out to give it three or runs of five innings,
1:13:59
Speaker 1: did walk threes. That's not exactly great. That he walked
1:14:02
Speaker 1: three guys in each of his last two outings. Striking
1:14:04
Speaker 1: out ten against Houston was really good. They still almost
1:14:08
Speaker 1: lost that game though, or no, they did lose that game,
1:14:10
Speaker 1: excuse Houston still won that game at extra innings. Povich
1:14:13
Speaker 1: did pitch well, But I think this is another advantage
1:14:15
Speaker 1: to Houston here because that means Houston just saw Povich,
1:14:18
Speaker 1: so they're recently familiar with him, as Baltimore has never
1:14:21
Speaker 1: seen McCullers before. US I think that's a big unfamiliarity
1:14:24
Speaker 1: edge for McCullers here. Poviches love a four point three
1:14:27
Speaker 1: to two ERA this month, which is very mediocre, even
1:14:30
Speaker 1: though he is pitching a bit better for sure, as
1:14:32
Speaker 1: numbers against Houston, even though he had that pretty decent
1:14:35
Speaker 1: start against the last time out, these are still bad numbers,
1:14:38
Speaker 1: and thirty seven at bats twelve to three strike a
1:14:40
Speaker 1: walk ratio is good, although most of that was that
1:14:42
Speaker 1: one start three twenty four average allowed nine to eighty
1:14:46
Speaker 1: five ops allowed with three different hitters home around homering
1:14:49
Speaker 1: off of him. So his numbers are not good against Houston, man,
1:14:53
Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with Houston in this game. I
1:14:55
Speaker 1: think they got the edge pretty much across the board
1:14:58
Speaker 1: in this game. The money it's agreeing Baltimore open is
1:15:01
Speaker 1: a favorite, which I don't get it. I just don't
1:15:04
Speaker 1: get it, man. I mean, Houston is obviously the better team,
1:15:06
Speaker 1: and I know when something looks wrong usually like the
1:15:10
Speaker 1: oddsmakers are not gonna throw on a line that's like
1:15:12
Speaker 1: wrong intentionally, you know what I mean. But I just
1:15:15
Speaker 1: think Houston's getting undervalued in the market because of their
1:15:18
Speaker 1: bad recent performance. Baltimore down for a minut's one to
1:15:20
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes, one O eight, sixty four percent of tickets,
1:15:23
Speaker 1: eighty one percent of the cash on Houston. So we'll
1:15:26
Speaker 1: try to do what we did yesterday and we'll go
1:15:27
Speaker 1: with Houston again today. Man, even though I think yesterday
1:15:30
Speaker 1: was a stronger situation, but I think the Starning pitching
1:15:33
Speaker 1: match is very much in favor of them. You could
1:15:35
Speaker 1: go first five innings as well, but I think Houston.
1:15:37
Speaker 1: I'm still gonna give him a bullpen edge here and
1:15:39
Speaker 1: an overall edge in the game, so we'll go full game.
1:15:42
Speaker 1: Money seems to be coming in that way, like I said,
1:15:45
Speaker 1: more of the cash on them and fading Baltimore. So
1:15:47
Speaker 1: that's that. And then finally we're gonna have a road
1:15:49
Speaker 1: run line on Toronto with another pitcher who we haven't
1:15:52
Speaker 1: heard his name in a long time, and I think
1:15:54
Speaker 1: for that reason he's gonna be overlooked. I think both
1:15:56
Speaker 1: McCullers and Shane Bieber in this game are both gonna
1:16:00
Speaker 1: be overlooked here. So Toronto, I mean, they were good
1:16:02
Speaker 1: to me last time I went with them on a
1:16:04
Speaker 1: run line, which I think was on the road, So
1:16:06
Speaker 1: let's do it again. Because the money line price is
1:16:09
Speaker 1: too high on Toronto here, so I think the way
1:16:11
Speaker 1: to go is the run line. You could get minus
1:16:13
Speaker 1: one and a half runs at plus one oh five, and
1:16:15
Speaker 1: at least you know that. Because they're on the road,
1:16:17
Speaker 1: that means they're gonna bat all nine innings here to
1:16:19
Speaker 1: help pad their lead. So that's good Toronto against Miami
1:16:22
Speaker 1: here is this matchup Toronto Obviously, I think they have
1:16:25
Speaker 1: the edge across the board here man, which is another
1:16:27
Speaker 1: reason why we're doing this. They have the better offense.
1:16:29
Speaker 1: I think they have the better bullpen, and they have
1:16:31
Speaker 1: the better starting pitcher here as well, So it's all
1:16:34
Speaker 1: in favor of Toronto here Man. Miami, neither of these
1:16:38
Speaker 1: teams played yesterday, so both teams were off yesterday, so
1:16:41
Speaker 1: both teams are rested. Miami, they are staying at home,
1:16:47
Speaker 1: so they do have a little bit of a travel edge.
1:16:49
Speaker 1: I guess they're coming out of a series at home
1:16:51
Speaker 1: against Saint Louis. Toronto has something to play for those.
1:16:54
Speaker 1: That's another reason, Man. The Yankees and the Red Sox
1:16:57
Speaker 1: not too far behind Toronto here in the Alronto's still
1:17:00
Speaker 1: going to keep playing, man in. Toronto's lost three of
1:17:02
Speaker 1: their last four and losing to Pittsburgh, I think that's
1:17:05
Speaker 1: going to pitch them off. So I think having a
1:17:06
Speaker 1: day off after that, getting to just get out of
1:17:08
Speaker 1: there and travel, I think is actually probably helpful to Toronto.
1:17:12
Speaker 1: Going from Pittsburgh to Miami not exactly a huge travel spot.
1:17:15
Speaker 1: So I think my Toronto's gonna be focused on this game, man,
1:17:19
Speaker 1: because they were in the hunt. They need to keep
1:17:20
Speaker 1: winning here, just like Houston, I think as a motivational edge,
1:17:23
Speaker 1: just because they need to keep winning as well. So
1:17:26
Speaker 1: Toronto here as well. But as I mentioned, he got
1:17:28
Speaker 1: Shane Bieber pitching for Toronto, man, and we've forgotten about
1:17:32
Speaker 1: this guy because he's been He hasn't pitched in the
1:17:35
Speaker 1: majors since early last year. Unfortunately, he got injured and
1:17:39
Speaker 1: he's been on the injury list since then. I don't
1:17:42
Speaker 1: know if he had Tommy John surgery or what. But
1:17:44
Speaker 1: last year he was off to an amazing start. He
1:17:46
Speaker 1: went two six inning shutout performances at the beginning of
1:17:50
Speaker 1: last year with twenty strikeouts in one walk. He was
1:17:52
Speaker 1: out of control in a good way, not in a
1:17:55
Speaker 1: bad way. He was not walking anybody really. He was
1:17:58
Speaker 1: completely dominant in those two starts. At the A's not
1:18:01
Speaker 1: at the A Stadium though, that was actually at Oakland
1:18:03
Speaker 1: in the old Oakland Coliseum, the sewage filled stadium there,
1:18:07
Speaker 1: and then which probably slows down the hitting, to be honest,
1:18:10
Speaker 1: and then at Seattle, which I know is the picture
1:18:12
Speaker 1: front the party. But Bieber he was dominant. Man. You
1:18:15
Speaker 1: look at his career numbers, really really good numbers. His
1:18:18
Speaker 1: entire career has been with Cleveland up until now three
1:18:20
Speaker 1: point two two. We are a one point one two whip.
1:18:23
Speaker 1: Everybody's forgotten about him. Man. If Toronto's gonna make a
1:18:25
Speaker 1: playoff push here, Bieber is gonna be a huge addition
1:18:28
Speaker 1: to their starting rotation, man, because like they have, Eric
1:18:31
Speaker 1: Lower has been doing really well. They got Max Scherzer
1:18:34
Speaker 1: in the rotation here now, Gusstman has been pretty consistent.
1:18:37
Speaker 1: They still have Burrio's there too. I mean, this starting
1:18:40
Speaker 1: pitcher rotation really ain't bad, man, especially Bieber's gonna be back.
1:18:44
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be a big part of it. Man.
1:18:45
Speaker 1: His entire career really has been really good, except for
1:18:48
Speaker 1: his first season, which of course you can definitely you
1:18:50
Speaker 1: can definitely excuse not doing well in your first season.
1:18:54
Speaker 1: You know what, I mean, but he's been had he's
1:18:55
Speaker 1: had some injury concerns, so that's the issue. But at
1:18:57
Speaker 1: this point he's a veteran too, so I think he's
1:18:59
Speaker 1: gonna be ready to go. Man. Haven't seen what his
1:19:02
Speaker 1: reap starts looked like. But you know, these guys rehab,
1:19:05
Speaker 1: they're not gonna start a major league game, especially in
1:19:08
Speaker 1: a crucial moment of the season like this, unless the
1:19:10
Speaker 1: team thinks that they're gonna be ready to go, man,
1:19:12
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be able to pitch well and help
1:19:14
Speaker 1: their team. So I like all that for Shane Bieber here, man,
1:19:17
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be pumped. He gets to pitch
1:19:19
Speaker 1: for a contender. It's gonna be his first game with
1:19:21
Speaker 1: his new team where he actually pitches in the majors.
1:19:24
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be excited about it. He's gonna
1:19:26
Speaker 1: want to pitch well. Here. He gets to face a
1:19:28
Speaker 1: fairly weak offense as well, so that's a good sign
1:19:30
Speaker 1: as well. Up against Miami, I don't even know if
1:19:32
Speaker 1: they've ever even seen Bieber before, because he's been in
1:19:35
Speaker 1: the AL for so long. Only two of their hitters
1:19:37
Speaker 1: have ever seen him before, Hill and Weimer. Weimer Weimar
1:19:42
Speaker 1: Ranner Wiener, Joey Weimer, Weimer, it's the Weimar Republic man.
1:19:47
Speaker 1: So we'll see if they have a hyper inflation affecting
1:19:52
Speaker 1: them here, and maybe it'll be the downfall of their
1:19:55
Speaker 1: regime or whatever. But those guys are only zero for
1:19:57
Speaker 1: two with one strike at one walk lifetime again Miami,
1:20:00
Speaker 1: so kind of just like with mccullor's, Bieber is like
1:20:04
Speaker 1: completely unfamiliar to Miami, So I think that's an extra
1:20:06
Speaker 1: edge for Bieber. We have undecided listed as Miami's starter here,
1:20:10
Speaker 1: but they actually it looks like they have listed Ryan
1:20:13
Speaker 1: Gusto as their starter hero at trec here, which I
1:20:15
Speaker 1: think is part of the reason why the line shot
1:20:17
Speaker 1: up on Toronto because the betting market is not respecting
1:20:20
Speaker 1: Ryan Gusto. I mean, maybe I don't respect him. Four
1:20:25
Speaker 1: point eight ninety one point four whip those are not
1:20:28
Speaker 1: good numbers. I mean, he's obviously the lesser of these
1:20:30
Speaker 1: two pitchers. It's not even close. He was on Houston
1:20:33
Speaker 1: most of the season. He's made one start with Miami
1:20:35
Speaker 1: at Atlanta. He did pitch well, went six innings. They
1:20:38
Speaker 1: lost the game anyway, because he got no run support
1:20:40
Speaker 1: at all, gave up three on runs, eight strikeouts was
1:20:43
Speaker 1: nice and two walks. But Gusto, I mean, he's proven
1:20:47
Speaker 1: that he's not I don't know. I mean, sometimes he
1:20:49
Speaker 1: does have a high strikeout range, sometimes he doesn't. He's
1:20:52
Speaker 1: proven that he walks too many guys, he gives up
1:20:54
Speaker 1: a few too many hits, a few too many home runs.
1:20:56
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to say that Gusto is really necessarily
1:20:59
Speaker 1: any good and batter versus pitcher. Here against Toronto. He
1:21:03
Speaker 1: does have good numbers, but it's at a small sixteen
1:21:05
Speaker 1: at bat sample size and they've at least seen him
1:21:07
Speaker 1: before one eighty eight batting average, four to thirty eight ohps.
1:21:10
Speaker 1: So I know I'm gonna fade him here, two strikeouts,
1:21:13
Speaker 1: no walks. I will fade Gusto as far as his
1:21:16
Speaker 1: matchup numbers against Toronto which he faced them this year,
1:21:19
Speaker 1: and he went five to two thirds, six strikeouts, one walk,
1:21:22
Speaker 1: gave a one on run at home at that was
1:21:25
Speaker 1: in Houston against Toronto, three hits allowed. So now he's
1:21:29
Speaker 1: this is actually his first home game with Miami, so
1:21:33
Speaker 1: kind of an interesting scenario here where he hasn't pitched
1:21:35
Speaker 1: in this stadium yet this year, So we'll see how
1:21:39
Speaker 1: he does. I don't know if the nerves are gonna
1:21:40
Speaker 1: get to him first time pitching at home here, But again,
1:21:44
Speaker 1: I think the motivation is all on Toronto side. The
1:21:46
Speaker 1: money has come in on Toronto even though they're gonna
1:21:48
Speaker 1: be public. They're one of those public road favorites here,
1:21:51
Speaker 1: which usually I don't like to play eighty six percent
1:21:53
Speaker 1: of tickets ninety four percent of the cash on them,
1:21:55
Speaker 1: but the line has moved up from minus one thirty
1:21:57
Speaker 1: three to minus one sixty on them. I think Toronto
1:22:00
Speaker 1: has to be the right way to go here. I mean,
1:22:02
Speaker 1: Shane Bieber coming back is definitely an exciting thing for them.
1:22:05
Speaker 1: Totals drop from eight and a half to eight, so
1:22:07
Speaker 1: do what you will with that information. So it seems
1:22:09
Speaker 1: like money coming in on the under as well, ninety
1:22:11
Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, only seventy eight percent of the
1:22:13
Speaker 1: cash coming in on the over, So you do have
1:22:15
Speaker 1: rested bullpens the movement towards the under, kind of saying
1:22:20
Speaker 1: they think maybe both starters might actually do well, which
1:22:22
Speaker 1: I could see that. I'm not going to disagree with
1:22:24
Speaker 1: the under in this one, because they do think Gusto
1:22:27
Speaker 1: could also pitch well. But I just think Toronto has
1:22:29
Speaker 1: the edge across the board. I think Bieber is the
1:22:31
Speaker 1: much better pitcher. I think it's a better spot. He
1:22:33
Speaker 1: has the unfamiliarity had Toronto's got the better offense and
1:22:36
Speaker 1: better bullpend. So that's where we're going there, and let's
1:22:39
Speaker 1: finish it off with some NFL preseason talk real quick.
1:22:41
Speaker 1: Here we have four games tonight, some NFL preseason on
1:22:45
Speaker 1: a Friday before we get into the actual season. Here,
1:22:48
Speaker 1: Eagles Jets. It's very weird to see the Jets being
1:22:50
Speaker 1: favored up from minus one to minus two here at
1:22:53
Speaker 1: the Medal Lens. Jets I think played as the road
1:22:56
Speaker 1: team in the Medal Lands the last time they were
1:22:58
Speaker 1: here against the Giants. The Jets, I think might not
1:23:00
Speaker 1: even be traveling. They're just staying here. So that might
1:23:03
Speaker 1: be part of the reason why the money seems to
1:23:05
Speaker 1: be coming in on them fifty percent. Take a sixty
1:23:07
Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the Jets. You know
1:23:09
Speaker 1: what this means that the Eagles are not playing their starters, man,
1:23:12
Speaker 1: I mean, there's no reason to do it if you're
1:23:14
Speaker 1: the Eagles, although you might get off to a slow
1:23:16
Speaker 1: start early in the season, but you don't want to
1:23:19
Speaker 1: get your guys hurt. I mean, there are definitely some
1:23:21
Speaker 1: conflicting Like you know, there are coaches that disagree on
1:23:25
Speaker 1: that and that have feelings one way or the other
1:23:27
Speaker 1: about it. Like personally, I think I would try to
1:23:29
Speaker 1: get my starters into the game a little bit, just
1:23:31
Speaker 1: to get them a game under their belt, because you
1:23:33
Speaker 1: don't like your best players to come in completely cold
1:23:36
Speaker 1: in the first game of a season where you only
1:23:37
Speaker 1: have seventeen games in the season, you know what I mean.
1:23:40
Speaker 1: But I don't think we're gonna see Hurts or Barkley here.
1:23:43
Speaker 1: We don't want to get them hurt. The Jets. I
1:23:46
Speaker 1: believe the Jets are not gonna play justin fields in
1:23:48
Speaker 1: this game either, So you're gonna see all backups here
1:23:50
Speaker 1: for both teams. Here. With Philadelphia, it's gonna be Tanner, McKee,
1:23:53
Speaker 1: Kyle McCord, and then I forget what else they even have,
1:23:57
Speaker 1: but their depth. I mean, they have decent experience. He has,
1:24:00
Speaker 1: oh yeah, Dtr not a fan of him, and McKee,
1:24:03
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's playing because he's questionable, So
1:24:05
Speaker 1: you might see mostly dtr and McCord. McCord do they
1:24:08
Speaker 1: want to get him some playing time? Because he's a
1:24:09
Speaker 1: rookie that they drafted. Dtr has experience, but I mean
1:24:15
Speaker 1: it's bad experience. I mean he hasn't been good, so
1:24:17
Speaker 1: I don't That might be part of the reason why
1:24:19
Speaker 1: the Jets are favorite, too, because that rotation really seems bad.
1:24:22
Speaker 1: The Jets have Tyrod Taylor, but he's questionable as well,
1:24:25
Speaker 1: so I don't know if you're gonna see him either.
1:24:27
Speaker 1: So for the Jets, you might see Adrian Martinez and
1:24:29
Speaker 1: Brady Cook. That looks like some bad quarterbacking there too.
1:24:32
Speaker 1: So this total is way way down for a key
1:24:35
Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half all the way down to
1:24:37
Speaker 1: thirty three. Juice to the over. Thirty seven is a
1:24:40
Speaker 1: key number on the total man, and so is thirty four.
1:24:42
Speaker 1: But I think if you're looking at this and saying,
1:24:44
Speaker 1: oh my god, these quarterback rotations are awful and the
1:24:48
Speaker 1: money seems to be a green that we think this
1:24:50
Speaker 1: is gonna be a lower scoring game. If you can
1:24:52
Speaker 1: find a thirty four and go under that, maybe that's
1:24:54
Speaker 1: the way to look in this game. But it's a
1:24:56
Speaker 1: little bit dicey, probably eighty percent to take a seventy
1:24:58
Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the old and I
1:25:00
Speaker 1: know a lot of these games have gone over in
1:25:02
Speaker 1: the preseason here, but we're in preseason week three now,
1:25:05
Speaker 1: a little bit of a different story here. I just
1:25:08
Speaker 1: think we have bad quarterback rotations in this matchup now
1:25:12
Speaker 1: that I dig into a little bit further, and the
1:25:14
Speaker 1: public is only coming in on the over here because
1:25:16
Speaker 1: they think they don't realize we're getting third and four
1:25:18
Speaker 1: string quarterbacks in this one. And these teams do still
1:25:21
Speaker 1: have to decide who makes the final roster. Two Falcons
1:25:24
Speaker 1: at the Cowboys. I think Falcons gotta think that they
1:25:28
Speaker 1: probably should still have Pennis in there because he is
1:25:31
Speaker 1: their young guy. They probably want to get him some
1:25:33
Speaker 1: playing time. There's still I don't know if he's even
1:25:35
Speaker 1: gonna play in this game though. It seems like because
1:25:37
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are favored, we might not get any Pennix.
1:25:40
Speaker 1: We're not gonna get any Poenix in this game here.
1:25:43
Speaker 1: Cowboys up from one and a half to two and
1:25:44
Speaker 1: a half. The Cowboys probably a little bit motivated to
1:25:47
Speaker 1: try to win one here in Jerry World, under Shotneimer
1:25:49
Speaker 1: because they didn't get it done against the Ravens last
1:25:52
Speaker 1: time out, which I thought they would be able to.
1:25:55
Speaker 1: The Cowboys have Joe Milton, the third. He's gonna be
1:25:57
Speaker 1: playing Irish I mentioned. I think he's a talented quarter.
1:26:00
Speaker 1: They want to get him some playing time. I think
1:26:01
Speaker 1: he could potentially go out there and do well with Atlanta.
1:26:05
Speaker 1: I don't even know who else they have beyond Michael Pennix,
1:26:08
Speaker 1: to be honest, man, they still have Kirk Cousins, who
1:26:10
Speaker 1: I guess is the backup. But he's the guy that
1:26:12
Speaker 1: I don't think is really gonna play in preseason. There's
1:26:15
Speaker 1: no real need. He's a veteran. I don't think he
1:26:16
Speaker 1: needs to get out there. So you're probably gonna get
1:26:18
Speaker 1: a lot of Easton Stick again for Atlanta, and then
1:26:20
Speaker 1: I don't even know who Ben Denucci is. But Easton
1:26:23
Speaker 1: Stick does have experience as well. He's definitely played in
1:26:26
Speaker 1: the NFL, as I mentioned for the Cardinals when Herbert
1:26:29
Speaker 1: was hurt, and he actually hasn't been that bad. So
1:26:31
Speaker 1: I mean this game, I mean, if you do like Dallas,
1:26:35
Speaker 1: it does get a little bit dicey, man, because it's
1:26:37
Speaker 1: Joe Milton against those guys. Doesn't seem like it's a
1:26:40
Speaker 1: huge advantage for Dallas. Obviously, Dak Prescott won't be playing
1:26:43
Speaker 1: for Dallas. Will Greer, is there are other quarterback that
1:26:46
Speaker 1: might get into the mix. Minnesota at Tennessee, This one's
1:26:50
Speaker 1: gonna be interesting. Tennessee's all the way up to a
1:26:52
Speaker 1: five point favorite now from being initially a one and
1:26:54
Speaker 1: a half point underdog. It looks like that's probably because
1:26:57
Speaker 1: Minnesota is deciding not to play anybody. Though you'd think
1:27:00
Speaker 1: they would get JJ mccarth through more playing time because
1:27:03
Speaker 1: he's a like this is gonna be his first season,
1:27:05
Speaker 1: because he missed last all of last season with an injury.
1:27:08
Speaker 1: You gotta think the Vikings might want to get him
1:27:10
Speaker 1: out there and get him a little more playing time,
1:27:12
Speaker 1: though obviously don't want to get him hurt. But it's
1:27:13
Speaker 1: bizarre to see Tennessee that much of a favorite. Cam
1:27:17
Speaker 1: Ward will be out there for a bit. For sure,
1:27:19
Speaker 1: Tennessee is going to play Hi, which is what that
1:27:21
Speaker 1: number is indicating. So I think if you're gonna play
1:27:23
Speaker 1: this game, I think it would have to be Tennessee
1:27:25
Speaker 1: over their team total. Again, it's one of those types
1:27:27
Speaker 1: of games. The total is sitting at thirty seven here,
1:27:30
Speaker 1: sixty five percent takes ninety percent of the cash. On
1:27:32
Speaker 1: the over, we have seventy one percent of the cash
1:27:34
Speaker 1: on Tennessee and fifty four percent of tickets on Minnesota. Again,
1:27:37
Speaker 1: I'm thinking, yeah, if you go with this game, I'm
1:27:40
Speaker 1: thinking you probably just go over the Tennessee team total.
1:27:42
Speaker 1: I don't think you can lay a price like this.
1:27:44
Speaker 1: Just go with Tennessee to have cam Ward out there
1:27:46
Speaker 1: and score on some points. For the most part, there
1:27:49
Speaker 1: is probably what you're gonna get there. As far as
1:27:51
Speaker 1: the quarterback depth, I don't even know what what exactly
1:27:53
Speaker 1: we're looking at for backups. Minnesota has Sam Howell, who
1:27:57
Speaker 1: does at least have experience, at least not very good.
1:27:59
Speaker 1: Brett Ripping is there. I mean, he's also had some experience.
1:28:02
Speaker 1: I don't even know who Max Brosmer is. So that's
1:28:05
Speaker 1: what they got going on there a little bit. They
1:28:07
Speaker 1: have some experienced quarterbacks there though for Minnesota, so maybe
1:28:10
Speaker 1: that five line is a little bit too high. And
1:28:12
Speaker 1: then Tennessee, I theyk got Brandon Allen and Trevor Simeon
1:28:17
Speaker 1: will Levis on the IR. Simeon has definitely played a bit.
1:28:20
Speaker 1: He's started in the NFL before, so he does have experience,
1:28:23
Speaker 1: even though he hasn't been that good. I think he
1:28:25
Speaker 1: was on the Jets for a while. He made some
1:28:27
Speaker 1: starts there which didn't go too well. Brandon Allen I
1:28:30
Speaker 1: think has made some starts in the NFL as well,
1:28:33
Speaker 1: So a little bit of experience on both sides. And
1:28:35
Speaker 1: then Bears at the Chiefs, you know, because the Chiefs
1:28:37
Speaker 1: at arrowheader down from three to one and a half here.
1:28:39
Speaker 1: Obviously Mahomes is not going to be in this game.
1:28:43
Speaker 1: The Chiefs have no need to play him. Bears have
1:28:45
Speaker 1: been playing their starters. I think Caleb Williams will probably
1:28:48
Speaker 1: get some more time in this game. I they want
1:28:50
Speaker 1: to get him more playing time there most likely Tyson Pagent,
1:28:53
Speaker 1: the Bears backup. I think he's better than Caleb Williams. Man.
1:28:57
Speaker 1: He gets on the shit because he's a D two quarterback,
1:28:59
Speaker 1: but they signed him to a contract extension for a
1:29:02
Speaker 1: couple of years. I think Beigent maybe should be starting somewhere,
1:29:05
Speaker 1: even including maybe for the Bears, because I actually think
1:29:08
Speaker 1: Beigent is good. You know me, I have it on record.
1:29:13
Speaker 1: I don't think kill Williams is that good. I don't
1:29:15
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be a great quarterback. I like Beaigent though,
1:29:19
Speaker 1: despite the D two stuff. I mean he has he
1:29:21
Speaker 1: has a pedigree man because Beagent's father is one of
1:29:26
Speaker 1: the best arm wrestlers in history, so Beigent he's got
1:29:30
Speaker 1: that strength in his family history. Man good genetics for Beijent,
1:29:34
Speaker 1: but Beijent probably will be in this game as well,
1:29:36
Speaker 1: and he's got decent experience as well at this point.
1:29:39
Speaker 1: So that is why the line is moving towards the Bears.
1:29:42
Speaker 1: This total has gone way up from thirty eight and
1:29:44
Speaker 1: a half to forty two. Totals moved too far too
1:29:46
Speaker 1: but you might still be able to find some way
1:29:49
Speaker 1: to play the Bears, maybe on their team totally. You
1:29:51
Speaker 1: could go with the Bears because they are gonna have
1:29:52
Speaker 1: the better quarterback rotation in this game. So that's probably
1:29:55
Speaker 1: the way that I would look there. With the Bears
1:29:57
Speaker 1: and the Bears, I believe still have Austin Reid. They
1:30:01
Speaker 1: have case Keenum, but I don't think he's gotten into
1:30:02
Speaker 1: any of these games because he's been hurt. But he's
1:30:04
Speaker 1: definitely a veteran with a lot of experience, including he
1:30:07
Speaker 1: was the quarterback who threw that famous pass where I
1:30:11
Speaker 1: had money on the game on the Vikings where they
1:30:13
Speaker 1: blew the lead and came back and won on that
1:30:14
Speaker 1: ridiculous Digs touchdown to beat the Saints in the playoffs.
1:30:18
Speaker 1: I was on a plane when it happened, watching it
1:30:20
Speaker 1: on the plane, and everybody on the plane was rooted
1:30:23
Speaker 1: for New Orleans and I was like, sorry, I just
1:30:26
Speaker 1: won money on that Hail Mary Baby, which it should
1:30:28
Speaker 1: have been a way easier when Minnesota had blown the
1:30:31
Speaker 1: game and that, but that was case Keenum in that game.
1:30:33
Speaker 1: So he definitely has experience. And then Austin Reid at
1:30:35
Speaker 1: this point has decent experience that he's playing in preseason
1:30:38
Speaker 1: because he's been around for a while on this Bears
1:30:41
Speaker 1: roster as well, so their quarterback depth chart is actually
1:30:44
Speaker 1: fairly solid for preseason. And then Kids of City. I
1:30:48
Speaker 1: mean they got Gardner Minshew and Bailey Zappi. I mean
1:30:51
Speaker 1: they've had some playing time there. Zappi I think was
1:30:54
Speaker 1: out there for the Patriots. Is that where he was?
1:30:56
Speaker 1: And then Minshew has been around. I like Minshew man,
1:30:59
Speaker 1: he's been around with the Eagles, the Colts. He's made
1:31:01
Speaker 1: a lot of starts. He's an experienced quarterback. So if
1:31:04
Speaker 1: he's in there, I mean, I think that's why the
1:31:06
Speaker 1: total is so high. I Mean, these both teams actually
1:31:09
Speaker 1: have pretty decent quarterback depth here, so I could see
1:31:11
Speaker 1: an argument for just going over on the full game,
1:31:13
Speaker 1: but you've lost some value on that is just crossed
1:31:18
Speaker 1: through forty one, which I think is another key number,
1:31:20
Speaker 1: seventy tickets ninety four percent of the cash on the over.
1:31:23
Speaker 1: But I would still probably only look to the over there,
1:31:26
Speaker 1: probably full game actually more so than just Bear's team total.
1:31:29
Speaker 1: But Bear's team total doesn't seem that bad either. Anyway,
1:31:32
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it Man hour and a half. I
1:31:34
Speaker 1: thought I was gonna be closer to a little bit
1:31:36
Speaker 1: over an hour today, but that's gonna do it. My
1:31:38
Speaker 1: play is one more time over in Rockies, Pirates over
1:31:41
Speaker 1: the eight and a half, Houston Astro's money line, Toronto
1:31:44
Speaker 1: blue Jays run line, Let's get it done. That's gonna
1:31:47
Speaker 1: do it. Learned to tone on Twitter and learn it
1:31:49
Speaker 1: tone on Instagram. Short betting content that I post there
1:31:53
Speaker 1: better off dead obviously, like subscribe to the channel, give
1:31:56
Speaker 1: me comments, et cetera on Spotify and audio up the
1:32:00
Speaker 1: audio platforms as well, Apple as well, so you can
1:32:02
Speaker 1: go rate the show over there, give me a good review, baby,
1:32:06
Speaker 1: and then covering in yuke My You Project on YouTube.
1:32:09
Speaker 1: Is there as well pedroon dot com slash learn to
1:32:11
Speaker 1: Toad you can get some bonus Uke content as well,
1:32:15
Speaker 1: so go check all that out. Thanks again, And I
1:32:17
Speaker 1: will actually be returning to the Stu Peters Show. I
1:32:22
Speaker 1: believe we're gonna record that today, so you can go
1:32:24
Speaker 1: find that. It might be live as well, So I
1:32:26
Speaker 1: think that's gonna be in about an hour, so go
1:32:28
Speaker 1: look forward to that as well. And uh tonight, I'll
1:32:32
Speaker 1: be back and do a college Football Week zero video.
1:32:35
Speaker 1: I don't even know if it's worth it to do
1:32:37
Speaker 1: a standalone Week zero but I did do it last year.
1:32:40
Speaker 1: It'll be a short video for sure, but I believe
1:32:43
Speaker 1: just to satisfy you guys, I'll give I'll give up
1:32:45
Speaker 1: one play. I'll be a good lover and I will
1:32:48
Speaker 1: give up one play on one of the games. That's
1:32:50
Speaker 1: gonna do it. Everybody, have a good Friday, kick off
1:32:53
Speaker 1: the weekend, right and peace