Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Massive De-Risking Event📉Crypto Market Update

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Massive De-Risking Event📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: A massive de risking event taking place, and we're going
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: to break it all down for you because there's a
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: lot of things that are happening that you'll need to
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: stay very close in terms of attention to Before we
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: get into that. I don't want to think our sponsor today,
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• 0:34
  Speaker 1: things that is also happening right now, which I think
• 0:37
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• 0:39
  Speaker 1: a huge amount of surge in phishing attempts. This is
• 0:43
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• 0:56
  Speaker 1: get started. Let's go over to a couple of points
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I want to hit on, and this of course, leads
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: us into one of the d risk events that probably
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: leads the entire portion of all de risking events. And
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: that is what President Trump is doing in Iran. He
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: makes a statement right here for Iran, the clock is
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: ticking and they better get moving fast or there won't
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: be anything left of them this time. The time is
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: of essence. And of course right now he's putting more
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: pressure on Iran. There's a lot happening around this. Most
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: of it has been leaned in on that that he
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: just doesn't want them to have nuclear weapons. But the
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: real situation, I think, is what they're going to do
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: in terms of a proposal. They have come back with
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: an updated proposal for a deal to end the war.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: The White House believes it's insufficient for a deal, and
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Trump is now expected to convene his top national security
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: team on Tuesday to discuss military options. So this is
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the kind of thing we're dealing with right here, guys,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: This is not good. I think the key here is
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: we've got to see this at least get into a
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: some sort of off ramp. And every time we think
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: there's one that is close, this is what happens. And
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: of course we see the markets respond to this. Kobeec
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: kind of breaks it down. Iran has launched a Horror
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Move safe bitcoin and backed insurance service for shipping companies
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: that want to transit to Straight number four. It's very
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: unclear if the insurance service will be charged in addition
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: to tolls which have been as much as two billion
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: per ship. But all this is being paid or potentially
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: being paid in bitcoin.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: One of the things that Iran has been doing is
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: they've been dropping these ai lego ads and it's been
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: all about, you know, the confrontation, but this one is
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: about bitcoin and it's dying in and you see paying bitcoin.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: If anything, their marketing department in Iran is doing a
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: good job with this. But the point is is that
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: we're going to continue to see a lot of pressure.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I think the US needs to be able to get
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: out of this. Trump needs to figure out an off ramp.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Hopefully this is going to play into it, because right
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: now the straight of horm moves is back in focus.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Here is Mark Cudmore.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Now the summit's out of the way, the straight U
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: over moses back in focus. There's no real solution there,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: and we saw bonds kind of price that quite aggressively
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: last week, with the help of some high inflation prints globally.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I think for stocks, you know, in the last couple
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: of weeks, we've been very bullish into the Summit, and
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: we said that post Summit we expect the folks to
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: turn to the strait and to be more negative because
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: there's no easy resolution to the straight. So I think
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: now we're in a in one of those one of
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: the larger dips that we're going to expect in stocks.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: I think that's going to last the next couple of weeks. Ultimately,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: this doesn't derail the larger AI kpex bubble. We'll still
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: pbvious see record high end stocks later on this year.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: But I don't think this is a there's a dip
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: that people are going to want to buy quickly. They
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: might try to buy quickly because we've got massive herding
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: in stock markets at the moment because everyone's getting the
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: same advice from AI. But ultimately I do think that
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: stocks now go have a couple of weeks in pain,
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  Speaker 2: and that, as we discussed last week, the headline numbers
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: will be very dramatic, which we'll get people to declaring
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: this at the end of the bubble, but that's only
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: in context of the extraordinary gains we've seen in recent weeks.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: All right, So to his point, extraord gains. If we
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: do see a little bit of a retlacement here, the
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: real question is is would you buy this dip right now?
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments down below, would you
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: buy if we start to see some of these majors,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: especially if you look at micro strategy, could even look
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: at the dip in gold that we've had, some of
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: the mag seven and of course all the AI plays
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I think is being considered right now. The good thing
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: is that we are seeing at least some light in
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the tunnel around China. If you look at what the
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: White House announced in terms of the US trying to
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: change trade deals and some of the developments that came
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: from this meeting. China's going to address some concerns regarding
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: supply chain shortages on rare earth. These are the very
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: critical minerals. They also approved initial purchase of some airplanes
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: coming in from Boeing. You China also buying seventeen bill
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: of US billion of US agricultural products. That's a good
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: thing I think for farmers. This is going to be
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: paced out through twenty six, seven to eight, and then
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: you've got restoring market acts for US beef. That's another
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: big one. China also has resume imports for poultry from
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: US states. All of those are very good. And you've
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: got President she who's going to visit the White House
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: in the fall, so at least there is an olive
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: branch between the two countries. This is an important, I
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: think relationship that Trump hopefully can manage and get this done.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: If he can just get out of Iran, maybe this
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: starts to move the markets in a different way. But
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: right now we are seeing some rocky, rocky road ahead
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: of us. Here's Tom Lee talking about risk for stocks.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Take a look, you know, if I look at the
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: next three months, so not three years, I do think
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: three tests are merging for the stock market. You know.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: One is, of course, how is the Fed going to
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: react to both the underlying inflation risks. The second is
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: the market doesn't really like when inflation is a concern.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: In yields are arising, and I do think we are
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: seeing it now in PPI. I think there is in
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: the pipeline a lot of inflation, not structural but just
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: inflation shock, but also energy shortage and the third of courses.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: You know, I think we have a lot of IPO
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: and that's a lot of supply, so I think we're
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: going to face some tests later this summer. So I
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: think the risk reward is still great for tech, but
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure about the broader market.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Risk reward on tech not broader market obviously that includes risk,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: and I think the key here because I agree I
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: think we are going to continue to see some more
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: inflation shock. How long this last is the real question.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: The other thing that really puts a lot of pressure
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: at the wrong time of year is energy prices, because
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: now you're going into the summer months. This affects everybody's vacation.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: It's going to be top of mind. This of course
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: will affect what will happen most likely in the fall,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: especially around the midterms. But really the question is how
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: do you prepare because if this is a short term window,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: then it might be one of those things where the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: you know, selling may go away. Kind of the scenario
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: may play into this. Listen to what said.
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: If I sit back and I say, well, how can
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: I lean in now to parabolic moves that have already
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: taken place and at the same time, I don't like
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: any of these other areas of the market because I
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: agree with Tom, Then what in the world do I do.
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: The move in DRAM, in my opinion, is actually somewhat
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: defensive because we know that if you're worried about inflation
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: and patrium shortage, there's even bigger shortages in memory. So
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: like people are buying what's going to work even if
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: the macro environment gets tough, And I think that's why
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: it makes sense for Semis and DRAM to still do
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: really well. And so I think that this pullback is
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: going to be buyable there. But to me, if someone's
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: trying to make a bigger bed on tech, I think
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: they're really attractive risk word to still MAGS seven and
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: software and Bill Ackman's buy Microsoft really reinforces it. That's
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: why software is actually still among our tough.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not sure about software being a
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: top one right there, but it could roll in to
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: one if we start to see a dip. All right,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: So when you look at the bary side of bitmind
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: this is BM and R out of their thirteen F filings,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: there was some recognizable names that cut very sharply in
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Q one one, of course JP Morgan, Then you have Fidelity,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: then you've got Goldman Sachs, Role Bank of Canada. All
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: these were down significantly, and JP Morgan's position is now
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: just two hundred and twenty three thousand shares, considerably down
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: where they have been. So back to tom Ley's point,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: looks like we may have a little bit of a
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: period of time here in the summer where we see
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: some of the corrections. Now, all of this could also
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: jump very quickly, as we all know, with what's happening
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: in the Strait, you also have some benefits. I think
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: that we'll start to play into this around the FED.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: But right now it looks as though the Fed is
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: going to have a hard time doing anything other than
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: pausing or dare I say, a rate hike. In twenty
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: twenty six the Wall Street Journal article and this kind
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: of rolls into it the economy. Kevin Warsh's inheriting is
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: not the one he wanted. The next FED chair now
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: wants to lower rates, but if you look at the data,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: it's absolutely impossible for him to do that. And I
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: actually don't like this. I don't know if there is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: a way around this, and I have listened to worsh
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: kind of talk about his strategy, but again, you're still
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: dealing with a ton of issues that are facing this
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: FED and I just don't know if we're going to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: see it, if lucky, if we will get a pause
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: on the next one and after that, because of course,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: correlating this to what's happening in the summer months is
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: going to be very, very tough. World's biggest investors are
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: now selling all at the same time. As you can see,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Warren Buffett's successor, Greg Abell, trim the Berkshire portfolio another
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: forty positions down to twenty six, fully exiting Amazon. This
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: one surprised me right here, United Health not so much,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Domino's I expected, and then cutting Chevron and Bank of America.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Bill Ackman sold ninety four percent of his Google Class
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: C ninety five percent of his Class A. What does
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: this tell you, guys? What do they know? What do
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: they know? Are we going to see something that is
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: major in the trad five mark? Because remember this has
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: been almost up only for about the last six months,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: so very interesting moves from some of the best investors
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: out there on Wall Street. Justin Goldma also disclosed seven
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: or million and bitcoin ETF holdings in Q one firm
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: cuts eight exposure by seventy percent. This is a big deal,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: also hitting XRP a salon at least from Goldman. But
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: when you look at the performance right now, XRP has
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: been the only one that has been performing over the
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: last few weeks and continuing to show positive where we
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: have seen declines in eth Solana bitcoin. This is net
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: inflow right now that we're starting to see. Notice you
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: can see positive net inflows here with with XRP correlation.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: The price still sliding up, but necessarily in the sense
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: of what we've been watching with XRP over the short
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: period of time. The real question is is what can
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: it do for the charts? Let me know in the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: comments down below. How do you guys see this played out.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I was talking to Stephen McClurg earlier today. He thinks
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: end of year XRP could be double that of where
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: it is right now, and that might align with what
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee is talking about going on. If you look
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: at where safe havens are going, well, that's USDT. The
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: dominance now shows that the US market is scared and
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: rotating into stable coins. Are you guys putting your money
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: or some of your digital assets now into tether. Are
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: you going into USDC? Let me know, are you going
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: into r L USD. Put your stable coin down in
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the comments. I want to know which one you're using
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: if you are exiting some positions. Berkshire Hathaway sitting on
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: all time high in cash three hundred ninety seven bill.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Can you imagine almost four hundred billion in cash? You
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: could buy four hundred and seventy eight countries companies, maybe
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: a couple of countries on the S and P five hundred.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: So kind of nuts right there in terms of how
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: much they are putting in the Other thing I don't like,
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: and this is the question mark, and that is AI
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: historic collapse and sentiment. Axios publish these numbers. Now, granted
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: it's Axios. I don't know where they get this data from,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: how these polls are put together. But here's some examples.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Seventy percent of Americans AI moving too fast? Do you
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: think that? Is it? Yes or no? Only eighteen percent
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: of gen ZO feel Z feel hopeful about it. And
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: then you have record number of data centers were canceled
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: in Q one. I have been hearing and seeing that
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: so that does concern me, but most of the time
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: it's been supply chain issues deals with municipalities where they
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: can get licensings to get these things built. I don't
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: know that they're pulling off, it's just there's roadblocks that
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: are being put of them right now. The risk are
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: now being flagged as the highest levels. This could also
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: be a scenario where this pullback actually does happen and
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: these may end up being goodbyes later this summer. So
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: still very I'm still very positive about where this is heading,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: especially in these higher tech products out there. I'm still
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: very amazed that people are exiting Amazon right now. I
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: think Amazon's still one of the bigger plays. Meta though,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: is cutting eight thousand jobs this week. As AI spending surges.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: This will continue to put some more pressure on the FED.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: If we continue to see job losses along with rising
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: inflation and of course rising energy customers. This is definitely
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: not a good cocktail moving in to the summer for
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Kevin Walsh right now. Last point I want to hit
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: on right here. If you look at ethereum, Tom Lee
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: is in a little bit of a conundrum here. If
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: anyone's wondering, OHI eth has been under selling pressure. Well,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: you kind of look at it right there. We've seen
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: this before, however, you know, we have seen these kind
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: of ebbs and flows with ethereum, and then you see
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: these market adjustments that just come roaring back. Now doesn't
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: get to an all time high maybe this year or
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: does it? You know, that's the real question. If we
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: see a below two k and Evan and I were
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: talking last week, could see a seventeen hundred eighth, If
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: we see a sixty seven thousand dollars bitcoin, where would
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: you guys make an entry on bitcoin or ethereum? Give
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: me your price down below. We're going to cover this
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: in a lot more because Clarity is hitting this week.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: We'll probably get some more news on that and most
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: likely more pressure on the macro, So stay tuned. If
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a comment
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description