Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Dmitry Gorenburg: Russia security expert on Russia's likely response to Ukraine's first long range missile attack

Transcript

Dmitry Gorenburg: Russia security expert on Russia's likely response to Ukraine's first long range missile attack · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So the Ukrainians have taken advantage of American weapons and
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: fired long range missiles inside Russia. Sergei Lavrov, who's the
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Russian foreign minister at the G twenty a few moments ago,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: said we will take this as a new phase in
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the war from the west and we will respond. Dmitri
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Goreenberg is a Russian security expert. He's got expertise on
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the former Soviet Union in Russian military. He was with Harvard,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: now with CNA. He joins us this morning. Welcome to
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: the show, Thanks for having me, thank you for being here.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: How do you think Russia will respond to something like this?
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Well, I don't think there's going to be a very
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: strong response, and for a couple of reasons. One, they've
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: been expecting this for a while, so it's kind of
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: already kind of baked in. They did respond initially to
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: the reports with a large barrage of missiles in the Ukraine. Uh.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: And then the second part is they're waiting for the
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Trump administration. They see that Biden administration is at this
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: point is on its way out, and they think that
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: they can maybe get some more uh you know, changes
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: in policy out of out of Trump. So I don't
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna want to escalate too much in the
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: next you know, in the next couple of months.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: What's your theory on why Biden did it now? Is
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: it the North Koreans or is it because Trump's coming? Well? Both,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I think both. Uh.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: They they want to get as much in place before
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Trump comes in. On the theory that you know, while
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Trump wouldn't potentially wouldn't approve this, uh, he's also potentially
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: not going to reverse the decision if it's already been made. Uh,
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: And they want to you know, set up the Ukrainians
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: for to have as much uh yuh, you know, leeway
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: and and success as possible.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: In terms of potent laring the threshold for the use
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons and signing that symbolically overnight got anything
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: to do with this or is that I mean, obviously
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: it's been well signaled, but should we read much into that.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: I think that I wouldn't be surprised if they were
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: holding in their back pocket and waiting for something like
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: this to to pull it out and say, Okay, here's
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: here's what we're doing. The overall change in nuclear doctrine
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: does have kind of writ larges related to Western supplies
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: of weapons and long range missiles and things like that.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: So because one of the things they're afraid of is
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: you know, long range conventional strikes from the US. So
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: that's part of the change in the doctrine. But it
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't have anything specifically to do with this decision. It's
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: just kind of the larger confrontation having Russia in the West.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: How does this end? In your mind? There's been talk
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: of a DMZ being set up potentially between Russia and Ukraine,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: you know, Ukraine agreeing not to join night for twenty years,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: US weapons at the border manned by NATO soldiers, etc.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Does Putin do a deal like that?
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Well, I don't. You know. All this talk of negotiation
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: right now is predicated on Russia actually being interested in negotiations,
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: and I don't see much evidence of that, to be honest,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: because right now they see themselves as having great deal
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: of success on the battlefield, so they'll be happy to
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: participate in negotiations that result in what is essentially Ukrainian capitulation.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: But the Western sides and even you know, whatever we
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: may happen with the Trump administration of the Europeans and
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: the Ukrainians themselves are not willing to go for that,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: so I think I wouldn't expect a quick end.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: What on earth is his end game for Russia?
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: The well they want to I mean they've they've stated
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: a quite clear they want to have a sphere of
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: influence over the former Soviet territory, and you know Ukraine
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: is the most important part of that for them. So
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: I think that plus showing that the West or NATO
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: and you know NATO alliance is weak and can't stop this,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: that's that's the goal.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks so much for your time to make sure. Gourenberg,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Russian security expert formerly of Harvard, now is CNA for
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: more Familily edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live to news talks.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: It'd be from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio