Latest / Best of Business / Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on REINZ saying there's green shoots in the housing market

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Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on REINZ saying there's green shoots in the housing market · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from newstalks'd be follow this
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  Speaker 2: Now, the Real Estate Institute reckons there are green shoots
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  Speaker 2: in the housing market. Although prices in July were down
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  Speaker 2: two point two percent from a year ago, the number
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  Speaker 2: of properties sold actually jumped almost fifteen percent in the year.
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  Speaker 2: Brad Olsen is Infametrics principal economist day Brad good aheadning,
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  Speaker 2: did you hear the sledging from Adrian or towards you
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  Speaker 2: last week?
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  Speaker 3: Oh, I've heard various views being put out across what
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  Speaker 3: the bank may or may not have done with cutting,
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  Speaker 3: whether or not it was U Tuns or not. I mean, look,
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  Speaker 3: I to stand by my point hither that that was
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  Speaker 3: a big swing in view to go from saying that
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  Speaker 3: things will interest rates might go up and certainly going
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  Speaker 3: to stay and hold another year to then three months
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  Speaker 3: later decide to go for a cut. Now, if the
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  Speaker 3: economy had changed, marketly, I could understand that. But most
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  Speaker 3: of the high frequency data that we've been setting has
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  Speaker 3: continued to look bad through twenty twenty four. It didn't
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  Speaker 3: emerge just three months ago.
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  Speaker 2: What about him saying that he thinks that you any
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  Speaker 2: pictures to be drawn. Does it make you angry or
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  Speaker 2: did you go, oh, that's just classic Adrian.
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  Speaker 3: Oh, look, that's not for me to comment. I have
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  Speaker 3: tried my hardist not to make it personally genuinely, you
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  Speaker 3: don't think I have. If others want to try and
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  Speaker 3: make it that way, that's completely on them. But put
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  Speaker 3: it this way, I'm more than comfortable with calling a
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  Speaker 3: spade a spade. If it has been going around forty
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  Speaker 3: years this year, you know, making sure that we're providing
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  Speaker 3: an independent, robust economic view and we won't be changing that. Now.
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  Speaker 2: What do you reckon is going to happen from here
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  Speaker 2: on in? Is it going to be cut cut, cut,
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  Speaker 2: cut cut at every single meeting.
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  Speaker 3: But that's what we're taking from the predictions at the moment.
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  Speaker 3: If the economic data comes in as expected, we'd be
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  Speaker 3: expecting cuts every meeting until probably mid next year, and
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  Speaker 3: then the bank weft is probably take it a little
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  Speaker 3: bit more of a do they don't they? After that? Look,
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  Speaker 3: it's not out of the rental of possibility either here
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  Speaker 3: that the bank sides at the end of this year,
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  Speaker 3: come November, they might have to do a fifty faces
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  Speaker 3: point cut. They'll have three months, remember before they meet
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  Speaker 3: again in twenty twenty five, so they might want to
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  Speaker 3: sneak in an extra cut almost ahead of time.
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  Speaker 2: Yep, yep, yep. I think you might be on the
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  Speaker 2: money on that one. Listen, now, why is the housing
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  Speaker 2: market up at the moment? Is this and this is
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  Speaker 2: pre the cut? Is this because people started to see
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  Speaker 2: good signs?
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  Speaker 3: I think there's a few parts. So, I mean, one
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  Speaker 3: June was just sort of quite rubbish in terms of
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  Speaker 3: you you've seen sales jump up significantly in July in
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  Speaker 3: the housing market. Part of that was just because there
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  Speaker 3: wasn't a whole lot happening in June. Sales. If you
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  Speaker 3: look at them sort of over the last year or so,
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  Speaker 3: it's still pretty weak on all accounts. You can see
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  Speaker 3: that in house price growth as well, only zero point
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  Speaker 3: two percent over the last year, the slowest annual growth
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  Speaker 3: since November twenty twenty three. So it's not like there's
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  Speaker 3: a huge amount out there. You might be seeing some
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  Speaker 3: green shoots starting to be sullen, but let's be clear
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  Speaker 3: that the ground is still pretty frozen underneath, and we're
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  Speaker 3: not expecting it thaws out immediately.
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  Speaker 2: Brad you mentioned it's forty years. It's forty years of
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  Speaker 2: infametrics today, isn't it.
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  Speaker 3: We are celebrating today. I mean, the business has been
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  Speaker 3: going a long time, starting in nineteen eighty four as
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  Speaker 3: the economy was really starting to go through some big coruptions.
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  Speaker 3: We've sort of been there through it all and we're
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  Speaker 3: pretty excited to say that, you know, we've made the
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  Speaker 3: smilestone and we're looking forward to a lot more.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, good stuff.
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  Speaker 2: As you've got a party in parliament tonight. So you've
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  Speaker 2: got the Finance Minister coming, Gareth Morgan coming.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, indeed we've got Gareth coming along. We've got a
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  Speaker 3: team and a bunch of clients and supporters and similar
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  Speaker 3: not wanting it to be too big. We're economists after all,
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  Speaker 3: and so we've got to be you know, conservative. We
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  Speaker 3: don't want to try and reinflate you know, the inflationary
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  Speaker 3: pressures again, so.
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  Speaker 2: Keeping it sort of reserve Adrian coming.
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  Speaker 3: We have not got the Reserve Bank Governor in attendance.
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  Speaker 3: We have invited the chief economists, but unfortunately they're not
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  Speaker 3: able to make.
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  Speaker 2: It other commitments like washing their hair tonight, Brad, Thank
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  Speaker 2: you very much, really, appreciate it. Brad Alson, Infametrics Principle Economists.
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