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The OpenAI Bubble

The core claim here is bigger than one startup maybe overspending on GPUs. It’s that OpenAI has become the story holding together a huge chain of spending, lending, construction, and stock-market optimism, and if that story breaks, a lot of supposedly separate bets may turn out to be the same bet.

The load-bearing narrative

OpenAI’s spending and obligations

Who actually holds the risk

Oracle as the sharpest edge

Memory chips and knock-on inflation

Phantom deals and media amplification

SoftBank and the funding chain

Anthropic as a mirror image

What would actually happen in a failure

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The skinny

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