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Tokyo’s ‘Thatcher’ lands Japan’s top job · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Kristan Amiot.
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  Speaker 1: It's Monday, October sixth, twenty twenty five. The clock is
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  Speaker 1: ticking on a Middle East peace deal proposed by US
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  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump. HAMAS is split on whether to agree
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  Speaker 1: to the plan, which would require the militant group to
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  Speaker 1: fully disarm, destroy its weapons, and leave Gaza for good.
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  Speaker 1: Talks between HAMAS and the United States will take place
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  Speaker 1: in Egypt on Monday, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netnyahu
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  Speaker 1: said he hopes all remaining hostages held in Gaza will
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  Speaker 1: be returned in the coming days. Support for Pauline Hansen's
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: One Nation Party has almost doubled since the federal election
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  Speaker 1: in May, while care support for the coalition is lingering
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  Speaker 1: at record lows. That's according to new data from Newspoll,
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  Speaker 1: which also says the Albanese Labour government has recorded its
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  Speaker 1: strongest primary vote in more than two years. You can
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  Speaker 1: read our experts analysis right now at the Australian dot
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  Speaker 1: com dot au. Japan will usher in its newest prime
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  Speaker 1: minister in as many years in a matter of weeks.
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  Speaker 1: The question is can Sanai Takeichi the first woman to
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  Speaker 1: be elevated to the top job. Hang on to it.
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  Speaker 1: That's today's episode. She was so firm and uncompromising in
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  Speaker 1: her politics they called her the Iron Lady. Margaret Thatcher
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  Speaker 1: was the longest serving British Prime Minister of the twentieth
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  Speaker 1: century and the first woman to hold the position.
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  Speaker 2: It is our purpose to return the power and influence
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  Speaker 2: of this House are not to denude it of many
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  Speaker 2: of the powers.
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  Speaker 1: The conservative ideology that drove her policies and also her
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  Speaker 1: unique style came to be known as Thatcherism, and the
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  Speaker 1: people who subscribe to it were dubbed Thatcher Rights. It's
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  Speaker 1: a label. Sixty four year old Tona Takaichi bears proudly
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  Speaker 1: a longtime admirer of Thatcher's. Takaiji is the first woman
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  Speaker 1: to be elected to lead Japan's conservative Liberal Democratic Party,
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  Speaker 1: clearing the way for her to become the country's new
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  Speaker 1: Prime minister in a matter of weeks.
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  Speaker 2: She's very much modeled herself as an inheritor of the
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  Speaker 2: shinto Abe political tradition in Japan.
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  Speaker 1: Will Glasgow is The Australian's North Asia correspondent.
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  Speaker 2: And she's very much a conservative. She's from that Abe
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  Speaker 2: wing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, But while she's
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  Speaker 2: got a lot of the same political instincts or conservative
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  Speaker 2: positions as Abe, she's not got anything like the track
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  Speaker 2: record of electoral success that Abe has had. Now she's
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  Speaker 2: won this part vote, but there's really a lot of
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  Speaker 2: questions about will she actually get very far in prosecuting
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  Speaker 2: that case to return to the Abe legacy.
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  Speaker 1: Japan's Liberal Democratic Party has governed almost continuously since its
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  Speaker 1: inception in the nineteen fifties. It oversaw Japan's recovery following
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  Speaker 1: World War II, turning it into an economic superpower and
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  Speaker 1: developing a pro America foreign policy. Sanai Takeichi is the
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  Speaker 1: second party leader to be elected in the space of
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  Speaker 1: a year.
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  Speaker 3: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has moments ago said he is resigning.
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  Speaker 3: The decision to step down comes as Issuba works to
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  Speaker 3: avoid a split within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDPS.
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  Speaker 2: By the time he steps down, there will be five
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  Speaker 2: former prime ministers from the LDP in the party room
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  Speaker 2: when they gather five former and then this new prime minister,
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  Speaker 2: So the churn has returned. So you've had a very
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  Speaker 2: turbulent period within the LDP as the factions jostle with
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  Speaker 2: one another for who should lead, with no one since
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  Speaker 2: Abe resigned and he was later horrendously assassinated in twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty two. But since then, there's just been no one
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  Speaker 2: who's been able to assert dominance over Japanese politics in
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  Speaker 2: anything like that way, and look like they had a
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  Speaker 2: firm grip on power. They've always been undermined by some
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  Speaker 2: other faction within the party, and at every single election
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  Speaker 2: since he stood down, they've performed poorly. So look in
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  Speaker 2: her victory speech after winning the leadership contests on Saturday night,
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  Speaker 2: she was very frank that the party's facing a very
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  Speaker 2: difficult outlook. She said, rather than feeling happy now, I
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  Speaker 2: feel the future is truly difficult, and really every analyst
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  Speaker 2: of Japanese politics, all her party members would agree with that.
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  Speaker 2: Her next challenge is to secure so poured from other
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  Speaker 2: minor parties in the Japanese political system. She doesn't need
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  Speaker 2: that to become the prime minister. She just needs the
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  Speaker 2: most votes when the Japanese Parliament, the Diet meets most
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  Speaker 2: likely in the next fortnight, but it's still to be
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  Speaker 2: confirmed by the time we're talking. But then to pass
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  Speaker 2: any legislation her LDP party is going to need the
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  Speaker 2: support of minor parties in the Japanese system, and the
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  Speaker 2: LDP's natural coalition partner, it's a much more moderate political party,
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  Speaker 2: and Takashi was by far the least popular amongst that
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  Speaker 2: minor party. So even the existing coalition agreement that the
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  Speaker 2: LDP has, or coalition arrangement at least, even that's looking uncertain.
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  Speaker 2: But then those two parties together don't now have enough
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  Speaker 2: votes in the lower House, and that's where things get
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  Speaker 2: really complicated for her and really complicated for Japanese politics.
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  Speaker 2: It's an unusual state of affairs where so many of
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  Speaker 2: the minor parties are in play and could potentially be
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  Speaker 2: crucial to passing in any legislation. And it's why as
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  Speaker 2: she's just won this party vote and is on the
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  Speaker 2: cusp of making history as Japan's first female prime minister,
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  Speaker 2: there are questions about how long is she going to
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  Speaker 2: last in both of those roles.
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  Speaker 1: So Ken Senai Takeichi right the ship.
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  Speaker 2: Look, she's on me the conservative side of the Liberal
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  Speaker 2: Democratic Party. There are much more conservative or hardline or nationalists,
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  Speaker 2: and so the pitch that Takashi and her supporters have
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  Speaker 2: made is that she's going to be able to bring
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  Speaker 2: some of those voters who have drifted away from the
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  Speaker 2: LDP towards these upstart parties. She's going to be able
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  Speaker 2: to bring quite a few of them back, and it's
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  Speaker 2: over to her to prove that. The flip is though
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  Speaker 2: she lost to rivals who have much more appeal amongst
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  Speaker 2: your hands, big cities and amongst Japan's younger voters, and
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  Speaker 2: that's where all the polling shows she really struggles. So
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  Speaker 2: there is no perfect candidate for the LDP who can
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  Speaker 2: straddle both those worlds. They've tacked to her and perhaps
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  Speaker 2: she's going to be able to arrest that decline and
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  Speaker 2: votes from the right of the party and bring people
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  Speaker 2: back in. But the danger for them is that she
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  Speaker 2: loses more from the party's left amongst its moderate voters,
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  Speaker 2: So you know, that's a real challenge she's got. And look, finally,
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  Speaker 2: a key thing to note about her is in this
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  Speaker 2: leadership tilled she spoke often quite vaguely on a lot
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  Speaker 2: of topics, so on a whole bunch of policy issues.
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  Speaker 2: It's just really unclear as a prime minister how she
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  Speaker 2: going to behave compared to we know where she's been
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  Speaker 2: as someone who's been free of that office, but it's
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  Speaker 2: quite a different thing once she's the Japanese Prime minister
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  Speaker 2: as to where she's going to land on a lot
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  Speaker 2: of these things.
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  Speaker 1: Takaichi is described as a China Hawk. Of course, Australia
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  Speaker 1: is concerned about China's growing military might end its apparent
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  Speaker 1: objectives in the Pacific. How is her election as party
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  Speaker 1: leader and probable prime minister likely to influence that dynamic.
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  Speaker 2: She's long been a hardliner or maybe you call her
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  Speaker 2: a China hawk on relations with Beijing. Again during the campaign,
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  Speaker 2: though she's spoke much more moderately about China. So even
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  Speaker 2: in her foreign policy positions, where she's often been quite
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  Speaker 2: loud and consistent up until this leadership contest, even there,
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  Speaker 2: it's not quite clear how much of those positions she's
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  Speaker 2: well known for in Japanese public life, how much of
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  Speaker 2: those are going to endure in office. And I guess
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  Speaker 2: one of the things a lot of people are watching
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  Speaker 2: for clues on that are who is she going to
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  Speaker 2: put into key posts. So we just have to wait
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  Speaker 2: and see on that, and again it'll give us an
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  Speaker 2: indicator into how she's going to behave Now some of
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  Speaker 2: these questions, we won't be left asking for long. She's
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  Speaker 2: going to be most likely becoming Japan's Prime minister just
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  Speaker 2: before summit season, so she's expected to be at the
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  Speaker 2: Asian Leaders Meeting towards the end of October that's in Malaysia,
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  Speaker 2: and then right after that she's expected to host Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 2: the American President, in Tokyo, just before they both go
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  Speaker 2: to APEC, which is going to be in South Korea
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  Speaker 2: on the last day of October, and then on too
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  Speaker 2: November first, So she's going to meet at least on
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  Speaker 2: the sidelines. We don't know if you'll have a formal
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  Speaker 2: bilateral meeting, but she'll meet China's leader, Shijinping. So how
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  Speaker 2: that meeting with she goes, how she behaves in the
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  Speaker 2: meeting with Trump, how she goes with other regional leaders.
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  Speaker 2: All of those questions are going to be answered very
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  Speaker 2: soon by her on the global stage with all of
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  Speaker 2: us watching. Coming up.
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  Speaker 1: What the elevation of Sinai Takaichi means for Australia. In August,
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  Speaker 1: Australia awarded a lucrative military contract to Japanese shipbuilder Mitsubishi
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  Speaker 1: Heavy Industries. Well, Japan has won a fierce battle to
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  Speaker 1: build a new fleet of Australian warships, winning a ten
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  Speaker 1: billion dollar contract with the Albanese government. Add to that
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  Speaker 1: a commitment to train Japanese troops alongside Australians and Americans
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  Speaker 1: in the top end, and you've got the makings of
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  Speaker 1: a strong geostrategic relationship. Just lastly, Will You wrote for
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  Speaker 1: The Australian that this is Anthony Albanese's third Japanese counterpart
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  Speaker 1: since he was elected as Prime Minister in twenty twenty two,
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  Speaker 1: and that of course begs the question of what Sana
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  Speaker 1: Takachi means for Australia's bilateral relationship with Japan.
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  Speaker 2: History shows us that the Australian Japan relationship has been
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  Speaker 2: able to not only endure, but actually strengthened despite a
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  Speaker 2: lot of political instability. So in the Abe era, actually
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  Speaker 2: Canberra was the source of instability, you know Shinzo Abe
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  Speaker 2: when he was first elected. Julia Gillard was Australia's Prime
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  Speaker 2: minister for a couple of months before Kevin Rudd returned
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  Speaker 2: for a couple of months before Tony Abbott was elected
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  Speaker 2: for a few years before Malcolm Turnbull came into power.
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  Speaker 2: For a couple more years before Scott Morrison did so.
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  Speaker 2: All through that though, Japan and Australia really improved and
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  Speaker 2: more closely aligned their strategic relationship, working much more on
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  Speaker 2: shared foreign policy and security goals. What really united them
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  Speaker 2: was to share concern about Beijing, about the increased capabilities
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  Speaker 2: of the People's Liberation Army and it's more assertive behavior
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  Speaker 2: in the region. Now in the first Trump era, Washington's
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  Speaker 2: unreliability also became a shared concern between Tokyo and Canberra.
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  Speaker 2: And of course it is again so the strategic alignment
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  Speaker 2: that brings the two countries together. If anything, it's only
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  Speaker 2: intensified since then. So I think that, however long this
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  Speaker 2: next Japanese Prime minister last, I think that the relationship
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  Speaker 2: between Australia and Japan is just so strategically important, it's
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  Speaker 2: also economically important. I mean, Japan is Australia's second biggest
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  Speaker 2: economic market. All that said, though, it's not a new
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  Speaker 2: thing that we've got short term Japanese prime ministers, and
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  Speaker 2: that they're revolving within the LDP itself, going from one
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  Speaker 2: faction to another. A concerning thing for Australia is that
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  Speaker 2: the LDP's electoral popularity has fallen so much that there
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  Speaker 2: are questions about is that pattern going to endure? You know,
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  Speaker 2: if the LDP actually lost government an opposition came in,
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  Speaker 2: then the band of foreign policy positions really grows, and
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  Speaker 2: it's not clear that Australia Japanese alignment would be quite
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  Speaker 2: so comfortable and natural as it has been throughout the
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  Speaker 2: LDP period. And the worst case scenario for Australia is
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  Speaker 2: that this is an unsuccessful prime ministership that even worsens
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  Speaker 2: the party's position within the Japanese electorate to such a
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  Speaker 2: point that the Japanese public goes for quite a different
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  Speaker 2: sort of a medley of other parties, and that they
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  Speaker 2: throw up some foreign policy positions that make that Australia
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  Speaker 2: Japan relationship much less clear or makes working together much harder.
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  Speaker 1: Well Glasgow is The Australian's North Asia correspondent. You can
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  Speaker 1: read all his reporting and analysis right now at the
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au