Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Greg Foss, Jeff Ross & James Lavish Interview - Simply Bitcoin IRL

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Greg Foss, Jeff Ross & James Lavish Interview - Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:13
  All right. All right, everybody.
• 0:17
  Welcome to the first simply Bitcoin interview format, you
• 0:22
  know. So in case you guys are freaking
• 0:24
  out the Regular Show is still staying, we're not changing any
• 0:28
  of that but we're going to start adding different types of
• 0:30
  programming and I know the macro environment is freaking out a
• 0:34
  lot of people so I brought literally the best guest to talk
• 0:38
  about it. So I'm going to introduce one of
• 0:40
  them, one at a time, Greg, how you doing?
• 0:43
  Thanks for joining us. Awesome, Jeff.
• 0:47
  Thank you for making it. Hey Nico.
• 0:49
  Thanks for having me and my pleasure and of course James are
• 0:53
  you guys doing Nico and fellas? What's up, man?
• 0:57
  I'm super excited to have you guys.
• 0:59
  Look, I, you know, I've had this weird experience because like,
• 1:04
  I've had I've told this to you guys individually.
• 1:07
  I skipped the traditional Finance world.
• 1:10
  I went straight to bitcoin but it's interesting because being
• 1:14
  in Bitcoin I had to learn a little bit about how the old
• 1:19
  system works. And one of the things that has
• 1:21
  troubled me the most and actually have some charts pulled
• 1:24
  up is the sticky situation that the FED is in.
• 1:29
  And I don't know if they have have the tools to deal with it,
• 1:33
  let me pull up some windows so you guys could see what it is.
• 1:36
  I'm talking about go. All right, give me one second.
• 1:43
  Okay. all right, so the infamous Hey girl.
• 1:52
  Can you guys see my screen? I can't.
• 1:56
  Mmm very okay. Give me one second.
• 1:59
  Sorry, the first ET Greg, there we go.
• 2:02
  Boom. All right, so the federal funds
• 2:06
  rate, right? So we all know, I think we all
• 2:08
  notice right? You know.
• 2:10
  This is where we are today. Back when the United States had
• 2:14
  this situation in terms of inflation, was, you know, the
• 2:17
  famous, Volker era, the late 1970s, early 1980s.
• 2:22
  But as you can see, they had a lot more.
• 2:24
  You know, they A lot more wiggle room.
• 2:26
  And I've honestly been going back and forth on simply
• 2:29
  Bitcoin. I don't know how they're going
• 2:32
  to deal with this. Right?
• 2:33
  Of course, if you talk to bitcoiners about this or like,
• 2:35
  oh, this is the beginning of hyperinflation, we all remember
• 2:38
  that tweet by Jack Dorsey, right?
• 2:40
  Hyperinflation is coming, you know?
• 2:42
  And then the the mainstream media exploding about it, you
• 2:45
  know, trying to set a counter-narrative.
• 2:47
  So I'm going to pass it on to Greg Greg is the Fed really in a
• 2:52
  tough spot. Okay guys, welcome, you know who
• 3:01
  when you go back to 1982, you have to realize it was an
• 3:05
  entirely different world to begin with most importantly.
• 3:10
  Paul volcker was able to take on inflation because the the total
• 3:16
  debt load of the United States was markedly different.
• 3:20
  Okay. So yes, the FED is in a tough
• 3:24
  spot purely because the Upload is so much larger as a
• 3:29
  percentage of gross domestic product in today's numbers than
• 3:35
  it was back in 1982 era. So the ability for the FED to
• 3:42
  raise rates is restricted on the upside by the interest expense,
• 3:48
  that's going to be charged on the outstanding debt.
• 3:51
  And when the debt rules over to the extent that interest It's
• 3:56
  may pass the budget for the military this year.
• 4:01
  That's about 800 billion dollars.
• 4:04
  The FED only takes in about 4 trillion dollars of revenues
• 4:08
  each year. And two point Six Trillion is
• 4:13
  spent on entitlements. 800 billion or point eight trillion
• 4:21
  is spent on military. Spending can see that the
• 4:25
  difference which 400 billion if 700 billion or 800 billion of it
• 4:32
  is interest expense. You see that e debt spiral
• 4:36
  churches grows organically because of The amount of debt
• 4:42
  and that's it. Three percent.
• 4:45
  Imagine if they tried to fight inflation, Which in the Volare
• 4:50
  era was eight and a half percent CI.
• 4:54
  He would have raised rates right around 12 percent.
• 4:58
  So the math doesn't The a are fed is absolutely between a rock
• 5:07
  and a hard place and uncertain, whether they understand the
• 5:12
  mathematics of it, but really didn't be that difficult.
• 5:18
  If you want to go into a full-fledged a death spiral,
• 5:22
  raise rates. Watch the global economy.
• 5:26
  Go into a recession / depression.
• 5:31
  Watch tax revenues decrease this because your economy is falling
• 5:36
  your Axe Face. And bring up.
• 5:40
  So you know why I would say it's game over, I don't know other
• 5:45
  any other way of describing it except as Luke Roman points, out
• 5:49
  called Financial repression and we can get into that but very
• 5:53
  simply. That is where they invoke a
• 5:55
  measure of yield curve control. They artificially, hold rates at
• 6:00
  a low level while hoping that inflation will float.
• 6:04
  The global disease me the Global Tax face, higher. so, that the
• 6:11
  Equation works. And the equation doesn't work
• 6:15
  unless you have an error term and the only error term is
• 6:18
  printing money. So Fiat the basement is 100%
• 6:22
  certain in all outcomes. So I want to point this out.
• 6:27
  If there's one thing to take away from this people that are
• 6:31
  listening, it's not about CPI inflation, Bitcoin does not
• 6:36
  hedge CPI inflation. Specifically it has Is monetary
• 6:43
  inflation M2 M1? M 0, don't confuse CPAP machine,
• 6:51
  which is a lagging indicator. Either result of monetary
• 6:55
  inflation. Just understand it Fiat.
• 6:58
  The basement is 100% almost and get better old something that's
• 7:05
  where's value in a non Fiat based, so.
• 7:09
  Yeah, the FED is should they don't need Or lawyers they need
• 7:12
  more mathematicians over to you guys.
• 7:15
  Amen. So it Greg to me it sounds like
• 7:18
  you're describing. The end of Fiat.
• 7:20
  Is that correct to say that? Naughty, and it's game on.
• 7:27
  It's, you know, it's more of the same until the world decides
• 7:31
  that it's game over. And I don't know when that'll
• 7:34
  happen and it happens in other countries quicker.
• 7:39
  Foss has the worst interconnect internet connection ever.
• 7:42
  He was on bitcoin magazine regimen couldn't get a decent.
• 7:45
  Okay, fuck you guys. All right.
• 7:47
  Look at the end of the day, I'm doing my best.
• 7:50
  I have a bad internet connection.
• 7:53
  I'll go on mute and and just leave it to that.
• 7:58
  They need more mathematicians. I'll go on mute.
• 8:01
  So I don't destroy this live stream night will pass it back
• 8:07
  to you Greg in a bit, so Jeff, and then we'll pass it on to
• 8:10
  James G. You agree with Greg, it.
• 8:13
  What is the situation of? And again I just want to
• 8:15
  emphasize guys, I don't have the experience.
• 8:19
  Then these gentlemen here I'm looking at it from the
• 8:22
  bitcoiners perspective. And I don't think it just takes
• 8:25
  common sense to be. Hmm.
• 8:27
  How are they going to get out of this?
• 8:28
  Now, one of the talking points that they've been using Jeff and
• 8:31
  I'll pass it on to you. Is that the core inflation,
• 8:35
  right? Has actually been decreasing
• 8:37
  over the last three months. Is that potentially a sign that
• 8:41
  we've turned the corner? Well, first of all, thanks for
• 8:45
  having me on. It's really fun to be here with
• 8:47
  all you guys. You guys got to know about Faust
• 8:50
  so he sold all of his chairs to buy Bitcoin when it went Subs.
• 8:53
  30,000, and then when it hit 20,000, he actually sold his
• 8:56
  broadband internet and and went back to dial up to save some
• 9:00
  money. And so he could buy more
• 9:01
  Bitcoin. So don't be too hard on them and
• 9:04
  then Nico, man, I love it that you don't have a traditional
• 9:07
  Finance education because all traditional Finance roads lead
• 9:10
  to bitcoin. So you're just sort of bypassing
• 9:12
  it and we're doing all this. Long Arc circuitous Arc and
• 9:15
  we're trying to pull people into Bitcoin but you just went
• 9:18
  straight there. So you're the smart one, among
• 9:19
  the three of us. How do I feel about, like so,
• 9:24
  what is inflation doing? I definitely think so inflation
• 9:27
  blows, right? It's very high cost of goods is
• 9:29
  high. I get passionate about this
• 9:31
  because what does that mean? It means that quality of life
• 9:35
  for people who live on the margin, basically, the most
• 9:38
  unfortunate among us, financially are really suffering
• 9:42
  right now. Like it was hard for them.
• 9:43
  To pay for groceries. Six months ago, it's basically
• 9:46
  impossible for them to pay for groceries and gas right now.
• 9:49
  They're taking their second job. Some of them are taking their
• 9:51
  third job. Life sucks right now, and I
• 9:54
  think it's going to get kind of a little bit worse before it
• 9:56
  gets better. And then on top of that, we got
• 9:58
  the FED destroying demand to get the supply demand equations Back
• 10:03
  in Balance and to hopefully bring prices down.
• 10:05
  I think they will succeed. By the way.
• 10:07
  The downside is the cost of that, that means these same
• 10:09
  people who are really struggling right now are going to get fired
• 10:12
  from some other jobs because because What happens when you,
• 10:14
  when you destroy demand. So it has a, there are so many
• 10:19
  different ways we can go on this and I'm glad we have some time
• 10:21
  to talk about all these different things.
• 10:23
  It's gonna get ugly. I think the macro still looks
• 10:26
  ugly, I think. Anytime you see the FED doing a
• 10:28
  rate hike cycle into a macro economic slowdown, that's just a
• 10:32
  recipe for disaster, basically, stocks, I still think have
• 10:36
  further to fall risk assets in general, have further to fall,
• 10:39
  the real estate market especially, you know, the
• 10:42
  residential real estate market. Market is definitely already
• 10:45
  rolling over. I think that's unequivocal at
• 10:47
  this point. So the FED is getting what they
• 10:49
  want, it's very effective for the FED to bring down high
• 10:54
  prices bring down inflation by destroying the man by causing a
• 10:58
  recession. This recession will absolutely
• 11:00
  bring prices down, but it's going to be at Great cost.
• 11:03
  So I think that we are at or near a peak right now, I will be
• 11:06
  the first to admit, I was wrong. I thought we were going to Peak
• 11:09
  and inflation back in the first quarter.
• 11:11
  And then we may, we may start to see some This inflation very
• 11:15
  mild but some disinflation starting.
• 11:17
  As early as the second quarter, I was wrong.
• 11:19
  I own that and I did not expect it to be this sticky, but it is,
• 11:24
  it's a problem. So, you know, to Greg's Point
• 11:26
  earlier the FED is stuck between a rock and a hard place right
• 11:29
  now because they don't want to be raising rates, they know
• 11:32
  they're going to break the system.
• 11:33
  They know the softest Landing is just a joke.
• 11:37
  They're going to put us in a hard recession possibly worse
• 11:41
  and by worse I mean a depression and Is going to get ugly, so
• 11:44
  they're going to achieve their goals and it's going to be at
• 11:47
  great, great personal cost to Americans and basically all
• 11:50
  people in the Western World, I'll hand it over to James.
• 11:53
  So James, I'm gonna ask you, I think I'm going to ask you the
• 11:57
  question that I asked to Jeff. They're talking point, right?
• 12:01
  And I ended by the way, I agree with you Greg and I agree with
• 12:04
  you Jeff. Is that core inflation?
• 12:06
  The last three months has actually gone down.
• 12:08
  Is that just another, you know, inflation is transitory talking
• 12:12
  point, you know? They manipulating that data.
• 12:15
  How do you feel about that James?
• 12:17
  Yeah, I mean, has it. First of all thank you for
• 12:20
  having me on. It's great to be online with
• 12:23
  Jeff and Greg and these guys are they are whip smart, man.
• 12:28
  So listen to what they have to say.
• 12:30
  They have massive amounts of experience in invest in these
• 12:32
  markets and this is not an easy time.
• 12:36
  So what are they doing? The fed the FED to making it
• 12:39
  difficult, you know, or they've made it difficult.
• 12:42
  They should have raised rates way.
• 12:43
  Way back when you know back in the end of 2021 or in the middle
• 12:47
  of 2021, they waited too long and inflation got out of hand.
• 12:53
  It is out of hand. The problem is like Jeff was
• 12:57
  alluding to the demand is not the issue, it's a supply-side
• 13:02
  and energy is such a large part of that equation that we're
• 13:05
  talking about, does it matter core inflation, you know, versus
• 13:09
  all the CPI does it really matter?
• 13:11
  Like Jeff just said people are hurting.
• 13:13
  And like Greg is saying they're the FED needs to, they need to
• 13:18
  clamp down on inflation but they have to do it in a way that they
• 13:23
  don't destroy the markets. You know, when you dry when you
• 13:26
  when you kill the bond market you you put yourself in a
• 13:30
  situation where your currency is at risk.
• 13:33
  And so with the debt load that's out there and with inflation
• 13:39
  where it's at and where the interest rates are at, what's
• 13:41
  the FED? What can the FED do?
• 13:43
  So, you're seeing that they're raising rates and it hits the
• 13:47
  stock market. Why is it do that?
• 13:49
  Well, the cost of financing goes up for these companies.
• 13:53
  Companies margins go down. That puts in margin pressure and
• 13:57
  then the multiples of those stocks get compressed.
• 14:01
  And so the stock market goes internally because the United
• 14:05
  States is so intimately tied to the financial markets, the
• 14:09
  economy is so intimately tied to the financial Market, it pulls
• 14:13
  down. The economy and an overall GDP.
• 14:16
  So but also like Jeff was saying, look interest rates.
• 14:20
  Go up that that raises the long Bond and the mortgages that
• 14:26
  people are paying. And if you're on a, if you're
• 14:28
  not on a fixed mortgage, well, then your mortgage payments just
• 14:32
  one up by almost 100 percent from last year, right?
• 14:37
  And if you're, if you're on a fixed mortgage and you don't
• 14:40
  have a house or you, if you want to fix more you can you don't
• 14:43
  have A house. Well, you can only afford pretty
• 14:46
  much half of what you could afford just last year because of
• 14:50
  that rate, the way the interest rates work, the monthly payment
• 14:53
  will be twice as much for the same house.
• 14:55
  So houses have to fall by almost 50% or over 50% at this point in
• 15:00
  order to come back in line for the same monthly payment.
• 15:03
  So that's demand Destruction for housing.
• 15:05
  So you've got people feel like they have less wealth.
• 15:08
  They definitely have less wealth because of the stock market
• 15:11
  going down 401ks. IRAs, there's a lot of, there's
• 15:16
  a lot of wealthy night States, it's tied to that and so what
• 15:20
  can the FED do? Well they're going to raise
• 15:22
  rates, I think as fast as they can, just as quickly as they can
• 15:26
  because they know that they're working in a rears they know
• 15:29
  that their reactionary. They've said it before the
• 15:31
  admitted to Powell said it on camera two meetings ago we are
• 15:35
  just react to the data and the data is imperfect.
• 15:39
  And so what they're looking at is old, They know that and
• 15:44
  they're using that to give them Runway to raise these rates, as
• 15:48
  quickly as the can before, the market absolutely falls apart.
• 15:51
  What do they do? They signal it?
• 15:53
  You hear every single fed Governor out there talking and
• 15:56
  chirping every single day. And it's all signaling to let
• 16:00
  the market know what they're going to do because what the
• 16:03
  market hates is uncertainty. So and that's that's really
• 16:07
  important and both the bond and stock markets, really hate
• 16:10
  uncertainty and they can talk Up, they can move rates as
• 16:14
  quickly as they can, that will give them the runway to decrease
• 16:17
  rates again quickly if they need to.
• 16:20
  Now I think that what they're going to do is they're going to
• 16:22
  they're going to raise rates another one or two times and
• 16:26
  then they're going to pause there going to step back before
• 16:29
  the election in November, they're going to stop.
• 16:31
  Say we've got it under control, everything's good, the markets,
• 16:35
  great, everybody's and everything is in order, the
• 16:37
  United States is in good shape. So elect our Representatives
• 16:40
  that we were either T'adore reappointed by so.
• 16:45
  And then if you look at, if you look out at the, the Euro
• 16:49
  dollars, it's suggesting that we are last raises in December at
• 16:56
  the absolute latest. So actually, I haven't looked in
• 16:59
  today, but that's what it looked like yesterday the day before.
• 17:01
  So, you know, it sounds like the rates are going to roll over
• 17:05
  again next year and we're going to have to go into a
• 17:08
  quantitative easing. So so eat all you guys are
• 17:14
  telling me, you know, and the thing, the central theme that
• 17:19
  keeps coming into my head is It sounds like the u.s. is a
• 17:23
  centrally planned economy. Perhaps I didn't say the way,
• 17:27
  you know perfectly but the fact that an institution can crash
• 17:33
  prices and not to mention pump prices, right?
• 17:35
  When they're just injecting, all that liquidity, would, I know
• 17:40
  again, I didn't come from it. From the financial world, I came
• 17:43
  from it, from the Bitcoin world, and from my perspective, that's
• 17:47
  what it looks like. So Greg is very passionate.
• 17:51
  I'm going to pass it on to Greg first and then we'll make
• 17:54
  another round. There's no question that the
• 18:02
  central bank is centrally planned that being said, we need
• 18:11
  to understand that. It is run by committee and by
• 18:18
  and large running anything by committee is a difficult task,
• 18:22
  okay? I am not a fan of central
• 18:28
  planning. I'm certainly not a plant a fan
• 18:31
  of having a lawyer in a central planning chair.
• 18:36
  And I want to sort of push back a little bit on what James said
• 18:40
  and I think the narrative in the market right now, I think the
• 18:45
  FED is going to raise one more time and is going to pause
• 18:50
  because I think there's too much pressure in the credit markets
• 18:53
  for them to continue to raise and people falsely, look at the
• 18:58
  euro dollar market, it and assume that's anything.
• 19:03
  Then I betting window because it's a short-term Betting
• 19:06
  window, where the odds trait change like it, a horse track.
• 19:10
  You have to look at the longer term Trends and things like
• 19:14
  credit and yield markets credit spreads on banks.
• 19:21
  For example, if you notice the CBS Credit Suisse first Boston,
• 19:26
  the credit, default swap spreads on CDs.
• 19:28
  First Boston, what's your bank? Our basic painting.
• 19:36
  Worse credit conditions than covid.
• 19:40
  In fact, the worst particular iteration can in credit
• 19:44
  conditions since the great financial crisis I've found car
• 19:50
  into a wall if you want and bring the global economy into a
• 19:55
  depression raise, one more time. In a there's a there's an old
• 20:00
  adage on Wall Street. Three hikes and a stumble.
• 20:04
  Well this is going to be the third High 80.
• 20:10
  And the market is fake, basically, whether it's a rally.
• 20:16
  Because short covering, or it's a rally because they are called
• 20:21
  the feds Bluff. This is a most important
• 20:25
  decision, the whole content of the FED narrative, 75 basis
• 20:32
  points or 100 basis points. That doesn't matter what matters
• 20:36
  is for guidance because right now, the credit markets Are in
• 20:44
  trouble. I'm going to sign off here.
• 20:46
  I've had enough of this so I Greg news new software and all
• 20:49
  that shit. Well, on this on restream isn't
• 20:53
  work with my computer that well, so I'll leave it to the other
• 20:56
  two guys. You're in very good hands with
• 20:58
  these other two gels just say finally, look at credit Equity
• 21:04
  guys are the it's in the room. Nine times out of equity, guys,
• 21:10
  are the idiots in the room. Look.
• 21:15
  This thing's over in credit markets.
• 21:17
  Single all clear. So thanks for having me.
• 21:21
  Sorry about my internet connection, I'll do better next
• 21:24
  time. Greg, thanks so much for joining
• 21:27
  us. Take care.
• 21:29
  Really bummed you're leaving. Greg hope you stay man.
• 21:32
  All right, gentlemen, so got more questions for you guys.
• 21:36
  This is a very interesting question is a deflationary world
• 21:41
  possible. I'll pass it on to James and
• 21:43
  then we'll, we'll go with Jeff is it if you talk to Jeff Booth?
• 21:47
  It's not just possible. It's probable and you know I
• 21:51
  didn't really understand it before I talk to him and in that
• 21:56
  concept of a deflationary world, I mean If you look around us, we
• 22:00
  should be in deflationary world, right?
• 22:03
  Every everything that we all of our energy in manufacturing in
• 22:09
  creation is is being enhanced by software and hardware and
• 22:14
  technology. And you know, we should be
• 22:20
  benefiting from the fact that each increment of work that we
• 22:25
  put out gives us more output. From that that work and we're
• 22:31
  not. And it's a simple reason, it's
• 22:34
  because of, you know, manipulation of money.
• 22:36
  If we didn't have manipulation of money and all the debt that's
• 22:39
  created on top of it, then we wouldn't be in this position of
• 22:43
  everything inflating around us, it's not natural inflation's,
• 22:46
  actually, not natural. I mean, think about, you know,
• 22:49
  farming a field with your hands versus farming it with a till
• 22:54
  and where you have an ox, you know, that's a completely
• 22:56
  different, you know, imp It to get a different output and now
• 23:01
  take that and put it with Intel chat chips and with airplanes.
• 23:07
  And you know with I mean we can do more with our little phones
• 23:11
  and we could have in in year I mean this has more technology in
• 23:16
  it then sending somebody to the Moon back in 1969, right.
• 23:20
  So think about that. We should be benefiting from all
• 23:24
  of that power that's in our hands.
• 23:27
  So but we're Not, it's not. So in my mind it's not just
• 23:32
  possible. If you have the right currency,
• 23:36
  if you have the right money then it's probable and I'll hand it
• 23:40
  over to Jeff because I know that he can Riff on that.
• 23:43
  But that's the point. That's the point of Bitcoin
• 23:46
  right there Jeff before you hit that.
• 23:48
  Right? I'm going to add a little spice
• 23:50
  on top, right? So I think it would benefit the
• 23:55
  people but who has the most to lose in a deflationary.
• 23:58
  Whoa World definitely government's right so Are they
• 24:05
  are they going to allow this to happen or maybe do you agree
• 24:09
  with the theory from the sovereign individual?
• 24:12
  Where you know, they don't have a choice.
• 24:14
  It's just it's just the the internet is going to enable the
• 24:18
  individual to have so much freedom because of, you know,
• 24:22
  eventually he's able to not only take his wealth with him.
• 24:25
  He could take his physical self with him and I think that before
• 24:29
  Bitcoin, that was absolutely impossible.
• 24:31
  So what is your perspective on that?
• 24:33
  How do you think governments? Are going to respond to and are
• 24:36
  they going to allow a deflationary world?
• 24:38
  Because I think that's the question that I hear the most as
• 24:41
  a Bitcoin. ER you know after you tell them
• 24:43
  and someone believes like okay is a great system, but
• 24:46
  governments are going to ban it. So when I pass it on to you
• 24:49
  Jeff, what do you think? Yeah well I just agree with what
• 24:52
  you are. Adding the little sprinkle of
• 24:53
  spice on top and that's what I was going to say is that
• 24:56
  government can't stop this, right?
• 24:57
  This was literally built as a workaround in.
• 25:00
  The internet is Unstoppable, and Bitcoin is Unstoppable.
• 25:03
  And so You don't just stop it even if you're a very powerful
• 25:07
  government, even if you have, you know, super nefarious plans
• 25:10
  and you have the world's most powerful military, you don't
• 25:11
  simply stop Bitcoin and you don't stop the internet.
• 25:14
  So so this is a complete work around and I think you know, to
• 25:18
  James Point talking about Jeff Booth and the whole deflationary
• 25:20
  pressures of Technology. We're not seeing the benefits of
• 25:25
  those right now because we live in this system, this Fiat
• 25:28
  system. That is literally built on the
• 25:31
  Bedrock of the Fiat system is inflation is Terry debasement
• 25:35
  and so where they're just colliding and clashing with each
• 25:39
  other all the time. So I think who is the biggest
• 25:42
  loser? It's super easy, it's the Fiat
• 25:44
  system and it's the proponents of the Fiat system and the
• 25:46
  creators of the Fiat system, they're going to hate it, it's
• 25:49
  going to be literally. It's going to be like a World
• 25:52
  War for them. Like their whole lives are going
• 25:53
  to be turned upside down. Traditional banking systems are
• 25:56
  going to be turned upside down the whole Wall Street, the whole
• 25:58
  world of Finance. The whole credit based system is
• 26:00
  going to be literally flipped on its head.
• 26:02
  They're not going to want it to happen.
• 26:04
  So, Oh, there's either going to be the smart people who figure
• 26:07
  it out and and get on board, you know, like me and James and
• 26:10
  Foss. I'm sorry.
• 26:11
  He left by the way, but those of us who are in traditional
• 26:14
  finance and said, you know what, there's actually something to
• 26:16
  this Bitcoin and I think that it's going to win in the end.
• 26:19
  So maybe we should jump onto this bandwagon.
• 26:22
  There's going to be people who fight it to the end.
• 26:24
  And I've been saying this for a while like being the, you know,
• 26:26
  the people who are most benefiting from the traditional
• 26:30
  Fiat system, the Warren Buffett's and Charlie munger's
• 26:32
  and everybody and their ilk The investment bankers you know the
• 26:36
  Goldman Sachs people for the most part they're not going to
• 26:39
  like it. The government officials
• 26:41
  obviously State assists people who just believe in you know the
• 26:44
  United States and and you know the the command control center
• 26:48
  of the world and that we need this dollar hegemony to continue
• 26:52
  and persist indefinitely. Even though it won't it's
• 26:55
  obviously weakening already. So there are a few factions that
• 26:58
  are going to hold out and who are going to make life difficult
• 27:01
  for bitcoiners. But Bitcoin is just inevitable.
• 27:04
  Evil. It just is and so I came to that
• 27:06
  conclusion about three years ago and I thought that was when I
• 27:09
  first relax like I quit caring about is the government going to
• 27:12
  shut it down. What's going to happen if you
• 27:14
  know how terrible is it going to be?
• 27:15
  I don't really know and I don't really care.
• 27:17
  All I know is it's inevitable and we're going to get there
• 27:19
  eventually. And so I just think you might as
• 27:22
  well join the winning team while you can, and while you have it
• 27:24
  while it's cheap, and then you'll benefit and you just
• 27:27
  enjoy the ride on the way up. Absolutely, I've actually
• 27:30
  tweeted that out before I said, what worries me is not.
• 27:34
  Bitcoin winning what worries me is the transition and I think
• 27:38
  that's really what keeps me up at night.
• 27:39
  Anyways. Going to spice it up a little
• 27:41
  bit past it to James. So this just came out, Tesla
• 27:45
  earnings meet Hugh to expectations.
• 27:48
  They sold 75 percent of their Bitcoin.
• 27:53
  James did the deal on bail on the honey badger what's going on
• 27:57
  there? I know I just saw that.
• 28:00
  I mean, are you surprised? I mean truly and he's been, he's
• 28:05
  been kind of - Bitcoin since what?
• 28:10
  February, March of twenty Twenty-One, so doesn't surprise
• 28:15
  me at all. I don't know, maybe he may be
• 28:18
  Tesla needed money. They needed that to to
• 28:23
  manipulate. They needed to, to massage their
• 28:29
  balance sheet for the earnings. I have no idea.
• 28:31
  I don't know how their bounce, Structured because I haven't
• 28:34
  ever invested in Tesla and I don't, I haven't looked at it
• 28:37
  but, you know, it doesn't surprise me one bit and it
• 28:42
  doesn't freak me out either. I mean that's just it's what it
• 28:45
  is. So so Jeff data did Ilan
• 28:51
  abandoned us. Well, it's funny that we're
• 28:54
  talking about this now because this is exactly what those of us
• 28:57
  who spent a lot of time, talking about this way, back last year
• 29:01
  year and a half ago, we're Going about and what would happen and
• 29:04
  what I was saying, you know, at the when he first came on board,
• 29:06
  right? And we saw that big eel on pump
• 29:09
  in Bitcoin, back in early, twenty Twenty-One people were
• 29:13
  excited. I lost my enthusiasm for it as
• 29:16
  soon as I heard him talking about it.
• 29:17
  And then the more he talked about it, the less enthused I
• 29:19
  got about him and I'm like, this guy does not understand what
• 29:22
  he's holding right now. He's one of those guys who's
• 29:24
  literally bringing back. All the arguments of the block
• 29:26
  size Wars back in the 2017, 2018 time, Barry.
• 29:29
  He's trying to fix Bitcoin is talking about how, man, About
• 29:33
  Doge. What about you know what about
• 29:34
  these other dog coins? That that they function so well
• 29:37
  they're just great. Great medium of exchange.
• 29:39
  Has he just didn't understand what he was holding.
• 29:41
  And so what I was telling people back then I said be careful what
• 29:44
  you wish for because Elon does not understand Bitcoin in the
• 29:47
  moment we hit a tough patch. The moment we hit a hard
• 29:50
  recession, where the choice is between saving Tesla making
• 29:54
  Tesla look good or selling his Bitcoin he's going to sell his
• 29:57
  Bitcoin in a heartbeat. And so that's where we are
• 29:59
  today. I'm not surprised, I tweeted out
• 30:01
  that, you know, he made me sad. 25%.
• 30:03
  Happy by selling 75% of Tesla's, a Bitcoin, make me 100% happy
• 30:07
  Elon, just just pull the plug, get rid of your Bitcoin, give it
• 30:10
  to us and then you can buy back later when it's back above, 100
• 30:13
  gear, whatever it is. So here come around eventually
• 30:16
  but he you know, it one point I want to bring up is that Bitcoin
• 30:20
  wasn't necessarily made at least at this point for people like
• 30:24
  Elon it's not meant for the very wealthiest in the world to
• 30:27
  speculate and play with like the little playground thing to earn
• 30:30
  another billion dollars. This is Aunt for the plebs,
• 30:33
  right? This is meant to bring social
• 30:35
  justice to preserve purchasing power over time and space for
• 30:39
  people all over the world who need it.
• 30:42
  So you know, people in countries like turkey and Argentina and
• 30:46
  you know, throughout Africa Central, South America, people
• 30:50
  who are suffering because their governments are just a bunch of
• 30:53
  d-bags making stupid decisions debasing, their currency, yet on
• 30:56
  the backs of their citizens, that's what Bitcoin is made for.
• 31:00
  And so this preservation of purchase in power is the reason
• 31:04
  one of the main reasons why we love Bitcoin and why people like
• 31:07
  Elon are never are he may not ever understand it.
• 31:10
  Honestly, when you're, when you're so wealthy and you don't
• 31:13
  even need to possibly be concerned about loss of
• 31:16
  purchasing power, you just don't really care about stuff like
• 31:18
  this, but when your life depends on it, you care very much about
• 31:21
  it. So, I kind of say Good, Riddance
• 31:23
  will see him in a few years. I'm sure he'll come back in and
• 31:25
  we'll welcome them with him a big hug when he comes back.
• 31:29
  Oh man. Yeah, I think it's funny because
• 31:32
  The price of tuition spares, no one.
• 31:35
  And just because, you know, and this is what I love about
• 31:38
  Bitcoin, right? It doesn't matter whether you're
• 31:40
  a billionaire or nation-state. You got to earn your stripes.
• 31:43
  Something that Michael sailor is experiencing right now.
• 31:46
  So Michael Sailors, stock took a huge hit because of that bat.
• 31:51
  And then if you look at the, you know, the I don't call the
• 31:54
  mainstream media anymore because they're not the corporate media
• 31:57
  narrative is like this guy's in trouble.
• 31:59
  Again, I don't know enough about public companies which Is going,
• 32:02
  but I'm going to ask James. Is he in danger of?
• 32:06
  Let's say Bitcoin keeps going down.
• 32:08
  Right? Is he in danger?
• 32:09
  Because it's a public company of losing control of his company.
• 32:14
  I mean, the only, if he gets a margin call you know, up until
• 32:18
  the point he still well within this video Sherry Duty, I mean,
• 32:22
  he's made it extremely clear. What he's doing, he's not hiding
• 32:26
  anything. If you buy if you buy any of
• 32:31
  those shares, Then you know what you want.
• 32:35
  It's not like he's just adding to the treasury.
• 32:39
  He's adding Bitcoins to the treasury without telling anybody
• 32:42
  so and he's financing these purchases, you know, he's got
• 32:47
  convertible debt, that's financed with Fiat for Bitcoin,
• 32:51
  you know. So no, I don't think he's
• 32:55
  endangered think. I think the only time that he
• 32:58
  would be in danger is is if if microstrategy has to Outselling
• 33:03
  Bitcoin in order to meet margin calls and and then only if it
• 33:09
  becomes a problem and they can't meet a margin call, then that's,
• 33:14
  that's when the board would have to do something but up until
• 33:17
  that point there's there's no reason for them to act against
• 33:21
  him and in fact if they did it would be so the so tumultuous
• 33:26
  for the company that would be a poor decision for the board to
• 33:30
  oust him. So no, And you know, they mean
• 33:34
  one thing that could happen which I don't see happening but
• 33:36
  it could is you could have an activist by up a massive block
• 33:41
  of shares and then force a special vote in order to bring
• 33:47
  up the conversation. But again I don't I don't see
• 33:51
  that happening right now and I don't, I don't think he's in
• 33:54
  trouble. I think that he's position
• 33:56
  positioned himself to be to have another huge Drop in Bitcoin.
• 34:03
  It's got to go down over 60%, I think before the conversation,
• 34:07
  even begins again. So, yeah, I think, I think that
• 34:12
  that's as a public company. The problem comes, when you're
• 34:16
  not being forthright, when you're hiding things, when you
• 34:19
  have things off, balance sheet, when you have special vehicles,
• 34:22
  you have special, you have assets that are that are not
• 34:25
  shown clearly on your balance sheet or disclosed clearly in
• 34:30
  public filings. But He's disclosed everything.
• 34:34
  He's been extraordinarily upfront about it and if you're
• 34:37
  surprised at what you own, then that's your fault, it's
• 34:42
  certainly not his due to lack of communication.
• 34:46
  Gotcha? Okay.
• 34:47
  That's really good to know. So you said activists in there
• 34:51
  and then that you know that spurred a question in my head
• 34:53
  which I'm going to pass on to Jeff, right?
• 34:55
  What I've seen you know and of course I have to do this for the
• 34:58
  Regular Show simply Bitcoin what I've seen over the last Year is
• 35:03
  this? I would even call insincere.
• 35:06
  I think it's on purpose at this point, but this combined attack
• 35:11
  on Bitcoins proof of work, right?
• 35:13
  We saw an attempted banned in Europe, you saw an attempted
• 35:17
  band in Norway. You have a band that looks like
• 35:20
  it's going to go through in New York state, right?
• 35:23
  So there's a global effort, I'll also the Senate held a meeting
• 35:27
  called cleaning up cryptocurrency.
• 35:29
  Not a meeting, a committee better set.
• 35:32
  What's going on there, Jeff. So, you know, the Bitcoin or and
• 35:35
  me that's, you know, play a paranoid and like, oh, we're
• 35:38
  under attack the reason I believe.
• 35:41
  It's malicious, right? Is in the example of Norway,
• 35:45
  100% of the renewable energy, 100% of Bitcoin miners in Norway
• 35:50
  are powered by renewable energies but certain political
• 35:55
  parties in Norway, still tried to ban Bitcoin mining.
• 36:00
  So what is going on there? We know by the Report that was
• 36:03
  released today, for example, or it was yesterday that that 60%
• 36:11
  of Bitcoin mining is according to that report is powered by
• 36:14
  renewable energy. So my belief is that, it's a
• 36:18
  malicious attack. They know exactly what they're
• 36:20
  doing, but they're hoping that they accumulate the political
• 36:24
  willpower by people. By uninformed people to do
• 36:27
  something politically, right? You have you have a very popular
• 36:31
  senators in the United. United States like Elizabeth
• 36:33
  Warren just just attack after attack after attack, right?
• 36:37
  So Jeff, what are your thoughts on their?
• 36:39
  Do you believe it's malicious? Do you believe it comes from a
• 36:41
  good from a good place? What are your thoughts?
• 36:45
  I think it's a little bit more complex.
• 36:47
  I think it involves all of those things.
• 36:49
  So I think the people who understand Bitcoin, you can
• 36:52
  either if you understand Bitcoin and there's a, it's a select
• 36:56
  minority of people who actually do understand it.
• 36:58
  You either you either like it or you don't like it, right?
• 37:01
  And so it comes down to If you don't like Bitcoin and you don't
• 37:05
  think there's a role for it's a you're a statist you want the US
• 37:08
  dollar to reign supreme forever, say you're scared of the way
• 37:12
  it's going to upend traditional you know Fiat system those kind
• 37:15
  of things you don't like it. You therefore think it's a waste
• 37:19
  of energy and so any energy consumption even if it's you
• 37:22
  know one joule of energy or whatever.
• 37:24
  Sorry I don't know what terms are well you know uses one
• 37:28
  kilowatt-hour of energy or so it's anything like that it's a
• 37:31
  waste of energy right. And so, it's kind of like if you
• 37:34
  hate Christmas and Christmas lights are a total waste of
• 37:36
  energy, and why do people put Christmas lights on?
• 37:38
  I mean, can you believe it? I mean, it's insane.
• 37:40
  Why do you use refrigerators? You could just salt your meat in
• 37:43
  be fine. Like this is crazy.
• 37:44
  So this is kind of how people think and once an issue becomes
• 37:47
  political, it's no longer really evidence-based.
• 37:50
  It's no longer really even possible to talk about
• 37:52
  rationally. These people clearly have an
• 37:55
  agenda, right? Elizabeth wormtongue clearly has
• 37:58
  an agenda against Bitcoin. She's a status to her.
• 38:02
  Or, you know, she's going to defend the traditional system to
• 38:06
  her core to her death. Probably, and that's fine.
• 38:09
  You know, that's just that's the phase we're in right now, you
• 38:11
  know, first, they ignore you, then they mock you.
• 38:13
  They laugh at you, then they fight you.
• 38:15
  And then, and then you win, we're in the end.
• 38:17
  Then they fight you stage where we're transitioning from, they
• 38:20
  laugh at you part, so I don't really get bent out of shape by
• 38:23
  this honestly, I just get mostly tired by it because it's such a
• 38:25
  tedious argument. I mean it doesn't waste energy,
• 38:29
  right? It uses wasted energy.
• 38:30
  It's almost it's such a better. Better you use user of energy
• 38:35
  than almost any other thing that uses energy.
• 38:37
  It's so much more renewable. It's transformational.
• 38:42
  So it just comes down to do you like Bitcoin or not?
• 38:44
  Yes or no. And based on that you're going
• 38:46
  to say it waste energy or it doesn't waste energy.
• 38:48
  We know those and I'll stop. So we can get James in here.
• 38:52
  We know as bitcoiners that we want it to use more energy
• 38:55
  because that's how proof-of-work protects itself.
• 38:58
  That's how you have a decentralized.
• 39:00
  Secure network is proof of work. I would say by the way that all
• 39:04
  other crypto currency things out that mimic Bitcoin that want to
• 39:08
  be like Bitcoin, you guys have lost, okay?
• 39:10
  Like Sheba Doge Litecoin bsv, pick your thing, that's like
• 39:16
  Bitcoin. That still proof-of-work, you
• 39:18
  don't need to be proof of work. There only needs to be one
• 39:21
  proof-of-work money in the world.
• 39:22
  And Bitcoin has one that, you know, let the, so just accept
• 39:26
  your fate accept, what's happening and get behind
• 39:29
  Bitcoin. That's what I would say.
• 39:30
  There doesn't need to be any other proof of work system.
• 39:32
  System. So I think etherium you know
• 39:34
  love it or hate it whatever it's making the right decision to
• 39:37
  move to proof of stake. It's it's moving over to the
• 39:39
  Fiat system. That's the way to be.
• 39:42
  We don't need etherium to be proof of work.
• 39:45
  We only need one. So I'll stop there and let James
• 39:48
  Jones. And so James, same question is
• 39:51
  this malicious as they come from a good heart?
• 39:53
  What is what's your opinion on it?
• 39:55
  No, of course, it doesn't come from a good heart.
• 39:58
  I mean it, the, the system is the system and the people are in
• 40:02
  Controlled. The system are the ones who are
• 40:04
  most rewarded by it, you know. So if you look, if you want to
• 40:08
  look at, if you, if you're trying to figure out why
• 40:13
  somebody is doing something, you know, look at, look at the
• 40:17
  rewards and what they're rewarded for and so that, that,
• 40:21
  that gets you there their motivation.
• 40:25
  And so of course, they're going to fight this they've made.
• 40:28
  They've made so much money from it.
• 40:30
  They have benefited, so Probably from it.
• 40:33
  I mean, look, Nancy Pelosi couldn't trade on inside
• 40:38
  information, on bitcoin, you know, she can't just go and buy
• 40:42
  a tech stock and then push for legislation that benefits that
• 40:47
  Tech stock in Bitcoin, it just doesn't work.
• 40:51
  You know, you can't be the closest to the spigot, when
• 40:55
  money is created, if you're if you're a CEO of a major bank, if
• 41:00
  you're the CEO of Bank of America, R, JP Morgan.
• 41:04
  I mean, you're, you're benefiting greatly from the
• 41:08
  backstop and the, the input from the treasury and the fed.
• 41:14
  And you don't have to worry about failing, really, you can
• 41:17
  take as almost as much risk, you can take as much risk as they
• 41:20
  allow you to take legally and you know, you won't fail.
• 41:23
  They've already demonstrated number of times 1998, 2008 2020,
• 41:27
  you know, nothing's going to fail.
• 41:30
  Not not those big things, not until it all fails.
• 41:32
  It's so and they know that and they're going to ride this as
• 41:36
  far as they can, as long as they can.
• 41:38
  It's just a simple equation. This what it, what are the
• 41:41
  motivations for the system? Change the system, change the
• 41:44
  world. So we got to change the system
• 41:46
  and that's why we're here. That's why all of us are here is
• 41:48
  to help change the system. I was in that system for a very
• 41:51
  long time and I watched people benefit from it and, you know,
• 41:56
  some of them weren't the smartest in the world, but they
• 42:00
  were in the right place at the right time and the right
• 42:01
  connections and And now came from the right?
• 42:03
  Family or whatever and got massive amounts of money and
• 42:06
  benefit from it. And they have no clue about
• 42:10
  what's really going on bitcoin because they don't have to they
• 42:14
  don't they've got so much liquidity like Jeff said with
• 42:17
  Ilan he's got so much wealth. What does he care?
• 42:20
  Like the the destruction that would have to occur from his
• 42:24
  accounts for him to not be a billionaire is just it's beyond
• 42:31
  massive. So these guys just did they
• 42:34
  cannot even come close to to being able to understand what
• 42:42
  people who are not in their position are going through every
• 42:45
  day. I mean, people with two jobs
• 42:48
  families, who are sporting four, five, six jobs and paying for
• 42:54
  for childcare, paying for healthcare and you know, they're
• 42:58
  their mortgage just went up their rent, just went up.
• 43:00
  I mean, they can't possibly And the problem of the Fiat system
• 43:04
  and they don't need to they don't care you know and so
• 43:09
  that's its part ignorance and part protection of a system that
• 43:12
  has benefited them greatly and will continue to benefit them
• 43:15
  greatly for as long as that is a system that is in place period.
• 43:20
  It really sounds like to me that you what you're describing is
• 43:23
  proof of stake. That's what it sounded like.
• 43:26
  I think proof of stake in the old system, very, very similar
• 43:29
  in some things. Okay?
• 43:31
  So I want to cover something that That actually happened
• 43:33
  recently, right? And that was, I think the last
• 43:36
  time this happened was in 2000 and it was that the Euro and the
• 43:41
  dollar reached parity, is that healthy for the US economy,
• 43:45
  Jeff? There's nothing healthy about
• 43:51
  the US economy right now, so I mean the dollar is a wrecking
• 43:54
  ball, right? So so when things go to pot,
• 43:57
  everybody screams for the dollar, everybody clamors.
• 44:01
  They sell their stuff. They want the dollar.
• 44:03
  So the dollar goes up the dollar strengthens against all other
• 44:06
  currencies, although their Fiat currencies in general.
• 44:09
  It's just it's and and we call it a wrecking ball.
• 44:12
  It's sort of the cause and the effect a high dollar has lots of
• 44:16
  negative effects. But also, what is happening is
• 44:19
  it's just simply when people get scared, they hit the sell
• 44:22
  button, they have stocks, they have Commodities, they have real
• 44:25
  estate, they have whatever they have, they sell, sell sell sell
• 44:28
  because they're panicking, like Jim Cramer would tell them to
• 44:30
  and then they're buying the dollar.
• 44:32
  So that strengthens the dollar. There's basically a shortage of
• 44:35
  dollars is a shortage of dollar liquidity throughout the world
• 44:39
  and that's never a good thing. Basically, when that happens,
• 44:41
  that's when we have these kind of financial crises that throw
• 44:45
  the world into chaos, you know, the last one was kind of the
• 44:47
  Great. Fight the great financial crisis
• 44:49
  back in 07, 08 09, those kind of things.
• 44:53
  We we never really can get out of this cyclical system that
• 44:59
  were in because of this dollar base system that we're in.
• 45:03
  So you but I'm really hearing is it good?
• 45:06
  That there's parity? Does it mean anything that
• 45:08
  there's parity with the Euro basically what we're seeing
• 45:11
  right is the u.s. is tightening. The dollar is strengthening
• 45:14
  we're taking our medicine first. The European Union.
• 45:20
  They have a special problem over there where they can't tighten.
• 45:24
  Like, we can tighten as aggressively here, it's because
• 45:26
  they're going to leave other countries behind who are really
• 45:29
  struggling right now. So the main one that comes to
• 45:31
  mind is Italy, Italy, and Greece are two countries to look out
• 45:34
  for. If they raise rates, they're
• 45:36
  basically going to just destroy Italy.
• 45:38
  What's left of them and grease. And so they're kind of stuck
• 45:42
  right now. It's going to be very difficult
• 45:43
  for them to raise rates without causing just major Calamity.
• 45:47
  I've been people that this is this is the reason why I'm so
• 45:51
  bearish and I get a lot of crap for it, and that's okay.
• 45:55
  But the reason why I'm so embarrassed right now is we've
• 45:57
  been sort of kicking the can down the road from crisis, to
• 46:00
  crisis to crisis. And now we're at the crisis
• 46:02
  where I think we're going to see Sovereign Nations developed
• 46:06
  countries, actually start to default.
• 46:08
  I think we're seeing huge stresses right now.
• 46:11
  In Japan we're seeing it happen in specific European countries
• 46:14
  as well. And if any one of these things
• 46:17
  cracks and falls I'd like we saw in the crypto world when Tara
• 46:20
  Luna collapsed and none of us care about that because we're
• 46:22
  bitcoiners. But even though it did write it
• 46:24
  cause this contagion throughout the entire system and it even
• 46:27
  suck down Bitcoin with it. If one of those countries failed
• 46:30
  and it's a major economy that's going to be a massive contagion
• 46:34
  effect and that's really serious.
• 46:35
  Like that's when you start wondering if the entire system
• 46:38
  is going to collapse. Oh, that's what I'm concerned
• 46:39
  about. We might get through it without
• 46:41
  that happening, but we might not.
• 46:43
  And so that's why I tend to lean pretty bearish right now.
• 46:46
  It's, that's really, really interesting.
• 46:48
  Resting James and really curious.
• 46:49
  Do you agree with Jeff with that with the hypothesis that theory?
• 46:54
  Yeah, I mean first of all it's not great for the United States
• 46:56
  you know, where a net importer. So we need the US dollar to be a
• 47:01
  little bit weaker against other currencies for our RX are
• 47:05
  importing, you know, the foreign country's exports to to work,
• 47:11
  right? So the problem is that another
• 47:14
  issue in Jeff is right? There's a flight to safety here,
• 47:17
  the US. There's absolutely no doubt
• 47:19
  about it and if you look at Japan and you look at what
• 47:23
  they're doing and they're artificially holding their
• 47:26
  interest rates Low by you know they're executing what's called
• 47:30
  yield curve control by buying their 10-year Treasury and
• 47:33
  keeping it at point two five percent.
• 47:35
  They said that they will buy as many as they need to buy in
• 47:37
  order to keep it there they're already own the bank of Japan
• 47:40
  already owns over 50% of all ggbs that are out there which is
• 47:44
  just mind-boggling. No other no Central Bank has
• 47:46
  done that before. And so, but the problem is, as
• 47:50
  investors sell those jgbs those 10 years and other other
• 47:55
  treasuries other yields there, they're selling those in there,
• 48:00
  getting in which they don't want to hold onto and they're selling
• 48:03
  those Yen and buying US dollars with them.
• 48:07
  And they're doing that in order to most likely buy us.
• 48:10
  Treasuries because when they get out of the jgbs, they want to
• 48:13
  have something that has yield. And the and the 10-year treasury
• 48:16
  in the in the u.s. is Using wrong 3%, so rather than
• 48:20
  yielding point two five percent, they can yield three percent if
• 48:23
  they just move their dollars there yen into Dollars.
• 48:26
  Basically. Okay, so that makes the dollar
• 48:28
  stronger. The same things going on in
• 48:31
  Europe and like Jeff said, they're in a really tough spot
• 48:34
  if the ECB raises rates and that and we already saw what happened
• 48:39
  when that inflation rate came out the last inflation print
• 48:42
  from Europe, from the Eurozone, came out 8.6 percent Well,
• 48:48
  people kind of panicked knowing that.
• 48:50
  Well, the ecb's got to raise rates, they cannot sit there at
• 48:53
  negative rates. The ECB has been sitting on
• 48:55
  negative rates for 11 years and they still haven't raised rates
• 49:01
  at a record inflation and they still haven't raised rates are
• 49:03
  supposed to raise them. I think tomorrow, maybe 25 basis
• 49:07
  points and you know but the problem is like Jeff said If
• 49:11
  they raise them and it impacts Italy and Greece and Spain and
• 49:16
  Portugal - Will those those countries are going to then
• 49:20
  require a new tool that the ECB is come up with a fragmentation
• 49:25
  tool where they yield curve control.
• 49:27
  Same thing that they're doing out in in Japan.
• 49:30
  They're going to buy treasuries, in Italy and Greece in the
• 49:35
  first, go to maintain those rates in order to make sure that
• 49:41
  you don't have Italian Banks. And then, you know, the Italian
• 49:48
  Ins then basically are the Italy will default and so they can't
• 49:53
  have that. So the issue is the ECB can't
• 49:58
  can't raise rates to match the United States.
• 50:01
  So again you're selling, you're selling your Euros because
• 50:05
  you're selling European bonds to get better yield in the United
• 50:10
  States and you have a flight to Safety in the United States.
• 50:13
  And like Jeff said, there's so many instruments around the
• 50:17
  world. That are based in u.s. dollars.
• 50:20
  And I actually just talked about this in my newsletter this past
• 50:24
  weekend and it's called the dollar milkshake and it was it
• 50:26
  was presented by this guy, Brent Johnson of Santiago capital and
• 50:31
  it's basically a riff on the hypothesis that it's kind of it
• 50:37
  comes from the action of extracting oil from a
• 50:41
  neighboring property by drilling a really long straw.
• 50:44
  So you go underground drill along style and then straw, and
• 50:47
  then suck the oil. Oil slurp the oil out of your
• 50:49
  neighbors land. Well, it's the same thing with
• 50:52
  the United States will just say that you have a milkshake, okay,
• 50:55
  Nico and Jeff is over there and he's on the entire other side of
• 51:00
  the diner. You're at sitting at one table
• 51:01
  and one side of the diner and Jeff said, another table, the
• 51:04
  other side of the diner and you know, in this case the milkshake
• 51:08
  is your milkshake is the foreign currency now Jeff drills, a
• 51:13
  straw picks up a straw. That is really long and drops it
• 51:17
  into your Akshay. Can start drinking your milk.
• 51:20
  Shake from all the way across the room.
• 51:22
  Well, that straw is the, it's the denying US dollar
• 51:25
  denominated liabilities that US dollar denominated debt Euro
• 51:30
  dollars and then Central Bank and and major global bank
• 51:33
  liquidity. It's the government bond
• 51:35
  interest rate differences that we just talked about and it just
• 51:38
  sucks all that liquidity into Jeff's milkshake which is the US
• 51:42
  dollar and so that's that's literally what's happening right
• 51:46
  now. And it's It's happening real
• 51:48
  time. We're seeing it.
• 51:50
  And, you know, like Jeff said that we could see a major
• 51:53
  Sovereign default because of this, the fact that it the US
• 51:58
  Dollars just sucking the quiddity out of other markets
• 52:01
  and it is becoming a clear problem and I don't know, I'm,
• 52:06
  I'm happy to own US Dollars and be denominated in u.s. dollars
• 52:10
  right now but in the end there's no other way out and the US
• 52:15
  dollar what may be the last one standing?
• 52:18
  Invite what's it going to be worth?
• 52:20
  You know, how much are we going to inflate until that happens?
• 52:24
  So I that's why I mean I own Bitcoin for the inevitability
• 52:28
  that one day, it all collapses and I don't know if that's going
• 52:32
  to be in my lifetime or if you know before Jeff's kids are
• 52:37
  teenagers. But you know, I mean it's it's a
• 52:42
  problem across the world, I love that.
• 52:46
  Scription about, you know, sucking this Straw and all that
• 52:49
  stuff and it, if I can't believe that the US has that much power
• 52:54
  where they, you know, they print all this money, it responsibly
• 52:58
  and then everyone else because they need the dollar just foots.
• 53:02
  The bill, which is, I think is what you were describing James
• 53:05
  and it's just absolute Insanity me.
• 53:07
  I think there's a major Was that sound that you update?
• 53:12
  Oh I've got some you know you've got you those blowers right
• 53:16
  there silver and I'm in I'm in a vacation house over.
• 53:21
  No problem. Do I have Opti prayers and you
• 53:23
  know um you know no worries, no worries.
• 53:25
  Okay so I got it. I got a I got a question from a
• 53:28
  fan. I'm gonna pass it on to you
• 53:29
  Jeff, right? And I asked this question Nick
• 53:31
  Bhatia while ago, right? But opted, he's like don't blame
• 53:36
  me, that's funny. I'm always going to blame you
• 53:38
  bro. So Jeff does Bitcoin make bonds
• 53:44
  obsolete on a long enough time scale because I asked the
• 53:47
  question, does Bitcoin make bonds Obsolete and that box is
• 53:49
  like not anytime soon so I added a little bit.
• 53:53
  So on a long enough time scale does Bitcoin, make bonds
• 53:55
  obsolete on a long enough time scale.
• 53:59
  It makes them obsoletes a really powerful word, right?
• 54:03
  Never Say, Never so I don't like to talk in absolutes.
• 54:05
  I think it makes that system much less relevant for sure.
• 54:09
  Sure, I think the whole concept of borrowing and credit based
• 54:12
  system, is kind of another Fiat construct.
• 54:15
  It's not, it's not only Fiat, but it was.
• 54:18
  It's it's incredibly potent and necessary in a Fiat system in a
• 54:26
  Bitcoin system. I think we get just a completely
• 54:28
  different way of thinking about things.
• 54:30
  I think we get sort of an equity based way of thinking, about
• 54:33
  things, instead of a borrowing way of thinking about things,
• 54:37
  just because of how Bitcoin is created.
• 54:39
  And, you know, so assuming we're talking long time down the road.
• 54:42
  So we're talking decades and decades from now, I assume
• 54:45
  that's the time frame. We're working with by, then I
• 54:48
  expect to be on a Bitcoin standard.
• 54:50
  I expect Bitcoin to be the world's Reserve currency and
• 54:53
  world's Reserve asset. Both of those things by that
• 54:56
  point they're still. Maybe maybe the US dollar will
• 54:58
  still be around. Maybe something else will still
• 55:00
  be around. I don't know.
• 55:02
  They're not really necessary though.
• 55:04
  We don't need other medium of exchange has once layer 2 and
• 55:07
  layer 3 get built out on bitcoin.
• 55:08
  So that's my take. Take on it, when it does, it
• 55:11
  will be very different because when you have a currency that
• 55:14
  appreciates by Nature when it's perfectly scarce and but you
• 55:18
  know, it's disinflationary soon to be in 2140 non-inflationary.
• 55:22
  So not deflationary per se but non-inflationary that changes
• 55:26
  how all of the mathematics work and how you think about things
• 55:29
  like you wouldn't really want to borrow against it and have to
• 55:33
  pay the same amount of Bitcoin for 30 years.
• 55:35
  Like we do today with cash right now.
• 55:38
  You want to do that you To take long-dated mortgages and other
• 55:43
  type of loans out from Banks because your fiat currency is
• 55:46
  losing value, its depreciating over time so it actually
• 55:50
  benefits you mathematically to do that.
• 55:52
  You want to take loans out if you can't afford it and if you
• 55:55
  have the cash flow to pay it because it gets easier and
• 55:57
  easier to pay off that because the money is getting of less
• 56:01
  value over time. Bitcoin does the exact opposite
• 56:05
  if you had to pay somebody, you know, one Bitcoin per year for
• 56:08
  the next 30 Years. If you would get wrecked and you
• 56:11
  would get ruined and there'd be, no way you could do that.
• 56:12
  So it's just going to completely rejigger the whole way.
• 56:15
  We think about these kind of things and think about
• 56:17
  borrowing, how do you pay back Bitcoin loans?
• 56:20
  It's just a whole different scenario.
• 56:21
  So that's a really long answer to say.
• 56:23
  I think borrowing the way we currently think about.
• 56:26
  It will be very different and it will be much less prominent in
• 56:30
  the future on a Bitcoin standard bullish.
• 56:33
  That sounds awesome. That sounds like a really nice
• 56:35
  feature James. Same question.
• 56:38
  And then we'll get to get to the Very spicy spicy questions at
• 56:41
  the end that everyone I think is looking forward to.
• 56:43
  So James does Bitcoin make bonds obsolete on and on a long enough
• 56:49
  time scale I think Jeff laid it out pretty nicely on the the way
• 56:54
  that inflation works and it and that helps you pay off debt.
• 56:58
  I mean, I had this conversation with somebody.
• 57:00
  Just just the other day I went to Wells, Fargo to send a wire,
• 57:03
  right? I mean, God, you have to fill
• 57:05
  out paperwork and they and it takes hours to.
• 57:08
  I mean, it's just, it's It's ludicrous, right?
• 57:12
  But old world system and I'm sitting there talking this young
• 57:14
  banker and and he's asked me about the economy.
• 57:18
  And knows I'm an investor and he and he said, yeah, I'm going to
• 57:22
  pay off my mortgage. I was like, wait, you have is it
• 57:25
  variable interest rate like what's going?
• 57:27
  He's like, no, no, I have a fixed rate at like three point
• 57:30
  eight percent or something. I was like, why are you paying
• 57:33
  that off? He said, well, because I've got
• 57:35
  cash, I want to, I want to pay it off, they'll have more cash.
• 57:38
  I'm like Now you did you just see the inflation rate?
• 57:42
  Like it's getting easier for you to pay that off?
• 57:44
  As long as you get raises down the road, you're going to it's
• 57:46
  going to be easier if you and so just trying to explain that to
• 57:50
  people again with they're not you know, We're not incentivized
• 57:56
  our system, to make people really smart about personal
• 58:00
  investing and their own money. You know, it's just not when I
• 58:04
  incentivized to do that which is just, it's a shame in near the
• 58:08
  nearly criminal. But one thing I would add to
• 58:10
  what Jeff was saying is that what Bitcoin does, is it, it, it
• 58:14
  eliminates counterparty risk, you know, you know exactly.
• 58:18
  You don't need to know who your counterparty is because your
• 58:21
  dollar your dollar is not U.s. dollar anymore.
• 58:25
  It's not paper. It's actually something that you
• 58:29
  can put in escrow and you know exactly where it is.
• 58:32
  It you have all of that data again, you know, against which
• 58:37
  you don't even have to see it's there and you know it so it can
• 58:42
  be verified without trust and that's the point that, you know,
• 58:46
  that that's that's a that's the biggest leap that we have.
• 58:50
  You know, that that's so critical about Bitcoin is that
• 58:53
  you don't have to To trust the banker as long as you know that
• 58:57
  it is in escrow that you can both see with multisig or
• 59:02
  whatever, however, it's going to be set up.
• 59:04
  So if you don't have this 10 layers of debt on top of it, I
• 59:08
  mean you we can see what happens when, even if you're using
• 59:13
  Bitcoin as as your collateral, you know, if you don't know
• 59:17
  where that collateral is and how many times has been
• 59:19
  collateralized, well, we've seen what happens with that.
• 59:22
  And so Can keep trying to make to squeeze Bitcoin into it a
• 59:28
  Fiat standard but you know you have you suffer the same
• 59:32
  consequences but Bitcoin allows us to avoid that in the future
• 59:36
  and that's the biggest, that's the biggest leap and that's what
• 59:39
  I'm most excited about. Oh yeah.
• 59:41
  Okay speaking about exciting James when you came on simply
• 59:45
  Bitcoin a while ago, ask you this creation question and it
• 59:48
  fascinated me. So I'm going to pass it on to
• 59:50
  Jeff and then James you could add to it if you'd like What is
• 59:54
  the end goal here? What, you know, how finny had
• 59:59
  this very famous post many many years ago in the early days of
• 1:00:03
  Bitcoin and he broke it down. Nick Bhatia in know it was was
• 1:00:11
  it wasn't Nick Bhatia. It was the author of the bullish
• 1:00:14
  case for Bitcoin. In his name is slipping my mind
• 1:00:16
  and I apologize Vijay boy apologize.
• 1:00:19
  Yeah. PJ boy your party.
• 1:00:21
  He mentioned it in the in the end of his book as well.
• 1:00:26
  What is your ultimate bullish case on Bitcoin in terms of
• 1:00:29
  price? Why do you think we will get
• 1:00:32
  there? How do we capture that?
• 1:00:34
  And how long will it take? Jeff, you're gonna think I'm
• 1:00:38
  joking when I say this or that I'm just really stupid.
• 1:00:40
  But the there is End game for the price of Bitcoin.
• 1:00:44
  Because I think it mathematically approaches
• 1:00:46
  Infinity over time. So it sounds crazy to say that.
• 1:00:50
  But but that's because of its properties, right?
• 1:00:53
  So if you have something perfectly scarce and if you have
• 1:00:57
  forever increasing you know human GDP over time and
• 1:01:02
  productivity that will get transferred into Bitcoin into
• 1:01:06
  the value of Bitcoin. So over time it just sort of
• 1:01:09
  increases in definitely to the point where it doesn't really
• 1:01:12
  matter. Anymore and that sounds funny to
• 1:01:14
  say also. So it's also, we're living in
• 1:01:18
  such a tumultuous decade, getting back to James and the
• 1:01:23
  the dollar milkshake Theory, we're going to see literally
• 1:01:27
  sovereign debt collapse nations in huge Peril Fiat, currencies
• 1:01:33
  collapse and that purchasing power has to go somewhere.
• 1:01:37
  So that value is going to go somewhere.
• 1:01:39
  I've been saying that I think in the shorter time frames on the
• 1:01:41
  next 10 years. I think we see The purchasing
• 1:01:44
  power, from these weaker currencies, go into the big
• 1:01:47
  three. So I think they go into the u.s.
• 1:01:49
  dollar still. I think they go into the Chinese
• 1:01:51
  Yuan, if they're of the Chinese, Russia ilk, or they go into
• 1:01:55
  Bitcoin, and obviously, the smart one is, I think to go into
• 1:01:57
  Bitcoin and then I think eventually Bitcoin engulfs China
• 1:02:01
  and the US dollar as well. And that's just what happens in
• 1:02:05
  when that's going on. It's hard to understand this
• 1:02:07
  now, but it's going to be so volatile.
• 1:02:10
  And so crazy for these Fiat currencies, they're going to be
• 1:02:12
  doing Doing this with volatility and kind of like Weimar Germany,
• 1:02:16
  right? And and suddenly, you know what
• 1:02:19
  you could you used to be able to buy, you know, one Bitcoin for
• 1:02:22
  twenty thousand US Dollars, it's going to be a million dollars
• 1:02:25
  and it's going to be 5 million dollars and by that point the US
• 1:02:27
  dollar won't be worth much and it's just going to be a
• 1:02:30
  completely different kind of era at that point.
• 1:02:33
  And that's when it all just sort of envelops into Bitcoin and
• 1:02:37
  just becomes this, you know, this this entity that takes over
• 1:02:41
  the financial Some of the world. So it's a really lame answer.
• 1:02:45
  I'm sorry but that's what I think and so I don't know how
• 1:02:48
  long it's going to take. I will say that based on how
• 1:02:51
  concerned I am for what's going on around the world that we may
• 1:02:54
  see a bit of this happen sooner than later.
• 1:02:57
  So we've been really disappointed since you know the
• 1:02:59
  last year and a half or so Bitcoin went from 10 to 60 and
• 1:03:04
  then it's just been that's just super painful ride back down to
• 1:03:06
  20 or so. I think we're going to see some
• 1:03:09
  excitement to the upside here in the next couple of years.
• 1:03:12
  That's going to kind of surprised people.
• 1:03:14
  I also think there's a chance that Bitcoin decouples, finally,
• 1:03:17
  from tech stocks from the NASDAQ, because I think most of
• 1:03:21
  the downside is built-in. I think most of the people who
• 1:03:23
  are holding Bitcoin currently are the ogs, the Believers, the
• 1:03:27
  dollar cost average is the people who are never going to
• 1:03:29
  sell, right? I mean I'm not going to sell if
• 1:03:31
  Bitcoin dips to a thousand dollars today or $100.
• 1:03:34
  I'm just going to keep buying and I'm not going to really care
• 1:03:37
  because I know where it's going. And I'm so convinced of that
• 1:03:39
  that I just buy it at any price basically.
• 1:03:42
  Don't go ahead. All right, good does the back to
• 1:03:46
  you. Jeff does the Dollar need to
• 1:03:48
  fail for Bitcoin to reach 1 million dollars?
• 1:03:51
  Because I heard you say you know no I think I think the dollar is
• 1:03:56
  going to be the last to fall to be very clear and I think we're
• 1:03:59
  still a long ways away from that like years decades, possibly
• 1:04:02
  away from that. For sure.
• 1:04:04
  I think we're going to see the failure of lots of weaker
• 1:04:07
  smaller, Fiat currencies. Well before that.
• 1:04:09
  So, no. But I do think that the dollar
• 1:04:12
  is Is depreciated significantly. So it's hard to say like does
• 1:04:16
  that mean in today's dollars, it's going to be worth a million
• 1:04:18
  dollars that will take much longer I think when the next
• 1:04:20
  round of quantitative easing comes around and we see some
• 1:04:23
  more debasement and the next, you know, we're going to buy
• 1:04:26
  them at some point, right? It's going to get really ugly
• 1:04:28
  here for the next month's or quarters.
• 1:04:31
  Some point. We bought them.
• 1:04:32
  And then, at some point things, get good.
• 1:04:33
  Again, the business cycle turns that we get flooded with
• 1:04:36
  liquidity, again Fiat currencies, debase, lots of
• 1:04:39
  that's going to go into the going to bitcoin.
• 1:04:42
  So it's going to be To say how much a dollar is worth at that
• 1:04:44
  point, but it's going to be an exciting decade.
• 1:04:47
  Awesome! Well, I'm definitely excited for
• 1:04:50
  the ride. It definitely feels very
• 1:04:51
  exciting. James, same question and I mean,
• 1:04:56
  I don't think it's a stupid answer.
• 1:04:58
  A lame answer and Jeff it's just, it's way out there.
• 1:05:00
  And, you know, in time time you're demonstrating how low
• 1:05:04
  your time for appearances and that's good.
• 1:05:06
  So thank you. You know, I do think that the
• 1:05:10
  first thing that happens well obviously Bitcoin is its kind of
• 1:05:15
  its shares to different camps, right now.
• 1:05:17
  It shares the enthusiasts and the maximalist, you know, people
• 1:05:22
  who really truly do understand it and and I don't say
• 1:05:27
  enthusiasts lightly, I mean the people who really get it, okay,
• 1:05:31
  and then the investors who are playing around in it and the
• 1:05:35
  investors who don't understand it and are just they're using it
• 1:05:38
  as an investment as something. It's like a new technology and
• 1:05:41
  it's got a lot of It's got a huge amount of beta in it and so
• 1:05:45
  when the when the market rips Bitcoin drips and when the
• 1:05:49
  market Falls bit coin Falls and so they're using it to trade
• 1:05:52
  around at some point and I think Jeff is correct.
• 1:05:56
  I well I mean of course I think Jeff is correct.
• 1:06:00
  He's got a he's got so many brilliant things to say, but I
• 1:06:03
  agree with Jeff that that we do dip decouple and when, once we
• 1:06:07
  decouple from the technology sector, that's a big.
• 1:06:11
  That's a big leap. Deep.
• 1:06:13
  And so that's your first, real major milestone in my mind to
• 1:06:17
  get past that a certain market, share, and a market cap of
• 1:06:23
  Bitcoin. And maybe that jumps it up to
• 1:06:25
  250 or 500 thousand dollars per Bitcoin and that's like the
• 1:06:30
  first big leap, what's going to drive that?
• 1:06:33
  Well, it could be a lot of different things.
• 1:06:35
  I mean, it could be a combination of any of the above
• 1:06:39
  thing, the expansion of them to supply again, because of what
• 1:06:42
  Saying about the cycle and the FED cycle and fed manipulation
• 1:06:47
  and Central Bank manipulation, it could be introduced.
• 1:06:50
  GF, that is actually cash basins, not manipulated by
• 1:06:53
  Futures just cash cash. That's actually Bitcoin base.
• 1:06:57
  Sorry cat and, you know, cash ETF versus something like the
• 1:07:03
  Futures ETF which is just paper. It could be a number of large
• 1:07:10
  investors. That announced that They are
• 1:07:13
  that are they're buying it for their own portfolios and they're
• 1:07:17
  and they're allowing it to be entered into their portfolios.
• 1:07:22
  We're taught, we, you know, we've heard it from Fidelity.
• 1:07:24
  We know that black rock has been sniffing around, but once you
• 1:07:27
  get State Street and you get I mean there there's there's five
• 1:07:33
  there's five. Investment firms that control?
• 1:07:39
  30 trillion dollars of assets, right?
• 1:07:42
  It's BlackRock Vanguard Fidelity State Street and Morgan Stanley.
• 1:07:46
  But when you get one of those that comes out in Earnest and
• 1:07:48
  says that they could be another thing that adds to it.
• 1:07:51
  You also have, you know, a nation state could come out.
• 1:07:58
  The things that we're seeing that we've talked about with the
• 1:08:01
  dollar milkshake that a nation state could adopt it just out of
• 1:08:04
  protection. But Once that happens, that's
• 1:08:06
  when it decouples and that investment becomes something
• 1:08:10
  different, it becomes a store of value and something that it that
• 1:08:13
  earns a place of everybody's portfolio.
• 1:08:15
  And when that happens, well then we're going to a million dollars
• 1:08:20
  for. Yeah.
• 1:08:20
  And that's just like a, it's just kind of a simple leap, you
• 1:08:23
  know because when it turns that spot in everybody's portfolio
• 1:08:27
  and they say this is the gold that I that that it's so easily
• 1:08:33
  transferred. It it's it.
• 1:08:34
  I don't eat. So he's East or die, I can I can
• 1:08:38
  you know I can move it quickly, I can move it with me.
• 1:08:42
  I you know it doesn't have inflationary aspect so it's that
• 1:08:47
  it's that Perfection of money that we've been looking for.
• 1:08:51
  Okay, that's when it turns into money and as other currencies
• 1:08:55
  collapse and we end up with just the US dollar, just the
• 1:08:58
  russian-chinese one Ruble, whatever it is.
• 1:09:04
  Because that's basically And Commodities.
• 1:09:06
  Well then we're in a new world and Bitcoin leaps into yet
• 1:09:11
  another phase and then it goes from 1 million to what 10
• 1:09:14
  million. And then from there it just
• 1:09:17
  starts its swallows and I don't know if it's going to hit 10
• 1:09:21
  million or a hundred million in my lifetime, but I do believe
• 1:09:24
  that it will hit those numbers at some point.
• 1:09:27
  But at that point might, I think what Jeff is saying is that
• 1:09:31
  you're not going to be thinking about it in terms of a hundred
• 1:09:34
  million As per coin, you're going to be thinking about it
• 1:09:37
  is. How many sets do I have in my
• 1:09:40
  period? Yeah, that that wow, you guys
• 1:09:43
  made me feel so bullish. Now, one last question.
• 1:09:47
  And I, by the way, I agree with the decoupling theory is that
• 1:09:52
  going to happen in the next 10 years.
• 1:09:54
  Jeff. And then last question to James
• 1:09:57
  and then we will wrap it up. So complete decoupling.
• 1:10:02
  Yes, I think it's going to happen a little sooner than we
• 1:10:05
  think. I also think, by the way, we're
• 1:10:06
  going to see it on a little minor scale not for the reasons.
• 1:10:09
  James talking about not because people have figured out that
• 1:10:11
  it's just better money, that's years down the road, but I think
• 1:10:14
  that's like 2025 2026 or so based on just rate of adoption
• 1:10:18
  and use cases and things like that.
• 1:10:21
  I think we're going to see a bit of decoupling coming up this,
• 1:10:25
  this half of 2022, actually. And that's mainly, because
• 1:10:28
  Bitcoin sniffs things out so quickly, and it's stiff now
• 1:10:31
  trouble under the hood way back in early November, it's Going to
• 1:10:35
  be, I think the first to sniff out when things are starting to
• 1:10:38
  look good. Again, when we go from bad to
• 1:10:40
  less bad, I also think that almost all of the downside has
• 1:10:45
  been already priced into it. So we've been through the worst
• 1:10:48
  of it so far. I really think.
• 1:10:49
  And I talked a lot with the the on chain analysts a lot of the
• 1:10:54
  famous guys on their Checkmate was one of them that I was
• 1:10:56
  talking in a room with him quite a bit about this.
• 1:10:58
  We both think and he can prove it and I, this was my theory and
• 1:11:01
  then he proved it with on chain analytics.
• 1:11:03
  We're basically all of the lettuce hands All of the
• 1:11:05
  Traders, all of the tourists are gone right now, it's just left
• 1:11:09
  to the Old Guard. It's just left to though, you
• 1:11:10
  know, the three of us and all the other people like us, who
• 1:11:13
  dollar cost, average who buy it, every paycheck, you know, those
• 1:11:16
  kind of things. We're the ones who are left and
• 1:11:19
  we're not selling and so, so we're kind of at that point now
• 1:11:21
  where there's not really that many people left to sell,
• 1:11:24
  there's some people still trading around in it, but it's
• 1:11:26
  just I think it just goes kind of choppy sideways for a while.
• 1:11:29
  While equities still take another bath, I think equities
• 1:11:31
  are going down another 20 30, 40 percent, possibly He may be more
• 1:11:35
  from here so personally and that's how I'm doing it.
• 1:11:39
  And just, you know, for full disclosure like I'm shorting
• 1:11:42
  equities like crazy right now and I still have been shorting.
• 1:11:45
  And I think this current we're at July 20th, right now, we've
• 1:11:49
  seen a nice rally for basically the entire month of July.
• 1:11:52
  I think this is a typical bear Market rally.
• 1:11:54
  I am not excited that we were at the start of a new bull market
• 1:11:57
  for equities. I do not believe that for a
• 1:11:59
  second. I think we have lower to go.
• 1:12:01
  So I would use these opportunities to short when
• 1:12:04
  you're seeing lat. Eddie being sucked out of the
• 1:12:06
  system dollar shortage everywhere and the dollar
• 1:12:09
  wrecking ball because the Dixie's spiking, you see all
• 1:12:11
  this stuff going on. Those are all very clear signs
• 1:12:14
  at least to me as a fund manager that you need to be short and
• 1:12:18
  you need to be bearish and you need to lean bearish.
• 1:12:20
  So you don't have to hedge. Like I do you can just hedge
• 1:12:23
  just by increasing your cash position but I think it's not a
• 1:12:27
  bad strategy right now to be shorting equities and to be
• 1:12:30
  buying Bitcoin, while it's cheap and dollar cost averaging.
• 1:12:33
  In the Bitcoin, while it's cheap, I think that's a great
• 1:12:35
  Long-term strategy take advantage of short-term
• 1:12:37
  weakness. Put it into the best long-term
• 1:12:39
  asset that's ever been created and you'll do really well.
• 1:12:43
  Awesome. That's very, very good advice,
• 1:12:45
  guys. James, when is this decoupling
• 1:12:47
  happening last question? Yeah, I think it will be a short
• 1:12:52
  decoupling like, Jeff was saying Bitcoins, demonstrated some
• 1:12:58
  leading on the risk on at, for the last, how many, how many
• 1:13:02
  months and that correlation has been pretty strong with the q's,
• 1:13:06
  right? So, we've seen, how quickly the
• 1:13:09
  queues move after Bitcoin Bitcoin does sniff it out first
• 1:13:12
  and it does move first. So when the FED is going to
• 1:13:16
  pause and turn Bitcoin will most likely rip first, but there
• 1:13:22
  could be pain between now. And then, I mean, you know, I'm
• 1:13:25
  A cautionary. And that's why I'm just like not
• 1:13:28
  just all in every single, you know, every single time it dips,
• 1:13:32
  you've got a layer yourself in, I could see nice strong Wick
• 1:13:37
  down, but then a really strong reversal from that because of
• 1:13:41
  exactly what Jeff was saying, is that the risk is priced in.
• 1:13:44
  You know, this is where we could just touch that 85 percent down,
• 1:13:49
  or where 80 percent down from where it was on 69,000.
• 1:13:54
  So, you know, you We could touch that fourteen thousand dollar
• 1:13:57
  mark on a really hard Wick down, but I don't think it stays
• 1:14:01
  there. I think we were sweet shop
• 1:14:03
  sideways for a while and then once the FED is very clear that
• 1:14:08
  they're going to pause or turn then Bitcoins going to move
• 1:14:12
  first because that's that's the nature of it right now.
• 1:14:15
  So decouples for a little bit but then the q's catch up again
• 1:14:19
  and it's going to take a minute for people to understand that
• 1:14:22
  this is this is different. And for investors to The
• 1:14:25
  understand it and for that massive amount of money in the
• 1:14:29
  markets at the hundreds of trillions of dollars that have
• 1:14:32
  that, that just a few people are in control of for that to for
• 1:14:39
  it, to be to be set apart. Like we were talking about just
• 1:14:43
  a little while ago as something that earns a place in your
• 1:14:46
  portfolio, it's going to take a minute.
• 1:14:48
  But for it to decouple for good, Wow.
• 1:14:54
  Gentlemen. That was that was amazing.
• 1:14:57
  That was my, that was the first interview format for simply
• 1:15:03
  Bitcoin. I'm super as you can see, I'm
• 1:15:06
  still having a little technical so learning.
• 1:15:09
  It's a lot of guys. I apologize, guys, I really hope
• 1:15:13
  you and you enjoyed the show. Gentlemen, thank you so much for
• 1:15:16
  for joining me. Jeff.
• 1:15:18
  Why don't you tell everybody where they could find you what
• 1:15:20
  you're working on? Sure, if you want to just hang
• 1:15:24
  out, I'm on Twitter all the time I handle is at Ville shower cap.
• 1:15:28
  I love talking about Bitcoin, obviously, and finance, and
• 1:15:30
  Investments and stuff. If you want to learn about what
• 1:15:32
  I do for a living you with Veil Shire, I obviously manage
• 1:15:35
  accounts quite differently than most financial planners and
• 1:15:39
  investment advisors do so you can just check out.
• 1:15:40
  Bill scherrer.com, you can even shoot me an email at info at
• 1:15:44
  Vail share.com and I'll get that now respond to you personally.
• 1:15:47
  Awesome. Great James.
• 1:15:50
  When he tell everybody what you're working on, I know you
• 1:15:52
  have a great newsletter, which I'm subscribed to.
• 1:15:56
  Yeah, thank you. Well, first, thank you for
• 1:15:58
  having me on Nico. It's always good to see you and
• 1:16:00
  Jeff. I'm sad that that faucet to drop
• 1:16:03
  off but we'll get, we'll get that fixed up and do it again
• 1:16:06
  sometime soon. But yeah, you can find me on
• 1:16:09
  Twitter just James lavish on Twitter.
• 1:16:12
  I'm also working on, I help out with that platform.
• 1:16:16
  The the Looking-Glass education platform that's in my Twitter
• 1:16:20
  bio and That's a great little, that's a great platform.
• 1:16:24
  For people, learn about money, the history of money.
• 1:16:26
  The uses of it really understand the workings of it and why
• 1:16:31
  Bitcoin fixes so many of the problems we have in Fiat.
• 1:16:34
  So that's a great, that's a great starting place for a lot
• 1:16:36
  of people. If you want, if you want to help
• 1:16:38
  people understand money and Bitcoin, that's a great place to
• 1:16:41
  send them. And then my newsletter.
• 1:16:43
  Yeah, I put it out each week every Sunday morning.
• 1:16:45
  It's just I take one complicated, concept from
• 1:16:49
  finance, and I simplify it for every day.
• 1:16:52
  People for you to understand what is going on in this world
• 1:16:56
  and all of these acronyms, we throw around these terms.
• 1:16:59
  And these, you know, the, the Little India isms that we throw
• 1:17:03
  around that, that you may not understand you hear them all the
• 1:17:06
  time. Like the milkshake Theory or you
• 1:17:08
  hear about CVS's or you hear about the repo Market, but you
• 1:17:11
  don't really understand it. So I try to break it down, super
• 1:17:14
  simple just a few minutes each Sunday morning.
• 1:17:16
  So it gets you kind of just a little bit smarter and it pulls
• 1:17:21
  down the Certain that all the system hides behind and makes it
• 1:17:26
  easier for people to understand what is happening around them
• 1:17:28
  and to them and a little bit smarter and their own in their
• 1:17:31
  own finances. So that's kind of a sore knee.
• 1:17:34
  Yeah, that's exactly. Go ahead.
• 1:17:36
  Go ahead guys. Jump in quick.
• 1:17:37
  To just say James is newsletter, is just fantastic.
• 1:17:40
  So if you guys haven't signed up for that, please do he writes it
• 1:17:43
  you can tell he really knows what he's talking about because
• 1:17:46
  he explains it. Like he's talking to like a
• 1:17:48
  ninth grader in like anyone can understand it.
• 1:17:50
  It's fantastic. It's taking.
• 1:17:52
  Lex Financial subjects and making it so anyone can
• 1:17:54
  understand. I think you're doing a great
• 1:17:56
  service for the world James. I love it that you do that.
• 1:17:59
  So I'm a big fan of what you do in your work.
• 1:18:02
  Thank you man, I really appreciate that.
• 1:18:04
  I really do this thing. Craig pop back in Greg, Greg.
• 1:18:10
  Looks like can't hear it. Anyways guys, thank you so much
• 1:18:14
  for joining me. Like I said, this was the first
• 1:18:18
  simply Bitcoin interview style, to put you guys backstage for a
• 1:18:23
  little bit. Let me wrap up, give me two
• 1:18:25
  minutes. But yeah, guys, that was that
• 1:18:28
  was the first of, you know, these long format style
• 1:18:31
  conversations, you guys know, we have this show this this podcast
• 1:18:37
  this interview was brought to you by represent LTD.
• 1:18:40
  Some awesome Company by a Bitcoin ER he makes simply
• 1:18:44
  Bitcoin, merge Bitcoin, marriage, it's comfortable and
• 1:18:47
  stylish. I literally wear this all the
• 1:18:49
  time, around my home. Yeah guys.
• 1:18:52
  Thank you so much for, for joining me.
• 1:18:54
  For anyone who's freaking out, don't worry.
• 1:18:56
  The other show is still going to stay exactly the same.
• 1:18:59
  This is just