Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 183: What Trump’s Argentina Beef Comments Mean for the Cattle Market with Dan Gerhold and Samantha Cozza-Wright

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183: What Trump’s Argentina Beef Comments Mean for the Cattle Market with Dan Gerhold and Samantha Cozza-Wright · CattleUSA Daily

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In today's episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast, we are
0:02
discussing everything that is going on in the world of the
0:05
markets right now. This has been a little bit of a
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crazy week as far as the markets are concerned.
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With the news that hit on Sunday with President Trump's comment
0:14
on Argentinian beef and starting to import it to supplement the
0:17
cattle market and the high beef prices.
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We discuss all of these things today.
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Dan, myself and our guest Samantha all break it down on
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what our thoughts are as far as how what's affecting the market
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right now, how the new cycle is affecting the market, how this
0:35
is going to affect the market long term and just our candid
0:38
thoughts on importing beef, the American cattle producer and the
0:43
market as a whole. So without further ado, let's go
0:46
ahead and jump into this podcast.
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But before we do, if you guys could take a second to like and
0:51
subscribe, rate or review this podcast, we would really
0:54
appreciate it here at the team. Without further ado, let's go
0:56
ahead and jump into this episode with Dan, Samantha and myself.
1:04
Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
1:07
the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
1:10
updates shaping agriculture today.
1:12
I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
1:15
agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
1:18
Now let's dive into today's episode.
1:24
Dan, Samantha, welcome back to the podcast.
1:28
I'm excited to have you both on Samantha.
1:30
I'm excited to mix things up a little bit and kick Dan to the
1:33
backseat for just a few minutes at least.
1:36
Like we'll see how much we're able to get him to just like zip
1:40
his mouth and sip his coffee and sit back.
1:42
But I'm sure he's got a lot that he'll want to say.
1:45
So I'm excited to have you on to share a little bit more about
1:48
what we're seeing in the markets this week and all the things
1:51
and. Yeah, I'm excited to be back.
1:53
He's not here. I'm surprised you had me back
1:55
with our little disc congression against K State.
1:59
I can, I can forgive. I can, I can forgive.
2:02
It's it's OK. I did.
2:03
Honestly, I did forget about it until you just reminded me.
2:07
So awesome. Awesome.
2:11
Well, what are we seeing and the markets this week, guys, who
2:14
wants to, who wants to take it away?
2:17
Well, Lauren, I think since the last time you had me in last
2:19
podcast, you know, late September, we were kind of
2:22
talking about the same thing as far as keeping our president out
2:25
of the media and the havoc that it's kind of played on the
2:27
market. Thursday we seen him come out
2:30
and kind of say that he had the beef was too high and that was
2:33
something that we were needing to get lower.
2:35
But he didn't really put a lot of Intel on how we were going to
2:37
do it until Sunday there and he came and started talking about
2:41
Argentina imports and different things.
2:44
Friday, we definitely saw that affect the feeder cattle market
2:47
mainly being limit down there and unfortunately the auction
2:50
barns really felt the wrath of that around this area.
2:53
We were about 5 day lower on feeder steers and then pretty
2:56
significantly softer in the heifer market at the levels
3:00
we're at. I don't think it completely
3:02
wrecked the market by any means, but it definitely played with it
3:05
a little bit. Had a little bit of a weekend to
3:07
settle. And then again, he came out on
3:09
Sunday day, talked about important beef from Argentina,
3:12
thought that that would actually have more of a play here towards
3:15
the beginning of this week. But so far the first few days of
3:17
the week, we're up $0.98 on feeder cattle.
3:20
Nothing major, hasn't really drugged the live cattle market
3:24
down. Actually they're quite a $3 just
3:28
this week. So that's kind of what I'm
3:31
seeing on my. End.
3:33
Yeah, absolutely. Dan, do you have anything to add
3:36
to that part of the feeder cattle market or cash cattle
3:41
right now? Samantha summed it up really
3:44
well. It was kind of an overreaction
3:46
on Friday and things just kind of popped back here a little
3:48
bit. Yeah, Monday was lower,
3:50
definitely. OK C But inevitably, I bet here
3:52
by the end of the week that index pops right back up because
3:55
these northern northern sale barns, they're not softening
3:58
their prices. So excuse me, I bet that feeder
4:01
cattle index, you know, here on Thursday, Friday, I bet it's
4:04
going to be trending towards that new highs again.
4:07
We'll see. Yeah, it's it's like everybody's
4:10
shrugging it off inevitably quite the headline from from Mr.
4:16
Trump or President Trump, I should say quite the headline
4:19
from President Trump and and got everybody spooked at a big
4:23
liquidation of long said a guy selling thinking it was over, I
4:28
believe Thursday night. I'm not sure about Friday night.
4:31
Well, Friday night they didn't have Peter Kettle LRP available
4:34
because of the limit move. But Thursday night after his
4:37
comments, LRP hit its premium trigger where they can only
4:43
write so many dollars of LRP per day.
4:46
So we hit that thankfully from the producers that that would
4:51
have been rejected because they put it on after that limit was
4:53
reached, the RMA came in and they extended those limits so
4:56
they were able to accept those LRPS that were written Thursday
5:00
nights. That's that's good to hear RMA
5:03
working with people on that. So still like the product for
5:06
stuff like this, still like the product.
5:08
You know, when you, when you compare an LRP to what a a hedge
5:12
against the futures has done, everybody's telling me these
5:15
LRPS are expensive. And I'm like, you should see our
5:18
margin call. LRPS are cheap.
5:20
So but yeah, they're, they're definitely higher price than
5:23
normal, but you're protecting, you know, twice the price we
5:25
used to. So it naturally comes with more
5:28
risk. So yeah, quite the headline.
5:32
Quite the headline. Quite the headline and before we
5:34
dive into that we have I want to talk about everything else in
5:37
the markets and then we'll we'll dive in on that and discuss it a
5:41
little bit further. We've been talking a lot about
5:42
feeder cattle markets. Are there any other highs or
5:45
lows or anything else that we kind of need to touch on as far
5:48
as just the rest of the cattle market is going this week?
5:51
I know feeders have been the headlines and the hot topic for
5:54
everyone though. I mean, as far as features are
5:56
concerned, it's been sideways ever since that big move on
5:59
Friday lower. There's a gap on the feeder
6:01
cattle chart. It's pretty wide gap and you'd
6:04
like to see that gap filled within a day or two, if not 3
6:07
days at the latest. I really, really hope we chase
6:11
that gap higher or fill that gap today or possibly gap higher
6:14
that would leave an island bottom because I don't at these
6:18
levels leaving that size of gap there.
6:21
If you leave that for an extended period, we've got that
6:23
problem. It it might become one that's
6:25
that's difficult to come back and fill.
6:27
So you're coming into coming into October for your kettle
6:32
expiration. So that that contract is really
6:36
going to trade the index and whatever the index does, it's
6:39
not surprising it's trading just shy 373 right now.
6:43
You know, with Oklahoma City being down.
6:45
Yeah, that's going to pull the index down.
6:46
With the, you know, you get towards the end of the week,
6:50
those northern sales will bring it back up inevitably.
6:54
Feeder, October feeder futures don't expire until next
6:57
Thursday. So there's a lot of time for,
7:00
you know, physical cash feeders to bring that index back up,
7:03
maybe set some new highs if everybody does shrug this thing
7:06
off. Yeah, absolutely.
7:09
Good to know. Good to know.
7:10
OK, Thoughts on President Trump's comments on Sunday?
7:16
Samantha, would you like to lead us off in this discussion?
7:19
Oh, you bet. It's yes.
7:20
So I mean, I've stood behind Trump for a very long time.
7:23
I was very disappointed in his comments about the the cattle
7:26
industry. I think as far as agriculture is
7:28
concerned, he kind of needs to just step back and leave that to
7:31
Rollins, in my opinion. But you know, my concern with
7:36
Argentina, I think I don't think they have the the exportable
7:40
numbers to be able to really pose much of an effect to our
7:44
market here in the United States.
7:46
And if I realize most of those cuts are going to be your leaner
7:49
cuts anyway, whereas United States we're producing more of
7:53
those higher quality cuts. My concern there is just the
7:57
fact that they're labeling them as US beef.
8:01
I think if we're getting foreign imports, we need to be labeling
8:03
them as such and let the consumer really choose.
8:07
And we talked about when we talk about Trump staying out of the
8:09
media, I think a big portion of it too is keeping JVS and these
8:13
other these other global meat Packers out of the media as
8:16
well. We saw JBS come out in a
8:18
statement to the Financial Times and they kind of said that
8:22
America needs to import more beef, that US ranchers can't
8:25
keep enough with the supply or keep up with the the supply to
8:29
demand domestic, domestic demand.
8:32
So with that, we actually saw here in the years past that the
8:36
the amount of imports contributed to domestic demand
8:39
doubled and imports captured more of that increase than our
8:42
domestic production. And I think that right there
8:46
they talk about the effect of drought late 2020.
8:48
We've seen the effect of the South border being closed.
8:51
And I think that right there is what is depriving ranchers the
8:54
kind of the ability to keep up with domestic demand and it's
8:57
depriving them from that ability not only to keep up from the
9:01
cost and the demand of actual US beef.
9:04
And so that's kind of my concern.
9:06
They're going back to it. Like I said, do I think
9:08
Argentina importing from Argentina is going to wreck our
9:10
markets? Absolutely not.
9:12
I know we, we do a lot of for an import we imported, you know 64
9:16
billion in 2024. Obviously a lot of our imports
9:21
are foreign, but I think that we need to be very aware of how
9:24
cheaper imports could continue to diminish our numbers of the
9:28
domestic cattle herd here in the United States.
9:31
So that's kind of my take on it. You make some really good points
9:36
in a lot of different things. I also was very disappointed in
9:40
his comments and I think that I have backed President Trump for
9:44
a long time as well. Do I agree 100% with everything
9:46
that he does? No, I don't.
9:48
But this is one of those situations where he tends to
9:52
sometimes make comments on things without fully like
9:57
talking to his cabinet, talking to his secretaries.
10:00
I, I can guarantee you he didn't talk to Rawlins about this
10:03
before making a comment on it. I understand that we have a very
10:06
large consumer population that is concerned about the price of
10:09
beef and that is a hot topic right now.
10:12
He needed to make a comment on it.
10:14
It's unfortunate in the way that it went about, in the way that
10:18
it was kind of released and discussed without bringing in
10:21
the USDA and Rawlins and kind of what they can do there as well
10:25
to help mitigate a little bit, but of the backlash that we saw
10:28
from it. Because, Dan, you made a great
10:30
point before we hopped onto the podcast, we saw a lot of people
10:34
like ready to sell it all, ready to throw it in and be like,
10:39
well, what do I need to do, right?
10:41
Because it was one of those media firestorms that one little
10:45
ember lit a absolute haystack on fire and it just took the cattle
10:51
market by storm. Whether you were in the cattle
10:53
market or not, people were kind of concerned about the way that
10:57
it was going to impact things. But I also agree with you,
10:59
Samantha on the fact that I don't see it making a long term
11:03
domestic major impact on the cattle industry in what we are
11:08
producing. There is a difference between
11:10
the beef that we're going to be bringing in from Argentina and
11:13
the beef that we produce as American producers.
11:15
We have been for years producing really high quality beef.
11:19
The beef that we're going to be bringing in from Argentina, are
11:22
we going to see it in our cases that yes, there is a possibility
11:24
and a potential for that, but we're also going to be seeing it
11:27
in our dog food facilities and our facilities that need all of
11:31
the byproducts from beef and just everything like that, that
11:35
this these lower quality cattle and lower quality cuts are going
11:39
to go towards. And so I think it's important
11:41
for our producers to remember that like you said, Samantha, we
11:45
do bring in a lot of beef from other countries like this isn't
11:49
anything new, it's just from a different place.
11:51
And I do have concerns about the long term effects on the US
11:55
cattle herd. We are already seeing our lowest
11:57
numbers that we've seen since this is.
11:59
And so that is concerning as well that if we don't have that
12:03
push for further demand that we don't have people retaining
12:06
heffers, people continuing to increase their herd size because
12:10
of domestic demand. I see that as a concern as well.
12:12
But I also don't think that this is something that we need to be
12:15
throwing in our throwing everything in and saying, oh,
12:18
well, the American cattle producer is done.
12:20
I think that it was a little bit of an overreaction from a lot of
12:22
people this weekend. Yeah, yeah, I agree.
12:26
I think, I think using cheaper imports to supplement the US
12:29
beef cattle, the need for domestic supply in the United
12:33
States is definitely going to hurt us if we do start to see
12:36
more of that. You know, finally, for the past
12:38
decades as as ranchers, as producers, we've not seen profit
12:42
for decades. And we finally see these numbers
12:45
actually getting up to where we're able to pay the interest
12:47
rate off that operating loan. You know, we got high input
12:50
costs, you got high land costs and we're finally able to make a
12:53
profit to where where we can get back up on our feet and maybe
12:56
next year start to rebuild this cattle herd.
12:58
But if we are import, continuing to import, you know, cheaper
13:02
beef, that's going to take away that demand.
13:04
So that's that's kind of where I'm concerned.
13:06
Yeah. Dan. 100% agree with you guys on
13:11
many, many points. I mean, spot on.
13:14
Yeah. It's they're bringing in lean
13:16
beef, they're bringing in grinding.
13:18
It's they're not bringing in your rib eye steaks that are,
13:21
they're going to get, you know, put, put at the meat counter for
13:23
25 bucks a pound. It's not going to happen
13:26
inevitably, in my opinion. This was just a headline.
13:29
The market was already in the process of doing this.
13:32
In fact, if you look at our imports, they're up drastically
13:36
from where they were last year. So we were already importing
13:38
more beef. We were already exporting less
13:41
beef. And if you add that back to
13:43
where our parka sizes were and what we slaughtered so far this
13:46
year, we're actually throwing more beef in front of the
13:49
domestic consumer this year at record high prices than we have
13:54
in any of the last five years. The tune of an extra billion
13:57
pounds or more. Well, all that does is show me
14:01
how resilient and strong demand is.
14:03
Maybe there's 59 or 60 lbs of of beef that they claim, you know,
14:08
per person per year. Maybe that number is way low,
14:11
maybe it's 70, I don't know. But either way, demand is rock
14:14
solid. Yeah, we saw a shift when we hit
14:18
that 25 bucks a pound for those stakes.
14:20
We saw a shift on the state side, but it also came at the
14:23
time of year where we switched to Hamburg.
14:25
So at the end of the day, this was a headline for President
14:29
Trump. At the end of the day, the media
14:32
was pressing and really, really hard to come up with a solution
14:34
because this is the headline that was getting talked about
14:36
every week on major news with networks and all over social
14:39
media. So he had to say something.
14:42
Inevitably the market was already around market doing
14:45
market things and that was fixing the fact that our supply
14:48
was not high enough for where our demand was.
14:52
Now what else factors into that? OK, So if you want to keep
14:55
prices low, you have to have supply exceed where demand is.
15:01
So how do we make that burger since that's our big problem
15:04
right now? It's it's not the $2025 steaks
15:07
that were the big problem because this is the time of year
15:09
we're not a lot of people grill steaks.
15:11
So let's move away from that. What, what they're talking about
15:14
at six, six and a half dollar burger, what they're talking
15:17
about is everybody goes out to eat or goes to fast food and all
15:20
the sudden, you know, they're spending $40 just to buy a
15:23
couple of meals at, at a fast food restaurant.
15:26
That's what they're talking about is, is your Lean B ground
15:29
service even Yeah, six, 6 1/2, seven, some are some places or
15:34
$8 at the grocery counter for Lean B.
15:36
They're talking about that. So how do we, how do we increase
15:38
that supply? Well, plain simple, we don't
15:40
have enough. Why don't we have enough here in
15:42
America? Because we're not slaughtering
15:45
enough cows. Your fast ears don't make gobs
15:48
and gobs and gobs a hamburger. Yeah, they, they make grindings.
15:51
Yeah, but it's a lot of that fat gets funded off with some of
15:54
this lean. We don't mean what is the stat?
15:56
McDonald's serves like 6-7 million cheeseburgers a day.
15:59
I don't know if that's accurate. I think that's something I
16:01
heard. But we don't make enough.
16:04
And if you compare our our cow slaughter, that makes those
16:07
grindings. You know, last year, this year's
16:10
cow slaughter compared to last year's down 1213%.
16:14
This year's cow slaughter compared to two years ago is
16:17
down 25%. That is a huge deal.
16:19
That's a lot of cow cows that were slaughtering this year not
16:23
making up that lean beef. Well, if we just shut off the
16:27
border, shut off all imports, what are the consumers going to
16:31
do? They're going to have $10
16:32
hamburger. They have $10 hamburger.
16:35
They're going to go to pork and chicken.
16:37
It's just we, we temporarily need that lean beef in my
16:41
opinion, just to get us over this long.
16:43
If we get into next year, let's say that cow slaughter goes back
16:47
up because dairies of all the sudden seen their profit
16:50
margins, you know, slide a little bit sideways here and and
16:54
and get closer to the red. I mean, the only reason the
16:57
dairies are profitable right now is because cap prices are high
17:01
and coal Cal prices are high. OK, So what happens if that
17:04
changes? Well, the dairies are going to
17:06
have to start liquidating some of these cows that they retain
17:09
some of these older cows. The cowherd got old.
17:11
Same on the beef side. Our cowherd got older last year
17:14
because producers sold majority of their heckers and retain more
17:18
of those old cows. You had a good breeding season
17:20
last year. They retain that cow.
17:22
Hey, let's hold on under one more time.
17:24
That cast was 16 to 1800 bucks at the time.
17:27
Now they're worth 2122 hundred. So we're holding on to that cow
17:30
a little longer. Eventually we have to freshen up
17:33
both of those herds. That's going to drive more cow
17:36
slaughter. All of a sudden, we're going to
17:37
have more domestic grinding available when that cow
17:41
slaughter increased. But right now we just point
17:43
don't. So we have to increase those
17:45
imports. The unfortunate part, Trump made
17:48
the comment and the market freaked out.
17:51
He was pressed by the media. At the end of the day, the
17:54
market was already doing what he claims they made a deal to do.
17:59
It's just it wasn't in front and center spotlight.
18:01
And once Trump made the comment, it became front and center.
18:04
So that's the unfortunate part for now, we need the grindings.
18:09
I mean, it's it's not a popular opinion.
18:11
I would love to go back in time and change this to the point
18:15
that we could make enough grindings, make enough high
18:18
choice prime meat that, you know, we could supply every
18:21
consumer here and and we don't need other countries beef.
18:25
But the fact of the matter is we make our beef so stinking good
18:31
on the quality side that we don't have enough of those that
18:34
leaner, that grinding to go into those McDonald's tooth burgers
18:37
or Hardee's, Arby's, whatever. Temporarily.
18:41
We do need some of those imports.
18:43
To me, it's just a headline. Yeah, I think Trump making the
18:47
comment in the media had more of a play on the market than
18:52
actually importing Argentina beef will.
18:55
Yeah. Yeah, no, I agree with that 100%
18:59
too, that there is so much emphasis on media right now and
19:04
it was such a like comment that people just took and they ran
19:07
with it. I agree with that 100%.
19:10
And I agree with what you said to Dan.
19:12
My only concern is once we start, where do we stop?
19:17
Like once we because we've, we've, we've been an importer of
19:20
beef for a really long time, right.
19:22
But I don't want to get too reliant on importing beef.
19:26
Like I want us to use this as a supplemental option while we
19:31
need it and do different things that we can help the American
19:36
cattle herd rebuild and grow so that we can start supplementing
19:40
that back with American beef. American raised American
19:44
slaughtered American beef, not just American labeled beef.
19:48
Yep, Yep. I mean, at the end, at the end
19:51
of the day, I look at it, you know, it's a headline.
19:54
Yeah. I want to get away from
19:56
importing as much as we are and bringing back home.
19:58
Yeah, that's long term plans, just right now.
20:01
We're not at the time of the cycle where that happens, you
20:04
know, we. We have to see the dairies lose
20:06
some money to to call more cows. We have to see beef producers,
20:09
you know, want to retain those heifers and freshen up their
20:12
herd to call more cows or a bad breeding seed and something like
20:15
that. I just want the market to do
20:17
market things like it was without the headlines and
20:20
without all that you look at. I'm sorry, but I'm going to back
20:23
this up a little bit. And right now, if you look at
20:27
the feeder cattle price, yeah, that took the biggest hit on
20:30
Friday. We were down 9 and a quarter of
20:31
the limits, right? So everybody's in freak out mode
20:35
at the end of the day, there's still a lot of empty feed yards.
20:38
So the demand for the feeder cattle isn't going to drop.
20:40
Even if OK, we start, even if we import another billion pounds,
20:44
more of those cattle feeders still want to feed cattle.
20:47
So inevitably, I don't think that is going to drop the price
20:50
of feeder cattle immediately. It does concern me long term if
20:53
this is the trend that we're going to continue to go to other
20:55
countries. Finder feed, yeah, it's going to
20:57
cause major damage. And that has caused major damage
21:00
in the last 30-40 years. We've been selling beef too
21:03
cheap for that long just because we've been bringing in imports.
21:07
They can make it cheaper anywhere else in the world
21:10
versus the US So we bring it in here.
21:13
Yeah, that's going to cause us long term damage.
21:15
But at the end of the day, these headlines, President Trump,
21:18
they're trying to solve the problem here.
21:19
And now they're hopefully, you know, Secretary Rollins supposed
21:23
to come out some big news here later on this week to, you know,
21:27
some sort of package or some sort of plan to revitalize the
21:31
American cattle industry. Hopefully they've got a good
21:35
plan. I don't know what they could do.
21:36
Once again, I hope they just let the market be the market.
21:39
But at the end of the day, you know, getting consumers, getting
21:44
that strong demand out of domestic consumers like we've
21:46
seen and what we have, that's what's going to revitalize the
21:50
American beef cattle industry. It's that strong demand,
21:52
resilient demand. It's not.
21:54
It's just that time of year. It's all timing is just horrible
21:57
in my opinion, because if this was going on in the grilling
21:59
season, it wouldn't even be talked about because everybody's
22:04
going to buy that steak for the weekend no matter what.
22:07
It's just, yeah, timing, all of the above.
22:10
It's yeah. It's just unfortunate.
22:13
Yeah, We just need to let the market do what the markets going
22:16
to do. You know, as producers, we're
22:18
not asking for handouts from the government, we're not asking for
22:21
incentives. We're just asking for the market
22:24
to do what it's supposed to do. And I agree, I don't think it's
22:26
going to affect feeder cattle very much.
22:28
Obviously, placements are not up in the speed lots like we were
22:32
like we've been seeing low placement since the closure of
22:35
the South border. So that's kind of my thoughts
22:37
there. I think as far as addressing the
22:41
direct correlation from the retail counter back to the
22:44
producer, there's not much of 1. And so I think that needs to be
22:47
something that's addressed too at the meat counter.
22:49
The Packers are the ones that are really being profitable from
22:53
the prices that they put out. It's not your producers, so.
22:57
And a caveat off of that as well, when you see these prices,
23:01
when you see these prices get raised, you don't typically see
23:04
them come down. You see them fluctuate a little
23:07
bit. But once you see the price of a
23:09
McDonald's hamburger go up, it's not, they're not going to put it
23:11
back down to a dollar. They're going to start getting
23:13
better profit margins on that and they're going to keep it at
23:16
where it's at. When you start seeing these
23:18
steaks rise, you're not necessarily going to see them
23:21
drop back down to $15 steaks, $10 steaks.
23:24
You're going to see them maybe drop a little bit so that the
23:27
consumer demand continues to meet that.
23:29
But then you're going to see these retailers, these Packers,
23:32
different people within the industry continue to get better
23:35
profit margins and not adjust there.
23:38
And that's another concern that I have is as we continue to see
23:41
this rise in prices at the end consumer, it's not correlating
23:46
back to the producer. We've had a great year.
23:49
Like you said, Samantha, we don't want government handouts.
23:51
We've actually want as little government intervention as
23:53
humanly possible. And everything that we're doing
23:56
for the most part, at least that's where I stand on
23:58
everything. Like let us be cattle producers.
24:01
Let us produce a great product and just leave us alone.
24:04
Please, for the love of God, keep us out of the headlines and
24:07
keep us out of the mouth of the president and just let us be and
24:11
leave us alone. Because again, that correlation
24:15
is just not coming back to the producer.
24:17
And we're not going to see these prices go back down.
24:21
And I think that's what a lot of these consumers are wanting, is
24:23
that dollar hamburger back at McDonald's or that 15 dollars,
24:26
$10 steak again. And that's not going to happen.
24:28
Like prices have raised, they're going to stay there.
24:32
Yeah, that's another thing I think we need to get back to.
24:34
You want to see a regrowth of this US cattle herd buyer beef
24:37
local, know where it comes from, give back to that local
24:41
producer. I mean that's it take take
24:43
necessarily these global Packers out of the equation and keep it
24:46
direct. I mean, I think that's really
24:48
where we need to get back to. You've got more farmer owned
24:53
slaughter plants opening up. We've got a new one that opened
24:56
up this year in Nebraska and North Platte there, you know,
24:59
use them. I think that's really where we
25:01
need to get back to for the regrowth of the American cattle
25:04
herd. Absolutely.
25:05
Dan, do you have any other thoughts?
25:07
No. I mean, you guys did a great
25:09
job. Just like you say, don't talk
25:12
about it. If we could just get to this
25:13
point of the market where we're not talking about beef, that'd
25:16
be glorious. You know, it used to be an old
25:19
rule of thumb down in Chicago when the the cab driver started
25:23
talking about a commodity market, that's when he knew the
25:25
high was getting close to being it.
25:27
So we don't have to have many cab drivers left, maybe Ubers.
25:30
But the problem is it's making every headline.
25:33
If we could get away from that, I think we can move past this
25:37
long term and be completely fine.
25:39
Inevitably, commodity prices do what commodity prices do.
25:42
Adam made a good point the other day when I was talking to him.
25:45
He, you know, a lot of people are wanting this market to stay
25:48
this high and yeah, it'd be great, but name 1 commodity
25:51
market that ever went set new all time record highs and stayed
25:54
there long term. None of them do it.
25:56
Oil hasn't done it, gold hasn't done it.
25:58
I mean corn, every commodity eventually will have a
26:02
correction and producers need to be prepared for that.
26:04
Whether that's because they believe this import headline is
26:08
going to cause it or they just believe long term we're growing
26:11
in the herd this year or whatever that reason is.
26:14
They just need to be prepared for a dip.
26:17
That way these headlines, they can just sleep right through
26:20
them, you know, not even worry about them.
26:22
So that's name of the game is is protect yourself long term.
26:27
Yeah, absolutely. I can agree more with everything
26:30
that you just said there, Dan. I'm ready for us to get out of,
26:33
get out of the headlines for people to stop talking about it.
26:36
And you made a really good point about the like Chicago thing.
26:40
And then also like what other commodity has ever set all time
26:44
record highs and maintained that like it it doesn't happen, you
26:48
don't see it. And back to what you said,
26:50
Samantha, let the market do what the markets going to do.
26:53
Like just leave it alone, guys. Like let's not poke the bear
26:58
here. Let's just let it do what it's
27:00
going to do. Let it correct how it needs to,
27:03
let it adjust where it sees fit. And you know what?
27:06
At the end of the day, the American cattle producer is
27:08
resilient. We have seen this song played
27:12
before. This isn't the first time we've
27:14
been around the block or anything with anything like
27:18
this. We've we've seen corrections in
27:20
the market. We've seen that imports of beef.
27:22
We've seen all time record lows, like we talked to our producers
27:26
that were around for the 60s, seventies, like when we saw some
27:31
pretty insane things happen then too.
27:33
And guess what, we've still got the American cattle producer
27:36
thriving where we're at right now.
27:38
And I want us to continue down that road and what that looks
27:41
like. Do I have the perfect answer?
27:43
No, but I hope that we can continue to foster an
27:46
environment of long term sustainability within our cattle
27:49
industry and within our cattle herd and our rancher
27:52
populations. Yeah.
27:54
Unfortunately, we see the media jump in quite a bit when the
27:56
market is at all time highs and then we don't see that when it's
28:00
at bottom lows. But every time something is at
28:03
the all time high, it's talked about enough to not necessarily
28:07
ruin it. But definitely definitely play
28:08
with it. Yeah, absolutely.
28:10
It definitely does. I would much rather the world
28:13
talk about it when we're seeing all time record lows and then
28:16
they can be like go support your local producer or different
28:20
things like that and not, hey, go bash your local producer for
28:25
all time record highs and the high prices of beef in the
28:27
grocery stores. Like unfortunately guys, that's
28:30
not quite how it works. But thanks for trying.
28:32
We, we appreciate you guys as consumers to keep eating beef.
28:36
Goodbye, Sayonara. So, well, on that note, I think
28:41
that is a great place to round out this podcast.
28:44
Samantha, Dan, thank you for your time.
28:46
Thank you for your candor and your honest thoughts about the
28:49
cattle market and what we're seeing right now and just the
28:52
really great discussion we were able to have to all of our
28:55
listeners out there. Make sure you check out the show
28:57
notes. I have everything linked down
28:59
there down below that you could possibly need, whether that be
29:02
our Cattle USA insurance link where we partner with Samantha
29:05
and Dan to help provide that for you guys or or whether that be
29:09
the Cattle USA Daily newsletter where you can stay up to date on
29:12
news, markets and everything else that you may need.
29:15
We will see you all next time on another episode.
29:17
Have a good one y'all.