Latest / Pod Save America / "Will Trump '24 Come Too Soon?"

Transcript

"Will Trump '24 Come Too Soon?" · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:23
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:24
Speaker 1: On today's show, Donald Trump contemplates a pre-midterm presidential announcement.
0:28
Speaker 1: Joe Biden tries to escape a pre-midterm presidential rut. And
0:32
Speaker 1: with November just four months away, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake
0:35
Speaker 1: joins to talk about where the country is on abortion, inflation,
0:39
Speaker 1: both parties, and more. Before we start, quick word from
0:43
Speaker 1: our friends at Vote Save America. We are all furious
0:46
Speaker 1: about the radical right-wing Supreme Court's decision to end the
0:50
Speaker 1: constitutional right to an abortion in America. So let's do
0:53
Speaker 1: something about it. From directly supporting patients who need abortions
0:57
Speaker 1: right now to electing pro-choice candidates in 2022 and building
1:01
Speaker 1: a progressive majority over the long term, you can find
1:04
Speaker 1: everything you need to fight back in our Fuck Bans
1:07
Speaker 1: action plan at votesaveamerica.com slash row. Also, a huge thank
1:13
Speaker 1: you to everyone who's already donated a total of more
1:16
Speaker 1: than a million dollars to these causes, including the thousands
1:19
Speaker 1: of you who have signed up to volunteer today. for
1:22
Speaker 1: the midterms just since the decision came down. Thank you. Also,
1:27
Speaker 1: if you have a chance, head over to the Crooked Store.
1:29
Speaker 1: We are having a huge summer sale on all your
1:31
Speaker 1: favorite merch. Now through Friday the 8th, which is, I guess, tomorrow,
1:36
Speaker 1: you can take 15% off site-wide and up to 90%
1:39
Speaker 1: off new sale items. This is our last summer sale,
1:41
Speaker 1: so if you get your eye on something, now's the
1:43
Speaker 1: time to nab it before it's gone for good. As always,
1:47
Speaker 1: the Crooked Store donates a portion of every order to VoteRiders,
1:50
Speaker 1: a nonprofit working towards ending voter suppression via voter ID, education,
1:54
Speaker 1: and assistance. Go to crooked.com slash store to check it out.
2:00
Speaker 1: All right, Dan, we're back from the break. And we
2:02
Speaker 1: got some news that happened over the break. I tried
2:04
Speaker 1: not to pay too much attention to the news over
2:07
Speaker 1: the July 4th break. But I did see the story
2:10
Speaker 1: as I was leaving for vacation that caught my eye
2:13
Speaker 1: about our friend Donald Trump. Yeah. So we are fast
2:17
Speaker 1: approaching midterm madness, but we're going to spend today talking
2:19
Speaker 1: about the two current 2024 frontrunners who will almost certainly
2:23
Speaker 1: affect this November's elections. One former president who may be
2:27
Speaker 1: on the cusp of announcing again, and one current president
2:29
Speaker 1: whose tumbling approval rating is hovering close to his predecessor.
2:33
Speaker 1: That predecessor, Donald J. Trump, has, according to a New
2:37
Speaker 1: York Times piece from over the weekend, reportedly, quote, surprised
2:40
Speaker 1: some advisors by saying he might declare his candidacy on
2:44
Speaker 1: social media as without warning, even his own team and
2:48
Speaker 1: aides are scrambling to build out basic campaign infrastructure in
2:52
Speaker 1: time for an announcement as early as this month. Dan,
2:57
Speaker 1: what do we know about why Trump may want to
2:59
Speaker 1: do this other than the Occam's razor explanation that he's
3:01
Speaker 1: a deranged sociopath driven by a mixture of boredom, narcissism,
3:06
Speaker 1: and vengeance?
3:09
Speaker 2: Well, I think you've You nailed it. That's it. No notes.
3:13
Speaker 2: You got it. Go to an ad break. We got it.
3:16
Speaker 1: We don't have to scratch much deeper than that.
3:20
Speaker 2: Well, since we do have time to fill here, I
3:22
Speaker 2: will offer some additional emotions, which you did not include
3:25
Speaker 2: in your list. One is weakness, and the other is insecurity.
3:29
Speaker 2: I think that what is driving this is that Donald
3:31
Speaker 2: Trump is sitting in Mar-a-Lago, stewing in his own juices,
3:35
Speaker 2: watching the January 6th hearings sort of portray him to
3:39
Speaker 2: be the complete and utter deranged lunatic that he is.
3:43
Speaker 2: He's sitting in Florida watching Ron DeSantis become sort of
3:46
Speaker 2: the bell of the Republican ball.
3:48
Speaker 1: In his own backyard.
3:50
Speaker 2: Right before his eyes, right? He sees these polls that show,
3:54
Speaker 2: depending on which one you look at, maybe Ron DeSantis
3:56
Speaker 2: is gaining, he's becoming an alternative. There are a lot
3:58
Speaker 2: of people talking up Ron DeSantis. And I think Trump,
4:01
Speaker 2: for all of his idiocy, and much of the preceding
4:04
Speaker 2: paragraph you read is exhibit A of that idiocy, He
4:08
Speaker 2: does have an instinct for raw political power, how you
4:13
Speaker 2: get it, how you use it, whether or not you're
4:17
Speaker 2: losing it. Not power for the sake of doing something,
4:19
Speaker 2: but just power for the sake of having it. I
4:20
Speaker 2: think he can probably sense something slipping from him, and
4:25
Speaker 2: that if he doesn't reassert his dominance on the Republican Party,
4:29
Speaker 2: once again become the center of discussion on his terms,
4:32
Speaker 2: not Liz Cheney and Cassidy Hutchinson's terms, he– you know,
4:36
Speaker 2: could be, he, you know, he can see, you know,
4:38
Speaker 2: he could maybe lose this. And so I think that
4:41
Speaker 2: is what is driving the speculation, causing him to vent
4:44
Speaker 2: to aides. We, you know, all the caveats here that
4:47
Speaker 2: Trump says lots of things. He says those things to
4:49
Speaker 2: his aides, his aides that proceed to leak them to reporters.
4:52
Speaker 2: And oftentimes those things do not come to pass. But
4:56
Speaker 2: I think those are at least that is what is
4:57
Speaker 2: driving this desire of his to announce for president in 2022.
5:04
Speaker 1: You think maybe his red checkmarked truths aren't traveling as
5:08
Speaker 1: far as he thought they would?
5:09
Speaker 2: Well, we know that in a lot of reporting, we
5:11
Speaker 2: know that that is one of his great frustrations is
5:13
Speaker 2: that his teeny tiny little social media company is not
5:18
Speaker 2: getting the attention to which he has become accustomed on
5:21
Speaker 2: the other social media platforms that have, at least up
5:23
Speaker 2: until now, banned him. I do think he might think
5:27
Speaker 2: that were he to announce for president, he might get
5:30
Speaker 2: back on other platforms, get more attention. He definitely feels
5:35
Speaker 2: like he's struggling to get his statements out there, either
5:38
Speaker 2: via truth, retruth, or really poorly edited, very long written statement,
5:45
Speaker 2: which I presume is faxed to people or something.
5:49
Speaker 1: Especially if Elon closes the deal, right? Then he can
5:52
Speaker 1: hop right back on Twitter and go from his red
5:55
Speaker 1: check to his blue check, and then he's off to
5:57
Speaker 1: the races.
5:58
Speaker 2: I'd be really interested to see, I mean, it's a
5:59
Speaker 2: total side note and probably a topic for offline, but
6:02
Speaker 2: I'd be very interested to see what the conversation at
6:04
Speaker 2: Twitter would be pre-closing of the deal if Trump were
6:08
Speaker 2: to announce for president, knowing what the likely future owner
6:12
Speaker 2: is going to do. It just becomes much harder to–
6:16
Speaker 2: it shouldn't be harder, but you can see the public
6:18
Speaker 2: conversation shifting around his bans and suspensions at Facebook, Twitter,
6:22
Speaker 2: et cetera, if he is an active candidate for president. Yeah.
6:26
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the fundamental problem that kicking him
6:29
Speaker 1: off Twitter doesn't solve, has never solved, is that the
6:32
Speaker 1: Republican Party is still one of two major political parties
6:35
Speaker 1: in America, and he has largely captured a big chunk,
6:40
Speaker 1: if not almost all of the Republican Party. And therefore,
6:44
Speaker 1: because it is still treated as a legitimate political institution
6:48
Speaker 1: in America, if he gets the nomination, then he gets
6:51
Speaker 1: all the coverage that comes with that. And that's what
6:54
Speaker 1: Twitter would face.
6:55
Speaker 2: Can I offer an alternative idea here?
6:57
Speaker 3: Sure.
6:58
Speaker 2: What if Twitter let Trump back on to kick the
7:00
Speaker 2: rest of us off?
7:03
Speaker 1: I mean, again, 100% support.
7:05
Speaker 2: Problem solved. Yes, problem solved.
7:07
Speaker 1: You know where my position is. Elon Musk buys Twitter
7:09
Speaker 1: and shuts it down. And I am supportive of that.
7:12
Speaker 2: And you're going to tweet your feelings about that until
7:15
Speaker 2: it happens.
7:16
Speaker 1: I am on the record. Can you talk about the
7:18
Speaker 1: legal and financial implications of Trump deciding to run now
7:22
Speaker 1: instead of later? Then we can do the politics. But
7:25
Speaker 1: just the legal and financial implications first.
7:28
Speaker 2: It would be truly one of the stupidest decisions any
7:31
Speaker 2: presidential candidate has ever made.
7:34
Speaker 1: So let me explain. Which does not foreclose the possibility.
7:37
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no. It may even suggest that it's
7:40
Speaker 2: more likely it will happen. But right now, Trump has
7:43
Speaker 2: about $ 100 million parked in a super PAC. He can
7:47
Speaker 2: spend that money on political travel. He could spend it
7:49
Speaker 2: on ads promoting other candidates. He could spend it on
7:51
Speaker 2: staff polling. Based on today's FEC, he could probably spend
7:56
Speaker 2: it on shrimp cocktail. He could spend it on almost anything, right?
7:59
Speaker 2: And he– Were he to announce– and any person, right?
8:04
Speaker 2: We'll take Peter Thiel as an example, can write– Peter
8:07
Speaker 2: Thiel could write a $ 100 million check to that super PAC.
8:10
Speaker 2: And after Trump spent that money, he could write another
8:12
Speaker 2: $ 100 million check. Were Trump to announce for president, between
8:16
Speaker 2: the day he announces and the Republican convention in 2024,
8:21
Speaker 2: Peter Thiel or any other American walking this planet can
8:24
Speaker 2: give Donald Trump a total of $ 2, 900. $ 2, 900. If they
8:29
Speaker 2: give him any more money after that, he cannot spend
8:32
Speaker 2: that money until he officially becomes the Republican nominee. So
8:36
Speaker 2: even though he has a huge grassroots fundraising army, he
8:39
Speaker 2: would basically put himself at a massive, massive financial disadvantage.
8:44
Speaker 2: Candidates often really try to wait as long as possible
8:47
Speaker 2: to officially announce their presidential campaign because they want to
8:51
Speaker 2: shorten the clock if they think they're going to be
8:53
Speaker 2: the nominee between the day they announce and the convention
8:57
Speaker 2: when they can then start spending what are called general
8:59
Speaker 2: election funds. You get to write two checks, one for
9:01
Speaker 2: the primary at $ 2, 800, one for the general at $ 2, 800.
9:04
Speaker 2: There are some complications around other things, but that's the
9:07
Speaker 2: basic gist of it. So he would basically be cutting
9:09
Speaker 2: off his nose despite his face financially to do that.
9:12
Speaker 2: And if he were to be involved in a protracted primary,
9:17
Speaker 2: could have real trouble having enough money to spend against
9:20
Speaker 2: someone who has waited longer and spends their primary money
9:24
Speaker 2: in 2023 and early 2024 instead of in 2022.
9:28
Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out how he thinks he can
9:31
Speaker 1: get around this by doing it earlier or what he
9:33
Speaker 1: thinks about these potential consequences, which all I can come
9:37
Speaker 1: up with is that he thinks that, you know, he'll
9:40
Speaker 1: get enough media coverage that he won't have to do
9:43
Speaker 1: much else besides sit for interviews. And then if he
9:45
Speaker 1: wants to go do a rally, he charges everyone who
9:48
Speaker 1: comes to the rally 10, 20, 25 bucks a head.
9:52
Speaker 1: And he just does the sort of grassroots fundraising strategy.
9:55
Speaker 1: So he gets his rallies, he gets his interviews, and
9:57
Speaker 1: then he doesn't have to spend much more money until
9:58
Speaker 1: the race really heats up.
10:00
Speaker 2: I think that is possible. Another theory he could have
10:03
Speaker 2: is that the Federal Elections Commission, which is in charge
10:05
Speaker 2: of enforcing said laws, has the force and power of
10:08
Speaker 2: an amoeba made out of butter. I think there is
10:14
Speaker 2: a way to do it where you would basically– so
10:20
Speaker 2: far in the gray areas of the law that he
10:23
Speaker 2: would sort of offload much of his staff in polling
10:27
Speaker 2: to a super PAC and then would just sort of
10:30
Speaker 2: raise money for himself. It's not like he's going to
10:33
Speaker 2: run ads now or things like that. And essentially you
10:37
Speaker 2: see a world in which state parties pay for the
10:39
Speaker 2: rallies in 2022 when he's campaigning for other people. Now
10:44
Speaker 2: that gets more complicated as a presidential candidate because he
10:46
Speaker 2: would have to offset some of those costs, but yeah,
10:50
Speaker 2: you just break the law. I mean, our campaign finances
10:53
Speaker 2: are a joke.
10:54
Speaker 1: Trump doesn't live in the gray side of the law.
10:56
Speaker 1: Trump lives in the lawless side of the law.
10:58
Speaker 2: Well, that's how fucking shitty our campaign finance laws are,
11:01
Speaker 2: is that even Donald Trump would have to work hard
11:04
Speaker 2: to break them.
11:05
Speaker 1: Sorry. So let's talk about, what do you think about
11:07
Speaker 1: the political implications of Trump deciding to run now? Pros
11:11
Speaker 1: and cons.
11:12
Speaker 2: For Donald Trump or for Democrats?
11:14
Speaker 1: For Donald Trump. Let's start for Donald Trump.
11:17
Speaker 2: Well, for Donald Trump, I think the pros would be
11:20
Speaker 2: he would just short circuit a conversation that is happening
11:25
Speaker 2: at the elite levels of the party about whether he
11:27
Speaker 2: is the best person to run. And he would get
11:29
Speaker 2: so far ahead of everyone else and there would be
11:31
Speaker 2: a wave of people who would endorse him right away.
11:34
Speaker 2: Candidates looking for his endorsement, his sort of collection of supplicants,
11:40
Speaker 2: people who want attention. And so he would like gain
11:43
Speaker 2: momentum and in his mind he could theoretically– reestablish himself
11:48
Speaker 2: as the inevitable and eventual Republican nominee in 2024. He
11:53
Speaker 2: could starve any momentum that Ron DeSantis, for instance, is getting.
11:59
Speaker 2: So that would sort of be the argument for it,
12:02
Speaker 2: in addition to, I think, the thing we referenced earlier
12:04
Speaker 2: about possibly getting more attention, a lot which would give
12:06
Speaker 2: him a better platform to fight back against, in his mind,
12:10
Speaker 2: the January 6th hearings and then whatever various legal troubles
12:14
Speaker 2: he has on the horizon.
12:16
Speaker 1: Cons. Cons for Donald Trump.
12:20
Speaker 2: The con would be– I mean we mentioned the fact
12:24
Speaker 2: that it would really make his actual eventual presidential run
12:28
Speaker 2: much more challenging financially and logistically. The con would also
12:32
Speaker 2: be let's say the Democrats do better than expected in
12:37
Speaker 2: these midterms. And it happened after Trump was announced for president.
12:42
Speaker 2: That would be I think a pretty devastating– reinforcement of
12:46
Speaker 2: the argument that he might be Republicans' worst candidate to
12:49
Speaker 2: run in 2024.
12:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, making the midterms a referendum on Donald Trump instead
12:57
Speaker 1: of Joe Biden, or even like introducing Donald Trump as
13:01
Speaker 1: a character in the midterms, who is not just hovering
13:05
Speaker 1: out there for 2024, but is right now trying to
13:08
Speaker 1: become president again, and then making every single Republican candidate
13:12
Speaker 1: in a swear their loyalty to Donald Trump as he's
13:16
Speaker 1: running for president is probably something I'm guessing a lot
13:19
Speaker 1: of those Republican strategists who have candidates in competitive districts
13:23
Speaker 1: and competitive states probably don't want to do. Yeah.
13:25
Speaker 2: As a general rule, I would bet if you did
13:27
Speaker 2: a poll of Republican strategists and Democratic strategists, every single
13:31
Speaker 2: Republican strategist who's not getting rich on Trump's various political
13:35
Speaker 2: committees would think this was a terrible idea. And every
13:37
Speaker 2: Democratic strategist would hope that it happens.
13:41
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I saw somewhere in the piece about
13:45
Speaker 1: this in the New York Times that he also thinks
13:47
Speaker 1: this would like help him get ahead of potential criminal
13:50
Speaker 1: charges coming out of both the January 6th hearings. And
13:55
Speaker 1: so potential criminal charges coming out of whatever the Department
13:59
Speaker 1: of Justice may do after the January 6th hearings and
14:02
Speaker 1: also the grand jury in Georgia, which is also just
14:06
Speaker 1: subpoenaed a few of his buddies, Rudy Giuliani, Lindsey Graham,
14:10
Speaker 1: a couple other buffoons. What do you make of that
14:15
Speaker 1: argument that he thinks this could help him get ahead
14:17
Speaker 1: of potential criminal charges? Because it doesn't make a lot
14:20
Speaker 1: of sense to me.
14:21
Speaker 2: Well, certainly legally, there's not a lot of evidence that
14:24
Speaker 2: it would make sense. It's so hard to try to
14:28
Speaker 2: take a trip into Donald Trump's pea brain to figure
14:30
Speaker 2: out why he thinks certain things. But if I were
14:32
Speaker 2: to try to do that, I guess there would be
14:35
Speaker 2: two possible ways in which he might think this would
14:38
Speaker 2: help him. One is, and I don't really think he
14:42
Speaker 2: would think this because it's like a slightly more complex
14:44
Speaker 2: thought than he would have, but is if Merrick Garland,
14:50
Speaker 2: and I don't know this to be the case, and
14:51
Speaker 2: I don't believe it to be the case, but if
14:53
Speaker 2: the Department of Justice, they're having real conversations about the
14:56
Speaker 2: political optics of prosecutors at the Department of Justice pursuing
15:00
Speaker 2: a criminal conviction of their boss's most likely 2024 opponent,
15:07
Speaker 2: the fact that he is actively running to replace Joe
15:10
Speaker 2: Biden would potentially add to that concern. I don't think
15:13
Speaker 2: that's really what's happening here, but I'm just trying to
15:15
Speaker 2: figure out what it is. The other way, the more
15:17
Speaker 2: simplistic way is just picture the world in which Merrick
15:22
Speaker 2: Garland holds a press conference, or probably not even Merrick Garland,
15:25
Speaker 2: some US attorney somewhere holds a press conference and says,
15:28
Speaker 2: We are announcing that a grand jury today indicted Donald
15:31
Speaker 2: Trump for criminal conspiracy to blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
15:35
Speaker 2: There will then ensue a conversation about whether it is
15:38
Speaker 2: a wise decision for the Republican Party to choose as
15:42
Speaker 2: their nominee someone who is currently indicted for trying to
15:46
Speaker 2: overturn an election. And Donald Trump can say, aha, I've
15:50
Speaker 2: already announced. I'm already running.
15:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, this to me is the big– Another political con
15:58
Speaker 1: for him, too, is that, like, you know, the January
16:01
Speaker 1: 6th hearings, if they do nothing else, if DOJ doesn't move,
16:05
Speaker 1: if Georgia doesn't turn out to be anything, have reminded
16:08
Speaker 1: Americans of what a fucking criminal Donald Trump is. Like,
16:12
Speaker 1: I think it is... hurt his approval ratings again, which
16:16
Speaker 1: were sort of like, he was out of sight, out
16:18
Speaker 1: of mind for a little while. He was actually doing okay.
16:21
Speaker 1: Him being thrust back into the spotlight, anytime he's thrust
16:24
Speaker 1: back into the spotlight, doesn't always reminds Americans of, you know,
16:27
Speaker 1: what an asshole he is, at least most Americans. Um, there,
16:31
Speaker 1: you know, there's like a recent poll out that says
16:33
Speaker 1: like 60 something percent of Americans think he shouldn't run again. Um,
16:37
Speaker 1: I will tell you like just in some of these
16:38
Speaker 1: wilderness focus groups I've done, the few Trump voters who
16:41
Speaker 1: have been in the groups, which aren't many are like, Yeah, no,
16:44
Speaker 1: I'm disappointed in Joe Biden and the Democrats. And I
16:47
Speaker 1: don't think I'd vote Democrat, but I do not. No one,
16:49
Speaker 1: not a single person wants Donald Trump to run for
16:51
Speaker 1: president again, who is not the MAGA base that is
16:54
Speaker 1: already excited. There's not going to be more excited by
16:57
Speaker 1: the fact that Donald Trump announces for president. They are
16:59
Speaker 1: as excited as it gets. Donald Trump, the day he announces,
17:03
Speaker 1: whether it's this month, whether it's six months from now,
17:05
Speaker 1: whether it's a year from now, they are going to
17:07
Speaker 1: be there excited at rallies. It's just going to happen, right?
17:10
Speaker 1: But that base is not enough to win the presidency.
17:15
Speaker 1: And I wonder if announcing right at the moment when
17:19
Speaker 1: the large parts of the country are reminded of what
17:23
Speaker 1: you did around January 6th and how you tried to
17:25
Speaker 1: overturn the last election. is the best political idea, as
17:30
Speaker 1: opposed to just like waiting because, you know, everyone has
17:32
Speaker 1: a fucking, you know, pea brain memory now because of
17:35
Speaker 1: social media. But if you just waited like five months
17:38
Speaker 1: after the January 6th hearings and then announced in a
17:43
Speaker 1: different environment, perhaps like I'm sure most Republican strategists want
17:46
Speaker 1: after a midterm that isn't great for Joe Biden and
17:49
Speaker 1: the Democrats, then you're in better shape. And it's it
17:51
Speaker 1: is pretty wild.
17:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think Trump probably believes down deep
17:55
Speaker 2: somewhere that he has a political shelf life of milk.
17:59
Speaker 2: And so he doesn't, like, it's just the longer he
18:02
Speaker 2: is not the candidate.
18:03
Speaker 1: It's starting to smell. It's starting to smell.
18:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, he can smell himself right now. And it's like, just,
18:08
Speaker 2: yet I sort of, like, I'm trying to imagine, I
18:11
Speaker 2: don't think he's going to do this. I wouldn't, like,
18:12
Speaker 2: the preceding 15 minutes of really smart, funny chatter about
18:16
Speaker 2: this aside, I don't think he's going to do it
18:18
Speaker 2: for the campaign finance campaign. Like I just find it
18:24
Speaker 2: hard to imagine he's going to file with a statement
18:27
Speaker 2: of candidacy with the FEC before this election. When someone's like, hey,
18:31
Speaker 2: do you want to have a couple of rich people
18:33
Speaker 2: give you all this money you can spend forever? Or
18:37
Speaker 2: do you want to go around raising $ 2, 900 per person?
18:39
Speaker 1: Right.
18:41
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to want to do that
18:42
Speaker 2: because that's work. But you do see a world where
18:45
Speaker 2: he comes out, he posts– he truths something and it
18:48
Speaker 2: says– he just excludes something. That's the right use of it, right?
18:52
Speaker 1: Isn't that what you do? That's why I'm laughing so
18:54
Speaker 1: hard because it's the exact right use.
18:57
Speaker 2: Then he goes on Hannity and he's on Steve Bannon's
19:02
Speaker 2: forum and then they go to Lindsey Graham. They're like,
19:03
Speaker 2: Lindsey Graham, Donald Trump said he'd run for president. Do
19:05
Speaker 2: you support him? He's like, yes. And then all the
19:07
Speaker 2: rest of the fucking Yahoo's are like, yeah, I got
19:09
Speaker 2: to say yes too. And then all of a sudden
19:11
Speaker 2: it's like 37 of 50 Republican senators have endorsed Donald Trump,
19:16
Speaker 2: you know, and all the, like Greg Abbott running for reelection.
19:19
Speaker 2: And then you just, you see it and you're just
19:20
Speaker 2: like Ron DeSantis, just sitting at home by yourself in Florida,
19:24
Speaker 2: trying to ban your own books. It's just like, so
19:26
Speaker 2: I can see a world like, is that the right
19:29
Speaker 2: way you would do it? But if you were just like,
19:30
Speaker 2: what I care about is just maintaining control of this
19:34
Speaker 2: party and I'll figure the rest out later. You can
19:37
Speaker 2: sort of see a world in which that works better
19:40
Speaker 2: for him than you would think.
19:42
Speaker 1: And to Donald Trump, maintaining control has always been about
19:45
Speaker 1: maintaining attention. It's an attention game, which of course is
19:48
Speaker 1: politics today in the social media. age. You just mentioned
19:51
Speaker 1: the other fucking yahoos, Ron DeSantis and the rest. If
19:55
Speaker 1: you were DeSantis or one of the more delusional potential
19:59
Speaker 1: Trump opponents like a Mike Pence or Mike Pompeo, would
20:03
Speaker 1: an early Trump announcement give you pause about your own candidacy?
20:06
Speaker 1: Do you think that would effectively freeze them out?
20:10
Speaker 2: I think the reaction– it's not the timing of Trump's announcement,
20:13
Speaker 2: but the reaction to it could give you some pause.
20:17
Speaker 2: But I don't– like Mike Pompeo, what should give Mike
20:21
Speaker 2: Pompeo pause is the fact that he's Mike Pompeo. Like
20:24
Speaker 2: I don't care if Donald Trump ever announces Mike Pompeo.
20:26
Speaker 2: You're not going to be president. But like someone– like
20:31
Speaker 2: a very smart, wired-in political reporter told me something a
20:34
Speaker 2: few weeks ago about Ron DeSantis. is would DeSantis challenge him?
20:42
Speaker 2: And that person told me is that DeSantis really has
20:47
Speaker 2: looked at Rubio and Christie and what happened from them
20:52
Speaker 2: for missing their shot in 2012. They were the stars
20:55
Speaker 2: of the Republican Party. They passed up on that because
20:58
Speaker 2: they thought they either couldn't beat Obama or whatever it was.
21:01
Speaker 2: And then by the time they ran four years later,
21:04
Speaker 2: they were old hat, no one cared, and they were basically,
21:07
Speaker 2: you know, Rubio's making penis jokes on stage with Donald Trump, right? Like,
21:10
Speaker 2: that's where you end up. And, like, this is his moment, right?
21:13
Speaker 2: And this person even told me that, like, at least
21:17
Speaker 2: people around DeSantis have cited Obama as someone who, like,
21:20
Speaker 2: who understood that you run when you have your shot,
21:24
Speaker 2: and if you don't run, then you'll probably never get
21:26
Speaker 2: your shot again. So I think there's a, you know,
21:28
Speaker 2: if that is true, then I think he probably runs anyway,
21:31
Speaker 2: because if he wants to be president, this will be
21:33
Speaker 2: his best chance whether Trump runs or not.
21:36
Speaker 1: Can I ask how often do you speak to Hugh Hewitt?
21:42
Speaker 2: Well, John, I, I, I just spent a lot of
21:45
Speaker 2: time with the Nixon library, just doing some research.
21:49
Speaker 1: Into him there.
21:50
Speaker 2: This was a, this was a, uh, not a DeSantis
21:54
Speaker 2: fan per se, who told me this.
21:56
Speaker 1: If I was giving a DeSantis advice, I agree with
22:00
Speaker 1: all that, that he does need to just shoot a shot.
22:01
Speaker 1: If Trump decides to run, but like from the get go, uh,
22:05
Speaker 1: Right out of the gate, you have to have your case.
22:09
Speaker 1: If you're Ron DeSantis, why? Not just why you, but
22:13
Speaker 1: why not Donald Trump? You cannot do the 2016 thing
22:17
Speaker 1: of let's just pretend Donald Trump isn't there. I'm going
22:19
Speaker 1: to make the case for myself. I'm worried about attacking
22:22
Speaker 1: him because if I attack him, then he'll go after
22:25
Speaker 1: me and then someone else will rise. I think you
22:28
Speaker 1: need to have at least an implicit case, if not
22:32
Speaker 1: an explicit case, why it should be you and not
22:34
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And I don't know if Ron DeSantis has
22:38
Speaker 1: got that in him, but we'll see.
22:40
Speaker 2: I mean, in the case, Donald Trump's a loser.
22:42
Speaker 1: Yeah.
22:43
Speaker 2: Didn't win, can't win.
22:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got the election close enough for Joe Biden
22:48
Speaker 1: to steal, right? Because they all have to say that
22:51
Speaker 1: the election was stolen to keep up appearances because they're
22:53
Speaker 1: all fucking fascist assholes. Yeah. OK, let's talk about the
23:08
Speaker 1: man who is currently the Democratic frontrunner for 2024, Joe Biden.
23:13
Speaker 1: President has an average approval rating of 39 percent right now.
23:17
Speaker 1: That's the lowest of any president at this point in
23:19
Speaker 1: his term since Harry Truman. And in the same recent
23:23
Speaker 1: Harvard-Harris poll that shows the generic midterm ballot at an
23:26
Speaker 1: even 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, 71 percent of all
23:30
Speaker 1: voters say that Biden shouldn't run for reelection. This has
23:33
Speaker 1: unsurprisingly led to a brutal week of stories in The
23:36
Speaker 1: New York Times, Washington Post, Politico and other outlets that
23:40
Speaker 1: are all these stories are heavy on complaints, light on
23:43
Speaker 1: advice from various named and mostly unnamed Democratic strategists and
23:47
Speaker 1: lawmakers from everything about the White House's message to their
23:51
Speaker 1: management to Joe Biden's strategy. But of course, the lowest
23:55
Speaker 1: blow by far came in a CNN piece that led
23:57
Speaker 1: with an anecdote about how Joe Biden has even lost
23:59
Speaker 1: the support of former Will and Grace Stark. Deborah Messing. Dan,
24:06
Speaker 1: how does any White House move on from something like that?
24:08
Speaker 2: I think it's important that we put the Deborah Messing
24:12
Speaker 2: anecdote in historical context, which is in.
24:17
Speaker 1: You know what? Of all the responses that I thought
24:21
Speaker 1: were coming to that question, this is not one. This
24:24
Speaker 1: is not one I expected, so kudos.
24:25
Speaker 2: I have to warn you, I don't think you're going
24:27
Speaker 2: to be impressed.
24:30
Speaker 3: So.
24:32
Speaker 2: The Nixon presidency effectively ended when a dozen Republican senators
24:36
Speaker 2: went to the White House and told Nixon to resign.
24:40
Speaker 2: It really feels like the perfect 2022 version of that
24:43
Speaker 2: is Debra Messing yelling at a White House aide on
24:45
Speaker 2: a Zoom call.
24:46
Speaker 1: It was the lead of the piece. It was the
24:50
Speaker 1: lead of the CNN piece. You're wondering why I brought
24:54
Speaker 1: it up. It's the lead.
24:55
Speaker 2: You know what that is? That's fucking great writing because
24:58
Speaker 2: here you and I are talking about it.
25:00
Speaker 1: You know what? Mission accomplished. Okay. In all seriousness, most
25:04
Speaker 1: of us are angry, frustrated, disappointed about where we are
25:08
Speaker 1: right now, where the country is right now. I guess
25:10
Speaker 1: the question is how much of our current predicament can
25:15
Speaker 1: be blamed on the Biden administration? How much is beyond
25:17
Speaker 1: their control of all the current critiques out there? Which
25:21
Speaker 1: do you think are fair? Which do you think are not?
25:26
Speaker 2: That is a, that is a multi-far question. So thank you,
25:32
Speaker 2: Chuck Todd, for joining the podcast today.
25:36
Speaker 1: Well, in that case, now.
25:37
Speaker 2: I'm going to leave. Because I'm not a.
25:40
Speaker 1: Now you can say whatever you want. I'll just go
25:42
Speaker 1: on to the next one. That's right.
25:44
Speaker 2: The one thing White House reporters never realize, if you
25:45
Speaker 2: ask a multi-part question, the president only has to answer
25:49
Speaker 2: the part they want to answer. But because we're here
25:52
Speaker 2: to inform, I will try to answer all of them. Look,
25:54
Speaker 2: I think... I think I just want to stipulate I'm
25:58
Speaker 2: very biased on this question. I am biased because I
26:02
Speaker 2: worked in the White House, as you did. I know
26:04
Speaker 2: how fucking hard those jobs are. I have been in
26:07
Speaker 2: story– not Debra Messing and A Good Excited, but in
26:10
Speaker 2: stories very much like this. I guess our version of
26:14
Speaker 2: the Debra Messing story was when Bryan Cranston, who was
26:17
Speaker 2: playing LBJ on Broadway– Uh, I think an interview with
26:23
Speaker 2: Maureen Dowd, where he said that Barack Obama was not
26:25
Speaker 2: doing a good enough job twisting arms. Like that was
26:28
Speaker 2: our version of Debra Messon.
26:29
Speaker 1: I have really, I have blocked a lot of this
26:30
Speaker 1: stuff from my memory, but, um, I.
26:33
Speaker 2: Hold, I hold, I hold many, many a grudge. And so, um,
26:37
Speaker 2: but it's either here or there. And I also love
26:40
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. I think he is a very good person
26:43
Speaker 2: doing a really fucking hard job to the best visibility.
26:45
Speaker 2: And all the people in the work in the white
26:46
Speaker 2: house are also our friends. And we also know they're
26:49
Speaker 2: really fucking smart. And they're working their asses off in
26:52
Speaker 2: a really, really hard environment. And so that's all to
26:57
Speaker 2: say that I'm quite biased on this. What I think
27:01
Speaker 2: the vast majority of the political problems for Joe Biden
27:04
Speaker 2: are because we are in an era of historic inflation.
27:09
Speaker 2: We now have a Fed raising interest rates to combat
27:12
Speaker 2: that inflation. We now might have a recession because the
27:16
Speaker 2: Fed is raising interest rates to combat that inflation. You
27:19
Speaker 2: have a war in Russia. You have a pandemic that
27:20
Speaker 2: won't go away. You have a radical right-wing Republican Party
27:24
Speaker 2: openly plotting an insurrection and very little the Democrats have
27:28
Speaker 2: to have the ability to stop that. That leads to
27:31
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of frustration. Very little of that is
27:34
Speaker 2: under the direct control of Joe Biden. And that is
27:38
Speaker 2: not to say that the responses could not be better.
27:42
Speaker 2: They cannot be faster. They cannot be louder. Like, is
27:45
Speaker 2: Joe Biden doing every single thing he can to deal
27:49
Speaker 2: with inflation? No. But if he did do everything he could,
27:52
Speaker 2: would it make a gigantic difference in what people were
27:55
Speaker 2: paying at the pump or at the grocery store?
27:57
Speaker 1: No.
27:58
Speaker 2: Was the response from everyone in the party, not just
28:02
Speaker 2: the president, to the ruling on Roe insufficient and too slow? Yes.
28:08
Speaker 2: Is it a completely fair critique that with six weeks' notice,
28:11
Speaker 2: the White House has not yet released their executive actions? 100%.
28:15
Speaker 2: But if they had nailed that 100% and done everything
28:18
Speaker 2: that was in the very useful plans and tweet threads
28:22
Speaker 2: and op-eds put out by Elizabeth Warren and AOC, I
28:24
Speaker 2: think that would still feel insufficient to people because you
28:28
Speaker 2: have the Supreme Court filled with justices who were appointed
28:33
Speaker 2: by presidents who lost elections. taking away constitutional rights from
28:37
Speaker 2: people for the first time in modern history. Like there
28:39
Speaker 2: is nothing the president could say that's going to solve that.
28:42
Speaker 2: And so I think the vast, could they be doing better? Absolutely.
28:47
Speaker 2: If they did everything perfectly, would Joe Biden be at
28:49
Speaker 2: 50% and Democrats on the glide path to victory? No,
28:53
Speaker 2: of course not. Like there is a, where there's a
28:55
Speaker 2: tendency to focus on the stylistic versus the structural, the,
28:58
Speaker 2: the crux of the political problems are structural in my opinion.
29:02
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, I, I am obviously, I share
29:06
Speaker 1: all of your biases and I think, but I also
29:10
Speaker 1: think like when we are resistant to criticize the Biden
29:14
Speaker 1: White House, I will say it's not just because I
29:17
Speaker 1: like Joe Biden personally and we know a lot of
29:19
Speaker 1: people in the White House, but I think it's more
29:21
Speaker 1: because we have been in those jobs and we have
29:25
Speaker 1: faced this set of circumstances or similar sets of circumstances
29:28
Speaker 1: where the power you have is finite and so much
29:32
Speaker 1: is beyond your control. And I think that like 70%
29:36
Speaker 1: of the job of being president is substance and what
29:39
Speaker 1: you get to and 30% is performance. But the media
29:43
Speaker 1: coverage is like 70% performance and 30% what you get done.
29:49
Speaker 1: And I think on the performance side, um, the community,
29:52
Speaker 1: you know, and, and again, saying these words, it.
29:56
Speaker 2: Hurts me to know you're saying.
29:58
Speaker 1: You know, because in the white house, it would be
30:01
Speaker 1: Barack Obama has a communication problem and all of us
30:04
Speaker 1: worked in communications. And we were like, it's not our
30:06
Speaker 1: fucking fault that we're trying to dig out of a
30:08
Speaker 1: recession and that we, uh, couldn't pass the version of
30:11
Speaker 1: the affordable care act that we wanted. And that Congress
30:13
Speaker 1: isn't playing along with what we want to do and
30:15
Speaker 1: all this other bullshit that's happening. And yet the critique
30:19
Speaker 1: would be that Barack Obama is not emoting enough. He's
30:21
Speaker 1: not performing enough. He's not the same storyteller that he
30:24
Speaker 1: was on the campaign trail. And the reason for that,
30:27
Speaker 1: there are many reasons for that. You are constrained by
30:30
Speaker 1: the office of the presidency or you're constrained by what
30:32
Speaker 1: you can say when you're president of the United States.
30:34
Speaker 1: You're constrained by the White House itself, both the physical
30:36
Speaker 1: nature of the White House, the inability to get outside,
30:38
Speaker 1: to do big rallies like you, all this kind of shit.
30:41
Speaker 1: I do think that particularly in Barack Obama's second term,
30:46
Speaker 1: thanks to you and a lot of the people who
30:48
Speaker 1: are still there, You guys figured out creative ways to
30:53
Speaker 1: meet the moment in terms of where the media environment
30:57
Speaker 1: had changed, how the media environment had changed. And you
31:00
Speaker 1: got creative and everyone was more responsive to the news cycle.
31:03
Speaker 1: And I do think that we don't love the fact that,
31:07
Speaker 1: you know, I think the Biden folks rightly prided themselves
31:10
Speaker 1: during the campaign on like not responding to the Twitter
31:13
Speaker 1: crap of the day. And we all know how much
31:17
Speaker 1: the Twitter hype cycle of the day sucks, right? But
31:21
Speaker 1: I do think being nimble and responding to the news
31:25
Speaker 1: cycle is something that this White House has not been
31:29
Speaker 1: great at. And, you know, we talked about this, but
31:32
Speaker 1: like yesterday he went to Ohio Wednesday and he did
31:36
Speaker 1: an event about pensions and how the American Rescue Plan
31:41
Speaker 1: saved a lot of people's pensions, which is something that
31:43
Speaker 1: I'm sure is very popular and is also just really
31:47
Speaker 1: good policy, right? Congratulations, he did it. But it is
31:50
Speaker 1: weird to be giving a speech about that when we
31:53
Speaker 1: are a week out from the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. And,
31:58
Speaker 1: you know, there was more sort of, there was more,
32:00
Speaker 1: there was a horrible mass shooting over the 4th of
32:02
Speaker 1: July weekend. And, you know, then you could say, okay, well,
32:05
Speaker 1: what do you want him to do? What do you
32:06
Speaker 1: want him to say? Like he does not have, he's
32:08
Speaker 1: sort of like worked through a lot of the executive
32:10
Speaker 1: actions he has. And also in the fucking Senate, You
32:14
Speaker 1: still have the one thing that you didn't mention that's
32:15
Speaker 1: beyond his control is you don't really have a true
32:18
Speaker 1: Senate majority because Joe Manchin is basically a fucking Republican
32:22
Speaker 1: and Kyrsten Sinema is a fucking weirdo. So you don't,
32:27
Speaker 1: we've never, yeah, you say Democrats control Washington. Democrats don't
32:30
Speaker 1: really control Washington because we don't really control the Senate.
32:33
Speaker 1: And we've talked about this a million fucking times. We've
32:35
Speaker 1: talked about it for two years now and it's like
32:37
Speaker 1: enraging to keep talking about it. But like, if I
32:39
Speaker 1: was president, would I go out there and say like,
32:42
Speaker 1: get rid of the filibuster and I'll codify Roe and
32:44
Speaker 1: I'll get rid of the filibuster for everything? Yes, of course.
32:46
Speaker 1: And Joe Biden has now said that for voting rights
32:48
Speaker 1: and for Roe v. Wade. Would I say that I
32:49
Speaker 1: want to expand the Supreme Court so that it's not
32:52
Speaker 1: the most right-wing radical court in generations? Yeah, of course
32:55
Speaker 1: I would. And then you know what Joe Manchin would say?
32:57
Speaker 1: Fuck you. You know what I'd be able to do
32:59
Speaker 1: about that? Nothing. Because he gets a vote, right? And so,
33:03
Speaker 1: but I do think that like, there are a whole
33:06
Speaker 1: bunch of ways that Joe Biden and And, and look,
33:09
Speaker 1: I also include the Democrats in Congress, right? Who should,
33:11
Speaker 1: who should not get off easy on this. Joe Biden
33:15
Speaker 1: and Democrats in Congress should be out there showing a
33:18
Speaker 1: sense of urgency and showing that this is the fight
33:21
Speaker 1: of our lives and, and acting like they are going
33:24
Speaker 1: to run through a brick wall for the American people
33:27
Speaker 1: every single day. Will that make substantive progress in Congress?
33:33
Speaker 1: Probably not, not until this election, but will it, potentially
33:37
Speaker 1: build the political coalition we need to win a real
33:40
Speaker 1: majority and also earn the trust of people who want
33:44
Speaker 1: to believe that if we do get that real majority,
33:47
Speaker 1: we're going to make real progress. Yeah, maybe. And like
33:50
Speaker 1: we can criticize performance all we want, but performance and
33:54
Speaker 1: the urgency and the passion behind performance is one way
33:58
Speaker 1: to build the trust and the political majority you need
34:01
Speaker 1: to deliver real change. And I do think on that front,
34:04
Speaker 1: they could be doing better. I.
34:07
Speaker 2: I remember it taking Barack Obama and all of us,
34:11
Speaker 2: myself in particular, a while to figure out that sometimes
34:16
Speaker 2: the job of the president is to say the thing
34:18
Speaker 2: that people want to hear, to speak to their sadness,
34:22
Speaker 2: their fears, their anger.
34:24
Speaker 1: You're going to meet people where they are.
34:26
Speaker 2: Right. Our friend David Axelrod used to call it the
34:29
Speaker 2: pastoral role of the president. I remember very clearly on–
34:35
Speaker 2: Christmas Eve, I think, 2009, when the shoe bomber happened.
34:40
Speaker 2: And we had just been through a brutal year. Obama
34:44
Speaker 2: was in Hawaii. I was on my first day off
34:48
Speaker 2: basically since 2007 at that point. And the idea was,
34:51
Speaker 2: should the president go out and speak about this terrorist
34:54
Speaker 2: attempt where nothing happened? No one was hurt. No one
34:57
Speaker 2: was injured. No lives were lost. No plane crashed. And
35:00
Speaker 2: we didn't know all the facts yet. We thought it
35:02
Speaker 2: might be al-Qaeda, but we didn't really know. Should the
35:05
Speaker 2: president go out and speak? And I remember very clearly
35:07
Speaker 2: some people, namely Robert Gibbs, our press secretary, saying he
35:10
Speaker 2: absolutely has to go out and speak and myself arguing
35:13
Speaker 2: on a call with the president he should not because
35:14
Speaker 2: we don't have anything. Like, why are we just narrating
35:16
Speaker 2: the events? That was a huge error on my part.
35:20
Speaker 2: Robert was right. I was wrong. And it's because people
35:23
Speaker 2: just wanted to see their president at a time of concern.
35:27
Speaker 2: And I think Democrats want to see their president and
35:29
Speaker 2: their congressional leaders share their anger and urgency together. And
35:35
Speaker 2: there have definitely been moments where Biden has done that, right?
35:37
Speaker 2: His speech on January 6th was a huge part of that, right?
35:40
Speaker 2: The voting rights speech he gave the next day in
35:42
Speaker 2: Georgia was another part of it. I thought some of
35:45
Speaker 2: his remarks after the Dobbs decision were quite good. But
35:50
Speaker 2: what I think the challenge is, and I think this
35:52
Speaker 2: is a challenge that every Democrat in leadership currently faces,
35:56
Speaker 2: is you have to be a part of the conversation 24-7.
36:01
Speaker 2: Like in this media environment, you are either serving dinner
36:04
Speaker 2: or you are dinner, right? Like that's what it is.
36:07
Speaker 2: And if you are not out there talking, people are
36:08
Speaker 2: talking about you. The content machine is either feeding on
36:12
Speaker 2: the people you're telling them to feed on or it's
36:13
Speaker 2: feeding on you. And Biden– and I think that that
36:16
Speaker 2: is a huge– like there is a vacuum and it
36:20
Speaker 2: is being filled by Republicans attacking Biden and Democrats criticizing Biden.
36:26
Speaker 2: And I get that that is incredibly challenging. In my head,
36:30
Speaker 2: and I'm trying not even to revert to my old
36:33
Speaker 2: White House self, I know exactly how that pension event
36:37
Speaker 2: got on the calendar. It's been a priority for a
36:39
Speaker 2: lot of people for a long time. When can we travel?
36:42
Speaker 2: This is the first day we can travel because of
36:44
Speaker 2: all X, Y, and Z. We're going to go there.
36:46
Speaker 2: We've already booked the place because we sent the advance
36:48
Speaker 2: team out weeks ago. The labor department is paying for
36:50
Speaker 2: the trip because it's a pension event. So they're doing it.
36:54
Speaker 2: So we can't switch it to an abortion event or
36:56
Speaker 2: something like, I know exactly how it happened. And there
37:00
Speaker 2: is a real, this is what's really hard. And this
37:02
Speaker 2: is one thing where Trump's, I'm not saying Biden should
37:05
Speaker 2: tweet like Trump. I'm not saying that. Be very clear.
37:08
Speaker 2: But- One thing where Trump's social media use was an
37:11
Speaker 2: advantage was he was able to respond faster than the
37:15
Speaker 2: traditional ways in which presidents can do things because it
37:19
Speaker 2: is a fucking aircraft carrier to get things in motion.
37:22
Speaker 2: It's one of the things in the second term Obama
37:23
Speaker 2: really started doing. It's just walking to the briefing room
37:27
Speaker 2: because you can do that. You got to be willing
37:28
Speaker 2: to take questions when you do it, but you can
37:30
Speaker 2: just walk down there and do it and you can
37:32
Speaker 2: be there five minutes after the bad thing happens. You
37:34
Speaker 2: don't have to like call the pool and go, you know,
37:38
Speaker 2: take down the, what the state dinner set up in
37:41
Speaker 2: the East room and go with like, you can just
37:43
Speaker 2: do it. And so there's no easy answers here. Like
37:46
Speaker 2: I said, they did everything perfectly. Is that, does that
37:48
Speaker 2: change a ton? No, of course not. Like I, my
37:51
Speaker 2: sympathy goes out to the president and this team trying
37:53
Speaker 2: to operate in this media environment, which is the shit
37:56
Speaker 2: show of epic proportions. Um, It's hard.
37:59
Speaker 1: But I will say it's also, I think it's a
38:01
Speaker 1: Joe Biden problem to solve. And it's not even necessarily
38:04
Speaker 1: a White House problem because, you know, Dana Milbank at
38:07
Speaker 1: the Washington Post wrote this column that the Biden folks
38:10
Speaker 1: have been sending around and the DNC has been sending
38:12
Speaker 1: around about how like, actually, Joe Biden is saying all
38:15
Speaker 1: the things that all you people want him to say.
38:17
Speaker 1: And that when he gives remarks about Dobbs or about
38:20
Speaker 1: guns or about Republican book bans, he's calling out their extremism.
38:24
Speaker 1: He's calling out what bullshit this is, all this kind
38:25
Speaker 1: of stuff. And you read the column and you're like, yeah,
38:28
Speaker 1: I guess he is saying those words in the remarks,
38:30
Speaker 1: but they're not really getting through because he's not, he
38:33
Speaker 1: doesn't have the passion, right? And like we have seen,
38:36
Speaker 1: like you said, we have seen moments where Joe Biden
38:38
Speaker 1: can summon that kind of passion and he has to
38:41
Speaker 1: figure that out for himself. And that's not something, because
38:44
Speaker 1: there's a lot of, I think there's a lot of
38:45
Speaker 1: smart people in that White House that know what the
38:47
Speaker 1: message should be. But he's the one who has to
38:51
Speaker 1: deliver it and it can only be him.
38:53
Speaker 2: But it's not also just how he delivers it, it's
38:55
Speaker 2: how often he delivers it, right? There is a- Like
38:58
Speaker 2: there is a– political communication involves two things, what you
39:03
Speaker 2: say and how you get people to hear it. And
39:06
Speaker 2: I think Biden for much of his presidency has said
39:08
Speaker 2: the right thing, right? He has popular policies. He's talked
39:12
Speaker 2: about them in like I think really smart, instinctual populist ways.
39:16
Speaker 2: He has expressed outrage in a lot of moments. He
39:18
Speaker 2: can be funny. But enough people aren't hearing it. You
39:21
Speaker 2: got to solve the problem. And I think just if
39:23
Speaker 2: people want to like dig deeper into this thing we've
39:24
Speaker 2: been talking about for a long time, There was a
39:26
Speaker 2: podcast and Ezra Klein interviewed our friends, Sean McElwee and
39:30
Speaker 2: Anat Shankar Osorio on his podcast a couple of months
39:33
Speaker 2: ago about like democratic communications and the white house and
39:36
Speaker 2: all of that, that I think is an absolute must
39:39
Speaker 2: listen and gets to some of the questions because this
39:42
Speaker 2: isn't just Biden, right? Like where are the congressional leaders?
39:44
Speaker 2: Where are other people in Congress, right? There's like a
39:46
Speaker 2: handful of smart people like Elizabeth Warren or AOC and
39:50
Speaker 2: Chris Murphy on guns who are getting out there and
39:52
Speaker 2: having their message heard, but the vast majority of people
39:53
Speaker 2: are just tweeting out library grants and not commanding the
39:57
Speaker 2: share of public attention that they need.
40:00
Speaker 1: One piece of news that I hesitate to refer to
40:02
Speaker 1: as even potentially good is that Chuck Schumer and Joe
40:04
Speaker 1: Manchin have reportedly made a deal on one piece of
40:07
Speaker 1: a new reconciliation bill. Punchbowl reported Wednesday that Schumer sent
40:11
Speaker 1: text to the Senate parliamentarian of an agreement among all
40:13
Speaker 1: 50 Senate Democrats on a provision that would allow Medicare
40:17
Speaker 1: to negotiate for lower prescription drug costs. I think there's
40:20
Speaker 1: also an out-of-pocket cap of $ 2, 000 per year per person.
40:25
Speaker 1: There's no word about other possible reconciliation provisions on climate
40:28
Speaker 1: taxes or health care, though I saw in our Slack
40:31
Speaker 1: just before we started recording that you sent around a
40:33
Speaker 1: piece that I guess they're getting a little closer on that,
40:36
Speaker 1: though Manchin's spokesperson said, oh, there's still no deal. There's
40:39
Speaker 1: still a lot of shit that we're trying to figure out.
40:41
Speaker 1: I mean, should we bang our heads against the wall
40:44
Speaker 1: once more for old time's sake on this or what?
40:47
Speaker 1: What do you think?
40:49
Speaker 2: I mean, I read that story. Manchin's spokesperson is quoted
40:52
Speaker 2: in Punchbowl talking about how they're not near an agreement
40:55
Speaker 2: on methane emissions, which is the same problem they've had
40:57
Speaker 2: every single time we've theoretically gotten close. So look, I
41:02
Speaker 2: don't want to be on brand as the glass half
41:04
Speaker 2: empty guy. Just like wake me when you have a deal.
41:07
Speaker 2: I'm not going to exert any intellectual or emotional investment
41:12
Speaker 2: in hoping for, thinking about, plotting about some sort of deal.
41:17
Speaker 2: If there's like a five minutes period of time where
41:19
Speaker 2: there is not a lobbyist in each of Joe Manchin's ears,
41:22
Speaker 2: and he puts his name on a dotted line, I
41:24
Speaker 2: will celebrate with confetti, but until then, just leave us alone, Punchbowl.
41:31
Speaker 1: No, not Punchbowl, Paul. No, no, no.
41:33
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, I simply cannot read Punchbowl AM, Punchbowl PM,
41:37
Speaker 2: Punchbowl Lunchtime, Punchbowl Special Access.
41:39
Speaker 1: Leave us alone, Joe Manchin, fucking asshole. All right. When
41:42
Speaker 1: we come back, I'll talk more about what the current
41:44
Speaker 1: political climate might mean for the midterms with Democratic pollster
41:47
Speaker 1: and strategist, Celinda Lake. And we're back with the midterms
41:59
Speaker 1: just four months away and Democrats still searching for a
42:02
Speaker 1: clear message amidst the onslaught of bad news. We thought
42:05
Speaker 1: we'd bring back one of the smartest strategists and pollsters
42:07
Speaker 1: in the business to help us make sense of it all. So,
42:10
Speaker 1: Linda Lake, welcome back to the pod.
42:12
Speaker 3: Oh, thanks. I love being here. Thank you for your
42:14
Speaker 3: astute analysis.
42:16
Speaker 1: We love having you. So, wrong track numbers are as
42:19
Speaker 1: high as they've ever been. Joe Biden's approval rating is
42:22
Speaker 1: as low as it's ever been. You talk to voters
42:24
Speaker 1: all the time. How much of this reflects concern over
42:29
Speaker 1: inflation and gas prices among the broader electorate? And how
42:33
Speaker 1: much of it do you think reflects the predominant media
42:36
Speaker 1: narrative about, you know, Democrats being disappointed in the Biden administration?
42:41
Speaker 3: I think it's mostly the broader narrative and the uncertainty
42:46
Speaker 3: of everything. I mean, every time you turn around, Democrat,
42:51
Speaker 3: Republican or independent, you're hit with something new. The inflation,
42:55
Speaker 3: the war, Evaldi, Highland Park, Buffalo, you name it. Storms, floods,
43:01
Speaker 3: Yellowstone National Park closing. When does Yellowstone National Park close?
43:07
Speaker 3: I mean, it's just like people just feel, as one
43:09
Speaker 3: millennial said, this country's a dumpster fire. And I think
43:14
Speaker 3: that's what Americans feel like. So, you know, you'd have
43:18
Speaker 3: to be kind of crazy to say things are going
43:19
Speaker 3: in the right direction. But that's different than saying, Who's
43:24
Speaker 3: working on your behalf where we have an eight point advantage?
43:27
Speaker 3: Who cares about people? We have a six point advantage.
43:30
Speaker 3: It's a tough environment. I'm not kidding. It's easy to
43:33
Speaker 3: be demoralized. But things like Roe v. Wade being overturned
43:38
Speaker 3: and where that leads with birth control and marriage equality,
43:40
Speaker 3: interracial marriage, the stakes are getting very clear for the
43:45
Speaker 3: 2022 elections.
43:47
Speaker 1: Well, you know, I just asked Dan this in our
43:49
Speaker 1: last segment, so I'll ask you, too. What kind of
43:52
Speaker 1: advice would you give Joe Biden right now, knowing that
43:56
Speaker 1: much of this is beyond his control or beyond any
43:59
Speaker 1: president's control, as we've seen from all our years in
44:03
Speaker 1: Democratic politics? But what is within your control is the
44:07
Speaker 1: executive actions that you can take, your message, what you emphasize,
44:11
Speaker 1: what you focus on every day. What advice would you
44:14
Speaker 1: give him right now?
44:16
Speaker 3: I think they're doing a lot of what they should
44:17
Speaker 3: be doing and they have to do it on steroids.
44:20
Speaker 3: But the first piece of advice I'd say, and I
44:22
Speaker 3: think that you see a dramatic change in the president's
44:25
Speaker 3: message in the last six months, which is don't say
44:28
Speaker 3: things are good because people wonder what planet you're on.
44:32
Speaker 3: They wonder, as one person asked in a focus group,
44:35
Speaker 3: what neighborhoods do economists live in? Because people think they're complete.
44:40
Speaker 3: So be in touch. Do something every day. Use every
44:44
Speaker 3: lever at your disposal. and frame up a contrast. Don't
44:48
Speaker 3: let this be a referendum. This election is a real
44:51
Speaker 3: choice and frame up that choice for people. They're doing
44:54
Speaker 3: a lot. The administration is doing a lot. I still
44:57
Speaker 3: think they have some work to do in terms of
45:00
Speaker 3: packaging it in a way that people notice it, can
45:03
Speaker 3: remember it. It's hard to get coverage for executive actions,
45:07
Speaker 3: but do something every day, frame it up, show the contrast,
45:12
Speaker 3: and pass some things this fall. We desperately need to
45:15
Speaker 3: get prescription drug reform fast. We need to get the
45:21
Speaker 3: ACA subsidies extended. There's a lot we can be doing
45:24
Speaker 3: and we need to do it.
45:26
Speaker 1: Do you think they've been nimble enough on figuring out
45:30
Speaker 1: what messages to push out every day? We're talking on Thursday.
45:35
Speaker 1: On Wednesday, I know he did an event, Brian did
45:37
Speaker 1: an event in Ohio. It was about pensions and some
45:41
Speaker 1: of the work they've done to save people's pensions, which
45:44
Speaker 1: is great work. And I'm also sure, without being a
45:47
Speaker 1: pollster myself, that that polls really well. At the same time,
45:51
Speaker 1: you look at the news and, you know, there's more
45:54
Speaker 1: mass shootings. We're still only a week out from the
45:57
Speaker 1: Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Like, do they need
46:01
Speaker 1: to sort of be more in the news cycle with
46:04
Speaker 1: what they have him saying? Or is it important to
46:06
Speaker 1: just get those economic messages out no matter what?
46:09
Speaker 3: I think it's important to get the economic messages out
46:12
Speaker 3: no matter what. And they have been pretty aggressive on
46:15
Speaker 3: the guns message and on Roe v. Wade. And the
46:18
Speaker 3: vice president has been very active on Roe v. Wade.
46:21
Speaker 3: But I do think you're identifying a problem, which is,
46:24
Speaker 3: first of all, there's so much going on, it's hard
46:26
Speaker 3: to process anything. And then I think in some ways,
46:30
Speaker 3: this has to get delivered to real people's tables before
46:33
Speaker 3: they're going to really process this. But I do think
46:37
Speaker 3: there is a packaging problem. I think all of this
46:40
Speaker 3: needs to be packaged under an overall umbrella that is
46:44
Speaker 3: the contrast. We're for the people. We're for the will
46:47
Speaker 3: of the people. They are for the corporate special interests.
46:51
Speaker 3: They are for their own power. There is a real
46:54
Speaker 3: choice here. There is someone who will not allow an abortion,
46:58
Speaker 3: even in cases of rape and incest. And there is
47:01
Speaker 3: a party that is fighting to maintain abortion care and
47:05
Speaker 3: birth control and support children. that are born with a
47:09
Speaker 3: child tax credit. And there's a party that took that
47:12
Speaker 3: child tax credit away from three and a half million
47:16
Speaker 3: poor kids. They didn't just not do it. They took
47:19
Speaker 3: it away. That's something that's really serious. So I think
47:23
Speaker 3: we've got a framing problem of how to connect all
47:26
Speaker 3: of these dots in a way that people can go
47:29
Speaker 3: and say, yeah, that's my guy. That's my party. They're
47:32
Speaker 3: on my side. They're getting something done.
47:35
Speaker 1: Speaking about the midterms, are you surprised to see the
47:37
Speaker 1: gap between Biden's lower approval ratings and polling that shows
47:42
Speaker 1: Democratic Senate candidates like Raphael Warnock and John Fetterman holding
47:45
Speaker 1: their own against Republican opponents in two very competitive swing states? Yes.
47:50
Speaker 3: And in fact, we're going to pick up Senate seats.
47:53
Speaker 3: I think that's a pretty safe prediction. And I think,
47:57
Speaker 3: first of all, Senate campaigns, unlike House campaigns, have the
48:00
Speaker 3: ability to develop their own message. They have enough money.
48:04
Speaker 3: They get enough press attention that they can develop their
48:08
Speaker 3: own personas. And these are big people in their states.
48:12
Speaker 3: And so is Ron Johnson. So is Tim Ryan. I mean,
48:17
Speaker 3: these are big figures. Trudy Bush Valentine in Missouri, a
48:22
Speaker 3: sleeper candidate, in my opinion. So I think these Senate
48:25
Speaker 3: races have the money to develop their own dynamic. And
48:28
Speaker 3: voters aren't looking in this state. I mean, the irony
48:31
Speaker 3: is in 2020, Joe Biden didn't have as much coattails
48:34
Speaker 3: as we might have hoped. He had some coattails in Georgia,
48:37
Speaker 3: although I think the Georgia races brought him as much
48:39
Speaker 3: as he brought the Georgia races. But he didn't have
48:42
Speaker 3: a lot of coattails. I don't think these when you're
48:45
Speaker 3: voting for Senate in your state, do you need to
48:47
Speaker 3: look at the president to decide who to support? No.
48:50
Speaker 3: And these Democrats are setting up a populist fight. They're
48:53
Speaker 3: setting up a change message and they're setting up a contrast.
48:57
Speaker 3: And that's what we need to do presidentially, too.
48:59
Speaker 1: But it sounds like you do think that will be
49:01
Speaker 1: harder to pull off for Democratic House candidates.
49:04
Speaker 3: It's much harder in the House, I think. I think
49:07
Speaker 3: we need waves are what influence the House and the
49:09
Speaker 3: structure right now and the nearness of the margin makes
49:12
Speaker 3: it tough. But I think there are some things working
49:14
Speaker 3: in our favor. The number of candidates that we have
49:17
Speaker 3: that have taken a strong stand on. opposing the overturning
49:21
Speaker 3: of Roe v. Wade, the number of people that are
49:24
Speaker 3: wrapped up and the nominees that have wrapped up in
49:26
Speaker 3: January 6th, which is turning out to be a big issue.
49:30
Speaker 3: The economic distinctions, if we could, I think we need
49:33
Speaker 3: to get some more individualized votes. Like Forget the packages.
49:37
Speaker 3: Let's just vote on lowering prescription drugs and let these
49:40
Speaker 3: people go back and explain. Even if we lose, explain
49:44
Speaker 3: to their voters why they think that you drive 40
49:47
Speaker 3: miles from Detroit to Windsor and you save $ 310 on insulin.
49:53
Speaker 3: I'd like to see the Republicans that can explain that.
49:56
Speaker 1: We've been talking about abortion a little bit. Just about
49:58
Speaker 1: every poll has shown that around 60% of the country
50:01
Speaker 1: disagrees with the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
50:05
Speaker 1: You obviously look deeper into this polling and conduct focus groups.
50:08
Speaker 1: How would you advise Democratic candidates in competitive states and
50:11
Speaker 1: districts to speak most effectively about abortion in the run-up
50:15
Speaker 1: to the midterms?
50:17
Speaker 3: Yes, I think that the extreme decision and the extreme
50:22
Speaker 3: nature of what the candidates are saying has really made
50:26
Speaker 3: this quite easy. We stand strongly for what was the
50:30
Speaker 3: law for 50 years. that women can make their own
50:34
Speaker 3: personal decisions with their family, their faith, their doctors, and
50:38
Speaker 3: that you cannot make this and should not be interfering
50:41
Speaker 3: in this decision as a politician until you have walked
50:44
Speaker 3: in their shoes, until you have faced these circumstances. This
50:48
Speaker 3: is basic health care. Abortion care is basic health care.
50:52
Speaker 3: And now they're going further. They want to eliminate it
50:54
Speaker 3: in the cases of rape and incest and health of
50:57
Speaker 3: the mother. They want to eliminate birth control. They want
51:00
Speaker 3: to eliminate in vitro fertilization, which has helped So many
51:03
Speaker 3: families have children. They want to go question and investigate miscarriages.
51:09
Speaker 3: This is way too far. This is a deal breaker
51:12
Speaker 3: for a lot of women. And it's motivating for a
51:15
Speaker 3: lot of women to come out. And that's a key
51:18
Speaker 3: factor for us because right now our side's more demoralized
51:22
Speaker 3: than their side is. They thought they were promised a lot.
51:25
Speaker 3: They're frustrated that things aren't getting done. And this is
51:28
Speaker 3: a real motivator. The choice is motivating here.
51:32
Speaker 1: Do you think candidates should be spelling out a more
51:34
Speaker 1: decisive midterm strategy around abortion? AOC has urged candidates to
51:39
Speaker 1: do this in Democratic leadership. David Plouffe has urged them
51:42
Speaker 1: to do this and say specifically, you know, if we
51:45
Speaker 1: hold the House and win two more Senate seats in November,
51:48
Speaker 1: we will eliminate the filibuster and codify Roe v. Wade.
51:51
Speaker 1: Do you think that level of specificity would help with voters?
51:54
Speaker 3: I think it would help a lot because what we
51:56
Speaker 3: know is that the positive, the asset model tests a
52:00
Speaker 3: lot better than the negative. and the failure. And when
52:04
Speaker 3: we just focus on the negative, we're getting some women
52:06
Speaker 3: in our focus groups saying, I'm worried it's too late.
52:09
Speaker 3: I'm worried we've already lost it. No, there is something
52:12
Speaker 3: we can do. It's within our hands. It's within our grasp.
52:16
Speaker 3: And we can codify Roe. And we have all the ingredients.
52:19
Speaker 3: Manchin has said he would go along. Biden has said
52:23
Speaker 3: he would go along. Everybody sees the need for this.
52:25
Speaker 3: We are unified in this. So I agree strongly we
52:28
Speaker 3: should make it an issue. But we should say what
52:30
Speaker 3: our positive alternative is. The governors have been very strong
52:34
Speaker 3: about this. Then the AG candidates, and that's a sleeper
52:38
Speaker 3: race where this is going to make a big difference.
52:40
Speaker 3: They've said, I won't prosecute. I won't extradite. And a
52:44
Speaker 3: lot of businesses are jumping in. And new polling out
52:47
Speaker 3: today shows voters overwhelmingly support their employers getting engaged in
52:53
Speaker 3: this as well and the businesses that they buy from
52:55
Speaker 3: getting engaged in this.
52:57
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, obviously, Democrats want to make this election
53:01
Speaker 1: a choice and not a referendum. Do you think that
53:04
Speaker 1: also applies to you mentioned, you know, some of that
53:06
Speaker 1: our basis is fairly demoralized right now. You talk to
53:09
Speaker 1: some demoralized Democrats and you talk about the choice. They say, yeah,
53:13
Speaker 1: of course, Republicans are awful. But why should I come
53:16
Speaker 1: out to vote just because, you know, I'm going to
53:18
Speaker 1: try to stop something from worse from happening? Is that
53:21
Speaker 1: the best we can do or are we going to
53:22
Speaker 1: actually get anything out of my vote? What do you
53:25
Speaker 1: sort of think about in terms of those voters?
53:28
Speaker 3: I think you've identified a key problem, which is we
53:32
Speaker 3: tend to try to motivate people with the negative. I
53:34
Speaker 3: think far more effective to motivate people with the positive.
53:38
Speaker 3: That's what we did in 2018. That's what we did
53:40
Speaker 3: in 2020. We stored 2018 as it was against Trump,
53:44
Speaker 3: but it was actually for something too. It was for
53:47
Speaker 3: protecting healthcare. So even when you're against a set of actors,
53:52
Speaker 3: You can be for something, as your own words suggested,
53:55
Speaker 3: around choice. Same thing with prescription drugs. And we should
53:59
Speaker 3: beat the people that are taking the wrong positions, Democrat
54:03
Speaker 3: or Republican. We have the power to do that.
54:06
Speaker 1: So you basically just you can't forget about both sides
54:08
Speaker 1: of the choice. Make it a choice election. Make it
54:10
Speaker 1: about what Republicans are going to do and what they've
54:12
Speaker 1: already done. But also make sure you tell people what
54:15
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to do if we give us a
54:17
Speaker 1: bigger majority.
54:18
Speaker 3: And I think we need some more votes on the record,
54:20
Speaker 3: like on prescription drugs, like on family care, you name it.
54:26
Speaker 3: We've got a lot of opportunities out there, making the
54:28
Speaker 3: wealthy pay their fair share of what they owe in
54:30
Speaker 3: taxes so that we can do what we need to do.
54:34
Speaker 3: These are contrasts where we can have a positive and
54:37
Speaker 3: a negative. And if we fall a few votes short, okay.
54:40
Speaker 3: It still makes it within goal. The party is clear.
54:43
Speaker 3: The candidates that you're voting for are clear. Let's support them.
54:47
Speaker 3: And let's elect a couple more of them and take
54:49
Speaker 3: this back.
54:51
Speaker 1: Last question. We were just talking about how Donald Trump
54:54
Speaker 1: might announce his presidential bid before the midterms. How do
54:57
Speaker 1: you think that would change the dynamics of the race?
55:00
Speaker 1: And how would you advise midterm candidates to adjust their
55:03
Speaker 1: message if that happens?
55:05
Speaker 3: Oh, I think it would be amazing because voters do
55:10
Speaker 3: not want Donald Trump. And there are a lot of
55:13
Speaker 3: women voters in particular who do not think maybe he
55:16
Speaker 3: had some good ideas, but the way he did things,
55:19
Speaker 3: we cannot go back to that division. We cannot go back.
55:22
Speaker 3: And then I think he's getting, I think the January
55:24
Speaker 3: 6th hearings are doing a really good job of showing
55:27
Speaker 3: someone who, uh, incited a mob plan violence is treasonous
55:33
Speaker 3: in my opinion. And in voters opinion is at least
55:36
Speaker 3: a criminal that should be in jail. So I think that, um,
55:41
Speaker 3: It couldn't be better. It's ironic. And it's a pure
55:44
Speaker 3: ego play because the Trump voters are already very energized.
55:48
Speaker 3: You don't need to do this to energize their base.
55:51
Speaker 3: But it will, I think, have an opportunity to energize
55:54
Speaker 3: our base because 2022 is the first vote against Donald
55:58
Speaker 3: Trump coming back in 2024.
56:00
Speaker 1: That's a good message as any right there. So, Linda Lake,
56:05
Speaker 1: thank you so much, as always, for joining Pod Save America.
56:07
Speaker 1: We appreciate you. Take care.
56:08
Speaker 3: Thank you so much.
56:14
Speaker 1: Thanks to Linda Lake for joining us today and have
56:17
Speaker 1: a good weekend, everyone. We'll see you next week. Bye everyone.
56:25
Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive
56:27
Speaker 1: producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is Andy Gardner Bernstein.
56:32
Speaker 1: Our producer is Haley Muse and Olivia Martinez is our
56:34
Speaker 1: associate producer. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle
56:38
Speaker 1: Seglin and Charlotte Landis sound engineer the show. Thanks to
56:41
Speaker 1: Tanya Sominator, Sandy Gerrard, Hallie Kiefer, Ari Schwartz, Andy Taft,
56:45
Speaker 1: and Justine Howe for production support. And to our digital team,
56:49
Speaker 1: Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford, Milo Kim, and Amelia Montu. Our
56:52
Speaker 1: episodes are uploaded as videos at youtube.com slash crookedmedia.