Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL 2020 Betting Preview, NFC Edition

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NFL 2020 Betting Preview, NFC Edition · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman in today Chris Ravan and Stucky
0:18
Speaker 1: Mix Stucky, our NFL experts who co host our award
0:21
Speaker 1: winning Action Network NFL podcast. We are going to go
0:24
Speaker 1: deep on an NFC preview Division odds conference, odds, Super
0:28
Speaker 1: Bowl odds. Who do they like? Who do I Like?
0:30
Speaker 1: Also a reminder, two weeks ago we as fans to
0:34
Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast. Those who did and use
0:38
Speaker 1: the winning phrase I feel for Colin and Stucky in
0:41
Speaker 1: their review became eligible to win a free Action Network hoodie.
0:46
Speaker 1: We had lots and lots of reviews. Thank you for that.
0:49
Speaker 1: Later in the show we will reveal one winner and
0:53
Speaker 1: we are doing another phrase that pays same practice. Go
0:56
Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast using the phrase I need
1:00
Speaker 1: a six pack. We all need a six pack right now.
1:02
Speaker 1: But my favorite Action Network podcast segment is from Ray
1:07
Speaker 1: Bond and Stucky in the award winning Action Network NFL
1:10
Speaker 1: podcast when they make their six picks. If we choose
1:14
Speaker 1: your review, you will win a free Action Network couldy. First,
1:19
Speaker 1: Let's do the main thing. The main thing, Raybond, Stucky
1:28
Speaker 1: good to see if Fella is good to hear your voices. Likewise, Chatte,
1:33
Speaker 1: when are you going to join us with an award
1:36
Speaker 1: on your podcast? You know what my greatest pride, Stucky,
1:42
Speaker 1: if that is your real name, is seeing the growth
1:46
Speaker 1: of the entire Action Network in aggregate. The fact that
1:50
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast has more listeners than mine, even
1:54
Speaker 1: though mine had been around longer and once upon a
1:56
Speaker 1: time had more listeners than the Action Network podcast. The
1:59
Speaker 1: fact that you guys are part of an award winning podcast.
2:02
Speaker 1: That to me is the ultimate reward. My awards are
2:07
Speaker 1: your awards, chatt and if you win any, I assume
2:09
Speaker 1: that they're mine as well. You know what else I
2:11
Speaker 1: would like if your money was my money. So if
2:14
Speaker 1: you could just start giving me the money you win
2:17
Speaker 1: from all your bets, starting with the bets we're gonna
2:19
Speaker 1: talk about today, that would be fantastic. Let's do it.
2:23
Speaker 1: But I'm excited to talk NFL. Let's go. You said
2:25
Speaker 1: you're to talk NFL. You did not say you were
2:27
Speaker 1: excited to actually let me partake in this money. Here
2:32
Speaker 1: we go, division odds. Here's how I want to break
2:34
Speaker 1: this down. We're in the first part. We're gonna do
2:36
Speaker 1: three parts in this uh in this episode, we're gonna
2:38
Speaker 1: do the first part division picks. There are four divisions.
2:43
Speaker 1: I want each of you to give me your first
2:46
Speaker 1: pick for your favorite pick of division futures. Raybon, you
2:52
Speaker 1: get to go first. I would say my favorite in
2:55
Speaker 1: terms of all around value is the Seattle Seahawks at
2:58
Speaker 1: plus two twenty to win the NFC West. And that's
3:02
Speaker 1: because if you look at Seattle, they've won nine or
3:05
Speaker 1: more games every single year with Russell Wilson, So you're
3:08
Speaker 1: you have this automatic built in floor. Most teams, I
3:11
Speaker 1: would be uh, kind of pessimistic or or kind of
3:14
Speaker 1: barished on the trade. I'm giving up so many picks
3:16
Speaker 1: for Jamal Adams, But with the Seahawks, Russell Wilson gets
3:19
Speaker 1: you to the fourth quarter pretty much weekend and week out.
3:22
Speaker 1: They needed an impact player like that on their defense.
3:25
Speaker 1: And I'm not saying Seattle is quite as good as
3:27
Speaker 1: they were in the Marshawn Heyday, but man, that's a
3:30
Speaker 1: dangerous team. Uh. Their odds imply about a thirty one
3:33
Speaker 1: percent chance to win that division. It's pretty wide open.
3:36
Speaker 1: I think the Niners will regress, So I like Seattle
3:39
Speaker 1: at plus two twenty to win the NFC West. I
3:43
Speaker 1: hate everything about that pick. I hate it, but Stucky,
3:47
Speaker 1: I want you to tell me what you think. You
3:51
Speaker 1: can't just say that and then just kick it to
3:53
Speaker 1: somebody elseide. You want me to tell you you want
3:55
Speaker 1: me to one one number one. This defense is dreadful.
4:01
Speaker 1: This defense could not be worse. And don't don't roll
4:04
Speaker 1: your eyes at me, Roban, like, this defense is so
4:08
Speaker 1: bad and it cannot be Russell Wilson miracle worker every
4:12
Speaker 1: single week in order to get them to nine ten
4:15
Speaker 1: eleven wins, number one, number two. Like to me, that
4:20
Speaker 1: division is changing hands every single year. It is becoming
4:24
Speaker 1: the NFC East. And of all people, of all people,
4:29
Speaker 1: to tell me you don't like a team that is
4:31
Speaker 1: led by Kyler Murray to potentially be the best odds
4:35
Speaker 1: in that division and the one where you think there
4:37
Speaker 1: could be the most value is insane to me because
4:40
Speaker 1: you were on the Kyler Murray Murray bandwagon before anybody else. Yeah, Kyra,
4:45
Speaker 1: worry is more like it. And listen, chat, I think
4:47
Speaker 1: you look at that. Seattle secondary Jamal Adams was ranked
4:51
Speaker 1: as a top five safety by Pro Football Focus last year.
4:54
Speaker 1: Shaquille Griffin, one of the corners ranked tenth out of
4:57
Speaker 1: one corners by PFF. We don't know if Dunbar will play,
5:01
Speaker 1: but if he does, h that was a top two corner,
5:04
Speaker 1: then you have uh, you know, the the safety Quandre
5:07
Speaker 1: Digs was also a top twenty five ranked players. So
5:09
Speaker 1: that secondary is not quite leg of the boom, but
5:12
Speaker 1: it's up there. It's dangerous. You still have Bobby Wagner,
5:15
Speaker 1: one of the top linebackers in the game, roam in
5:18
Speaker 1: the middle. Yes, they could use a little more talent
5:21
Speaker 1: on the defensive line, but that back seven is going
5:24
Speaker 1: to keep them in games. And that's all you need.
5:26
Speaker 1: And you say, hey, Russell Wilson cant do it year
5:28
Speaker 1: in a year out. He's never had a losing season.
5:31
Speaker 1: He's never had a losing season. That's a great bet
5:33
Speaker 1: in my opinion. When Seattle is not favored to win
5:36
Speaker 1: that division, their defensive line. PFF might have them as
5:39
Speaker 1: one of the worst defensive lines in football. Okay, so
5:41
Speaker 1: don't give me like their defensive line could use more talent.
5:44
Speaker 1: That is the cap out right there, Raybond, for someone
5:46
Speaker 1: who puts metrics and numbers and rigger behind every single
5:50
Speaker 1: thing you say, to say their defensive line could use
5:53
Speaker 1: a little more talent. Is like saying, uh, you know
5:56
Speaker 1: what it's got like the candy cane and it's a
5:59
Speaker 1: it's a little too minty for me. I actually don't
6:04
Speaker 1: mind it. I can't believe he's going against Jimmy G
6:06
Speaker 1: and um Kyler Mary two of his boys. I don't
6:09
Speaker 1: I'm not a buyer of Jimmy G and this The
6:11
Speaker 1: forty Night is gonna have a great running game. They're
6:13
Speaker 1: gonna have a great defense. But who they throwing the
6:16
Speaker 1: ball to? Their wide receiver corps decimated and they lost
6:19
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders. The Seahawks are a tricky team because you know,
6:22
Speaker 1: they actually won eleven games. Their Pythagoran wins were like
6:25
Speaker 1: eight and eight, and James like they were. They won
6:28
Speaker 1: like a million one session games. That's what they do.
6:29
Speaker 1: They just run the ball in the first that they
6:31
Speaker 1: get behind, and then they unleash Russell Wilson. Their offensive
6:34
Speaker 1: line is bad, their defensive line is really bad. I
6:37
Speaker 1: actually love the signing of Jamal Adams so much, and
6:41
Speaker 1: I don't care what the Sehawks give away. The Seahawks
6:43
Speaker 1: draft fourth round draft picks in the first round, so
6:45
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter that they give a round first round
6:47
Speaker 1: draft picks. He changes the defense. And then with digs,
6:50
Speaker 1: if you have two safeties in that cover three defense,
6:54
Speaker 1: that's what you that's what you They They had run
6:56
Speaker 1: a bunch of cover to last year and Pete Carroll's
6:58
Speaker 1: you know, he's a pure over three guy, but they've
7:00
Speaker 1: had no safety the last couple of years. You know,
7:03
Speaker 1: this is going back to Earl Thomas cam Chancellor. Now
7:06
Speaker 1: you have probably the best safety in the game. He's
7:08
Speaker 1: gonna help with the ron. You can cover the slot.
7:09
Speaker 1: I mean, you could do so many different things. And
7:12
Speaker 1: then obviously you upgraded your corner position as well. You
7:14
Speaker 1: have great linebackers, so I think that can make up
7:17
Speaker 1: for you know, this is a passing league that can
7:19
Speaker 1: make up for some of your weaknesses up front. The
7:22
Speaker 1: one thing that I don't like about them is this
7:25
Speaker 1: unique year in that you without fans, you're losing maybe
7:29
Speaker 1: the best home field advantage in the NFL, and the
7:33
Speaker 1: Seahawks will travel more miles than any other team in
7:36
Speaker 1: the NFL. Um and you know, you have to assume
7:39
Speaker 1: that this year travel is going to be difficult, burdensome.
7:43
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be as easy as it normally is
7:46
Speaker 1: so those they have those two things working against them. Um,
7:49
Speaker 1: but if I were to choose between the fort and Seahawks,
7:53
Speaker 1: I would go with the Seahawks. Um outside future shot,
7:56
Speaker 1: I might look at the Cardinals, but I don't hate
7:59
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. Pick I Jamal Adams upgrades that defense so much.
8:03
Speaker 1: Stuck mentioned every team in that division except the Rams,
8:06
Speaker 1: and I know Stuck is down on the Rams, But
8:08
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a pure long shot value, I
8:12
Speaker 1: think the Rams are probably the best one on the
8:14
Speaker 1: board in terms of just straight up like their plus
8:16
Speaker 1: five fifty and implies about a fifteen percent chance to
8:19
Speaker 1: win that division. And and and this is all stemming from
8:21
Speaker 1: the fact that I think San Francisco is just overvalued
8:23
Speaker 1: to win that division at minus one of six, that
8:25
Speaker 1: implies better than a fifty fifty chance, no way in
8:28
Speaker 1: that type of a division. But the Rams are plus
8:30
Speaker 1: five fifty. They've had eleven, thirteen and nine wins and
8:33
Speaker 1: average of eleven in the three years under Sean McVeigh. So, Um,
8:37
Speaker 1: the Rams could crap the bed and go seven and
8:39
Speaker 1: nine this year, but they also have a lot of
8:41
Speaker 1: upside um just best on when he's been able to
8:44
Speaker 1: do so I think there's a lot of value in
8:46
Speaker 1: this division in fading the Niners period stuck you did
8:49
Speaker 1: not do you want to give your sort of if
8:51
Speaker 1: you're drafting of division picks. Yeah. I hate their Rams
8:54
Speaker 1: by the way, they have no offensive line, golf stinks,
8:56
Speaker 1: and they lost all their defense, their best defensive players.
8:59
Speaker 1: They have two faive Donald and Ramsey, and there's a
9:01
Speaker 1: lot of other questions and US are decordinator. But if
9:03
Speaker 1: I'm going my number one pick out of all the
9:06
Speaker 1: teams in the NFC, I probably go with Dallas. I
9:10
Speaker 1: know that it's chalky, but I am really down on
9:14
Speaker 1: the Eagles, and I'm above market projections on Dallas and
9:18
Speaker 1: I'm wayed below the market on the Eagles. A lot
9:21
Speaker 1: of that has to do with their secondary. People think
9:23
Speaker 1: that Darius Slay is going to solve their secondary issues,
9:27
Speaker 1: which have been there's been a lot of them over
9:29
Speaker 1: the past couple of years. It's been their biggest weakness.
9:31
Speaker 1: I think he's over the hill and you know these corners,
9:34
Speaker 1: he's man to man corners, and he's a guy that
9:36
Speaker 1: follows the best receiver. They hit thirty around thirty, and
9:39
Speaker 1: they can fall off a cliff in production, and they
9:42
Speaker 1: can go from a top five ten corner to like
9:45
Speaker 1: bottom twenty easily. And that's what he was last year.
9:48
Speaker 1: Some people say I just wanted to get out of
9:49
Speaker 1: the Troy. I mean he still has to. He was
9:52
Speaker 1: playing man to man. It's all the Lions do. What
9:54
Speaker 1: was he just not covering? He just decided someplace. I'm
9:56
Speaker 1: just gonna stand here. No, his production was down. I
10:00
Speaker 1: you know, they're replacing their safety with a corner. I
10:02
Speaker 1: don't believe in Maddox, so I think they're they have
10:05
Speaker 1: no linebackers. They don't. I know people don't value linebackers
10:08
Speaker 1: and they only play one or two linebackers on most downs.
10:10
Speaker 1: But I mean, you're what they have the defensive lines.
10:13
Speaker 1: I'm not buying their defense. Their offensive line now doesn't
10:17
Speaker 1: have as much continuity in town as normal. Some way
10:19
Speaker 1: down on them, And I love what Dallas did in
10:22
Speaker 1: the off season in multi ways. You know, adding Lamb
10:25
Speaker 1: is their third Receiver's probably gonna learn a lot of
10:26
Speaker 1: three wide receiver sets. That offense is gonna be great.
10:28
Speaker 1: All they gotta do is find a center to replace Frederick,
10:32
Speaker 1: which is a big question. But if they can shure
10:33
Speaker 1: up that spot, in their offensive line stays healthy. This
10:35
Speaker 1: is one of the best offenses in the NFL. But
10:37
Speaker 1: I love what they did on the defensive side. You know,
10:39
Speaker 1: they signed all these guys on the defensive line. You
10:42
Speaker 1: know they brought they just brought in Griffin as well.
10:44
Speaker 1: They brought in po Um McCoy, but he got hurt.
10:50
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you're right, just keep by the way keeping
10:52
Speaker 1: up with all the injuries. Is he's done for thee
10:55
Speaker 1: of itself. Um, But that loss isn't even that big
10:58
Speaker 1: with with now you have you brought in Griffin. But
11:00
Speaker 1: most importantly, I know there's some questions in the secondary.
11:03
Speaker 1: You know, they lost Byron Jones. Their secondaries very young.
11:06
Speaker 1: But the new defensive coordinator, Michael is gonna be really
11:09
Speaker 1: aggressive and that's what they need to do to make
11:11
Speaker 1: up for some of the weak links at corner. They're
11:13
Speaker 1: gonna blitz a lot more. They just didn't last year
11:15
Speaker 1: for whatever reason. So I think the scheme changes on
11:18
Speaker 1: defense are going to benefit this this team that just
11:21
Speaker 1: has been underperforming a duf It's not been able to
11:23
Speaker 1: get takeaways, not being able to get key stops on
11:25
Speaker 1: third down, so low on the I can't see the
11:28
Speaker 1: Giants or the Redskins winning the division. If you want
11:31
Speaker 1: to argue for those, maybe Raybond will sure. I'm just
11:33
Speaker 1: low a lot lower in the Eagles and a lot
11:35
Speaker 1: higher on the Cowboys that I like the Cowboys to
11:37
Speaker 1: win that division alright, So right now, the Cowboys, I
11:41
Speaker 1: think it's Raftkings are minus one ten to win the
11:45
Speaker 1: NFC East. Raybond, what do you think of his choice
11:49
Speaker 1: for the NFC East and the Dallas Cowboys. This it's
11:52
Speaker 1: an important distinction for for the listeners out there, especially
11:56
Speaker 1: between what's most likely to happen in what it constitutes
12:01
Speaker 1: of a good value in terms of betting, because I
12:04
Speaker 1: do think the Cowboys are clearly the most likely team
12:07
Speaker 1: to win that division. I think everything that Stuck said
12:10
Speaker 1: in comparing them to the Eagles is correct. The Eagles
12:12
Speaker 1: went nine and seven last year. The Cowboys went eight
12:14
Speaker 1: and eight. But you look at their margin of victory,
12:16
Speaker 1: which is much more predictive of future performance than straight
12:20
Speaker 1: up win loss record. The Eagles average margin of victory
12:23
Speaker 1: one point nine, in the Cowboys seven point one. So
12:26
Speaker 1: the Cowboys were a far superior team that just ran
12:30
Speaker 1: into some bad luck. Uh. In terms of their you
12:32
Speaker 1: know the teams they played and kind of how everything
12:35
Speaker 1: played out. But that being said, uh, it's kind of
12:39
Speaker 1: the same deal with the forty niners. No team is really,
12:43
Speaker 1: in my opinion, gonna be good enough that they should
12:46
Speaker 1: be fifty fifty or better to win a division. Those
12:50
Speaker 1: are just kind of odds that are playing on the hype.
12:52
Speaker 1: With the Cowboys, um, some of the common things cited
12:55
Speaker 1: for for this, like the addition of Cede Lamb, which
12:58
Speaker 1: is a great addition, but you look at who he's replacing,
13:01
Speaker 1: Randall Cob last year average ten yards to target, fifteen
13:04
Speaker 1: yards to catch. It's unlikely that Lamb actually does better
13:08
Speaker 1: than that. So in terms of your actual you know,
13:11
Speaker 1: adding points to their their spread or their you know rating,
13:15
Speaker 1: it's probably a wash. You're not really going to improve
13:17
Speaker 1: on that. So the offense is kind of maxed out
13:20
Speaker 1: where you have it. I think the defense has room
13:21
Speaker 1: for improvement and that's gonna be key. But at fifty
13:24
Speaker 1: that better than fifty to fifty fifty fifty odds. I
13:27
Speaker 1: can't take the Cowboys. The Eagles are way over value
13:30
Speaker 1: to there. At plus one forty, that implies a forty
13:32
Speaker 1: two percent chance, and that leaves me. And this is
13:34
Speaker 1: disgusting because again it's a difference between betting value and
13:38
Speaker 1: what's most likely to happen. But that just leaves me
13:39
Speaker 1: with the Giants at ten to one, because the Cowboys
13:43
Speaker 1: are not better than fifty fifty to win the division.
13:45
Speaker 1: The Eagles aren't forty two percent. The Giants are better
13:48
Speaker 1: than ten percent to win that division. I'm not saying
13:50
Speaker 1: it's by a ton, but they're better than ten percent,
13:53
Speaker 1: and they may be almost double that. So if you're
13:55
Speaker 1: looking for value, it's disgusting. But the it's the Giants
13:59
Speaker 1: or bust the why Sington football team. I have their
14:01
Speaker 1: under on five and a half wins, so we're now
14:03
Speaker 1: even going to go into that that that team has
14:05
Speaker 1: had it for disaster in my opinion, but um value
14:08
Speaker 1: on the Giants. In my opinion, dude, I am totally
14:10
Speaker 1: with you on the Giants. Like to me that, actually,
14:14
Speaker 1: I know you say it's disgusting. I say it's I
14:17
Speaker 1: say it's kind of a no brainer like for all
14:20
Speaker 1: And again, I'm not doing this to bet like the
14:25
Speaker 1: obvious team at sort of low numbers, right, I'm doing
14:29
Speaker 1: this because I want to invest a little bit now
14:32
Speaker 1: and make a little bit later, and if I lose it,
14:35
Speaker 1: it's not so much that I'm like that disappointed. Right,
14:38
Speaker 1: So I love, love, love the Giants attend to one.
14:42
Speaker 1: But neither of you, neither of you have really given
14:45
Speaker 1: the team that has sort of the best the best chance,
14:48
Speaker 1: the best value, Okay, because that is the Chicago Bears,
14:55
Speaker 1: who are about plus three eighty. I think we got
14:58
Speaker 1: him at DraftKings. I got him earlier this year. I
15:02
Speaker 1: got him at plus four to win the NFC North.
15:06
Speaker 1: A couple of things number one, and I gotta say
15:09
Speaker 1: I also love the Vikings as a Super Bowl contender,
15:12
Speaker 1: and we'll get to that later in the show. But um, Chicago.
15:17
Speaker 1: They were eight and eight with Mitch Drubisky, and I
15:20
Speaker 1: got a lot of issues with Matt Nige as a
15:22
Speaker 1: Chicago guy. I do feel like, especially two years ago,
15:26
Speaker 1: he made really dreadful decisions, like in moments of the
15:29
Speaker 1: game where he should have left Rubisky have the ball.
15:32
Speaker 1: Instead he got very conservative when they were still out
15:35
Speaker 1: of field goal range and then put field goal kickers
15:38
Speaker 1: in bad spots. And like it's become a little bit
15:40
Speaker 1: of a joke, how sort of the Bears kicking woes.
15:42
Speaker 1: But two years ago. I put that on age and
15:45
Speaker 1: sort of bad decision making and how we managed the
15:47
Speaker 1: game plan as the game got later in the game,
15:50
Speaker 1: as it got later in the game. Last year goes
15:52
Speaker 1: eight and eight with sort of a lot of rash
15:53
Speaker 1: of injuries and a little bit of aggression. This defense
15:56
Speaker 1: is still really good like it is. It is low
16:00
Speaker 1: did with playmakers. Eddie Goldman is sitting out, so they're
16:03
Speaker 1: losing something on the defensive line. But you talk about
16:06
Speaker 1: linebacker corps, you talk about defensive backfield, it's loaded. And
16:09
Speaker 1: I actually think Nick Foles is an upgrade over Drabinsky,
16:11
Speaker 1: especially playing again with Matt Nagy, who he's been had
16:14
Speaker 1: so much success with. So give me the Bears at
16:17
Speaker 1: four to one in the division. We're like, nobody has
16:19
Speaker 1: written about the Packers not being as good anymore more
16:23
Speaker 1: than you raybon Um, and so like, I think the
16:27
Speaker 1: Packers regressed, the lines are in a good The Bears
16:29
Speaker 1: competition is the Vikings. Yeah, I totally agree. Um. I
16:33
Speaker 1: actually bet the Bears around that same number, if something
16:35
Speaker 1: like four fifty five a couple of months ago. I
16:38
Speaker 1: think this is a three team race. No disrespected Detroit.
16:42
Speaker 1: I just don't know if it's quite working there. I
16:43
Speaker 1: don't know if the town is there, even though I
16:45
Speaker 1: have a lot of respect from Matthew Stafford. Um, but
16:48
Speaker 1: as you said, Chad, this is a three team race. UM.
16:51
Speaker 1: I know Stux Packers. Stuck had a great future on
16:53
Speaker 1: the Packers last year, and and he got him all
16:55
Speaker 1: the way to the NFC Championship. However, I think you
16:58
Speaker 1: know Stuck, you and I both could agreed at the
17:00
Speaker 1: Sackers got a little bit lucky last year. You look
17:02
Speaker 1: at their margin of victory it was three point nine
17:05
Speaker 1: compared to the Vikings which was six point five. You know,
17:08
Speaker 1: Cowboys seven one st seven three, and the Cowboys with
17:11
Speaker 1: the fifth best team in the NFC in terms of
17:13
Speaker 1: margin of victory, I don't think they got better. I
17:17
Speaker 1: don't think that Matt Laflour is quite on the same
17:19
Speaker 1: page with the front office. I think they're making decisions
17:22
Speaker 1: for the futures and he's trying to win now and
17:23
Speaker 1: he did a good job of it last year. Um.
17:25
Speaker 1: And that can't be dismissed. But ultimately, um, the numbers
17:28
Speaker 1: suggest the Packers are going to come back to the mean.
17:31
Speaker 1: I've seen nothing out of Aaron Rodgers, Uh, to to
17:33
Speaker 1: change that opinion. He's been average for five years now.
17:36
Speaker 1: And uh, the Vikings they lost some key town and
17:39
Speaker 1: it lost a good coach in Kevin Stefansk, a good
17:41
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. I should say, Um, you know they still
17:44
Speaker 1: have you know, Zimmer and Kubiak, but uh, without Stefon Diggs,
17:49
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be tougher the defense, kind of
17:51
Speaker 1: bringing in a whole new secondary. The Bears still have
17:54
Speaker 1: that defense. You're getting the quarterback discount. That's what you're
17:57
Speaker 1: really getting with the Bears because they both they're shaky,
18:00
Speaker 1: and none of them are better than Aaron Rodgers or
18:02
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. But that defenses is the best in the
18:06
Speaker 1: in the division. And it's a much closer three team
18:08
Speaker 1: race than you know the Bears with their plus three
18:12
Speaker 1: eight implied twenty chance chance. So I actually loved that
18:16
Speaker 1: pick their twenty and twelve and two years with nag Stuck.
18:21
Speaker 1: I hate. I hate that pick. I hate the best.
18:22
Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, I think Mitch Mitch Bortles
18:25
Speaker 1: is the worst quarterback of the NFL. You've just been bordled,
18:30
Speaker 1: and I actually don't think falls is that much better
18:33
Speaker 1: than that. He goes in there. But this team number one,
18:34
Speaker 1: and no matter who the quarterback is, I worry about
18:37
Speaker 1: voices in their ear right. You got a new quarterbacks coach,
18:40
Speaker 1: a new passing in quarterback offensive coordinator, but the Naggies
18:43
Speaker 1: calling plays um and then you have no preseason shortened prep.
18:46
Speaker 1: But they can't run the ball because their offensive line
18:49
Speaker 1: can't run block and they did nothing to upgrade their offensively.
18:51
Speaker 1: They're opening a new offensive line coach can come in
18:53
Speaker 1: and work magic um. But their defense I think is
18:58
Speaker 1: actually overrated. Like Goldman's gonna hurt up front, but they've
19:01
Speaker 1: had huge losses in the secondary of the past couple
19:04
Speaker 1: of years. I mean, you're you're going and I think
19:08
Speaker 1: Eddie Jackson moving back the free safety could help and
19:10
Speaker 1: they could create more turnovers. But you're gonna have busters screen.
19:14
Speaker 1: I mean, and and hope and hope that Jalen Johnson,
19:18
Speaker 1: the rookie could come in and play corner when you're
19:20
Speaker 1: playing three corners. Um. So I don't think the secondary
19:24
Speaker 1: is as good as people say. And obviously they've lost
19:26
Speaker 1: Amos uh you know a couple of years ago now Dicks,
19:29
Speaker 1: and you know they've had to turnover at corner as well,
19:33
Speaker 1: and I think that the Goldman loss really hurts the front.
19:35
Speaker 1: But I don't I don't believe in this offensive at all. Um,
19:38
Speaker 1: I don't see it. I think the division is wide open.
19:40
Speaker 1: I mean, the Vikings had a lot of losses on defense.
19:44
Speaker 1: They obviously they're relying with Jefferson to coming to be
19:46
Speaker 1: the second wide receiver, and you know, they still questioned
19:50
Speaker 1: the offensive line. So I think that they're worse off
19:52
Speaker 1: the Packers. Yeah, they got extremely lucky last year and
19:56
Speaker 1: they didn't address any of their needs. They still can't
19:58
Speaker 1: stop the run. Their draft was horrible. I don't know
20:01
Speaker 1: what they're doing. Maybe they're just gonna line up and
20:02
Speaker 1: run power. I I mean, maybe that's why they drafted
20:05
Speaker 1: a tight end and another running back. They still don't
20:07
Speaker 1: have any receivers, so maybe they're just gonna try to
20:10
Speaker 1: run power. I like a high school team with Aaron
20:12
Speaker 1: Rodgers is the quarterback. I don't know. So I think
20:13
Speaker 1: if you're gonna take a shot in this division, you
20:15
Speaker 1: take a shot with the Lions because you take the
20:17
Speaker 1: lowest odds and you just take you take a quarterback
20:20
Speaker 1: that is capable, and you hope that in Bapatris just
20:23
Speaker 1: cover one heavy that Accuda comes in, their new corners
20:26
Speaker 1: come in and they can lock down on the outside
20:28
Speaker 1: and that can go a long way and and creating
20:30
Speaker 1: a much better defense than they had last year. So
20:33
Speaker 1: if you're gonna take a shot in a wide open division,
20:37
Speaker 1: I'd go with the Lines any day over the Bears
20:40
Speaker 1: so stuck and and I actually don't hate that. So
20:43
Speaker 1: I'm guessing that you would even though you don't like
20:45
Speaker 1: the Bears, you like your choice of the Lions, like
20:47
Speaker 1: you do agree that the Vikings and Packers shouldn't have
20:51
Speaker 1: a combined sevent in pride odds to win that division,
20:54
Speaker 1: Like you know what I mean? Like is that something? Yeah? Okay? Yeah?
20:58
Speaker 1: And then also you know it's in this year where
21:02
Speaker 1: you could have you know, COVID, a COVID outbreak and
21:05
Speaker 1: the team when there's shortened prep and you're gonna see
21:08
Speaker 1: increased injuries. You know, you could see that too for
21:12
Speaker 1: a really important player on a certain team, say Aaron
21:14
Speaker 1: Rodgers goes down, We're just someone really important. With that,
21:16
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be more soft tissue injuries that
21:19
Speaker 1: increases the uncertainty, and obviously, um I think would lead
21:24
Speaker 1: you to maybe want to take one of the longest
21:25
Speaker 1: shots in this division because I think this division is
21:28
Speaker 1: wide open, and you know, it's it's one of those
21:31
Speaker 1: where if you kind of believe in a team, like
21:34
Speaker 1: say you're you believe in the lines, maybe you take
21:36
Speaker 1: a flyer on you know, a Super Bowl future or
21:39
Speaker 1: the Bears, because not only could they potentially win this
21:42
Speaker 1: division either one of them, but there's a seventh team
21:46
Speaker 1: that gets in with the expanded playoffs, seventeen that gets
21:48
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. And remember, if there's not gonna be fans,
21:51
Speaker 1: then it's gonna be easier for teams to go on
21:54
Speaker 1: the road, uh in the playoffs than it would be
21:56
Speaker 1: saying you have to go to like, um, you know,
22:00
Speaker 1: uh in the a f C. If you went to
22:01
Speaker 1: a Kansas city, Um, you know, to play a road
22:04
Speaker 1: game without fans. So um, I think this is a
22:06
Speaker 1: division where you take a shot. That's the argument for golf.
22:09
Speaker 1: By the way, stuff, you know, like as much as
22:11
Speaker 1: I know you're down on him, and you know, I
22:13
Speaker 1: think he's pretty shaky, but you know, no no fans,
22:16
Speaker 1: so he can hear someone with every play. I think
22:18
Speaker 1: he pointed it out one of our earlier podcasts. Yeah,
22:20
Speaker 1: I said, he might be the one that benefits the
22:22
Speaker 1: most because he excels when McVeigh can just tell him
22:26
Speaker 1: what to do exactly, Which is crazy that they sign
22:29
Speaker 1: up all that money because they could put Raybon or
22:31
Speaker 1: Chat in their quarterback and as long as it's quiet,
22:33
Speaker 1: you just tell him here, golf throat here, throat here.
22:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe there's no noise helps goff and he
22:38
Speaker 1: has a huge year. So what I love about this
22:42
Speaker 1: is like you're saying Detroit, which I'm shaking my head
22:45
Speaker 1: at and discussed. Yet what you say about Detroit are
22:48
Speaker 1: all the reasons that Raybon says the Giants and all
22:51
Speaker 1: the reasons that I say the Cardinals, And yet we
22:53
Speaker 1: have we all have such disdain for all of those
22:57
Speaker 1: long shot picks because we have such belief in the
23:00
Speaker 1: other picks we're making at the top of the board.
23:03
Speaker 1: So let me summarize here. So, but but you a
23:05
Speaker 1: quarter you need to say, like there's certain things that
23:06
Speaker 1: the the the cow I think the Cowboys are really good,
23:10
Speaker 1: and there's no really good team in this division and
23:12
Speaker 1: in the NFC North. But like the Giants, they don't
23:15
Speaker 1: I don't think they have a great quarterback. They don't
23:17
Speaker 1: have a secondary, they don't have an offensive line, and
23:19
Speaker 1: they don't have an edge rusher. So like these are
23:21
Speaker 1: all the things you need in the NFL. The lines
23:24
Speaker 1: have a quarterback, they have an offense, they have a
23:28
Speaker 1: potentially good secondary with with potential, so they have more
23:33
Speaker 1: things of the Giants in a much worse division, um,
23:36
Speaker 1: which is why I would go with a longer shot
23:39
Speaker 1: in this division compared to the NFC. I mean to
23:41
Speaker 1: be fair though that I ain again I've called the
23:44
Speaker 1: Giants disgusting, so I'm not I don't want to be
23:45
Speaker 1: out here truth thuring for the Giants. But Daniel Jones
23:48
Speaker 1: really had one issue last year and it was fumbling.
23:51
Speaker 1: That was his rookie year. He's generally impressively at three
23:55
Speaker 1: four or more touchdown games, you know, five yard games
23:59
Speaker 1: and a multiple touchdown rushing game. He can take a
24:02
Speaker 1: year to leap COVID or not. Um. The pass catchers
24:04
Speaker 1: are all really good around him, and you know they
24:07
Speaker 1: got Bradberry Bakers entering year two, like they have upside.
24:10
Speaker 1: I guess that's what I'm trying to say. Bakers, Bakers.
24:16
Speaker 1: They still have a secon quarter and who's clothing. Well, honestly,
24:19
Speaker 1: Baker might as well have been in jail last year
24:20
Speaker 1: the way the way he was playing both. But no,
24:22
Speaker 1: My point is they have upside. The Giants have some upside.
24:26
Speaker 1: I think in that division where you made great points,
24:29
Speaker 1: the Eagles were probably too high in them. And the Cowboys,
24:32
Speaker 1: I just don't think are substantially better than they were
24:35
Speaker 1: last year. Let me summarize, because we got one more
24:37
Speaker 1: division I want to get to, and then we got
24:38
Speaker 1: to get to conference the super Bowl. Right now. In
24:41
Speaker 1: the NFC East, Stucky, there's not like the Giants, Raybond
24:45
Speaker 1: likes the Giants, Stuck. He likes the Cowboys. In the
24:47
Speaker 1: NFC North, Chad loves, loves, loves the Bears Stuck. He
24:52
Speaker 1: likes the Lions in the In the NFC West, Raybond
24:55
Speaker 1: love Seattle. Stucky could take Seattle or Arizona. Chad loves Arizona.
25:01
Speaker 1: That leaves a reason I left. I'm glad we're doing
25:03
Speaker 1: this conference, this division last NFC South. It is the
25:07
Speaker 1: milk toast of NFL conferences. Nobody will ever care about
25:12
Speaker 1: this conference. The only reason anyone was talking about is
25:14
Speaker 1: because Tampa Bay has Tom Brady right now it's a
25:17
Speaker 1: two team race. If New Orleans and Tampa Bay give
25:20
Speaker 1: me any reason to take a team other than New
25:22
Speaker 1: Orleans Tampa Bay in the NFC seth, I mean just
25:25
Speaker 1: some of the arguments that I made earlier with uncertainty.
25:30
Speaker 1: So I think that if you're going to take any
25:32
Speaker 1: other team, you have to look at the Falcons because
25:35
Speaker 1: they have a quarterback who's gotten to a Super Bowl
25:38
Speaker 1: and cost me a lot of money, but they have
25:41
Speaker 1: at the quarterback. Their defense I had a lot of
25:43
Speaker 1: questions about, but it was really improved the whole second
25:46
Speaker 1: half of last year when they changed who's who's calling plays.
25:49
Speaker 1: I still don't believe in the defense, but the offense
25:51
Speaker 1: at least has potential, right and you have Tom Brady,
25:56
Speaker 1: who's what's gonna be forty three and Drew Brees. There's
25:59
Speaker 1: not The Stints actually have quarterback depth though, so if
26:02
Speaker 1: something happens either one of them, Um but Brady, there's
26:05
Speaker 1: questions on the with the tackles on the Tampa offensive line,
26:08
Speaker 1: he's gonna be He's not gonna be digging a ducant
26:10
Speaker 1: in this offense. He's gonna be asked to throw more downfield.
26:12
Speaker 1: He's gonna need time, he's gonna take more hits, so
26:15
Speaker 1: there's some injury risk there. There could be some regression
26:18
Speaker 1: for the Buck secondary. The Saints are just so solid
26:21
Speaker 1: all around, and now they have quarterback depth. You know,
26:23
Speaker 1: you have Winston and you have Hill that really eliminates
26:26
Speaker 1: a lot of the risk where if Breeze gets hurt
26:29
Speaker 1: or if Breeze you know, gets COVID for a couple
26:31
Speaker 1: of weeks or something. So it's really hard to make
26:35
Speaker 1: the case. But if you're going to, you have to
26:37
Speaker 1: say Falcons because you need a I mean, the Panthers
26:39
Speaker 1: are just a disaster. They're changing coaches and schemes on
26:43
Speaker 1: both sides. They have a first year quarterback, they have
26:46
Speaker 1: ten to twelve new starters. This is not what you
26:48
Speaker 1: want to be doing this year without preseason and limited prep.
26:52
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna make the case, it's for the Falcons.
26:56
Speaker 1: But it's tough because the Saints are so solt and
26:58
Speaker 1: FQB depth. The Saints and the Bucks have a combined
27:06
Speaker 1: implied odd probability according to the the Oazit Draft Kings
27:10
Speaker 1: sports Book UH to win this division. That's way too high,
27:13
Speaker 1: So that right there is a reason to look else where,
27:17
Speaker 1: And I do agree with Stuck. The Falcons have to
27:20
Speaker 1: be that team because Matt Ryan he can have those
27:23
Speaker 1: high upside years. Um, he's proven it in the past.
27:27
Speaker 1: You know another you know another year back to get
27:30
Speaker 1: acclimated with Dirt Cutter when his you know, his formal
27:32
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. The Falcon schedule, it's tough. I mean you
27:36
Speaker 1: have Seattle, Dallas, you know, the Bears, pack, the Saints
27:41
Speaker 1: a couple of times, obviously, the Bucks a couple of times,
27:43
Speaker 1: you play the Chiefs. What can you get Denver in Atlanta?
27:46
Speaker 1: So you don't have to go to Denver Um, but
27:48
Speaker 1: you're going to you know you're gonna play the Chargers
27:50
Speaker 1: is another kind of pesky team with a good defense.
27:53
Speaker 1: The Falcons are actually one of my favorite wind total
27:56
Speaker 1: underbets at seven and a half. So it's tough for
27:58
Speaker 1: me to say go bet them at at eton one
28:00
Speaker 1: doing the division, I would I would just take the
28:04
Speaker 1: Bucks if I'm forced to pick a team. Um, just
28:06
Speaker 1: because I think that it really is a two team race.
28:09
Speaker 1: I think the odds are inflated for the Saints and
28:12
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Saints minus one thirty the Bucks plus one fifty.
28:15
Speaker 1: But um, the Bucks. That's a chance where there's a
28:18
Speaker 1: Saints fifty seven percent. I don't think there's that wide
28:21
Speaker 1: of a gap. I think the Bucks are still, you know,
28:24
Speaker 1: all things being considered, UM, a lot closer to the
28:28
Speaker 1: Saints than that. Their defense was top five in d
28:30
Speaker 1: v o A last year. I still think it's on
28:32
Speaker 1: the way up. Uh. And I think that a lot
28:34
Speaker 1: of Tim Brady's issues last year had to do with
28:36
Speaker 1: the lack of separation for the New England pass catchers,
28:39
Speaker 1: the reports at the camp Nikio Harry still not getting separation,
28:42
Speaker 1: Julian Edelman. You know, thirty three last year not a
28:46
Speaker 1: separation type. Brady read the Weegn throwaways. He won't have
28:48
Speaker 1: to do that this year with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, uh,
28:52
Speaker 1: Rob Gronkowski, O J. Howard and those guys. So I
28:57
Speaker 1: think it's the Bucks are nothing, but you know, the
28:59
Speaker 1: pay if there's they're interesting. I think you're probably a
29:02
Speaker 1: better off betting than week to week. But just remember
29:05
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridge order twenty seven all time against the spread
29:11
Speaker 1: as a starting quarterback, so they could beat expectations. I
29:14
Speaker 1: don't know what that means or what that translates to,
29:17
Speaker 1: but just keep that in mind. What I love about
29:19
Speaker 1: this right now is Milman is going all in on
29:24
Speaker 1: the Bears at the longest odds with his number one pick,
29:28
Speaker 1: whereas Raybon goes in with the Seahawks a a kind
29:32
Speaker 1: of chalky ish pick, but you're getting decent number at
29:34
Speaker 1: plus two eighty and then they're Stucky Stuck. He's doing this, Stuck,
29:38
Speaker 1: He's like this square. Stucky's so square. You know why,
29:42
Speaker 1: because Stucky is going with the Cowboys that mine is
29:44
Speaker 1: one ten to win the NFC East. Do don't even
29:47
Speaker 1: try to defend yourself, Stucky. We're moving on before we
29:50
Speaker 1: get to the next segment. Don't forget the phrase that pays.
29:53
Speaker 1: At the end of the show, we're going to announce
29:55
Speaker 1: the winner of the phrase the pays. And if you
29:57
Speaker 1: want to win a free action network, Coody, I need
30:00
Speaker 1: a six pack. Use it in your review in honor
30:02
Speaker 1: of Raybond and Stucky in their award winning Action Network
30:05
Speaker 1: NFL pod. If we randomly choose you, you in an
30:08
Speaker 1: Action network, Houldie, That's what I know. It's time to
30:12
Speaker 1: do another thing, another thing. Let's do our conference picks.
30:21
Speaker 1: And this year, with so much uncertainty, it's hard for, Like,
30:24
Speaker 1: I don't want to lay out a lot of money
30:26
Speaker 1: on futures, but I do want to try and take
30:31
Speaker 1: advantage of as I was alluded to before, this seventh
30:35
Speaker 1: playoff spot in the expanded playoff format and then potentially
30:38
Speaker 1: with no fans. So what I've looked for is teams
30:42
Speaker 1: that could potentially be peeking late in the year, that
30:46
Speaker 1: have a capable quarterback or a quarterback that you think
30:49
Speaker 1: could end up, you know, taking a leap and getting there.
30:52
Speaker 1: It's like in the a f C, I look at
30:54
Speaker 1: a potential like the Browns, right, and also because they're
30:57
Speaker 1: a tougher division, that's seven playoff spot is huge for
31:02
Speaker 1: that extra wild card in a in a pretty weak
31:04
Speaker 1: a FC outside of the Ravens and Chiefs. And then
31:08
Speaker 1: you know, also the Broncos. If you if you believe
31:11
Speaker 1: we're only talking about the NFC, I know, I know,
31:14
Speaker 1: but I'm leading into my point the Broncos. If you believe,
31:16
Speaker 1: in no wonder every podcast Stucky does comes in it
31:20
Speaker 1: like two hours long. Well listen, I'm just giving you
31:22
Speaker 1: my logic because I like the s C features more
31:24
Speaker 1: in the NSC anyway, But if you're looking in the
31:26
Speaker 1: NFC again, it would be the Lions, but I think
31:30
Speaker 1: better than that is the Cardinals right for two longer shots,
31:33
Speaker 1: and I don't really like investing anything under ten to one.
31:37
Speaker 1: I hate Cliff Kingsbury with a passion, but Kyler Mary
31:40
Speaker 1: I believe in if you think he takes his next step,
31:43
Speaker 1: they get better in the red zone that they added
31:46
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins. The defense last year was dreadful, but I
31:50
Speaker 1: mean Patrick Peterson, you're without both your corners for most
31:53
Speaker 1: of the year. You know, Byron Murphy got thrown into
31:56
Speaker 1: the Wolves. He has a lot more experience. Now at corner,
31:59
Speaker 1: you add Isaiah Simmons or they're starting it inside linebacker.
32:01
Speaker 1: They added some other pieces of linebacker which I think
32:04
Speaker 1: will help that defense. So a team that I think
32:07
Speaker 1: can get to like eight and eight, nine and seven,
32:11
Speaker 1: and then you have a quarterback like Kyler Murray improving
32:14
Speaker 1: as they get into the playoffs. I think that's the
32:16
Speaker 1: team I would look for from a futures perspective. In
32:19
Speaker 1: the unfctate's treading on your Kyler Murray territory. Yeah, I'm
32:27
Speaker 1: proud of you, Stuck, I'm not quite there with the Cardinals.
32:31
Speaker 1: I try to find a mix of value. And I
32:34
Speaker 1: do agree you're generally looking for you know, you don't
32:36
Speaker 1: want like five to one odds or something. But I
32:39
Speaker 1: also try to kind of look at it from the
32:41
Speaker 1: perspective of, um, you know, we do have some proven
32:44
Speaker 1: teams and some proven quarterbacks in this conference, and I
32:48
Speaker 1: think it's gonna come down to a few teams, and um,
32:50
Speaker 1: that leads me back to the one that I see
32:52
Speaker 1: it the best value at. It was the same one
32:54
Speaker 1: I see the best value at to win their division.
32:56
Speaker 1: In that Seattle they are plus ten fifty at draft kings,
32:59
Speaker 1: so it's a little better than ten to one. That
33:01
Speaker 1: implies a nine percent chance of them to win the NFC.
33:04
Speaker 1: Guess what they've wonted Russell Wilson seasons as a pro.
33:09
Speaker 1: They've averaged ten point seven five wins per year with Russ. Again,
33:14
Speaker 1: this is just a high floor team that because of
33:17
Speaker 1: Russ and because of the Adams edition, also has a
33:19
Speaker 1: high ceiling. And I think one of the best things
33:21
Speaker 1: about taking Seattle or a team from the NFC West
33:24
Speaker 1: in general. So you know, I don't hate the Cardinals.
33:26
Speaker 1: I think the Niners still have a chance to just overvalue.
33:29
Speaker 1: But and Rams you know, have a chance as well.
33:31
Speaker 1: But the great thing about taking a team from the
33:33
Speaker 1: NFC West like Seattle is that they're gonna be battle tested.
33:37
Speaker 1: Like if they get to a point where they're in position,
33:39
Speaker 1: which they do every year, they're winning team every year.
33:41
Speaker 1: They're gonna have played the Niners twice, They're gonna have
33:44
Speaker 1: played the Cardinals twice. They're gonna have played the Rams twice. Um.
33:47
Speaker 1: So you look across the NFC and you're really now
33:50
Speaker 1: talking about the Saints and the Bucks. Is like the
33:53
Speaker 1: teams that you would worry about with Seattle and uh,
33:55
Speaker 1: you know, Russell Wilson is one of those two quarterbacks
33:58
Speaker 1: that you know, when you're in the fourth quarter, it's
34:00
Speaker 1: Russ or it's Breeze or it's Brady. You're not using
34:02
Speaker 1: you're not counting Russ out. So I love Seattle at
34:06
Speaker 1: at ten to one. Um, that's my favorite pick, my
34:09
Speaker 1: number two. Uh, little chalk here, But I'd still look
34:11
Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay. Uh. You know, plus seven fifty implies
34:14
Speaker 1: about a twelve percent chance. Brady has been to Uh
34:17
Speaker 1: you know, he's been a conference champion in forty seven
34:19
Speaker 1: percent of his seasons as a New England starter, nine
34:23
Speaker 1: of nineteen. Uh, those are still interesting odds. I know
34:26
Speaker 1: you you know, Bruce Arians isn't Belichick, But you're talking
34:29
Speaker 1: about four, you know, a quarter of the of the
34:32
Speaker 1: odds of which Brady has has done this. So, uh,
34:35
Speaker 1: you know, I still like I still like those odds.
34:37
Speaker 1: But nothing's beating Seattle better than tend to one for me.
34:40
Speaker 1: You know what Raybund. Some people would say that Belichick
34:43
Speaker 1: isn't Bruce Arians. Some people would say that Cam Newton
34:47
Speaker 1: is no Jared's did him? Alright? So here's what's interesting
34:51
Speaker 1: about this. I have three teams that I love that
34:55
Speaker 1: I've already bet Super Bowl futures on that are from
34:58
Speaker 1: the I've bet four Super Bowl five super Bowl futures,
35:01
Speaker 1: and three of them are on NFC teams. Are you
35:04
Speaker 1: ready if you said the Bears, I'm leaving the podcast.
35:07
Speaker 1: I've got the Cardinals at fifty one, I've got the
35:11
Speaker 1: Vikings at five to one. Yeah, and I have the
35:16
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. It for you, bye, damn well. For all
35:23
Speaker 1: the reasons I like him to win the Division, I
35:24
Speaker 1: also like him to win the Super Bowl. Help me
35:27
Speaker 1: decide between these three teams. You guys are the experts.
35:30
Speaker 1: I'm just a dude, right, So I'll take the Bears
35:34
Speaker 1: out of it, because clearly stuck he hits them, Vikings
35:36
Speaker 1: or Cardinals. Which team do I take to win the conference?
35:41
Speaker 1: The Bears? Do you think so? Right? Nick Foles the
35:44
Speaker 1: only one who won the Super Bowl? Right? Three teams?
35:48
Speaker 1: The Bears are the only one who the quarterback who
35:50
Speaker 1: has won the Super Bowl. The Bears, to me just
35:52
Speaker 1: have enough upside where Nick Foles could be dreadful. He
35:55
Speaker 1: could also have one even whisky. They went twelve and
35:57
Speaker 1: four and he was dare I say, like good in
36:00
Speaker 1: two thousand and eighty. I don't know how, but my
36:02
Speaker 1: point is the Bears have upside. These things never turned
36:05
Speaker 1: out quite how you think. They are kind of in
36:08
Speaker 1: this category. Last year, all of a sudden their defense
36:10
Speaker 1: comes together and you know they get there. So, I mean,
36:15
Speaker 1: I stucky, tell me why I'm wrong, But I mean,
36:18
Speaker 1: I'll take it's a quarterback driven league, Um, and I'll
36:21
Speaker 1: take Kyler Murray. I mean, I'll take Kirk Cousins over
36:24
Speaker 1: any quarter both of them, over any quarterback the Bears have.
36:27
Speaker 1: And well, I think that the Cardinals actually have better corners. Um,
36:32
Speaker 1: the Cardinals are better skill position players, But it just
36:35
Speaker 1: comes down to a better quarterback UM, and I would
36:39
Speaker 1: want to side with Kyler Murray. And I just think
36:41
Speaker 1: the Vikings lost so much on that defense, and it's
36:45
Speaker 1: such a complex defense. The Zimmer's defense is very complex,
36:48
Speaker 1: and you're bringing in an entirely new secondary. You lost
36:52
Speaker 1: one of your best, your best player up front. You
36:53
Speaker 1: still have probably the best safety duo in the NFL
36:56
Speaker 1: and a great linebacker corps, but pretty in all new corners.
37:01
Speaker 1: Losing Griffin upfront, I mean it's it's a lot with
37:05
Speaker 1: a no preseason, shortened prep, and then you know you
37:07
Speaker 1: have to find someone that replaced DIGSI relying on a
37:09
Speaker 1: rookie to do that in the shorten prep. So I
37:12
Speaker 1: think the Cardinals actually have the highest upside and the
37:15
Speaker 1: best odds UM and you're probably getting the best quarterback
37:18
Speaker 1: with the best with the best odds on top of that,
37:22
Speaker 1: but not the one who's won a Super Bowl. I
37:25
Speaker 1: mean Trent delfor Trent Deelfer won a Super Bowl. For
37:30
Speaker 1: those tickets cash for Trent. This is a different league
37:33
Speaker 1: that Eagles super Bowl is such a fluke um, but
37:37
Speaker 1: it cash this is you need. But basically that's how
37:41
Speaker 1: eliminate you. I need a quarterback that I can see
37:45
Speaker 1: winning a Super Bowl. Um, in order to ever consider
37:52
Speaker 1: placing a future on an NFL team in today's league, stuck.
37:59
Speaker 1: I want to summer guys our conference picks because those
38:02
Speaker 1: are also our Super Bowl picks from the NFC. This
38:04
Speaker 1: is only NFC, but I feel like we're gonna have
38:07
Speaker 1: to do af C now. Um, I've already forgotten who
38:10
Speaker 1: your pick was for the conference in the NFC. Well,
38:14
Speaker 1: I think that if you're looking for long shots, it's
38:19
Speaker 1: like I said before, it's the Lions, the Cardinals, or
38:22
Speaker 1: maybe the Falcons. And the reason, the fact, the fact
38:24
Speaker 1: that just a value because the Bucks. There's so much
38:27
Speaker 1: love for the Bucks and Saints. Right, So the number
38:30
Speaker 1: on the Falcons with a quarterback who's been to the
38:32
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, with that capable of an offense, if the
38:34
Speaker 1: defense comes together, they have upside. But um, I think
38:38
Speaker 1: if you're asking me who I think wins the NFC
38:40
Speaker 1: this year, um, I think the NFC Championship is gonna
38:43
Speaker 1: be and it's so chalky, but it's gonna be New
38:44
Speaker 1: Orleans and Dallas. Um, And I just love New Orleans.
38:49
Speaker 1: They have so much depth too, and that's so important
38:51
Speaker 1: this year in particular this team. I mean, they're they're
38:54
Speaker 1: they're defensive interior depth, their edge rushing depth is ridiculous. Um.
39:00
Speaker 1: You know, then obviously have quarterback depth two so you
39:02
Speaker 1: can survive a quarterback injury. So I think that it's
39:06
Speaker 1: the Saints and the Cowboys and then say it's very chalky,
39:08
Speaker 1: But I think that it's the top heavy year. But
39:10
Speaker 1: if you want to take a shot, I think you're
39:12
Speaker 1: depending on who you like, it's either Falcons, Lions, or Cardinals.
39:15
Speaker 1: All three have quarterbacks that are capable enough of going
39:18
Speaker 1: on a run if they get to the playoffs. In
39:20
Speaker 1: my opinion, fascast forward fast forward to like either week
39:24
Speaker 1: like seventh, eighteen or nineteen the NFC while the divisional
39:28
Speaker 1: round of the Championship round, Stuck and I are gonna
39:31
Speaker 1: be tied, Chad, you know, with our six pack picks,
39:34
Speaker 1: and Stuck is gonna pick the Saints and I'm gonna
39:36
Speaker 1: pick the opponent on the money line, and the referees
39:39
Speaker 1: are gonna or their defense is gonna bail me out,
39:42
Speaker 1: and the Saints are gonna break everybody's heart again. Because
39:45
Speaker 1: the NFL wouldn't be right, if that, if that didn't
39:47
Speaker 1: happen to the things, there is no doubt in my mind,
39:50
Speaker 1: uh that it's not going to be the Saints, which
39:52
Speaker 1: is why as I summarize, because you got burnt by
39:55
Speaker 1: them before you love with them, I've been burnt badly
39:59
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, fool me once, shaman, Shame on you.
40:03
Speaker 1: Um I'm gonna summarize. Our three picks to win the
40:07
Speaker 1: conference are, which which we also believe will be our
40:10
Speaker 1: three picks from the NFC to win the Super Bowl. Okay,
40:13
Speaker 1: so Stucky is taking the Cardinals, Raybon is taking the Seahawks,
40:17
Speaker 1: and Chad is taking the Bears. There, there we go.
40:21
Speaker 1: That's picks to win. That's best betting value. Right, Yeah,
40:25
Speaker 1: so you might want to give the odds. So the
40:26
Speaker 1: Skiots are plus ten fifty to win the NFC title,
40:29
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears are twenty to one, and you're going
40:32
Speaker 1: a lion stuck or Cardinals car Cardinals, Cardinals are one
40:37
Speaker 1: to win the NFC chip. And then you just divide
40:39
Speaker 1: those in half. I mean, you multiply those by two,
40:41
Speaker 1: and those are the Super Bowl ots. I love this,
40:44
Speaker 1: I love this game. This is gonna be exciting. We're
40:46
Speaker 1: gonna get to look back on this in many many months.
40:48
Speaker 1: Knock on wood that we get through the whole freaking season, right,
40:51
Speaker 1: Raybon and Stucky, thank you for coming on and joining.
40:54
Speaker 1: You guys are champions who have an award winning podcast
40:56
Speaker 1: called the Action Network Podcast. You host it. It comes
40:59
Speaker 1: out on Thursday is during the season. You have a
41:01
Speaker 1: segment called the six pack where you make your best picks.
41:04
Speaker 1: And that is appropriate because we are doing another phrase
41:07
Speaker 1: to pay his contest same practice, go great and review
41:09
Speaker 1: of the podcast using the phrase I need a six
41:12
Speaker 1: pack in honor of my friends ray About and Stucky
41:14
Speaker 1: segment on their Action Network NFL pod use the phrase
41:17
Speaker 1: we will randomly choose the winner to get a free
41:19
Speaker 1: Action Network couldy and the winner the winner from two
41:24
Speaker 1: weeks ago when the winning phrase was I feel for
41:26
Speaker 1: Stucky and Colin. We had loads of loads of reviews.
41:28
Speaker 1: Thank you for that, and the winner winning an Action
41:32
Speaker 1: Network COULDI is Ivan Trey Zach. Here's some of what
41:37
Speaker 1: he said, Stuck, you'll appreciate this. I feel for Colin
41:40
Speaker 1: and Stucky getting it out of the way right there.
41:42
Speaker 1: They're the best in the college football gambling biz. They
41:45
Speaker 1: brought the world FC yes or no. They brought us
41:47
Speaker 1: midweek madness and action and fund Belt betting. They brought
41:51
Speaker 1: us a weekly check in with Arkansas football. But even
41:54
Speaker 1: if college football can only offer us a bastard eyed
41:57
Speaker 1: version of itself the season, I know they'll be there
41:59
Speaker 1: for all of us in the gambling community on the
42:01
Speaker 1: incredible Favorites podcast, on the award winning Action Network podcast,
42:06
Speaker 1: and on the award winning Action Network app, but more importantly,
42:10
Speaker 1: in our hearts. Yvon Tres act like that is a
42:14
Speaker 1: lovely thing to say about the podcast about Action Network,
42:18
Speaker 1: about you, stuck about Colin, I love you? He didn't say.
42:23
Speaker 1: Bo nixt season is in full effect. Bo nixt season
42:27
Speaker 1: in full effect. That will be used a lot on
42:31
Speaker 1: our podcast, So if you haven't checked it out, make
42:34
Speaker 1: sure you do. For the maybe one or two weeks,
42:36
Speaker 1: we get college football, hopefully all all of them. We
42:39
Speaker 1: got a big collegue football preview coming up in the
42:41
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. We got Raybond talking about fantasy. We
42:44
Speaker 1: got Ray Bond and stuff you're talking about NFL. We
42:47
Speaker 1: are loaded. Go check out the Favorites, rate review, subscribe,
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Speaker 1: listen to it on Apple podcast, Spotify, wherever you get
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Speaker 1: the podcasts. Until next time, I love you, ye