Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Are Officially Out Of Ideas + How Industry Captures Government

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Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Are Officially Out Of Ideas + How Industry Captures Government · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
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  Speaker 1: you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare
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  Speaker 1: skeptical of that, as you should be. I get it.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a federal lawsuit going on right now
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  Speaker 1: to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it.
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  Speaker 1: I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole
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  Speaker 1: reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent
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  Speaker 1: I think there's all sorts of space. You see a
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  Speaker 1: lot of people are throwing themselves in this healthcare space.
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  Speaker 1: and less confusing. OK, so look, take the skepticism you
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• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Hello there and welcome to the Thursday episode of the
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Chuck Todd cast. And you know what that means? If
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: we are in college football means I will begin and
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: end with some references to the big college football weekend.
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  Speaker 1: I am. You can see this is the big game
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  Speaker 1: this weekend is LSU at Ole Miss. The return of
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  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin. I'm not going to say that I have
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  Speaker 1: a shirt for every game I'm going to talk about
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  Speaker 1: throughout this season, but I do try to acquire a shirt.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Think of me as like the old Ted Knight character
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: in Too Close for Comfort. I will always just try
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  Speaker 1: to find if I do an event at a university,
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  Speaker 1: I end up with either a nice polo or a
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  Speaker 1: shirt of some sort that I will try to continue
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  Speaker 1: to make part of the recurring agenda. official uniform of
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  Speaker 1: the Chuck Todd cast. So this week, being Lane Kiffin
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  Speaker 1: returns to Oxford, Mississippi, I thought it was time to
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  Speaker 1: get the hot. You know, when I first learned, you
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: just say hotty toddy, and I used to think, oh,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: does the drink come with it? Then you realize they
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: don't really care about the drink part of this. They
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: care about a lot of drinking in Oxford. But the
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  Speaker 1: actual drink that is the hotty toddy, I think they
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  Speaker 1: care less about. But I think we're all rooting for
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss this week, this weekend, right? Who's rooting for
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  Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin and LSU other than most of Lane Kiffin's family?
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to say both. I'm going to guess some
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: of Lane Kiffin's family roots against him, right? I'm just kidding, Lane,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: sort of. And the LSU diehards. Other than that, right,
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  Speaker 1: the rest of the world is rooting for for the
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  Speaker 1: abandoned football team known as the Ole Miss, known as
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  Speaker 1: the University of Mississippi, right? So anyway, it is obviously
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Miami has a Friday night game. Always get nervous about
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  Speaker 1: Friday night games, but I'll have a lot to say
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  Speaker 1: about the weekend in college football later in this episode.
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  Speaker 1: I do want to give you a quick rundown of
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  Speaker 1: what we're going to talk. Look, let's just say, you know,
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  Speaker 1: there are two ways to find out how things are
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  Speaker 1: going in politics. One is polls. The other is just behavior.
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  Speaker 1: And House Republicans are losing their you-know-what. They're fighting with
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  Speaker 1: each other. They don't know what to do. They just
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  Speaker 1: are running out of town, scared, tail between their legs,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: because none of them are on the same page. They
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  Speaker 1: couldn't even get a gas tax holiday together. It is
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  Speaker 1: lord of the flies in the House Republican conference right now.
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  Speaker 1: I guess we could call this the last days of
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  Speaker 1: Mike Johnson's leadership, because regardless of whether it's highly unlikely,
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  Speaker 1: Republicans keep their majority. And if they don't keep their majority,
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  Speaker 1: I think it's highly unlikely Mike Johnson is the House
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  Speaker 1: Republican leader come 2027. And it does seem as if
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  Speaker 1: it's all coming apart. So we'll do that. We'll also
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  Speaker 1: spend a little bit of time taking your questions, of course.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: And like I said, I will do my deeper, more
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: and always the exclusive questions. home of Chuck Todd's preview
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: of the college football weekend. Where else are you going
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: to get this other than the Chuck Todd cast, right?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Before we get back into it, I want to give
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: you a quick word on something I'm involved in, and
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty excited about it. On October 22nd and 23rd,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be hosting NextPredict in New York City.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: It's the world's largest prediction markets conference. Two days, two
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: weeks out from the midterms, with the exchanges, the traders,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: and the regulators all in one room. So if you
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: want to try to understand what is this industry, where
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: is it headed, what does it mean? Well, Nextpredict, this
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: is going to be the place to be. So like
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I said, I'm going to be hosting quite a few panels.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I'm involved with this project. Registration is at nextpredict.io. That's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: N-E-X-T-P-R-E-D-I-C-T dot I-O, nextpredict.io. If you want to try to understand...
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the prediction markets, not as something to participate in, but
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: more as what is this industry? Where is it headed?
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  Speaker 1: What is it about? How will it be regulated? All
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: of those things. That's what this conference is about. So
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  Speaker 1: take a look. But I'm going to begin with what
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  Speaker 1: has been just a continuation of sort of the Saying
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  Speaker 1: that I've used before, you've heard me say it, it's
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: an old Haley barbarism. And I know he didn't invent
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  Speaker 1: this line, but he popularized it for me. Good gets better,
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  Speaker 1: bad gets worse. And if things are bad right now
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  Speaker 1: for Republicans, I think this is the week we're saying
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  Speaker 1: bad gets worse, right? And you have, first of all,
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  Speaker 1: an interest rate hike, which leads to a massive sell-off
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: in the stock market, which is only why do we
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: have this interest rate hike? Well, we have this interest
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: rate hike because inflation right now needs to be tamed.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: And why does inflation need to be tamed? Because of
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  Speaker 1: all the policies of Donald Trump right now. And so
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the economic five alarm fire, the political five alarm fire
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  Speaker 1: that this current economic situation is causing is really, you
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  Speaker 1: can now start to see it is eating away at
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  Speaker 1: At the confidence that Republicans may have had going into
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  Speaker 1: the fall because it's not there at all. I mean,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: you can hear it in the tone of voice J.D.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Vance used earlier this week when it comes across almost
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: as like, look, we know we've screwed up these first
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  Speaker 1: two years. But give us I'm going to read the
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: direct quote. Give us another chance. Give us another couple
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  Speaker 1: of years to continue to work on the amazing things
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  Speaker 1: that we've been doing for the past two years. Even
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: if you don't agree with us on every issue, the
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  Speaker 1: other party is consumed by craziness. Look, I talked about
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  Speaker 1: this a little bit yesterday. That was, you know, we J.D. Vance's.
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  Speaker 1: I give him credit. He's trying to live in reality. Right.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump does not live in reality. Donald Trump still
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: wants to make you believe this economy is great. the
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: golden age is here because for Donald Trump, he's never
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: been wealthier, right? Donald Trump, greatest years of wealth accumulation
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: has happened because of the presidency, right? He has used
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the presidency to finally become a billionaire. Before, he never
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: could become a billionaire before the presidency, but he has
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: used the presidency as one of the greatest grifts, frankly,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: in American history and how he's pulled it off. So
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's economy is doing fabulous, although he has a
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: huge setback with the fact that they cannot that the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: crypto industry hasn't been able to totally capture the United
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: States Senate. I'm going to get into that a little
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  Speaker 1: bit later in this podcast as well, because I do
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: think crypto created a blueprint or at least showed you
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: how corporate capture happens on Capitol Hill. And I think
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: it's an important story for you to know some of
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  Speaker 1: the details of. But it does look like it might
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  Speaker 1: have hit a brick wall. But I do think the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: delusion of Trump, right? He cannot seem, you know, he
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: keeps trying to say, no, you know, this is not,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: you know, the Iran war is going wonderfully. We're doing great.
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  Speaker 1: Pay no attention to the facts that you keep seeing.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, we now have troops having to anonymously send
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  Speaker 1: photos of the damaged bases in the Middle East to CBS.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: And they've had to do so anonymously and be very
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: careful because this Pentagon is hiding everything, right? I mean,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: you know, Thomas Massey may have introduced articles of impeachment
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: on Pete Hegseth as much as a troll, and certainly
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: he's upset about Israel, upset about a lot of things.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: But the fact of the matter is, Pete Hegseth has
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  Speaker 1: been a disaster at this Pentagon. And by the way,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the House is avoiding that vote because, you know, when
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  Speaker 1: you introduce the articles the way he introduced them, there
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  Speaker 1: has to be a vote. the next time they convene.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: And by quickly adjourning, the House essentially has avoided now
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: having to vote on the Hegseth articles of impeachment until
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: after the election. And I have to say, if I'm
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth, that makes me really nervous. I actually would
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  Speaker 1: have wanted this vote right now because Republicans would have
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  Speaker 1: basically done the party line. If it's a Democratic shellacking,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: there may be some Republicans who have nothing to lose,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: who may never have liked Hank Seth in the first place.
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  Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, this could get some bipartisan momentum.
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  Speaker 1: This is one of those, huh, the unintended consequence may
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  Speaker 1: make this matter more down the road. Look, who knows? Obviously,
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  Speaker 1: some of this stuff is just political gamesmanship. Don't get
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: me wrong. But it... It wasn't a slam dunk that
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the articles of impeachment vote would have gone the way
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Hegseth would have wanted now, but it is much more
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: precarious for him to hold this vote on those articles
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: of impeachment after the election, especially if the result, especially
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  Speaker 1: if Republicans decide that one of the reasons they lost
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: was the public didn't like this war with Iran. They
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: didn't like all the economic fallout with the war with Iran.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: And in fact, if you want, you know, one of
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the points I've been driving home to you guys over
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the last few months is I've said geographically, the state
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that I think is the one that will tell us
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: if this is a blue wave or not is the
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  Speaker 1: state of Iowa. And I have maintained that for a
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: few reasons. But one is because, you know, for a
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: state with just four congressional seats, three of the four
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  Speaker 1: are swing districts. Three of the four are in play.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: The Senate seat's in play. The governor's seat's in play.
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  Speaker 1: So you have, this is as good of a test
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  Speaker 1: on Republican leadership on both the state and federal level
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  Speaker 1: in the state of Iowa. Well, there are, of the
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  Speaker 1: four members of Congress, that represent Iowa. Two are seeking re-election.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: And two were seeking statewide office. One of them lost
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: a primary, Randy Feenstra. The other one, Ashley Hinson, is
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the Republican nominee for Senate. The other two, Marianne Miller-Meeks,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: who has won by the skin of her teeth in previous,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: her district is so swinging. I think one time she
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: won by the landslide of six votes after multiple recounts.
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  Speaker 1: And then Zach Nunn, who was the Des Moines seat.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: These two Republicans, Marianne Miller-Meeks has been on my podcast
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: in the past. She's a Republican that believes in climate change,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: and it was a conversation that we had a couple
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: of years ago on that. But for the most part,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I would call her a traditional Republican. And Zach Nunn
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: is somebody who is sort of a Bob Dole Republican.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: When I say Bob Dole Republican, I mean somebody that
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: is going to support the party, whether it's whether it's
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: helmed by Mitt Romney or it's helmed by Donald Trump.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: He's a card-carrying member of the Republican Party, and he's
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: going to be a good party soldier. In fact, he
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: wanted to run for governor. He wanted to run for Senate.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: And Trump twisted his arm and said, no, don't abandon
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: that seat. That's a tough seat to hold as an
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: open seat. It'll be a little bit easier to hold
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: if you run as an incumbent. So he's in a
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: tough fight. Well, when they held the Iran War Powers
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Resolution vote earlier this week. The number of Republicans joining Democrats,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: it passed again. Essentially, it is symbolic, but it is
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: an important symbol. Three more Republicans. So we have now
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: seven Republicans that are voting with the Democrats essentially to
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: say that the president needs to come to Congress to
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: get permission to continue this war. It's a basic message
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that's being sent here, right? Two of those three new Republicans,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Marianne Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn out of Iowa. What do
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: you think they're seeing in their polling? I've been stressing that,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: in particular, the part of the country paying the steepest
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: price for this war of choice of President Trump's are
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: the Midwestern ag states, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota. in particular, right?
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: The price of diesel hits anybody in the ag sector.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: The price of diesel hits anybody in the trucking sector.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: These are states that have quite a few people who
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: work in trucking, who work in the ag business, who
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: are seeing the direct impact on their bottom lines by
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: this essentially energy crisis that has been caused by President
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Trump's decision to launch this war with Iran. And the
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: fact that you have two, these are, again, Zach Nunn
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and Marianne Miller-Meeks, these are not people that regularly break
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: from their party. And they broke on this. And it is, again,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: they're in nail-biter races. They are, I, in fact, this
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: vote tells me they're even more vulnerable than I thought
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: they were. The fact that they wanted to be seen
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: as finding a way to be against Trump on something.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: And they thought the Iran war was the safest place
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: to be. Well, we've seen the polling on this, right?
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: It's not even close. This isn't a majority of the
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: country's against it, but Republicans are more supportive. No. Majorities
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: on both parties believe this was a bad decision. Yeah,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: there are a few more Republicans supportive of the president's
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: decision than not. But we know this thing is not
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: popular in swing congressional districts. So it is... It is, again,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: it's a tea leaf. And as I said, there are
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: certain tea leaves worth reading. This one is worth reading.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: It wasn't just any two new members of Congress. It
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: is two in, you know, if the Democrats are winning
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: 15 to 25 seats, these two in Iowa are sort
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: of what I would say is numbers 14, 15, you know,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: in that range. These aren't the first seats that flip,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: but these are the seats that give you the governing majority.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: And these are the seats, frankly, that win the, you know,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: it's funny, especially that Des Moines seat, right? When the
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Democrats are in the majority, they usually have at least two,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: if not three, congressional seats in Iowa. And when the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Republicans are in the majority, they usually have at least
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: two of the three swings, if not all three. In
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: this case, they have all three at the moment. And
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: I think that this is why it's as good of
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: a barometer as any. And the fact that you got
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: that vote, I think, tells you everything. This episode of
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  Speaker 1: me lately. If the Democrats hand Donald Trump a wish
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: list of things they would like him to do, in
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the final 50 days of the campaign, because if they did,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: he seems to be checking off each one of them, right?
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: What would you want Donald Trump to do? Well, you
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: would want to, hey, approve a big arms sale to
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Israel less than 50 days before the election. Because Democrats
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: know that supporting Israel militarily is most unpopular with their
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: youngest voters. The youngest voters are the ones that are
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: the least likely to turn out in a midterm. So
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: you need the president to do something that gets their attention,
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: that might make them upset enough that they realize, oh,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: they need to come out and vote. And what does
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump do? Signs off on a new big arms
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: sale to Israel. And right when younger voters are just
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: now starting, just frankly, anybody under 45 has got a
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: lot of other stuff going on in their lives. And
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: so you don't start paying attention until right about now.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: And it's almost as if he waited till more people
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: are paying attention to do this. Nevermind that he's more
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: focused on trying to force his name on somebody else's
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: tombstone on the JFK and the Kennedy Center, trying to
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: force his name on a memorial. He's trying to deal
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: with the arch. I'm going to have a little bit
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: more on that as well. He couldn't be focused, right?
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: If the trap that Republicans are in is that they
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: need Trump's base supporters to show up to give them
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: a chance. but they can't alienate these swing voters. And
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Trump is doing all these things that alienate swing voters,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: yet they can't fully distance themselves because they can't afford
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: to alienate his most devoted supporters, except he's not doing
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: anything to get those folks out. Well, I wanted to
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: paint that picture a little bit because I think it
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: underscores an incredible story I read from the newly named
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: A Washington news organization, the Washington Sun, formerly known as Notice,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: they had an incredible tick tock of a fight that
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: happened inside the House Republican conference earlier this week. And
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: so I want to want to share a little bit
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: about it because there's clearly I don't there's something happening
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: with House Republicans right now that, like I said, this
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: isn't just typical congressional dysfunction. This is how you know
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: it's the beginning of the end, right? This is the
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: moment you want to say people are jumping ship. We
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: are at the jumping ship stage. Everything is fraying. And look,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: you could see it in the way the House got
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: out of town, right? Rather than deal with this Hegseth impeachment.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: But I got to share this reporting, extraordinary reporting from
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Reese Gorman at the Washington Sun. Reese has been on
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: this podcast. What happened behind closed doors on Tuesday night?
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: So Mike Johnson calls a 9-15 meeting in his office
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night. Leadership is there. And the heads of the
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: five Republican ideological caucuses, these are the so-called five families, right?
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: It's your Freedom Caucus. It's the Tuesday group. It's the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: You know, literally, it's the far right members. It's the
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: super moderates. But it's all the different. There's five of
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: these ideological caucuses. And of course, because everybody loves a
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: good mob reference, if you can use it, they call
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it the five families. It's funny. I had an old
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: colleague at NBC used to refer to the network pool
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: as the five families because it was NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: and Fox. And it was the meeting of the five families.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Everybody loves a good mob. mob connection, if you can
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: make one, right? So it's the so-called five families plus
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: committee chairs as well, okay? So you can imagine this meeting.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: It's about 20 people, right? The biggest leaders in the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: House Republican Conference, most of whom are, in theory, not
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: facing tough re-elections, but realize they're all about to lose
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: their roles as majority anything, whether they're committee chairs, leadership,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: you name it, right? And what's the issue that sets
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: everybody off? A gas tax holiday. So Andy Harris, he's chairman.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: He's a Maryland Republican chairman of the Freedom Caucus. He
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: wants the federal gas tax suspended through the election. Harris
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: had used his vote on a procedural measure earlier in
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: the day to extract a promise from leadership that they
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: would at least discuss bringing up the idea of a
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: gas tax holiday. given what we've seen with gas prices, right?
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: The Iran war is causing this massive disruption in the
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: energy markets that is only now, like, if apparent, we
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: are going to start to see, because the price increases
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: we saw this week was before we got the full
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: shutdown of Saudi Arabia, right? We're going to start to
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: see increases at regular gas stations start to go up. fast.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: So a bunch of lawmakers are panicked. Andy Harris is
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: one of them. Gas tax holiday, maybe it's 19 cents off.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think anybody's going to notice, but they needed
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: a headline and they were desperate. So Andy Harris loves
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: his own idea about the gas tax and he says
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: they're going to bring this up. Except Sam Graves of
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Missouri who chairs the Transportation Committee, shows up to the
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: meeting with a receipt, an actual printed receipt. It was
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: an old Andy Harris social media post from 2022 when
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden was president. And Biden was talking about suspending
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: the gas tax because he wanted to lower prices going
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: into the midterm elections of 2022. At the time, Andy
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Harris called Biden's idea, quote, just another Biden administration stunt.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: So Graves decides to remind Andy Harris of this old post.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: And he says, wait a minute. Four years ago, when
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: a Democratic president wanted to do this, you called it
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: a stunt. Now, weeks before an election, you want us
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: to do the same thing? And apparently it set everybody off.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: According to the Washington Sun, Harris starts banging on the desk.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: This is fucking war. This is war. And he gets
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: up to leave. Andy Harris is not known as a
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: guy that plays well with others. Ask anybody in the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Maryland delegation. He's sort of he is he is he
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: is on an island. It seems like at times in
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: the Maryland delegation and he's on an island in the
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: Republican conference at times. So he gets up to leave.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: The speaker tries to stop him and tells everybody to
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: stay and talk it out again. This is all according
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: to Reese Gorman. And I'm telling you, Reese Gorman is
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: somebody who I think I think there are recordings or
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: something in that speaker's office. It's fantastic. Right. Then Clay
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Higgins of Louisiana jumps in and starts berating Graves and
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: calls him a disrespectful fool. So Higgins and Harris both
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: walk out of the meeting. One of the people described
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: it as one of the craziest meetings they'd ever been
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: a part of, according to Reese Gorman. And here's what
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: makes this more than just another funny Capitol Hill anecdote.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Look at what they were fighting about, right? It's not
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: some grand ideological dispute. It's about whether Republicans should do
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: something that some of these same Republicans attacked as a
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: cynical political stunt when Democrats proposed it four years ago.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: And they're not merely disagreeing about it. They're banging tables
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: and screaming, this is fucking war. Boy, how bad is it?
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you're shooting at each other, you know
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: the whole thing's coming apart, right? Anyway, this happens Tuesday night.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: You got the Massey. This meeting happens. Massey already, without
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: warning House Republicans, the leadership that he was going to
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: do this, uses his privilege to introduce these articles of
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: impeachment on the floor, which then have to be voted on.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: So with all this chaos, Johnson then sends everybody home
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: until after the midterms. The Sun notes this isn't an
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: isolated event. That Johnson snapped, I'm sick of this shit,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: when Anna Paulina Luna was trying to push him on
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: something in July. Other Republicans have publicly complained that leadership
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: keeps giving in to demands from the right. And votes
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: have repeatedly been canceled amid internal fighting. This has been
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: a regular, I mean, in some ways, if you follow
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: this stuff closely, it's just another day that ends in
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Y when it comes to Congress trying to be in session.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: But you put that next to the Hegseth situation and
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: you put it next to the House getting out of
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: town and you realize, right, there are two ways to
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: measure how panicked are Republicans. First of all, the fact
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: that they were like, They've run out of ideas, right?
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump last week is, I'll just send you $ 5, 000, please, right?
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Just straight up. They don't have any new ideas. You've
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: got J.D. Vance going, please just give us another chance. Like,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: we know we kind of screwed up, right? He doesn't
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: say the screwed up part, but it's kind of implied.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: When you're asking for another chance, it doesn't mean it
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: worked out well the first time when you actually use
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: that phrase. So he uses that phrase. They're trying to
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: use ideas that they mocked Joe Biden for trying in 2022.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: They're out of gas, guys, literally and figuratively here. They're
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: out of ideas. They realize that this is only going
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: to get worse. And then to put it all, right,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: to sort of the icing on the cake, I quoted
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: one Washington-based story. There's another local story that only reinforces
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: just what a shit show this has turned into in
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Trump's Republican Party, right? Because this may capture may capture
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: the moment that we're in right now as well as anybody.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: The Washington Post obtained some National Park Service documents about
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's proposed 250-foot triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: It's on the other side of Memorial Bridge on the
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Virginia side. And the Park Service's conclusion is remarkable. The
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Arch will adversely affect, this is according to the Park Service.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: This is not according to the Washington Post. According to
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: the Park Service, Washington Post obtained these documents. The Arch
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: will adversely affect the Arlington National Cemetery, the Lincoln Memorial,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: and dozens of other historic sites. These were their words.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: The adverse effects, quote, cannot be fully avoided. So what
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: do you do when the federal agency responsible for protecting
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: these places, concludes that your project will unavoidably damage the
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: historic setting for these places, apparently you're going to build
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: it anyway. Because the Park Service says moving it somewhere
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: else doesn't work because the location at Memorial Circle is, quote, again,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: their language, central to the undertaking. Well, who says it's
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: central to the undertaking? I guess it's one person, right?
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. He believes if he can't shove himself in
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: front of our National Cemetery in in between our national
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: cemetery and the man who saved this nation, Abraham Lincoln.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, just this guy's got the worst case of
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: poser complex ever, doesn't he? So we're having to build
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: a grand arch in this particular place because this particular
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: place is essential to this giant arch. And when the
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: preservationists say, but you're going to damage the historic landscape,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: The proposed mitigation ideas from the Park Service include, and
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: I kid you not, signs and webpages explaining the arch.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Explaining the arch. The arch is some egomaniacs, wannabe historic
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: figures attempt to make himself seem more important than he
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: actually was. Meanwhile, the National Park Service's own public documents
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: say that that specific section 106 that historic preservation process
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: still isn't complete, and that its environmental finding is not
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: final approval for the project. So I put these two
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: stories together because one branch of government has a Republican
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: majority so internally exhausted that its members are screaming at
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: each other over a pre-election gas tax holiday that, frankly...
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: They probably should have tried to do because they could
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: at least say they were trying to do something. It's
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: slightly better than Trump's, let me just bribe you. Let
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: me just promise you, you know, I'll promise you a
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: quarter tomorrow if you give me that hamburger today. And
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: at the same time, right, so you get the House
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: is a mess. House Republicans are infighting. Same time the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: executive branch is moving ahead with the 250-foot presidential triumphal arch,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: even as its own Park Service acknowledges unavoidable adverse effects.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: on some of the most historically sensitive ground in America.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: And of course, Congress is just going home. You know,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: you might expect Congress to care about this, but they've
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: done nothing about this, which may inevitably be why people
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: who may think the Democrats have gone too far to
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the left, you know, and that the most important, I
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: think the most important question in that New York Times
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: poll was when asked about what's more important, making sure
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: that this Congress supports Trump's policies or provides a check.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: And provide a check was nearly, you had more than
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: half the country wanting to see a check provided. And
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: it is stories like this that only motivate more independent voters,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: more to say, you know what, we need to check
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: on this. And this is why midterms, it's why it's
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: so hard in a midterm for the party in power
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: to somehow make it a referendum on the other party. Look,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I get it, right? They're trying to turn every Senate
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: candidate into Abdul El-Sayed and AOC. And I think they
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: think that maybe that doesn't necessarily swing independent voters. I
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: think they think that will somehow motivate base voters, and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: it might. I don't know on that. And it's a
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: wait and see. But it's the only message they got.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: And they couldn't even You know, here's the thing. They've
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: thrown a few ideas out there. Gas tax holiday, $ 5, 000
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: just sort of bribe, dividend bribe. But the gang that
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: can't shoot straight, the House Republican Conference, can't even convene
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: itself to have a vote on any of these things.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Because in the words of Andy Harris, apparently this is
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: fucking war. All right, I want to close before I
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: get to this deep dive on Texas. And again, I
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: think it is... In some ways, I would call it
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: almost a viewer's guide to understanding what's going on in Texas.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: If you don't live in Texas, but you're obsessed with
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: what's happening in Texas right now, this is the interview
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: for you. But before we get there, I want to
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: talk about how an industry captures a government. Most people
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: picture capture as bribery, and I frankly think you should.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: A bag of cash, a vote in return. But it's
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: not actually how it works, and it hasn't been for
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: a long time. The modern version of capturing Congress is quieter, cheaper,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: and for the most part, Legal. To give you a
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: little history here, George Stigler, a Chicago economist, laid this
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: out in 1971, believe it or not. And his argument
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: was that regulation, government regulation, is usually acquired by the
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: industry being regulated and designed mostly for its benefit. Mankur
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Olson would explain later why that's possible. A small group
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: with a lot at stake will always out-organize a large
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: group with little at stake. The industry cares about its
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: bill every single day. The public mostly doesn't know the
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: bill exists. So hold that framework up against a recent
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: report out of Politico that documented crypto and AI. And
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: you can watch the capture being assembled in real time.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: And this is really, in some ways, crypto has been
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: has been on the leading edge of this. And the
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: AI space is essentially watching where crypto has succeeded and
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: emulating them and watching where crypto has failed and trying
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: to avoid those failures. So what was step one? This
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: was clever, capture the nominating process, not the Congress. So
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: what the reporters at Politico found was that AI and
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: the crypto super PAC spent about $ 127 million across more
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: than 100 congressional primaries this year. And they won about 90%
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: of them. We've told you forever, the number of actual
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: competitive districts, you know, the outer edge of competitive this
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: year might be 40 districts. Maybe you can get it
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: to 50. And what do I mean by competitive? Anything
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: in the single digits, right? So 54, 46, you know,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: anything under 55 for the leading vote getter. which means
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: there's a good 80 to 90% of the house where
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the primary is the election. Well, people who spend money
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: trying to capture, trying to create regulatory capture are very
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: aware of this, which is why the crypto industry focused
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: so much money and attention on primaries, primaries that many
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: of us didn't actually pay a lot of attention to
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: unless they involved an incumbent and it was an interesting
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: ideological split, right? So by the count of Politico noted,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: at least one in six members of the next Congress
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: will arrive with the backing from crypto. So crypto already
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: has its claws into one in six new members, the
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: new members coming in because of the amount of investment
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: they made in these primaries. And that's the key word here, primaries.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: That's where the capture is the cheapest. Turnout is tiny.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: The voters have less information and the ads are cheaper. Right?
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Primaries are affordable for outside groups compared to the general elections,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: which become way more expensive. So an industry doesn't need
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: to beat an entire political party. It needs to shape
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: who the party nominates. You do that and the general
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: election is somebody else's problem. Capture happens before the oath
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: of office. Now, I do want to make a fair
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: concession here. Some of these wins were uncontested. Some were
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: safe bets that the PACs picked to pad their scorecard.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: But also... to buy off people they thought were buy-offable.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: But the scorecard isn't really the point, which brings us
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: to the next step, step two, build a storefront in
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: both parties. So every major network here runs one brand
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: for Democratic primaries and another for Republican ones, right? Fair
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Shake has Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs. Leading the Future,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the AI group, has Think Big and American Mission. Public
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: First has Jobs and Democracy PAC, Defending Our Values PAC, right?
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: One for the R side, one for the D side.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: They have the same goal. That's the tell of a
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: capture operation as opposed to an ideological movement. An ideological
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: movement picks a side. A capture operation makes sure it
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter which side wins. You know, they don't care
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: which party's in control of Congress as long as they
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: have allies in both parties. Politico's description is this. These
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: groups haven't sorted along partisan lines, and they back whoever
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: lines up with their legislative interests in both parties. The
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: issue is the only party they belong to. So what's
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: step three? You don't have to win everywhere. You have
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: to make an example. So capture runs on deterrence. In 2024,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Fairshakes Network spent roughly $ 40 million in Ohio against Sherrod Brown,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, the committee that
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: writes the crypto law. Brown lost. Every member of Congress
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: who survived noticed. This year, Fairshake and its affiliates went
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: into the fall with nearly $ 123 million in the bank.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe that money doesn't have to be spent to work.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: It works by existing. A member doing the math in
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: a marginal seat doesn't need a phone call. They know
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: the number, they know what happened to Brown, and they
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: decide this isn't the hill to die on. It's a
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: mighty nice congressional office you have there. Be a shame
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: if you voted the wrong way on crypto and you
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: lost it, right? That's the part of capture no FEC
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: filing can show you. The fights that never happen. Step four,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: move the people along with the money. So Josh Vlasto
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: worked for Fairshake last cycle. Now he helps run leading
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: the future, the AI network. Same playbook, same operatives, new industry.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Capture is a skill set and it travels. What crypto
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: built over two cycles, AI inherited in one. Step five,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: you get to pick the referee. So this is where
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the policy lives. The Crypto Market Structure Bill, the Clarity Act,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: would hand the CFTC, the Commodities and Futures Trade Commission,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: primary authority over digital assets. CFTC is a smaller agency
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: with a much lighter touch than the SEC, the Securities
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: and Exchange Commission, which the industry has been fighting for years.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Crypto does not want to be regulated the way stocks
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: are regulated. Capture at its most refined isn't about getting
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: a law passed. It's literally about choosing who enforces it.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, step six is stay invisible. Capture
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: depends on low salience, right? The worst thing that happened
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: to AIPAC is everybody knows who AIPAC is now, right?
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I say the words fair shake to people. Nobody knows
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: who they are, right? I'll give you an example, right?
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: This low salience. Roger Marshall of Kansas captured this perfectly
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: before the vote. He said this on the crypto bill.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Nobody back home, he said, is asking about the crypto bill.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: It's not a sign that the industry is weak. It's
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: the ideal condition for the industry. When voters aren't watching,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the only people keeping score are the ones with the checkbooks.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: So that's the model. You shape the primaries. You stay bipartisan.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: You deter by example. You find somebody. You move the
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: talent around. You pick the referee and you keep it boring.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: And the crypto industry almost ran it perfectly. And I
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: say almost, because earlier this week, on Tuesday, they hit
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: a wall. It failed. The Clarity Act needed 60 votes
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: to get through a procedural vote, and they lost 49
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: to 50. They couldn't even, in theory, couldn't even get
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: 50 votes. With Democrats citing an ethics provision around Trump's
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: crypto business interests. That was something that Democratic supporters of
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: this bill were demanding. Republicans understood why they demanded it.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: And guess who was never going to agree to something
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: like that? So they tried. They added some ethics language,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: but they couldn't add what Democrats wanted because dear leader
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: didn't like it. So what broke? Why didn't this work
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: for crypto? Well, there are two things and both are
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: lessons about the limits of capture. Careful and getting too greedy.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: The first limit Capture only works while it's invisible. It
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: broke in some Democratic primaries first. In Illinois, Raja Krishnamoorthi
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: lost a Senate primary despite nearly $ 10 million from Fairshake.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Julianna Stratton made the money itself the issue, calling it
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: a MAGA-backed crypto pack. Sri Thanadar lost his Michigan House
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: seat despite $ 2 million from the same people. So once
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the money becomes a story, it stops being a weapon
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and it actually can turn into a liability. In New
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: York's 12th district earlier this year, the AI industry spent
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: heavily to defeat Alex Boris, who wrote New York's AI
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: safety law. Boris lost, but he lost to Micah Lasher,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: who co-sponsors the same law. Brad Carson, whose group backed Boris,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: put it this way, the industry, quote, made him into
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: a national hero. And a quick note on Carson, he
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: argues his group shouldn't be counted as industry money because
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: it spends to push AI regulation. It's still an AI
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: company's money from Anthropic backing the company's preferred rules. It's
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: a form of capture. They're just They just have different
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: lines that they won't cross compared to open AI and
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: the other side of it. It's a different motive, but
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: it's still the same mechanism. And it's worth noting. But
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: here's the second limit to this capture plan. If you
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: capture the wrong principle, the whole thing can flip. And
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: this is where crypto both had an enormous success, which
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: led to enormous failure. The industry's greatest success was capturing
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: the White House. And it was also its undoing. Trump
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: disclosed that he made north of a billion dollars simply
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: from his crypto businesses alone in 2025. And once the
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: president's family became a stakeholder, the bill was not a
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: boring jurisdiction fight anymore. It turned into a vote on
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: whether the president gets to regulate his own business. So
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: it did two things at once, right? It made the
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: issue visible, which breaks step six in your capture blueprint.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: And it made democratic opposition free. No democrat is getting
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: primaried for voting against Trump's crypto business. The deterrent evaporated.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: The industry built a bipartisan capture machine and then one
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: principle made it partisan. So where does that gonna leave us?
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: Where does that leave crypto? Look, capture is never permanent
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and it isn't a one-time purchase. It's always, you're always
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: leasing because politicians will, no matter how bought off they are,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: they care about winning more than anything and they'll throw
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: any supporter out even a super PAC supporter under the
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: bus if it guarantees reelection. So the crypto industry got
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: greedy and that's what happened. So the question now is AI,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: which is trying to run the same, essentially six steps
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: that crypto ran with a better funded operation, fewer self-inflicted
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: wounds and an issue that most voters are only now
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: just starting to follow, but it's possible that it's too
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: late for AI too, right? That in some ways, It's
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: gotten too big. We'll see. Leading the futures groups have
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: spent in about a dozen primaries since New York and
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: won every one. If you want to see capture done right, though,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: don't watch crypto because crypto shows you where it breaks.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: We're going to see if AI has learned the right
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: lessons from crypto. But like I said, I'm not sure
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: that essentially the, I mean, you just have to see
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: my last three podcasts. What's the issue I led with? AI.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: In some ways, it may have gotten too big. They
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: had an opportunity to pull this off. And in some ways,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: the problem that both AI, big tech in general, and
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: crypto ran into was the good news was Trump was
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: easy to buy off. The bad news was Trump was
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: easy to buy off. And because he was so easy
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: to buy off, he turned what could have been a
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: bipartisan capture into a partisan issue. and made it nearly
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: impossible for anybody to support the crypto industry because they
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: lined the pockets of Donald Trump and his family. Just
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: a small little reminder on how Washington actually works. All right,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: we're going to sneak in a break. And when we
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: come back, my fascinating conversation with longtime Texas resident, observer, reporter, everything.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: And she's a Longhorn fan. We'll forgive her. It's Abby Livingston. Hey,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: this episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
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  Speaker 1: you by Ethos. Look, let me tell you about life insurance.
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• 49:07
  Speaker 1: of 2026. Meredith R. writes, hey, thank you for being
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: a voice of rationality and common sense. Thank you for
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: saying that. Meredith, either that or we're crazy together. I
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: know you aren't a big SEC guy. I get it.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: If I weren't in it, I wouldn't be either. I
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: appreciate your self-awareness. But I'd love your thoughts on Georgia
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: Tech and Tennessee, especially the true freshman Tennessee QB, who
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: didn't have the best statistical game but looked poised and composed. GBO.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Am I supposed to know what GBO is? GBO apostrophe.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: Love the podcast and your love for college sports. Thank you,
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Meredith R. I got to ask my younger colleagues here,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: is GBO exclamation point, is that shorthand for something? All right.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: My team tells me GBO is go big orange. Meredith,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: if you want to make fun of me in another
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: question for not knowing GBO is go big orange, or
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: if my friend Jessica Taylor at the Cook Report also
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: wants to troll me about that, I will. Look, you
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: know what I can't wait for? I can't wait for
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Texas to go in and visit Tennessee. I bet you, Meredith,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: you can't wait to see that game. Josh Heupel is
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: just a hell of a quarterback whisperer. I'm sorry for
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: whatever happened with Nico, right? And I'd love to have
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: seen what would have happened with another year of Nico
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: with Heupel. But a couple of things about that game
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: and about Georgia Tech in particular. I thought, you know,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: I have a look. Georgia Tech has been a thorn
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: in Miami's side over the last few years. Brent Key,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: I didn't know who deserved more credit, Brent Key or
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: Haynes King, right? The longtime quarterback in Georgia Tech, who
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: I swear was there for 30 years. I know technically
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: he was only there for four or five, but it
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: feels like he was there forever. And they're just a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: tough team. And they usually play pretty smart. This Georgia
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: Tech team wasn't playing very smart. They do look like they're...
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: sort of starting from scratch again and that they need some,
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: I I'm very curious. Georgia tech is a, is a
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: program that has an incredible history, the Atlanta, and they
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: have some incredibly successful alums. And so in theory, like
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: our friends at Stanford, right? There's plenty of rich people
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: that have Georgia tech sheepskin and who could be writing checks.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's a hotbed and all of those things. Look, Georgia
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Tech has won a national title in my lifetime. They
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: split a national title with Colorado. Neither one of them
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: were the best team that year. It was the team
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: in Coral Gables that was. You can just ask my
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: friends in Austin how good that Miami team was that
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: was denied that national title. We had a Colorado beat
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. I believe that Notre Dame might have beat Miami. So,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: you know, I think that that may have screwed us
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But the point is, is that Georgia
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Tech is is, you know, this is not. This is
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: this is not Vanderbilt. No offense. I know Vanderbilt recently
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: has been a little bit better, but they haven't been
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: the Vanderbilt, you know, great school that that occasionally does
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: decent in sports. They were really good, you know, but
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: the basketball program has been a little bit lagging. I mean,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: in the 80s and 90s, Georgia Tech basketball was fantastic.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: We haven't seen that in a while. It's been disappointing.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech baseball, Miami got one of its Hall of
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: Fame coaches from Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech baseball has been
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: good in the past. So I feel like they're at
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: a crossroads a little bit in general. And you thought
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: the football team was making progress, but it feels like
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: they're sort of stuck. It's like BC. You have a
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: pretty good history. You are in an urban center. You
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: do have some wealthy alums that they invested. Are you
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: going to go all in or not? And I'm not sure.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: We know Tennessee's all in. Between the Manning family, between Peyton,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: between the Haslams. I get it. I know Tennessee's all in.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: And I am not sure whether I'm a believer yet
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: that Tennessee's a playoff team. But I believe they've got
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: a schedule. I believe Texas comes. I want to look
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: that up real quick. Oh, that's coming up. That's coming
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: up next week. So what we really have here this week,
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: don't Meredith, don't screw this up at Kennesaw state, but
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: don't show a lot, but my goodness, September 26, your season.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: I have a feeling Texas is, is not the burnt
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: orange might only get more burnt when they show up
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: to Knoxville. So, um, I'm, I'm, uh, The gambler in
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: me is very interested in that Tennessee, Tennessee getting points
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: at home. Anyway, GBO, go big orange, right? All right.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: Jesse writes in, hey, I'd love to hear your thoughts
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: on the Tennessee gubernatorial race. A lot of Tennessee. Tennessee
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: has been solidly red for decades, but Jerry Green is
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: framing the race against Marsha Blackburn as a job interview,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: arguing that voters deserve debates and direct engagement from both
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: candidates before casting their ballots. Do you think that message
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: can resonate with conservative Tennessee voters? Look, the fact is
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: it hasn't. It should. And this gets into something that
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: I thought about doing a longer monologue about. But I'd
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: like to see an attempt by news organizations to modernize
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: what is political debate. Meaning, look, as much as I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: love moderating debates, I've done a bunch of them. I
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: don't love sharing debates. moderating duties. It is one of
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: those things where you don't have five people drive a car.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: I don't believe in that. It really only should be
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: one person. So I will fully confess, I've enjoyed working
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: with plenty of my colleagues. I have co-moderated a bunch
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: of debates. I enjoy solo moderating better than co-moderating, just
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: like it's a lot easier to drive a car by
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: yourself than drive a car with four or five different
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: hands also on the steering wheel. But as much as
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: I think I can add a lot to a debate
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: or anybody can add, a moderator can add a lot
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: to a debate, I'm also a huge fan of the
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: Lincoln-Douglas style debate process too, right? And in fact, I
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: want to modify how debates are done. And the Presidential
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Debate Commission, a bunch of us have been pushing them
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: for years to go to some format like this. And
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: they kind of, they get closer and closer, right? We're
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: going to spend the next 15 minutes talking about this issue,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: but it ends up feeling a little more regimented two
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: minutes at a time. I think, you know, right now
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: you have candidates just not wanting to participate because Republicans say, well,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I don't trust the media. I don't like that media organization.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: And then another Democrats, then if they say, well, we'll,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: we'll debate if you, if you let, you know, Scott
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Jennings moderate, um, and you're like, whoa, what Democrats going
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: to agree to let a Republican partisan moderate, right? So, um,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I'd love to see, essentially, like, let's bring debates to
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: the way that most people now consume political information, which
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: is vertical, right? And what I'd like to see is,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: and this is where, you know, shoot, I'd host them
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: on my YouTube channel, right? I will give you a question.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: You respond. You send me your video. Here's your video
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: and you respond. Respond to the video. Candidate Y sends
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: me theirs and vice versa. If I were running a
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: news organization right now, particularly a local news organization, and
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: this is sort of a ripoff of an idea my
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: old boss, Doug Bailey, tried to do, which was essentially
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: invite every candidate to record their plan on these 10 issues.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: We'll tell you what issues to do, and you give
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: us one minute on these issues. And each night will
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: air the one minutes back to back with each other,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: you know, candidate X, candidate Y. But if I were
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: doing a local media, I would create some sort of
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: vertical YouTube page, you know, for the Tennessee governor's race.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: And the question of the day is this. Here's the
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: vertical video from Marsha. Marsha Blackburn gets to answer first today.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: Here's her vertical video. Yeah. Are they is it going
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: to be a little scripted? Well, debates are scripted. But
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: in some ways, you would probably get more participation. We
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: need to get more candidates to participate in engagement with
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: voters and engagement on issues. You would get more engagement
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: and essentially let them respond video to video. And as
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: a news organization, you'd be the ones to decide which
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: questions and issues that should be the subject of this.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: And then they submit the videos to you. You put
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: a time limit on it, 90 second, two minute, however
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: you wanted to do it. But the point is, is
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: that instead of standing on ceremony that we invite you
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: to our studio or we invite, just be a platform
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: that surfaces what these candidates believe on these various issues
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: so that you can have this job interview. And I
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: think that by forcing it that way, then what you
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: do is you invite, hey, maybe you could create a
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: voting scale or sort where, you know, which, you know,
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: where would you like to see another rebuttal, right? And,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: you know, you let voters in the district or state decide, hey,
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: we want to see more on this. Give us more
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: detail on this. And you come back and, hey, the
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: response from those that have watched these videos over the
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: last 24 hours is they want more details on this
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: and they want more details on that, you know? Look,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: this is just one idea. This was me spitballing in
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: the shower for about five minutes as I was thinking
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: about lamenting the fact that we don't have enough debates.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: It would be right about now that I would start
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: to turn on C-SPAN after 10 o'clock at night and
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: be able to watch essentially debates every night from throughout
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: the country, races all over the country, But fewer and
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: fewer candidates are agreeing to debates. Fewer and fewer news
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: organizations are having luck getting candidates to agree to debates.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: Part of it is because of our polarized climate. Part
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: of it is our lack of competition, particularly on the
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: congressional level. But it seems to me that instead of,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: to all my friends in the media, local media, regional media,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: and national media, instead of complaining that they won't do it,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: on our terms anymore. And they don't have to. Instead,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: do it on the terms that the voters and the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: viewers will respond to the most. And that's vertical video. Anyway,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: it's just one way. I don't know if this solves,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: doesn't really answer your question very well, Jesse. And I
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: take your point there. If you recall, Jesse, or you
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: should go back, I had one of the candidates running
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: as an independent who's sort of a, former Republican running
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: as an independent, Laura Pinkston. And the reason I'll never
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: forget the interview, she said, hey, our race is the
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: most colorful race because Marsha Blackburn, Laura Pinkston, and you
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: have the Democratic candidate that you were talking about, Jerry Green. So,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: you know, pink, green, black, all represented in the last names,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: all three women, by the way, as well. I'm guessing
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: the only way Marsha Blackburn would have agreed to a
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: debate is if the late, great Dolly Parton were going
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: to moderate. Perhaps Marsha Blackburn wouldn't have refused a debate
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: moderated by Dolly Parton. But I'm guessing that's about the
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: only person. Maybe if Peyton Manning agreed to be the moderator,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: she would have to say yes to that. But look,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: the realistic way to do this is that I do think,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: you know, my friends in local media in Tennessee, start
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: thinking different ways. It's just all about engaging these. All
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: you're asking from these campaigns is to answer questions about
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: these issues, right? And you can even make it like,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: here are the five issues that our viewers or readers
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: are asking the candidates to respond to. Send us two-minute videos,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: and this is the first issue of the day, and
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: here you go. And ultimately, what's your job in local media?
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: You're trying to get more information about the candidates in
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: service to the voters. And this is one way to
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: get more information from the candidates in service to the voters.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Next question comes from Tyler H. here from Michigan's Fifth.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Abdul Al-Sayed recently debated an empty podium after Mike Rogers
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: declined to participate. Was avoiding a one-on-one debate the right
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: strategic move for Rogers? And what do you make of
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: his decision to travel to Texas for the convention instead?
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: I have to tell you, I do not understand the
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: campaign Rogers is running. He's not, I think he has
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: an opportunity here. There's a handful of Democrats that are
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: skeptical of Abdul El-Sayed for ideological reasons. But Rogers hasn't
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: made a pivot to the center. And then going down
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: to the Texas midterm convention only seemed to reinforce that. Now, look,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: I think he sees Abdul El-Sayed as a financial opportunity, right?
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: And so he wanted to lean into that. And I'm
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: sure he raised a ton of money in Texas from
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: donors he didn't normally, he hadn't gotten before. because of
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: Abdul Al-Sayed. So I understand the financial motivation to go
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: down to that midterm convention, but I don't think it
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: was the best voter look. And he hasn't done much
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: of a pivot to the center, uh, at least in
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: a significant way. And there was a big blow that
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: he got, um, yesterday, Sander Levin, who, a former Senator,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Jewish Senator from Michigan, um, 95 years old, by the way, um,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: came out with a very, it wasn't a great endorsement
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: of Abdul El-Sayed, but it was basically a pretty, it
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: was a pretty bad endorsement if you're, uh, and I
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: want to read it to you a little bit. If you're, um,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: if you're Mike Rogers. So Sander Levin being a longtime, uh,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: Michigan politician, Senator, yes, Jewish Democrat, um, put out a
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: statement earlier this week encouraging all, he called it, encouraging
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: all Michiganders of conscience to vote for Abdul El-Sayed. Let
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: me read his statement because it strikes me that had
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: Rodgers pivoted in a different way, I'm not saying Levin
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: would have ever endorsed Rodgers, but maybe he doesn't feel
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: like he has to put out the statement. But let
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: me read the statement, and it begins this way. The
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: administration of Donald Trump represents an existential threat to our democracy.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: That's the first line of Sander Levin's statement. I have
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: worked with many Republicans on many issues, but the MAGA
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: movement has gone outside the realm of democracy and is
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: lurching towards authoritarianism by restricting free speech, the rights of minorities,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: our variability to vote, and more. The terrible anti-Muslim bigotry
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: of the campaign against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is emblematic
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: of their approach. I have some significant disagreement with Abdul
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: in his approach to the conflict involving Israel and the Palestinians.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: I have been a strong proponent of a two-state solution
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: to that crisis, and he has not supported this approach. Yet,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: as I reflect, I must say that I have had
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: disagreements with many colleagues in the House and Senate over
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: the decades, but I have never failed to support the
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: full Democratic ticket. We need officeholders who will support strong
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: action on climate change, a new era of trade where workers'
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: rights and the environment come first, expanded and affordable health care, housing,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: child care, education, food, and other basic necessities of life.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: who will center the freedom to form unions, living wages,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: real retirement benefits, health and safety, who will stand up
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: and fight to advance the great American experiment in a
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: democracy where all feel welcome, heard and included. That's why
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: I've devoted my life to, and I am confident Dr.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Abdul El-Sayed will be a strong advocate for these goals.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: I don't, like I said, I don't know if he
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: puts out that statement, if Rogers makes more of an
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: effort to the center, more of an effort to reach
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: out to a group of voters, perhaps like Sandy Levin,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: and some others who have been Levin supporters. And the
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: fact that he did, the fact that he goes to
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: the midterm convention hangs with MAGA, right? I'm not saying
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: that was what did it, but it may have been
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: what made it easier for those that were probably trying
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: to get him to do this, to come out and
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: do this. And again, I'm not gonna, I don't know
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: the backstory and all this stuff, But when you read
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: the wording of that statement, right, this he's clearly not
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: this was not somebody who was enthusiastic to see to
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: get the Democratic nomination. But the behavior of Rogers campaign
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: and sort of how this is gone. Is how he
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: framed why he is going to be a supporter and
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: a voter of Abdul Sayyed. And I look at that
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: and I think and this is where I'm like, I
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: don't think Rogers. He just hasn't figured this out. A
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: better politician would have figured out how to be pro-Canada
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: against some of these tariffs that are hurting the Michigan
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: auto industry and reaching out to those that are skeptical
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: of Abdul El-Sayed's foreign policy or his ties to some
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: parts of the socialist movement, although he's not a member
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: of the DSA. But that's not what Rogers has done
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: since the primary. And I think if you're asking me,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: I think if he's lost this race, he lost it
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: in the first six weeks after the August 4th primary.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: This is not a race that we will say he
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: lost in the last six weeks of this election. Andrea, Salinas'
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: district is where Scott C. Turner of Oregon lets me
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: know where he is. He didn't want to tell me
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: the number. But hey, why don't I go get the number?
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: Let me make sure I get it right. the sixth
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: congressional district. So, all right, I wanted to get that
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: right for you there, Scott. I saw reports that Democrats
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: are planning investigations into Trump on several fronts if they
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: take control of the House, but how effective could those
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: investigations actually be, especially if Republicans retain the Senate? Would
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: their practical impact mostly be in the court of public opinion?
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: And how would that change if Democrats controlled both chambers finally?
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: Could Trump potentially undercut those efforts by issuing pardons, including
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: attempting to pardon himself? Thanks so much. Well, look, the
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: pardons are coming no matter what, right? And whatever hesitancy
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: he might have had of issuing pardons for all his family, well,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: he now has the Biden precedent to point to to say, well,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Biden issued pardons for all his family. I'm going to
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: issue pardons for all my family. So look, those pardons
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: are coming. Do they come now, later? I mean, he
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: sells a pardon every week, right? You want to talk
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: about a story that just doesn't get traction anymore. The
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: fact that There is an entire sort of pardon industry
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: in Washington. And those that seek pardons know exactly how
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: it works. You find somebody close to the president. You
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: pay a certain amount of money. some charge more than others.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: You probably ought to figure out a way to make
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: sure Trump benefits in some way. Maybe you're a Democrat
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: and you say nice things about him, like a Blagojevich
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: did or a Menendez has tried to do, right, to
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: get his Or maybe you just give them a piece, right?
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: You just give them a taste of whatever it is.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: So the pardons are a rolling thing. As for the investigations,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: it is court of public opinion. But I think it's
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: really important to get all of this. There's different ways
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: you can use these investigations. To me, I'd be using
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: the investigations— to figure out how to make sure a
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: future president doesn't do this, to figure out how do
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: we essentially, you know, I think the proper way to
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: look at the Trump years is it's the blacklight MRI.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: I think you've heard me say this before. It's like,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: we turned a blacklight onto Washington and went, oh my God,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: this place is even swampier than we thought, right? He
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: figured out any loophole that existed that could be exploited
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: for financial gain, that could be exploited for political gain,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: that could be exploited for narcissistic gain, he found. So
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be doing investigations just for the press release.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: The investigation should be about being fact-finding to make sure
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: we don't do this again. Do we need a constitutional amendment?
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: Is this something that can be codified into law? Is
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: this an issue that runs into um, uh, uh, separation
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: of powers. It is, it needs to be in service
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: to reform. I also think these investigations need to feature
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of hearings, the subpoenas, the big names, like
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: it is, that is one way, but again, they need
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: to be in service to a reform, whether that reform
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: is a constitutional amendment or that reform is a piece
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: of legislation. Um, or whether you truly want to use
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: it to make a case for impeachment, which I wouldn't
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: do unless there's bipartisan support for it, you know, and
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: I would say bipartisan right now, and you won't have
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: Thomas Massey there to make it bipartisan come 2027. That
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: would be the only way I would, I would use
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: it in service of that. To me, it should be
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: in service of reform so that this doesn't happen again.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: That's how, if you want your investigations to be taken
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: seriously and, And you want voters, not in the partisan spaces,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: but sort of in the middle, to at least think
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: you're on the up and up. It needs to be
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: in service of a reform to prevent it from happening again.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: Final question, Mike B. Ogden. Fellow South Florida native from Miami, Sunset86. Man,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Sunset was Killian's chief rival in soccer. If Killian didn't
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: win the state title, Sunset would win the state title. Anyway,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: good to hear from you. now living in Ogden, Utah's
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: first district, where I get to cast my symbolic votes.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: If Democrats take the House and or Senate, what can
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: they realistically do short of impeachment to influence issues like
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: the war, tariffs, AI, immigration? I'm tired of getting my
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: hopes up only to see them dashed by a lack
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: of political will or an inability to work together. Appreciate
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: your work, Mike B. Ogden. Well, look, I think some
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: of this stuff's going to get vetoed by Trump, but
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: I do think you've got to try, right? You've got
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: to see I think that if Republicans do poorly, those
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: that survive might be more open to voting against him
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: on tariffs. And you never know, right? Trump is somebody
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: that doesn't– he hates being a loser. And so I
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: think the hardest decision Democrats are going to have to
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: make is what happens when Trump calls up Jeffries and
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: Schumer and says, hey, I want to do a deal
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: on something? And he may actually want to do a deal.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: He may be willing to sign a piece of legislation
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: that Democrats are like 80% for. Do you take the deal? Look,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: you know where I come from, right? They were both
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: elected by the people. If they all decide to do something,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: the American people sent Donald Trump to office in 24,
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: and they may choose to send a majority of Democrats
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: back to Washington in in 2026. So voters are saying
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: they want you both to figure it out. So I
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: know what I believe is long-term better politics, which is
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: if you can get something done, don't miss an opportunity
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: to get something done. But the political pressure of a
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: presidential primary campaign that'll be happening simultaneously, where you'll have
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of people who can backseat drive what Congress
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: is doing, and it's a free critique. And these presidential
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: candidates are going to enjoy running against Washington, going, oh,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: there are those, you know, oh, and especially some Democrats
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: may even name check Chuck Schumer in a negative light, right?
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: So I just think the atmosphere in 27 is just
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: going to be just really odd, especially if Democrats win
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: control of both houses. Because on one hand, you'll have,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: you know, Democrats like to legislate. They're the party of government.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: They like to legislate and they want to do some
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: investigation and they feel like they're going to need to
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: do both. You're going to have candidates running for office
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: who are going to be running more idealistic campaigns and
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: they're going to want to mock Washington and Congress and stuff.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: So I just, I throw all that out there as
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: I don't like the incentive structure that are out there
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: in 2027. Like I said, I think Trump at some
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: point is going to want to work with the two–
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: if Democrats win the majority. I know that sounds crazy
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: right now, but we all know Trump doesn't like– he
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: wants to be a part of every story. He wants
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: to be a part of it all. So do you
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: work with him? I think on the other stuff, you
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: can pick some stuff that you think you can get
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: bipartisan support to push him back. Tariffs is one. The
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: Iran war is one. Those are two big ones. It
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: could be the Pentagon. It could be funding Israel. So
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: there is some areas that I, you know, I certainly
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: think that going down that road is possible. But I
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: think this is a real challenge for Jeffries and Schumer,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: or if it's Schatz instead of Schumer. I kind of
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: think it should be Schatz instead of Schumer. I think
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: Schumer sitting in the Senate... Democratic leader in 2027 and
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: 2028 will just be, he'll be a punching bag for
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: his own party in the presidential primary season. That's not
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: good for anybody. It's not good for Senate Democrats. It's
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: not good for congressional Democrats. It's not good for Schumer, obviously.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: It just creates all sorts of, he just becomes an
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: easy target, creates internal division. I don't know if somebody
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: can get to Schumer and say, look, because if they
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: get the Senate majority, Schumer deserves a lot of credit,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: not a little bit of credit. Okay. You know, I,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: you may have a ton of strategic disagreements. I certainly
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: think he's made a lot of strategic mistakes. There's plenty
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: to look at over the years. I think he's not
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: the best messenger for the party. He's always been better
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: as sort of, he's always been a better consigliere than
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: the lead dog. Um, but nobody likes to hear that. And, uh, And,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: you know, who knows, right? Is he willing to, if
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: he gets this majority back and it was all on him,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: he got Mary Patello in, he got Jared Brown to
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: get back in, right? He sort of got Roy Cooper.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, some of these recruits are his and he deserves,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: he did his job. But what's in the best interest
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: of the party is him not symbolically being leader of
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: the party anymore. And I think that that's going to
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: That'll be another. So the point is, Mike, I don't
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: know how united even to a Democratic majority will– I
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: don't know how united the Democrats will be even if
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: the Democrats have majorities in both. You'll have the presidential
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: primary causing its own sort of orbit that will potentially
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: create different types of cross currents in Washington. And then
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: Trump is going to be the wild card here. By
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: the way, what does your conference look like? How many
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: Democrats in Trump districts are in your conference? Is your
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: majority made up of only people that carried Harris districts
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: and maybe some old Biden to Trump swing districts? Or
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: are there some deeper red Trump districts that Democrats win?
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: Where you suddenly have a true, you know, a more
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: powerful and bigger blue dog caucus. So, you know, how
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: big the majority is and where it comes from also matters.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: It will tell me what is feasible, what is possible
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: and what to get done. Hey, just a quick reminder.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: that I'm hosting Next Predict in New York on October
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: 22nd and 23rd. It's the world's largest prediction markets conference.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: It'll be two weeks before the midterms. Anybody who has
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: a piece of this industry will be there. Registration is
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: at nextpredict.io. All right. Let's talk a little college football
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: week three. Miami's at Wake Forest. I will tell you
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: that four months ago, I circled this game as, you know,
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: there's this narrative out there outside of University of Miami
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: circles that Mario Cristobal-led teams always blow a game that
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't blow, right? And they're not. By the way,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: Mario Cristobal's not. Every top team has this happen to them, right?
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: What did we just see with Oregon? They lost to
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: a team that lost to Tulsa the week before. But
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: there is this, one of the gambling podcasts I listen to,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: shout out to the big bets on campus, guy named Stucky,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: who always calls Coach Cristobal Mario, which just, it drives
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: a bunch of us crazy. Same as Mario, but that's okay.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: It's funny. I like this guy. I don't know him,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: but he just, you know, I think he seems like
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: a decent dude. And he had this amazing stat about
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: Cristobal has blown, has lost a game. A Cristobal head
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: coach team has lost a game every year at Miami
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: and at Oregon when he's been a double digit favorite.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: He lost at least one game. And, you know, it's
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: always this sort of a brain fart game, right? I
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: don't know how else to describe it. Um, so, you know,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: there's this idea that, okay, that, you know, if you
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: look at the, if you, if you look at the
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: predictions about whether Miami will win 11 games this year,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: 10 games this year, or 12 games this year in
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: the regular season, a lot of it is what's priced
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: in is this idea that they're going to somehow blow
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: a game other than Notre Dame. There's an expectation that
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: they somehow lose on the road to Notre Dame. I
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: don't believe that. I'm more confident they'll beat Notre Dame
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: than I am, uh, confident about some other games sometimes.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: I know this is going to be one focused team.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: But I think that the monkey on the Cristobal back,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: I think he shed it. I think he got rid
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: of it during the playoff run last year. Miami didn't
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: lose a single playoff game, even the national title game.
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: Miami had one missed block on a punt that cost
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: them that title game. They were nearly perfect in the playoff.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: That was a focused team. That was a well-coached team.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: That was a team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: And what I would say is I think I've seen
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: a ton of evolution. Look, he mismanaged the clock in
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: that famous, infamous Georgia Tech game a few years ago. Well,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: he corrects it. But one thing that I've noticed about
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: Coach Cristobal is he doesn't make the same mistake twice.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: And so I think this team's going to be super
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: ready for Wake. I think we caught a break in
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: that Wake's having to play in a short week. Miami
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: played on Thursday. And so now they have a Friday game,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: but in fact, Miami has yet to play on a Saturday.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: First game of the year was Stanford Friday. Second game
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: of the year was Thursday, Florida A & M. Third
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: game of the year is now Friday, Wake Forest. This
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: is part of the bad ACC deal that the, the
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: ACC cut with ESPN, where they get to dictate all
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: these ridiculous Friday, Thursday and Friday night games so that
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: they can, and then preserve the better time slots for
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: the SEC teams. Um, Again, I don't blame ESPN. I
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: blame the ACC for allowing themselves to become a junior
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: partner with their most important business partner, but I digress.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: So Miami's stuck. The good news is we're getting all
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: these ridiculous weekday games out of the way early. The
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: ACC did us a favor on this schedule. I will
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: not lie. I mean, some might argue that The ACC
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: was trying to make sure that they didn't screw up
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: Miami's season with dumbass scheduling. And so far, so good.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: So I know that Wake's well coached. I think Jake
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: Dickard is a good coach. I think Wake is one
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: of those teams that you can't sleep on. But they
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: just went through a– they had to play– what was it?
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: They go in a double overtime or triple overtime. And
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: at Purdue, they won. And I'm glad they won. I
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: didn't want Wake losing and then going into that game.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: In some ways, I'm glad they got the Purdue win.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: They can feel like they won the game they were
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: supposed to win, and now they can deal with what
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: they have to deal with with Miami. But I'd like
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: Miami to prove me right about this being a focused team.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: Here's what I'm going to learn about this team. How
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: focused are they? How much are they ready to just
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: kick ass and take names? That's my feeling. I think
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: this team is as ready to play anybody as any
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: Miami team has been since the 2001 and 2002 era.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: And so I've almost got cocky confidence, and I'm very
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: concerned about even expressing it because that's just when the
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: college football gods have fun with you, right? I'm sure
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: Oregon fans thought, well, Stillwater will be a get-right game.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: It was not. So look, it's Friday night. Students are
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: going to be hopped up. They're going to be excited.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: So this will be a first game for some freshmen, right?
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: Their home game, pretty exciting night game. And it's a
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: Friday night. So they're really excited because they get to
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: party Friday night and then they get to party Saturday.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: So it could be a rowdy crowd. It's pretty important
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: when you're playing these games at night on the road
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: against teams you should beat. Don't let them hang around.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: Put them away early. That's– this is what I'm– you know,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: I'll know I'm okay with this if we're putting them
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: away early and just get it done. You know, trust
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: the process. Get better every week. So we've got that. Look,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: as I said, and I'm representing the game of the weekend,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: of course, is LSU coming to Ole Miss. I'm not
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: very optimistic about– I don't– I am– I look at
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: what Louisville did to that Ole Miss defense, and I'm wondering,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: what's LSU going to do with that? And I know
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: Louisville's a really good team. They might be a playoff team.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: That's another big game of the weekend. It's a big
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: game for one of the Todds here, because SMU has
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: to go to Louisville. And it's arguably going to matter,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: probably the winner guaranteed into the ACC title game. The
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: loser's going to have to hope for some more. some
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: losses around the road. It is probably the second most
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: important game of the weekend after LSU. Ole Miss. So,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know what I'm watching at 3.30 on Saturday.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: It's SMU Louisville. And I know what I'm watching at
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: 7.30 or 8. Is 7.30. It's going to be LSU
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss. But it's a pretty good weekend. Look, there's
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: another Friday night game. You know, you can put in
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: the two box. At the same time, Miami plays Wake.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: There's a rank versus rank. Houston plays Texas Tech. Big
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: 12 also has the same bad deal with ESPN where
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: they're stuck having to do Friday night games because, again,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: ESPN is only in business with the SEC, and then
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: they throw crumbs at the ACC and the Big 12,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: but I digress. I love Houston in this spot at
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. I think Texas Tech, it's not clear that
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: their defense is as good as it was last year,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: and it's not clear that they have a quarterback yet.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: I know they have a ton of talent and they
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: spend the real money, but they do have a quarterback
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: issue and their defense was amazing last year. And just
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: like Miami's defense, it was amazing last year. It's going
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: to take a small step back. Houston has been on
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: the move. Houston is a team that I think is
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: only going to get better. In fact, I think Houston
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: and SMU are going to be spending money like their
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: Texas and Texas A & M over the next and
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech over the next few years. I think Houston
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: and SMU are the two rising schools. I think in
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: this era of college football, being in a major market
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: matters a lot. SMU being in Dallas, University of Houston
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: being in Houston. And so I think these will not
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: be just sort of one season Cinderella's here. But we're
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: going to learn a lot about both Houston and Texas
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: Tech in this game. But I'm on upset watch there.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: And I got another place that I'm on upset watch
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: for that I'm and I'm awfully curious about, and that's
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: Kentucky traveling to Texas A & M. Look, Kentucky seemed
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: to run out of gas against Alabama, but they played
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: a pretty tough first half. And Texas A & M,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting. It looks like they pulled away
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: from Arizona State, but basically Arizona State just melted, literally, right?
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: It was like 125 degrees on the field or something
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: like that in College Station. It was super hot. Texas
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: A & M was in a tough game, and I
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: don't know if they win that game if the temperatures
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: are cooler. Arizona State, Kenny Dillingham, once again, found diamonds
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: all over the place, diamonds in the rough all over
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: the place. That's what he does. I would just keep
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: an eye on that Kentucky-Texas A & M game. Texas
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: A & M, you know, Chris Eliza, he's been written
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: for them. So I don't want him in a totally
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: a grumpy mood, but I'm on a small upset alert
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: on that one. And I think that's going to be
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: one at least worth keeping an eye on. But other
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: than that, those are probably the three games that I
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: will spend the most time on learning and trying to
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: find out about. And of course, there's always the game
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: none of us are talking about that will come out
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: of nowhere and we'll be like, wait a minute, Michigan
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: State is up three at halftime against Notre Dame? I'm
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: not saying that's going to happen. I don't think that's
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: going to happen. But would it really shock you if
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: it did, right? Or, huh. Texas seems to be struggling
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: against UTSA. They're kind of sleepwalking, right? A little bit
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: of a hangover in the Ohio State game. And that one,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: all that means is Texas won't cover their 30-point spread.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: But the point is, is that there's– I'm sure– and then,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: of course, I glossed over a game that I should
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: have made a bigger deal out of with rumors that
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: there are moving vans in front of Mike Norvell's house
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: in Tallahassee. The Florida State is– The chatter has already begun.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: Is this Mike Norvell's? Is this game against Alabama in
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: Tuscaloosa this weekend Mike Norvell's last game? They fired the
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: AD earlier in the week. If this is a pasting,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: if this is just ugly, is this Mike Norvell's last game?
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: Or what if he pulls another upset? Not a lot
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: of people are predicting that. But that's a game that
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: could have a lot of impact on the future of
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: of Florida State football, which, of course, in my household
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: is important to quite a few people. Anyway, with that,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: enjoy your college football weekend. And if you choose to
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: sprinkle a few dollars, good luck. Don't overdo it. And
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: realize there's always more football. Enjoy your Sunday as well.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: And I'll see you on Monday.