Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / "Buy Everything" + Stock Market News 06 June 2024

Transcript

"Buy Everything" + Stock Market News 06 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: cocaine.
• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: You see that Maybe here.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Ah, there we go.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Electrolytes Amazing, discovered electrolytes about six months ago and I'm addicted, officially.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: It gives you tremendous energy, especially when you exercise.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: But you're not here for electrolytes.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Are you here for like?
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Why should we buy everything?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Let me walk you through it what it means that NVIDIA is trading at $1 billion, and how we make money out of this.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: What is the smarter thing to buy today than not, and how high can we go?
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: And everything else in between.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So let's get cracking, shall we?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I just see YouTube is also alive and well, which is good to see.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: It usually crashes when I open this.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And, yes, we have made something for you which is a benchmark of all the AI stocks that Goldman Sachs recommends.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: And I know someone's going to say well, goldman Sachs recommends it.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: It means it's crap, they're not recommending it to you, they're recommending it to institutional clients.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit of a better list and it's a spreadsheet Download it.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Of a better list and it's a spreadsheet download it.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: There are two tabs in here.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: One is the PC upgrade trade idea, basically just that we have to upgrade our PC devices and phones and everything else to be able to use AI.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: And the second is sort of the software hardware upgrade cycle and again I put all the stocks in there in a particular order and in alphabetical order actually, and you can see, like, the gross margins, you can see the return on invested capital, you can see how much they're growing, how much their profits are going up by current PEs, predicted forward PEs and everything else in between, how much they've gone up by in the last nine months and so on.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be a really useful list if people are looking for things to buy, and I see some of you guys looking at exactly that.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So in the chat, so do look at that.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: We've just missed, haven't we?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I think we just missed this SpaceX flight.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: It's rather exciting.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I thought Let me turn off the sound.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Awaiting acquisition of Signal.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: 1.8 million people are watching this, apparently, so it's kind of an interesting one.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I'll pop it on another screen and see if something happens and I'll pop it on the screen for you.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there we are.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So go and download that FelixRentzorg slash AI and it's not bad either.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Down to a ton of collagen powder, that's not bad either.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Alrighty, let me share my screen with you.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We walked through a few things here that are important.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We just got challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims and it's really jobs week.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Friday is the climax of this jobs week that we're very, very excited about.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And what are we looking at?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: We're looking at continuing jobless claims.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Let me just hit refresh on the YouTube page because something funky going on over there Can't see myself.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I like to see myself.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: No vanity there.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, I can see that we're live now.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Brilliant Also helps me to see that you can see what I can see, which is kind of important, isn't it?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So what did we just get out?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: We got jobless claims out and they've ticked up 9,000.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I've got a white pen, brilliant.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So is that good or bad?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: It's probably good.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: It's moderately higher.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: It continuing jobless claims increased moderately.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, nobody believes this data, obviously anyway.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: But you know, there we are, we have to live with it.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: And then what have we got?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Productivity but flat Labor costs going up at 4%.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: That's lower than expected.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Actually, that's good.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: That's actually a real positive here.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at how the market's reacting to that.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at how the market's reacting to that.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at the live.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: The live.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Have a look at SPY or something here.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Spy, have a look at QQQ.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: It's going on all these crazy indicators.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Let's get rid of crazy indicators.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Crazy indicators do very little for you.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, this is SPY Looks pretty good, we're nice and green, we're a percentage point up and on the QQQ we're basically flat, but still up since the data's come out.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Hang on, why isn't QQQ trading pre-market?
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: It's good, that's a date child.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Have we lost our models?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Finally, there we go, there we go.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So data came in at 8.30.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: See, and where was that?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: That was here.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: We look at just one screen.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a bit confusing with two.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: We tanked initially because unemployment is still pretty tight, but then we were recovering as people are realizing that the job inflation is looking a little bit better.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: That's by QQQ.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Same story, it's almost identical.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: What about something like NVIDIA?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: How much does that react to jobs data?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Still does, doesn't it?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: There's the jobs data.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, still does Down a little bit from that news, but it's still at $1,239 here pre-market, which is still pretty lofty.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Doesn't lower labor cost me lower real wages?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Yes, but the market doesn't really particularly care about that so much because people getting poorer is kind of part of the playbook of the Fed.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: I think the market cares more about inflation at this point.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And yes, you're right, the whole thing is, of course, going to head towards a recession.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I've been saying that for over a year.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Obviously, we haven't had the official recession yet, but I think we're going to get it.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, labor costs.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: There we are Now.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Nvidia, of course, is the elephant in the room.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Massive, massive rally yesterday.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: That's the candle from yesterday.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Another gap up, one gap up, two gaps up, three gaps up.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Really crazy stuff.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Massive green candle, obviously indicator in the background screaming buy me, buy me, buy me, please.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: I'm sailing through the $1,200 resistance here like a warm knife through butter and the upward trend is just very strong.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: It would take a very brave person to bet against the upward trend here.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So if you're in an upward trend like that and this is a screenshot from Options Watch use the support levels, the red levels, use those to position your trades right.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So don't use the resistance on the way up to go.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: It's never going to go through that Well.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: It's been going through every other resistance ever since you might want to set up a trade at 1, or at 1000.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: That's bullish from there and make money from there, and then you've got a bit of a room for error if it bounces down a little bit.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: That's kind of how you want to use these.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: If you look at best performers yesterday, this is a screen grab.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: It's a bit out of focus.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: The AI PC upgrades 4%.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Yesterday.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Non-profitable tech did 3.5%, tech did 3.5%, ai did 3.5%, memes did 3% and hardware centers did 3%.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So you can see the theme that we've been talking about for the last weeks now and again data down below felixfrenzorg slash AI.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Download it.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Here it is.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I see about 15 of you have taken advantage of that.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Encourage more of you to do the same thing of you have taken advantage of that.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I'd encourage more of you to do the same thing.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: And that's like where the party is at right now.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Everybody is also trading NVIDIA.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: You're not special.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, the value here traded 47 billion in terms of shares.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Tesla only 8 billion traded.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Apple only 7 billion traded.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So it's a monstrously larger.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: It's basically the same trading volume as the next nine stocks.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It's really, really bonkers what's going on out there right now.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: And Goldman Sachs that's what GS stands for Apologies for the acronyms Goldman Sachs, the bankers with a heart.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: They just reiterated that they continue to see significant economic upside from generative AI, implying a 15% increase in US labor productivity and GDP.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: They're basically saying you're going to become much more productive because they're going to need to employ much less of you.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: That's kind of the idea really.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So it's a good thing for people, probably not the short term for the economy, for investors?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Hell yeah, absolutely.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So what would you buy?
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: This again, why I put out the sheet down below.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: What would you buy if you saw this cheat, this sheet, and you had this, a piece of information which you now?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: This is semis, semiconductors, chips.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Then you've got in red sort of electrical equipment stuff, electrical, tricky word to write.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And then you've got in blue here that one is utilities, because you're going to need a lot of energy to power this stuff.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: And then, in almost the same blue, who makes charts and goes?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I know I can use all the colors in the world.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I'll use two blues that look almost identical.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, really like what are they smoking?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Who made this?
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: So the other blue one is software.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So I'm feeling rather bullish on software with a bit of a longer time horizon Ops, because it's going to take a little bit longer for software revenues to really pick up.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there you are.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: That might be screenshot worthy, don't you think?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I think it might well be.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: We can talk about interest rates in just a second.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: There as well.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Abbas appreciate that Blue and bluer.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: I know let's just go for kind of a turquoise blue and a very pale blue.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: That's almost the same as the other one.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: What about green, you know?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: What about white or red even?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: All right, this is also what's going on in AI.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Chat.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Gpt is basically keeping the old media alive because, chatgpt, you can't see the bloody blue.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Now can you?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Chatgpt is paying all the publishers for access to their archives and everything they're putting out so that they can process it and then they can spit out information.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: So they paid News Corp you know Fox part of that 250 million dollars.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal, vox, le Monde, axel Springer, which is a German outlet that sits actually where I'm from Business Insider, so on, el Pais, everybody, they have literally the FT.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: They're paying all these guys for access to their stuff.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Reddit, yeah, reddit, reddit's being read by ChatGPT bots.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: All these guys for access to their stuff.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Reddit, yeah, reddit, reddit's being read by Chachupi Teapots, which is kind of interesting to see where they come out of that, and people.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I mean that was essential, wasn't it?
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Imagine if we didn't have that information, and better home and gardens could be brilliant.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Actually, you know what For gardening, chachupi Tea freaking amazing Type in and say I've got these 20 plants, I want to grow them.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: How do I put them together?
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: What soil do I need?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: What fertilizer do I need?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: You know everything else and it literally spit out like the whole thing for you.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Short of drawing you a map and digging, it does the whole thing for you.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: It's pretty, pretty insane.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Rate cuts yeah, canada just cut their rates.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: I haven't actually read the news yet that in the last half hour, what happened in Europe?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: The Europeans are meant to cut rates today.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Ecb cuts rates, raises inflation forecast.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: That headline I mean the headline makes no sense, right?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: They're cutting rates and raising inflation forecasts.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Interesting, interesting.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: It's a baffling move, isn't it?
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I mean you have to have your head on back to front, like Lagarde does, or maybe face Okay.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we've got rate cuts.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: So you think the US of A is not going to cut their rates.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: What would happen if the US doesn't cut their rates?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: What happens?
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: American goods get more expensive.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: What is going to happen to the Canadian dollar?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: It's going to drop.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: What's going to happen to the euro?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: It's going to drop.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Interest rates are lower.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: It makes less sense to own bonds, debt, in Canadian dollars and euros right now.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So what happens to the dollar?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Dollar goes up.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So if at some point, the US is going to have to do what the US is going to have to do, right?
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: So what do you think about NVIDIA?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: How much higher could we go?
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I put on this chart here the RSI, the sort of momentum resistance index.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Is it overboard?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: And this is the white line here at the top.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So we're pretty overboard.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: We're at 75.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: We've been higher.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: When we were that high, we did a little bit of a mini dip and then we came back up.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: When we were that high, we also did a bit of a mini dip and then we came back up.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So the party, I think, will keep going with a few little dips, so don't be too worried about that.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: But I think NVIDIA just looks absolutely freaking, unbeatable right now.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: This is the other thing that really freaked me out today.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: You know who this is.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: This is your friend, novomax, is that how you spell it?
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Novavax, even Crikey, fairly far off, right, novavax.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I just don't like spelling the word vax.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: And what are they doing?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: They're developing the latest COVID-19 vaccine that apparently you desperately want in this coming autumn.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Who wants a COVID vax?
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Raise your hand and then please exit the chat.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: No, no, we welcome all opinions.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: I just think this is a bit of bollocks.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: But yeah, stocks flying Absolutely insane rally here, getting approval, apparently according to European and FDA standards.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I'm sure the big boys will be snapping at the heels, but yeah, that's the story there.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: More vaccinations, just what we needed, right, and what else is going on in the world?
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: We'll get our AI stock list, so you know at least what Goldman Sachs is buying, or