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The Favorites - NFL Week 4 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Today is our Tuesday, Week four episode. We will break
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: our exec decision and our assignment says. We will start
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: to narrow down the options for our five phaves to
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: put in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest. We went two and three last week.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Always frustrating when we have so many games we like,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: so many games. We talked about on the pod that
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: we said we were betting, that we did bet and
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: then put all the wrong games into the contest.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: But we did good work.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: We feel okay, feeling very optimistic. We're moving on live
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as always
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: by my co host Might BFF, my companion Michael Padre,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: professional Better Simon Hunter Ello.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: So I'm in.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hello chid No. It's good to hear brother. It's like
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: the song I get knocked down, I Get up again.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: You're never going to keep me down. I want to
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: keep the vibes high. My Phillies won our division for
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: the first time in thirteen years, and unfortunately on a
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: day that should have been a celebration, the Monday night
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: game didn't break our way. But like you said, we're
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: moving on. Not can get two being down by that.
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: We bet on ugly teams here. Sometimes they do not
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: get off the bus. That's how it is. Yeah, when
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: you're bet ugly teams, it can get ugly fast.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Look, it's just it's always annoying when we go through games.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: And like we knew we were betting the Panthers, but
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: we wouldn't put it in. We knew we were betting
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the Giants, but we wouldn't put it in. Like, those
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: things are so frustrating, But whatever, we move on.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: I feel good about the work.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I already feel good about some of the games you
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and I have discussed that I have already bet.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you nailed it. You had a couple of good
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: calls Sunday nightshoed.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm feeling good. In a moment, we'll recap the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: results of week three in our Contents contest announce the
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: winner of our thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If you
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: haven't yet, be sure to sign up for the Free
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: contest presented.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: By Bet three six y five.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites is
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six y five and now new
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: And more.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at beout three six five.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply all right. Easiest week in the contest with
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: three percent of participants going five and oh. Congrats to
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: all those who did it. The Week three first place
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: winner by year by year, I like that by year,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: win five and oh in the contest and missed the
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: tiebreaker by just one yard. As always, Matt Mitchell has
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: selected his Producer's Cup award to the entry that finished
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: dead fucking last in the contest.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: About the Lordsome lose.
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: He's a Louis about his try.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to j Burnett thirty, who
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: went zero to five missed the tiebreaker by four hundred.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: And eighty four yards.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Jay Burnett email Matt at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: to claim your prize.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Let's get to it.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: is four and a half. You said right away bet this,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: and it was at five and a half you were
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the Hot Reads segment
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: on the Overnight Pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I love that segment. I betted at four and a half.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet it, Toune. I think it's just a
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: little professional money game, and it took the Giants to
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: show them the money line. It's all bad right now for
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: the Cowboys, Right, It's just I understand that why they're
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: pushing up against it, And I told you it was
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: the same reason I wanted to take the Ravens. Right,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: they can't stop the run and they can't run the ball.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: The Cowboys can't do the two most important things right
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: now in the NFL. Right, we've seen a shift in
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: this league that if you can't run the ball and
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: teams can make you one dimensional, you're just not going
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: to succeed. So it's it's crazy like we went on
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: a crazy run where Dallas is untouchable at home and
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: now going back to that Green Bay game the playoffs
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: last year, they've had three straight home games and they've
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: just gotten dominated. It's it's pretty pretty wild to think that,
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: like this is a team that we were down coming
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: in on the season, and a lot of things we
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: were questioning has proved to be true. Right. They don't
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: have a running back. They should have paid Derek Henry,
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: which I know all the talk shows are going to
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: talk about, but it's true. It's like you're paying your
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: third string quarterback five million dollars Trey Lance. Would you
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: rather have him or Eric Henry. It just doesn't make
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: sense why Jerry didn't make that move. So you know,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: they're a team that people want to fade right now,
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: and I'm going the other way. Chat you know how
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: I like to do it, but it is the public side.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: But we talk all the time on Thursday night games.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: I don't get as worried about it being such a
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: public heavily side, just because it is an island game.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: And you know, this historically is the spot to take
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Dak and this Cowboys team. They just own the Giants historically.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: You know, in this exact spot last year. I think
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: there was week when they played they beat them forty
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: to nothing. Are they still that same team? No, we
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: think the Giants have gotten better and we think Dallas
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: has gotten worse. I think it's a bit of an
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: overcorrection though, right just because the Giants played so well
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: last week and Dallas to look played so bad that
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: I agree with Brandon Anderson. I had this at six
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: six and a half, so I'm gonna take the value
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: like you said at four and a half, and I
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: could see this line going back up to five to
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: five and a half. Six.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: The real question, and look it got down to four
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: has been back up back up to four and a half.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: The real question isn't would you rather have Derek Henry
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: or Trey Lance. The real question is would you rather
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: have Mike McCarthy or Bill Belichick? Think about that, the
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Cowboys got blown out by the Packers. We thought Jerry
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Jones would have hired Bill Belichick.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: At halftime of that game.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Do you remember we were at one of our live
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: shows for that and we were all over the Packers
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: of touchdown dogs and that game was done within the
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: first five minutes of the game, and we were all joking,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: oh my god, all right, when are they going to
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: fire mc McCarthy. The fact they kept Mike McCarthy, I
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: gotta tell you, like the way GM zone owners make
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: decisions about their coaches, Like we can't believe the Bears
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: kept Matt Eberfluse and hired the offensive corner they did
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: when they were clearly going to lose a year of
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams as a rookie in his rookie contract. Right,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: it makes no sense why Mike McCarthy is still the
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: coach of this team. Was a jerry not wanting to
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: pay two coaches at one time and cheapen out. He
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: didn't get defensive line help, like there's weakness on the
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: offensive line, there's weakness in the backfield, like it's a mishmash. However,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: we bet the Giants last week. They got the exact
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: right team at the exact right time for the exact
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: right line.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: The Browns had won the week.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Before against what is clearly a terrible Jacks team. The
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: line got inflated. The Giants had lost the week before
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: because they couldn't kick any extra points because they made
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a bad roster decision. They blizzed fifty seven percent of
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: the time against Deshaun Watson.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: That was the highest for.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Any team in Week three, and they didn't make mistakes
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: on offense. But the Cowboys were so bad and the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Giants were so good that I still feel like there's
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: value in this line.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Screams get right.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Spot for DAK Division Dogs on Thursday Night Football, the
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: last decade forty four percent against the spread, which is
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: something you say all the time.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like you don't.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Need to bet the dogs in this spot on Thursday night.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: You went against it last week too with the Jets
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: and the Pats.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: And just to touch on real quickly, we said about
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: the coaching, which I totally agree with, is it feels
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: like it's the old boys club, right. The Bears have
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: old ownership. Jerry's an old owner, like they like these guys.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: They make them their friends instead of making a real
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: business decision. So I totally agree with you. We said
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: it last year the Bears should have moved on and
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: got an offensive minded guide to pair with their young quarterback,
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: and now they're suffering for it. And with the Cowboys,
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: there's no excuse, right, They kept McCarthy, they brought in
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: Mike Zimmer. Neither moves that look like they're paying off
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: right now this season. So it's all bad in Dallas.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: But I'm backing them in the spot.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: It's terrible, it's awful. We're backing them in the spot.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Thank god we can't put them in the contest, cause
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I agree, and we'd be totally totally screwed. Denver at
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: the New York Jets. Look, we said last week we
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: never have to bet the Broncos again, right, we got
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: them in the exact right spot somehow. Despite all their
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: good fortune last week, they are still a luck rankings
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: team to back and this season dogs of six plus points,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: eight and five straight up, twelve and one against the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: spread through three weeks, covering by nine points per game.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So I know I lean Jets here. It's not a
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: must bet, not even a contest play for me at
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: like your thoughts before I dig in a little bit deeper,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: I thought.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: You're gonna talk. I saw even a dumber stat that's
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: just how crazy and walking this year. And I don't
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: know how. I mean, you aren't up millions of dollars?
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: Dogs are so stupid more or four? No, Chad, straight up,
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: straight up?
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, how are we not?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: How are we not fifteen to oh when our lives
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: betting big dogs, like we've made so many bad decisions
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: like getting caught in the moment. We're not gonna go
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: into a rabbit hole, Simon, We're.
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: Just gonna But I'm just I'm bringing out the point
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: here of they know what they're doing with this line.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: I want to take Denver, But I think Chad's right.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: I got a hold, firm and go the Jets. This
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: is a good matchup for this Jets offense and defense,
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: I mean defensively. We know what this Jets team can do,
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: especially up front. And you know the bronc was coming
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: off a double digit win now on their back to
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: back road games. This historically is a letdown spot for
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: a vetteran team, let alone a very young team. So
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: we see this now coming down a little bit. Right
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: at what's seven and a half? It's down to seven.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait, hope and get the six and a
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: half right if it crosses seven, But if it does
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: go back up with seven and a half and a
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: lot of books, I'll jump in real quick and grab
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: the seven. But I'm gonna wait on this number for
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: a little bit.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so tricky.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I know we want to believe in bo Nix. I
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: know we both liked him in training camp. I know
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: we have bet the Bronc pretty consistently in this early
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: part of the year. The trends at least for this
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: year back the Broncos.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: It's really.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Do we think that they are overvalued?
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: The Jets because of what they did against the Patriots.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Or do we think that the Broncos are actually better
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: than they had been the first couple of weeks of
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the season and they were really more like the team
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that they were against the Buccaneers. That's really the situation.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I guess we're gonna hold out. Yeah, we're going to
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: hold out, all right, since he at Carolina, since he's
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: a four.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: And a half point favorite.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Well, well, well, simon, the team we love the most
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: in the offseason.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: One game out of first.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: To tango with the Chiefs for the AFC title.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Bengals, No, and the team we love the most in
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the offseason to outperform expectations. It is a battle of
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: favorites Titans this weekend.
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: We love these teams, both have been letting us down.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: The Bilow cell High philosophy would tell us to take
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: the Bengals here one hundred percent. Do we go against
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the Red Rifle in his first home start after revitalizing
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: this moribund team. I will say one of the bigger
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: luck rankings game this week favors the Bengals.
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I want to take the Bengals, and I feel
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: like you're right, but it's like this number feels too
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: high for how bad this Bengals defense is, like, and
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: he's going to get opportunities on offense. And we talked
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: about like that offensive line is pretty damn good for Carolina.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: They were the fifth graded pass blocking offensive line heading
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: to that Raiders game. Now they're up to number three
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: after facing Wilkins and Max Crosby. Who scares you. I mean,
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: I guess Hendrix is pretty good on this front for
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: the Bengals, But overall, just this Bengals team feels so
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: damn young. I feel like there's ways that can be attacked.
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: So to me, the number is still too high. Like
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I was gonna play this one even before last night's results.
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: And you know, we saw something we'd never seen before
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: in the history of the NFL. Right it was two
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: teams played, they didn't pun a single time, and basically
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: every time they got the ball they got some type
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: of points. That was the first time that's happening in
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: a game since nineteen forty. So all the stature right now,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: especially about Jayden Daniels and him offensively, I get it
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: like he might be a better right, they might be
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: better than this Carolina team. At the same time, it's like,
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: how much worse is this Carolina team? Right with Andy
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Dlon like, there's some stuff they can do. I know,
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: Feeling just got it on the ir as well, which
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: is a big deal for them. Losing him as a
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: wide receiver. It doesn't sound like the it should be
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: a big deal, but Andy don't even knew and to
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: use him on third downs like he was a nice,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: reliable safety blanket. So I'm not trying to overrate the
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: loss of him. But you know, Miles Sanders, Tuba Hubbard,
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: like their offense is a lot of stuff to like,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: the question for us is defense, right, We're not going
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: to get stops with this Carolina team against Burrow. Burrow
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: was a man on a mission in that game, and
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: you know he lost that game because this team kicked
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: two field goals, like that was how they lost that game.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: So you're right, Like, I'm torn on this one. I
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: want to be on the Bengals, but right now the
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: numbers too high. I have a three and a half,
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: so I'm getting a full point of value right now
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: unless Panthers team. So I'll take it, but not with
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: a ton of confidence, Like you're talking.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: I need more intel.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I need to see where twelve hours removed, thirteen hours
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: removed from the games last night, Like I need to
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: know a lot more about this Bengals team. I feel
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: like they are the right side if we're playing Bilo
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: sell high. We got to sell the Panthers and we
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: got to buy the Bengals. But I'm not loving this
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: situation right now. Bigger question, simon, have the Philadelphia Eagles
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: been fixed? Because right now they are two and a
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: half point favorites at Tampa Bay. One of the one
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: of one of the games that you pegged on Sunday night. Yea,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the Bucks were plus two. You wanted this to go higher.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: It went higher Monday afternoon it got to two and
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: a half. This is this is like to me, a
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: battle of who can cover with a much thinner roster, right,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: like the like the the box that without vitavea Anchwine.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Winfield has missed his missed his second straight game against den.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: Now we need were betting the Bucks here like.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Luke their their tackle.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Luke Gotti Key missed Week three with the concussion, which
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: is why Denver was in Baker's face all day while
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Lane Johnson concussion, Davonte Smith concussion. AJ Brown we don't
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: know yet, but it's hard to know for certain he
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: will come back from a hamstring injury. And by the way,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: the Eagles have a bye the week after this, do
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: they sit all these guys and let everyone get healthy
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: with an extra week of rest? Like why do we
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: let Why did you peg the box as a team
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: you liked here.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: Not just because it was gonna be a nice spot
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: to take them, just because people are going to think themselves, well,
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: this Bucks team is who we thought they were, Right,
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: they just got rolled by Bownecks and a rookie. When
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, you watched a lot of that game. Everything
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: that could go wrong went wrong for this Bucks team
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: in that game. Well, the flip side that Eagles team.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: They're another team. I don't think we had seen anything
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: in the history of football. Right. They had two fourth
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: downs they failed on they had a fumble, they had
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: a pick in the end zone, they had a blocked punt,
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: and they still somehow won that game against the Saints.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: So I'll give Eagles credit for being incredibly resilient. Right,
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: they either could be zero for three or right now
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: or three. You know, they're just like the Chiefs where
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: people are like, how the hell are the Chiefs three? Know,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: And it's just like they're one of those teams that
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: has that type of Naxie where they just at the
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: end of games, they don't lose their cool and they
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: win these games they give. You said about this Eagles
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: team right now, it's like, you know, they're they're winning games.
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: I just can't believe they're winning. And I think you
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: said it last show, right, it was like a miracle.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: But I viewed it as just a very resilient team
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: who they're losing pieces, but they're figuring it out. And
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: I think the same with this Bucks team where everything
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: went wrong in that game. And I do agree with
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: you that like having those pieces missing, it's a huge deal.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: Like this Eagles team will be able to ball control
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: by running the ball with Saquon, but on the flip side,
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: Slay might miss this game as well for this Eagles team.
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: So now you have a very young secondary going up
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: against Godwin Mike Evans and you know, a passing offense
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: that can move the ball downfield. So I think that's
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: why the professionals are coming on this Bucks team. Where
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: this number should be closer to one, maybe a pick.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Now it's up to two and a half. I mean
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: you talk on timeol Key number that is, well, we'll
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: grab that number and then I open up the action
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: now and it's basically all the money. All the tickets
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: right now early are on the Eagles side. So it's like,
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: maybe this goes up to three. But I know the
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: professionals are coming on this Bucks team. It's just a
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: nice spot to take them after that loss. And this
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: Eagles team, I do think they're good. But like you
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: just said, all those injuries at one point, did that
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: come back around? Like I just I don't see how
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: they're going to move the ball with third fourth string
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: receivers where they've already been struggling moving the ball. Not
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: moving the ball, I should say, but finishing these drives. Right,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: They're a team that they're like one for five or
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: two for six on fourth downs this season. And I
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: think he's up to two or three red zone turnovers now,
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts. So as good as the Egles have looked
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: and B two and one, there's a lot of bad
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: this team has produced.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Is this a game we're putting on our list. Like,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: to me, we're not putting Denver and the Jets on
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: there right now.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: I definitely bet it like Tampa's on one of my five.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: It is all right, but it's not, as Simon says.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: It's certainly out an execut decision.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: You know what Simons is going to be. It's coming up.
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: It's coming up, all right, all right.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I put Tampa on the list so far, Tampa is
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the first game on the list. I think there are
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of games that are going to end up
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: on this list. When I was going through here, I
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: already had three or four.
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some good home dogs this week.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: La Rams at Chicago's Look. This opened at one. I
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: loved it at one. I did bet it at two
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: and a half because, like as soon as our show
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: is over on Sunday night, sometimes I just shook the
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: computer down and go downstairs and then cry into a pillow.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: You two and one. At that point, I'm shocked you
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: didn't bet this. Lives are good. I bet it's a call.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: That was a good call.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: It was a good call by me. Yeah, I bet
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: it at two and a half. It touched three for
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: a minute, went back down to two and a half.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: The wise guy's betted again, so now it's just sitting
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: at three. Look, the Rams needed a perfect four minutes
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: and fifty seven seconds to beat the Niners.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: They had no joke.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: According to ESPN's expected win percentage, a five percent chance
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: to win that game, and everything went right.
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: He boldly blended the varied talents of his teammates like
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: a skilled conductor. He directed them in a classic two
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: minute drill.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Jordan Mason had just converted a second and one. The
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Niners were up twenty four to seventeen. After that, the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Niners had a penalty, couldn't advance the ball, missed a
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: fifty five.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Yard field goal.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: They then gave up a touchdown in three plays, couldn't
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: advance the ball again, gave up a thirty eight yard
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: punt return, committed three penalties in one play, including a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: twenty eight yard pass interference, and allowed the game winning kick.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: That is as lucky as you can get in the
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: exact environment you want to get lucky, which is at
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: home against your biggest rival as a huge underdog, with
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: so much of your roster injured, including your two top receivers,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: most of your offensive line, your defense still figuring out
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: who they are, and if we talked about a Sunday night,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: the Bears were only down seventy three at the end
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: of the third or Indie score a touchdown with thirty
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: seconds left in the third quarter, they were down fourteen
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: to nine late in the fourth, like they were the
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: comedy of errors for an entire game that the Niners
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: were for those last five minutes. Like you have to
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: expect the bears luck to improve and the Rams to regress,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: and the Bears to be in a better spot with
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: a very good pass rush against an offensive line that
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: I still think is seriously in trouble.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And we got an early sharp call about this
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: pick from Marcella The Night Show, and a guy was
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: saying to me, you guys are pretty confident that Chicago's pick,
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: And I said yeah, And obviously we looked smart because
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: the number move the way we talked about it. But
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: his view of it was, you're getting McVeigh and Stafford
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: against a rookie couart back and a coach that he
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: thinks is an idiot and evil flew. So I get
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: where he's coming from, Chad, but me and you have
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: to look past that sometimes and kind of play the
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: situation and the number and the matchup, and I agree
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: with you. I like this matchup for this Bears team.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Now the fear is will Williams make the throws because
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: they had a couple throws in that game against the
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Colts where it's like, this is why you're the number
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: one pick, Like you have so much talent, there's so
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: much there but me, and you question your OC and
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: for good reason. It's just like in consistency, the play
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: calling sometimes is just so terrible. So I get people's
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: pushback and hesitation, but two and a half is still
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: under three. It's such a nice number, Like I could
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: see this being one of the favorites we do take
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: this week. Matchup wise, that ram secondary, they made Kyler
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: Murray look like a Hall of Fame and then last
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: week Brock Purdy had an incredible game as well. He
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: was not the reason they lost that game. If you
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: go looking at his stats, he played really well at
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: three four three j yards. I think you had three touchdowns,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: Auto Jennings. You know there's gonna be plays to be had,
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: especially with DJ Moore on a donze, Like it looked
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: like you really started figuring it out last week I
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: gaest that Colt's team about running those patterns and how
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: to get open, and there's just a lot I just
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: a lot I like right now for this Bears team.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: And I'm trying not to let you influence me with
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: your love for it as well, because you know, these
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: early lines we get on it, like I already bet
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: them a minus one. I still like the value, Like
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: Chad just said it, this number, But at what point
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: does that change?
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: Right?
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: If this does get to three and a half in
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: our contest, No, me and Chat would not be taking
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: that number putting the contest. So two and a half
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: I like it with you. Once across is that three
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: and we start getting up there as a week goes
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: along here, because you know, I do think hopefully the
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: public will come in on this Rams team, so maybe
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: we get a better number here. But two and a
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: half I'm still comfortable with taking that with this Bear's team, Simon, Yeah.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Not even already incompetent Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: keep me from making this my executive decision, exact decision.
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: Are you have your honors?
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: Text?
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Acute executive decision.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: There we go.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it. I love the Bears GM. I love
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: the maneuvering he's done to get the Bear's talent, to
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: get the Bears draft picks the last couple of years.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: You get a little bit lucky, but you put yourself
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: in a position to be lucky by doing.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: What he did.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Why this team did not get rid of Iberflus. Why
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: this team brought in Shane Waldron, who, like even the
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Seahawks receivers last year, Jackson Smith and Jigba, was so
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: glad to get rid of this guy. Like couldn't fake
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: how much he thought it was an upgrade to get
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: rid of Shane Waldron. There's so many great minds out there.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Why did they end up with a middling offensive coordinator
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: and a middling record as an offensive coordinator. It doesn't
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: make any sense to me. New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: is a one and a half point favorite. This almost
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: feels like a game we have to bet you, yes,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to know you well. I think
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: I know what we have to do. I don't know
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: if you know what I think we we have to
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: do because I haven't been impresed with with the Falcons defense,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: especially in the red zone, like they did a number
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: on the.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Eagles and the Chiefs.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Their coverage is top ten in the league. Okay, but
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: it's very hard to go back to.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: The well on Atlanta.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: We don't know the status of Drew Dolman and Kaylin McGarry,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: which is the whole reason we liked them against the Chiefs.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Their ability to block and create holes for Bijon against
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: a Chiefs run defense that is just not very good.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: And then we saw how much their absence mattered in
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the rest of the game. Saints pass rush was mediocre.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Falcons is non existent. Saints coverage is top five Pro
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Football Focus. Falcons may not be able to get to
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: run the ball.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: And then there's this.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Home division favorites forty five percent against the spread since
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen, three games like that this week
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: short home division favorite of three points or less last
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: twenty years, also forty five percent against the spread, forty
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: one percent since twenty twenty. I know what you want
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: to say, Go ahead and say it.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: But no, you're right talking about the offensive line with Atlanta.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: Like to me, they're up fourteen seven. Both those guys
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: went out and I literally said that. The guy I
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: was with, I was like, there's no way we're going
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: to win this bet now now, like that.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Impacted the end of the game, like they couldn't run
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the ball, like they couldn't make the right decision.
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: The refs did fuckus though, that Ballshipman on the one,
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: we should have a walk in touchdown and then that's right,
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: Mahomes is going to drive the field to get a
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: field goal, and that's how that game was going to end.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: You know, just that was just this season, that was
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: by far our worst bet loss, Like that was one.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: I don't know if Nick gave you the numbers yet
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: we covered that like seventy percent of the time, Like
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: that was that was the right side. So that's always
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: brutal and you lose those type of bets.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: But I do think though, on the next drive after that,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: when we got screwed by the ref on that Kyle
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Pitts play in the back of the end zone.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: They gave him three makeup balls in a row.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Yes, they gave us three makeup like every time they
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: threw the flag. I'm like, oh, that's a makeup call.
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: Oh not good enough. I was like, it's already over.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: I just knew no matter what, we weren't going to
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: get there. But in this matchup you nailed it. Though.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: I feel like you talked about like the secondary of
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: this Atlanta team is a strength, and you basically saw
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: the blueprint the Eagles have given out here. Eagles do not,
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: I think we can both agree, do not have good
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: edge rushers, like I would say the Falcons might be
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: even better with pass rushers on the edge, Like our
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: best maats rush on the Egles right now is Brandon Graham,
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: who's like thirty six years old. It is you know
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: what they did. They held the edge that's all you
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: have to do against the Saints apparently, and forced Kamara
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: back inside and they struggle. So that's I don't think
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: it's gonnae that hard for this Falcons team to take
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: that film. Egles just laid out there and set the edge. Now,
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: obviously they don't have their own Jalen Card in the middle,
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: but they do have pieces around it they can make
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: it work. So I had this number of minus three
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: and a half before all the injuries to the O line.
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Now it's down to minus three. So I'm still getting
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: some good value on this Atlanta team. But I get
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: where your hesitation is. Like, to me, this was gonna
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: be automatic one of our five. Now that both these
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: guys might be out, that's a big deal. And now
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: on the flip side, the all pro center for the
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: Saints is going to be out. So it's like, you know,
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: as bad as it is for the Falcons, it's not
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: that much better for this Saints team, Like that was
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: really their anchor to that team that you know, they
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: have their own questions marked up front on that offensive line.
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Chad, I get where you're coming from. Like
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: those those stats do scare me a little bit that
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: this probably isn't the best spot to take these home FAI,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: But I do like it, Landing Or I do think
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: the number reflects us getting some value. So maybe by
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: Thursday I'll get you to force this one in, But
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: for right now, I get your hesitation. With all the
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: unknown injuries to this Atlanta.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Team, Yeah, it's just weird to me that your number
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: only moved half a point off of these two guys
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: who might be the two best players at their position
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: in the league and are the main reason why the
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: Falcons are able to move the ball like their offense
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: only works with play action, and the play action only
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: works if people believe they can run the ball, and
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: no one believes they can run the ball when these
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: guys aren't playing. That right side of their offensive line
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: is the most dominant right side, including the center, in
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: the league. That has been the case for the past
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: two years.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: It is a big deal, but it's really to move
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: the number man, you got to be either the quarterback
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: or like one of the most important all pros. Again,
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: moving by half a point, I don't know. That just
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: sound like much to you, but that's that's a lot
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: of respect for these alignments. So like that Eagles losing
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: lanes and he argued he's one of the best tackles
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: on all football. I didn't even move at all for him.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: And it's just that's just because I believe the guys
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: they brought in. I mean, you saw Saquon's huge run
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: was after they already brought him the backup. So it's like,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: you know, it is a big deal with some teams,
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: but other teams, You're right, it's like it's probably a
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: bigger deal to Lanta. Maybe I'm underrating a little bit,
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: but even I move it a full point, it's still
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: two and a half, So it's like, Okay, we're still
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: getting a full point a value a on this Atlanta team.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it's just really about the matchups in the trenches.
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: I get the hesitation here just because of these injuries,
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: but I still think it favors this Atlanta team overall.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: This is what raises an interesting question. The value is
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: probably on Atlanta. I think the Saints got a little
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: bit exposed against the Eagles. The trends favor backing the Saints,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: So then it comes down to the players on the field,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: and like, there's so many injuries here that could.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Shape this in a way that could go either way.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Right, you got to think that maybe the Falcon staff
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: is going to be able to make more adjustments obviously
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: through the course of a week of practice than they
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: could do from the second quarter to the end of
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the game.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: Very tricky, very very tricky.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: I'm curious I'm gonna put this on the list. I
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: don't know that we're gonna want to bet multiple short
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: home favorites, So it'll be curious to me, Like, are
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: the Bears a short home favorite?
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: We like?
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Are the Falcons a short home favorite?
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: Like?
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Is there going to be somebody else we'll have to
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: wait and see. We'll see as we get closer. I
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: do want to mention Simon, as I've said at the
• 32:46
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• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Jags at Houston Houston is now a six and a
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. This line has moved two full points
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: in the past fourteen hours since.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: The game ended.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: The trends tell you to bet the Jags here our eyes,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: tell us pass or bet the Texans. And I know
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: we're not putting a six and a half point division
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: home favorite in the contest, No we can't.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: But you're right, it's like there is nothing, nothing that
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: build off to want to bet this Jaguars team, even
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: if the trends the numbers point to it. It just
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: feels all bad right now for them. And you know
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: we try to give them benefit of doubt, and that
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: team showed zero life defensively then offensively, I mean Trevor Lawrence,
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: that picky through, that's I mean, you just don't see
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: that in the pros, right yeah, maybe from our first
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: or second year starter, but it's like you're overthrowing a
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: guy who's wide open, high to the to the edge
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: to where the safety is. It's like, man, it's so bad.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: I told you, like, what was that last week or
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: two weeks ago. He's definitely one of my bigger misses
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: on guys I probably could come out of college. It's
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: just he was so great for Clemson and played so
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: well against great defenses in college, like showed up in
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: big moments in big games, and you know we gave
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: him the benefit of the doubt because of urban and
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: we're like, Okay, you know, Doug will come in, he'll
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: fix this. I mean the weapons they have to offensively,
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: these are some of the best weapons he's ever played
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: with and it's just not working. So I got no
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: read on this one. Like I'm with you, I want
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: to take the Jaguars in this spot, but it's like,
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: who's betting them? Why can we? Why can this not
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: get the seven? Maybe that's what will happen this and
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: maybe that's more coming on, but right now it's six.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: Even if it was six and a half, I have
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: no interest back in this Jaguars team and Houston. You
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: just said it's it's too big of a number for
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: us to feel comfortable taking them at this number. So
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: this is the game I'll just pass on for now.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, total pass.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: It's astonishing to me in the same way that the
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Bears went out and kept the refluse and signed Shane
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Waldren and are essentially giving up on a year development
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: for Caleb Williams. How did the Jags end up going
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: all in with one hundred and fifty million for Trevor Lawrence? Like,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: were they not watching the same games we were? It's
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: always fascinating to me when coaches come in, they're like,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: we like what we saw on tape. We think this
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: is the right guy, and it's never translating to the field,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Like he has taken so many steps back with a
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: guy we all expected to help him take the ultimate
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: lea forward because of how good Doug Peterson had been
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: as an offensive coach, Like from your perspective, as a
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: guy who watched so much Doug Peterson, who's played pool
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: with Doug Peterson? True, is he doing something differently? Is
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: he calling the games differently? Is he coaching differently? Is
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: there is it just a general mismatch.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: I think, well, first of all, I'll say this for them,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: and I'll give them better that. Ready, they had the
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: number one pick. They took a guy who there's a
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: Camus prospect. Everyone told him that, and then you know,
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: three years later he won that division and in their
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: mind it was like, Okay, this guy is ascending, he's
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: getting better, right, and then last year he had that
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: injury and we kind of put all that blame on that.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: Midway through the year, he talked about they were the
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: number one seed at eight and three halfway through the year.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: Last year, and then it all went downhill. I get
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: why they paid him because in this league, it's just
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: like the same thing with Miami into it. It's like
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: you just saw what Miami looks like without Tua. That's
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: why you pay to it. It's like, not all of
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: us are going to get the mahomes of Josh Allens.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: A lot of us are going to deal with the
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: slop and the shit in the middle and just trying
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: to make the best out of it. And that's what
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: Trevor is apparently. Like I thought Trevor would have said
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: to be a top ten guy. I mean, me and
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: you talked about we felt a little guilty because we
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: didn't put on our top ten list. I don't feel
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: guilty at all. It's like I don't know if to
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: make this guy mix my top fifteen. He just, like
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: you said, he does not look right. So you know,
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: Doug Peterson, he might not survive this, but I don't
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: think he'll mind it either, Like he looks like he
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: doesn't have confidence in him either, especially with some of
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: the play calling they're doing, not just yesterday but in
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: Cleveland as well. So it's the vibes have to be
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: at the lowest of any team right now. For that
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville team.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson might be like, fuck this noise, I'm going
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: back to the shore, right you know.
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna go back to filling for free again for
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: the rest of my life.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I don't need this, just not worth it.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay, green Bay two and a half
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: point favorite. This was a game that we pegged on
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. Green Bay was at two. It's two and
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: a half now, it's heavily juiced to two and a half,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: so I would expect that that very soon it's moving
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: to three. I'm I'm split on this game. It feels
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: like the right time to fade both of these teams,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: you know, with like obviously, with the way Minnesota has
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: been playing and the way the Packers have been playing,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: the trends Tate, you kind of gotta favor the Vikings
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: here just as the home as the short dog. You
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: don't want to bet the short home favorite in a
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: division spot. Great coaching matchup, great coaching matchup. And know
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: how much you love Flora Is You know how much
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: I love the floor. What are we doing here?
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah? And I saw some great news this morning that
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: Sam Darnold says only as a bone bruise, So it
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: seems like his MRI came out all good, and it's like, okay,
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: now we can really talk and bet this game, because
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: me and you our first law was, well, we'll take
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: this number here just in case he's banged up and
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love's coming back. We have a great number here.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: And you know, just looking at the action app, it
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: says all the money right now is on Green Bay
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: and all the tickets are on the Vikings, So right
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: now this is a pros versus Joe's games. Probably clearly
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: loves the Vikings, and it's like, fuck, I kind of
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: like the Vikings too, man, It's like I like them
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: in the spot in the sense of, you know, if
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: this gets up to three, that was that would be
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: a nice spot to take this Minnesota team. And Chad
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: just gave us the stats about these divisional games, you
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: kind of want to favor the road dogs historically that's
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: the spit you want to be. But it's also you know,
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love coming back in not that he's gonna be rusty,
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: but it's like it's not gonna be the Jordan Love
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: we're used to, the one we saw against the Eagles,
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: which is he's very comfortable moving, running around the pocket,
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: getting outside the pocket. You have to have some type
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: of lingering issue with the knee, right, I mean, he's
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: it's supposed to be a four week injury. This is
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: week three. I get getting him back. I'd get him
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: back to for this important divisional game. But it's like
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: we're not gonna just sit here and act like it's
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: gonna be all good. And you know Brian Flores, we
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: talked about his exotic blitz packages. It's been incredible to watch,
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: Like every week a different guy is to start for
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: this Vikings defense, and I see no beting different here.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: It's like he knows that they're gonna be hampered, and
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: he knows that they're gonna want to run the ball
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: as well. So, like you said, this is a game
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: where maybe I'll just keep that two that you know,
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: minus two bed on Green Bank watch this one, but
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: keep by on it. If it does get up the
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: plus three three and a half, come back in and
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: take the Vikings because I do like that side, but
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: you nailed it. It's like I'm too split as well
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: in this one right now to really make a definitive
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: decision not really make a bet on this one right.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Now, Brian Flores has not just befuddled with the blitz
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: like he's made CJ. Stroud and brock Purty look very
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: confused with non blitz schemes and put them in really
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: bad spots throwing along.
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: So they do that crowd the line. Look right where
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: they have all seven guys up on the line, and
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: you said it only three guys.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Might rush right and then they drop back.
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: It's like, so, no, he's been really great with it.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: He has been brilliant. So there's all the stats about
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: the favorites in the division three points or less forty
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: five percent the past twenty years, forty one since twenty two.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Obviously that favors betting Minnesota. I feel like we want
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: to wait. Like, from a contest point of view, the
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: challenge is it's going to be a two and a
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: half in the contest, right, This isn't going to get
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: to three and a half in the contest, So.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: You might want to see ridin Love's officially clear this
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: could jump a point, all right. Green Bay is really good.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: I mean we already talked about how good they are,
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: Like we're more believers in them than we are the
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: Vikings going forward. So it's like, I get why it's
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, they just look like the more complete team,
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: and we you know, we're a little biased here, but
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: we obviously trust Jordan Love more than we do Sam Darnold.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Teams undefeated straight up and against the spread, forty three
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty seventeen and by the way,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: eleven and four against the spread in Week four.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Green Bay Packers fit that bill.
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: I like that.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: All right, here we go. I think I think this
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: is going to be a special one.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: Pit at Indy. It opened it one and.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: A half, it moved due to two, the juice is
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: favoring a moved back to one and a half.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: Simon, what say you?
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: Let's set up Chad. Simon says, grab the plus two people.
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: When Simon says do.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: It, we do, Sion say, Indie plus two.
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: You know what.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: I didn't even realize this was going to be it
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: until I saw it. I looked at it, I'm like, oh, yeah.
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you know. I love this one. I love this
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: matchup for this Colts team. And eventually there's gonna be
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: a point we had to start selling this Pittsburgh team
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: and you know, I still can't believe I haven't had
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: them in our contest and they're three and oh straight
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: up and against the spread. That's another thing we've just
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: whiffed on. And I try to get you there, and
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: I got your hesitation with the Chargers. I understood that, like,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: you know, that is a pretty good matchup. My viewful
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: was like, okay, but we're getting a really great defense
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: against the banged up Herbert And you know, for a
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: quarter there, I was like, shit, Chad was right like
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: that Chargers team they came out to play, and then
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: as the game went along, you just saw that's Pittsburgh team.
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: Once they get a lead on you, that's when they dominate.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: Like that's when this defense can get the pass rushers running.
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: And I just look at this Colts team that they
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: have the guys up front that are gonna give Pittsburgh
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: a problem this season. Right, they have the right offensive
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: line and Jonathan Taylor we saw last week a guy
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: kind of got to Schneid and looked great against the Bears.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see the dam exact game plan
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: against the Pittsburgh team. It's just like run it down
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: their throat, exhaust those guys don't let TJ. Watt ever
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: get going, and that's how you're gonna beat this team. So,
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: you know, we talked about selling high on teams, you
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: gotta sell in Pittsburgh. You're out of your mind if
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: you're betting Pittsburgh this week, a team that, like we
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: just said, they're three to zero against the spread. Not
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: only is it a great match for the Colts, but
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: this is just like last week right where you know,
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: there was a couple of sides we were just like,
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: you got to fade the public here and if you
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: had done, if you've done just been fading the public
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: blindly this year, you were up a ton of money.
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: This fall is right into that category of you know,
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: in the action app right now, ninety percent of the bets,
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: eighty five percent of the money is on Pittsburgh. And
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: it's just like, how stupid can you be? Like to
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: go heav you on a road road favorite here in
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Tomlin it's like this is always when they
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: have those letdown games. So I'm gonna take the plus two.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: Like you just said, it looks like it's gonna move
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: back down a one and a half. We talked at
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: the time. How key of a number of plus two is.
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna grab it now before it does move.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely grab the two. I grabbed it right before
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: we came on the air. Actually, And you talk about
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: fading the public. Last weekend, Broncos and the Bucks. The
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: Bucks had almost eighty percent of the tickets. Yeah, you know,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: the Rams and the Niners. The Niners had almost eighty
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. The I think it was the
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Panthers and the Raiders. Maybe maybe Evan can remind me
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: there was one other game where all the money was
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: coming in, all the tickets were coming in on one side,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: and look like we we won bets on all those
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: games and felt really good about it. I wish we
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: had put him in the contest. You said something that
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: was really interesting me just now on Sunday. You were
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: watching the Steelers' Chargers, and the Chargers were playing well,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: and it looked like it was going to you know,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: they were going to keep it closer, maybe even win.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: You're like, God, damn it, Chad was right. I like
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: the idea that you were thinking about me on Sunday afternoon.
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: Well, just because we didn't put in contest. Now, It
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: was just like, you know, he was right about Pittsburgh,
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: and maybe I am over hyper him too much, but no,
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: it came back around that defense man on Pittsburgh. Unbelievable.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: I just like the fact you were thinking about Manday.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: That's really all I was thinking about. This year, the
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: public is seventeen thirty and one against the spread, second
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: worst the past twenty years. And by the way, don't
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: forget last year the public actually won against the spread
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: for the first time in twenty years. So we are
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: seeing some serious regression. We talk about all this on
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: It's Me Sunday mornings eleven am, Eastern Action Network YouTube
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: and in the Action Network app. Okay New England at
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. This number is I think at ten right now.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: The big dogs have been eaten and they have been
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: barking this year. As I pointed out earlier, thanks to
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Evan twelve and one against the spread favorites underdogs of
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: six or more eight and five straight up, the Patriots
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: have been one of those teams that has been you know,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: covering or winning as huge dogs. Also a team that
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: didn't cover as a big dog ten and a half.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: Ten.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know, like, do we hold our nose and
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: bet this.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: I'm like you, I have no real read on it
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: because it's like I just want to bet knowing them
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: based off what's happened this season, all the injuries the
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers have had, Well we just talked about
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: perty was literally perfect in that Rams game. So it's like,
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: you know the way you attack that this this forty
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: nine ers team. Can we see this team do it
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: in the you know, New England and can they just
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: run it down their throats? I don't know. I know
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: that's what they want to do, but I feel like
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: that's what the fort Niners are gonna focus on taking
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: away and making them try to pass with Brissette. So,
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: you know, the fort Niners just have so many insane injuries.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: I think, who was it? I just saw the other
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: day it was a hard grave someone just got banged
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: up on their team that might be out for the season.
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: Who's like, you know, one of their studs in the
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: detackle position. So no, it's it's the what we expected
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: from the forty nine ers. I mean, we let the
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: cent be thrown off us after Week one. They were
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: so dominant that primetime game. But you just see it
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: the year after the Super Bowl, it just seems like
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: things just tend to go wrong and it's just not
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: the same as it was the year before. So there
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: are a team that's fighting through adversity right now, and
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: you know, like you just said, if you can get
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: the ten and a half, why not just grab it.
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: But it's just there's no real confidence here for me
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: on this team where it's like, I don't we thought
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: Newland was gonna be the worst team coming in this season.
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: You know, we talked about them in Tennessee and both
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: those two teams through three weeks, I would say the
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: pictures have shown me more. So I'm okay with ben it,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: but it's just like not that much confidence. I feel
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: like they've gotten lucky in the games they have covered,
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: so it's tough for me to really nail this one.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: Javon Hargrave, defensive tackle, tore his tricep he is out
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: for the season. And look, historically, while we want to say,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: like you always want to back these huge favorites, historically,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: thanks to Evan, we know that it doesn't exactly line
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: up that way. Like it's not an automatic. It's a
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: lot closer to fifty to fifty as a proposition on
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: a regular basis, So it doesn't make me feel like
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I need to run to the counter here.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: No, I mean it is our first double digit dog
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: and it's week four of the season, so it is tempting.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: But there's a reason they're a double digit dog.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, here's a really interest game that I had a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: stronger opinion on than I thought I would. Arizona is
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point home favorite against Washington.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: This line was five and a half before the game.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Last night's moved two points. I so want to take
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals.
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, me too.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Like we got a team that has
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: to go across the country on a short week.
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: And now after a huge win, after a.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Huge win like this feels like where they can take
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: advantage of a not very good defense that will be
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: very tired. I always like Look, I love Chris Long's
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: green Light podcast. It's amazing. People should listen to it
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: and watch it on YouTube. His insights on the NFL
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: because of his experience playing. It's always like a little
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: nugget and I always go back, especially like his shows
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: after the games on Sunday and Monday. I always go
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: back to this thing. And we talked about to Chris
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: about this.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Even the extra three or four hours.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Of rest that you need to recover matters on a
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Sunday night game, let alone a Monday night game when
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: you are then traveling back. I think it takes a
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: lot out of the players, and this isn't a very
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: good defense to begin with. I want the Cardinals and
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: I probably want the over. I don't know what the
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: number is, not sure I care. I like the Cardinals
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: can't play defense and Washington can't play defense, and they'll
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: be tired.
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: So it is fifteen and a half, which Chad knows.
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: My view when I see that five to zero, I
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: hit the under unders the last two years when it's
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: over fifty, I think they're up to what evan fourteen
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: and two now after last week, I hit that under
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: on the Arizona.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Arizona Detroit, And my view of it.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: Was, I thought de Troy's defense is better than people
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: gave them credit for. And I felt the same for
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: this Cardinals defense, where it's like, you know, Josh Allen
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: had to go into hero mode and just just steamrolled
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: them in that second half. They were just gassed, and
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: that's really when he dominated them. We've seen two weeks
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: in a row, right, they played really well against the
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: Rams and we were like, okay, maybe that's just because injuries.
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: Follow that up against that Detroit team, that bullshit call
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: by the refs blowing the whistle and saying it wasn't
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: a pick six. You know, they should have went into
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: half and it should either been you know, them up
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: fourteen to thirteen on the Detroit or whatever, thirteen ten
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: after they get a field goal when Detroit punted, it
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: was just the flip side. It was twenty to whatever.
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: That was twenty to seven at half, and in the
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: second half, Arizona really dug in and I feel like
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: Detroit really could not move the ball on them and
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: they kind of dictated that game. And it's just their
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: offense really couldn't get anything going. So it's like my
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: view of it right here is just I just like this.
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: I like this Cardinals defense, and to me, you know me,
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: and you have major questions about that Cincinnati's defense, I
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: don't have the same with this Cardinals team. I can
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: see them getting us stops where offensively, this is a
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: perfect matchup for Kyler against this Washington defense. I just
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: they have no guys up front they can keep up
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: with his speed, and the secondary they have no one
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: on the outside that can stop even their tight end.
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: I think we'll have a great game McBride. So it's
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: just like, you know, between Marvin McBride and the weapons
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: and James Connor, it's like, I just love everything about this.
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: So you can see me each other getting sucked in here.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: But for a good reason. We like this Arizona team
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: that bounce back after that lost to the lines.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Marvin McBride and Murray. That is the greatest law firm
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: playing in Glendale right now. Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: the line is eight. It went from seven to eight
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half, now back to eight.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know who's going to be playing quarterback for
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: the Chargers.
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: But we're betting them.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean hundred percent. I just want to make
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: sure we're on the same page. Then we don't have
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: to spend too much time on There's a backup quarterback
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: situation here that we know we like to play the
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback. We know we want a dog of six
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: or more. We know Kansas City's offense is not converting
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: in the red zone. Which makes it harder to cover
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: a big number. But like, the Chargers will make this
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: a slow, low scoring game. Give me the Chargers plus eight,
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Like almost feels like you got to grab that now
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: because I don't want it to go back down.
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: And four or five years ago, I would have been
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: fine with Penny this chief this Chiefs team. It's like, well,
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: they'll get big plays. They'll just outrun these guys and
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: score high. The new NFL or everyone just keeps everything
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: in front of you. It's just like all they got
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: to do is wake this out let Mahomes maybe make
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: one or two mistakes, which we've seen this year. He
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: just keeps consistently doing so it's like you just nailed it.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: Like this is the perfect hardball game. He's gonna muddy
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: the water and make this gross and ugly, pull them
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: down in the mud, and make this a one possession
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: kind of game. So it's like, all right, we all
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: agree Herbert is much better than Heinike, but in this
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: offense this year, when they've not been asking Herbert to
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: do a ton, I think Heiniger can fill in there.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: So you know, I make this seven and a half,
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: so we're not getting crazy value That's why I don't
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: know if this will end up being one of our five,
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: but I do really love the Chargers of the spot
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: divisional game at plus eight. You know, this is like
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: you just said, this is such a horrible spot in
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: game we take this number. So I'm gonna wait and
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: see what Evan has for trends for this one. But
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: historically we always like to fade the Chiefs in this spot,
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: especially you know when Mahomes is above a seven point favorite.
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a it's a number we like.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Every trend is back and yet including home division dog
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: in the first four games since twenty ten, sixty one
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread Cleveland at the Raiders.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: The line is flipped.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: It was Cleveland plus one or Cleveland minus one. Now
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: it's Las Vegas minus one. So that's one factor to
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: think about. We normally like to play against the team
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: that is now the favorite. Like it. There's is there
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: a QB controversy with the Raiders? You know Antonio Peers
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: would not commit to Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: As the starter.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: He basically called out DeVante Adams for making business decisions
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: in the blood against the Panthers The Browns O line
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: is even more hurt right now. They lost another guard
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: Wyatt Teller Jedrick Willis, who would come back from a
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: knee injury, left the game. Basically their entire O line
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: is a backup right now. Ann Miles Garrett basically saying
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: he's playing on bad feet. They need surgery, but he's
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: gonna gut it out for the season.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Can we just pass? You feel like you have a
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: huge opinion here.
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gotta be the Raiders, right, I mean, what
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: have you seen from Watson at all to give you
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: any type of confidence. So I understand why people are
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: coming on our side. They're just thinking, well, this Raiders team,
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: it's all bad. The vibes are bad. This team's not
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: that good. They have Minshew quarterback and they're just terrible.
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: They got embarrassed by the Panthers team. But I feel like,
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: Matt Wise, the Panthers were a bad matchup for that
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: Raiders team, or this is a really good matchup for
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: this Raiders team. Like this is where they're front Knreek
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: Havoc and we just saw Watson in every game they've
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: played this year. He can't stop holding onto the ball.
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: It's really a major issue where it's like he just
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: holds Onto as if he's got a clean pocket. When
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: the whole thing's crashing around him, he just not adjust.
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: So you know, they just made the Giants look like
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: world beaters. And you know we can both agree this
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: Raiders defense is a little bit better than that Giants defense.
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: And you know, the Giants gave him a free seven
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: points to start that game, and I think only put
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: up one more touchdown the rest of the game. This
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: Browns team like it's just win. Will Watson be bench?
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: That's the question because that to me, once he does,
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: I can't wait to come back and bet them right
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: when Winston is their quarterback wherever it's gonna be. Right now,
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: I just think it's so bad for them that, you know,
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: anything under three, I'm gonna take the Raiders here, But
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: I get your hesitation. It's like, I don't know if
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: I agree with Antonio Pierce's coaching style, but this this
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: seems like this is the way he's gonna do it,
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: where every week he's gonna question dude's manhood and if
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: they're about it after any time they lose. So you know,
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: of all the guys, I think it won't phase that much.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: I think Minshe's right up there. I don't think they're
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: really gonna go to eight and O'Connor. I think Minshew's
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: played well enough. He just had a bad game against Carolina,
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: so I'm not going to overreact. I'll take them here
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: against the Cleveland team that you just nail it chat.
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: They already lost. They just lost another starter from their
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: offensive line, so I think they're only down to one
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: starter from the original offensive line, and they already have
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: two third stringers in there. So it's disaster time right
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: now for Cleveland.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, here's the problem with Simon.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Forget about the trend, you know, the flipping of the favorite,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: which is sixty nine and ninety seven since twenty nineteen
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: on our list that I'm looking at right now.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: What do we got?
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: We got Tampa Bay plus two and a half, but
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: we still want more intel. We've got a favorite in
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: the Bears, a favorite in Atlanta. We're hoping it gets
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: to three with Minnesota. We have one dog in Indie,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: a favorite in Arizona, a big dog in the Chargers,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: a favorite in the Raiders. Like, what are we doing here?
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: Why aren't we betting just every underdog. Why don't we
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: get back to our roots.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, you just said a bunch of dogs. We
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: literally just talked about Chargers, Tampa Colts.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: Okay, those are the only.
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: Give you a bunch of different options, brother, All right, well,
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: we're going to get to it.
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: That's right, that's right.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: But also I want to remember, like we're getting some
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: good options here.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: I want to make sure we make.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: The right picks for our five because you know we'd
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: like to get back into this thing.
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: Me too. I mean, no, last week was brual. Like again,
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: my only two losses were two I put in the contest,
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: So it's like fucking a man. I just I hate
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: those type of weeks.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: It's the worst.
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: It's the worst.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at Baltimore. I mean, I feel bad for everybody
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: listening to the audio version because user Matt Mitchell is
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: going to go crazy with buffalo drops.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: Let's go Mat. Yeah, this might be to our podcast,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: who's got an hour and a half of just drops.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: That Mitchell is telling us to hurry up only because
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: he wants more room Buffalo bills drops.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, normally I would say you're wildly off base, and
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: that kind of behavior is incredibly indulgent and unprofessional, but
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: not today.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: Go Bills. From the opening drive, the Bills were unstoppable.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen now the odds on favorite to be the
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: m v P and he kind.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: Of a deserved well well deserved.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: Did you say, Josh Allen? That calls for the first
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen Alarm of the season. Alert here for Josh Allen. Look,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: he's a.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: Lun He's a football player through and through, but does
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: not and Therey go drums an excuse me touchdown?
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: there's no fears.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: No way.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: The demands to do something about this album rageous.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 5: Man, big louder and Louder.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: I don't have strong opinions about this game.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And all I could think of watching that game
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: with the Jaguars is it must be torturous to be
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: a Bills fan. I mean, is there a September? You
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: guys don't win, always so dominant September. Once it gets cold,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: that's when it starts getting bad. So Bill's fans enjoy this.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: This is your guys, super Bowl September. You guys are
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: always so good and the.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: Road to the Super Bowl goes through Orchard Park.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: New York. I don't know what to do. I want
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: to take the Bills. Like after watching that game, I
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: can't stand standing in front of him once again, Josh Allen,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: like he is just man, is he firing right now?
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: That offense? Like you know Joe Bray no joke. Yeah,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: it's like he just keeps you off bound. I just
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: love the way he's everything he's doing, the way he's
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: using cooks out the back. You know, these nameless receivers
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: are now it's starting to become named because we're like, Okay,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: this guy's scoring touchdowns every week. I can't believe it.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: I can't believe how good this Bills team is. Like
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: I thought. You know, we talked about it coming the season.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: You know, the over under was ten. I intererstad a
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: lot of people, a lot of professionals taking it under,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: and I said, I couldn't do it. I can't go
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: under on the ten. It's nowhere near one of my
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: bigger bets because it was just like I had no
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: real read on this team. Now looking at it, it's
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: just like you just can't doubt these great quarterbacks. And
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: we said it coming the year. It's like he's still
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: our number two quarterback, Josh Allen, even though he's playing
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: it as the best quarterback in the league. It's just like, man,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: it's hard to bet against. It's hard to doubt him.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: So I already bet the Ravens of minus two and
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: a half. I'll hold onto that ticket, but I don't
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: have confidence in it right now. It's just whatever, whatever
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: I want to say, good about this Lamar offense. Their defense, man,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: like your hesitation for last week. Now I want to
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: take them right yeah, this this Ravens team, because it's like,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: what is their identity on defense? I still don't know
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: what that is. I mean, Josh Allen, the way he's playing,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: he's gonna have a field day against this defense in Baltimore.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: So the better in me wants to just completely fade
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: this this Bills team. But I think we might have
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: to wait a couple weeks until Josh Allen cools down,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: because right now, he's by far the best player in football.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you saw it a million times last night.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: The second he drops back and sees a little bit
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: of an opening in the defensive line, he runs for
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: fifteen yards. And he could do that against the Ravens
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: the whole freaking game like that's they don't have enough
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: of an identity on defense right now to be able
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: to stop that.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: But I still like the Ravens in this game. I
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: like the spot.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: It's not a contest play for me. It's not going
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: to be a huge bet. It's a definitely a.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: Children taking another home favorite. Unbelievable.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: I know, right, I know, Tennessee at Miami, this thing's
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: freaking chaos. Like it opened at Miami two and a half.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: Now it's Miami plus one. More injuries to the offensive line.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: We don't know who the heck is going to be
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: playing quarterbacks. Skyler Thompson is kind of day to day
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: at this point. Tennessee we're knocking to back because we
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: can't entrust our money.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: Or our picks to Will Levis.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. It's not the game that we're going
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: to watch. There's two games Monday Night Football next week.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: This will be the game that does not get make
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: a split screen.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: I know it feels like we're supposed to take Tennessee
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: with Chads, right. I don't want I don't want to
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: bet this or have to watch this game. I'm looking
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: forward to betting this other game on watching it, So
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: let's just go the next game.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: Speaking of home favorites, I.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: Freaking love the Lions here, what do you really? Yeah?
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: I do.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: And it's actually before he even started doing the research
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: on it, it just felt like the right side, they're
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: the luck rankings favorite, they're the unlucky side in our
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: luck rankings matchup. Look at Seattle. Their defense is amazing
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: and like they're ranked number one in the league according
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: to a lot of different.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: Metrics from Pro Football Focus.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: But and the line has moved from five and a
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: half to four and a half to four. Like your
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: reaction to me is what the wise guys are doing,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: which is betting Seattle. Are they overvalued because they're undefeated?
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: They've played a rookie QB in Bonnicks, a washed QB
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: in Jacoby Brissett, a backup QB in Skyler Thompson, And
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: don't forget like the Broncos and the Patriots were very
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: competitive games, like is their defense good enough to make
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff continue to look bad? Like do we think
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: Detroit is just going to get physical? And as they
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: had started to do against the Cardinals, Like they beat
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: a tough team on the road as a favorite in
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: a spot they had to win. It feels like at
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: this point at four, I didn't feel this way at
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: five and a half. At four, the value was on Detroit.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: On the other side, unfortunately. Yeah. I like the Seahawks.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: I just you talked about the golf though, man, and
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, he played against Arizona, Tampa and the Rams.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: Against the Rams, he only completed eighteen passes and he
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: had a pick on a sacked twice. Against Tampa, he
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: did well, right, He threw for over three dred yards,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: zero touchdowns, two interceptions. He actually didn't get sacked. I
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: think it's Arizona, you know, he just once again he
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: didn't do much. He had two touchdowns, which is like, okay, great,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: and he had an interception in a sack where it's like,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: you know, with all the weapons they have, he should
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: be doing more. That's my fear of him right now.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: It's just like something seems off with him. Were on
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: the flip side, the Seahawks. You just said, they've played
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: three bad teams. Two of those bad teams they beat
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: up on a little bit, right, like the kind of
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: day what they were supposed to and the Patriots game
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: was much closer than they probably anticipated. So I'm right
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: there with you. It was like, there's hesitation for me
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: on Seattle, but I still have a lot of questions
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: about this Detroit team. You know, there's ways that they
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: can use. Seattle can use their offense to really attack
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: this Detroit team. Second, there we saw when they play
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: against teams that can move the ball, there are ways
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: to get around it. So you're asking why this numbers
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: come down. I think that's just the pros are kind
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: of the same view of me, where it's like I
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: make this three and a half, I'll take the four.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: Plenty of books have already moved to three and a
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: half on this number, So it's like, clearly professionalay is
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: gonna keep coming in here, but I'll grab the four now.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: But hope that layers will be goes along, that more
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: money will come on Detroit, because you're right, Detroit, they're
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: the better offense, they have the better coaching staff, they
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: have the better defense, Like they should roll this team.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not so confident in this in the
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: golf right now. It's just something seems a little off
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: about him. He doesn't seem like he was well last year,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: which was like he's playing at MVP level, or this
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: year he doesn't seem like he's in rhythm. Neither does
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: the Detroit All Funds.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: That's a fascinating game. I mean, we're gonna have to
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: ask ourselves, do we just fade the public this week?
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Do we just bet well.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: It's gonna go on the other way eventually. That's why
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: it's like, we we don't ever blindly just fade the
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: public here. As much as people are like, that's all
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: these guys do. They mean, chat would be fucking fifteen
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: to oh this year if we just blindly did that, which.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: Well we're fifteen.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but it's something we do take an account where
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: it's like, you know, it is a little scary when
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: you're on the public side, and that's why we always
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: want to mention that when we're talking about these lines.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: So I have no doubt that trouble will be the
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: public side in this right. They just covered last week,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: So it's like, yeah, people are gonna be feeling pretty
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: good about them. They feel like they're back where I'm
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: still a little hesitant about Golf. I just don't think
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: he's looked right this year.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: Do we fade the public?
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: Do we just bet the massive dogs of six or
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: more straight up and let it ride on a money
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: line parlay? Who knows, Simon, But all right, we've got
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: a list here some of the the early bests that
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: we've talked about. Tampa Bay plus two and a half, Chicago,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: if you can get the two and a half, Atlanta
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half, we're waiting on. We want
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: to get a little more intel on what the roster
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: is going to look like.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: Minnesota.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: If we can get it at three, we're waiting for
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: the contest. Maybe money will come in if we get
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: more about Jordan Love definitely, Simon says, Colts plus two,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Arizona minus three and a half, Chargers plus eight.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: We're going to bet that.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: The Raiders minus one. I hate it, and then Simon
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: and I are split on Seattle Detroit, but you could
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: like because of our because of the way things have
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: gone for us this year and betting so many home favorites,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: you could easily persuade me on Seattle. As a reminder,
• 1:09:54
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