Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW DATA CONFIRMS Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be OVER SOONER Than you Think.... | EP 1473

Transcript

NEW DATA CONFIRMS Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be OVER SOONER Than you Think.... | EP 1473 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:01
  Today we woke up to rumors of the Iran war coming to an end
• 0:06
  and global markets had added trillions.
• 0:10
  But that's not why we're quietly getting more bullish on Bitcoin
• 0:13
  today. Bitcoin just ended A5 month
• 0:16
  losing streak ending March in the positive as we see Wales
• 0:21
  have been buying at the second most aggressive rate ever in
• 0:25
  Bitcoin history and all of this is happening while Bitcoin is
• 0:29
  still range bound between 60 to 70 K.
• 0:32
  So the question, the real question, I think on all of our
• 0:34
  mind is, is a breakout coming and if so, in what direction
• 0:40
  will it finally break to I I see someone in the chat.
• 0:44
  I see you guys in the chat like finally a bullish show.
• 0:47
  I, I do have some bullish, you know some some bullish on chain
• 0:51
  metrics here. We do have some bullish news to
• 0:53
  talk about, but then there's also we really just don't know
• 0:58
  again, we've been range bound in the 60 to 70 K range and you can
• 1:03
  really make the case for Bitcoin going either way.
• 1:05
  But we're going to start with the bullish.
• 1:07
  We're going to start with the bullish before I probably put a
• 1:10
  little bit of water on on our on our opium for the day.
• 1:14
  So obviously, guys, March ended positively, barely, barely ended
• 1:21
  positively. It's not the biggest bullish
• 1:25
  reversal here, but as you can see, I'm over here on
• 1:28
  coinglass.com and this is the monthly return.
• 1:31
  So as you can see, we have finally ended the five month
• 1:35
  long losing streak that started in October.
• 1:38
  Obviously, as we talked about since October is the 1010 crash,
• 1:44
  we all were attributing it to Binance.
• 1:47
  It seems like it was Binance a fat finger.
• 1:49
  They, well, actually they said there was a glitch on their
• 1:51
  system. It liquidated everyone.
• 1:53
  We've been in pain since October.
• 1:56
  November we saw another huge liquidation of that, which
• 1:59
  finally got us down to the 60 K range.
• 2:01
  Well, March it it actually, I don't know if you guys were
• 2:05
  watching the monthly chart yesterday, but it was very
• 2:08
  interesting. It was literally negative on the
• 2:11
  monthly until about like 2 ish, 3:00 maybe.
• 2:15
  Actually it was probably right when the show ended.
• 2:17
  So like 1:00 to 2:00. And then we got, we got a little
• 2:21
  bit of action, we got a little bit of pumpiness coming into the
• 2:23
  market and we close at I would say a measly 1.81%.
• 2:28
  But hey, we finally got a green month on the board.
• 2:32
  So we're we're going to take that little wind as as they come
• 2:35
  five month long negative streak finally over.
• 2:40
  That's probably, you know, the the sigh of relief here for
• 2:43
  everyone. But I will bring it up and that
• 2:46
  does kind of bring in the broader question of where are we
• 2:49
  actually going here? Now, as I was mentioning,
• 2:52
  there's a good I mean, I don't know if this is really a
• 2:55
  headlight attributing, you know, cause and effect to what is
• 2:59
  happening, but the Bloomberg headline is Bitcoin snaps 5
• 3:02
  month long losing streak amid Iran optimism.
• 3:06
  And this morning I saw this on Twitter.
• 3:09
  This is Kaushi and it's saying US and Iran reportedly
• 3:12
  discussing a deal involving ceasefire, ceasefire in exchange
• 3:16
  for opening Hormuz. And that's not the the first
• 3:20
  rumor. Actually, for the last, I think
• 3:22
  it's been 48 hours, we've been hearing conflicting messaging
• 3:29
  from Trump himself kind of this, hey, the war is going to end.
• 3:34
  It's either the US is going to do a retreat or there's a
• 3:38
  ceasefire. There is apparently going to be
• 3:42
  a emergency broadcast or a nationwide broadcast apparently
• 3:48
  going to stop most of the major television coverage tonight at
• 3:51
  9:00 PM Eastern. And most people are suspecting,
• 3:56
  at least this is, if you believe the surface level take here,
• 4:00
  that Trump is going to announce something in regards to the
• 4:04
  Middle East. A lot of people are saying that
• 4:06
  maybe this is going to be the moment where we announce, hey,
• 4:10
  this is going to end in two to three weeks, which is what
• 4:12
  they've been saying. Or is this US just going to
• 4:16
  completely pull out of the Middle East and just let the
• 4:18
  Hormuz do what it does, let it be fall under Iran control?
• 4:22
  Though there has been some other more tinfoil hat narratives here
• 4:26
  that we are seeing today as well.
• 4:30
  UK Prime Minister, and I think it's Australian Prime Minister,
• 4:33
  I forget what they call them there.
• 4:34
  They are also having emergency broadcast or special broadcast
• 4:39
  tonight. And a lot of people are saying,
• 4:41
  well, the last time we saw this was in 2020 and we we know what
• 4:44
  came then. So I'm not going to go full
• 4:46
  tinfoil hat on us because apparently the official
• 4:50
  narrative, the official perspective of what we're going
• 4:52
  to hear tonight from Trump is going to be something in regards
• 4:55
  to what's happening in the Middle East.
• 4:57
  Now, obviously, if we do hear that, there is some form of
• 5:02
  ceasefire as the markets are basically pricing in.
• 5:05
  I don't know if you guys are watching the stock market right
• 5:07
  now, but in the last two days, it's literally added trillions
• 5:11
  of dollars, which is the market pricing in that.
• 5:13
  There may be a conclusion happening as we speak in the
• 5:16
  Middle East. We won't know until later
• 5:19
  tonight. So that's kind of what the
• 5:21
  general market sentiment is right now is that, hey, there
• 5:24
  might be some kind of conclusion happening in the Middle East,
• 5:27
  which is obviously, I think easing people's minds in the
• 5:31
  stock market. And as I've been saying for a
• 5:33
  while, a lot of people have been sitting on the sideline
• 5:36
  currently because the general uncertainty, what's happening in
• 5:39
  the Middle East, they don't know where to deploy the capital.
• 5:43
  And maybe maybe we'll see something positive come out of
• 5:46
  this in global markets. But that's not the only thing
• 5:49
  that that is pretty bullish coming out of the global
• 5:52
  markets. Here, let me let me pull this
• 5:54
  up. Did I have it here?
• 5:56
  Yeah, here. So guys, again, it's the end of
• 5:59
  March, you know, we it's it's April Fool's Day.
• 6:02
  It's first day of April. So this isn't me just, you know,
• 6:06
  trolling and joking here, but we did get the US ISM PMI numbers
• 6:10
  last night as well and it did go up.
• 6:13
  It barely ticked up to 52.7. I believe the February was 52.4.
• 6:20
  So this metric is basically shown that the economy is
• 6:23
  expanding and and if we get another expansion ticker here
• 6:28
  for the month of month of April, then that would confirm that the
• 6:32
  economy is expanding and people are feeling a little better
• 6:34
  about deploying their capital, which is, you know that that is
• 6:38
  a bullish indicator here for what's going on in Bitcoin.
• 6:41
  Usually Bitcoin does respond, Oh, I didn't pull it up, guys.
• 6:44
  Usually Bitcoin does respond well to global liquidity here.
• 6:48
  So if we are seeing signs of liquidity coming back into the
• 6:53
  system and not just from the money printer, then if we do go
• 6:57
  in an economic expansion territory, which we really
• 7:02
  haven't seen since what is this, 2023?
• 7:07
  So for the last two years, the economy has been contracting.
• 7:10
  Now we're starting to see signs that maybe we are going to see
• 7:13
  some expansion. Maybe people are starting to
• 7:15
  feel a little better. Maybe liquidity is coming back
• 7:18
  on the table. Maybe people are going to deploy
• 7:20
  their capital. Now that's kind of the broader
• 7:22
  macro picture here, you know, short and sweet, but Bitcoin
• 7:27
  News did tweet this, which is pretty interesting.
• 7:30
  Look at the momentum well inflow ratio here it is the second
• 7:35
  highest level ever and the last one this high was 2013.
• 7:40
  So it looks like Wales on chain are coming back in and they're
• 7:43
  trying to buy Bitcoin, which is usually a good indicator of, you
• 7:47
  know, general sentiment. Usually at the top of the
• 7:50
  market, you'd expect Wales to start selling at a either the
• 7:54
  bottom or close to the bottom of the bear market.
• 7:57
  You start seeing capital on chain come back on whales coming
• 8:01
  back in and buying. We have been covering this that
• 8:03
  whales are starting to build their appetite on Bitcoin,
• 8:07
  starting to feel like, yeah, OK, maybe, maybe we won't see
• 8:12
  another crazy capitulation, which obviously that's still on
• 8:16
  the table. As you guys know.
• 8:17
  You guys have been trolling me. I, I don't know if I'm feeling
• 8:21
  more bearish or maybe it's just the end of the bear market and
• 8:23
  that's kind of just the general vibe towards the end of a bear
• 8:26
  market where even the most bullish people start getting
• 8:29
  demoralized. So I'm not saying we're out of
• 8:33
  the woods yet, but we are starting to see some indicators
• 8:36
  here, whether it's macro and or whether it's on chain metrics.
• 8:40
  And of course a little bit of price reversal, which is
• 8:44
  starting to make you be like, OK, all right, maybe maybe it's
• 8:47
  not as bad as we thought it was. Maybe things are going to kind
• 8:51
  of work out sooner than we thought, though the standards
• 8:54
  heuristic here of we probably have six more months of this
• 8:58
  bear market before we know for a fact whether we're going to get
• 9:01
  a reversal or anything. I think that still holds true.
• 9:04
  And that does lead into, I would say more of the bearish take on
• 9:09
  where we currently are. And glass node tweeted this,
• 9:13
  which I, I think it's probably you could read this two ways.
• 9:17
  Here's their tweet. They go no catalyst, no range
• 9:20
  break. Bitcoin remained range bound
• 9:22
  between 60 and 70 KA spot demand begins to absorb supply and
• 9:26
  derivatives reset, volatility cools, But without a clear
• 9:29
  catalyst, A sustained breakout remains unlikely.
• 9:33
  And I think again, you could read this two ways.
• 9:37
  You could read this as saying, oh, bear market's still on for a
• 9:41
  lot longer until something significant happens.
• 9:44
  But you add into the amount of capital that is going into not
• 9:48
  just spot demand, but into the ETFs, into sailors new stretch
• 9:54
  product further the money he's about to raise so that he can
• 9:58
  smash by $42 billion of Bitcoin. You're starting to see, hey,
• 10:02
  maybe as this tweet says, you know, spot demand is beginning
• 10:06
  to absorb that supply, which doesn't necessarily mean we're
• 10:09
  going to see a reversal overnight.
• 10:12
  But that is starting to show on chain at least that hey there,
• 10:16
  there is some bullishness building.
• 10:18
  There is a floor being built here.
• 10:21
  So again, there is no catalyst yet and we obviously won't know
• 10:25
  what that catalyst is. It could be any number of
• 10:29
  things, but usually the main real indicator that you need to
• 10:33
  see is we're just going to see a significant amount of on chain
• 10:36
  liquidity, a lot of buying by who knows what and from who
• 10:40
  knows where. But as of now we are just
• 10:44
  saying, hey, Bitcoins doing pretty good.
• 10:47
  We finally ended a very brutal losing streak.
• 10:51
  Again, doesn't mean we're going to see a reversal overnight, but
• 10:55
  it could be an indicator of hey, maybe, just maybe it's not going
• 11:02
  to get as brutal as as we thought it was, which I I would
• 11:06
  fully take. I think every single one of us
• 11:08
  would fully take that. Now I do want to bring up this
• 11:11
  is probably the more more bearish take here.
• 11:13
  This is from my boy Ansel. He does great content.
• 11:16
  I really love his not only chart boying, but macro outlook and he
• 11:19
  goes like bitcoins looking a little weak at a minimum price
• 11:22
  needs to get above 72 K to switch bullish again and you can
• 11:25
  see his chart, you know a little chart buoying.
• 11:28
  So we're not out of the woods yet We're at currently.
• 11:31
  I don't even know what the price is right now, maybe 6869 K.
• 11:34
  Let me let me double check for you guys live.
• 11:37
  So there's still all right, 68 eight currently there's still,
• 11:44
  we still need as glass notice saying a catalyst.
• 11:46
  There still needs to be something to really change all
• 11:50
  of our perspectives here, whether that's the price going
• 11:53
  up above 72 K significantly, whether we see an end or a
• 11:58
  ceasefire or a, you know, controlled rollout out of the
• 12:01
  Middle East, then you're starting to see, hey, maybe the
• 12:04
  macro picture isn't as bad as everyone is trying to make it
• 12:08
  out to seem. Now here is another interesting
• 12:12
  indicator of potential actually showing that we are still very
• 12:17
  much in a bear market. It could get worse, but we're
• 12:20
  also in an area where realistically this is not a bad
• 12:25
  time to be buying and I like this one.
• 12:27
  So we have the longest period, this was on the 30th.
• 12:32
  This is the longest period without a signal in Bitcoin's
• 12:34
  history. Since the 2022 bear market
• 12:36
  bottom, it hasn't flashed a single overbought or oversold
• 12:39
  reading. Now for the first time in Italy
• 12:41
  three years, it's approaching oversold territory, which as the
• 12:45
  glass snow data is showing us, we're finally getting to a point
• 12:49
  where the spot demand, it is absorbing all of the supply, all
• 12:55
  of the selling. Now here is where it gets a
• 12:57
  little interesting. It goes every bear market bottom
• 13:00
  below -1.5. I don't know what that is gamma
• 13:03
  on this aggregate, the current valuation is -1.05.
• 13:08
  If this is a typical bear market, we should expect a
• 13:11
  little more downside. But the real question is whether
• 13:16
  this is actually a quote normal bear market.
• 13:18
  Yes, the four year cycle was still intact, but we still don't
• 13:22
  know whether we're going to see the historical 80% ish
• 13:26
  drawdowns. And that's I think the real
• 13:29
  question that everyone is asking themselves.
• 13:32
  I'm not going to say this time is different because I've
• 13:34
  already, you know got pie on my face on that.
• 13:38
  But that's the question we're all wondering with the
• 13:41
  institutional demand, with the Sailor Stretch product, with
• 13:46
  MSTR buying, with the amount of capital flowing in, with all of
• 13:51
  the Wall Street products being unleashed.
• 13:54
  The real question here and the fact that we had no real
• 13:57
  euphoric top. I know we talked about the idea
• 14:00
  that in what was it November of 2024 when Trump got elected,
• 14:05
  that was the euphoria moment. But we never saw a euphoria blow
• 14:09
  off top in the price, which is everyone is just asking, does
• 14:14
  that mean we're not going to see an 80% drawdown like we always,
• 14:17
  always expect? So it would be an atypical bear
• 14:20
  market in that sense. Yes, still a four year cycle,
• 14:24
  but maybe we don't see a drawdown as crazy as we thought
• 14:28
  it was And and I oh, sorry, I, I didn't, I didn't pull that up
• 14:31
  guys here you can you can check the chart here.
• 14:35
  Here's that tweet. The real question is, and
• 14:38
  obviously we are starting to see something that you do see in a
• 14:44
  bear market constantly, which is you start to see the bears come
• 14:48
  out. You start to see people doing
• 14:50
  their victory laps of, you know, these bit corners.
• 14:53
  I told them they should have sold here we are.
• 14:55
  It's going to go lower, but what really is happening is just,
• 14:59
  it's just normal bear market activity.
• 15:01
  Like the bear market didn't kill Bitcoin.
• 15:04
  It just really shook everyone out of Bitcoin.
• 15:07
  It really, you know, as we covered a lot for over a year at
• 15:11
  this point, it, it shook out all the tourists here.
• 15:13
  The only people in Bitcoin is the true believers here.
• 15:18
  And I actually saw an interesting chart and I wasn't
• 15:20
  going to bring it up today because it was in terms of alt
• 15:23
  coins and, and you know, defy and shit coinery.
• 15:26
  But there was a, an interesting chart where it was showing the
• 15:29
  amount of wallets and the amount of accounts on the defy shit
• 15:33
  coin platforms. And it's like fell off a Cliff
• 15:37
  and someone tweeted like, there's literally only 100 of us
• 15:41
  left buying Bitcoin right now. So again, it didn't destroy
• 15:44
  Bitcoin. The bear market didn't kill
• 15:46
  Bitcoin. The quantum FUD, all of the FUD
• 15:49
  we've seen hasn't killed Bitcoin.
• 15:52
  The only people left in Bitcoin are the true, what's it diamond
• 15:56
  hand believers. The only people left in Bitcoin
• 15:59
  is you guys. It's us.
• 16:01
  It's the people that really believe in Bitcoin that have
• 16:03
  understood Bitcoin that maybe have, I don't know, speed run
• 16:08
  their Bitcoin education. And with the draw down in the
• 16:12
  price, they really had to understand what Bitcoin was.
• 16:15
  So again, we're not out of the woods yet.
• 16:19
  There still could potentially be another draw down, but we are
• 16:22
  starting to see some indicators here that are tentatively
• 16:26
  bullish 1 Of course, maybe we're maybe the, you know, I don't
• 16:31
  even know what they called it now.
• 16:32
  Mission operation war in the Middle East might be over, which
• 16:36
  is going to generally wipe the uncertainty in the macro
• 16:39
  markets. We're seeing the economy expand
• 16:42
  via the ISMPMI numbers. We're seeing Bitcoin just ended
• 16:47
  A5 month losing streak, which doesn't necessarily mean that
• 16:50
  this is a bottom reversal, though.
• 16:53
  It was one of those like reverse hammer, which is usually pretty
• 16:57
  bullish, but it could it could just be, hey, you know, April
• 17:01
  might be a could be a bull trap and we might see some some more
• 17:06
  of a draw down. We might see another leg, but
• 17:09
  you are starting to see some some bullish.
• 17:11
  And of course, like I said, you know, the whales are coming back
• 17:14
  on chain. Obviously I think we will need
• 17:17
  to continue to watch the on chain metrics from the whales
• 17:23
  and if we do see a a very strong move and even more aggressive
• 17:28
  move or rather maybe a prolonged aggressive buying spree from
• 17:32
  Wales, then that could mark that we are coming close to finding a
• 17:39
  bottom here. Again, bottoms don't happen
• 17:42
  overnight. Bottoms do take a little while
• 17:45
  to form, but we just got maybe the first data point to show
• 17:49
  that, hey, maybe the bottom is forming.
• 17:53
  Maybe we're just looking for any bullish sign right now because
• 17:56
  we've been so demoralized, you know, that we're so tired of
• 17:59
  winning. And I'm like, I look, I can't
• 18:02
  take any more winning. If this is winning, I can't take
• 18:05
  any more winning right now. But you are starting to see,
• 18:08
  hey, some, some, some. There's still some life left.
• 18:12
  OK, it's not full to spare yet. I think maybe we have passed
• 18:16
  despair. I, I think actually shouts out
• 18:19
  to Ron. Yesterday he said something and
• 18:22
  it's stuck in my brain. He's like the 1010 crash.
• 18:25
  The 1010 liquidation event was a big enough capitulation and here
• 18:30
  we are at 68 K. We saw 60K obviously I think the
• 18:35
  month of April. By the end of this month we will
• 18:39
  have a better idea of where we are.
• 18:42
  If we Wick down very quickly in the beginning of this month,
• 18:46
  then that can make the case that we'll climb up towards the end
• 18:49
  of the month. If we wake up high in April at
• 18:52
  the beginning of this month, then that's probably a good case
• 18:56
  for us having kind of a bleed out the rest of April.
• 19:00
  So look, I'm emphing a little a little little life back into me.
• 19:05
  Even even Luke starting to get a little bullish with me.
• 19:08
  He got a little bearish on us. I know Niko's going to say
• 19:12
  literally we just said it before the show.
• 19:14
  I don't think you, I don't think you realize what I meant by
• 19:17
  we're going to have to survive for six months.
• 19:20
  So look, there is some signs here that are giving some, some
• 19:24
  some hope to the markets, general markets, macro markets,
• 19:28
  all the markets right now. There is some signs showing
• 19:31
  maybe we're seeing a little life in Bitcoin.
• 19:34
  But again, 2020's hindsight, so we'll only know in within the
• 19:39
  next, you know, 3:00-ish month before we can really make a
• 19:42
  definitive move. But the huge take away here, and
• 19:46
  I'm not much of an RSRSI guy, but I did see some interesting
• 19:50
  charts here saying that, you know, historically at the
• 19:53
  current RSI, which I think it's like 30 ish 33 or something like
• 19:58
  that. It's it's a, it's a great buy.
• 20:01
  Yes, you might be able to get a better discount soon
• 20:04
  potentially. Yes, maybe the price is going to
• 20:07
  go up, but if you are continuously buying right now,
• 20:11
  you are not going to be mad about these buys, which is what
• 20:16
  the name of the game is that we tell you every single day.
• 20:18
  Just keep accumulating Bitcoin. Just make sure you have more
• 20:21
  Bitcoin, you know, this month than you did last month.
• 20:24
  However, your finances work. But there is life, guys.
• 20:27
  All right, there's some life here.
• 20:30
  Not going to go full bull card on you guys.
• 20:32
  But hey, you guys have been yelling at me lately.
• 20:35
  It's like, man, simply Bitcoin's gotten so negative and I'm like,
• 20:38
  dude, it's a bear market. Like I I'm only, I'm only human
• 20:42
  here. I'm not a robot.
• 20:43
  I know it is Optimus Fields, but even I get burnt out a little
• 20:48
  bit. Even I get demoralized here.
• 20:50
  So there are some bullish signs guys, but we're not out of the
• 20:54
  woods yet. Just, you know, don't, don't,
• 20:58
  don't blow all of your powder right now.
• 21:01
  Don't blow all of your capital right now.
• 21:03
  Just start to get, get yourself in position.
• 21:05
  If you do have some capital on the sidelines, make sure you're
• 21:08
  acquiring some Bitcoin because what we're in an interesting
• 21:12
  time right now. Could go up, it could go down.
• 21:15
  That's my TA for the day. That's my TA for the day.
• 21:18
  Might go up, might go down, I have no clue, but I would still
• 21:23
  be buying. I think it's a good buy.
• 21:24
  I, I think as we've shown and been following along for a
• 21:28
  while, Bitcoin has in many ways, I wouldn't say completely been
• 21:35
  de risked, but the general sentiment around Bitcoin right
• 21:42
  now is probably the best time to be buying.
• 21:44
  Right now. Literally everyone is sort of
• 21:47
  embracing Bitcoin, trying to launch Bitcoin products and I I
• 21:51
  just don't think people should be scared of buying Bitcoin
• 21:53
  right now. You might catch a little knives,
• 21:55
  but you're still getting a good buy anyways.
• 21:59
  I know I flip-flopped on my TA here today Nico.
• 22:01
  I did get a bullish bearish case.
• 22:03
  Now I I think now let's get to the real doomer take here, which
• 22:07
  is anyway, before you go full doomer, I know you're going to
• 22:13
  go full bear on me. But what do you think of the
• 22:16
  kind of the indicators that we did see, you know, five months
• 22:19
  losing streak done. We're seeing Wales come back.
• 22:22
  Have you been following along on the Trump?
• 22:25
  I don't even know flip flopping on the, you know, end of the
• 22:29
  operation in Iran. Like what's your general
• 22:33
  sentiment right now bro? Yeah, I I mean the let let me
• 22:37
  comment on the Strait of Hormuz and the whole Iran situation.
• 22:41
  So essentially, you know, Trump made a very big bet and the bet
• 22:47
  was essentially, you know, if we take out the Iranian leadership,
• 22:52
  you know, the country, you know, we'll have a regime change and,
• 22:56
  and things will, you know, things will shake up, right?
• 22:59
  And I think he was emboldened after the operation in
• 23:03
  Venezuela. I, I would even make the
• 23:04
  argument that potentially the operation in Venezuela like
• 23:11
  created kind of like this, like, you know, it, it, it hung out a
• 23:14
  carrot for President Trump. And it was like, look, we can
• 23:18
  implement A regime change. And then once we take out the
• 23:21
  leader, you know, we can essentially get this country to,
• 23:25
  to do our bidding, right? And in, in Venezuela's case that
• 23:31
  that did happen, right? So they took out Maduro.
• 23:36
  They, you know, they arrested him.
• 23:38
  Now he's currently facing trial in New York.
• 23:41
  And the leadership in Venezuela is scared and they're going
• 23:45
  along with with U.S. policy. So Venezuela is currently
• 23:50
  exporting oil to the United States.
• 23:52
  And it seems like things are opening up in Venezuela.
• 23:55
  I think that emboldened Trump to think, hey, listen, if we do
• 24:00
  something very similar in Iran, you know, take out the
• 24:03
  leadership, which they did, perhaps, you know, that is going
• 24:08
  to get Iran to be a little bit, you know, to go along with US
• 24:12
  foreign policy. I think there was a
• 24:15
  miscalculation, right? Venezuela is very, very similar
• 24:20
  culturally to the United States. Not identical, but very similar,
• 24:25
  same religion. Baseball is the main sport of
• 24:28
  Venezuela. It's very close.
• 24:31
  Miami. There's a huge Venezuelan
• 24:33
  population just in Miami alone. Iran is ideologically opposed
• 24:41
  and entrenched, right? Like, I mean you saw what
• 24:43
  happened in Afghanistan, they withstood a 20 year siege, so
• 24:49
  really or a 20 year occupation. So thinking that one is going to
• 24:56
  do with like 1 like Venezuela is going to be very similar to
• 25:01
  Iran, I think was very unwise to say the least.
• 25:06
  And then not to mention the fact that, you know, most of the
• 25:12
  world's shipping or a lot of the world's shipping and a lot of
• 25:14
  the oil shipping goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 25:18
  The Strait of Hormuz is this very narrow passage, you know,
• 25:23
  between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East and, and Iran.
• 25:28
  And essentially it allows this asymmetric warfare to be
• 25:32
  conducted by Iran where literally they can spend, you
• 25:36
  know, it's like 20-30, forty, $1000 on these drones.
• 25:41
  And all of a sudden, you know, all of oil shipping is
• 25:47
  essentially grinding to a halt because no insurers want to
• 25:51
  insure these oil tankers passing to that through that narrow
• 25:55
  straight. Now, what's the United States
• 25:58
  going to do? Are they going to escalate,
• 26:00
  right? Are you going to, are you going
• 26:01
  to have boots on the ground in Iran to try to stop this?
• 26:04
  It's asymmetric warfare. You're going to find yourself
• 26:07
  in, in, in, in Afghanistan, 2 point O situation.
• 26:12
  I think magnitude's worse, right?
• 26:15
  So again, I think it was a miscalculation by the Trump
• 26:19
  administration. And now they find themselves in
• 26:22
  a catch 22 type of situation because it's like, OK, do they
• 26:26
  just basically throw up their hands and say, you know what,
• 26:29
  like, operation is done? It's like, you know, there was
• 26:32
  no regime change. There was no change in attitude
• 26:35
  from the Iranian regime. In fact, you entrenched them.
• 26:39
  You, you, you literally played into the narrative that they've
• 26:43
  been telling their people about the United States for 20 years,
• 26:48
  right? So it's a, it's a terrible
• 26:50
  situation. And and not to mention that, not
• 26:52
  to mention that all of the US allies in the region are
• 26:57
  basically like, hey, United States protect me.
• 27:01
  The United States can't because, again, it's asymmetric.
• 27:03
  War. Well, also they're saying we
• 27:05
  don't want to. We don't.
• 27:06
  Want to protect you either no no, but it's not only that I'm
• 27:09
  talking about the Gulf states right so like you know they're
• 27:12
  spending twenty $30,000 per drone.
• 27:15
  Each interceptor missile is like four $5,000,000.
• 27:19
  A lot of these drones are like, you know, in a mountain, right?
• 27:22
  So there's no way that, you know, the United States is going
• 27:24
  to be able to, you know, essentially destroy those
• 27:26
  targets. So the Trump administration is
• 27:29
  basically caught in this catch 22 situation where, of course,
• 27:33
  they don't want the energy markets to be spooked, to
• 27:36
  continue to be spooked because again, that's going to cause
• 27:39
  downstream effects to the economy, potentially leading
• 27:42
  into a recession. And that's essentially what's
• 27:45
  going on right now, right? And to go back to to your
• 27:50
  earlier point, it's like they kind of have to walk it back.
• 27:53
  They don't have a choice but to walk it back.
• 27:55
  If you have a prolonged conflict with Iran, that is going to be
• 28:01
  very, very bad for energy markets and US allies are not
• 28:05
  going to be happy with it either because it's going to be more
• 28:08
  higher energy prices for everybody, right?
• 28:11
  Specifically if you're not a net producer like the United States.
• 28:14
  So again, like it's, it's a terrible situation.
• 28:18
  I thought it I was against the Iran war from the beginning.
• 28:21
  I know I got a lot of shit for this.
• 28:24
  There was like Spotify comments, There's people in the comments
• 28:27
  section. We did a whole show intro on the
• 28:30
  Iranian war and how Trump betrayed his base in a way
• 28:34
  because he literally said, hey, no more forever wars, right?
• 28:39
  And I felt very strongly about that, not only because he did
• 28:43
  promise no more forever wars, but because, again, Iran is not
• 28:48
  Venezuela. Iran has a population.
• 28:50
  I think it's like 200 million people.
• 28:53
  It's no, no, it's 90 million. I'm pretty sure it's 90 million.
• 28:56
  No, I think it's like 200 million.
• 28:57
  I will Fact Check it. I'm pretty sure it's 90.
• 29:00
  I think it's 90 million. And population, dude, it's, it's
• 29:03
  a huge country, 90,000,093 million, right, You're right, 93
• 29:07
  million people. It's three to, it's three times
• 29:11
  the size of Iraq. They're ideologically opposed.
• 29:14
  They're militantly ideologically opposed.
• 29:18
  It's a completely different situation than Venezuela.
• 29:21
  And I think it was a miscalculation by his
• 29:24
  administration that I think is going to cost him the midterms.
• 29:27
  And then I also think that again, if they don't figure out
• 29:32
  this situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it could be it, it could
• 29:37
  mean very bad things for just global energy markets in the 1st
• 29:41
  place. And Iran again, has a total
• 29:44
  advantage here. They can keep producing these
• 29:46
  very cheap drones. And because the straight, I
• 29:49
  think it's only like 20 miles wide, yeah, something like that,
• 29:52
  20 miles wide. And it's and it's closest thing
• 29:58
  again, the old, the oil tankers and all these energy companies
• 30:03
  are not going to risk an oil tanker to go through that little
• 30:06
  straight. They're not going to do it.
• 30:08
  So the administration is kind of stuck between a rock and a hard
• 30:12
  place. So are we, what do you think the
• 30:14
  announcement's going to be tonight?
• 30:15
  Are we pulling out or or is this a a fake out?
• 30:18
  I think they're going to announce victory.
• 30:21
  They don't have another choice. It's not victory at all.
• 30:25
  You could say that they took out the leadership, but it's like,
• 30:27
  OK, you took out the leadership. There's gonna be people that
• 30:30
  step up and. Replace like 7 people deep.
• 30:33
  They're gonna step up and replace them, and their stance
• 30:37
  on the United States is not gonna change.
• 30:39
  I would say their stance on the United States is gonna be
• 30:41
  emboldened. I think their incentive to
• 30:46
  develop nuclear weapons is gonna increase tenfold.
• 30:49
  You don't see the United States attacking North Korea.
• 30:52
  Why do you think North Korea has the same type of messaging that
• 30:56
  Iran has, which is like, look like we don't like the United
• 30:59
  States? Cause Kim Jong Un has aura.
• 31:01
  Kim Jong Un, not only not only does the guy have aura, but like
• 31:05
  also the guy has nuclear weapons.
• 31:07
  So I think this is, this is in, I think Iran's gonna be
• 31:11
  emboldened to continue to try to develop this nuclear weapons
• 31:15
  program because they, they're gonna see it as like, look, if
• 31:18
  we don't do this, like we are regime is literally in threat of
• 31:25
  surviving, right? Like this is like a, this is
• 31:28
  like survival for them. Like if they get toppled, like
• 31:31
  that's bad news, right? So they're in survival.
• 31:34
  They're pressed into a corner and they're going to use any
• 31:37
  type of leverage in order to maintain any type of power.
• 31:40
  And the leverage that they have is the Strait of Hormuz.
• 31:43
  So, you know, and, and it doesn't matter how powerful the
• 31:46
  United States military is, you know, it's a 30,000, it's a
• 31:50
  $30,000 drone, it's a $40,000 drone.
• 31:52
  It's asymmetric upside there, right?
• 31:55
  And the interceptor missiles what cost like 5 to $10 million
• 31:58
  each. So that's kind of like the TLDR
• 32:01
  on the energy markets and you know, the the situation with the
• 32:06
  war. What?
• 32:08
  Trump has no choice but to end this quickly because if this
• 32:13
  gets prolonged, the energy situation will get worse.
• 32:18
  It will get worse. I can't emphasize that enough.
• 32:21
  So Iran basically has all these, has all basically the energy
• 32:25
  markets, you know, held hostage and the United States can't
• 32:30
  really do anything about it. And that makes the United States
• 32:33
  look weak. So are they going to escalate,
• 32:36
  put boots on the ground? I mean, that would be a
• 32:39
  catastrophe from a political perspective.
• 32:43
  I don't think the United States wants a war there.
• 32:45
  We are going to see casualties to the likes of the Iraq war.
• 32:49
  I don't think anybody wants to see that.
• 32:51
  I think this was a total miscalculation by the Trump
• 32:53
  administration. I think the administrative state
• 32:56
  pushed for this. I think Washington pushed for
• 32:59
  this. I think they love war and yeah,
• 33:02
  and this is where we are so. But what's your take on the
• 33:05
  markets pricing in it's, it's basically over.
• 33:09
  So I think I think that's like the interesting view for for all
• 33:12
  of us here. I think that my perspective on,
• 33:16
  you know, like Bitcoin recovering somewhat is I think
• 33:21
  that we're, we're essentially going through a traditional bear
• 33:25
  market. This is what's what's happening.
• 33:27
  And I think it's playing out and I think it's going to play out
• 33:30
  over a period of time over these next couple of months.
• 33:34
  And I also think that the S&P is, you know, is going to be
• 33:39
  involved in this too. I mean, I have a video for you
• 33:41
  guys that I'm going to play for you guys during the numbers
• 33:45
  where Warren Buffett is getting interviewed, one of his latest
• 33:48
  interviews on CNBC. And they asked him like, hey,
• 33:51
  you're sitting on like a a ridiculous amount of cash.
• 33:56
  And he point blank says, like, I'm not trying to, I'm not
• 33:59
  looking to make 5 to 15%. So that implies that he thinks
• 34:04
  that the markets are going to go lower right now because Bitcoin
• 34:07
  is so tied in with the traditional financial system
• 34:10
  these days and traditional markets these days.
• 34:13
  I think that as the S&P goes lower, I think that I think it's
• 34:19
  going to take Bitcoin down with it.
• 34:21
  Now, the last thing I'll say is that I think eventually Lynn
• 34:28
  Alden and Larry Leppard's thesis, specifically Larry
• 34:33
  Leppard's thesis of the big print, is going to come to
• 34:36
  fruition. And this is something that
• 34:38
  Arthur Hayes talked about when the Iranian war started.
• 34:43
  He said that eventually this was going to lead to this was going
• 34:49
  to force the Federal Reserve to start printing money.
• 34:54
  And then he basically did a historical analysis where he
• 34:57
  showed that every single other conflict that the United States
• 35:02
  has been involved in in the Middle East eventually has led
• 35:06
  to the Federal Reserve printing money, right.
• 35:10
  But I think that this, this one's a little bit different
• 35:12
  because unlike Iraq and unlike, you know, Libya and all these
• 35:17
  other countries, the amount of the amount of energy, the amount
• 35:22
  of oil that's going through this straight is tremendous.
• 35:27
  And that gives Iran a tremendous amount of leverage here where I,
• 35:33
  I just, I don't, I don't see, AAAAI, don't see a solution here
• 35:38
  where the United States can claim victory.
• 35:40
  I think that they are going to claim victory tonight.
• 35:43
  I think that's part of his speech.
• 35:45
  But are they really victorious? Dude as long as the markets feel
• 35:51
  like they are, that's all that matters bro.
• 35:54
  My opinion. Deploy the capital pump my bags.
• 35:57
  Look, I think, I think the, the, the silver lining here is that
• 36:01
  the more this gets elongated and the, the, the longer this lasts,
• 36:05
  the higher the probability that something will break.
• 36:09
  As soon as something breaks. We know the game plan.
• 36:12
  We've seen it in 2008, right? We've seen it whenever, you
• 36:15
  know, we saw it during the pandemic.
• 36:17
  What are they gonna do? They're gonna turn on the money
• 36:20
  printers, right? They're gonna lower interest
• 36:22
  rates. They lower interest rates, they
• 36:24
  turn on the money printers. That ultimately is good for
• 36:28
  Bitcoin price appreciation, right?
• 36:30
  You know, but it, it sucks that, you know, it has to amount to
• 36:34
  some type of global kind. It has to amount to some type of
• 36:37
  conflict and it has to amount to, you know, war and all that
• 36:41
  stuff. This is why we were so vocal
• 36:43
  about it when this started. Like I saw it as an ultimate
• 36:46
  betrayal to the base. You know, this is, we were, we
• 36:49
  were not promised this. We we specifically Trump ran on
• 36:53
  the reason he got so famous in 2016 is he dared to do something
• 36:59
  that no other, you know, politician before him did, which
• 37:03
  was he basically called out the war and I the war and I Iraq.
• 37:08
  And he said that it was a mistake.
• 37:10
  You know, 10 years later, you know, 2026 George W Bush 2 point
• 37:17
  O right. Of course it's not as bad.
• 37:19
  There's not a full-fledged invasion, but at once again, you
• 37:23
  find the United States in another for in another war in
• 37:27
  the Middle East, right. And, and I, I, I just think
• 37:30
  that, you know, this leads to back-to-back to what we were
• 37:34
  talking about when, when this conflict initially broke out.
• 37:38
  I've come full circle and this I do give Opti credit where I've
• 37:43
  lost full faith in our ability for us to actually change
• 37:49
  something through the traditional system of like vote
• 37:56
  for, vote for team Blue and vote for team Red.
• 37:59
  I think that if we actually want change, we have to opt out of
• 38:05
  the system entirely. And then you do that by buying
• 38:08
  Bitcoin and putting into self custody.
• 38:10
  If enough of us do it, the system will actually change on
• 38:14
  itself because the Fiat system needs you.
• 38:16
  It needs people using Fiat, actively transacting in Fiat.
• 38:20
  If 3040% of the population are saving in Bitcoin and
• 38:26
  transacting in Bitcoin, I think that's really when you're going
• 38:29
  to start to feel. I think that's really when
• 38:31
  Washington is really going to start to feel real pressure.
• 38:35
  But up until that point, I don't think anything's going to
• 38:37
  change. And if you guys want to know why
• 38:39
  the Genius Act got passed so fast, it is because it
• 38:46
  essentially the Genius Act allows the propagation of the
• 38:50
  United States dollar around the world via stablecoins, which
• 38:54
  again, you, you can look at this, you can look at it in, in,
• 38:57
  in two perspectives, right? From the humanitarian
• 39:00
  perspective, I think that's fantastic.
• 39:02
  You have people in countries with double digit inflation that
• 39:05
  now have access to U.S. dollars. That's fantastic.
• 39:08
  That's really great. But at the same time, it, it
• 39:12
  allows DC to continue, you know, to continue printing money
• 39:17
  because more and more people are using the US dollar.
• 39:19
  So wait, hey, Nico, I'm kind of reminded of remember, remember
• 39:24
  that little scenario we had a while ago called Opti Gate 2.0
• 39:30
  where I said it doesn't matter which president is in there,
• 39:32
  they're going to print money. Guys, we finally came around.
• 39:36
  We finally got. It, I mean, it's worse than
• 39:38
  that. I mean, it's worse than that.
• 39:39
  It's. Like wait, wait, Opti is always
• 39:42
  right. Opti is always I'll give you.
• 39:44
  I'll give you this one. I think you're right on this
• 39:46
  one, but I, I think I think it's worse than that.
• 39:49
  It's regardless of which president gets elected into
• 39:53
  office, no actual real policy change happens, right?
• 40:00
  Like in the beginning of the year, you had doge in there, you
• 40:04
  had Trump basically saying end the Fed.
• 40:07
  You basically saying you him saying you know we got to end
• 40:10
  income tax. You basically had him saying,
• 40:13
  hey, we're gonna audit Fort Knox.
• 40:16
  Yeah, whatever. Other than that, whatever
• 40:17
  happened? To.
• 40:19
  That right, we're even gonna audit on the Bitcoin.
• 40:20
  There was there was also I was gonna I was about to mention
• 40:23
  that there was also an executive order that specifically
• 40:27
  mentioned specifically mentioned that that Trump ordered the US
• 40:35
  government to audit and find out how much Bitcoin the US
• 40:40
  government had. We just had David Sachs, the
• 40:43
  crypto and AI czar. His term just ended.
• 40:47
  You have Bo Hines, he's out of the administration.
• 40:50
  You have Senator Lummus who's not running for re election.
• 40:55
  Listen, I love that he freed Ross.
• 40:57
  I love that he ended Operation Choke .2 point O, but Clarity
• 41:01
  Act is still not across the finish line and we're there.
• 41:05
  Did you We're gonna talk about that.
• 41:07
  We're. Gonna talk about that, but it's
• 41:08
  down to 51% on polymarket. Yeah, whatever.
• 41:11
  It's down to 51. Percent it's.
• 41:14
  Down to 51% on polymarket and they're burning daylight.
• 41:17
  Like I mean the midterms are coming up in November.
• 41:20
  If they don't get if they don't get it passed sooner rather than
• 41:23
  later, the probability of Clarity act even getting passed
• 41:27
  is extremely low. Dude, if it doesn't get passed,
• 41:29
  they keep saying they're pushing it back.
• 41:31
  They're saying end of April now. And that was the major piece of
• 41:37
  legislation for the Trump administration.
• 41:40
  That was the piece of legislation that would actually
• 41:43
  enshrine into law. But again, it wasn't perfect,
• 41:47
  but protections on self custody, That was the crypto bill, the
• 41:52
  genius. The genius act was bill.
• 41:54
  It was a bill on stable coins, but the crypto bill,
• 41:58
  specifically the Clarity Act, which we had Frank Holmes, the
• 42:03
  executive chairman of Hive Digital Technologies.
• 42:05
  He basically, yeah, they were bullish.
• 42:07
  He said, listen, they were optimistic about it getting
• 42:10
  passed. And then Frank Holmes said
• 42:12
  verbatim, if this gets passed, we're going to see $250,000
• 42:16
  Bitcoin, right? So, you know, I, I'm, I'm, well,
• 42:22
  I'm, I'm a little bit unmotivated.
• 42:25
  Yeah, I'm. Fertile I, I don't want to keep
• 42:29
  this segment going because we've already been going for 40
• 42:31
  minutes. But I did see a good tweet this
• 42:32
  morning, Nico. And since you said 250, it kind
• 42:35
  of reminded me of it. Remember we were talking about
• 42:39
  Monday, the whole giving Coinbase permission to
• 42:44
  rehypothecate. I saw someone saying, and I, I'm
• 42:46
  pretty sure it was a big name person.
• 42:48
  And they're like, if there was no rehypothecation in Bitcoin
• 42:53
  happening, we'd be at 250K today, which is interesting that
• 42:57
  that's kind of everyone's numbers right now.
• 42:59
  But let let's keep it going. Nico, we, we went, we went super
• 43:02
  long on this segment. If you guys are enjoying the
• 43:05
  show, seems like Rumble's loving it.
• 43:07
  I already got a bunch of disagreements of course in the
• 43:09
  chat. Disagreements is good.
• 43:12
  We like disagreements. And let's check out the the
• 43:14
  YouTube chat. We'll, we'll get to it during
• 43:16
  the number segment, but during the number segment, you guys are
• 43:18
  going to want to stay tuned because I got a video of Warren
• 43:21
  Buffett basically saying the choir part out loud where he
• 43:24
  thinks markets are going. And then during the news
• 43:26
  segment, we're gonna have an update for you guys regarding
• 43:29
  the clarity act regarding news. So we're gonna be, we're gonna
• 43:33
  be talking about all of that and then let's see what we get to
• 43:35
  during the culture. Anyways, ladies and gentlemen,
• 43:38
  we're gonna be right back in just a little bit.
• 43:40
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• 46:22
  off. Let's get into today's numbers,
• 46:24
  shall we? At the time of recording, the
• 46:26
  Bitcoin price is $68,440. SAT's per dollar 1462 block
• 46:34
  height 943,247 Realized monetary inflation .83% Market cap 1.37
• 46:42
  trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap 4.56% Percentage
• 46:46
  issued 95.28% decline from all time high.
• 46:50
  We're at 45.8%. So we're if you're buying
• 46:55
  Bitcoin right now, you're getting it at a 45% discount.
• 46:59
  All right, everybody, let's get into today's video.
• 47:01
  Warren Buffett just had a recent interview shout out to TFTC.
• 47:06
  They just reposted it and Warren Buffett is sitting on 350
• 47:13
  billion dollars worth of cash, $350 billion.
• 47:20
  And let's take a look at what he says when the reporter asks him
• 47:24
  about it. Well, let's talk about that.
• 47:27
  The market has come down substantially.
• 47:29
  You've not substantially. Well, you've got both the Dow
• 47:32
  and the NASDAQ in correction territory.
• 47:34
  It's the worst performance on a quarterly basis for stocks in
• 47:37
  about four years. Do things look cheaper to you?
• 47:41
  No. 3. Times since I've took taken over
• 47:47
  Berkshire, it's gone down more than 50%.
• 47:53
  I mean if you look at the markets of oh, the worst
• 47:57
  probably was the 2007 eight period, although there was that
• 48:02
  one Monday when you had 21% in a day.
• 48:05
  I mean, this is nothing. I mean it did.
• 48:11
  This is nothing to make you get excited and think there's huge
• 48:13
  valuations if they're 5 or 6% cheaper.
• 48:17
  That doesn't we. We aren't.
• 48:20
  In it to. Make 5 or 6%.
• 48:21
  I mean, but all right guys, I don't know how many this was.
• 48:34
  This is like literally one of the the most legendary investors
• 48:37
  of all time. Yeah, who's known, who's known
• 48:42
  for being extremely disciplined. And, you know, he has quotes
• 48:46
  basically, basically saying, like, look, the difference
• 48:49
  between, you know, a good investor and a bad investor is
• 48:51
  like patience. I'm, I'm paraphrasing here, but
• 48:54
  still holds true. And he is literally telling
• 48:59
  everybody when the reporter is like, look, we're in correction
• 49:03
  territory. This is 5 to 10%, and he
• 49:06
  literally says that's nothing. And then he gives 2.
• 49:11
  He literally goes back in his life and he's like, you know,
• 49:16
  throughout my years in Berkshire, there's been three
• 49:19
  times where, you know, we saw a 50% correction or more.
• 49:27
  I don't, I don't know. You don't really need to read
• 49:30
  between the lines to interpret what he's telling you in terms
• 49:33
  of where he thinks the markets are going.
• 49:36
  Perhaps the Iranian conflict was the catalyst that really started
• 49:40
  this. But at the end, let's focus on
• 49:43
  the end of this, right? Like what happens at the end of
• 49:47
  if markets continue to correct, right?
• 49:50
  You know what happens? Larry Leopard wrote a big book
• 49:55
  on it. They print an F ton of money.
• 49:58
  In fact, you know, Satoshi's quote, Chancellor on the brink
• 50:03
  of the second bailout for banks talking about, you know, and
• 50:05
  this was back in 2008, 2009, what, what Warren Buffett was
• 50:08
  referring to at the end, you know, the Federal Reserve, you
• 50:12
  know, it's like, oh, we're not going to lower interest rates
• 50:15
  and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 50:15
  No, no, no, no, no, they lower them extremely quickly and then
• 50:19
  they start printing a boatload of money.
• 50:21
  That's what they're going to do, right?
• 50:23
  So, you know, again, I, I, I don't know what bigger
• 50:29
  indication you can get in terms of, you know, where at least
• 50:35
  Warren Buffett thinks the markets are going.
• 50:37
  The markets are correlated to Bitcoin.
• 50:40
  They've been acting correlated to Bitcoin.
• 50:42
  I would say big if the markets, you know, dump 5% Bitcoin dumps
• 50:48
  15%, right. So if we do have a 50%
• 50:53
  correction in the stock market, which would be absolutely
• 50:55
  bonkers, you know, I could see Bitcoin going down with it.
• 51:00
  But the, the, the, the silver lining here is, is that again,
• 51:06
  if you have cash on the sidelines, you are ready to buy
• 51:10
  the dip, You're ready to buy discounted Bitcoin.
• 51:13
  Also, if you know, this is obviously going to lead to the
• 51:24
  Federal Reserve printing more money, which whenever that
• 51:29
  happens, Bitcoin goes to, I mean, even the, even the shit
• 51:33
  coins, they, they moon, right? Everything moons.
• 51:37
  So, you know, at least that's the silver lining here.
• 51:41
  And I'm going to tell you guys what I told you guys yesterday
• 51:44
  is your job. Your only job right now is to
• 51:49
  survive from right now until the end of the year.
• 51:54
  That's it. That's all you got to do.
• 51:56
  That's your job, right? And if you're able to do that,
• 52:00
  you're very well positioned heading into 202720282029, which
• 52:06
  I think I think are going to be fantastic years for Bitcoin, the
• 52:11
  halving, the halving cycles have not broken.
• 52:15
  So it's, it would be, you know, it'd be unwise to think
• 52:19
  otherwise. And I think that we're going to
• 52:24
  have, you know, explosive price action heading into
• 52:28
  202720282029. And I think that's really when
• 52:31
  you're going to see the 250K300K400K type of price
• 52:36
  targets. That's, those are fantastic
• 52:39
  returns. But you got to survive.
• 52:40
  You got to survive. And Bitcoin's been here many
• 52:43
  times. I've, this is my third bear
• 52:45
  market, you know, and I always remember that during the bear
• 52:50
  markets, those are the most opportune times for you to build
• 52:54
  your stack, right? You get Bitcoin at discounted
• 52:58
  prices, All your friends and family stop caring.
• 53:01
  They start asking, are you OK? Those are very good bottom
• 53:04
  indicators, by the way. And then yesterday's show, we
• 53:08
  actually focused on so many bottom indicators.
• 53:11
  We, we kept telling you guys of how many companies essentially
• 53:15
  were capitulating and they were essentially selling Bitcoin at
• 53:19
  distress. They didn't want to sell
• 53:21
  Bitcoin, but they were selling, they're forced to sell Bitcoin
• 53:24
  just to keep the lights on or to service some of those loans,
• 53:28
  right? Speaking of loans, these
• 53:33
  moments, by the way, ladies and gentlemen, if you're in
• 53:36
  desperate need of liquidity either to grow your business or
• 53:39
  whatever, these moments when Bitcoin is 50% down, 60% down,
• 53:45
  70% down historically tend to be the best times to take out a
• 53:52
  Bitcoin collateralized loan if you want to.
• 53:54
  And of course, that comes with an asterisk of don't be
• 53:58
  irresponsible with it. Don't put 60% of your Bitcoin
• 54:04
  into a loan. That's a very bad idea.
• 54:06
  But 5 to 10%, you know, you'll be fine.
• 54:09
  If the price keeps going down, you'll be able to put up more
• 54:12
  collateral, right? So anyways, let's see what
• 54:15
  happens for over the next six months.
• 54:17
  You guys have got Warren Buffett's opinion.
• 54:20
  And I think that Opti said a very intelligent comment at the
• 54:25
  beginning of the show never happens, where he said, you
• 54:29
  know, if things don't change, like what, what would change my
• 54:35
  mind in all this? We haven't talked about this.
• 54:38
  I want to talk about this. What, what would change my mind
• 54:41
  in all this is if we saw a huge reversal in Bitcoin.
• 54:45
  So if Bitcoin went above, back above 100K and if nothing
• 54:52
  happened for the next three or four months, like if we
• 54:55
  essentially chop solidate and we stay in this price region for
• 55:00
  the next three to four months, that's where I'm going to start
• 55:04
  thinking, Hey, I think we, we actually might have, we, we, we
• 55:08
  might have bottomed like we actually might have bottomed
• 55:10
  right. So that's really what I'm going
• 55:12
  to be looking for the next three to four months.
• 55:15
  And obviously, you know, because Bitcoin is this huge asset now
• 55:19
  because it's, you know, a $1.5 trillion asset.
• 55:23
  And again, it, it, the global, it, it's definitely integrated
• 55:27
  with the global of, with, with financial markets, geopolitical
• 55:31
  events like the Iran conflict will have an impact on Bitcoin's
• 55:35
  price. That wasn't the case back in the
• 55:38
  day. Back in the day, Bitcoin didn't
• 55:40
  give a flying F about anything. That's not the type of asset
• 55:44
  that it is today, right? So just wanted to put that on
• 55:47
  your guys's radar. Anyways, guys, stick around.
• 55:49
  Wait, wait, can I add one, one thing real quick, because I have
• 55:52
  been mentioning this, this idea that where we currently are in
• 55:58
  the kind of global macro markets is a lot of people are sitting
• 56:02
  on the sidelines. And I think what Warren Buffett
• 56:05
  said, obviously if you read into what he said, he's basically
• 56:08
  expecting an even bigger decline in the kind of, you know,
• 56:13
  inequities and, and just the global markets, which we have
• 56:16
  been hearing a lot of conversations.
• 56:19
  I, I can in particularly, in particular think of Jamie Dimon
• 56:26
  saying if this Operation War mission, whatever you want to
• 56:30
  call it, is prolonged, then we might be getting into a global
• 56:33
  recession. And that's what everyone's kind
• 56:35
  of been talking about. And that, that seems to be
• 56:38
  Warren Buffett's sentiment here. He's like, look, 5-6 percent
• 56:42
  correction is not what I'm looking at.
• 56:43
  I'm looking at a deeper correction.
• 56:45
  And This is why he's in cash. But the only reason I'm, I'm
• 56:48
  highlighting that again is because I have been mentioning
• 56:51
  this and I, I haven't really emphasized this point.
• 56:54
  But again, maybe for us Bitcoiners, we don't really care
• 56:58
  what Warren Buffett says. I, I see someone, someone in the
• 57:01
  chat said, basically, if Warren Buffett doesn't change his
• 57:04
  opinion on Bitcoin, then he's fully discredited.
• 57:06
  I don't think that's the case. Like, first of all, this guy's
• 57:09
  like 100 years old. So like, wait, I don't really
• 57:11
  expect him to understand new technologies like Bitcoin.
• 57:14
  But the point remains the same that people do listen to Warren
• 57:18
  Buffett. He is what his nickname is the
• 57:21
  Oracle of Omaha. So if people are seeing Warren
• 57:25
  Buffett say, hey, I'm in cash right now expecting a bigger
• 57:29
  correction that goes into the bigger kind of sentiment idea
• 57:33
  that a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines.
• 57:35
  And once we do see reversals, whether it's, you know, the
• 57:41
  economy expanding, whether it's the, I don't know, the
• 57:46
  controlled ending of the war in the Middle East or operation in
• 57:50
  Iran, then you will start to see people deploy their capital.
• 57:53
  And what we've seen in the last couple of weeks or what we're in
• 57:57
  week 5 now and at very least a month and a half since this
• 58:00
  operation in Iran started, is that people have fundamentally
• 58:05
  moved away from, quote, risky assets.
• 58:07
  And I think this is where you start to look into Bitcoin
• 58:12
  currently, at least from our perspective as bias Bitcoiners.
• 58:15
  And I've been mentioning this for the last five weeks, that
• 58:18
  I'm super surprised at how resilient Bitcoin has been in
• 58:22
  the face of what's going on. Because like Nico said, in the
• 58:25
  past, Bitcoin didn't really care about what was going on
• 58:27
  globally. But now since we do have Wall
• 58:29
  Street institutions basically on our doorstep, Bitcoin is, I
• 58:34
  wouldn't say wholly connected to global macro kind of movements,
• 58:39
  but we are seeing that there is some correlation here.
• 58:42
  Basically what these big investors are thinking and
• 58:45
  feeling, Bitcoin will react and Bitcoin will have an effect on
• 58:49
  that. And so people are sitting in
• 58:50
  cash right now until people feel comfortable to deploy their
• 58:54
  capital again. If Bitcoin just kind of still
• 58:58
  stays range bound for the next 3:00-ish months like that,
• 59:02
  that's probably I, I don't want to say that's the most bullish
• 59:05
  thing that can happen, but that is a very bullish indicator of
• 59:09
  where we currently are right now.
• 59:10
  So I'm just echoing what Nico said here.
• 59:12
  But also don't forget, a lot of people are sitting on their
• 59:17
  hands right now. They're hearing what Warren
• 59:19
  Buffett is saying and they're like, yeah, maybe I should have
• 59:21
  been in cash. Maybe I should be in cash right
• 59:23
  now because maybe something bigger is coming down the
• 59:26
  pipeline. No one really knows.
• 59:27
  And that I think that signal in and of itself, people have no
• 59:31
  idea what's going on. Yes, in the last two days,
• 59:34
  equities, you know, stock market, S&P 500, NASDAQ, they
• 59:38
  did have a very strong comeback, like trillions of dollars have
• 59:41
  been added back into the market. And that is on the expectation
• 59:45
  that tonight we're going to hear, I don't know, the this war
• 59:48
  is over or it's wrapping up in two to three weeks, but.
• 59:51
  I think that it's, it's very interesting if you do have that
• 59:54
  type of announcement from President Trump, I think it
• 59:58
  would be very, very bullish in the short term, but I, I don't
• 1:00:03
  think. I don't see it turning.
• 1:00:06
  I don't don't don't see it turning.
• 1:00:09
  You know Bitcoin around 100%. No, no, I I agree.
• 1:00:13
  It would just be. It wouldn't be like AV shaped
• 1:00:17
  recovery is. That's not what I'm saying.
• 1:00:19
  What I'm saying is it won't, we won't probably see like a
• 1:00:26
  existential collapse like we're all expecting.
• 1:00:28
  It'll just probably go sideways for a lot longer.
• 1:00:31
  But there's one thing actually one comment, and I can't find it
• 1:00:33
  here, so forgive me for not mentioning it, but it I think
• 1:00:37
  this is a good comment actually. Let me see if I can find it.
• 1:00:40
  Oh, it's nice. Bubby.
• 1:00:42
  W8888 sent US $5 in Bitcoin to the Rumble wallet.
• 1:00:46
  Oh yeah, and we we did get we did get another super chat chef
• 1:00:49
  with the Chris. He says this is for the bull
• 1:00:51
  tards like Ron and Opti but and I can't find it right now
• 1:00:55
  anyways, I can't find the comment, but someone said and
• 1:00:57
  and I think this might be the big take away.
• 1:00:59
  It's like what did what did Warren Buffett say in night
• 1:01:01
  clip? He's kind of expecting a 30 to
• 1:01:03
  50% discount. Do what Warren Buffett does
• 1:01:07
  bitcoins at a 45% discount. So this is when you should be
• 1:01:11
  buying. This is the time to be buying
• 1:01:13
  anyways. Yeah, absolutely.
• 1:01:15
  All right, everybody, We're going to be right back in just a
• 1:01:17
  little bit. Here we go.
• 1:01:22
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• 1:05:03
  getting more expensive for me Yeah bro.
• 1:05:05
  I mean, you got to pay. You got to pay your dues, dude.
• 1:05:08
  Literally that's a good comment. That's funny.
• 1:05:10
  You got to pay your dues bro. So I do want to talk a little
• 1:05:15
  bit about the Clarity Act Give you guys a Clarity Act update
• 1:05:17
  today. Clarity Act is the best thing
• 1:05:20
  that could happen to the D5 community and finally gives them
• 1:05:23
  the legal certainty they deserve.
• 1:05:25
  Developers, validators, and node operators will finally have a
• 1:05:29
  safe harbor and we can ensure American no innovation could
• 1:05:32
  stay right here on US soil. I think the part that applies to
• 1:05:37
  us Bitcoiners is the last part. Developers, validators, and node
• 1:05:42
  operators will finally have safe harbor.
• 1:05:44
  This is so important, ladies and gentlemen.
• 1:05:46
  This is part of why we beat the battle drum so hard to get Trump
• 1:05:50
  in office. We survived Operation Choke .2
• 1:05:54
  point O Clearly a certain political party in the United
• 1:05:57
  States doesn't want, you know, Bitcoin and to get integrated to
• 1:06:03
  the traditional financial system.
• 1:06:06
  And I think they want central bank digital currency that it's
• 1:06:09
  not an opinion. It's like they've they vocally
• 1:06:11
  have said this many times, specifically Elizabeth Warren,
• 1:06:14
  who's who's on the head of the Senate Banking Committee for for
• 1:06:19
  the Democrats and she wants to CBDC and she's very antagonistic
• 1:06:24
  against Bitcoin. So what are they going to do?
• 1:06:26
  I mean, we saw this with operation choke .2 point O.
• 1:06:29
  We saw the arrest of the samurai wallet developers.
• 1:06:32
  We saw the arrest of the tornado cash developers.
• 1:06:35
  We saw, you know, some banks were literally assassinated,
• 1:06:41
  some pro Bitcoin banks, right. So, you know, if another
• 1:06:46
  Democrat administration gets into power, I think we might see
• 1:06:53
  a, you know, Operation Choke Point 2.0 3 point O right?
• 1:06:58
  And I think they're going to be a lot more insidious this time.
• 1:07:01
  And what are the things that they, they might go after?
• 1:07:04
  They might go after nodes, they might go after developers.
• 1:07:07
  I don't, I don't think they might, if they will go after
• 1:07:09
  developers, they will go after nodes.
• 1:07:11
  So This is why the Clarity Act in that respect is so important,
• 1:07:17
  right? Because again, it would, it
• 1:07:19
  would enshrine these protections into, into legislation.
• 1:07:26
  And if they are enshrined to the legislation, it doesn't matter
• 1:07:29
  if you have a Democrat politician or, or, or or a
• 1:07:32
  Democrat house. It doesn't matter whether you
• 1:07:35
  have a Democrat executive branch, he's going to have a
• 1:07:40
  hard time fighting this stuff with this stuff enshrined into
• 1:07:43
  law, right? This is why it's so important
• 1:07:45
  for the Clarity Act to pass. This is why Frank Holmes said if
• 1:07:48
  it gets passed, we're going to see $250,000 Bitcoin because
• 1:07:51
  again, it's going to give to the name clarity to the industry.
• 1:07:55
  It's going to give the industry a sense of protection, legal
• 1:08:00
  protection, regardless of the political environment that I
• 1:08:03
  think is going to be difficult to reverse.
• 1:08:06
  But anyways, let's check out the Poly market odds on on this
• 1:08:09
  passing. Right now.
• 1:08:10
  It's only at 52% and we are burning daylight, ladies and
• 1:08:16
  gentlemen, daylight is burning right now on the Clarity Act.
• 1:08:20
  Again, high probability the Democrats take the House in
• 1:08:24
  November. If that's the case, forget about
• 1:08:26
  any type of pro Bitcoin legislation.
• 1:08:30
  This is why I got so effing upset about the Iranian
• 1:08:35
  conflict, right? Because again, I'm a single
• 1:08:38
  issue voter. I think that if you really want
• 1:08:41
  to fix a lot of the issues that America is facing right now, the
• 1:08:45
  affordability crisis, specifically for the younger
• 1:08:48
  generations, you know what you got to do?
• 1:08:50
  You got to fix the money, right? You know what's going to provide
• 1:08:53
  legal air cover for fixing the money?
• 1:08:55
  Something like the Clarity Act, right, man.
• 1:08:59
  But again, what is the focus? The focus in the focus is let's,
• 1:09:04
  you know, spend all this money on another conflict in the
• 1:09:08
  Middle East. Like look at how many time look
• 1:09:11
  at the outcome of every single other time we've done this.
• 1:09:14
  It's been an utter catastrophe, right?
• 1:09:19
  Again, he ran on the America First platform.
• 1:09:23
  Doesn't really feel like it from my standpoint, from my
• 1:09:27
  viewpoint, right? This is really what should have
• 1:09:30
  been focused on is getting the Clarity Act into law.
• 1:09:34
  And, and I do want to give credit where credit is due to
• 1:09:37
  the Trump administration to they have been pressing for this from
• 1:09:42
  the executive side. They have had Scott Besant go on
• 1:09:46
  TV multiple times. Trump has been very vocal about
• 1:09:49
  it from his Truth Social account.
• 1:09:51
  Shout out Senator Lummis for literally holding it down.
• 1:09:55
  So they have done enough. But again, like you create these
• 1:10:00
  distractions and you spend this political capital getting
• 1:10:04
  involved in conflicts that nobody wants to get involved in,
• 1:10:09
  and then it decreases the chances of this type of stuff
• 1:10:11
  getting into law. Like that's just the reality.
• 1:10:15
  So anyhow, the more positive note.
• 1:10:23
  This is hilarious by River Financial.
• 1:10:26
  Square just Omega candled the merchant Bitcoin adoption chart.
• 1:10:30
  Yes, they did 'cause we all remember Square launched from
• 1:10:34
  their payment from their point of sale platforms.
• 1:10:37
  Now you can get paid in Bitcoin. You can convert some of your
• 1:10:41
  Fiat earnings straight into Bitcoin.
• 1:10:44
  That is great for adoption. So very bullish on Block and on
• 1:10:50
  Square. I think what they did was
• 1:10:52
  fantastic and I hope it keeps moving in that direction, guys.
• 1:10:57
  That's what I'm thinking, right? Also pretty cool kind of
• 1:11:02
  announcement non Bitcoin related before we get into the culture.
• 1:11:07
  Actually, should we wade into the culture?
• 1:11:09
  Yeah, I don't know what the announcement, but let me can I
• 1:11:11
  chime in here real quick 'cause I I just want to add a little
• 1:11:14
  more context to the Clarity Act stuff.
• 1:11:17
  So there was a, a clip going around of Senator Tim Scott and
• 1:11:22
  this is verbatim what he was saying on Fox News that he spoke
• 1:11:26
  last night with Coinbase and everyone is still at the table.
• 1:11:29
  Quote, we now have Republicans and Democrats working together
• 1:11:32
  on language that they can agree on and that the White House
• 1:11:35
  agrees on as well. And then there was another clip
• 1:11:38
  of Senator Lummus believe going around yesterday.
• 1:11:42
  I couldn't Fact Check on whether this was a new one because it
• 1:11:46
  seems like maybe I'm just like burnt down all the clarity act
• 1:11:49
  stuff, but it's apparently this is this is the like hottest
• 1:11:53
  breaking news on the clarity Act is that the markup bill
• 1:11:58
  structure should be in by Easter.
• 1:12:02
  So this Sunday and that now if, if that does happen on Sunday or
• 1:12:09
  by Monday morning, if they do all agree on what the Clarity
• 1:12:14
  Clarity Act markup structure Bill looks like, then that
• 1:12:19
  timeline of it happening by the end of April as at least if it
• 1:12:25
  happens, it's really hinging on if this happened by this
• 1:12:28
  weekend, then they're still saying end of April here.
• 1:12:32
  So that's like the latest news on the actual timeline of it
• 1:12:38
  will if something fall through by this weekend probably.
• 1:12:42
  I mean, I'll see it when I. I agree.
• 1:12:45
  I'll. Believe it when I see it, I.
• 1:12:46
  Agree, but that's that's the latest that's the latest
• 1:12:49
  rhetoric. That's the latest, you know,
• 1:12:51
  announcement on it. I'm, I'm, I'm like, I'm still on
• 1:12:55
  the point. If this doesn't happen in April,
• 1:12:57
  it's not going to happen by June.
• 1:12:59
  If it doesn't happen by June, it's not going to happen at all.
• 1:13:00
  That's that's kind of where I'm at.
• 1:13:03
  I don't think it's going to happen.
• 1:13:04
  I've been telling you guys that since since since Senator Lummis
• 1:13:08
  announced that she wasn't running for re election and then
• 1:13:11
  since Bo Hines quit to join Tether, I I became less and then
• 1:13:17
  now we have literally the AI and Cryptozar.
• 1:13:21
  He's out now too. David Sachs is out.
• 1:13:24
  Yeah, but now he's in like the Science Development Board.
• 1:13:27
  Or something. It's not the same.
• 1:13:29
  Dude, I mean I agree they. Started so strong, bro, like
• 1:13:33
  these executive orders like and of course, like now in
• 1:13:36
  hindsight, of course, that was the euphoric top, but they
• 1:13:39
  started so strong. You had Elon in the Oval Office,
• 1:13:42
  you had David Sachs in the Oval Office.
• 1:13:44
  There he was signing executive orders left and right and then
• 1:13:48
  all of I don't know what, excuse my language, everybody.
• 1:13:51
  I don't know what the fuck happened since the beginning of
• 1:13:55
  that to now. Dude, I know what happened.
• 1:13:58
  I know exactly what happened. We're literally, it became from
• 1:14:01
  like all this hope for change and you had like the the
• 1:14:06
  smartest people, Trump had the craziest cabinet.
• 1:14:09
  And then within like a year, it's like back-to-back to doing
• 1:14:14
  business the way Washington has done business for decades and
• 1:14:17
  decades and decades. So that tells me a couple of
• 1:14:20
  things, right? The bureaucratic state must have
• 1:14:27
  so much. They're the ones actually
• 1:14:30
  running the country. They're the ones actually making
• 1:14:34
  decisions. Because it can't be that you had
• 1:14:39
  Barack Obama. You had, I'm not going to put
• 1:14:43
  Joe Biden in there, but let you had Barack Obama who ran on a
• 1:14:47
  platform of hope and change. And then you had Trump, an
• 1:14:50
  outsider, the first president that was elected, that wasn't a
• 1:14:55
  politician or a general before he got into office that ran on a
• 1:15:00
  platform of no more forever wars to literally getting us into
• 1:15:05
  another forever war. That tells me that the people in
• 1:15:08
  charge is, it's not the president.
• 1:15:12
  Like it's literally people call it the deep state.
• 1:15:17
  It's not the deep state, ladies and gentlemen, it's up in your
• 1:15:19
  face. The administrative state has so
• 1:15:22
  much power and influence over leadership.
• 1:15:26
  I, I truly believe they're the ones running the country.
• 1:15:30
  And you know who funds them? The money printer, the Federal
• 1:15:34
  Reserve, it all comes full effing circle, doesn't it?
• 1:15:39
  Right. So again, I, I think that, you
• 1:15:43
  know, trying to vote harder daddy out of this clearly didn't
• 1:15:48
  work. I think that Trump as a
• 1:15:53
  president was a one in a lifetime president.
• 1:15:56
  I mean, he survived assassination attempts like he
• 1:15:59
  himself got debanked. Like, like I'm telling you, like
• 1:16:03
  you couldn't have put in someone better if you tried.
• 1:16:07
  That was that had the, the gravitas, the fortitude and the
• 1:16:13
  determination to change the system.
• 1:16:15
  You couldn't have put in someone better if you tried.
• 1:16:18
  And despite all of that, the system didn't change.
• 1:16:22
  It literally took six months for the immune system of Washington,
• 1:16:27
  DC to get Elon the F out of the city.
• 1:16:32
  You now you have David Sachs out yet Bo Hines, he resigned and
• 1:16:37
  then now you and and then Senator Lum is saying basically
• 1:16:39
  she's not running for re election.
• 1:16:40
  Like like literally you had an immune system response by
• 1:16:47
  Washington to get these people the F out, right?
• 1:16:52
  That's literally what happened so.
• 1:16:57
  Wait, wait, can I, can I give you?
• 1:16:58
  Can I give you my you're? Going to regret calling in a
• 1:17:00
  forever war if he ended tonight. Guys, do you think?
• 1:17:04
  Let me ask you something? Let me ask you something, OK?
• 1:17:07
  If it was your country, United States just killed your entire
• 1:17:11
  leadership, right? They just killed, literally just
• 1:17:15
  dropped bombs. No, like not nothing, Not
• 1:17:19
  telling him anything in advance. Just drop bombs on their house.
• 1:17:22
  Destroyed your entire leadership.
• 1:17:25
  You are ideologically opposed to the United States in 50
• 1:17:31
  different ways. Your religion, right, is
• 1:17:34
  completely different than the United States.
• 1:17:40
  Do you think that's going to change their minds on the United
• 1:17:44
  States? Do you think now all of a sudden
• 1:17:47
  they're going to be like, Oh my God, you know what?
• 1:17:49
  Actually, now that they've destroyed our country, of him
• 1:17:53
  dropping bombs on our country continuously, and now that
• 1:17:58
  they've taken out all of our leadership and there was no
• 1:18:03
  regime change, now all of a sudden we're going to change our
• 1:18:07
  mind on the United States? Do you think that's going to
• 1:18:09
  happen? That's my question to you.
• 1:18:12
  If the answer is no, then he might say that the conflict is
• 1:18:18
  over. But if you are a company, an
• 1:18:22
  energy company that's running oil tankers through the Strait
• 1:18:25
  of Hormuz, do you think you're going to have confidence in
• 1:18:29
  that? Do you think you're going to
• 1:18:31
  have confidence in that? Do you really think Iran is
• 1:18:34
  going to end their nuclear weapons program?
• 1:18:38
  No, they this literally have has given it.
• 1:18:43
  It's given them final confirmation on how important it
• 1:18:47
  is for them to develop their nuclear weapons program because
• 1:18:52
  it is literally, literally life or death.
• 1:18:55
  Why do you think the United States has not got in touch
• 1:18:59
  North Korea? Why do you think that is?
• 1:19:02
  Why do you think that is? North Korea feels, I would say
• 1:19:06
  even stronger about the US than Iran.
• 1:19:10
  Why do you think the why do you think the United States has not
• 1:19:13
  touched them? Because they have nukes, right?
• 1:19:18
  So like, again, like they, they're going to frame it in a
• 1:19:23
  way where it's going to give confidence to global markets.
• 1:19:26
  They're going to frame it in a way where they're going to
• 1:19:29
  they're, they're going to declare victory.
• 1:19:31
  But has anything really changed? No, absolutely not.
• 1:19:36
  And This is why I said the first time I told you guys this, when
• 1:19:41
  this shit started going down, I said this is an utter
• 1:19:46
  catastrophe. This is not good.
• 1:19:48
  It's not good for Bitcoin. This is not good for Bitcoin.
• 1:19:55
  This is not good for the US. Nico, you're scaring the house,
• 1:19:59
  bro. This should not This should not.
• 1:20:01
  None of this should have happened in the 1st place
• 1:20:03
  anyways. Let's get wait wait, wait.
• 1:20:05
  Let's get. No, let's.
• 1:20:06
  Wait, wait, wait. Hold on.
• 1:20:08
  One last thing. One last thing, One last thing.
• 1:20:09
  You're going to hear one. No, no, no, not to the I want to
• 1:20:13
  give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
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• 1:20:50
  Com All right, Nico, can I tell you my can I tell you what what
• 1:21:01
  happened with with the strategic Bitcoin Reserve before you do
• 1:21:03
  your announcement just to continue, just continue.
• 1:21:05
  Absolutely, but you got to learn how to play the stream game,
• 1:21:08
  brother. I know you should have left
• 1:21:10
  everybody on a cling. Well, we, we, we are, we did.
• 1:21:13
  I know we did. I forced it.
• 1:21:15
  And anyways, you know what happened with the Strategic
• 1:21:17
  Bitcoin Reserve, Nico and I, I think you, I think you added
• 1:21:20
  yourself here. You got God, dude, they knew
• 1:21:24
  you. They knew bitcoins were single
• 1:21:26
  issue voters and they said what needed to get your vote and they
• 1:21:31
  got it. And now they didn't follow
• 1:21:34
  through on it. That's what happened bro.
• 1:21:37
  Totally what happened. Tell you why I fundamentally
• 1:21:39
  disagree with you. You're wrong.
• 1:21:42
  You can call me. You can call me wrong.
• 1:21:44
  Whatever you want, dude. Trump's kids are so.
• 1:21:47
  Financially. Incentivized by Bitcoin.
• 1:21:51
  The best thing that would what happened to the Trump family
• 1:21:55
  financially is for Bitcoin to go to 250K300K.
• 1:22:00
  Trump's kid is running American Bitcoin.
• 1:22:02
  Truth social has one of the largest Bitcoin stockpiles there
• 1:22:07
  is. Whatever Trump media dude, they
• 1:22:10
  have one of the largest Bitcoin stockpiles there is.
• 1:22:13
  Dude, the Trump family is so incentivized for Bitcoin to go
• 1:22:18
  up. So I fundamentally disagree with
• 1:22:21
  you. I think he ran into to a
• 1:22:23
  bureaucratic Stonewall. There was this very famous
• 1:22:27
  video. There's this very famous video.
• 1:22:32
  The problem with Nico is even when he's right, he's wrong.
• 1:22:34
  Yeah. Guys, listen, I'm so, I'm so
• 1:22:37
  used to, I'm so used to you guys saying that I'm wrong and and
• 1:22:41
  talking all this shit because I remember the same thing happened
• 1:22:44
  in October. When I'm the opposite, even when
• 1:22:46
  I'm wrong, I'm right. When the when the, when the bear
• 1:22:49
  market, when the bear market started, when the bear market
• 1:22:51
  started hitting. I remember, I remember telling
• 1:22:53
  you guys in October, I remember telling you guys in October, I
• 1:22:57
  was like, listen, we probably topped out the bear markets
• 1:23:00
  going to happen. And Opti and Walker, they came
• 1:23:03
  on the show and the whole chat was beating me up.
• 1:23:07
  And they're like, you got, you're so wrong, Nico, this
• 1:23:10
  thing's going to go back up, whatever, blah, blah, blah,
• 1:23:12
  blah, blah. And I kept telling you guys, I'm
• 1:23:15
  like, listen, the bear, the bear markets happening.
• 1:23:18
  I was vindicated. What I'm telling you right now
• 1:23:21
  is this is not and, and I let me be very clear for the people
• 1:23:25
  watching us on Rumble and let me be very clear for the people
• 1:23:28
  watching us on YouTube. I don't believe this is Trump's
• 1:23:33
  fault. I think that if Trump had a
• 1:23:36
  choice, you, you hear all this about him being called a
• 1:23:38
  dictator. I don't think he has enough
• 1:23:42
  power to get his agenda the way he wanted his agenda across.
• 1:23:48
  I think he ran into a bureaucratic Stonewall.
• 1:23:52
  I think the Federal Reserve purposely kept interest rates
• 1:23:56
  high to like neuter his economy, neuter his growth.
• 1:24:01
  And I think that he might have been tapped on the shoulder man.
• 1:24:06
  Like, I mean, like this is a guy that almost got assassinated 2
• 1:24:09
  times, right? I don't, I don't put any of the
• 1:24:14
  blame on Trump. I think Trump did as much as he
• 1:24:17
  could with the cards that he was dealt.
• 1:24:21
  And, and I'll and I'll give you guys more data points on this,
• 1:24:24
  right? It wasn't just Trump guys.
• 1:24:27
  It wasn't just Trump. Bo Hines resigned, Elon got got
• 1:24:33
  the hell out of there. David Sachs, he's not the AI and
• 1:24:39
  Cryptozar anymore, Cynthia Lummis said specifically,
• 1:24:43
  specifically this is not, this is going to be a marathon and
• 1:24:48
  not a Sprint. I'm not running for re election.
• 1:24:53
  If you put all of those things together right, they're they're
• 1:24:57
  painting to you a very clear picture.
• 1:25:01
  The people voted for change. The people gave Trump and the
• 1:25:07
  Republicans A mandate, a very clear mandate.
• 1:25:11
  It's very obvious. But clearly, clearly elections
• 1:25:18
  don't determine the fate and the direction of the country.
• 1:25:25
  If there is 1 silver lining out of the Trump election and Trump
• 1:25:30
  again winning that, winning that election in, in 2024, it was
• 1:25:36
  that, it was that that was the silver lining.
• 1:25:40
  I don't think you can, I don't think you could change this.
• 1:25:43
  I fundamentally don't believe you can change this from within
• 1:25:46
  the system. I think it's too well
• 1:25:49
  entrenched. I really believe that.
• 1:25:52
  Like, look, Ricardo Botardo, just like Obama, it's the same
• 1:25:59
  thing. Look, there's this like very
• 1:26:01
  famous video of Vladimir Putin, like basically saying he's like,
• 1:26:05
  look, like the presidents don't make the rule.
• 1:26:07
  I mean, should we go? I don't think the presidents
• 1:26:10
  have been in charge since the 19, since the 19. 60s ladies and
• 1:26:15
  gentlemen, JFK was the last year's president.
• 1:26:18
  I don't think that. I don't think presidents have
• 1:26:20
  been have been in charge since for a very long time now.
• 1:26:24
  And there's this very famous video of Putin, Putin basically
• 1:26:26
  saying, like, look, like, you know, all these presidents, they
• 1:26:29
  get elected. I think he was specifically
• 1:26:31
  talking about Obama. And then, you know, these men in
• 1:26:34
  suits, they come in, they knock on the door and they say, hey,
• 1:26:39
  here's how things really are going to go.
• 1:26:41
  Like that's what I think happened, right?
• 1:26:50
  It's April Fool's Day and I'm we didn't even make any April
• 1:26:54
  Fool's jokes and I'm dying over here.
• 1:26:56
  But what? Do.
• 1:26:59
  You want to say there was supposedly something you want to
• 1:27:01
  talk about? That wasn't Bitcoin.
• 1:27:02
  I want to give a shout out to our sponsor, Bitcoin 2026.
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  to miss it. The last thing that I wanted to
• 1:27:42
  say is today is a historic day because we are going back to the
• 1:27:49
  moon. The Aries 2 mission is later at
• 1:27:52
  today, it's at 6:00 PM and actually if the rocket
• 1:27:57
  successfully. Launched.
• 1:27:58
  Hold on, I thought we lived on Flat Earth.
• 1:28:01
  If the rocket if the rocket successfully launches, this is
• 1:28:05
  going to be like the first. Time Aries 2 Is that NASA or is
• 1:28:09
  that SpaceX? That's NASA.
• 1:28:10
  NASA, NASA Back to the I thought we lost that technology.
• 1:28:15
  Well, apparently they found it again.
• 1:28:17
  Really. Let's do this.
• 1:28:18
  So can we watch this live? Yes, you could watch this live.
• 1:28:21
  So the Artemis 2 missions tonight?
• 1:28:23
  You said Aries, Artemis or it's it's Artemis.
• 1:28:26
  OK, Artemis 2 mission is tonight, and essentially they're
• 1:28:31
  sending astronauts back to the moon.
• 1:28:33
  They're not going to land on the moon.
• 1:28:34
  They're going to do an orbit around the moon.
• 1:28:37
  Yeah, check this out. And then this prepares it for
• 1:28:42
  this prepares us for landing astronauts on the moon, which is
• 1:28:47
  going to happen in 20-30. Now the question, because this
• 1:28:50
  is a Bitcoin show after all, is, is Bitcoin going to go to the
• 1:28:55
  moon before we physically actually.
• 1:28:58
  So that's dark. That's dark to the moon and I'm
• 1:29:02
  going to end the show with that. Love you guys.
• 1:29:04
  We'll see you guys tomorrow, another episode of Simply
• 1:29:06
  Bitcoin Live. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:29:08
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:29:12
  mission to enable financial independence.