Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC DFS Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC DFS Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:04
Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff.
0:36
Speaker 2: What is going on, everybody? We are back talking some fights.
0:39
Speaker 2: UFC fight night in Edmonton, Canada, 5 p.m. Eastern. 13
0:46
Speaker 2: fights is good for DFS. Nine of the 13 are
0:49
Speaker 2: expected to finish. Pretty good for DFS. Only one favorite,
0:53
Speaker 2: minus 350 or greater. Pretty good for DFS. So we
0:57
Speaker 2: were talking a little pre-show, not the biggest name value.
1:01
Speaker 2: But hey, I think for Daily Fantasy, as long as
1:03
Speaker 2: we keep all 13 fights We're in for a pretty
1:05
Speaker 2: solid one. Throw it to Big Marley. How are we
1:07
Speaker 2: doing over there today on this fine Thursday afternoon?
1:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, not too bad. Hopefully it's a good DFS card
1:14
Speaker 1: because it's definitely not my favorite one name value wise.
1:18
Speaker 1: Really just goes to show they have too many people
1:20
Speaker 1: on the roster that they're putting together a 13 fight
1:22
Speaker 1: card with these names on there. But hopefully one of
1:25
Speaker 1: us profits and then I'll be happy about it.
1:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, too many on the roster. Too many events in
1:30
Speaker 2: a row, you could probably say. I mean, we've been
1:32
Speaker 2: absolutely on the grind it feels like the past like
1:35
Speaker 2: eight nine weeks i've lost track we still got a
1:37
Speaker 2: couple more than we have i believe a two-week break
1:40
Speaker 2: we saw thanksgiving in the week after if i uh
1:43
Speaker 2: if i looked at it correctly and then always in
1:46
Speaker 2: december at the second half of december early half of
1:49
Speaker 2: january but yeah man it's been a it's been a
1:51
Speaker 2: grind for the ufc trying to jumble these fighters together
1:55
Speaker 2: make these um some matchmaking i mean there is plenty
1:58
Speaker 2: of uh of low level fights in this one, I think,
2:01
Speaker 2: but some solid ones as well. Again, no favorite more
2:04
Speaker 2: or one favorite minus three 50 or greater. And nine
2:07
Speaker 2: of the 13 fights expected to finish with 13 fights
2:10
Speaker 2: on the card. Just as good for DFS that way.
2:13
Speaker 2: So I think you can leave money for sure. When
2:16
Speaker 2: it comes to that, I think you can fade the
2:17
Speaker 2: main event. I think every single fight is fadable this week.
2:21
Speaker 2: That's kind of my broad slate. Leave money. You can play.
2:23
Speaker 2: Dogs should come through. No fight stack. No must fight
2:28
Speaker 2: that you have, which is good for me. I think
2:30
Speaker 2: ownership will be relatively spread out and a strong mid tier.
2:34
Speaker 2: I should mention as well, main events, minus one 80
2:37
Speaker 2: to finish, uh, 83, 7,900 minus three 25 to finish 8,200,
2:42
Speaker 2: eight K minus one 70 to finish then plus one
2:45
Speaker 2: Oh five for the fourth mid tier fight. But I
2:48
Speaker 2: do think the mid tier is going to be a
2:49
Speaker 2: big part of what people do this week. And, uh, yeah,
2:52
Speaker 2: I mean, I'll be jamming the mid tier pretty heavy myself.
2:55
Speaker 2: Any broad slate for you before we go bottom to top?
2:59
Speaker 1: No, uh, Mid-tier is going to be super important, that 7.8K
3:06
Speaker 1: to 8.5K range. I think you've got to get those
3:09
Speaker 1: right calls in those fights. All three are going to
3:11
Speaker 1: be tough to call right, but if you're putting in
3:13
Speaker 1: MME lineups, then that's just what you've got to bank
3:16
Speaker 1: to knock out the optimal.
3:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're on the same page there for sure. Let
3:21
Speaker 2: me just head over to ShipItNation.com real quick. As you
3:25
Speaker 2: can see, the ShipIt Nation prizes was in the $ 46, 000 range,
3:29
Speaker 2: And shout out to our man Sharks. I know we
3:31
Speaker 2: have a graphic. Yeah, let me pull that up. Sharks
3:33
Speaker 2: sometimes in here does some good work for us in
3:36
Speaker 2: the NHL chat, helps the people out. But man, just
3:38
Speaker 2: crushes himself in multiple sports and had a big NFL
3:42
Speaker 2: win and gave back to the community $ 4, 853. Just so
3:46
Speaker 2: generous and nice of Sharks. You're probably watching the show saying,
3:50
Speaker 2: how do I get a little part of that or
3:52
Speaker 2: have a chance? Any NFL monthly or greater package? Gets
3:57
Speaker 2: you in, but obviously you guys are watching the MMA show.
4:00
Speaker 2: You want some MMA content. Bottom left, join the nation.
4:03
Speaker 2: Any monthly package or annual package. So in the core hundred,
4:07
Speaker 2: in the starter, or the ultimate. Any of these does
4:10
Speaker 2: get you eligible for the ship of games. And that
4:13
Speaker 2: link is posted every Tuesday in the NFL Discord. It
4:17
Speaker 2: is pinned in the NFL chat. 499 people are able
4:20
Speaker 2: to join. And then the top three get a winner
4:22
Speaker 2: to the golden medal. shipping contests and then that is
4:25
Speaker 2: when we play later on in the year you narrow
4:28
Speaker 2: down 50 to i believe it's 12 and then you
4:31
Speaker 2: play the top 12 outright in the first week of
4:33
Speaker 2: the playoffs to get an exponential payout i believe twelve
4:36
Speaker 2: thousand dollars for first place right now and it goes
4:40
Speaker 2: down a little bit after that but an awesome awesome
4:42
Speaker 2: gesture for our man sharks we put up a lot
4:44
Speaker 2: of money ourselves saberson helped with some cash and prizes
4:48
Speaker 2: again any monthly or greater membership We'd love to have you.
4:52
Speaker 2: Discord included, SaberSim included. We also do have single sport packages, though.
4:56
Speaker 2: If you're just looking for MMA, again, every single week
4:59
Speaker 2: pretty much. $ 29 for the month. Only $ 20 more gets
5:04
Speaker 2: you SaberSim as well. So we'd love to have you.
5:07
Speaker 2: Any package you join, I highly recommend getting in the Discord.
5:10
Speaker 2: As always, forgot to mention, but we do have the
5:12
Speaker 2: five days for $ 19. If you have not given us
5:15
Speaker 2: a try and you want to try us out, a
5:17
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5:21
Speaker 2: pga nascar mma of course and nba will be coming
5:25
Speaker 2: up on next tuesday which is very crazy to think
5:30
Speaker 2: um let's see uh watching you guys at harris and
5:35
Speaker 2: cherokee got lucky vacations paid for helping them helping my
5:38
Speaker 2: big hoping to pay for my dk buy-ins with mma
5:41
Speaker 2: this week that's awesome stuff brian's love to see it
5:44
Speaker 2: enjoy yourself for sure and yeah let's uh Let's try
5:48
Speaker 2: and help Brian come up with a strategy to pay
5:50
Speaker 2: for his weekend. Last week it went well to an extent,
5:54
Speaker 2: talking a little bit Big Marley pre-show, but the stand
5:57
Speaker 2: of wanting to play at least one of those big dogs,
6:00
Speaker 2: two of the three came through. The first two, Ribeiro
6:03
Speaker 2: and Franco or whoever it was, Alan Fry, I forget
6:06
Speaker 2: which one, Fry I think it was, came through and
6:09
Speaker 2: had scores that he wanted, but I was just too
6:11
Speaker 2: heavy on the mid-tier, or not the mid-tier, the main event.
6:15
Speaker 2: And you actually, even though Allen scored fine, there were
6:17
Speaker 2: so many big scores with Prado. And those two were,
6:21
Speaker 2: I mean, Leon Chabazi and Leon Shitstain. Nico Price puts
6:25
Speaker 2: up a big one, like huge, huge scores where you
6:28
Speaker 2: actually didn't need the main event. A unique lineup for
6:32
Speaker 2: a solo 100K. So shout out to whoever that was.
6:35
Speaker 1: I think he used, it was a $ 46, 000 lineup. Isn't
6:37
Speaker 1: that crazy?
6:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never done that either, but if there was
6:43
Speaker 2: a card, like he was really, really high on all
6:45
Speaker 2: three of those underdogs and those ones we talked about.
6:48
Speaker 2: It was the perfect card of like if they win,
6:50
Speaker 2: they have as much upside as anyone on the slate.
6:54
Speaker 2: When you win, how much do you win? Not something
6:56
Speaker 2: that I would have done. I believe if you look
6:58
Speaker 2: at like the contest sims or you look at post sims,
7:01
Speaker 2: I don't think that lineup probably graded out really well,
7:03
Speaker 2: but I can guarantee you he does not give one
7:06
Speaker 2: fuck with the post contest sims and says take my $ 100, 000.
7:10
Speaker 2: And try and go buy something with it. So congrats
7:12
Speaker 2: to that guy. Crazy lineup for sure. Not a week
7:17
Speaker 2: this week where I would be leaving $ 4, 000 on the table.
7:19
Speaker 2: But let's see if we can make a case to
7:21
Speaker 2: leave $ 400, $ 500 or something with some of these underdogs.
7:25
Speaker 2: And we will kick it off. We're going bottom to
7:27
Speaker 2: top from the stone. This is not going to be
7:30
Speaker 2: the actual bout order. I believe Perez Nelson is like
7:33
Speaker 2: number three. Again, it doesn't matter when it's all said
7:38
Speaker 2: and done. in terms of which fights we talk about
7:40
Speaker 2: first and last, as long as it's three rounds or
7:43
Speaker 2: five rounds. And the main event's the only five-round fight.
7:46
Speaker 2: So we're going based on the stone, and we are
7:48
Speaker 2: going with the first fight of the night. Christian Perez,
7:50
Speaker 2: minus 340. Taking at Kyle Nelson, plus 276. Minus 600
7:55
Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Tied for the second most
7:57
Speaker 2: on the card. Perez, minus 225 inside the distance. Nelson,
8:01
Speaker 2: plus 325. Perez in round one, plus 165. I mean,
8:06
Speaker 2: I think we just opened it up with an absolute banger.
8:09
Speaker 2: It's a banger because of Christian Perez. He looks like
8:12
Speaker 2: an all gas, no brakes kind of guy. Kyle Nelson,
8:15
Speaker 2: in my opinion, relatively boring. But this fight screams very
8:19
Speaker 2: similar to two of his last three fights against Terrence
8:22
Speaker 2: McKinney and Steve Garcia. Guys that are going to come forward,
8:26
Speaker 2: push a pace, make him fight. If Nelson wins, I
8:29
Speaker 2: think he probably knocks out Perez or Perez just gases.
8:32
Speaker 2: He uses his veteran savviness. could survive early and win late.
8:37
Speaker 2: Whatever the case is, if he wins at 7K, I
8:39
Speaker 2: think he scores. And Perez, I think, will be relatively chalky.
8:43
Speaker 2: So for those reasons in game theory, I'm definitely going
8:46
Speaker 2: to play some Nelson at 7K. Gun to my head
8:49
Speaker 2: and how I think this fight goes, I think Perez
8:51
Speaker 2: splits him, puts it on him, and knocks him out
8:53
Speaker 2: in the first round. And you also would want that
8:56
Speaker 2: at 9,200. So this is a fight I would love
8:58
Speaker 2: to be overweight on both sides to start it off.
9:01
Speaker 2: Perez is the pick. Nelson's the game theory play for me.
9:04
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's pretty tough to go too heavy on Nelson,
9:08
Speaker 2: in my opinion, just like eye test wise. What do
9:10
Speaker 2: you think?
9:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually, like 10 minutes before the show started,
9:15
Speaker 1: I moved it from four stars to, no, yeah, from
9:20
Speaker 1: four stars on Perez to five stars on Perez with
9:24
Speaker 1: one on Nelson. I thought I was going to have
9:26
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of Nelson thinking he's live for
9:29
Speaker 1: either a knockout or maybe he can gas out Perez.
9:32
Speaker 1: finish him late he is the more experienced guy but
9:35
Speaker 1: i just don't think nelson's in it anymore he looks
9:38
Speaker 1: so bad and like the short time he was in
9:40
Speaker 1: there against um what's his nuts that just kills everybody
9:44
Speaker 1: super early um god i can't think of names right
9:49
Speaker 1: now but um you're saying steve garce mckinney terrence 24
9:54
Speaker 1: second yeah yeah he looks so horrible just going in
9:57
Speaker 1: there What was he expecting in that fight? You think
10:00
Speaker 1: it was going to be easy early? I don't know
10:02
Speaker 1: what he was expecting. I think this is similar where
10:05
Speaker 1: Perez is going to be hot early. He's going to
10:07
Speaker 1: be aggressive. He's going to be dangerous on the feet.
10:09
Speaker 1: I like him to be the better striker. Either guy
10:12
Speaker 1: could mix in takedowns, but I think Nelson should be
10:14
Speaker 1: mixing in takedowns if he wants to slow down Perez.
10:17
Speaker 1: I just changed it to a five star on Perez
10:19
Speaker 1: because I think Nelson probably gives up if things aren't
10:22
Speaker 1: going his way. And I think things aren't going to
10:24
Speaker 1: be going his way early. I like Perez to get
10:26
Speaker 1: a probably a first round knockout could even be a
10:29
Speaker 1: submission if it hits the ground. But Perez is definitely
10:32
Speaker 1: the one that I'm more impressed by the two. So
10:35
Speaker 1: I changed it to Perez or pass for me.
10:40
Speaker 2: So if I tell you right now, Nelson wins, which
10:43
Speaker 2: let me get out my odds converter. You're always better
10:45
Speaker 2: than this with me, but right now he has plus
10:48
Speaker 2: two 76 plus two 76, 26.6% chance to win. Hey,
10:54
Speaker 2: we've seen a couple of these come through lately. The
10:56
Speaker 2: Buccaneers over the Cowboys last week, Alan Fry, Branson Ribeiro.
11:01
Speaker 2: Like what, what do you think Nelson scoring the range
11:03
Speaker 2: of outcomes? Is there ranges where he scores like 75?
11:07
Speaker 2: Can the fight really be that bad?
11:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he could win with like 60s. It
11:12
Speaker 1: would probably be him getting his ass kicked early and
11:15
Speaker 1: then just coming back and winning on points or something
11:17
Speaker 1: in the late second and then third round. But yeah,
11:22
Speaker 1: Nelson just doesn't have the style to really score well
11:26
Speaker 1: minute to minute. So I think he would need Perez
11:29
Speaker 1: to gas out and just get a lot of points
11:31
Speaker 1: from a finishing bonus at one time.
11:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just feel like because of Perez's style, if
11:37
Speaker 2: he does gas out, I just would trust any MMA
11:39
Speaker 2: fighter to put it on him. Like eventually at the
11:42
Speaker 2: finish or Perez quit. Maybe that's not the case. I
11:45
Speaker 2: still want a good amount of Nelson. I mean, he's
11:47
Speaker 2: plus 276 money line. He's plus 325 inside the distance.
11:51
Speaker 2: It shows most of his win equity is by finish,
11:54
Speaker 2: which you would take at 7K and leverage off of Perez.
11:57
Speaker 2: So I have a little more interest in Nelson than you,
11:59
Speaker 2: but we both are on Perez to get the finish.
12:03
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the first of four mid-tier fights.
12:05
Speaker 2: And again, this is the only mid-tier fight not expected
12:08
Speaker 2: to finish. And I do think it's going to be
12:10
Speaker 2: relatively low owned. Cody Trevonick minus 131. So young you
12:16
Speaker 2: plus 112 plus 105 for this fight to finish. We
12:20
Speaker 2: got Cody plus 185 inside the distance. You plus 400
12:25
Speaker 2: inside the distance. Cody round one plus 450. I'm looking
12:29
Speaker 2: at this as a clash of styles. Cody, the striker,
12:32
Speaker 2: you the wrestler. Again, I don't think you use a
12:34
Speaker 2: bad striker by any means, but I do think it
12:36
Speaker 2: pretty heavily favors Cody, which will force you to wrestle.
12:40
Speaker 2: And I see one guy that's 800 cheaper that wants
12:43
Speaker 2: to wrestle on a card where I think dogs are live,
12:47
Speaker 2: but I don't love, love dogs. And yeah, the mid
12:50
Speaker 2: tier is strong. 8,500, 95 might not be enough. I
12:53
Speaker 2: would take it. But for all those reasons, it points
12:56
Speaker 2: me to you being my preferred play. But Cody is
13:00
Speaker 2: going to be really low owned. I shouldn't say really
13:02
Speaker 2: low on maybe like 17% relative to the range. He's
13:05
Speaker 2: going to be low on and he's plus 185 inside
13:08
Speaker 2: the distance, which isn't bad. So we'll have some Cody
13:11
Speaker 2: prefer you. This is a pivot fight for me though.
13:14
Speaker 2: And chalk your lineups. Can you make a case for it?
13:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're, you're playing Cody for his finishing ability.
13:24
Speaker 1: He is the better striker. He's live for a knockout
13:26
Speaker 1: or he could just win the fight with a striking
13:28
Speaker 1: based but that wouldn't score as well. I also think
13:32
Speaker 1: he's live for a submission, but it is you that
13:35
Speaker 1: should be the one going out there looking to wrestle,
13:37
Speaker 1: looking to wrestle early and often, and that would be
13:40
Speaker 1: his path to victory. And if he is going to win,
13:42
Speaker 1: I would expect you to score around 10X at least,
13:46
Speaker 1: if not 90-plus points. So I would rather have you
13:51
Speaker 1: of the two just because I trust him to go
13:54
Speaker 1: out there and try to wrestle in this matchup. But
13:57
Speaker 1: I do think that Cody's going.
13:58
Speaker 2: To go overlooked.
13:59
Speaker 1: He could finish you in any round. So I think
14:02
Speaker 1: you're playing him for his ownership and his finishing upside.
14:06
Speaker 1: And then you're playing you for his wrestling and because
14:08
Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of dogs to like on
14:11
Speaker 1: this card.
14:14
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card,
14:16
Speaker 2: Melissa Crodin taking on Chelsea Chandler. Crodin minus 325, Chandler
14:20
Speaker 2: plus 265. This fight's plus 100 to finish. Crodon plus
14:25
Speaker 2: 175 inside the distance. Chandler plus 400. What do you
14:29
Speaker 2: think in this one?
14:33
Speaker 1: Man, I'm not, I'm not really loving this one. I
14:36
Speaker 1: do think that Crodon is the better striker. She's going
14:39
Speaker 1: to be the pressure fighter. I also think she is
14:44
Speaker 1: more dangerous, more durable, has better cardio. So the longer
14:47
Speaker 1: she can get this fight going, I think the more
14:49
Speaker 1: she can pick it up and maybe even score well
14:52
Speaker 1: in a in like a late finish, but early, I
14:56
Speaker 1: think Chandler's just going to be the bigger fighter. I
15:00
Speaker 1: think she will be looking to wrestle literally. I think
15:02
Speaker 1: Chandler's going to be live for a first round submission.
15:05
Speaker 1: I think Chandler's live to win the first, second round
15:08
Speaker 1: with wrestling and maybe score.
15:10
Speaker 2: Okay.
15:10
Speaker 1: As a cheap underdog. So I just don't really have
15:13
Speaker 1: that much of a preference in this one. I was
15:14
Speaker 1: picking Croton to get the win, but the $ 8, 900 salary
15:19
Speaker 1: is kind of what's scaring me away from her. I
15:20
Speaker 1: would rather go to other big favorites. instead of her.
15:24
Speaker 1: So I put the four stars on the Chandler side
15:26
Speaker 1: of this one, just because if I am having to
15:28
Speaker 1: pay down super low, I think she is live to
15:30
Speaker 1: win this fight on the ground. And if she were
15:32
Speaker 1: to get a first round submission at $ 7, 300, she'll be,
15:35
Speaker 1: she'll be looking really pretty at, uh, the third fight
15:38
Speaker 1: on the card.
15:39
Speaker 2: Maybe. Dang. I, I did not plan on playing much Chandler.
15:43
Speaker 2: I definitely was on the Croton side. I'm a little worried.
15:46
Speaker 2: I mean, live movement, as you guys know, is really
15:48
Speaker 2: big for me. Croton open minus two 20. Um, A
15:52
Speaker 2: little later, a day later, was down to minus 200.
15:55
Speaker 2: And ever since then, it's just taken money. Minus 285,
15:58
Speaker 2: as you can see, she was on Tuesday. Now as
16:00
Speaker 2: of Thursday, she's minus 325. Cronin's taken a good bit
16:05
Speaker 2: of cash. And then you look at her UFC win.
16:08
Speaker 2: She scored 123 in her UFC debut in a third-round
16:12
Speaker 2: finish and 91 in a decision win. So I think
16:15
Speaker 2: she has the upside. Even in a decision, I think
16:18
Speaker 2: she's the better striker. I think she does better in
16:20
Speaker 2: the clinch. I think if she does get on top
16:23
Speaker 2: on the mat, I think she can do a lot
16:25
Speaker 2: of damage. I think she has outs at 8,900 and
16:28
Speaker 2: is going to be low owned. So I'm on the
16:30
Speaker 2: line movement side. I'm on Crodon. But you might have
16:34
Speaker 2: talked me into a little Chandler. Like when she wins,
16:37
Speaker 2: I guess she probably will score okay. But, man, the
16:42
Speaker 2: money keeps going against her. Like how does she win?
16:44
Speaker 2: Do you think she gets on top and uses– her
16:46
Speaker 2: heavy frame. Yeah.
16:48
Speaker 1: I would say she went on the ground.
16:50
Speaker 2: Yeah.
16:50
Speaker 1: Uh, whether it be two rounds or a submission, but yeah,
16:53
Speaker 1: I'm not really in love with her either. So I
16:54
Speaker 1: think you, you convinced me to change it from, uh,
16:58
Speaker 1: four stars on her to three and three on this one.
17:00
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm, I'm on the Croton side more. So I
17:03
Speaker 2: can't hate a Chandler dog play at 7,300, but I
17:06
Speaker 2: do prefer others myself. Like I prefer you or excuse me.
17:10
Speaker 2: I prefer Nelson. Uh, you prefer Chandler, right?
17:14
Speaker 1: Uh, yeah, we're Nelson.
17:15
Speaker 2: Definitely. Yeah. Yeah, okay. All right, let's get to a
17:18
Speaker 2: mid-tier fight, the closest price fight on the card. And
17:21
Speaker 2: a very interesting one. As you can see, the cheaper
17:24
Speaker 2: fighter in Steven Koslow, now the favorite at minus 162.
17:28
Speaker 2: Taking on Chad Enheliger, plus 138. Minus 190 for this
17:32
Speaker 2: fight to finish. Koslow, plus 120 inside the distance. Enheliger,
17:36
Speaker 2: plus 265. Koslow, round one, plus 350. I mean, man,
17:41
Speaker 2: this fight is so good when it comes to DFS.
17:44
Speaker 2: Just a couple things. I'll let you break it down,
17:46
Speaker 2: but line movement-wise, was minus 170. Let's say this. Opened
17:51
Speaker 2: minus 150 to finish. Was minus 170 on Tuesday. Now
17:55
Speaker 2: minus 190, which you love to see. Kozloff opened minus 110.
18:00
Speaker 2: 30 minutes later, roughly, was plus 110. Then it was
18:03
Speaker 2: minus 110 a day later. Then it was plus 100.
18:06
Speaker 2: Line's gone back and forth. But then this week, the
18:08
Speaker 2: past couple days, minus 115 today. It was on Monday,
18:12
Speaker 2: now minus 162, Kozlo. So he's taking a lot of money,
18:16
Speaker 2: is 200 cheaper, plus 120 inside the distance. And when
18:20
Speaker 2: you break it down, it only gets better. Kozlo, grappler,
18:23
Speaker 2: plus 150 by submission. And Eliger, striker, plus 450 by KO.
18:29
Speaker 2: It's everything that you want. Closely lined, doesn't break the bank.
18:32
Speaker 2: Striker versus grappler. Under keeps taking money. I mean, take
18:36
Speaker 2: it away. How do you not play this fight?
18:40
Speaker 1: Man, just because of the unknowns, I was definitely thinking
18:42
Speaker 1: about having it as a five star and I might
18:45
Speaker 1: play it as a five star. I haven't built too
18:47
Speaker 1: many lineups yet. But what's his nuts? Cosmo hasn't fought
18:52
Speaker 1: in four years and Heliger hasn't fought in two years.
18:55
Speaker 1: So I just have no idea what these guys are
18:57
Speaker 1: going to look like, especially when they come back from
18:59
Speaker 1: four years. That's like they look like a different person typically.
19:03
Speaker 1: And we've only seen Cosmo one time. I feel like
19:06
Speaker 1: he gassed out in that fight with his grappling-heavy style.
19:10
Speaker 1: He got a bunch of takedowns against a good fighter,
19:12
Speaker 1: but he also got reversed a ton of times as well.
19:15
Speaker 1: I think he's alive to win this fight on the ground,
19:17
Speaker 1: whether it be minutes, and he can still score well.
19:20
Speaker 1: I also think he could get a first-round submission. Angelica
19:23
Speaker 1: does have pretty poor takedown defense, so I expect it
19:26
Speaker 1: to be rough for Angelica early. But I just don't
19:29
Speaker 1: know how long that can last for Coslow, and I
19:32
Speaker 1: do like Angelica to be the better striker.
19:34
Speaker 2: Of the two.
19:35
Speaker 1: I mean, he's got these little T-Rex arms, but he's
19:37
Speaker 1: fast and he can crack. I think he could knock
19:40
Speaker 1: out Kozlo in any round here. So the more the
19:44
Speaker 1: line goes to Kozlo, the heavier his ownership will get,
19:47
Speaker 1: the more Angelica's will sink. So I might. like Angelica
19:51
Speaker 1: more for that reason. But just style for style, Kozlo
19:55
Speaker 1: does make a lot more sense on DraftKings because if
19:58
Speaker 1: he wins, it's going to come on the ground and
20:00
Speaker 1: it probably is going to score well no matter what.
20:03
Speaker 2: Do you think most of Chad's wins probably score well? Like,
20:09
Speaker 2: do you think most of the time, like, he just
20:10
Speaker 2: dominates on the feet and gets them out of there?
20:12
Speaker 1: No, I don't know. I don't know about Chad. I
20:15
Speaker 1: think his would be like he gets beat early in
20:17
Speaker 1: the fight, and then he finishes them late, and maybe
20:21
Speaker 1: it's too late at that point. I don't know.
20:23
Speaker 2: Gotcha. Man, I'm just trying to– like, Kozlo's for sure
20:28
Speaker 2: just a really good play at AK. Like, he's taking
20:30
Speaker 2: all the money, plus 120 inside the distance, the favorite.
20:33
Speaker 2: But he very well could be, like, 38% owned, and
20:37
Speaker 2: Chad could be, like, 21%. And then it's like, man,
20:40
Speaker 2: the game theory-wise, Chad opened plus 300 inside the distance,
20:43
Speaker 2: now plus 265, under one and a half, plus 153 now. Yeah,
20:49
Speaker 2: there is pass, I guess, for sure, like a Chad
20:51
Speaker 2: third-round knockout if this fight does go to decision. But
20:55
Speaker 2: just because of, yeah, like the clash of styles, the
20:58
Speaker 2: uncertainty on Coslow, I'm going to tell myself most Chad
21:01
Speaker 2: wins will score well, and I think he's going to
21:03
Speaker 2: be enough leverage game theory-wise where, Similar to the first fight.
21:08
Speaker 2: I prefer Perez. I prefer Coslow. In chalky or lineups,
21:11
Speaker 2: when I have to get different, though, Chad is a
21:13
Speaker 2: way that I'm going to get different, and I feel
21:15
Speaker 2: pretty good about it because I think he does have
21:17
Speaker 2: a good amount of upside as the better striker. All right,
21:21
Speaker 2: let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. Again,
21:23
Speaker 2: appreciate everyone hanging out. Like button and subscribe button helps
21:27
Speaker 2: us out a ton. Hope everyone out there is having
21:29
Speaker 2: a great week. My least favorite fight on the card,
21:32
Speaker 2: Katelyn Sermonera. Katelyn Chukagian, Sermonara. That's what it is. Katelyn Sermonara,
21:40
Speaker 2: minus 274. Mackenzie Stiller, plus 227, plus 235 for this
21:45
Speaker 2: fight to finish. The underdog in Stiller, plus 340 inside
21:49
Speaker 2: the distance. Sermonara, plus 550. I mean, a plus 550
21:53
Speaker 2: inside the distance for 9K on this card makes it
21:56
Speaker 2: the easiest X out, in my opinion. It only gets
21:59
Speaker 2: easier when you look at Stiller whose nickname is Mac Judo.
22:03
Speaker 2: She wants to get the fight to the mat. She's
22:05
Speaker 2: a grappler. But I will say like plus 340 inside
22:09
Speaker 2: the distance. I always look at bet online. Most other books,
22:13
Speaker 2: plus 400, plus 475. That number is in a tier
22:17
Speaker 2: of its own. So I don't think that line's probably correct.
22:20
Speaker 2: I think it's probably more like plus 400. It's dogger
22:23
Speaker 2: pass for me for sure though. The dog at 7,200
22:25
Speaker 2: wants it on the mat, is more likely to finish.
22:28
Speaker 2: I mean, she saves 1,800. Stiller a pass, but I
22:31
Speaker 2: really don't like Stiller much. Like Chukagian, Sermonara, the UFC
22:35
Speaker 2: vetting her. She should style on Stiller. Keep it on
22:39
Speaker 2: the feet, out-pointer at range, win a unanimous easy decision,
22:42
Speaker 2: and this fight completely busts. That's my prediction, but we
22:45
Speaker 2: need some dogs, so I'll have some Stiller. What about you?
22:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely not going to play Chukagian at 9K.
22:55
Speaker 1: There's just no way I can get to her. Even
22:56
Speaker 1: if I'm playing like 50-plus lineups, I'm not going to
22:58
Speaker 1: get to her. Um, but yes, I do like her
23:01
Speaker 1: to win the fight just by keeping it on the feet,
23:04
Speaker 1: being the better striker, winning that range. She's getting a
23:06
Speaker 1: newcomer first time ever in the UFC and Chukagian's had
23:09
Speaker 1: 17 UFC fights and she's really fought the best of
23:12
Speaker 1: the best. So, um, Stiller does need to get the
23:15
Speaker 1: fight to the ground. If she wins, she probably would
23:18
Speaker 1: score well, cause it's going to come on the ground,
23:20
Speaker 1: whether it be three minutes of control time or three
23:22
Speaker 1: rounds of control time or get a submission. Uh, Chukagian's
23:26
Speaker 1: coming back from having a baby. We haven't seen her
23:28
Speaker 1: in two years. She's 10 years older. So I put
23:31
Speaker 1: the four stars on the Stiller side just because it's
23:33
Speaker 1: dog or pass for me. But I didn't want to
23:36
Speaker 1: put five stars on the underdog because I'm not even
23:38
Speaker 1: picking her to win. I am picking Chukagian to win.
23:40
Speaker 1: This is just a fight. I'm not interested in playing.
23:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess it's kind of a tough spot for
23:46
Speaker 2: you because when people see five star versus one, they're like,
23:50
Speaker 2: but for me, it would be Stiller five star, Cermonera
23:54
Speaker 2: one star because I wouldn't have I probably would have
23:57
Speaker 2: no Sarmanara in, like, 150 teams, which is, like, anti
24:01
Speaker 2: of what I always go against. I just couldn't imagine. Like,
24:05
Speaker 2: what's the path? She's optimal. She chin checks her, I guess,
24:08
Speaker 2: like a random knockout. Yeah, I guess.
24:10
Speaker 1: And even then she might not make it.
24:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, Bryant's on the same page, too. Give
24:15
Speaker 2: me the dog in a women's fight that's plus 235
24:18
Speaker 2: to finish. Totally agree. We'll keep it rolling. To an
24:23
Speaker 2: absolute banger, two five-star fights for Big Marley. This is
24:27
Speaker 2: one of them. I say an absolute banger, but I'm
24:29
Speaker 2: talking about an absolute banger for DFS. I mean, this
24:34
Speaker 2: could be an absolute slop fest at heavyweight, but we
24:37
Speaker 2: got Joel Fagler. We're going to say Joel Fagler. I
24:43
Speaker 2: think it's Fogler. Thank you. Joel Fogler, minus 135 pounds.
24:49
Speaker 2: Taking on Javed Mohib at plus 116. Minus one, or
24:54
Speaker 2: excuse me, minus 325 for this fight to finish. And
24:58
Speaker 2: this is where it's like I'm tripped out. The exact
25:01
Speaker 2: same inside the distance prop at plus 140. They have
25:05
Speaker 2: the exact same decision prop at plus 500. Exact same
25:08
Speaker 2: TKO prop at plus 435. Same sub prop at plus 275.
25:14
Speaker 2: Same round one, same round two. I don't know if
25:16
Speaker 2: fight odds is glitching. Or if you're seeing the same thing,
25:19
Speaker 2: but these dudes, like the props are exactly identical on
25:23
Speaker 2: pretty much every method of victory and everything in this fight.
25:27
Speaker 2: So beside the point, you got to get a coin flip,
25:30
Speaker 2: or it's not a coin flip anymore. It was a
25:32
Speaker 2: coin flip fight. And now Joel is the favorite at
25:36
Speaker 2: minus 135. But whoever wins has a chance to score
25:41
Speaker 2: pretty good. They're most likely going to score well with
25:43
Speaker 2: under one and a half sitting at plus 103. if
25:46
Speaker 2: this fight gets extended, it's really going to be gross.
25:48
Speaker 2: But as pivots from the main events, like the, and
25:52
Speaker 2: Heliger fight this fight, we're going to get to, um, uh,
25:57
Speaker 2: where's the, the last mid tier. Oh, I guess you,
26:00
Speaker 2: which is fine too, but mainly in Heliger and, uh,
26:03
Speaker 2: and this fight right here, this is why I'm not
26:05
Speaker 2: making a rule to have a must in the main event.
26:08
Speaker 2: I think either of these two winners can outscore the
26:11
Speaker 2: main events and that'll be a little different. So, I
26:14
Speaker 2: don't know who wins. I think it's a complete slop fest.
26:16
Speaker 2: I don't have much hope for either of these two
26:20
Speaker 2: for longevity in the UFC, but they're throwing two guys
26:23
Speaker 2: at each other that have not lost, that are making
26:26
Speaker 2: their UFC debut, and I just hope someone gets a
26:29
Speaker 2: takedown and pounds the other one's face in. What do
26:31
Speaker 2: you think? Do you have any strong lean on any side?
26:34
Speaker 2: Not at all, no.
26:36
Speaker 1: The line is going to Fogler's side. I think he's
26:39
Speaker 1: more well-rounded. He's 10 years younger. He should be the
26:43
Speaker 1: better striker in this one. He could also get a
26:46
Speaker 1: submission on bottom. If he were to get a takedown
26:48
Speaker 1: of his own, I don't know how much Javad would
26:50
Speaker 1: have to offer off of his back. But Javad just
26:53
Speaker 1: looks like the bigger, stronger, more powerful guy. He's on
26:57
Speaker 1: better supplements. Once he gets the fight to the ground,
27:00
Speaker 1: I think he has strong top control. And I think
27:03
Speaker 1: he's live for ground and pound or submission. Or he
27:07
Speaker 1: could just rack up top control minutes as well in
27:09
Speaker 1: a boring fight. But he's the one I would expect
27:12
Speaker 1: to slow down where Fogler is just really, I think
27:16
Speaker 1: he's going to be faster, better cardio, better striker. Just
27:20
Speaker 1: don't get taken down and don't get laid on is
27:23
Speaker 1: really the game plan for Fogler. And if he can
27:25
Speaker 1: avoid that, I like him. But I just think that
27:29
Speaker 1: Javad's more proven. I liked what I saw more from him.
27:32
Speaker 1: So I picked him to get the win. but this
27:36
Speaker 1: was on, I did this last Saturday, like a week
27:39
Speaker 1: before our last fights or a week before they even start.
27:42
Speaker 1: So I freaking, I don't feel good about either side.
27:47
Speaker 1: And the fact that the line is moving to Fogler side,
27:50
Speaker 1: maybe people know more than I do, but that's also
27:53
Speaker 1: going to raise the ownership. So I think Javad and,
27:56
Speaker 1: and Heliger lineups together make a lot of sense that
28:00
Speaker 1: lower ownership on both sides.
28:02
Speaker 2: Yeah. To be honest, I think, because I'm a big
28:05
Speaker 2: line movement person for sure. But when in the mid
28:08
Speaker 2: tier and closely line fights, like I feel like most
28:11
Speaker 2: of the time, the small ownership move creates too large
28:15
Speaker 2: of an, or yeah, the small money line move creates
28:18
Speaker 2: too large of an ownership move. And then in the
28:21
Speaker 2: game theory wise, it almost makes the other one, like
28:24
Speaker 2: more appealing. Like Crodon from minus 225 to minus 325
28:28
Speaker 2: over the week and all that, that doesn't move her
28:31
Speaker 2: that much because she's 8,900 still competing with the great
28:34
Speaker 2: range where the inside, the distance and upside matters more.
28:37
Speaker 2: So I value it more. Whereas already a good fight
28:40
Speaker 2: to target minus 325 to finish pretty much a coin flip.
28:44
Speaker 2: But now the $ 400 cheaper fighter is minus 136. It's
28:48
Speaker 2: like when it was plus 110, maybe they're, or maybe
28:52
Speaker 2: Joel is 31% and Javid is 28%. Now that it's
28:56
Speaker 2: minus 136 plus 116, now it could be like 38%, 24%.
29:01
Speaker 2: That gap became too wide, in my opinion, for a
29:05
Speaker 2: 20-cent move. So I think Javid's going to be my
29:08
Speaker 2: preferred play just because the fight's gross. I'm spending $ 400 more,
29:13
Speaker 2: but I'm getting a big ownership discount in chalkier lineups. Joel,
29:17
Speaker 2: I'll play when I'm already getting a little difference, leaving
29:20
Speaker 2: money on the table. I do think Coslow and Joel
29:23
Speaker 2: are a lot similar plays. Javid and Chad are similar plays.
29:27
Speaker 2: If you are playing Coslow and Joel, and then you're
29:31
Speaker 2: playing the main event, and then you're playing Perez, you're
29:33
Speaker 2: just going down the same path as a lot of people.
29:35
Speaker 2: So by no means would I max one coslo and
29:39
Speaker 2: joel but i do kind of like going javid with
29:41
Speaker 2: coslo or joel with um uh and heliger a little
29:47
Speaker 2: more just to balance the chalkiness a little bit all
29:50
Speaker 2: right we'll keep rolling next fight on the card the
29:53
Speaker 2: biggest favorites nick zolante minus 655 julian leblanc plus 485
30:00
Speaker 2: This fight is minus 600 to finish, tied for the
30:03
Speaker 2: second most likely on the card. Minus 315 inside the
30:06
Speaker 2: distance for Jelante, plus 500 for LeBlanc. Jelante by sub,
30:11
Speaker 2: minus 150. Jelante in round one, plus 100. I mean,
30:15
Speaker 2: if Robert Valentin's taking you down and submitting you like nothing,
30:19
Speaker 2: like he did to Julian LeBlanc, I think Jelante's probably
30:22
Speaker 2: going to do the same and make it pretty easy.
30:24
Speaker 2: With that being said, he's 9,500 bucks. He could score 100. 105,
30:29
Speaker 2: 110 points and not be optimal. I also think there's
30:32
Speaker 2: enough upside like a Mandel, Nalo, like the Christian Perez,
30:37
Speaker 2: any team, any Jelante team, I can go to one
30:40
Speaker 2: of them and just leave it in a vacuum as
30:42
Speaker 2: a way to get difference. He also just might get
30:44
Speaker 2: one takedown submission in a minute and eight seconds. And
30:48
Speaker 2: that's like the worst case you want at 9,500. So
30:51
Speaker 2: I'm a little worried at this price tag and I
30:53
Speaker 2: don't love dumpster diving for dogs. I'll have some probably,
30:58
Speaker 2: slightly underweight if I had to guess right now. But
31:01
Speaker 2: if I had a little overweight too, I'd be fine
31:03
Speaker 2: with it. 9,500 on this tag on this card is
31:07
Speaker 2: a decent size price tag though. What do you think
31:10
Speaker 2: Jelante needs to be optimal and how much do you
31:12
Speaker 2: think you'll have?
31:14
Speaker 1: I mean, on this card, I'm not really sure. I
31:16
Speaker 1: think he could be optimal with a hundred, but I,
31:18
Speaker 1: I just don't know. There's also so many guys that
31:21
Speaker 1: could score well where he probably could need 110 or 115. So,
31:26
Speaker 1: For me, it's just going to be Jelanti or pass. LeBlanc,
31:29
Speaker 1: I mean, he might knock him out. I think he
31:31
Speaker 1: would be the better striker, like point-fighting striker, if we
31:35
Speaker 1: were to turn knockouts off and not let Jelanti wrestle.
31:38
Speaker 1: But Jelanti's probably going to just go out there and
31:41
Speaker 1: dominate him on the ground. And I also think Jelanti's
31:44
Speaker 1: the more powerful striker of the two. He's more likely
31:46
Speaker 1: to get a quick knockout. So for me, I'm just
31:49
Speaker 1: going to X out LeBlanc, get Jelanti in lineups that
31:53
Speaker 1: I can afford him in, but I'm also fine in
31:55
Speaker 1: any lineup I can afford Jelanti and using a couple
31:58
Speaker 1: other guys on this card as well.
32:00
Speaker 2: For sure. I don't know why this reminded me of this,
32:03
Speaker 2: but what are your thoughts on the UFC cutting for
32:06
Speaker 2: Reed 16 and oh, and seven and oh, and the
32:08
Speaker 2: UFC basher up. Wow.
32:10
Speaker 1: I didn't even know that.
32:11
Speaker 2: Yeah.
32:11
Speaker 1: It's interesting.
32:13
Speaker 2: Yesterday.
32:14
Speaker 1: Maybe I was requesting too much money or something.
32:16
Speaker 2: But I think it's, it could be, I think it's
32:19
Speaker 2: more so just like the UFC. Ricardo kind of talked
32:22
Speaker 2: about it in the chat. Like, it's entertainment over like
32:25
Speaker 2: the value of like just winning nowadays. Not like, I
32:28
Speaker 2: think six of his seven UFC wins were by decision.
32:31
Speaker 2: He wasn't even in the most boring fights, but when
32:35
Speaker 2: you just start getting that label and like all your
32:37
Speaker 2: fights just go to decision, you really have.
32:40
Speaker 1: Still, we got fucking Caitlin Chukagian versus McKenzie Stiller. We
32:44
Speaker 1: got fucking Coslo and Heliger. I just think there's so
32:48
Speaker 1: much trash on the UFC lineup where we want guys.
32:51
Speaker 1: like basherat i mean we can get rid of this
32:53
Speaker 1: entire freaking card everybody on this card pretty much can
32:57
Speaker 1: go except for a couple people but basherat has like
33:02
Speaker 1: you know i.
33:02
Speaker 2: Mean it comes back to money potential you're you're when
33:06
Speaker 2: you when you say it like that then you're right
33:08
Speaker 2: at the end of the day he can't get a
33:09
Speaker 2: 10 and 10 uh who knows if he's trying to
33:12
Speaker 2: negotiate more but for what they have to pay he
33:15
Speaker 2: always wins um i mean he never gets like a
33:18
Speaker 2: fight that people are talking about forever. So it probably
33:21
Speaker 2: has something to do with both of it. Boring in
33:24
Speaker 2: their eyes, doesn't get finishes, doesn't pay the bills with entertainment,
33:28
Speaker 2: and then, yeah, good enough where you can't just pay
33:31
Speaker 2: them 25 and 25 or whatever it is. So they're like, yeah,
33:34
Speaker 2: screw it. We'll save money throwing together random fights like this.
33:37
Speaker 2: So I agree.
33:38
Speaker 1: UFC's falling off, man.
33:39
Speaker 2: UFC's falling off. They got to get some new people
33:41
Speaker 2: in office. Yeah, I mean, I don't know how much
33:44
Speaker 2: Dana really cares about it all nowadays.
33:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see how much longer Dana's even there, to
33:48
Speaker 1: be honest.
33:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Hunter and the guys that are calling all
33:53
Speaker 2: the shots now. That's not even a secret. Sean O'Malley's
33:56
Speaker 2: pretty much saying it, that his negotiations are with Hunter
34:00
Speaker 2: and them. So, hey, a lot of money still to
34:03
Speaker 2: be made as long as they put out 13-plus fights
34:06
Speaker 2: every week. That's good with me. We'll keep it rolling, too.
34:10
Speaker 2: The next fight on the card, the second of two
34:12
Speaker 2: heavyweight fights. Janata Denise, minus 235. Tanner Bozer, plus 197.
34:19
Speaker 2: This fight is minus 200 to finish. Denise, minus 135
34:23
Speaker 2: inside the distance. Bozer, plus 500. Denise in round one,
34:28
Speaker 2: plus 175. Denise is taking some money. Plus 200, he
34:32
Speaker 2: opened in round one, now plus 175. Was minus 120
34:36
Speaker 2: inside the distance, now minus 200. 135, the fight open
34:40
Speaker 2: minus 175, now minus 200. Almost all that is on
34:44
Speaker 2: the Denise side, though. I'm going to let you break
34:47
Speaker 2: it down first. I'm curious, like you have two stars
34:49
Speaker 2: on Bozer. I'm curious to hear your path on, like
34:53
Speaker 2: how does he score more than 85 in this fight?
34:55
Speaker 2: What is his path to the optimal? And then, yeah, Denise,
34:59
Speaker 2: two strikers. Denise is the former kickboxer. It feels pretty
35:02
Speaker 2: obvious he can knock him out at any time, but
35:04
Speaker 2: he will need a knockout in the first two rounds
35:07
Speaker 2: more than likely. with the second round not even being guaranteed.
35:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say Boeser's path to victory, path to optimal,
35:15
Speaker 1: for sure would be the knockout. Just because these are
35:18
Speaker 1: big boys, he could get a knockout of his own.
35:20
Speaker 1: I like him to be the higher volume striker of
35:23
Speaker 1: the two, so if he doesn't get knocked out himself,
35:26
Speaker 1: I do think he lands more volume than Denise in
35:28
Speaker 1: a three-round matchup if it were to go that far.
35:32
Speaker 1: And at $ 7, 400, maybe that could be enough. He's landed
35:35
Speaker 1: pretty decent volume in past fights, so I think he
35:37
Speaker 1: could get there in a three-round decision. But I'm picking
35:40
Speaker 1: Denise to knock him out. I just think Denise is
35:43
Speaker 1: the better overall striker. He's more dangerous. He's more durable.
35:47
Speaker 1: And he's just the better technical kickboxer of the two.
35:51
Speaker 1: Bosa's kind of awkward, a little bit wild, and his
35:55
Speaker 1: aggressiveness could definitely make him pay just by fighting a
35:58
Speaker 1: guy like Denise. I don't know who's even more likely
36:01
Speaker 1: to mix in takedowns in this one, but I'm picking
36:03
Speaker 1: Denise to get an early knockout. So I will be
36:06
Speaker 1: playing them. But if he doesn't get an early knockout,
36:08
Speaker 1: like if Denise wins a decision, you should have X'd
36:11
Speaker 1: him out with 150 lines. He's not going to be there.
36:14
Speaker 1: So I'm wary on how much Denise I want to play.
36:18
Speaker 1: But I think that ownership will be a little bit
36:21
Speaker 1: low on him too for those reasons. So I'm cool
36:23
Speaker 1: getting to Denise and just hoping the knockout comes to fruition.
36:28
Speaker 2: Totally agree with you. Denise is somewhere I'll probably be
36:31
Speaker 2: around the field because the props are good and all that.
36:33
Speaker 2: But the second this fight gets out of the second round,
36:36
Speaker 2: it's really hard for me to see Denise being optimal.
36:39
Speaker 2: I think Bozer would be the more likely one to
36:41
Speaker 2: wrestle if anyone did. I'm not expecting anyone to, though. Bozer,
36:45
Speaker 2: probably higher volume. But Denise, a former kickboxer, a scary one.
36:49
Speaker 2: The biggest problem with him is when people try and
36:52
Speaker 2: take him down. He's not going to have to worry
36:54
Speaker 2: about that in this one. So I do think if
36:56
Speaker 2: he gets in flow state, it could be pretty fun
36:58
Speaker 2: to watch. And bad news for Bozer, but I think
37:01
Speaker 2: Bozer is a solid fighter. Someone we don't really see often,
37:04
Speaker 2: but he's steady, I guess is the better word. But yeah,
37:08
Speaker 2: he might be staring up at the stars when it's
37:11
Speaker 2: all said and done. Let's see, last four wins at
37:15
Speaker 2: UFC came by KO. Low score, it was low 80s.
37:18
Speaker 2: He's live. Yeah, I mean, again, he has to knock
37:21
Speaker 2: out the former kickboxer. Plus 500 inside the distance. 20%
37:24
Speaker 2: chance for Bozer to get the knockout. Good stuff right there.
37:29
Speaker 2: Let's get to an absolute banger. The second of two
37:32
Speaker 2: five-star fights. Mandel, Nalo, minus 285. Nate Landwehr, plus 235.
37:37
Speaker 2: Minus 1,000 for this fight to finish. Nalo, minus 225
37:40
Speaker 2: inside the distance. Landwehr, plus 240. Nalo in round one,
37:46
Speaker 2: minus 110. Open to plus 140. I mean, I think
37:51
Speaker 2: it's pretty clear. Nalo's a great play. 9,100 will be
37:54
Speaker 2: really chalky. If Landwehr wins, he's got to score well.
37:57
Speaker 2: A lot of the field's dead with Nalo. Yeah, I mean,
38:00
Speaker 2: clear as day. Nalo more likely wins, probably optimal. Loses.
38:04
Speaker 1: Uh-oh. What happened to title? I don't even know if
38:11
Speaker 1: it's me or if it's him. There he is. There
38:16
Speaker 1: he is.
38:17
Speaker 2: Sorry, I literally hit, like, the backspace. Oh, God. I
38:21
Speaker 2: was like, big brother's going to be tweaking. Yeah, you
38:24
Speaker 2: guys get the point. Nalo, when he wins, probably optimal.
38:27
Speaker 2: If he loses, Landwehr optimal. A lot of the field
38:29
Speaker 2: dead with Nalo. Sorry about that.
38:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Nalo's probably the best play on the
38:37
Speaker 1: entire slate. Landwehr's a madman. If he doesn't get knocked
38:43
Speaker 1: out early in this fight and he can tire Nalo out,
38:46
Speaker 1: The longer this fight goes, the more it's going to
38:48
Speaker 1: play into Landwire's favor. And he's probably going to be
38:50
Speaker 1: a crazy fight where he's going to put up a
38:52
Speaker 1: big score if he wins. And it could be a
38:54
Speaker 1: knockout in any round from Landwire. But I think from him,
38:58
Speaker 1: it would be more likely in the second half of
39:00
Speaker 1: the fight where Nalo, I think all of Nalo's wins
39:03
Speaker 1: are in the first half of a scheduled fight. He's
39:06
Speaker 1: just a dangerous striker. He's going to be a lot faster.
39:08
Speaker 1: He's going to be the one pressuring a lot more dangerous,
39:12
Speaker 1: a lot more striking tools. And I think he is
39:14
Speaker 1: going to knock Landwire out. Landoir has taken a lot
39:17
Speaker 1: of damage lately. I think it's a first round knockout
39:19
Speaker 1: from Nalo. So I want to be super high on him.
39:22
Speaker 1: But if it's not a first round knockout from Nalo,
39:24
Speaker 1: I just feel like Lanoir is probably going to win
39:26
Speaker 1: the fight and be on the optimal himself. So it's
39:29
Speaker 1: probably an all in fight for me.
39:33
Speaker 2: I like it. That means, like I said, when I'm
39:36
Speaker 2: watching these fights a little busy this Saturday, so we'll
39:39
Speaker 2: see how many I'm able to watch live. But live betting,
39:42
Speaker 2: I think, is still one of the biggest edges out there.
39:45
Speaker 2: In all sports, at least, I mean, I've been watching fights.
39:49
Speaker 2: I know Big Marley has pretty much every single week
39:51
Speaker 2: for many of years. So you start to notice trends
39:54
Speaker 2: and patterns and all of that when people are fading,
39:57
Speaker 2: when they start finding something, like Johnny Walker a couple
40:00
Speaker 2: weeks ago with the leg kicks, et cetera, et cetera. So, yeah,
40:03
Speaker 2: Big Marley feels pretty confident outside of round one that
40:06
Speaker 2: Nalo can slow down, Landwehr take over. So I will
40:09
Speaker 2: be looking at a live betting spot in this fight
40:12
Speaker 2: at what probably would be big plus money at the time.
40:15
Speaker 2: All right, four fights left. Right next to the mid-tier fight,
40:19
Speaker 2: we have Charles Jourdain's brother, Luis Jourdain, taking on Timmy Kawamba.
40:24
Speaker 2: Minus 176 is Jourdain. Plus 149 is Kawamba. Minus 115
40:30
Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Jourdain plus 150 inside the distance.
40:33
Speaker 2: Kawamba plus 415. Just looking at these odds on Tuesday.
40:39
Speaker 2: Minus 215 was Jourdain. Now minus 179. That is quite
40:43
Speaker 2: a bit of line movement there. On the Timmy Kawamba side,
40:46
Speaker 2: I mean, I can't blame the people. I think it's
40:49
Speaker 2: probably the sharp move. I think this fight goes the distance,
40:51
Speaker 2: and I think it is relatively competitive. If that's the case,
40:54
Speaker 2: I think this fight more than likely busts for DFS.
40:58
Speaker 2: But I will mix in Jordan, even though lines going
41:01
Speaker 2: against him. I mean, he's plus 150 inside the distance
41:04
Speaker 2: versus plus 415 in the ceiling outcomes. I do think
41:07
Speaker 2: Jordan is live for a submission, as he showed in
41:10
Speaker 2: Contender Series, but also a flashy striker that could Pour
41:14
Speaker 2: it on him. If he sees Kawamba hurt, he can
41:17
Speaker 2: punches and bunches and maybe get a knockdown or two.
41:20
Speaker 2: Don't love it, though, especially with the line movement going
41:22
Speaker 2: against him. Kawamba feels more like a floor play. Not
41:25
Speaker 2: sure 80 is going to be enough at 7,600. Kind
41:28
Speaker 2: of just an underweight fight for me for both. But
41:31
Speaker 2: Jordan is solid pivot in a pretty loaded range if
41:36
Speaker 2: the fight were to finish. I'm really curious to hear
41:38
Speaker 2: your take on this one. I'm open ears.
41:41
Speaker 1: I'm actually not sure on this one. Well, really, I'm
41:43
Speaker 1: not sure. I don't know if I even want to
41:45
Speaker 1: play this one. I put it as a three-star mainly
41:49
Speaker 1: because of that minus 115 inside the distance. If there's
41:52
Speaker 1: a finish in this fight at these salaries, we're probably
41:54
Speaker 1: going to want it. But I'm more impressed with Jordan.
41:59
Speaker 1: I thought he did look a lot like his brother.
42:01
Speaker 1: He's a flashy striker. I think he's more dangerous of
42:03
Speaker 1: the two. I think he's the better submission guy of
42:07
Speaker 1: the two if it were to hit the ground. Squamba
42:09
Speaker 1: is a fine point fighter. He's got a little bit
42:11
Speaker 1: of power as well, but I just think we're going
42:14
Speaker 1: to need a finish from either side of this fight
42:17
Speaker 1: to score well. So that's why I put the three-star,
42:20
Speaker 1: but I think I'm going to change it to a
42:21
Speaker 1: two-star because when I'm hand-building, I'm really going to not
42:24
Speaker 1: try to click on either one of these guys. There's
42:26
Speaker 1: other fights I would rather go to. So it's definitely
42:29
Speaker 1: a two-star for hand-building, but if I were making 150
42:32
Speaker 1: and just kind of putting in projections, letting it do
42:35
Speaker 1: its thing, then I would be fine if I ended
42:38
Speaker 1: up with a decent amount of either one of them,
42:40
Speaker 1: and I would be okay with an MME three-star. But
42:43
Speaker 1: I'm changing it right now because I'm more of a
42:45
Speaker 1: hand builder.
42:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense. Let me refresh. I put in
42:49
Speaker 2: the Perez and Nelson FanDuel prices as well.
42:52
Speaker 1: I just now put it in, but yeah.
42:54
Speaker 2: Okay. Yeah, I knew it wouldn't refresh right there. I
42:56
Speaker 2: just put this in. The thing with why Jordan has
43:01
Speaker 2: to be low-owned, though, again, a lot– javid and eliger
43:05
Speaker 2: like those mid-tier fights for cheaper will all be higher
43:08
Speaker 2: owned and then if you just go a little higher
43:10
Speaker 2: price than jordane you have kyle dawkus i think will
43:13
Speaker 2: be higher owned you have uh janata denise 8800 that'll
43:17
Speaker 2: be higher owned so he just fits right in that
43:19
Speaker 2: range that i think has to be kind of forgotten
43:23
Speaker 2: um my preferred play i still don't love it what
43:27
Speaker 2: do you think about timmy cuamba most of his wins
43:29
Speaker 2: score like 70 in a decision and just not enough
43:31
Speaker 2: at 7600.
43:33
Speaker 1: See, I would prefer Jordan just because I think he's
43:36
Speaker 1: more likely to get the finish because he's more flashy.
43:39
Speaker 1: He has more ways for the angles to come from.
43:42
Speaker 1: It could be a kick or a punch with him.
43:45
Speaker 1: Or even a submission. So I would just rather be
43:47
Speaker 1: clicking on Jordan. I really don't care for Kawamba too much.
43:50
Speaker 1: I think you're just kind of playing against, I guess,
43:53
Speaker 1: the experience from Jordan and on the experience from Kawamba.
43:57
Speaker 1: But at 7,400, even if he wins a decision. 76. 7,600,
44:03
Speaker 1: that's even worse. Even if he wins a decision, I
44:08
Speaker 1: don't know that he's going to 10X that price tag.
44:11
Speaker 1: So if I'm hand-building 20 lineups, I doubt I get
44:17
Speaker 1: any Kuamba.
44:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you didn't like him at 7,400, you're not
44:20
Speaker 2: going to like him at 7,600. All right, three fights left.
44:25
Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one, real life. Pretty excited for DFS.
44:29
Speaker 2: Kyle Dawkus, minus 200. Marc-Andre Barriot. Plus 169, minus 215
44:34
Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Dawkus minus 120 inside the distance.
44:38
Speaker 2: Barrio plus 355. I'm a big Kyle Dawkus guy. The
44:42
Speaker 2: dude will go out there and fight for your dollar.
44:44
Speaker 2: He's well-rounded, known to be a grappler and is better
44:48
Speaker 2: on the map, but he can strike too. Knocked out
44:50
Speaker 2: Michelle Pereira. And 8,700, he's expected to finish at minus 120.
44:56
Speaker 2: Might get some takedowns. Could get a finish in any
44:59
Speaker 2: single round, and you can leave money with him. relatively
45:02
Speaker 2: easy and with all that being said i don't think
45:04
Speaker 2: he comes in too highly owned in terms of ownership
45:07
Speaker 2: either so i'm on the darkest side i think he
45:10
Speaker 2: wins this fight barrio oh man i mean i can't
45:14
Speaker 2: not play him because he has good volume i mean
45:18
Speaker 2: he just impressed me against michael olejacek showing that he
45:21
Speaker 2: still does have some durability some grit Some striking and
45:26
Speaker 2: pretty high volume in him. I'm just so confident, I guess,
45:29
Speaker 2: in Dawkus, probably more confident than I should at minus 200,
45:31
Speaker 2: where I'm going to limit my burial exposure. But Dawkus
45:37
Speaker 2: can be a little chinny, so maybe he could knock
45:39
Speaker 2: him out, find the chin. Dawkus for me, though, and
45:42
Speaker 2: I plan to be overweight on him at 8,700. What's
45:45
Speaker 2: your pick? How do you see it going? What are
45:46
Speaker 2: you doing for DFS?
45:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, pick is Dawkus. I think he's the more dangerous fighter,
45:52
Speaker 1: whether it be more knockout power. or just a much
45:55
Speaker 1: better grappler of the two. I think he's got a
45:57
Speaker 1: big edge on the ground in this fight. I think
46:00
Speaker 1: his ground game is what deserves him to be a
46:02
Speaker 1: big favorite. If it were to be a striking match,
46:05
Speaker 1: I think it's closer to a pick-em fight where Barry
46:08
Speaker 1: Holt is a pretty good volume striker. I like him
46:11
Speaker 1: more than Kuamba for $ 100 less because I think bigger guys,
46:14
Speaker 1: he's got a better chance at the knockout. I also
46:17
Speaker 1: think he's going to be higher volume on the feet
46:20
Speaker 1: than Kuamba if it were to be a three-round striking match. Um,
46:24
Speaker 1: but yeah, it could be a 60 second loss from burial,
46:28
Speaker 1: whether it be on the feet or the ground. I
46:29
Speaker 1: just think doc, this is way better, um, way more dangerous,
46:33
Speaker 1: but I would just worry about it staying on the
46:35
Speaker 1: feet too long. I think that's what puts burial in
46:39
Speaker 1: play to win just in general. But if he wins
46:43
Speaker 1: at $ 7, 500, I think he's a decent play. So I'm
46:46
Speaker 1: okay with both sides of this one. This is closer
46:48
Speaker 1: to a four star than it is a two star
46:51
Speaker 1: where I changed that last one to a two star.
46:53
Speaker 1: I think this is a better version of that fight.
46:56
Speaker 2: Totally agree. But I do think ownership, not that it's
47:00
Speaker 2: going to be too different. I do think though, Barry
47:02
Speaker 2: O'Tire only Kwan, but Dawkus is higher on than Jordan
47:06
Speaker 2: when it is all said and done. So I think
47:07
Speaker 2: the field will see it similar. All right. Two fights left. Again,
47:12
Speaker 2: I appreciate everyone hanging out. We'd love to have you
47:14
Speaker 2: at ship and nation.com. Again, in the beginning, I showed
47:17
Speaker 2: it off ship and nation.com. Join the nation. You can
47:19
Speaker 2: find all of our different packages there. Every single one
47:22
Speaker 2: includes the Discord. Many of them include Sabresim as well.
47:27
Speaker 2: Definitely do get in the Discord if you do join.
47:29
Speaker 2: And the five days for $ 19 with Discord with Sabresim.
47:33
Speaker 2: Now is a great time to give it a try.
47:34
Speaker 2: You get NFL tonight on Thursday. You get college football tonight, tomorrow, Saturday.
47:41
Speaker 2: NBA starting next Tuesday, so you'd miss out on the
47:43
Speaker 2: five-day there. But you get MLB playoffs. You get MMA.
47:47
Speaker 2: You get NASCAR. Of course, you get NFL Monday nights.
47:50
Speaker 2: Sunday night football, main slate, all of that good stuff.
47:53
Speaker 2: So I think it's a good day to take advantage
47:55
Speaker 2: of the five days for $ 19 trial. What's up, YSN?
47:58
Speaker 2: Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Always
48:00
Speaker 2: good to see you in chat. Co-main events. Not my
48:04
Speaker 2: favorite for DFS. Not my favorite for real life, but
48:07
Speaker 2: two solid girls going at it. Erin Blanchfield, minus 320.
48:10
Speaker 2: Jasmine Jazz-DeVitius, plus 265. Minus 335 for this fight to
48:15
Speaker 2: go the distance, which is the greatest on the card.
48:19
Speaker 2: Let me just double check. Yep, the most likely to
48:21
Speaker 2: go the distance on the card. Aaron plus 265 inside
48:24
Speaker 2: the distance. Jasmine plus 1,200. I mean, I never fully
48:28
Speaker 2: fade Aaron Blanchfield almost because she has 120 plus upside
48:32
Speaker 2: if she really puts on the wrestling shoes. Not sure
48:35
Speaker 2: if this is the matchup she does it with because
48:38
Speaker 2: Jasmine is also known as a wrestler. Maybe Aaron can
48:40
Speaker 2: just strike for 15 minutes. I don't expect that to happen, though.
48:44
Speaker 2: I guess my question to you is, can Jasmine get
48:47
Speaker 2: up if Aaron... does take her down because I do
48:50
Speaker 2: think we need her to chain takedowns at 9,300. We'll
48:53
Speaker 2: be really low on when I am playing Stephen Koslow
48:59
Speaker 2: and Joel and Joaquin Buckley and Christian Perez, like all
49:03
Speaker 2: the really chalky ones. Maybe that's where Aaron Blanchfield comes
49:06
Speaker 2: into play in a vacuum. It's relatively tough though. But yeah,
49:10
Speaker 2: my question, how much can Jasmine get up if Aaron
49:13
Speaker 2: takes her down is the main thing.
49:14
Speaker 1: I'm, wondering. I wouldn't think very much, and I don't
49:18
Speaker 1: even know how much she would want to get up.
49:20
Speaker 1: I feel like she could maybe think she can change
49:22
Speaker 1: the situation on the ground quicker than she could win
49:25
Speaker 1: on the feet. But I think JJ has to win
49:28
Speaker 1: this fight on the ground, but it would really be
49:30
Speaker 1: her getting the takedowns and her in top control. So
49:33
Speaker 1: if JJ were to win the fight, she's going to
49:36
Speaker 1: score well. At 6,900, she would be on the optimal lineup.
49:39
Speaker 1: It would be lots of takedowns, lots of top control time.
49:41
Speaker 1: Maybe a submission, I guess, if JJ were to win
49:45
Speaker 1: the fight. So I got her as a three-star for
49:47
Speaker 1: that reason. 6,900, she could kind of break the slate
49:50
Speaker 1: with her style. But Blanchfield has the same style when
49:54
Speaker 1: she wants, and she's probably even better on the ground.
49:57
Speaker 1: She's more dangerous on the ground. She is a really
49:58
Speaker 1: good wrestler when she wants to be. So she could
50:02
Speaker 1: beat JJ at her own game and score well. And
50:05
Speaker 1: I think for ownership reasons, she does make a lot
50:07
Speaker 1: of sense. So I have her three stars for that reason.
50:11
Speaker 1: But if you're worried about anything from JJ, it's got
50:15
Speaker 1: to be the ground game. So why even flirt with
50:17
Speaker 1: that when you're the better striker? I think Blanchfield goes
50:20
Speaker 1: out there, wins 30, 27 on the feet and score
50:24
Speaker 1: 75 points and doesn't get there. So I prefer not
50:27
Speaker 1: to use this lineup. I didn't realize how sexist I
50:29
Speaker 1: was with all my two-star fights being women only, but
50:34
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm targeting too much from the women
50:36
Speaker 1: on this card. Maybe dogs just because they're cheap, but yeah,
50:40
Speaker 1: I just like other fights more.
50:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, on average though, like women's fights finish
50:45
Speaker 2: less than male fights. I would be even almost more sexist.
50:49
Speaker 2: I guess this fight, maybe I would have a one star,
50:52
Speaker 2: two at most. This fight, I would probably have a
50:55
Speaker 2: one star, but all of it would be on the
50:56
Speaker 2: stiller side. The Crow to Chandler fight though, I'd probably
51:00
Speaker 2: have a three star. So we see it pretty similar,
51:02
Speaker 2: but Yeah, it's a car that I'm going to be
51:05
Speaker 2: hoping that probably all six or six men are on
51:08
Speaker 2: the optimal when it's all said and done. Unless it
51:11
Speaker 2: is Crowden, because I won't be playing too much myself.
51:16
Speaker 2: All right, Bryant is on the Canadian. The problem with
51:21
Speaker 2: this fight and being on the home cooking judges, like
51:23
Speaker 2: most of Aaron's wins, I think, will just be so
51:25
Speaker 2: dominant where you can't even pretend that whether you're home
51:30
Speaker 2: or not, like Blanchfield dominates on the feet. or just
51:33
Speaker 2: on the mat. With that being said, though, what was it? Sosa, Lupe, Godinez,
51:37
Speaker 2: not too long ago, completely robbed Sosa there. So they're
51:42
Speaker 2: still blind, crooked, crooked, corrupt judges when it's all said
51:45
Speaker 2: and done. All right. It's the main events. Good fight
51:49
Speaker 2: for sure. DFS and real life. Mike Millat, 8,400. Mike
51:53
Speaker 2: is 8,400, but he's minus 128. Joaquin Buckley, plus 110.
51:55
Speaker 2: Minus 180 for this fight to finish. The small dog
52:02
Speaker 2: in Buckley, plus 170 inside the distance. Malat, plus 185.
52:07
Speaker 2: This line completely, well, minus 300 at open for Buckley.
52:13
Speaker 2: Two minutes or 20 minutes later, he was plus 131.
52:15
Speaker 2: And then slowly but surely, Moneas came in on the
52:20
Speaker 2: Malat side. I heard Big Marley. Not sure you knew
52:23
Speaker 2: that opening line. Didn't last long, but minus 300. Not
52:26
Speaker 2: sure whoever made that opener what they were seeing. you
52:30
Speaker 2: have four stars in a lot, two stars Buckley. Why, uh,
52:32
Speaker 2: why do you think a lot wins this fight?
52:35
Speaker 1: I just think he's the better overall fighter. Um, if
52:37
Speaker 1: we're turning knockouts off, we're taking takedowns out of the game.
52:42
Speaker 1: I think it's a close fight, just point fighting, striking
52:45
Speaker 1: for striking. I would probably favor him a lot in
52:48
Speaker 1: that type of fight though. Uh, Buckley is more athletic,
52:51
Speaker 1: more explosive, more powerful. So Buckley is definitely live for
52:55
Speaker 1: a knockout in any round. He's also maybe more durable, uh,
52:59
Speaker 1: then Malat as well. So I think in any round
53:02
Speaker 1: Buckley's live for that knockout, even at 7,800, I wouldn't
53:05
Speaker 1: really trust Buckley minutes a minute in a, in a
53:08
Speaker 1: decision five round fight. I wouldn't think that he's a
53:11
Speaker 1: lock for the optimal at that price. So I don't
53:14
Speaker 1: love him in that regard. I think he's just best
53:17
Speaker 1: played for an underground, an underdog who is likely to
53:21
Speaker 1: get a knockout based on his style, a ton of power,
53:25
Speaker 1: super explosive. So I think he is live for that,
53:27
Speaker 1: but Malat's a good striker too. He could knock out Buckley.
53:30
Speaker 1: He could win a decision if it were a striking-based fight.
53:35
Speaker 1: But the biggest advantage in this entire fight, I think,
53:37
Speaker 1: is Malat's grappling submission game. Not really a wrestling game
53:42
Speaker 1: like Usman and Brady, how they put the wrestling shoes
53:46
Speaker 1: on Buckley. I don't really see it being similar to that.
53:49
Speaker 1: But I think Malat's alive to submit Buckley in any
53:53
Speaker 1: round on the ground. So I'd prefer to pay $ 8, 400
53:56
Speaker 1: for Malat who I like him in the early portion
54:00
Speaker 1: of this fight. And I also think this is a
54:03
Speaker 1: fight that you can kind of, I wouldn't say fade
54:06
Speaker 1: at all, but not be all in and hope that Malat,
54:10
Speaker 1: or really either one of these guys, wins in like
54:12
Speaker 1: the fifth round or goes to a decision. And then
54:15
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a lock for the optimal lineup.
54:17
Speaker 1: I think Malat would be getting more takedowns and top
54:20
Speaker 1: control time throughout the fight. But I think he would
54:23
Speaker 1: be the one to slow down quicker than Buckley would So,
54:27
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I'm not sure what this
54:28
Speaker 1: would look like late, but I don't have it going late.
54:31
Speaker 1: Give me a lot to get an early finish.
54:33
Speaker 2: If it goes late, which, I mean, over three and
54:36
Speaker 2: a half is slightly favored, that's why I'm not going
54:39
Speaker 2: to be all in on this fight because I could
54:41
Speaker 2: see it, if it does go, the later it goes,
54:43
Speaker 2: neither really wrestling, both standing at range, trading kicks, trading punches,
54:48
Speaker 2: and there's enough mid-tier fights. Like I said, the Joel
54:50
Speaker 2: and Javid fight, 8,379, and then an Eliger, Koslow, 8,208K.
54:57
Speaker 2: Those fights can easily outscore this in a vacuum, and
54:59
Speaker 2: if they do, it's more likely to be less dupes
55:02
Speaker 2: because just naturally with this five-round fight, Malat Buckley will
55:06
Speaker 2: be heavily owned. I'm on the Buckley side. Not the
55:09
Speaker 2: strongest take, but I think he is more likely to wrestle.
55:13
Speaker 2: And again, looking at his last two fights against Usman
55:16
Speaker 2: Sean Brady, maybe that is completely wrong, and I don't
55:19
Speaker 2: feel too much confidence in that. But I just think
55:22
Speaker 2: he has more one-shot power. I think Malat probably is
55:24
Speaker 2: the minute winner. on the feet with his jab at range,
55:28
Speaker 2: but I think Buckley will throw the bigger power shots.
55:32
Speaker 2: And if he connects, I mean, he's, he's a scary
55:34
Speaker 2: ass dude. There's no doubt about that. It mainly comes
55:36
Speaker 2: back to the $ 600 in savings though. Any Malat team
55:40
Speaker 2: can go to Buckley. You're not giving up any upside.
55:43
Speaker 2: He is more likely to win inside the distance by
55:45
Speaker 2: a little bit. So yeah, 7,800 him. If you plug
55:49
Speaker 2: him in with Coslow with Fagler and, or yeah, Flagler,
55:54
Speaker 2: whatever his name is. And yeah, cancel me. I don't,
55:58
Speaker 2: I don't care. It's not what I'm trying to say,
55:59
Speaker 2: but you leave 700. You're still playing three really good
56:03
Speaker 2: mid-tier fighters. Two of them are the favorites, but playing
56:06
Speaker 2: Buckley and just going from a lot to Buckley and
56:09
Speaker 2: leaving at least 600 is a way to get different
56:11
Speaker 2: when playing those plays. That is something I will be
56:13
Speaker 2: looking to do on this card, but not the hottest
56:16
Speaker 2: take or not, excuse me, not the strongest take on
56:19
Speaker 2: this fight. I think probably when it's all said and
56:21
Speaker 2: done though, I'll be underweight. to the main event. And
56:23
Speaker 2: that'll be my stand, hoping those other mid-tier fights outscore them.
56:28
Speaker 2: That's all 13 fights. Fingers crossed we keep all 13.
56:31
Speaker 2: And after seeing Bomfy miss weight by seven and a
56:34
Speaker 2: half pounds last week and the fights still go, it
56:36
Speaker 2: makes me feel pretty confident now most of the time
56:39
Speaker 2: that we will get or keep all 12, 13, whatever
56:42
Speaker 2: fights that we have on the card. Shout out to
56:44
Speaker 2: Prado for being a dog. You do need that opponent
56:47
Speaker 2: to accept the fight. And obviously any medical issues and stuff,
56:51
Speaker 2: you can't, uh, you can't ignore like you're the fight's
56:55
Speaker 2: going to be canceled. If someone passes out or whatever
56:58
Speaker 2: it is, but yeah, shout out to Prado. And I
57:00
Speaker 2: hope more people take fights. Even if the other opponent
57:03
Speaker 2: misses weight that bad, they got to move that 25%
57:05
Speaker 2: weight miss though, up to like 50% when it's seven
57:09
Speaker 2: and a half pounds. Like that is absolutely crazy. We
57:12
Speaker 2: appreciate you. Brian's always love talking fights with you. Big Marley.
57:15
Speaker 2: Any final thoughts before we get on out of here? Yeah.
57:18
Speaker 1: I think weight misses should be 10% per pound.
57:23
Speaker 2: I like it. Yeah.
57:24
Speaker 1: That would be my rule for sure. But, uh, no,
57:27
Speaker 1: hopefully it's a good DFS card. I'm going to need
57:28
Speaker 1: it to be, if I'm going to watch all of
57:30
Speaker 1: these fights, but good luck to you title. Good luck
57:32
Speaker 1: to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
57:34
Speaker 2: Yeah. I guess the only thing before we get out
57:36
Speaker 2: of here, 10 pounds per pound, like someone misses by seven,
57:39
Speaker 2: that pounds like bomb theme. He's just not going to fight.
57:42
Speaker 2: He's just not going to fight. He's like, why, what's
57:44
Speaker 2: the point there?
57:45
Speaker 1: So, but then he doesn't get paid and he did
57:47
Speaker 1: everything for no reason.
57:49
Speaker 2: So I didn't even, didn't even do anything. Like, and
57:53
Speaker 2: I mean the fight, like right when I saw a
57:55
Speaker 2: seven and a half pounds, usually it's sometimes I'm like,
57:57
Speaker 2: all right, I give that guy the advantage. Usually not
57:59
Speaker 2: seven and a half. What I told myself was this
58:02
Speaker 2: dude didn't even grind in the, in camp. This dude
58:05
Speaker 2: didn't even try to make weight like this lazy dude.
58:08
Speaker 2: He didn't grind. He didn't even care. And it, I mean,
58:10
Speaker 2: it looks like it when it's like three and a
58:12
Speaker 2: half pounds. And it's like, man, like I don't want
58:15
Speaker 2: to kill myself for that last three and a half.
58:18
Speaker 2: I'm going to, save myself like and then he can
58:20
Speaker 2: get an advantage that way like that's the stuff i
58:22
Speaker 2: look into with seven and a half you're not even
58:24
Speaker 2: trying like what did you do during camp and it
58:27
Speaker 2: sure sure looks like it that way so yeah it's
58:29
Speaker 2: a it's a tricky.
58:30
Speaker 1: 70 of his purse he might still take that 30
58:33
Speaker 1: what else is he gonna do man he i'm sure
58:35
Speaker 1: he doesn't have a full-time job he doesn't he's not
58:37
Speaker 1: an exciting fighter people aren't following him on fucking social
58:40
Speaker 1: media he's not getting paid big time for that so
58:43
Speaker 1: uh he still might have taken if you're gonna be
58:45
Speaker 1: that lazy i'm sure you're lazy everywhere else and he
58:48
Speaker 1: would have just taken it so 10 percent per pound
58:51
Speaker 1: make the change ufc.
58:52
Speaker 2: All right from the man big marley himself that's gonna
58:55
Speaker 2: do it though thank you everyone for hanging out hit
58:58
Speaker 2: that like on the way out hit that subscribe you'll
59:00
Speaker 2: get notified every time we go live and head over
59:03
Speaker 2: to ship and nation.com. A lot of different packages and
59:06
Speaker 2: options for whatever suits you best. UFC is on a roll.
59:10
Speaker 2: So we'll be back next week. We are going to
59:12
Speaker 2: do it Wednesday though. But what did we say? Wednesday
59:16
Speaker 2: at five Eastern. Is that what we said? Big Marley?
59:18
Speaker 2: I can't remember. I can't remember what we texted. Yeah.
59:23
Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll figure it out. I'm probably available
59:26
Speaker 1: at five or eight 45.
59:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe we said it. It'll be on the show calendar.
59:31
Speaker 2: I'll let people know in the Discord as well. I
59:34
Speaker 2: can't remember when I texted Big Marley, but it will
59:36
Speaker 2: be Wednesday instead of Thursday. Have something going on. We'll
59:39
Speaker 2: be on a flight. So that's going to do it
59:41
Speaker 2: for us. Good luck, everybody, for Big Marley on Titletown.
59:44
Speaker 2: Good luck. Be safe. Peace.