Latest / Merryn Talks Money / The US-EU Tariff Deal and Reeves vs Bailey
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
- 0:17Speaker 2: Welcome to the Merton Talks Money Market rap, where we
- 0:20Speaker 2: talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and
- 0:22Speaker 2: what's driving them. I'm joined Stebick, senior reporter and author
- 0:25Speaker 2: of the Money Distilled newsletter. Mern's off and holiday for
- 0:29Speaker 2: a few weeks, so I've invited show regular Marcus Ashworth,
- 0:33Speaker 2: Bloomberg Opinion colmist in Markets Guru to join me in
- 0:37Speaker 2: the studio. Nice to have you back, Marcus said.
- 0:41Speaker 1: Now you haven't got stripefa Yeah, always a pleasure, never.
- 0:46Speaker 2: Right, So away, let's talk about what's been happening this
- 0:49Speaker 2: week and at the weekend we have a deal in
- 0:52Speaker 2: my old stomping ground of Girvin on the Scottish coast,
- 0:58Speaker 2: the Scottish Riviera.
- 1:00Speaker 1: Yes, it's been very amazing watching people work out where
- 1:03Speaker 1: is that.
- 1:05Speaker 2: There's a big rock in the sea called Elsa Craig
- 1:08Speaker 2: and it's a very very beautiful segment of you come over,
- 1:11Speaker 2: assuming that it's not raining, which it never isn't. But anyway,
- 1:15Speaker 2: so I said, Trump and the EU signed a deal, a.
- 1:19Speaker 1: Deal for Yeah.
- 1:21Speaker 2: Yeah, what's your take because I'm looking at it and
- 1:25Speaker 2: the idea is that so they basically get the same
- 1:27Speaker 2: deal as Japan fifteen percent across the board and everything
- 1:31Speaker 2: the EU sells enter the US and basically nothing from
- 1:36Speaker 2: the other side. And this is one reason that all
- 1:38Speaker 2: everyone in the EU is feeling a little bit aggrieved,
- 1:41Speaker 2: a little bit humiliated. But is that is that the reaction.
- 1:46Speaker 1: I'm going to take, for a change a controversial view
- 1:49Speaker 1: on this. I actually think that EU have done a
- 1:51Speaker 1: lot better than they give them themselves any credit for,
- 1:54Speaker 1: because it's all a lot of politics internally, and sure
- 1:57Speaker 1: this isn't optimal. However, if you look at the so
- 2:01Speaker 1: called great deal that Starmer pulled off the UK at
- 2:04Speaker 1: ten percent, an extra five percent isn't that much more
- 2:07Speaker 1: considering the situation where the UK actually has essentially is
- 2:11Speaker 1: running a trade surplus with the US. They are not
- 2:14Speaker 1: in the bad books, certainly on goods anyway. Let's leave
- 2:17Speaker 1: services out this out for a moment. But the EU
- 2:20Speaker 1: is the largest importer you know, into the US which
- 2:24Speaker 1: exported in the US. Part of me in the sense
- 2:25Speaker 1: that they are the biggest problem as far as Trump
- 2:28Speaker 1: would like us to see it. Therefore, and also there's
- 2:32Speaker 1: a lot of bad blood over verious different approaches to
- 2:35Speaker 1: strom ashes with the Ukraine and all manner of stuff
- 2:38Speaker 1: that clearly Trump has had problems with the Europe, so
- 2:44Speaker 1: in some senses it's shown that he's wanting to do
- 2:47Speaker 1: a deal. And of course the promises on both energy
- 2:50Speaker 1: and further investments into the US are pretty open ended
- 2:54Speaker 1: in arbitry. But it's a gesture of faith and it's
- 2:58Speaker 1: a warm, fuzzy feeling. Sure they might have liked to
- 3:01Speaker 1: have got particularly wine and spirits nailed down, and they've
- 3:05Speaker 1: still got ongoing problems in steel. But the auto situation
- 3:10Speaker 1: is bad, but not terrible. And Mertz's German chancell was
- 3:14Speaker 1: correct to say that this isn't you know. Clearly growth
- 3:17Speaker 1: is going to be hit very hard, which I cannot understand. Therefore,
- 3:19Speaker 1: while the European central banks seem to think they can
- 3:21Speaker 1: hold rate to two percent, but that's to the side
- 3:23Speaker 1: for the moment, but they will have to cut more
- 3:25Speaker 1: because this will be bad for the European economy. It's
- 3:27Speaker 1: just potentially manageable and they will be able to negotiate
- 3:32Speaker 1: through this and ongoing. This is a process. This is
- 3:35Speaker 1: not but like you know, brexit breaksit is none events
- 3:37Speaker 1: breaxit is a process, and it's likewise, these trade deals
- 3:40Speaker 1: are going to be something which will be ongoing for
- 3:42Speaker 1: the rest of our long, hopefully unhappy lives. John, We'll
- 3:45Speaker 1: be talking about these subjects because it's a new new
- 3:48Speaker 1: thing and it's not going away.
- 3:50Speaker 2: Well, the one thing I wanted to talk about is
- 3:53Speaker 2: the boy is the the poppers of the tardiffs, because
- 3:57Speaker 2: one thing that I don't think people have talked about
- 4:00Speaker 2: enough is, I mean, the US is going to make
- 4:03Speaker 2: something like three hundred billion extra tax from that this
- 4:07Speaker 2: year from the tallis as far there's someone of the
- 4:09Speaker 2: numbers I've seen thrown around.
- 4:10Speaker 1: In theory the volume stay up, which they won't.
- 4:12Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, absolutely, yeah, but you're still talking about
- 4:14Speaker 2: that is something like five percent of the tax take
- 4:20Speaker 2: currently and like it's the creivalent that Rachel reeves finding
- 4:24Speaker 2: something like sexty billion down the back of the.
- 4:26Speaker 1: For our pensions. I mean, you know, yeah, I'm just wondering.
- 4:29Speaker 2: This sort of feels as if the reconfiguration of how
- 4:33Speaker 2: the US taxes you know, the rest of the world and.
- 4:37Speaker 1: People both agree on this essentially, And I think this
- 4:40Speaker 1: is what's been unamazed at the commentariat refuses to go
- 4:45Speaker 1: on this. But you know, to my mind, what Trump
- 4:47Speaker 1: is trying to do is change the US corporate tax cones,
- 4:49Speaker 1: specifically from without. He cannot change it through Congress. He
- 4:53Speaker 1: doesn't have the ability to get it through. He's got
- 4:55Speaker 1: his big beautiful bill through and that is a pretty
- 4:57Speaker 1: meaningful change for a couple of ways. And obviously it
- 5:00Speaker 1: locks in the tax code where corporates are desperate to
- 5:05Speaker 1: keep it and rather having it rise again as would
- 5:07Speaker 1: have done under Kamala Arras and so he's fulfilled his
- 5:11Speaker 1: side of the bargain. But the reality what he's trying
- 5:13Speaker 1: to do is be elected not say him forever, but
- 5:16Speaker 1: Maga forever by essentially being able to offer a huge
- 5:20Speaker 1: income tax cut up to one hundred and fifty thousand
- 5:24Speaker 1: when it may be funded by corporates. This is bringing
- 5:27Speaker 1: back on shore US corporate revenue. And he's having to
- 5:30Speaker 1: do it by changing the rest of the world rather
- 5:32Speaker 1: than changing the US domestic tax code and indeed, say
- 5:35Speaker 1: they're sales tax into a say a vat tax. So
- 5:39Speaker 1: he is doing this and this is why. You know,
- 5:41Speaker 1: one thing we haven't gone in the European deal with
- 5:43Speaker 1: the US is the pharmaceuticals which Ireland knows is coming
- 5:46Speaker 1: down the pipe. It's going to rightly probably change the
- 5:49Speaker 1: dynamic in how so many particularly thus over seven hundred
- 5:54Speaker 1: multinationals based in Ireland and they are having a fine
- 5:58Speaker 1: time of it all paying toively minimal tax. And I
- 6:01Speaker 1: think that's what Trump is really after. He's going to
- 6:04Speaker 1: do it carefully and slowly. It is Irish popular base.
- 6:10Speaker 1: At the same time he needs to make sure that
- 6:11Speaker 1: this is all workable for the likes of Di Lily
- 6:14Speaker 1: and Bristol Mars, et cetera, et cetera. But you know,
- 6:17Speaker 1: there is a reckoning coming there on how much tax
- 6:20Speaker 1: they are keeping off shore and how much work going
- 6:22Speaker 1: back on shore and indeed what the pharmaceutical production will be.
- 6:25Speaker 1: And it's that's the same for steel, and that's the
- 6:27Speaker 1: same some sensus for autos.
- 6:29Speaker 2: See, I've got to see. I think this is where
- 6:32Speaker 2: Trump is winning. So he's winning and he's really underrated
- 6:36Speaker 2: because he's really impoison some massive stalth taxes here and
- 6:42Speaker 2: being applouded for being you know, for being there.
- 6:46Speaker 1: The big mistake was in two thousand and one China
- 6:49Speaker 1: was allowed in the World Trade Organization and exploited it.
- 6:51Speaker 1: Ever since and I believe the Germans and the French
- 6:53Speaker 1: to large degree have enabled that, and it's been quite
- 6:56Speaker 1: a useful technique for them to sell a lot of
- 6:59Speaker 1: stuff into China. One thing you must look at on
- 7:01Speaker 1: all these things is the euro to the Yuan exchange rate.
- 7:04Speaker 1: But that tells you much more. The euro is record high.
- 7:07Speaker 1: It's causing Europe a lot of pain on both sides.
- 7:09Speaker 1: It has to choose whether it's in bed with the
- 7:11Speaker 1: States or it's going to, you know, somehow do a
- 7:13Speaker 1: deal with China. I don't think either on the option
- 7:15Speaker 1: they've chosen the least worse option, which is doing a
- 7:17Speaker 1: sort of placemaker deal with the US, because they are
- 7:21Speaker 1: the dumping ground potentially for China. If they can't Chinese
- 7:24Speaker 1: can't sell goods into the States such a tariff, they're
- 7:27Speaker 1: going to sell them into Europe. So there is an
- 7:29Speaker 1: awful lot going on within Europe as far as realization
- 7:33Speaker 1: that they need to help themselves spend a lot more
- 7:35Speaker 1: on defense and a lot more infrastructure. That has yet
- 7:38Speaker 1: to transpire. A lot of promises we yet to see it.
- 7:41Speaker 1: But at least they walked through the ring of fire.
- 7:44Speaker 1: They can come out the other side, and they'll still
- 7:46Speaker 1: be alive a little bit singed, but maybe they can
- 7:49Speaker 1: do a better deal, slowly but surely. But they are
- 7:51Speaker 1: not out of the game by putting retalitory tariffs on
- 7:55Speaker 1: the US. They could they will have fallen into the
- 7:58Speaker 1: trap where they've been shown to be the one that
- 8:00Speaker 1: that example of Hopefully that or may not be China,
- 8:03Speaker 1: but it's certainly not going to be the EU. And
- 8:05Speaker 1: they can they can move on and over a period
- 8:07Speaker 1: of time, if they do deals and do the right thing,
- 8:10Speaker 1: as far as Trump can see, you'll find these the
- 8:13Speaker 1: tariffs will melt away.
- 8:14Speaker 2: I think, yeah, no, that makes a lot of sense.
- 8:17Speaker 2: Toning are we from kind of transatlantic a fields and
- 8:22Speaker 2: back to or in little Aland this week we've heard
- 8:25Speaker 2: the other thing that's been happening is Rechel Reeves and
- 8:29Speaker 2: Andrew Bailey at the Bank of England have had a
- 8:31Speaker 2: bit of a spy or allegedly allegedly allegedly well, this.
- 8:35Speaker 1: Is over not over monetary policy, which I've written about before,
- 8:38Speaker 1: which is clearly that Bailey past others have fallen out
- 8:43Speaker 1: with Reeves's economic strategy and do not believe that the
- 8:46Speaker 1: tax risers and variety of other different things have gone
- 8:49Speaker 1: through since April have helped the economy or a good
- 8:52Speaker 1: good thing that is.
- 8:56Speaker 2: A reasonable point of view.
- 8:59Speaker 1: I could possibly come you think that, John, But yeah,
- 9:01Speaker 1: I mean other people seem to do.
- 9:03Speaker 2: I needs to get half of it through.
- 9:06Speaker 1: The spending bits seems to come well, but the tax
- 9:08Speaker 1: rises somehow seem to come through. Anyways. This is a
- 9:11Speaker 1: separate matter where she's under a lot of pressure which
- 9:14Speaker 1: she seems to be recognizing that she needs to help
- 9:16Speaker 1: the city, the financial industry, and one of the key
- 9:19Speaker 1: things is obviously Revolute, which is a proper challenger bank,
- 9:23Speaker 1: not like the sort of normal ones which haven't really
- 9:25Speaker 1: challenged anything. But this is a fintech revolution of Revolute,
- 9:29Speaker 1: which you know will be a big challenge to the
- 9:33Speaker 1: major high street banks over time. And it should and
- 9:37Speaker 1: could list in the UK, And we missed out on
- 9:39Speaker 1: Shean maybe for the best, but we would and should
- 9:43Speaker 1: really have a homegrown monster like Revolute should be listing
- 9:47Speaker 1: in London but is now allegedly looking at listing in
- 9:49Speaker 1: the US.
- 9:50Speaker 2: Now.
- 9:50Speaker 1: A lot of this is performative, you know, Staff perhaps
- 9:54Speaker 1: at the same time is looking potentially to buy a
- 9:56Speaker 1: US bank to get the license the key thing and
- 9:58Speaker 1: banking license in the States, because we in the UK
- 10:01Speaker 1: will not give Revolute a banking license despite it being
- 10:05Speaker 1: a vast in the number of customers anyway presence, and
- 10:10Speaker 1: there's lots of further hoops. Rightly so, and I think
- 10:12Speaker 1: what Bailey has said, Look, don't just lean on the Treasury,
- 10:16Speaker 1: lean on the Crudential Regulatory Authority, smash heads together and
- 10:20Speaker 1: get us the way through a banking license for Revolute,
- 10:24Speaker 1: because they knock on consequences are bigger, more profound for
- 10:28Speaker 1: the existing infrastructure of banks. But more importantly, knaf off Gobba.
- 10:33Speaker 1: This is our this is our patch. You know. We
- 10:37Speaker 1: don't want the Treasury of the government leaning on telling
- 10:39Speaker 1: what the Independent Bank of England financial regulator is allowed
- 10:44Speaker 1: to do. And it does it. It's any sweet time.
- 10:47Speaker 1: There is a point there, a possibly a valid one,
- 10:50Speaker 1: but you can see for once reason may well have
- 10:53Speaker 1: a valid rationale that the regulators which he's been stamping on,
- 10:58Speaker 1: you know, fairly brusquely with CMA and changing the head
- 11:02Speaker 1: of that and a few other clearly measures on the
- 11:06Speaker 1: Financial Conduct Authority. I've got out the way of a
- 11:08Speaker 1: bunch of stuff. And there is a message coming through
- 11:10Speaker 1: from the regulators. We get it, we will get out
- 11:12Speaker 1: of the way. We are trying to be proactive and
- 11:14Speaker 1: look at growing business rather than just say no to everything.
- 11:18Speaker 1: But maybe the banking hasn't quite got the message. But
- 11:21Speaker 1: certainly I think it's an interesting dynamic that the Bank
- 11:24Speaker 1: of England governor in both is the two hatsy wears,
- 11:28Speaker 1: is pushing back against this government, which you wouldn't, necessarily
- 11:31Speaker 1: being cynical, have expected.
- 11:33Speaker 2: As fascinating to me that reeves the way that she's
- 11:37Speaker 2: trying to kind of ignate growth or get growth going
- 11:41Speaker 2: is to make the deggilt us feel uncomfortable join.
- 11:46Speaker 1: The dots up. She should have the bank totally on
- 11:49Speaker 1: board before this happens, not have to have a spat
- 11:52Speaker 1: with him because he's feeling, you know, you're stretting on
- 11:55Speaker 1: my turf. So this is where the policy doesn't join up.
- 11:58Speaker 1: She's lost the room as far as economic policy is concerned,
- 12:02Speaker 1: and she's at risk of losing whatever but potential sort
- 12:07Speaker 1: of you know from her prown Sandwich offensive prior to
- 12:09Speaker 1: the election of like yes, we're goin. We get the message.
- 12:12Speaker 1: We will help industry, will help business. We will certainly
- 12:14Speaker 1: help the city and at least she understands it, but
- 12:17Speaker 1: it's the enactment in power of policy which is not
- 12:22Speaker 1: necessarily as joined up as one would hope. However, that
- 12:25Speaker 1: does not in any way perhaps excused what the Bank
- 12:29Speaker 1: of England governor is doing on himself with regards to his
- 12:33Speaker 1: wakeful approach to management policy, or indeed he's digging his
- 12:36Speaker 1: heels on on what I think needs to be resolved.
- 12:39Speaker 1: I mean, revolute, to my mind, does deserve to get
- 12:41Speaker 1: the banking license because I will just simply walk away.
- 12:44Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I mean there's a fundamental problem with
- 12:46Speaker 2: the length of team, the stuff takes. I sympathized with
- 12:50Speaker 2: Leeves's view. The thing that baffles me slately is that
- 12:53Speaker 2: it's almost like she gnaws what should be happening in
- 12:56Speaker 2: an ideal world, but we are getting there as something.
- 13:00Speaker 2: Keep hiding bets and controlling things in trying to Tiewdal
- 13:03Speaker 2: with s norb and Day all that don't and in
- 13:06Speaker 2: fact maybe the best thing to be without to just
- 13:08Speaker 2: scraps some of this sub.
- 13:09Speaker 1: Optimal well, I think, I mean in some senses, you know,
- 13:12Speaker 1: she is I think got the right idea behind this
- 13:16Speaker 1: is just the enactment, as I said, is perhaps still
- 13:19Speaker 1: a little naive and perhaps a little amateur. But you know, equally,
- 13:23Speaker 1: I think she has to bang heads together and I'm
- 13:27Speaker 1: going to give her the benefit of the doubt in
- 13:29Speaker 1: this one. And I think mister Bailey needs to be
- 13:33Speaker 1: I understand why he's doing what he's doing. But equally
- 13:36Speaker 1: this cannot be the excuse always that we do have
- 13:39Speaker 1: to get real on this stuff. We've lost you in.
- 13:42Speaker 1: We do not need to be revolute. We need to
- 13:45Speaker 1: get our act together commercially, because if you look since
- 13:48Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, the reason why the UK economy
- 13:50Speaker 1: has got nothing to do with Brexit, you know, it's
- 13:53Speaker 1: got to do with the fact that the financial industry
- 13:56Speaker 1: has been severely heavily regulated, probably for good the initial reasons,
- 14:00Speaker 1: but you look what's happened in the US banking sector
- 14:03Speaker 1: and the US financial sector, which is leaps and bounds
- 14:06Speaker 1: done better, and we have made ourselves unnecessarily hampered and
- 14:10Speaker 1: hamstrung on every single step. We need to be proactive
- 14:13Speaker 1: and gain otherwise we will lose. We are already losing,
- 14:16Speaker 1: hopefully not termally, our financial sector, which is the largest
- 14:19Speaker 1: earner of tax and twelve and a half percent of
- 14:22Speaker 1: our economy as was and you know, really, you know
- 14:24Speaker 1: this is this is we want to have a sufficient
- 14:26Speaker 1: revenue taxes to be able to do all the spending
- 14:28Speaker 1: plans they want. The easiest and best way is to
- 14:32Speaker 1: make sure that your financial sector, which is world leading stay.
- 14:35Speaker 2: Sat Yeah, that makes perfect sense, and then I guess.
- 14:39Speaker 1: It happened then, yeah, exactly.
- 14:41Speaker 2: As a boys for moving on from that into a
- 14:45Speaker 2: kind of related topic that you or about this week,
- 14:48Speaker 2: you can reckon that we're going to we're going to
- 14:50Speaker 2: need this growth because the UK construmer is looking very
- 14:55Speaker 2: fairly timid at the moment.
- 14:57Speaker 1: Well it's actually held on's held up well. But you know,
- 15:01Speaker 1: we've had a very nice summer, which is which affects
- 15:03Speaker 1: dynamics and certain things. That helps some hospitality in some retail,
- 15:07Speaker 1: it hampers some retail in different ways. And obviously if
- 15:10Speaker 1: you have a warm autumn, it means people don't spend
- 15:12Speaker 1: for winter clothing and you have a bad start into
- 15:16Speaker 1: this sort of golden quarter of the last you know
- 15:19Speaker 1: where Black Friday is named, you know, the end of
- 15:24Speaker 1: Thanksgiving for a reason. It's when you know, retailers in
- 15:26Speaker 1: theory turn profitable, and certainly what they need is the
- 15:30Speaker 1: consumer to keep on turning up. Three fifths of our economy,
- 15:34Speaker 1: sixty two percent is consumption, which matches sixty eight percent
- 15:37Speaker 1: in the States. We are big consumer led economies, the
- 15:40Speaker 1: UK and US very similar in that way, and we
- 15:43Speaker 1: need the consumer to stop some saving. But we're seeing
- 15:47Speaker 1: bank deposits rising, We're seeing the savings rate go up,
- 15:50Speaker 1: which is a precursor of the paradox of thrift, which
- 15:53Speaker 1: is in essence, people hold back. They are on sure
- 15:55Speaker 1: what's going to happen economic policy if we get a
- 15:57Speaker 1: rinse repeat of last year. And they came into power
- 16:01Speaker 1: and July the fourth and basically said, right, there's black
- 16:03Speaker 1: holes everywhere we are going. The world is going to end.
- 16:06Speaker 1: We are going to we are going to have to
- 16:07Speaker 1: really do bad things in October budget. It just killed
- 16:09Speaker 1: the momentum economy, killed confidence, which has not recovered since.
- 16:13Speaker 1: Obviously all these tax risers came in play in April.
- 16:17Speaker 1: We are under the threat of the same happening again,
- 16:20Speaker 1: and that will be really comparing the family, and I
- 16:23Speaker 1: think would be criminal in the sense of, you know,
- 16:26Speaker 1: I think rees would would not recover. You know, she's
- 16:29Speaker 1: managed to hang on more by luck than judgment, but
- 16:32Speaker 1: she cannot have a repeata what happened last year into
- 16:34Speaker 1: into the run up into this year's autumn budget. But
- 16:38Speaker 1: the consumers showing signs and being fearful and are pulling back.
- 16:41Speaker 1: And there's definitely food inflation, and definitely the minimum wage
- 16:44Speaker 1: ries and variety of other employer taxes and our national
- 16:47Speaker 1: insurance contributions is really feeding through. You know, employers are
- 16:51Speaker 1: feeding price rises into the system which is starting to
- 16:54Speaker 1: be hit on consumer activity and savior rates going up.
- 16:57Speaker 1: You know, that's where people pull back. Money setting bankrup
- 17:00Speaker 1: deposits is not working in the economy, which means growth
- 17:03Speaker 1: will fall off and they need it. They need it
- 17:06Speaker 1: to get through you know, as you know, they can't
- 17:07Speaker 1: cut spend needs. They basically said in this government they
- 17:10Speaker 1: will not be able to cut back on any of
- 17:12Speaker 1: the welfare budget unless they have a wholly new approach,
- 17:16Speaker 1: which you know they'll have to. But the string isn't
- 17:19Speaker 1: coming together, and I fear that we will have a
- 17:22Speaker 1: very large pension tax rate and obviously a fiscal drag
- 17:26Speaker 1: on and income tax bands extended in the October budget.
- 17:30Speaker 1: And you know, consumers can smell this, and that's why,
- 17:33Speaker 1: you know, we end up getting the cause and effect
- 17:35Speaker 1: where all of sudden things get worse before andything's actually
- 17:38Speaker 1: really happened. But by that stage it's too late. Oh no,
- 17:41Speaker 1: I wasn't going to ever do this. Well, yeah, you've
- 17:43Speaker 1: got to tell us upfront, what's you know? Wealth tax,
- 17:46Speaker 1: for instance, seems to be ruled out, but it hasn't
- 17:49Speaker 1: been ruled out in a definitive sense. But she can't
- 17:51Speaker 1: rule it out because he's right about our backbenchers. However,
- 17:54Speaker 1: something is going to have to give, and I think
- 17:55Speaker 1: that requires a much more proactive approach on being honest
- 17:59Speaker 1: with what you going to do and why she's going
- 18:01Speaker 1: to do it. I think some pension tax reductions, as
- 18:05Speaker 1: far as the tax relief is concerned, as far as
- 18:07Speaker 1: the annual amount and on one or two other things,
- 18:10Speaker 1: can make some sense if it's presented without in a
- 18:12Speaker 1: coherent way.
- 18:13Speaker 2: I mean, I suppose it might because it's future pain
- 18:17Speaker 2: and a funny kind of way make it away with it.
- 18:20Speaker 2: But I mean, I mean, this is a topic for
- 18:23Speaker 2: a different podcast, But the problem with reforming pensions tax
- 18:28Speaker 2: relief is always the under the boone it affects the
- 18:32Speaker 2: public sector as well, and that's one reason why they've always.
- 18:37Speaker 1: It never affects the public sector pension. That's the that's
- 18:39Speaker 1: part of the problem.
- 18:39Speaker 2: Well, yeah, exactly, But what I mean is if you
- 18:42Speaker 2: if you do it properly, then you end up having
- 18:46Speaker 2: increased the contribution.
- 18:48Speaker 1: They can't they can't do wholesalform because they don't have
- 18:51Speaker 1: the bandwidth to do it.
- 18:53Speaker 2: Then they don't reason enough money.
- 18:55Speaker 1: By the majority. They don't have that. They're going to tinker,
- 18:57Speaker 1: they're going to cut them some things back. Perhaps Jeremy
- 19:00Speaker 1: Hault was a little bit too generous on a few
- 19:01Speaker 1: things prior to the last selection. We all know what
- 19:04Speaker 1: he really should have done, just reverse his two employee
- 19:09Speaker 1: national insurance sort of bungs. But equally on some of
- 19:12Speaker 1: the pension of stuff that he did. Perhaps he was
- 19:14Speaker 1: too generous. Maybe some of that should have would get
- 19:16Speaker 1: rowed back. But you know, the reality here is is
- 19:20Speaker 1: really going back to nineteen ninety seven when Gordon Brown
- 19:24Speaker 1: did two things which you know, the Bank of England independence,
- 19:26Speaker 1: everyone seems things a great idea, though the banking I
- 19:29Speaker 1: don't think has lived up to its task, not in
- 19:31Speaker 1: recent years particularly, but The other thing he did is
- 19:34Speaker 1: he cut dividend tax credits and that is still killing
- 19:38Speaker 1: our pension, you know, and it's killed a financial sector.
- 19:41Speaker 1: It's the main reason actuarily why you have a very
- 19:44Speaker 1: low investment in UK equities. You know. These things are
- 19:46Speaker 1: all course from a under the bonnet, as you said,
- 19:50Speaker 1: change which you know no one will noticed. And he
- 19:52Speaker 1: got away with it. But you know, but like selling gold,
- 19:55Speaker 1: you know when he did, these things come back and
- 19:57Speaker 1: continue to cause us pain even now.
- 20:01Speaker 2: Ah, it's a It's good to end on a high note.
- 20:06Speaker 1: Thanks always happening.
- 20:08Speaker 2: Yes, thanks for watching, Marcus. I look forward to having
- 20:10Speaker 2: you back on and actually probably next week because Marnon's
- 20:13Speaker 2: still on our holidays if you're around for another session
- 20:16Speaker 2: of holiday exactly see up the workers, That's what I say. Hemy.
- 20:27Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to this week's Merton Talks Money deprief.
- 20:30Speaker 2: If you like our show, rate review and subscribe wherever
- 20:32Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts, make sure it's a five star review.
- 20:36Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Summer, Sadie and Moses and
- 20:38Speaker 2: am special thanks to Marcus Ashworth and questions and comments
- 20:42Speaker 2: on the show and all our shows are always welcome.
- 20:45Speaker 2: The show email is Merion Money at bloomberd dot net.