Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - The Carrier Coup: How AST SpaceMobile Locked the US Market

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Anpanman - The Carrier Coup: How AST SpaceMobile Locked the US Market · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

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is the AST Space Mobile podcast. We just basically come your
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phone be seamless regardless of where you are.
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We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
0:18
satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we
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have is very, very, very large. Everyone thanks for joining.
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I don't normally do three spaces in a day, but man, what a fast
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moving they I'm, I'm in Vegas. I just got back from the spa.
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I had a massage and I'm completely relaxed and I
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couldn't even like fall asleep during that massage because I
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just kept thinking about all the implications of the news that
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hit today. But I did want to talk about
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something we learned later in the afternoon.
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And it's funny to see Tim Farr and his ilk try to contort even
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further and, and somehow make this a negative for AST space
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Mobile. I mean, it's just, it's mind
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blowing, right? But yeah, I think the street,
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Wall Street still they they haven't figured it out yet.
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And they eventually will over the next coming days, weeks,
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months. I think to any outside observer
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when they see this JV, they're like, oh, OK, I guess like this
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three companies are getting together and they're going to
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try to face against and try to negotiate something with the
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directed device satellite players, which there's only two
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right now, right? There's only two that are
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authorized for supplemental coverage from space that's AST
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Space Mobile and Starlink. So for someone from the outside
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looking in, they are, they view this, you know, this release and
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they're like, OK, I mean, it doesn't specify like what
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companies who's working with who, but a key, you know, a key
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indication of course, was the fact that AST put out a press
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release 2 minutes later, right after the JV announcement saying
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that they, they commended the, the framework that's been put
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forward and they're looking forward to working with these
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companies. I think the biggest tell and,
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and this is something that like the, you know, hedge funds,
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short sellers, you know, they're not following this stuff that
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closely. But one of the biggest tells, of
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course was a bell retweeting that that tweet and tagging
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T-Mobile amongst Verizon and AT&T.
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Like as an executive, you don't do that unless you're working
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with the with T-Mobile. And as I mentioned before in
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previous space to get this through regulatory view, they're
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not going to talk specifically about who they're working with
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or they're going to say it's, they're open to working with
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everybody. But in the end, it's, there's
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only one company that's providing 4G and 5G broadband
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connectivity to unmodified devices and that's AST Space
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Mobile. And you know that the people at
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the Fudsters try to like spin this as, as somehow like AST is
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trying to get in the limelight. And, and I think Tim Farrar was
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saying this JV was put together so they could negotiate directly
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with Starlink. No, absolutely not AT&T, Verizon
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and T-Mobile are threatened by Starlink.
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And this was put together as a defensive move in some regards,
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right? But but also these companies are
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going to pull their resources, pull spectrum together and
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they're going to, they already Verizon, ATT already leased it
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out to AST. But beyond that lease, if they
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can come to a mutual agreement, T-Mobile will contribute
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spectrum as well and become part of the group.
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And so I think it's important to really understand the carrier
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dynamics here, the M and OS. First of all, AT&T and Verizon,
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they don't like each other, all right?
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They're very competitive. They're kind of viewed as the
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premium careers. But they came together, they put
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their differences aside. They came together and saw the
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threat that Starlink was, but also saw the superior solution
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of AST. AT&T said, hey, you know what,
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Verizon, you can come join. And so 2, two of the three
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biggest competitors decide to join hands and and work together
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in support of AST. Fast forward to today, I think
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you can ask anybody in industry, AT&T and Verizon absolutely hate
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they they hate T-Mobile. The idea of of these two
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companies working together, T-Mobile, you can ask anybody
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who covers T&T like it's just unfathomable, right?
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But today T-Mobile is now in AJV with AT&T and Verizon.
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That's like I was talking to Cook about it.
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That's like the Iacola of Iran taking like a Jewish pride.
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It's insane. It's, it's like it doesn't make
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any sense, right? But they're doing it because
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they want to deliver a broad true broadband service to
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consumers. And they also want to put some
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competitive because they they know that Starlink mobile is, is
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trying to gun for them, is going to eat off their plate, right?
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Like the FCC has been and God bless them, like the FCC is
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trying to enable more competition.
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They're they're giving Starlink easy build out requirements.
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Yeah, you can light up the AWS 3 and H block spectrum by just
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deploying it over your satellites.
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You don't have to build towers. So chair car is is favoring
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Starlink as much as possible to go after the carriers.
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And so the carriers are like, OK, well, I mean T-Mobile, yes,
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as Mike Sievert, he made a mistake.
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He's where he worked with Starlink.
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He got fired, Deutsche Telekom CEO publicly said, we're wary of
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working with, with Starlink, you know, we'll see if anyone else
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can provide service in Europe. We will innate, we will work
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with them, which by the way, like I think in the next few
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weeks, you know, the head of Satco Satellite Connect Europe
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said specifically we are planning to add some M and OS in
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Europe in the coming weeks. So don't be surprised when
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Deutsche Telekom joins Satellite Connect in Europe, right?
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And so just imagine like the fact that T-Mobile is now moving
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over. I work with AT&T and Verizon in
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partnership with ASC Space Mobile.
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That means that Broch Telecom, Hodges, the the Hotchkin, I
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think his name is Hodges, the CEO, he's authorized that.
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And that means like George Telecom's thinking about working
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with AC too, right? Because they see the competitive
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issue that Sterling presents for all M and OS Elon Musk clearly
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stated we want to be an M&O clearly stated we're going to
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develop our own phones. Of course, like he said that in
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kind of casual conversations and when people pointedly ask him to
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repeat that, he's like, Oh no, no, we're going to work, you
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know, we're going to work in partnership with them.
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But we all know like where it's going.
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And so does Gwyn Shotwell and so does Dave Goldman, right?
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Gwyn Shotwell is the CEO of, of SpaceX and, and of course
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Starlink and Dave Goldman runs regulatory for, for Starlink and
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Spicex. So but yeah, I think the analogy
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there, the fact that AT&T and Verizon, this is so critical and
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important and, and a huge opportunity that they decided to
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welcome T-Mobile into the fold. It's, it's like mind blowing.
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And the market doesn't understand the implications of
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all this, right? It's like for institutions and
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hedge funds who aren't falling this closely, they, they see,
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they announced and they're like, OK, I don't know.
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But then as the stock continues to grind higher, they're going
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to take wait a second. I didn't really understand the
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implications of this. You're, you're telling me that
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Verizon, ATT and T-Mobile are now locked with AST space mobile
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and this, this JV is, is standing up some, you know,
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competitive framework that is going to respond to Starlink and
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eventually Amazon. Oh, this little company AST like
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it's, they have 100% of the market, Like what, what, what
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are the economics of that? If they share 5050 revenues
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with, with each of the M and OS, maybe it's underpriced at $83,
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maybe it's underpriced at 100 or 120130140A-150, whatever it is,
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right? If you have 100 and by the way,
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like if you have 100% of the most profitable market in the
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world and, and Starling knows this like you're, you bring up a
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consolation, it's really hard to justify the cost of a direct to
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device consolation if you don't have the critical core market of
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the US, right? So Starling direct to sell 32,
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is it going to be economic for them?
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I mean, this is on the cusp of their IPO, by the way, like on
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the roadshow there, people are going to be like, oh, so how's
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that T-Mobile partnership going and, and what, what, what are
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they going to say? And so I, I think it's really
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important to understand the T-Mobile, sorry, the, the
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Starlink response today. So Tim Foer astutely pointed out
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he was like, Oh yeah, this is like, this is great for
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Starling. It's bad for AST space mobile.
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And then of course, like he, he's like, you know, AST put out
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this press release just to try to get to be a pretend they're
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part of it, which by the way, like you don't put together a
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detailed press release that's gone through legal review and,
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and it's simultaneously put it out in the same time as this
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joint venture. And in my follow up conversation
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with management, yes, they knew this was coming.
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They're part of it and the telling thing for for these like
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Starlink stands and apologists and whoever else, right?
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Like these funsters, they're like, Oh well, this is good for
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Starlink. Well, I didn't see a press
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release from Starlink. 8 hours went by. 10 hours went by.
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I didn't see anything. I didn't see anything from
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global Star. I didn't see anything from Vice
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that I didn't see anything from equities or any of these like
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wannabe players Link. But then the telling part is
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then we had two SpaceX executives completely crash out
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on Twitter. And so I, I think you have to
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understand the mindset of these people, right?
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Like if you're an executive at SpaceX and you see this, this
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joint venture announcement and you're not part of it, you had
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no idea what was going on. Your, your initial reaction
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should be OK, I'm going to learn more about it.
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Well, but that's weird that AST also PR this too.
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So I, I don't feel good about it, but I'm going to learn more.
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I'm going to be civil about it and I'm going to welcome it
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because competitively, like, if I'm offering you a great
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solution, I should be like, OK, great competition.
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I want to compete too. But we didn't hear anything for
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them for 10 hours. And then and then they lose
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their shit on Twitter, which is so if an executive crashes out
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like that, it means like something bad has happened.
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Like these, these executives should be composed.
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They shouldn't go out in public. But Gwynn Shotwell crashed out
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on Twitter and then it was retweeted by the SpaceX account,
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the Starlink account. And I'll read what she said.
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She said, well, you know, we ELWEEELLLLLLI guess Starlink
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Mobile is doing something right. It's David and Goliath times 3
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all over again. I'm betting on David.
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So Goliath here. When she says times three, that
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means Goliath is AT&T, Ryzen and their old buddies T-Mobile.
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So what would drive ACEO to tweet this?
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It's like so unprofessional, right?
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Because again, like if this JV were to go out and it was
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positive for them, Sterling would be like a we welcome
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competition and we welcome the opportunity to potentially work
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at AT&T and Verizon in addition to our partner T-Mobile.
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No, they didn't. They didn't press release that
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they said she said it's US versus the three Goliaths.
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So my reading of this is that T-Mobile went to, well, first of
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all, Starlink, they, they, they learned about it today and
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they're like, what? And they, they call T-Mobile.
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T-mobile's like, Oh yeah, you know, when we go to exclusivity,
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you're done, you're out. And then Starling's like, what
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do you mean? Like we, we, we're working
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together and we were going to go take on AT&T and Verizon and
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team was like, no, we're not working anymore.
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We're going to go into the Chevy.
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We're planning to work with AST space Mobile and say lovey,
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sorry. And so that's why you had
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Genshot will come out and just absolutely lose it, right.
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If there was any possibility to come back together to join
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forces again to work, Genshot will will not put this tweet out
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there saying that she's going, you know, Starlink is the David
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versus the Goliaths of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.
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And let's let's like parse that statement for a bit, right?
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Like this is SpaceX going public at a $2 trillion valuation.
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They just got like 60 megahertz of AW3 spectrum at H block
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spectrum in the US. The FCC is doing all it can to
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support them. They even gave them like really
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low build out requirements like, oh, you can meet these
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requirements by, you know, use utilizing, you know, satellite
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coverage, which is unheard of. This is that I already talked
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about it earlier this morning, but that's a game changer,
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right? Like the fact that AST is now
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going to be a huge CapEx saving story for all these M and OS is,
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is like a whole nother discussion.
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But the fact that the, this, this whole situation, like the,
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the fact that Starlink is, is now saying like we are David and
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those three are Goliath. Those companies have market caps
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of like what, $300 billion? AST has a bar cap of 35 four, I
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don't know, $36 billion. SpaceX has a bar cap of $2
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trillion. What are you talking about?
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Like there's the fact like, I get it.
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The carriers are old school and, and, but they're critical.
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They're critical to providing service and, and they're
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differentiated. Like one thing that you can't do
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if you're going to truly compete, you can compete to a
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degree, but if you want to truly compete and offer real, true,
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you know, real pervasive cellular service, you need low
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band spectrum. And the carriers will not give
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that up. They will absolutely not give
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that up. Store like they are going to
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pull AT&T and Verizon the 850 megahertz spectrum and T-Mobile
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is going to throw more spectrum in there as well.
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Abel actually alluded to this and these are the Nuggets that
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people who follow ASD very closely.
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He alluded to this on the earnings call.
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He said we even in one of our countries which he was talking
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about the US, we will have access to 100 megahertz of
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spectrum. So right so that's like 50 from
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Legato and that's going to be 50 megahertz of low band spectrum.
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You can piece it all together at first net, AT&T, Verizon and now
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T-Mobile like and when he said that I was like well what market
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is he talking about? I guess it's the US, but then
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like, is Verizon, AT&T really going to give him that much
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spectrum like that must include T-Mobile.
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And and this is something like we've been talking about for
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years where it's like, eventually when T-Mobile finds
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out that they strategically compromise yourself, they're
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eventually going to come back or the OR it's going to be required
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that Verizon ATT let them enter the fold, right?
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And so that's what we're seeing today.
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And so going back to what I was saying before, if T-Mobile, if
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there was a way to work with T-Mobile, you know, for Starlink
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and in this JV, you know, the Fudsters are like, oh, this is
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good for Starlink. Well, where's this?
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Where's the press release for 10/10 hours?
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There's no press release. And then you've got the
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executive saying we're going to take these guys on like that.
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That's telling that Starlink is absolutely not part of this.
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They were told to hit the road like head for the mountains.
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Like David Goleman, who has regulatory, he's like a pretty
15:46
nasty fellow. He's the guy who's been doing
15:48
law fair, trying to take spectrum from Iridium from
15:51
global star. He's been, you know, he called
15:54
funny enough, he called AST space Mobile, a meme stock and
15:57
like backed by foreign investors, when in fact their
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biggest partner at the time who's not their partner anymore,
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T-Mobile is owned by a German company, right?
16:07
And so the mental contortion that these guys do for law fair
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is it's it's pretty laughable, but I bought him like that's his
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job. So he he then retweeted what
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when Shotwell said and he said I'll take that bet Interesting
16:20
read. Registration required.
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SpaceX Spooks the telcos and throws towers of bone.
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A press release, not a deal. He writes there is no different
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agreement yet, which is the tell.
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I don't know what he's trying to imply by that.
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The DOJ question. The bigger question is whether
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the DOJ even allows it. 3 high margin competitors moving in
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parallel just as new rival prepares to enter is the kind of
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pattern that raises real collusion concerns.
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So yes, that's true. The DOJ and the FCC are going to
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review this this JV very closely and this JV is going to go to
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the regulars and say we want to the only way to provide
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wholesome broadband service to consumers is to pull our
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spectrum and use AST space mobile today.
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And they're going to tell regulars by the way.
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So be prepared. They're going to say in the
17:07
future, we can like invite other satellite companies too, because
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if you want to get through competitive antitrust review,
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you're going to have to say that, right?
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And then, and the ground has been propped, AT&T, Verizon, and
17:18
just recently T-Mobile, the CEO said, hey, we want to use like
17:21
other satellite companies too. You have to make public
17:23
statements to, to back up what you're trying to do, right?
17:27
And so by doing that, they're going to say, we're fostering
17:30
competition. We're, we're supporting chair
17:34
cars like, you know, improving services for everyone.
17:37
But they're going to be able to say like, hey, so this, this
17:40
guy's Starlink, you gave them 60 megahertz of spectrum.
17:43
They can sell directly to consumers, which is what they're
17:45
already doing now. And they can sell consumers an E
17:48
SIM, which then because Sterling is a separate roaming network,
17:51
it's not integrated into the MNO's core.
17:53
So they're going to be able to compete.
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You know, they, they can sell that, that E SIM service to
17:59
Verizon, T-Mobile, AC or AT&T customers.
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And so they're going to be able to compete directly, right?
18:05
I mean, it's, it's a true trillion dollar company.
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They got a marketing budget, they can do it.
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And then and then, oh, by the way, like this Amazon guy, they
18:11
just bought global star and that's Amazon.
18:13
And they're, they're providing this like backup service to
18:16
Apple and, and eventually they'll get there maybe in 3-4,
18:19
five years, like when they have to wholesale design a new
18:22
constellation. So if you're a regulator, like
18:26
you're telling me is AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, you got
18:29
like Starling here who's like, they want to eat off our plate
18:32
and Amazon who eventually is going to try to do something
18:35
you're, you're saying like that's anti competitive.
18:37
No, no, we're, we're just trying to provide a, a real broadband
18:41
service because what Starlink is doing is texting, intermittent
18:44
texting, and Global Starter is doing intermittent texting to
18:47
provide a real critical solution, which by the way, is
18:49
like a national security issue. We're going to pull our
18:52
resources and deliver this solution.
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And it's going to be great for the Department of Defense.
18:56
It's going to be great for Firstnet disaster recovery, all
18:59
this stuff, right? And so Dave Goldman here, as I
19:05
said before, and Gwen Shotwell, they, they crashed out today on
19:08
Twitter. Instead of applauding this JV
19:10
because it's, it's good for the, the industry, they're coming out
19:14
guns blazing saying we're going to fight this.
19:16
And of course, like Tim Farrar after saying like this JV is
19:20
going to work with Starlink and blah, blah, blah.
19:22
He's like, oh, I guess they're fighting it because like, yeah,
19:27
I mean, Tim Farrar, what a complete idiot.
19:30
He he's I guess he was claiming that actually, I don't, I mean,
19:36
I don't know if he at this point is like pure cinema, right?
19:39
It's entertainment. This guy, he's just totally
19:42
kiboshed his career. And even in the face of factual
19:46
evidence, right, that AST is working with the company with,
19:49
with ATT, Verizon and T-Mobile. Yeah, we've heard at Deutsche
19:52
Bank today to, you know, that that was echoed and, you know, I
19:56
talked with the company and and what what can't be said the
19:59
first release. They're working together, right?
20:03
And, and it's, it's confirmed by the Starlink executives crashing
20:06
out saying we're going to go take on those three guys.
20:08
Why would they say that? They're, they're saying that
20:11
because they're now on the outside looking in the, the, the
20:14
T-Mobile exclusivity coming in June slash July, that's going
20:17
away and T-bone MO, maybe they'll work with them for a few
20:20
more months or maybe they'll, I mean, and this is, this is the
20:23
way that from a competitive standpoint, T-Mobile can couch
20:25
this to the regulars and say, yeah, we're going to offer,
20:28
we're going to offer Starlink to our customers, but it's not
20:32
going to be the preferred service.
20:34
But customers will have an option to, to pick it.
20:36
But then if they want true broadband, they'll, they'll pick
20:38
the AST space mobile solution. So it'll be on a menu of
20:40
options. And maybe AST solution will be,
20:43
I don't know, 12 dollars, $15.00 a month start like $10 a month.
20:47
Do you want broadband or do you want texting?
20:50
And so we'll leave it up to the consumers.
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Like that's one way. Well, they'll they'll go to the
20:53
DOJ and FCC and say, hey, look, I'm giving people the choice.
20:56
And it's like, it's like the old windows analogy when they try to
20:59
bundle Internet Explorer, but everybody kept lying arc
21:03
everyone kept downloading Fox, you know, the Fox browser,
21:07
Firefox or, or Chrome. It's like, well, I don't want to
21:09
use Internet Explorer. It's a piece of shit.
21:11
And that's what Starlink is, right.
21:12
And so maybe the regular might say you have to offer Starlink
21:16
as a potential choice. And sure, sure.
21:18
Like if we're going to compete on the merits of the service, I
21:21
will take AST every day and twice on Sunday versus Darling,
21:24
right? And so that's, that is the, you
21:30
know, that, that that is one, one of the competitive dynamics
21:33
where when they go to the DOJ and FCC, that's how they get it
21:36
approved, right? Because like you're going to
21:39
tell me that a $220 company that's been given a, a war chest
21:42
of spectrum, a mid band spectrum, not low band, but that
21:45
they can compete. Of course they can compete, but
21:49
are they going to be, is it, are you in a twisted armor, T-Mobile
21:51
that they have to, you know, after they made this mistake
21:53
that they have to carry their service?
21:54
No, it's up to them. They can, they can decide who
21:56
they want to carry, right? And so I think for anybody who's
22:01
trying to fight and say that Starling is not walking from
22:05
T-Mobile, ask them, look at the tweet from Glenn Shotwell and
22:09
and Dave Goldman. Like what?
22:10
So if they're not walking like, why, why are, are, are these
22:14
executives of Starling acting like they just got left at the
22:16
altar? Like why would they crash out on
22:19
Twitter like this? It's totally unprofessional.
22:22
And why would they? Yeah, it's, it's the the
22:27
dissidents, the cognitive dissidents to get around like
22:32
facts that are staring in the face.
22:34
And and this is like when when I was a hedge fund, when I was in
22:37
the hedge fund world. And, and you know, you're my job
22:41
is to read everything that's being said and not being said.
22:44
And, and looking at the Mosaic for space mob, it's like, Oh
22:48
yeah, you could piece it all together.
22:49
Like this morning, the PR came from the out from the JV. 2
22:52
minutes later, PR came out from AST.
22:55
SpaceX did not say anything for 10 hours.
22:59
And then and there was no PR. And then Starlink executives
23:02
come out and say they're going to fight this.
23:03
They're going to they're going to fight the, the, the, the
23:07
Goliath of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile and and Dave Goldman
23:11
from a regulatory point of view is going to fight this.
23:13
It'll be interesting to see their arguments when they filed
23:16
the FCC in trying to kibosh kibosh this.
23:18
But I can guarantee you this like I don't, I don't, I don't
23:22
see T-Mobile going back to to Starling.
23:25
And so they're going to have to figure out a way to sell the
23:27
direct to sell service on its own on a standalone basis.
23:31
And we might actually get to this point where Elan may make a
23:34
decision where it's just not economical to continue right.
23:36
Because like, if you don't have at least a third of the most
23:40
profitable market in the world, then how can you amortize and
23:43
justify the economics of a consolation globally, right?
23:45
And I'm not talking about the fixed wireless service that goes
23:49
to your home that we need to dish.
23:50
I'm talking about direct to sell, right?
23:52
And so ASC just locked up the USA 100% in Europe, they've
23:57
locked up everybody with the exception of Deutsche Telecom.
23:59
And I am telling you right now, watch Deutsche Telecom join
24:03
satellite connect in Europe because that's going to happen.
24:05
It's, it's absolutely going to happen in the next few few
24:08
months because Deutsche Telecom had to agree to allow T-Mobile
24:13
to do this. And as we know, deutsche.com
24:15
knows like they don't trust Elon Musk.
24:18
And so I, it's going back to what I was saying this morning,
24:20
like it's interesting the structure like AST Space Mobile
24:24
and, and Vodafone created the joint venture satellite Connect
24:27
Europe in order to deliver these services.
24:29
And they brought all these carriers on board.
24:31
They got like covering 27 countries in the EU, but that
24:34
was the structural framework that was put in place to allow
24:39
these competitive carriers to work together for a common cause
24:43
which is delivering broadband connectivity no matter where you
24:46
are in Europe and also to provide disaster recovery
24:49
service. You know, first that the
24:50
equivalent, first that interestingly, that model has
24:53
now been brought to the US like the model that AST developed
24:57
with Vodafone is now being put to use between AST and AT and
25:01
TAT. And T is the, the quarterback,
25:04
the senior partner of this JV. The two junior partners are
25:07
Verizon and T-Mobile. Previously, when it was just
25:09
AT&T and Verizon, AT&T was a senior partner, Verizon's a
25:13
junior partner. AT&T has a board seat at AST.
25:16
Verizon has a, a board observer seat.
25:18
They're both investors, They both contributed spectrum.
25:21
But now T-Mobile is joining and and this, this JV is exactly the
25:25
same like satellite connecting Europe.
25:27
And so don't, I wouldn't be surprised if we see in the next
25:31
few weeks this new JV called Satellite Connect America,
25:34
right? And yeah, it, it, the reason why
25:39
you need this JV is that you've got, you know, 3 competing
25:42
partners. And so you're going to have to
25:44
create some entity that's going to be able to, you know,
25:47
coordinate all this stuff. As I mentioned before, I think
25:50
it's and for those people that heard it already, you know,
25:53
apologies for, for the redundancy, but you know, from
25:56
the release it says like the existing agreements are going to
26:00
continue on with, with the carriers, right as is.
26:03
So ASD has a three-year mutual exclusivity, I'm sorry,
26:07
exclusivity with, with AT&T when service starts, which will be
26:13
probably what early 2027 with Verizon, they have I think
26:17
around 2 to three years. No one really knows, but that's
26:19
kind of the sense that I, that I got in various discussions with
26:22
the company and, and from some research and guess what,
26:26
T-Mobile with Starlink that exclusively actually ends next
26:31
month or in July, right? And so that's why this, this is
26:36
happening today. And that's why the Starlink
26:38
executives crashed out, right? Because they're getting left
26:43
out. And anybody who's telling you
26:45
that that's not the case, they're in absolute denial.
26:50
So while I'm speaking or if you have questions or comments, feel
26:54
free to to leave them and I'll go through any questions because
26:59
I'm sure some people have them one go actually here, here's one
27:03
Juan Gonzalez. Any potential antitrust concerns
27:05
on the JV out of Brendan Carr? Yeah, Brendan Carr, he's going
27:09
to there. He's going to poke holes through
27:11
this and and the DOJ is going to do it as well.
27:13
But just just know, like the, the, the attorneys at the
27:18
regulatory attorneys at at AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are really
27:22
good, right? And so they're going to
27:23
structure this in such a way that is pro competition.
27:28
They're going to, they're going to commit to having an open
27:31
framework and evaluating, you know, other satellite services.
27:35
And so they're going to make it seem like it's competitive,
27:39
which, which it will be, right? But then it's up to them.
27:42
They don't have to work with Starlink.
27:44
Clearly they're not. Starlink just told us today that
27:46
they're not. Could they work with Amazon?
27:49
I you know, Apple in the future maybe, but but global star
27:53
doesn't have enough spectrum to work with.
27:55
They're not bringing much to the table.
27:56
They have an old consolation. They have to replace it at the
27:58
point Amazon will develop a new one.
28:00
But they're not bringing anything to stable because their
28:02
satellites are focused on mid band ASC.
28:05
The first block 1 satellites are focused on low band cellular.
28:08
So so they can they can provide additional value to the carriers
28:13
in lining up their spectrum. I talked about this before where
28:16
if you have spectrum that's not being used in these like dead
28:19
zones, then by the fact that AC can light that up, that adds
28:24
value to your spectrum because that users can go there and they
28:26
have a good experience. On top of that, from a CapEx
28:29
perspective, in the suburban areas, you can actually start
28:32
decommissioning towers, right? Because according to the FCC,
28:36
you can use satellite to meet build out requirements or
28:39
coverage requirements, right? So, so that by the fact that
28:42
you're, you're lowering your ongoing, ongoing CapEx to build
28:47
new towers, but also reducing costs of decommissioning towers,
28:50
like your margins go up and then by servicing incremental people
28:54
that you weren't able to service before, your revenues go up.
28:58
And so that spectrum by being lit up by a satellite, it
29:02
actually increases the value if it was worth a dollar then or
29:05
sorry, $10 and it's, it's worth probably 12 or 13 or $14.00
29:08
because it's used more efficiently and you get more out
29:10
of it. So, but going back to to your
29:15
question, like, I don't think from an antitrust point of view,
29:19
I already went through it before, but they're going to
29:21
make a very good case as to why this is pro competitive.
29:24
Most importantly, it's it's good for the consumer.
29:27
And Starlink is a a perfectly capable party.
29:31
They've got big boy pants, they've got like spectrum,
29:34
they've got 2 trillion market cap.
29:36
Like they can go compete. They can go directly to consumer
29:39
and try to stand up some type of service.
29:40
Like this whole idea that they're the David versus
29:44
Goliath, like who are they kidding?
29:46
Like such such a crazy bizarre like message they're trying to
29:51
convey. And so, yeah, I don't think that
29:56
I don't think that there's going to be any competitive issues
29:58
here. And you know, they might, they
29:59
might need to concede some things here and there.
30:01
But at the end of the day, the best technology should win.
30:04
And this new JV is going to pull low band spectrum.
30:07
And there's only one company that can deploy low band
30:09
spectrum, but that's AST. And then AST is going to bring
30:12
to bear its mid band spectrum and it's only going to sell that
30:15
through the carriers because that's, that's the model we
30:17
we've talked about how AST is a is carrier, is a partner of
30:23
carriers. They don't want to, they don't
30:24
want the customers, they're just providing wholesale services,
30:27
right? And whereas Starlink and Amazon,
30:30
they eventually want to own the customer, right?
30:32
And so, so I don't think it from a competitive standpoint, if
30:36
you're, it's kind of hard to argue that Amazon and and
30:40
Starlink at some point in the future won't be competitive.
30:44
So yeah, let's see someone saying why is the volume so low?
30:52
Is it, are they talking about like the trading volume or me
30:56
talking? Hopefully you guys can hear me.
31:00
Let's see here. But yeah, it's let me see if
31:04
there's more comments. But yeah, today I, I, I don't
31:08
often do this, but like there's people that, that, you know, I
31:12
talked to and today, I mean, I'm pretty conservative in terms of
31:15
not telling people like to go out and buy, buy stock.
31:19
But today I was saying this is the one day where you can go
31:23
out. And when AST was at like 7675
31:26
and when, when you went to 74 for some particular reason, I
31:29
was like, you should go buy it because the market's not pricing
31:31
this in. This is like the announcement
31:33
when we got Verizon and the stock was up.
31:35
Like, I don't know, it went from five to like 9 or 8, but then
31:39
eventually like as this market started to process the news, the
31:43
stock rally to 11:12 and then it ended up at a high a few months,
31:47
maybe it's like 2 months later at 39.
31:49
This is that news today. This is that news.
31:51
Like I actually in one of my family accounts, like I I
31:55
thought I'd put in a buy order and it didn't go through at like
31:57
75. So I actually still went out and
32:00
bought it like 81 because it's still a good buy here, right?
32:03
It's still good buy at 82 1/2, right?
32:05
Because this, this is like, this is like the clearing event,
32:11
right? This is the watershed moment for
32:13
the industry where Starlink is going to have to go out and
32:17
compete on their own and AST is now bringing T-Mobile into the
32:21
fold. And so it's got all three
32:23
carriers, right? And I don't, I don't know like
32:27
what better bet there is out there.
32:31
That's just, and, and we're we're only talking about the
32:33
commercial business. We're not even talking about the
32:34
defense side, right. And, and, and the doubts that
32:40
people might have had earlier, like, you know, what does this
32:42
mean for Starlink and all that stuff?
32:43
Like we got affirmation in the afternoon.
32:46
Like the Starlink executives pretty much said like they're
32:49
cut out of this or they will be cut out or T-Mobile has told
32:51
them to go walk. And so, yeah, what an exciting
32:55
time. Like I think I was telling Kook
32:58
that, you know, Verizon at getting added was, was a
33:03
transformational event. And I, I covered this early in
33:05
space, but I know some of you guys are joined late later.
33:08
You know, Verizon, AT&T, they absolutely they hate each other,
33:12
but then there's no one more they hate more.
33:14
They don't, there's not a party they hate more than T-Mobile.
33:17
T-Mobile is like a thorn in their sides and they absolutely
33:20
hate T-Mobile. The fact that they brought them
33:22
in, I mean, the analogy is like, it's imagine like the Ayatollah
33:26
taking, you know, Iran and Israel making peace.
33:28
Like they, they, they bury families together or something.
33:31
Like this is what that is right now, the fact that T-Mobile is
33:34
joining AT&T and Verizon absolutely hate their guts.
33:37
They hate them more than each other.
33:39
They, they, they just hate them. They should tell you something.
33:43
And, and this whole notion of the directive device market
33:46
being too small or, you know, people won't pay for it,
33:49
whatever it is, right? Like these carriers are banding
33:51
together and creating a JV to make sure they get it right.
33:55
And so that should tell you a lot like from a competitive
33:58
framework, like the potential threat to the business, but also
34:01
the economics and, and someone at Deutsche, Deutsche Bank,
34:05
Scott spoke at this conference earlier today and someone was
34:08
like, well, what if, what if the carriers try to squeeze AST on
34:11
margins? And it's like, that's not how
34:13
they're thinking about this service.
34:14
Like this is a direct to device is a revenue driver.
34:18
It's, it's going to help them Dr. ARPU and reduce customer
34:23
turn. That's not something that you
34:25
try to crimp on margins, right? Like in a 5050 joint venture,
34:30
sorry, where you're where you're splitting revenues, 5050 you're
34:34
going to try to drive revenues, right?
34:35
Like why would you try to squeeze your partner and they
34:37
not invest in the constellation of the network and ends up being
34:41
crappy? No, this is a, if you'd imagine
34:43
like the M and OS they've been, they've been praying for
34:46
something like this, something to sell to consumers that
34:48
consumers will want. Why would they skimp on that?
34:51
And that's why that's why Sterling failed, right?
34:53
They they put up a minimally viable product of 650 satellites
34:57
that can do about what 3-4 megabits per second within the
35:01
very large radius versus AST that can do with the previous
35:05
satellite 100 megabits and the new one, the block 2 solids will
35:09
be do 200 megabits per second and that's going to increase
35:12
probably up to like 1 GB per second once the mid band
35:17
constellations launched. And you know, you get some of
35:19
these spectrum efficiencies from, you know, a optimization.
35:24
But for the carriers like they, they want to, this is a, this is
35:28
a revenue driver, right? It's in.
35:30
And it's also a big CapEx savings for them.
35:32
They're not going to want to skip on this.
35:34
They're not going to be paying by his pound foolish.
35:37
And you know, we learned from the T-Mobile agreements with,
35:41
with Starling, which is absolutely insane.
35:44
T-Mobile paid Starling for access and then they were giving
35:49
them $0.80 for every dollar that was generated.
35:52
And T-Mobile kept $0.20, which is crazy for shitty service,
35:56
whereas AST is splitting at 5050.
35:58
So for every carrier like it's, it's a win win, right?
36:01
Like they're going to, they're going to get better customer
36:04
satisfaction. They're going to drive higher
36:05
ARPU's. Like this is going to be, this
36:08
is going to be part of some premium plan.
36:10
I mean, this is my, my guess, like a premium plan and they're
36:13
going to charge a premium for it and they're going to be able to
36:15
drive ARPU increases and people are going to be happy to pay
36:18
that. Or for people who are on
36:21
vacation, they're going to pay 10 about dollars.
36:24
Like if you're, if you're a mobile worker or I, I made this,
36:29
I talked about this example earlier in the midday talk where
36:32
Amazon, they had this new commercial on TV where the dad
36:36
is with two kids and they're camping out of nowhere.
36:38
And they, they got dad takes a picture of this rash and AI
36:43
tells them like it's Poison Ivy. And then, you know, it says
36:46
Amazon health or whatever. And, and then I was, I was
36:49
watching that, that advertisement.
36:52
I was like, well, how is he going to connect?
36:55
What network is he connected to do that?
36:57
Because he's out, out in the, you know, out nowhere in, in
37:02
this tent with his kids at night time.
37:03
And, and then of course, it's like, oh, well, eventually
37:06
they're going to hopefully get global start to that point,
37:08
which, you know, good luck, But you're going to need that type
37:11
of service, that connectivity. And people will pay a premium
37:14
like when I go skiing or when I go to the Hamptons or if I'm
37:18
just driving upstate or, or even across, you know, parts of New
37:22
York and I, I'm in a pretty dense urban environment.
37:26
Like when I'm down South or on the West Coast, you get dropped
37:29
calls all the time. Like people will pay premium.
37:31
And if you're, if you're someone, if you're a power user,
37:35
right, like if you need your Bloomberg setup and your trading
37:38
screens or whatever, and you're out in some cabin somewhere,
37:41
like you're going to pay, you're going to pay 20 bucks for a day
37:43
pass or, or it's going to be just part of your premium, you
37:46
know, package, right? It's like when the alternative
37:50
is no connectivity, I would pay 30 bucks.
37:54
I would pay bucks to have connectivity because I, you
37:56
know, I need to get my stock trades in or I need to do
37:58
research or if my kid gets lost, like I'm going to pay a premium
38:03
to be keep tabs on them, right? And so, yeah, I, I think it's an
38:10
exciting time right now where the market doesn't fully
38:13
appreciate this. And it's going to take, I think
38:15
Deutsche Bank, by the way, like they did the call with Scott
38:17
earlier today. And, and there were some good
38:19
questions out of that. Like I, I think he's probably
38:21
going to publish a note, maybe he'll upgrade the stock because
38:24
he started to get some sense of what this means, right?
38:27
And so I think Roth, Roth capital did as well.
38:31
Bank of America totally missed the mark today, but they'll get
38:33
it. They'll eventually get it.
38:35
And, and maybe some of these research channels aren't
38:37
following Starlink, the executives accounts, but they
38:41
should be, they should see that Starlink is up in arms about
38:44
this, right? And they're only up in arms
38:45
because they're getting they're not part of it.
38:48
They're absolutely not part of it.
38:50
Don't forget what Tim Farrar saying or any of these clowns
38:53
like they have no clue. And and yeah, it's just
38:57
absolutely entertaining. But someone saying here, yes.
39:02
So when we talk about catalysts like AST, the satellites, the
39:07
Bachelor Mint could go that that PR could be tomorrow, it could
39:10
be this evening, could be over the weekend, but that's going
39:13
out soon. The FAA is going to approve Blue
39:18
Origin for launch very soon here.
39:21
And that's based off of due diligence and, and talking with
39:24
various people. Like we feel very confident
39:27
about that. We being space mob.
39:29
So I think you're going to see a Blue Origin launch probably in
39:32
early June. That's probably going to be
39:34
Amazon Leo first, but then AC. We've got a handful of Blue
39:38
Origin launches. We also have a handful of SpaceX
39:40
launches and equivalents, meaning ULA Centaur, Vulcan,
39:44
Centaur. And so, you know, we've got a
39:48
launch in June and then we've got either one or two launches
39:51
in July. I mentioned this in the, in the
39:53
space earlier today, but I think the company is now on this
39:57
cadence where they, they're, I think the old statement of like
40:01
launch on average one every one to two months.
40:04
That was actually for the entire year.
40:06
But in actuality, from here on to the end of the year, they're,
40:09
they're going to be launching 1 to potentially 2 * a month.
40:13
So that's that new alpha for for everybody.
40:16
But but yeah, the, the, the last time I'll just remind people,
40:20
last time I was in Vegas was 2025 and in May and we were at
40:24
$25 and we were consolidating for some period of time and
40:27
people were upset. And then we had I think like
40:31
Trump get into a row with, with Elon Musk and, and we, I think
40:35
satellite connect to Europe may have been announced at that
40:37
time. And there were a few other
40:38
things as well. We got Vodafone Idea as a MNO
40:42
and the stock just absolutely took off and just went on this
40:45
unidirectional move over the course of June and July and went
40:50
to like from 25 to 55 and then dropped back a little bit and
40:54
then just kept going higher. Similarly in 2024 where you had
40:58
actual copper roll events, which is what happened today, which is
41:01
in in in May of 2024, we had AT&T announced a commercial
41:07
agreement with AST. They finally inked that after
41:10
having worked together for so many years.
41:12
And the stock went from like 2:00 to 5:00.
41:14
And then at the end of May, that's when Verizon announced
41:17
that they were joining the partnership contributing
41:19
spectrum, making a strategic investment.
41:21
And the stock went from 5:00 to 11:00 and just never looked
41:23
back. Like it was a new directional
41:25
movement up and it closed at like 39 high or hit intraday
41:29
high 39. Maybe it was like a few, maybe
41:34
it was July, August, I think August, yeah.
41:37
So it was like 2 months later, but that's what we have here.
41:41
And I'm, I'm telling you like we have all these catalysts lined
41:44
up. This tot was telling me the
41:46
other week, he was like, you know, there's going to be
41:48
something out of left field that really takes the stock up.
41:50
And that's what this is. This was out of left field.
41:52
This is like, OK, it wasn't explicitly said in the, in the,
41:55
the PR, but for people who are, who understand it, it AST just
42:00
brought on T-Mobile and, and they locked up 100% of the
42:04
market. Like, what more do you want?
42:06
And then we're on this launch campaign.
42:08
We're about to like ship a Batchman new batch.
42:11
It's going to go on Falcon 9, there's going to be another one.
42:14
And then new Glen's going to take up four, and then it's
42:16
going to take up six and then eventually get to 8 satellites.
42:19
And then Vulcan Centaur Ula that's going to take 5
42:23
satellites. We also learned something today
42:26
from this Deutsche Bank conference where Ariana will be
42:29
able to take 4:00 to 5:00, depending on the configuration.
42:32
Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy, I think it's going to take about 3
42:36
satellites. And then because these are the
42:38
composite satellites, India's Israel can actually take two of
42:41
them up in the launch. And so there's, there's a whole
42:44
host of launch, you know, launches that are going to
42:46
become available in 2027. By then in early 2027, we should
42:51
have 4550 satellites. We'll give you once we're at
42:54
this production cadence like getting to 60 quite fast.
42:58
And then I think Scott mentioned, you know, head
43:02
starting in Q1, they they might start dribbling out the the new
43:06
mid band Bluebirds, which are going to be block 3, right.
43:10
So that's already in the works. So I've been rambling.
43:14
I probably need to, you know, I, I dipped out on my friends.
43:17
I need to come meet up with them, But it's an exciting time.
43:20
Like I think I don't say I don't make, you know, predictions
43:26
often and partially because I'm scared of being wrong.
43:29
But when you have high conviction, like when
43:31
something's staring you at in the face, which is what it was
43:34
this morning where the stock was like at 747576, people didn't
43:38
know what to make of it. And I was telling friends like,
43:41
you need to buy this, like you need to buy as much as you can
43:45
because we are about to, we are about to enter like a multi week
43:49
run, unidirectional run, right? Because you've got SpaceX IPO
43:53
that's coming up. That fact is it going to be
43:55
released soon? It'll be interesting to see how
43:58
SpaceX kind of, you know, couches this on the roadshow
44:01
that T-mobile's leaving. They're, they're probably not
44:03
going to say that, of course, but but that's what's what's
44:05
happening here. So you've got that tailwind.
44:09
Rocket Lab is like crushing it. Stocks doing well, that's great.
44:12
Like other space names are doing well.
44:14
The backdrop is all here. Like the, the ingredients are
44:17
here. Like we've got, we got 3 new
44:19
military contracts like during the quarter, which people forgot
44:21
about because like the price, the, the stock price wrote the
44:24
narrative. But yeah, we got T-Mobile.
44:27
We got T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T, like where do you, what more do
44:29
you want? And we've got we're launching
44:30
constellation like everything is primed to go like we, we are
44:34
coiled, like we, we have underperformed the space sector.
44:38
And you know, rightly or wrongly, but I'm bullish.
44:42
I I'm so bullish. I, I, I added upside today like
44:48
with abandoned right? Like when, when the stock opened
44:51
at 7576 and it was like teetering.
44:54
I was like, this is just dumb. Like I'm, I'm buying like it's,
44:56
it's similar like when kook like rips few 100,000 shares of AST
45:00
when the Verizon news came out and the market like didn't know
45:03
what to do with it, right. But that's what we have.
45:06
That's what we have. And it's going to take time for
45:07
the market to digest this. And as they digest this and as
45:10
they look at Tim Farrar's like contortion and be and be like,
45:15
what is he talking about? Like he has no clue.
45:19
And the sell side analysts like actually dig in.
45:21
They talk to they talk to Scott and Abell and they figure out
45:24
what this means. It's going to turn isn't and
45:27
it's going to turn fast. And as this as the stock
45:30
rallies, people are going to be like, wait, what happened?
45:32
What is this? What's going on with this
45:33
company? And they're going to dig in and
45:35
wait. What they got AT&T, Verizon and
45:37
T-Mobile and and Starlink is getting kicked to the side.
45:40
Yeah, that's what this is. I I don't know, like what other
45:45
story can be that compelling? It's like the years ago it, it
45:54
was like an impossible outcome, right?
45:57
And then Verizon joining ATT, it was an impossible outcome.
45:59
And then now T-Mobile, it's like what what just happened?
46:03
And so that's where we are. I highly recommend that you
46:08
guys, you don't have to listen to the the space.
46:10
I did early this morning because I was I was like really tired.
46:12
But listen to the midday one because I go through a lot of
46:15
details about what what transpired in the competitive
46:18
dynamics here. And then this space, if you if
46:20
you join late, it's recorded. You should listen to it.
46:24
But yeah, the key thing is that we have confirmation from 2
46:29
senior star Starlink space slash SpaceX execs that they they are
46:34
out of this. They are out of this like they
46:37
want to go to war against AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.
46:41
T-Mobile is dropping them like a bad habit.
46:43
And, and yeah, there's going to be some interesting regulatory
46:48
filings and, and we're going to learn more.
46:50
I wouldn't be surprised if we, we hear rumblings that AST and
46:53
T-Mobile are going to start working together in June and
46:55
July. And then the big one too is
46:58
going to be Georgia Telecom. Like I wouldn't be surprised to
47:00
hear Deutsche Telecom as part of their offering the best service
47:04
to their customers, they're going to take on AST Space
47:07
mobile too and become part of satellite connect and, and join
47:10
and explore potential service like that.
47:12
They're going to be as light handed as they can about it
47:14
initially because again, we got to get through regulatory
47:16
review, but this is where the puck is going.
47:20
And so, yeah, Congrats everyone. I, I it's early, but I have
47:25
conviction. Like if the market really
47:27
understood what happened today, the stock would be at 101 twenty
47:30
and it would keep growing higher, right?
47:32
And, and I think that's what's going to happen in the next two
47:34
weeks. So anyway, thanks everyone for
47:36
joining. Appreciate it And yeah, thanks
47:40
for listening to me for the third time today, but I'm
47:43
excited. I I haven't been this excited in
47:45
since we announced our partnership with Verizon, but
47:48
this is even bigger than that. Anyway, thanks and take everyone
47:51
goodbye. Thanks for listening to the AST
48:01
Space Mobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
48:05
you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
48:08
others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
48:11
review. To catch all the latest news
48:13
about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
48:17
Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
48:23
We're doing something very, very big and I think with this
48:25
technology we can really affect billion lives.
48:28
AFT Space Mobile is the only company that has proven
48:32
technology to deliver cellular mobile connectivity directly
48:36
from space to do everyday smartphone.
48:39
People will just basically turn the phone be seamless.
48:42
But regardless of where you are, we don't want the user even to
48:45
know that it's connected by satellite.
48:48
Our role is to bring this into reality, always in partnership
48:52
with the enemy. Listen.
49:06
Waffles.