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Best Bets Today | Lakers vs Clippers: Battle for L.A.?! | MLB, NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Wednesday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Well, we had a losing day on the show yesterday, 1-2,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: and I think it should have been a 3-0 day.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think I mishandicapped any of these games. I
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: am not happy about the results here. Philadelphia in hockey,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: they did what they usually do. They fell way behind.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: They came all the way back, down 3-0. They tied
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: the game in the final minute of regulation, getting everybody's
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: hopes up, and then they just lose in overtime. We've
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: seen this before. with Philadelphia, they've done it to me
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: before already, getting pretty sick of this Philadelphia team. And
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: if you look at the stats in the game, they
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: didn't really get outplayed in the game. They had more
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: shots in the game by a significant amount, although you
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: could argue that, yeah, it was because they were desperate
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: and they were behind, maybe. But statistically, the game did
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: not indicate that it was a... The stats basically indicated
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia could have and should have won that game, really, statistically.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: But yes, the final score was close, so it wasn't
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: that misleading.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: St.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Louis was an extremely misleading result. They lost 2-0. They
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: won every statistic in that game.
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: St.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Louis completely dominated that game, and somehow it didn't translate
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: into any goals for them, and they lost 2-0. That
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: was a complete BS result. St. Louis absolutely should have
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: won that game. And then we did get the NBA
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: play right, so as long as we're not involving the
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Miami Heat, we're doing well in the NBA. The New
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: York Knicks with an easy win in that one yesterday.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I haven't really gone through the stats in that game yet,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: although I should, because I think at least one of
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: those teams is playing today, but whatever. Good win for
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the Knicks, finally getting a win this season. Not that
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I'm a fan of them or anything, but when we
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: have them as a play, when we have them as
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: a bet, you know, you got to root for it, man.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: We had a crazy baseball game yesterday as Tampa Bay
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: stayed alive in a, what is it, 12 inning game,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I think is what it was. They fell behind in
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: the 12th inning. I believe Tampa had never led in
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: the game until the final score. And it was Milwaukee
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: just ran out of pitchers pretty much and screwed themselves
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: in the bottom of the inning with a, throwing error
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: on the first play of the bottom of the 12th.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: It was a ground out to third base, or at
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: least that's what it should have been. The third baseman
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: one-hopped the throw, bad throw, but the first baseman still
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: should have cleaned that up. Still didn't do it. Error,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: and everything just completely unraveled. Shane Drohan, or Drohan, I
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: guess I should know how to pronounce it, being in
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Little Ireland over here in Massachusetts. He sucked. He's awful, dude.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: He gave up three straight hits after that, and then
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: it was game over. Milwaukee cannot use that guy again,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: but we'll talk about that game because the World Series
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: will continue. We got mostly NBA today. There is a
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: little bit of hockey. I feel like I'm maybe not
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: restraining myself enough here and not being selective enough, but
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: I have a lot of games that I kind of
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: like here, and I'm throwing them all on the cards,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: so we'll see. And, of course, just to dig the
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: knife in yesterday, my next strongest lean in the NHL
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: was a winner, the Islanders. I think they blew a
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: 3-0 lead. I think they almost pulled an opposite of
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Flyers, almost the 76ers. Philadelphia Flyers, the Islanders,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I think, blew a 3-0 lead and then still wound
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: up winning in overtime after all that. So, I mean,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: at least I was right about that lean, I guess, but...
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: It makes you really pissed off when your top two
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: plays don't win and then the one that you leave
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: off does win. It's betting, man. It is what it is.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: We'll get right into it after the intro. Let's go.
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: Look at me.
• 4:43
  Speaker 6: Now Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 4:56
  Speaker 6: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 5:05
  Speaker 6: hard But he don't get the.
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: Crown Hold on.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Hold on.
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: Stay with me now.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Sports for Wednesday, October 28th. Going a little bit early today.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Got some stuff to do. Let's get into it, man.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: We're going to start out with the NHL as I
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: usually do because nobody cares. But We find a place
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: to make in the NHL, man. We do have a
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: TNT True TV game up first, which is maybe not
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: necessarily a great game. I mean, it is the game
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: with the biggest favorite on the board, Philadelphia at Washington. So,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers right off the bat, you can see the oddsmakers
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: are telling you Washington is significantly better than Philadelphia here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I think both teams, in my opinion, are actually a
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: little bit underrated. But, of course, Philadelphia blew the game yesterday. Well,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: they came back and they blew it in overtime. Let's say,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: as I mentioned at the top of the show, not
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: thrilled about that, but now they're on a back-to-back, having
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: to go to Washington. They're not going to overlook Washington,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: but it's not really the easiest spot for them. They
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: will be switching back to Wall in net, but that's
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: not really anything out of the ordinary for them. They
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: just alternate between their two goalies, so that's normal for
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: them anyway. They're playing Utah next, so I don't really
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: see this being a look-ahead. I think it's more just
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: the back-to-back plus the overtime yesterday might have them a
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: little bit fatigued, although they had a couple of days
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: off prior to the game yesterday. Washington is more rested
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: because they did not play yesterday. They beat Buffalo in
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: their last game, so they're coming off a decent win
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: over a team that was a playoff team last year.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: They beat them in overtime. Washington's way more rested because
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: they haven't played since Saturday, but they've had a lot
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: of time off to kind of stew in that win.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Sounds bad. Maybe it is bad. When you're coming off
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: a nice win, sometimes it you'll still have that delayed
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: letdown spot after that. So this game's really hard to handicap.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I don't like this game at all. Washington, they seem
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: to be too heavy a favorite to me, even though
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: I do think they're a good team. Minus 230 is
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the price here. Hasn't really moved, although they are public.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: 85% of tickets, 93% of the cash on them. I mean,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: you know that that line is skewed because of the
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: rest advantage Washington has. So if If Philadelphia wasn't on
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back, this line would probably be like minus 200,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: which is still big, and maybe that's still too big.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So just looking at the price, I guess maybe the
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: lean would be towards Philadelphia here, and Philadelphia was probably
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: better than they looked yesterday, but not a strong opinion
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: from me, and I don't love playing on teams on
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back at all. So, yeah, that's a pass for me.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Calgary and Edmonton in the Battle of Alberta here. Calgary's
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: been playing well. They've won four games in a row.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I thought that their win over Carolina was kind of
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: a fluke and that they'd have a letdown after that,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: and that has not happened. They haven't lost since then.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Cooley seems to be their guy in net now. They're
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: riding the hot hand, and they've been good. Yeah, they're
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: playing well right now. They're coming off another win, blowout
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: win essentially over Toronto. They're not going to overlook Edmonton,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: but I'm still not sold that Calgary is as good
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: as they've looked in these last four games here. Edmonton's
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: still the way better team here. Edmonton's coming off two
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: losses as well, so I think Edmonton is probably going
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: to be the lean here. Normally, that wouldn't be the case,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: because I think Calgary's always going to get up for
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: a game against Edmonton. They're the little brother in Alberta,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: but given that you're going to get the better team
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: in Edmonton against a team that might be a little
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: bit overrated right now in Calgary, Calgary... playing too well
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: right now, whereas Edmonton's playing poorly at the moment, having
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: lost their last two games. They are coming off a
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: shootout loss the other day against Detroit, but that was
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: as a home favorite, so teams coming off a loss
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: as a home favorite, which Edmonton is coming off two
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in a row, two games in a row where that
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: was the case. Those teams have a tendency to bounce back,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: so I think Edmonton is going to show up, given
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: what their recent results are. Calgary won't overlook Edmonton, but
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: I think I have to lean Edmonton here. You'd have
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to lay like a puck line with them though. They're
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: minus 218, 79% of tickets, 87% of the cash on them.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So they're public, but maybe some more of the money's
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: coming in on them. I mean, it's a similar read
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: to the other game. I just feel like the favorite
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: is a better play in this one than in the
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: first one I talked about. Another way you could play
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: this is Edmonton's team total over. I mean, they seem
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: to always play high scoring games. The total is six
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: and a half. Um, you're probably going to be asking
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: him to score four goals in this game though. They
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: could certainly accomplish that though, but it is a game
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: where the money is coming in on the under. So
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: that would worry me a little bit about that approach.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: If you're going to play Edmonton, find some way of
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: getting the price down. You can play them to win
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: in regulation, which I don't use that much, and I'm
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: also not using it in the play that I'm about
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: to give out here. But that is one way of
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: doing it. I don't know. That's just not the way
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: that I've done things. You could. I tend to be
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit more, I don't know, risk-averse, I guess,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: although to win in regulation, you have to put up
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: less money to win. the amount that you want to
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: win though. So that is definitely an option. Uh, but
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: the other way is to split the bet puck line
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: money line. Uh, but I think Edmonton is how I
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: would lean in that game. Next game will be my
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: play in New Jersey and Colorado here. I'm, I'm going
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: to give out a play in this one.
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: And yeah, this is a little bit unlike me maybe,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: but we are going to play on the favorite here,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Colorado split bet partially on the puck line. minus one
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: and a half. I found it out there plus one
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: 45 and the other part of the bet on the
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: money line at minus one 65. I can show you
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: what the splits are on this to make this bet.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: If you do it out of a hundred 67% of
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: it is going on the money line, part of it
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: on the minus part of it. And then whatever that returns,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: which is about 40, 41, that's how much you bet
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: on the plus money part of it, which is the
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: puck line. And then it, Basically, it creates a minus
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: one puck line at minus 108, so you're getting the
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: price right down into that normal betting range pretty much.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: That's how I'm going to do this. You could take
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Colorado to win in regulation if you wanted to here,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: but I think this sets up really nicely for Colorado,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: who is the better team against New Jersey, even though
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: they are public here, but I'm still going to do this.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, they played yesterday. They're hot. They've won four
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: games in a row. But now they're on a back-to-back,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off a huge blowout win of Dallas.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: You've got to think that's going to make them.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: They're going to be riding really high off of that.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Plump and gay, as we say on the show. They're
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: not going to overlook Colorado, but on a back-to-back, two
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: huge games in a row like this, having to go
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: into elevation, facing what I think is going to be
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: an angry, focused Colorado team with rest. This doesn't look
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: good to me for New Jersey. And by the way,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Hellebook did actually play yesterday. he did well, but Dallas, uh,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: really didn't even put up many shots in the game.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So he didn't really have to do that much. Cause
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: I was saying yesterday, if Hello Book was going to play,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I actually liked the idea of fading New Jersey in
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: that game because I thought that he was going to
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: be rusty and whatever. And that still kind of remains
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: to be seen because Dallas only had like 18 shots
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: in the game. So he did not have to face
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: a barrage of shots in that game, although he only
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: allowed one goal. He did well, obviously. Um, But yeah,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: coming off a game like that, New Jersey, this is
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: going to be a fade spot for them. They're going
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: to switch back to one of their other goalies here.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I assume it's going to be Jake Allen this time
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: because he is their former starter now that Hellbook is
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: probably going to be their... Starter for most of their games. Now,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Allen's been good, so he's not a guy that I
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: fade lightly, but I think this is a spot to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: do it. New Jersey, even though they will have their
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: rested goalie here, they're on a back-to-back. Colorado at 6-5-1.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: They're better than their record suggests at this point. Colorado's
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: coming off a really hideous loss to Nashville. They've lost 3-4,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and one of their losses in that stretch was on
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: the road at New Jersey. and New Jersey actually kind
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: of outplayed them in the game, so I'm not going
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: to say it was a misleading result or anything, but
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: even so, I think Colorado, they'll be able to make
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: some adjustments here because they know that that just happened,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and I think they'll be able to fix some things
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: that went wrong in that game, and they'll be able
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: to make those adjustments and actually zigzag that type of thing.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: They've been off for two days, by the way. They
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: are returning home, but only from a single game road
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: trip to Nashville, and That game, I just think they
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: paid no attention to it. They had just beaten Tampa Bay.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: That was a big win for Colorado, and then all
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, oh, we have to go back out
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: on the road and play this pretty bad Predators team
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: with New Jersey, who's been playing really well, looming on deck,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: and also kind of a quick revenge spot here. I
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: think Colorado just paid zero attention to Nashville in that game.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: I think Nashville did actually outplay them significantly in the game,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: but I think Colorado basically just didn't even make the trip,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I think they're way better than that
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: would suggest. Colorado's better than the record suggests right now,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: like I said. Two of their three losses recently have
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: come by one goal, and again, one of them was
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: to New Jersey. All three of those are on the road.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: So this is a Colorado team. It's definitely better at home.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: They're 4-1-1 at home, and New Jersey's only 2-2 on
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the road. So the home road splits so far this
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: season seem to favor Colorado in this one as well.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: And the odds makers are telling you Colorado's the better team.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: They're minus 170-something on the money line here, although they're public, so...
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: That does worry me. 86% of the tickets on them,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: 90% of the cash, but this is about the spot.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting the better team, the home favorite
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: in a pretty clear bounce back spot. And yes, you
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: do have to pay extra because there's a rest edge here.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: New Jersey having had to play yesterday, but I like
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the spot, man. It's a quick revenge spot where I
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: think Colorado will make the adjustments off of that. New
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Jersey's not going to overlook them, but it's just that
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: New Jersey doesn't really have any adjustments to make from
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: that last time where things worked and they beat Colorado.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? That plus coming off a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: huge win yesterday. Maybe an emotional game, too. Getting Hellebuck there.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Kind of an exciting game. This, to me, seems like
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a letdown spot. Even though usually
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: you won't have a letdown spot against a team like Colorado,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: but Maybe you could because Colorado hasn't been playing that
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: well recently. So, yeah, like I think we've reached kind
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: of a bottom of the market type of scenario with
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Colorado here. And they're at this point possibly even undervalued.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: So we'll grab Colorado. What I think is a little
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: bit of a cheap price here. And, again, I found
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: it cheaper than what the market is showing right now. But, yeah,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can find these numbers out there. You
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: can make your own puck line. You could find a
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: minus one puck line. It's a book probably. It won't
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: be as– good of a price, as if you split
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: it across multiple books like this, but yeah, do what
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: you can. That's the play there. The abs are the
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: play in hockey there. And then we have Toronto-Seattle. I
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: don't know what to think about this game, except that
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Toronto is a road favorite, even though Seattle has a
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: slightly better record. I keep telling you Seattle's not that good,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: and the oddsmakers are telling you that's the case. They're
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: telling you Toronto is better than Seattle by enough that
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: they're actually favored on the road here, so That's kind
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: of where I go with this one. It's like the
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you something that the records do not reflect.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you to not believe the records here.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Seattle's not actually that good, so I would lean to
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Toronto in this game. The situation actually looks pretty good, too,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: because Toronto just lost to Calgary the other day, and
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: you could tell that was a letdown spot for Toronto
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: because they had just beaten Edmonton. 7-2 the game before that.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: That was a win I gave out on the show
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: on Toronto against Edmonton there. They caught Edmonton in a
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: good spot, blew them out, and then I think it
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: was let down City after that game, and they got
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: caught by Calgary. I think it could be a bounce
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: back after an ugly 5-2 loss to Calgary. Seattle, again,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not impressed with Seattle. I don't think they've done
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: a whole lot as far as their resume this season.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: They have a decent record, obviously, but They played a
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: pretty easy schedule, especially early in the season they did.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: They beat Calgary twice in blowouts, so if the public
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: is looking at this, they might think, oh, Seattle's got
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: the better record. They beat Calgary twice, and Calgary beat Toronto,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: so of course, how are we getting Seattle as an
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: underdog here? That might be kind of the public sentiment here.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Seattle is coming off a blowout loss to Minnesota, but
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: that is at least a game I think they got
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: up for mentally. Minnesota is one of the best teams
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: in the conference, you know, so no shame in that loss,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: but still more of an emotional get-up game and then
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: maybe kind of a deflating loss there. Yeah, I would
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: rather have Toronto in this game, but it's not a
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: strong opinion for me, really. The money does seem to
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: agree with this one, and it's the strongest market read
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: on any of these sides here in hockey, so you
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: could do with that info what you want. 63% of tickets,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: 87% of the cash on them. at around minus 120
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: so the money seems to be indicating towards toronto i
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: agree with it as well um dirty sock what's up
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: yes uh thanks for hanging out uh yeah i'm i'm
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: starting to get concerned about that play because i don't
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: like these public favorites but it is what it is
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: all right um NBA, we have a bunch of NBA
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: games here. I'm going to try to get through all
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: of this, maybe take a break halfway through this or something.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Then I have to talk about World Series and two
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: college football games, which I do have a decently strong
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: opinion on one of the college football games, and it
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: almost made the card for me. World Series game is
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: definitely not going to, so unfortunately I will probably not
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: be giving out any plays on the World Series, but
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. I need a good enough
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: angle to actually play it, and I just haven't found it. NBA,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I think we have some good angles here. Not in
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: this first game, though. Miami at Atlanta. Miami owned four
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: to start the season in the Giannis era, but they're
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: not this bad. Like, this is a Miami team that
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: should get into the playoffs at the very least. Like,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: having Giannis alone should get you there. It's just, you know,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: they're not playing well as a team right now. But
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: they should be really good, like, on the interior between
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Giannis and out of bio and whatever, bomb, whatever. But yeah, 0-4,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off another loss where we had Miami
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: here on the show in that game. The loss is
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: a favorite at home to Dallas. And I talk about
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: how when teams lose as a favorite, they do have
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a tendency to bounce back after that. Now Miami hasn't
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: faced that easy of a schedule. Two of their losses
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: are to legitimate teams, Minnesota and Detroit. Miami may serve
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: them well to just go out on the road for
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: a game here. forget about how bad they're looking right now.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Bounce back spot could be in order here for them.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: They played better in that Dallas game than it looks
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: like on the scoreboard. Miami led the majority of that
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: game and they were covering for some of the game
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: as well. And they were, it looked like they were
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: set to cover that game in the fourth quarter too.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: And they completely imploded. Um, But yeah, I'm going to
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: be leaning towards Miami in this one. The public won't
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with an 0-4 team, Giannis or not.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is coming off two losses, but they might get
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: more credit for that because they played Houston close in
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: both losses. So they actually did play pretty well against
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: a pretty strong Houston team. Now Atlanta is technically returning home.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: although they only played one of those games on the
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: road at Houston, but they're returning home from that. They
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: might be looking ahead because they have Cleveland tomorrow, and
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has been better than Miami has. Cleveland is better
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: than Miami. So Atlanta may look ahead to that Cleveland game.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think this is a Miami spot. I
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: would lean that way in this game. This one is
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: not on my card or anything, but it's not my
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: weakest opinion either. Miami's getting the money here. 60% of
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 85% of the cash on them. They're a 3.5-point
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: underdog as well, so you get Miami. I think at
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: kind of a discounted price because of their bad start
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: at 0-4, I think they're better than that would suggest.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I think they could definitely compete in this game, possibly
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: get their first win, which if you're playing a 3.5-point underdog,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: you better think they have a pretty good chance to
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: win the game. You know what I mean? Getting those
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: extra points is like a little bit of cushion there,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I would take the points with Miami if
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I was going to play this one. The market seems
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: to agree with it. And we got our win yesterday
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: easily with a winless team. So, you know, these winless
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: teams that aren't actually horrific teams, there tends to be
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: some value looking towards those teams. So that's what we
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: got going on there. Washington at Cleveland. Washington, we have
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: yet to see DeBonsai. He's still hurt. I don't know
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: if he's playing in this game or not. I don't
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: know when his debut is going to be. He's not
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: listed on the injury report here. It doesn't look like
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: so yet. My guess is he is going to make
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: his debut here tonight. So the number one overall draft pick,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: I think, is going to appear in this game tonight.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. That might be a little bit
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: of a chemistry concern, though, for Washington. DeBonsa having not played,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: you know, he might have to, like, get used to it.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: And there might be, like, an issue there getting him
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: up to speed. So that would be a concern if
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: you like Washington here. Washington is playing a third straight
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: road game here. They lost to Charlotte in their last game,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: which is, you know, I mean, Charlotte– They're mediocre at
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: best right now, I would say. But yeah, as far
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: as Washington, yeah, Washington, they played all right in that game,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I guess. I mean, it's not a horrible loss for them.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Let's just put it that way. This Washington team, I mean,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: they're not that bad. I mean, they have Anthony Davis,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: who is healthy, at least for now. Trey Young. They
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: got some star power here. People just overlook this team
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: because of how bad they've been recently. But I think they're...
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Not as bad this year, at least. And DeBonsa will
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: help their scoring for sure. I think their defense is
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: going to be a bit of a concern. I mean,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Young and DeBonsa, these guys don't play defense like Anthony
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Davis does. But the guard defense is going to be
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: pretty bad from this Washington team. Maybe that's a problem
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Cleveland is a team with good guard play.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's coming up a nice win, though, over the Minnesota T-Wolves.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: I would not really want to back Cleveland off of
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: that pretty good overtime win against a good Minnesota team.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: And they do have Atlanta on deck tomorrow, and Atlanta
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: is probably a team that will grab more of your
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: attention than Washington will because Atlanta is always one of
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: those teams that sneaks into the playoffs at the very least.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: I don't like the spot for Cleveland, really, so I'd
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: still lean towards Washington here. Cleveland's a 10.5-point favorite. The
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: money is all over Cleveland, though, and I don't really
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: understand it. 72% of the tickets are on Washington. Is
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the public really coming in and playing Washington here? That
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like it would be the reality here. I
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: don't really understand that. Cleveland, 72% of the cash. I
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: don't really understand it. Again, they opened 10. 10.5 showed
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: up at some books, but the numbers... primarily nine and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: a half now so some money seems like it has
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: kind of come in and driven that line down a
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: little bit so I don't know my lean would be
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Washington there but I don't feel good about that one
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: at all I think Miami is definitely a stronger opinion
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: than that one uh Charlotte is at Detroit uh Charlotte
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: like I said they just beat Washington the other day
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: now they're going out on the road here Not a
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: horrible spot for Charlotte, starting a road trip with a
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum. They'll be focused to play Detroit here.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Detroit's a little bit banged up right now, though, so
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: that's something Detroit played yesterday, of course, and lost badly
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: as we had the Knicks on the show yesterday. But
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: this Detroit team, you've got to worry about their injury
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: situation right now. Durin, I'm pretty sure, did not play yesterday,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: or he hasn't been playing recently at least. But, I
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: don't know, it looks like they are. healthy anyway right
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: now though i don't see any injury designations here um
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: duran is out though so i don't know why he's
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: not listed as out in the depth chart there so
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: yeah duran hasn't played since the second game so he
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: is one of their better players that's a little bit
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: of an issue there for detroit so somebody keep in
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: mind detroit is not fully healthy right now uh but
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: they still have kade cunningham there and he is their
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: best player um let me look at the injury report
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: real quick Yeah, I mean, it's mostly just Darren, although
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: there are definitely some significant injuries on the side of
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Charlotte here with Knipple still not back. One of the
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: best names out there. And Kobe White still, I don't believe,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: has played yet either this year. And I guess they
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: have Grant Williams. Is that the Grant Williams? Yeah, I
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: think that is him. A former Celtic, I believe. Grant Williams.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Unless there's another guy named Grant Williams. I don't know.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: But whatever, things to keep in mind. I don't know
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: what to do with this game, though. Detroit's on the back-to-back.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: They got embarrassed yesterday. But, you know, a team on
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back a lot of times will be undervalued coming
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: into the next game, although I almost never play on
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: them because I still don't like that situation. Detroit's playing
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: a third game in four days, fourth game in six days,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. That doesn't make it any easier.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: They have to go right back out on the road
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: after this, which also doesn't make it easier. But they're
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: only playing Brooklyn, which... Who cares? Although Brooklyn almost beat
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the Celtics yesterday, but still. Yeah, Detroit, I don't expect
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: them to be looking ahead to that at the very least.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Detroit did also take their first loss yesterday, though, and
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: sometimes that has a hangover effect. When you're rolling and
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: then you take your first loss, it's like a momentum stopper,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: and sometimes that will hang you over, so... Yeah, overall,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: I probably would lean towards taking the points with Charlotte here,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: I guess, with the rest edge here. Um.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Detroit still got up for that game against, against the
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Knicks and just fell way short. You know, um, the
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: money seems to agree with this one. Charlotte, 56% of tickets,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: 92% of the cash on them. There are six and
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a half point dog here. So the line looks a
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: little short, really like it looks kind of easy to
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: play Detroit again. That's because they're on the back to back,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: but it also looks way too easy, um, to play
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit here. Uh, so, you know, um, We'll see what
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: happens in this game. It is a low total, too.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: It's one of the lowest you'll see in the NBA, 215, basically.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: So that means the points are worth a little bit
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: more in this game. Detroit's a good defensive team, but, yeah,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: defense doesn't cover spreads on its own. So taking the points,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit more valuable in a game like that,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: although you're not getting that many points there. But I
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: think I'd leave Charlotte. New Jersey, yeah, Zach, we're fading
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: New Jersey today. No Hellebook today. No, fuck the Devils.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I like Hellebook, but I don't like the Devils. Why
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: would I be a fan of the fucking Devils? They're
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: a satanic team. I don't give a shit. Fuck them.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: They're a New York area team. No, I mean, I'm
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: not a fan of them. Whatever. I'm definitely not a
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: fan of them today because we're fucking fading their ass today.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: So they're in a horrible spot and Hellbook is not
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: playing for them today. So, yeah, fuck those guys. All right.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at Indiana is the first game in this ESPN doubleheader.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, ESPN has given us a couple of kind
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: of ugly games here on this doubleheader. There aren't really
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: any great games in the NBA today. A lot of
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: the games are kind of mismatches in a way, so
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: there isn't any epic matchup here in any of these games.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: It's basically good team versus bad team in most of
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: these games. In fact, Miami Atlanta might be the best
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: game here um So, yeah, that game not being on
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: ESPN seems like an oversight. I guess it's because Miami's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: 0-4 or whatever, but it seems like that game maybe
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: should be an ESPN game. But ESPN's going with the
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Sixers against Halliburton here, which, you know, it's not the
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: worst game to put on TV, I guess. Indiana's coming
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: off a bad loss to the Bucs in their last game,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: so this could be a bounce back for Indiana here.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I think people don't realize... that Indiana's still fairly good
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: because Hal Burton's been injured for the majority of the
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: last couple of seasons. He's not injured right now. So
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: this Indiana team is pretty competitive. And, you know, with
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: this lineup of theirs, they made the finals a couple
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: of years ago. So, you know, and they were in
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the mix the year before that too, right? When the
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Celtics bounced them, you know, whenever that was. So yeah,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: this Indiana team is not that bad, but they're coming
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: off an ugly loss to Milwaukee. I think maybe they
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: were looking ahead. They blew up Brooklyn the game before that,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: which is a win I gave out on the show.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: It could have been a letdown or something like that.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: They had to play on a back-to-back with Philadelphia upcoming
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. I think they looked right past Milwaukee. It
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for them, so this looks like
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: a bounce back to me. Philadelphia may be in a
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: less advantageous spot here because they're coming off their first loss,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: and you know I talk about that. When a team
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: takes their first loss, a lot of times they get
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit hung over into the next game. That
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: was a big game for them against Detroit. And while
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: they lost by double digits and they have extra rest here,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: they haven't played since Sunday, I'm not so sure they're
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: going to turn it around in this particular game. It's
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: a single-game road trip to Indiana, which is a little
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: bit weird. It's only Philadelphia's second road game of the season.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: The one that they won was at New York, and
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: it was a close game. But, you know, New York,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: they were celebrating their banner raising and whatever, so it
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: wasn't a great spot, really, for the Knicks there. And
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: the Knicks have a revenge game coming up next against Philadelphia.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: So Philadelphia might be looking ahead because they're playing the
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Knicks again next. So I like Indiana in this one.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: This kind of looks like a sandwich that Philadelphia is in.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: This one has not made the cut for me. But, yeah,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: this game is definitely Indiana or pass for me. And
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: it looks way too easy to play Philadelphia at minus 4.5.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: even though they don't look like they're entirely the public
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: side here, 63% of the tickets on them, 85% of
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: the cash. So the money seems to be on Philly.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: I do not agree with that. This game is definitely
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Indiana or pass Indiana. Take the points with the Pacers
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: or pass this game. This is the strongest opinion that
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I have so far on the board, but I have
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: three games that I like better than this one. So
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: this game has not made the cut for me, but
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I like it a reasonable amount. I think this would
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: be my next play that I might consider putting on
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: the card. I would be taking the points with Indiana here. Sorry,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of the Devils, man. And again,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: we got to root against them today because we're going
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: to be on Colorado here. also why would I like
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: an Eastern Conference foe I'm a fan of the Bruins
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: here man fuck all the teams in New York except
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: for maybe the Islanders because they're not a threat in
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: any way more baseball yeah I mean I kind of
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: just want it to be over to be honest like
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not finding any good plays to make there even
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: though I've been right about the total in all the
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: games of the series until last night when we would
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: have gotten a lucky push on the over in the
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: game last night but whatever um i mean it was
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: yeah it was an entertaining game because it went into
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: extra innings last night but i don't know i mean
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: i'm at this point i just want milwaukee to put
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: an end to it i'm just done with it man
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: but speaking of all that i forgot to mention that
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: we're in the equinox right now the major sport equinox
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: which i've forgotten to mention on the show when you
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: have all four major sports in action simultaneously And we
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: do have that happening today. Basketball, football, hockey, and baseball
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: are all happening today. Although the NFL is not happening today,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: but college football is, but we did have a, an
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: actual Equinox day. The other day, we're all four professional
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: major sports were in action all at once. Um, but
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: we're in the Equinox man until the, until the world
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: series ends, it's the Equinox. So the Equinox is being
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: prolonged right now by a Tampa Bay winning yesterday. So yeah. Um,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: And college basketball will not be starting while the World
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Series is still going on. I think the World Series, yeah,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: even if it goes seven, I think it's going to
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: end like one or two days before college basketball. All right.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Next game is Orlando and Toronto. We won with Orlando
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: in their last game. They pulled off an upset of
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: the Knicks. Orlando, that was their first game without Ponchero.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: That's how I'm going to continue to pronounce his name.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't care. It was a good
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: spot to play Orlando. New York was in a bad spot.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: They were in some sort of sandwich spot, if I
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: remember correctly. And Orlando was in the first game without
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: their injured starter, their injured star. So Orlando definitely got
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: up for that game. They had a nice run at
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the end of the game. The Knicks blew the game.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: But Orlando, you know, they were hanging around and had
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: a chance to cover all game and then made a
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: nice run late to get the outright win. So we
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: had Orlando on the show in that game. Now Orlando's
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: coming off that big win. I think it could be
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot for them after this, even though Toronto
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: likely to be a playoff team this year. They're playing well.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Beating the Knicks is big, man. And second game without
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: your injured player, a lot of times you do have
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: a bit of a step backwards. You know what I mean?
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: After you put in that massive effort without him, a
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: lot of times you do just have a letdown after
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: that for that reason too. So this looks like a
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Orlando here. as much as they might
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: want to get up for Toronto and as much as
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Orlando got their first win in their last game. And
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: sometimes when you get your first win, that will give
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: you momentum moving forward. But I would prefer to be
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: on Toronto in this game. Toronto just got blown out
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: by the Timberwolves in their last game. It's not that
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: bad of a loss. The T-wolves are good. Although we'll
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: talk about what's going on with them in a little bit. Toronto,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Took their first loss of the season, though, so sometimes
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: that will hang you over to the next game. And
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: what I don't like is Toronto has not been, like,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: they have not shown anything against any good teams yet.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Their wins are against Chicago and Washington, and Orlando is
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: better than both of those teams, so that's a little
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: bit of a concern here. But even without Banchero, I
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: think they are. And it is a return home spot
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: for Toronto, but they only were on the road Friday, Sunday,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: so that's not that big of a deal. I would
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: prefer to be on Toronto in this game, though. I
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: think primarily the situation here is it's a letdown for Orlando.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Toronto looks like, you know, a little bit worrisome as
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: a possible public dog here. 63% of the tickets on them,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: but it looks like the money, or no, sorry, they're
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: a favorite. What am I saying? Why would they be
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: a dog? Yeah, they're a favorite. Never mind. 63% of
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the tickets on them, but 70% of the cash on them.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: So the money may indeed be agreeing with me on
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Toronto here. It's hard to say right now. If you
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: want Toronto, you've got to lay about four and a
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: half or five, but I think that is what I
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: would do in this game. I think I would lay
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: the points with Toronto in that one if I was
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: going to play it. All right. Next game up is
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: going to be one of my plays. How many games
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: in are we here? Five games in. All right, we'll
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: do this one. Then I'm halfway through the NBA. I'll
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: do hydration break, and then I'll finish the show. Does
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: that make sense? Yeah, it probably does. That'll be about
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the halfway point of the show.
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it. This next game is one of
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: my plays, though, and the market does not agree with
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: this one, but I think it's right.
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: This one is hideous, and this is probably my least
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: favorite of these, and nobody's going to want this one.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: Nobody's going to like this one. I mean, this one,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: we have to back a really bad team here. The
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bulls plus seven and a half. I think we
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: got to do it here, man. We're fading the Knicks, which,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: you know, the Knicks are sitting at 1-3, and we
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: know they're better than that. I mean, they're the returning champs.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: They're still one of the best teams in the league,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: but this is not an advantageous spot for them. They're
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: on a back-to-back. They're playing a third game in four days.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: They're playing a fourth game in six days with travel
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: between the first and second and between yesterday and today.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: They're having to go from New York all the way
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: out to Chicago for this. Starting a two-game road trip,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: but when it's a two-game road trip, sometimes teams will
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: just put more focus into the bigger of the two games,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: and you know which one is the bigger of the
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: two games. Look at who they have to play next.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: The 76ers, who are the team that spoiled their opening
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: game this year and their banner-raising ceremony. So you know
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: the Knicks, they want that game against the Sixers. I
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: think the Knicks might look right past the Bulls here.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Knicks got that huge blowout win yesterday against Detroit. This
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: is pretty clearly a sandwich spot here, so I don't
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: really understand what the market is doing here. Other than
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the fact that you know that you're going to get
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: less value making this play because the Knicks are going
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: to get docked a couple of points in the line
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: because they're on the back-to-back. So you know that the
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers will do that. If the Knicks were not on
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back, this line would probably be like 9.5. But still,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: you're getting a decent amount of points with Chicago here.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: You're above that key number. key number of seven in basketball,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: where teams stop intentionally fouling when they're down seven, because
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: it's a three-possession game instead of two. But yeah, I mean,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: this reads as a sandwich spot to me. That was
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: a big win, very satisfying win for the Knicks yesterday. Now,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: it did give them their first win of the season,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: and sometimes that will give you you know new positive
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: momentum but everything else about the spot looks bad looks
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: like a letdown spot looks like a look ahead spot
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: they have no rest here and the bulls are at
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: least going to try to show up for this you
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: would have to think i mean they're playing against the
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: returning champs here the bulls do have one win in
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: here they won on the road against milwaukee which i
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: know that's Not a good win, but whatever. The Bulls,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, they got blown out in their
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: last game against the Celtics the other day. So the
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Bulls do not look good right now. And yes, I
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: realize the two good teams that they've played, Toronto and
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: the Celtics, both annihilated them. I get that. So there
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: is the worry they might get annihilated here. The Bulls,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: their defense is a nightmare. It's really, really bad. But
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: this spot is awful, dude. It is awful. And, you know,
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: if the Knicks are going to maybe kind of play
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit more of a slower tempo type of
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: game here. And Knicks are worrying about maybe being fatigued,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: worried about the huge game they have on deck. Yeah,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I'll do it. I'll take all these points with Chicago
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: at home here in a spot like this. Chicago, you
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: got to think they're going to put in a better
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: effort after that embarrassing performance last time. And yes, I
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: know their defense is awful. I get it. They've allowed
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: 124 or more in every game so far. I know
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: that's bad. I understand that. But I think Chicago's offense
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: certainly has room for improvement here at this point. They
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: do still have offensive ability here on this team, so
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I say we do it. The Knicks are getting all
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: the money, though, which does really worry me. 53% of tickets,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: 91% of the cash on them, but I just don't
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: understand it. I don't get it. They've gone up from 6.5
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: to 7, 7.5 here.
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: Whatever.
• 41:04
  Speaker 7: Whatever.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Looks like a pretty major sandwich spot to me, so
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: we'll take Chicago. Don't like being against the market. Maybe
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: the market will change because this is a night game,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: so the market might shift throughout the day and might
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: wind up agreeing with me. I wouldn't count on it
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: with how it looks right now, but it's possible. But
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: I'm just going with my situational read, man. Usually I
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: want to agree with the market. Typically I will, and
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: typically the market read in something like this will keep
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: me off of it. Not in this one. The situation
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: seems strong to me, so Chicago makes the cut for me.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: It's real, real ugly, but that's what I do, man.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: We're going to do it. I think it's a horrible
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: spot for the Knicks, and yeah, that's what I got
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: on that game. Of course, this one's going to come
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: back as a loser, and I'll be pissed that I
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: tried to force it, but yeah. Bulls, let's hope it's
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: not bullshit, but yeah, we'll take the Bulls there. I'm
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: going to go hydration break. I'll be back, and then
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Two more NBA plays I'm going to give out and
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: also talk about World Series and college football in a
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: few minutes.
• 42:34
  Speaker 7: Bye.
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: Next up is Houston, Milwaukee.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I don't have much on this game. Milwaukee is coming
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: off that win over the Pacers. That was their first
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: win of the season, so that could give Milwaukee a
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum, finally breaking their winless status here.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's still trying to figure things out with their new
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: pieces here. They should get up for this game. Houston's
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: pretty good, so I think Milwaukee will get up for this,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: even though they do have Cleveland on deck, which is
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: also a big game, but it looks like an okay
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: spot to me for Milwaukee. um houston maybe the team
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: more like could overlook this houston's undefeated to start the
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: season here houston's look pretty good they have one really
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: good win at at san antonio but i think that
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: was a neutral site game but yeah uh since then
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: they beat atlanta twice i don't know what to really
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: take away from that i like this houston team i
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: think they're good uh they do have one of their
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Texas rivals on deck don't Dallas even if Dallas hasn't
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: been playing that well there's still the potential they look
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: ahead to that because the Bucs like really aren't gonna
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: draw many teams focus here so yeah I think the
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: Bucs are probably the side to lean towards here money
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: not agreeing with this one at all either 54% of
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Milwaukee. I highly doubt that. I
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: don't see why the public would be leaning towards Milwaukee
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: in any way in this game. It makes no sense
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: to me. So I don't think that that number is
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: at all accurate. 80% of the cash on Houston. They're
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: up from 7.5 to 8.5 here, but I would only
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: take the points in this one. It's not really that
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: high of a total either. It's in the 220s. And yes,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: I know the total's a bit high in that Chicago game,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: game but i'm still doing it anyway as bad as
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: their defense is i'm still gonna do it because of
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: because of the spot um but yeah this one i
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: would lean towards milwaukee i don't get what's going on
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: with the with the market and some of these games
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: here man um yeah you gotta take it with a
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of a grain of salt i guess next
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: game up is one of my plays uh we have
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: a couple of situations i kind of like to look
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: for here coming up in this game here.
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: You want to know what i'm betting.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this one we're going to lay a favorite price here.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: We're going to lay the points with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Three and a half at a discounted price here against
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: the awful Golden State Warriors and overrated Golden State Warriors.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: And the reason why this line is so short is
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: because Anthony Edwards is injured. So, you know, that's part
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: of the reason why I want to do this. It's
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: an injured player theory spot. You know the deal. First
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: game when your star player is out injured. You get
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: a discounted line on that team, and the team usually
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: steps up their effort and plays better. So I think
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: that's what we're going to get out of Minnesota. And
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's a good team anyway, so I think they can
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: kind of account for that. And they've still got good
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: players on this team. You're getting a shorter line because
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: of it. Edwards, I don't know what the deal is
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: with him, man, because I don't think it's even a
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: recent injury. So I don't know why they let him
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: even start the season. He needs arthroscopic knee surgery, and
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: they're saying he's only going to be out for, I
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: don't know, month or two I don't understand what's going
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: on and why they wouldn't have done that during the
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: offseason because I don't think it's a recent injury so
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: I don't understand but I still think this is an
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: injured player spot still because this is his first game
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: out due to injury so that's what we're going to
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: look at here Minnesota is coming off their first loss
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: of the season I know sometimes that will hang you
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: over into the next game and it is a little
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: bit concerning because it was two days ago it was
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: an overtime game against Cleveland so it was a pretty
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: big game But still, Cleveland was supposed to win that
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: game because they were the favorite. I don't think this
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: is going to be a hangover spot, though. I think
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Golden State, because they still have that pedigree there, coming
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: off a loss, and because Edwards is out, I still
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: think Minnesota will show up and give an effort here.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: And their next game is only against the Clippers, so
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: who cares? Golden State, you know, it's still Steph Curry,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: it's still the Warriors, so I think they will still
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: get up for this game against Golden State, and I
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: know Minnesota's returning home, but only from a single game
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Minnesota has only played one game at home
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: so far, and they absolutely destroyed Toronto in that game,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: and I think Toronto at this point is probably better
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: than Golden State, so... Minnesota, they've been good at home
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: so far based on that one game sample. Golden State,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: they do have one win on the road, but that
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: was their most recent game. They went into elevation, upset Denver.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: This looks like a major letdown, man. I get that
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: it's Minnesota here, but you might pay a little bit
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: less attention to Minnesota when Edwards is out. And Golden
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: State has revenge against the Lakers next, so that's kind
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: of a big game too against the Lakers. I'm not
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: going to say they're going to completely overlook Minnesota here,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: but If they were going to, it would be in
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: a spot like this. Big upset for Golden State in
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: that game against Denver. I don't know how that even happened.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: But if you dig into this game, it was completely misleading, dude.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: Golden State hit 22 three-pointers. So, yeah, they hit 12
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: more threes than Denver in the game. So they were
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: plus 30. 36 from three-point range. That is not going
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: to happen again. And they shot 50% from three. Absolutely ridiculous.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: And yes, they did somehow dominate the rebound battle. So
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: I will give you that. There were some things about
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: this game where they did actually outplay the Nuggets in
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: some aspects of this game, but Still, the shooting disparity
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: from three was absolutely ridiculous. So I think the Warriors
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: are definitely in a regression spot here. Not only is
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: it a letdown after going into elevation and pulling off
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: a major upset against Denver, but yeah, the fact that
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: they hit that many threes and it's almost going to
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: be impossible to repeat. Minnesota plays good defense. I say
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: good luck to them here. I know it was Golden
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: State's first win, and sometimes that will give you momentum
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: coming off of that, but that's not the only thing
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: I look for. We get the injured player theory working
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: for us here. I think it's a huge letdown for
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Golden State. Minnesota is getting the money here, so the
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: market seems to agree with this. 57% of the tickets
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: are on Golden State. Maybe that's accurate.
• 50:19
  Speaker 7: I don't know.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: But what I think is accurate is the real money
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: is agreeing with me on this one on Minnesota. 88%
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: of the cash. 3.5% because Edwards is out. Let's do it.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Let's take the better team, Minnesota, at a very discounted
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: price here in what I think is a decent spot
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: to fade Golden State. So let's do it. Minnesota, minus
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: three and a half in that one. Andy, what's up, man?
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. All right. Next up is, where
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: am I? Oh, yeah.
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Well, let's continue the best bet segment. Denver at New Orleans.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: This one might seem like kind of a square side
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: or whatever, but the spot looks quite good to me
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: to do this. We're going to lay the points with
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: the Denver Nuggets in this one, minus four and a half.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Unlike me to have three favorites on the board out
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: of four plays, but I like this one too. I
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: think this is a good bounce back spot for Denver, man.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: After that game that I just showed you, Denver lost
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: as a massive favorite at home against Washington, or excuse me,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: against Golden State, excuse me, the Warriors. And you know,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: I talk about it all the time. When a team's
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: a big favorite and they lose, they tend to be
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: in a bounce-back spot after that. I think it's actually
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: a good thing they're going out on the road here.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Just forget about what's been happening at home. Everybody's going
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: to complain because Denver's 1-2, and they could easily be
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: 0-3 because they almost lost the game that they won
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: at home. Their two losses are... One is to the Thunder. So,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, did you really think Denver was going to
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: go in and beat the Thunder? I don't really think so.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: And then I think they were a little bit hungover
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: because they played pretty well against the Thunder in that game.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: I think they were hungover in the next game and
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: they almost lost to the Pelicans in the next game
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: at home.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Guess who is it that they're playing today? Let's take
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: a guess. Who's Denver playing today? Oh, yeah, it's the
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: New Orleans Pelicans. So I think Denver, after a bad
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: loss at home and the game before that, they almost
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: lost and got taken into overtime by the Pelicans. I
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: think Denver was way behind in that game too. They
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: are not going to overlook the Pelicans after that. After
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: the Pelicans went into their place and nearly beat them,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: they will take them seriously, and especially after Denver lost
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: the next game. at home as well, and it was
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: a big-time outlier, as I showed you. Denver was minus
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: 36 from three-point range in that game. Warriors hit half
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: of their threes, hit 22 threes. You know who's not
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: going to do that? New Orleans. There's no way they're
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: going to repeat a three-point shooting performance like the Warriors
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: had there. It's not going to happen. And Denver's still
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: a pretty good defensive team too. Yeah, I think this
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: sets up really nicely. Denver's not going to overlook the
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Pelicans here. And the Pelicans have been sitting around since
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: that game against Denver. So the Pelicans, yeah, they're still
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: looking for their first win, so sure. They'll show up
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: for this game. I don't doubt that. They're coming off
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: that huge performance against Denver where they fell just short.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: That was the last time they played. They're returning home
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: from that, and I get it. They'll probably still get
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: up for this game, you know, whatever, and they only
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: got Sacramento on deck, but Denver is the better team,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: and Denver is going to be focused in this spot,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: and Denver has the adjustments to make after almost losing
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: to the Pelicans in the first game, whereas the Pelicans
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: do not have any adjustments to make. It still might
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: be kind of hung over from that lost to Denver
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: they might be a little bit actually flat coming into
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: this game coming off of that performance so yeah I
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: like Denver here I think they should be able to
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: get the job done here I think maybe the price
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: is a little bit discounted because of the way they've
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: looked so far I say we do it even though
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: New Orleans does have some decent players here in their
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: lineup whatever Denver's still the considerably better team here but
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: what was the line in this game at Denver let
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: me see Denver was an 11.5 point favorite in that game,
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: and now they're only 4.5 on the road. That's like
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: a football swing, and this is the NBA, dude. You
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: don't get that much home court advantage in the NBA.
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: You get like maybe two at most in the NBA.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: So I think if Denver was legitimately an 11.5 point
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: favorite in that first game, this line should be like 7, 7.5.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: And even if you think they were a little bit
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: overvalued in that game, okay, so this line should be
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: like 6.5. All right, so we're still getting line value
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: here with Denver. I say we do it. Let's play
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Denver in this one. I don't think I have a
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: whole lot else on that, but yeah, New Orleans, one
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: of the main reasons they played as well as they
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: did in that game against Denver, again, is because Denver,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: I think, was flat coming off that huge opener against
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: the Thunder where they hung with the Thunder for the
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: majority of that game, and it was a physical defensive
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: game too. So, yeah, this spot sets up a lot
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: better for Denver this time. We're going to do it.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: The money agrees with me on this one. 59% of
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: the tickets. Public doesn't even really seem to want this
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: Denver team right now. 91% of the cash on them.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Four and a half is about what the number is,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: maybe five. Not really a huge difference there. So, yeah,
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: I would just do it. Denver minus the points there.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: That's the last play I'm going to give out on
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: the show today. But I will talk about the rest
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: of these games here. San Antonio is at Utah. By
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: the way, I got all four NBA games right against
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: the spread yesterday. So there is also that too. All
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: of my leans on the show were correct there. Including
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: San Antonio winning in a blowout yesterday against this awful
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Sacramento team. San Antonio covered that big number in that
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: game yesterday. Now San Antonio is on a back-to-back. They're
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: having to go into elevation here to play Utah, which
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: is not really that easy to do. And they have
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Minnesota on deck, so that could be a look ahead
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: for San Antonio here. Minnesota's definitely going to be gunning
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: for them because I'm pretty sure... San Antonio's the team
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: that eliminated Minnesota last year, if I'm not mistaken. So
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: that'll be a big revenge game for Minnesota. Minnesota has
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: that upcoming in two games for them. But yeah, this
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: is a tricky spot for San Antonio. Going into high
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: elevation against this Utah team that may be a little
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: bit better than people think they are right now. Utah's
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: coming off kind of a gross loss to, I think,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: an undefeated Memphis team. I don't really understand that, but Yeah,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Utah's staying at home here. Utah's been at home for
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: like an entire week at this point. They've had a
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: bad homestand for the most part. Their only win did
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: come at home as well. Now, San Antonio by far
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: will be the best team they've faced so far, but
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: the good news for Utah is they played really well
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: against LA in their home game. The Lakers, who are
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: a decent team, and the Jazz had a huge lead
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: in that game, actually blew it later in the game,
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: but the good news is they played well for a
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: huge chunk of that game, so... I think the Jazz
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: do have the ability to cover this number, and that's
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the way that I would look in this one. It
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't make the cut for me, but you're getting a
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: huge amount of points here. San Antonio's like a 13-point
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: favorite in this one, so yeah, I would lean towards
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: taking the points with Utah here. Utah looks like kind
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: of a public side, although I highly doubt that. 66%
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: of tickets on them, 65% of the cash. Do you
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: really think the public is playing Utah? I mean, I
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: understand this line is big, but Why would the public
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: be on Utah at all here? And they're a one-win team.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I don't see that being reality. So, you know, I mean,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know where these numbers are coming from exactly.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man. But I think I usually
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: have a good gauge on what the public thinks and
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: where they're going to be. And, yeah, I don't think
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: it's on Utah in this one. So I would lean
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Utah here. Even if the public is on their side,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: just the situation I think favors them a little bit.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: The other ESPN game is Oklahoma City at Dallas. Dallas,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: of course, because it's a Miriam Adelson-owned team. They get
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: the ESPN billing here. It's obvious why the Thunder do,
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: because they're one of the best teams in the league.
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: Although the Thunder are now without Jalen Williams for probably
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: the rest of the season. Really, really bad. That horrible
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: leg injury the other day. It was a dislocated ankle
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: and a broken fibula. He's going to need his leg reconstructed, basically.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: He's going to have to be a cyborg out there
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: when he comes back. Absolutely crazy, horrible, and a big
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: loss for Oklahoma City. But Mitchell stepped up his game
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: in their last game, so as long as Mitchell stays healthy,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's still going to be a very formidable team.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be able to win
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: the championship, though, without Williams also there, but we'll see.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Thunder is still a very good team, though. There's no
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: doubt about that. They're coming off beating the Suns. They're
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: undefeated right now, 4-0. But they've only played one game
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: on the road, but it was a win against the Spurs,
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: and we had a winner on the show in that
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: game as well. That was a big revenge game for
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City. But for this game, going out on the
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: road to play Dallas, Looks a little bit tricky to
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: me for the Thunder here, and they do have a
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: bigger game on deck against Houston before they play Cleveland twice,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: so I think it is possible they overlook Dallas here
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: and Dallas getting the home billing here on ESPN might
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: get up a little bit more for this game Dallas
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: just won in Miami and they're returning home from that
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: so I don't really want Dallas either here because they're
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: coming up with a nice upset win which I'm mad
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: about because we lost in that game And Cooper Flagg
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: did come back and play in that game, but reverse
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: hit your player there. I still liked fading Dallas in
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: that game. Didn't happen, but Dallas is going to get
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: up for this game nonetheless. Dallas has only played one
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: home game so far, but... They played San Antonio, who's
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: like the most comparable team power rating-wise to Oklahoma City,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: and Dallas did not do that well in that game, obviously.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: So that's a little bit of a concern with Dallas here,
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: that when they've stepped up in class, they haven't done well.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: They lost to Houston and San Antonio, and those are
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: the best teams they've played so far. But their wins
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: were against decent teams, though, Indiana and Miami. I know
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: Miami's winless, but I don't think they're that bad.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: But.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is one of the best teams in the league, though,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: so Dallas may still struggle in this game. I don't
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: like the fact that Dallas is coming off an upset win.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Usually I'm going to fade a team when that's the case,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: although I'm still going to lean Dallas here, but I
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: don't like it enough to put it on the card
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: or anything like that, obviously. 61% of the tickets, 83%
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Dallas. Oklahoma City's a six-point favorite here.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: To me, it looks way too easy to play Oklahoma
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: City at a price like that. It looks like a
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: small price. on Oklahoma City, so I don't know. Maybe
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: Dallas is starting to get some respect here. I sort
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: of think this Dallas team is particularly good, but yeah,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: the line, reading it to that, it looks way too
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: easy to play Oklahoma City, so I would not do that.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards the dog in that one, towards Dallas.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: And then we have the Battle of L.A., which is
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: what I put in the show description because I'm like, well,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: what game is even big here? The World Series game
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: is big, but when I set up the show, yesterday's
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: game wasn't even over yet, and it looked like Tampa
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: might lose. So I did not use that as the
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: show hook here today. Lakers already beat the Clippers, well,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: obviously in L.A., but in the Lakers' home arena. This
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: game is going to be at the Clippers' home arena here.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Could be maybe a little bit of revenge for the
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Clippers here. Maybe the Lakers take the Clippers a little
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: bit less seriously in this one because they did already
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: beat them, although they didn't beat them by that much.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: They only beat them by eight. But it's a tricky
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: spot for the Lakers because even though they're staying in L.A. here,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: they played at home yesterday. They lost to Portland, which
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: I called on the show yesterday. I said I liked
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: Portland in that game. The Lakers took their first loss
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: of the season, so... That could hang you over into
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: the next game. Plus, they're on a back-to-back. Lakers do
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: play Golden State next, and Golden State still might draw
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: more of your attention than the Clippers will. Lakers already
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: beat both teams this year, but Golden State is still
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry. Again, you know what I mean? So, the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: Clippers are, you know, whatever. Darius Carlin. I mean, he's
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: a good player. No, um... No knock on him, but
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have the name recognition of Steph Curry. You
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? So, yeah, I don't know. The
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Lakers still may very well overlook this game. They're on
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: a back-to-back possible hangover after losing their first game of
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: the season here. Clippers might be able to make some
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: adjustments after losing to the Lakers the first time, as
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: bad as this Clipper team is. But they've been actually
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: competitive in both of their losses. Clippers' losses were to
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: the Lakers by 8 and by 7 at Oklahoma City.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: So this Clipper team has actually played pretty well so far,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: but that's also kind of my problem with this is
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: that even though the Clippers have a bunch of rest here,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: they played Oklahoma City really tough in their most recent game,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: so I don't really want the Clippers after they did that.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: After they put up a big fight against one of
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: the best teams in the league as a big underdog
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: on the road, I can't come in and do it.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: And they're returning home from a road trip, although it
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: was a quick road trip, so I don't consider it
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: to be that bad. Because, you know, I talk about
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: these when you have a long road trip, a lot
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: of times it leads to distractions coming back home. We
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: haven't had that yet in the NBA because the season
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: is new. But I don't think that's going to be
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: the case here. But I do worry about the Clippers
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: coming up that massive effort against the Thunder. So I'm
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: staying away from this one. I'll slightly lean Clippers here. Clippers,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know how they have 65% of the tickets.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's accurate either. I think the Lakers
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: should be the public side here. But the real money
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: may very well be on the Clippers. 87% of the
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: cash is on them. That may be a little bit
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: more of an accurate representation of what is actually going
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: on here. Lakers are a 5.5-point favorite. I think at home,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: I think the Lakers are about 8, I want to say,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: or something like that, against the Clippers. Maybe I'm wrong
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: about that. Hold on. Actually, I should look just to
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: see how the market has changed here. Let me see.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, both teams are still in their home arena. Yeah,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: I was about right. It was about 8.5. So given
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: that and given how little home court advantage I think
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: the Clippers have, yeah, I mean, this line seems to
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: be about accurate based on that other line. So, yeah.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: I'd lean towards the Clippers plus the points in that
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: one very slightly. Don't love it. Who wins the World Series?
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, Milwaukee's up 3-1, so obviously I would have
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: to say Milwaukee. Like, Milwaukee's probably still minus 3,000 or
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: something to win the series. They only have to win
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: one of the next three games, so I have to
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: say Milwaukee. I mean, the odds are strongly in their favor,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: and history is on their side as well. I mean,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: no team has come back from down 0-3 to win
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: the series except for the Red Sox in what was
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: a huge rivalry, so... I don't see Tampa doing that.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: That was a Red Sox team that was absolutely stacked,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: which this Tampa Bay team is not. And Tampa Bay
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: does not have two elite starters like the Red Sox
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: did that year either with the one-two punch of Pedro
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: Martinez and Curt Schilling. Tampa does not have that. I'm sorry.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: Drew Rasmussen is not even good against Milwaukee, and he
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: wasn't good in this series. So what's Tampa's one-two punch? Rasmussen, Martinez? Yeah, okay. Great.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: All right. Speaking of which, yeah, let's go to this
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: right now. No, I'm sober. I'm not going to do that.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: I'll drink non-alcoholic beer if that counts. I have a
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: bunch of that. Milwaukee at Tampa Bay here. Of course,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: the game went into extra innings yesterday. Tampa won by one.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: It was a horrific 12th inning, though. Like, Milwaukee was...
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: It looked like they were about to win the series,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: and then the error ruined everything in that inning. Plus,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee was out of relief pitchers. You know what I mean?
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: So they had to use Shane Drouin, and he was
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: awful in that game. But I think the mental thing
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: just kind of took effect too because he should have
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: had the first guy out, and if he got that,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: then I think he was pitching at that point. Then
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: they probably would have been able to win the series
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: if they got that first out, but instead it was
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: a bad throw by the third baseman there One hopped it,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: even saw the first baseman probably should have made that
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: play too. It was a correct, the error going to
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: the third baseman was still the correct way to score that.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: That's the way it got scored. It was a bad throw.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: First baseman still should have collected it, but that was awful,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: and that caused the inning to just go a completely
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: different way than I think it would have otherwise. But Milwaukee,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: besides draw on, their bullpen is completely elite now. Both
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: bullpens got completely used up yesterday, so there's no real
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: advantage one way or the other off of yesterday's game
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: because all the guys got into the game basically for
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: both teams. So I don't see that being an advantage
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: one way or the other here in this game. And
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: we know that Jacob Mizurowski is pitching for Milwaukee in
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: this one. He is their best pitcher. I mean, he
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: was elite this year, 1.8 ERA,. 8 whip. He wasn't
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: as good on the road, but still 2.15 road ERA, really,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: really good still. He was a little bit shaky in
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: really kind of his first two starts here this postseason.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: I think he pitched at least once last postseason. The
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: worry about him is he's really young, still inexperienced, but
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: he pitched well in his first game in this series.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: So he seems to be, you know, he seems to
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: be developing that experience and not... He doesn't seem to
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: be getting thrown off by the big stage at this point.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? I was worried because he
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: walked three guys against the Dodgers in that series. He
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: pitched okay against San Diego in the wildcard round. No,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: divisional round, excuse me, divisional round. But in this series,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: he had his best start of the postseason against Tampa Bay,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: where he finally went five innings. So he obviously has
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: the ability to do that again, and he did not
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: throw that many pitches either. Mizorowski's usually kind of inefficient
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: because he strikes out a lot of guys, and sometimes
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: he is walk-heavy. But Mizorowski only threw 78 pitches in
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: that one. So he's pretty rested here, and he's on
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: basically normal rest here. So I think he should be
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: able to do well here. And he does have good
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: numbers against Tampa in general. They have 41 at-bats against them,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: a 220 average, 590 OPS. Those are weak offensive numbers.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: 9-3 strikeout walk ratio. So I think Mizurowski should pitch
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: well in this one. And then the worry is going
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: to be Milwaukee's bullpen after having to use them yesterday.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: But you have to worry about the same thing with
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. So I think that becomes a wash as well.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's bullpen is a little bit better. Yes, non-alcoholic beer.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: MVP for the World Series. I mean, Mizurowski already has
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: a win. If Mizurowski gets the win in this game
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: and they win the Super Bowl, it's going to be
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: between him and... Why can't I remember his name now? So, well, wait,
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: hold on a minute. There's one guy who has 10
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: hits in a World Series, right? Which is, hold on,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: let me see. I think it's somebody on Milwaukee, but
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: let me take a look real quick. Hold on, I
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: don't want to get this wrong here. Is it Churrio?
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: He had two hits yesterday. Hold on, let me see.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: I know there's one guy who did something that only
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: Babe Ruth has ever done in history, and it's get
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: 10 hits in the first four games of a World Series.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: So whoever that is is also in the running for
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: um for the mvp in the series here and i
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: believe it is sureio but let me um let me
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: make sure of that hold on how can i how
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: can i make sure of that i'm looking at the
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: game locks here right now i guess let me see
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: um yeah yeah that's definitely what i was thinking of
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: yeah you can see it right here he has at
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: least two hits in every game in the series um
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: so yeah he has 10 hits uh in the first
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: four games so He's in the running. Even though he
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't have a home run in the series, he's been
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: really good. Milwaukee's not really that much of a home
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: run hitting team anyway. So it's going to be somebody
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee if they win the series. I think it's
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: going to be between him and Mizurowski. If Mizurowski gets
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: a win in this game and he winds up with
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: two wins, including the clinching game, it's going to be
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: between both of them. And, you know, maybe Miguel might
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: be in the mix as well. Depending on, you know,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: if he pitches today and what he might do here.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he pitched yesterday, though, right? I wasn't totally
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: paying attention. Actually, he's definitely available today, so that's good
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. He only threw five pitches yesterday. They only
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: had him come in for one guy, and he struck
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: whoever it was out. So McGill, their closer, he should
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: be ready to go today. He only threw five pitches yesterday. So...
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: and had a five pitch strikeout. So there you go.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: So he'll, he will be available in this game. Whereas Baker,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: the closer for Tampa Bay through two winnings yesterday, that
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: is a, not a good thing for Tampa. So I
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: think the bullpen edge actually goes to Milwaukee here as well.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: So I like Milwaukee in this one. Um, I know
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: I thought they would win yesterday. Uh, but I think
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: if you're going to play either team, I think Milwaukee
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: is the right side here. The problem is the price. Um,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee at minus 150. It becomes really difficult to actually
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: make that play. 74% of tickets on them, only 64%
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: of the cash. So the money is actually fading Milwaukee here.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: And they did lose their momentum possibly because they had
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: an eight game win streak, which by the way, tied.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: They're tied for the longest postseason win streak in history.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: And they could have set the record with a win yesterday,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: but it didn't happen. But all that momentum might, be
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: stalled out now. Tampa might have some new momentum after
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: that win, so that's kind of the concern if you
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: want to back Milwaukee here. But I think the primary
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: reason why the money's not coming in on Milwaukee here
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: is the price. You have to pay too much for
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: Mizurowski here. But I still think Milwaukee may be the
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: right side here. I would rather have Mizurowski than... Tampa's
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpen game. That's what they're doing. They
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: used Nick Martinez pitching game one of the series. He
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: pitched yesterday for two winnings. So if he pitches again today,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: he's going to pitch a very small amount of time.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: So Tampa basically does not have a starter today, unless
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: they want to use Rasmussen on less rest, because he
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: didn't pitch yesterday. But Rasmussen pitched game two in the series,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: so if they use him here, he's on really short rest,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: and I don't really see Tampa doing that. Because Tampa
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: knows they need to win all of the remaining games anyway,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: so why would you... move Rasmussen up and possibly ruin him. Plus,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: he wasn't even good in game two, so I don't
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: think he's pitching here. I think this is a Tampa
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: bullpen game, which is not good when you're coming off
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: an extra inning game and you've used your entire bullpen yesterday.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: So I think Tampa's in a tough spot here, man.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: I really do. You could play Milwaukee first five here, though,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: if you want to back them just with Mizurowski on
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: the mound, pretty much. And it will be him versus
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: random Tampa Bay relievers, pretty much. Milwaukee should have the
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: edge there. So if you want to play Milwaukee first
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: five and lay the half run in the first five,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that. But playing the full game
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: on the money line, I don't really disagree with that either.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: The total's at six and a half, so it is
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: lower than the last couple of games because Mizurowski is
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: on the mound here. I would not play the under, though.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: If you're going to play the under at all, I
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: would only do it in the first five because the
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: bullpens are so taxed here. I think the over probably
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: makes more sense than anything else as far as the total.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: I think just going full game over makes more sense here.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: And the first game of the series should have gone over,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: and the next two did. So the series has been
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: a bit more of an over series. What are the
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: odds for the MVP? Let me see. Yeah, it would
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: be good to look at that.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 5: Hold on.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Dude, what I said is totally inaccurate, apparently,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: as far as who's going to win. William Contreras is
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: listed as the favorite to win it. It's like him
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: and Jackson Churio are both pretty close. Contreras is right
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: around minus 110, and Churio is... I don't know. Different
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: books have a lot of different options here. choreo or
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: different numbers here. Choreo is like somewhere around plus one
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: 50 probably. Um, but hold on. What, what, that makes
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: no sense here. What are the odds for, hold on
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: world series MVP. Yeah. Those are the odds, you know,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: that makes no sense to me though. Like, wait, where
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: the hell is Ms. And, uh, fucking, um, Mr. Uh,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: 10 hit man here. Um, which was, uh, dude, I'm,
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: or was that, wait, was that Churio? I'm, I'm totally
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: losing my mind here now. Is Churio the one with
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: 10 hits? So I was right about that. I just
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: don't know why Mizurowski is not, uh, in the, uh,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: in the mix here, man. I, yeah, Churio, I think
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: is the one with 10 hits, right? So I, I
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: was correct about him being, um, one of the leaders there. Yeah,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: that is him. Yeah. Churio. Um, But yeah, I'm surprised
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: Mizurowski's not even in the... Like, he's not even listed
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: on the odds here. I think he's definitely in the
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: running here, but it looks like Churrio versus Contreras is
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: kind of the deal here as far as what the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are saying. And as far as Tampa Bay, Caminero
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: has the best odds to win it for Tampa Bay,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: but he's 33-1, which, you know, I mean, obviously that's
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: not a surprise that he'd be in the mix there,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: but he got hurt at the end of the game yesterday, obviously,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: When he ran out that ground ball, the error that
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: happened in the bottom of the 12th, he hurt himself,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: and they left him in the game, and he got
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: from first to third on a single. For some reason,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: they hadn't already taken him out, but they took him
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: out after he got to third base. I don't know
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: if Caminero is going to play in this game tonight
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: or not because he hurt his leg trying to beat
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: that ball out at first base. Yes, and it turned
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: out he didn't even need to do it because it
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: wound up being an error. But he didn't know that, obviously,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: so he got a hustle. Give him credit for the hustle, man. But, yeah,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know how significant Caminero's injury was there. He
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: may very well play tonight. I don't really know. Yes, cheerio, correct.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: That's what I got on MLB there. Let's go to
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: college football here. I mean, these games look pretty ugly
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: on the surface. We've got more Conference USA going on here.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: I think Conference USA Tuesday is done after yesterday, and
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: we get Maction starting next week. That's so much better, man,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: the Mac. Although I haven't talked about the Mac too
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: much on the show, so we'll be talking about the
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: Mac more in the upcoming weeks. Tonight we've got more
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Conference USA, though. Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee on CBS
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: Sports at 7 p.m., I like Kennesaw in this one.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: Just on the surface, this looks way too easy to
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: play Middle Tennessee as they're 4-3 versus a 1-6 Kennesaw
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: team that has no wins in the conference so far,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: yet Middle Tennessee's only a 2.5-point favorite here despite being
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: at home. So you've got to think, what's up with that?
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: It looks way too easy to play Middle Tennessee here.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I can tell you, Middle Tennessee is not
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: that good, and the odds are telling you that Kennesaw
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: is probably actually the slightly better team here. And if
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: you look at the... if you look at these teams resumes,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: you can kind of understand why Kennesaw has a loss
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: to Tennessee, which obviously they were not going to win
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: that game. They lost to Liberty, uh, which, uh, I'm
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: pretty sure that, uh, Who are we talking about here?
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee has not played Liberty yet, I'm
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: pretty sure. And then Kennesaw, their other conference games were close.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: They lost by three to Arkansas State, one to Jacksonville State,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: who's one of the top teams in the conference, and
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: three to Missouri State on the road, which I believe
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: we may have... Do we have a win on the
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: show on that one? I don't remember. I forget. I
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: know we won on Missouri State in one of these
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: games recently. I forget which one. But yeah, Kennesaw, I
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: don't think they're quite as bad as their record looks.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: And I get it. Like, I don't really want to
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: actually make this a play, but I like Kennesaw on
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: this one. But they only have one win, and it's
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: against a non-FBS team, so I understand how bad that is.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: But they've been very competitive in some of these conference
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: games here. And Middle Tennessee is a lot more comparable to...
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: These teams that are not Liberty, you know what I mean?
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: Liberty's easily the best team in this conference. These other
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: teams are not as good as Liberty. And Middle Tennessee,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: I think, is absolutely worse than Jacksonville State. I think
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: they might be worse than all of these other teams.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State's not in the conference. They're in the Sun Belt.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: But I think Middle Tennessee, might be worse than Arkansas
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: State and worse than Missouri State. I don't think this
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee team is good at all. So I like
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw in this one, and they can bounce back from
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: that loss against Liberty. They got annihilated against Liberty last week,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: and everybody saw that. I expected Kennesaw to do better
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: in that game than they did, and it didn't happen.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: But this Liberty team's pretty legit. And yeah, it was
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: a legit win for them for the most part. Kennesaw
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: made it look worse with a couple of turnovers, though.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: So it was still a little bit misleading. Kennesaw probably
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: should have lost that game by more like 14 points
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: rather than closer to 30. So, you know, a little
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: bit misleading there. But for Middle Tennessee, their schedule has
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: been pretty much a cakewalk. I mean, look at their
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: wins here. They beat an FCS team, whatever, Murray State.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: They beat Nevada, who was not a good team. They
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: lost to Jacksonville State worse than Kennesaw did by 10,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: and they got obliterated by Kansas, and that was the
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: best opponent they played. Kansas is not Tennessee, so yeah.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee getting annihilated by Kansas, even worse than... Then
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw's result against Tennessee, that's not good. And then Middle
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: Tennessee beat Delaware without their starting quarterback, Minacucci, and... got
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: by them, and then they beat FIU last week. That
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: was a big upset for Middle Tennessee. They were 10
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs against FIU. The problem with
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: FIU is they don't have a good offense, so FIU
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: doesn't really have the capability to win by margin here.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: And if you look at this game, yeah, Middle Tennessee
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: did outplay them. I'm not going to deny that. They
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: outgained them by a lot, and that is kind of
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: impressive because FIU's The thing that they do really well
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: is their defense is really good, and Middle Tennessee was
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: able to put up a ton of yards against them,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: so that does concern me a little bit if you
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: want to fade Middle Tennessee here, but I'm thinking that
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: was a little bit more fluky than anything else. This
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee offense, I don't think it's really that good.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: They moved the football against Delaware, but Delaware, they kind
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: of suck. And by the way, if you had the
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: over in the Delaware game last night, You got absolutely
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: fucked in that game. That game was 28-21 at halftime.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: And the game, there were only seven more points scored
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: in the whole game. And I think you only needed
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: two scores for that thing to go over the total
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: in the second half. And it fell short because the
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: second half had seven points after the first half had
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: 49 points. Absolutely ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. The game, I think,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: fell short of its total by like one and a
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: half points or something. Unbelievable. Like, yeah, you got screwed
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: if you had the over in last night's Delaware game,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Even though Middle Tennessee did outplay FIU in
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: this game, pulling off an upset like that, a ten
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: and a half point upset, a lot of times you
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: will be hung over. after a game like that, so
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: that's what I see being more the case here, although
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee does have two extra days off, I think,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: because they played on Tuesday, and I think Kennesaw played
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: on Thursday last week, but I think the way to
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: play this is to take Kennesaw plus the points. Middle
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's a public side, 82% of the tickets on them.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: As I said, it makes sense that they would be,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: because it looks way too easy to play the 4-3
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: team against the one-win team at a 2.5 spread, right? Like,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: it looks way too easy to play Middle Tennessee against
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: If you want Kennesaw, I would wait because the public
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: is going to get involved in football because everybody wants
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: football action. So wait, try to get a three. Maybe
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: you can get a three now, but if you're going
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: to play Kennesaw, which I think is the strongest way
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: to play either of these two football games today, find
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: the three, man. That's what I would do. I mean,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it still at two and a half,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: but three is a really key number, as we all know.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: So if you want to try to find the three
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: on Kennesaw, I think you might be able to find it.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: That's what I would do. Only 66% of the cash
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: on Middle Tennessee. So it looks like the real money
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: is on Kennesaw. That's maybe the issue with trying to
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: find the three still is, is there enough money on
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: the Kennesaw side, professional money to negate what the public
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: is doing in this game? That's the question. You know
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: what I mean? Maybe not because the public will probably
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: want to try to get down on this game and
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: think this might be the easiest play to make here
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: on the board here. So we'll see. Yeah, MTSU is
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: not good, correct. The Ghost of Charlie Clark. Yeah, well,
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: Liberty is a Jerry Falwell University. One of my cousins
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: went there. He's a youth minister now, by the way. Yeah,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: but I'm not a fan of Liberty as a school.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: You know, I like my cousin. I don't like Liberty.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: I like Liberty the concept. I don't like Liberty the
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: university concept. And all that stuff that was going on
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: about whatever the hell that was, that weird program that
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: was kind of associated with Liberty's university with helping young
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: women that get pregnant or whatever and basically stealing their
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: babies and putting them into whatever, like foster care or
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: some shit. I don't know what the hell was going
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: on with that. Something very strange going on. It's better
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: than abortion, I guess, but still. Something very, very strange
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: going on at Liberty. I don't like it. Um, that
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: was something that, uh, Cassandra, uh, Fairbanks, Cassandra McDonald, whatever
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: her name is now, she was on top of all
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: that shit. Uh, she would know more about that than
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: I do, but yeah. All right. Um, the other game
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: that we have, the last game I'm talking about on
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: the show is the ESPN two game between Jacksonville state
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: and New Mexico state. Jacksonville state's definitely the better team here.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. They're in the running to
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: win this conference here. They're the only other undefeated team
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: in conference right now, besides Liberty, uh, But as far
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: as Jacksonville State is concerned, I don't like the spot
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: for them because they're coming out of a bye. And
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: they went into the bye on a four-game win streak.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: And you know I talk about that. When teams go
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: into the bye on a win streak like that, I
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: think the bye is a momentum disruptor. So I think
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: that's bad. I think Jacksonville State might come out of
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: that bye losing that steam that they had. And they
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: only won their last two games barely against Kennesaw and FIU.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: They only won by four combined points in those two games.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: So Jacksonville State has been... teetering on the edge there
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: like they could have definitely taken some losses in here
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: i think they're one of the better teams in this
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: conference for sure but they're not like an excellent team
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: and their resume is really not impressive um their biggest
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: game was against north dakota state to open the season
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: they got manhandled in that game and they haven't played
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: anybody better than that for the rest of the season
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: the best team they play besides that is probably ohio
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: and uh they played well in that game they lost
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: on the road in four overtimes in that one um
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, Jacksonville State, they haven't been that
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: impressive in their wins in conference so far. Having to
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: go out to New Mexico is a little bit weird.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: And as I point out on all these shows, the
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: home team usually has a little bit of an extra
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: bump in these midweek games because the home team gets
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: a showcase game, a spotlight game on a big TV network.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: So usually the crowd shows up with more intensity. The
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: home team usually has a little bit more intensity. So
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: I think the home advantage is a little bit stronger
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: in these games, but I know I just said I
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: want to fade Middle Tennessee, though, because I don't know
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: about their crowd. But this game, it is kind of
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: a weird spot for Jacksonville State, who is in Alabama,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: not Florida. Jacksonville State's in, I believe it's Jacksonville, Alabama
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: is where they're located. Going out to New Mexico is
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: still kind of a weird spot for them to have
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: to go out there. A lot of New Mexico is
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: at high elevation, too, so... Kind of a weird situation
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: for them to go out there after kind of these
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: conference realignments or whatever. New Mexico State, I think, does
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: have the better defense. I think Jacksonville State certainly has
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: the better offense, but New Mexico State is a bit
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: better on the defensive end, and you're going to get
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: them as a home team here in what I think
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: is the better spot as an underdog with the better defense.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: So I'm leaning New Mexico State plus the points in
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: this one. I like both underdogs in the games here.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: New Mexico State didn't look that impressive last week, beating
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: Sam Houston by six. Sam Houston still has no wins
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: in conference or whatever, but I think New Mexico State
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: kind of overlooked them. to some extent, you know. But also,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: New Mexico State still covered the spread in this one,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: and they still outplayed Sam Houston. They still outgained them
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: by over 100 yards. So this was a legitimate win
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: for New Mexico State. There wasn't anything misleading about the
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: fact that they won. And in fact, statistically, they probably
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: should have won the game more easily, and they were
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: indeed winning that game by two touchdowns late. And Sam
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: Houston put up a garbage-time touchdown when it was too late.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: So New Mexico State played better in that game than
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: it looks today. New Mexico State, I think, has more
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: momentum right now coming into this game because they won
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: last week. They're on normal rest, whereas I don't like
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State coming off a bye that they went into
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: on a hot streak. So, yeah, I like New Mexico
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: State here. The money seems to not really agree. Jacksonville State,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: 64% of tickets on them. I do think Jacksonville State
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: will be another public side here, though. 88% of the
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: cash on them as well. They're up to about 3.5,
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: so you can get a 3.5 with New Mexico State here,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: and the total is not high. It's 49.5. The money
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: seems to be kind of indicating towards the under in
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: both of these games, by the way. Neither total is
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: that high. The total in the other game is 50.5,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: so taking the points makes some sense in that regard
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: as well, because the totals are not that high, so
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: taking the points when you get a total that's not
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: that high, obviously it makes a little bit more sense,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: because the points are a little bit more at a premium,
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: so I would take the points in both of these
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: games if I was going to do anything with it.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for all the games today. We got
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: a bunch of plays on the board today, and a
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: bunch of them are favorites, which is unlike me. We're
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: doing a split bet on the Colorado Avalanche, partially on
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: the Colorado Avalanche. minus one and a half puck line,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: partially on the money line. NBA, we got three plays.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: We got the Bulls plus the points. Probably the one
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: I'm most concerned about because they're real bad. The other plays,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: I think we get good teams in good spots. We're
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: laying the points with Minnesota without Anthony Edwards. Injured player
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: theory spot, though. Short price on them. Good spot, I think.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: And then we're also laying the points with the Denver Nuggets,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: where we get a good team, I think, in a
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: pretty clear focus spot for them. So, let's get it done.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: Let's get some wins today, man. Winning day. I mean,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: a 2-2 is, you know, that would be the... If
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: we go 2-2, I'll be.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: Not happy, but I'll be okay with it. Anything worse
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: than that, I'm going to be flipping out. But yeah,
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: let's get a win. Let's get a winning day today.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: We should have won yesterday, man. Just some real bullshit.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: The Blues, I mean... That pisses me off more than
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia making that comeback and teasing me or whatever. The
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: Blues statistically won that game. In every statistical department, they
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: won that game. I have no idea how they put
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: up no goals in that one. Absolutely ridiculous. I think
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: we got really unlucky with that Blues play. All right,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: that's going to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter, Instagram,
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: and TikTok. If I start getting that thing going again,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll start letting me actually get reach again. Obviously, like, subscribe, comment,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: do all the things for the channel here. Boost this thing.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: Tell people about it if you like what I'm doing here. Yeah,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: let's get it going. You can listen on audio as well. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: let's boost all that. Covered in Uke is my ukulele
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: cover channel on YouTube, so you can go check that
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: out too. Patreon.com slash LearnToToad if you want to support
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: me over there. Some bonus Uke stuff there. Loser cast
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: every Tuesday night. We had an episode last night that was... Yeah,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: I thought it was pretty funny. Maybe that's just me,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: but you can go check that out. We had a
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: lot of loser options this week, so you can go
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: check that out. Andy, dude, I'll always let you hang out.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: I know I'm a very ornery person, but yes, thank
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: you for hanging out. Andy, Zach, Dirty Sock, I appreciate
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: it all. All the regulars here. Let's go. Let's get
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: some wins. Let's get this done. I'll be back tomorrow,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: and If you subscribe here, you'll get notified when I'm
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: going to do my college basketball preview show, which will
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: be at some point towards the end of the week here,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: I suppose. It doesn't start until Tuesday, so maybe I'll
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: wait until Sunday or Monday to try to do that.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll see. The weekend becomes this, you
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: know what it is. It's just massive effort to try
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: to handicap all the football that's going on over the weekend.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: My college football show, very, very long show that takes
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: a lot to do, so We'll figure it out, but
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: that's going to do it for now. Peace.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone Let
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: somebody answer, let somebody know You do not have.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 7: To lose this round alone Hold on, hold on, not
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 7: tonight Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: On Let me pull you out That bad luck bites
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: hard But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: on Stay with me now.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 7: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.