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NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets Monday 9/29/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: I have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: slump continues, I've reached a new peak.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm gonna.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Burn my bruins hat Man, I don't know what is
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: going on with the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. But I don't even know
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: what data is anymore. Man, back with you after the
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: worst day that I could.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: sewed back with you. This is better off dead. Monday,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: September twenty nine. This is gonna be a pretty short episode.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna rant about what happened yesterday, which
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: was a winning day, but it should have been a
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: lot better than it was. And uh, we'll talk about
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Monday Night football and that's about it. Thanks for anybody
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: who was hanging out with in the Major League Baseball
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: playoff bracket special last night, which my picks are gonna
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: be on that. It's just very difficult to predict that shit,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So go check it out.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: If you want to. It's up on the channel. Yesterday
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: we won.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: We went four and three, so the win streak does continue,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: almost back to even on the year finally, which is
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: not that bad. But it started out it was looking
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: like it was gonna be an absolute monster day. I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: feel like that happened in the last two days like
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Giants got there the win. That was the most fun
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: one because I like Jackson Dart Giants with an outright win.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there's ever a point in the
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: game where they were not covering very low scoring game,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: they get the win.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Jackson Darts debut game. I like it. It's fun.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: We had an even easier time winning with the Patriot.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It's just an absolute blowout win.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: There no sweat at all.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: They had a defensive touchdown almost right away, and then
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: it was just floodgates open. I played their defensive fantasy too,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: and I am winning going into tonight.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: So in my main league, I'm on the verge of three.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: And one here if my team can finish it off here.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons also got out to an early lead and
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: they did not surrender it, so that was a win
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: as well. They only wound up winning by seven, but
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: they were up by multiple scores throughout.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: A lot of that game.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Then everything started going fucking hay wire. We knew we
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: were gonna lose on the Tampa.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Bay Rays one. I mean that was just bad.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I mean they were down five to one early, they
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: clawed back and made it five to four, and then
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: their bullpen actually was a huge problem in the game,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: so that was not really what I expected. They wound
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: up getting blown out in the game.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: That was a loser.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of the other games that I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: had yesterday should have been losers. Of course we had
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: to be on the Indianapolis game. That was my last
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: addition to my to my slate. I was thinking about
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: not including it. That would have been the last one
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: I added. It should have been a winner in Indianapolis.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: They basically had a wire to wire cover in that game. Man,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: they were winning and or tied I think the entire
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: way up until they were winning twenty to thirteen in
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: So it's like in the.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Middle of the fourth you're up, You're you have a
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half on that I mean, that's
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: like you're pretty much gonna win that thing. The Rams
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: did wind up tying it very late in the game,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I think, with like a probably less than a minute, no,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: not less than like less than a few minutes left
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: in the game. Now, all of a sudden, it's twenty twenty,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty, the Crime show, the True Crime Show. Then
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis starts driving again, and you're thinking, Okay, get a
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: game winning score here, and we're gonna win this game outright.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: Still, they have this huge run by Jonathan Taylor.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Incredible run, just had this crazy spin move bouncing off
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: the tackles, unbelievable, like a fifty something yard run touchdown.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis looks like they're probably gonna win this game now.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: At least you're in a very great position to cover
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the spread at that point. No, it gets called back
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: on a holding call. It a complete ghost holding. So
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: that's a situation where I do think that there's some
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: bullshit rigging going on there, even though I don't know
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: if the books I think wanted Indianapolis in that game though,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: because the Rams were the public side, so I don't know, man,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: but that was a bullshit call and it erased an
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: incredible touchdown that basically would have sealed the Indianapolis cover
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: and probably an outright win there. Instead, they don't get
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: the fifty yard touchdown run and they get docked ten
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: yards and now they're back on their side of midfield.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: They wind up having to punt the ball, and then
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: immediately after the punt, eighty eight yard touchdown pass from
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: the Rams and they hadn't really done anything on offense
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the entire game to that extent, and it was to
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: to two at Well, who had like three receptions on
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: the entire season, and I mean, I know he's better
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: than that, but still absolutely ridiculous. The defense just was
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: nowhere near him.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Insane, absolutely insane.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: And then Indianapolis did still have one more chance because
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the Rams scored too fast, so there was still over
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: a minute left and Indy did start driving and then
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones threw an interception and that was.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: The end of it.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: That pisses me off big time. Nate, what's up, man,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Then Texas Rangers was about as
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: bad as the Indianapolis won. Man, if you saw what
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: happened with the Texas Rangers game Cleveland, I mean, they
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: were already gonna be in the playoffs. They didn't need
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: to win. The Red Sox beat Detroit a lot, I
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: don't know, like towards the end of the Cleveland game,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Cleveland obviously knew that Detroit had lost, right so that
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Cleveland therefore had won the division because they had the tiebreakers.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So it didn't even matter because I'm pretty sure the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and the Tigers game ended first because the
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Texas and Cleveland game went to extra innings. Texas was
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: winning like almost the entire game, at least winning by
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: one or two runs throughout the whole thing.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: They were still up five to three.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: In the eighth inning, they blew the lead. I think
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: it was still five to four. Maybe in the ninth
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: I don't remember, but they blew that goes into extra innings,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: and then Texas puts three on the board in the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: tenth innings, so now they're up eight to five. So
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: it's like, all right, this is over. You have an
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: eight to five win, and now again you have a
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: big lead with little you know, with one inning to go. Basically,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Texas has a pretty solid bullpen.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Cleveland can't hit.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Oh but Cleveland winds up putting up a four spot
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: in the bottom of thes entd thinning and winning anyway
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: nine to eight.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Absolutely unbelievable.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Obviously, Texas was the right play as the underdog there,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: having the lead throughout most of the game just absolutely ridiculous.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Didn't expect it to be a high scoring game like that,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: but insane. I mean it was lower scoring than the
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: final made it look, obviously because the mid or seven.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Runs scored to that's tenth inning. And then.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: The WNBA game, I mean, holy shit, dude, Minnesota is
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: now eliminated. But Minnesota was winning outright most of that game,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: like they were out out of the gates, hot man.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Minnesota was winning by double digits. In the first quarter,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: it got a little bit closer than Minnesota, I think
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: maybe even fell behind, and then they pushed their lead
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: back to the point where they had a double digit
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: lead in the fourth quarter. They were up like thirteen
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: points in the fourth quarter as a five and a
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: half point underdog, which by the way, it wound up
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: being a four and a half point number in the
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: game went off, So if you got the worst number
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: on that, you actually wound up losing, whereas my five
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: and a half actually wound up winning.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Neither should have been a loser. Man.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: You're up thirteen in the fourth quarter, outright lead pretty
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: much the whole game. Minnesota got outscored. I don't know
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: exactly what the fourth quarter wound up being, but I
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: saw towards the end of the game they were outscored
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: twenty two to five in the fourth quarter, and then
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I think both teams might have scored like a little
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: bit more after that, and Minnesota wound up barely getting
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: in that number and losing by five, I think after
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: they intentionally fouled again at the end of the game,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: because it was kind of going back and forth between
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: three and five towards the end. There absolutely abysmal fourth
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: quarter from Minnesota. I mean, even though yeah, they were
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: without their star player call here, but even so, like,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: how do you how do they play a fourth quarter?
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: It's that bad man, And now they're eliminated.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: But as you know, in my bracket, I actually picked
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Vegas to be the champion of Vegas.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: They're on the version of elimination. But it's in a.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Home game in a in a game five in their series,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: which is gonna come up tomorrow.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: So whatever, man, let's talk about today. So that was
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: all the games. Yesterday.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Could have been a losing day if Minnesota didn't wind
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: up covering that in the end, and that would have
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: been bullshit too.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: So we almost took.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Three bullshit losses yesterday. It should have been a six
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: and one day. Man. We got the NFL today, obviously,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: that's the only thing we have today. Monday night, I
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: already talked about both games on my NFL show as well,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: so you can go back and watch that, but my
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: analysis is going to essentially.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Be the same.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: We at least have, you know, we can see what
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: the market has done since then, and I think the
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: market is not really gonna tell us too much additional
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: information at this point here.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Trying to gather my thoughts here. I don't have any
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: bets on these games.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: First game up, it starts an hour before the other
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: game in this double ahead or even though the games
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: are gonna be played at the same time, and you know,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: absolutely nobody's gonna watch Jets Dolphins Man. Once Bengals Broncos
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: comes on, that's obviously the game that people are gonna
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: be watching, although Joe Burrow is obviously heard as well.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: So not a good Monday night lineup at all for people.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Man Jets Dolphins battle of owned three AFC East teams.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Although I have a tendency to kind of want to
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: say that maybe neither team is really as bad as that,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins are indeed pretty bad. I think
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: McDaniel's gonna get fired. He's not very good. The Jets,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: at least they have the excuse they have a new
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: coach there Aaron Glenn, So they're trying to figure things out,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: but their defense is really struggled so far. The Dolphins
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorite here. It's gone
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: up a little bit with some juice on the two
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: and a half sixty percent tickets sixty one percent of
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Dolphins. The under also getting money
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: with the total just sitting at four and a half
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent tickets on the for only sixty six
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. So I would
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: say that means that the actual.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Money is coming in on the under here.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: And I mean it kind of makes sense, and you
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: have two bad teams, but I kind of worry about
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: an under in that game because the Jets defense is
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: supposed to be good, but it hasn't played well and
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins defense is bad, so it is possible that
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: those teams can get over that total. I mean, when
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: you have two bad teams, a lot of times you
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: think all the teams can't score. But and yeah, the
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Dolphins offense has been putrid, but the Jets offense actually.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: Hasn't really been that bad.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I lean to Miami in this game, though, and if
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: you can find the two and a half out there,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: you could still lay that maybe you have to lay
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the money line on it, find you know, some other
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: creative way of doing it.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: But I think Miami is the right side in my opinion. Here.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: They have extra time off because they haven't played since Thursday,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: and yeah, I know they covered against Buffalo, but I
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: think the extra time off in this situation will help
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: them because they haven't won a game yet. So I
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: having extra time off, you're gonna use that extra time
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: to prepare some stuff you're back at home.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: Although I know this is a divisional.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Game, so it's like it's not gonna be a big
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: deal for the Jets to travel down there either. But
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: even though it is gonna be warm, probably warmer than
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the Jets, like, I think it's gonna be in the
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: eighties down there. And if it was a day game,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I would say Miami should wear their white uniforms force
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: the Jets to soak up the.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Sun and they are dark colors.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: But it's gonna be a night game, so that's you know,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter as much. But yeah, Miami, I
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: think they could use that extra time off to try
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to fix some things. I know they covered in their
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: last game against Buffalo, but it was still a double
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: digit loss, so I think they could use that time
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: to fix some things, whereas the Jets are actually coming
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: off a much more difficult loss. That was a game
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: that I gave out on the show with the Jets
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half. The Jets made a big
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: comeback in that game, took the lead late in the game,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: and then lost it right at the end brutal fashion. Man,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: they could have pulled off the upset there, So I
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: think the Jets coming off that game could be in
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a worst spot here, although the
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: travel spot is kind of not as bad for them
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: if they stayed in Florida because it's two straight games
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: in Florida, so I kind of assumed they did actually
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: stay in Florida, So that would be a little bit
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: of an advantage to the Jets if they did do that.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: But I still would lean to Miami in this game
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: just because the Jets have less time off. That was
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: a brutal way of losing to Tampa Bay there. And
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the other thing about the Jets is I'm pretty sure.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could watch the news today, but I'm
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: pretty sure justin Fields is coming back here. So one
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: of the reasons I played the Jets against Tampa Bay
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: was that it was the injured player theory spot. When
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: you're starting quarterback goes down, the team tends to step
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: up their game for that one game without him. They
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: know they have to put an extra effort. You get
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit of extra value on that team because
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the line moves a little bit. In that case, I
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: don't think it moved that much. I think it moved
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: about a point. But the oddsmaker is still downgraded the
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Jets going from Justin Fields to Tyron Taylor. But I'm
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: not sure that Taylor is even really worse than Justin Fields.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, Taylor's good, he's not that bad.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: He's got experience, He's been pretty solid when he's played.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Sometimes he kind of goes in there and like, defenses
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: don't know how. I don't know how to scheme against
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: him really because they don't see him that often. But
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: now we're in kind of the reverse injured player spot
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: now where the starting quarterback is coming back, and the
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Jets might be of the mindset like this happens in
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: the reverse injured player spot. When the guy comes back,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: it's like, oh, we played pretty well without him. We
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: can kind of like breathe a sigh of relief here
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: and not have to play as hard with this guy back.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Although I know the Jets are owned three, so it's
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: not like they're not gonna be playing hard, but you.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Know, well, I mean, I wouldn't imagine.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: I think two own three teams are kind of desperate,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you know, So I think they're both gonna show up here.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think there could be also kind of
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: a chemistry issue with the quarterback coming back for the
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Jets here. So I think Miami is the way to
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: look in that game. If you're gonna play that game,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: it won't be a play for me though. And then
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Broncos is the other game. Pretty
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: low looking total for a Bengals game. Although the Broncos
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: are more of a defensive even an offensive team, the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Bengals look like their offense is gonna really be struggling
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: without Joe Burrow in there. Money is coming in on
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: the over in this one, though, even though it dropped
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit to forty four and a half juice
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: to the under fifty eight percent of tickets sixty five
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over now, so money
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit on the over. I don't know if
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I really see that though, to be honest, I think Broncos,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: if they play that slow down style. I mean, the Bengals,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: this offense without Joe Burrow could struggle to score again.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Probably not as.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Bad as last week, though, but they're I mean, they
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: faced a good defense last week through the Vikings. They
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: throw a lot of pressure at the quarterbacks and stuff,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: but the Broncos are also a pretty menacing defense. Eighty
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: five percent tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: the Broncos threw up from six to seven and a half,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: So the line did move through that key number seven.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: The six might have been the like the look ahead
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: the week before, that public is gonna be all over
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the Broncos and this is gonna be the game that's
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the more bet of the two games. Would say, So,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I think you do want to look to fade the
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: public here because Monday night, you know, there's usually it's
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: one Monday night game, and everybody coming off of Sunday.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: You know, if people lost on Sunday, which I think
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of the anti public plays did win yesterday,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: So you're gonna see betters who lost yesterday coming in
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: trying to get some of their money back on Monday night.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: So I do think a lot of them are gonna
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: be betting the Broncos. There are probably a lot of
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: people who have teased the Broncos down from seven and
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: a half to one and a half. Although I actually
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: think that that's probably a good idea, I would not
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: disagree with doing that. I think if you did want
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: to tease, you could actually tease both of these games here,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: because they're both in the Stanford Long teaser, which is
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the only way that there's really actually value to be
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: had on the NFL, which is a two teams six
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: point teaser, and you have to take both teams through
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the key numbers of both three and seven, So you
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: need to get the number either from below three up
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: to above seven or as an underdog from ear excuse
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: he has a favorite from above seven all the way
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: down to below three.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: So you can only do it with underdogs of.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: One and a half up through two and a half
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: and favorites of eight and a half down through seven
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: But you have both of those here.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: You could tease the Jets up to plus eight and
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: a half with the Broncos down to.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Minus one and a half, that would not be a
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: horrible teaser.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: But books know that there's value in that specific teaser,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: so they charge you more for the teasers now because
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the professionals have been doing it for a while, so
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: they probably charge you about minus one thirty now for
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: and I probably wouldn't want to do that. You used
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: to be able to get it at minus one twenty.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: If you can find it for like minus one twenty five,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: it might be.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Worth a look.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I probably would have teased the Broncos with some other
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: team that played yesterday, though, because I don't just I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: don't know. I just don't love the Jets tonight, so
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's gonna happen that game. Really this game,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I actually do lean to the Bengals plus the points, though,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: even though I don't really see the Broncos in the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: game outright either. Broncos were a potential survivor pick as well,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: but I used Houston. I took the risk yesterday and
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I got that, so I am alive stone survivor and
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Houston had basically no future values, so my low time
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: preference survivor continues, man, and you got to do that
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: when you're in like a big.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Money survivor pool like I am. So we're alive.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: We're alive in college survivors still as well, but I
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: haven't really been tested there yet. It's gonna get more
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: difficult because in the college when you have to use
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: just the you're only able to use I think games
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: that involve the Power Conference teams, so your options are
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: a little bit limited that way.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: But this game, Cincinnati is coming off a horrific game. Man.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: They played that game against Minnesota that was the injured
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: player theory game for both teams, as JJ McCarthy for
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and Joe Borrow for Cincinnati both had gotten hurt
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: in the previous game. Cincinnati I felt was in the
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: worst spot because they had come off that like crazy
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: comeback win against Jacksonville, big dramatic win, having to go
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: on the road to face this Minnesota defense. I thought
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Browning also a huge step down from Joe Burrow. The
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: two jbs, Jake Browning and Joe Burrow, So I thought
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: that was a major step down whards. I thought Minnesota
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: switching from a cart it wentz actually could be potentially
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: an upgrade. So I thought Minnesota was the right side
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: in that game, and they were. I mean, I didn't
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: expect Cincinnati to have five turnovers in the game, but
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Minnesota did win. I was right about that, And now
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota looked too good. And that's what I
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: said about going into yesterday. Minnesota did wind up losing
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: the game to Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers yesterday in Dublin.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Minnesota did dominate this game statistically, but and they.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Really held Cincinnati's offense down.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: But Cincinnati was also minus five and turnovers, so Cincinnati
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: really couldn't have possibly looked worse. So really, nobody's gonna
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with Cincinnati after they saw that.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: So I think that is a spot where you do
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: get a little bit additional value on a team like Cincinnati,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: because yeah, they deserve to lose that game, and they
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: got blown out statistically, but the game should not have
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: been forty eight to ten. Five turnovers is just ridiculous.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: So if Cincinnati is able to clean that up throughout
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: the week, they shouldn't be as bad in this game defensively,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: and they still have a lot of talent on that offense,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: so I don't really see how the offense could be
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: that bad just because Joe Burrow's not there. Denver hasn't
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: really been good offensively so far. Their defense has been
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: playing well, but they're coming of a much tougher game
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers, a huge divisional game where Kansas City.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: You know, Kansas City looked really good yesterday, but Kansas City.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Stepping down maybe a little bit this year, taking a
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: step back, and people were like, which team is gonna
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: fill that role, Denver or the Chargers. So Denver versus Chargers,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: huge game there, and Denver had the lead on the
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: road late in that game, they wound up blowing the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: game late and losing the game.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: That is a brutal way to lose that game.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: And do have Philly up next, the returning champs, and
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: that's always going to be a game that draws your attention, even.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Though it's not a primetime game.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: So I think Denver could have potentially overlook the Cincinnati team,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: especially when they know Cincinnati doesn't have Joe Burrow. Looking
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: at what Cincinnati did last week, even though, as I
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: pointed out, Cincinnati did beat Denver late in the season
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: last year. I think in the second to last week
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: of the season at Cincinnati overtime game. Cincinnati needed the
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: game a little bit more because they were trying to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: stay alive in the playoff race. Denver was more secure
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: in their playoff spot at that point, but both teams
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: tried hard in the game. Cincinnati won, So there's a
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: little bit of a revenge aspect here, but I don't
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: think it matters that much, and Denver looking for revenge
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to cover a huge
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: spread either. So I think looking at the spot here,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I think it is a pretty bad spot for Denver
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: is It does look like a sandwich spot to me,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: to be honest, It's just that when you're hosting a
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Monday night game, it's a little bit difficult to say
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: that it's the same which but I mean, I'm tempted.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: This is the better of the two games as far
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: as this is my stronger opinion of the two games.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, my opinion is take the points with
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: the Bengals in this game. I know it's another ugly underdog.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna quite get there with that one, but
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: it's close. It looks like a sandwich to me. For Denversus.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: That's that man. Yeah, I mean I think that's all
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: I got here. Quick video today. Of course I prolonged
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: in anyway just to talk about two games, but a Nate.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. That's gonna do it for today.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: I'll be back tomorrow.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: We will have MLB playoffs, NBA w NBA playoffs continue,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: and no football tomorrow, so it's gonna be probably another
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: short ish video tomorrow, but that's gonna do it for now.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: Have a good Monday, everybody in peace,