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Crypto Rundown: The #1 Trend We are Watching Right Now for Bitcoin · CRYPTO 101

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[SPEAKER_02]: all right everyone welcome back to the crypto run down presented by Gemini your future to our your bridge to the future of money and we're excited to have everyone back here today there's a lot to talk about in the crypto market and of course man things are staying volatile they are moving back and forth uh we're having
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[SPEAKER_02]: Just a lot of volatility in both directions.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like in recent weeks, we've seen Bitcoin moving down and crypto moving down.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That we saw a big spike back up.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now we're seeing it back to the downside.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And so it's raised a lot of questions about what's going on, where is crypto heading from here?
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[SPEAKER_02]: And there's a lot of catalysts, of course, that we want to talk about and break down.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So walk back everyone.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It's good to have you.
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[SPEAKER_02]: No matter where you are coming from, you're certainly in the right place.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, Tiva, how are we doing on your run?
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[SPEAKER_03]: doing good man back in the back in the saddle.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I know we had an interesting week last week.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We saw us live with the whole entire team on that one episode.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And then this is an in-promptu one.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Good morning.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We got shops in there, good morning, chopsy.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I know it's going to be probably a light live today because we didn't, we didn't kind of say a schedule because again, we were traveling coming home.
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[SPEAKER_03]: a lot of things up in the air, but we'll try to get back to our more regularly scheduled programming where we let you know when we're going live and all that stuff.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We are going to have a live on Friday, so I'll post about that about the time with Brian and Joe.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But yeah, just kind of a volatile time in the markets, like you said, it's one of those things where the prey, and this is my opinion, we'll obviously go and break it down, just the volatility
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[SPEAKER_03]: is kind of outperforming what I see in the news flow.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Obviously there's Trump tweets, the tariffs and all that kind of rock the market here and there we already covered that last week or 10 days ago.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But
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[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, there seems to be that leverage flush still might be cleaning up.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, you're the technician.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We're going to pull the charts and see.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But I've been seeing these, you know, moves in the big coin and all coins and Ethereum even, you know, moving up and down and up and down.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I'm not quite seeing the news flow that makes me understand the move.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, I don't know.
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[SPEAKER_03]: An interesting time.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But hey, that's why we're here.
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[SPEAKER_03]: We're here together to learn and educate and talk about the markets.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think that's been the biggest disconnect for me.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We had someone internally asked us yesterday.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Like guys, why is it behaving like this?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Why is it performing like this?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Why haven't we kind of gone to new all-time highs and we've seen so much resistance?
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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think it's a hard answer, man.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's a hard answer.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You're right in the sense that the volatility in the price action is not really matching the news flow.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And you look at the,
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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, all these ETF filings, which we're going to talk about today.
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[SPEAKER_02]: There's over 155 crypto, ETP filings for 35 different cryptocurrencies and digital assets, which is wild.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But you look at the ETF and ETP filings.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's good.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It keeps growing.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You look at the ETF flows.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You look at these treasuries buying.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You look at like retail sentiment.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You look at, you know, what's happening with regulation and the government stuff and the
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[SPEAKER_02]: All of it's positive.
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[SPEAKER_02]: All of it's good and positive, and it doesn't early match what's happening, or the price action doesn't really match what we're seeing here.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So there's a little bit of frustration, and I think rightfully so.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So we're going to dive a little bit deeper into this.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I've seen a lot of people have different ideas, right?
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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, oh, this is because of the liquidation event, right?
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[SPEAKER_02]: That probably hurt
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[SPEAKER_02]: a lot of people, right?
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[SPEAKER_02]: The largest one in history by far.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And when we look at that and how it was bigger than FTX, Luna and COVID combined several times over, you know, I think that that's probably what we're seeing a little bit here of is lingering effects and all of those lungs getting liquidated.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And then I think, you know, other people tried to attribute this to what's happening with like
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[SPEAKER_02]: I'll tell you what, I tend to believe that it's not as much focused on that.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think that if it were to have been trade war related, we would have seen more, we would have seen more volatility on the trade side than on the crypto side because that's really what it affects.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think we would have seen a lot more volatility in NASDAQ and so far we haven't seen that.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't really think that it is trade war related and I think that we can rule out a scenario like that.
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[SPEAKER_03]: That's exactly how we'll transition.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Let's bring up the charts.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And I'll show you, I'm going to lead us off with a ticker.
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[SPEAKER_03]: That's not making much sense.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And then again, I don't think this perfectly correlates to crypto in any way, Brendan.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But bring up beyond meat.
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[SPEAKER_03]: The meme stocks are back.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Some of these speculative short squeezes kind of reminiscent of the game stops saga.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Like literally just the last three days, Brendan.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And again, I don't think this perfectly correlates to crypto, but again, when you're talking about price action that that isn't making sense and the news flow and its volatility and flushing stuff out, there's there's some things going on in the capital markets as a whole that aren't making a lot of sense and I think that, you know, it doesn't always match, but maybe it rhymes.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So what he's seeing there and beyond meets in the charts.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's up 1,300% since last Thursday, uh, which isn't a meme coin.
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[SPEAKER_03]: This is this is publicly traded on the stock exchange.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, it's performance has been meme worthy since COVID.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the things fallen, it fell.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, 99% of the downside from 250 bucks to 40 cents or whatever it was at.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And I did see this was trading at a crazy price this morning.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think it was, what was it was in earnings call or some sort of news, I was trying to figure out the reason, but I didn't have enough time.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Part of it.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I think Walmart announced that they're bringing some of the products into more stores across the country, but it doesn't warrant that type of move.
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[SPEAKER_03]: It just obviously there's tons and tons of short interest on that stock slash company.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And then a little bit of news.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I know you know I have some friends that are plant-based food people but not really I'll say this and before we move on to the crypto a little fun tidbit year This is one of the stocks that I I'd up and I should have shorted it was on my short list Years ago when it went public a I had beyond meets when public and I was like Yeah, nobody I don't know a ton of people that eat this stuff I should short this thing and then it was bumble bumble was one that went public during the
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I pull up Bumble.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So this is one of my best shorts ever.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So Bumble goes public and I'm living in New York City and I never got any matches.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So on IPO, and I'm like, I'm short in this thing.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Like this thing sucks.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I never get any matches.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And it worked out and it worked out and then obviously I don't get a match is because, you know, I'm ugly, but the, uh, I was speaking to, well, speaking to that, how funny was that comment the other day?
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[SPEAKER_03]: It was like Brendan looks exactly how I thought and, and Tvo looks nothing like I would have imagined.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's basically what there's two ways to interpret that they could have said Brendan looks like the most basic finance Bro that we've ever seen right?
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[SPEAKER_02]: I'm probably just copyposted off the internet and you actually have some character to you That's the way that I could have interpreted it
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, definitely an interesting character.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, Bumble was one of my favorite shorts because I'm not getting living in New York City I'm not getting any matches and I'm just like this thing sucks.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Why is this going?
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[SPEAKER_03]: Why is this going public?
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[SPEAKER_03]: And then obviously that that wasn't a thesis for why the company would go down, but yeah, I never understood how that would make a ton of money So that one and beyond I missed beyond me, but I got Bumble so sorry a little little fun tangent there to start the show But let take take us back on track running
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, I mean, you got to look at some of the fun stuff.
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[SPEAKER_02]: There's always something fun happening across the board here.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, Bitcoin was seeing another like down here over the last week or so.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So we had kind of the initial drop, then we came back up to the moving averages, rejected fell lower.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And after this, you know, we rose back up again and yesterday was a really sharp rise.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So we bought them last Friday and then on Saturday, Sunday and Monday and Tuesday, we continued seeing pressure to the upside.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now yesterday was wild.
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[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, I'm going to break this down on an hourly chart because what we saw yesterday,
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[SPEAKER_02]: was such a strange move, where we kind of started the day by moving to the downside, and then after we went down to around 107,000, we went up to 114,000, then we came back down to 106,000.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So it was just this roller coaster of a day where we were essentially starting out at 111, then 117, then 114, then back down to 106, and price action was just all over the place.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And it was a very strange but large rejection candle.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Again, off of those moving averages, off of a lower high in here.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And it's not really, I would say the best look.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now this big support, and I think the main idea I'm moving forward here is can we see this rough area around the prior all-time highs, which is where we've tested before, right?
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[SPEAKER_02]: We've hit this and rejected, hit this and rejected, hit this and rejected a couple of times until we broke out.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Can we use this general previous top as a new bottoming area over in here?
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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that's the main concept to kind of watch out for here, and so far, you know, we are doing it, but we're kind of teetering on the line of danger.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And so what Bitcoin needs to do here is it needs to hold this anchor view up off of the tariff lows.
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[SPEAKER_02]: uh... which is that orange line it needs to hold this two-in-your-day moving average it needs to hold this prior resistance area and we're kind of playing with the angel a little bit here on bitcoin and so i'm nervous that if we start to roll through this anymore you know there's a chance bitcoin goes under a hundred k and we see a little bit of downside from an area like this so
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[SPEAKER_02]: This is a pretty critical level.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think people need to be paying attention to this one.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We are for whatever reason seeing a bit more selling pressure and Bitcoin than most other assets.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You look at what's been happening over the last couple of months.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Pretty much since July, Bitcoin had its move up, but then it's been chopping sideways and,
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[SPEAKER_02]: as I've recently seen some downwards pressure.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So I've been kind of analyzing this and comparison to some of the other markets.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You kind of look at, you know, NASDAQ since July and it's been trending up.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You look at gold minus the past two days since July and this thing's been trending up.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And then you look at Bitcoin and its performance has, again, just not kind of been keeping as well up.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It was interesting because what we had was Bitcoin overperforming, most of crypto, actually outperforming all other asset classes.
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[SPEAKER_02]: from April to July, and then from July to October, we've actually seen them start to underperform.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now, obviously it varies from crypto to crypto, but generally speaking, we had this big overperforming run where crypto again was blowing away with tradifying equities and indices and metals and everything else was doing.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And then kind of the second half, we've started to see it do the opposite and underperform.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So for the time being, I want to see a shift,
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[SPEAKER_02]: In that, and I know we have some theories about what can kind of cause that a little bit later on in the episode.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But that's the main thing that I want to see over here is you can crypto start to lead the markets again and start to outperform, instead of underperform.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And so we need to hold this really big crucial level of support here.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And that's one of the big things that I'm watching out for.
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[SPEAKER_02]: We've also started to see a little bit of an uptick here in recent weeks with the rise in the strength of the dollar.
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[SPEAKER_02]: which typically has a negative impact on crypto.
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[SPEAKER_02]: You can look at Bitcoin dominance, in really since mid September, this thing's been slowly trending back to the upside minus, the big move here, but for the most part it's kind of slowly been trending back up here, and so we've seen Bitcoin dominance kind of rising.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And the really key area of the crypto market that has been getting hit has been,
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[SPEAKER_02]: altcoins outside of the large caps, you know, you look at the other charts and things like this and altcoins outside of those top tenor so altcoins.
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[SPEAKER_02]: That's really the area that we see getting peppered here.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So obviously, you know, there's always going to be these pockets of green.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I saw clear pools up almost 14% on the day and there's a few other ones as well, but
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[SPEAKER_02]: you know, that's what I'm seeing on the chart.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So pretty important time to be watching what's going on.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Um, because we really don't want to see our role over kind of too far but I need this.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, man.
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[SPEAKER_03]: It's a, it's a good point.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I think technically, like you just said, we're kind of approaching the, uh, you know, the heavy support zones and people are always watching those, especially, you know, larger whales kind of have, you know,
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[SPEAKER_03]: Stop losses and all that so kind of around that point and you can you know better than me But I learned from taking your course courses like you know you're always setting your stop loss at certain points But you can also get stop loss hunted which you know a lot of these exchanges and you know Whales are gonna start doing around these levels.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So
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[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it's kind of on those levels where you can get the big shoot to one where the other.
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[SPEAKER_03]: You know, it got obviously bounce higher, but it could it could shoot below these levels pretty quickly to go, you know, do some stop loss hunting.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So it's definitely a time where, you know, as much as we were saying the news flow isn't really giving us any too many, too many leads anywhere, which one way or the other.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But you got to stay vigilant, especially, you know, if you're, if you're a trader,
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[SPEAKER_03]: You got to be, you know, you got to be nimble during these times.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But before we transition out of the charts, Brandon, could you bring up gold?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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[SPEAKER_02]: This has been a wild one recently here.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, I mean, here's that gold chart, man.
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[SPEAKER_02]: What a run.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, what a run.
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[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, you can't, you can't hate on the gold bugs.
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[SPEAKER_03]: Can, congrats to the gold bugs, but interestingly enough, I think, you know, in this modern day of finance, you know, with different ETFs.
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[SPEAKER_03]: And again, we talked about the tokenization of gold on the blockchain.
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[SPEAKER_03]: It feels like,
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[SPEAKER_03]: there might be some leverage in there as well, which is the traditional old school old school gold bugs won't be used to.
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[SPEAKER_03]: But what we saw in the last two days, what can you give us a two-day count there?
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[SPEAKER_03]: I think I saw it was the largest two-day decline for gold since 2013.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Was.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And yesterday's candle, I think was the largest one of the most volatile one that we've seen in COVID.
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[SPEAKER_03]: So what's the two-day total down like eight, nine percent?
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, down about eight and a half percent, which is why old, um, yes, gold is not used to those kind of moves gold typically is not that volatile.
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[SPEAKER_03]: yeah and then here i'm going to bring up this chart that i found now so if you stop sharing your screen there was something i saw online and it was about basically a when when uh big point flies once gold slide so was comparing kind of 2020 to uh to what we could or may see now again this is not anything that is for certain just and that's what this shows all about is kind of bringing you all the things around the news and the internet that we're seeing and you know the traditional crypto markets
15:48
[SPEAKER_03]: and just kind of discussing it so it's all kind of gold topped out here in 2020 at the end of the summer and then Bitcoin obviously went on quite the run down there in 2020 so it kind of an interesting correlation there again it didn't happen in 2022 so that's why that's not on there but
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[SPEAKER_03]: uh... twenty twenty five golds went on this crazy crazy run um... is it short-term topping out i think long-term we both agree that you know any hard assets are going higher over time but is there a short-term top here in gold wall you know bitcoin is kind of lagged gold in the last couple months here uh... is it time for for bitcoin to make its fourth quarter run again just another tool in the toolbox of something interesting to to think about um... but any thoughts around it brand and
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[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, you know, it's interesting because, you know, for a while, people have been, I've seen both sides of the argument, people are saying, well, Bitcoin should be following gold and Bitcoin should be following the M2 money supply and both Bitcoin and gold follow the M2 money supply and now there's this idea that gold will bleed and it's market capital bleed and to Bitcoin some, which
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think can make a little bit sense.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think both can also be true.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Gold goal on this really big run and now there's this question finally where if, and I'm gonna throw up the chart here one more time here to you, Val.
17:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Where I can show what's happening on gold.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And, you know, for the longest time, I'm gonna bring this out to a weekly chart.
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[SPEAKER_02]: But for the longest time, I mean, dude, gold for years.
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[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you go back to like 2011.
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[SPEAKER_02]: right where this thing kind of peaked at its all-time highs in 2011 and essentially up until 2024 about a year ago gold really wasn't breaking out to new all-time highs for a 13-year window and now what you finally have is people who are accumulating from 2010-2011 all the way up to
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[SPEAKER_02]: people who have been accumulating here, they're finally going on or run here and they're finally kind of in the profits beyond those prior all-time highs and now they're asking themselves the question, hey after 1314 15 years
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[SPEAKER_02]: I should maybe I should take some off and if so, you know, they've been so focused on not selling and holding because they've been kind of underwater underneath those prior highs.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now they're at the opposite end where they're probably up double on their money.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They're up twice as high as that prior all-time high of around 2K.
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[SPEAKER_02]: Now it's up above 4K, and people are saying, OK, well, should I take some profits?
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[SPEAKER_02]: And if so, what do I sell into?
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[SPEAKER_02]: And the thing that we know about metals, metal lovers, right, gold, silver, doesn't matter, is that they tend to like crypto.
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[SPEAKER_02]: The majority of them like and or already own crypto.
18:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So they'll say, OK, well, I'm up, you know, two, three, four x on on gold and silver and stuff.
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[SPEAKER_02]: What should I sell into?
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think the answer there is probably cryptos.
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[SPEAKER_02]: A lot of them like it.
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[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to look at gold as being relatively high.
18:54
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to look at Bitcoin and crypto as being relatively low in comparison to where they're high as or.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And I think that there is a little bit of a conversation that kind of can be had there.
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[SPEAKER_02]: The same thing could go with silver, where if you look at a chart like this one,
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[SPEAKER_02]: You know, this thing had been sitting under all-time highs for, you know, it's finally just hitting a new all-time high.
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[SPEAKER_02]: It hit these levels back in the 80s, it hit this level back in 2011, and it wasn't until the last week or so that we saw silver breaking out to new all-time highs.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And when you adjust for inflation, it's not even there yet.
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[SPEAKER_02]: So I think, again, people are looking at this after being underwater for over a decade.
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[SPEAKER_02]: And they're saying, wow, you know, if I bought the dip, I'm actually up quite a bit now.
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[SPEAKER_02]: When should I take profits or should I start to take profits?
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[SPEAKER_02]: I think that conversation's coming around from some of the people that I already know that are metals people and the second question is, um, you know, where should that money go into?
19:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Because the thing about most metals people is that they don't really want to hold the dollar, right?
19:55
[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of the whole point that you hold metals and crypto and these other assets is because you don't want to have a ton of dollar exposure.
20:01
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't really think it makes sense for those people to go out sell all of this gold or metals or whatever it may be and then go and hold a dollar that's kind of, you know, kind of counter to their whole stance in the first place.
20:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think it makes sense, man.
20:16
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that we if we do see gold fall kind of like the chart that you showed.
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[SPEAKER_02]: think that we could see a little bit of a rally here in crypto.
20:26
[SPEAKER_02]: And so who knows, maybe it's this situation where the strength of the dollar falls and gold falls and some of these other things all fall.
20:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And then it allows crypto to see some more upside.
20:35
[SPEAKER_02]: But I could certainly see that fitting into the narrative here.
20:40
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, again, there's a lot of narratives out there, which is, again, while I always say you tune to the show and we try to break it all down.
20:46
[SPEAKER_03]: I did see something just came across the screen that kind of reminded me of a good thought was with the Beyond Meat thing, not to sorry to circle back on that.
20:55
[SPEAKER_03]: But it's like, when that's going on and a lot of these, you know, speculative, meme stocks and all that stuff, it is part of people with high-risk profiles.
21:05
[SPEAKER_03]: And then obviously now there's this, you know,
21:07
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, crazy move and people are piling in and shorts are getting killed and when all that stuff happens There's kind of like a deleveraging event too because all these people that are piling in are shorting and this and that they're usually on margin And so you're pulling you're pulling out from other stuff that that has, you know, margin up and then obviously a lot of cryptos and Bitcoin and go like It's just there's a lot going on in the markets right now.
21:31
[SPEAKER_03]: So I think it is an interesting time where there's a lot of trends out there
21:35
[SPEAKER_03]: and you know just tune in with us we're gonna try to break them down even though a lot of them you know you might not know who's not wearing a bayonet suit until the tide goes out but it feels like there's there's there's a lot of stuff going on here but it's just quite interesting to stick to the heart of the program crypto 101 uh we still have a ton of bullish stuff going on which is what we're going to you know do the back half of the show here and run through some stuff with you
21:59
[SPEAKER_03]: Brendan, we got the still, a lot of crypto, ETP filings are tracking 155 different ones.
22:06
[SPEAKER_03]: What did you see here?
22:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, dude, this is fascinating.
22:10
[SPEAKER_02]: We saw 155 crypto, ETP filings.
22:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at this on screen, everyone.
22:16
[SPEAKER_02]: When you get a moment, and again, if you're not tuning in on YouTube, you need to go over to our YouTube channel, which is the crypto 101 podcast.
22:23
[SPEAKER_02]: But here it is.
22:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, 23 for Solana, 23 for Bitcoin, 20 for XRP.
22:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that's a 16 for Ethereum, 10 for all these different baskets, five for like coin, four for A-Bax, and then you have doge, polka dot say, H bar, sui, b and b, Cardano, near, chain links, some for Trump, injective, and the list goes on, but you have all of these different crypto ETPs, you have all these different crypto ETS, and you know, as we scroll down, I mean there's more and more and more and the list goes on.
22:56
[SPEAKER_02]: There are so many of these things that are waiting for approval.
23:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, what does this say?
23:02
[SPEAKER_02]: I think this says two things.
23:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one, retail wants this and institutional side knows that retail wants this, hence why they're creating these and why they're filing for these in the first place.
23:15
[SPEAKER_02]: They want to go through all the regulatory hurdles and time making them and doing all this stuff in the first place, setting it up.
23:21
[SPEAKER_02]: If there wasn't a demand, so there's demand, which is causing these, the institutional players to want to create these in the first place, and they see that there's demand or else they want to be offering these.
23:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So the other part of this is that the reason we haven't seen these in really any of this by ETF's first
23:44
[SPEAKER_02]: is that the government still closed, right?
23:46
[SPEAKER_02]: We've had three deadlines go past.
23:48
[SPEAKER_02]: We've had Solana, we've had XRP, and we have a, we've had lightcoin.
23:52
[SPEAKER_02]: All of these actually should have been approved.
23:54
[SPEAKER_02]: However, since the government shut down,
23:56
[SPEAKER_02]: You can't get the approval of the SEC, because no one's there in the SEC.
24:01
[SPEAKER_02]: So the idea is that once the government reopens back up, you should see a lot of these ETFs get approved.
24:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I think that that kind of opens the floodgates for the rest of these altcoins and probably some of these ETPs to also get spot ETFs.
24:17
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's another kind of thing to think about here.
24:19
[SPEAKER_02]: But I really do believe that like, hey, once the government opens back up,
24:22
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the floodgates kind of open.
24:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I think that we have the opportunity to see a lot of other ETFs happen.
24:30
[SPEAKER_02]: And I would say that that's when all coins really get their uptick.
24:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Once we start and we'll have to see obviously, you know, we don't have a crystal ball, but I would imagine that if these get approved, I think that that kind of acts as a catalyst for altcoins to see some more upside.
24:46
[SPEAKER_02]: So something that I'm watching out for here.
24:49
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I couldn't agree more and I think again with all the volatility inside of this range if you zoom out on some especially something like big coin like we're still in that three month range where it's, you know, we've talked about it in years past.
25:02
[SPEAKER_03]: It's the it's kind of that bore out phase of, you know, just ping ponging from 105 to 125 and just that range of trying to get people, you know, excited board over leverage, shake them out type of deal.
25:16
[SPEAKER_03]: It I would say that you know, with with all the with all the leverage in the system and there's so much volatility even inside this range you can be like, oh, is it over is it over again, we don't have that crystal ball, but I just don't think we have we haven't had that like blow off top yet in my opinion, where it's just that crazy euphoric there's still a lot of negative sentiment out there in the crypto markets there's still a ton of negative sentiment out there in the track by markets where we kind of, you know, go back to that it's the most hated rally from
25:47
[SPEAKER_03]: from those April lows.
25:48
[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, I don't see that, I don't see that like euphoric phase yet here.
25:54
[SPEAKER_03]: My guess would be that if there was gonna be one, it would be these ETP and ETF filings, that might get us there in the sense that kind of sticking to the narrative that, you know,
26:05
[SPEAKER_03]: Bitcoin and has kind of led us this bull market right with the Bitcoin dominance that we talked about so much at the beginning of this year into the summer.
26:14
[SPEAKER_03]: It's because these ETFs gave track by access to this.
26:17
[SPEAKER_03]: We've talked about how, you know, these big hedge funds and big money managers, they can't go on to Coinbase or Uniswap or Pancakeswap and go buy, you know, your favorite low-cap altcoin.
26:29
[SPEAKER_03]: They just can't.
26:29
[SPEAKER_03]: It's against their rules and, um,
26:32
[SPEAKER_03]: And so once these ETPs and ETS go live,
26:37
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, again, it's never personal financial place here, just a couple of friends talking crypto, but like, yeah, I want to, I want to be around for that.
26:44
[SPEAKER_03]: And I want to learn, you know, what happens to the flows of this?
26:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Because a lot of this stuff, you'll be able to go in research and see, like, okay, what big, um, you know, big investors and big funds, what are they buying?
26:57
[SPEAKER_03]: And so again, kind of like Bitcoin has led, you know, this bull market.
27:06
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, hey, I liked it.
27:07
[SPEAKER_03]: The casino, I'm a bet in man.
27:08
[SPEAKER_03]: My bet is there's going to be a lot of flows into these things.
27:10
[SPEAKER_03]: And that's kind of kind of lead kind of that quote, unquote, all point season that we've been waiting for, just the timings been a lot different, I think, because it's a new era of merging this triad fi crypto space together.
27:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it is, man.
27:26
[SPEAKER_02]: And you know, I think the crypto, in my opinion, that seeing the most kind of attraction and attention here is Solana, Hong Kong,
27:35
[SPEAKER_02]: spot ETF and again, they're not going to get one in the U.S. isn't it's just not the way that it works.
27:41
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think the U.S. is trailing right behind this.
27:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And then kind of similarly along this news, polymark it announced.
27:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you saw this, but polymark it announced.
27:51
[SPEAKER_02]: But they're going to have a full Solana integration where people can place bets on Polymarket with Solana directly from their Solana wallet.
28:00
[SPEAKER_02]: So this is a big deal because it was always built on Ethereum, right?
28:04
[SPEAKER_02]: This is an Ethereum application and that's where it was built.
28:07
[SPEAKER_02]: But now they have this integration with Solana where people can just plug in their wallet, trade, use Polymarket, and so that's a really cool thing.
28:15
[SPEAKER_02]: And we all know how big like we talked about it a lot.
28:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I know between me and you and the other guys, but we've talked about how big the betting market industry is getting.
28:24
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're talking what tens and tens of billions of dollars as to what it's being valued at.
28:29
[SPEAKER_02]: And we'll probably see this become, I would say like a multi-hundred billion dollar industry.
28:35
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, probably, I would say, dare I say this might be bold, but within the next couple of years if it's not already there.
28:41
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, and draft king's, I'm trying to find the price tag.
28:44
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't see it all at quick headlines, but draft king's acquired rail birds, which is a smaller obviously prediction market.
28:52
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm, man, we've been saying it that, you know, draft king's has to draft king's endfanned to us to be kind of worried after seeing all the flows for polymarking or the calcium for Robinhood, you know, the,
29:05
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I don't see it, but draft King's just bought a prediction market.
29:08
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't see the exact number for what they acquired rail birds for, but something will dive into more with Brian on Friday, because I know he's our, he's our prediction market's guru and just loves that stuff.
29:18
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, as as do I in the sense of like I look at it as gambling prediction markets, you know, for me or not an investing type of thing, but I think it's where you can get a lot of information to help your investment decisions.
29:30
[SPEAKER_03]: You could also use it to hedge, but if you're, if you're making wagers on there, that's what I think they are, they're wagers, they're bets, um, and not investing.
29:40
[SPEAKER_03]: It is it is the future and it's it's clearly I don't know if it's the future as much as it's the present it's here And that's something again if people are more interested in that stuff Brian and I have been talking about doing maybe some content around it Especially on the YouTube so if you're interested in that You know leave us a comment let us know and Twitter or YouTube and we can make Brian and I are more than willing to make some more content for you on that stuff
30:03
[SPEAKER_03]: But continuing on, where are we going next, Brendan after the polymarket stuff?
30:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Just a couple quick videos, I guess, to end the show.
30:09
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know, go ahead.
30:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, no, that was it.
30:12
[SPEAKER_02]: I was going to say, let's watch this video.
30:13
[SPEAKER_03]: Couple quick videos here.
30:15
[SPEAKER_03]: This is what I pulled from this week while we were gone.
30:17
[SPEAKER_03]: So the Fed,
30:19
[SPEAKER_03]: We had federal reserve governor, Christopher Waller, was talking about kind of how crypto currency is going to be woven into the fabric of payments of the financial system.
30:31
[SPEAKER_03]: And so why I think that's important is number one, he's on the fed, so you've got to give them their spec.
30:35
[SPEAKER_03]: But this guy is actually in line, he's on the short list to be possibly the replacement for Jerome Powell.
30:41
[SPEAKER_03]: So this is somebody who, again, has close respected ties to the White House.
30:46
[SPEAKER_03]: And he's talking about crypto.
30:48
[SPEAKER_03]: So whenever that happens of somebody who could be in the next position to be the fed share talking about crypto I think we should take a look.
30:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's listen This is an acknowledgement Distributed ledgers and crypto assets are no longer on the fringes What are increasingly woven into the fabric of the payment and financial system?
31:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Now before we hear from these innovators, I would like to touch on roles of the part Federal Reserve plays to support the private sector
31:13
[SPEAKER_00]: These include serving as a convener, solve coordination problems, and operating core payment and settlement infrastructure.
31:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We are also looking ahead, conducting hands-on research on tokenization, using smart contracts, and the intersection of AI and payments for using our own payments.
31:32
[SPEAKER_00]: We do this to understand the innovation happening within the payment system as well as to evaluate whether these technologies could provide opportunities to upgrade our own payment infrastructures and to enable us to have deeper conversations with the industry on these new technologies.
31:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Again, just another case of, you know, the world, the banking system, basically, you know, like I said, the world based everything's coming on chain, eventually is where the pox seems to be going and the most interesting part of that is I think this guy is truly a top three short list to be the next Fed share.
32:08
[SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, when he's when these people of power are talking like that, you got to listen.
32:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I would agree, you know, he's like one of the top candidates and to be interesting to see a, you know, the head of the Federal Reserve and the head of the SEC and the head of the US government, like if everyone's so pro-crypto, I think it's pretty hard to be bearish on it.
32:27
[SPEAKER_02]: So again, you know, maybe going back to the original narrative of like the news is still really, really positive, right, right, all the fundamentals side, all the news, everything is still looking really good.
32:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I think it is.
32:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Hard to be bearish on the long term, you know now listed we're gonna have our moves up We're gonna have our moves down the crypto market moves around.
32:46
[SPEAKER_02]: It's volatile.
32:47
[SPEAKER_02]: It always has And it probably will be for a very long time So that's not going anywhere, but some breaking news out of Washington here.
32:54
[SPEAKER_03]: I'll share this tab Breaking news out of Washington It's the alumus who always you know as a tweet seems like once a week, but says it's a big day in Washington for the digital asset market structure
33:05
[SPEAKER_03]: which I guess implying is there's been some movement of whatever meeting she's having right now in the morning she's tweeting out to a big day meeting today.
33:13
[SPEAKER_03]: I know update other than that but we'll circle back on Friday if anything kind of comes out to what specifically she's talking about but to your point Brendan it's like you know again where's the pocket of momentum still on the side of crypto from you know the Fed to the White House to the SEC so you know I think I know we both think you're in the right
33:36
[SPEAKER_02]: 100% man.
33:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, we're going to continue to keep everyone updated with what's going on.
33:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you're having big players add some of these top cryptos, B&B for everyone who doesn't know the Binance token hit the number three spot, the third largest cryptocurrency.
33:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's kind of been fighting again with some other crypto as to keep that spot, but it hit it.
33:58
[SPEAKER_02]: And then we saw both Coinbase and Robinhood lists the token, which is a pretty big deal.
34:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, things
34:06
[SPEAKER_03]: No, no, I thought that was interesting, because again, it's like B&B is a competitor with Coinbase and they always like, oh Coinbase doesn't, you know, ad V&B because it's competitor in Brian Armstrong, so I was like, yeah, no worries.
34:17
[SPEAKER_03]: Well, add you and then sure enough, Robino just right behind it.
34:20
[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, that was always, you know, obviously one of the largest market cap, you know, all coins, there is not on kind of the two biggest or definitely Coinbase, the biggest exchange, you know, in the US.
34:31
[SPEAKER_03]: So yeah, I just think that's that's an interesting point.
34:33
[SPEAKER_03]: We talked about how.
34:34
[SPEAKER_03]: All these issues were going on last, uh, was a last week, and Binance had all these issues, and the token didn't drop, you know, precipitously at a large amount, so it's definitely interesting.
34:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Not only did it not drop, but hit new all-time highs afterwards.
34:50
[SPEAKER_02]: It was like the biggest liquid agent event in history, completely caused by them in their systems, and it not working on the back end, and the token went to new all-time highs, and it was like, all right, well, this is like a bit ridiculous.
35:02
[SPEAKER_03]: Fascinating.
35:03
[SPEAKER_03]: I got one more video for us to play.
35:05
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't know.
35:05
[SPEAKER_03]: Sorry.
35:06
[SPEAKER_03]: Go ahead before we play it.
35:06
[SPEAKER_03]: Good.
35:07
[SPEAKER_03]: Final thought.
35:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I was just going to make a joke.
35:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
35:09
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't complain.
35:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Like obviously I think it's completely ludicrous for something like that to happen.
35:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's frustrating because a lot of people lost money.
35:16
[SPEAKER_02]: But
35:17
[SPEAKER_02]: I have exposure to BNB so it's like as crazy and frustrated as it makes me I don't want to fight the trend and so I know that there's problem listen I can't prove it.
35:27
[SPEAKER_02]: There's probably some shenanigans going behind on behind the scenes of BNB to push it up to be that much.
35:34
[SPEAKER_02]: But I have exposure.
35:35
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not going to fight it.
35:36
[SPEAKER_02]: We always say the trend is your friend.
35:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And if you can't beat them, join them.
35:39
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's my stance.
35:41
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, no, couldn't agree more.
35:42
[SPEAKER_03]: But again, just an interesting time volatility everywhere.
35:46
[SPEAKER_03]: But again, you have Van Eck, one of the, you know, one of the biggest firms on Wall Street talking about Bitcoin in the way that it does.
35:54
[SPEAKER_03]: uh... they're not alone uh... you know from state street uh... Goldman Sachs uh... now what city group uh... initiated coverage on big coin it's just all those things from the wall street bulls around bitcoin continue but uh... i saw this clip last week i thought was interesting where vanaque is
36:10
[SPEAKER_03]: You know, we hear all these million dollar predictions, $2.3 million to match gold and now we got Maniac coming out $3 million.
36:17
[SPEAKER_01]: That points.
36:18
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's hear what that's all about.
36:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Coin becomes a reserve asset that's used in global trade and held by global central banks at a very modest 2% weight.
36:29
[SPEAKER_01]: And in that model, we arrive at a $3 million price target for Bitcoin.
36:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, that sounds, you know, extreme, but that's a 16%.
36:37
[SPEAKER_01]: compound annual growth rate for a couple decades, you know, that's not really that extreme.
36:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So into the millions over the medium term is high conviction call.
36:46
[SPEAKER_03]: High conviction call basically that's pretty similar to, uh, to Michael Salars kind of, uh, you know, long-term outlook of that, you know, 16 to 18 percent compound over a long period of time, but still just fascinating, uh, fascinating to hear that.
37:03
[SPEAKER_03]: Uh, again, this is a channel, let's see NBC Fox business.
37:07
[SPEAKER_03]: These these TV channels that, you know, laughed a decade or less ago, even five years ago, right, of Bitcoin being, you know, a scam.
37:14
[SPEAKER_03]: And now they're segments talking about million to three million dollar Bitcoin.
37:18
[SPEAKER_03]: So,
37:18
[SPEAKER_03]: And in my opinion, you're in the right place, you're still early in the infancy of this journey to acceptance from cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, but it's not the first inning, definitely, when you hear stuff like that on national TV and you have the possibly the new Fed governor talking about cryptocurrency and payment rails on the blockchain.
37:39
[SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, I don't think we're in the first inning, Brendan, but I don't think we're also, we're not in the ninth inning, we're early in this game, you know, maybe around the third, third inning if we wanted to keep that up.
37:48
[SPEAKER_03]: keep that, you know, the innings type of, we got what do you call that?
37:53
[SPEAKER_03]: It's not a sip, it's a bad pod casting to there.
37:57
[SPEAKER_03]: An example, but yeah, I think we're like in the third inning, it's still early, but that's why you're here.
38:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it is, so lots of great stuff to come here, everyone.
38:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Still, I get a lot going on, and we're gonna continue to cover it as everything's happening.
38:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So, we appreciate all of you joining in here.
38:16
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38:19
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38:23
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38:25
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38:29
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38:34
[SPEAKER_02]: So check us out and we thank you all for watching, but until then, we'll see all of you at the same time the same place very soon.