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Rate Cuts Ahead: Market Highs and Tech Boom · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hey there , savvy investors and welcome back to Spy Trader with your host , Cash Flow Cody !
• 0:06
  It's 6 am on Friday , September 12th , 2025 , Pacific time , and we've got a lot to unpack from the bustling world of finance .
• 0:14
  The market is always on the move , and today's episode is packed with insights to help you navigate these choppy , yet exciting , waters .
• 0:22
  Let's dive in !
• 0:23
  Starting with the overall market , Wall Street saw a ' quietly mixed ' start this morning .
• 0:29
  S&P 500 futures are flat , Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down a slight 0.2% , and Nasdaq futures are ticking up 0.1% .
• 0:41
  This comes right after a pretty spectacular Thursday , September 11th , where the Dow , S&P 500 , and Nasdaq Composite all closed at new record highs .
• 0:53
  The Nasdaq even notched a record high on September 10th too .
• 0:57
  Looking at the bigger picture , over the past month , the S&P 500 has gained 1.84% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 1.53% .
• 1:09
  Our smallcap friends in the Russell 2000 , after a strong 7.1% jump in August , were down slightly by 0.61% yesterday .
• 1:21
  Yeartodate , the S&P 500 is up a solid 12% , and the Nasdaq Composite is an impressive 14.15% higher , really showing the strength , especially in growth stocks .
• 1:34
  But beneath these headline numbers , there's a fascinating tugofwar happening with macroeconomic conditions .
• 1:41
  Inflation is still playing hard to get .
• 1:45
  The annual US inflation rate , measured by the Consumer Price Index or CPI , accelerated to 2.9% in August , up from 2.7% in July , hitting its highest level since January .
• 1:58
  That's mainly due to rising prices for gas , groceries , hotel rooms , and airfare .
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  Core CPI , which strips out those volatile food and energy costs , held steady at 3.1% .
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  Both are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target .
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  The Producer Price Index , or PPI , saw a slight monthly decline of 0.1% in August , but was up 2.6% yearoveryear .
• 2:26
  And those costs from President Trump's tariffs are being passed on to consumers , contributing to these inflationary pressures .
• 2:34
  Now , for some potentially good news for borrowers , the Federal Reserve is widely expected to implement its first interest rate cut of the year at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee , or FOMC , meeting next week , on September 1617 .
• 2:51
  A quarterpoint cut , that's 25 basis points , is largely anticipated , which would move the federal funds rate from its current range of 4.25%4.50% .
• 3:03
  This expectation has already nudged mortgage rates lower , with the average 30year fixed home loan falling to 6.35% for the week ending September 11th , marking the largest weekly drop in a year .
• 3:17
  The Fed has kept rates steady for five consecutive meetings earlier this year , so this would be a shift .
• 3:24
  Driving this dovish shift from the Fed are signs of a weakening labor market .
• 3:29
  The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% in August , its highest level in nearly four years .
• 3:36
  Nonfarm payroll employment added only 22,000 jobs in August , a figure that hasn't shown much improvement since April and is below expectations .
• 3:47
  Initial jobless claims also rose to 263,000 in the week ending September 6th , the highest since October 2021 .
• 3:57
  Plus , revisions show 911,000 fewer jobs were added than initially estimated for the year through March 2025 .
• 4:06
  On the GDP front , the US economy did expand at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025 , a nice rebound from a 0.5% contraction in Q1 .
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  However , Fitch Ratings projects a slowdown , with growth decelerating from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in both 2025 and 2026 , citing weakening consumer spending and government expenditure .
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  So , that's the macro picture in a nutshell .
• 4:40
  Now , let's zoom into how different parts of the market are reacting .
• 4:45
  The Technology sector , despite only gaining 0.3% in August , continues to be a longterm powerhouse , especially fueled by Artificial Intelligence optimism .
• 4:56
  Oracle , ticker ORCL , shares surged a massive 36% on September 10th after reporting a strong outlook for its cloud infrastructure business , driven by booming AI demand and a reported 300 billion cloud computing deal with OpenAI .
• 5:15
  Adobe , ticker ADBE , also saw its shares rise over 4% in afterhours trading on September 11th following betterthanexpected fiscal thirdquarter earnings .
• 5:26
  Nvidia , ticker NVDA , continues its incredible run , with shares up 3.85% in the last 24 hours and an impressive 61.96% yearoveryear .
• 5:40
  Microsoft , ticker MSFT , also rose modestly after European Union regulators accepted its proposed changes to the Teams platform , resolving an antitrust investigation .
• 5:53
  Apple , ticker AAPL , saw a slight dip after market hours today , missing a key buy point , though upcoming preorders for new iPhones and AirPods could influence its nearterm performance .
• 6:07
  The Healthcare sector staged a strong rebound in August , returning 5.4% , and is currently considered deeply undervalued , trading at a 20% discount to the broader market .
• 6:19
  Historically , healthcare has been the topperforming S&P 500 sector from September through November .
• 6:26
  Job growth in healthcare remains robust , adding an average of 42,000 jobs monthly over the last year .
• 6:34
  The sector is also undergoing transformation due to AI applications , presenting new opportunities , though potential future Medicaid cuts could introduce some financial challenges for certain organizations .
• 6:47
  Financial Services were also up at least 5% in August .
• 6:51
  Regulatory simplification initiatives , like those from ASIC , are aimed at reducing complexity and compliance costs , which could be beneficial .
• 7:01
  Jefferies has issued