Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The 2nd Trump Trade Will Make Millionaires + Stock Market News 17 January 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The 2nd Trump Trade Will Make Millionaires + Stock Market News 17 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And welcome to this pre-market live stream on the last day before the new president gets anointed on this coming Monday, and in my humble opinion, it is the opportunity of all opportunities to be grabbed with both hands.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You know, both hands on the horn sort of type thing.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: So I want to walk you through a couple of crucial pieces of information that mainstream media doesn't really cover because it's a little too complex.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: And then I also want to show you a trade that I'm looking at that would make us three thousand percent plus.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: So you want, you want to make three thousand percent plus.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: If you want to make three thousand percent plus, put a one in the chat or a or a thumbs up or some sort of happy emoji, and and let me see, let me see that you'll actually listen here and then you can hear me and it all makes sense and that sort of thing.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: So I shall be sharing my screen with you and I'll show you a couple of key bits of info here.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Scott says one, one one.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, I love you, scott.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, I just teased it there on the screen, but I actually want to start here with a couple of really important things.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So first of all, as we are live.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: The market looks pretty green.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: The only thing that's going down is fat, apparently.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Okay, lots of ones here Love to see it, love to see it.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Love the enthusiasm, guys, brilliant.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So that is good news.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Now, how do we make money?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Well, the first thing is always to understand where is the market right now.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: And the market moves in what?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: In patterns?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Right, like millions of studies have shown again and again that the market CNN has ever created, and it is called the fear and greed index.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: And where are we right now on the fear and greed index?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: We can still afford the D.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Well, we're down here, and down there is pretty low if you go back over the last two years or so.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: So when was the last time we were this low?
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Do you remember October, november, 2023?
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Just to give you a refresher, the Americans thought, oh my God, we're heading into a recession.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: No, that was sort of the general sentiment, and the market dipped.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: It dipped quite significantly actually, and you can see that on the little chart here.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: The red line is what the red line is the S&P 500, right, so it dipped quite significantly.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: And what happened then?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Well, rather predictably, the market rallied.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: What about in April of this year Similar story and then the market rebounded.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: What about in August this year?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: That was the Japanese.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: We rebounded and right now we're back at that level.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So the general idea of buy when others are fearful, which is sort of the Buffett mantra, definitely works most of the time and therefore we're in that place.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: That's quite happy, isn't it?
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: So if you want to buy long-term stocks, I just bought some stocks today.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: I bought essentially bought a essentially QQQ NASDAQ, and I'm going to buy some more individual stocks a little bit later when the market's open.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So that's good news, right?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: If that makes sense, again, put a one in the chat here so I can see it makes sense.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: If it makes no sense to you whatsoever, put a three martin.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I love what you just wrote.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Your five, seven year old nephew thinks you can print money.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Well, you sort of can tell him he needs to become the chair of the fed and then he can.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: What's the second thing?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Okay, a lot of ones there, brilliant.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm glad this is making some sense.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: The second thing to look at is when do people hedge their portfolio?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: What is hedging?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Hedging is basically buying insurance.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Now, if you drive a car, you buy insurance the moment you buy the car.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: If you live, you basically buy health insurance.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: But with investments people only really buy insurance when the market's already dropping, so when everybody is already fearful.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So they don't do it in advance.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: And it's a weird human psychology that with money they think they don't need insurance.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: But that's a whole nother story.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I have a whole video on how you can basically insure your portfolio for free and there's a little indicator and it's called PCE and it basically tells you how many insurance policies have traders taken out or investors taken out.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: And right now we have popped up pretty nicely, pretty big move up here, and that generally also correlates with a dip and the dip was probably the dip we've already seen there's another indicator to sort of say OK, we know all the hedges, all the guys who insure their portfolio, are always late to the party.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So now that they've done that quite a lot, the likelihood of going up seems greater than it going down, and that's kind of the way we look at the market here.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty useful.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Real men wear pink, absolutely, absolutely.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I'm wearing a nice pink linen shirt today.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm in a place where I'm about 100 yards from the beach, so you kind of have to wear something like this.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I actually took a passport, so this is another one here.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: I often talk to you about algo funds, right, and what do I say algo funds do?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: It's sort of a weird thing that most people don't understand.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So if you don't, again, you're a normal human being.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: But algo funds typically trade sort of what the chart says.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: They kind of follow the emotion, and a lot of that is something called volatility you might call it fear and they sell when volatility goes up and they have sold a lot.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So you can see on this little chart here they've sold about 100 billion in US stocks over the last month, which is quite a lot, isn't it?
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: And that's usually about as much as they sell.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: And then, typically, what do they do?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: They start buying again, and it might seem a bit retarded that they sell and buy where the flows of the market, but that's the way they're programmed, right, so blame the human who came up with it, but that's sort of the structure over there, so that's positive.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So, again, it means it's more likely that we're going to go up than down.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So I think we've dipped quite significantly.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: And then here is the big one.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: This is sort of the Rolls Royce of the stock market, the thing that actually drives it.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I said Rolls Royce.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: It's the engine of the stock market and it's not earnings, it's not profits, it's not pension funds or Black Rock or anything like that.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It's just good old-fashioned buybacks.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: And buybacks are what Buybacks are simply companies' buybacks.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: It basically is companies buying their own stock, and why do they do that?
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: It's a way of returning money to shareholders, and if they're paid to pay you a dividend, then people like me would grumble.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I guess I'd be like there's tax on that, there's a holding tax on this, dividend tax on that.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I don't want to pay that.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Can you just do a buyback?
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: And that way I don't get a tax bill.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: That's basically why they do it.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So that's seasonal, and this blue chart here shows you how seasonal that is.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Why is it seasonal?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Us regulation does not allow you to buy your own stock just in the two weeks or so before your earnings I can't remember the exact date, but something like that.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So if you're about to report your company's earnings, you can't buy just before that.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So you go into this blackout window where we stop buying stocks or, like those guys, stop buying, and what that means is that you get this drop off here where we are right now.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So right now we're here and what happens?
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Well, give it a couple more days, another week or so, and you're going to start to see the buybacks coming back with a vengeance to that level up here, and that will be very supportive for the market.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So we've kind of almost survived.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Now we're still in the middle of the blackout, but give it another week or so and we're starting to start to come out of it, and then we will have survived.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: The riskiest part of this quarter.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Any secure men wear pink.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, why not?
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Pink's a great color.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Every quarter Indeed, yes.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So, okay, you guys are paying attention.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, Does that make some sense to you so far?
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So put another one in the chat.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: If this makes some sense to you, this is useful, this is useful to you.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Put it in there, and then I'm going to give you one more and I know I'm hitting you over the head with quite a few chats and then I'll take your questions.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: We look at your favorite stocks.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: We look at SoFi and everything that's going on there right now and what the market is doing right now, and then maybe also some real opportunities.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: And I want to show you that 3,000% trade and ask you a little bit about that.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Okay, long-short ratio, what's the story there?
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Well, when people go long they're buying, when they're short they're selling.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So we want to see okay, brilliant, loving to see all the ones there.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Again, it's a thing that goes up and down, and right now it's gone down a lot, which means, again, funds have sold a lot of stocks and we're back to sort of levels we were at in the summer and August.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Look at the start for August.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: We rallied a heck of a lot since August.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Shall I show it to you?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Let me show it to you.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Here we go, let me open up, say QQQ, this is here in trade vision and you will see, you will start singing.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I can see clearly now the rain is gone and all that kind of stuff.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: This was August.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: So we dipped.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: And then look after that.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: From August we went from 4.30 to now 5.21.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So pretty nice rally up.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: So that's important to understand also.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: So we have a lot of reasons why we've kind of feeling quite bullish.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So what do you to understand also?
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: So we have a lot of reasons why we've kind of feeling quite bullish.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So what do you do with that information?
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, I'll just go out and you buy.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: You know, whatever you invest, you buy the index, whatever you want to do.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Obviously, you've got to do your own risk management and so on.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: But the ultimate question is what are you going to buy?
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: And would it be nice if you knew what to buy before it went up?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Would be nice, wouldn't it?
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be rather nice if you knew what to buy before it went up?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: If you want to buy stuff before it goes up, put a smiley in the live chat here and I'll see that you are interested in what tell you.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, cool, I'm starting to see the ones coming in here.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, okay.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: So there's two things I would do.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: First thing I would do is we're just putting out this breakout indicator in Trade Vision and you probably haven't got it yet.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: It's a very small group so far, but more and more of you are going to get access to that over the next couple of days as we launch it officially, probably early next week.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, loving the smileys.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: So how are we resizing the charts?
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Use a mouse.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: You can drag, you can scroll, you can drag.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: You know all sorts of things.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: It's actually having a scanner that helps to find them.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Now, a scanner, like anything, is going to give you some great things and some not so great things.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: So what's the most important thing when you are buying something?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It's risk management.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: That's actually where we make money.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So, as investors and traders, we make money when we exit, not when we buy.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: You buy something, you sell something.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Where do you make money when you sell?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: That's always the point, and even if you're losing money because you're risk managing, that is actually going to make you money.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So it's not important well, not as important when you're buying or what you're buying, but it's actually more important when you exit.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Having said that, it's much nicer to buy things before they go up, right.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely a good thing.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: George, you got the breakouts already, okay, brilliant.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I'd love to see that More and more you're getting that rolled out.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So first thing is, get yourself a week's trial to Trade Vision if you haven't already FelixFrenzelorg slash, trade Vision Link is down below as well, or TradeVision, it doesn't really matter and that would be the first thing to do.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: And then you're going to want to ask me okay, this thing here, whatever it is, matrix services say this looks good.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: And you're thinking, well, look, that was a very nice value there and maybe I should buy that.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: And the next question is going to be well, but should I buy it?
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: What are the actual rules underneath this?
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: How does it actually work?
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: How does the indicator work?
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: When should I exit?
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: At what point do I do something about this?
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: And that's the difference between hoping and praying and wishing and actually being in control of your portfolio, which is where most of you said you wanted to be.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: So how do you do that?
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Well, very simple.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I'll give you the second piece of the puzzle, which is watch the masterclass.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: If you go to felixfrenzelogcom slash, get free and watch the actual steps.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: That will give you the rules to finding the breakouts and then also how to manage those breakouts.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Now you're what?
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Much better off than you were before, right?
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: And you are starting to get ready to have the best 2025 yet, which is surely what life's all about, right?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Every day should be our most wonderful yet, and every year will hopefully be the most wonderful yet.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: So I've got mine today, too, brent.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, brilliant.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: More of you guys are getting that rolled out, which is brilliant.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Last of the Mohicans says Felix, you've made me over a million dollars in the last four months.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Well, that's very, very nice of you to share that with me.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: That makes my day Brilliant.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: That's really why I do this and I get that.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: A million dollars is a pretty extraordinary sum.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: So congratulations to you, my friend, for learning and knuckling down and making good decisions.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: But I get so many of these messages, which is why I wake up with a smile every day.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: It's the funnest thing you could ever do when you are, you know, sort of in retirement, like I am sort of.