Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bear Market Extended!🔥Market At Risk🚨Peace Deal Collapse

Transcript

Bear Market Extended!🔥Market At Risk🚨Peace Deal Collapse · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Is the bear market extended today? Let's break it down.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: How long will it last? Let's get started.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: You've probably heard me mention Uphold before, and there's a
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: reason I keep talking about them. Uphold makes it incredibly
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: easy to bridge a gap between your portfolio and the
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: real world. This has not been done before. Their Uphold
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: debit card is the best example of that. It lets
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: you spend your crypto or your cash anywhere visa is accepted,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: all while earning four percent back in XRP on every purchase.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: It's the easiest way to stack rewards on your daily spending.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Download the Uphold app for more and get started. I
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: think you guys will understand one thing, and that is
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: what's happening in Iran is going to continue to put
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: more pressure overall. If you look at the latest right now,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the Iranian and US talks have now been canceled. Trump
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: demands an unconditional surrender, the typical rhetoric that seems to
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: be coming out of the White House anytime that these
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: deals fall apart, and that seems to be the case
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: where they are continuing to fall apart even now on
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: the very next few hours. So this is a big
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: problem to outline what was signed. This was the MoU
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: that was put together. The details included the Straight of
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Horm Moos would have a secure insurance policy, possibly for
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: free over the next sixty days, but it could involve
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: charges in the future. I RAN also said they got
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: to stay on course. This of course was signed, and
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: then the very next day we had these logistics issues
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: that came in. And if you look at the Jerusalem
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: pro post right here, the announcement comes after hours after
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: i RAN reportedly canceled its own delegations flight signing continued
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: attacks by Israel on Haswlah in Lebanon, and then of
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: course the early Friday morning Axios reported the US talking
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: about this and logistics. So the thing is is that
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: they're claiming both sides, claiming that this is more of
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: a delay, not necessarily cancelation. But the point is that
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: this MoU is now underwater and that is a problem.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So I want to go over to the Straight of
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Horne Moos track or this is the Horne Moves Straight monitor.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: You guys can go to look at this.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: It gives you a little bit of activity on the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: ship transits. This is down to like what twenty percent
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: of the sixty day normal that they're doing right there
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: on the eighteen. And what it also tracks is the
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: inventory basically what countries have available and the timeline that
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: it would take if we continue to see these stoppages
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: in the Strait of Hormuz. Critical right now is Japan,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: who's on an eighty to ninety percent dependency, but their
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: strategic reserves are sitting at about one hundred and seventy five
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: days left. Korea also in that boat of critical, South
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Korea ninety days right now on government reserves. Seventy to
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of all imports right now coming out of
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: the strait. So you can see that this will have
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: a huge effect. It could be a ticking time bomb
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: going into the markets. And this is a factor I
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: think that will continue to push some pressure, not only Crypto,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: but I think in general on the S and P
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: five hundred.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: All right, so you guys can kind of see a
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: little bit about where some.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Of these countries stand. Here's a with Trump talking about
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the US and our own reserves.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Take a look, if we keep bombing, the ships won't
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: be going.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: And you're talking about five hundred and six hundred, seven
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: hundred million dollars a day.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: It's a lot of money.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks.
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: You know, there are reserves all.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: Over the world, and we would really run out and
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: get it, and you want to see bedlam.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: All right, So what he's talking about there is that
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the US oil reserves now are in I think, and
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I think he had admitted it right there in dire straits.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So let's go to a tweet to kind of back
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: up what he's saying there in the clip, because I
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: think he's actually letting the cat out of the bag.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: And this is the data on it.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: We're currently on pace to hit the lowest US oil
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: liquid stockpile in history by the end of July. So
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: you can see the big yellow line right there. The
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: last time we started to see this, this goes all
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: the way back to twenty twenty two. If you look
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: at the chart here, that's the last time we had
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: been intersecting that kind of low. This, of course, is
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the trajectory if this were to continue. So this would
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: be the lowest ever in the history of the United
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: States in terms of a stockpile for energy, which is
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the key lifeblood of the American population, the economy, and
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: of course energy if it continues to go at this
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: rate being affected here in the US much less what's
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: going on around the world, including Europe.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: This is a major global issue, which is.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Why I think you're starting to see the issues starting
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: to attack the market. The question is is does the
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: market actually respond to this? Now, I want to go
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: to another clip that gets into what it's going to
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: take to get this done, because there's still a timeline
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: in which they'd have to clear the strait, be able
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: to get.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: Transit going, all of that.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: So there's most likely a trickle down effect on this
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: just because of supply chain.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 4:49
  Speaker 6: Okay, so let's say they agree to bring the ships back. Yep,
• 4:52
  Speaker 6: then you have to go find the ships, and the
• 4:55
  Speaker 6: ships are all out of place right now, you know,
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: bare minium six to eight weeks just to get the
• 4:59
  Speaker 6: ship back after you've d mined it. Francis said, they're
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: not willing to start min d minding this until they
• 5:04
  Speaker 6: see how it plays out on Friday, and then they
• 5:07
  Speaker 6: got to feel really comfortable that there's not going to
• 5:11
  Speaker 6: be another outbreaking. You got your ship tracked in there.
• 5:13
  Speaker 6: I mean, so that means you got to have some
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: time behind this and be comfortable that it's a sustainable deal.
• 5:18
  Speaker 6: The corporates are telling you, I'm not willing to do this.
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: The foreign governments are telling you they're not going to
• 5:23
  Speaker 6: go mind sweep dis because they don't believe it. So
• 5:25
  Speaker 6: why do US financial markets believe it? If the corporates don't,
• 5:29
  Speaker 6: the other foreign governments don't.
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: Do you think all of this is actually setting up
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: to be a disappointment for stock bonkets?
• 5:35
  Speaker 6: Absolutely?
• 5:37
  Speaker 7: So.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Trump was expecting to get the deal done before the
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: FED meeting, as you kind of see there of the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: impact on that, and now the obvious is starting to
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: take place. Here's a clip of Tom Ley kind of
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: responding to that.
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: Take a look, So seventy five hundred is where we
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: sit right now on the S and P. If you
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: think that yesterday was dubvish and a lot of other
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: people thought it was hawkish, and you came into yesterday
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: thinking that we're going to have some moment where the
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: market was going to have a correction of some magnitude,
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: have you changed that view?
• 6:07
  Speaker 7: Later this year there is going to be an abrupt
• 6:10
  Speaker 7: change of market conditions one that feels very much like
• 6:14
  Speaker 7: a bear market. But we don't want to stand and
• 6:19
  Speaker 7: call a top. I think conditions are still favorable for stocks,
• 6:22
  Speaker 7: you know.
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: But when you say there's going to be a quote
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: abrupt change of market conditions, you can't make a statement
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: like that without telling me why you think that what's
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: going to happen?
• 6:36
  Speaker 7: Well, I think that there are sort let's say, we
• 6:38
  Speaker 7: can see with pretty good visibility three things happening.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 6:41
  Speaker 7: One is that we know markets eventually test, especially if
• 6:46
  Speaker 7: a FED that's redoing the framework with five task forces.
• 6:50
  Speaker 7: I think that's in twenty twenty six. And the third
• 6:53
  Speaker 7: is that because of just the disruptions we experienced so
• 6:56
  Speaker 7: far in the straits of our moves, there is in
• 6:59
  Speaker 7: this fply chain coming shortages, all.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Right, So hit on it there, and that is that
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the supply chain is really the abrupt nature of where
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: this lands, and if things continue at the rate in
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: which they are, that is exactly what could hit the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred, and of course it would
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: hit maybe even more of a cut into the crypto
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: markets and risk markets if you look at Bitcoin versus the.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: S and P.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: This is before and after the US Iranian War, bitcoin
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: is setting right there and just absolutely being plummeted the
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: s and p up considerably in that same period of time,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: nine percent versus minus two. So this I think flows
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: into a problem, and that is when does the bear
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: market actually end? Does it extend beyond twenty twenty six?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Do we see this starting to push into twenty twenty seven.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: We'll look at the miners right now, twenty percent of
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: bitcoin miners are now unprofitable. So you've got JP Morgan
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: saying that bitcoin is traded below its estimated production costs
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: five straight months, putting the major pressure on miners. That
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: means my will sell and or not go into where
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: they're allocating assets to be able to mine bitcoin.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: That itself is a big deal. Look at the ETF
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: runs right here.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Out of the past thirty five days, bitcoin ETFs have
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: only seen three green days, guys. That's the issue that
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: we're facing right now, and I think that's also why
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: you're seeing the market so depressed. I'm surprised that we
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: haven't seen bitcoin actually on a sub sixty four longer
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: where it's holding right now as we are recording this
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: around sixty three, So kind of interesting.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Semiconductors, though, have been on the move.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: You look at stocks in general, they now account for
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: a record eighteen almost nineteen percent of the S and
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: P five hundred's market cap, twenty percent on just the
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: semiconductor stocks.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: Think about that, guys.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: This has more than triple since twenty twenty two. So
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: over the period of the semiconductor which is the socks
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: has rallied five hundred and forty six percent. This looks
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: like a crypto in a bull run. And of course
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: this has been happening all because of what's going on
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: in AI. AI is the one that you have to
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: look at. Look at this though, on the alternative to that,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and that is Bitcoin has now found a new asset,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: asset to correlate with, and that of course is Stretch.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Stretch has now lost its peg. Bitcoin has been going
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: down slowly simple the market expects Sailor to sell Bitcoin
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: to raise cash so that stretchholders can get confident. And
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I think that's the problem right now, that sailor is
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: going to have to make a decision on soon. All right,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: So I want to go to a clip here because
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: this is where Arthur Hayes is talking that AI not
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: master is actually dumping bitcoin right now, take a look.
• 9:41
  Speaker 8: And I think this is part of the broader trend
• 9:45
  Speaker 8: where that AI is doing really, really well and all
• 9:48
  Speaker 8: available risk capital is going to AI trades and not
• 9:52
  Speaker 8: going into crypto. And if you have micro strategy or
• 9:55
  Speaker 8: fears that micro strategy might have to sell some bitcoin
• 9:58
  Speaker 8: for whatever reason on that could add as an additional
• 10:01
  Speaker 8: negative catalyst for the markets. And so I don't think
• 10:04
  Speaker 8: that microstragy is causing bitcoin of fall. This is literally
• 10:07
  Speaker 8: gets liquidity going to everything AI and nothing else.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: All right, So liquidity going to everything AI and nothing else.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: And of course the surrounding industries that kind of correlate
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: with that, semiconductors, you'll see it in robotics, all sorts
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: of innovative technology that is starting to utilize this, you know,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: kind of ecosystem of not only hardware but software, all
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: of that starting to suck out liquidity of the crypto
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: market in general. Precious metals, though, are also being hit.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: You've got one point seven trillion now have been wiped
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: out from precious metals just in the last twenty four hours.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Goal is down four percent, almost five which is one
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: point four to one trillion from its market cap. Silver
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: down nine percent, wiping out three hundred and twenty seven
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: billion from its market cap.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if the if the gold.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Bugs and the silver bugs are in a position have
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: they actually exited or are they continued to hold on
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: this high. Remember this is still up considerably from where
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: it was just twelve months ago. So that market in itself, though,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: will get challenged, especially as we get to a point
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: where stability starts to come back into the market.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Instability.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Typically you would think we would see gold continue and fly.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Maybe people are anticipating that we are eventually going to
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: get out of this war. We're eventually going to see
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit of correction in the market, And the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: real question is does AI continue to accelerate or does
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: it find a pullback. Right now, the dollar hits one
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: oh one. This is the highest since May twenty five.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: US dollar is storming higher as traders brace for more
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: hawkish FED. That is the concern I have right now
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: with more news coming out of what worsh is going
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: to be doing, which is the fact that we don't
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: have as much information of how they're going to analyze data,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: what they're going to do to basically communicate that information
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to the public, including the press, and I think that
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: is the biggest concern right now, which is why people
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: just don't know how Warsh is going to do this.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: The other thing I want to get on is where
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Trump is now that he has heard Kevin Walsh go
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: through his first FOMC meeting.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: Here's him talking about rate hikes.
• 12:14
  Speaker 9: He needs a fish decision.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: They held rates.
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: Today's all right, whatever, and it.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Looks like they might even raise them later this year.
• 12:21
  Speaker 8: It's up there.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: Do you have any go well, what could happen? I mean,
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: it's hard to believe. It's so unusual, but we have
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: a very good guy over there.
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: Now, this is what consumers see four point two percent,
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: including those higher gas prices.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Since the war began, it shot up.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: So this is why Kevin Warsh is so emphatic about prices.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: The members of the FOMC expected rates to come down.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Everybody expected rates to come down. But with the war
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: and the upsurge and inflation, that's not what we're looking
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: at now. This is what they believed last summer, inflation
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: coming down there. This is what they believed in March,
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: inflation coming down there. This is what they now believe
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: one thing that, as you saw Kevin Worsh doesn't want
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: to do is communicate too much.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: These are the statements made.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: By the average average statement life by fed chair and
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Kevin Worsh one hundred and thirty two.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Words might not be the worst thing these days. Fewer words,
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: all right, So there you can kind of see.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: This surprised me a little bit is that Trump might
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: be conceding his position that he's going to cut rates.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So has there been a conversation between Wash and Trump
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: or Bessent to really kind of align that, Hey, we're
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: really going to mix a fit here in terms of inflation,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and we do have to get it under control. Has
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Trump maybe conceded the fact that they have an economy
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: that is running in a little bit of a troubled
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: zone right now, I shouldn't say a little bit. It's
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: a big trouble zone if they don't get inflation under control.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Andre Jeek was out there talking about this because debt
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: is continuing to be the biggest and the question is
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: is can it be inflated away?
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: Take a look a system we created breaks because the
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: debt can and not be inflated away, there will be
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: less people paying taxes, there will be less people borrowing money,
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: and this measuring stick, the dollar, will have nothing left
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: to measure itself against. That is the paradox at the
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: center of everything happening right now. For the first time
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: in modern history, central banks just moved gold above US
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: treasury bonds as their number one reserve asset. Except gold
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: is not at an all time high anymore, but the
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: stock market is so. At the heart of this contradiction
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: is that either AI is so transformative it's enough to
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: justify the trillions of dollars being spent on it, in
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: which case the jobs disappear and the tax base that
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: funds this whole system collapses, or AI is not that transformative,
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: in which case the valuations of these companies are a
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: fantasy and the market corrects. Anyway, there's no version of
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: reality where both things are true at the same time.
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: The debt needs what AI destroys, and right now our
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: retirement account is being used to fund this game.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: All right, So a couple of points there, He kind
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: of has a one or the other situation, AI being
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: transformative and it takes away jobs, AI falling flat on
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: his face, and you know, we're back in a situation
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: where that market corrects and we are no longer dealing
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: with a job loss situation. I think it might be
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a hybrid of that, and that could be very similar
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: to what happened in the dot bomb era. You look
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: at when dot Com, even though it was dot bomb,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: out of the dot bomb era came the birth of
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the Internet, And I think that is the question is
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: there will be a handful of companies that do come
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: out of the AI sphere that will be transformative. We
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: actually get the chance to see those every day. In fact,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: if you're holding a kN iPhone or an Android, you're
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: seeing one every day. If you're using any device out there,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: you're seeing that every day. Now, how does that play
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: out if it doesn't affect jobs all the way, but
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: yet at the same time it is improving productivity and
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: creates more jobs. That would be my argument is that
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: there may be another path to this.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: So there's I think there's three arcs here that you
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: have to look at. And of course the dollar is
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: still going to be an issue.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Productivity could be a factor into this because if productivity
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: does soar, that could change the issue around how debt
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: could be structured or at least reduce somewhat. And I
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: think these are the challenges right now market and nobody
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: knows for sure, and it's a big one. One thing
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you do know for sure is that's affecting everyday life
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: now on electronics.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: Here's Tim Cook Apple.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Tim Cook says price increases are coming due to high
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: cost of memory and storage. Basically, guys, he's kind of
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: proving My point is that what we're seeing now is
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the infrastructure of all this technology leveling up. One look
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: back on the technology that was here pre iPhone. I
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: just want you to kind of step back if you
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: were around then and used a BlackBerry or a Palm
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Traio or any of those kind of devices, look at
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: that technology price and then what happened when the iPhone landed.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Prices accelerated dramatically, and it was because the value of
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: that product accelerated dramatically. And I think that might be
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: where Cook is. I'm not saying that prices should be
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: a good thing because this may put Android back in
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: the driver's seat or maybe even other devices out there
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: that could be coming.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: But I think the point is.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Is that there is a shift change underway right now
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that I don't know that A lot of people can
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: truly get a full grasp on just so much happening today.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: High cost of memory and storage that's the immediate impact,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: sounds like an excuse for company to break in record profits.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: I think you're going to see Apple continuing to move
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: much like what we saw in the Micron stock what
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: you'll most likely see in most of these semiconductors. That
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: is something that I'm keeping a very close eye on
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: Apple could be part of this too, because they.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Could end up being one of the baselines of where
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: all this is happening. However, I want to go to
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: a clip because Apple inflation may become real.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 18:07
  Speaker 9: The company is not planning to fully absorb the surge
• 18:10
  Speaker 9: in memory and storage costs and will pass at least
• 18:13
  Speaker 9: some of that onto consumers. Could be two hundred dollars
• 18:16
  Speaker 9: per pone estimating that Apple may need something closer to
• 18:19
  Speaker 9: a three hundred dollars increase on a future pro model,
• 18:23
  Speaker 9: likely to the iPhone eighteen pro. Cook is explicitly saying
• 18:27
  Speaker 9: that Apple will use pricing power before it simply accepts
• 18:30
  Speaker 9: lower profitability, and the timing looks almost engineered to perfection.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: All right, So what this looks like, guys, is we're
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: going to see inflation across all sorts of areas, including
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: other devices. Those are the ones that I think that
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: will hit Americans where they really feel it is in
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: their devices. Everybody has one. But it also I think
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: will start to roll up into all sorts of companies.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: And this is part in part because of the pressure
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: that the White House put on these companies the first
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: time around, when they were trying to raise prices and
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: they said, hey, no, we're going to do some things
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: to help reduce your ability to grow as a business,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and they kind of bent the knee. Now I think
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: this is a different game. They're going to start putting
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: the pressure on this administration and they're going to pass
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: this on to the American consumer. That is a problem
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: because that in itself may slow the economy down from
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: what has been a red hot economy. And if that
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: in fact, in fact does happen, you will see lower
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: inflation coming because consumers will simply stop spending money and
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: at that point, price control.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Will be in play.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: One thing that I want to take a look at
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: it before we get going here is clarity.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: Are we going to get or not? It looks absolutely dismal.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Right now, if you look at the chance going into
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, we are now almost back at zero
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: day where we started back here in January, setting it
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: around forty four percent.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: Here we are in June, and our.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Great lawmakers have done another service to the American people,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and that is nothing has changed. We are now back
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: at forty five and right now we're not even hearing
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: rumors that there's negotiations going on.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Something is not.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Right, at least the way it looks today. Let me
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: know if you guys have been waiting on clarity at all.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Are you playing the markets right now? Are you setting
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: back waiting for a continued bear market, or are you
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: simply dollar cost averaging?
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Just hit the comments below.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description