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Ready or Not, Here They Come: Preparing for the electric vehicle transformation. · Thinking Transportation: Engaging Conversations about Transportation Innovations

• 0:16
  Bernie Fette (host): Welcome.
• 0:17
  Bernie Fette (host): This is Thinking Transportation-- conversations about how we get ourselves and what we need from one place to another, and what it takes to make that happen.
• 0:27
  Bernie Fette (host): I'm Bernie Fette with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute.
• 0:32
  Bernie Fette: Automakers seem to be sold on the idea of electric vehicles dominating the industry in the near future.
• 0:39
  Bernie Fette: General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen collectively plan to spend almost$80 billion on research and development in the next five years.
• 0:50
  Bernie Fette: Electric cars now make up only about 2 percent of new vehicle sales in the U.S., but, the pace of change is clearly picking up.
• 0:59
  Bernie Fette: So what exactly does that mean for us?
• 1:01
  Bernie Fette: What does it mean for the fuel that we use?
• 1:04
  Bernie Fette: How we use the roads, and how we pay for them.
• 1:07
  Bernie Fette: These are some of the questions that Joe Zietsman, assistant director of TTI, and Research Scientist Ann Xu are exploring in this new chapter of transportation history.
• 1:20
  Bernie Fette: And, they are here with us.
• 1:22
  Bernie Fette: Ann and Joe, thank you for sharing your time.
• 1:25
  Ann Xu (guest): Thank you.
• 1:26
  Ann Xu (guest): Glad to be here.
• 1:27
  Joe Zietsman (guest): Thank you.
• 1:28
  Joe Zietsman (guest): It's a pleasure to be with you guys.
• 1:29
  Bernie Fette: When I was getting ready for our visit, I came upon a brief history lesson.
• 1:35
  Bernie Fette: Electric cars weren't always this tiny percentage of the U.
• 1:39
  Bernie Fette: S.
• 1:39
  Bernie Fette: market.
• 1:40
  Bernie Fette: Electricity was in power source competition with both steam and gasoline more than a century ago.
• 1:48
  Bernie Fette: So at the time, more than a third of the cars on the road at that time were electric, even if it was only for a few years.
• 1:55
  Bernie Fette: It's safe to say we've been here before, haven't we?
• 2:00
  Ann Xu: Yes and no.
• 2:01
  Ann Xu: On this topic, there are actually two very interesting documentaries.
• 2:06
  Ann Xu: The first one is Who Killed The Electric Car?
• 2:10
  Ann Xu: And then the second one is The Revenge Of The Electric Car.
• 2:14
  Ann Xu: And I think that tells a good story of why electric cars didn't go very far before.
• 2:20
  Ann Xu: But I think we're at a different place.
• 2:24
  Ann Xu: Essentially, Who Killed The Electric Car talks about the power of the oil and gas industry.
• 2:30
  Ann Xu: But then The Revenge Of The Electric Car talks about, you know, the power of entrepreneurship and creative thinking.
• 2:39
  Ann Xu: Then the reinventing, the electric car as the stylish and desirable option.
• 2:44
  Ann Xu: Since Tesla's roadster came out a few years ago and the electric cars became, you know, the desirable option, there have been a lot of other options.
• 2:55
  Ann Xu: And I think we're at a juncture in history where there are a few things coming to play here.
• 3:02
  Ann Xu: First of all, people are a lot more aware of it and people are seeing the consequences of it.
• 3:09
  Ann Xu: So electric cars nowadays are a viable solution to this environmental challenge.
• 3:17
  Ann Xu: And then second of all, electric cars do represent a way for significant innovation because the powertrain is entirely different from internal combustion engines.
• 3:30
  Ann Xu: The supply chain is quite a bit different.
• 3:33
  Ann Xu: And that allows entrepreneurs to reinvent and disrupt this very mature auto industry.
• 3:42
  Ann Xu: If you think about how Tesla has come along in the very beginning, they were actually thinking about building a hybrid car.
• 3:51
  Ann Xu: They thought very hard about it.
• 3:52
  Ann Xu: They tried it.
• 3:54
  Ann Xu: They decided not to go that route.
• 3:56
  Ann Xu: They decided to go entirely electric because the mechanics, the engineering is so much easier, so much cleaner than the internal combustion engine.
• 4:08
  Ann Xu: And because of that, I see that the electric car industry is presenting a way for new entrants to combat the very established auto industry.
• 4:20
  Ann Xu: I think those are the two big forces at play here.
• 4:25
  Bernie Fette: What you mentioned about the way that the electric cars are built, being so much different from internal combustion engine-powered cars, I suppose, would have an appeal from a maintenance perspective, if they run much more, if they're built much more simply?
• 4:39
  Ann Xu: Yes, they have so many fewer moving parts.
• 4:43
  Ann Xu: That's why actually, some of the TTI research projects have shown that, you know, for trucks, for example, yes, electric trucks right now are so much more expensive than a diesel truck, but because of the maintenance costs savings, a truck would actually break even at about 30,000 miles per year.
• 5:05
  Ann Xu: And that over a 12 years of lifetime of a truck and 30,000 miles is not that much for a truck if you think about it.
• 5:13
  Bernie Fette: Right.
• 5:14
  Bernie Fette: The latest numbers tell us that electric cars right now make up just about 2 percent of new car sales in the United States right now.
• 5:21
  Bernie Fette: I think it's 3 percent worldwide.
• 5:23
  Bernie Fette: But in just looking around on the road, it seems to me that they're more numerous than that.
• 5:31
  Bernie Fette: I'm wondering if that has been something that either of you have noticed as well?
• 5:37
  Joe Zietsman: Absolutely, Bernie, I think that's something that we noticed and the numbers also confirm that if you start looking at the trends and I think it's a couple of forces in play here.
• 5:47
  Joe Zietsman: You know, firstly, the manufacturers are a hundred percent on board with this new trend and they are definitely investing tons of money to make this happen.
• 5:56
  Joe Zietsman: And secondly, the government is pushing this issue for, for various reasons.
• 6:01
  Joe Zietsman: And one of them is environmental.
• 6:03
  Joe Zietsman: If you look at the air quality regulations, this is definitely a clear way of addressing some of the emission concerns that we have both on pollutant emissions, as well as with climate change and greenhouse gas.
• 6:15
  Joe Zietsman: So there's a force there from the government as well.
• 6:19
  Joe Zietsman: And then thirdly, I think the, the public-- they're jumping on board and they're beginning to experience electric vehicles because to your point, they are more numerous, there are many more options to look at and you get the chance to drive some of these and test them out and feel them.
• 6:34
  Joe Zietsman: And I think what the consumers are finding out, they're very different.
• 6:38
  Joe Zietsman: It's not the same animal.
• 6:40
  Joe Zietsman: The acceleration is something that you've probably never experienced before.
• 6:43
  Joe Zietsman: So that's something that people tend to get used to.
• 6:46
  Joe Zietsman: There's basically no noise.
• 6:47
  Joe Zietsman: So when you start this vehicle, it's nothing to listen at.
• 6:50
  Joe Zietsman: And that's a very important health issue as well with zero noise.
• 6:54
  Joe Zietsman: So people underestimate the importance of that.
• 6:58
  Joe Zietsman: And then also you get the opportunity to experience other things and you need to figure out where you charge and how you charge, and when.
• 7:05
  Joe Zietsman: So those are things that are a total different dimension, and as people are getting more used to this, we're also seeing more and more people getting to purchase electric vehicles.
• 7:16
  Joe Zietsman: Two other points I want to make.
• 7:18
  Joe Zietsman: People are becoming more and more environmentally conscious because we see the impacts of vehicle emissions.
• 7:24
  Joe Zietsman: We're seeing the impacts of climate change.
• 7:27
  Joe Zietsman: But I think folks are also beginning to see the economic benefits of driving these vehicles.
• 7:32
  Joe Zietsman: If you drive them a lot, you could actually save money over the long term.
• 7:36
  Joe Zietsman: So I think that trend is happening and it's happening fast, probably faster than some people expected.
• 7:42
  Bernie Fette: Well, and you mentioned that the industry is fully behind this.
• 7:45
  Bernie Fette: I think that they're certainly not only just saying that.
• 7:49
  Bernie Fette: They're putting their money where their mouths are.
• 7:52
  Bernie Fette: From what I see, General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen collectively planning to spend close to$80 billion-- billion with a B-- on electric vehicle development in the next five years?
• 8:07
  Bernie Fette: Do I have that right?
• 8:08
  Joe Zietsman: I think you absolutely do.
• 8:09
  Joe Zietsman: And that's not the only manufacturer that does that.
• 8:12
  Joe Zietsman: And I think that comes back to the targets they're setting.
• 8:14
  Joe Zietsman: A lot of them are saying by 2030 or by 2035, we're going to be either fully electric, like Volvo was saying about trucks and some other companies.
• 8:25
  Joe Zietsman: So to meet those targets, those kind of investment numbers need to be behind it.
• 8:30
  Bernie Fette: As transportation transformations go, this one seems to be moving more slowly than some others that we've seen in recent memory.
• 8:39
  Bernie Fette: I'm wondering if you think that that's a good thing.
• 8:42
  Bernie Fette: If we take e-scooters, for instance, those appeared in a lot of cities literally overnight, leaving the local authorities very much caught off guard and wondering,"okay, now what do we do?" I'm wondering if you think that the slower adoption of electric cars might give us all the opportunity to think things through more.
• 9:02
  Ann Xu: I would actually like to argue that it's not necessarily a fair comparison between electric cars and electric scooters, right?
• 9:10
  Bernie Fette: Okay.
• 9:10
  Ann Xu: If you think about the coverage, I mean, pretty much every household has at least one car in the United States.
• 9:19
  Ann Xu: The people that can, or the type of patterns that can support e-scooters is a much smaller portion.
• 9:27
  Ann Xu: Not every household can use an e-scooter.
• 9:30
  Ann Xu: So, you know, e-scooters are a lot more concentrated in terms of applications, right?
• 9:36
  Ann Xu: In dense urban areas.
• 9:38
  Ann Xu: But electric cars is pretty much is a transformation that touches every family, every individual in the country.
• 9:46
  Ann Xu: But I agree with you though, Bernie, what you said about, you know, the lead time for the government to react.
• 9:54
  Ann Xu: Yes.
• 9:55
  Ann Xu: The government probably has a little bit more time with electric cars than compared to electric scooters to react.
• 10:01
  Ann Xu: But I think the time is now.
• 10:03
  Ann Xu: The government also cannot wait any longer.
• 10:06
  Ann Xu: There are many issues, there are many policy questions to address.
• 10:12
  Ann Xu: And going back actually to your previous question about adoption-- as with any technology adoption, it's pretty much a hockey stick pattern.
• 10:22
  Ann Xu: So a hockey stick pattern is just like a hockey stick, where the adoption goes kind of flat at the bottom at the very beginning, right?
• 10:30
  Ann Xu: And then all of a sudden it reaches an inflection point and it goes straight up.
• 10:36
  Ann Xu: Some fellow researchers and I, we published papers and mathematically showed that phenomenon with electric vehicles were still sort of at the flat part of the hockey stick with electric cars.
• 10:51
  Ann Xu: But as you just now mentioned, you see a lot more electric vehicles, the adoption is picking up.
• 10:58
  Ann Xu: I think we're getting to the inflection point.
• 11:01
  Ann Xu: And part of the reason why we're still seeing that the numbers are more, I think it has to do with the fact that there is a lag with data in registration numbers, right?
• 11:11
  Ann Xu: So we've got to get ahead of the curve here because once it reaches the inflection point, we've shown that if all the automakers deliver what they say they're going to deliver in terms of electric car penetration market share around 2030, the vehicle turnover every year on year, there will be 5 percent more of the total light-duty vehicle population that will become electric.
• 11:44
  Ann Xu: For example, to put this in perspective, in Houston there are 5 million light duty vehicles.
• 11:49
  Ann Xu: Five percent of that.
• 11:52
  Ann Xu: And that's 5 percent every year that's more.
• 11:55
  Ann Xu: Over a period of time, hundreds of thousands of vehicles will become electric in the general vehicle population.
• 12:04
  Ann Xu: And that has huge implications on the power grid, on renewables, a lot of other things, and the government needs to be ready for that.
• 12:15
  Bernie Fette: And I suppose that's what you were referring to a minute ago when you talked about the policy questions that governments will have to face, and you mentioned the power grid for one.
• 12:24
  Bernie Fette: What are the implications there?
• 12:28
  Bernie Fette: And I actually have a couple of others I was going to ask you about, because in a way, at least on the surface in, in one way, this would appear to some people to be a trade-off.
• 12:39
  Bernie Fette: And at the risk of oversimplifying here, but with more electric cars, we use less oil and gasoline.
• 12:44
  Bernie Fette: But we also use more electricity, which has to be generated somehow somewhere.
• 12:51
  Bernie Fette: And I wonder if it's fair to say that in some ways, this is a trade-off, because if the electricity has to come from a generating plant that runs on fossil fuels, for instance, isn't this just a question of where the emissions come from?
• 13:07
  Bernie Fette: A tailpipe or a power plant?
• 13:10
  Ann Xu: I am so glad you asked that question.
• 13:11
  Ann Xu: So as we are in Texas, I actually won't talk about Texas first.
• 13:17
  Ann Xu: So yes, the power generation, the emissions that are come from power generation has been a research topic and has been a hotly debated question for probably two decades now.
• 13:29
  Ann Xu: You know, as a typical researcher would say, and I will say it now, it does depend on the dynamics of the grid.
• 13:37
  Ann Xu: So let's talk specifics about the ERCOT grid.
• 13:40
  Ann Xu: That is most of Texas is in the footprint of ERCOT.
• 13:47
  Ann Xu: And we recently between TTI and our collaborators at the Smart Grid Center over at the university, we actually have d one very detailed d ynamic simulation of the grid, how it would interact with t he EV load.
• 14:03
  Ann Xu: And we actually showed that EV charging can reduce the emissions from the grid, even on a hot summer day when wind is low.
• 14:14
  Ann Xu: You know, I won't bore you with all the gory details of power grid simulation, but it has a lot to do with the amount of wind that is already present in our grid.
• 14:26
  Ann Xu: And the fact that coals a re, are already so much more expensive than natural gas and natural gas is still a fossil fuel.
• 14:35
  Ann Xu: It is much more efficient than coal.
• 14:38
  Bernie Fette: And cleaner as well.
• 14:39
  Ann Xu: Yeah, a lot cleaner.
• 14:41
  Ann Xu: So overall EV charging, even though it's more load, it actually, when you add that load to the grid, the overall grid produces less emissions, both in terms of greenhouse gases and NOx, oxides of nitrogen.
• 14:57
  Ann Xu: That's a precursor to ozone.
• 15:00
  Bernie Fette: And the question about the grid has another layer to it, of course, when we mention the context of a debilitating freeze that cripples the state as we experienced just several months ago.
• 15:13
  Ann Xu: Well, first of all, let's not forget that when the grid goes down, you can't pump gas either.
• 15:18
  Bernie Fette: Right.
• 15:18
  Ann Xu: There actually was quite a viral video right after the ice storm, that someone with a hybrid truck with a big battery pack, that person powered his house and was able to make coffee when everybody else didn't even have lights...
• 15:37
  Bernie Fette: Wow.
• 15:37
  Ann Xu: ...
• 15:37
  Ann Xu: using the battery from his truck.
• 15:40
  Ann Xu: Right?
• 15:41
  Ann Xu: So you imagine now, if you have a charged electric truck in your garage, you can heat up and, you know, get warm in your truck without breathing in all the bad air as you would with a gasoline or diesel.
• 15:55
  Bernie Fette: And you're doing so off the grid.
• 15:56
  Ann Xu: Yeah.
• 15:56
  Bernie Fette: Maybe this isn't a fair question, but if you had to identify what, what the two of you thought was the most important research priority that we should be pursuing related to electric cars, what do you think that that would be?
• 16:13
  Joe Zietsman: What is the true operational conditions and what do these vehicles actually do in terms of performance?
• 16:23
  Joe Zietsman: And when I say performance, I'm more talking about range, carrying a load, those kinds of questions under these various conditions.
• 16:32
  Joe Zietsman: I think at the moment, it's just a big question mark.
• 16:36
  Joe Zietsman: To Bernie's point about, is this roll-out slow and does it give us a chance to catch our breaths and think about it a little bit.
• 16:43
  Joe Zietsman: So I'll talk about it from the perspective of a researcher.
• 16:47
  Joe Zietsman: To be honest with you, I think it does give us a little bit of an opportunity to think about what are all these key questions that we need to answer.
• 16:55
  Joe Zietsman: And there are lots of questions and a lot of things that we don't even know yet.
• 16:59
  Joe Zietsman: People are trying to get used to electric vehicles.
• 17:03
  Joe Zietsman: You know, there's a range that's kind of quoted by the vehicle manufacturer and they say, can breach X range, but what happens under cold temperature or when it's extremely hot, when you need to also keep the cabin comfortable.
• 17:19
  Joe Zietsman: And we know that batteries deplete much quicker under cold temperature.
• 17:22
  Joe Zietsman: So we don't know what the true range is going to be under those conditions.
• 17:26
  Joe Zietsman: What about if you drive at a high speed or if you climb some hills and you do a different drive cycle than just the flat road, under 75 degrees?
• 17:36
  Joe Zietsman: And what happens if you tow a trailer or something?
• 17:39
  Joe Zietsman: So those are all fascinating questions.
• 17:41
  Joe Zietsman: And fortunately here at TTI, we are very well positioned to answer those questions.
• 17:47
  Joe Zietsman: In our collaboration with electrical, and computer engineering, we basically bring transportation expertise together with, um, the electric side, the grid side, and we are able to develop sophisticated models in combination that never existed before.
• 18:03
  Joe Zietsman: And we're also in the process now of expanding our emissions testing capabilities.
• 18:08
  Joe Zietsman: So EERF, which stands for Environment and Emissions Research Facility, is going to get expanded to become an electric vehicle testing facility.
• 18:18
  Joe Zietsman: And we're very excited about that.
• 18:19
  Joe Zietsman: So one thing we are doing in that environmental test chamber is to increase its cooling capabilities so that we can reach minus 40 C and sustain it.
• 18:29
  Joe Zietsman: And the significance of that is there will be cases where batteries will be exposed to those kinds of temperatures.
• 18:35
  Joe Zietsman: And we need to know what happens in those extreme conditions.
• 18:38
  Joe Zietsman: Those are the kinds of things that we are getting ready here at TTI, so we can start answering some of these questions.
• 18:44
  Joe Zietsman: And I think it will color in a picture that the consumers will actually be benefiting from and knowing how these vehicles can and should be driven, what to expect.
• 18:55
  Joe Zietsman: And that will also help the manufacturers to improve in certain areas that are critical.
• 19:01
  Bernie Fette: What do you think, Ann?
• 19:03
  Ann Xu: I am heading up the technology side of our research center.
• 19:07
  Ann Xu: So I naturally have more of a bent on technology transfer and the practical implications.
• 19:14
  Ann Xu: I think for vehicle electrification, the biggest and most pressing question right now is actually charging infrastructure.
• 19:24
  Ann Xu: And how do we deploy that in a way to enable, to support the fast transition that we just talked about.
• 19:33
  Ann Xu: And that is not just in terms of light-duty vehicles.
• 19:36
  Ann Xu: That is actually more pressing when it comes to trucks and buses, actually.
• 19:42
  Bernie Fette: And you're talking about big trucks, semi-trucks?
• 19:45
  Ann Xu: Yeah.
• 19:45
  Ann Xu: Because the technology is already there where there are certain applications, certain trucks.
• 19:51
  Ann Xu: Not necessarily the long-haul trucks.
• 19:54
  Ann Xu: I think there's the consensus is that the technology has a ways to go before you can support long haul-applications, but things like drayage, things like refuse trucks, trash trucks, you know, those are feasible, if we can figure out how to build the charging infrastructure and how to integrate it with a grid.
• 20:17
  Bernie Fette: That infrastructure that we all use is paid for now, mostly by the motor fuels tax.
• 20:24
  Bernie Fette: But if the car that you drive doesn't run on gas or diesel, you don't pay that tax.
• 20:30
  Bernie Fette: We talked a little about that with Brianne Glover, our chief economist here, a few months ago about how that can create an imbalance.
• 20:39
  Bernie Fette: When you have a growing number of vehicles that aren't paying that tax, the value of that tax also shrinking because of inflation and fuel efficiency.
• 20:48
  Bernie Fette: Do you have any thoughts on how we solve that particular puzzle going forward?
• 20:52
  Joe Zietsman: I think, Bernie, we've seen that the gas tax has been flat forever.
• 20:56
  Joe Zietsman: So when it's inadequate in terms of collecting enough funds to pay for transportation infrastructure and, and the operation of it.
• 21:05
  Joe Zietsman: So clearly there's an issue there already.
• 21:07
  Joe Zietsman: And if you put on top of that more fuel-efficient vehicles and eventually vehicles using zero fuel like electric vehicles, it would just make that specific problem even bigger.
• 21:18
  Joe Zietsman: So I think obviously we need to find a different way of getting road users to pay for, uh, what they use; some form of user-based fee or something along those lines.
• 21:30
  Joe Zietsman: And when we do that, we need to make it equitable in the sense that should.
• 21:34
  Joe Zietsman: An electric vehicle takes up the same space as a regular internal combustion vehicle.
• 21:40
  Joe Zietsman: So that's true and everybody accepts that.
• 21:43
  Joe Zietsman: It causes congestion.
• 21:43
  Joe Zietsman: Some research has shown that it's a little bit safer from the vantage point that if you're involved in a crash, it can protect the passengers better.
• 21:53
  Joe Zietsman: But some of the other negative externalities that we really are concerned about, and in this center that we have at TTI-- CARTEEH-- we are really looking at the intersection between health and transportation.
• 22:06
  Joe Zietsman: So when I talk about health, I'm also talking about vehicle emissions, noise and aspects like that, that can really cause health problems.
• 22:14
  Joe Zietsman: So I think when we look at how folks should pay, depending on what vehicles they drive, um, all those factors should be included as well.
• 22:21
  Joe Zietsman: So I think there's a proper analysis that should be done to look at the total health impacts and maybe the externalities associated with these different vehicle types and do a true cost assessment.
• 22:33
  Joe Zietsman: And I think you'll find that because noise is close to zero for electric vehicles, the emissions are lower, these vehicles will end up paying less if we're looking at an equitable distribution in terms of who should pay.
• 22:47
  Bernie Fette: Ann?
• 22:48
  Ann Xu: You know, we were talking about policy questions.
• 22:51
  Ann Xu: This is another policy question, and I think it's very relevant, but I don't think it's fair to say that electric vehicles, drivers don't pay, right?
• 23:01
  Ann Xu: Most places, most jurisdictions already established a user fee or registration fee for electric vehicles.
• 23:08
  Ann Xu: I think this is an issue that was discussed during the legislative session this past summer too, here in Texas; you know, how to set that kind of fee in an equitable manner is definitely a very relevant question.
• 23:23
  Bernie Fette: With the backgrounds and training that you both have, I'm guessing that you could have taken a number of different career paths, but you chose this one.
• 23:32
  Bernie Fette: What motivates you to do what you do?
• 23:36
  Joe Zietsman: Yeah, I'll start.
• 23:37
  Joe Zietsman: So I did my Ph.D.
• 23:40
  Joe Zietsman: In sustainable transportation in the Civil Engineering Department.
• 23:43
  Joe Zietsman: So it was in the late nineties and it was a topic that was very, very new, hardly anybody knew what that was.
• 23:52
  Joe Zietsman: And the reason why I picked up on that topic was just because I could tell that people were not focused on the environment.
• 23:59
  Joe Zietsman: They were not focused on what transportation could potentially cause on the one side.
• 24:05
  Joe Zietsman: And then the other side, what are the potential benefits of transportation?
• 24:08
  Joe Zietsman: And I ended up working here at TTI in Texas, and it felt like the area that I was working in over the past 20-plus years has always been very much forward-looking in the state of Texas because we are kind of working on cutting edge issues that are unique and different to what the general state could potentially be looking at at any given time.
• 24:33
  Joe Zietsman: So we were looking at issues of vehicle emissions.
• 24:37
  Joe Zietsman: We were looking at other environmental concerns that were new and different.
• 24:43
  Joe Zietsman: And I personally always felt like it's a very good fit to be working in these innovative areas relative to what's going on in Texas and actually be able to have some impact and have some influence and see how our research can impact decision-making.
• 25:01
  Joe Zietsman: And I always felt like TTI is a perfect fit.
• 25:04
  Joe Zietsman: We are totally independent third-party researchers.
• 25:08
  Joe Zietsman: We just want to work with the fact, see what it tells us, and then report it, hopefully that will then impact how decisions are being made.
• 25:16
  Joe Zietsman: And then when this whole notion of bringing in health to transportation became an issue, it was really fantastic to be able to lead a center that's focused on health and transportation, which basically cuts across everything that we've been talking about because in the end of the day, it is about the health of the general public.
• 25:36
  Joe Zietsman: So it's just an amazing experience and amazing opportunity to be working in that space and to feel that I can make a difference on a daily basis.
• 25:46
  Bernie Fette: How about you, Ann?
• 25:46
  Bernie Fette: What makes you get up every day and come to work?
• 25:48
  Ann Xu: This is actually a very opportune time for me to answer this question, Bernie, because my career path is changing in the sense that we've done a lot of research at TTI on electric vehicles and under the Center for Advancing Research in Transportation, Emissions, Energy and Health-- CARTEEH-- as Joe mentioned.
• 26:11
  Ann Xu: And so we have disclosed an invention and have spun out a company based on the technology we developed under the research center.
• 26:22
  Ann Xu: So I am now the CEO of the company and the company just raised venture funding.
• 26:27
  Bernie Fette: Congratulations!
• 26:27
  Ann Xu: Thank you.
• 26:30
  Ann Xu: Thank you.
• 26:31
  Ann Xu: But I, I came into research because I wanted to work on something meaningful.
• 26:37
  Ann Xu: My career path is a bit different though, because after a few years working at Georgia Tech, I went to the U.
• 26:45
  Ann Xu: S.
• 26:45
  Ann Xu: Department of Energy, worked at this agency called the Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy, ARPAE, and there, the focus of that agency was innovation and commercialization.
• 26:57
  Ann Xu: So taking research and technology to a bigger scale and the motto there is"if it works, will it matter?" So I drank the Kool-Aid there and took it with me when I came to TTI.
• 27:12
  Ann Xu: And I made sure that what we were working on at CARTEEH was something that will matter.
• 27:19
  Ann Xu: And we've got product in the market based on the technology we developed here for supporting Houston in developing its regional infrastructure strategy for electrification.
• 27:31
  Ann Xu: So we're taking it to, or practical impacts right here in Texas, and now we're getting venture funding.
• 27:37
  Ann Xu: So I definitely feel like every day I get up when I get up is a new ball game and I love every bit of it.
• 27:45
  Ann Xu: And I know that everything we do makes a big difference here in Texas and beyond the entire country and eventually globally.
• 27:57
  Bernie Fette: Is there anything else that you'd like for us to think about in closing?
• 28:02
  Ann Xu: I would like to just emphasize that this whole discussion about electric vehicles, you know, for years it's been an environmental topic, right?
• 28:12
  Ann Xu: It's a, it's a green type of topic.
• 28:14
  Ann Xu: But think about just over the past year, how much has changed right here in Texas, right?
• 28:21
  Ann Xu: Tesla moving to eastern Austin, building a gigafactory there.
• 28:25
  Ann Xu: Think about all the new jobs, clean energy, clean transportation jobs that our state will have.
• 28:34
  Ann Xu: I do think that there is a huge economic opportunity here too.
• 28:39
  Ann Xu: And that's something that is worth us looking into as researchers, too.
• 28:45
  Joe Zietsman: Something I would like to add is in the CARTEEH center, we're establishing what we call a clean transportation, collaborative, where we're putting stakeholders together that deal with questions like we talked about in terms of operations, the grid, the connection with the grid, what should be the next technology, et cetera, et cetera.
• 29:05
  Joe Zietsman: So these manufacturers, the fleets, the grid folks, the transit authorities, the MPOs, the cities, they all have questions.
• 29:14
  Joe Zietsman: So we're putting this big collaborative together of stakeholders and folks are welcome to reach out and join the collaborative and, and come and tell us what your needs and your expectations are.
• 29:26
  Joe Zietsman: And what are your concerns?
• 29:27
  Joe Zietsman: Because after all, we are a research Institute and we try to answer these questions objectively like a third-party broker.
• 29:34
  Joe Zietsman: So we would be very excited to, to have folks visit with us and talk about these issues.
• 29:40
  Joe Zietsman: So we can understand the questions better, so that we can actually answer them better, and be a better partner in this whole process.
• 29:47
  Bernie Fette: How about let's close with a prediction?
• 29:50
  Bernie Fette: I'm going to put you both on the spot.
• 29:52
  Bernie Fette: How many years before half of the vehicle fleet is electric?
• 30:01
  Ann Xu: Well, as Yogi Berra said, predictions are hard, especially the ones concerning the future.
• 30:07
  Ann Xu: But, this is actually something that we have numbers to back up.
• 30:13
  Ann Xu: So if the manufacturers follow through with their commitments, then we will be seeing around 50 percent of the entire vehicle population, at least the light-duty vehicle population, becoming electric around 2045.
• 30:28
  Ann Xu: And that's actually pure mathematics.
• 30:30
  Ann Xu: That's just given the vehicle turnover rate of household decisions.
• 30:33
  Bernie Fette: Joe?
• 30:37
  Joe Zietsman: I was going to say 2050, but, um, I think Ann's mathematics and modeling with her hockey stick could be more accurate, but I'll go with 2050.
• 30:47
  Joe Zietsman: You know, that incorporates the fleet turnover rate because you don't just throw your vehicle away.
• 30:54
  Joe Zietsman: It stays on the road.
• 30:55
  Joe Zietsman: So considering that as well, but this tremendous momentum behind it would probably make us hit those numbers.
• 31:03
  Bernie Fette: This has really been fascinating.
• 31:04
  Bernie Fette: This has been fun to talk to you both about this topic.
• 31:07
  Bernie Fette: So Ann, Joe, thank you very much for the work that you do.
• 31:10
  Bernie Fette: Thank you for sharing your knowledge and insight with us.
• 31:14
  Joe Zietsman: Thank you, Bernie.
• 31:14
  Joe Zietsman: It was a pleasure.
• 31:16
  Ann Xu: Thank you, Bernie.
• 31:17
  Ann Xu: This was a lot of fun.
• 31:20
  Bernie Fette: Electric cars made their first appearance about a century ago.
• 31:24
  Bernie Fette: They did not last long, but a lot has changed since then.
• 31:29
  Bernie Fette: This time around, automakers are all-in and consumers are jumping on an ever-more crowded bandwagon.
• 31:37
  Bernie Fette: Battery-powered vehicles are transforming the roadway landscape and promising to remake the auto industry within the next decade.
• 31:45
  Bernie Fette: The transformation is likely to be complex and there's a lot that we don't yet know.
• 31:49
  Bernie Fette: What we do know is that the way that we think about getting around each day is likely to change as well.
• 31:58
  Bernie Fette: Thanks for listening.
• 31:59
  Bernie Fette: We hope you'll be back next time.
• 32:02
  Bernie Fette: TTI Senior Research Scientist Allan Rutter will be with us to continue our discussion of electric vehicles, with a focus on how freight and big trucks fit into the picture.
• 32:14
  Bernie Fette: Thinking Transportation is a production of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, a member of the Texas A&M University System.
• 32:20
  Bernie Fette: The show is edited and produced by Chris Pourteau.
• 32:26
  Bernie Fette: I'm your writer and host, Bernie Fette.
• 32:30
  Bernie Fette: Thanks again for listening.
• 32:31
  Bernie Fette: We'll see you next time.