Latest / The SPY Trader / Q2 Relief Rally: Tech Rebounds as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Transcript

Q2 Relief Rally: Tech Rebounds as Geopolitical Tensions Ease · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome to Spy Trader!
• 0:02
  I am your host, Sunny Sideup, and it is 6 am on Wednesday, April 1st, 2026, here on the Pacific coast.
• 0:10
  I hope you have your coffee ready because we are kicking off the second quarter with a massive relief rally that is breathing some fresh air into our portfolios after a very rocky start to the year.
• 0:24
  If you look back at the first quarter, the S&P 500 was down about 4.6 percent, marking its roughest beginning since 2022.
• 0:32
  But today?
• 0:33
  Well, the mood has certainly shifted.
• 0:36
  We are seeing the S&P 500, or the SPY, jumping 2.9 percent to hit 6,528.52.
• 0:41
  The techheavy Nasdaq, the QQQ, is doing even better, surging 3.8 percent to 21,590.63, while the Dow Jones is up 2.5 percent.
• 0:50
  Even though the VIX volatility index is still a bit high at 25, it is definitely cooling down from those nervous peaks we saw recently.
• 0:59
  The big story driving this optimism is coming from the geopolitical front.
• 1:04
  President Trump announced Tuesday evening that the U.S.
• 1:07
  expects to wrap up its military involvement in the Iran conflict within two to three weeks.
• 1:13
  This news has sent Brent crude oil tumbling over 15 percent from its March highs, finally dropping below 100 dollars a barrel.
• 1:21
  While we are all still feeling the pinch at the pump with gas prices over 4 dollars a gallon, the fear of a longterm inflation spiral is finally starting to ease.
• 1:33
  On the home front, the ADP Employment Report showed private employers added 62,000 jobs in March.
• 1:39
  That is a bit more than the 40,000 expected, but it still shows the labor market is cooling down nicely.
• 1:46
  And remember, the Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent for now, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting that a rate cut is still on the table for later this year.
• 1:59
  Looking at the sectors, technology is the star of the show today.
• 2:04
  After the big AI scare of the first quarter, companies like NVIDIA jumped 5.6 percent, and Marvell Technology skyrocketed 12.8 percent after NVIDIA announced a massive 2 billion dollar investment in them.
• 2:16
  On the flip side, the energy sector, which was the big winner of the first quarter, is seeing some profittaking.
• 2:24
  As that war premium disappears, giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron are looking a bit flat today.
• 2:30
  In healthcare, Eli Lilly made waves by acquiring Centessa Pharmaceuticals, which sent Centessa stock up 44 percent.
• 2:36
  We are also keeping an eye on OpenAI, which just closed a 122 billion dollar funding round.
• 2:43
  That puts their valuation at a staggering 852 billion dollars, and everyone is whispering about a possible IPO late in 2026.
• 2:50
  Not everyone is celebrating, though; Nike issued a cautious outlook due to weakness in China, and Apple is still fighting to get back to its January highs despite record revenue.
• 3:02
  So, what is the game plan for your trades?
• 3:05
  For your core portfolio, I recommend staying neutral to slightly bullish.
• 3:09
  You can maintain your broad exposure through the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ticker VOO, or the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, ticker IVV.
• 3:18
  These are great ways to capture the largecap recovery without putting all your eggs in one basket.
• 3:25
  If you are looking for tactical moves, the AI rebound is real.
• 3:29
  The Invesco QQQ Trust is a solid way to play the megacap tech recovery, or you could look directly at NVIDIA for that AI infrastructure growth.
• 3:39
  For a bit of defensive stability, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, ticker XLV, or UnitedHealth Group are fantastic choices.
• 3:47
  They offer a mix of innovation and recession resistance.
• 3:50
  In the bond market, keep an eye on TLT, the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF.
• 3:56
  It provides a strong hedge if this economic cooling turns into a sharper slowdown.
• 4:02
  Finally, I would suggest trimming some of those overweight positions in energy, like Exxon.
• 4:07
  With Middle East tensions easing, that sector might lose its momentum.
• 4:11
  You might consider rotating that capital into stable domestic plays like Walmart or Caterpillar, which benefit from steady demand here at home.
• 4:20
  That is all for this morning's update on Spy Trader.
• 4:23
  Stay disciplined, watch the charts, and I will see you in a few hours!